(Bloomberg) — A selloff in the world’s largest tech companies weighed heavily on stocks, while Treasury yields climbed amid bets the Federal Reserve will take a more measured approach on rate cuts.
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Equities extended losses into a third straight day, with the S&P 500 breaking below 5,800. Nvidia Corp. tumbled 4%, leading megacaps lower. Apple Inc. slid 3% after a closely followed analyst said iPhone 16 orders were cut by about 10 million units from the fourth quarter through the first half of 2025. As Tesla Inc. gets ready to report its results, Wall Street will be watching for signs that slowing sales are close to a trough.
FED: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY LITTLE CHANGED IN NEARLY ALL DISTRICTS
Investors face a number of risks that could be making them less willing to jump into the market: The next three weeks capture big tech earnings, October’s payrolls report, and the US election, followed by the Fed meeting. In another sign of Wall Street’s perception of future risk, the term premium on 10-year Treasury notes — an expression of the extra yield investors demand for owning the debt rather than rolling over shorter-term securities — hit the highest since November.
“This is about price exhaustion, this is about election exhaustion, it’s about campaign exhaustion, it’s about Fed exhaustion, it’s about policy exhaustion, it’s about geopolitical exhaustion,” said Kenny Polcari at SlateStone Wealth. “It’s about how stocks are stretched and it’s about the need for stocks to retreat, test lower, shake the branches, see who falls out and then move on.”
The S&P 500 fell 1.4%. The Nasdaq 100 dropped 2.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 1.3%. Boeing Co. dropped after signaling the company’s woes will take time to fix. Qualcomm Inc. got hit as Arm Holdings Plc canceled a license that allowed the company to use Arm’s intellectual property to design chips. Texas Instruments Inc. climbed after its results.
Treasury 10-year yields rose four basis points to 4.25%. A $13 billion sale of 20-year bonds tailed at the highest yield since May. The dollar rose against all of its Group-of-10 peers, on pace for its best month since 2022. The yen hit the lowest in almost three months, reviving concern that Japan may intervene. The loonie slid after the Bank of Canada stepped up the pace of easing.
Oil dropped as US crude inventories rose and the Biden administration renewed efforts to secure a cease-fire in the Middle East. Gold declined from a record.
To Jonathan Krinsky at BTIG, equities are finally noticing the moves in bonds and the dollar. That’s a stark contrast to the moves in the last couple of weeks. The bullish narrative was that bonds were re-pricing to where they should be based on the stronger-than-anticipated economy, he noted.
“While that might be fair in the big picture, markets are always concerned with the velocity of the move rather than the overall level, and the fact that stocks didn’t flinch in the face of those moves suggested complacency,” Krinsky said. Whether this is the start of the pre-election jitters or not, we continue to see downside risk for equities broadly over the coming weeks, with an SPX pullback into the 5,500-5,650 zone a decent probability.”
Swap prices reflect less than a 100% certainty that the central bank reduces rates at each of its two remaining policy meetings this year. The bond market is also trimming bets on the degree of Fed rate reductions over the next year. Traders will get more clarity next week on how much officials are likely to ease, with the release of a key labor-market reading for October.
“The price of options to hedge against Treasury losses is soaring,” said Andrew Brenner at NatAlliance Securities. “In the US, it is about the election and potential sweep. That is what is being built into the rate structure, which is giving the vigilantes the green light. It will reverse, but it might take a severe employment number or a surprise in the election.”
“We would caution investors from reading too much into the recent rise in bond yields,” said Tiffany Wilding at Pacific Investment Management Co. “Over the past six major Fed rate-cutting cycles, the change in the 10-year Treasury yield a month after the first cut has not provided a consistent signal about the magnitude of further cuts or whether the Us economy falls into recession.”
In fact, yields rose in the month after the first cut more often than not, she noted.
“Equity market performance in the first month after the Fed starts cutting has been a similarly bad predictor of future economic performance (and market returns),” Wilding said. “Equities, more often than not, have tended to rise in the month after a cutting cycle begins, despite more significant divergence as time goes on.”
Looking at the same starkly different cycles of 1995 and 2007, equity returns (proxied by the rate-sensitive Russell 2000 of small caps) in the month after the first cut were positive in both cycles (at 4.6% and 6.9%, respectively), Wilding said. However, equity market performance was down 4.4% in the year after the 2007 cut, while it was up 21% in the year following the 1995 adjustment.
“Even with the recent move in 10-year Treasury yields, we remain bullish on US large caps,” said Nicholas Colas at DataTrek Research. “History says to discount the idea that rates will blow out because of deficit worries, at least over the near term. Instead, we see higher yields as a sign that economic growth remains robust and corporate earnings growth should continue over the coming quarters.”
“All else equal, the more rate cuts that are removed for next year the less of an outlier reading it becomes for the market to achieve 15% earnings growth,” said Ryan Grabinski at Strategas. “However, additional rates cuts do not change the challenges the S&P faces with achieving that growth rate.”
Sales growth continues to show signs of slowing, and if analysts were suggesting rate cuts would reduce interest expense, that argument is beginning to recede, Grabinski said.
“Nearly 14% EPS margins continue to look more and more difficult to achieve,” he added. “The question is when does something give.”
“The equity market is extremely fragile considering the headwinds that are lurking right around the corner,” said Jose Torres at Interactive Brokers. “Earnings expectations are buoyant for next year, which increases the importance of forward guidance rather than past results.”
When considering that valuations are around 22 times next year’s profits, any disappointment in the outlook for the bottom line can significantly impact stock market performance, he added.
Corporate Highlights:
AT&T Inc. gained more mobile subscribers in the third quarter than analysts expected, continuing the winning streak from the previous period.
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. lowered its profit outlook, as the addition of new hotels to its global system failed to offset slower travel demand.
Coca-Cola Co. dropped as investors weighed how much longer the soft-drink purveyor could raise prices without getting customers to buy more of its beverages.
Spirit Airlines Inc. jumped after the Wall Street Journal reported Frontier Group Holdings is exploring a renewed bid for the embattled carrier.
Capital One Financial Corp.’s proposed $35 billion acquisition of Discover Financial Services is being investigated by New York Attorney General Letitia James, who said the deal would have “significant impact” on consumers in the state.
Starbucks Corp. pulled its guidance for 2025, calling attention to the scope of the problems facing new Chief Executive Officer Brian Niccol.
McDonald’s Corp. is trying to contain the fallout from a severe E. coli outbreak that appears to be linked to onions in its Quarter Pounder sandwiches, which has killed one person and sickened dozens of people across the US.
Deutsche Bank AG said it will have to set aside more money than expected for souring debt, the second time this year it had to adjust its guidance.
Kering SA warned that its annual profit will fall to the lowest level since 2016 as a slump in Chinese demand for luxury goods hampers a turnaround of the French fashion group’s biggest label, Gucci.
Key events this week:
US new home sales, jobless claims, S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI, Thursday
UPS, Barclays earnings, Thursday
Fed’s Beth Hammack speaks, Thursday
US durable goods, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
The S&P 500 fell 1.4% as of 2:06 p.m. New York time
The Nasdaq 100 fell 2.1%
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.3%
The MSCI World Index fell 1.2%
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3%
The euro fell 0.3% to $1.0771
The British pound fell 0.5% to $1.2913
The Japanese yen fell 1% to 152.65 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin fell 3.2% to $65,331.83
Ether fell 6.4% to $2,464.88
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 4.25%
Germany’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 2.30%
Britain’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 4.20%
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.2% to $70.85 a barrel
Spot gold fell 1.2% to $2,714.99 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
(Bloomberg) — The world’s largest technology companies got hammered as concern about tighter US restrictions on chip sales to China spurred a selloff in the industry that has led the bull market in stocks.
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From the US to Europe and Asia, chipmakers came under heavy pressure. American powerhouses Nvidia Corp., Advanced Micro Devices Inc. and Broadcom Inc. drove a closely watched semiconductor gauge down almost 7% — the most since 2020. Across the Atlantic, ASML Holding NV tumbled over 10% even after the Dutch giant reported strong orders. A plunge in Tokyo Electron Ltd. led the Nikkei 225 Stock Average lower.
Wednesday’s action reprised a recent trend in which capitalization-weighted indexes underperformed the average stock, a consequence of weakness in the megacaps that dominate them. With firms such as Apple Inc. and Microsoft Corp. each making up 7% of the S&P 500, losses are hard to offset even when most of the index’s constituents are up — as they were today.
The Biden administration told allies it’s considering severe curbs if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML keep giving China access to advanced semiconductor technology. The US is also weighing more sanctions on specific Chinese chip firms linked to Huawei Technologies Co.
“This news on the chip front is the kind of UFO (UnForeseen Occurrence) that could indeed create the kind of selling that could be the catalyst for a tradable correction in the stock market,” said Matt Maley at Miller Tabak + Co. “Broad indices have become very overbought.”
The S&P 500 fell 1.4%. The Nasdaq 100 had its worst day since 2022. A gauge of the “Magnificent Seven” giant companies slipped 3.4%. The Russell 2000 of small firms dropped 1.1%. Wall Street’s “fear gauge” — the VIX — hit the highest since early May. In late hours, United Airlines Holdings Inc. sank on a bearish outlook.
A pair of chipmakers defied the selloff: Intel Corp. and Globalfoundries Inc. And the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed for a sixth straight day — notching another record. Financial shares outperformed, with U.S. Bancorp surging on solid results.
The bond market saw small moves. The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book showed slight economic growth and cooling inflation. The most-notable speaker on Wednesday was Governor Christopher Waller, who said the Fed is getting “closer” to cutting rates, but is not there yet. The yen led gains in major currencies, up almost 1.5%.
The Biden administration is in a tenuous position. US companies feel that restrictions on exports to China have unfairly punished them and are pushing for changes. Allies, meanwhile, see little reason to alter their policies when the presidential election is just a few months away.
“Normally, the impact of these types of headlines isn’t long-lasting, but in this case, we would note that semis have been underperforming the broader market for the last couple of weeks now,” said Bespoke Investment Group strategists. “So that’s something to watch.”
The tech underperformance is coming after a first half which saw megacaps like Nvidia, Microsoft Corp. and Alphabet Inc. propel the market higher, stretching valuations for these names and leaving them with a tougher setup for the rest of 2024.
Can the market keep powering ahead without tech?
“Much of this year’s equity gains have come from a handful of names currently under direct threat from the political arena,” said Jose Torres at Interactive Brokers. “An important question is if the rest of the market, which generally lacks thrilling tales on a relative basis, can offset the waning momentum in ‘Magnificent Seven’ stocks.”
At Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Scott Rubner says “I am not buying the dip.”
The tactical strategist bets the S&P 500 has nowhere to go from here but down. That’s because this Wednesday, July 17, has historically marked a turning point for returns on the equity benchmark, he said, citing data going back to 1928. And what follows, he says, is August — typically the worst month for outflows from passive equity and mutual funds.
Jonathan Krinsky at BTIG says the market is “nearing the end of the typical bullish window.”
Sentiment remains extremely complacent on the surveys and transactional indicators, he noted.
“While the rotation out of megacap tech into cyclicals and small-caps is encouraging, it felt a bit forced happening in such a short period of time,” Krinsky said. “Even if this is going to be a more long-lasting rotation, we likely won’t be able to see that new leadership until after we see a higher correlation correction and then see what leads coming out of that.”
Corporate Highlights:
Tesla Inc. forming an autonomous taxi platform will be the catalyst for a roughly 10-fold increase in its share price, Ark Investment Management LLC’s Cathie Wood said, echoing years of bullish predictions about a business the carmaker has yet to stand up.
Amazon.com Inc.’s marketing portal for merchants crashed Tuesday night, according to multiple Amazon sellers and consultants, fouling up one of the online retailer’s biggest sales of the year.
Morgan Stanley became the latest big Wall Street bank to tap the US investment-grade market Wednesday after reporting earnings, as strong investor demand helps lenders borrow at lower yields than would have been possible at the start of the month.
Johnson & Johnson’s second-quarter profit beat Wall Street projections on strong pharmaceutical sales, while the company cut its full-year forecast to account for a spate of recent acquisitions.
Key events this week:
ECB rate decision, Thursday
US initial jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing, Conference Board LEI, Thursday
Fed’s Mary Daly, Lorie Logan and Michelle Bowman speak, Thursday
Fed’s John Williams, Raphael Bostic speak, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
The S&P 500 fell 1.4% as of 4 p.m. New York time
The Nasdaq 100 fell 2.9%
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.6%
The MSCI World Index fell 0.9%
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3%
The euro rose 0.3% to $1.0936
The British pound rose 0.3% to $1.3008
The Japanese yen rose 1.4% to 156.19 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin fell 0.1% to $64,610.01
Ether fell 0.7% to $3,416.9
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.15%
Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.42%
Britain’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 4.08%
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.6% to $82.89 a barrel
Spot gold fell 0.4% to $2,457.97 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Cecile Gutscher and Sujata Rao.
