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Tag: Jim Collins

  • Steal This Idea: How Amazon Uses a Flywheel to Build a Trillion-Dollar Business

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    In 2001, Jim Collins was invited to Amazon to talk about his just-released book, Good to Great. One of the things he shared was the concept of a flywheel.

    The premise is simple. A flywheel is an incredibly heavy wheel that takes huge effort to push. Keep pushing, though, and the flywheel slowly builds momentum; keep adding ways for other initiatives to help push, and in time the flywheel starts generating its own momentum and starts helping turn itself.

    Once the flywheel builds up sufficient momentum — especially self-reinforcing momentum — a company can go from good to great.

    Pretty cool premise, but admittedly not particularly helpful. Everyone knows success is based on focus and hard work. But dive a little deeper and the flywheel concept can provide clarity and help drive strategy for any business in any industry.

    Here’s why. A flywheel is a self-reinforcing loop made up of a few key initiatives. Those initiatives feed and are in turn driven by each other, and build a long-term business.

    Here’s how Brad Stone describes an early version of Amazon’s flywheel in his book, The Everything Store:

    … Bezos and his lieutenants sketched their own virtuous cycle, which they believed powered their business. It went something like this: lower prices led to more customer visits. More customers increased the volume of sales and attracted more commission-paying third-party sellers to the site. That allowed Amazon to get more out of fixed costs like the fulfillment centers and the servers needed to run the website.

    This greater efficiency then enabled it to lower prices further.

    Feed any part of this flywheel, they reasoned, and it should accelerate the loop.

    The key is the last sentence: Feed any part of the flywheel. Adding more third-party sellers meant greater selection, more customers, and more revenue. Greater revenue helped fuel investments in infrastructure which reduced costs, and helped lower prices. Lower prices meant more customers, which meant more revenue… you get the point.

    Granted, that’s Amazon. But what about your business? Imagine you sell home heating and air conditioning systems.

    New hardware sales and installations make up one part of your flywheel. Preventive maintenance makes up another: the more new systems you install, the more service contracts you can sell, and the more scheduled maintenance visits you make. Those visits create more opportunities for your techs to deliver great service and build long-term customer relationships, which feeds future hardware and installation sales.

    And don’t forget emergency service; every call is an opportunity for a tech to save the day, and for you to sell another maintenance contract, and to identify obsolete equipment that could be replaced by new hardware.

    Sounds obvious, right? But how you choose to feed your flywheel can be less obvious. One simple approach is to focus largely on sales of new systems. But a dealer near me works extremely hard to sell maintenance contracts, counter-intuitively (at least to me) putting more resources into selling maintenance than he does selling new hardware.

    Why? Maintenance contracts drive service calls, which drive customer relationships, which drive sales of new systems, since it’s a lot easier to sell a $250 maintenance contract than it is to sell a $12,000 system. But when that customer does need a new system, since he’s built a great relationship, he’s likely to be the first provider that customer calls.

    His flywheel has helped him build a business with locations in multiple cities across the state.

    Now for a humble example: me. I write for Inc. I ghostwrite books. I wrote my own book. I do keynotes. My Inc. articles help drive ghostwriting work and sales of my book. My book, and my Inc. articles, help drive speaking engagements. Speaking engagements drive book sales. My Inc. work gets me in front of potential ghostwriting clients. Past ghostwriting clients refer me to new ghostwriting clients, and occasionally for speaking gigs.

    Cumulatively, each component of my flywheel supports and pushes the other components.

    That’s the key to the flywheel. If you only have one primary initiative, what happens when the momentum from that initiative inevitably stalls? The key is to find initiatives you can add to your business that will help sustain and build momentum, and will be fed by that same momentum.

    The key is to build a flywheel that, when you feed any part of it, naturally accelerates the entire loop. (Just don’t think of marketing as a part of your flywheel. Marketing supports initiatives; it’s not an initiative in and of itself.)

    Don’t feel bad if your flywheel is currently missing a facet or two. (Mine could use at least one more.) Just make sure you start working to create your own self-reinforcing loop.

    Because when you do, that can make your business really roll.

    The opinions expressed here by Inc.com columnists are their own, not those of Inc.com.

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    Jeff Haden

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  • Black Friday Brings a Darker Outlook for Tesla

    Black Friday Brings a Darker Outlook for Tesla

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    When Black Friday comes…. Steely Dan is dominating my mental soundtrack this morning. But, as I mentioned in my column earlier this week, I like to stay away from the herd. So, instead of focusing on mall traffic or Amazon Prime (AMZN) activity, I will focus on a much larger consumer base than the one in the U.S.: China.

    The People’s Bank of China reportedly will cut the reserve requirement ratio for most banks by a quarter percentage point by Dec. 5, which would pour in about $70 billion of liquidity into the economy. 

    I spend so much time on the energy sector that I have adopted its lingo. We always talk about the marginal demand for a barrel of oil. So, if we look at the global economy, China is counted upon to be the marginal demand for … just about everything.

    Yes, that obviously impacts oil, and the recent zero-Covid lockdowns in Beijing and other cities have indeed pressured oil via its Brent crude pricing benchmark. Brent is flat now at $85.30/barrel.

    But energy is still the best of a bad bunch of U.S. stocks. I saw the stat the other day that energy is the only one of the 12 S&P 500 sectors that has posted a gain thus far in 2022. Rest assured that I am not selling any energy names now, nor do I plan to before Dec. 23.

    But when I look at the Chinese consumer, I am focused on purchases of goods, not commodities. The first name that jumps to mind as a China Play is Tesla (TSLA) .

    China’s auto safety regulators announced yet another recall action Friday on older Teslas (models that were actually made at Tesla’s California facility). A terrible record on initial quality combined with a softening macro environment in China does not bode well for Tesla’s global growth prospects. Elon Musk knew that he had to grow where the marginal growth was in the global economy, so he opened Tesla Shanghai. But macro rules the micro, just as much in China as it does in the U.S.

    Earlier this year, the Insane Clown Posse of sell-side analysts that pretends to follow Tesla were climbing all over each other to raise forecasts for Tesla’s unit deliveries for 2022. The highest forecast I saw was 1.7 million units, but now, with a slower China and an awful Europe (Tesla opened a factory in Germany this year) it looks as if consensus is sitting at 1.35 million units delivered for Tesla in 2022. I think they will struggle to get to 1.3 mm units.

    Those unit delivery forecast declines were largely a factor of analysts lowering forecasts for Tesla’s deliveries in China. As delivery wait times mysteriously disappear on Tesla’s Chinese website, we can see that demand has dissipated there. The Model 3 is 5.5 years old and is no longer selling well in China (or anywhere else,) and the Y, while still selling well, is expensive for the average Chinese consumer.

    Tesla was painted as a China Play, and with China slowing so much that its Central Bank is throwing open the monetary spigot, look for Elon to continue to focus his energies elsewhere. As TSLA shares have declined by around 50% this year, I don’t blame him for doing so.

    (For some bonus content, and if you were understandably more focused on family and football yesterday than Brazilian financial media, this is my interview with Brazil Journal regarding Elon Musk, Twitter (TWTR) and Tesla that posted yesterday on that excellent site.)_

    Black Friday comes for everyone. Just make sure your portfolio doesn’t have one today, or any other Friday in the foreseeable future.

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