RAF pilots are reportedly carrying out secret spy missions to track down Iran-backed terror groups smuggling weapons to Hamas and Hezbollah.
Brit fighter jets are said to be now focused on the movements of suspected rockets and missiles from Iraq and Syria into the hands of Iran’s proxy forces to be used against Israel.
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RAF Typhoons have a new mission – spying on the movements of weapons by Iran-backed terror groupsCredit: PA
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Hamas has fired thousands of rockets into Israel, raising questions on where there supply comes fromCredit: AFP
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Experts have long said Iran was supplying rockets and missiles to Hamas via tunnels and the seaCredit: Israel Defense Forces
After years of trying to track down remnants of the Islamic State, The Times claims that the Typhoons have a new mission – surveilling Iran’s nefarious activities across the Middle East.
A military source revealed: “We suspect these could be some Iranian-backed militia groups manoeuvring weapons through Iraq and Syria to bolster up Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank.”
Since Israel declared war on Hamas following their bloody October 7 massacres, Iran-backed terror groups in Lebanon and Yemen have repeatedly threatened to open up new fronts in the conflict.
Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Yemen’s Houthi rebels are part of Iran’s self-styled “Axis of Resistance” against Israel and have been striking both Israeli and US targets in “solidarity” with Hamas.
Meanwhile, Hamas has been able to unleash thousands of rockets from the Gaza Strip into Israel, which has raised questions over where their supply has come from.
Experts have long believed Hamas’s weapons arsenal has been smuggled from Iran into Gaza through their maze of terror tunnels and the sea.
Meanwhile, a military source also told The Times that the RAF pilots are now also responsible for helping to find the Iran-backed terror groups responsible for firing at US bases.
Washington has complained that Tehran is stepping up its attacks on American targets using its regional proxies in revenge for Israel’s relentless bombardment and offensive inside Gaza.
White House spokesman John Kirby has accused Iran of “actively facilitating” the assaults and “spurring on others who may want to exploit the conflict”.
In recent weeks, the US revealed 78 drone and rocket attacks have been carried out against US facilities, of which 37 were in Iraq and 41 in Syria.
On Friday morning, a multi-rocket attack targeted the US Embassy in Baghdad causing minor damage and no casualties.
It was the first confirmed attack on the embassy in Iraq’s capital since the beginning of the Israel-Hamas war.
It comes as official sources revealed that US President Joe Biden will allow Israel until the end of the year to wrap up its war on Hamas.
Israel is currently ramping up its air and ground offensive in Gaza – which has so far wiped out about half of the terror group’s mid-level commanders.
Lt Col Lerner said: “He is the person that financed it [the October 7 attack], organised it, planned it, and gave the green light to go and kill and butcher, massacre, abduct, rape and behead Israelis.
“He’s at the top of our list. We intend on catching up with him and killing him in action.”
The UN estimates 1.9 million people have been displaced by the fighting so far and Israel’s new military evacuation orders are squeezing people into ever-smaller areas.
Most are lacking access to food, water and medicine after months of Israel’s bombardment and siege, which has made much-needed aid deliveries inside the Strip almost impossible.
The Hamas-run Health Ministry in Gaza said the death toll in the territory has surpassed 17,100 – 70 per cent of which are women and children, with another 46,000 wounded.
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Biden told Israel they have until the end of the year to finish its offensive in GazaCredit: AFP
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70 per cent of those killed in Gaza are said to be women and childrenCredit: Rex
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The IDF is advancing deep into Khan Younis in southern Gaza
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Hamas has taunted Israel with a picture of Hamas chief Yahya Sinwar
March 7, 2019 – Ayatollah Khamenei appoints Raisi as chief justice.
March 12, 2019 – Elected deputy chief of the Assembly of Experts.
November 4, 2019 – The US Department of the Treasury sanctions Raisi, citing his participation in the 1988 “death commission” and also a United Nations report indicating that Iran’s judiciary approved the execution of at least nine children between 2018 and 2019.
June 19, 2021 – Is declared the winner of a historically uncompetitive presidential election in Iran. Raisi wins almost 18 million of the nearly 29 million ballots cast, according to Interior Minister Rahmani Fazli. Many reform-minded Iranians had refused to take part in an election widely seen as a foregone conclusion. Overall voter turnout was only 48.8% – the lowest since the establishment of the Islamic Republic of Iran in 1979.
June 21, 2021 –In his first international news conference since being elected president, Raisi says he would not meet with US President Joe Biden, even if both sides agreed on terms to revive the 2015 nuclear deal, under which Iran had pledged to stop uranium enrichment in return for the lifting of crippling US sanctions. Responding to a question from CNN, the president-elect accuses the United States and the European Union of violating the deal and calls on Biden to lift all sanctions, before adding that Iran’s ballistic missile program is “not up for negotiation.”
RIYADH/DUBAI (Reuters) – Saudi Arabia has asked the United States to show restraint in responding to attacks by Yemen’s Houthis against ships in the Red Sea, two sources familiar with Saudi thinking said, as Riyadh seeks to contain spillover from the Hamas-Israel war.
The Iran-aligned Houthis have waded into the conflict that has spread around the Middle East since war erupted on Oct. 7, attacking vessels in vital shipping lanes and firing drones and missiles at Israel itself.
The group which rules much of Yemen says its attacks are a show of support for the Palestinians and has vowed they will continue until Israel stops its offensive on the Gaza Strip – more than 1,000 miles from their seat of power in Sanaa.
The Houthis are one of several groups in the Iran-aligned “Axis of Resistance” which have been attacking Israeli and U.S. targets since the start of the conflict on Oct. 7, when their Palestinian ally Hamas sparked the war by attacking Israel.
Their role has added to the conflict’s regional risks, threatening sea lanes through which much of the world’s oil shipped, and worrying states on the Red Sea as Houthi rockets and drones fly towards Israel.
Riyadh, the world’s top oil exporter, has watched with alarm as Houthi missiles have been fired over its territory.
With the Houthis stepping up attacks on shipping over the past weeks, two sources familiar with Saudi thinking said Riyadh’s message of restraint to Washington aimed to avoid further escalation. Riyadh was so far pleased with the way the United States was handling the situation, the sources added.
“They pressed the Americans about this and why the Gaza conflict should stop,” one of the sources said.
The White House declined to comment.
The Saudi government did not respond to an emailed request for a comment on the discussions.
As Saudi Arabia presses for a ceasefire to halt what it has called a “barbaric war” in Gaza, its diplomacy reflects a wider policy aimed at promoting regional stability after years of confrontation with Iran and its allies.
Focused on expanding and diversifying the Saudi economy, Riyadh this year normalised ties with Tehran and is seeking to exit the war it has been waging with the Houthis in Yemen for nearly nine years.
The sources said Saudi Arabia was seeking to advance the Yemen peace process even as war rages in Gaza, worrying it could be derailed. Yemen has enjoyed more than a year of relative calm amid direct peace talks between Saudi and Houthi officials.
The Houthi attacks during the Hamas-Israel war have elevated their profile in the Iran-aligned camp which also includes Hamas, Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Iran-backed militias in Iraq.
The Houthis have emerged as a major military force in the Arabian Peninsula, with tens of thousands of fighters and a huge arsenal of ballistic missiles and armed drones.
Senior sources in the Iran-aligned camp told Reuters the Houthi attacks were part of an effort to put pressure on Washington to get Israel to halt the Gaza offensive, a goal that Iran shares with Saudi Arabia and other countries in the region.
One of the sources, who is based in Tehran, said Houthi representatives had discussed their attacks with Iranian officials during a meeting in Tehran in November, agreeing to carry out actions in a “controlled” way that would help force an end to the Gaza war. The source was briefed on the matter.
Another of the sources said Tehran did not seek “all-out war in the region” that would risk drawing it in directly.
A Houthi spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment. Iran has denied being involved in the attacks. Iranian officials did not respond to a request for comment on the Houthi attacks.
DESTROYER DOWNS DRONES
The United States and Britain have condemned the attacks on shipping, blaming Iran for its role in supporting the Houthis. Tehran says its allies make their decisions independently.
In one of the latest incidents, three commercial vessels came under attack in international waters on Sunday. The Houthis said they had fired at what they said were two Israeli vessels. Israel denied any link to the ships.
A U.S. Navy destroyer, the Carney, shot down three drones as it answered distress calls from the vessels, which the U.S. military said were connected to 14 separate nations.
The Pentagon said on Monday the Carney had taken action as a drone was headed in its direction, but that it could not assess if the warship was the intended target.
Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singh stopped short of using language that could suggest any imminent U.S. retaliation against the Houthis. Asked if the United States might retaliate, Singh said: “If we decide to take action against the Houthis, it will of course be at a time and place of our choosing.”
An Iranian diplomat said Tehran and Washington had exchanged messages through intermediaries about Houthi attacks since the start of the Hamas-Israel war. The diplomat, who was involved in exchanging the messages, said both called for restraint.
Iran on Tuesday denied any role in attacks or actions against U.S. forces.
(Additional reporting by Steve Holland in Washington; Writing by Tom Perry; Editing by Alison Williams)
TEHRAN — Iran said Wednesday it sent a capsule into orbit carrying animals as it prepares for human missions in coming years.
A report by the official IRNA news agency quoted Telecommunications Minister Isa Zarepour as saying the capsule was launched 130 kilometers (80 miles) into orbit.
Zarepour said the launch of the 500-kilogram (1,000-pound) capsule is aimed at sending Iranian astronauts to space in coming years. He did not say what kind of animals were in the capsule.
State TV showed footage of a rocket named Salman carrying the capsule into space.
Iran occasionally announces successful launches of satellites and other space crafts. In September, Iran said it sent a data-collecting satellite into space. In 2013, Iran said it sent a monkey into space and returned it successfully.
It says its satellite program is for scientific research and other civilian applications. The U.S. and other Western countries have long been suspicious of the program because the same technology can be used to develop long-range missiles.
A U.S. Navy warship shot down several drones launched toward commercial ships in the Red Sea. Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen have claimed responsibility for the attacks. David Martin reports.
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DUBAI — The war in Gaza crashed into the United Nations climate summit on Friday, as furious sideline diplomacy, blunt censures of violence and an Iranian boycott shoved global warming to the side.
It was a sharp change in tone from the COP28 opening on Thursday, which ended on an upbeat note as countries promised to support climate-stricken communities. The mood darkened the following day as news broke that the week-old truce between Israel and Hamas was collapsing.
Israeli President Isaac Herzog spent much of the morning in meetings telling fellow leaders about “how Hamas blatantly violates the ceasefire agreements,” according to a post on his X account. He ended up skipping a speech he was meant to give during Friday’s parade of world leaders.
There were other conspicuous no-shows. Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was absent, despite being listed as an early speaker. And Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian Authority leader, also disappeared from the final speakers’ list after initially being scheduled to talk just a few slots after Herzog.
Then, shortly after leaders posed for a group photo in the Dubai venue on Friday, the Iranian delegation announced it was walking out. The reason, Iran’s energy minister told his country’s official news agency: The “political, biased and irrelevant presence of the fake Zionist regime” — referring to Israel.
By Friday afternoon, the Iranian pavilion had emptied out.
The backroom drama played out even as leader after leader took the stage in the vast Expo City campus to make allotted three-minute statements on their efforts to stop the planet from boiling. The World Meteorological Organization said Thursday that 2023 was almost certain to be the hottest year ever recorded.
U.N. climate talks are often buffeted by outside events. This is the second such meetingheld after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. That war provoked some public barbs and backroom discussions at last year’s summit in Egypt, but leaders still maintained their scheduled speaking slots and a veneer of focus on the matter they were supposedly there to discuss.
This year, that veneer cracked.
“There are currently a number of very, very serious crises that are causing great suffering for many people. It was clear that these would also affect the mood at the COP,” a German diplomat, granted anonymity to discuss the issue candidly, told POLITICO.
But that can’t distract officials working on climate change, the diplomat added: “It is also clear that no one on our planet, no country on Earth, can escape the destructive effects of the climate crisis.”
Tell-tale signals
There had been early signs that the conflict would spill over into discussions at the climate summit.
Sameh Shoukry, president of the COP27 climate conference and Egyptian minister of foreign affairs, Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber, president of COP28 | Sean Gallup/Getty Images
At Thursday’s opening ceremony, Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry — president of last year’s COP27 summit — asked all delegates to stand for a moment of silence in memory of two climate negotiators who had recently died, “as well as all civilians who have perished during the current conflict in Gaza.”
On Friday, Jordanian King Abdullah II, Iraqi President Abdul Latif Rashid, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan were among the leaders who used their COP28 speeches to draw attention to the war.
“This year’s COP must recognize even more than ever that we cannot talk about climate change in isolation from the humanitarian tragedies unfolding around us,” Abdullah said. “As we speak, the Palestinian people are facing an immediate threat to their lives and wellbeing.”
Ramaphosa went further: “South Africa is appalled at the cruel tragedy that is underway in Gaza. The war against the innocent people of Palestine is a war crime that must be ended now.
But, he added, “we cannot lose momentum in the fight against climate change.”
Asked for comment, an official from the United Arab Emirates, which is overseeing COP28, said the country had invited all parties to the conference and “are pleased with the exceptionally high level of attendance this year.”
The official added: “Climate change is a global issue and as the host for this significant, momentous conference, the UAE welcomes constructive dialogue and continues to work with all international partners and stakeholders across the board to deliver impactful results for COP28.”
The other summit in Dubai
In the back rooms of the conference venue, leaders were holding urgent talks on the war. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken huddled with Herzog on Thursday, according to a post on Herzog’s X account.
“In addition to participating in the COP, I’ll have an opportunity to meet with Arab partners to discuss the conflict in Gaza,” Blinken told reporters Wednesday while in Brussels for a NATO gathering. He didn’t offer further details.
A senior Biden administration official told reporters Vice President Kamala Harris would also be “having discussions on the conflict between Israel and Hamas” during her trip to Dubai.
On his X account, Herzog said he had met with “dozens” of leaders at the summit. His post featured photographs of Britain’s King Charles III, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, India’s Narendra Modi and Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. He also posted about meetings with Blinken and UAE leader Mohamed bin Zayed.
Erdoğan met with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni at COP28 to discuss the war in Gaza, according to a statement by the Turkish communications directorate that made no mention of climate action.
U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak made no secret of the fact that he intended to use some of his brief visit to Dubai to talk about regional security.
U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak made no secret of the fact that he intended to use some of his brief visit to Dubai to talk about regional security | Sean Gallup/Getty Images
“I’ll be speaking to lots of leaders … not just [about] climate change, but also the situation in the Middle East,” he told reporters on his flight outof the U.K. Thursday night.
The reignited Israel-Hamas conflict came to dominate his time at the summit. Meetings with other leaders were arranged with regional tensions in mind — not climate. Sunak met Israel’s Herzog and Jordan’s Abdullah, as well as Egyptian President Abdel Fatah al Sisi and the emir of Qatar.
“Given the events of this morning in Israel and Gaza, the prime minister has spent most of his bilateral meetings discussing that situation,” Sunak’s spokesperson told reporters in Dubai.
The meetings focused on “what more we can do both to support the innocent civilians in Gaza, to de-escalate tensions, to get more hostages out and more aid in,” the spokesperson said.
Even the U.K.’s ostensibly nonpolitical head of state, King Charles III — in Dubai to give an opening address to world leaders — was deployed to aid the diplomatic effort. Buckingham Palace said the king would “have the opportunity to meet regional leaders to support the U.K.’s efforts to promote peace in the region.”
Separately, French President Emmanuel Macron was planning to meet various leaders on the security situation and then fly on for talks in Qatar, according to an Elysée Palace official.
Meanwhile, three of Europe’s leaders who have been the strongest backers of the Palestinians — Irish leader Leo Varadkar, Belgian Prime Minister Alexander de Croo and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez — held talks on the fringes of COP on Friday morning.
Earlier on Friday, Israel withdrew its ambassador to Spain, blasting what it called Sánchez’s “shameful remarks” on the situation.
Brazil’s Lula, whose country will host a major COP conference in 2025, lamented that just as more joint action is needed to prevent climate catastrophe, war and violence were cleaving the world apart.
“We are facing what may be the greatest challenge that humanity has faced till now,” he said. “Instead of uniting forces, the world is going to wars. It feeds divisions and deepens poverty and inequalities.”
Zia Weise, Suzanne Lynch and Charlie Cooper reported from Dubai. Karl Mathiesen reported from London.
Clea Calcutt contributed reporting from Paris. Nahal Toosi contributed reporting from Washington, D.C.
DUBAI — The vast, global efforts to arrest rising temperatures are imperiled and must accelerate, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris told the world climate summit on Saturday.
“We must do more,” she implored an audience of world leaders at the COP28 climate talks in Dubai. And the headwinds are only growing, she warned.
“Continued progress will not be possible without a fight,” she told the gathering, which has drawn more than 100,000 people to this Gulf oil metropolis. “Around the world, there are those who seek to slow or stop our progress. Leaders who deny climate science, delay climate action and spread misinformation. Corporations that greenwash their climate inaction and lobby for billions of dollars in fossil fuel subsidies.”
Her remarks — less than a year before an election that could return Donald Trump to the White House — challenged leaders to cooperate and spend more to keep the goal of containing global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius within reach. So far, the planet has warmed about 1.3 degrees since preindustrial times.
“Our action collectively, or worse, our inaction will impact billions of people for decades to come,” Harris said.
The vice president, who frequently warns about climate change threats in speeches and interviews, is the highest-ranking face of the Biden White House at the Dubai negotiations.
She used her conference platform to push that image, announcing several new U.S. climate initiatives, including a record-setting $3 billion pledge for the so-called Green Climate Fund, which aims to help countries adapt to climate change and reduce emissions. The commitment echoes an identical pledge Barack Obama made in 2014 — of which only $1 billion was delivered. The U.S. Treasury Department later specified that the updated commitment was “subject to the availability of funds.”
Meanwhile, back in D.C., the Biden administration strategically timed the release of new rules to crack down on planet-warming methane emissions from the oil and gas sector — a significant milestone in its plan to prevent climate catastrophe.
The trip allows Harris to bolster her credentials on a policy issue critical to the young voters key to President Joe Biden’s re-election campaign — and potentially to a future Harris White House run.
“Given her knowledge base with the issue, her passion for the issue, it strikes me as a smart move for her to broaden that message out to the international audience,” said Roger Salazar, a California political strategist and former aide to then-Vice President Al Gore, a lifetime climate campaigner.
Yet sending Harris also presents political peril.
Biden has taken flak from critics for not attending the talks himself after representing the United States at the last two U.N. climate summits since taking office. And climate advocates have questioned the Biden administration’s embrace of the summit’s leader, Sultan al-Jaber, given he also runs the United Arab Emirates’ state-owned oil giant. John Kerry, Biden’s climate envoy, has argued the partnership can help bring fossil fuel megaliths to the table.
Harris has been on a climate policy roadshow in recent months, discussing the issue during a series of interviews at universities and other venues packed with young people and environmental advocates. The administration said it views Harris — a former California senator and attorney general — as an effective spokesperson on climate.
“The vice president’s leadership on climate goes back to when she was the district attorney of San Francisco, as she established one of the first environmental justice units in the nation,” a senior administration official told reporters on a call previewing her trip.
Joining Harris in Dubai are Kerry, White House climate adviser Ali Zaidi and John Podesta, who’s leading the White House effort to implement Biden’s signature climate law.
Biden officials are leaning on that climate law — dubbed the Inflation Reduction Act — to prove the U.S. is doing its part to slash global emissions. Yet climate activists remain skeptical, chiding Biden for separately approving a series of fossil fuel projects, including an oil drilling initiative in Alaska and an Appalachian natural gas pipeline.
Similarly, the Biden administration’s opening COP28 pledge of $17.5 million for a new international climate aid fund frustrated advocates for developing nations combating climate threats. The figure lagged well behind other allies, several of whom committed $100 million or more.
Nonetheless, Harris called for aggressive action in her speech, which was followed by a session with other officials on renewable energy. The vice president committed the U.S. to doubling its energy efficiency and tripling its renewable energy capacity by 2030, joining a growing list of countries. The U.S. also said Saturday it was joining a global alliance dedicated to divorcing the world from coal-based energy.
Like other world leaders, Harris also used her trip to conduct a whirlwind of diplomacy over the war between Israel and Hamas, which has flared back up after a brief truce.
U.S. National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said Harris would be meeting with “regional leaders” to discuss “our desire to see this pause restored, our desire to see aid getting back in, our desire to see hostages get out.”
The war has intruded into the proceedings at the climate summit, with Israeli President Isaac Herzog and Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas both skipping their scheduled speaking slots on Friday. Iran’s delegation also walked out of the summit, objecting to Israel’s presence.
Kirby said Harris will convey “that we believe the Palestinian people need a vote and a voice in their future, and then they need governance in Gaza that will look after their aspirations and their needs.”
Although Biden won’t be going to Dubai, the administration said these climate talks are “especially” vital, given countries will decide how to respond to a U.N. assessment that found the world’s climate efforts are falling short.
“This is why the president has made climate a keystone of his administration’s foreign policy agenda,” the senior administration official said.
Robin Bravender reported from Washington, D.C. Zia Weise and Charlie Cooper reported from Dubai.
Sara Schonhardt contributed reporting from Washington, D.C.
FIVE people have died in a massive avalanche in Iran and four others have been left seriously injured.
Rescue workers found five bodies on the 13,000 ft mountain after local authorities warned about the risks following extreme weather.
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Rescue workers found five bodies on the 13,000 ft mountain after the avalanche
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The climbers had been warned about weather conditions before they began the ascent on Thursday
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Rescuers dig for survivors in the snow
Four survivors were rushed to hospital on Friday after starting the dangerous climb the day before.
The climbers were taking on Iran’s 4,150-metre Oshtorankuh mountain, around 180 miles southwest of Tehran, when they were caught up in the snow.
Its highest San Boran peak, has seen extreme weather conditions of heavy rain and snow in recent weeks, according to state news outlet IRNA.
In a statement, the Iranian Red Crescent said: “Yesterday, following the avalanche in Oshtorankuh, Lorestan, nine people had an accident, of which four people were taken to the hospital with the efforts of aid workers, and unfortunately five people were also missing.
“The bodies of two of the missing people were found yesterday.
“The bodies of three more missing climbers were found a few minutes ago with the efforts of the Red Crescent rescuers.”
While avalanches are not common in Iran, a deadly one in 2020 killed 12 people in mountains north of Tehran.
The Iranian Red Crescent posted footage online of rescuers working to free any survivors from the snow and to find bodies of those who didn’t survive.
They said in a statement under the clip on Thursday: “The moment one of the missing climbers was found by Red Crescent rescuers.
“Before noon today (December 3) following the avalanche in Ashtrankoh Lorestan, unfortunately 5 climbers were missing and the bodies of 2 people were found during the search and rescue operation.
“The search operation for 3 other climbers is still ongoing.”
The Israeli-Hamas war has given Russia a golden opportunity to sow division among its Western enemies. It’s a chance Vladimir Putin’s disinformation machine was never going to miss.
Since the outbreak of hostilities on October 7, Kremlin-linked Facebook accounts have ramped up their output by almost 400 percent, with the Middle East crisis now dominating posts from Russian diplomats, state-backed outlets and Putin supporters in the West.
The entrenched — and bloody — conflict represents a double opportunity for Putin.
It allows Russia to foment division in the West via targeted social media activity aimed at splitting those in support of Israel from those who back Palestine. Real-world violence, particularly against Jews, has spiked over the last seven weeks and anti-war protests by hundreds of thousands of people have sprouted up from London to Washington.
Russia’s Middle East social media onslaught also pulls public attention away from its war in Ukraine, which has become bogged down after a succession of military missteps, a mutiny by Wagner mercenaries, and a long-running counteroffensive from Kyiv.
“Taking attention off Ukraine is only a good thing for Russia,” said Bret Schafer, head of the information manipulation team and the German Marshall Fund of the United States’ Alliance for Securing Democracy, a Washington-based think tank. “The more the Western public is focused on Israel and Hamas, the less they’re paying attention to the fact that Congress is about to not fund Ukraine’s war effort,” he added. “Shining a light on other places pulls attention away from Ukraine.”
The Kremlin’s online assault mirrors Putin’s geopolitical game-playing since the Hamas attacks of October 7.
His government hosted Hamas leaders in Moscow at the end of October — apparently as he sought to play a mediation role on the release of Israeli hostages. Russia and Hamas have a common ally in Iran and Putin himself has warned that Israeli military action in Gaza could escalate beyond the region.
The Kremlin was quick to weaponize the Israel-Hamas war for its own propaganda purposes.
In the seven weeks since Hamas fighters attacked Israel, Russian Facebook accounts have posted 44,000 times compared to a mere 14,000 posts in the seven weeks before the conflict began, according to data compiled by the Alliance for Securing Democracy. In total, Russian-backed social media activity on Facebook was shared almost 400,000 times collectively, a four-fold increase compared to posts published before the conflict.
The most-shared keywords now include many phrases associated with the conflict like “Hamas” and the “Middle East,” while before the war, Russia’s state media and diplomatic accounts had focused almost exclusively on either Ukraine or Putin’s role in the world.
The near-400 percent increase in posts from Russian government-linked accounts represents a drop in the ocean compared to the millions of Facebook posts about the Middle East conflict from regular social media users over the same time period. But many of the Kremlin-backed accounts — especially those from sanctioned media outlets like RT and Sputnik — have an oversized digital reach. Collectively, these companies boast millions of followers in Europe, Latin America and Africa, even though the EU has imposed sanctions on their broadcast and social media operations.
Surfing the wave
“They use whatever they can to spread anti-West messaging,” said Jakub Kalenský, a deputy director at the European Center of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats, a joint NATO-EU organization tracking state-backed influence campaigns. “They surf on the wave of the news cycle because they are competing for the same audience that is consuming solid media sources.”
Such digital propaganda can have real-world effects. Some in the West now openly question how long governments can support Ukraine in its costly war against Russia in a time of economic uncertainty.
In France, for instance, the foreign affairs ministry accused a Russian-affiliated network of social media bots of amplifying anti-semitic images of Stars of David graffiti on buildings across Paris. French officials blamed Russia for “creating tensions” between supporters of Israel and those who favored Palestine. The Russian embassy in Paris said Moscow had no ties to the covert digital activity.
The goal of the clandestine campaign was to heighten real-world tensions — both in France and across Western Europe — over which side governments are backing, according to two senior European officials speaking on condition of anonymity.
“What happens online never just stays online anymore,” one of the officials said.
Several U.S. service members were injured in a ballistic missile attack by Iranian-backed militias on Al-Asad Airbase in Iraq, Pentagon officials said Monday.
The attack Sunday night on U.S. and coalition forces involved a close-range ballistic missile and resulted in eight injuries and minor infrastructural damage, Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder, a Pentagon spokesperson, said in a statement.
U.S. military responded with a retaliatory strike, which was not pre-planned, killing several Iranian-backed militia personnel, CBS News learned.
“Immediately following the attack, a U.S. military AC-130 aircraft in the area conducted a self-defense strike against an Iranian-backed militia vehicle and a number of Iranian-backed militia personnel involved in this attack,” Ryder said in his statement.
In a tweet, U.S. Central Command said the U.S. gunship “maintained visual confirmation of the individuals from the time of the launch to the time of engagement.”
The U.S. conducted further “precision strikes” against two facilities in Iraq early Wednesday morning local time, CENTCOM said in a statement.
“The strikes were in direct response to the attacks against U.S. and Coalition forces by Iran and Iran-backed groups, including the one in Iraq on November 21, which involved use of close-range ballistic missiles,” the statement read.
The U.S. service members wounded in the attack are still being evaluated, a Pentagon official told CBS News, adding that this was the 66th attack against American-affiliated military bases in Iraq and Syria since Oct. 17.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken exchanges challenge coins with the U.S. Marine Corps embassy security guard detachment in Baghdad, Iraq, on Nov. 5, 2023.
While Iranian-backed groups have targeted U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria with a mix of drones and rockets, this was the first time a short-range missile was used to attack American troops since Oct. 17, Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh said at a news conference Tuesday afternoon.
Of the 66 attacks in the last month, 32 were in Iraq and 34 in Syria, Singh said. The attacks have resulted in approximately 62 U.S. personnel injuries, Singh added — they do not include the injuries from Sunday’s attack.
“These groups in Iraq and Syria, that are attacking U.S. interests, have made their own decisions,” Iranian Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian told CBS News last week when pushed on whether Iran backs militant groups in the Middle East.
“We have not taken anything off the table or ruled anything out,” Singh said when asked if the U.S. will launch preemptive strikes to avoid further attacks. “We feel that we have taken appropriate action to decimate some of their facilities and some of their weapons, but again, we always reserve the right to respond at the time and place of our choosing.”
Last month, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said that “the United States does not seek conflict and has no intention nor desire to engage in further hostilities, but these Iranian-backed attacks against U.S. forces are unacceptable and must stop.”
— Eleanor Watson and Mary Walsh contributed reporting.
Yemen’s Houthis say they have taken control of an Israeli-owned ship in the southern Red Sea, with Israel describing the incident as an “Iranian act of terrorism” with consequences for international maritime security.
A Houthi military spokesman confirmed to Al Jazeera on Sunday that its fighters hijacked the British-owned and Japanese-operated cargo ship.
At least 22 people were onboard the Galaxy Leader – reported to be partly owned by an Israeli businessman – which was en route from Turkey to India.
“We have received confirmation from a Houthi official that they hijacked this ship. Earlier today [Sunday], they announced the beginning of operations to attack Israeli-flagged ships. They warned international sailors not to work for such companies,” said Al Jazeera’s Mohammed al-Attab, reporting from Yemen’s capital, Sanaa.
“We are treating the crew in accordance with Islamic norms and principles,” said Yemen’s Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree in a statement later on Sunday.
He renewed the warning that any ship belonging to Israel or those who support it will be a legitimate target for Houthi forces.
“We confirm our continuation of military operations against [Israel] until the aggression and ugly crimes against our Palestinian brothers in Gaza and the West Bank stop,” said Saree.
The Houthis, backed by Tehran, have launched several missile and drone attacks against Israel since the latest assault on the besieged Gaza Strip began on October 7, killing more than 12,300 Palestinians, including 5,000 children.
“The Houthis have carried out a number of attacks on Iranian targets. We are expecting more attacks in the coming days,” al-Attab said.
The Israeli government called the hijack “a very serious event on a global level”, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office saying Israel was not involved in the ship’s ownership, operation or the makeup of its international crew.
“This is another Iranian act of terrorism that represents an escalation in Iran’s belligerence against the citizens of the free world, with concomitant international ramifications vis-a-vis the security of global shipping routes,” said a statement released by the prime minister’s office.
“There were no Israelis on the ship,” it said, adding the 25 crew members are from Ukraine, Mexico, the Philippines and Bulgaria, among other countries.
Israel’s military also denied the ship was Israeli. In a statement on X, it said: “The hijacking of a cargo ship by the Houthis near Yemen in the southern Red Sea is a very grave incident of global consequence.”
“The ship departed Turkey on its way to India, staffed by civilians of various nationalities, not including Israelis. It is not an Israeli ship,” the Israeli army said.
A United States defence official said the US is “aware of the situation and closely monitoring it”.
“What we understand is that the shipping company is partly owned by an Israeli businessman and this wouldn’t be the first time one of his ships was intercepted. In 2021, one of his vessels was also targeted,” said Al Jazeera’s Sara Khairat, reporting from occupied East Jerusalem.
Al Jazeera’s Dorsa Jabbari, reporting from Tehran, said there has been no evidence put forth by Israel that Iran is behind the hijack.
“This is an accusation made by the Israeli prime minister’s office without any concrete evidence to support it,” she said.
The war in Gaza has sent tensions soaring in the region, with international organisations and political leaders warning of a potential wider regional conflict.
“Iran in the past has distanced itself from these various armed groups in the Middle East that are against Israel,” Jabbari said.
“But given Israel’s continuous bombardment of Gaza and what they call ‘genocide’ against the Palestinian population, the Iranians are saying the conflict could spread.”
In an interview with CBS News foreign correspondent Holly Williams on Wednesday, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian denied that his country was responsible for a drone attack in the Red Sea that appeared to be targeting a U.S. missile destroyer. He also addressed the Israel-Hamas war and the recent attacks by militant groups on U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria.
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A brand new lizard species with a hieroglyphic pattern on its back has been discovered among the sand dunes in eastern Iran.
The discovery, which was detailed in a study in the journal Zootaxa on November 10, was made back in 2010 in the South Khorasan province of the desert, while researchers were conducting a survey for local reptiles and amphibians.
The researchers found a total of 10 strange-looking lizards in the sand dunes, all with an unusual pattern on their skin. They discovered that it was actually an entirely new species, now named Eremias graphica, or the “hieroglyphic racerunner lizard.”
The new species is named using the Greek word “graphikos,” according to the study, as reported by the Miami Herald. This translates to either “drawn” or “written,” and was used because of the lizard’s strange pattern which resembles hieroglyphs.
A photo shows the new lizard species found in the sand dunes of Iran. A closer look at the creature shows a strange pattern on its back. Eskandar Rasegar-Pouyani, Valentina Orlova, Khosrow Rajabizadeh, Hossein Nabizadeh, Nikolay Poyarkov, Daniel Melnikov and Roman Nazarov
Hieroglyphs are generally associated with Ancient Egypt, though other forms of writing also exited at the time.
The researchers found that most of the lizards were about 7 inches long and were easily disguised in the sand dunes due to their sandy coloring, according to the study.
The researchers, who are from multiple organizations from across Russia and Iran, analyzed 93 genetic samples from the lizards in the desert.
“We hypothesize that the diversification of the Eremias fasciata species complex was largely influenced by the fragmentation of sand massifs in the region,” an abstract from the study read. “This same hypothesis has been used to explain the high level of endemism among the sand-dwelling species of reptiles along the Iranian Plateau in the same area. The two new species described herein can be distinguished from other congeneric species by their phylogenetic position and a combination of morphological characters. We use these data to discuss the taxonomy of Eremias based on morphology, habitat choice, and genetic data.”
The study noted that the lizards can mainly be found scuttling around the vegetation found in the sand dunes, the Miami Herald reported. They can also be found burrowing for shade and shelter. The researchers reported that they typically eat insects.
Closer analysis of the creature showed that it was most active during some hours in the morning, and evening. During the rest of the day, it tends to hide under the bushes of the sand dunes.
So far, the new species has only been found near one road near the city of Tabas, in central-eastern Iran.
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Iranian dissidents living abroad say they’re spied on, as intelligence agencies worldwide accuse Iran of a global campaign to intimidate, abduct, and assassinate its critics and perceived enemies.
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First, Iran’s push to crush its critics abroad. Then, Ukraine accuses Russia of looting museums. And, a look inside the federal horse doping investigation.
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Tensions keep rising between the U.S. and Iran since the Israel-Hamas war began – almost every week Iranian-backed militias have attacked U.S. bases in Syria and Iraq. It’s the latest example, and a serious escalation, of Tehran’s use of proxy fighters – like Hezbollah and Hamas. Tonight you’ll hear of another type of proxy that Iran deploys, that receives far less attention. Tehran is hiring hitmen around the world in an effort to intimidate, abduct, and assassinate perceived enemies of the regime. And they’re doing it right here, on U.S. soil.
This video was posted online by a channel affiliated with Iran’s Revolutionary Guard. It vows to kill former American government officials – including President Trump – to avenge the 2020 U.S. assassination of the terrorism mastermind Qassem Soleimani.
Threats like this have been deemed credible enough that several of these officials have been under round-the-clock protection, including former Defense Secretary Mark Esper; former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo – Iran reportedly offered a hitman a million dollars to kill him; and John Bolton, the former national security advisor.
John Bolton: They bargained the price for me would be $300,000, which I have to say I found insulting.
Lesley Stahl: So what exactly was the plot against you?
John Bolton: The Revolutionary Guard sought to procure either my kidnapping or my assassination, not directly by a Revolutionary Guard’s member, but by seeking a hitman, who would carry out the job either in the U.S. or abroad.
John Bolton
60 Minutes
The FBI has an arrest warrant out for this Iranian officer, claiming that he hired the hitman online to travel to Washington, corner Bolton in a garage and kill him. But it turned out, lucky for Bolton, the assassin was an FBI informant.
John Bolton: This was not internet chatter. This was a negotiation to murder an American citizen, a former government official.
Lesley Stahl: Is the threat against you ongoing?
John Bolton: We’ve got marked Secret Service cars that say, “Police. United States Secret Service,” outside my home.
We talked to the FBI and several intelligence agencies and they told us that Iran’s efforts are becoming more frequent and bolder. And that they often go after vocal Iranian activists living abroad.
Masih Alinejad: The idea behind assassination plot, behind kidnapping plot is to keep you silent.
We met one of their targets in Brooklyn. Masih Alinejad is a leader in the women’s revolt against the law in Iran mandating they wear a headscarf – or hijab. Forced to flee 14 years ago, she settled here in Brooklyn where she encourages women back home to send her videos of them taking off the hijabs and she spreads those images online to her 10 million or so followers – fueling the protest movement.
Lesley Stahl: So the mullahs began to focus on you. The FBI came and told you there was a plot against you.
Masih Alinejad: There were, like, six or seven FBI agents. When they came to my house, they told me that, “Your life is in danger.” I was like, “Okay, tell me something new.” Because we Iranians are used to it. But they actually said, “No, this time it’s different.” They said that “The Iranian regime hired private investigator on U.S. soil, to take photos of your movement, your daily life, your routine.” And I was like, “Wow, so they’re here in New York, in Brooklyn?”
Lesley Stahl: The plot was to kidnap you and take you by speedboat to Venezuela?
Masih Alinejad: Hey, it sounds like a scary movie to you, no?
Lesley Stahl: No. It sounds implausible to me.
Masih Alinejad: You see, it’s a reality for us.
Masih Alinejad
60 Minutes
And a reality for the FBI, that says the plan was to get her to Iran to stand trial. It was the same for Jamshid Sharmahd, another Iranian dissident who lived in Los Angeles for two decades and created a website where people in Iran could report human rights abuses. In 2020, while he was changing planes in Dubai on a business trip, his family noticed his phone started heading in the wrong direction. His daughter, Gazelle Sharmahd, soon saw her dad pop up on Iranian TV in a courtroom – looking petrified.
Gazelle Sharmahd: He’s forced to confessions about crimes he did not commit. The charge that they gave him is “corruption on Earth.” That’s why he got the death sentence.
Lesley Stahl: Is it a situation where he could actually be executed any day —
Gazelle Sharmahd: Oh yes. They want to hang him from a crane in the middle of the city.
The original plot to kidnap Masih was thwarted, but according to the FBI, a year later, in 2022, Iran paid this Azerbaijani, living outside New York City, $30,000 to buy a semi-automatic rifle and kill her. He lurked outside her home for a week. His plan was to take advantage of her friendliness to her neighbors.
Masih Alinejad: He was actually following my life. He knew that I was the one offering flowers to strangers.
Lesley Stahl: You offered flowers to strangers?
Masih Alinejad: Yeah. This is me. So he received a text message from the guy inside Iran, saying that “Go and knock the door. Then take her to the backyard garden.” If I had opened the door, I would have just given him a big smile and said, “Yes, let’s go to my garden.” And then he wanted to just kill me?
Lesley Stahl: Did he actually knock on your door?
Masih Alinejad: Yes.
Her home security camera actually caught him on her porch trying to get in. Eventually he took off but was pulled over for running a stop sign. That’s when the police found this in his car. He’s been in custody awaiting trial ever since.
But here’s what’s interesting: neither he nor two other men the prosecutors say were hired for the job were Iranian. Like him, they were Eastern European and, as is becoming a trademark of Iran’s shadow war, they were criminals.
Masih Alinejad: They were all from criminal syndicate. This is what the Islamic Republic is really good at, like, using drug dealers, using criminals to do their dirty job on the Western soil.
Lesley Stahl: Well, and maybe have deniability.
Masih Alinejad: Exactly.
Lesley Stahl: “We didn’t do it.”
Masih Alinejad: That’s the point.
Lesley Stahl: So why do they use proxies?
Matt Jukes: To have somebody who is not being tracked by intelligence or security agencies for this.
Matt Jukes, head of Counter Terrorism Policing in the U.K.
60 Minutes
Matt Jukes, head of Counter Terrorism Policing in Britain, says this is not just an American problem. In the U.K., they have foiled 15 Iranian kidnapping and assassination attempts since last year.
Matt Jukes: I have been involved in national security policing for over 20 years. What we’ve seen in the last 18 months is a real acceleration.
Lesley Stahl: We have been told that a lot of these criminal gangs hire other criminal gangs, and then maybe a third group.
Matt Jukes: I think we’re always gonna see this collaboration between criminal organizations. We know that this will not always be a direct line from a state organization to a threat to a potential kidnapping.
This recording was given to us by a foreign intelligence agency. It shows how Iran recruits criminals:
Man on recording (translation): I received a call from the IRGC, the Revolutionary Guard.
This is an Iranian smuggler from Urmia, a town near the Turkish border. He reveals to the foreign agents that he was approached by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard with a deal: they’ll turn a blind eye to his smuggling if he helps them.
Man on recording (translation): Their request was that I find people who could work for them. What kind of work? “Anything. Like: catching someone for us so they can be beaten up or gotten rid of.”
This surveillance video shows him recruiting a fellow smuggler for the task: the man in white is Mansour Rasouli, an alleged drug dealer. He agreed to arrange assassinations throughout Europe for the Iranian government – for money. But a few weeks later, Rasouli was kidnapped at night and interrogated in a car, reportedly by Israeli intelligence. They extracted this cellphone confession, where Rasouli admits he was paid $150,000 upfront and promised a million dollars if he killed three people for the Iranians:
Rasouli confession tape (translation): One is an Israeli at the embassy in Istanbul, Turkey. Another one is an American general in Germany. And one is a journalist in France.
The French target was identified as philosopher Bernard Henri Levy, a vocal critic of the regime in Tehran. The identity of the American general remains a mystery. The plot to kill the three was prevented. But in recent years, Iranian dissidents were successfully kidnapped and smuggled to Iran. Several were executed.
Lesley Stahl: They’ve succeeded in Europe. They haven’t succeeded in the United States, even though we know there are targets –
John Bolton: Right.
Lesley Stahl: So many American officials and others are being targeted. Why is it not a bigger issue?
John Bolton: Look I think the targeting of American citizens by a hostile foreign government is very close to an act of war.
Lesley Stahl: What would happen if they succeeded in assassinating someone like you, a well-known former official?
John Bolton: Well, I wouldn’t like to find out for myself or for the country, but why are we sitting here, quietly talking about this when they are, in effect, saying they’re gonna commit acts of war against American citizens on American soil?
Lesley Stahl: Does the fact that Iran feels emboldened to come after our citizens — does that mean we’ve lost our deterrence?
John Bolton: Well, I think we have lost deterrence. And I think this also goes to an unwillingness on the part of the administration to confront the Ayatollahs in a way that they understand.
Masih Alinejad: They can challenge U.S. government on U.S. soil without any punishment. Then what’s the reason to stop–
Lesley Stahl: Well, there are sanctions against them.
Lesley Stahl and Masih Alinejad
60 Minutes
Masih Alinejad: Sanction is not sufficient. Sanction is not—helping —
Lesley Stahl: What do want us to do? Drop a bomb?
Masih Alinejad: No. Look, when you negotiate with the killers, you’re empowering them.
The Biden administration didn’t respond to our requests for an interview. When Masih Alinejad was called to testify before Congress about Iran in September, she said that unless the administration’s policy changes, her life will continue to be in danger.
Masih Alinejad: I believe that when I’m not in the spotlight, when media like you are not paying attention to me, finally they’re going to come after me.
While she now has the freedom to speak her mind in America, she does not have the freedom to live where she wants. Masih and her family have had to go into hiding, under FBI protection.
Masih Alinejad: It’s like: Wow, the government from my own country trying to kill me, but my adopted country trying to protect me. You have to be an Iranian to survive assassination plot, to understand that, how it feels to survive in America and to have the platform and to criticize the U.S. government–
For the second time in two weeks, the United States carried out airstrikes against what the Pentagon says is an Iran-linked weapons warehouse in Syria. Nancy Cordes has our report with more on this ongoing escalation that the Pentagon says has become more dangerous.
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Last winter, Europeans faced exorbitant energy bills as the Continent rapidly weaned itself off Russian gas. This year the EU is better prepared — but now a second war also threatens to roil its energy markets.
The conflict between Israel and Hamas threatens to disrupt Europe’s relationships with the Middle East, or even draw Iran into direct confrontation with Israel and its Western partners. While markets are relatively calm for now, either of those scenarios could cause chaos.
Nevertheless, Europe is “equipped to face oil and diesel global market tightness,” Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson told POLITICO in an interview. Officials have learned lessons from Russia’s war on Ukraine, and are working to build “a good understanding of all our vulnerabilities to best address them and how we can be prepared for any incidents or emergencies.”
EU officials have held a slew of meetings with oil-producing nations in recent weeks, both old friends like Norway and emerging partners such as Algeria and Nigeria, to get ahead of any potential disruptions, she said.
“After the Gaza crisis unfolded, we are faced with two conflicts in the European neighborhood. The Eastern Mediterranean is an important theater for European energy security, as Europe’s energy transition is still entangled in geopolitical uncertainties,” Simson said, attributing the lack of drama in the markets to “the preparedness and crisis management that the EU put in place to respond to Russia’s energy blackmail.”
Fighting in Gaza and, to a lesser extent, along Israel’s northern border with Lebanon has had only a limited impact on oil markets. Prices initially rose on the news of the attack by Hamas militants on October 7 and Israel’s massive response, but key crude benchmark Brent dropped back by 4.2 percent this week to around $81 per barrel, around the levels seen before the start of the violence.
Markets have avoided a repeat of 1973, when the Yom Kippur War between Israel and its neighbors prompted the big Arab producers, led by Saudi Arabia, to embargo their exports to Israel’s allies. Gulf country relations with Israel have improved markedly in the past 50 years: The UAE and Bahrain recognized its sovereignty under the 2020 Abraham Accords, while Saudi Arabia is in negotiations to do the same.
Traders are therefore betting that as long as the conflict doesn’t expand, supplies of oil will remain more or less stable, said Viktor Katona, lead crude analyst at energy intelligence firm Kpler.
The risk stems more from Iran, he said. In the worst case, an expansion of the conflict could cause Iran to disrupt shipping from Gulf Arab countries through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s own crude oil, while sanctioned by the West, is exported in large quantities to China. “If Israel starts to strike the Iranian territory and Iran as a consequence needs to export less, then China doesn’t have enough crude and needs to buy from somewhere else,” sending global prices rocketing, Katona said. “It’s an entire spiral that gets triggered immediately.”
While Iran’s theocratic leadership has consistently vowed to destroy the state of Israel and publicly endorsed Hamas’ attacks last month, it denies involvement in their planning and execution. The Israel Defense Forces say they have carried out strikes on militant groups in Syria with close links to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, but have so far stopped short of hitting targets inside Iran itself.
Lessons learned
Gas markets felt a more immediate impact from the war. Israel turned off the taps at its Tamar offshore gas field in the hours following Hamas’ surprise attack, amid reports that it was a target for rocket attacks. While Israel produces only relatively small quantities of natural gas — around 21 billion cubic meters last year, compared to Russia’s 618 billion — it is a key exporter to neighboring Egypt, and the downtime worsened regular rolling power outages there. The flow has since been resumed, albeit in smaller quantities.
Any escalation with Iran could affect gas as well as oil markets, given a third of the world’s liquefied natural gas and a sixth of its oil is shipped through the Strait of Hormuz. “If things stay as they are there’s no problem, but if there’s a war where Iran was included and they [block trade through] the Hormuz strait then prices will go up for sure,” said one EU diplomat with knowledge of internal energy strategy talks, granted anonymity to speak candidly.
However, “all the big players want to avoid escalation, Iran wants to avoid this” because of threat of sanctions, the envoy insisted.
Absent that dire scenario, the impact on EU gas markets is likely to be limited, says Tom Marzec-Manser, head of gas analytics at commodities intelligence company ICIS — but more because of the last conflict than the most recent one.
“From a European gas pricing perspective, we’re still looking relatively OK and that’s been driven largely by weak demand. Many industrial consumers continue to use noticeably less gas than they did prior to the energy crisis last year, so consumption in Europe has remained low,” he said.
According to the European Commission, member states collectively shaved almost 20 percent from their natural gas use in the run-up to last winter, with industry slowing output and renewable power playing a much larger role in electricity generation. Despite that, consumption actually rose in October for the first time since the start of the war, in an early sign that businesses could be tentatively trying to restore lost productivity.
But even though the bloc’s gas reserves are more than 99 percent full ahead of schedule, prices have still remained stubbornly high across the Continent compared to other regions. That means Europeans are more at risk of short-term spikes in the cost of energy, with industry potentially having to slow down again if bills become unaffordable.
“We are in a much better situation than in 2022,” said Georg Zachmann, a senior fellow at the Bruegel energy think tank. “We have more heat pumps, power plants are back in the picture that we didn’t have available last year, and we’ve built more liquified natural gas terminals.” However, he warned, if member states lose focus on reducing demand and try to give their own industries a head start with subsidies, that could spark a wasteful race “that is essentially to everyone’s detriment.”
At the same time, winter in Europe isn’t what it used to be. Record-breaking temperatures have been recorded across the globe for the past four months, according to an EU Copernicus satellite monitoring report published this week, while last winter was the second-warmest ever recorded on the Continent. While that might be good news for conflict-prone fossil fuel supplies in the short term, it’s probably bad news for just about everything else in the not-so-much-longer term.
The Pentagon said Wednesday that it has launched airstrikes on a weapons storage facility in eastern Syria linked to Iranian-backed militia groups. The strike was in response to a series of recent attacks against U.S. personnel in Iraq and Syria, the Pentagon said. Weijia Jiang reports.
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Secretary of State Antony Blinken made an unannounced stop to Iraq on Sunday. It comes after U.S. forces have been targeted by Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and Syria. Christina Ruffini reports from Washington, D.C.
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