February’s gloominess carried over to March. The three indicies either fell or landed in flat territory Wednesday (the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 slid while the Dow squeaked out the barest gain), and the yield on the 10-year Treasury note hit 4% for the first time since November. That action indicates the pain is going to stick around a little longer. On Thursday, investors will chew over the latest weekly jobless claims data as they anticipate the Federal Reserve’s next moves in its rate-hiking battle against inflation. Fed Gov. Christopher Waller is slated to speak Thursday afternoon. Follow live markets updates.
Marc Benioff, CEO of Salesforce, at the WEF in Davos, Switzerland on May 25th, 2022.
Adam Galica | CNBC
Salesforce surprised everyone – in a good way – with its earnings report Wednesday. Shares of the enterprise software giant and Slack parent surged around 15% in off-hours trading after the company easily topped Wall Street’s expectations for revenue and profit. Activist investors have been putting the squeeze on Salesforce and its CEO, Marc Benioff, looking for fatter profits. The company recently cut 10% of its workforce, resulting in more than $800 million in restructuring costs, as part of a longer-term attempt to control spending. Benioff also said the company disbanded its board committee on mergers and acquisitions, while it works with consultancy Bain on reviewing Salesforce’s business.
Shares of Tesla fell more than 5% in off-hours trading after the electric vehicle company unveiled its latest “master plan,” which, according to CNBC’s Lora Kolodny, was light on details and specifics. CEO Elon Musk spoke in utopian terms as he kicked off the presentation. “There is a clear path to a sustainable-energy Earth. It doesn’t require destroying natural habitats,” he said. “It doesn’t require us to be austere and stop using electricity and be in the cold or anything.” In terms of nitty-gritty business, Tesla is sticking with its goal of producing 20 million EVs a year by 2030. It’s got a long way to go, though. Last year, the company said it delivered a little more than 1.3 million autos.
U.S. President Joe Biden discusses health care costs and access to affordable health care during an event in Virginia Beach, Virginia, February 28, 2023.
Leah Millis | Reuters
In the biggest sign yet that political winds are blowing against environmental, social, and corporate governance, or ESG, guidelines, the Democratic-led Senate on Wednesday voted to overturn a rule that allows retirement funds to consider such progressive standards when making investment decisions. Sen. Jon Tester, a moderate Democrat from Montana, and conservative Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia – who are up for reelection next year in their deeply Republican states – voted with Republicans to make it a 50-46 tally. However, President Joe Biden has said he would veto the measure in order to keep the rule in place. It would be the first veto of his presidency.
Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) (L), Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz
Reuters (L) | Getty Images (R)
Sen. Bernie Sanders, the democratic socialist from Vermont, is serious about hauling Howard Schultz in for questioning after the outgoing Starbucks interim CEO declined an invitation to testify before lawmakers. The progressive, pro-union senator set a vote for next Wednesday that will decide whether to subpoena Schultz to give testimony to the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions, or HELP, Committee, which Sanders chairs. Baristas at nearly 300 Starbucks stores have voted to unionize, a movement Schultz has opposed. Sanders, in turn, has accused Schultz of union busting.
– CNBC’s Samantha Subin, Jordan Novet, Lora Kolodny, Christina Wilkie and Amelia Lucas contributed to this report.
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Crypto could be in for a sideways month as inflation concerns come back into focus. Bitcoin and ether are starting the new trading month on a positive note – following a relatively flat month – each rising less than 1% Wednesday. Meanwhile, the stock market extended its slide from the previous session. Their modest February gains pale in comparison to their big January surge, but many investors still see it as a winning month. Bitcoin eked out a monthly gain of 0.8% and ether inched up 2.5%, while all of the major stock averages posted losses for February . “Bitcoin’s been the beneficiary of a flight-to-quality within crypto,” said Callie Cox, U.S. investment analyst at eToro. “If you’re a stock investor, you could see bitcoin as this growth engine without obvious cashflows. But if you’re a crypto investor that’s been crushed by a dramatic selloff in an altcoin, bitcoin could be seen as this blue-chip store of value.” “It’s all relative, but from a portfolio strategy perspective, you can’t overlook the inherent risks in crypto,” she added. “We still think bitcoin could struggle in a high-inflation, high-rate environment.” Bitcoin’s correlation with stocks has pulled back in 2023. However, Katie Stockton, a chart analyst and founder of Fairlead Strategies, told CNBC earlier this week that with equities now declining, she expects that correlation to return . Meanwhile, Rob Ginsberg, a technical analyst at Wolfe Research, noted that bitcoin and the U.S. dollar index have been moving higher together, although they typically move inversely. “It’s likely one will have to give. In the near term, our bet is on the dollar pulling back,” he said Wednesday. “It’s an interesting tape out there to say the least,” he added, noting the higher dollar and rates, deteriorating commodities and choppy equities. “Even with the recent overbought pullback, crypto continues to hang in there and consolidate.” He also said that while it “feels like the fun is over, the charts say differently.” “We’re buyers of this pullback and see it as a healthy response to their recent overbought conditions. If we’re right and more upside lies ahead in the near term, it’s tough to think crypto isn’t a major beneficiary.” What to watch Though industry developments accounted for much of the trading action in February, the Fed’s fight against inflation is still very much in focus, Kruger said. He cited inflation as well as regulation and institutional adoption – two big price drivers in February – as the key catalysts going into March. Bitcoin and ether suffered a brief drop of 6% and 8.5%, respectively, after U.S. regulators came out with a series of enforcement actions against crypto companies. Long-term investors see regulation as a positive development ultimately, but it can put pressure on prices in the near term, Kruger said. “These things do bring some uncertainty into the equation, and uncertainty quite often can be, you know, kind of negative,” he said. Cox said she has her eye on the big economic reports as well as the Fed’s next policy meeting, which begins March 21. “As we move into March, there could continue to be this push-and-pull between high rates and decent economic growth,” she said. “Investors’ main worry over the past few weeks has been the re-emergence of rising inflation, and how the Fed will respond to it. We may need to see more evidence that inflation is coming down to the Fed’s liking before we can resume the rally we saw in January.” Breaking past $25,000 Although bitcoin held up in February, investors are unsure when to expect a rocket ship rally . Stockton and Joel Kruger, market strategist at LMAX Group, both emphasized $25,000 as the level top to give more meaning to its gains. It’s currently trading at about $23,400, according to Coin Metrics. “While we poked above it on this latest run up in February, we just couldn’t establish above,” he said. “While we’re below $25,200 there still is the possibility that this market continues to pull back and consolidate and that we’re not yet ready to see that big breakout.” “Everything’s been constructive and we held up well, but we really … need to see a weekly close above that high to start to feel really encouraged about the outlook,” he added.
Here’s an update on the health care and financial holdings in Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust, the portfolio we use at the CNBC Investing Club. Jim ran through all 35 of the stocks during the Club’s inaugural Annual Meeting on Saturday, an in-person event held in New York City. A video replay of the meeting is available here . Bausch Health (BHC): Shares of the troubled pharmaceutical company have gotten off to a solid start in 2023. However, the fundamental problems that led us to assign Bausch Health our only wait-and-see 4 rating remain a concern. Legal uncertainties around the patent for its key drug, Xifaxan, in addition to BHC’s debt load, continue to be main overhangs on the stock. Those are reasons why it’s off-limits for us until we get more information. At the same time, we’d be remiss not to mention some of the reasons for the stock’s early 2023 rally, including Brent Saunders’ appointment as CEO of Bausch + Lomb (BLCO), the eye-care firm Bausch Health spun out last year. BHC still owns nearly 90% of Bausch + Lomb, with plans to further monetize that stake and use the proceeds to pay down debt. In that sense, good news at BLCO also is good news for BHC. Danaher (DHR): Danaher might be the best-run industrial company in the country. Guided by the Danaher Business System, management has a strong track record of acquiring firms and then improving their margins once they’re under the same corporate roof. We’re bullish on the life sciences and medical diagnostics company’s plans to soon separate its Environmental & Applied Solutions division into its own firm. Danaher has really leaned into the life sciences industry in recent years. At levels below $250 per share, Jim said Danaher is one of the most attractive stocks in the Club’s portfolio. He also said that in response to a member’s question that Danaher, like Apple (AAPL), is a stock that he prefers to own for the long term, rather than trade in and out of it. Humana (HUM): The health insurer has twice raised its 2023 Medicare Advantage enrollment guidance in recent months, a clear sign that management’s market-share strategy is playing out as expected. The company has really enhanced the benefits of its offering over the past year or so. While a few regulatory questions weighed on Humana and other health-insurance names to start 2023, investors have since gotten clarity on those matters. Plus, Wall Street’s rekindled inflation fears in recent weeks have made defensive-oriented stocks such as Humana seem like more attractive places to be. Humana is expected to grow earnings at a solid clip this year, and we think it still is fairly valued. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): The health-care firm’s upcoming breakup should be beneficial for both entities upon its completion. Its consumer-products unit will become a company known as Kenvue, while its faster-growing pharmaceutical and medical devices divisions will retain the J & J name. This approach should allow the respective management teams to be more focused and more efficiently allocate capital. However, there is some litigation risk with J & J after a federal judge in January rejected its strategy concerning more than 38,000 talc lawsuits. Management is committed to resolving the cases as effectively and swiftly as possible, and Jim said he believes over the long term that will happen. Against that backdrop, we view J & J as a quality defensive name to own, especially given its annual dividend yield of around 3%. Eli Lilly (LLY): The company looks like the most compelling growth story of any large-cap pharmaceutical player. Its type 2 diabetes drug Mounjaro is being studied to treat a host of other medical conditions, including obesity, where trials have shown impressive weight-loss results. We think it’s poised to become one of the best-selling drugs in history, if not the top seller, and the company is investing in expanding manufacturing capacity to meet what’s expected to be fervent demand, assuming it receives regulatory approval for obesity later this year. Lilly also is expected to release the results of its late-stage Alzheimer’s trial in the coming months. Success in that study is not central to our investment case, but the opportunity is sizable. Morgan Stanley (MS): Morgan Stanley’s fourth-quarter results demonstrated the power of the bank’s revenue diversification strategy. CEO James Gorman’s decision to lean into asset management — and the more stable fee-based earnings stream associated with it — is a key element to our investment thesis. Eventually, we think the market will come to fully recognize that Morgan Stanley is not the same old investment bank of the past and assign its stock a premium valuation. We’re not all the way there yet. But in the meantime, Morgan Stanley’s over 3% annual dividend yield and steady stock buyback program will continue to reward patient shareholders. With a competitive and proven leader like Gorman at the helm, Morgan Stanley is a stock to hold. Wells Fargo (WFC): The money-center bank is one of our largest positions in the portfolio, and its stock has recently been helped by the increase in interest rates engineered by the Fed to fight inflation. The reason higher rates enable Wells Fargo to make more money from its massive pile of customer deposits is an industry metric known as net interest income (NII). Big picture, Wells Fargo continues to be an attractive turnaround story as CEO Charlie Scharf works to overcome a series of past scandals under prior management. There are some remaining regulatory hurdles, most prominently a Fed-mandated asset cap that effectively constrains Wells Fargo’s ability to issue new loans. However, we eventually believe that will be lifted, even if the timeline is uncertain. In the meantime, Wells Fargo restarted its share repurchase program in the current quarter, and management’s disciplined expense outlook should help protect earnings. (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long BHC, DHR, JNJ, LLY, HUM, MS, WFC. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
The logo of Morgan Stanley is seen in New York
Shannon Stapleton | Reuters
Here’s an update on the health care and financial holdings in Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust, the portfolio we use at the CNBC Investing Club. Jim ran through all 35 of the stocks during the Club’s inaugural Annual Meeting on Saturday, an in-person event held in New York City. A video replay of the meetingis available here.
Andrew Sheets, chief cross-asset strategist at Morgan Stanley, discusses recent economic data out of the U.K., Europe and the U.S., and the potential risks to stock markets.
This year has, so far, been something of a Jekyll and Hyde market for equities. January’s strength was a welcome reprieve from the brutality that was 2022. February’s stumble has reminded us that sticky inflation remains a challenge for both the broader economy and stocks. With that in mind, we sifted through our portfolio to find names with a mix of durable fundamentals and stories strong enough to cut through rekindled inflation fears — and the resulting concerns that the Federal Reserve could need to maintain higher interest rates for longer. It’s a dynamic we discussed just last week, charting the ups and downs for the S & P 500 at pivotal moments in the 2023 inflation arc. The criteria for Tuesday’s screen were simple: Stocks had to outperform the market on a monthly basis in both January and February. The returns each month had to actually be positive. The S & P 500 gained nearly 6.2% in January, while losing 2.6% in February. Here are the seven Club holdings that made the cut (and two honorable mentions), arranged by year-to-date performance. Generative AI boost for Nvidia NVDA 1Y mountain Nvidia (NVDA) 1-year performance Nvidia (NVDA) was the Club’s biggest winner in January, climbing 33.7%, and in February its 18.8% monthly gain is second to only Bausch Health (BHC). In January, Nvidia certainly benefited from the broad tailwind that lifted many of 2022’s biggest losers . The stock’s exceptional performance this year goes much deeper to company-specific factors — specifically, all the buzz around generative artificial intelligence (AI). Nvidia’s semiconductors and related software are integral to the budding generative AI field, which generally refers to a type of artificial intelligence that can create text, images and code in response to user queries. Optimism around generative AI began late last year, with the release of ChatGPT, and it’s picked up steam well into 2023. “AI adoption is at an inflection point,” Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said on the chipmaker’s earnings conference call last week. During that call, Nvidia also indicated a recovery in data center and gaming chips is taking place sooner than many expected, which has only added fuel to investor optimism and contributed to a wave of analyst price-target boosts the following day . Despite this year’s surge, Nvidia shares were still about 18.5% lower than their 52-week high of $289 each back in March. It’s worth noting that fellow Club holding Microsoft (MSFT) has been a huge beneficiary of the AI tailwind this year. The tech giant is a large investor in OpenAI, the startup behind ChatGPT, and the two entities maintain a very close partnership. Microsoft also has made a series of AI-related announcements so far this year, including a revamped version of its search engine, Bing, geared around generative AI. If not for a rough three-day stretch to begin 2023, Microsoft shares likely would’ve made it onto this list of stocks. Ultimately, the stock underperformed the market in January with a gain of 3.3%, disqualifying it. But the stock did beat the market in February, with a nearly 0.7% advance. Bausch bounces, but questions remain BHC 1Y mountain Bausch Health (BHC) 1-year performance Bausch Health (BHC) has had an incredible start to the year, climbing roughly 21% in both January and February. Thanks to a solid earnings report last week, it has managed to hold onto that strong performance. Some of that January move was no doubt attributable to the broader market action, as headwinds certainly remain for Bausch due to its ongoing Xifaxan patent battle. The market was also pleased to see that Brent Saunders is taking the helm at Bausch + Lomb (BLCO). Since Bausch Health still owns over 85% of Bausch + Lomb, what’s good for the latter is good for the former. However, the Xifaxan dispute remains a major overhang on the stock, taming our excitement over its performance so far this year. BHC was still about 62% lower than its 52-week high of just over $24 per share exactly one year ago. Efficiency commitment lifts Meta META 1Y mountain Meta Platform (META) 1-year performance Meta Platforms (META) has really turned it around, gaining roughly 24% in January and over 17% in February. This is one of the best examples in the market of how important it is to acknowledge the operating environment and act accordingly. Last year was brutal for the stock, with management seemingly intent on investing in the metaverse at all costs and planning to grow expenses despite revenues coming under pressure. But it’s a whole new world in 2023. CEO Mark Zuckerberg has completely changed his tune, telling investors on the company’s most recent post-earnings conference call that the focus now is efficiency, efficiency, efficiency . The team has also stressed the important role of artificial intelligence. Investments in AI technology will likely help Meta become more efficient, aid in monetizing previously unmonetized platforms such as WhatsApp and Messenger, all while fending off Chinese competitor TikTok. Meta made this list largely due to a post-earnings surge, but we think the consolidation seen the rest of the month is healthy in the long term. After being crushed last year, shares were recovering but still 26% lower than their 52-week high of nearly $237 each back in April. Palo Alto pivot to profitability PANW 1Y mountain Palo Alto Networks (PANW) 1-year performance Palo Alto Networks (PANW) advanced nearly 14% in January before climbing nearly 19% in February, aided by a very strong quarterly report that demonstrated our investment thesis in the newest Club holding. We started our PANW position in mid-February, adding to it once since then for a nearly 8.5% paper profit so far. The stock was still more than 11% below its 52-week high of $213 per share back in April. As a cybersecurity provider, Palo Alto Networks benefits from being among the highest priorities in corporate IT budgets. Given the company’s strong free cash flow and pivot to profitability , a move that has now resulted in three consecutive quarters of generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) profitability, we think shares have further room to the upside despite their year-to-date strength. Wynn benefits from China reopening WYNN 1Y mountain Wynn Resorts (WYNN) 1-year performance Wynn Resorts (WYNN) stock has climbed more than 4.5% in February, following a robust 25.7% gain in January. Shares have more than doubled since their 52-week low of around $50 each back in June. There are a few reasons for the stock’s resilience, including continued optimism around a recovery of the casino operator’s business in Macao, a Chinese special administrative region where gambling is legal and a big business. Wynn’s crucial Macao properties stand to benefit in the quarters ahead after China late last year dropped its draconian zero-Covid policy. Wynn’s U.S. operations — in Las Vegas and Boston — have been impressive, too, a clear sign the company is benefiting from consumers’ desire to keep spending on experiences despite inflationary pressures. AMD sees inventory corrections near bottom AMD 1Y mountain Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) 1-year performance After climbing 16% in January, shares of Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) gained 4.6% through February. As with Nvidia, AMD’s January performance was partially aided by the general rotation back into 2022 clunkers. The stock, however, was still about 37% lower than its 52-week high of $125 per share back in March. Recent optimism around artificial intelligence is spilling over into AMD, too. While Nvidia is seen as the best-of-breed AI chipmaker, the tech trend is a clear growth opportunity for AMD, a point CEO Lisa Su made on the firm’s fourth-quarter earnings call in January . AMD also is a cheaper option for investors who want a semiconductor stock poised to benefit from AI, trading at 23.7-times forward earnings, compared with Nvidia’s 52.2 forward multiple, according to FactSet. Some of the inventory corrections that plagued AMD last year — particularly on the PC side — appear to be nearing a bottom, as well. That’s helped improve sentiment. Nvidia’s recent comments on the data center and gaming turnaround it’s seeing may also support optimism around AMD. Apple grabs smartphone market share AAPL 1Y mountain Apple (APPL) one-year performance. Apple (AAPL) gained just over 11% in January and more than 2.5% in February, reinforcing the Club mantra: Own it, don’t trade. The gains come as the iPhone maker is capturing a greater portion of the global smartphone market, particularly when it comes to high-end models. Gen-Z buyers “increasingly see the iPhone as a must-have,” The Wall Street Journal reported Monday. And the iPhone’s growing popularity with Gen Z shows that Apple is continuing to brandish its image as a status symbol with the next generation of consumers. It also demonstrates how Apple is growing its installed base of users, which should allow the company to ultimately expand its high-margin services revenue. Those developments, combined with the company’s continued commitment to shareholder returns, make Apple a name to hold for the long term. Honorable Mentions We also want to call out two honorable mentions: Morgan Stanley (MS) and Wells Fargo (WFC). Both financial firms outperformed the S & P 500 in January and February. However, they failed the screen due to negative absolute returns in February, despite their outperformance versus the broader market. Wells Fargo lost 0.2% in February, while Morgan Stanley fell 0.9%. Both banks benefit from higher interest rates and an economy that so far has refused to be held down, something of a goldilocks scenario for a business that makes money on the spread between rates and thrives on economic activity. Wells Faro and Morgan Stanley also have significant share repurchase authorizations, which is good news for shareholders . WFC MS 1Y mountain Wells Fargo (WFC) vs. Morgan Stanley (MS) 1-year performance Morgan Stanley is benefiting from an increase in fee-based revenues, part of its multiyear shift toward asset management to smooth out the cyclical fluctuations of its traditional investment banking franchise. Wells Fargo, meanwhile, is seeing great benefits from the interest rate spread between what it charges for loans and pays out on deposits. Wells Fargo also is a turnaround story, working diligently to achieve regulatory milestones that will let it free up additional capital for investments and shareholder returns. Bottom line Wall Street hit a rough patch in February, but that didn’t prevent certain Club stocks from breaking through. Of the names mentioned above, Palo Alto, Apple and Wells Fargo are 1-rated stocks , indicating our view that they can be bought here and now. With the exception of Bausch Health, which we think has to be avoided until more is known about the Xifaxan patent litigation, we are actively looking to buy the remaining stocks on this list on pullbacks, as signified by our 2 rating. We believe they’re best-in-class businesses led by top-tier management teams with further long-term upside. (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
Jensen Huang, president and CEO of Nvidia, speaks during the company’s event at the 2019 Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas on Jan. 6, 2019.
David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images
This year has, so far, been something of a Jekyll and Hyde market for equities.
January’s strength was a welcome reprieve from the brutality that was 2022. February’s stumble has reminded us that sticky inflation remains a challenge for both the broader economy and stocks.
Virtus Investment Partners’ Joe Terranova and SoFi’s Liz Young join ‘Closing Bell’ to discuss Goldman Sach shares dropping following its investor day, resilience in the trading market and competition among banks and financials.
Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo senior banking analyst, joins the ‘Halftime Report’ to discuss Goldman’s financial target plan, the company’s highly successful legacy business and lack of resolution about Goldman’s consumer banking business.
Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon said Tuesday that asset management and wealth management would be the growth engine for the bank after his efforts in consumer finance went awry.
“The real story of opportunity for growth for us in the coming years is around asset management and wealth management,” Solomon told CNBC’s Andrew Ross Sorkin. Solomon added that Goldman was already the fifth biggest active asset manager in the world.
“There’s real opportunity across the firm for us to continue to make the firm more durable,” Solomon said.
He also acknowledged that the company didn’t “execute well” on parts of his consumer push, but added that management would reflect and learn from the episode.
Goldman was scheduled to hold its second-ever investor day later Tuesday. The firm released a slideshow for the event online, in which it gave updated targets for growth in its asset and wealth management division and a 2025 breakeven target for its money-losing platform solutions division.
It also reiterated its target for 15% to 17% return on tangible equity, a key metric tracked by bank investors.
This story is developing. Please check back for updates.
These days, tuition accounts for about half of public college revenue, while state and local governments provide the other half. But a few decades ago, the split was much different, with tuition providing just about a quarter of revenue and state and local governments picking up the rest.
Over the 30 years between 1991-92 and 2021-22, average tuition prices more than doubled, increasing to $10,740 from $4,160 at public four-year colleges, and to $38,070 from $19,360 at private institutions, after adjusting for inflation, according to the College Board.
Wages haven’t kept up.
“Household income has been stagnant,” higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz told CNBC previously.
Because so few families could shoulder the rising cost of college, they increasingly turned to federal and private aid to help foot the bills.
The shift to “high-tuition, high-aid” caused a “massive total volume of debt,” according to Emily Cook, an assistant professor of economics at Tulane University.
“The federal government should get out of the student loan business,” Diana Furchtgott-Roth, an economics professor at George Washington University and former chief economist at the U.S. Department of Labor, told CNBC.
With nearly no limit on the amount students can borrow to help cover the rising cost of college, “there is an incentive to drive up tuition,” she said.
Now, “schools can charge as much as they want,” Furchtgott-Roth added.
Once families hit their federal student loan limits, they turn to parent student loans and private financing to be able to send their children off to college, an increasingly necessary step for people to have a decent shot at landing in the middle class.
More and more students feel they need to go to graduate school to be competitive in the job market. And more time in school means more costs, and a greater need for borrowing. Around 40% of outstanding federal student loan debt is now taken on post-college for master’s and PhD programs.
The average student debt balance among parents was more than $35,000 in 2018-19, up from around $5,000 in the early 1990s.
Meanwhile, the private student loan market has grown more than 70% over the last decade, according to the Student Borrower Protection Center. Americans now owe more in private student loans than they do for past-due medical debt or payday loans.
Every year millions of new students are pumped into the student loan system while current borrowers struggle to exit it.
Many recent college graduates can’t afford the standard 10-year repayment timeline, according to Kantrowitz.
“Generally, people choose the repayment plan with the lowest monthly payment, which is also the plan with the longest term,” he said.
As a result, it takes people 17 years on average to pay off their education debt, data by the U.S. Department of Education shows.
Many borrowers put their loans on hold through forbearances, which cause their debt balances to mushroom with interest, and widespread failures in the government’s forgiveness programs have left those who expected to have their debt written off after a certain period still shouldering it.
The average loan balance at graduation has tripled since the 90s, to $30,000 from $10,000. Around 7% of student loan borrowers are now more than $100,000 in debt.
Without any intervention, over the next two decades, Kantrowitz estimates outstanding student loan debt could hit $3 trillion.
“Given how linear the growth in student debt is, it makes these events easy to predict,” he said.
The logo of Credit Suisse Group in Davos, Switzerland, on Monday, Jan. 16, 2023.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Credit Suisse “seriously breached its supervisory obligations” in the context of its business relationship with financier Lex Greensill and his companies, Swiss regulator FINMA concluded Tuesday.
“In its proceedings, FINMA concluded that Credit Suisse Group seriously breached its supervisory duty to adequately identify, limit and monitor risks in the context of the business relationship with Lex Greensill over a period of years,” the regulator said, adding that it also found “serious deficiencies in the bank’s organisational structures” during the period under investigation.
“Furthermore, it did not sufficiently fulfil its supervisory duties as an asset manager. FINMA thus concludes that there has been a serious breach of Swiss supervisory law.”
Credit Suisse CEO Ulrich Körner welcomed the conclusion of the FINMA investigation in a statement Tuesday.
“This marks an important step towards the final resolution of the SCFF issue. FINMA’s review has reinforced many of the findings of the Board-initiated independent review and underlines the importance of the actions we have taken in recent years to strengthen our Risk and Compliance culture. We also continue to focus on maximizing recovery for fund investors,” he said.
In March 2021, Credit Suisse closed four supply chain finance funds at short notice related to Greensill companies. The funds were distributed to qualified investors with client documentation indicating low risk, and client exposure sat at around $10 billion at the time of the closure.
Credit Suisse highlighted that, since March 2021, it has undergone senior management changes, implemented disciplinary measures and a new global accountability model, increased governance oversight and strengthened controls by moving risk oversight into a dedicated divisional risk management function.
FINMA announced Tuesday that it has ordered remedial measures and opened four enforcement proceedings against former Credit Suisse managers.
“In future, the bank will have to periodically review at executive board level the most important business relationships (around 500) in particular for counterparty risks,” the regulator said.
“In addition, the bank is required to record the responsibilities of its approximately 600 highest-ranking employees in a responsibility document.”
Credit Suisse noted that all of the requirements identified by the regulator “are being addressed through the organizational measures already underway.”
“FINMA has not ordered any confiscation of profits in connection with the proceedings and the implementation of the additional measures is not expected to result in significant costs for Credit Suisse,” the bank added.
David Solomon, chief executive officer of Goldman Sachs Group Inc., during an event on the sidelines on day three of the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland, on Thursday, Jan. 19, 2023.
Stefan Wermuth | Bloomberg | Getty Images
When David Solomon was chosen to succeed Lloyd Blankfein as Goldman Sachs CEO in early 2018, a spasm of fear ran through the bankers working on a modest enterprise known as Marcus.
The man who lost out to Solomon, Harvey Schwartz, was one of several original backers of the firm’s foray into consumer banking and was often seen pacing the floor in Goldman’s New York headquarters where it was being built. Would Solomon kill the nascent project?
The executives were elated when Solomon soon embraced the business.
Their relief was short-lived, however. That’s because many of the decisions Solomon made over the next four years — along with aspects of the firm’s hard-charging, ego-driven culture — ultimately led to the collapse of Goldman’s consumer ambitions, according to a dozen people with knowledge of the matter.
The idea behind Marcus — the transformation of a Wall Street powerhouse into a Main Street player that could take on giants such as Jamie Dimon’s JPMorgan Chase — captivated the financial world from the start. Within three years of its 2016 launch, Marcus — a nod to the first name of Goldman’s founder — attracted $50 billion in valuable deposits, had a growing lending business and had emerged victorious from intense competition among banks to issue a credit card to Apple’s many iPhone users.
But as Marcus morphed from a side project to a focal point for investors hungry for a growth story, the business rapidly expanded and ultimately buckled under the weight of Solomon’s ambitions. Late last year, Solomon capitulated to demands to rein in the business, splitting it apart in a reorganization, killing its inaugural loan product and shelving an expensive checking account.
The episode comes at a sensitive time for Solomon. More than four years into his tenure, the CEO faces pressure from an unlikely source — disaffected partners of his own company, whose leaks to the press in the past year accelerated the bank’s strategy pivot and revealed simmering disdain for his high-profile DJ hobby.
Goldman shares have outperformed bank stock indexes during Solomon’s tenure, helped by the strong performance of its core trading and investment banking operations. But investors aren’t rewarding Solomon with a higher multiple on his earnings, while nemesis Morgan Stanley has opened up a wider lead in recent years, with a price to tangible book value ratio roughly double that of Goldman.
That adds to the stakes for Solomon’s second-ever investor day conference Tuesday, during which the CEO will provide details on his latest plan to build durable sources of revenue growth. Investors want an explanation of what went wrong at Marcus, which was touted at Goldman’s previous investor day in 2020, and evidence that management has learned lessons from the costly episode.
“We’ve made a lot of progress, been flexible when needed, and we’re looking forward to updating our investors on that progress and the path ahead,” Goldman communications chief Tony Fratto said in a statement. “It’s clear that many innovations since our last investor day are paying off across our businesses and generating returns for shareholders.”
The architects of Marcus couldn’t have predicted its journey when the idea was birthed offsite in 2014 at the vacation home of then-Goldman president Gary Cohn. While Goldman is a leader in advising corporations, heads of state and the ultrawealthy, it didn’t have a presence in retail banking.
They gave it a distinct brand, in part to distance it from negative perceptions of Goldman after the 2008 crisis, but also because it would allow them to spin off the business as a standalone fintech player if they wanted to, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
“Like a lot of things that Goldman starts, it began not as some grand vision, but more like, ‘Here’s a way we can make some money,’” one of the people said.
Ironically, Cohn himself was against the retail push and told the bank’s board that he didn’t think it would succeed, according to people with knowledge of the matter. In that way, Cohn, who left in 2017 to join the Trump administration, was emblematic of many of the company’s old guard who believed that consumer finance simply wasn’t in Goldman’s DNA.
Once Solomon took over, in 2018, he began a series of corporate reorganizations that would influence the path of the embryonic business.
From its early days, Marcus, run by ex-Discover executive Harit Talwar and Goldman veteran Omer Ismail, had been purposefully sheltered from the rest of the company. Talwar was fond of telling reporters that Marcus had the advantages of being a nimble startup within a 150-year-old investment bank.
The first of Solomon’s reorganizations came early in his tenure, when he folded it into the firm’s investment management division. Ismail and others had argued against the move to Solomon, feeling that it would hinder the business.
Solomon’s rationale was that all of Goldman’s businesses catering to individuals should be in the same division, even if most Marcus customers had only a few thousand dollars in loans or savings, while the average private wealth client had $50 million in investments.
In the process, the Marcus leaders lost some of their ability to call their own shots on engineering, marketing and personnel matters, in part because of senior hires made by Solomon. Marcus engineering resources were pulled in different directions, including into a project to consolidate its technology stack with that of the broader firm, a step that Ismail and Talwar disagreed with.
“Marcus became a shiny object,” said one source. “At Goldman, everyone wants to leave their mark on the new shiny thing.”
Besides the deposits business, which has attracted $100 billion so far and essentially prints money for the company, the biggest consumer success has been its rollout of the Apple Card.
What is less well-known is that Goldman won the Apple account in part because it agreed to terms that other, established card issuers wouldn’t. After a veteran of the credit-card industry named Scott Young joined Goldman in 2017, he was flabbergasted at one-sided elements of the Apple deal, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
“Who the f— agreed to this?” Young exclaimed in a meeting shortly after learning of the details of the deal, according to a person present.
Some of the customer servicing aspects of the deal ultimately added to Goldman’s unexpectedly high costs for the Apple partnership, the people said. Goldman executives were eager to seal the deal with the tech giant, which happened before Solomon became CEO, they added.
Young declined to comment about the outburst.
The rapid growth of the card, which was launched in 2019, is one reason the consumer division saw mounting financial losses. Heading into an economic downturn, Goldman had to set aside reserves for future losses, even if they don’t happen. The card ramp-up also brought regulatory scrutiny on the way it dealt with customer chargebacks, CNBC reported last year.
Beneath the smooth veneer of the bank’s fintech products, which were gaining traction at the time, there were growing tensions: disagreements with Solomon over products, acquisitions and branding, said the people, who declined to be identified speaking about internal Goldman matters.
Ismail, who was well-regarded internally and had the ability to push back against Solomon, lost some battles and held the line on others. For instance, Marcus officials had to entertain potential sponsorships with Rihanna, Reese Witherspoon and other celebrities, as well as study whether the Goldman brand should replace that of Marcus.
The CEO was said to be enamored of the rise of fast-growing digital players such as Chime and believed that Goldman needed to offer a checking account, while Marcus leaders didn’t think the bank had advantages there and should continue as a more focused player.
One of the final straws for Ismail came when Solomon, in his second reorganization, made his strategy chief, Stephanie Cohen, co-head of the consumer and wealth division in September 2020. Cohen, who is known as a tireless executive, would be even more hands-on than her predecessor, Eric Lane, and Ismail felt that he deserved the promotion.
Within months, Ismail left Goldman, sending shock waves through the consumer division and deeply angering Solomon. Ismail and Talwar declined to comment for this article.
Ismail’s exit ushered in a new, ultimately disastrous era for Marcus, a dysfunctional period that included a steep ramp-up in hiring and expenses, blown product deadlines and waves of talent departures.
Now run by two former tech executives with scant retail experience, ex-Uber executive Peeyush Nahar and Swati Bhatia, formerly of payments giant Stripe, Marcus was, ironically, also cursed by Goldman’s success on Wall Street in 2021.
The pandemic-fueled boom in public listings, mergers and other deals meant that Goldman was en route to a banner year for investment banking, its most profitable ever. Goldman should plow some of those volatile earnings into more durable consumer banking revenues, the thinking went.
“People at the firm including David Solomon were like, ‘Go, go, go!’” said a person with knowledge of the period. “We have all these excess profits, you go create recurring revenues.”
In April 2022, the bank widened testing of its checking account to employees, telling staff that it was “only the beginning of what we hope will soon become the primary checking account for tens of millions of customers.”
But as 2022 ground on, it became clear that Goldman was facing a very different environment. The Federal Reserve ended a decade-plus era of cheap money by raising interest rates, casting a pall over capital markets. Among the six biggest American banks, Goldman Sachs was most hurt by the declines, and suddenly Solomon was pushing to cut expenses at Marcus and elsewhere.
Amid leaks that Marcus was hemorrhaging money, Solomon finally decided to pull back sharply on the effort that he had once championed to investors and the media. His checking account would be repurposed for wealth management clients, which would save money on marketing costs.
Now it is Ismail, who joined a Walmart-backed fintech called One in early 2021, who will be taking on the banking world with a direct-to-consumer digital startup. His former employer Goldman would largely content itself with being a behind-the-scenes player, providing its technology and balance sheet to established brands.
For a company with as much self-regard as Goldman, it would mark a sharp comedown from the vision held by Solomon only months earlier.
“David would say, ‘We’re building the business for the next 50 years, not for today,’” said one former Goldman insider. “He should’ve listened to his own sound bite.”
Despite last week’s market tumble, there are some stocks that are in overbought territory. The S & P 500 tumbled 2.7% for the week , its biggest weekly decline since December. Concerns over persistent inflation and the prospects of higher rates for longer dented investor sentiment. The core personal consumption expenditures index — the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure — rose more than expected in January . The data sparked a broad market sell-off, with the S & P 500 losing 1%. .SPX 5D mountain Tough week for stocks Still, investors should consider easing exposure to names that are still overbought. They can gauge this with the relative strength index, which measures a stock’s momentum. A stock is considered overbought if its 14-day RSI goes above 70. This indicates that it may be overextended after a strong run. Meanwhile, a stock with a 14-day RSI under 30 is considered oversold, meaning it may want more to that name. CNBC Pro screened for S & P 500 stocks in overbought territory, using the relative strength index. Here are the top 10. Insurance company Arch Capital topped the list, with an RSI of 87.7. The stock bucked the broader market negative trend’s last week, advancing 2%. Year to date, Arch Capital is up 10%. The stock is well liked by analysts, with nearly 80% rating it a buy. PepsiCo also made the list. Its 14-day RSI came in at 70.7. The stock was a relative outperformer last week, losing just 0.2%. Still, only one-third of analysts covering the snack and beverage giant rate it a buy. Defense contractors Northrop Grumman and Lockheed Martin also made the list. Northrop’s RSI came in at 72.7, while Lockheed’s was 70.6. CNBC Pro also screened for S & P 500 stocks in oversold territory. Here are the top 10. Topping the oversold list is First Republic , with an RSI of just 10.3. The stock is well liked by analysts, receiving buy ratings from 52% of those covering it, and the average price target implies upside of 19% over the next 12 months. To be sure, First Republic shares are down 1.2% year to date, lagging SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) — which is up 5% in 2023. Lumen Technologies also made the cut, with an RSI of 13.13. To be sure, the stock is not liked by analysts with just 14% of them rating Lumen as a buy. Earlier this month, Lumen issued weaker-than-expected adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2023. Its full-year outlook for free cash flow was also well below expectations. Other stocks that made the list include Alaska Air , Abbott Laboratories and Weyerhaeuser .
A renovated apartment in New York City after The Expert consultation sessions with designers Jessica Gersten and Athena Calderone.
The Expert
Aside from bingeing Netflix, creating the picture-perfect home may have been the pandemic’s most popular habit.
Whether it’s organizing a pantry or adding on a home office, gym or spa-like bathroom, homeowners have been upgrading and expanding their spaces at record rates for over two years.
Although Americans are no longer sheltering at home, the recent rise in mortgages rates has encouraged more people to stay put and renovate rather than relocate.
Even in the face of inflation, ongoing supply chain issues and other factors, the vast majority of homeowners are proceedingwith their planned home improvement projects in 2023, according to a Houzz survey of nearly 4,000 homeowners conducted in October.
At the same time, Instagram and other social media platforms have raised the bar by presenting an endless array of covetable spaces.
For most people, decorating is a daunting task, yet hiring a pro is out of reach.
Few Americans can afford the high-end look depicted online, which often comes with the help of an A-list designer and hefty budget. The average cost to hire an interior designer can vary greatly depending on the region and scope and whether it’s based on a flat rate, hourly fee or percentage of the project, although well-known designers easily charge in the five or six figures.
“It’s a time-consuming and overwhelming process for a lot of homeowners,” said Wayne Gao, co-founder and CEO of Australia-based Furnishd, which offers virtual consultations for $850 per room or $3,250 for the whole house. “It also costs a fortune.”
That’s where virtual services can add value at a fraction of the cost, added Leo Seigal, co-founder and CEO of The Expert. “It’s almost like insurance to make sure you are making the right decision.”
The Expert was started by Seigal and Los Angeles-based interior designer Jake Arnold in early 2021. The service offers one-on-one consultations with over 150 big-name decorators including Arnold, Martin Brudnizki, Brigette Romanek, Ashe Leandro and Rita Konig. Prices range from $250 for a 25-minute call to up $2,000 for an hour.
Of course, online design help is not new. Even before 2020, there were services like Havenly and Homepolish. Retailers such as West Elm and Restoration Hardware offer those services, as well. However, now A-list decorators are getting into the game.
“The pandemic turbocharged interior design and created the environment to get the designers to do this in the first place,” Seigal said.
Americans are also prepared to shell out more based on what they see on sites like TikTok, Instagram and Facebook. Consumers are now conditioned “to believe they can get whatever they want, whenever they want,” according to an analysis by McKinsey & Company.
However, home upgrades are another level of spending altogether.
“Any renovation has the potential to get really expensive,” Seigal said. “You can’t really afford to make a mistake.”
For consumers who want help but may not have the means or access to a full-service design firm, “we are bridging the gap,” he said.
The pandemic turbocharged interior design and created the environment to get the designers to do this.
Leo Seigal
co-founder and CEO of The Expert
Other top designers, too, have spun off their own virtual consulting service to meet the demand for a less expensive and more accessible option.
Marianne Brown, the principal designer and owner of W Design Collective, also now offers virtual design help starting at $500 for a one-hour call, in addition to the high-end remodels and full-service projects she’s known for, which cost substantially more.
“I couldn’t even afford myself,” she said, referring to the latter.
More recently, however, Brown said she’s wrestled with the effect that the constant stream of home upgrades on social media has on homeowners and women, in particular.
“At least when Vogue tells you your skinny jeans are ‘out’ you are only donating a $50 pair of jeans to Goodwill,” she said. “But when Architectural Digest tells you white kitchens are ‘out,’ you are hiring a painter for $8,000 to repaint your kitchen cabinets.”
Brown advises homeowners to resist the urge to keep up with the Joneses. Rather, she says consider how you will use the space and make sure it reflects your personality. “What have I always loved? Where do I come from and where have I traveled? Stay true to who you are.”
Jim Cramer suggested Saturday that plans for a leadership change at Club holding Salesforce (CRM) — helmed by co-founder Marc Benioff for more than two decades — may be disclosed in the near future. “There will be a good chance that Marc will [soon] announce a successor or Marc will announce that he will [only] be chairman,” Jim said Saturday during the Club’s first-ever “Annual Meeting” in New York City before a live audience. Benioff, an influential Silicon Valley entrepreneur and philanthropist, is currently chairman and CEO. Such a development would come after five activist investors — including the venerable hedge fund Elliott Management — have recently built stakes in the enterprise software maker, which is set to report fourth-quarter earnings after the closing bell Wednesday. Activist investors take positions in companies and push for changes to address what they perceive as problems, in hopes that fixing them will boost shareholder value. It’s a bit unusual to see five activists targeting the same company . But the pressure has been mounting since October, when Jeff Smith’s Starboard Value announced a position in Salesforce, lamenting what they felt has been a “subpar mix of growth and profitability” at the company in recent years. CRM YTD mountain Salesforce (CRM) YTD performance In early January, Salesforce announced a cost-cutting plan that included layoffs and office space reductions — moves that Jim has said were pushed for by Starboard . The extent of the activist involvement became clear not long after. It’s now known that Elliott Management, ValueAct, Jeff Ubben’s Inclusive Capital and Dan Loeb’s Third Point also built positions in Salesforce. ValueAct CEO Mason Morfit was named to Salesforce’s board of directors in late January, along with former Carnival cruise line CEO Arnold Donald and Mastercard finance chief Sachin Mehra. Despite that shakeup, Paul Singer’s Elliott was reportedly planning to nominate its own candidates for Salesforce’s board. CNBC’s David Faber reported last week that Elliott and Salesforce were in talks to avoid a proxy fight It’s not unusual for tech founders to eventually step aside as the company matures, and questions around succession at Salesforce have swirled for years. While Benioff has said he’s “never leaving” Salesforce , the company has twice elevated an executive to the role of co-CEO. First, it was Keith Block, who held the role from August 2018 to February 2020. More recently, Bret Taylor served as co-CEO from November 2021 to Jan. 31 of this year. Salesforce did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment on Jim’s remarks Saturday. Bottom line It’s no secret Jim has been a fan of Benioff and a Salesforce shareholder for the Club for a long time. Jim readily admits that he counts Marc as a friend. But he stressed on the stage, “I know it’s not about friends. It’s about money,” underscoring his allegiance is always to make money for Club members. Jim said he wishes that the activists would leave Benioff alone. “I have counseled the activist that the one thing you don’t do is make it so he [Benioff] gets up that morning and says, ‘I don’t want anything to do with this,’” Jim warned. When it comes down to it, Jim said Salesforce has a great product, but acknowledged it’s a tough environment right now for enterprise software. But he said Benioff has made investors a lot of money over the years, and the activists should let Benioff do what he wants to do. (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long CRM. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
Marc Benioff, founder, chairman and CEO of enterprise cloud computing company Salesforce.
Kim Kulish | Corbis News | Getty Images
Jim Cramer suggested Saturday that plans for a leadership change at Club holding Salesforce (CRM) — helmed by co-founder Marc Benioff for more than two decades — may be disclosed in the near future.
CNBC’s ‘Halftime Report’ investment committee, Brenda Vingiello, Jason Snipe, Jim Lebenthal and Steve Weiss, discuss the financials trade and whether now might be a good time to get in.
Mark Smith, Wells Fargo Advisors SVP, and Jason Trennert, Strategas chairman, joins ‘The Exchange’ to discuss JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon’s comments earlier today about a recession and the markets overall.
Credit card providers are benefitting from post-pandemic travel and increasing card usage in general, with balances way up in recent months.
Valentinrussanov | E+ | Getty Images
Financial stocks were so out of favor for most of 2022 that perhaps their tickers should have been appended with a Nathaniel Hawthorne-esque “U” — for “unloved.” Yet after some decent gains so far this year, the sector could draw suitors aplenty as 2023 progresses.
The present allure of financial stocks, stemming from low valuations and high levels of capital, is especially strong as higher interest rates are making lending money more profitable.
As of mid-February, the Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF had recovered about half its 2022 losses. Amid this comeback, robust earnings have kept the sector’s price-earnings ratios low, as reflected by XLF’s P/E of 14.5 in mid-February.
Despite gains this year, share prices of this sector are still quite low, considering good earnings and a long history of corporate performance.
One reason for the low prices is fear of recession. But even if the most widely anticipated recession ever actually becomes reality, assuming that the short-and-shallow camp turns out to be right, financial sector earnings could easily prove more resilient than normally expected in a downturn.
Also tamping down prices is long-term market perception, said Christopher Davis, portfolio manager and chairman of Davis Advisors in New York. Several months ago, he made the case that financials tend to be mispriced because they’re “widely misunderstood,” adding the sector was (and still is, in my opinion) “primed for long-term revaluation.”
Revaluation could be in the offing, as indicated by shifts in the sector’s technical indicators, especially those for diversified financial companies and insurance companies, following growth in the latter this year. As of late February, Invesco KBW Property & Casualty Insurance ETF was up more than 14% over the preceding six months. After taking big hits from Hurricane Ian last year, insurance companies are getting more respect from analysts now that they are on firmer footing in fairer weather.
Regional banks, which took a close haircut early last year after hitting a five-year peak in January, are also recovering. The bellwether ETF for this group, SPDR Regional Banking, was up nearly 9% year to date as of mid-February. Many regional banks have recently been buying back shares to support a floor on prices and give shareholders more total return without getting locked into dividend increases.
Meanwhile, credit card providers are benefitting from post-pandemic travel and increasing card usage in general, with balances way up in recent months. Also positive are prospects for exchanges and data providers, a sector category whose earnings in recent years have grown twice as fast as those of the S&P 500.
Here are some attractive financial stocks with strong growth prospects and fundamental metrics signaling low downside risk:
Truist Financial: Formed in 2019 by a merger of equals — regional banks BB&T Corp. and SunTrust — Truist is now the nation’s seventh-largest bank, with a capitalized ratio nearly twice what’s required by regulators. Truist’s dividend has more than doubled in the last 10 years. Post-merger kinks typically dampen companies’ share price growth, so Truist’s recent underperformance relative to KRE was expected. And Truist’s growth could exceed peers’ because it operates in rapidly growing regions — primarily, the mid-Atlantic and Southeast.
East West Bancorp: This is a fast-growing, full-service commercial bank with locations in the U.S., serving the Asian-American community, and in China. Shares were up nearly 19% year to date as of mid-February. This growth is expected to accelerate from China’s reopening from Covid lockdowns. CFRA has this bank as a strong buy, forecasting 2023 growth of 17% to 19%, in part because net interest income currently makes up 89% of its revenue, versus 73% for peers. Also, the bank has “no exposure to mortgage banking or capital markets, which have been severely impacted by rising rates and economic uncertainty,” CFRA states, citing balance sheet momentum, a discounted valuation and the advantage of a Chinese population in the U.S. that’s growing faster than the whole.
FactSet Research Systems: FactSet is the star of the sector’s data-provider segment. It’s an interesting, attractive play with recurring revenues of 98%, largely because financial firm customers rely so heavily on FDS’s data. You can see it cited on brokerage platforms and analyst reports. FDS’s software, data and analytics supports the workflow of both buy-side and sell-side clients. Customers include asset managers, bankers, wealth managers, asset owners, hedge funds, corporate users, and private equity and venture capital professionals. The company has an excellent track record of maneuvering through tough economic times, evidenced by its top-line sales growth for 42 consecutive years and annual dividend raises for the last 23 years. The difficulties of changing data providers amount to an economic moat that’s daunting to competitors.
American Express: This is the right business at the right time, with business travel improving, China reopening and consumer spending among the affluent strong. Revenue growth went from a 10-year stretch of 2% annually to 25% in 2022, with 17% growth forecast for this year. Connecting better with millennials and Generation Z customers than its peers, American Express is acquiring new cardholders at an increasing rate. Analysts expect earnings to rocket up 30% over the next two years, while those of competitors appear likely to shrink. And because of well-heeled customers, this company has less credit risk than its peers.
Chubb: Chubb is the world’s largest publicly traded property and casualty insurer, operating in 54 countries but with 60% of its revenue from North America. CB has a market-leading position in industrial, commercial and mid-market traditional and specialty property-casualty coverage. It is also a leader in high net worth personal-insurance coverage, a category unlikely to feel pain from an economic downturn. Chubb has high-quality underwriting, but shares are trading at a discount to peers with lower-quality underwriting. Higher premiums, a 98.4% customer-retention rate and higher interest rates should all contribute to strong earnings growth, and shares are widely viewed as significantly undervalued.
The current, higher rates aren’t going down anytime soon. This sector is currently positioned for sustained earnings strength and likely price growth throughout this year and into 2024.
— By Dave Sheaff Gilreath, CFP, partner and chief investment officer of Sheaff Brock Investment Advisors LLC and Innovative Portfolios LLC.
Wells Fargo laid off hundreds of mortgage bankers this week as part of a sweeping round of cuts triggered by the bank’s recent strategic shift, CNBC has learned.
The layoffs were announced Tuesday and ensnared some top producers, including a few bankers who surpassed $100 million in loan volumes last year and who recently attended an internal sales conference for high achievers, according to people with knowledge of the situation.
Under CEO Charlie Scharf, Wells Fargo is pulling back from parts of the U.S. mortgage market, an arena it once dominated. Instead of seeking to maximize its share of American home loans, the bank is focusing mostly on serving existing customers and minority communities. The shift comes after sharply higher interest rates led to a collapse in loan volumes, forcing Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Chase and other firms to cut thousands of mortgage positions in the past year.
Those cut this week at Wells Fargo included mortgage bankers and home loan consultants, a workforce spread around the country, who are compensated mostly on sales volume, according to the people, who declined to be identified speaking about personnel matters.
The company cut bankers who operated in areas outside of its branch footprint and who therefore didn’t fit in the new strategy of catering to existing customers, the people said. Those cuts include bankers across the Midwest and the East Coast, one of the people said.
Some of those people were successful enough last year to be flown to a resort in Palm Desert, California, for a company-sponsored conference earlier this month. Palm Desert is a luxury enclave known for its warm weather, golf courses and proximity to Palm Springs.
It’s common practice in finance to reward top salespeople with multiday events held in swanky resorts that combine recognition, recreation and educational sessions. For instance, JPMorgan’s mortgage division is holding a sales conference in April.
A Wells Fargo spokeswoman said the bank has communicated with affected employees, provided severance and career guidance, and tried to retain as many workers as possible.
“We announced in January strategic plans to create a more focused home-lending business,” she said. “As part of these efforts, we have made displacements across our home-lending business in alignment with this strategy and in response to significant decreases in mortgage volume.”
The bank will also continue to serve customers “in any market in the United States” through its centralized sales channel, she added.
While this latest round of cuts wasn’t based on employees’ performance, Wells Fargo has also been cutting mortgage workers who don’t meet minimum standards of production.
In areas with expensive housing, that could be a minimum of at least $10 million worth of loans over the past 12 months, said one of the sources.
Last month, the bank said that mortgage volumes continued to shrink in the fourth quarter, falling 70% to $14.6 billion. Wells Fargo said it almost 11,000 fewer employees at the end of 2022 than in 2021.
The January mortgage announcement, reported first by CNBC, led recruiters to swarm top performers in the hopes of poaching them, according to one of the people.
Scharf addressed employees in a Jan. 25 town hall meeting in which he reiterated his rationale for the mortgage retrenchment.