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Tag: investor sentiment

  • Can the Fear and Greed Index guide your investments? It’s showing ‘Extreme Fear.’

    The Fear and Greed Index is leaning far into the “Extreme Fear” measure. However, if you know anything about such measures of investor angst, you may ask, “Which Fear and Greed Index?”

    There is one trusted Wall Street measure of uncertainty — the VIX, a volatility tracker from the Chicago Board Options Exchange — and there are other gauges that measure investor sentiment toward cryptocurrencies and gold.

    If you want a sentiment barometer for your portfolio, the investment will determine which Fear and Greed Index you will want to reference.

    Read more: Prediction markets: What they are and how they work

    The VIX is the most widely watched measure of volatility in the stock market, and there has been a recent spike in the VIX.

    Yahoo Finance Markets and Data Editor Jared Blikre and “Asking for a Trend” host Josh Lipton provided an overview of market trends, including the VIX, on late Thursday.

    “The VIX has been trending higher,” Blikre said. “The VIX also historically tends to spike in October and November. So the worst might not be behind us.”

    However, market volatility is not necessarily the same as “fear and greed.” For that, you might look at the CNN Fear and Greed Index, which is showing “Extreme Fear” as of Nov. 21.

    CNN’s Fear and Greed Index measures:

    • Market momentum: By tracking 125-trading-day averages of the S&P 500 index.

    • Stock price strength: This is the number of net new highs or lows on the New York Stock Exchange.

    • Stock price breadth: This is a measure of stocks on the NYSE that are rising compared to those that are falling.

    • Put and call option: Puts are options to sell; calls are options to buy. If the ratio of puts to calls is rising, it’s a signal of bearish investors.

    • Market volatility: Using the VIX, if volatility rises, it’s a sign of fear.

    • Safe haven demand: This is a measure of when Treasury bond returns are higher than stocks over 20 trading days.

    • Junk bond demand: When investors turn to high-yield bonds over government bonds, it’s a sign of greed.

    While financial advisors may recommend only a sweetener of cryptocurrency to a risk-adjusted portfolio, this is the Fear and Greed Index that gets the most swing for the money. Cryptocurrency has a boom-or-bust mentality that changes frequently.

    CoinMarketCap measures crypto market sentiment with its Crypto Fear and Greed Index, which, coincidentally or not, is also in the “Extreme Fear” mode.

    CMC fear index

    CoinMarketCap says it calculates the index using five factors:

    Price momentum: This measures price performance of the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization (excluding stablecoins).

    Volatility: The index measures expected volatility over the next 30 days in the trading of bitcoin and ethereum.

    Derivatives market: Like CNN’s stock fear index, CMC considers the put/call ratio — but instead of stocks, it’s looking at the bitcoin and ethereum options markets.

    Market composition: Measures the relative value of bitcoin and that of major stablecoins.

    CMC proprietary data: Includes keyword searches, user engagement metrics, retail interest, and emerging trends.

    Finally, there’s the gold Fear and Greed Index. Stock market pessimists have long advocated stashing a pile of gold bars in the basement.

    JM Bullion sells precious metals and hosts a Fear and Greed Index for Gold, which is now solidly planted in the “Greed” quintile.

    bullion fear

    The price of gold has jumped recently, as the equity and crypto markets have stalled.

    JM Bullion states that its fear index considers physical gold price premiums, gold spot price volatility, social media sentiment, retail activity, and Google Trends for gold search terms.

    Read more: How to invest in gold in 4 steps

    Of course, the answer is that neither fear nor greed should play a part in investment decisions. While it may be entertaining to know if the world thinks it is on fire or merely burning, your life after work needs to be financed.

    Lisa Shalett, wealth management chief investment officer for Morgan Stanley, recommends investors maintain a focus on strategic asset class diversification.

    “Real assets, municipal bonds, intermediate-term U.S. treasuries, real estate, and select private infrastructure are our favorite opportunities to add,” Shalett said in a Morgan Stanley video insight in October.

    “Bull markets are meant to be ridden and not timed, and our foundational advice is to be fully invested according to your strategic asset allocation,” she added.

    Read more: Create a stock investing strategy in 3 steps

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  • Have $2,000? 2 Magnificent Stocks Ready for a Bull Run

    Have $2,000? 2 Magnificent Stocks Ready for a Bull Run

    Stocks across a range of industries and sectors have dealt with unique challenges over the last few years. While some companies are still dealing with the effects of a slowdown in growth following pandemic highs, it’s important to look at the underlying businesses and not just stock prices to see if a long-term buying proposition remains intact.

    If you have $2,000 to invest in stocks right now, there are plenty of wonderful businesses begging to be bought. Here are two such names to consider for your buy basket right now, both of which the market has heavily discounted over the trailing 12 months.

    1. Pfizer

    Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) has had a significant adjustment as a business after the height of its successes during the pandemic from the COVID-19 vaccine, Comirnaty, and oral antiviral medication, Paxlovid. While it was inevitable that there would be a steep sales cliff after the pandemic-era demand for these products waned, investor sentiment has not been kind to the stock in recent months.

    Over the last year, the stock has declined by over 30%. Now, shares of Pfizer are trading at a price-to-sales multiple of around 2.6. While a low valuation in and of itself is never the sole reason you should purchase a stock, it’s definitely food for thought when you’re looking at one of the world’s largest pharmaceutical companies with a broad portfolio of medicines and considerable growth potential still to come.

    There’s no denying that the momentum of COVID-19 products slowing has had a notable impact on Pfizer’s balance sheet. Still, Pfizer pulled in full-year revenue of just shy of $59 billion in 2023. And excluding COVID-19 products from the mix, its top line grew by a healthy 7% from the prior-year period, which is a solid growth rate for a business in this stage of maturity.

    Pfizer was profitable in 2023 — net income according to generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) totaled $2.1 billion — but that was a steep decline from one year ago when 2022 net income came to $31.3 billion. That isn’t just a function of declining product sales. Pfizer is investing heavily in the future growth of its business, which is also affecting the performance of its bottom line.

    Last year, Pfizer completed one of the biggest acquisitions in the history of the company when it bought Seagen, a company that specializes in cancer medicines. This is one very important cog in the machine of Pfizer’s overall strategy to add $25 billion in annual revenue to its balance sheet by 2030 through external business development deals.

    The company had more products approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration than any other last year, and it’s working toward a goal of $70 billion to $84 billion in non-COVID revenue by the year 2030. Management also noted in the 2023 earnings call that Seagen’s medicines along with other portfolio additions are expected to add a minimum of eight new products with blockbuster potential to Pfizer’s lineup by 2030.

    In the meantime, investors are benefiting from Pfizer’s lackluster share price performance, in the sense that its dividend yield has soared. That yield is about 6% at the time of this writing. Over the years, Pfizer has steadily raised its dividend, with a total growth rate of about 17% in the trailing five-year period alone.

    The company is in the midst of a transition period, and any investor who buys a slice of the company is going to feel the impact of that in its share price performance, likely for the foreseeable future. However, patience may pay off for long-term investors looking for a steady portfolio performer and passive dividend income.

    2. Teladoc

    Teladoc (NYSE: TDOC) has been heavily sold off by investors in recent months. As of the time of this article, shares are down about 43% from one year ago and 34% just from the start of 2024. I’ve been a faithful shareholder in this business for a few years now, and I can attest to the fact that it hasn’t been an easy ride. While the negative tides of investor sentiment seem to be firmly against this stock at the moment, I have maintained my position in this business, which I still think holds considerable potential for long-term investors.

    Investors seem to be stuck on a few core issues that have driven the sell-off of the business. One is the notable slowdown in growth from Teladoc’s pandemic heights. While growth has certainly moderated from pre-pandemic and early pandemic times, there’s no denying that the pandemic brought about a supercharged period of growth for the business that otherwise may have been realized over a much longer period of time.

    Following that pandemic stretch, a normalization of that trajectory was to be expected. This is a mature business that remains a global leader in the telehealth industry, a space that is still expanding steadily as the demand for quality virtual healthcare solutions continues worldwide.

    The other sticking point for investors has been its continued unprofitability. While Teladoc did record close to $14 billion worth of impairment charges in 2022, almost all of that amount was a noncash expense. Accounting losses aren’t great, but they are infinitely better than actual operational losses.

    As of the fourth quarter of 2023, Teladoc shrunk its net loss to just around $29 million, compared to the $3 billion net loss it reported in the final stretch of 2022. Moreover, adjusted earnings came in at $328 million for the full year, a 33% increase from 2022.

    It’s also worth pointing out that revenue is on the upswing, and the company is raking in cash at a healthy pace. Teladoc’s 2023 revenue totaled $2.6 billion, an 8% increase from one year ago, while full-year cash from operations came in at $350 million.

    Total visits on Teladoc’s platform were down slightly year over year, but the company ended 2023 with 89.6 million integrated care members and 1.2 million chronic care enrollees. Those cohorts represented increases of 8% and 14%, respectively, from the end of 2022.

    Investors shouldn’t expect pandemic-spurred growth numbers from this business, most likely, but that doesn’t mean its best days are behind it, either. The growth story for Teladoc isn’t over, and for forward-thinking investors, this beaten-down stock could represent an intriguing buying opportunity at its current valuation.

    Should you invest $1,000 in Pfizer right now?

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    Rachel Warren has positions in Teladoc Health. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Pfizer and Teladoc Health. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

    Have $2,000? 2 Magnificent Stocks Ready for a Bull Run was originally published by The Motley Fool

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  • Stock Futures Rise, Dollar Weakens in Thin Trading: Markets Wrap

    Stock Futures Rise, Dollar Weakens in Thin Trading: Markets Wrap

    (Bloomberg) — US equity futures edged higher while the dollar extended losses as trading resumed after the Christmas holiday amid investor expectations for earlier and deep interest rate cuts next year.

    Most Read from Bloomberg

    Stocks in Asia were mixed in a thin trading session with markets including Hong Kong, New Zealand and Australia shut. Emerging Asian currencies rose, with South Korea’s won and Taiwan dollar leading gains against a weak dollar that fell to its lowest level in almost five months.

    Some on Wall Street are positioning for further stock gains ahead as the session kicked off the start of the “Santa Claus rally” — a seasonal trend where equities tend to climb into the first few days of the new year. The S&P 500 notched an eight-week winning run on Friday — the longest in more than five years on signs price pressures in the US were easing. Ten-year US Treasury yields slid two basis points to 3.88%.

    “As for emerging markets in Asia, ‘silent night’ says much, given that there isn’t particularly inspired trading, with Wall Street equivocating ahead of Christmas,” said Vishnu Varathan, head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank. “It looks like a case of averting the China drag and hanging on to earlier Santa rallies being the best case for Boxing day – boxing in risks.”

    Stocks fell in mainland China, with the benchmark CSI 300 Index headed for its first drop in four sessions, as investor sentiment remains weak even after the authorities softened their stance following a move last week to tighten curbs on the videogame industry.

    Elsewhere, Singapore dollar was little changed after core inflation edged lower in November, giving the central bank room to extend its monetary-policy pause next month to support the economy.

    Japan’s auction of two-year sovereign debt saw tepid investor appetite, sending a gauge of demand to the weakest in a year, amid speculation the central bank will end negative interest rates in 2024. Its labor market remained relatively tight in November, keeping pressure on employers to boost wages in order to fill positions.

    The benchmark Topix index traded within tight ranges after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda’s speech on Monday that suggested he’s in no hurry to end the ultra-easy monetary policy.

    “With the Nikkei 225 at high levels, year-end selling to lock in profits and losses is likely to weigh on the upside,” says Hideyuki Ishiguro, senior strategist at Nomura Asset Management.

    In the corporate world, Chinese gaming shares outperformed the benchmark after a number of companies announced plans to repurchase their shares following news of the latest government curbs on the sector. Cathie Wood last week made her first purchase of shares in LY Corp. in over a year, indicating a possible shift toward more positive sentiment on the operator of Yahoo! Japan and popular messaging app Line.

    Iron ore futures hit $140 a ton, highest in 18 months as traders keep a close eye on China’s steel outlook for the next year. Oil rose slightly after posting the largest weekly gain in more than two months, with shipping disruptions in the Red Sea in focus after a spate of Houthi attacks against vessels in the vital waterway.

    Geopolitical tensions still remain front of investors minds into the new year as tensions in the Middle East look set to increase. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi said Israel will pay a price for killing a senior commander of its Revolutionary Guard in air strike in Damascus on Monday. The US accused Iran at the weekend of an attack on a tanker in the Indian Ocean.

    READ: Israel Sees Defense Spending Climbing $8 Billion as War Rages

    US Growth Resilience

    Global markets have been buoyed in recent months as traders bet major central banks including the Federal Reserve will aggressively cut interest rates next year as inflation falls. Bond yields have tumbled while the S&P 500 is nearing a fresh record.

    Data released last week showed signs of resilience in US growth while the Fed’s preferred underlying inflation metric barely rose in November. Additional reports Friday showed consumers were also gaining conviction that inflation in the world’s largest economy was on the right track despite a bumpy housing market recovery.

    That helped cement investor expectations for earlier and deeper interest rate cuts next year, despite pushback from several Fed policymakers. Swaps traders are betting interest rates will be eased by more than 150 basis points in 2024, double the Fed’s forecast.

    Read more: Fed’s Preferred Inflation Gauges Cool, Reinforcing Rate-Cut Tilt

    Key events this week:

    • BOJ releases summery of opinions from December meeting, Wednesday

    • China industrial profits, Wednesday

    • Norway retail sales, Wednesday

    • Japan industrial production, Thursday

    • South Korea industrial production, Thursday

    • Thailand trade, Thursday

    • Mexico unemployment, Thursday

    • Bank of Portugal releases quarterly report on banking system, Thursday

    • South Korea CPI, Friday

    • Spain CPI, Friday

    • UK nationwide house prices, Friday

    • Brazil unemployment, Friday

    • Chile unemployment, Friday

    • Colombia unemployment, Friday

    Some moves in major markets:

    Stocks

    • S&P 500 futures rose 0.1% as of 6:30 a.m. London time

    • The Shanghai Composite fell 0.7%

    • Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.3%

    • Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was little changed

    Currencies

    • The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1%

    • The euro rose 0.2% to $1.1025

    • The Japanese yen was little changed at 142.25 per dollar

    • The offshore yuan was little changed at 7.1467 per dollar

    • The Australian dollar rose 0.3% to $0.6816

    • The British pound rose 0.1% to $1.2707

    Cryptocurrencies

    • Bitcoin fell 2% to $42,674.63

    • Ether fell 1.9% to $2,229.68

    Bonds

    • The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 3.88%

    • Japan’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 0.630%

    • Australia’s 10-year yield was unchanged at 4.01%

    Commodities

    • West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.3% to $73.75 a barrel

    • Spot gold rose 0.5% to $2,064.35 an ounce

    This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

    –With assistance from Akemi Terukina.

    Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek

    ©2023 Bloomberg L.P.

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