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  • Donald Trump wins US presidency, GOP reclaims Senate majority

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    Republican Donald Trump was elected the 47th president of the United States on Wednesday, an extraordinary comeback for a former president who refused to accept defeat four years ago, sparked a violent insurrection at the U.S. Capitol, was convicted of felony charges and survived two assassination attempts. With a win in Wisconsin, Trump cleared the 270 electoral votes needed to clinch the presidency.

    Republicans reclaimed control of the Senate, picking up seats in West Virginia and Ohio. Top House races are focused in New York and California, where Democrats are trying to claw back some of the 10 or so seats where Republicans have made surprising gains in recent years.

    Follow the AP’s Election 2024 coverage at: https://apnews.com/hub/election-2024.

    Here’s the latest:

    Slovakia’s prime minister congratulates Trump on his victory

    “We respect the choice of American people,” Prime Minister Robert Fico said at a news conference on Wednesday.

    Fico, who is known for pro-Russian views, said the result of the election is “certainly a defeat of liberal and progressivist ideas because the new American President is a conservative. We think he’ll focus on the economy issues in the United States.”

    Fico said what’s of importance is that “everybody is waiting for the first steps in regards of the war in Ukraine.”

    Fico added that Trump might reduce or halt the military aid for Ukraine or propose an immediate cease-fire to open the way for negotiations between Ukraine and Russia.

    Fico ended his state’s military aid for Ukraine.

    How are markets responding to the election results?

    Futures markets in the U.S. surged early Wednesday, with the Dow climbing 2.85% and the S&P 500 rising nearly 2%.

    Bitcoin, which many see as a winner under a Trump presidency, hit all-time highs above $75,000.

    Tesla, the company run by Trump surrogate Elon Musk, spiked 12% before the opening bell while other electric vehicle makers slumped.

    Banking stocks also moved solidly higher, with expectations of a pullback by regulators overseeing markets under Trump.

    US humanitarian group urges Trump, Congress to ‘reject policies that demonize immigrants and asylum seekers’

    The International Rescue Committee, a large humanitarian aid organization, urged the Trump administration to “continue America’s traditions of humanitarian leadership and care of the most vulnerable.”

    The New York-based nonprofit also urged the new administration and Congress to “reject policies that demonize immigrants and asylum seekers,” and noted that the U.S. program to resettle refugees has saved lives and strengthened the fabric of the United States.

    IRC is led by Britain’s former top diplomat, David Miliband, and says it provides relief services to people affected by crises in more than 40 countries.

    Barriers broken and history made in several congressional races

    With their victories, several candidates are set to be firsts.

    New Jersey Rep. Andy Kim, a Democrat, won his race to become the first Korean American elected to the Senate.

    Delaware State Rep. Sarah McBride, a Democrat, won her race to become the first openly transgender person elected to Congress. The former Obama administration official was elected to the Delaware General Assembly in 2021.

    Democrat Angela Alsobrooks won her race and is set to become Maryland’s first Black senator. Alsobrooks is currently the county executive for Maryland’s Prince George’s County, one of the most prosperous Black-majority counties in the nation.

    Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester, a Democrat from Delaware, broke barriers again, becoming the first woman and first Black person elected to the Senate from the state. Seven years ago, when she was elected to the House, she was the first woman and first Black person to represent Delaware in the House. It will be the first time that two Black women will serve simultaneously in the Senate.

    North Dakota elected its first woman to Congress. Republican Julie Fedorchak, running for the House of Representatives, won her race handily in the deep red state. She’s currently a member of the state’s public service commission.

    Bernie Moreno, a Republican from Ohio,defeated incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown to be the first Latino from the state elected to the Senate.

    Bitcoin hits new high as investors bet Trump’s victory will benefit cryptocurrencies

    Bitcoin jumped nearly 8% to a record $75,345.00 in early trading on Wednesday, before falling back and was recently trading at around $73,700.00.

    Trump was previously a crypto skeptic but changed his mind and embraced cryptocurrencies ahead of the election.

    He pledged to make America “the crypto capital of the planet” and create a “strategic reserve” of bitcoin. His campaign accepted donations in cryptocurrency and he courted crypto fans at a bitcoin conference in July.

    He also launched World Liberty Financial, a new venture with family members to trade cryptocurrencies.

    Abortion proposals win in 7 states

    Despite major losses for Democrats in the Senate and White House, the party’s central campaign issue surrounding protecting reproductive rights fared much better across the country as abortion rights advocates won on measures in seven states.

    The last state to pass such a measure by early Wednesday was Montana, where abortion rights advocates pushed to enshrine abortion rights until fetal viability into the state constitution as a safeguard against future rollbacks. Though there’s no defined time frame, doctors say viability is sometime after 21 weeks.

    In three others — Florida, Nebraska and South Dakota — voters rejected measures that would have created a constitutional right to abortion.

    Montana enshrines abortion rights

    Montana voters chose to protect the right to an abortion in their state constitution.

    The ballot initiative sought to enshrine a 1999 Montana Supreme Court ruling that said the constitutional right to privacy protects the right to a pre-viability abortion by a provider of the patient’s choice. Though there’s no defined time frame, doctors say viability is sometime after 21 weeks.

    The Associated Press declared the amendment was approved at 6:01 a.m. EST Wednesday.

    Republican Ryan Zinke wins reelection to U.S. House in Montana’s 1st Congressional District

    Republican Rep. Ryan Zinke won reelection to a U.S. House seat representing Montana on Wednesday.

    Zinke will serve a second term in the western Montana district, which was drawn after the state received an additional congressional seat from the 2020 census. Zinke faced a rematch against Democrat Monica Tranel, who fell a few points short of winning the seat in 2022. Zinke was U.S. interior secretary in the Trump administration for nearly two years before resigning while facing several ethics investigations. Zinke served as Montana’s lone U.S. House member from 2015 through early 2017, when he resigned to become interior secretary. The Associated Press declared Zinke the winner at 6:28 a.m. EST.

    Republican Tim Sheehy wins election to U.S. Senate from Montana, beating incumbent Jon Tester

    Republican Tim Sheehy won the U.S. Senate seat in Montana on Wednesday, defeating three-term incumbent Jon Tester and flipping a closely watched Senate seat.

    Tester was the only Democrat holding statewide office in Montana, which has voted for the Republican candidate in every presidential contest since 1992. Sheehy, a former U.S. Navy SEAL, ran as a Trump-supporting conservative in a state where the president-elect is immensely popular. The Associated Press declared Sheehy the winner at 6:26 a.m. EST.

    In Kamala Harris’ ancestral village, disappointment

    There was a sense of disappointment in Thulasendrapuram, a tiny village in southern India, where Kamala Harris’ mother’s family has ancestral ties and where people were rooting for the Democratic nominee for president.

    Residents in this village, who were keenly following the election results on their smartphones, were left silent as initial enthusiasm faded, even before the presidential race call, but many said they were proud that she put up a good fight. The villagers were hoping for a Harris victory and had Tuesday held special Hindu prayers for her at a local temple where Harris’ name is engraved in a list of donors. Some were also planning to blast off fireworks and distribute sweets had she won.

    “We are sad about it. But what can we do? It was in the hands of the voters of that country. They made Trump win. We can only wish Trump well for his victory,” said J. Sudhakar.

    As results became clearer, a gaggle of reporters that was stationed outside the village temple also quickly scattered away. The village — site of a brief media spectacle and euphoria since Tuesday — became almost deserted.

    FIFA’s president congratulates Trump

    “We will have a great FIFA World Cup and a great FIFA Club World Cup in the United States of America! Football Unites the World” FIFA president Gianni Infantino wrote on his Instagram account in a message of congratulations to Trump.

    Infantino had tried to build close ties to the first Trump administration, making at least two visits to the White House and joining then-President Trump at a dinner event in Davos, Switzerland during the World Economic Forum in January 2020.

    The United States will host most of the games at the 2026 World Cup in men’s soccer.

    Investors react to Trump’s victory in US election by buying on the German stock market

    The Dax rose significantly by 1.5% to 19,544 points in early Xetra trading, German news agency dpa agency reported.

    Robert Halver, Head of Capital Market Analysis at Baader Bank said that “since Donald Trump stands for the economy, it can be assumed that stock markets around the world will go up. With one exception: China, because he (Donald Trump) will definitely impose tariffs at least on China. That will certainly make life difficult for the Chinese.”

    “The nice thing is that European stocks, German stocks and export stocks can also benefit. Because we are still so well positioned in the industrial sector that we are helping America to become big again in the industrial sector, so to speak,” he added.

    No info on whether Putin will congratulate Trump, Kremlin says

    Ahead of the presidential race call, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said he had no information on whether Russian President Vladimir Putin plans to congratulate Donald Trump but emphasized that Moscow views the U.S. as an “unfriendly” country.

    Peskov reaffirmed the Kremlin’s claim that the U.S. support for Ukraine amounted to its involvement in the conflict, telling reporters: “Let’s not forget that we are talking about the unfriendly country that is both directly and indirectly involved in a war against our state.”

    Asked if Putin’s failure to congratulate Trump could hurt ties, Peskov responded that Russia-U.S. relations already are at the “lowest point in history,” adding that it will be up to the new U.S. leadership to change the situation. He noted Putin’s statements about Moscow’s readiness for a “constructive dialogue based on justice, equality and readiness to take mutual concerns into account.”

    Peskov noted Trump’s campaign statements about his intention to end wars, saying that “those were important statements, but now after the victory, while getting ready to enter the Oval Office or entering the Oval Office, statements could sometimes change.”

    Control of the US House is still up for grabs

    Republicans have taken the White House and Senate, but the House is still very much in play.

    With nearly 60 House elections still undecided, either party could gain control of the chamber. For Democrats, a House majority is the last hope of gaining a toehold in Washington and putting a check on Donald Trump’s power. Yet if Republicans win a House majority, they’ll be able to implement Trump’s agenda with more ease, including extending tax cuts, funding hardline border measures and dismantling parts of the federal government.

    Still, it might take some time before House control is decided. Neither party so far has a convincing advantage in the tally of key House races. There are tight races all over the country, including many in slow-counting California.

    Trump is elected the 47th president

    Donald Trump was elected the 47th president of the United States on Wednesday, an extraordinary comeback for a former president who refused to accept defeat four years ago, sparked a violent insurrection at the U.S. Capitol, was convicted of felony charges and survived two assassination attempts.

    With a win in Wisconsin, Trump cleared the 270 electoral votes needed to clinch the presidency.

    The victory validates his bare-knuckle approach to politics. He attacked his Democratic rival, Kamala Harris, in deeply personal — often misogynistic and racist — terms as he pushed an apocalyptic picture of a country overrun by violent migrants.

    The coarse rhetoric, paired with an image of hypermasculinity, resonated with angry voters — particularly men — in a deeply polarized nation. As president, he’s vowed to pursue an agenda centered on dramatically reshaping the federal government and retribution against his perceived enemies.

    Republican Mike Lawler wins reelection to U.S. House in New York’s 17th Congressional District

    Republican Rep. Mike Lawler won reelection to a U.S. House seat representing New York on Wednesday.

    Lawler is one of several Republicans who flipped traditionally Democratic New York districts in 2022. The 17th District contains the northern part of wealthy Westchester County and extends north and west to include suburban Rockland County and the Hudson Valley’s Putnam County. He defeated former Democratic Rep. Mondaire Jones, who lost his seat after redistricting in 2022. The Associated Press declared Lawler the winner at 5:30 a.m. EST.

    Race to control the House intensifies with Michigan flip

    Republicans have flipped a House seat that was previously held by Democrats, giving them a valuable pickup in a frenzied race for House control.

    At this point, practically every seat matters when it comes to building a House majority. In Michigan’s 7th district, Republican Tom Barrett picked up a seat that Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin vacated to run for U.S. Senate. Barrett, a former state senator, defeated another former state lawmaker, Democrat Curtis Hertel.

    On the campaign trail, Barrett didn’t back away from his record of supporting abortion restrictions in the statehouse, but he also described abortion access as a settled issue in Michigan.

    Zelenskyy says he appreciates Trump’s ‘peace through strength’ mentality

    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says he appreciates Trump’s commitment to “peace through strength” as the Republican presidential nominee closes in on the electoral votes needed to win the White House.

    “I recall our great meeting with President Trump back in September, when we discussed in detail the Ukraine-U.S. strategic partnership, the Victory Plan, and ways to put an end to Russian aggression against Ukraine,” said Zelenskyy on X. Zelenskyy said that Ukraine is interested “in developing mutually beneficial political and economic cooperation that will benefit both of our nations.”

    “We look forward to an era of a strong United States of America under President Trump’s decisive leadership,” said Zelenskyy.

    “I appreciate President Trump’s commitment to the ‘peace through strength’ approach in global affairs. This is exactly the principle that can practically bring just peace in Ukraine closer. I am hopeful that we will put it into action together,” he said.

    European Commission president says she’s looking forward to working with Trump

    The European Union’s top official says she’s looking forward to working with Trump again as the former president is on the cusp of victory in the U.S. presidential race.

    European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that the E.U. and U.S. “are more than just allies. We are bound by a true partnership between our people, uniting 800 million citizens.”

    “Let us work together on a transatlantic partnership that continues to deliver for our citizens. Millions of jobs and billions in trade and investment on each side of the Atlantic depend on the dynamism and stability of our economic relationship,” she said in a statement.

    The tariffs that Trump slapped on steel and aluminum exports during his last term roiled the bloc’s economy.

    NATO leader looks forward to working with Trump

    NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte says he looks forward to working with Trump “to advance peace through strength” as the former president closes in on the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House.

    “We face a growing number of challenges globally, from a more aggressive Russia, to terrorism, to strategic competition with China, as well the increasing alignment of China, Russia, North Korea and Iran,” Rutte said.

    “Working together through NATO helps to deter aggression, protect our collective security and support our economies,” he added.

    Rutte also praised Trump for his work during his first term to persuade U.S. allies in NATO to ramp up defense spending.

    He noted that around two-thirds of the 32 NATO allies are due to meet the organization’s main defense spending target this year.

    World leaders offer their congratulations to Trump

    The AP’s current count has Trump three electoral votes shy of winning the White House, though he is leading in key battleground states.

    “Congratulations on history’s greatest comeback!” wrote Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on X. “Your historic return to the White House offers a new beginning for America and a powerful recommitment to the great alliance between Israel and America.”

    French President Emmanuel Macron posted on X: “Ready to work together as we were able to do during four years. With your convictions and mine. In respect and ambition. For more peace and prosperity.”

    Trump, a longtime source of division, calls on country to unite in election night speech

    Trump, someone whose political career has been defined by division and acrimony, told the audience at his election night party early on Wednesday that it was “time to unite” as a country.

    “It’s time to put the divisions of the past four years behind us,” Trump said. “It’s time to unite.”

    “We have to put our country first for at least a period of time,” he added. “We have to fix it.”

    Trump speaks at election party flanked by family, friends and top political supporters

    Most of the important people in Trump’s personal and political life have joined him on stage in West Palm Beach, Florida.

    Former first lady Melania Trump stood near her husband and was joined by Barron, the former president’s youngest son. Trump’s older children, Don Jr., Eric, Ivanka and Tiffany, all joined their father on stage, too.

    Trump’s top political minds, including top campaign advisers Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita, joined Trump on stage. And his political allies were on stage, too, including House Speaker Mike Johnson.

    Trump also celebrated a few celebrities in the audience and on stage. Dana White, the CEO of UFC, was on stage with Trump, and the former president called golfer Bryson DeChambeau on stage. Trump also shouted out Elon Musk, the billionaire owner of X, who has become one of his most high-profile supporters. “We have a new star. A star is born: Elon,” Trump said.

    Trump hails GOP’s congressional wins

    Donald Trump made sure to recognize GOP wins in down ballot races in his speech in the early morning Wednesday.

    “The number of victories in the senate was absolutely incredible,” Trump said.

    Republicans have so far won 51 seats, giving them a majority. But Montana, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Nevada have not been called, and it’s possible Republicans could pick up more seats.

    Trump also said he expected Republicans to hold the House and complimented House Speaker Mike Johnson. The House, however, is still up for grabs.

    There are over 70 House races across the country that have not been called, and neither party has a convincing edge in the tally of House races.

    Trump vows in his election night speech to fight ‘for your family and your future’

    He promised that he would “not rest until we have delivered the strong safe and prosperous America.”

    “Every single day,” Trump said, “I will be fighting for you with every breath in my body.”

    Donald Trump has taken the stage

    The AP’s current count has him at 267 of the 270 electoral votes he needs to win the White House. He is leading in key races left to be called, including Michigan and Wisconsin.

    Pennsylvania puts Trump three electoral votes short of the presidential threshold

    Trump’s victory in Pennsylvania has put him three electoral votes short of winning the presidency. He could win the White House by capturing Alaska or any remaining swing state.

    Hugs, calls and celebration at Trump’s watch party

    Trump supporters gathered at his election night watch party were hugging one another, making calls, jumping up and down, and throwing their MAGA hats in the air every chance they got to celebrate as results continued to trickle in.

    Guests are still arriving at the convention center in West Palm Beach.

    Democrats flip another House seat in New York

    The pickups for House Democrats have mostly come from New York so far as the party flipped its second seat in the state.

    Democrat Josh Riley defeated Republican Rep. Mark Molinaro in a district that spans across the center of the state. Democrats earlier flipped a seat held by Rep. Brandon Williams.

    While a House majority is still up for grabs, the victories will buoy Democrats’ hopes, especially in House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries’ home state.

    Nevada polls close nearly 3 hours later

    Polls closed in Nevada nearly three hours late after voters waited in long lines to cast ballots, the state’s top election official said, and initial election results began to be posted just before 10 p.m. PST.

    Polls had been scheduled to close at 7 p.m., but state law allows anyone in line at that time to cast a ballot.

    Secretary of State Cisco Aguilar acknowledged Nevada’s position as an electoral battleground and promised to keep updating results as the counties receive “and cure” additional ballots.

    Mailed ballots are accepted and counted until Saturday, and thousands of voters whose ballots were set aside to allow for signature verification, or “curing,” have until 5 p.m. Nov. 12 to validate their vote with election officials.

    Aguilar, a Democrat, called Nevada’s elections “safe, secure and transparent” and said he was proud of reports of high voter turnout.

    Robert F. Kennedy Jr. joins Trump watch party

    The former presidential candidate has arrived at the Palm Beach Convention Center, entering and walking briskly as he made his way near the stage among crowds of supporters.

    Trump has said he will play a role when it comes to health policy but has not specified what that would be. Kennedy, who launched his own presidential bid as an independent before dropping out of the race and endorsing Trump, joined him at several rallies in the last stretch of the campaign.

    Republicans celebrate early turnout among Black and Hispanic voters

    As the election stretched into the early hours of Wednesday, Republicans — seeing a map trending positively for their party — began to point to a shift in demographic support among key voting groups who often lean Democrat.

    Preliminary AP VoteCast data suggested a shift among Black and Latino voters, who appeared slightly less likely to support Harris than they were to back Biden four years ago. About 8 in 10 Black voters backed Harris, down from the roughly 9 in 10 who backed Biden. More than half of Hispanic voters supported Harris, but that was down slightly from the roughly 6 in 10 who backed Biden in 2020. Trump’s support among those groups appeared to rise slightly compared to 2020.

    Republican Sen. Marco Rubio told AP at Trump’s election watch party in West Palm Beach, Florida, that he’s excited for the exit polling in states like Pennsylvania and Georgia, where Republicans are already seeing overperformance compared to this time in the election in 2020.

    “I’m just really excited not just because I think it’s going to be a victory but about how we won,” the Florida lawmaker said.

    There are serious 2016 echoes in Harris’ 2024 election night

    Forgive Democrats if they are having a bit of déjà vu.

    There are noticeable similarities between then-Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton’s election night in 2016 and the one that Harris had planned for tonight at Howard University.

    Neither Clinton nor Harris, appeared at their election night party, despite both heading into Election Day believing they were about to defeat Donald Trump.

    Both sent top aides to inform the demoralized audience that the woman would not speak. And there were noticeable similarities between what each man said.

    “We still have votes to count. We still have states that have not been called yet. We will continue overnight to fight to make sure that every vote is counted,” Cedric Richmond, Harris’ campaign co-chair, told the audience Tuesday. “So you won’t hear from the vice president tonight, but you will hear from her tomorrow.”

    “We’re still counting votes,” John Podesta, Clinton’s campaign chairman, said in 2016. “And every vote should count. Several states are too close to call. So we’re not going to have anything more to say tonight.”

    Even the mood of the events — and the trajectory they took over the course of the night — was similar. The vibe at Clinton’s event at Javits Center started jubilantly, with people dancing, smiling and eager to make history — the campaign had even planned to launch reflective confetti in the air when Clinton won to resemble a glass ceiling shattering. The same was true for Harris, with the event resembling a dance party on the campus of the Democrat’s alma mater.

    By the time Podesta and Richmond had taken the stage, the party had stopped, people had left, and those who remained looked forlorn.

    Harris’ path to the White House is growing less forgiving

    Harris still has a path to the White House through the Northern battleground states, but the map is getting less forgiving.

    Harris’ campaign has long said her surest way to 270 electoral votes was through Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, states Trump won in 2016 and Biden captured narrowly in 2020.

    Harris cannot lose Pennsylvania and reach 270 electoral votes. However, she can lose pieces of the blue wall — so named for its longtime reputation as a Democratic firewall — and still reach 270.

    If she loses Michigan, she can make it up by winning Arizona and Nevada. She can lose Wisconsin and make up for it with Arizona.

    But the map has surely shrunk for Harris, who cannot lose more than one in the three-state northern arc.

    Trump campaign comments on Harris’ watch party mood

    A Trump campaign spokesperson is weighing in as the mood has shifted over at Harris’ watch party.

    “Sounds like the joy has left the building,” posted Karoline Leavitt, a campaign spokeswoman on X.

    The Harris campaign turned off its projected CNN broadcasts at its election night watch party at Howard University as midnight approached. And some Harris supporters began leaving the event.

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    By The Associated Press

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  • Will a Generic Republican Beat Tester and Flip the Senate?

    Will a Generic Republican Beat Tester and Flip the Senate?

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    The novice versus the old pro.
    Photo: Ben Allan Smith/AP Photo

    Republicans in Washington went to a lot of trouble to recruit Tim Sheehy to run for the U.S. Senate in Montana against veteran Democrat Jon Tester. They were reportedly dazzled by the young and photogenic politician’s biography, which included serving in Afghanistan as a decorated Navy SEAL and launching a very successful aerial firefighting business after moving from Minnesota to Montana ten years ago. He was close to congressman and former Interior secretary Ryan Zinke, but the real motive for Sheehy’s recruitment was to sideline Zinke’s U.S. House colleague Matt Rosendale, a cranky arch-conservative who had lost to Tester in 2018. It was a personal priority for Montana’s other senator, Steve Daines, who chairs the GOP’s Senate campaign committee.

    It all came together, and when it looked like Rosendale would ignore all the invitations to go away and run for the Senate anyway, Donald Trump himself big-footed him out of the race with a quick endorsement of Sheehy. The young challenger has been given almost unlimited financial support; an estimated $50 million has been ponied up by pro-Sheehy super-PACs in what is easily going to be the most expensive per-vote Senate race ever.

    The focus on Montana isn’t surprising; it’s the most likely tipping-point state for Republicans to flip control of the Senate. Right now Democrats control the chamber by a 51-49 margin, but the seat of retiring West Virginia Democratic senator Joe Manchin is universally expected to go to a Republican in November. And while there are other potentially vulnerable Democratic senators running this year, only Tester and Ohio’s Sherrod Brown are from states Trump is almost certain to win handily. Since Montana went for Trump by 16 points in 2020 and by 20 points in 2016, it’s Tester who has the biggest bull’s-eye painted on his back. With ticket splitting steadily declining in this era of partisan polarization, that’s a big deficit for the Democrat to overcome.

    Sure enough, the FiveThirtyEight polling averages show Trump leading Kamala Harris in Montana by nearly 17 points. And so it’s unsurprising that the same averages show Tim Sheehy with a four-point lead over Tester. The trend lines are pretty unmistakable. RMG Research released a poll in mid-August showing Tester leading 49 to 44 percent; the same firm’s September poll showed Sheehy leading 50 to 43 percent.

    So is Sheehy fulfilling his wonder-boy promise? That’s debatable. His rags-to-riches story took a bit of a hit when it was disclosed he had grown up in a multimillion-dollar lakeside home in Minnesota, and that his Montana business had received some big subsidies from his family’s wealth. More importantly, recordings recently emerged of the candidate making derogatory comments about Native Americans — in a state where Native Americans make up 6 percent of the population.

    Sheehy has allowed that these remarks were “insensitive,” but when challenged by Tester during a debate to apologize, he responded: “Will you apologize for opening the border?”

    As Election Day approaches, there are growing signs that Sheehy is limiting his exposure to any uncontrolled environment where he might make a mistake, as CNN reports:

    Sheehy rarely grants interviews to local or national press, while his campaign doesn’t discuss his schedule or provide information about his events, which tend to be closed affairs … [He’s] running in a state that has seen a surge of new residents, which political observers here believe benefits the GOP. Having an “R” next to his name could be enough to unseat Tester and flip the Senate — absent any major missteps.

    So the prize GOP recruit of the 2024 Senate class is winding up his campaign hiding out and basically running as a generic Republican. The party might as well have let Matt Rosendale have the nomination, given him a large fortune for campaign ads, and told him to paint by the numbers until voters voted.

    It would serve Republican wire-pullers right if Tester defied the odds as he has done before (in 2012, he won by running seven points ahead of Barack Obama). He’s done what he can to distance himself from the national ticket and is a well-known commodity in his state, unlike Sheehy, the shiny new toy that has developed a bit of tarnish.

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    Ed Kilgore

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  • Montana’s hot housing market heats up critical Senate race

    Montana’s hot housing market heats up critical Senate race

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    MISSOULA, Mont. — In a subdivision near the northern edge of town, a number of condos and duplexes have popped up in the past three years.

    It’s part of a larger effort, including new zoning laws, to help provide affordable housing to Montanans who have found themselves priced out of the market, said DJ Smith, president of the Montana Association of Realtors.

    “For Montanans, it’s been harder and harder to find a home that meets their needs and is affordable,” he said.

    An influx of out-of-state residents relocating to the Big Sky state has sent demand soaring, while a shortage of labor keeps housing supply limited. The result is not only more condos and duplexes, but a hot-button issue in a Senate race that could ultimately decide who controls the chamber.

    While some Democrats are sweating it out in close races across the country, no incumbent has a harder re-election than Democratic Sen. Jon Tester, who will need to win a state that Trump won by 16 percentage points in 2020.

    Political forecaster Cook Political Report recently moved the race from a toss-up to leaning Republican, and the most recent poll from the AARP found Sheehy had an 8-point lead, just within the margin of error.

    Tester has made housing a cornerstone of his campaign — specifically how to help Montanans who have been priced out as more people have moved to the state, driving up housing prices.

    “We’re seeing a lot of folks come into the state, rich folks, who want to try to buy our state, to change it into something it’s not,” Tester said at a June 9 debate hosted by the Montana Broadcasters Association.

    Tim Sheehy, the Republican nominee, is a former Navy SEAL who founded an aerial firefighting company in Montana. He blames high housing costs on inflation, and blames inflation on laws backed by President Joe Biden and voted on by Tester.

    “Our biggest challenge growing our company was convincing folks to come to Montana and absorb these crazy housing costs,” Sheehy said during the debate. “They’re a direct result of the policies coming out of the Biden administration.”

    A new home for sale in Missoula, Montana, where housing prices have jumped in recent years on Sept. 4, 2024.

    CNBC

    Inflation and housing costs are a top concern across the country, but few places are worse than Montana when it comes to affordability. The National Association of Realtors rated Montana the least affordable state for home buyers. Housing prices in the state have increased 66% in the past four years, according to the U.S. Federal Housing Industry Price Index – faster than the 50% increase nationally.  

    Smith said some Montanans are no longer able to afford the communities they grew up in as those moving to the state have sold their homes in more expensive parts of the country and are able to buy in cash.

    The median income for a household in Montana is $67,631, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. That means the median home price in Missoula, $568,377, according to the Missoula Organization of Realtors, is high for the average Montanan, but it’s inviting for those looking to leave higher-cost states for Montana’s mountains, national parks and ample space.

    “People in Colorado, California, they would sell their homes for over a million dollars and have a lot of equity to purchase here in Montana,” Smith said. “That’s led to a record number of 30% of our homes last year being bought with cash.”

    Missoula builder Andrew Weigand, owner of Butler Creek Development, said prices are also affected by a labor shortage in the state. Subcontractors, such as plumbers and electricians, are in short supply and costs are higher as a result, he said.

    “If you have a pool of three or four subcontractors to use, and not 30 or 40, you’re going to have not as competitive a market as you do in other areas of the nation,” he said.

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    Weigand said he is worried the issue will only get worse because many subcontractors are getting older and there are fewer people to replace them.

    “A lot of our trades are aging. They’ve been doing it for 20 [or] 30 years, and they’re looking at retirement,” he said. “There’s not a whole lot of … young professionals or young people that are interested in performing those jobs to fulfill that need.”

    Tester has several proposals targeted at helping Montanans who are struggling to afford a home. Those include grants to expand housing and help with home repairs. He has also proposed a tax credit to incentivize the owners of mobile home parks to sell their property to coalitions of Montana residents rather than to developers who could use the land to build more expensive homes.

    While Sheehy has blamed high housing prices on inflation, during the June 9 debate he called for expanding trade programs in the state to help with the shortage of contractors needed to build homes.

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  • Donald Trump headlines Montana rally after plane was diverted but landed safely

    Donald Trump headlines Montana rally after plane was diverted but landed safely

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    BOZEMAN, Mont. – Donald Trump traveled to Montana for a Friday night rally intended to drum up support for ousting the state’s Democratic senator, but the former president’s plane first had to divert to an airport on the other side of the Rocky Mountains because of a mechanical issue, according to airport staff.

    Trump’s plane was en route to Bozeman, Montana, when it was diverted Friday afternoon to Billings, 142 miles to the east, according to Jenny Mockel, administrative assistant at Billings Logan International Airport. Trump continued to Bozeman via private jet.

    The former president came to Montana hoping to remedy some unfinished business from 2018, when he campaigned repeatedly in Big Sky Country in a failed bid to oust incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Tester. On Friday, Trump ripped into the three-term senator, mocking him for being overweight and for insinuating he sometimes sided with the former president.

    “He voted to impeach me — that guy voted to impeach me,” Trump said of Tester, whom he called a “slob” with “the biggest stomach I’ve ever seen.”

    Trump also invited to the stage Texas Rep. Ronny Jackson, his former White House physician, to further slam Montana’s senior senator. Tester sank Jackson’s nomination to be Trump’s Veterans Affairs secretary, alleging the doctor drank and used prescription drugs while on duty.

    Tester has tried to convince voters he’s aligned with Trump on many issues, mirroring his successful strategy from six years ago. While that worked in a non-presidential election year, it faces a more critical test this fall with Tester’s opponent, former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy, trying to link the three-term incumbent to Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris.

    Trump kicked off his rally about 90 minutes behind schedule and immediately began lacing into Tester. “We are going to defeat radical left Democrat Jon Tester, he’s terrible,” Trump said. “We’re going to evict crazy Kamala,” he continued, workshopping a nickname on his new rival.

    Harris has benefitted nationally from a burst of enthusiasm among core Democratic constituencies, who coalesced quickly around her after President Joe Biden withdrew from the campaign last month. She’s drawn big crowds in swing states, touring this week with Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, her choice to be her vice presidential nominee.

    Trump’s only rally this week, meanwhile, was in a state he won by 16 percentage points four years ago rather than a November battleground. Facing new pressure in the race from a candidate with surging enthusiasm, Trump on Thursday called questions about his lack of swing state stops “stupid.”

    “I don’t have to go there because I’m leading those states,” he said. “I’m going because I want to help senators and congressmen get elected.”

    He will add on fundraising stops in Wyoming and Colorado.

    Trump could be decisive in Montana’s Senate race

    Friday’s rally at Montana State University drew thousands of GOP supporters. Yet the former president’s bigger impact could be simply having his name above Sheehy’s on the ballot in November, said University of Montana political analyst Rob Saldin.

    “There is a segment of the electorate that will turn out when Trump is on the ticket,” Saldin said. And that could benefit Sheehy, a Trump supporter and newcomer to politics who made a fortune off an aerial firefighting business.

    Republicans have been on a roll in Montana for more than a decade and now hold every statewide office except for Tester’s.

    Tester won each of his previous Senate contests by a narrow margin, casting himself as a plainspoken farmer who builds personal connections with people in Montana and is willing to break with his party on issues that matter to them. He’s also become a prolific fundraiser.

    The race has drawn national attention with Democrats clinging to a razor-thin majority in the Senate and defending far more seats than the GOP this year. Tester is considered among the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents.

    For him to win, large numbers of Trump supporters would have to vote a split ticket and get behind the Democratic senator.

    Trump’s drive to oust Tester traces back to the lawmaker’s work in 2018 as chairman of the Senate Committee on Veterans’ Affairs. Tester revealed past misconduct by Trump’s personal physician, Ronny Jackson, that sank Jackson’s nomination to lead the Veterans Affairs Department.

    Then-President Trump took the matter personally and came to Montana four times to campaign for Republican Matt Rosendale, who was then the state auditor. Rosendale lost by 3 percentage points.

    Tester has positioned himself apart from national Democrats

    Before Trump’s latest visit, Tester has sought to insulate himself against charges that he’s part of the Democratic establishment by rolling out the names of Republicans who support him, including former Montana Gov. Marc Racicot. His campaign highlighted more than 20 pieces of legislation, many dealing with veterans’ issues, that Tester sponsored and Trump signed.

    Tester also was the sole Democratic delegate from Montana to withhold a vote backing Harris as the party’s presidential candidate in the wake of Biden’s withdrawal. And when the Democratic National Convention takes place later this month in Chicago, Tester will be back in Montana “farming and meeting face to face with Montanans,” campaign spokesperson Harry Child said.

    The last time Tester attended the Democratic National Convention was in 2008. That’s also the last time a Democratic presidential candidate came anywhere near winning Montana, with President Barack Obama losing by just over 2 percentage points.

    On Friday, in an interview as he waited for the Trump rally to start, Sheehy dismissed the idea that Tester can survive Montana’s swing to the right. “Jon Tester is by 95%-plus in lockstep with the Biden-Harris agenda,” Sheehy said. “So I don’t think his attempt to message himself as a moderate is going to work.”

    A similar situation is developing in Ohio, where three-term Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown faces a tough race in a state expected to vote for Trump.

    Harris visited Ohio when the two were Senate colleagues to raise money for Brown’s 2018 campaign, but Brown has said he has no plans to campaign with her this year. Like Tester, Brown has highlighted legislation he worked on that Trump signed into law.

    Friday’s rally takes place in Gallatin County, which Tester has become increasingly reliant on over the course of his political career.

    He lost the county in his first Senate race, in 2006, but his support has since grown. A substantial margin of victory in Gallatin in 2018 helped push him ahead of Rosendale.

    Republican Don Seifert, a former Gallatin County commissioner, said he voted for Tester that year and plans to do so again this year.

    Seifert backed Trump in 2016 and said he has continued to support other Republicans, including Montana Gov. Greg Gianforte and Sen. Steve Daines.

    “Montanans tend to vote for the person over the party,” Seifert said. “For the state of Montana, Jon is the one that can do what we need.”

    But Sheehy says Tester has lost touch with his home state and fallen into step with Democrats in Washington. The Republican said in a message this week to supporters that Tester was “responsible for the rise of Kamala Harris” because he served as chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee from 2015 to 2017, when she was elected to the Senate from California.

    Tester has outraised Sheehy by more than three-to-one in campaign donations reported to the Federal Election Commission. However, outside groups supporting Sheehy have helped the Republican make up much of that gap. Spending in the race is on track to exceed $200 million as advertisements from the two sides saturate Montana’s airwaves.

    __

    Associated Press reporters Amy Beth Hanson in Helena, Montana, and Julie Smyth in Columbus, Ohio, contributed to this report.

    Copyright 2024 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without permission.

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  • Montana US Sen. Jon Tester to face GOP newcomer Tim Sheehy in election key to Senate control

    Montana US Sen. Jon Tester to face GOP newcomer Tim Sheehy in election key to Senate control

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    HELENA, Mont. – Three-term incumbent Democrat Sen. Jon Tester and Republican newcomer Tim Sheehy cruised to victory in Montana’s primary election Tuesday, setting up a contentious November election that could tip the balance of power in the closely divided U.S. Senate.

    Sheehy is a former Navy SEAL backed by former President Donald Trump, Gov. Greg Gianforte and the Republican establishment.

    Beyond the race’s national implications, it offers Republicans a chance to complete their lock on higher offices in Montana after years of picking off Democratic elected officials in what was once a more politically diverse state.

    A loss by Tester, who has survived three close elections even as the national political landscape shifted, would oust the final Democrat still holding high office in Montana.

    THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. AP’s earlier story follows below.

    HELENA, Mont. (AP) — Montana voters in Tuesday’s primary election will select a Republican challenger to three-term incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Tester and candidates for an open U.S. House seat being vacated by far-right conservative Rep. Matt Rosendale.

    Republicans have dominated recent Montana elections, leaving Tester increasingly vulnerable. They need to pick up just a couple seats in November to take control of the U.S. Senate.

    Donald Trump’s name appeared on the ballot Tuesday for the first time since his conviction on felony crimes, as a handful of states held the last Republican presidential primary contests of 2024.

    In the Senate race in Montana, first-time candidate and former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy has the support of the Republican Party establishment, including former President Trump and Montana Gov. Greg Gianforte.

    The Belgrade businessman has sunk more than $2 million of his money into the race and is backed by major GOP donors. He faces two lesser known opponents.

    On the Democratic side, Tester cruised to victory against a sole primary opponent who had not reported raising or spending any campaign money.

    Voter Chris Munson said after casting his ballot in Billings that he’s an independent but voted in the Republican primary because, “It’s the only one that seems to matter in this state.”

    Munson, 38, listed inflation and the border as his top policy issues. He expressed reservations about Sheehy, who came to the state a decade ago and is still considered an outsider in Montana, but said he had not yet decided about Tester.

    Republican Stephen Reisinger, 54, picked former Montana Secretary of State Brad Johnson over Sheehy in Tuesday’s primary.

    Reisinger — an Army veteran from Billings who works as a diesel mechanic in the oil fields — cited Sheehy’s acknowledgment that he lied about a bullet wound. Sheehy told a park ranger in 2015 that he was wounded when his personal handgun discharged accidentally in Glacier National Park, but has since said he was wounded in Afghanistan in 2012 and lied to the ranger.

    Reisinger said he would push past his concerns about Sheehy lying and support the Republican if he advances to challenge Tester.

    “I’d have to go with Sheehy,” he said.

    The Tester and Sheehy campaigns already have been pounding each other on the airwaves in an advertising blitz that’s expected to intensify as November approaches.

    Tester — a former state Senate president who’s considered a moderate in Washington — has emphasized his work for veterans and his roots as a third-generation farmer in central Montana. He’s also played up concerns that wealthy outsiders such as Sheehy are buying up property and driving housing prices and taxes higher.

    Sheehy has sought to saddle Tester with public dissatisfaction over President Joe Biden’s struggles to stem illegal immigration on the southern border. And he’s appealing to supporters of Trump, who won Montana by 16 percentage points in 2020, by claiming in a social media post Monday without providing specifics that Tester supported the former president’s conviction last week in a New York hush money case.

    Tester won his three previous Senate races by slim margins.

    The open U.S. House seat in solidly Republican, largely rural eastern Montana features a seven-way GOP contest.

    Contenders include former six-term former U.S. Rep. Denny Rehberg, state Auditor Troy Downing and state education Superintendent Elsie Arntzen.

    Rehberg emerged from retirement and joined the race late after Rosendale launched a short-lived U.S. Senate campaign.

    Downing was endorsed by Trump on Monday. He outraised the other primary candidates and touted his experience as auditor and running businesses in the private sector.

    Arntzen, among the most conservative of the candidates, has leaned heavily into cultural issues such as her opposition to transgender girls participating in girls’ athletics.

    Four candidates are seeking the Democratic nomination in the district. The winner will face long odds in November.

    The state’s western House district, which includes the cities of Bozeman, Missoula and Butte, is expected to be more competitive in the general election.

    Incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. Ryan Zinke, who served as Trump’s interior secretary, is being challenged by Mary Todd from the party’s right flank. Zinke narrowly won his 2022 primary.

    Democrat and environmental attorney Monica Tranel, who lost to Zinke by 3 percentage points in 2022, is running unopposed in the western House district primary.

    Gianforte is seeking a second term alongside Lt. Gov. Kristen Juras, while facing criticism for large property tax increases as property values increased. With a historic budget surplus following federal stimulus spending due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the state paid off its debt, reduced the top income tax rate and authorized up to $1,250 in one-time rebates to individual income tax payers.

    Gianforte faces a challenge from the right by state Rep. Tanner Smith, who represents part of Flathead County.

    In the Democratic primary for governor, former firearms executive Ryan Busse of Kalispell is running against Helena attorney Jim Hunt.

    Polls close at 8 p.m. Many voters already have cast their ballots by mail.

    ___

    Brown reported from Billings, Montana.

    Copyright 2024 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without permission.

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    Amy Beth Hanson And Matthew Brown, Associated Press

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  • Montana GOP Candidate Benefited From The Same Policy He Rails Against

    Montana GOP Candidate Benefited From The Same Policy He Rails Against

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    Tim Sheehy, the Montana businessman who is vying to unseat Democratic Sen. Jon Tester, received a $210,000 grant from Democrats’ American Rescue Plan — a federal COVID-19 relief package that Sheehy has repeatedly condemned on the campaign trail.

    Sheehy is the founder of Bridger Aerospace, a Bozeman-based aerial firefighting company that relies almost entirely on federal contracts. In March 2022, Bridger was awarded $210,000 from the American Rescue Plan’s Workforce Training Grant Program, which provides funding to businesses to train employees.

    The grant, part of $1.5 billion in American Rescue Plan funding allocated to Montana, has not been previously reported.

    Since launching his Senate bid in June, Sheehy has repeatedly decried what he views as wasteful spending by the Biden administration, including the $1.9 trillion pandemic stimulus package.

    In an interview with Montana radio station KGVO shortly after announcing his campaign, Sheehy said COVID taught his state that the federal government “is not the solution to our problems.”

    “It’s not the solution to educating our children. It’s not the solution to our health care. It’s not the solution to our economy,” he said. “Because when the government pumps trillions of dollars into the economy, we get inflation, which has had an extremely targeted impact on rural states like Montana.’”

    In an interview with Breitbart News in July, Sheehy slammed Biden’s economic agenda, dubbed “Bidenomics,” which the American Rescue Plan is part of.

    “Luckily, Bidenomics rhymes with bad economics — ‘Badenomics,’ I guess we can call it,” he said. “If we’re going to pump trillions of dollars of government fiat money into the economy, everyone said, ‘Hey, there’s going to be massive inflation on the back end of this. No, there won’t. It’ll be transitory, just a few weeks of it.’ No, it’s going to be a fundamental shift in our interest rate basis, because when you literally pump trillions of dollars of essentially artificial currency into our economy, inflation will follow. And sure enough, it did, because it’s pretty basic math when it comes down to that kind of an economic seesaw model.”

    Sheehy went on to declare that Democratic policies during the pandemic “made it crystal clear what the Democrats want in their utopia, in their perfect world, when they had complete control with their emergency powers we saw what they wanted.” He then aired a long list of right-wing, culture war grievances.

    “Luckily, Bidenomics rhymes with bad economics — ‘Badenomics,’ I guess we can call it.”

    – Tim Sheehy

    Sheehy’s campaign did not address HuffPost’s specific questions about the ARP money, instead providing a statement full of deflection.

    “Montana job creator and decorated combat veteran Tim Sheehy knows that Democrats in Washington like Joe Biden and Jon Tester are bankrupting our children’s future with their out-of-control spending,” a campaign spokesperson said in an email. “While we know the Huffington Post would never ask Jon Tester why he voted for the American Rescue Plan – which didn’t create the 4 million jobs promised by the Biden administration and saddled our country with record high inflation and debt – when Tim Sheehy is in the U.S. Senate, he will be proud to rein in government spending and find areas throughout our bloated bureaucratic budget to slash.”

    (This publication is no longer called The Huffington Post. Its name changed to HuffPost as part of a rebrand in 2017.)

    It is unclear exactly how the money for Bridger is to be used. The contract simply states that the funding is for “new job training activities.” A Montana dashboard for American Rescue Plan funds notes that the $210,000 has been awarded but not yet paid to Bridger Aerospace.

    That Sheehy is benefitting from federal aid that he now argues is driving inflation is just the latest example of him and his company double-dipping on partisan issues.

    As HuffPost previously reported, Bridger has repeatedly promoted itself as a leader in the fight against climate change and planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions, securing tens of millions of dollars in federal contracts along the way. Meanwhile, Sheehy has toed the Republican party line on climate, railing against the so-called “climate cult,” “radical environmentalists” and the “disastrous socialist Green New Deal.”

    He also consistently slams the federal government, his company’s biggest client. As HuffPost reported, Bridger reported revenue of more than $46 million last year — 96% of which came from federal contracts. That same year, Sheehy earned nearly $5 million in salary and bonuses as the company’s CEO, and his stock in the company is valued at more than $50 million.

    In an interview with Fox Business in June, the GOP hopeful said “he’s seen the power of the free market” and that Montanans “don’t want more government in their lives, whether it’s state government or federal government.”

    “They want to be left alone to live their lives,” Sheehy said. “The federal government needs to stay in its lane.” He added that government COVID-19 stimulus policies “have really impacted the bedrock of Montana and people are frustrated.”

    But in Sheehy’s case, not frustrated enough to not apply for and receive stimulus money.

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  • Dam Breaks For Bob Menendez: Senate Democrats Pile On In Calls For Resignation

    Dam Breaks For Bob Menendez: Senate Democrats Pile On In Calls For Resignation

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    The dam broke open Tuesday morning as several Senate Democrats urged their colleague Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) to resign.

    Most notably, a trio of vulnerable Democratic senators joined the calls for Menendez to go, a sign that their indicted colleague is already becoming a liability for their 2024 reelection campaigns.

    Within the span of an hour, Democratic Sens. Jon Tester (Mont.), Tammy Baldwin (Wis.) and Bob Casey (Pa.) separately released statements saying Menendez needs to step down as he faces federal corruption charges.

    “I’ve read the detailed charges against Senator Menendez and find them deeply disturbing,” Tester tweeted. “While he deserves a fair trial like every other American, I believe Senator Menendez should resign for the sake of the public’s faith in the U.S. Senate.”

    Minutes earlier, Baldwin tweeted a similar message about Menendez, who was indicted Friday on charges that he and his wife took bribes ― including $100,000 in gold bars, $480,000 in cash and a Mercedes-Benz ― in exchange for favors that aided an Egyptian American businessman and others.

    “The indictment spells out deeply troubling allegations against Senator Menendez that breach the American people’s trust and compromise his ability to effectively represent his constituents,” Baldwin said. “While Senator Menendez enjoys the presumption of innocence until proven guilty and will have his day in court to defend himself, I believe it’s best for his constituents, the American people, and our national security for the Senator to step down.”

    Casey issued a statement saying that the allegations against Menendez indicated that repeatedly violated the public’s trust.

    “While he is entitled to the presumption of innocence, serving in public office is a privilege that demands a higher standard of conduct,” said the Pennsylvania Democrat. “Senator Menendez should resign.”

    Tester, Baldwin and Casey join a fast-growing number of Senate Democrats urging Menendez to go. The others are Sens. John Fetterman (Pa.), Peter Welch (Vt.), Sherrod Brown (Ohio), Elizabeth Warren (Mass.) and Jacky Rosen (Nev.), who is also up for reelection in 2024.

    What’s clear about this particular group of senators speaking up is that the New Jersey Democrat’s refusal to resign is becoming a problem for the party. The National Republican Senatorial Committee on Monday issued a statement tying vulnerable Democrats up for reelection in 2024 to “crooked” Menendez.

    “You’d think it would be a no-brainer to say someone who took gold bars from foreign businessmen to rig US foreign policy is unfit to serve in the Senate, but apparently Senate Democrats disagree,” NRSC spokesman Philip Letsou said in the statement. “Democrats have made clear they will tolerate Bob Menendez’s comical levels of corruption as long as he continues to back their extreme agenda.”

    Which Democrats did the NRSC single out? Tester, Baldwin, Brown and Casey.

    Some Democratic senators are still reluctant to pile on. During a Tuesday interview on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe,” Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) was asked if she thinks Menendez needs to go.

    “As far as I’m concerned, we will let this move forward this week and we’ll see what happens,” Stabenow said.

    “So, not yet for you,” said the show host.

    “Not yet,” Stabenow replied.

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  • Senate Republicans confront 2024 primary challenges and Trump’s influence | CNN Politics

    Senate Republicans confront 2024 primary challenges and Trump’s influence | CNN Politics

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    CNN
     — 

    Kari Lake – the unapologetic supporter of former President Donald Trump and vanquished candidate for Arizona governor – privately made a trip to National Republican Senatorial Committee headquarters in February where she discussed the prospects of shaking up the map and running for Senate.

    But Lake, who has faced blowback over pushing baseless accusations of election fraud, was given this suggestion from NRSC officials: Shift to more effective messaging and away from claims about a stolen election, according to sources familiar with the matter.

    The meeting, which was described as a positive one, focused on how Senate bids often turn on issues that are different than governor’s races, multiple sources said. Top Republicans quietly acknowledge Lake could become a frontrunner if she runs in the primary, hoping to steer her towards a viable campaign if she mounts one, even as Arizona’s Pinal County sheriff is expected to soon jump into the race while independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema actively prepares a reelection bid herself.

    And that’s just one state.

    The Arizona race is one of several landmines that Republican leaders are navigating as they work behind the scenes to avoid a repeat of the 2022 debacle that saw weaker candidates emerge from contested primaries – only to peter out and collapse in the general election and hand Democrats a 51-49 Senate majority. Several of those candidates were backed by Trump as the NRSC – run at the time by Florida Sen. Rick Scott – opted to stay away from Republican primaries.

    Now, the NRSC – run by Sen. Steve Daines of Montana – has taken a much more hands-on approach to primaries, actively working on candidate recruitment and vetting. And the committee is weighing whether to spend big bucks in primaries to help root out weaker candidates, a move that risks setting up a clash with hard-right candidates aligning themselves with Trump.

    “You need to learn from your past mistakes,” South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, a close Trump ally, told CNN. “If you don’t make adjustments, doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different outcome, it’s insanity.”

    Privately, Daines has spoken multiple times with Trump and has been in touch with his eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., while national Republicans point to the NRSC’s early endorsement and fundraising for Rep. Jim Banks in the Indiana Senate race as an example of how the party’s warring wings can try to avoid messy primaries.

    The goal, GOP sources say, is to keep Trump aligned with Republican leadership – even as the former president has furiously attacked Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell in the aftermath of the Capitol attack on January 6, 2021, and as the Senate GOP leader has stayed silent amid the former president’s indictment on 34 felony charges in New York. Daines, however, has been vocal in his defense of Trump.

    “I have a very good relationship with the president. We talk, and it’s no secret we’ve been friends for a long time,” Daines told CNN when asked about the Senate races. “And he provides great insights. And I also provide my thoughts as well. And we have open lines of communication.”

    Daines added: “Wherever we can find common ground is a good thing.”

    That relationship could be put to the test in key battleground states. In West Virginia, Republican leaders are preparing to close ranks behind Gov. Jim Justice, who is seriously weighing a run for the seat occupied by Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin. A Justice bid would put him against Rep. Alex Mooney, who had won Trump’s backing in a competitive House race in the last cycle but now has the support of the conservative Club for Growth’s political arm.

    In Pennsylvania, Doug Mastriano – the controversial candidate who lost a bid for governor last fall but had the support of Trump in the primary – says he’s “still praying” on whether to mount a bid for the Senate, something Republicans in Washington fear. The NRSC plans to put its muscle behind the potential candidacy of David McCormick, the hedge fund executive who narrowly lost the Pennsylvania Senate GOP primary in 2022, according to Republican sources who view him as their best bet at picking up the seat next year.

    “I haven’t decided yet on 2024. I’m thinking about it,” McCormick told CNN. “You run for office … because you think you have something to contribute. You think it’s a moment where you might be able to serve, and if you lose, that motivation doesn’t necessarily go away.”

    And in Montana, Rep. Matt Rosendale, a member of the hard-right House Freedom Caucus, is weighing a run in a race that could put him up against two other potential candidates viewed by senior Republicans as more electable – Montana attorney general Austin Knudsen and businessman Tim Sheehy – against Democratic Sen. Jon Tester. Rosendale attended an event last Tuesday in Mar-a-Lago following Trump’s arraignment in New York, a sign one Trump adviser saw as an effort to secure an endorsement ahead of a potential bid.

    Rosendale told CNN he’s in no rush to make a decision.

    “We’re just taking a nice slow time to let the people in Montana decide who they want to replace him with,” Rosendale said of Tester. “I feel very sure he will be replaced.” He added that Daines “is my senator” and that “I see him regularly.”

    Tester contended that the Republican nominee makes little difference to him.

    “I think the person who runs against me is the person McConnell chooses,” Tester said. “Whoever that is, I don’t think it matters much: Same election.”

    Top Republicans say they will have to make key strategic decisions on how to engage in some of these races – or whether to stay out altogether, as they might in Ohio as party leaders view the emerging field as full of electable candidates against Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown.

    If they come in too aggressively, it could prompt blowback and rally the right behind a potentially weaker candidate. But if they disengage, they could see their favored candidate struggle to gain traction.

    In Wisconsin, Republican officials are urging Rep. Mike Gallagher to run, though he could face a potential primary there as well, as former Senate candidate Eric Hovde and others weigh a run. Gallagher, who is chairing a House panel focused on China, said of a potential run against Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin: “I’m not thinking about it at present,” citing his legislative work and family commitments. But he left the door open.

    “I’d never conceived of this as a long-term thing; I don’t think Congress should be a career,” Gallagher said, adding: “I’m going to weigh all those factors and see where I can make the best impact.”

    In interviews with roughly a dozen top senators, nearly all of them agreed they need to be hyper-focused this cycle on helping candidates who can win not only a primary election, but a general election — repeatedly referencing “candidate quality” as their 2024 motto.

    Texas Sen. John Cornyn, a member of Senate GOP leadership and former NRSC chairman, has long had to contend with primary fights between the party establishment and activist base – battles that had effectively cost them the chance at the Senate majority in the 2010 and 2012 election cycles, in addition to 2022.

    “It never goes away,” Cornyn said of the primary complications. “Republicans need to make up their mind. Do we want to win, or do we want to lose? And I think that it’s that simple, and I think people are tired of losing.”

    Yet some on the right are warning against party leaders picking and choosing their candidates – including Scott, who defends his hands-off approach in the last cycle.

    “I believe the citizens of the state ought to pick,” Scott said, adding: “A lot of these weaker candidates often are the ones who actually win. I was not the establishment candidate.”

    Scott’s fellow Florida Republican, Marco Rubio, was not backed by the NRSC in the 2010 election cycle. But he galvanized the GOP base and defeated Charlie Crist, who later became a Democrat.

    “I’m not a big believer that you can determine who the weaker candidate is. A lot of people up here then would not have been their choice,” Rubio told CNN. “Obviously there might be some exceptions here or there, but generally the NRSC should be engaged in helping whoever the Republican nominee is to win the general election.”

    Unlike the last cycle — when the McConnell-aligned Senate Leadership Fund and the Rick Scott-run NRSC clashed publicly over the approach to expanding the Senate map — this time, the two committees are largely aligned. Republicans are betting that their preferred chances will vastly improve with the help of big donors and nationwide fundraising – and potentially an aggressive ad campaign in the primary to derail weaker opponents.

    “As we look across the country and look at different traces, it’s pretty straightforward,” Daines said. “We want to see candidates who can win a primary election and also win a general.”

    The map heavily favors the GOP – with 23 Democratic and independent seats in cycle compared to just 11 Republicans facing re-election. But Republicans, burnt by their past failures, are well aware that defeating an incumbent is a difficult task and could grow more challenging in a presidential election year, especially in swing states if Trump is the nominee. Behind the scenes, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is trying to limit Democratic retirements.

    And Michigan Sen. Gary Peters, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, was skeptical that a more aggressive GOP intervention from Washington would solve Republican woes.

    “I’m not sure who the Republicans will put forward as their nominees, but normally the folks who get to determine who the nominee is are the voters in those individual states in the primaries,” Peters said in an interview. “If we look at what happened last cycle, those primary voters tended to pick highly flawed candidates, and I expect that will happen again.”

    The fight for the seat occupied by Sinema has quickly emerged as the messiest affair – for both parties.

    Sinema’s recent change in party identification — switching from a Democrat to an independent — poses a fresh challenge that party leaders will have to navigate, as it could set up an unpredictable three-way race. Sinema has not yet said if she will run again, but she has been raising enormous sums in preparation for a potential bid and has been meeting with strategists and advisers to map out plans for a possible campaign.

    And Democratic leaders are worried that backing a fellow Democrat in the primary could end up alienating Sinema and potentially lead her to caucus with the GOP, forcing them to stay neutral for now.

    “She’s a very effective legislator,” Schumer, who so far is neutral in the race, said when asked about Sinema recently.

    On the GOP side, several candidates who tried — and failed — to win statewide races last cycle are also complicating that strategy, making it a key source of anxiety among many top Republicans and the Senate committees, according to Republican sources.

    Those candidates include Lake and the 2020 Senate GOP nominee, Blake Masters, two of the most Trumpian candidates who lost last year. Both Lake and Masters garnered enormous support among the GOP base for leaning into 2020 election denials and the populist ideals that Trump touted throughout his presidency. Masters has discussed a potential 2024 Senate bid with several Republicans, though it’s unclear whether he will run, GOP sources say.

    Lake met with the NRSC for roughly an hour in February and is expected to meet with them again in the coming weeks, sources familiar with the meeting told CNN. The issue of focusing on claims of a stolen election was one point discussed at the meeting, the sources said.

    “The point that has been brought up, which Kari knows, is that the issue sets are different from a governor’s race. She knows you can’t run on that because it’s not something, as a senator, that you can fix,” a source close to Lake said, referencing her rhetoric around stolen elections. “The conversation was more about how the issues are different between a governor’s race and a Senate race.”

    Senior Republicans acknowledge that her ultimate decision on whether to enter the race could freeze out other candidates, particularly those wanting to run in the same lane, with the source close to Lake saying establishment-minded Republicans have been reaching out to her about a potential run. The source said Lake has a 200,000-plus donor list she could pull support from and believes she would have “widespread support” if she decides to run.

    But many in the top ranks are skeptical about her chances.

    “If you take a look at the race, where Sen. Sinema is probably going to take some of the right, left and center, it’s going to make for a difficult path for a Republican in that state in any scenario,” North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis told CNN. “The party there is, I think, set on Lake if she decides to run with it, but, I mean, we just have to see how well she performs.”

    Tillis added that, given the “three-way race dynamic,” Lake “is not going to be able to make a lot of headway there.”

    Cornyn said of Lake: “Her recent track record doesn’t indicate that she would be successful. We need candidates who can broaden their appeal beyond the base and win a general.”

    Masters, meanwhile, has quietly reached out to some advisers about what another Senate run would look like and has spoken with some senior GOP officials about a 2024 run.

    Other potential GOP candidates include Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, who is expected to announce a Senate run as soon as this week and is viewed favorably by some top Republicans, according to GOP sources. Abe Hamadeh, formerly the Republican nominee for Arizona attorney general, is also weighing a run. And both Lamb and Hamadeh met recently with NRSC officials, but they have not met directly with Daines, according to a source familiar with the meetings.

    Two other Republicans, Jim Lamon and Karrin Taylor Robson, are also considering jumping into the race, sources familiar with the matter say. Lamon and Robson, who ran in 2022 for Senate and governor respectively, did not receive Trump’s support.

    Robson recently met with the NRSC, and many within the GOP committee “like her and see her as a quality candidate,” a source familiar with the meeting said. Lamon has not yet met with the NRSC, but is expected to set up a meeting in the coming months.

    Arizona’s Senate primary is not until August 6, 2024, and the filing deadline to enter is April 8, 2024 — giving them a long runway to decide whether or not to run — further complicating GOP leadership’s calculus on how to navigate the race dynamics.

    “I just think we’re, we’re more likely to get people elected if they’re focused on the future, as opposed to focusing on what happened in 2020,” Sen. Mitt Romney, a Republican of Utah, said when asked about a potential Lake candidacy. “I think the American people have made their judgment about the election and want to move on. So, let’s talk about the future and where we’re headed, and if we’ve got a candidate that is consumed with his or her past, it’s most likely a losing candidate.”

    Caroline Wren, a senior adviser to Lake, told CNN, “There’s no doubt Kari Lake is a formidable force in the Republican party right now, but she’s still focused on her lawsuit in Arizona,” referring to her efforts to dispute her loss in the governor’s race.

    Rubio said that Lake could be a strong Senate candidate, despite her shortfall last year.

    “She was a very competitive candidate. I think I trust the Republican voters in Arizona to pick the nominee,” Rubio said. “I don’t think Washington should be stepping in to do it.”

    But Democrats believe that a Lake candidacy will only bolster their chances, even if Sinema decides to run.

    Rep. Ruben Gallego, the Arizona Democrat running for his party’s nomination in the Senate race, suggested to CNN he was praying for a Lake candidacy.

    “I’m a practicing Catholic – so I have these votive candles for different things,” Gallego said. “I have a special candle for Kari Lake to jump in.”

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  • Tester to run for reelection in 2024, providing boost to Democrats’ Senate hopes | CNN Politics

    Tester to run for reelection in 2024, providing boost to Democrats’ Senate hopes | CNN Politics

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    Washington
    CNN
     — 

    Montana Sen. Jon Tester announced Wednesday morning that he will seek reelection in 2024, providing a boost to Democrats’ hopes of retaining the Senate.

    “It’s official. I’m running for reelection,” Tester tweeted. “Montanans need a fighter that will hold our government accountable and demand Washington stand up for veterans and lower costs for families. I will always fight to defend our Montana values. Let’s get to work.”

    Tester is one of several Democratic senators in red and purple states who are likely to face competitive challenges this cycle. Along with West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin, Tester was one of the top incumbents being urged by party leadership to seek reelection.

    Reacting to the announcement, the National Republican Senatorial Committee swiftly moved to tie Tester to President Joe Biden in the deep-red state, calling him the president’s “favorite senator.”

    Democrats have a difficult road to maintain their slim 51-49 majority, with 23 seats to defend compared to just 11 for the GOP.

    Plus, they’ll have to hold onto Democratic seats in GOP terrain, such as in Ohio and West Virginia – not to mention keep their seats in swing states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and Nevada. The map provides them with scant pickup opportunities, since Republican incumbents are mostly running in ruby-red states or states that have trended to the GOP, like Florida.

    Tester has nearly $3 million in his Senate campaign account as he gears up for the campaign.

    This story has been updated with additional background information.

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  • Key senators torn over retirement decisions as party leaders try to fortify 2024 standing | CNN Politics

    Key senators torn over retirement decisions as party leaders try to fortify 2024 standing | CNN Politics

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    CNN
     — 

    Sen. Joe Manchin, torn over whether to run for reelection, says he’s “given everything I possibly can” over four decades of holding public office. Sen. Jon Tester is close to making his final decision on a 2024 bid and concedes there’s a risk of his seat flipping next year.

    “It’s a commitment,” the Montana Democrat said of another run.

    They’re not the only ones in a tough spot.

    Sen. Bob Casey, a Pennsylvania Democrat, is weighing health considerations after treatment for prostate cancer. Sen. Bernie Sanders, 81, says he’ll make a decision about whether to run for a fourth Senate term in Vermont “at the appropriate time.”

    And Sen. Mitt Romney, a Utah Republican who has gone to battle with former President Donald Trump, says he’ll decide whether to run for a second term by mid-April, sounding ready to take on his party’s MAGA wing if he runs again.

    “People understand that every action has a consequence, and you accept the consequences for the actions that you think are right,” Romney, 75, said of potentially facing a stiff challenge from the right. He then added bullishly: “If I run, I’ll win.”

    As the 2024 landscape begins to take shape, the senators’ decisions about their political futures will dramatically alter the map and hold major ramifications for the makeup of the institution itself.

    For Democrats, the concern is the most acute. They already have a difficult road to maintain their slim 51-49 majority, with 23 seats to defend compared to just 11 for the GOP.

    Plus they’ll have to hold onto Democratic seats in GOP terrain, such as in Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia – not to mention keep their seats in swing states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and Nevada. The map provides them with scant pickup opportunities, since Republican incumbents are mostly running in ruby-red states or states that have trended to the GOP, like Florida.

    Then there’s the complicated dance for both parties in Arizona, if Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, now an independent, decides to run again for a seat that would put her up against a Republican and Democrat in a messy, three-way race. For Republicans, fear is growing that the hard-right Kari Lake may mount a bid and put their hopes for a pickup in jeopardy.

    And with few pickup chances, Senate Democrats recognize they’ll have to limit losses – and prevent retirements – in order to cling to power.

    “I’m doing everything I can to help Manchin in West Virginia,” Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer told CNN when asked if he were concerned that the conservative Democrat might hang it up, referring to legislative actions.

    After Michigan Sen. Debbie Stabenow announced she’d retire, Schumer and his top deputies are hoping to prevent others from following suit, recognizing that an open seat would give Republicans an even better chance of seizing control of the chamber they lost in the 2020 elections. The exception is California, where the 89-year-old Dianne Feinstein announced her retirement this week, something widely expected, as Democrats are expected to keep the seat in their control in the blue state.

    In particular, Democratic leaders are urging Tester and Manchin to run again, knowing full well that finding another Democrat to win in those conservative battlegrounds will be an extremely tall order in 2024.

    “Clearly, it’s important for them to run,” said Sen. Gary Peters, a Michigan Democrat who chairs the Senate Democratic campaign arm, when asked about Tester and Manchin. “I don’t know where they are. I’ve talked to them, but they’re just working through issues, personal issues for themselves as to what they want to do. So we just have to give them time to think that through and I look forward to their answers.”

    Peters acknowledged that his party’s effort to keep the Senate will grow bleaker if either or both men retire.

    “Those are states that are very Republican,” Peters told CNN, referring to Montana and West Virginia. “And I know they can win again, but they’re without question the strongest candidates in those states. It’d be more difficult without them running.”

    Democrats acknowledge they have close to no backup plans in Montana or West Virginia. But they have been heartened by the polls that are being released publicly by Republican groups in those states, showing their numbers have been better than expected – and perhaps encouraging – for the incumbents.

    But neither Manchin nor Tester seem concerned that the seat could turn red if they retire.

    “That’s not my factor,” Manchin said in the interview. “I’m not weighing that because of my, what it might do to the numbers as far as up here. No, I’ve been at this for quite some time. This term being up, there’ll be 42 years I’ve been in public service so I’ve given everything I possibly can.”

    Several Democratic operatives involved in planning for Senate races tell CNN they expect that ultimately, Tester will run and that Casey will as well after his successful surgery this week. Manchin has them more on edge, and they anticipate that’s how they’ll remain for almost a year: the West Virginia filing deadline isn’t until next January.

    That, after all, is what he did in 2018.

    Manchin, a former governor and state legislator who has served in the Senate since 2010, insists he’s not concerned about the prospects that the GOP governor, Jim Justice, is strongly considering a run against him, though Justice would have to escape a difficult primary against Rep. Alex Mooney and potentially the state’s attorney general, Patrick Morrisey, who may run as well. He has acknowledged that Justice would be the toughest candidate to face, though he insists he could still pull off a victory.

    Manchin, 75, just doesn’t know if he wants to do it again as he looks back at the last several years – especially in the 50-50 Senate in the last Congress where he was at the peak of his power in the chamber and played a central role shaping major laws. The question Manchin is weighing: whether he’ll have the same kind of impact with another six years.

    “I make a decision based on if I’ve been able to deliver for the state, have I been able to support the Constitution and the oath I’ve taken, I think I have,” Manchin said, confirming he’s been urged by Biden and Schumer both to run. “Is there more I can do in different, other areas? I don’t know.”

    Tester, who also said Schumer has been urging him to run, conceded that his seat could flip if he bows out.

    “Oh, absolutely there’s a risk of flipping there’s no doubt about that but so are all of them,” Tester said.

    But he contended other Democrats could mount a vigorous challenge for the seat.

    “Actually, we’ve got some really good folks in the wings that can run,” Tester, 66, said before he noted that things have gotten dire for Democrats in recent cycles. “We haven’t had the best of luck the last few cycles in Montana but I think that’s as much self-inflicted as it is the state turning red.”

    But Tester pointed to key positions he holds – chairing a subcommittee on Pentagon spending and running the veterans panel – as he weighs another run.

    “I’m at a point and time where we can get a lot of good things done because of my position on Veterans Affairs and defense chairman but it’s just something where I think you just need to take the time to think over,” he said.

    Yet Democrats could benefit from a potentially divisive GOP primary in Montana – with the possibility of candidacies from two House members, the governor and the state attorney general. That will put the other Montana senator, Republican Steve Daines, to the test as he plans to use his National Republican Senatorial Committee to be more assertive in GOP primaries to root out lackluster general election candidates, though it’s unclear how he would handle his home state.

    In an interview, Daines was noncommittal when asked about one candidate in particular – Rep. Matt Rosendale – a hard-right Republican who lost to Tester in 2018 and is considering running again. He said “it’s early” since candidates have yet to declare and that the field will get “sorted out,” contending the race is “winnable.”

    “These are three red states where the only statewide elected official left that’s a Democrat is a US Senator. That’s Montana, it’s West Virginia, it’s Ohio,” Daines said. “These are going to be spirited races.”

    And after last cycle’s GOP debacle, where several Donald Trump-aligned candidates petered out in the general election and effectively cost them winning the majority, Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell is determined not to allow that to happen again.

    “I just think we need to focus on candidates who can win in the general election,” said Sen. John Cornyn, a Republican from Texas and close McConnell ally. “We had some great primary candidates, but that won’t get the job done. You got to have somebody who can have a broader appeal than just the base. That was one of the most important lessons of this last cycle.”

    Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego, at left, is challenging Sinema, at right, for her US Senate seat in 2024.

    Senate leaders in both parties see Arizona as the biggest wildcard – depending on what Sinema decides to do and which Republican decides to run.

    Lake, the Trump-aligned Republican who lost one of the nation’s premier governor’s races last fall, recently met with officials at NRSC headquarters – even though many Republicans are nervous about her potential candidacy and one GOP strategist called the potential of a Lake Senate run “disastrous.”

    As she made the rounds in Washington, Daines told CNN that he spoke with Lake.

    “I want to see a candidate who can not only win a primary, but can win a general election,” Daines said when asked about that visit, not commenting on Lake directly.

    Other top Republicans are unnerved about Lake – and her evidence-free claims of widespread election fraud – and are pushing for other candidates to jump into the race.

    “I’ve just said to any of our candidates or potential candidates in 2024, that you got to talk about the future, not the past,” said Senate Minority Whip John Thune of South Dakota, the No. 2 Republican. “And I think if you’re building your campaign around the theme of a stolen election, that’s not a winning strategy. We’ve seen that. So if she does decide to do it again, I think she’s gonna have to talk about the things that are on the hearts and minds of American people.”

    Schumer and Democratic leaders, themselves, are in a bind in the state, refusing to say if they’ll back their party’s nominee with Sinema still undecided on a run. The reason: They need Sinema to continue to organize with them in order to maintain their 51-49 majority and are in no mood to alienate her.

    But some Democrats are angry at their leaders for refusing to say if they’ll back their nominee, especially backers of Rep. Ruben Gallego, the party’s leading candidate in the race.

    “At some point, they’re going to have to endorse a Democrat,” said Rep. Raul Grijalva, a fellow Arizona Democrat who backs Gallego, noting it would be “problematic” if party leaders didn’t dump huge resources to help their party’s nominee win a general election.

    “If they don’t, that would be an insult at many levels,” Grijavla said.

    While some Democrats are nervous that Gallego and Sinema would split the vote and give Republicans a victory, Gallego dismisses the possibility and says only a “strong Democrat” can win.

    “No matter what happens, Kyrsten Sinema is always going to be in third place,” Gallego said. “I also doubt she fully runs.”

    As she’s grown more alienated from her former party, Sinema has grown closer to Republicans, including one – Lisa Murkowski of Alaska – who told CNN she would endorse the senator if she ran again.

    “I absolutely support Sen. Sinema,” Murkowski said, noting she’s also backing Manchin. “She’s not afraid to take on hard things, and I’m gonna be supporting her too.”

    Sen. Debbie Stabenow of Michigan speaks to members of the media at the U.S. Capitol on August 03, 2022 in Washington, DC.

    Even in safe Democratic seats, there’s the potential for a shakeup that could bring more diversity and younger members into the ranks, including in Maryland and Delaware where Sens. Ben Cardin and Tom Carper, respectively, have not made a final decision to run yet.

    Cardin, 79, who hasn’t spent much time fundraising yet, said he would make his decision sometime in the spring, while Carper, 76, said he’d be ready to run but noted that campaigns are “way too long.”

    In Hawaii, Sen. Mazie Hirono said she plans to run again, as did Maine’s Angus King, an independent who caucuses with Democrats.

    “There’s only two ways to run: Scared or unopposed,” King said.

    In more contested states, Nevada’s Jacky Rosen said she is running, as did Ohio’s Sherrod Brown. And in Wisconsin, Sen. Tammy Baldwin said she’d make her announcement about her plans in the spring after upcoming elections in the state.

    In Texas, Sen. Ted Cruz has announced plans to run for a third Senate term, and Democrats are weighing whether to mount a serious effort to try to unseat him in the red state – with a focus on whether Democratic Rep. Colin Allred will try to mount an upset bid against the conservative senator.

    In Michigan, where Stabenow’s retirement is leaving Democrats with an open seat in a swing state, Rep. Elissa Slotkin is eying a run and could get some implicit help from the outgoing senator herself. Stabenow has spoken by phone with several prominent Michigan Democrats, and while some have perceived that as dissuading some weaker candidates from running, a Stabenow spokesperson says she’s just been giving everyone advice on the challenges of running statewide in Michigan and not trying to clear the field.

    Republican recruitment efforts in the state are also up in the air, with a push for newly elected Rep. John James, who has lost two previous bids for the Senate. If he passes, GOP leaders believe other contenders will emerge, potentially former Rep. Peter Meijer and even some current members of the House delegation or local officials.

    While several potential Democratic candidates have decided not to run, other political players in the state remain unsure about Slotkin’s statewide strength and have continued talking privately about finding an alternative.

    Given how much Democrats in the state rely on high turnout in heavily African-American Detroit, finding a candidate who could run strong there has been a major topic in those discussions. Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist, who got his start in Detroit politics is “very seriously thinking about making a run” and is expected to make a decision over the next month, according to a person familiar with his thinking.

    Meanwhile, several Democrats in Michigan tell CNN they have been surprised by outreach they’re getting from “The Good Doctor” actor Hill Harper, whose political experience mostly relates to being Barack Obama’s law school roommate, but who owns a coffee shop in Detroit and has gotten involved with the local business community there. Harper did not return a request for comment.

    Stabenow said she’s not endorsing any candidate in the primary to replace her.

    “What I’m saying to folks is that I want somebody that is strong, effective, who can raise money, who can win,” Stabenow said. “But I’m talking to everybody.”

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  • Politicians consider limits on farm ownership after Chinese balloon saga

    Politicians consider limits on farm ownership after Chinese balloon saga

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    Near the banks of Montana’s Musselshell River, cattle rancher Michael Miller saw a large, white orb above the town of Harlowton last week, a day before U.S. officials revealed they were tracking a suspected Chinese spy balloon over the state. The balloon caused a stir in the 900-person town surrounded by cattle ranches, wind farms and scattered nuclear missile silos behind chain link fences.

    Miller worries about China as a rising threat to the U.S., but questioned how much intelligence could be gained from a balloon. China’s bigger threat, he said, is to the U.S. economy. Like many throughout the country, Miller wonders if stricter laws are needed to bar farmland sales to foreign nationals so power over agriculture and the food supply doesn’t end up in the wrong hands.

    “It’s best not to have a foreign entity buying up land, especially one that’s not really friendly to us,” Miller said. “They are just going to take us over economically, instead of military-wise.”

    Miller’s concerns are increasingly shared by U.S. lawmakers after the Chinese balloon’s voyage over American skies inflamed tensions between Washington and Beijing.

    China Balloon-Farmland
    Cattle rancher Michael Miller poses for a photograph near central Montana’s Musselshell River, Tuesday, Feb. 7, 2023, near Harlowton, Montana.

    Matthew Brown / AP


    In Congress and statehouses, the balloon’s journey added traction to decades-old concerns about foreign land ownership. U.S. Sen. Jon Tester, a Democrat from Montana, is sponsoring legislation to include agriculture as a factor in national security decisions allowing foreign real estate investments.

    “The bottom line is we don’t want folks from China owning our farmland. It goes against food security and it goes against national security,” Tester told The Associated Press.

    At least 11 state legislatures also are considering measures to address the concern. That includes Montana and North Dakota, where the U.S. Air Force recently warned that a $700 million corn mill proposed near a military base by the American subsidiary of a Chinese company would risk national security.

    City council members in Grand Forks, North Dakota, endured a barrage of criticism from town residents Monday night before voting 5-0 to abandon the plan. The move came a year after a joint press release from local officials and North Dakota’s governor called the project “extraordinary,” saying it would bring jobs and bolster the farm industry.

    Enraged residents of the 59,000-person city near the Minnesota border demanded resignations from council members they claimed had tried to push through the plan, brushing off Chinese threats to national security.

    “You decided, for whatever reason, this was such a fantastic thing for our city that you got blinders on,” said Dexter Perkins, a University of North Dakota geology professor. “You guys went all in when there were a gazillion unanswered questions.”

    Before the Air Force’s warning, officials said they weren’t in a position to opine on national security matters.

    Foreign entities and individuals control less than 3% of U.S. farmland, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Of that, those with ties to China control less than 1%, or roughly 600 square miles.

    View of mountains with Air Force facility in front
    A U.S. Air Force installation surrounded by farmland in central Montana is seen on Feb. 7, 2023, near Harlowton, Montana. Lawmakers in at least 11 statehouses and Congress are weighing further restrictions on foreign ownership of U.S. farmland.

    Matthew Brown / AP


    Yet in recent years, transactions of agricultural and non-agricultural land have attracted scrutiny, particularly in states with a large U.S. military presence.

    Limitations on foreign individuals or entities owning farmland vary widely throughout the U.S. Most states allow it, while 14 have restrictions. No states have a total prohibition. Of the five states where the federal agriculture department says entities with ties to China own the most farmland, four don’t limit foreign ownership: North Carolina, Virginia, Texas and Utah.

    The fifth, Missouri, has a cap on foreign land ownership that state lawmakers want to make more stringent.

    Ownership restriction supporters often speculate about foreign buyers’ motives and whether people with ties to adversaries such as China intend to use land for spying or exerting control over the U.S. food supply.

    Texas in 2021 banned infrastructure deals with individuals tied to hostile governments, including China. The policy came after a Chinese army veteran and real estate tycoon purchased a wind farm in a border town near a U.S. Air Force base. This year, Texas Republicans want to expand that with a ban against land purchases by individuals and entities from hostile countries including China.

    Critics see it as anti-foreigner hysteria, with Texas’ Asian American community particularly concerned about the effect on immigrants who want to buy homes and build businesses.

    In Utah, concern has centered on a Chinese company’s purchase of a speedway near an army depot in 2015 and Chinese-owned farms exporting alfalfa and hay from drought-stricken parts of the state.

    Lawmakers this year are considering two proposals that would, to varying degrees, ban entities with ties to foreign governments from owning land.

    Domestic control vs. economic growth

    “Do we really want any foreign country coming in and buying our agricultural land, our forests or our mineral rights?” asked Republican state Rep. Kay Christofferson, who is sponsoring one of the bills. “If it would interfere with our sovereignty — especially in an emergency situation or during a threat to national security — I think that we’d lose our ability as a state to be independent and self sufficient.”

    Caitlin Welsh, director of the Global Food Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the scramble to limit foreign land ownership tracked rising U.S.-China tensions. Welsh shares concerns about U.S. adversaries purchasing land near military bases like in Grand Forks, but said worries about China controlling the food supply were overblown.

    “China is just a small slice of the bigger picture of foreign ownership,” Welsh said. “When it comes to food security, the biggest threat is that foreign owners can potentially pay a higher price for agricultural land, which then drives up prices.”

    Yellow vehicle on the side of a highway
    A U.S. Air Force security vehicle is seen on a central Montana highway, Tuesday, Feb 7, 2023, near Harlowton, Montana.

    Matthew Brown / AP


    The restrictions have encountered resistance in states with strong property rights. In Wyoming, two proposals to restrict foreign land ownership failed this week even though Republicans who control the statehouse were sympathetic to concerns about China expanding its reach.

    “We’ve had a lot of problems with China lately in the air. Big balloons flying over us. We look at this as a national and state security bill, for Wyoming and the United States,” said Rep. Bill Allemand, a Republican from Casper.

    Lawmakers on Monday rejected Allemand’s proposal to ban ownership of more than an acre of land by people from China, Russia and countries the U.S. government considers state sponsors of terrorism. Skeptics said it would be difficult to police due to the complex web of title companies and holding corporations in agricultural real estate.

    “This is very easy to get around,” Republican Rep. Martha Lawley said. “We may end the day feeling good about ourselves, but we’ve opened up to a lot of liability.”

    Questions about foreign investment are increasingly prompting debate over whether cities and states should be rolling out welcome mats or shutting doors to potential threats. The issue can pit local officials interested in economic development against state and federal agencies concerned with national security.


    China: U.S. “overreacted” in shooting down suspected spy balloon

    03:07

    That was initially the case with the proposed corn mill in Grand Forks, where officials last year lauded the plans. But days after the U.S. Air Force shot down the Chinese balloon, which China insists was only a weather balloon, the sentiment had fizzled and the city changed course.

    “There’s something that I’ve learned through this process, and that is sometimes to slow down and make sure we fully understand before we move to the next level,” Grand Forks council member Ken Vein said before voting to abandon the corn mill.

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  • Guest lineups for the Sunday news shows

    Guest lineups for the Sunday news shows

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    WASHINGTON — ABC’s “This Week” — White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby; Rep. Adam Kinzinger, R-Ill.; NASA Johnson Space Center Director Vanessa Wyche.

    ——

    NBC’s “Meet the Press” — Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont.; Preet Bharara, former U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York.

    ——

    CBS’ “Face the Nation” — Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase & Co.; Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Calif.; Fiona Hill, a former Russia adviser in the Trump White House; Chris Krebs, former director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency.

    ———

    CNN’s “State of the Union” — Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt.; Roger Carstens, special presidential envoy for hostage affairs.

    ———

    “Fox News Sunday” — Kirby; former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

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  • The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2024 | CNN Politics

    The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2024 | CNN Politics

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    CNN
     — 

    Opportunity is ripe for Republicans to win back the Senate next year – if they can land the candidates to pull it off.

    The GOP needs a net gain of one or two seats to flip the chamber, depending on which party wins the White House in 2024, and it’s Democrats who are defending the tougher seats. Democrats hold seven of the 10 seats that CNN ranks as most likely to flip party control next year – and the top three are all in states former President Donald Trump carried twice.

    But this spring’s recruitment season, coming on the heels of a midterm cycle marred by problematic GOP candidates, will likely go a long way toward determining how competitive the Senate map is next year.

    National Republicans got a top pick last week, with Gov. Jim Justice announcing his Senate bid in West Virginia – the seat most likely to flip party control in 2024. (Rankings are based on CNN’s reporting, fundraising figures and historical data about how states and candidates have performed.) But Justice appears headed for a contentious and expensive primary. And in many other top races, the GOP hasn’t yet landed any major candidates.

    Democrats, meanwhile, are thankful that most of their vulnerable incumbents are running for reelection, while a high-profile House member has largely cleared the field for one of their open Senate seats.

    Pollster asked Democrats who they like for 2024. Here’s what he found

    The unknown remains West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin. Responding to Justice’s candidacy, Manchin – who has said he’ll decide about running by the end of the year – had this to say to CNN about a potentially messy GOP primary: “Let the games begin.”

    The anti-tax Club for Growth’s political arm has already committed to spending $10 million to back West Virginia Rep. Alex Mooney in the GOP primary. And tensions between the club, which has turned against Trump, and more establishment Republicans could become a feature of several top Senate races this cycle, especially with the National Republican Senatorial Committee weighing more aggressive involvement in primaries to weed out candidates it doesn’t think can win general elections.

    In the 2022 cycle, most of Trump’s handpicked candidates in swing states stumbled in the general election. But the former president picked up a key endorsement this week from NRSC Chair Steve Daines. The Montana Republican has stayed close with Trump, CNN has previously reported, in a bid to ensure he’s aligned with leadership.

    Democrats defending tough seats have previously used GOP primaries to their advantage. Manchin survived in 2018 in part because his opponent was state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey. That wasn’t an accident. Democrats had spent big attacking one of his primary opponents to keep him out of the general election.

    Last year’s midterms underscored that candidates really do matter after Republicans failed to harness favorable national winds in some key races. In a presidential year, the national environment is likely to loom large, especially with battleground states hosting key Senate races. It will also test whether some of the last remaining senators who represent states that back the opposite parties’ presidential nominees can hold on.

    President Joe Biden, who carried half of the states on this list in 2020, made official last week that he’s running for reelection. The GOP presidential field is slowly growing, with Trump still dominating most primary polling. It’s too early to know, however, what next year’s race for the White House will look like or which issues, whether it’s abortion or crime or the economy, will resonate.

    So for now, the parties are focused on what they can control: candidates. Even though the 2024 map is stacked in their favor, Republicans can’t win with nobody. But there’s plenty of time for would-be senators to get into these races. Some filing deadlines – in Arizona, for example – aren’t for nearly another year. And there’s an argument to be made that well-funded or high-profile names have no reason to get in early.

    Here’s where the Senate map stands 18 months from Election Day.

    Incumbent: Democrat Joe Manchin

    joe manchin 2024 senate race

    Sen. Joe Manchin isn’t one to shy away from attention – and he’s getting plenty of it by keeping everyone guessing about his reelection plans. Assuming he runs, Democrats will have a fighting chance to defend this seat in a state Trump carried by 39 points in 2020. The senator has repeatedly broken with the White House – on Biden’s first veto and the White House’s debt ceiling stance, for example.

    Without Manchin, Democrats know West Virginia is all but lost. Manchin raised only $371,000 in this year’s first fundraising quarter, which ended March 31, and Republicans are already attacking him, with One Nation – the issue advocacy group aligned with Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell – launching an ad campaign tying him to the Inflation Reduction Act. (The senator went on Fox News last week and threatened to back a repeal of his own bill.) Still, Manchin has nearly $10 million in the bank, as well as outside cover from Democratic-allied groups.

    Republicans will likely be spending quite a lot of time and money attacking each other in the primary. The Club for Growth’s political arm is backing House Freedom Caucus member Alex Mooney, while Gov. Jim Justice will likely have backup from GOP party leaders. The wealthy governor, who was first elected as a Democrat before switching parties in 2017, has high name ID and is close with Trump. Mooney also has Trumpian credentials, having won a member-on-member House primary last year with the former president’s endorsement. The congressman is already attacking the governor in an ad as “Liberal Jim Justice,” using imagery of his opponent in a face mask.

    Incumbent: Democrat Jon Tester

    jon tester 2024 senate race

    Democrats got welcome news with Sen. Jon Tester’s announcement that he’s running for a fourth term – and that he raised $5 million in the first quarter (more than a million of which came from small-dollar donors). Tester is running in Trump country – Montana backed the former president by 16 points in 2020 – but like Manchin he has a well-established brand to draw on, which includes breaking with Biden when he needs to. (Tester also voted for a GOP resolution to roll back a Biden administration ESG investing rule, which prompted the president’s first veto.) The GOP field is still taking shape. Republicans are interested in retired Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy, a businessman with the potential to self-fund, and state Attorney General Austin Knudsen.

    Another potential candidate is Rep. Matt Rosendale, who lost to Tester in 2018 after winning the GOP nomination with the help of the Club for Growth, which has recently been at odds with Trump. Rosendale made a telling appearance at Mar-a-Lago in April for Trump’s post-indictment speech after snubbing the former president’s pick for House speaker in January when he didn’t back Kevin McCarthy. The congressman hasn’t said yet whether he’s running, but he raised only about $127,000 in the first quarter of the year – well short of what he’d need for a competitive Senate bid.

    Incumbent: Democrat Sherrod Brown

    sherrod brown 2024 senate race

    Sen. Sherrod Brown is the only Democrat to win a nonjudicial statewide race in Ohio over the past decade, so the big question for 2024 is whether he can defy expectations again in his red-trending state. Trump has twice carried the Buckeye State by 8 points, and his handpicked candidate, JD Vance, defeated Democrat Tim Ryan by about 6 points in last year’s Senate race despite the Republican’s campaign struggles.

    Brown is much more of an institution in Ohio than Ryan, and he’s built up relationships not just among White working-class communities but urban centers too. He raised $3.6 million in the first quarter of the year. Two wealthy Republicans are in the race to try to take him on – businessman Bernie Moreno, whom Trump has praised, and state Sen. Matt Dolan, whose family owns the Cleveland Guardians baseball team. Both men ran for Senate in 2022, but Moreno dropped out ahead of the primary. Dolan, who ran as a moderate conservative less than enthralled with Trump and his election lies, finished third in a crowded field. Rep. Warren Davidson and Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose could also jump into this year’s GOP race.

    Incumbent: Independent Kyrsten Sinema

    kyrsten sinema 2024 senate race

    Arizona has the potential to be one of the most interesting races this cycle, but a lot depends on whether Democratic-turned-independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema runs for reelection. Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego, who’s running to her left, outraised the incumbent $3.8 million to $2.1 million in the first quarter. Sinema has a clear cash-on-hand advantage – nearly $10 million to Gallego’s $2.7 million.

    Earlier this month, Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb became the first major Republican to enter the race, leaning into a law enforcement message. But the filing deadline isn’t until next April, so there’s still plenty of time for others to jump in. Some Republicans are anxious about the potential entry of Kari Lake, last year’s losing gubernatorial nominee, who still maintains she won. She’d likely be popular with the base in a state that’s become a hotbed of election denialism, but her candidacy could pose a serious risk for the party in a general election. The NRSC recently pushed her to move away from election conspiracy theories, CNN reported.

    Former attorney general nominee Abe Hamadeh and Karrin Taylor Robson, who lost last year’s gubernatorial primary to Lake, have also met with NRSC officials, CNN reported. Also in the mix could be Republican businessman Jim Lamon, who lost the party nod for the state’s other Senate seat last year. Republicans would like to see Sinema run because she and Gallego would likely split the vote on the left. But they’ve got their work cut out from them in landing a candidate who can appeal to the GOP base without alienating the general electorate in a state that narrowly backed Biden in 2020.

    Incumbent: Democrat Jacky Rosen

    jacky rosen 2024 senate race

    Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen is, as expected, running for reelection, touting her middle-class roots and bipartisan legislative wins in an announcement video in April. “Nevada is always a battleground,” the senator says – a reminder that Democrats don’t want to take this state for granted. Rosen was first elected in 2018 – a midterm year – by 5 points. Last fall, her Democratic colleague, Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, defeated former state Attorney General Adam Laxalt by less than a point.

    The state tends to get bluer in presidential years, but Biden and Hillary Clinton both carried it only by about 2 points. Republicans don’t yet have a major name in the race, but they’re watching two defeated candidates from last year – Army veteran Sam Brown, who lost the GOP Senate nod, and attorney April Becker, who lost a bid for a redrawn House seat.

    Incumbent: Democrat Tammy Baldwin

    tammy baldwin 2024 senate race

    Sen. Tammy Baldwin announced earlier this month that she’s running for a third term, giving Democrats an automatic advantage for now over Republicans, who have no declared candidates in this perennial battleground state. Baldwin raised $2.1 million in the first quarter, ending with nearly $4 million in the bank.

    Establishment Republicans have expressed strong interest in Rep. Mike Gallagher. Even Rep. Tom Tiffany, who recently bought Senate web domain names, told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel that he thought his fellow congressman should run. But there’s little sign that Gallagher, the chair of the new House select committee on the Chinese Communist Party, is interested. Two businessmen with the ability to tap into or raise significant resources could be in the mix – Eric Hovde, who lost the GOP Senate nomination in 2012, and Scott Mayer. And then there’s controversial former Milwaukee County Sheriff David Clarke, who could draw support in a GOP primary but seriously complicate a general election for Republicans.

    Democrats are feeling good about the recent state Supreme Court election, which the Democratic-backed candidate won by 10 points, flipping control of the bench to liberals. Still, the competitiveness of this state – which Biden carried by about half a point after Trump had won it by a similar margin four years earlier – shouldn’t be underestimated.

    Incumbent: Democrat Debbie Stabenow (retiring)

    debbie stabenow 2024 senate race

    Rep. Elissa Slotkin has mostly cleared the Democratic field of major rivals in the race to succeed retiring Democrat Debbie Stabenow in another Midwestern battleground state. A few less-known names are in, and actor Hill Harper – of “The Good Doctor” and “CSI: NY” – could throw his hat in the Democratic ring, but it’ll be hard to rival Slotkin’s fundraising. She brought in about $3 million in the first quarter.

    On the GOP side, State Board of Education member Nikki Snyder announced her campaign in mid-February, but she hadn’t raised much money by the end of the first quarter. Former Rep. Peter Meijer could run, but his vote to impeach Trump would likely kill his prospects of winning the nomination – unless it were a heavily splintered primary field. Other possible GOP names include businessman Kevin Rinke and former Detroit Police Chief James Craig, who finished second and sixth, respectively, in last year’s gubernatorial primary. (Craig was a write-in candidate after failing to make the ballot because of invalid signatures.)

    Michigan Democrats did well last year – retaining the top three executive offices and flipping the state legislature – and they feel optimistic about their chances in the state in a presidential year. Still, Biden only won the state by less than 3 points. And while Slotkin has experience winning tough races, a lot may depend on whom the GOP nominates and which way the national winds are blowing next year.

    Incumbent: Democrat Bob Casey

    bob casey 2024 senate race

    Democrats breathed another sigh of relief when Sen. Bob Casey, who disclosed a prostate cancer diagnosis earlier this year, announced that he was running for a fourth term. A former state auditor general and treasurer and the son of a two-term governor, Casey is well known in the Keystone State. He most recently won reelection by 13 points against a hard-line congressman who had tied himself closely to Trump.

    This year, national Republicans are eyeing former hedge fund executive Dave McCormick, who lost the GOP nomination for Senate last year, as a top-tier recruit. Upon Casey’s reelection announcement, McCormick immediately attacked him, saying in a statement that a vote for Casey was “a vote for Biden and [Senate Majority Leader Chuck] Schumer.” The wealthy Republican has been on tour promoting his new book, “Superpower in Peril: A Battle Plan to Renew America,” and has hired staff but has yet to launch a campaign.

    And consternation remains among national Republicans that losing 2022 gubernatorial nominee Doug Mastriano could jump into the race. An election denier who lost by 15 points last fall, Mastriano could jeopardize the race for Republicans. His candidacy would likely inspire a concerted effort by national Republicans to defeat him in the primary.

    Incumbent: Republican Ted Cruz

    ted cruz 2024 senate race

    Texas and Florida – both in a far different category of competitiveness compared with the rest of the states on this list – are trading places this month. GOP Sen. Ted Cruz is running for reelection after passing on another presidential bid. He raised $1.3 million in the first quarter – relatively little for a massive, expensive state – and ended March with $3.3 million in the bank. He’s proved to be a compelling boogeyman for the left, with Democrat Beto O’Rourke raising millions to try to unseat him in 2018, ultimately coming up less than 3 points short.

    After a gubernatorial loss last year, O’Rourke hasn’t made any noise about this race. But Democratic Rep. Colin Allred, who raised about half a million dollars in the first quarter, is looking at it. State Sen. Roland Gutierrez, who represents Uvalde, is also weighing a bid, the San Antonio Express-News reported. Still, unseating Cruz in a state Trump won by nearly 6 points in 2020 will be a tall order.

    Incumbent: Republican Rick Scott

    rick scott 2024 senate race

    Sen. Rick Scott has a history of close elections – he was first elected in 2018 by a fraction of a point following two prior narrow wins for governor. But GOP Sen. Marco Rubio and Gov. Ron DeSantis won commanding victories last fall, suggesting the state is getting redder.

    Democrats don’t seem to have a major candidate as yet, but whoever opposes Scott is likely to use his controversial policy proposal – released last year during his NRSC chairmanship – against him. Scott’s plan had originally proposed sunsetting all federal programs every five years, but the senator later added a carve-out for Medicare and Social Security amid backlash from his own party. His most immediate headache could come in the form of intraparty attacks along those lines – and others.

    Attorney Keith Gross has launched a primary challenge, alluding in his announcement video to Scott’s tenure as the head of a hospital chain company that the Justice Department investigated for health care fraud. While the company pleaded guilty to fraudulent Medicare billing, among other things, and paid $1.7 billion in fines, Scott wasn’t charged with a crime. It’s unclear how much of his own money Gross, who previously ran for office in Georgia as a Democrat, would put into a campaign.

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