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Tag: Interest Rates

  • RIP BSBY: Bloomberg to shut down its lagging Libor replacement

    RIP BSBY: Bloomberg to shut down its lagging Libor replacement

    A Bloomberg spokesperson said the discontinuation of BSBY, which lagged in the race to succeed the defunct Libor rate, was the result of the “limited” commercial opportunities.

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    Bloomberg L.P. says it’s shutting down its BSBY interest rate benchmark, marking a quiet end to the data provider’s attempt to offer a successor to the defunct London Interbank Offered Rate.

    The end of Libor, which was once dominant in worldwide financial contracts but was phased out after a rate-rigging scandal, had brought about opportunities for new benchmarks. Bloomberg’s goal was to have some chunk of loans between banks and their borrowers refer to BSBY, an interest rate that would go up or down depending on broader financing conditions.

    But the rate failed to gain much traction over the last couple of years, as the Secured Overnight Financing Rate was cemented as Libor’s successor in the United States. Another competitor called Ameribor says it’s pressing on, though its usage is more prominent at smaller banks than at larger institutions.

    BSBY had the backing of some regional and national banks — most notably Bank of America — but U.S. banks and their borrowers didn’t rush to adopt the rate at the scale that it needed.

    Few observers ever expected BSBY to be as widely used as SOFR, the benchmark that major market participants coalesced on through a Libor transition group convened by U.S. regulators. But some market watchers had foreseen a small role for BSBY, which would have given banks and borrowers another option.

    Instead, Bloomberg announced this month the “permanent cessation” of the BSBY index starting on Nov. 15, 2024. Borrowers and the holders of other contracts that refer to BSBY have a year to prepare for its expiration.

    In a statement, a Bloomberg spokesperson attributed the decision to the relatively low usage of BSBY.

    “The scope of commercial opportunities for BSBY and its usage within financial products is limited, resulting in the decision to discontinue publication of the rate,” the company spokesperson said.

    Bank of America, which used BSBY in loans to several publicly traded companies, declined to comment.

    It didn’t help that at least some financial regulators weren’t thrilled about the use of BSBY as a benchmark.

    Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Gary Gensler was particularly combative, warning in September 2021 that “a crisis will reveal BSBY’s flaws all too clearly.” Banking regulators were more open to the usage of BSBY and other alternatives to SOFR in loan contracts. Still, they have continually highlighted SOFR’s strengths and thus indirectly nudged the industry toward that rate.

    Criticisms of BSBY added a feeling of “risk and grayness” over its usage, making it even tougher to gain momentum, said Edward Ivey, a lawyer and head of the derivative and swaps practice at Moore & Van Allen.

    BSBY also faced other challenges, Ivey said.

    Early in the transition away from Libor, the SOFR benchmark lacked a forward-looking term option that gave the borrower a clear number they’d pay for the next 30 days or another period. Borrowers seeking a forward-looking rate could find one in BSBY, which helped its proponents to make their case. But once a “term SOFR” option became available, the case for BSBY got a bit weaker, Ivey said.

    Another difficulty was a BSBY-related derivatives market that never really took off.

    In theory, borrowers whose loans referred to the Bloomberg-backed index could hedge the risk of BSBY rising or falling in the derivatives markets — essentially swapping out the risk of a change in interest rates with another party.

    But since few loans used BSBY, there weren’t many market participants who made those bets. The lack of players in the market made it more expensive for potential BSBY borrowers who wanted to swap their risks, making it less attractive to take on a BSBY loan in the first place.

    SOFR, by contrast, is based on roughly $1 trillion in daily transactions, and it is far easier to hedge risks related to the more popular benchmark. The SOFR index is based on the cost of borrowing cash overnight while putting up U.S. Treasury securities as collateral — a repurchase transaction, or “repo,” that’s critical to the global financial system.

    The repo market is not immune to hiccups — rates shot up in 2019 during a brief period of volatility. But the transactions are generally viewed as exceedingly safe, and their interest rates don’t change much in times of stress.

    Years ago, many regional banks pushed back on the adoption of SOFR, saying that the industry needed a rate that would reflect financial stresses in real time. When credit conditions are tight, interest rates go up, and the banks were seeking an option that reflected that relationship.

    Libor was a credit-sensitive rate and thus spiked during times of financial market stress — such as in 2008 and 2020 — which gave banks more compensation to make up for larger risks. But the rate was merely an estimate developed by a handful of bankers in London, and its subjective nature opened it up to the rigging that led to its demise.

    BSBY was based on actual transactions, not estimates, from more than 30 larger U.S. banks, though Gensler argued that the pool of transactions was too small, giving BSBY some Libor-like flaws.

    The SEC chairman has not publicly said anything similar about Ameribor, another credit-sensitive rate that reflects the cost of bank-to-bank lending on a platform called the American Financial Exchange. The Ameribor rate, which is based on transactions made among hundreds of banks, has gained some traction among smaller banks and has sought to add more banks to its platform.

    John Shay, CEO of the American Financial Exchange, said in a statement after BSBY’s announcement that the “AFX marketplace and supporters of AMERIBOR are undaunted.” The company’s website says “one size does not fit all” and argues that Ameribor gives banks a credit-sensitive choice that reflects their “own unique local conditions.”

    “Things are changing rapidly, and our early adopters understand this and are responding to it,” Shay said. “Our hope is to draw in more liquidity providers while providing technological improvements that further streamline the trading process.”

    Polo Rocha

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  • Wells Fargo unveils 2024 target, warns of ‘really, really sloppy’ first half for stocks

    Wells Fargo unveils 2024 target, warns of ‘really, really sloppy’ first half for stocks

    Wells Fargo Securities is officially out with its 2024 stock market forecast.

    Chris Harvey, the firm’s head of equity strategy, sees a volatile path to his S&P 500 to 4,625 year-end target.

    “It’s really hard to get excited. If we have better [economic] growth, then the Fed doesn’t do anything,” he told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Monday. “If we have worse growth, then numbers are going to come down and then the Fed will eventually cut. The second half will be better, but the first half is going to be really, really sloppy.”

    Harvey’s target is just 75 points above Monday’s S&P 500’s close.

    “Can we go higher from here? Sure, we can go a little bit higher. But I just don’t think you can go a ton higher,” he said. “People have talked about 5,000. I don’t see how you get to that level.”

    In his official 2024 outlook note, Harvey told clients to brace for a “trader’s market” instead of a “buy-and-hold situation.” His early year strategy: Start with a risk-averse stance.

    “The VIX [CBOE Volatility Index] is up 13. Every time we’ve gone into a new year with the VIX at 13, we’ve seen spikes. We’ve seen the equity market pull back, and it’s just not a great setup into 2024,” Harvey added.

    He warns the higher cost of capital is an additional market problem because it prevents multiples from going higher.

    “As long as the cost of capital stays higher, it’s really hard for me to get to a much higher price target,” Harvey said.

    Yet, he still sees opportunities for investors.

    “What we want to do is we want to go to the places that are oversold. We just upgraded utilities today. We upgraded health care,” Harvey noted. “Those are areas that have good valuations, decent fundamentals and most people really aren’t there at this point.”

    ‘I hate to say that as being head of equity strategy’

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  • Goldman says ‘shine is returning’ for gold as investors ramp up bets on rate cuts

    Goldman says ‘shine is returning’ for gold as investors ramp up bets on rate cuts

    Ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold are placed in a workroom at Novosibirsk Refining Plant, Russia on September 15, 2023.

    Alexander Manzyuk | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images

    Gold prices on Monday rose to a more than six-month high as the U.S. dollar weakened and investors firmed up bets that the Federal Reserve is done with interest rate hikes.

    Spot gold was up 0.52% at $2,012.39 per ounce at 1:47 p.m. London time, but reached a May 16 high of $2,017.82 earlier in the day, Reuters reported. Gold futures for December hit $2,018.9, the highest level since Oct. 27, according to CNBC calculations.

    The dollar index, a measurement of the greenback against major currencies, was 0.13% lower as markets price in a more than 90% chance the Fed will hold rates at its next two meetings.

    CME’s FedWatch Tool shows a 25% probability of a cut as soon as March.

    A weaker dollar and lower interest rates are often flagged by market-watchers as boosting gold prices.

    Analysts at Goldman Sachs said in a note Sunday on the metals outlook for 2024 that gold’s “shine is returning.”

    “The potential upside in gold prices will be closely tied to U.S. real rates and dollar moves, but we also expect persistent strong consumer demand from China and India, alongside central bank buying to offset downward pressures from upside growth surprises and rate cut repricing,” they said.

    Bank of America analysts, meanwhile, said in a Sunday note that the commodities team’s base case was for gold to appreciate from the second quarter of 2024 as “real rates are pushed lower by the Fed cutting.”

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  • Inflation Gauges at 2021 Lows May Support End of Fed, ECB Hikes

    Inflation Gauges at 2021 Lows May Support End of Fed, ECB Hikes

    (Bloomberg) — Inflation gauges in the US and euro zone are set to show the smallest annual increases since early or mid-2021, reinforcing sentiment that interest rates won’t be raised again.

    Most Read from Bloomberg

    The Federal Reserve’s preferred measures will be published on Thursday, with the personal consumption expenditures price index seen rising 3.1% in October from a year ago. The core measure, which excludes food and fuel and is considered a better gauge of underlying inflation, is expected to have climbed 3.5%.

    Euro-region data for November, also due on Thursday, will probably show inflation at 2.7%, the lowest since July 2021. The underlying measure is seen slowing to 3.9%.

    Despite the disinflation progress, officials on both sides of the Atlantic insist they want to see more evidence to be sure that consumer prices are durably under control. On Friday, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said that “we’re certainly not declaring victory.”

    Fed officials are united around a strategy of being deliberate about the path for policy. Minutes of their last meeting showed that they took note of how higher rates were starting to squeeze households and businesses.

    The Fed on Wednesday will issue its Beige Book of economic conditions and anecdotes from across the country.

    The US personal income and spending report is also forecast to show only a slight advance in inflation-adjusted consumer outlays. The October downshift in demand help explain forecasts for a slowdown in the economy after a third-quarter growth spurt.

    What Bloomberg Economics Says:

    “The inflation impulse dulled in October, which should allow the Fed to stay on hold through year-end.”

    —Anna Wong, Stuart Paul, Eliza Winger and Estelle Ou, economists. For full analysis, click here

    The government issues its first revision to third-quarter gross domestic product on Wednesday, the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey calls for 5% growth. Initial estimate of corporate profits are also expected.

    Other US data in the coming week include October new-home sales, November consumer confidence, weekly jobless claims, and a key manufacturing survey.

    Further north, Canada will release third-quarter GDP data that will reveal whether it entered a recession, though economists reckon on at least minimal growth. Jobs numbers for November will be the last major data point before the Bank of Canada’s rate decision on Dec. 6.

    Elsewhere, the Paris-based OECD presents a new set of forecasts, Lagarde speaks to European lawmakers, and central banks from New Zealand to South Korea are expected to keep rates on hold.

    Click here for what happened last week and below is our wrap of what’s coming up in the global economy.

    Asia

    Central bank governors are expected to gather at the start of the week as part of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority’s global financial summit and Bank for International Settlements conference.

    Chinese purchasing manager indexes will start being published toward the end of the week, data to be closely watched by investors for signs of recovery in the world’s second-largest economy.

    The Bank of Korea is expected to hold rates steady on Thursday, though it continues to face a tricky policy environment where inflation remains sticky, growth weak and household debt on the rise.

    South Korea is also set to report on trade data Friday, one of the earliest looks into how global demand was holding up in November.

    The Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the Bank of Thailand are set to make their latest rate decisions on Wednesday, while India will report third quarter GDP the same day.

    A range of Asian countries will report on manufacturing PMI data on Friday, from India to Vietnam to Indonesia, giving a broader view into how the region’s economies are holding up.

    Bank of Japan board members will speak to business leaders and hold press conferences on Wednesday and Thursday, amid continued speculation over the timing for policy normalization.

    The country will also report on industrial production and retail sales data on Thursday, plus labor and business spending data on Friday, after figures showed the Japanese economy contracted in the third quarter.

    Europe, Middle East, Africa

    Testimony by Lagarde to the European Parliament on Monday will provide investors with something to trade on before the inflation data.

    Those numbers will arrive after a drip of national reports starting on Wednesday that are mostly expected to show a synchronized decline across major economies, albeit at divergent levels.

    While Spanish inflation probably accelerated, it’s seen weakening in France to 4.1%, and the outcome in Germany is also projected lower at 2.7%. Italian price increases are expected to decelerate markedly further below the ECB’s goal, to 1.1%.

    Friday may feature the release of several reports by ratings companies. Among them, S&P Global Ratings is scheduled to publish a view on France, and Scope Ratings could do the same for Italy.

    Meanwhile, the German government is struggling to hammer out a revised budget after a shock court ruling earlier this month.

    In the UK, several Bank of England policymakers are due to make appearances, including Governor Andrew Bailey, while it’s a quieter week for data.

    After Sweden’s Riksbank surprised investors on Thursday by halting rate increases, third-quarter GDP on Wednesday may reveal a recession. Economic weakness was one argument economists gave to keep borrowing costs on hold – although Governor Erik Thedeen hasn’t closed the door on another hike.

    On Friday, meanwhile, Swiss data could show that the economy returned to marginal growth during the same period after stalling in the prior three months.

    Turning east, Poland will publish inflation, seen staying at 6.6% — more than twice as much as in the neighboring euro region. GDP numbers in the Czech Republic may show a recession.

    In Israel, analysts expect the base rate to stay at 4.75% on Monday as the central bank continues supporting the currency. The shekel has recovered all losses since Israel’s war with Hamas began in early October, but officials may refrain from cutting rates until next year.

    The same day, Ghana, the world’s second-largest cocoa producer, is set to leave borrowing costs unchanged.

    Mauritius on Tuesday is also poised to hold rates steady as inflation has eased below the central bank’s 2% to 5% target range earlier than expected. And with inflation quickening again, gas-rich Mozambique is also likely to keep borrowing costs unchanged on Wednesday.

    Latin America

    Latin America has a light economic calendar in the coming week, with highlights to include mid-month consumer prices index in Brazil and an inflation report by Mexico’s central bank.

    Brazil’s mid-November inflation, due on Tuesday, is expected to further decelerate from a year ago, justifying the central bank’s pledge to deliver at least two more rate cuts of half a percentage point.

    Mexico releases its inflation report the following day. The document, which usually brings revisions to growth estimates, may shed light on the timing of a much-anticipated monetary easing cycle.

    The central bank has signaled that rate cuts are near, but the latest economic activity data, including third-quarter GDP figures released on Friday, showed Latin America’s second-largest economy is performing better than economists forecast.

    Read More: Mexico Cenbank Warns of Inflation Risks Amid Strong Demand

    Chile publishes a number of activity and production reports starting on Thursday, the most important being Friday’s Imacec index of economic activity for October. The indicator, considered a proxy for GDP, had its biggest gain in eight months in September, surprising economists.

    Also on Friday, Brazil releases industrial production for October, while Mexico publishes remittances data for the same month.

    –With assistance from Monique Vanek, Piotr Skolimowski, Yuko Takeo, Molly Smith and Laura Dhillon Kane.

    (Updates with German budget woes in EMEA section)

    Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek

    ©2023 Bloomberg L.P.

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  • US homebuyers are waiting for the Fed to start cutting interest rates. Here’s when 10 experts say it’s going to happen.

    US homebuyers are waiting for the Fed to start cutting interest rates. Here’s when 10 experts say it’s going to happen.

    The lack of homeowners selling their homes has contributed to a shortage of housing inventory.(Left) Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images, (Right) Getty Images

    • High mortgage rates make it difficult for prospective homebuyers to enter the market.

    • Mortgage rates could decline if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates next year.

    • Here are 10 projections from experts on when the Fed’s first rate cut will come.

    High mortgage rates have effectively frozen the US housing market. And while lower rates could be on the horizon, Americans might have to wait awhile.

    The average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is over 7%, up from roughly 3% at the beginning of 2022. This has deterred prospective first-time homebuyers from taking the plunge and made existing homeowners reluctant to sell their homes and buy another — they’d rather stick with the super-low rates they already locked in.

    Meanwhile, the lack of people selling their homes has contributed to a shortage of housing inventory and helped prop up prices, which may not drop anytime soon. While these factors serve as deterrents for prospective buyers, interest rates may not stay this high forever.

    The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates to combat inflation, but many experts predict it will move more cautiously — and perhaps even cut rates — over the next year, in response to slowing inflation and the prospect of a weakening US economy.

    While declining interest rates wouldn’t directly cause mortgage rates to fall, the two tend to move in the same direction. That’s why prospective homebuyers would be wise to keep tabs on when the Federal Reserve’s first interest-rate cut might come — even though rates are unlikely to return to what they were a few years ago.

    Business Insider compiled 10 expert predictions for when the first rate cut would come. The predictions are listed chronologically — experts who expect a rate cut to come soonest are listed first.

    February

    In August, Preston Caldwell, a Morningstar senior US economist, wrote in a note that he expected the Fed to start cutting interest rates in February.

    “The Fed will pivot to monetary easing as inflation falls back to its 2% target and the need to shore up economic growth becomes a top concern,” he wrote.

    By March of next year

    Earlier this month, a team led by UBS economist Arend Kapteyn and strategist Bhanu Baweja wrote in a research note that they expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates beginning next March.

    “One of the key features of UBS’s forecast is the very pronounced Fed easing cycle seen unfolding from March 2024 onwards,” they wrote.

    They added that the Fed’s cuts would be “a response to the forecasted US recession in Q2-Q3 2024 and the ongoing slowdown in both headline and core inflation.”

    Not before April

    In August, David Einhorn, the founder and president of the hedge fund Greenlight Capital, wrote that he didn’t expect the Fed to cut interest rates until next year.

    “We continue to believe that the market is over-anticipating rate cuts and we have extended that view through March of 2024,” he said.

    May 

    Following the release of August’s inflation report, KPMG US’s chief economist, Diane Swonk, wrote in a note that the Federal Reserve might not be done raising interest rates.

    “The Fed needs to see quarters, not months, of fundamentally cooler inflation to cut rates. We are not even close,” she wrote. “Our forecast for the first rate cut in May 2024 holds.”

    Separately, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, which calculates the odds of different Fed interest-rate moves based on what traders are doing in derivatives markets linked to those rates, there’s a 19% chance of a rate cut in March. In May, the odds jump to 82.3%.

    Between April and June

    In a September Reuters poll of 97 economists, the consensus prediction was that the Fed wouldn’t cut interest rates until the April to June period.

    “Tight labor and housing markets present upside risk to inflation,” Andrew Hollenhorst, the chief US economist at Citi, told Reuters. “That means that absent a recession, policymakers are likely to keep policy rates on hold well into 2024.”

    The 2nd quarter of 2024

    In a September “Goldman Sachs Exchanges” podcast episode, Goldman Sachs’ chief US economist, David Mericle, said he projected the Fed’s first interest-rate cut to be in the second quarter of 2024.

    “And so the best guess is that we’ll get back to 2%,” he said, regarding inflation. “But by no means are we definitively there or even close enough. So too soon to say that we’ve beaten this problem.”

    Between May and the end of 2024

    In September, economists from some of North America’s biggest banks said they expected the Fed to hold off on cutting rates until sometime between May and the end of next year.

    “Given both demonstrated and anticipated progress on inflation, the majority of the committee members believe that the Fed’s tightening cycle has run its course,” Simona Mocuta, the chief economist of State Street Global Advisors, said.

    The 2nd half of 2024

    In a September note, Vanguard’s global economics and markets team wrote that it didn’t expect the Fed to start cutting interest rates until the second half of 2024.

    “We believe the catalyst for easing would be either a recession or inflation falling while economic activity remains strong (a ‘soft landing’),” the team said.

    Later next year

    Jeff Morton, a portfolio manager at DWS Group, said in September that interest-rate cuts were unlikely to come until next year.

    “We have pushed back our cut forecast to later next year, at the pace of one cut per quarter barring any severe recession,” he said.

    Read the original article on Business Insider

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  • Is portability the cure to the mortgage market’s woes?

    Is portability the cure to the mortgage market’s woes?

    The Federal Housing Finance Agency said it is not currently exploring the feasibility of portable mortgages, but the fringe idea — already present in Canada and the U.K. — is gaining traction among some housing market watchers as a solution to the so-called interest rate lock-in effect.

    Bloomberg News

    With mortgage lending ground to a halt in the face of rising interest rates, many in and around the banking and real estate industries are looking for ways to unlock the market. Some say the answer lies to the north — in Canada.

    These market participants say many of the sector’s woes could be resolved if U.S. lenders and regulators emulated their peers in Canada and some other advanced economies by allowing homeowners to carry mortgages with them from one property to another. 

    Mortgage portability is a feature available to borrowers in Canada as well as Australia, the United Kingdom and other countries. It allows them to retain the deal, the interest rate or — in some cases — the entire loan after selling one home and buying another. 

    If brought to the U.S. today, Andy Heart, CEO of North Carolina-based Delegate Advisors and a former banker, said this option would remove the “golden handcuffs” from homeowners who — despite continued property value appreciation — are unwilling or unable to foot the bill for new mortgages should they move. 

    “That low-cost mortgage becomes low-cost housing for the remaining term of that mortgage,” Heart said. “It’s like all of a sudden you’ve turned your biggest liability into your biggest asset.”

    Yet, while the adoption of portability would benefit existing homeowners and potentially boost the broader for-sale housing industry, some policy experts say the shift would create more problems than it would solve.

    Mark Calabria, the former head of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, said incentivizing borrowers to hold their loans longer would amplify risks for any entity with mortgages or mortgage-backed securities on their balance sheets.

    “It’s a fair amount of interest rate risk you’re taking on,” Calabria said. “Pre-record low rates, pre-pandemic, the typical 30-year mortgage only really was around for about seven years before people refinanced or prepaid. Portable means, from the lender’s perspective, that 30-year [mortgage] may actually turn into 30 years.”

    Proponents of portability argue that duration risk is baked into the origination or purchase of a 30-year mortgage. Anyone engaged in the space, they say, when interest rates were at record lows during and following the COVID-19 pandemic should have hedged against the risk of slower repayment times. 

    “Whether it’s a five-year mortgage or whether it’s a 30-year mortgage, you’re still doing the same job from an interest rate risk management perspective. Duration of the instrument doesn’t matter to me, you should be understanding that the price volatility and sensitivity of your earnings to a change in interest rates is higher when the duration is longer,” Heart said. “I don’t have a lot of sympathy for people who didn’t do the job on the asset-liability matching front.”

    But industry participants note that they do incorporate interest rate volatility into their underwriting, but they have done so under the current regime, which does not allow for portability. 

    Christopher Maher, CEO of Toms River, New Jersey-based OceanFirst Bank, said the U.S. mortgage market is directed by the government-sponsored enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which dictate the standards mortgages must meet to be eligible for purchase and securitization. They also set expectations for investors in mortgage-backed securities, one of which is that all qualifying mortgages have a due-on-sale clause, requiring loans to be satisfied when a property is sold.

    Maher said the GSEs could change their standards to allow for portability, but doing so would have to be done carefully so as not to disrupt the markets that supported the low-cost, long-term mortgages in question.

    “Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are still in conservatorship, so the owning investor there is the U.S. government,” he said. “If they were motivated to do something [with portability], they would have an opportunity, but I think it’d be a very complicated thing for them to figure out.”

    A spokesperson for the Federal Housing Finance Agency, the entity that oversees the GSE conservatorship, said it is not exploring mortgage portability at this time.

    Mortgage portability as a solution to a lack of housing supply remains a fringe theory; no policymaker, regulator or industry group is championing the cause. But the concept has made its way into various corners of the housing finance landscape.

    Pete Mills, senior vice president of residential policy and member engagement at the Mortgage Bankers’ Association, said the trade group is exploring the potential impact of portable mortgages in response to an uptick in member inquiries. Specifically, the MBA is looking into the “legal, constitutional and investor implications” of the practice. 

    Allowing borrowers to port their mortgages would necessitate a host of procedural changes in the mortgage sector. Processes would have to be developed to handle mortgages while they are being transferred from one property to another and appraising newly purchased properties. Some speculate the change could shift the focus of underwriting away from the collateral value of underlying properties to the creditworthiness of individual borrowers. There’s also a matter of establishing a fee structure for porting. 

    There would also be unknown implications on mortgage-backed securities. While some fear a sweeping change in mortgage terms would be detrimental to mortgage-backed securities holders, some research — including a study from the analytics firm MSCI this past summer — suggests portability could be a boon to valuations.

    Skeptics of portability are quick to point out that the U.S. housing finance system differs significantly from other markets.

    In Canada, for example, most mortgages have five-year terms amortized over 25 years, meaning they must be renewed, refinanced or sold off every five years. Unlike the 30-year mortgage seen in the U.S., borrowers face a prepayment penalty if they sell their home and pay off a mortgage before their term is up. 

    “The resulting penalty could wipe out tens of thousands of dollars from the proceeds of the sale,” said Clay Jarvis, a Canadian real estate and mortgage expert with the personal finance firm Nerdwallet. “But if you port, prepayment charges shouldn’t be an issue because you’re technically not breaking your mortgage.”

    While portability is meant to offset the challenges created by Canada’s five-year term regime, Jarvis noted that not all mortgages are portable. Variable rate loans and certain restrict-rate mortgages cannot be ported. Also, he said the feature is not widely known or used by homeowners in the country. 

    Much of the debate over whether the U.S. should adopt mortgage portability centers on the degree to which the so-called lock-in effect that has gripped the housing market will reshape mortgage borrower activity and for how long.

    According to the home listing company Redfin, more than 90% of homeowners have a mortgage rate below 6%, including 82% with 5% or less and 63% with rates below 4%. Rates are currently more than 7.5% after peaking above 8% in October. As a result, home sales volumes and mortgage originations have cratered to their lowest levels in 10 and 20 years, respectively.

    Portability advocates say these dynamics could lead many borrowers to hold mortgages for their full terms anyway. They argue that portability would create more lending opportunities in the form of second-lien mortgages to make up the gap between the values of the existing mortgage and the new home. 

    Some banks and other lenders, on the other hand, would rather wait out the current conditions and see how prepayment rates evolve. Maher said eventually consumers will adapt to higher rates and homeowners will encounter reasons to give up ultra-low rate mortgages.

    “Time has a way of marching on, and we’ve already been in this higher rate environment for more than a year now,” Maher said. “Eventually, people will make life decisions to sell their homes and give up 3% mortgages for a variety of reasons.”

    Others who are active in the housing space say the option is a needed solution for the housing sector. Drew Uher, CEO of HomeLight, a tech platform that connects real estate agencies with buyers and sellers, said the shift would benefit individual homeowners as well as the various industries that have been decimated by the sharp drop in transaction activities. 

    “Mortgage portability is not only an opportunity for consumers to rejoin the housing market, but also sets up a unique opportunity for real estate professionals — specifically real estate agents and lenders — to continue to grow their businesses and be at the center of the transaction,” Uher said. “There needs to be innovation for agents and lenders to offer this solution to their clients to support the restabilization of the market as well, as they guide clients towards smarter financial decisions and homeownership.”

    Heart said the shift to portability would have to be initiated by Congress and implemented by federal regulators, but he noted there is precedent for such a shift. He points to reforms enacted after the Savings and Loan Crisis of the 1980s and ’90s that made commercial loans on bank balance sheets liquid, a move that facilitated the creation of the senior secured loan market. 

    He argues that such policies should be politically feasible given the benefits to consumers and the broader economy.

    “Who wouldn’t want to go into the ’24 election saying, ‘Hey, by the way, I voted to give you low-cost housing for the next 20 to 30 years, thank you very much,’” Heart said.

    Kyle Campbell

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  • Turkish interest rates jump to 40% as central bank gets tough on inflation

    Turkish interest rates jump to 40% as central bank gets tough on inflation

    Turkey’s central bank raised interest rates to 40% on Thursday, delivering a bigger-than-expected hike that sparked a rally in the lira.

    Battling inflation that it sees running at an annual pace of 65% by the end of the year and 36% by the end of 2024, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) increased its one-week repo rate by 500 basis points from 35%.

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  • Mortgage demand jumps to six-week high as interest rates continue to drop

    Mortgage demand jumps to six-week high as interest rates continue to drop

    Mortgage demand is finally crawling out of the basement as interest rates continue to move lower.

    Total application volume increased 3% last week from the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index.

    The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($726,200 or less) decreased to 7.41% from 7.61% and points decreased to 0.62 from 0.67 (including the origination fee) for loans with a 20% down payment.

    “U.S. bond yields continued to move lower as incoming data signaled a softer economy and more signs of cooling inflation. Most mortgage rates in our survey decreased, with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate decreasing to the lowest rate in two months,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s deputy chief economist. “Mortgage applications increased to their highest level in six weeks, but remain at very low levels.”

    Applications to refinance a home loan increased 2% for the week and were just 4% lower than the same week one year ago. Rates today are about 75 basis points higher than they were a year ago, but more than twice what they were two years ago when there was a massive refinance boom. Most homeowners with mortgages today have rates far lower than they would get now.

    Applications for a mortgage to purchase a home increased 4% week to week but were still 20% lower than one year ago.

    “The average loan size on a purchase application was $403,600, the lowest since January 2023. This is consistent with other sources of home sales data showing a gradually increasing first-time homebuyer share,” Kan added.

    While mortgage demand is moving slightly higher off historic lows, the housing market is still extremely weak. October sales of existing homes dropped to the lowest level in 13 years, according to a new report from the National Association of Realtors.

    Mortgage rates moved slightly lower this week, but analysts are not expecting any major moves in the near future.

    “The market has clearly shifted gears into holiday mode with light volume and liquidity greasing the skids for random volatility without any fundamental justification,” wrote Matthew Graham, chief operating officer of Mortgage News Daily.

    Don’t miss these stories from CNBC PRO:

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  • With inflation cooling and AI hitting its stride, stocks are on the cusp of a record-setting ‘roaring 2020s,’ Ed Yardeni says

    With inflation cooling and AI hitting its stride, stocks are on the cusp of a record-setting ‘roaring 2020s,’ Ed Yardeni says

    The stock market took a breather on Tuesday, paring some of its gains after a six-day rally pushed the S&P 500 above 4,500 for the first time since July. But Ed Yardeni, founder of Yardeni Research, believes there’s more upside ahead for investors. “A move up to match the record high is conceivable either by yearend or sometime early next year,” he wrote in a Monday note to clients.

    The veteran market watcher has been bullish all year, arguing that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes will tame inflation without sparking a job-killing recession—an outcome known as a “soft landing.” He even placed a 4,600 year-end price target on the S&P 500 at the start of the year when many investment banks were nervous about the potential impact of rising rates on corporate earnings (Wall Street’s average price target was just 4,050). 

    Now, Yardeni, who spent decades leading investment strategy teams at Deutsche Bank and other Wall Street giants, says that even his 4,600 target might have been “too conservative.” While the Fed’s interest rate hikes have dramatically increased borrowing costs for businesses and consumers since March of 2022, the job market, consumer spending, and industrial output have proven their resilience—and, with inflation fading, there’s no need for further rate hikes, he said. 

    “The economy is growing despite the Fed’s tightening,” he wrote. “Fed officials believe that they can stop raising the federal funds rate if inflation continues to cool and economic growth continues to slow, which is exactly what’s happening.”

    Yardeni pointed to the flat October reading in the Coincident Economic Indicators (CEI) index, which measures current economic activity, as his evidence that the economy is cooling down but not breaking under the weight of rising rates. “The slowdown in the CEI is consistent with our soft-landing scenario,” he wrote.

    Just as inflation is coming down, Yardeni notes, technological innovations like AI are set to create a productivity boom in the coming years, which could lead to a decade of growth and outsized returns in the market. “The stock market’s vertical rally since October 27 (the latest correction low) is more consistent with our technology-and-productivity led Roaring 2020s scenario,” he wrote.

    Two recent cooler-than-expected inflation reports, falling oil and gasoline prices, and surprisingly strong gross domestic product gross domestic product growth have many experts feeling bullish this holiday season.

    James Demmert, chief investment officer at Main Street Research, also told Fortune late last week that he believes both inflation and the Fed’s interest rate hiking campaign are “finished.” We’ve entered a new bull market that will be led by AI stocks like Microsoft and the chipmakers Nvidia and AMD, he argued. And UBS Global Wealth Management’s Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer of the Americas, said she, too, expects stocks to continue their rally this year.

    “The S&P 500’s latest earnings season pointed to a return to profit growth after three quarters of contraction,” Marcelli wrote in a note to clients Monday. “Our base case is for further modest equity gains in 2024, with the S&P 500 Index ending the year around 4,700.”

    However, she warned that there are a lot of potential threats to the stock market party out there. If there is any sign that inflation is reheating, the markets “could be unsettled” by the prospect of further rate hikes.

    “The wars between Russia and Ukraine and between Israel and Hamas both have the potential to trigger volatility,” Marcelli added. “And the US presidential election takes place against a background of an increasingly dysfunctional budget process.”

    Subscribe to the CFO Daily newsletter to keep up with the trends, issues, and executives shaping corporate finance. Sign up for free.

    Will Daniel

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  • How Canadians can save money on gas, grocery, cellphone and other home bills – MoneySense

    How Canadians can save money on gas, grocery, cellphone and other home bills – MoneySense

    Electricity and hydro savings tip: Are the lights on?

    You already turn off the lights when you leave a room or turn down the thermostat at night, right? In addition to that, Barry Walker, residential business development manager for efficiencyns.ca, says to check lightbulb packaging for LED wattage: “For example, it may read seven watts LED and say it’s equivalent to 60 watts of an incandescent light. So you’re only using a fraction of the energy to get the same amount of light.” He says that can save you 25% of the cost of lighting on your electricity bill. 

    Other cheap and cheerful ways to save on lighting and other energy costs: Buy motion sensors, smart power bars and electrical timers. “These are small things, but they’re inexpensive and they will pay for themselves very, very quickly.”

    Electricity and hydro savings tip: Consider a heat pump

    The biggest cost on Candians’ electricity bills is home heating, and heat pumps are becoming popular among Canadians because of government incentives to help with the costs. Walker installed a heat pump 20 years ago to replace his oil and electric heating in his 60-plus-year-old home in Halifax. “I’m a good old Scotsman and I kept every bill—my total energy costs dropped 40%,” he says. “I use thermal storage for my backup, and that heat pump is paying for itself three-fold now.” 

    Water savings tip: Get efficient 

    Plus, the heat pump can help save on the second biggest cost on your electricity: hot water. “Your payback will depend largely on the volume of hot water your household uses,” Walker says. “If you’ve got teenagers taking three showers a day, then the payback on that heat pump hot water tank will be fairly quick.” If a heat pump is too big of a commitment, you can opt for a more energy efficient hot water heater (even if you rent yours), says Walker. 

    Also, use cold water detergent to wash clothes and check for leaky taps. If you pay for municipal water, where you pay based on how much you use, that could be a sinkful of money a day going down the drain, he says. 

    How to save on internet and cable bills: Renegotiate service agreements

    Renegotiate or bundle internet and cable services, and examine your home insurance and auto insurance, suggests Scorgie. Also talk about usage, too. You might be in the wrong plan, as things have changed since 2020, and you might not need as much as you did during the lockdowns. Keehn says: “That’s hundreds of dollars a year. People may say, ‘But I’m going to have to sit on hold with the phone company for hours.’ Maybe you will, but just sit on hold while you’re watching Netflix,” she suggests. (Speaking of Netflix, here are the best streaming services in Canada.)

    How to save on cell phone bills: Check your bill and cut what you don’t need

    Check your phone bill: Has a signup bonus promotion expired because you forgot to renew it, resulting in higher fees? Are you paying for directory listings you don’t use? Those charges add up, notes Keehn. Also, look into family plans and getting rid of services you don’t use, like international calls for example. Also, in your settings, check for the apps that are running in the background, which can eat up a ton of data unknowingly when you’re out and about not connected to wifi. 

    How to save on car expenses and maintenance

    We don’t need to tell you that owning a vehicle is expensive. There’s maintenance, gas and more.

    Wendy Helfenbaum

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  • Stocks are entering the next leg of the bull market and the S&P 500 can hit a record-high of 5,000 by end of 2024, veteran strategist says

    Stocks are entering the next leg of the bull market and the S&P 500 can hit a record-high of 5,000 by end of 2024, veteran strategist says

    The bull market in stocks could even run on until 2026 if business and fiscal conditions align, one market veteran says.Reuters / Paulo Whitaker

    • The S&P 500 could be on track to notch a new record next year, according to market vet Phil Orlando.

    • The Federated Hermes chief stock strategist said the Fed was likely done with its rate hikes.

    • That means the second leg of the bull market has room to run on into 2024, he predicted.

    The bull market in stocks has more room to run, and it could take the S&P 500 to a new high by the end of next year, one market veteran says.

    That’s the thesis of Phil Orlando, the chief equity strategist at Federated Hermes. Orlando sees the S&P 500 surging to 5,000 by the end of 2024, representing an upside of around 10% from the benchmark index’s current levels.

    “We think that stocks are going to grind higher. They’ve gone from 4100 to 4500. And we think that’s a trend that’s got legs,” Orlando said in an interview with Bloomberg Surveillance on Monday.

    His optimism comes largely because he thinks the Fed is done hiking interest rates. Central bankers have already raised rates 525 basis points over the last 20 months to lower inflation, a move that hammered stocks in 2022.

    But inflation has cooled dramatically from its highs last summer. Prices rose just 3.2% year-per-year in October, lower than the expected 3.3% increase, the Consumer Price Index report showed last week.

    The case for the Fed to stop interest rate hikes is also supported by the recent surge in bond yields, with the yield on the 10-year US Treasury briefly surpassing 5% last month. Higher bond yields influence other interest rates in the economy, which have also helped tighten financial conditions.

    “The bond market’s done the heavy lifting for [the Fed] since the last Fed rate hike in July,” Orlando said on Bloomberg. “That gives the Fed the luxury, in my view, to step back and say, you know what, we don’t have to hike any more. We can just sit here on the sidelines for the next year and allow the gradual slowing of inflation to occur.”

    Markets are now pricing in an 81% chance the Fed could cut rates in the first half of next year, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

    Equities have been rallying in November as investors assess the more positive outlook for rates. The S&P 500 has climbed 7% over the past month, trading around 4,535 on Monday. That rally could even continue into 2025 and 2026, Orlando said, especially if the upcoming election cycle encourages more market-friendly business and fiscal policies.

    Read the original article on Business Insider

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  • What to expect for GICs in 2024 – MoneySense

    What to expect for GICs in 2024 – MoneySense

    The point? If a GIC investor is looking to lock in a good long-term interest rate, they may want to consider some bond exposure as well to diversify. If rates do in fact fall, bonds could do very well.

    Regardless, for a conservative investor, earning a return in the 6% range from a GIC is pretty enticing.

    Tax paid on GIC returns in 2024

    If you’re buying a GIC or bond in a tax-sheltered account, the tax implications do not matter. Interest income in a registered retirement savings plan (RRSP) or tax-free savings account (TFSA) is tax-free, although RRSP withdrawals are eventually taxable.

    If you are considering a GIC in a taxable account like a personal non-registered account or a corporate investment account, tax is a factor.

    If an Ontario investor with $100,000 of income earns a dollar of interest income, they pay a marginal tax rate on that dollar of about 31%. So, buying a 6% GIC leaves only about 4.1% after tax.

    If that same investor bought Canadian stocks and earned a 6% return with 2% from dividends and 4% from capital gains, selling after a year, the tax would be less. The tax rate on the dividend income would be about 9% and on the capital gain would be about 16%. The after-tax return would be about 5.2%, over 1% higher than the GIC investor earning the same 6%.

    Depending on the dollar value of the GIC or stock, the income could push the investor into a higher tax bracket than the marginal rates referenced above, but the outcome would be similar, with stocks being more tax efficient. The tax savings for stocks over GICs would also apply in other provinces.

    As a result, a stock investor could earn a lower rate of return than a GIC investor in a taxable account and still keep more of their after-tax return. Stocks generally return more than GICs or bonds over the long run, despite the year to year volatility. This is an important consideration for a GIC investor when tax is considered. After all, it is your after-tax return that really matters.

    Jason Heath, CFP

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  • Is Canada in a recession? A look at the state of our economy – MoneySense

    Is Canada in a recession? A look at the state of our economy – MoneySense

    When will the Bank of Canada lower interest rates?

    Soon, said Donald, soon. She went on to suggest the BoC will cut interest rates in early 2024. “Probably in Q1 or Q2, and we’re ahead of the pack on that one. The [U.S. Federal Reserve] could be cutting interest rates by mid-year.” Those of us looking to buy a home or renew their mortgage will be very happy to see a change in mortgage rates in Canada.

    Photo of Bill Morneau by Joseph Michael Photography

    What about fiscal policy? 

    Morneau was the PMAC conference’s lunchtime keynote speaker. When asked about the state of the economy, he said: “I wasn’t surprised by the continued strong performance in the U.S. economy. And that, I think, is at least a positive indicator.” He added that a recession will drag on in both Canada and the United States, and that the government is feeling pressured to take action on spending and keep up with services.

    “What the government needs to do is to make sure that, fiscally, it’s acting in a prudent fashion,” Morneau said. “From my perspective, I don’t think it’s time for introducing new programs. I think it’s time to carefully open the world’s expenditures.”

    Do Canadians have enough savings?

    That depends. Not just on who you ask, but also the numbers you look at, said Donald. “One of the reasons why we have not yet experienced a recession in the United States, and why it’s been slow in Canada, is because apparently there was excess savings everywhere,” she said. “Here’s the dirty little secret: we actually have no idea how much excess savings is in the system.” The ranges in reports go from $0 to USD$1.5 trillion, and that’s because there are no historical models for what’s happening right now, and none applicable to the current state of the economy.

    There are Canadians concerned about their current finances and having enough savings, as well as the ability to save for retirement. Low-risk investments like guaranteed investment certificates (GICs) and high-interest savings accounts are looking pretty favourable with their higher-than-typical rate of return (say, compared to when the BoC rates are lower).

    Next steps in fixing the economy and inflation

    Repairing the economy isn’t about savings or defining a recession. “The excess savings story actually masks the forest for the trees, because we’re talking about the largest transfer of government spending that we have seen in a post-war period in Canada and the United States,” said Donald. 

    The government typically spends money during hard times, including recessions, to move the economy back into a good state. But government debt is high, and Canadians and Americans feel “worse off.” “For the first time in my career, we were looking at the 10-year yield, and we’re trying to figure out what’s going on in the bond market,” said Donald. 

    Typically, during a recession in Canada, inflation would fall because Canadians would spend less money. But in today’s global market, taming inflation isn’t just about consumer behaviour, but also about weather, war and other geopolitical issues. “It’s actually coming from a myriad of factors. But moving forward, we know that the drivers and the ways that we calculate inflation are shifting.”

    Lisa Hannam

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  • Mortgage demand climbs to the highest level in five weeks after interest rates move lower

    Mortgage demand climbs to the highest level in five weeks after interest rates move lower

    Potential homebuyers attend an open house in Seattle.

    Mike Kane | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    Current homeowners and potential homebuyers are responding to lower mortgage rates, albeit slowly.

    Mortgage demand rose 2.8% last week, compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index. That was the second straight week of gains.

    After dropping sharply the previous week, the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($726,200 or less) remained unchanged at 7.61% last week, with points decreasing to 0.67 from 0.69, including the origination fee, for loans with a 20% down payment.

    “Although Treasury rates dipped midweek, mortgage rates were little changed on average through the week,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s vice president and deputy chief economist.

    Still, applications to refinance a home loan increased 2% for the week and were 7% higher than the same week one year ago. Mortgage rates this month are not that much different from November of last year, so there is not a lot of new incentive to refinance. Most borrowers carry much lower interest rates due to the record low rates seen during the first few years of the Covid-19 pandemic.

    Applications for a mortgage to purchase a home increased 3% from the previous week and were 12% lower than the same week a year ago. Lower rates may help a little, but still-rising home prices and the still-low supply of homes are bigger hurdles for today’s potential buyers.

    “Both purchase and refinance applications increased to the highest weekly pace in five weeks but remain at very low levels. Despite the recent downward trend, mortgage rates at current levels are still challenging for many prospective homebuyers and current homeowners,” added Kan.

    Mortgage rates moved lower this week, due to a sharp bond market rally after the government’s monthly inflation report came in lower than analysts had predicted. 

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  • Inflation was flat in October from the prior month, core CPI hits two-year low

    Inflation was flat in October from the prior month, core CPI hits two-year low

    Inflation was flat in October from the previous month, providing a hopeful sign that stubbornly high prices are easing their grip on the U.S. economy and giving a potential green light to the Federal Reserve to stop raising interest rates.

    The consumer price index, which measures a broad basket of commonly used goods and services, increased 3.2% from a year ago despite being unchanged for the month, according to seasonally adjusted numbers from the Labor Department on Tuesday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for respective readings of 0.1% and 3.3%.

    Headline CPI had increased 0.4% in September.

    Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core CPI increased 0.2% and 4%, against the forecast of 0.3% and 4.1%. The annual level was the lowest in two years, down from 4.1% in September, though still well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

    Markets spiked following the news. The Dow Jones Industrial Average roared higher by nearly 500 points as Treasury yields fell sharply. Traders also took any potential Fed rate hikes almost completely off the table, according to CME Group data.

    “The Fed looks smart for effectively ending its tightening cycle as inflation continues to slow. Yields are down significantly as the last of investors not convinced the Fed is done are likely throwing in the towel,” said Bryce Doty, portfolio manager at Sit Fixed Income Advisors.

    The flat reading on headline CPI came as energy prices declined 2.5% for the month, offsetting a 0.3% increase in the food index. It was the slowest monthly pace since July 2022.

    Shelter costs, a key component in the index, rose 0.3% in October, half the gain in September as the year-over-year increase eased to 6.7%. Within the category, owners equivalent rent, which gauges what property owners could command for rent, increased 0.4%. A subcategory that includes hotel and motel pricing dropped 2.9%.

    “This is a game changer,” Paul McCulley, former chief economist at Pimco and now an adjunct professor at Georgetown University, said on CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street.” “We’re having a day of rational exuberance, because the data clearly show what we’ve been waiting for for a long time, which is a crack in the shelter component.”

    Vehicle costs, which had been a key inflation component during the spike in 2021-22, fell on the month. New vehicle prices declined 0.1%, while used vehicle prices were off 0.8% and were down 7.1% from a year ago.

    Airfares, another closely watched component, declined 0.9% and are off 13.2% annually. Motor vehicle insurance, however, saw a 1.9% increase and was up 19.2% from a year ago.

    The report comes as markets are closely watching the Fed for its next steps in a battle against persistent inflation that began in March 2022. The central bank ultimately increased its key borrowing rate 11 times for a total of 5.25 percentage points.

    While markets overwhelmingly believe the Fed is done tightening monetary policy, the data of late has sent conflicting signals.

    Nonfarm payrolls in October increased by just 150,000, indicating the labor market finally is showing signs that it is reacting to Fed efforts to correct a supply-demand imbalance that has been a contributing inflation factor.

    Labor costs have been increasing at a much slower pace over the past year and a half as productivity has been on the rise this year.

    Real average hourly earnings — adjusted for inflation — increased 0.2% on a monthly basis in October but were up just 0.8% from a year ago, according to a separate Labor Department release.

    More broadly speaking, gross domestic product surged in the third quarter, rising at a 4.9% annualized pace, though most economists expect the growth rate to slow considerably.

    However, other indicators show that consumer inflation expectations are still rising, the likely product of a spike in gasoline prices and uncertainty caused by the wars in Ukraine and Gaza.

    Fed Chair Jerome Powell last week added to market anxiety when he said he and his fellow policymakers remain unconvinced that they’ve done enough to get inflation back down to a 2% annual rate and won’t hesitate to raise rates if more progress isn’t made.

    “Despite the deceleration, the Fed will likely continue to speak hawkishly and will keep warning investors not to be complacent about the Fed’s resolve to get inflation down to the long-run 2% target,” said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial.

    Even if the Fed is done hiking, there’s more uncertainty over how long it will keep benchmark rates at their highest level in some 22 years.

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  • ANZ CEO says Suncorp Bank acquisition is ‘important but not critical’ to the group

    ANZ CEO says Suncorp Bank acquisition is ‘important but not critical’ to the group

    Share

    Shayne Elliott, CEO of ANZ says the bank’s strength is coming from its international diversification, adding that the proposed acquisition of Suncorp Bank would be “exciting” for its Australian retail banking division.

    06:15

    Mon, Nov 13 20238:16 PM EST

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  • This week’s October inflation data looms large on Washington’s economic radar

    This week’s October inflation data looms large on Washington’s economic radar

    Inflation data, a Fed speech and a government-shutdown deadline are on the calendar this week.


    MarketWatch photo illustration/iStock

    U.S. inflation data for October is clearly the economic highlight for markets, economists and policymakers this coming week. That’s because if price pressures continue their cooling trend from the summer, the Fed might be able to refrain from any more interest-rate hikes.

    Here’s a preview of the inflation report and other critical data and events that will have the markets’ attention this week.

    See: MarketWatch’s comprehensive economic calendar

    October consumer inflation

    Tuesday, 8:30 a.m. Eastern

    No economic reports matter more for the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate policy outlook than consumer inflation data. Inflation has been trending down since the summer, but many economists are wary that most of the progress was low-hanging fruit, and that it will take a lot to get back to the Fed’s 2% target. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell raised this concern in remarks on Thursday, saying the central bank was concerned about inflation “head fakes.”

    Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal expect headline CPI to moderate to a 0.1% rise in October, down from a 0.4% gain in the prior month, and the smallest increase since May.

    Over the past year, inflation is expected to rise at a 3.3% rate, down from 3.7% in the prior month.

    The improvement is expected to come mainly from gasoline prices.

    Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, is expected to rise 0.3%, matching a 0.3% gain in the prior month. The year-over-year rate is seen holding steady at a 4.1% annual rate.

    October retail sales

    Wednesday, 8:30 a.m. Eastern

    Economists expect retail sales to be weak, falling 0.1% in October after a 0.7% jump in September and a 0.8% gain in August.

    The outlook for consumer spending is one of the most intriguing questions about the outlook.

    Will the strong spending seen in the late summer fade away? With above-trend job growth and incomes rising, there seems no reason for consumers to pull back sharply. But many economists think that consumers are running out of excess spending power built up during the pandemic.

    Also see: Retail earnings begin this week. ‘It’s getting worse,’ an analyst says.

    Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee’s speech to the Detroit Economic Club

    Tuesday at 12:45 p.m. Eastern

    There are just under 20 public remarks from Fed officials scheduled this week. One of the highlights will be Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee’s moderated question-and-answer session before the Detroit Economic Club.

    Goolsbee, who joined the Fed at the beginning of the year, is comfortable speaking in public and on television from his days in the Obama administration, and afterwards as a pundit. His views also carry weight because he will be on any short list of potential replacements for Powell if President Joe Biden wins a second term.

    Goolsbee has looked prescient so far. In his first public speeches this summer, he suggested that there could be an improvement in inflation without a big rise in unemployment.

    Biden-Xi to meet at APEC summit

    Wednesday

    Biden and Xi will meet for the first time in a year at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in San Francisco, amid struggles in the Chinese economy and the recent strengthening of ties between XI and Russian Vladimir Putin.

    Derek Scissors, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, said investors should not expect anything market-moving from the talks. The Biden administration simply wants to get face time with Xi, he said.

    “The goal is to find out how to reach him, who are you supposed to talk to [to reach him in the future], and then have a good conversation with him where Biden can say a few things that we think he really needs to hear from us,” Scissors said.

    Gone are the days when the U.S. and China cooperated on economic issues, he said.

    Xi simply doesn’t care that much about the economy, Scissors said. He is more focused on “really strict party control of everything,” he added.

    Threat of a government shutdown

    Friday, midnight deadline

    The federal government will run out of money late Friday unless Congress passes legislation to keep the lights on.

    It is the first test for new House Speaker Mike Johnson. He has proposed a two-step government spending plan to keep the government open until early next year, but it remains uncertain whether this will break the logjam.

    Late Friday, Moody’s Investors Service lowered its outlook on the U.S. credit rating to “negative” from “stable.”

    This is actually positive for the prospects of a congressional deal, said Terry Haines, founder of Pangaea Policy, a political forecasting firm.

    Haines said he has lowered the odds of a government shutdown to 30% from 40% before the Moody’s move.

    “The last thing House Republicans should want to do…is show newly skeptical markets that they can’t even handle a continuation of government funding,” Haines said, in a note to clients.

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  • What Canadian investors can do in times of world crisis and war – MoneySense

    What Canadian investors can do in times of world crisis and war – MoneySense

    Emotions in investing

    The humanitarian crises taking lives and garnering headlines are heart-wrenching—particularly for Canadians who have family and friends in the affected regions. More broadly, no one knows for sure how these crises will affect global economies, access to resources and financial markets. It’s understandable that investors are scared and making investment decisions based on their fear. Some people are selling their equities and leaving the markets. As an advisor, it’s my job to help take the emotion out of investing.

    We know from previous wars, terrorist attacks, pandemics and other terrible events that people, governments and markets are resilient, and can even become stronger than they were before. This happened after 9/11, the global financial crisis and the global COVID-19 pandemic. The historical evidence suggests that the best thing investors can do when the world experiences a crisis is to separate feelings about the tragedy from the facts about the businesses you’re invested in and look for buying opportunities. 

    Impact of global crises on investments

    The impact of wars and other traumatic events on the markets tend to be relatively short-lived. That’s because unlike fiscal policy—such as raising interest rates—the events themselves are not “economic” in nature.

    For example, if war breaks out in an oil-producing country, will that affect the price of oil? Theoretically, it shouldn’t, because other, larger producers can offset any lost supply from the war-torn country.

    But, as we know, perception can be more powerful than reality when it comes to the stock market. The initial, automatic reaction could be a spike in oil prices—and then prices should adjust with time.

    What is a Canadian investor to do?

    So, what do you do as an investor in Canada? Not an awful lot. As investment advisors, we get paid to grow people’s wealth. When markets sell off for reasons that are more temporary than related to economics and performance, it’s important to take emotion out of decision-making and not go into panic mode about your investments.

    Markets may dip, but they don’t usually collapse. It’s possible your portfolio’s value may drop for a period of time. In the past, after a crisis has ended—and regardless of the outcome—the markets have regained stability, and investment returns have bounced back.

    A crisis investment strategy

    My best advice in the face of a world crisis: Stay calm, take a deep breath and focus on the fundamentals. Keep your risk profile front and centre, and think about where you want to put your money. My approach is to be sector agnostic and look for good value wherever I can find it.

    Allan Small

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  • Powell says Fed is ‘not confident’ it has done enough to bring inflation down

    Powell says Fed is ‘not confident’ it has done enough to bring inflation down

    Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Thursday that he and his fellow policymakers are encouraged by the slowing pace of inflation but are unsure whether they’ve done enough to keep the momentum going.

    Speaking a little more than a week after the central bank voted to hold benchmark policy rates steady, Powell said in remarks for an International Monetary Fund audience in Washington, D.C., that more work could be ahead in the battle against high prices.

    “The Federal Open Market Committee is committed to achieving a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent over time; we are not confident that we have achieved such a stance,” he said in his prepared speech.

    For the second time in recent weeks, a public address from Powell was interrupted by climate protesters. He briefly left the stage before resuming.

    The speech comes with inflation still well above the Fed’s long-standing goal but also considerably below its peak levels in the first half of 2022. In a series of 11 rate hikes that constituted the most aggressive policy tightening since the early 1980s, the committee took its benchmark rate from near zero to a target range of 5.25%-5.5%.

    Those increases have coincided with the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core personal consumption expenditures price index, to fall to an annual rate of 3.7%, from 5.3% in February 2022. The more widely followed consumer price index peaked above 9% in June of last year.

    Powell said that inflation is “well above” where the Fed would like to see it while describing policy as “significantly restrictive.”

    “My colleagues and I are gratified by this progress but expect that the process of getting inflation sustainably down to 2 percent has a long way to go,” he said. “We will keep at this until we succeed,” he later added, saying the Fed is focused on whether rates need to go higher and how long they need to stay elevated.

    Stocks headed lower after the speech, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down close to 200 points. Treasury yields lurched higher after declining for most of the past three weeks, propelled up in large part after a poorly received 30-year bond auction.

    “Chairman Powell issued a warning to investors too giddy on the prospect of rate cuts next year,” said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial. “The Fed will be true to its mandate and hike further should inflation reaccelerate.”

    As he has in recent speeches, Powell stressed that the Fed nevertheless can be cautious as the risks between doing too much and too little have come into closer balance. He said the Fed is attuned to the rise in Treasury yields.

    “If it becomes appropriate to tighten policy further, we will not hesitate to do so,” he said. “We will continue to move carefully, however, allowing us to address both the risk of being misled by a few good months of data, and the risk of overtightening.”

    “Monetary policy is generally working the way we think it should work” Powell said during a discussion following his speech.

    Markets are largely convinced the Fed is through hiking rates.

    Futures pricing, according to the CME Group, indicates less than a 10% probability that the FOMC will approve a final rate hike at its Dec. 12-13 meeting, even though committee members in September penciled in an additional quarter percentage point rise before the end of the year.

    Traders anticipate the Fed will start cutting next year, probably around June.

    Powell noted the progress the economy has made. Gross domestic product accelerated at a “quite strong” 4.9% annualized pace in the third quarter, though Powell said the expectation is for growth to “moderate in coming quarters.” He described the economy as “just remarkable” in 2023 in the face of a broad consensus that a recession was inevitable.

    Unemployment remains low, though the jobless rate has risen half a percentage point this year, a move commonly associated with recessions.

    But Powell noted that the Fed is “attentive” that stronger-than-expected growth could undermine the fight against inflation and “warrant a response from monetary policy.”

    He also pointed out that improvements in supply chains have helped ease inflation pressures, but “it is not clear how much more will be achieved by additional supply-side improvements. Going forward, it may be that a greater share of the progress in reducing inflation will have to come from tight monetary policy restraining the growth of aggregate demand.”

    The remarks are part of a broader presentation he is giving to the Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference. One broad policy topic he addressed was the challenge posed by keeping rates anchored near zero, where they were before the inflation surge. Powell said it is “too soon” to say whether zero-rate challenges are “a thing of the past.”

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