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ATLANTA, GA – OCTOBER 19: John Collins #20 of the Atlanta Hawks drives to the basket against Jabari … [+]
When the Atlanta Hawks re-signed John Collins to a five-year contract worth $125 million, they must have had a plan in regards to his future development.
At least, that seemed like the consensus at the time, given that no team in their right mind would spend that much money, only to leave one of the most dynamic offensive forwards in the NBA as a background prop.
As the calendar pages have turned, however, the Hawks proved that they indeed did not have a plan with Collins. Or, if nothing else, their plans changed.
Collins, despite averaging over 21 points and 10 rebounds per game in the 2019-2020 season, has been reduced to that of a bit player, scoring only 12.4 points per game, and sporting a career-low shot attempt rate on a per-minute scale.
Needless to say, the offseason acquisition of Dejounte Murray plays a part, as the Hawks backcourt of him and Trae Young are taking over 42 shots per game, and dominating the basketball. You’d think having two elite playmakers would unlock Collins to the point where he could showcase his offensive skills, but that has not happened.
Instead, the Hawks have pivoted towards De’Andre Hunter as their third option. That in itself isn’t a bad thing, as Hunter is a fine player who offers more on-ball versatility than Collins, and frankly fits the mold of a new-age power forward more.
Yet, the evolution of Hunter, and the usage held by Young and Murray, has left Collins out in the cold long enough. Since the aforementioned 2019-2020 season, Collins has seen his own involvement lessen every single season.
So, who could use a forward, who not only displays outstanding offensive efficiency (Career TS of 63.1%), but also a reliable three-point shot, and quality rebounding?
Enter the Golden State Warriors.
Right now, the defending champions look overwhelmed. They lost key bench players, such as Otto Porter Jr and Gary Payton II, from last season and hoped to even the scales with internal development from James Wiseman, Jonathan Kuminga, and Moses Moody.
That has not happened yet, and it may not happen this year. While all of them could still turn into reliable, and even important NBA players, they’re all seemingly a few years away, which isn’t doing the Warriors any favors.
After all, Stephen Curry will turn 35 in March. Draymond Green and Klay Thompson will both turn 33, leaving Andrew Wiggins (27) and Jordan Poole (23) as the only high-impact players on the roster under the age of 30.
In short, they need a talent injection. And soon.
Collins, who’s earning $23.5 million this season, is more financially viable as a solution than for example former Warrior Kevin Durant and his $44.1 million, who has also been rumored as a trade candidate since asking out of Brooklyn over the summer.
Matching salary would be fairly straightforward, as Wiseman, Kuminga, and Kevon Looney amounts to $22.3 million. While this adds to Golden State’s luxury tax bill, a Collins acquisition would dramatically improve their chances of repeating as champions this season.
The challenge for the Hawks is whether or not they would even be interested in adding several long-term projects to their roster, when they just acquired Murray over the summer.
Of course, a third team could be added to the trade as to re-route Wiseman and Kuminga to a team more inclined to focus on the long-term.
Here, a team like the Sacramento Kings might make sense, especially if they ultimately accept that they don’t stand a strong chance of getting into the playoffs this season.
Moving off of Harrison Barnes, who is on an expiring contract, wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world, if they lean into a youth movement. Barnes would make a strong theoretical fit with Hunter in Atlanta, as the duo would be entirely interchangeable at the forward slots.
Naturally, getting three teams to agree to the parameters of a large trade is always tricky. But this would solve many of each franchise’s concerns.
Most importantly, Collins stands a chance at realizing his vast potential.
Unless noted otherwise, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball-Reference. All salary information via Spotrac. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.
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Morten Jensen, Contributor
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