If you went back to the start of the 2025 baseball season with the knowledge that the Astros would have 26 players on the IL including a league most 18 at one time, lose +17 WAR in player injuries, see multiple starting pitchers go down with serious elbow problems, and lose your closer for the last month of the season, you probably would have imagined a team close to the bottom of the AL and a completely uncompetitive season.
You’d be wrong.
Despite all of those problems and an unbelievably anemic offense, the Astros entered game 161 with a chance to still make the postseason. Two weeks prior to that, they were leading the AL West. When you reconstruct the memory of the season in your head, that should offer at least a bit of comfort and, perhaps more importantly, perspective.
We may all feel defeated after so much heartbreak, but the reality is this team played well beyond what it had on the field. Will there need to be changes? Absolutely. As former Rockets coach Jeff Van Gundy was fond of saying, you don’t ignore in victory what you would not ignore in defeat. This team has its share of issues that must be addressed, but in the end, this season could have been much, much worse. Now, let’s figure out what to do next.
Does Framber Valdez return?
The highest profile free agent for the Astros this offseason is the lefty starter who may or may not have intentionally thrown at his catcher this year. Valdez has tons of talent and induces ground balls at an insane rate, but for two straight seasons, he has fallen off in the second half of the season. He has also become known for his occasional inability to rein in his emotions on the mound.
But, he is a unique talent that will have plenty of suitors if the Astros choose not to lean hard into their pursuit of Valdez. If this last season has taught us anything it is that you can absolutely never have too many pitchers, but at what cost? Valdez is going to want to be paid in what should be the last big deal of his career, but he’s about to turn 32 and it would make sense for the Astros to transition to younger talent at this point even if it hurts them in the short term. Don’t expect them to go all out for Valdez.
How do you address the injury problems?
How is really the right interrogative because, at this point, we aren’t sure who is to blame. The rash of injuries, particularly serious ones to pitching, was hard to fathom and could point to the player development staff. Then there’s the fact that multiple players clearly came back before they were ready putting return to play protocols and team medical staff in the crosshairs.
But, there are so many deep, complex issues when it comes to pitching injuries in baseball from max effort throws and spin rate to young players pushing too hard too soon — kids are getting Tommy John surgery in high school now. All of Major League Baseball is facing the epidemic of pitching injuries and there are no good answers yet. At the bare minimum, the Astros need to evaluate their entire medical process and determine how they can limit re-injuries and make sure they are not pushing guys either in development or in returning from injury.
What can they do about the scoring woes?
The Astros were in the bottom third of baseball in runs scored, but they were in the top 10 in hits. That points to two truths about this roster. First, they don’t hit home runs. They were 16th in homers this year even in a ballpark like Daikan with it’s short porch in left field. Second, they were awful with runners in scoring position. The Astros were 26th in on-base percentage with runners in scoring position, 22nd in slugging, and 11th in strikeouts.
This is way too much of a free swinging team for a group that doesn’t hit the long ball with any kind of frequency. If you are hitting close to 300 home runs as a team for the season, you can go up there and be aggressive. But, if you don’t even get to 200, you better show more plate discipline. This was a focus of the team last offseason and yet they got worse. Don’t be surprised if hitting coaches take the brunt of the blame, but this will be on the players to correct and improve.
What does the infield look like next year?
Maybe even more than the pitching staff, the way the Astros deal with the infield in the offseason will be fascinating to watch. Jeremy Peña is locked at shortstop and it is clear with Carlos Correa’s return, he isn’t moving off of third base. You would think Christian Walker, who still has two seasons left on his deal with the team, would be guaranteed a spot at first, but his hitting was sub par even if he remained very good defensively, and Isaac Paredes, who was the much better hitter last year, finds himself without a position.
Moving Paredes to first would make a lot of sense, but what would happen to Walker? He can’t just DH because of Yordan Alvarez. There was talk about Paredes playing second, but with defense a high priority, that might not be the best option. Never mind the fact that Brice Matthews is absolutely banging on the door of the major league. And we haven’t even mentioned Jose Altuve yet. Oof.
Of all the things GM Dana Brown needs to figure out this winter, the infield might be the most complicated.
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