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Tag: Investment strategy

  • 36% of Americans think real estate is the best long-term investment. Here’s the easiest way to get started

    36% of Americans think real estate is the best long-term investment. Here’s the easiest way to get started

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    Some Americans believe real estate is the best long-term investment. If you are among them, real estate investment trusts, or REITs, might be the easiest way to tap the market. 

    About 36% of surveyed Americans ranked real estate as the top long-term investment, more than cited stocks or mutual funds (22%), gold (18%) and savings accounts or certificates of deposits (13%), according to a recent survey by Gallup, a global analytics and advisory firm. 

    Fewer of the surveyed adults believe bonds and cryptocurrency are good investments for the long haul, at 4% and 3%, respectively, the report found.

    The firm polled 1,001 U.S. adults through telephone interviews from April 1-22. 

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    For those people who see long-term investment potential in real estate, REITs can be a great way to start as they have a “low barrier to entry,” said Stacy Francis, a certified financial planner and president and CEO of Francis Financial in New York City.

    An REIT is a publicly traded company that invests in different types of income-producing residential or commercial real estate. In many cases, you can buy shares of publicly traded REITs like you would a stock, or shares of a REIT mutual fund or exchange-traded fund. REIT investors typically make money through dividend payments.

    Some, “you can invest in for as little as $25,” said Francis, a CNBC Financial Advisor Council member.

    ‘No one gets super emotional about stocks’

    Real estate is a popular investment option among some Americans because it can evoke emotion and feeling, unlike stocks and bonds, Francis said.

    “No one gets super emotional about stocks,” she said. “But individuals definitely get emotional about real estate.” 

    Some people see it as a legacy to give to their children.

    “Instead of giving them a portfolio of stocks, I want to give them a house that is physical and they can use,” Francis said as an example.

    But buying a property and becoming a landlord takes a significant investment of money and time, more so than other kinds of portfolio assets.

    “It’s not easy being a landlord,” said CFP Kashif Ahmed, president of American Private Wealth in Bedford, Massachusetts. “There’s far more to it than just getting a monthly check.”

    Once you buy a property and turn it into an investment, you have to manage the property, properly insure it and be able to service it.

    Whether you do this yourself or have someone on your behalf take care of the property, it can cost money, Ahmed explained.

    REITs can also offer opportunities for diversification. Depending on the company, you are exposed to hundreds or even thousands of different properties or regions, experts say.

    You can also invest in different kinds of real estate properties, such as shopping malls, warehouses and office buildings. However, if you invest in a region or sector that experiences devaluations, that price decline will be reflected in your portfolio.

    “If there’s a REIT and it’s investing in shopping malls across the country, and shopping malls are not doing well … you’re going to feel that,” Francis said. “You’re not going to be protected.”

    How much real estate should be in your portfolio

    D3sign | Moment | Getty Images

    If you truly want to tap into the real estate market as a long-term investment, “really research on these funds,” Francis explained.

    REITs should also contribute to the diversification of your portfolio, “they shouldn’t be all of it,” said Francis. Some advisors recommend REITs should take up no more than 25% of your portfolio, she said.

    Be wary about how the REIT will affect your tax situation. REITs often pay out 90% or more of the profits in the form of dividends, which can be subject to ordinary income taxes, experts say.

    “It’s as if those dividends came to you and your paycheck at work,” Francis said.

    If you don’t need the additional income, try adding the REIT in a tax-sheltered account, such as an individual retirement account, Ahmed said.

    “Asset location matters,” he added.

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  • GameStop shares jump 30% as ‘Roaring Kitty’ schedules YouTube livestream for Friday

    GameStop shares jump 30% as ‘Roaring Kitty’ schedules YouTube livestream for Friday

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    Pavlo Gonchar | SOPA Images | Lightrocket | Getty Images

    Shares of GameStop shot to session highs Thursday after meme stock leader Roaring Kitty scheduled a livestream on Youtube, which would be his first one in almost four years.

    Roaring Kitty, whose real name is Keith Gill, set the time for his live chat at noon Friday, which traders speculated would be a bullish discussion about his massive GameStop stake. The investor hosted three-hour livestreams in August 2020 explaining his investing thesis behind his favorite brick-and-mortar video game retailer.

    GameStop popped 30% higher to trade around $40 apiece. It surged 40% at one point after this livestream update and trading was briefly halted for volatility. The stock is up more than 80% this week.

    Stock Chart IconStock chart icon

    GameStop, 1-day

    There were already more than 10,000 people waiting in the livestream and countless comments were flowing through the chat box.

    Gill, who goes by DeepF——Value on Reddit, resurfaced online recently more than three years after sparking the historic trading mania in 2021 that burned short-selling hedge funds. Last Sunday, he started posting screenshots of his E-trade portfolio holding 5 million shares of GameStop common shares and 120,000 call options. Combined, they have a market value of at least $200 million now.

    He seemed to have held onto his positions as of Monday night. Gill stopped posting updates after the Wall Street Journal reported that Morgan Stanley’s E-Trade broker was considering booting him because of the worry that what he was doing could amount to market manipulation. 

    The investor is a former marketer for Massachusetts Mutual Life Insurance. The mania in 2021 led to a series of congressional hearings, featuring Gill, around brokers’ practices and gamifying retail trading.

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  • The SBA is unveiling new credit lines of up to $5 million to fund small businesses

    The SBA is unveiling new credit lines of up to $5 million to fund small businesses

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    Ira L. Black – Corbis | Corbis News | Getty Images

    The U.S. Small Business Administration plans to unveil new government-backed credit lines of up to $5 million for small businesses, SBA Administrator Isabel Casillas Guzman told CNBC.

    The SBA is launching a working capital pilot program in the coming months that is designed to be more attractive to both lenders and borrowers than the agency’s existing products, Guzman said in a phone interview.

    “An ongoing challenge for small businesses who are trying to go after that contract, perhaps to help us rebuild infrastructure … or a manufacturing facility that’s trying to expand its orders, is being able to have working capital to deliver against that,” Guzman said.

    The project is part of the SBA’s efforts to broaden its flagship lending program for American small businesses. Through its 7(a) loan program, the SBA provides guaranties to lenders to encourage them to extend loans to small business owners.

    The program backed more than 57,000 loans worth $27.5 billion last year, a 7% increase from 2022; most of those loans were for less than $350,000.

    Isabel Guzman, administrator of the U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA) nominee for U.S. President Joe Biden, is sworn in during a Senate Small Business and Entrepreneurship Committee confirmation hearing in Washington, D.C., on Wednesday, Feb. 3, 2021.

    Bill Leary | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    But the SBA’s efforts to provide revolving lines of credit have had “less uptake” from lenders and business owners than the agency had hoped, Guzman said.

    The agency’s SBA Express loan, for instance, offers credit lines of up to $500,000, but with a 50% guaranty, which made it less appealing to lenders, she said. Another SBA product called CapLines had a complicated fee structure that wasn’t as affordable, Guzman said.

    “This product is our aim to increase access to a simpler working capital line,” Guzman said. “It basically takes the best of our various options to create a pilot program to see if we can get more borrowers an affordable working capital line, versus just a pure reliance on credit cards” or other capital sources,  she said.

    The SBA’s new working capital lines will have an annual fee and maximum interest rates based on the prime rate plus 3% to 6.5%, which would be roughly 12% to 15% today, according to the agency. They will allow small business owners to either fund specific projects or borrow against their assets.

    Loans larger than $150,000 will have a 75% guaranty by the SBA, limiting the losses that lenders face if customers can’t repay their debts. Loans smaller than $150,000 have an 85% guaranty, the agency said.

    “In an environment of higher interest rates, we want to make sure that the SBA is an option for more businesses,” Guzman said.

    Business owners interested in applying when the program goes live should head to the SBA’s website or its pre-screening lender platform, she said.

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  • GameStop shares rise 18% — well off highs — after ‘Roaring Kitty’ posts account showing $116 million stake

    GameStop shares rise 18% — well off highs — after ‘Roaring Kitty’ posts account showing $116 million stake

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    Meme stock GameStop rallied again Monday on speculation that Keith Gill, the man who inspired 2021’s epic short squeeze, could have a huge position in the video game retailer.

    Shares were last about 18% higher to trade around $27 apiece. It jumped more than 70% at the open.

    Gill, who goes by DeepF——Value on Reddit and Roaring Kitty on YouTube and X, reappeared Sunday night, posting a screenshot of what could be his portfolio holding a significant amount of GameStop common shares and call options.

    The Reddit trading crowd’s favorite trader holds 5 million shares of GameStop worth $115.7 million as of Friday’s closing price, according to the account snapshot posted on Reddit’s r/SuperStonk forum. The account also showed a position of 120,000 call options in GameStop with a strike price of $20 that expire on June 21 that were purchased for about $5.68 each. GameStop shares closed Friday at $23.14.

    The post was not independently verified by CNBC. Notably, he didn’t post on the infamous WallStreetBets chatroom where he posted all his trade updates at the height of the GameStop mania over three years ago, although the username is the same one used.

    Around the same time Sunday night, Gill posted on X a cryptic picture of a reverse card from the game “Uno.”

    GameStop shares hit their lows of the session following a late-afternoon report by the Wall Street Journal that Morgan Stanley’s E*Trader broker was considering booting Gill because of concern what he was doing amounted to market manipulation. The WSJ cited people familiar with the matter.

    Shares of AMC jumped 13% on Monday after the movie theater chain climbed 48% in May amid the revival of the meme stock craze.

    Gill’s first return to social media three weeks ago sparked an eye-popping rally in GameStop with shares more than doubling in May alone. At the time, he simply posted a picture of a man in a chair leaning forward, but that was enough to trigger a buying frenzy among amateur traders.

    GameStop took advantage of the May rally by raising more than $900 million in a stock sale.

    Stock Chart IconStock chart icon

    GameStop, YTD

    The investor is a former marketer for Massachusetts Mutual Life Insurance. In 2021, through YouTube videos and Reddit posts, Gill encouraged a band of retail traders to squeeze out short selling hedge funds in GameStop.

    The action got so wild at one point that brokerages including Robinhood had to restrict trading in the stock as it blew up their clearinghouse margin. The mania also led to a series of congressional hearings, featuring Gill, around brokers’ practices and gamifying retail trading.

    GameStop is still struggling with a transition to online gaming away from brick-and-mortar video game purchases, with investors banking on CEO Ryan Cohen to eventually reinvent the company.

    — CNBC’s Katrina Bishop contributed to this report.

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  • Hurricane season will bring 4 to 7 major storms, NOAA predicts. How to prevent catastrophic damage to your home

    Hurricane season will bring 4 to 7 major storms, NOAA predicts. How to prevent catastrophic damage to your home

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    Hurricane Irma strikes Miami, Florida, in 2017.

    Warren Faidley | Getty Images

    Hurricane season has officially begun.

    With scientists predicting yet another active year for storms, making your home hurricane resistant has become a more valuable precaution.

    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said in its forecast May 23 that it expects an 85% chance of “above-normal” activity this hurricane season, which spans from June 1 to Nov. 30.

    NOAA forecasts 17 to 25 total named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher. Eight to 13 are expected to spiral into hurricanes, and four to seven of those might turn into major hurricanes — Category 3, 4 or 5 — with winds reaching 111 mph or higher.

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    “Severe weather and emergencies can happen at any moment, which is why individuals and communities need to be prepared today,” Erik A. Hooks, deputy administrator at the Federal Emergency Management Agency, said in a statement released with the NOAA forecast.

    “Already, we are seeing storms move across the country that can bring additional hazards like tornadoes, flooding and hail,” he said. “Taking a proactive approach to our increasingly challenging climate landscape today can make a difference in how people can recover tomorrow.”

    How climate change may affect storm activity and damage

    Hurricanes are among the most expensive natural disasters in the U.S., and experts say the storm-related damage is likely to become more significant as storms become more severe.

    NOAA said “near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean” are expected to be among the factors creating the environment for tropical storm formation.

    A separate forecast from hurricane researchers at Colorado State University predicts an “extremely active” hurricane season in 2024 due to record-warm tropical and eastern subtropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures.

    The water temperatures across the tropical Atlantic in 2024 on average are about 1 degree Celsius, or 1.5 to 2 degrees Fahrenheit, warmer than normal. While it doesn’t sound like much, it’s a big difference, said Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist at the Department of Atmospheric Science of Colorado State University.

    “The tropical Atlantic right now is record warm,” he said. “That means more fuel for the storms that are trying to form.”

    Now’s the time to prepare and have a plan in place.

    Phil Klotzbach

    a senior research scientist at the Department of Atmospheric Science of Colorado State University

    While atmospheric and water conditions may change, it’s wise for residents of storm-prone areas to think about undertaking home projects sooner rather than later.

    “Now’s the time to prepare and have a plan in place,” Klotzbach said. “You don’t want to be making these preparations at the last minute.”

    Some of the projected effects of global warming on hurricane activity include sea level rise increasing coastal flooding, higher rainfall rates, and storms that are more intense and strengthen rapidly, according to a research overview from NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory.

    “Warmer sea surface temperatures intensify tropical storm wind speeds, giving them the potential to deliver more damage if they make landfall,” wrote the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, a think tank.

    Projections from reinsurer Swiss Re show that since the 1970s, hurricane residential loss expectations have been on the rise, in part due to an increase in hurricane activity and changes in property value from population growth. Improvements in building standards have offset some of that increase, however.

    Wind resistance is about preventing ‘pressurization’

    Upgrades could help consumers protect their home, typically one of their most valuable assets, from windstorms and other natural disasters.

    Making your home hurricane resistant can be a significant financial undertaking. But it’s one that has the potential to pay off as such storms become more intense due to climate change.

    In 2024, the national average cost to upgrade an entire house with hurricane windows runs between $1,128 and $10,293, or $100 and $500 per window, including installation, according to home improvement site This Old House. And that’s just one project.

    About $8.1 billion could be saved annually in physical damage from windstorms if homes had stronger connections between roofs and walls, or tighter nail spacing, according to a 2022 analysis on hurricane-resistant construction by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

    Part of the challenge of making home improvements with windstorms in mind is that hurricanes are different and unpredictable, said Jeff Ostrowski, a housing analyst at Bankrate.

    “You don’t know if you’re going to be dealing with storm surge, or high winds or heavy rains. You’re trying to prepare for all those things at once,” he said.

    It’s like a balloon that blows up, and when it blows up so much … it pops. That’s what happens to your house when the wind comes in. 

    Leslie Chapman-Henderson

    president and chief executive officer of the nonprofit Federal Alliance for Safe Homes

    There are two key elements in your home to help prevent wind-related damage in a hurricane, according to Leslie Chapman-Henderson, president and chief executive officer of the nonprofit Federal Alliance for Safe Homes, or FLASH. You want to:

    1. Make sure the structural strength between the roof and the wall can withstand wind pressure and impact of debris.
    2. Protect all the openings in your home: the doors, windows and the garage.

    “What we’re working to prevent is pressurization. It’s like a balloon that blows up, and when it blows up so much … it pops,” she said. “That’s what happens to your house when the wind comes in.” 

    Ways to make your home more hurricane resistant

    1. Have an inspector assess your house

    Having an inspector come out to see your house is a good starting point for your projects. They will provide a report of what areas in your home need to be redone or reinforced against harsh weather.

    2. Reinforce your roof

    The average cost to replace a roof in the U.S. is about $10,000, but the exact cost will depend on multiple factors, such as the size of your roof, according to the Department of Energy.

    Fortified, a nonprofit reroofing program that helps strengthen homes against severe weather, offers guidelines to homeowners planning to replace their roofs on how to withstand challenges in their area, said Jennifer Languell, president and founder of Trifecta Construction Solutions, a sustainable consulting firm in Florida.

    “It tells you what you need to do to make your roof more sturdy,” she said.

    If you’re not ready to completely reroof your house, adding caulk or an adhesive to strengthen the soffits — the material connecting the roof edge to the exterior walls — will reduce the probability of wind and water gushing into your attic in a storm, said Chapman-Henderson of FLASH. Repair jobs for the soffit and fascia, a horizontal board usually outside the soffit, can cost between $600 and $6,000, according to Angi.com.

    Securing the roof to the walls in an existing home with an attic can be done by installing metal clips or straps that strengthen the hold-down effect, she said. While the exact cost will depend on factors such as the size of your home and the scale of the project, such retrofitting costs span from $850 to $1,350, according to Kin, a home insurance company.

    You can do all this stuff in terms of hardening the house, but you’re still kind of at the mercy of whatever storm comes.

    Jeff Ostrowski

    housing analyst at Bankrate

    3. Secure your windows and doors

    “Do you have hurricane-impact windows? If not, can you put them in?” said Melissa Cohn, regional vice president of William Raveis Mortgage.

    If installing new hurricane windows isn’t in the budget, shutters are lower-cost options to protect windows and other openings, said Chapman-Henderson.

    Shutters vary by material, installation and price. Removable galvanized storm panels made of steel are $5 to $6 per square foot, making them the most affordable option, according to information compiled by FLASH.

    It may be worth installing shutters as an extra layer of protection, even with impact-proof windows, said Trifecta Construction Solutions’ Languell.

    Meanwhile, garage doors are the “largest and weakest opening,” said Chapman-Henderson. Replacing the entire garage door for a wind-rated or impact-resistant version can span from $2,000 to $9,000, according to FLASH.

    Emergency bracings can be a lower-cost solution: temporary 2-by-4 wood braces can reinforce your nonwind-resistant door for approximately $150 for materials and installation. A garage door storm kit can run up to $750, FLASH data found.

    “You can do all this stuff in terms of hardening the house, but you’re still kind of at the mercy of whatever storm comes,” said Bankrate’s Ostrowski.

    4. Talk to your insurer about possible discounts

    Strengthening your home against disasters may help lower your insurance cost.

    Insurers typically factor in natural-disaster risks when deciding what properties to underwrite and at what cost. That’s why some are pulling back in high-risk areas, or raising prices significantly.

    Insurance costs also tend to be higher for existing homes than newly built ones, because many older homes were constructed under less stringent building codes.

    Once you have an inspector visit your house and recommend projects to make your home more hurricane resistant, talk to your insurance agent about which suggestions are most likely to reduce your premium, Ostrowski said.

    Keep in mind that each state is different in terms of what premium reductions are available and to what extent, and it depends on the risks, the company’s exposure and the regulatory environment, said Loretta Worters, a spokeswoman for the Insurance Information Institute.

    Homeowners’ insurance premium rates are based on measurable risk, and while mitigation efforts might help reduce the risk, the scientific measurement of catastrophe risk and mitigation efforts is still evolving, she said.

    “All analysis of premium pricing related to mitigation efforts is a question of degree of risk, and not removal of risk entirely from the policy,” Worters said.

    Grants, financing can help mitigate costs

    If the cost of preparing your home against hurricanes is daunting, there may be grants, tax credits and other programs to help lessen the burden.

    Some states have set up matching grant programs for disaster retrofits, said Chapman-Henderson.

    In Florida, residents may be eligible to apply for grants up to a $10,000 dollar-for-dollar match for approved upgrades such as shutters, roofing, or strengthening a garage door or roof-to-wall connections, she said. There are similar programs in Alabama and Louisiana.

    To find out more, homeowners can search for loans, grants or tax credits available in their state through dsireusa.org, which lists all the funding opportunities and incentives for hardening your home against disasters, Languell said.

    For people with poor credit or who live in states that don’t have matching-dollar programs, Property Assessed Clean Energy programs allow a homeowner to finance upfront costs of eligible improvements on a property and pay the costs over time through the property tax bill, said Chapman-Henderson.

    Energy-efficient mortgages, also referred to as green mortgages, may also be worth exploring. These loans are meant to help homeowners finance eco-friendly home upgrades or outright buy homes that help reduce energy consumption and lower utility bills, although they often have strict loan limits and require additional information during your application, according to LendingTree.

    Depending on your hurricane-resistance project, that might be a fit: Sometimes, energy efficiency goes hand-in-hand with durability, Languell said.

    “Sealing the underside of your roof sheathing would also help you from an energy standpoint because it’s sealing all the cracks and crevices,” she said, as this repair both keeps your roof on your house and helps avoid water or air leaks.

    The same goes for window replacements: “If you are going to replace your windows from a single-pane window to an impact window that has a better energy performance, it’s saving you on energy,” Languell said.

    In this new series, CNBC will examine what climate change means for your money, from retirement savings to insurance costs to career outlook.

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  • Savings app CEO says 85,000 accounts locked in fintech meltdown: ‘We never imagined a scenario like this’

    Savings app CEO says 85,000 accounts locked in fintech meltdown: ‘We never imagined a scenario like this’

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    Oscar Wong | Moment | Getty Images

    When Adam Moelis co-founded a fintech startup named Yotta in 2019, he wanted to give Americans a new way to save money to help them cushion the ups and downs of life.

    Instead, his company has inadvertently been a source of deep pain for thousands of customers who relied on Yotta accounts to receive paychecks, pay bills and save for emergencies.

    The crisis began May 11, when a dispute between two of Yotta’s banking partners — fintech middleman Synapse and Tennessee-based Evolve Bank & Trust — led to the lockup of accounts at Yotta and at least two dozen other startups. Synapse declared bankruptcy earlier this year after several key clients abandoned the firm amid disagreements over the tracking of customer funds.

    For the past three weeks, 85,000 Yotta customers with a combined $112 million in savings have been locked out of their accounts, Moelis told CNBC. The disruption had upended lives, forced users to borrow money for food and thrown upcoming events like surgeries or weddings into doubt, he said.

    “The stories are heartbreaking,” Moelis said. “We never imagined something like this could happen. We worked with banks that are members of the FDIC. We never imagined a scenario like this could play out and that no regulator would step in and help.”

    Boom & bust

    The ongoing mess has exposed the risks in a corner of fintech that grew in prominence during a boom in venture investment — and it will likely reverberate for years as regulators increase scrutiny of the space.

    The so-called “banking as a service” model allowed consumer fintech companies to quickly launch savings accounts and debit services, with firms like Synapse acting as a bridge between the startups and FDIC-backed banks that ultimately held deposits.

    The heart of the dispute between Synapse and Evolve Bank involves a foundational function of finance: keeping accurate ledgers of transactions and balances. Synapse and Evolve disagree on how much of Yotta’s funds are held at Evolve, and how much are held at other banks that Synapse worked with.

    Synapse hasn’t responded to requests for comment, and Evolve has blamed Synapse for the breakdown.

    The Synapse bankruptcy has mostly ensnared lesser-known consumer fintech firms, especially after larger fintech players including Mercury and Dave fled the Synapse platform in the past year.

    That has left Yotta, which encouraged users to save money with free weekly lottery-style sweepstakes, as one of the largest companies to be affected. Accounts at crypto firm Juno and at Copper, which offered savings accounts for families and teens, also have been frozen.

    Non-systemic meltdown

    Moelis, who has been in contact with other fintech principals impacted by the Synapse failure, estimates that at least 200,000 total customer accounts with balances are locked. While Synapse has said in court filings it has 10 million end users, it’s likely that active accounts are far smaller, Moelis said.

    Adam Moelis, Co-Founder at Yotta Savings.

    Courtesy: Yotta

    The fintech co-founder said he believes the relatively limited scope of the issue, and the fact that most of those affected aren’t wealthy, has given regulators clearance to let the situation play out. Last year, regulators swiftly intervened in the regional banking crisis that threatened uninsured deposits of startups and rich families, he noted.

    “To me, if this was happening at a larger scale, I think regulators would have done something by now,” he said. “We’ve got real, everyday Americans that aren’t necessarily wealthy and don’t have the ability to lobby that are being impacted.”

    The Federal Reserve and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. have declined to comment on the issue. Representatives of the agencies have pointed to efforts they’ve made to encourage banks to manage the risks of using fintech partners.

    ‘Money doesn’t just disappear’

    But developments in the California bankruptcy court overseeing the Synapse failure give Moelis hope that at least some relief — a partial release of funds, perhaps — may be coming.

    Last week, former FDIC Chair Jelena McWilliams was named trustee over Synapse. Her job is to develop a plan to maintain Synapse systems and craft a solution “that allows funds to be returned to end users, to the rightful owners of those funds, as soon as humanly possible,” said Judge Martin Barash.

    For his part, Moelis said he doesn’t side with either Evolve or Synapse in their dispute — he just wants the situation resolved.

    “I don’t know who’s right or who’s wrong,” he said. “We know how much money came into the system, and we are certain that that’s the correct number. The money doesn’t just disappear; it has to be somewhere.”

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  • Cramer’s week ahead: Labor report, plus GitLab and CrowdStrike earnings

    Cramer’s week ahead: Labor report, plus GitLab and CrowdStrike earnings

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    CNBC’s Jim Cramer on Friday told investors what to pay attention to next week on Wall Street, highlighting the nonfarm payroll report and earnings from GitlLab and CrowdStrike.

    “To those of you who want the Fed to cut so badly that you’re staying on the sidelines until they do,” he said, “you’d better hope we get some weakness in the employment numbers next Friday.”

    GitLab will report on Monday. Cramer said he’s waiting to see how the company will perform because some in the enterprise software sector see issues with sales. He noted that GitLab’s last quarter was disappointing. It seemed to him as a one-off situation at the time, but maybe the report was a precursor of trouble to come in the industry, he said.

    Tuesday brings quarterly results from CrowdStrike, and Cramer said the cybersecurity company has been doing better than many of its peers.

    Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Ferguson and PVH also report Tuesday. Cramer will be waiting to see how HPE stacks up against competitors like Dell. According to Cramer, Ferguson is a great way to invest in infrastructure. He’ll also be watching PVH, known from brands like Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger, but said he prefers Ralph Lauren in the apparel space.

    Dollar Tree, Campbell Soup, Jack Daniels maker Brown-Forman and Lululemon will report on Wednesday. Cramer said he wonders if Brown-Forman will be able to explain what’s hurting liquor sales, as well as whether a difficult and crowded market for athleisure is already “baked into” Lululemon’s stock.

    On Thursday, JM Smucker and DocuSign are due to report. Cramer said JM Smucker needs to find something to make the company grow faster, and he wondered how DocuSign will figure out how to turn its business around.

    Friday brings perhaps the most important event of the week, according to Cramer, the Labor Department’s nonfarm payroll report for the month of May. He stressed the Federal Reserve won’t be inclined to cut rates until the unemployment rate reaches 4%. In April, the jobless rate inched up to 3.9% from 3.8% the previous month.

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    Jim Cramer looks ahead to next week's market game plan

    Jim Cramer’s Guide to Investing

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  • Making sense of the markets this week: June 2, 2024 – MoneySense

    Making sense of the markets this week: June 2, 2024 – MoneySense

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    Corporations, it seems, are just really, really good at making larger-than-ever profits. There are many reasons for fatter margins. It could be innovative new products and services, lower taxation, decreasing competition, willingness of consumers to pay higher prices, and so on. The bottom line is that the stock market will certainly pull back at some point (as it did this week). And there are solid reasons why companies are worth more now than they were, say, a few years ago.

    Source: AWealthOfCommonSense.com

    Stagflation’s disappearing act

    Back in spring/summer of 2022, all the “cool” writers were predicting a scary-sounding future of stagflation. We, on the other hand, were a bit more skeptical. We felt that these worst-case economic scenarios were just around the corner.

    So, two years later, are we fearing unemployment rates may shoot through the roof? Are we fearing a shrinking GDP? (Gross domestic product, that is.)

    Barry Ritholtz doesn’t think so. He’s the co-founder, chairman and chief investment officer of Ritholtz Wealth Management LLC, in New York City.

    Source: Ritholtz.com

    The above chart illustrates what economists call the “misery index.” It’s a rough approximation of measuring stagflation.

    You’ll notice that while things weren’t exactly great in 2020 and 2022, they weren’t historically bad either. Last year was downright tame, and (spoiler alert!) we’re probably in for another not-so-miserable year for 2024.

    Note, though, that this features American data. While Canada’s misery index isn’t quite as upbeat as the USA’s, Canada still sits below long-term averages.

    Sure, the cost of living is up in for Canadians and Americans. But so are wages. And unemployment in the USA is at 60-year lows. While growth in Canada has been “anemic,” we haven’t experienced the deep recession folks were worried about over the last couple of years. Growth in the U.S. has been excellent. And inflation has steadily trended downward in both countries.

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  • Bank of America CEO says U.S. consumers and businesses have turned cautious on spending

    Bank of America CEO says U.S. consumers and businesses have turned cautious on spending

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    Bank of America Chairman and CEO Brian Thomas Moynihan speaks during the U.S. Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee oversight hearing on Wall Street firms, on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., December 6, 2023. 

    Evelyn Hockstein | Reuters

    U.S. consumers and businesses alike have turned cautious about spending this year because of elevated inflation and interest rates, according to Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan.

    Whether it’s households or small- to medium-sized businesses, Bank of America clients are slowing down the rate of purchases made for everything from hard goods to software, Moynihan said Thursday at a financial conference held in New York.

    Consumer spending via card payments, checks and ATM withdrawals has grown about 3.5% this year to roughly $4 trillion, Moynihan said. That’s a sharp slowdown from the nearly 10% growth rate seen in May 2023, he said.

    “Both of our customer bases that have a lot to do with how the American economy runs are saying, ‘You know what? I’m being careful, slowing things down,’” Moynihan said, referring to consumers and businesses.

    The slowdown began last summer and is consistent with the “very low growth” environment of the period from 2016 through 2018, he said.

    Nearly a year after the last Federal Reserve rate increase, consumers and businesses are wrestling with inflation and borrowing costs that remain higher than they are accustomed to. The Fed began efforts to tame inflation by hiking its benchmark rate starting in March 2022, hoping it could slow the economy without tipping it into recession.

    Many economists believe the Fed is on track to pull off that feat, which has helped the stock market reach new highs this year. But consumers are still grappling with higher prices for goods and services, and that has impacted U.S. companies from McDonald’s to discount retailers as Americans adjust their behavior.

    Food shoppers are hitting up more store locations in search of deals, according to Moynihan. “They’re going to three grocery stores instead of two, is one of the stats we see,” he said.

    The now-tepid growth in overall spending is being propped up by travel and entertainment, while “other things have moderated, except for insurance payments,” Moynihan said. Growth in rent payments has slowed, he noted.

    “We’ve got to keep the consumer in the game in the U.S. economy, because [they’re] such a big part of it,” Moynihan said. “They’re getting a little more tenuous, and that is due to everything going on around them.”

    The same is true for small- and medium-sized businesses, the Bank of America CEO said. His company is the second-largest U.S. bank by assets, after JPMorgan Chase. Moynihan and other bank CEOs have a bird’s-eye view of the economy, given their coast-to-coast coverage of households and companies.

    Business owners are saying, “‘I still feel good about my overall business, but I’m not hiring as much. I’m not buying equipment as fast. I’m not making software purchases as fast,’” Moynihan said.

    The bank’s economists believe that inflation will take until the end of next year to get under control and that the Fed will begin cutting interest rates later this year, Moynihan said. The U.S. economy will probably grow at around a 2% level, avoiding recession, he added.

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  • Wells Fargo CEO talks up reasons to love the stock — plus, what’s behind the market drop

    Wells Fargo CEO talks up reasons to love the stock — plus, what’s behind the market drop

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    Every weekday, the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch — an actionable afternoon update, just in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street.

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  • Jim Cramer likes bullish calls on Viking and Airbnb but is cautious on this bank

    Jim Cramer likes bullish calls on Viking and Airbnb but is cautious on this bank

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  • Making sense of the markets this week: May 26, 2024 – MoneySense

    Making sense of the markets this week: May 26, 2024 – MoneySense

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    How a stock split works

    A stock split divides existing shares into smaller pieces. So, if you previously had one share of Nvidia worth $1,000, you would now have 10 shares of Nvidia each worth $100, for an unchanged total value of $1,000. Stock splits are a way for companies to ensure that investors can easily buy and sell single shares.

    Read “What is a stock split?” in the MoneySense glossary.

    The massive hype behind Nvidia has resulted in a price-to-earnings ratio of over 55x. By comparison, tech giants Microsoft and Apple currently have ratios of 36x and 29x, respectively. Conventional logic says Nvidia’s growth has to fall back into line at some point—but this sustained period of record earnings is tough to argue with for the moment. Nvidia made 18% more money in Q1 2024 than it did in Q4 2023, and it made a whopping 262% more money than it did in Q1 2023.

    To put this growth in perspective, Nvidia’s market capitalization has grown more than $1.1 trillion since Jan. 1, 2024. That’s bigger than the entire market capitalization of Canada’s 14 largest companies—and that’s just growth so far this year!

    Founder and CEO Jensen Huang sounded appropriately upbeat in stating, “The next industrial revolution has begun—companies and countries are partnering with Nvidia … to produce a new commodity: artificial intelligence.”

    Nvidia bought back $7.7 billion worth of its shares in Q1 and announced it was increasing its dividend from four cents to 10 cents per share (on a pre-split basis).

    Frankly, I think it’s just a matter of time until competitors start to close the gap with Nvidia and some of those juicy profit margins start to shrink. That said, there is a whole lot of money to be made while that process plays out. Clearly, investors are willing to pay a premium for Nvidia’s future earnings.

    Tough week for U.S. retail

    Despite last week’s record good news for Walmart, the first quarter was not universally good for big American retailers. All figures below are in U.S. dollars.

    U.S. retail earnings highlights

    Quarterly reports from three major retailers:

    • Target (TGT/NYSE): Earnings per share of $2.03 (versus $2.06 predicted), and revenue of $24.53 billion (versus $24.52 billion estimated).
    • Macy’s (M/NYSE): Earnings per share of $0.27 (versus $0.15 predicted), and revenue of $4.85 billion (versus $4.86 billion estimated).
    • Lowe’s (LOW/NYSE): Earnings per share of $3.06 (versus $2.94 predicted), and revenue of $21.36 billion (versus $21.12 billion estimated).

    All three of these retail heavy hitters cited a stretched consumer as the main reason for mediocre quarterly earnings reports. Target CEO Brian Cornell explained that low sales numbers reflected “continued soft trends in discretionary categories.” Compared to its rival Walmart, Target has substantially fewer customers coming into its stores to buy groceries, so the consumer shift to necessities appears to be hitting it harder.

    Lowe’s CEO Marvin Ellison had similar thoughts on the current retail scene, saying, “Interest rates can go down, but you still need consumer confidence to come up.” Macy’s CFO and COO Adrian Mitchell went so far as to say that its team expects consumers “will remain under pressure for the balance of the year.”

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  • Wells Fargo goes on quiet hiring spree to expand from lending. What it means for the stock

    Wells Fargo goes on quiet hiring spree to expand from lending. What it means for the stock

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    A woman walks past Wells Fargo bank in New York City, U.S., March 17, 2020.

    Jeenah Moon | Reuters

    Wells Fargo is breaking out of its lending roots. The bank has quietly gone on a hiring spree to grab a bigger slice of the profitable investment banking business long dominated by its Wall Street rivals.

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  • Nvidia crushes sky-high expectations and charts continued AI-driven dominance for years to come

    Nvidia crushes sky-high expectations and charts continued AI-driven dominance for years to come

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    Jensen Huang, co-founder and chief executive officer of Nvidia Corp., during the Nvidia GPU Technology Conference (GTC) in San Jose, California, US, on Tuesday, March 19, 2024. 

    David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    In what was the most anticipated quarter this earnings season, Nvidia far outpaced lofty expectations on the top and bottom lines. Even better was a big revenue guide and a broader vision from CEO Jensen Huang that reinforced the notion that companies and countries are partnering with the AI chip powerhouse to shift $1 trillion worth of traditional data centers to accelerated computing.

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  • Fintech nightmare: ‘I have nearly $38,000 tied up’ after Synapse bankruptcy

    Fintech nightmare: ‘I have nearly $38,000 tied up’ after Synapse bankruptcy

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    A dispute between a fintech startup and its banking partners has ensnared potentially millions of Americans, leaving them without access to their money for more than a week, according to recent court documents.

    Since last year, Synapse — an Andreessen Horowitz-backed startup that serves as a middle-man between customer-facing fintech brands and FDIC-backed banks — has had disagreements with several of its partners about how much in customer balances it owed.

    The situation deteriorated in April after Synapse declared bankruptcy following the exodus of several key partners. On May 11, Synapse cut off access to a technology system that enabled lenders, including Evolve Bank & Trust, to process transactions and account information, according to court filings.

    That has left users of several fintech services stranded with no access to their funds, according to testimonials filed this week in a California bankruptcy court.

    One customer, Chris Buckler, said in a May 21 filing that his funds at crypto app Juno were locked because of the Synapse bankruptcy.

    “I am increasingly desperate and don’t know where to turn,” Bucker wrote. “I have nearly $38,000 tied up as a result of the halting of transaction processing. This money took years to save up.”

    Until recently, Synapse, which calls itself the biggest “banking as a service” provider, helped a wide swath of the U.S. fintech universe provide services like checking accounts and debit cards. Former partners included Mercury, Dave and Juno, well-known fintech firms that catered to segments including startups, gig workers and crypto users.

    Synapse had contracts with 20 banks and 100 fintechs, resulting in about 10 million end users, according to an April filing from founder and CEO Sankaet Pathak.

    Pathak didn’t immediately return an email seeking comment. A spokesman for Evolve declined to comment, instead pointing to a statement on the bank’s website that read, in part:

    “Synapse’s abrupt shutdown of essential systems without notice and failure to provide necessary records needlessly jeopardized end users by hindering our ability to verify transactions, confirm end user balances, and comply with applicable law,” the bank said.

    It is unclear why Synapse switched the system off, and an explanation couldn’t be found in filings.

    The freeze-up of customer funds exposes the vulnerabilities in the banking as a service, or BAAS, partnership model and a possible blind spot for regulatory oversight.

    The BAAS model, used most notably by the pre-IPO fintech firm Chime, allows Silicon Valley-style startups to tap the abilities of small FDIC-backed banks. Together, the ecosystem helped these companies compete against the giants of American banking.

    Customers mistakenly believed that because funds are ultimately held at real banks, they were as safe and available as any other FDIC-insured accounts, said Jason Mikula, a consultant and newsletter writer who has tracked this case closely.

    “This is 10 million-plus people who can’t pay their mortgages, can’t buy their groceries … This is another order of disaster,” Mikula said.

    Regulators have yet to take a role in the dispute, partly because the underlying banks involved haven’t failed, the point at which the FDIC would usually intervene to make customers whole, Mikula added.

    The FDIC and Federal Reserve didn’t immediately return calls seeking comment.

    In pleading with the judge in this case, Martin Barash, to help the impacted customers, Buckler noted that while he had other financial accounts besides the one that is frozen, others are not as lucky.

    “So far the federal government is not willing to help us,” Buckler wrote. “As you heard, there are millions affected who are in far worse straits.”

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  • CFPB says buy now, pay later firms must comply with U.S. credit card laws

    CFPB says buy now, pay later firms must comply with U.S. credit card laws

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    Rohit Chopra, director of the CFPB, testifies during a House Financial Services Committee hearing on June 14, 2023.

    Tom Williams | Cq-roll Call, Inc. | Getty Images

    The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau declared on Wednesday that customers of the burgeoning buy now, pay later industry have the same federal protections as users of credit cards.

    The agency unveiled what it called an “interpretive rule” that deemed BNPL lenders essentially the same as traditional credit card providers under the decades-old Truth in Lending Act.

    That means the industry — currently dominated by fintech firms like Affirm, Klarna and PayPal — must make refunds for returned products or canceled services, must investigate merchant disputes and pause payments during those probes, and must provide bills with fee disclosures.

    “Regardless of whether a shopper swipes a credit card or uses Buy Now, Pay Later, they are entitled to important consumer protections under long-standing laws and regulations already on the books,” CFPB Director Rohit Chopra said in a release.

    The CFPB, which last week was handed a crucial victory by the Supreme Court, has pushed hard against the U.S. financial industry, issuing rules that slashed credit card late fees and overdraft penalties. The agency, formed in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, began investigating the BNPL industry in late 2021.

    Surging debt

    The use of digital installment loan-type services has ballooned in recent years, with volumes surging tenfold from 2019 to 2021, Chopra said during a media briefing. Among CFPB concerns are that some users are given more debt than they can handle, he said.

    “Buy now, pay later is now a major part of our consumer credit market as these loans provide a meaningful alternative to other options for consumers,” Chopra told reporters. “The CFPB wants to make sure that these new competitive offerings are not gaining an advantage by sidestepping longstanding rights and responsibilities enshrined under the law.”

    It’s unclear how many BNPL providers don’t comply with refund and dispute requirements; on the website for Affirm, for instance, there are pages for both activities.

    While the CFPB acknowledged that many BNPL players offer those services, the new rule will ensure that they are applied consistently across the industry, a senior agency official told reporters.

    The new rule will go into effect in 60 days, and the agency is now accepting public commentary on it, the official said.

    Shares of Affirm were off 5.2% Wednesday, while PayPal slipped 3%.

    Litigation ahead?

    For some time, BNPL providers have anticipated greater regulation, including efforts to apply existing card rules onto the industry. In March, Klarna published a post arguing that its no-interest product was less risky for customers than credit cards — which can often come with steep interest rates — thus requiring less oversight.

    “Instead of trying to jam BNPL into an outdated credit card framework that does little to actually protect consumers, leaders in Washington should draft and implement a framework for BNPL that is proportionate to the risk it poses,” Klarna said at the time.

    In a statement provided Wednesday, Klarna called the CFPB move a “significant step forward” in BNPL regulation, adding that it already adhered to standards for refunds, disputes and billing information.

    “But it is baffling that the CFPB has overlooked the fundamental differences between interest-free BNPL and credit cards, whose whole business model is based on trapping customers into a cycle of paying sky-high interest rates month after month,” said a Klarna spokesperson.

    An Affirm spokesman said the company was “encouraged” that the CFPB was promoting industry standards, “many of which already reflect how Affirm operates,” and that it was engaged with the regulator on improving how it operates.

    “Affirm’s success is aligned with responsibly extending access to credit as we do not charge late or hidden fees,” the spokesman said. “We urge other companies that offer buy now, pay later products to live up to the industry’s promise to provide consumers with a more flexible and transparent alternative to other payment options.”

    The industry’s stance raises the possibility that, like other financial players including payday lenders, BNPL companies could push back against the CFPB rule by suing the agency.

    The CFPB rule capping credit card late fees at $8 per incident, which was set to go into effect this month, was challenged and paused by a federal judge recently.

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  • Jamie Dimon says JPMorgan stock is too expensive: ‘We’re not going to buy back a lot’

    Jamie Dimon says JPMorgan stock is too expensive: ‘We’re not going to buy back a lot’

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    Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, testifies during the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee hearing titled Annual Oversight of Wall Street Firms, in the Hart Building on Dec. 6, 2023.

    Tom Williams | Cq-roll Call, Inc. | Getty Images

    Jamie Dimon thinks shares of JPMorgan Chase are expensive.

    That was the message the bank’s longtime CEO gave analysts Monday during JPMorgan’s annual investor meeting. When pressed about the timing of a potential boost to the bank’s share repurchase program, Dimon did not mince words.

    “I want to make it really clear, OK? We’re not going to buy back a lot of stock at these prices,” Dimon said.

    JPMorgan, the biggest U.S. bank by assets, has seen its shares surge 40% over the past year, reaching a 52-week high of $205.88 on Monday before Dimon’s comments dinged the stock. That 12-month performance beats other banks, especially smaller firms recovering from the 2023 regional banking crisis.

    It also makes the stock relatively pricey as measured by price to tangible book value, a commonly used industry metric. JPMorgan shares traded recently for around 2.4 times book value.

    ‘A mistake’

    “Buying back stock of a financial company greatly in excess of two times tangible book is a mistake,” Dimon said. “We aren’t going to do it.”

    Dimon’s comments about his company’s stock, as well as an acknowledgement that he may be nearing retirement, sent the bank’s shares down 4.5% Monday.

    To be clear, JPMorgan has been repurchasing its stock under a previously authorized buyback plan. The bank resumed buybacks early last year after taking a pause to build up capital under new expected guidelines.

    Dimon’s guidance simply means it is unlikely the program will be boosted anytime soon. JPMorgan is likely to purchase shares at a $2 billion to $2.5 billion quarterly clip, Portales Partners analyst Charles Peabody wrote in a March research note.

    The JPMorgan CEO has often resisted pressure from investors and analysts that he deemed short-sighted. When interest rates were low, Dimon kept relatively high levels of cash, rather than plowing funds into low-yielding, long-term bonds. That helped JPMorgan outperform other lenders, including Bank of America, when interest rates jumped higher.

    Underappreciated risks

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  • JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon signals retirement is closer than ever

    JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon signals retirement is closer than ever

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    Jamie Dimon, chief executive officer of JPMorgan Chase & Co., at the UK Global Investment Summit at Hampton Court Palace in London, UK, on Monday, Nov. 27, 2023. 

    Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    Jamie Dimon‘s days as CEO of JPMorgan Chase are numbered — though its unclear by how much.

    In a response to a question Monday about the bank’s succession planning, Dimon indicated that his expected tenure is less than five more years. That’s a key change from Dimon’s previous responses to succession questions, in which his standard answer had been that retirement was perpetually five years away.

    “The timetable isn’t five years, anymore,” Dimon said at the New York-based bank’s annual investor meeting.

    The ambiguity of Dimon’s plans has made succession timing at JPMorgan one of the persistent questions for the bank’s investors and analysts. Over nearly two decades, Dimon, 68, has made his lender the largest in America by assets, market capitalization and a number of other measures.

    Still, Dimon added Monday that he still has “the energy that I’ve always had” in managing the sprawling company.

    The decision of when he moves on will ultimately be up to JPMorgan’s board, Dimon said, and he exhorted investors and analysts to examine the executives who could take his place.

    Atop the short list of candidates is Marianne Lake, CEO of JPMorgan’s consumer bank, and Jennifer Piepszak, who co-leads its commercial and investment bank; the executives were given their latest assignments in January.

    “We’re on the way, we’re moving people around,” Dimon said.

    Even when he steps down as CEO, however, it’s likely he will stay on as the bank’s chairman, JPMorgan has said.

    Shares of the bank dropped 3.6%.

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  • Making sense of the markets this week: May 19, 2024 – MoneySense

    Making sense of the markets this week: May 19, 2024 – MoneySense

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    Rainey went on to comment on the state of American consumers. While “wallets are still stretched,” it was also the case that “even the low-income consumer seems to be holding in there pretty well,” he said. He also added that shoppers were still coming to Walmart to buy necessities like food and health-related items, along with less general merchandise (such as home goods and electronics).

    Going forward, Walmart is banking for growth on new revenue drivers, such as its subscription program, Walmart+. Global advertising grew 24% in Q1 and will be an interesting supplemental line of business for the company going forward—as it has been for retail rival Amazon

    In less celebratory news, Walmart has plans to streamline its store offerings by shuttering Walmart health clinics in American locations.

    Fellow big box-store titan Home Depot had a predictably-less stellar quarter than Walmart.

    Given that consumers continue to cut back on home renovations after the massive COVID reno-boom, it stands to reason that Home Depot shareholders might be in for a bit of a sideways run for a while.

    On Monday, the company revealed that while it was reporting its worst revenue miss in two decades, its bottom line was still holding up pretty well. Shares were mostly flat on the week.

    Photo by Loan on Unsplash

    Meme stock madness returns 

    One post on X, formerly known as Twitter, is all it took to squeeze a billion dollars out of companies shorting GameStop this week.

    For those who haven’t watched Dumb Money or Eat The Rich (excellent airplane flicks btw), GameStop stock is the iconic “meme stock.”

    What is a meme stock?

    A meme stock is an equity that sees growth instigated by internet memes—usually not based on earnings or value. To sum it up: GameStop is a semi-dying company that appears unlikely to make a profit in the foreseeable future. Consequently, it doesn’t make a lot of sense (according to traditional investing metrics) to pay a high price for GameStop stock. However, speculative bets on where its price could move can quickly make investors money (or make them lose it) quite quickly. Investors who short sell GameStop’s stock are essentially betting that the price will continue to go down. If enough people buy shares of GameStop, those short bets against its share price can cost those investors a ton of money.

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  • Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway made a number of changes in its equity portfolio last quarter

    Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway made a number of changes in its equity portfolio last quarter

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