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Tag: Investing/Securities

  • SEC charges crypto platform Kraken with operating as an unregistered exchange

    SEC charges crypto platform Kraken with operating as an unregistered exchange

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    The Securities and Exchange Commission charged cryptocurrency trading platform Kraken with operating as an unregistered securities exchange.

    The charges are the latest effort by regulators to crack down on crypto companies, some of which the SEC views as illegally selling securities without registering with the commission.

    Kraken didn’t immediately…

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  • Stock market surges toward 2023 high. Will holiday shoppers put it over the top?

    Stock market surges toward 2023 high. Will holiday shoppers put it over the top?

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    U.S. stocks have jumped back near to their summertime highs, a big rebound as investors enter the holiday season with Black Friday just days away.

    The shopping frenzy expected on Friday, the day after Thanksgiving, kicks off a spending spree for the holidays that could help buoy stocks after their surge this month.

    “With consumers employed…

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  • Short seller Jim Chanos to close hedge funds, return cash to investors: report

    Short seller Jim Chanos to close hedge funds, return cash to investors: report

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    Legendary short seller Jim Chanos told the Wall Street Journal Friday that he is closing his hedge funds, saying that “the marketplace for what I do has changed.” Chanos expects to return most of his investors’ cash by Dec. 31, the newspaper reported. The short seller famously detected issues with Enron Corp.’s filings two decades ago and earlier this year took on Tesla Inc. TSLA, but his funds had dwindled. Chanos & Co. manages less than $200 million currently, down from $6 billion in 2008, the Journal said. Chanos’s funds are down 4% so far this year, while the S&P 500 index SPX has gained more than 17%. Tesla is up…

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  • Foreign investors may have bailed out of Treasurys at exactly the wrong time

    Foreign investors may have bailed out of Treasurys at exactly the wrong time

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    Foreign investors dumped U.S. Treasury debt in September for the first time since May 2021, but it’s possible these sellers are already regretting it, according to one prominent Wall Street economist.

    The latest installment of the Treasury Department’s monthly reports on buying and selling of U.S. securities by foreign investors — by both central banks and other official parties and private institutions and individuals — showed they sold $1.7 billion in Treasurys on a net basis. That marked the first time foreign investors…

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  • How a second set of Trump tax cuts could jack up the national debt

    How a second set of Trump tax cuts could jack up the national debt

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    If Donald Trump were to be elected president in 2024, what would it mean for U.S. tax policy and the national debt?

    There are growing expectations that he could deliver another round of big tax cuts, with the reductions coming right as those enacted in 2017’s Tax Cut and Jobs Act are due to expire in 2025.

    “If Republicans hold their House…

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  • Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia—What Tech Stocks Hedge Funds Are Buying and Selling

    Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia—What Tech Stocks Hedge Funds Are Buying and Selling

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    It’s filing season for a string of major hedge funds, and big tech names like Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia were among the most-traded equities in the third quarter.

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  • Soros snaps up tech stocks in Q3, but dumps some of the biggest names

    Soros snaps up tech stocks in Q3, but dumps some of the biggest names

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    Soros Fund Management, the investment firm founded by billionaire George Soros, took new positions or bulked up on IPOs and a number of tech names during the third quarter.

    But it sold off small holdings of some of the largest — like Nvidia Corp. and Microsoft Corp. — as well as electric-vehicle maker Rivian Automotive.

    According to a filing on Tuesday, the firm during the third quarter bought up 325,000 shares of chip designer Arm Holdings
    ARM,
    +3.37%
    ,
    which went public in September, for $17.4 million. It also bought smaller stakes in recent IPOs such as Maplebear Inc.
    CART,
    +1.25%
    ,
    better known as grocery-delivery platform Instacart, and digital-marketing firm Klaviyo Inc.
    KVYO,
    +6.90%
    .
    Those purchases were disclosed as investors remain cautious on new IPOs.

    Elsewhere, the fund took a new position, of around 41,000 shares, in Apple Inc.
    AAPL,
    +1.43%
    .
    And it did so as well for Datadog Inc.
    DDOG,
    +4.58%
    ,
    buying 62,000 shares during the quarter. It also bought up 574,962 shares of Splunk, and took fresh positions in Snowflake Inc.
    SNOW,
    +4.51%

    and Taiwan Semiconductor
    TSM,
    +2.58%
    .

    Soros also packed on more to some of its other tech holdings. It added 125,000 shares to its stake in Uber Technologies Inc.
    UBER,
    +3.14%
    ,
    boosting its position by 16.6% for a total of 878,955 shares. It also bought 42,000 more shares of another gig-economy player, DoorDash Inc.
    DASH,
    +4.37%
    ,
    a 30.9% increase for 178,075 shares.

    While Soros boosted its stake in General Motors
    GM,
    +4.83%
    ,
    it sold off its 4.2 million shares in Rivian
    RIVN,
    +4.39%
    .
    The firm also sold off its positions — of roughly 10,000 shares apiece — in tech giants Microsoft
    MSFT,
    +0.98%

    and Nvidia
    NVDA,
    +2.13%
    .

    Soros Fund Management also sold off its stake in Walt Disney Co.
    DIS,
    +1.82%
    .

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  • How financial conditions might play into Fed’s thinking after October’s CPI

    How financial conditions might play into Fed’s thinking after October’s CPI

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    Financial markets were jubilant over Tuesday’s data showing that U.S. consumer prices eased by more than expected in October, with Treasury yields plummeting on expectations the Federal Reserve will refrain from raising interest rates further and might even lower borrowing costs.

    In a nutshell, financial conditions suddenly became looser, with the benchmark 10-year yield
    BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
    at 4.46% in New York afternoon trading or down by more than half a percentage point from its October peak. Right now, conditions are “much more accommodative” than when Fed officials first suggested higher long-term yields could do the work of tighter monetary policy and take the place of a rate hike, according to Will Compernolle, a macro strategist for FHN Financial in New York.

    The jury is out on how much a continuation of looser financial conditions will matter to central bankers. At one point in Tuesday’s session, both the 10-year yield and the policy-sensitive 2-year yield
    BX:TMUBMUSD02Y
    were heading for their biggest one-day declines in more than six months as traders revved up expectations for at least four Fed rate cuts in 2024.

    Tuesday’s October CPI inflation report “will be very welcome to the Fed, though it will inevitably make the Fed’s challenge of restraining market optimism and financial conditions more difficult too,” according to New York-based advisory firm Evercore ISI.

    In a note, Evercore’s Vice Chairman Krishna Guha and others wrote that “the Fed’s challenge is that the market sees this and is trying to jump to the endgame, risking a larger/sooner easing in financial conditions than the Fed itself would like to see under prudent upside inflation risk management principles. So expect Fed officials to maintain a very cautious and relatively hawkish tone.”

    Indeed, there’s plenty of reasons to remain careful about reading too much into one report.

    After Tuesday’s data, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin said he’s not convinced inflation is on a clear path toward 2% despite recent progress in curbing price pressures.

    Some economists also said October’s CPI report isn’t the game changer that markets think it is. And FHN’s Compernolle said that if the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures index (PCE), shows “horizontal momentum” when the October data is released later this month, there could be some on the Federal Open Market Committee “who feel the lower bond yields necessitate a higher fed funds rate.”

    Read: Economists in hawkish camp don’t surrender in wake of October consumer-inflation print

    At Hirtle Callaghan & Co., a West Conshohocken, Pa.-based firm which manages $18.5 billion in assets, Brad Conger, deputy chief investment officer, said that October’s CPI readings validate the Fed’s “wait-and-see” approach and that “it will take a rather long series of this order of magnitude to give them confidence to ease policy.”

    Meanwhile, “we worry that the recent easing of financial conditions and energy prices could easily start to counter the restraint,” Conger wrote in an email on Tuesday.

    In addition to a broad-based decline in Treasury yields, all three major U.S. stock indexes
    DJIA

    SPX

    COMP
    were higher as of Tuesday afternoon. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged almost 500 points on a buying frenzy as investors also cheered Tuesday’s low “supercore” inflation figure that acts as a proxy for labor costs.

    Just last week, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that the Fed is wary of “head fakes” from inflation, or temporary improvements that only reverse over time.

    If Tuesday’s CPI data for October isn’t a “head fake,” “the Fed may be able to accept a loosening of financial conditions in order to prevent a recession,” said Lawrence Gillum, a Charlotte, North Carolina-based fixed-income strategist for broker-dealer for LPL Financial. “If it is a head fake, then the Fed will talk up the need for higher long-end yields. It will probably take a couple more months of this type of report or better to see whether that plays out.”

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  • This week’s October inflation data looms large on Washington’s economic radar

    This week’s October inflation data looms large on Washington’s economic radar

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    Inflation data, a Fed speech and a government-shutdown deadline are on the calendar this week.


    MarketWatch photo illustration/iStock

    U.S. inflation data for October is clearly the economic highlight for markets, economists and policymakers this coming week. That’s because if price pressures continue their cooling trend from the summer, the Fed might be able to refrain from any more interest-rate hikes.

    Here’s a preview of the inflation report and other critical data and events that will have the markets’ attention this week.

    See: MarketWatch’s comprehensive economic calendar

    October consumer inflation

    Tuesday, 8:30 a.m. Eastern

    No economic reports matter more for the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate policy outlook than consumer inflation data. Inflation has been trending down since the summer, but many economists are wary that most of the progress was low-hanging fruit, and that it will take a lot to get back to the Fed’s 2% target. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell raised this concern in remarks on Thursday, saying the central bank was concerned about inflation “head fakes.”

    Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal expect headline CPI to moderate to a 0.1% rise in October, down from a 0.4% gain in the prior month, and the smallest increase since May.

    Over the past year, inflation is expected to rise at a 3.3% rate, down from 3.7% in the prior month.

    The improvement is expected to come mainly from gasoline prices.

    Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, is expected to rise 0.3%, matching a 0.3% gain in the prior month. The year-over-year rate is seen holding steady at a 4.1% annual rate.

    October retail sales

    Wednesday, 8:30 a.m. Eastern

    Economists expect retail sales to be weak, falling 0.1% in October after a 0.7% jump in September and a 0.8% gain in August.

    The outlook for consumer spending is one of the most intriguing questions about the outlook.

    Will the strong spending seen in the late summer fade away? With above-trend job growth and incomes rising, there seems no reason for consumers to pull back sharply. But many economists think that consumers are running out of excess spending power built up during the pandemic.

    Also see: Retail earnings begin this week. ‘It’s getting worse,’ an analyst says.

    Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee’s speech to the Detroit Economic Club

    Tuesday at 12:45 p.m. Eastern

    There are just under 20 public remarks from Fed officials scheduled this week. One of the highlights will be Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee’s moderated question-and-answer session before the Detroit Economic Club.

    Goolsbee, who joined the Fed at the beginning of the year, is comfortable speaking in public and on television from his days in the Obama administration, and afterwards as a pundit. His views also carry weight because he will be on any short list of potential replacements for Powell if President Joe Biden wins a second term.

    Goolsbee has looked prescient so far. In his first public speeches this summer, he suggested that there could be an improvement in inflation without a big rise in unemployment.

    Biden-Xi to meet at APEC summit

    Wednesday

    Biden and Xi will meet for the first time in a year at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in San Francisco, amid struggles in the Chinese economy and the recent strengthening of ties between XI and Russian Vladimir Putin.

    Derek Scissors, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, said investors should not expect anything market-moving from the talks. The Biden administration simply wants to get face time with Xi, he said.

    “The goal is to find out how to reach him, who are you supposed to talk to [to reach him in the future], and then have a good conversation with him where Biden can say a few things that we think he really needs to hear from us,” Scissors said.

    Gone are the days when the U.S. and China cooperated on economic issues, he said.

    Xi simply doesn’t care that much about the economy, Scissors said. He is more focused on “really strict party control of everything,” he added.

    Threat of a government shutdown

    Friday, midnight deadline

    The federal government will run out of money late Friday unless Congress passes legislation to keep the lights on.

    It is the first test for new House Speaker Mike Johnson. He has proposed a two-step government spending plan to keep the government open until early next year, but it remains uncertain whether this will break the logjam.

    Late Friday, Moody’s Investors Service lowered its outlook on the U.S. credit rating to “negative” from “stable.”

    This is actually positive for the prospects of a congressional deal, said Terry Haines, founder of Pangaea Policy, a political forecasting firm.

    Haines said he has lowered the odds of a government shutdown to 30% from 40% before the Moody’s move.

    “The last thing House Republicans should want to do…is show newly skeptical markets that they can’t even handle a continuation of government funding,” Haines said, in a note to clients.

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  • How ransomware attack on ICBC rattled the Treasury market and shook up a 30-year bond auction

    How ransomware attack on ICBC rattled the Treasury market and shook up a 30-year bond auction

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    It was a trading day unlike any other for traders in the $25 trillion Treasury market, with a 30-year bond auction seen as having been partially undermined by a cyberattack on the U.S. unit of a Chinese bank.

    In recapping Treasury’s poorly received $24 billion bond auction on Thursday, traders said the weaker-than-expected results likely had at least something to do with this week’s ransomware hit on the American arm of Industrial & Commercial Bank of China, known as ICBC. That attack reportedly caused disruptions across the market and had some impact on liquidity, with the Financial Times citing unnamed sources as saying hedge funds and asset managers were forced to reroute trades.

    Traders were grappling on Friday to answer the question of what created the sudden lack of interest at the auction, which went so badly that it also shook up U.S. stock investors. Thursday’s sale was the worst since November 2021, based on the extent to which primary dealers were forced to step in and pick up the slack in demand, one trader said. And it reinforced a recent pattern of weak auctions for the 30-year bond that may not bode well for future sales of that long-dated maturity.

    It’s possible that bonds simply “look much less attractive” following a recent “explosive rally” since late October, according to Charlie McElligott, a cross-asset macro strategist at Nomura Securities in New York. However, “this might be the case of ‘more than meets the eye’ to this ‘ugly auction evidencing low demand for duration’ story,” he wrote in a note.

    “One dynamic that makes yesterday’s ugly auction results murky was the ICBC cyberattack described across various financial media, which gunked-up anybody who clears UST trades through them, and made it so that many dealers were then likely unable to trade with those clients until resolved, on account of unsettled trades which weren’t able to be matched,” McElligott said.

    Adding to Thursday’s uncertainty was another random event. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell appeared on stage in an International Monetary Fund panel, was interrupted by a climate protester, and then uttered a seven-letter expletive that could be heard on the event’s livestream.

    Powell’s policy-related remarks, which indicated the central bank might take further action to control inflation, “didn’t help things and kind of spooked people again,” said John Farawell, head of municipal trading at New York bond underwriter Roosevelt & Cross.

    Read: Fed’s Powell Made Cryptic Comments. How He’s Guiding the Market.

    On Friday, the Treasury market found stabilization as buyers returned to segments of government debt in a sign that calm was being restored. A rush of buying was seen on the 30-year bond
    BX:TMUBMUSD30Y,
    sending its yield down to 4.733% and to a third straight weekly decline.

    Meanwhile, Bloomberg News reported that the repercussions of the ICBC cyberattack included an inability to deliver U.S. debt that was being pledged as collateral. ICBC’s U.S. unit was forced to rely on a messenger carrying a USB stick across Manhattan to complete disrupted trades, according to the news service, which also described Thursday’s $24 billion 30-year bond auction as one of the worst in a decade.

    The ICBC attack “might have had a dramatic impact on the auction. I don’t know how much, but I also can’t imagine it didn’t,” said Tom di Galoma, co-head of global rates trading for BTIG in New York. “When people see that there are trade-settlement issues, there’s a willingness to back off and that’s exactly what happened yesterday. Institutional accounts were saying, ‘We don’t know who is settling this trade.’ If the cyberattack hadn’t happened, I think the auction would have gone a lot better.”

    Ben Emons, a senior portfolio manager and head of fixed income for NewEdge Wealth in New York, said that once the Treasury market got upended by the ICBC cyberattack, the bad auction, and the interruption during Powell’s appearance, liquidity on U.S. government debt “was, for a moment, a dark matter.”

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  • Here’s how to use the new tax-bracket information for 2024 to lower your tax bill

    Here’s how to use the new tax-bracket information for 2024 to lower your tax bill

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    When it comes to managing your taxes, where you fall in one of the seven progressive tax brackets is the key to understanding how much you’re going to end up paying when you file your return.

    The Internal Revenue Service announced new inflation-adjusted brackets for 2024 on tax rates that go from 10% to 37%. The dollar amounts of income separating the bands run from as little as $11,600 to more than $365,000, for those filing single, with similar ratios for those married filing jointly. 

    You can pay no attention to this at all, and just let your tax preparer or software figure out the math for you. Or you can delve into the details and potentially reduce the amount you owe. 

    A progressive tax system means you don’t pay the top rate on your whole income. Instead, you pay the rates for each band in a row as you go up the income ladder. If your taxable income as a single filer is $11,600 in 2024, you’ll pay 10% on the entire amount. Anything above that, and you pay the 10% tax on that first chunk, and then add each additional band on top of it.

    Next year, for instance, if you have taxable income of more than $609,350, that puts you in the 37% bracket. You’ll pay $183,647.25 — the stacked combination of the 10%, 12%, 22%, 24%, 32% and 35% brackets — plus 37% of the excess over $609,350. 

    To figure out where you fall on the spectrum, you just need to estimate your 2024 taxable income or extrapolate from your previous tax returns. You can see the full tax-bracket charts here

    This may seem like just a curiosity for those with straightforward income, but you’ll need to pay close attention if you’re planning any atypical financial moves, such as a retirement, a conversion from a 401(k) to a Roth IRA or the sale of a business or significant piece of property. 

    “Everyone seems to care about tax brackets,” says Sri Reddy, the senior vice president of retirement and income solutions at Principal Financial Group. “But I wouldn’t tell you to worry about it. You should make as much money as you want, because you get to keep some portion of it. I’d just rather have you have an awareness of what it might mean to you.”

    Here’s where tax-bracket management matters most: 

    Retirement savings

    You can know your tax bracket now, but you don’t know what it will be in the future. Your retirement savings are stuck in the middle. 

    Should you pay tax on your retirement savings now and save in a Roth IRA or Roth 401(k), so the growth is tax-free after you’re 59½? Or should you save in tax-deferred accounts and pay tax down the road when you spend the money — or are forced to withdraw it yearly for required minimum distributions? And if you do this, at some point do you want to convert some of those funds to Roth, pay the tax and then let the funds grow tax-free into the future? 

    “If you’re in a high tax bracket now, doing a Roth contribution to your 401(k) makes no fiscal sense,” says Chris Chen, a Boston-based certified financial planner who runs Insight Financial Strategists

    Chen recently advised a couple in their 50s who wanted to shift all of their 401(k) contributions from tax-deferred accounts to Roth to save the hassle of converting the funds later. The challenge is they are currently in the 35% tax bracket, and must also pay Massachusetts’ 5% state income tax. They plan to retire early, at which point they’ll probably drop to the 12% bracket.

    “So putting money in Roth now does not make sense from a tax standpoint,” says Chen. “They got persuaded to continue putting money into a traditional 401(k), and they deferred the Roth idea to later.”

    Roth conversions

    When you do come to the Roth conversion stage, you’ll need to look even closer at your tax bracket so that you can see how much income you can add without pushing into the next level. It’s a particularly steep increase from the 12% bracket to the 22% bracket, and then from the 24% bracket to the 32% bracket. 

    “You have to see at what point is it too painful to pay the tax,” says Ryan Losi, a CPA and executive vice president at PIASCIK, based in Glen Allen, Va. “We don’t want to go up to 32% or 35%, because that’s too big a payment.”

    For example, if your taxable income for 2024 is going to be $80,000 as a married couple, you’d be in the 12% bracket. If you plan to convert $20,000 from your 401(k) or IRA to Roth, that pushes you over the $94,300 limit, and $5,700 would be taxable at 22%, to the tune of $1,254. So perhaps you’d want to only convert $14,000 instead, and by controlling the size of the conversion, you can minimize your tax liability. 

    You can do some of this tax-bracket management on the income side as well, Reddy says. You can employ a bunching strategy, meaning you make all your stock sales that would cause capital gains in one year and avoid transactions the following year. Or you might be due a lump-sum payment for disability or severance or from an annuity, and you can spread it out instead. “This is where awareness is important,” says Reddy. 

    Charitable giving

    Bunching strategies also are helpful with charitable giving. Losi’s high-income clients are big users of donor-advised funds, which are charitable accounts that allow donors to take a deduction the year they deposit the funds and then distribute them later. “Clients will call and ask me, ‘What do I need to contribute this year to get me out of the 37% bracket?’” Losi says. 

    This works with the lower brackets, too, not just among the rich. If you’re in a high-tax state or paying a mortgage, it might benefit you to see where you are in your tax bracket. If you make a charitable donation of even a few hundred dollars, it could make sense for you to itemize instead of taking the standard deduction, and that extra amount could push you into a lower bracket. 

    Business owners and QBI

    Business owners and sole practitioners are the ones who pay the most attention to their tax brackets, Losi says, especially because of the qualified business income deduction that can reduce taxes on business income by up to 20%. The rules are complicated, and it takes a lot to manage not only where you fall in the brackets, but also the phase-outs for specific trades. 

    For these taxpayers, it may make sense to try to get paid less by clients in a certain calendar year, and pay themselves more. 

    “You can invoice, but tell clients to hold off on payment,” Losi says. “You can accelerate deductions. You can deduct 100% of capital spent for automobiles, desks, chairs — everything [a business] needs to run.”

    Losi also encourages business owners to pay themselves a healthy salary, which can reduce business income, and then set up solo qualified plans and cash-balance pension plans to put that money away pretax. “Heck yeah, cash-balance pension plans,” Losi says. “I’m the trustee of ours.”

    More on investment tax strategy:

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  • Treasury’s $24 billion 30-year bond auction goes poorly, trader says

    Treasury’s $24 billion 30-year bond auction goes poorly, trader says

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    Thursday afternoon’s $24 billion sale of 30-year Treasury bonds drew weaker-than-expected demand, according to Greg Faranello, head of U.S. rates trading and strategy at AmeriVet Securities in New York, citing the bid-to-cover ratio and yield concession which came in. The 1 p.m. Eastern time auction caps a trio of sales that have taken place since Tuesday, totaling $112 billion, and which were seen as important tests of demand. Treasury yields moved up slightly after the Thursday’s auction results came out, reflecting a further selloff in underlying government debt.

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  • Here’s why you might not have to pay a 6% commission next time you sell a home

    Here’s why you might not have to pay a 6% commission next time you sell a home

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    Going back decades, if you wanted to buy or sell a stock on the open market, you had to pay a 2% commission to buy and a 2% commission to sell. Then the advent of discount brokerage, led by Charles Schwab Corp.
    SCHW,
    +1.64%
    ,
    made lower commissions available until eventually, with improved technology and efficiency, the entire industry changed to enable the average investor to avoid commissions completely.

    But the internet hasn’t done much to reduce the cost of selling a home in the U.S. Sellers typically pay a 6% commission to a real-estate agent to list and sell a home, with the seller’s agent splitting that commission with the buyer’s agent. But all of that may change because of a verdict this week in a class-action lawsuit in federal court against the National Association of Realtors.

    Aarthi Swaminathan covers the case, what may happen next and the implications for home sellers and buyers:

    Real-estate advice from the Moneyist


    MarketWatch illustration

    Quentin Fottrell — the Moneyist — works with three readers to answer tricky real-estate questions:

    Economic outlook

    On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may have bolstered the case that the central bank is finished raising interest rates for this economic cycle. The federal-funds rate was left in its target range of 5.25% to 5.50%.

    Jon Gray, the president of Blackstone Group, spoke with MarketWatch Editor in Chief Mark DeCambre and said he expected the Fed to succeed in bringing down inflation without pushing the U.S. economy into a deep recession.

    Friday employment numbers: Jobs report shows 150,000 new jobs in October as U.S. labor market cools

    Bond-market trend switches again

    The U.S. Treasury yield curve has been inverted for nearly a year.


    FactSet

    Normally, longer-term bonds have higher yields than those with short maturities. But the yield curve has been inverted for nearly a year, with 3-month U.S. Treasury bills
    BX:TMUBMUSD03M
    having higher yields than 10-year Treasury notes
    BX:TMUBMUSD10Y.

    There has been elevated demand for long-term bonds, as investors have anticipated a recession and a reversal in Federal Reserve interest-rate policy. When interest rates decline, bond prices rise and vice versa.

    As you can see on the chart above, the yield curve was narrowing until mid-October. Yields on 10-year Treasury notes were close to 5% on Oct. 19, but they have been falling the past several days as the three-month yield has remained close to 5.5%.

    In this week’s ETF Wrap, Christine Idzelis reports on where all the money is flowing in the bond market.

    In the Bond Report, Vivien Lou Chen summarizes the action as investors react to the Federal Reserve’s decision not to change its federal-funds-rate target range this week and to other economic news.

    For income-seekers looking to avoid income taxes, here’s a deep dive into municipal bonds, with taxable-equivalent yields and a deeper look at those within four high-tax states.

    Ford’s good news — in the bond market

    Ford Motor Co.’s debt rating has been lifted by S&P to investment-grade.


    Getty Images

    Ford Motor Co.’s
    F,
    +4.14%

    credit rating was upgraded to an investment-grade rating by Standard & Poor’s on Monday. This takes about $67 billion in bonds out of the high-yield, or “junk,” market, as Ciara Linnane reports.

    A stock-market warning based on history

    The original Magnificent Seven.


    Courtesy Everett Collection

    By now you have probably heard the term “Magnificent Seven” used to describe stocks of the tremendous tech-oriented companies that have led this year’s rally for the S&P 500
    SPX
    : Apple Inc.
    AAPL,
    -0.52%
    ,
    Microsoft Corp.
    MSFT,
    +1.29%
    ,
    Amazon.com Inc.
    AMZN,
    +0.38%
    ,
    Nvidia Corp.
    NVDA,
    +3.45%
    ,
    Alphabet Inc.
    GOOGL,
    +1.26%

    GOOG,
    +1.39%
    ,
    Meta Platforms Inc.
    META,
    +1.20%

    and Tesla Inc.
    TSLA,
    +0.66%
    .
    With Tesla’s recent decline, that company is now the ninth-largest holding in the portfolio of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
    SPY,
    which tracks the benchmark index. Here are the top 10 companies held by SPY (11 stocks, including two common-share classes for Alphabet), with total returns through Thursday:

    Company

    Ticker

    % of SPY portfolio

    2023 total return

    2022 total return

    Total return since end of 2021

    Apple Inc.

    AAPL,
    -0.52%
    7.2%

    37%

    -26%

    1%

    Microsoft Corp.

    MSFT,
    +1.29%
    7.1%

    46%

    -28%

    5%

    Amazon.com Inc.

    AMZN,
    +0.38%
    3.5%

    64%

    -50%

    -17%

    Nvidia Corp.

    NVDA,
    +3.45%
    3.0%

    198%

    -50%

    48%

    Alphabet Inc. Class A

    GOOGL,
    +1.26%
    2.1%

    44%

    -39%

    -12%

    Meta Platforms Inc. Class A

    META,
    +1.20%
    1.9%

    158%

    -64%

    -8%

    Alphabet Inc. Class C

    GOOG,
    +1.39%
    1.8%

    45%

    -39%

    -11%

    Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class B

    BRK.B,
    +0.80%
    1.8%

    13%

    3%

    17%

    Tesla Inc.

    TSLA,
    +0.66%
    1.7%

    77%

    -65%

    -38%

    UnitedHealth Group Inc.

    UNH,
    -0.98%
    1.4%

    2%

    7%

    9%

    Eli Lilly and Company

    LLY,
    -2.15%
    1.3%

    60%

    34%

    115%

    Sources: FactSet, State Street (for SPY holdings)

    Five of these stocks (including the two Alphabet share classes) are still down from the end of 2021. SPY itself has returned 14% this year, following an 18% decline in 2022. It is still down 7% from the end of 2021.

    Mark Hulbert makes the case that a decade from now, the Magnificent Seven are unlikely to be among the largest companies in the stock market.

    More from Hulbert: These dividend stocks and ETFs have healthy yields that can lift your portfolio

    A different market opportunity: India is seeing a multidecade growth surge. Here’s how you can invest in it.

    The MarketWatch 50


    MarketWatch

    The MarketWatch 50 series is back, with articles and video interviews starting this week, including:

    PayPal soars after earnings report

    PayPal CEO Alex Chriss.


    MarketWatch/PayPal

    After the market close on Wednesday, PayPal Holdings Inc.
    PYPL,
    +1.89%

    announced quarterly results that came in ahead of analysts’ expectations, and the stock soared 7% on Thursday even though the company lowered its target for improving its operating margin.

    In the Ratings Game column, Emily Bary reports on the positive reaction to PayPal’s new CEO, Alex Chriss.

    A less enthusiastic earnings reaction: EV-products maker BorgWarner’s stock suffers biggest drop in 15 years after downbeat sales outlook

    Consumers drive mixed reactions to earnings results

    Apple Inc. reported mixed quarterly results.


    Mario Tama/Getty Images

    Here’s more of the latest corporate financial results and reactions. First the good news:

    And now the news that may not be so good:

    Harsh verdict for SBF

    FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried.


    AP

    It might seem that some legal battles never end, but it took only a year from the collapse of FTX for the cryptocurrency exchange’s founder, Sam Bankman-Fried, to be convicted on all seven federal fraud and money-laundering charges brought against him. The charges were connected to the disappearance of $8 billion from FTX customer accounts.

    Here’s more reaction and coverage of the virtual-currency industry:

    Want more from MarketWatch? Sign up for this and other newsletters to get the latest news and advice on personal finance and investing.

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  • Dow logs best three-day stretch since April as Fed leaves interest rates on hold

    Dow logs best three-day stretch since April as Fed leaves interest rates on hold

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    U.S. stocks rose on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 capping off its biggest three-day percentage-point gain since March after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell again suggested that rising Treasury yields were likely aiding the central bank’s fight against inflation. This could potentially ease the pressure on the Fed to push interest rates even higher, which helped boost stocks. The S&P 500 SPX finished higher for the third straight day, rising 44.04 points, or 1.1%, on Wednesday to 4,237.84, according to preliminary closing data from FactSet. The index has gained nearly 3% over the last three trading days, its biggest…

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  • AI could spark the next financial crisis, SEC Chair Gary Gensler says

    AI could spark the next financial crisis, SEC Chair Gary Gensler says

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    Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler has plenty to worry about as he seeks to bring order and fairness to America’s $100 trillion capital markets, and there are few issues that cause him more concern than the spread of artificial-intelligence technology. 

    In an exclusive interview with MarketWatch, the regulator argued that generative AI technologies in the vein of ChatGPT have the potential to revolutionize the way we invest by leveraging large data sets to “predict things that were unimaginable even 10 years ago,” but that these new powers will come with great risks. 

    “A growing issue is that [AI] could lead to a risk in the whole system,” Gensler said. “As many financial actors rely on one or just two or three models in the middle … you create a monoculture, you create herding.” 

    Gary Gensler: AI could pose ‘a risk in the whole system.’

    This herding effect can be dangerous if there is a flaw in the model that might reverberate through markets during a time of stress, causing abrupt and unpredictable price changes in markets. Gensler pointed to the examples of cloud computing and search engines as markets for tech products that have quickly become dominated by one or two major players, and he said he worries about similar concentration in the market for AI technology.

    The regulator said this issue is especially difficult because of the fragmented nature of the U.S. regulatory apparatus, which relies on the SEC to oversee securities markets while other agencies have responsibility for banks or commodity markets. 

    “This is more of a cross-entity issue,” Gensler said. “That’s the challenge for these new technologies.”

    As SEC chair, Gensler has escalated his regulatory agency’s crackdown on the cryptocurrency industry in 2023 by launching lawsuits against Binance and Coinbase, the two largest digital asset exchanges in the world by trading volume. The SEC alleges the two companies are operating unregistered securities exchanges in the U.S., but the companies say they are not running afoul of securities laws.

    Gensler is simultaneously pushing forward the most fundamental market-structure reform measures in a generation. Gensler lands on The MarketWatch 50 list of the most influential people in markets

    But AI is another issue that Gensler is starting to ring alarm bells over. There’s a little bit of irony because the promise of AI has largely been responsible for the S&P 500’s
    SPX
    gains in 2023. The SEC chair said that his agency is already contemplating new rules to regulate artificial intelligence. For example, the SEC proposed a rule this summer to address conflicts of interest associated with stock brokers and investment advisors that leverage algorithms to predict and guide investor decisions through their smartphone applications or web interfaces.

    The industry is pushing back on the proposal, arguing that existing rules are sufficient to prevent harm to investors and that a new rule would prevent brokers from using technology to create a better experience for clients. 

    Gensler said that the SEC benefits from such feedback, but still believes that regulators must be vigilant about the impact of these so-called predictive analytical tools. “If they do that to suggest a certain movie on a streaming app, okay,” he said. “But if they’re doing that about your financial help … we should address those conflicts.”

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  • Prosecutors hammer at Sam Bankman-Fried’s credibility in FTX criminal fraud trial

    Prosecutors hammer at Sam Bankman-Fried’s credibility in FTX criminal fraud trial

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    Federal prosecutors on Monday sought to chip away at FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried’s credibility, pointing to discrepancies between his public comments and actions taken behind the scenes as the company collapsed.

    In a steady drumbeat of questions, Assistant U.S. Attorney Danielle Sassoon tried to paint Bankman-Fried, the 31-year-old former wunderkind of the crypto world, as someone who lied to his customers about the safety of their investments, while secretly raiding their accounts to fund his own risky investments, luxury real estate purchases, costly celebrity endorsements and political contributions.   

    In his second day of testimony before a jury in his criminal fraud trial in Manhattan’s federal court, Bankman-Fried repeatedly said he couldn’t remember exactly what he had said in numerous media interviews in the days and weeks after FTX had declared bankruptcy and $8 billion in customer deposits had vanished. 

    He also sought to distance himself from decision-making at FTX’s sister investment firm, Alameda Research, whose risky bets helped bring the crypto trading platform down. 

    Sassoon pointed to multiple public comments by Bankman-Fried in which he claimed FTX’s risk management protocols made it safer than other crypto currency trading platforms, while the company allowed its own investment arm, Alameda Research to make risky bets without limit. 

    FTX ultimately collapsed largely as a result of the billions in loans it had extended to Alameda, which prosecutors allege was done using customer money.

    Federal prosecutors have alleged that Alameda was effectively granted carte blanche to use FTX customer money to make risky bets. One key element was that certain risk-management systems that FTX used to to liquidate customer accounts that had entered into negative territory were disabled for Alameda, allowing it unfettered ability to make high-risk moves.

    Throughout his testimony, Bankman-Fried claimed he had limited visibility as to what was happening at Alameda, which he founded and mostly owned, but which had ceased running day-to-day in 2021, when his ex-girlfriend Caroline Ellison took over as CEO. 

    He said he only became aware of how bad a liquidity issue Alameda faced well after a financial crisis began sweeping through the crypto industry in the summer of 2022.  Bankman-Fried said he had told Ellison, who had pleaded guilty and testified against him, that she should have taken hedge positions earlier to lessen the company’s risk.

    But he said he continued to believe up until just days before the companies collapsed, that both Alameda and FTX were on firmer financial footing.

    “I viewed Alameda as solvent and FTX as solvent and decently liquid,” he testified. “Had that analysis come up any other way, I would have been in full on crisis mode. But in my view at the time that wasn’t the case.”

    Bankman-Fried did admit that he consulted frequently with Ellison about moves that Alameda made and even signed off on several billion-dollar investments. 

    “I think a few billion of them were my decision,” he said when asked about several large investments made by Alameda in 2021 and 2022. 

    Bankman-Fried is expected back in court for further cross examination on Tuesday. The judge in the case said he expected the case may go to the jury as early as Friday. 

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  • How stock-market investors can ride out a ‘fear cycle’ as S&P 500, Nasdaq fall into correction

    How stock-market investors can ride out a ‘fear cycle’ as S&P 500, Nasdaq fall into correction

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    Many people like to feel at least a little bit of fright.

    That has been the whole point of Halloween for ages. The spooky traditions might even be a sort of hedge, a way to limit carnage should darker days lurk around the corner.

    Where it gets trickier is when fear impacts a nest egg, retirement fund or portfolio holdings. And fear of looming mayhem has been higher in October, with a sharp selloff causing the S&P 500 index
    SPX
    to break below the 4,200 level, landing it in a correction on Friday. It also joined the Nasdaq Composite Index in falling at least 10% from a summer peak.

    In addition, a brutal bond-market rout has pushed the 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields
    BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
    up dramatically, with both recently dancing around the 5% level, which can drive up borrowing costs for the U.S. economy and cause havoc in financial markets.

    “Round numbers matter,” said Rich Steinberg, chief market strategist at The Colony Group, which has $20 billion in assets under management. He said the backdrop has investors trying to figure out “where to put money” and wanting to know “where can we hide?”

    “When you get into a fear cycle, the dynamics can get out of whack with reality,” Steinberg said. He thinks investors won’t go wrong earning roughly 5.5% on shorter term risk-free Treasurys, while penciling in stock prices they like.

    “That’s where investors really get rewarded over the long-term,” he said, granted they have enough liquidity to ride out what could be elongated patches of volatility.

    Increasingly, investor worries tie back to U.S. government spending, with the Treasury Department early next expected to release an estimated $1.5 trillion borrowing need to accommodate a large budget deficit. That would unleash even more Treasury supply into an unsettled market, and potentially strain the plumbing of financial markets.

    Higher U.S. bond yields threaten to make it more expensive for the federal government to service its debt load, but they also can be prohibitive for companies, sparking layoffs and defaults.

    Fed decisions, yields

    The Federal Reserve is expected to hold its policy interest rates steady on Wednesday following its two-day meeting, keeping the rate at a 22-year high in the 5.25%-5.5% range.

    The real fireworks, however, often appear during Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s afternoon press conference following each rate decision.

    “I firmly believe they are done for good,” said Bryce Doty, a senior portfolio manager at Sit Investment Associates, of Fed hikes in this cycle, which he notes should set up bond funds for a banner 2024, after two rough years, given today’s higher starting yields.

    Yet, Doty also sees two “wild cards” that could rattle markets. Heavy Treasury debt issuance could overwhelm liquidity in the marketplace, causing yields to go up higher and potentially force the Fed to restart its bond-buying program, he said.

    War abroad also could expand, including with the Israel-Hamas conflict, which could spark a flight to quality and push down U.S. bond yields.

    With that backdrop, Doty suggests adding duration in bonds
    BX:TMUBMUSD03M
    as longer-term yields rise above short-term yields, and the so-called Treasury yield curve gets steeper. “This is the time,” he said. Investors should “keep marching” out on the curve as it steepens.

    “Yields, in my mind, have been the main challenge for the equity market,” said Keith Lerner, chief markets strategist at Truist Advisory Services, while noting that stocks have been wobbly since the 10-year Treasury yield topped 4% in July.

    Lerner also said the near 17% drop in the powerful “Magnificent Seven” stocks, while notable, isn’t as bad as in some other S&P 500 index sectors, like real estate, were the retrenchment is closer to 20%.

    “We’ve had a pretty good reset,” he said, adding that lower stock prices provide investors with “somewhat better compensation” for the uncertainties ahead.

    “This is one of the most challenging investment environments we’ve seen in a long time,” said Cameron Brandt, director of research at EPFR, which tracks fund flows across asset classes.

    With that backdrop, he expects investors to keep more dry powder on hand through the end of this year than in the past.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA
    shed 2.1% for the week and closed at its lowest level since the March banking crisis. The S&P 500 lost 2.5% for the week and the Nasdaq Composite fell 2.6% for the week.

    Another big item on the calendar for next week, beyond the Treasury borrowing announcement and Fed decision Wednesday is the Labor Department’s October jobs report due Friday.

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  • Oil falls, markets hold steady as Israel launches Gaza ground offensive

    Oil falls, markets hold steady as Israel launches Gaza ground offensive

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    Oil futures dropped Sunday night as markets saw a calm opening following Israel’s launch of a ground offensive in Gaza that drew implied threats from Iran amid market fears of a wider conflict that could disrupt global crude supplies.

    Oil declined as Israel “seems to be approaching the situation with caution, which has brought a sense of relief that the worst-case scenarios may not materialize,” said Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, in a note.

    Innes, however, said investors should remember “this is likely to be a long, drawn-out affair with many false dawns.”

    West Texas Intermediate crude for December delivery
    CL00,
    -1.51%

    CL.1,
    -1.51%

    CLZ23,
    -1.51%

    fell 93 cents, or 1%, to $84.61 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Sunday night. December Brent crude
    BRNZ23,
    -1.34%
    ,
    the global benchmark, was off $1, or 1.1%, at $89.48 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, dipping back below the $90-a-barrel threshold.

    Oil futures jumped nearly 3% on Friday, but suffered weekly declines, eroding the modest risk premium priced into the market.

    Read: 4 reasons why oil prices have only seen a modest Middle East risk premium

    Israeli solders had moved at least two miles deep into the Gaza Strip as of Sunday, the Wall Street Journal reported, after beginning a delayed ground incursion into the enclave aimed at routing Hamas following its Oct, 7 attack on southern Israel that left more than 1,400 dead and saw more than 200 Israelis taken hostage.

    A sustained bombardment of the densely populated Gaza Strip by Israel has resulted in more than 8,000 casualties, according to Palestinian authorities. Israel has been under pressure by the U.S. and others to minimize civilian casualties.

    U.S. stock-index futures ticked higher, with S&P 500 futures
    ES00,
    +0.32%

    up 0.3%, while futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    YM00,
    +0.20%

    added 68 points, or 0.2%.

    The biggest worry among investors is a conflict that sees Iran become more directly involved. Iranian crude exports have rebounded from lows seen after the Trump administration withdrew the U.S. from a nuclear accord with Tehran and reimposed sanctions in 2018.

    A renewed crackdown on Iran could take up to 1 million barrels a day of crude off the market, while a spiraling conflict could see Tehran threaten transportation chokepoints, particularly the Strait of Hormuz, or otherwise attack infrastructure in the region, while driving up a fear premium.

    Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi, in a post on X written in English, said Saturday that Israel had “crossed the red lines, which may force everyone to take action.”

    U.S. warplanes on Friday struck two locations in eastern Syria, which the Pentagon said were linked to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps, following a string of attacks on U.S. air bases in the region that started last week.

    U.S. stocks are poised to book another round of monthly losses as October draws to an end, though pressure has been attributed largely to a surge in Treasury yields. The S&P 500
    SPX
    last week joined the Nasdaq Composite
    COMP
    in correction territory, while the Dow
    DJIA
    is down more than 2% year to date.

    The rise in yields, which move opposite price, has come as U.S. government debt has failed to attract its usual haven-related buying amid rising Mideast tensions.

    See: Israel-Hamas war sees investors shun most traditional havens, except for these two

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  • WSJ News Exclusive | Hedge Fund Two Sigma Is Hit by Trading Scandal

    WSJ News Exclusive | Hedge Fund Two Sigma Is Hit by Trading Scandal

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    A researcher at Two Sigma Investments adjusted the hedge fund’s investing models without authorization, the firm has told clients, leading to losses in some funds, big gains in others and fresh regulatory scrutiny.

    The researcher, Jian Wu, a senior vice president at New York-based Two Sigma, was trying to boost his compensation, Two Sigma has told clients, without identifying Wu. He made changes over the past year that resulted in a total of $620 million in unexpected gains and losses, according to people close to the matter and investor letters. Two Sigma has placed Wu on administrative leave.

    Copyright ©2023 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

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  • Financial advisers make rich people richer. But is that all there is?

    Financial advisers make rich people richer. But is that all there is?

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    In 1989, author Marsha Sinetar wrote a bestselling book, “Do What You Love, The Money Will Follow.” She urges readers to pursue a career that stokes their passion.

    Many advisers take that advice. They love what they do. And the money follows: Median pay for U.S. financial advisers was $95,390 in 2022, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

    Lately, though, the passion is waning for some advisers. They still love the practice of wealth management — customizing financial plans, constructing client portfolios and analyzing the ever-growing menu of investment products.

    They’re just not as enamored of their clients’ wealth. Reassuring wealthy retirees that they can afford to buy a second (or third) vacation home has its merits. But helping them accumulate more and more wealth rings hollow after awhile.

    Steve Oniya, a Houston-based certified financial planner, works with a diverse mix of clients. He enjoys helping them achieve their goals, regardless of their net worth. “It’s more gratifying helping them get over some hurdles to get to the life that they really want,” he said. “You make more of an impact that way.”

    He compares his work to a firefighter’s job. Some days, they rescue people from burning buildings. Other days, they put out a dumpster fire. Yet they’re always driven to excel and perform at a high level.

    Nevertheless, if an adviser serves rich clients who hoard their money, don’t give to charity and lack perspective on what matters most in life, a day at the office can feel dispiriting. “Sometimes advisers may be passionately opposed to certain clients’ values,” Oniya said. “In those instances, end the relationship or limit the scope.”

    Oniya said he does not find clients’ wealth objectionable. He sees his role as an ally who seeks to understand — and not judge — others’ beliefs and values.

    “I like to stay in the neutral camp,” Oniya said. “It’s easy to empathize with another person and see they are a person who needs help just like others. We’re generally here to advise them on how to be more efficient and effective financially in attaining their goals.”

    The arc of an adviser’s career comes into play as well. To build a practice, newly minted financial planners might welcome pretty much anyone with sufficient assets.

    Once they establish a stable book of business, advisers may get picky in deciding whom to serve. Their onboarding process might get more rigorous in an effort to determine if they’re aligned with a potential client’s aspirations, goals and priorities.

    Some advisers shift gears as they gain experience working with different types of clients. They come to realize what they like most about the job and adjust their practice — and the type of clients they serve — accordingly.

    “Everyone evolves,” said Angeli Gianchandani, a professor of marketing at University of New Haven’s Pompea College of Business. “Advisers may see there’s a greater reward and opportunity helping people in a different income bracket.”

    As a self-test, advisers at a career crossroads might want to ask themselves how they’d respond to two clients. The first one says, “You saved me $5 million. Now I want to save $10 million to buy a bigger yacht.”

    The other says, “You helped me pay off my student debt” or “You helped me save enough for a down payment to buy my first house.”

    “You may feel more valued and appreciated as an adviser” if you pave the way for someone who lacks vast wealth to build a nest egg for the future, Gianchandani says.

    Advisers who have misgivings about helping wealthy people attain greater wealth are not alone. Brooke Harrington, a sociology professor at Dartmouth College, interviewed 65 wealth managers between 2007 and 2015. About one-quarter expressed qualms about helping lower ultra-wealthy clients’ tax liabilities.

    Still, another 25% did not feel such qualms. They saw their role as defending their clients from an unjust tax code.

    More: Wall Street legend Byron Wien dies at 90. Here are his ’20 life lessons’

    Also read: The IRS is auditing the rich. Can you fly under the radar if you’re not wealthy?

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