Credit: Orange County Mayor Jerry L. Demings/Facebook
David Jolly leads Jerry Demings in one of the first major polls of the Democratic primary for governor of Florida in 2026, but the majority of 400 registered Democratic voters surveyed are undecided.
The Mason-Dixon poll shows Jolly, a former Republican member of Congress, leading Demings, mayor of Orange County, 23%-19%. But 58% are undecided in the August primary.
It’s a little clearer in the GOP primary in the Mason-Dixon survey, with Naples U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds with a huge lead over three other Republicans.
Donalds gets 37% of the vote, with Lt. Gov. Jay Collins (now officially in the race), a distant second with 7%. Former House Speaker Paul Renner is at 4% and investment firm CEO James Fishback is at 3%.
However, nearly half (49%) say they are undecided in the Republican race.
Other polls taken in recent months show Donalds leading in the GOP race, with his numbers rising exponentially when pollsters inform Republican voters that Donalds has been endorsed by President Donald Trump.
“It should be noted that Donalds is the only candidate in either race whose name is recognized by more than half of his party’s voters,” said Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker. ” That name recognition advantage is an important factor behind his frontrunner status.”
The poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy from Jan. 8 through Jan. 13, 2026. It was made up of two separate statewide samples – one of 400 registered Democratic voters and one of 400 registered Republican voters. It has a margin of error of +/- 5%.
Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings wrote a letter to the U.S. Marshals Service on Monday, asking the feds to fully reimburse the county for the cost of jailing people who have been detained on immigration charges on behalf of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), a federal agency.
According to Mayor Demings, compliance with federal immigration enforcement has already cost county taxpayers more than $333,000 and counting. The county, like other jail operators in Florida, has an agreement with ICE, known as an intergovernmental services agreement, that allows ICE officers to detain federal inmates in Orange County Jail temporarily who are allegedly in the country illegally.
The U.S. Marshals Service, however, is not fully reimbursing the cost for doing so. While the cost of detaining a person is roughly $180 per person, per day, county officials say the feds are only reimbursing the county $88 per person, leaving local taxpayers on the hook for the rest.
“Orange County has done our part to ensure our operations are compliant with both federal and state laws which have mandated our participation in supporting immigration enforcement activities,” Demings’ letter reads. “But I am deeply concerned that the fiscal impact of these legislative mandates is being unfairly shouldered by Orange County, to the tune of over $333,592.”
According to Demings, Orange County Jail has seen a “continually increasing” number of people booked by or on behalf of ICE, with over 5,000 ICE detainees booked into the jail over just the last eight months alone, including those detained in neighboring areas outside Orange County.
Although county officials formally requested a renegotiated reimbursement cost from the federal government for housing ICE detainees in the local jail in August, Demings says the county has not received an updated figure or full reimbursement as requested, to date.
“The burden of the expense related to immigration enforcement activities should be borne by the federal government, not local governments who’ve been forced to follow the law in support of your initiatives,” Demings wrote.
“The burden of the expense related to immigration enforcement activities should be borne by the federal government, not local governments who’ve been forced to follow the law in support of your initiatives.”
It’s the closest thing to a mic-drop that locals are bound to get from Demings, who has faced heat from local immigrant rights advocates this year over his professed sense of helplessness to address concerns about aggressive federal immigration enforcement in Orange County.
“We are seeing people aggressively being taken by masked agents in our communities. Unmarked uniforms, arrests without warrants,” Hope Community Center organizing director Ericka Gomez-Tejeda told Demings and county commissioners last week during a county commissioner board meeting.
Advocates noted that, under separate state agency agreements with ICE, local communities have “incredibly” seen officers not just from ICE, but from the Florida Fish and Wildlife Commission and state Department of Financial Services “in our streets, at our doors, working for ICE.”
“When an agency meant to protect the environment is instead stopping community members and becoming a pipeline to immigration detention, this kind of enforcement erodes [trust] and pushes the agency far outside their intended role,” said Farmworker Association of Florida organizer Aaron Quen-Perez, speaking at a press conference ahead of the board meeting last week.
Demings, however, dismissed the county’s responsibility for addressing such concerns. “The resolution to this issue is not in these chambers, it is somewhere else,” Demings stated bluntly. “If there’s a complaint about how these individuals are doing their business, if they’re violating rights, I believe that the appropriate venue for those types of complaints is either with the federal government, with the state, or the courts — not the Orange County Commission.”
The Immigrants Are Welcome Here coalition, made up of more than 60 local legal and advocacy groups, including Hope Community Center, has been advocating over the last year for stronger rights for individuals detained by ICE under the Trump administration at the local jail.
According to NPR, more than 1.6 million immigrants in the U.S. lost their legal status in the first 11 months of President Donald Trump’s second term that began in January, including individuals previously accepted to enter the country through temporary protected status or asylum programs.
Calls to oppose or publicly challenge Trump’s mass detention and deportation plans, however, have put Demings in a tough spot. Demings, a former sheriff and police chief, recently launched a bid for Florida governor and is running as a Democrat in a solidly red state that overwhelmingly supported Trump in the 2024 presidential election.
Still, Demings has made it clear he wants the county to, at the very least, be reimbursed for detaining federal inmates on behalf of ICE — even if he’s less interested in investigating the circumstances under which those individuals were brought to the jail in the first place.
“I request the USMS expedite the renegotiation of our IGSA and provide us with a complete reimbursement of Orange County’s expenses related to your immigration enforcement initiatives, such that our local taxpayers no longer bear the costs of your initiative,” Demings’ letter to the USMS reads.
The financial burden, as Demings wrote, amounts to hundreds of thousands of dollars so far, in addition to a greater burden on the county’s already understaffed and overburdened corrections system. Trump’s Department of Homeland Security, for its part, is now offering unauthorized immigrants an “exit bonus” of $3,000 to “self-deport” and avoid the detention process altogether, the Wall Street Journal reports.
The DHS, a federal agency that includes ICE, has billed the “exit bonus” as a “limited time offer” for the holiday season, according to WSJ. The Trump administration previously offered a $1,000 bonus to migrants to “self-deport,” although the Guardian reports that some have taken up the offer, but never actually received any money.
Beyond the financial burden, of course, local advocates for immigrants in Orange County have also highlighted the emotional and physical toll of the Trump administration’s heightened immigration enforcement efforts. “Our communities are living the nightmares that we and every U.S. American citizen dreads,” Gomez-Tejeda said during a press conference on aggressive ICE enforcement tactics last week.
“I believe that the appropriate venue for those types of complaints is either with the federal government, with the state or the courts,” Mayor Demings said when pressed
The money was requested for AI language translators, pepper spray, GPS trackers, handcuffs, bonuses, and more
Two migrant detention centers may have violated international standards by imposing conditions that could amount to torture, the group claims
Orange County leaders are poised to approve an extra $1 million for the region’s largest hunger relief organization this week, in light of the recent uncertainty surrounding federal food assistance and the impact of the 43-day government shutdown that ended last week.
Most federal government employees, including tens of thousands in Central Florida alone, were furloughed for the duration of the shutdown or forced to continue working without pay for the duration of the shutdown. (The status of back pay for those workers is yet to be determined, although a document reviewed by Semafor shows the administration is working on getting payments out by Nov. 19.)
On Tuesday, Orange County’s board of county commissioners and Mayor Jerry Demings will vote on whether to approve the extra funding for Second Harvest Food Bank, which serves seven counties (including Orange) across Central Florida.
Based in Orlando, Second Harvest already has a three-year $7.75 million contract with the county, approved by county commissioners in August. But after the Trump administration pretended they didn’t have the money to fund Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits for millions of low-income families during the government shutdown, Mayor Demings proposed an additional $1 million investment from the county to support food assistance efforts.
Especially since Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, unlike governors in other states, refused to step up and commit state resources for food aid.
“One thing I like about living in Orange County is that we are a compassionate community,” Demings said at a press conference in late October, organized just days before funding for SNAP was expected to run out. “We come together when we need to during a crisis, and that’s what we’re asking us to do today, is as a community, let us come together.”
Demings can’t approve extra funding for Second Harvest unilaterally. That’s why he’s set it up for a vote this Tuesday, in front of the full board of county commissioners.
Although the federal government officially reopened this past Wednesday, ending the longest shutdown in U.S. history, Demings defended his proposal to provide additional support Friday when questioned by hosts of WMNF Radio’s Tampa-based news program, “The Skinny.”
“At the end of the day, my central job is to look out for the people in my community, and we have countless federal employees who now went well over 30 days without any pay,” Demings said, when pressed on the issue. “Then we have the temporary suspension, if you will, of SNAP benefits that has impacted residents in my community.”
“What we’re simply saying here in Orange County [is] if we have the ability to assist those who may need food, we’re going to do that.”
Demings, a former county sheriff first elected mayor in 2018, recently launched a campaign for Florida governor. With DeSantis term-limited from seeking re-election next year, Demings will face a tough campaign ahead against Republican opponents, including the Trump-endorsed Republican Congressman Byron Donalds.
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Demings formally announced his bid for governor, setting up a Democratic primary fight next year against former Congressman David Jolly
The federal SNAP program, formerly known as food stamps, serves nearly 42 million Americans, including 175,000 households in Orange County earning up to 200 percent of the federal poverty level. That’s equal to just over $31,000 for a single childless adult, or $64,300 for a family of four.
Stephanie Palacios, director of advocacy and government relations for Second Harvest, told Orlando Weekly last month that most of the people they serve are working families. Florida has work requirements in place for most adults who receive SNAP benefits.
“These are people who are working one and two jobs, and they’re struggling with high rent and challenges at the grocery store, so they are turning to our pantry network to help fill in those gaps,” Palacios said in an interview.
Her organization works with a network of 870 community partners across Orange, Osceola, Brevard, Lake, Volusia, Brevard and Marion counties to distribute food to those in need. Although the government has reopened, it’s still unclear when SNAP benefits will be distributed by the Florida Department of Children and Families, the state administrator of the program. U.S. Department of Agriculture Secretary Brooke L. Rollins said Thursday that most should receive their payments by Monday, Nov. 17, at the latest.
According to Axios, Florida hasn’t publicly released a timeline for this, unlike more than a dozen states — red and blue — that have already confirmed their release of November SNAP benefits. The Tallahassee Democrat reports that some Florida residents have started to receive their benefits or have received partial benefits for the month. Others are still waiting.
On average, Florida SNAP recipients receive about $186 per month for food, or $6.12 per person, per day. With about 2.9 million Floridians receiving federal food assistance each month, Florida has the fourth-largest enrollment of SNAP recipients in the country.
If you need help finding food for yourself or your family, search for your nearest food pantry through Second Harvest’s Food Finder Tool.
Credit: Orange County Mayor Jerry L. Demings/Facebook
Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings on Thursday formally announced his bid for governor, setting up a Democratic primary fight next year against former Congressman David Jolly.
Demings, a former Orlando police chief and former Orange County sheriff who opened a campaign account for the gubernatorial race last week, issued a statement early Thursday that focused on a need to make Florida more affordable.
“Our state has become more expensive and less fair for everyone, all while power is being stripped away from local communities that know their residents best,” Demings said. “Florida needs a change. We need a different type of governor who puts delivering results before grabbing headlines and petty political fights.”
Demings, who has been Orange County mayor since 2018, was expected to hold an event later Thursday in Orlando to further launch the campaign.
With Gov. Ron DeSantis unable to run in 2026 because of term limits, U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds and former state House Speaker Paul Renner are seeking the Republican nomination for governor.
Jolly, a former Republican who kicked off his campaign in June, welcomed Demings to the race Thursday.
“All of Florida — Democrats, Republicans, and independents alike — deserves a spirited Democratic Party primary that puts voters first, one rooted in real solutions for the affordability of housing and health care, the future of public education, protecting personal freedoms, and restoring trust and competence in government,” Jolly said in a prepared statement.
The tone Thursday was different from a memo that Jolly’s campaign sent earlier in the week outlining “the choice before Democrats.”
Touting Jolly, the memo asked who can unite the party, break nearly three decades of Republican control of the state and “has the credibility and message to defeat Republican extremism — not with partisan rhetoric, but with practical ideas that connect across political lines?”
The memo said that “for 30 years, Florida Democrats have repeated the same losing formula: Campaigns built around consultants instead of communities, focused on fundraisers and corporate boardrooms instead of front porches and town halls. We’ve ignored voters, chased special-interest money, and prioritized the political class over everyday Floridians.”
It also included former U.S. Rep. Val Demings, who is married to Jerry Demings, among “well intended, dedicated nominees” who “still came up short” in statewide contests. Val Demings, who served in Congress from 2017 to 2023, lost a bid for the U.S. Senate in 2022 to then-Sen. Marco Rubio, who is now U.S. Secretary of State.
Asked about the contest Wednesday, Florida Democratic Party Chairwoman Nikki Fried said having two prominent candidates will provide an “opportunity for the people of our state to hear from our statewide candidates, to share their vision, ask the tough questions.”
Fried said the party’s job is to build “the infrastructure that no matter who the Democrats in our primary decide to choose, we are going to be ready to build a coalition to again share the vision of what the next chapter of Florida looks like.”
Whoever emerges from the Democratic primary is expected to be the underdog in the general election, as Republicans have huge edges in fundraising and voter registration. The last Democrat to win a gubernatorial race was Lawton Chiles, who was re-elected in 1994.
The Republican Party of Florida greeted Demings’ entry into the contest with a news release saying his campaign is “destined to flop.”
“Under Republican leadership, Florida is booming, freedom is prevailing, and Republicans hold a record voter advantage,” GOP Chairman Evan Power said in the release.
As of Sept. 30, Florida had about 5.5 million “active” Republican registered voters and nearly 4.12 million Democrats. Another 3.38 million voters had no party affiliation.
The Republican Governors Association took a shot at Democrats, saying Demings opening a campaign account was a sign “Florida Democrats are clearly unimpressed with David Jolly’s Charlie Crist impersonation.”
Crist, a former congressman who won statewide races including the 2006 gubernatorial contest as a Republican, was the unsuccessful Democratic gubernatorial nominee in 2014 and 2022.
Equal Ground, a Black-led, nonprofit organization, noted that with Demings entering the campaign, Florida could have Black candidates topping the ticket for both major parties in 2026. Donalds, who has the backing of President Donald Trump, is Black.
“This moment represents a defining chapter for Florida … It stands as a powerful milestone in a state where Black voices, leadership, and civic power have for far too long faced systemic barriers towards progress,” Equal Ground said in an email.
Confirming rumors of a potential run, Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings officially filed paperwork to enter Florida’s highly anticipated gubernatorial race next year, with current Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis term-limited from running for reelection.
Demings, a former Orlando Police Chief and Orange County Sheriff, is running for governor as a Democrat in a state that’s trended increasingly red in recent years. He’s the second high-profile Democrat to launch a bid for the seat, challenging former Rep. David Jolly (a former Republican turned Democrat) for the Democratic nomination.
Demings, the husband of former U.S. Rep. Val Demings, is reportedly expecting to share a formal announcement of his campaign for governor at the Rosen Centre later this week. Records publicly available through the state Division of Elections website show Demings officially filed his candidate paperwork on Friday, allowing him to begin raising money for his campaign.
A couple of high-profile Republican candidates have already filed to run for governor as well, setting up what is likely to be a competitive election to succeed the right wing’s anti-woke champion DeSantis.
First Lady Casey DeSantis, Ron’s Republican wife caught up in a scandal involving alleged theft of government funds earlier this year, is also reportedly mulling over a run for governor, while Lt. Gov. Jay Collins — a former state senator — has also teased a run but hasn’t yet filed paperwork.
Demings is the mayor of one of the last Democratic-leaning counties in Florida, and one of the largest. Orange County, located in Central Florida, is also one of the Sunshine State’s tourism capitals, home to Disney World, Universal Orlando Studios, SeaWorld and other major tourist attractions that collectively draw in more than 75 million visitors annually.
Recent polling published last week found that Republican Byron Donalds and Casey DeSantis currently share nearly identical leads in voter sentiment on the candidates running for governor. A survey from the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Lab found Democrat Jolly trailing Donalds by 11 percentage points, 45 percent to 34 percent, while Jolly trails DeSantis by 13 points. Survey respondents were also asked about Demings, then just a rumored candidate. Results show he also trailed Donalds and DeSantis by similar margins.
“We’re still a year away from the midterm election, and there are quite a few undecided voters,” said Dr. Michael Binder, a political science professor and faculty director for the Public Opinion Lab. “At this point, it looks like both Republicans are more than 10 points ahead of whoever emerges on the Democratic side.”
Demings hasn’t been afraid to challenge Florida’s current governor, and his allies, as it is. After facing scrutiny from Florida’s Department of Government Efficiency (“DOGE”) task force, Demings defended the county’s spending habits, arguing that while the county’s budget has increased in recent years, so has the county’s population and “the myriad challenges that we face” — with rising homelessness being one of them.
Demings also called on DeSantis last week to dip into the state’s emergency funding to fund federal food assistance, known as SNAP, for Florida’s nearly 3 million recipients. As a result of the federal government shutdown that began Oct. 1, the Trump administration has declined to utilize its contingency funding to fund SNAP, a program that serves more than 41 million low-income Americans, including many seniors, children and people with disabilities.
“In Orange County, more than 175,000 residents depend on SNAP benefits and will lose access to funds needed to purchase groceries for their families starting November 1st if immediate action is not taken,” Demings wrote in an Oct. 29 letter addressed to Gov. DeSantis. The federal and state governments, he added, “have a responsibility to ensure residents have access to nutritious food,” noting that the Orange County government alone has dedicated $5.3 million in funding to the region’s largest hunger relief organization this year, Second Harvest Food Bank.
“This is a fundamental right, and we must not allow our most vulnerable populations to be deprived,” Demings wrote.
DeSantis has rejected Democrats’ pleas for him to declare a state of emergency over the SNAP freeze (despite several other governors deciding to do so). Facing growing pressure, DeSantis finally conceded Monday that the state’s agriculture department would “be doing more” to help SNAP recipients, the Tampa Bay Times reported, without offering any specifics on how they will do so or what that will look like.
Although a federal judge last week ordered the Trump administration to use contingency funds to cover SNAP benefits for November — even with the ongoing government shutdown — it’s unclear when that will trickle down to Floridians through the state’s administrator. Plus, as NBC News reports, the contingency funds agreed to by the administration on Monday are only likely to cover “50% of eligible households’ current allotments.”
Demings was elected as Orange County’s first Black mayor in 2018, and won reelection in 2022 with about 60 percent of the vote in a four-way race. Florida’s gubernatorial race (still likely to see the entrance of additional candidates) is set for November 2026. The Democratic primary will take place next August.
Mable Butler was the first African American woman to serve on Orlando’s city council and the first African American member of the Orange County Commission.Butler died at the age of 98, according to her family.She served the city of Orlando from 1984 to 1990 before representing Orange County District 6 from 1990 to 1998.In a statement on her passing, Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings said, “It is with great sadness that I acknowledge the passing of Commissioner Mable Butler who I’ve known since childhood. She was my neighbor, political mentor and supporter. I owe her a debt of gratitude for helping pave the way for me to break barriers as a politician. She leaves a living legacy of commitment to service for many.”On Instagram, Rep. Maxwell Frost said, “I am deeply saddened by the news of the Honorable Mable Butler’s passing. This is a profound loss for our Central Florida community.”May she rest in power. Her love for Central Florida and her fearless advocacy will live on in all of us.”
ORANGE COUNTY, Fla. —
Mable Butler was the first African American woman to serve on Orlando’s city council and the first African American member of the Orange County Commission.
Butler died at the age of 98, according to her family.
She served the city of Orlando from 1984 to 1990 before representing Orange County District 6 from 1990 to 1998.
In a statement on her passing, Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings said, “It is with great sadness that I acknowledge the passing of Commissioner Mable Butler who I’ve known since childhood. She was my neighbor, political mentor and supporter. I owe her a debt of gratitude for helping pave the way for me to break barriers as a politician. She leaves a living legacy of commitment to service for many.”
On Instagram, Rep. Maxwell Frost said, “I am deeply saddened by the news of the Honorable Mable Butler’s passing. This is a profound loss for our Central Florida community.
“May she rest in power. Her love for Central Florida and her fearless advocacy will live on in all of us.”
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