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Tag: jobs report

  • US economy added 50,000 jobs in December, capping off one of the weakest years of job gains in decades

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    (CNN) — Hiring slowed more than expected in December, a sluggish end to what was one of the weakest years of job growth in decades, a dynamic that further amplified America’s affordability crisis.

    The US economy added an estimated 50,000 jobs last month, slowing from a downwardly revised 56,000 jobs added in November, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Friday.

    Still, the unemployment rate edged lower to 4.4% from a revised 4.5% in November.

    Economists were expecting a net gain of 55,000 jobs in December and an unemployment rate of 4.5%, according to FactSet consensus estimates.

    With December’s estimated job gains, which are subject to revision, the US economy added just 584,000 jobs last year. Outside of recession years, that’s the weakest annual job growth seen since 2003, BLS data shows.

    And those meager gains were driven almost entirely by a couple of industries.

    “The United States is in a jobless boom,” Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, said in an interview with CNN. “There was almost no hiring in 2025 … we would be talking about job losses in 2025, if it weren’t for health care and social assistance.”

    Unemployment becoming a ‘permanent state’

    In addition to the tepid gains recorded for December, October and November’s payroll estimates were revised lower by a combined 76,000 jobs.

    Even still, the meager pace of employment growth is actually even weaker than the December report shows – something that will become clearer in the January jobs report.

    That’s when the BLS will release the results of its annual benchmarking process that squares up the more real-time survey-drawn monthly estimates with the heavily lagged (but more accurate) payroll figures from employers’ quarterly tax filings. The preliminary estimate, released in August, was that 911,000 fewer jobs were likely added for the year ended in March 2025.

    “With these revisions, the story of payroll employment in 2025 will convert, ex post facto, from ‘snail-like growth’ to ‘recessionary-like conditions,’” Brian Bethune, a financial economist and professor at Boston College, wrote in commentary on Friday.

    This low-hire, low-fire labor market has resulted in more people on the outside looking in. In December, the share of people who were unemployed for 27 weeks or more rose to 26%.

    That indicates “unemployment is increasingly becoming a permanent state rather than a temporary transition,” Nicole Bachaud, ZipRecruiter’s labor economist, wrote in a note on Friday.

    Still, Friday’s report did have a couple of bright spots, which included stronger-than-expected wage gains. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% for the month and picked up to 3.8% for the year – a modest gain over inflation.

    A deep hiring chill since April

    The labor market was already slowing, heading into 2025, as it continued to normalize following the seismic economic impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic.

    However, the gradual cooling turned sharply into a freeze by the spring. About 85% of the year’s job gains occurred in the first four months of the year, Long noted.

    In April, President Donald Trump made his “Liberation Day” announcement of a massive suite of broad and steep tariffs on many of the goods imported into the country.

    That and other dramatic policy shifts sent uncertainty surging higher and tossed an ice bath on sentiment in the process.

    Tariffs, and the uncertainty surrounding them, were one of three big factors that contributed to the “hiring recession” that engulfed pretty much all industries last year, Long said in an interview with CNN.

    In addition to tariffs, jobs continued to be scaled back in industries that over-hired during the pandemic. Additionally, the rise of artificial intelligence played a role as well, she said.

    “What happened with AI is firms needed to use their cash to invest in AI, and so they pulled back on hiring in order to free up that cash,” she said. “It wasn’t so much like, ‘I’m going to use the robot to replace the human.’ It was, ‘I need the dollars to go to tech investment instead of human investment.’”

    What resulted were muted employment gains – or even outright losses –across most industries.

    The lone exceptions were health care – an industry growing as a result of an aging population – and leisure and hospitality, which has reaped some of the spoils from an increasingly bifurcated economy, where well-heeled Americans see continued wealth gains while a larger share of middle- and lower-income households are experiencing increased strain.

    That was again indeed the case in December.

    Leisure and hospitality businesses saw net job gains of 47,000, while health care and social assistance added 38,500 jobs, BLS data showed. Jobs were shed across goods-producing businesses, particularly those in manufacturing, as well as retail trade (where seasonal hiring wasn’t as flush as in years past)

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    Alicia Wallace and CNN

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  • The US economy added 119,000 jobs in September, but unemployment rose to a nearly four-year high

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    (CNN) — A long-awaited jobs report offered a mixed picture of the US labor market.

    The economy added 119,000 jobs in September, an unexpected rebound for the labor market — but it comes as the overall economy shows signs of slowing.

    Economists were expecting 50,000 jobs to have been added and an unemployment rate that remained at 4.3%, according to FactSet.

    Delayed for seven weeks due to the government shutdown, the latest snapshot of America’s job market showed that unemployment rose in September to the highest level in nearly four years.

    In addition, August’s tepid job gains of 22,000 were revised to a job loss of 4,000 jobs and July was revised down by 7,000 jobs, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Thursday.

    The health care and social assistance sector continued to drive overall employment growth. Those sectors added an estimated 57,100 jobs in September, accounting for nearly half of the overall gains. Leisure and hospitality contributed 47,000 jobs during a month with unseasonably warm weather.

    Jobs were lost in sectors such as transportation and warehousing (-25,300), temporary help services (-15,900) and manufacturing (-6,000).

    Although the September employment data has been on the shelf since early October, it provides a critical snapshot of the labor market at a time when tariffs, stubborn inflation and elevated interest rates continue to slow the US economy.

    Summer of job losses

    Plus, Thursday’s report might very well be the last clean jobs report for a couple of months, since the shutdown mucked up the finely tuned process of data collection and analysis during October and part of November. The BLS on Wednesday announced that there will not be a separate October jobs report published but instead some of that data will be included in the November report scheduled for December 16.

    Despite the stronger-than-expected September gains, this year is still on pace for the weakest employment growth since the pandemic and, before that, the Great Financial Crisis.

    “The job market was really weak in the summer, and it didn’t improve much in September,” said Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Credit Union. “What we learned today is that both June and August had negative job growth, so, shedding jobs; 119,000 is pretty good for September, but when you step back, the average (monthly job gain) of the past four months is in the low 40,000s.”

    “So, it looks very weak,” she added.

    Unemployment, a closely watched recession indicator, ticked higher in September, rising to the highest rate since October 2021.

    However, driving the jobless rate higher was an increase in the labor force – primarily an uplift in more people looking for work, versus a sharp increase in layoffs, BLS data shows.

    Low-fire, low-hire, low-opportunity market

    The job gains remain heavily concentrated. Two sectors – health care and social assistance, and leisure and hospitality – accounted for 87% of September’s job growth.

    But in a labor market that’s been in a low-hire, low-fire slog, there are also few opportunities for those seeking work. On average, it’s taking people six months to find work, according to the latest BLS data.

    The latest unemployment claims data supports that trend: In a separate report on Thursday, the Labor Department reported that an estimated 1.974 million people filed continuing claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended November 8, hitting a fresh four-year high.

    Initial claims, which are considered the best proxy for layoff activity, fell to 220,000 last week, remaining well below more concerning thresholds (300,000 to 400,000 range, consistently).

    “If I had to characterize it, it still looks a lot like ‘no-hire, no-fire,’” Long said. “I do worry, given the number of industries that are starting to fire, that this is starting to look like ‘no-hire, start-to-fire.’”

    ‘Cold water’ for a Fed cut

    Despite the mixed bag of data, the September report “could throw cold water” on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates further when it meets in December, Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide, wrote in a note on Thursday.

    “The sharp rebound in employment gains, up 119,000 in September following the downwardly revised negative 4,000 print in August soothes concerns that the labor market was on the precipice of a large downturn and removes urgency for another rate cut,” she wrote.

    Still, because of the historic government shutdown, the September jobs report will be the freshest official monthly employment snapshot available when the Fed makes its next interest rate decision on December 10. The partial October and full November data won’t come out until the following week.

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    Alicia Wallace and CNN

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  • Federal government shutdown delays jobs report release, adding economic uncertainty

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    The jobs report, which usually comes out on the first Friday of every month, will not be released today. Two private surveys that came out this week show *** wide range of numbers. The payroll provider ADP issued its monthly employment data, which does not include government agencies, showing the economy lost 32,000 jobs in September, while another survey by FactSet suggests 50,000 jobs were created at an already uncertain time in the economy. This is making things even more unclear. If the official government jobs report is delayed for several weeks, it could create *** Challenge for the Federal Reserve as they decide to change key interest rates which impact mortgages, loans, and credit cards. We’ve seen jobs reports delayed before during other government shutdowns in 2013 and 1995, the release of the jobs report was paused, but during the longest government shutdown in US history from 2018 to 2019, the jobs report was released, and that was during President Trump’s first term in office at the White House. I’m Rachel Herzheimer.

    Federal government shutdown delays jobs report release, adding economic uncertainty

    The ongoing federal government shutdown postponed the release of the monthly jobs report, adding to economic uncertainty.

    Updated: 4:35 AM PDT Oct 3, 2025

    Editorial Standards ⓘ

    The federal government shutdown has reached its third day, with senators preparing to vote again on short-term budget proposals from both parties, which have failed multiple times.Bipartisan talks continue, but Republicans remain firm in their demand that the government reopen before addressing Democratic health care demands, which include extending credits for cheaper private health care and reversing Medicaid cuts. The jobs report, usually released on the first Friday of every month, will not be published today due to the shutdown. Two private surveys released this week show differing data: payroll provider ADP reported a loss of 32,000 jobs in September, while FactSet suggested 50,000 jobs were created.The delayed report adds to the uncertainty in an already unclear economic situation and could pose a challenge to the Federal Reserve in deciding interest rate changes, which impact mortgages, loans, and credit cards.Previous shutdowns in 2013 and 1995 also saw delays in jobs reports, although the report was released during the longest shutdown in U.S. history, under President Donald Trump’s first term.Keep watching for the latest from the Washington News Bureau:

    WASHINGTON —

    The federal government shutdown has reached its third day, with senators preparing to vote again on short-term budget proposals from both parties, which have failed multiple times.

    Bipartisan talks continue, but Republicans remain firm in their demand that the government reopen before addressing Democratic health care demands, which include extending credits for cheaper private health care and reversing Medicaid cuts.

    The jobs report, usually released on the first Friday of every month, will not be published today due to the shutdown.

    Two private surveys released this week show differing data: payroll provider ADP reported a loss of 32,000 jobs in September, while FactSet suggested 50,000 jobs were created.

    The delayed report adds to the uncertainty in an already unclear economic situation and could pose a challenge to the Federal Reserve in deciding interest rate changes, which impact mortgages, loans, and credit cards.

    Previous shutdowns in 2013 and 1995 also saw delays in jobs reports, although the report was released during the longest shutdown in U.S. history, under President Donald Trump’s first term.

    Keep watching for the latest from the Washington News Bureau:


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  • Forget the Jobs Report. This Chart Shows the Labor Market Is Deteriorating

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    Want more stock market and economic analysis from Phil Rosen directly in your inbox? Subscribe to Opening Bell Daily’s newsletter. 

    The government shutdown means investors will go without their usual guide to the labor market.

    The Bureau of Labor Statistics is unlikely to release the September jobs report as scheduled today, which leaves markets and policymakers without one of their most closely-watched data releases of the month. 

    But even when the government is open, those numbers aren’t exactly reliable. 

    A combination of political noise and inaccurate reporting has undermined credibility — response rates have collapsed, massive revisions are expected, and “official” numbers fluctuate wildly. 

    That makes alternative indicators more critical. 

    And right now, Google Search trends offers one of the clearest windows into worker sentiment and labor market conditions. 

    The charts below illustrate two decades of search volume for the terms “part time,” “second job,” “job security” and “new job.”

    All four have spiked to record highs — above both 2008 and pandemic levels — signaling workers are hustling for more hours, looking to supplement income, and worrying over stability.  

    The shape and trajectories for each search term mirrors 2008 and 2020, but the volume is far higher. 

    While asset prices continue to surge and the Federal Reserve is expected to continue cutting interest rates, the outlook for jobs remains fragile. 

    Earlier this week, the private payroll provider ADP reported a decline of 32,000 jobs in September, below economists’ expectations for an increase of 45,000. That also accompanied a downward revision to the August data from a gain of 54,000 to a loss of 3,000. 

    “It is more difficult than usual to measure the state of the U.S. labor market, with gold-standard economic indicators produced by the federal government unavailable during the shutdown,” said Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank. “The alternative data sources imply that the job market is still in a low hire, low fire, low gear mode.”

    Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren on Thursday called on the Trump administration to release the September jobs report, according to a CNN report. 

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    Phil Rosen

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  • How the government shutdown disrupts critical economic data

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    The government shutdown that began Wednesday will deprive policymakers and investors of economic data vital to their decision-making at a time of unusual uncertainty about the direction of the U.S. economy.The absence will be felt almost immediately, as the government’s monthly jobs report scheduled for release Friday will likely be delayed. A weekly report on the number of Americans seeking unemployment benefits — a proxy for layoffs that is typically published on Thursdays — will also be postponed.If the shutdown is short-lived, it won’t be very disruptive. But if the release of economic data is delayed for several weeks or longer, it could pose challenges, particularly for the Federal Reserve. The Fed is grappling with where to set a key interest rate at a time of conflicting signals, with inflation running above its 2% target and hiring nearly ground to a halt, driving the unemployment rate higher in August.The Fed typically cuts this rate when unemployment rises, but raises it — or at least leaves it unchanged — when inflation is rising too quickly. It’s possible the Fed will have little new federal economic data to analyze by its next meeting on Oct. 28-29, when it is widely expected to reduce its rate again.“The job market had been a source of real strength in the economy but has been slowing down considerably the past few months,” said Michael Linden, senior policy fellow at the left-leaning Washington Center for Equitable Growth. “It would be very good to know if that slowdown was continuing, accelerating, or reversing.”The Fed cut its rate by a quarter-point earlier this month and signaled it was likely to do so twice more this year. Fed officials said they would keep a close eye on how inflation and unemployment evolve, but that depends on the data being available.A key inflation report is scheduled for Oct. 15 and the government’s monthly retail sales report is slated for release the next day.“We’re in a meeting-by-meeting situation, and we’re going to be looking at the data,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said during a news conference earlier this month.The economic picture has recently gotten cloudier. Despite slower hiring, there are signs that overall economic growth may be picking up. Consumers have stepped up their shopping and the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta estimates the economy likely expanded at a healthy clip in the July-September quarter, after a large gain in the April-June period.A key question for the Fed is whether that growth can revive the job market, which this Friday’s report might have helped illustrate. Economists had forecast another month of weak hiring, with just 50,000 new positions added, according to a survey by FactSet. The unemployment rate was projected to stay at a still-low 4.3%.On Wall Street, investors obsess over the monthly jobs reports, typically issued the first Friday of every month. It’s a crucial indicator of the economy’s health and provides insights into how the Fed might adjust interest rates, which affects the cost of borrowing and influences how investors allocate their money.So far, investors don’t seem fazed by the shutdown. The broad S&P 500 stock index rose slightly Wednesday to an all-time high.Many businesses also rely on government data to gauge how the economy is faring. The Commerce Department’s monthly report on retail sales, for example, is a comprehensive look at the health of U.S. consumers and can influence whether companies make plans to expand or shrink their operations and workforces.For the time being, the Fed, economists, and investors will likely focus more on private data.On Wednesday, the payroll provider ADP issued its monthly employment data, which showed that businesses cut 32,000 jobs in September — a signal the economy is slowing. Still, ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said her firm’s report “was not intended to be a replacement” for government statistics.The ADP data does not capture what’s happening at government agencies, for example — an area of the economy that could be significantly affected by a lengthy shutdown.“Using a portfolio of private sector and government data gives you a better chance of capturing a very complicated economy in a complex world,” she said.The Fed will remain open no matter how long the shutdown lasts, because it funds itself from earnings on the government bonds and other securities it owns. It will continue to provide its monthly snapshots of industrial production, which includes mining, manufacturing, and utility output. The next industrial production report will be released Oct. 17.

    NEW YORK —

    The government shutdown that began Wednesday will deprive policymakers and investors of economic data vital to their decision-making at a time of unusual uncertainty about the direction of the U.S. economy.

    The absence will be felt almost immediately, as the government’s monthly jobs report scheduled for release Friday will likely be delayed. A weekly report on the number of Americans seeking unemployment benefits — a proxy for layoffs that is typically published on Thursdays — will also be postponed.

    If the shutdown is short-lived, it won’t be very disruptive. But if the release of economic data is delayed for several weeks or longer, it could pose challenges, particularly for the Federal Reserve. The Fed is grappling with where to set a key interest rate at a time of conflicting signals, with inflation running above its 2% target and hiring nearly ground to a halt, driving the unemployment rate higher in August.

    The Fed typically cuts this rate when unemployment rises, but raises it — or at least leaves it unchanged — when inflation is rising too quickly. It’s possible the Fed will have little new federal economic data to analyze by its next meeting on Oct. 28-29, when it is widely expected to reduce its rate again.

    “The job market had been a source of real strength in the economy but has been slowing down considerably the past few months,” said Michael Linden, senior policy fellow at the left-leaning Washington Center for Equitable Growth. “It would be very good to know if that slowdown was continuing, accelerating, or reversing.”

    The Fed cut its rate by a quarter-point earlier this month and signaled it was likely to do so twice more this year. Fed officials said they would keep a close eye on how inflation and unemployment evolve, but that depends on the data being available.

    A key inflation report is scheduled for Oct. 15 and the government’s monthly retail sales report is slated for release the next day.

    “We’re in a meeting-by-meeting situation, and we’re going to be looking at the data,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said during a news conference earlier this month.

    The economic picture has recently gotten cloudier. Despite slower hiring, there are signs that overall economic growth may be picking up. Consumers have stepped up their shopping and the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta estimates the economy likely expanded at a healthy clip in the July-September quarter, after a large gain in the April-June period.

    A key question for the Fed is whether that growth can revive the job market, which this Friday’s report might have helped illustrate. Economists had forecast another month of weak hiring, with just 50,000 new positions added, according to a survey by FactSet. The unemployment rate was projected to stay at a still-low 4.3%.

    On Wall Street, investors obsess over the monthly jobs reports, typically issued the first Friday of every month. It’s a crucial indicator of the economy’s health and provides insights into how the Fed might adjust interest rates, which affects the cost of borrowing and influences how investors allocate their money.

    So far, investors don’t seem fazed by the shutdown. The broad S&P 500 stock index rose slightly Wednesday to an all-time high.

    Many businesses also rely on government data to gauge how the economy is faring. The Commerce Department’s monthly report on retail sales, for example, is a comprehensive look at the health of U.S. consumers and can influence whether companies make plans to expand or shrink their operations and workforces.

    For the time being, the Fed, economists, and investors will likely focus more on private data.

    On Wednesday, the payroll provider ADP issued its monthly employment data, which showed that businesses cut 32,000 jobs in September — a signal the economy is slowing. Still, ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said her firm’s report “was not intended to be a replacement” for government statistics.

    The ADP data does not capture what’s happening at government agencies, for example — an area of the economy that could be significantly affected by a lengthy shutdown.

    “Using a portfolio of private sector and government data gives you a better chance of capturing a very complicated economy in a complex world,” she said.

    The Fed will remain open no matter how long the shutdown lasts, because it funds itself from earnings on the government bonds and other securities it owns. It will continue to provide its monthly snapshots of industrial production, which includes mining, manufacturing, and utility output. The next industrial production report will be released Oct. 17.

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  • MAGAnomics Isn’t Working

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    A dismal jobs report affirms earlier warnings about the economic impact of Donald Trump’s tariffs, immigration restrictions, and DOGE-led firings.

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    John Cassidy

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  • Job growth stalls: US economy added just 22,000 jobs in August and unemployment rose to highest level since 2021

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    (CNN) — The US job market is stalling out.

    Job growth slowed to a crawl in August, and the unemployment rate rose to its highest level in nearly four years, indicating the US labor market is growing stagnant.

    The economy added just 22,000 jobs last month and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3% from 4.2%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

    August’s job report also included a downward revision to June, which showed the US economy lost 13,000 jobs that month. It’s the first negative employment month since December 2020, and it brings to an end what was the second-longest period of employment expansion on record.

    “The Great American jobs machine has stalled,” Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FwdBonds, wrote in commentary issued Friday.

    July’s job gains were revised up slightly to 79,000 from 73,000, according to the report.

    Economists were expecting that the economy added 76,500 jobs last month and that the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, according to FactSet.

    The Dow rose 119 points, or 0.26%, Friday morning. The S&P 500 rose 0.41% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq gained 0.63%, after the weaker-than-expected jobs data boosted expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September to stimulate the economy.

    Uncertainty stymies hiring

    Through August, monthly job gains average 74,750, BLS data shows. Excluding the pandemic, that’s the slowest average monthly gain for that January to August time frame since 2010, when the United States was still licking its wounds from the Great Recession.

    “The addition of just 22,000 jobs in August, along with net downward revisions of previous months, shows an economy straining under the immense economic uncertainty and significant policy changes of 2025,” Laura Ullrich, Indeed’s director of economic research for North America, wrote Friday.

    Uncertainty has swelled since the beginning of the year in large part around how President Donald Trump’s sweeping policies on tariffs, immigration and federal spending would shake out through the economy.

    Hiring efforts, already stymied in part by still-high interest rates, have been largely shelved due to the unknowns.

    “They don’t know where things are going, whether it’s through tariffs or other dynamics – interest rates still aren’t coming down – so I think a lot of companies are just saying, ‘not now,’” Ron Hetrick, senior labor economist at employment analytics company Lightcast, told CNN in an interview. “I think there’s somebody probably out there who’d like to hire, but not in this environment.”

    “They’re waiting for more certainty to occur,” he said.

    Narrow job growth means fewer opportunities

    The low-hire, low-fire environment is leaving workers and job hunters with few opportunities.

    And more workers are seeking those opportunities, as labor market re-entrants helped to lift the unemployment rate last month.

    The labor force, which shrank for three months in a row, increased by 436,000 people in August, according to BLS data. The labor force participation rate moved higher as well, ticking up to 62.3% from 62.2%.

    While the majority of those labor force gains were from those classified as employed, the increase in those unemployed was largely attributed to those who re-entered the labor market and are searching for jobs.

    “In fact, the median time looking for work slipped to a three-month low, a bright spot in a generally weak jobs report,” Jennifer Timmerman, senior investment strategy analyst at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, wrote in a note to investors Friday.

    A low-churn labor market puts the US labor market — and the broader economy — at greater risk, economists warn.

    The limited job gains also are coming from practically a single source, exacerbating those concerns.

    The US job market is being propped up primarily by ongoing employment gains in the health care industry. That sector, which has attributed for the lion’s share of overall job growth this year, added 46,800 jobs in August.

    That sector, however, accounts for just 15% of total employment, meaning many people are left on the sidelines.

    “For 85% of workers, they’re not seeing a lot of the jobs added,” Kory Kantenga, LinkedIn’s head of economics Americas, told CNN this week.

    And wage gains are increasingly growing softer. The annual growth rate of average hourly earnings slowed to 3.7% in August, from 3.9% in July.

    Without broader-based employment growth, the labor market is more vulnerable to shocks, he said.

    “If anything happens to that industry, you could easily see job growth fall off a cliff.”

    Warning signs have been flashing for months that the job market has been losing steam. That became starkly clearer in July, when weak job growth and larger-than-typical downward revisions spurred the unprecedented firing of BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer by President Donald Trump who claimed, without evidence, that the disappointing data must have been “rigged.”

    Other labor market data released so far this week further confirmed that the labor market has cooled down considerably: Private-sector hiring slowed sharply; initial jobless claims hit a nearly three-month high; layoff announcements picked up; and, for the first time in four years, the number of available jobs was lower than the number of job seekers.

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    Alicia Wallace and CNN

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  • Va. among states most affected by job losses from Trump’s cuts, housing and spending slowdowns – WTOP News

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    Virginia and New Jersey may be among the states most affected by the hiring slowdown that enraged President Donald Trump when it appeared in an Aug. 1 jobs report.

    This article was reprinted with permission from Virginia Mercury. 

    Virginia and New Jersey may be among the states most affected by the hiring slowdown that enraged President Donald Trump when it appeared in an Aug. 1 jobs report showing the United States had 258,000 fewer jobs than initially reported in May and June.

    Such revisions to earlier reports are based on more up-to-date payroll data and are routine. But the scale in this case was shocking — showing the smallest monthly job gains since pandemic-era December 2020 and the largest jobs revision, outside recessions, since 1968.

    In response, Trump declared the numbers were wrong, fired the Bureau of Labor Statistics chief, and offered as a replacement E.J. Antoni, a loyalist who has proposed suspending the jobs report. Trump falsely said in a Truth Social post that the revised jobs numbers were “RIGGED in order to make the Republicans, and ME, look bad.”

    Beyond those attention-grabbing actions, though, the numbers demonstrate the real effects of Trump’s work slashing the federal government.

    A Stateline analysis of the data shows how several states, especially Virginia and New Jersey, shed jobs in the second quarter of this year, which includes May and June.

    In Virginia, there were job losses blamed on canceled federal contracts in Northern Virginia as part of cuts made by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency, known as DOGE. Meanwhile, a slow housing market shuttered a plywood factory in the southern part of the state, and DOGE efforts canceled flooding control contracts on the coast.

    Jay Ford, Virginia policy manager at the Chesapeake Bay Foundation, told a state legislative committee in June that $50 million in contracts were slashed in the Hampton Roads area near the coast, causing a spike in unemployment claims.

    That included $20 million to address flooding in Hampton, where almost a quarter of homes are in flood zones, and $24 million to repair a Portsmouth dam that could fail in a major storm, he said.

    “This is work that you desperately needed,” Ford said at the committee hearing. “There was a real focus on certain buzzwords like ‘climate’ or ‘resilience,’ and I think people conflated some of these projects as somehow unnecessary.”

    For instance, the American Institutes for Research announced 233 layoffs in Virginia in May and 50 in Maryland since the beginning of the year. The not-for-profit organization’s projects include working with school districts to solve achievement gaps and absenteeism, creating AI-driven workforce training, and addressing health care issues such as improving kidney disease care while reducing Medicare costs and strengthening access to health care by keeping rural hospitals open.

    “The changes occurring in the federal government have brought significant challenges for many federal contractors, including AIR,” said Dana Tofig, the company’s spokesperson.

    Other recent layoffs in Virginia: 442 workers at Northern Virginia’s Mitre, which manages federally funded defense research centers and faced $28 million in canceled federal contracts; and 554 workers at a shuttered plywood factory in Southern Virginia.

    “Housing affordability challenges and a 30-year low in existing home sales are impacting our plywood business, as many of our plywood products are used in repair and remodel projects, which often occur when homes change ownership,” Georgia-Pacific said in a May news release.

    Stateline looked at two state jobs surveys for the second quarter that sometimes have quite different results: the so-called payroll survey of businesses that the Bureau of Labor Statistics uses for its monthly report, which has yet to be revised at the state level, and the BLS Local Area Unemployment Statistics program, which estimates job changes based on monthly household surveys.

    The LAUS estimates are often called the “household” survey because they rely mostly on surveys of households, asking how many people are employed. They include jobs the payroll survey can’t get, such as contract and agricultural jobs, and capture jobs where people live rather than states where employers are located.

    In a state like Virginia with a high number of federal employees and contract workers, lost jobs may show up sooner in the household survey since many federal jobs are not reflected on state-level payrolls if they are done by subcontractors, if the agency or contractor is based in another state, or if DOGE cuts allowed people to stop work but stay on the payroll until September. Those people might report being unemployed in the household survey but wouldn’t show up in other surveys until October.

    The household survey shows about the same number of slowing job gains as the revised national payroll report, so it may be a window into the trends, many caused by Trump administration cuts in government, health care and foreign aid, and also by slowing sales in stores and housing markets.

    Both surveys rely on small samples and are often revised later, said Charles Gascon, an economist and research officer at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The more definitive Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, set for release Dec. 3 for the second quarter, will show state patterns more conclusively, he said.

    The household surveys show Virginia with the largest job losses in the country for the second quarter, down about 43,000, and job losses every month since February. Before that, the state gained jobs every month since the height of pandemic job losses in April 2020.

    New Jersey, which had the most job losses — 15,400 — in the separate second-quarter payroll survey, has suffered layoffs in retail stores hit by a slowdown in consumer spending, increased shoplifting and, among drugstores, lawsuits for their role in the opioid epidemic.

    Walmart announced 481 layoffs at its Hoboken, New Jersey, corporate office, and Rite Aid drugstores laid off 1,122 amid Chapter 11 bankruptcy affected by opioid crisis lawsuits that also hit Walmart and other pharmacy chains. Pharma firms Bristol Myers Squibb and Novartis also have announced hundreds of layoffs in New Jersey, citing patent expirations on popular drugs.

    Wobbly state finances

    Rising unemployment combined with weak revenue growth suggests “economic fragility” for state finances, said Lucy Dadayan, a principal research associate for the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center who tracks state tax revenue.

    Nationally, unemployment was at 4.2% in July, the same as July 2024 but up from recent lows of 3.4% in April 2023, with the largest increases in Mississippi, Virginia and Oregon.

    Unemployment has dropped the most compared with July 2024 in Indiana, Illinois, New York and West Virginia.

    The states with the highest unemployment rates in July were California (5.5%), Nevada (5.4%) and Michigan (5.3%), while the lowest were in South Dakota (1.9%), North Dakota (2.5%) and Vermont (2.6%).

    “I think the dramatic May and June jobs revision signals economic fragility. State-level warning signs suggest the impacts will show gradually,” Dadayan said. “And of course states are facing fiscal challenges caused by One Big Beautiful Bill Act tax and spending decisions.”

    State finances are a mixed picture, with income tax collections rising because of a strong stock market and sales tax growth weak as consumers retreat on spending, Dadayan said.

    In Virginia, the economically distressed area around Emporia will suffer aftershocks from the plywood plant closing, said Del. Otto Wachsmann, a Republican who represents the area in the state House of Delegates. The area is already reeling from the indefinite closure of a nearby Boar’s Head lunch meat plant that employed 600 people after a listeria outbreak there last year.

    The community, part of the southern “Wood Basket” region, has a large logging industry that will now struggle to find new markets farther away with higher costs for trucking, Wachsmann said. “We’re working hard to find new industries to come here.”

    Layoff rates in April, as calculated by the online human resources platform Techr, showed New Jersey, Vermont and Virginia with the highest rates.

    Amanda Goodall, a workforce analyst who calls herself “The Job Chick” on social media, said the layoffs reflect restructuring in major corporations as well as federal cutbacks. She wrote about the layoff rates in a recent post.

    “These are not statistical flukes. They reflect real corporate moves, in New Jersey and Virginia especially,” Goodall wrote in an emailed statement to Stateline. “The bigger issue is that nobody on the ground cares what the unemployment rate says if they can’t find an interview for a job they’re qualified for. State layoff figures are giving us an early read.”

    California and Texas

    California and Texas saw the biggest jobs gains in both surveys in the second quarter.

    Texas added 42,700 jobs in the payroll survey, with the largest increase coming in the category of private educational services, 14,400 jobs, as the state approved a plan for school vouchers to start next year, according to a statement to Stateline from the Texas Workforce Commission.

    California added 25,300 jobs. But the household survey showed an increase of almost 111,000 jobs, the highest in the country.

    A Public Policy Institute of California blog post in July called the state’s labor market “at best, in a hold-steady pattern this year,” citing the state’s stubbornly elevated unemployment rate of 5.4% but also its jobs improvement over last year.

    “A hold-steady pattern is a welcome change from a year ago,” said the post, written by Sarah Bohn, a senior fellow at the institute.

    Editor’s note: This story originally appeared in Stateline, which is, like the Virginia Mercury, part of States Newsroom.

    Virginia Mercury is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Virginia Mercury maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Samantha Willis for questions: info@virginiamercury.com.

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    Thomas Robertson

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  • Fox Anchor, Through Gritted Teeth, Admits Biden’s Economy “Is a Lot Stronger Than Anybody Understands”

    Fox Anchor, Through Gritted Teeth, Admits Biden’s Economy “Is a Lot Stronger Than Anybody Understands”

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    To hear Donald Trump tell it, the US economy is on life support thanks to Joe Biden, and the only one who can save it is Donald Trump. While this claim, like virtually everything Trump has ever said, has no basis in reality, the notion that Biden has been terrible for the country’s finances is a pervasive one, with a recent CNN poll showing 71% of Americans believe the nation’s economic conditions are poor and just 33% saying they approve of Biden’s handling of the matter.

    One reason we know the economy is faring far, far better than Trump would have people believe? The actual numbers—Friday’s jobs report revealed employers added 199,00 new jobs last month, unemployment fell to 3.7%, and wages were up 0.4%. Another? Even an anchor on the Rupert Murdoch–controlled Fox Business Network is admitting, on live TV, that the economy is doing well.

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    Responding to the jobs report Friday morning, Fox’s Maria Bartiromo told viewers, in moment that seemed to pain her: “Overall, you’ve got to look at this report as a big positive. We’ve got more jobs created than expected.” Turning to panelist Joseph Lavorgna, the former chief economist of the National Economic Council under Trump, she remarked, “Joe Lavorgna, you’ve been saying this for a long time, saying that the economy is a lot stronger than anybody understands.” He responded: “The numbers are good numbers, no question. The fact that the unemployment rate fell is good. It was because household employment was up over 700,000.”

    Republicans: The DOJ is protecting Hunter Biden by criminally charging him

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    Bess Levin

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  • Dow, jobs report, credit downgrade and more news from Wall Street

    Dow, jobs report, credit downgrade and more news from Wall Street

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    A ‘Now Hiring’ sign is seen posted in the window of a restaurant looking to hire workers on May 5 in Miami, Florida. Joe Raedle/Getty Images

    While federal employment data is sometimes considered a lagging indicator, some parts of the July jobs report hint at potential weakening ahead, economists cautioned Friday.

    The temporary help services industry shed jobs for the sixth consecutive month, dropping by nearly 22,000 positions in July, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Through July, the industry has lost 205,000 jobs, a 6.5% hit, since its recent employment peak in March 2022, BLS data shows.

    “This suggests that the overall labor market will continue to slow down in the coming months,” Selcuk Eren, senior economist at the Conference Board, said in commentary issued Friday.

    Temporary employment activity is often viewed as a bellwether for future hiring activity: When times are good, businesses bring on more temps to take on extra work and potentially convert them into new hires; when times get lean, those positions are usually among the first to go.

    Temporary employment declined in advance of the 2001 and 2008 recessions.

    Separately, average workweek hours ticked down to 34.3 in July from 34.4 in June. During the past three months, average hours per worker fell at a 1.2% annualized rate, noted Preston Caldwell, Morningstar’s chief economist.

    “That offset the bulk of the job gains, meaning that aggregate hours worked increased at a mere 0.5% annual rate in the past three months — which is indeed below normal,” he wrote. “Given that employers can only cut hours so much, this is a harbinger for increased layoffs and a slowed pace of total job gains.”

    Additionally, the teenage jobless rate rose for the third consecutive month, increasing to 11.3% from 11% the month before.

    That’s “another sign of the cooling employment picture,” said Sung Won Sohn, finance and economics professor at Loyola Marymount University and chief economist of SS Economics.

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  • Kroger workers who quit are getting texts and emails from the company asking them to come back

    Kroger workers who quit are getting texts and emails from the company asking them to come back

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    Former Kroger employees who left the company have been getting some surprising texts and emails. The supermarket operator—the nation’s largest by sales—wants them back, and it isn’t being shy about reaching out and letting them know.

    That is not generally the way things work, of course. Once you leave a company, chances are slim it will reach out later asking you to return. You might have left your boss in a lurch, for one thing. But the lowest unemployment rate in 53 years means companies are getting creative about filling open positions. 

    “Alumni are also a talent source,” Tim Massa, chief people officer at the grocer, told the Wall Street Journal. According to him, the Cincinnati-based company has tried hard since the pandemic ended to stay in touch with ex-employees and has seen a significant number of them return. 

    For instance, the company persuaded Tish Spurlock, a former recruiter at Kroger, to come back after reaching out to her, the Journal reported. Spurlock had left for a technology firm but returned to Kroger in a new role with a higher salary. 

    Associated Wholesale Grocers meanwhile has reached out to ex-employees through LinkedIn and Facebook, according to the Journal. The company got more aggressive with rehiring after seeing how well it worked—returning workers generally hit their targets months before new ones do. 

    Of course, fears of a looming recession remain, credit card debt in the U.S. is rising while savings dwindle amid high inflation, and headlines about mass layoffs at big-name companies have been inescapable in recent months. But those layoffs have often been concentrated in the tech industry, where many companies overhired to meet surging demand during the pandemic.

    Last month, Amazon began firing 18,000 people, Microsoft let go of 10,000, and Google parent Alphabet slashed 12,000 jobs. That followed Facebook owner Meta cutting 11,000 workers in November. Meta is widely expected to cut more jobs in the near future as part of its “year of efficiency.” Last year more than 150,000 tech workers were laid off, according to tracking website Layoffs.fyi. But many other tech companies are still hiring, and laid-off tech workers have generally not stayed unemployed for long. 

    Across the U.S. economy, many workers who left their jobs during the Great Resignation ended up with higher salaries at new jobs. Understaffed employers, meanwhile, have felt compelled to boost salaries or offer higher ones to lure in new talent.

    Or in the case of Kroger and others, reach out to workers who quit.

    Learn how to navigate and strengthen trust in your business with The Trust Factor, a weekly newsletter examining what leaders need to succeed. Sign up here.

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    Steve Mollman

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