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Tag: joe sirard

  • Record-breaking heat continues to create dangerous fire conditions across California

    Record-breaking heat continues to create dangerous fire conditions across California

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    A blistering heat wave blanketing parts of Southern California is expected to extend through the weekend, pushing temperatures well past 100 degrees in valleys and inland areas while continuing to create dangerous fire conditions across the state.

    Temperatures in the San Fernando and San Gabriel valleys on Saturday were expected to range from the mid-90s to a high of 105 degrees, while the Santa Clarita and Antelope valleys were likely to see highs of up to 115 degrees, officials said.

    “We could be approaching or exceeding all time record highs in Lancaster and Palmdale,” said Joe Sirard, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Oxnard.

    The broiling heat has shattered records up and down the state this week, with Palm Springs reaching 124 degrees on Friday, breaking the all-time record of 123 degrees set in 2021, 1995 and 1993.

    In Death Valley, the mercury soared to 127 degrees Friday — and Saturday it was expected to climb to 128 degrees, the weather service warned.

    Extreme heat, low humidity and strong winds prompted officials to issue a red flag warning through the weekend along the 5 Freeway corridor and in the Antelope Valley foothills, Sirard said.

    A man plays soccer against a wall in Venice Beach during a warm afternoon.

    (Wally Skalij / Los Angeles Times)

    “Fires are dangerous anywhere,” he said, “but this is really a heightened danger. [Fires] will spread rapidly, explosively, and it’s extremely dangerous for firefighters.”

    Hampered by scorching temperatures, firefighters were continuing to battle numerous wildfires across California on Saturday. The largest is the Basin fire in Fresno County, which started June 26. The fire, which has burned 14,027 acres, was 46% contained early Saturday.

    Crews were beginning to get the upper hand on the French fire, which began on the Fourth of July and had threatened the town of Mariposa outside Yosemite National Park. The 908-acre fire, which temporarily triggered mandatory evacuations and closed State Route 140 leading into the park, was 25% contained.

    In Southern California, a fire in Santa Barbara County had swelled to 4,673 acres on Saturday morning with zero containment, officials said. The Lake fire, burning near Zaca Lake in the Santa Ynez Valley, triggered an evacuation order early Saturday for an area north of Zaca Lake Road, east of Foxen Canyon Road and south of the Sisquoc River.

    Temperatures in the 90s and very low humidity overnight fueled the fire’s spread, while a layer of warm air over the fire had trapped smoke close to the ground, Scott Safechuck, a spokesman for the Santa Barbara County Fire Department, said in a post on the social media platform X.

    Farther south, the Rancho fire, which was reported Friday evening, burned about 13 acres of brush along the 101 Freeway near Thousand Oaks.

    Andy VanSciver, a spokesman for the Ventura County Fire Department, said in a video posted on X that the Rancho fire had been contained as of around 7 p.m. Friday. After stopping its forward progress, firefighters worked overnight to extinguish hot spots, he said.

    Charlie Hammond, left, and Pierre Mordacq relax in Venice Beach during a warm afternoon Tuesday.

    Charlie Hammond, left, and Pierre Mordacq relax in Venice Beach during a warm afternoon Tuesday.

    (Wally Skalij / Los Angeles Times)

    In Riverside County, firefighters had managed to get control of the 70-acre Hills fire near Juniper Springs, with 75% containment as of Saturday afternoon.

    Authorities had evacuated an area near where the fire broke out Friday afternoon at Juniper Flats Road and Mapes Road in Homeland. People affected by the evacuations were directed to Tahquitz High School in Hemet and the Riverside County Animal Shelter in San Jacinto.

    Meanwhile, residents of Los Angeles County’s valleys and inland areas are urged to stay indoors during the day if possible and avoid hiking, even in areas that might seem cool at sea level.

    “Even in the Santa Monica mountains, which are close to the coast, once you get above a certain elevation, 1,500 feet, it’s going to get very, very hot,” Sirard said.

    Courson Park Pool lifeguard Ellie Gonzales.

    Courson Park Pool lifeguard Ellie Gonzales, right, keeps an eye on swimmers as temperatures rose into the triple digits Wednesday in Palmdale.

    (Brian van der Brug / Los Angeles Times)

    Sirard said people should follow common-sense practices, like hydrating through the day and wearing lightweight and light-colored clothing. If you want to get some sun, head to the beaches, Sirard said, where temperatures should range from the low 70s to the low 80s.

    “If people want to beat the heat this weekend,” he said, “the coast is the place to go.”

    The city of Los Angeles has opened four cooling centers through the weekend where people can find relief from the heat:

    Lake View Terrace Recreation Center, 11075 Foothill Blvd., Lake View Terrace
    Mid-Valley Senior Citizen Center, 8825 Kester Ave., Panorama City
    Fred Roberts Recreation Center, 4700 S. Honduras St., Los Angeles
    Jim Gilliam Recreation Center, 400 S. La Brea Ave., Los Angeles

    Los Angeles County’s network of more than 150 cooling centers, which are located at libraries, parks and community centers, can be found here.

    In the Bay Area, cool weather along the coast gave way to blistering heat in northern Sonoma and Napa counties, where temperatures were expected to climb to 110 degrees, said Nicole Sarment, a meteorologist for the weather service in San Francisco.

    “There’s as much as a 50-degree variation, depending on where you are,” she said.

    San Francisco was forecast to see a high of 79 degrees Saturday before dipping to 58 at night, she said. In Oakland, temperatures were expected to range from 59 to 87 degrees, while San Jose was predicted to see a low of 64 and high of 99.

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    Matthew Ormseth

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  • ‘An absolute scorcher’: Sweltering heat, wildfire risk loom for July Fourth weekend

    ‘An absolute scorcher’: Sweltering heat, wildfire risk loom for July Fourth weekend

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    Blazing heat and increased wildfire risk will grip Southern California through the Fourth of July weekend and into early next week, with temperatures peaking above 115 degrees in desert areas Friday and forecasters issuing heat warnings and advisories throughout the region.

    Extreme temperatures and gusty winds will also combine with dry conditions to create a high risk of new wildfires throughout the state as the Thompson fire continues to burn across more than 3,500 acres north of Sacramento.

    “Tomorrow is going to be an absolute scorcher,” Joe Sirard, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service office in Oxnard, said Thursday morning. “It’s not your typical heat wave. This is a dangerous heat wave, this is a high-end heat wave. Very dangerous.”

    Heat warnings were in place Thursday for much of L.A. County’s valleys and deserts as well as the Santa Monica Mountains.

    Construction workers on a sidewalk improvement site toil as temperatures rose into the triple digits in Palmdale over the holiday.

    (Brian van der Brug / Los Angeles Times)

    The predicted highs for July 4 hovered around 106 degrees in the valleys, 103 in the lower mountains and 111 in desert areas, according to the National Weather Service. On Friday, temperatures are expected to soar as high as 110 to 112 degrees in the county’s valleys and mountains, and between 112 and 118 in the desert. The only parts of the county that aren’t experiencing extreme heat conditions, Sirard said, are coastal communities.

    Officials advised Southern California residents to take precautions against exposure to high temperatures, which can elevate the risk of heatstroke and heat exhaustion. The National Weather Service called on people to stay in air-conditioned spaces during the day and early evening, stay hydrated, check on neighbors and the elderly and avoid strenuous outdoor activities.

    “It’s just too hot,” Sirard said. “Just use common sense. It’s a dangerous heat wave and that’s why we have the heat warnings.”

    Jacque McDonald, 39, drove with her husband and their two young children from their home in Tarzana to Hermosa Beach on Thursday morning to beat the high heat in the San Fernando Valley.

    “We came here just because we know it’s going to be hot. I’m not about it,” McDonald said as crowds of people in bathing suits and sunglasses strolled by on the Strand and gray clouds helped keep the temperature down. “We have a pool at our complex, but we figured it would be packed. So we planned to come down here to the beach.”

    A woman holds a sign that reads "Iron Man" as she is lifted into the air by many people.

    Annie Seawright celebrates while being carried by people after winning the Hermosa Beach Ironman competition on July 4.

    (Michael Blackshire / Los Angeles Times)

    Just before noon, dozens of visitors shuffled down the dirt path at Eaton Canyon Natural Area, a popular L.A. County park in Altadena with a stream and a waterfall.

    At the trail’s first water crossing, Mercedes Monje, 29, of Los Angeles sat along the bank with her partner and 2-year-old son splashing in the water while the rest of her family sat nearby.
    Monje said her family usually hits a beach or river on the Fourth of July.

    They originally planned Thursday to go to the East Fork of the San Gabriel River. But when they arrived about 8 a.m., they were told by authorities that it was full.

    “We’re a little bit disappointed that we couldn’t be where we actually had planned to go, but we’re trying to make the best out of it,” Monje said.

    Meanwhile, the risk of wildfires is high in inland areas, as is the chance that even small fires could quickly become larger conflagrations, given the extreme conditions.

    “We’re expecting high heat today, which increases the chances for fire growth,” said David Acuna, a Cal Fire battalion chief. Fire departments across California urged people to resist the temptation to celebrate the Fourth of July by shooting off fireworks that could spark new blazes.

    In Butte County, the Thompson fire remained just 7% contained as of Thursday morning, Acuna said, though it had remained steady at 3,568 acres overnight. He said 1,962 personnel, 20 helicopters, 214 engines, 46 dozers, 43 water tenders and 37 crews were fighting the fire. At its peak, about 12,000 structures were evacuated, affecting about 28,000 people.

    “The firefighters on the line will continue to remain hydrated and ready in the event the fire acreage increases,” Acuna said, adding that though some have been downgraded, “a number of fire evacuations and warnings” remained in place near the blaze Thursday.

    In Simi Valley, the Sharp fire was holding at 133 acres, and the containment was updated from 15% to 60% Thursday morning, according to Ventura County Fire Department spokesman Andy VanSciver.

    Airn Barnes enjoys a cool fountain at Courson Park Pool as temperatures rose into the triple digits in Palmdale.

    Airn Barnes enjoys a cool fountain at Courson Park Pool as temperatures rose into the triple digits in Palmdale.

    (Brian van der Brug / Los Angeles Times)

    No structures have been damaged by the fire, which at one point prompted an evacuation order for 60 nearby homes and an evacuation warning for an additional 340. The orders and warnings were lifted Wednesday evening, VanSciver said.

    “The containment lines have been holding and they’re being reinforced,” he said, adding that he didn’t anticipate wind conditions to cause the blaze to spread. “We have enough resources on hand to handle it.”

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    Connor Sheets, Jaclyn Cosgrove

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  • How did forecasters get it so right predicting L.A.’s biggest storm of the winter?

    How did forecasters get it so right predicting L.A.’s biggest storm of the winter?

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    When it came to forecasting L.A.’s biggest winter storm of the season, local meteorologists had a secret weapon: experience.

    For sure, there was plenty of computer modeling available to indicate the Southland was in for a severe — and potentially dangerous — soaking. But based on their expertise, forecasters at the National Weather Service in Oxnard correctly anticipated that even the machine-calculated, eye-popping rain totals were probably an underprediction.

    When it comes to such a serious storm event, getting the forecast as close to correct as possible isn’t just a matter of pride. Forecasters go to great lengths to assess a storm’s strength so they can accurately inform the public about the dangers it may pose.

    “We don’t want to cry wolf and say, ‘Oh, we’re gonna get record amounts of rain, catastrophic flooding,’ and then you get about half what you think. And people are like, ‘That was no big deal,’” said Joe Sirard, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service office in Oxnard. “And then they’ll tune us out. We don’t want that to happen.”

    In this case, “We went a little bit above some of the models and, you know, we were right,” Sirard said.

    A person walks under an umbrella at L.A. Live in Los Angeles.

    (Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times)

    Sirard said the first indications of a potentially significant rain event emerged about 10 to 12 days ahead of the storm’s actual arrival early this month.

    To get an idea of a storm’s possible strength, forecasters look at data generated by supercomputers that produce “ensemble forecasts” made from a series of model runs based on slightly tweaked initial conditions, Sirard said.

    But the forecast is quite uncertain that far out.

    Say you’re trying to map out a forecast 10 days from now, when it looks like a storm is brewing. Half of the model runs might suggest 5 inches of rain will fall over a three-day period, but the other half could suggest less precipitation — sometimes significantly so.

    Data like that might be too noisy to say anything with a great degree of confidence.

    But as the storm draws closer, those models will start to align a bit more, giving forecasters a better idea of what to reasonably expect.

    “And so that would increase our confidence levels,” Sirard said. “Once you get in that seven-day window … if these ensemble models are still showing, say, 60% hypothetically, 5 or more inches in a three-day period — already, our antennas are up. And it’s like, ‘OK, we got a potential for something significant coming in.’”

    As forecasters get even closer to the storm’s arrival, they can employ higher-resolution, shorter-range forecast models.

    Mud and debris flow covers part of a parked car.

    Mud and debris flow from hills caused by heavy rain covered part of a parked car and knocked down the garage door of a home in the 10400 block of West Quito Lane in Los Angeles.

    (Irfan Khan / Los Angeles Times)

    At a certain point, there was enough confidence for forecasters to post an attention-grabbing warning on social media on Feb. 1, three days before the storm’s arrival: “We are expecting a major storm with dangerous, even life-threatening impacts!”

    In subsequent days, local law enforcement and elected officials — from the city of Los Angeles to Santa Barbara County — held media briefings about the dire forecasts that included National Weather Service meteorologists.

    Such coordination between meteorologists and politicians hasn’t always happened. Unforgettably, although the National Weather Service office in Monterey issued a flood watch three days before a significant storm landed on Dec. 31, 2022, San Francisco officials were caught unprepared by a record deluge that flooded swaths of low-lying parts of the city and left residents and business owners furious.

    There have also been memorable misses. Fourteen years ago, an unexpectedly powerful, slow-moving rainstorm unleashed a torrent of mud that inundated more than 40 homes in La Cañada Flintridge, a far cry from an initial forecast of a light to moderate rainstorm.

    The models for the storm earlier this month did adjust in the days leading up to the event. Initial projections about three to five days ahead of the storm suggested Santa Barbara and Ventura counties would get hit the hardest. But as it drew closer, there were growing indications that Los Angeles County would bear the brunt, said Ryan Kittell, another meteorologist in the weather service’s Oxnard office.

    That ended up being the case.

    The weather service also made late adjustments to what the computer models were showing. Over a four-day period, models said to expect 8 to 10 inches of rain in the San Gabriel Mountains and 4 to 5 inches of rain in downtown L.A.

    Meteorologists thought the computer models were underpredicting the projected rainfall totals, so they added a couple of inches to that forecast, Sirard said.

    Their instincts proved correct. The weather service’s final forecast was for 8 to 14 inches of rain in the mountains and foothills through Feb. 6. And that was very accurate — the highest rainfall amount recorded in the San Gabriel Mountains over that period was 13.86 inches.

    “A lot of us have been here for 25 years. So we know the weather patterns of what can cause the maximum amount of rainfall here,” Sirard said. “You get the high amount of water vapor in the atmosphere, you get the strong jetstream aloft nearby, you have the strong southeast to south low-level flow — all that moisture throughout the atmosphere, from the ground to 20,000 feet or more — all gets squeezed up into the mountains.”

    In some areas, the storm proved to be a rainmaker more prolific than even experienced meteorologists had anticipated.

    Before the storm began, the weather service had forecast 6.37 inches of rain would fall over a four-day period in downtown Los Angeles. Some people might’ve been hard-pressed to believe such an astonishing amount: On average, downtown gets 14.25 inches of rain in an entire year.

    For the four-day period ending at 9 p.m. Feb. 6, 8.66 inches of rain fell on downtown L.A.

    Still, the range of the forecast totals helped accurately guide the kinds of warnings that needed to be issued. Once forecast totals in lower-lying cities reach “5, 6, 7, 8 inches, the impacts are pretty much the same” in terms of flooding and landslide risk, Kittell said.

    That messaging helped fuel substantial storm preparedness, so officials and residents were not caught completely off guard when land began sliding in a number of hillside communities across L.A. County, including north of Hollywood, Beverly Hills and Westwood, as well as in Baldwin Hills and Hacienda Heights.

    Pre-storm warnings also let residents know to stock and stack sandbags. And officials readied response teams like swift-water rescue crews that were needed across Southern California.

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    Rong-Gong Lin II

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  • Heavy Southern California rain floods roads, and thunderstorms are still possible

    Heavy Southern California rain floods roads, and thunderstorms are still possible

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    Heavy rainfall early Monday brought some localized and urban flooding across Los Angeles County, making for a treacherous — or at least slow — morning drive for many commuters.

    The latest in a string of wet winter storms has much of Southern California under a flood advisory through 9:30 a.m. Monday, with the possibility for thunderstorms and heavy showers still in the forecast through the evening, according to the National Weather Service.

    “We had a quarter- to half-inch of rain in an hour across much of the area, which did result in a lot of urbanized flooding and a lot of ponding on the roadways,” said Joe Sirard, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Oxnard. Reports of roadway flooding hindered commutes across the region, including a majority of lanes shut down on the southbound 405 Freeway in Long Beach.

    But by 8 a.m. Monday, Sirard said, much of the worst had passed.

    “It looks like the heavier rain is moving out of the area,” Sirard said. “We do still have a chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms today … what that means is there still could be localized, brief heavy rains.”

    The flood advisory, however, remains in effect through 9 a.m. for southeast Los Angeles County as well as parts of Riverside and San Bernardino counties. For San Diego County’s coast and Orange County’s foothills, the warning has been issued through 9:30 a.m.

    County officials issued an evacuation warning for some Topanga Canyon residents that lasts through Tuesday morning, citing concerns about mudslides.

    “Any time we get this kind of rain, there’s always that possibility,” Sirard said, noting that recent burn scars, like in that area, are particularly vulnerable. But as of early Monday, he said the rain rates hadn’t yet reached levels to prompt flash flood warnings there or elsewhere in the region.

    Rain totals for Monday are expected to reach almost 3 inches in some foothill communities, and up to an inch across the L.A. metro area. Localized flooding will remain a concern from potential scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, but the widespread heavy rains have mostly moved out of the area, Sirard said.

    “If the roads are wet and it’s raining, you want to slow down and use caution,” Sirard said.

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    Grace Toohey

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  • Antelope Valley expecting 4th morning in a row with freezing temps

    Antelope Valley expecting 4th morning in a row with freezing temps

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    Freezing temperatures are again expected across the Antelope Valley early Thursday, the fourth morning in a row with weather officials warning of the potential for dangerously cold weather. 
    

    Since Monday, the Antelope Valley has been under a freeze warning during the early morning hours, said Joe Sirard, a National Weather Service meteorologist based in Oxnard.
    

    “This will be the fourth night in a row of subfreezing temperatures out there.”
    

    Sirard said the freezes were slightly early in the season, but not entirely unprecedented.
    

    Low temperatures are forecast at 30 degrees from 3 a.m. to 8 a.m. Thursday. The freeze warning is also in effect for the Salinas Valley in coastal Central California.
    

    “There’s always a chance that pipes could freeze if people don’t prepare,” Sirard said. He said sensitive vegetation could also be at risk in the cold, and the official alert noted that “extended exposure to cold can cause hypothermia for animals and people.”
    

    It wasn’t immediately clear how shelters in the area were preparing, if at all, for another morning of frigid temperatures.
    

    The Los Angeles Homeless Service Authority has a winter shelter program that began Wednesday, but the two participating shelters located in the Antelope Valley — one in Lancaster and one in Palmdale — were not scheduled to not be open until later this week or next month.

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    Grace Toohey

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