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Tag: Interest Rates

  • Credit card interest rates: How high is too high? – MoneySense

    Credit card rate caps spark debate

    The Canadian Bankers Association said in a statement Monday that Canada’s credit card market is highly competitive and well regulated.

    “Regulatory interventions aimed at artificially capping credit card interest rates can lead to unintended consequences that harm consumers, such as reducing credit availability for many Canadians and business owners,” said spokeswoman Nathalie Bergeron in an email. “Such a cap could drive customers towards more costly alternatives and reduce the value that all consumers receive from credit cards.”

    Conacher, who’s been pushing for lower credit card rates in Canada for decades, said that banks always say they’ll have to stop offering credit to some, but never provide proof. “Whenever the banks say we wouldn’t be able to afford, we wouldn’t have these margins, and then as a result, we’d have to cut off people, they should be required to prove that’s true,” he said. “No one should accept it at face value, given their profit levels.”

    He pointed out how credit card rates have stayed the same, generally hovering around 20%, despite wide fluctuations in interest rates over the last two decades, as evidence there is room to reduce.

    Best low interest credit cards in Canada

    Studies suggest rate caps could save billions

    Research in the U.S., after Trump first put out the plan as a campaign pledge, found that Americans would save about US$100 billion in interest a year if credit card rates were capped at 10%. The same researchers found that while the credit card industry would take a major hit, it would still be profitable, although credit card rewards and other perks might be scaled back.

    In remarks from late 2024 to a parliamentary committee, the banking association’s senior vice-president for banking policy, Darren Hannah, said that 71% of Canadians pay off their balance every month, while there are also some lower-interest card options. He said credit cards offer great value to consumers, that there are some options to switch credit card debt to instalment loans at potentially lower interest, and that the industry has worked with consumers during tough times like the COVID-19 pandemic when it provided deferrals on credit cards.

    What didn’t happen during the pandemic though, was much of any change in credit card interest rates. The lack of change, despite the historically low Bank of Canada policy rate, prompted the Canadian Labour Congress to call for a better response from banks in 2020. 

    Related reading: Credit card interest calculator

    Federal interest caps stop short of credit cards

    The question of what level of interest rate is acceptable is an age-old question, but one the federal government has worked to tackle recently. Ottawa officially lowered the maximum allowable interest rates on loans to 35% on an annual percentage rate from 48%, while separately setting out lower maximums for payday loan charges. The change wasn’t enough to affect credit cards, though.

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    And while interest rates are certainly key, it’s also important to look at hidden charges and other costs like interchange fees, said Claire Celerier, Canada Research Chair in household finance at the University of Toronto’s Rotman School of Management. “The risk is that if you cap the interest rate and if there is no cap on late payment fees, interchange fees, and so on, banks are going to recover by increasing all the other fees.” Such fees are generally more hidden than the interest rate, raising the potential of further distorting the market. 

    Lower-income cardholders tend to bear hidden costs

    Low-income people can sometimes shoulder a disproportionate share of fees, like the interchange fee charged to merchants, because while stores spread out the costs among all shoppers, high-earners get some costs back in credit card rewards. “I think what Trump is doing, the effect is that banks are going to increase their fees and it will be at the expense of the poor.” 

    The federal government in 2024 did secure an agreement on reduced interchange fees, though the rates still stand much higher than in Europe. 

    Derek Holt, vice president of Scotiabank Economics, said in a note Monday that a lowering of the cap on rates would also likely mean higher monthly minimum payments, card companies raising other fees and many losing access to free credit. “In short, education and efforts to raise financial literacy may be more effective than rate caps and so could efforts to address severe income disparities within the U.S. economy that are not the fault of the cards industry.” 

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  • Existing-home sales end 2025 at highest pace in almost 3 years  – Houston Agent Magazine

    Existing-home sales in the U.S. jumped 5.1% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.35 million in December, surpassing the consensus expectation of 4.23 million and representing the highest rate in almost three years, the National Association of REALTORS® said. Year over year, sales rose 1.4%. 

    “2025 was another tough year for homebuyers, marked by record-high home prices and historically low home sales,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “However, in the fourth quarter, conditions began improving, with lower mortgage rates and slower home price growth. December home sales, after adjusting for seasonal factors, were the strongest in nearly three years. The gains were broad-based, with all four major regions improving from the prior month.” 

    Housing inventory fell 18.1% from November to 1.18 million units, which represents a 3.5% gain from December 2025. Given the rate of sales, the nation had a 3.3-month supply of unsold homes, down from 4.2 months in November but up from 2.2 months a year earlier. 

    “Inventory levels remain tight,” Yun added. “With fewer sellers feeling eager to move, homeowners are taking their time deciding when to list or delist their homes. Similar to past years, more inventory is expected to come to market beginning in February.” 

    The median existing-home price rose 0.4% year over year to $405,400, marking the 30th straight month of annual increases. Meanwhile, the average mortgage rate was 6.19% in December, down from 6.24% the previous month and 6.72% a year ago. 

    Regionally, sales were up month-over-month across the board. Year-over-year, sales rose in the South, were flat in the Midwest and West, and declined in the Northeast. 

    John Yellig

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  • Fed chair Jerome Powell calls federal investigation

    Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in a video Sunday that the Justice Department is investigating whether he lied to Congress about the Central Bank’s renovation project. He compared the threat of criminal indictment to intimidation and said, “This unprecedented action should be seen in the broader context of the administration’s threats and ongoing pressure.” Scott MacFarlane reports.

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  • President Trump Just Made a Big Move That Could Benefit 1 of My Top Stock Picks for 2026

    • U.S. existing home sales are near a five-year low right now, as elevated interest rates keep buyers sidelined.

    • President Trump just announced a plan that could bring down mortgage rates and reignite the real estate market.

    • Douglas Elliman is one of America’s largest real estate brokerage companies, and its stock could soar in 2026 if the president’s plan works.

    • 10 stocks we like better than Douglas Elliman ›

    Prediction Market powered by

    In August 2023, the U.S. Federal Reserve concluded an aggressive campaign to hike interest rates, which sent the cost of a mortgage skyrocketing to the highest level in two decades. The goal was to tame a soaring inflation rate, and thankfully, it worked, so the Fed has now cut interest rates six times since September 2024.

    That isn’t fast enough for President Donald Trump, though, who regularly calls for the Fed to cut rates more quickly to bring relief to homeowners. However, he might have found a workaround, as last Thursday, he instructed his representatives to purchase $200 billion worth of mortgage-backed securities (MBSes). These bonds hold thousands of mortgages and are sold to investors.

    As is the case with all bonds, a sudden flurry of buying activity will increase the price of each MBS, while decreasing its yield. A lower yield, in theory, will translate to lower interest rates on mortgages, thus helping Trump achieve his goal without help from the Fed.

    Federal Housing Finance Director Bill Pulte said government-controlled enterprises Fannie Mae (Federal National Mortgage Association) and Freddie Mac (Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation) will carry out the $200 billion in MBS purchases in the public market.

    Image source: Getty Images.

    Existing home sales in the U.S. are currently hovering near a five-year low, and according to Redfin, there were 529,770 more sellers than buyers in November. Elevated interest rates have reduced the borrowing capacity of first-time home buyers, shutting many of them out of the market.

    Additionally, many existing homeowners are locked into 30-year mortgages at significantly lower interest rates than what is currently available, so even if they wanted to upgrade or downsize, moving isn’t a financially sound decision at this time. That takes even more would-be buyers out of the market. It’s very hard for real estate brokers to deliver sales in this environment, especially at favorable prices.

    US Existing Home Sales Chart
    US Existing Home Sales data by YCharts

    Douglas Elliman (NYSE: DOUG) is America’s fifth-largest real estate brokerage company, but it’s one of the leaders in luxury markets in California, Florida, New York, Texas, and more. It was founded in 1911, so it has over a century of experience navigating the peaks and troughs of the housing market.

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  • The US is taking control of Venezuela and targeting Greenland. The Dow could still hit 50,000

    (CNN) — The United States attacked Venezuela and President Donald Trump is threatening to take Greenland “the hard way.” All the while, the US has an uncertain economic outlook and a weak jobs report.

    But the Dow Jones Industrial Average could still hit a record 50,000 points on Monday.

    The Dow, which consists of large companies that are thought to be representative of the market, usually reflects broader American sentiment. When tensions are high or people are gloomy, the Dow tends to drop; when people sing a more positive tune, the Dow trends upward.

    Now, Americans are facing a stark political divide: strikes in Venezuela, protests against ICE following the fatal shooting of a Minneapolis mother, the economy capping off 2025 with weak job gains and intentions to “do something on Greenland, whether they like it or not.”

    That should mean the Dow is suffering, not nearing a record high. So, why is it contradicting history?

    Economic impact over big headlines

    Wall Street is more concerned with the economic impact of Trump’s political moves, such as whether strikes in Venezuela could disrupt the flow of oil.

    But Trump has proposed that the US will invest in Venezuela’s oil infrastructure, potentially tapping into the country’s crude — which amounts to about a fifth of the world’s global reserves, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

    It could increase defense spending, but not enough to spook the market, said Jay Hatfield, chief executive at Infrastructure Capital Advisors.

    “It’s really critical to focus on the economic drivers of the stock market and recognize that the political and international affairs issues are just that, unless they’re extreme,” he said.

    No official deals have been reached, Energy Secretary Chris Wright told CNN’s Kristen Holmes, but there was “tremendous interest” from major oil companies after Friday’s meeting between administration officials and executives.

    Opening up the flow of oil would boost the economy, noted Hatfield, which is a more optimistic outlook for investors.

    The index continued to post gains throughout the week as America’s tensions shifted inward. On Friday, the Dow gained another 237 points.

    There’s a few reasons for optimism: Trump ordered his “representatives” to buy $200 billion in mortgage bonds to drive down housing costs, investors are looking forward to AI adoption and there haven’t been mass layoffs, Hatfield said.

    The University of Michigan’s latest consumer survey showed that sentiment increased in January for the second consecutive month, to a preliminary reading of 54, up from December’s 52.9. Most people were surveyed before the capture of Nicolás Maduro.

    Americans have a more sour outlook on Trump’s economy due to concerns about more expensive groceries and services. But it’s not translating to consumer spending, which has continued to support the economy.

    US retail sales on Black Friday, for instance, climbed 4.1% compared with last year, according to Mastercard SpendingPulse data.

    It’s largely due to the K-shaped economy, where wealthier Americans continue to spend as their wallets are bolstered by the strong stock market, wage gains and higher home values. Meanwhile, lower income households pull back on spending because of the slowing job market, high debt and inflation.

    “They’re a little bit cautious that jobs aren’t being created, but they’re not losing jobs either,” said Paul Christopher, the head of Wells Fargo Investment Institute’s global investment strategy. And this year is expected to have strong job growth, he said.

    Interest rate cut optimism

    Investors are still optimistic about the Federal Reserve slashing interest rates, after three back-to-back rate cuts in 2025, noted Hatfield.

    There could be more volatility in the coming weeks, though, because of earnings season and the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ December Consumer Price Index report releases, according to Christopher.

    The “no-hire no-fire” jobs report gives the Fed a green light to cut rates, he said.

    “The markets look through the other stuff, the political stuff, and they’re going to focus on what’s going to be, we think, a pretty strong economy in 2026. So whether we hit Dow (50,000) on Monday or Tuesday or Wednesday, we’ll sort of look at the larger picture here,” Christopher said.

    Auzinea Bacon and CNN

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  • HELOC and home equity loan rates today, January 9, 2026: A new low mark for HELOCs

    The national average rate for home equity lines of credit (HELOC) fell to a new low in well more than a year. The average home equity loan rate is down three basis points from last month.

    According to Curinos data, the average HELOC rate is 7.25%, down 19 basis points from last month. The national average rate on a home equity loan is 7.56%, three basis points lower than one month ago.

    Both rates are based on applicants with a minimum credit score of 780 and a maximum combined loan-to-value ratio (CLTV) of less than 70%.

    Homeowners have an impressive amount of value tied up in their houses — nearly $36 trillion at the end of the second quarter of 2025, according to the Federal Reserve. That’s the largest amount of home equity on record.

    With mortgage rates remaining in the low-6% range, homeowners are unlikely to let go of their primary mortgage anytime soon, so selling a house may not be an option. A cash-out refinance might not be workable either. Why give up your 5%, 4% — or even 3% mortgage?

    Accessing some of that value with a use-it-as-you-need-it HELOC or lump-sum home equity loan can be an excellent alternative.

    MORE: Here are our picks for the best home equity loan lenders.

    Home equity interest rates are calculated differently from mortgage rates. Second mortgage rates are based on an index rate plus a margin. That index is often the prime rate, which is 6.75% following the last Federal Reserve rate cut on December 10. If a lender added 0.75% as a margin, the HELOC would have a variable rate of 7.50%.

    A home equity loan may have a different margin, because it is a fixed-interest product.

    Lenders have flexibility with pricing on a second mortgage product, such as a HELOC or home equity loan. Your rate will depend on your credit score, the amount of debt you carry, and the amount of your credit line compared to the value of your home. Shop two or three lenders to find your best interest rate offer.

    With three rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in 2025, the prime rate has fallen to 6.75%. As a result, home equity lenders have been repricing their products.

    Today, FourLeaf Credit Union is offering a HELOC APR of 5.99% for 12 months on lines up to $500,000. That’s an introductory rate that will convert to a variable rate at a later date.

    As the offer proves, lenders will not only lower their adjustable rates, but their introductory rates too, following the Fed’s lower-rate policy.

    When shopping for lenders, be aware of both rates. And as always, compare fees, repayment terms, and the minimum draw amount. The draw is the amount of money a lender requires you to initially take from your equity.

    The best home equity loan lenders may be easier to find, because the fixed rate you earn will last the length of the repayment period. That means just one rate to focus on. And you’re getting a lump sum, so no draw minimums to consider.

    Rates vary significantly from one lender to the next. You may see rates from 6% to as much as 18%. It really depends on your creditworthiness and how diligent you are as a shopper. Currently, the national average for a HELOC is 7.25%, and for a home equity loan it’s 7.56%.

    Interest rates fell for most of 2025. They will likely keep dipping lower this year. So yes, it’s a good time to get a second mortgage. And with a HELOC or a HEL, you can use the cash drawn from your equity for things like home improvements, repairs, and upgrades.

    If you withdraw the full $50,000 from a line of credit on your home and pay a 7.50% interest rate, your monthly payment during the 10-year draw period would be about $313. That sounds good, but remember that the rate is usually variable, so it changes periodically, and your payments will increase during the 20-year repayment period. A HELOC essentially becomes a 30-year loan. HELOCs are best if you borrow and repay the balance within a much shorter period of time.

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  • Bank of America CEO says “the market will punish people if we don’t have an independent Fed”

    Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan talks prices, affordability, inflation predictions for 2026, the “shock” from the business community when President Trump enacted tariffs and how “the market will punish people if we don’t have an independent Fed.” Editor’s note: This interview was filmed on Dec. 17, 2025.

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  • Credit card interest calculator – MoneySense

    Play around with our credit card interest calculator to calculate credit card interest and figure out how long it will take you to repay the debt. This tool can help you develop a plan to address your balance and avoid paying interest going forward.

    How to use the credit card interest calculator

    Our credit card interest calculator can help you figure out two key pieces of information: 

    • How much money you’ll pay in interest based on your current monthly payment
    • How many months it will take to pay off your credit card balance

    Start by inputting your credit card balance and your card’s annual percentage rate (APR). If you don’t know this number, log into your credit card account and pull up your card’s terms and conditions. 

    Next, decide if you want to see how much total interest you’ll pay based on your current monthly payment (and enter that amount) or specify your payoff goal in months to see how the total interest charges.

    How to calculate credit card interest

    Since interest is expressed as an annual percentage rate, card issuers take several steps to determine how much to charge each month. Here’s how you can figure out their method:

    1. Convert your APR to a daily rate. Most issuers charge interest daily, so divide the APR by 365 to find the daily periodic interest rate. Make sure you’re using the purchase interest rate (not the cash advance or balance transfer rate).
    2. Figure out your average daily balance. Check your credit card statement to see how many days are in the billing period. Then, add up each day’s daily balance, including the balance that carried over from the previous month. Once you have all the daily balances, divide the figure by the number of days in the billing period to find your average daily balance.
    3. Multiply the balance by the daily rate, then multiply the result by the number of days in the cycle. Now that you have all the details you need, multiply the average daily balance by your daily periodic interest rate. Then multiply that number by the number of days in the billing cycle. This shows you how much interest you’ll pay in a month.

    A quick example

    If you have a credit card with a $1,000 balance and 20% APR, your daily interest rate would be 0.0548%. Assuming you don’t add to the debt, you’ll be charged around $0.55 in interest every day. If there are 30 days in the billing cycle, you’ll pay $16.50 in interest for the month.

    How to avoid paying credit card interest

    When you get a credit card statement each month, you’ll see a minimum payment amount listed. This is often a flat rate or a small percentage of your balance (usually 3%), whichever is higher. 

    While it’s tempting to just pay the minimum payment your credit card issuer asks for, doing so guarantees you’ll be charged interest because you’ll be carrying a balance into the following month. 

    Instead, make a point of paying off your balance in full every month. Not only will you avoid paying credit card interest, but your card issuer will report these payments to the credit monitoring bureaus, which can boost your credit score. Plus, the cash back or rewards you earn with the card won’t be offset by the interest you’re charged, so you truly get more out of using your card.

    How to reduce credit card debt

    If you already have a credit card balance, don’t despair. There are strategic things you can do to get out from under credit card debt.

    1. Negotiate with your credit card provider

    As a first step, call your bank or credit card provider to request a lower interest rate. Your card issuer may be willing to work with you, so don’t hesitate to ask. They might agree to lower your rate, offer to switch you to a lower-interest card, or create a repayment plan that works for your situation—but you’ll never know if you don’t ask.

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    2. Make a budget and pay with cash or debit

    It’s important to honestly track your income and expenses so you can trim unnecessary costs. Stop charging purchases to your credit cards and switch to cash or debit, instead.

    While it might seem difficult, try to contribute to an emergency savings fund. If an unexpected expense comes up (like an appliance repair or vet bill), you can pull from your fund rather than charge it to your credit card.

    3. Open a balance transfer credit card

    If you have significant debt, find a balance transfer credit card with a great promotional rate. Then, move your existing balance to the card. You can quickly pay down the balance while you’re not being charged interest. The golden rule of balance transfer cards: never charge new purchases to the card.

    Canada’s best credit cards for balance transfers

    4. Try the avalanche or snowball repayment strategy

    There are two main approaches to paying off debt:

    • Avalanche method: Focus on paying off the debt with the highest interest rate first, while making only the minimum payments on your other accounts. Once the highest-interest debt is paid off, move on to the next-highest-interest debt.
    • Snowball method: Start by paying off the debt with the smallest balance first, while continuing to make minimum payments on your other debts. After clearing one debt, move to the next-smallest balance. This method may cost more in interest over time, but it can provide strong motivation and momentum to stay on track with debt repayment.

    5. Work with a credit counselling agency.

    It’s completely understandable to feel overwhelmed by your credit card debt, which is why a credit counsellor can be so helpful. Speak to representatives from your financial institution, a credit counselling agency, or a debt consolidation program to discuss your options. They can help you create a tailored plan to resolve the situation.

    5. Consider debt consolidation.

    If you’re juggling multiple loans and credit card balances and having trouble paying them off, it may make sense to consolidate your debt. This means combining two or more debts into one, with just one payment to make each month.

    Another option is a debt consolidation loan from a bank or other financial institution. Or you could work with a credit counselling agency to negotiate a debt consolidation program (DCP) or consumer proposal (repaying only part of your debt) with your lenders.

    Learn more about each of these options by reading “How to consolidate debt in Canada” and “Who should Canadians consult for debt advice?”

    Jessica Gibson

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  • Mortgage and refinance interest rates today, November 23, 2025: Fractional moves

    Mortgage rates have made fractional moves up and down for weeks without much change. According to Zillow data, the current 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.11%. The 15-year fixed rate is 5.62%.

    Here are the current mortgage rates, according to the latest Zillow data:

    • 30-year fixed: 6.11%

    • 20-year fixed: 5.94%

    • 15-year fixed: 5.62%

    • 5/1 ARM: 6.17%

    • 7/1 ARM: 6.08%

    • 30-year VA: 5.58%

    • 15-year VA: 5.33%

    • 5/1 VA: 5.32%

    Remember, these are the national averages and rounded to the nearest hundredth.

    These are today’s mortgage refinance rates, according to the latest Zillow data:

    • 30-year fixed: 6.28%

    • 20-year fixed: 6.19%

    • 15-year fixed: 5.73%

    • 5/1 ARM: 6.40%

    • 7/1 ARM: 6.43%

    • 30-year VA: 5.64%

    • 15-year VA: 5.30%

    • 5/1 VA: 5.35%

    Again, the numbers provided are national averages rounded to the nearest hundredth. Mortgage refinance rates are often higher than rates when you buy a house, although that’s not always the case.

    Learn whether now is a good time to refinance your mortgage.

    Use the mortgage calculator below to see how various mortgage terms and interest rates will impact your monthly payments.

    You can bookmark the Yahoo Finance mortgage payment calculator and keep it handy for future use. It also considers factors like property taxes and homeowners insurance when determining your estimated monthly mortgage payment. This gives you a more realistic idea of your total monthly payment than if you just looked at mortgage principal and interest.

    The average 30-year mortgage rate today is 6.11%. A 30-year term is the most popular type of mortgage because by spreading out your payments over 360 months, your monthly payment is lower than with a shorter-term loan.

    The average 15-year mortgage rate is 5.62% today. When deciding between a 15-year and a 30-year mortgage, consider your short-term versus long-term goals.

    A 15-year mortgage comes with a lower interest rate than a 30-year term. This is great in the long run because you’ll pay off your loan 15 years sooner, and that’s 15 fewer years for interest to accumulate. But the trade-off is that your monthly payment will be higher as you pay off the same amount in half the time.

    Let’s say you get a $300,000 mortgage. With a 30-year term and a 6.11% rate, your monthly payment toward the principal and interest would be about $1,820, and you’d pay $355,172 in interest over the life of your loan — on top of that original $300,000.

    If you get that same $300,000 mortgage with a 15-year term and a 5.62% rate, your monthly payment would jump to $2,470. But you’d only pay $144,671 in interest over the years.

    With a fixed-rate mortgage, your rate is locked in for the entire life of your loan. You will get a new rate if you refinance your mortgage, though.

    An adjustable-rate mortgage keeps your rate the same for a predetermined period of time. Then, the rate will go up or down depending on several factors, such as the economy and the maximum amount your rate can change according to your contract. For example, with a 7/1 ARM, your rate would be locked in for the first seven years, then change every year for the remaining 23 years of your term.

    Adjustable rates typically start lower than fixed rates, but once the initial rate-lock period ends, it’s possible your rate will go up. Lately, though, some fixed rates have been starting lower than adjustable rates. Talk to your lender about its rates before choosing one or the other.

    Mortgage lenders typically give the lowest mortgage rates to people with higher down payments, great or excellent credit scores, and low debt-to-income ratios. So, if you want a lower rate, try saving more, improving your credit score, or paying down some debt before you start shopping for homes.

    Waiting for rates to drop probably isn’t the best method to get the lowest mortgage rate right now. If you’re ready to buy, focusing on your personal finances is probably the best way to lower your rate.

    To find the best mortgage lender for your situation, apply for mortgage preapproval with three or four companies. Just be sure to apply to all of them within a short time frame — doing so will give you the most accurate comparisons and have less of an impact on your credit score.

    When choosing a lender, don’t just compare interest rates. Look at the mortgage annual percentage rate (APR) — this factors in the interest rate, any discount points, and fees. The APR, which is also expressed as a percentage, reflects the true annual cost of borrowing money. This is probably the most important number to look at when comparing mortgage lenders.

    According to Zillow, the national average 30-year mortgage rate for purchasing a home is 6.11%, and the average 15-year mortgage rate is 5.62%. But these are national averages, so the average in your area could be different. Averages are typically higher in expensive parts of the U.S. and lower in less expensive areas.

    The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.11% right now, according to Zillow. However, you might get an even better rate with an excellent credit score, sizable down payment, and low debt-to-income ratio (DTI).

    Mortgage rates have been inching down recently, but they aren’t expected to drop drastically in the near future.

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  • Are we in an AI bubble? How to protect your portfolio if your AI investments turn against you.

    Despite stellar earnings reports from Nvidia (NVDA) this week and record returns of tech stocks related to artificial intelligence so far this year, there is still a lot of hand-wringing about a possible AI bubble.

    The 70 stocks that comprise the Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology ETF (AIQ) have lost $2.4 trillion in value since Oct. 29, according to an Investor’s Business Daily analysis.

    The November 2025 Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey reported 45% of respondents believe an AI equity bubble is the most significant current market risk. More than half of the money managers believed AI stocks are already in bubble territory.

    Are we approaching an AI bubble? And if that’s uncertain, how do you protect your portfolio if your AI investments turn against you?

    Read more: Thinking of buying Nvidia stock? Consider buying others just like it.

    Past failures often haunt stock market investors. The dot-com bust of the late 1990s and early 2000s is a recurring nightmare for some. Are we approaching a similar stock market cliff? Two noted analysts disagree.

    Carolyn Barnette, head of market and portfolio insights at BlackRock, doesn’t see the symptoms of a dot-com crash. Today’s AI investments are “a fundamentally different landscape — one supported by real profitability, disciplined capital allocation, and broad-based adoption,” she wrote in a report to advisors last week.

    “Unlike the speculative frenzy of the late 1990s and early 2000s, today’s technology leaders are anchored by fundamental stability. Strong profitability, steady cash generation, and healthy balance sheets provide a foundation for continued investment and growth,” Barnette wrote in the analysis.

    Barnette notes that, unlike the dot-coms, AI capital investments are being funded by earnings and cash rather than debt.

    “This self-financing makes the sector more resilient to higher interest rates and less vulnerable to liquidity shocks. Many companies are investing from a position of strength, not speculation,” Barnette wrote.

    Yet, many experts with their own charts disagree, saying we are in an AI investment bubble.

    One is Apollo Global Management chief economist Torsten Sløk.

    “The difference between the IT bubble in the 1990s and the AI bubble today is that the top 10 companies in the S&P 500 today are more overvalued than they were in the 1990s,” Sløk wrote in a July analysis.

    Sløk believes the overheated AI sector was born out of the zero-interest-rate environment before March 2022. When the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates, tech companies stopped hiring, borrowing costs rose, and investor risk appetites diminished.

    “The bottom line is that the bubble in AI valuations was simply the result of a long period with zero interest rates,” Sløk wrote in May. “With upward pressures on inflation coming from tariffs, deglobalization, and demographics, interest rates will remain high and continue to be a headwind to tech and growth for the coming years.” (Disclosure: Yahoo Finance is owned by Apollo Global Management.)

    AI bubble

    Read more: Create a stock investing strategy in 3 steps

    If the experts disagree, perhaps it’s best to prepare for both AI scenarios: boom and bubble.

    Kevin Gordon, Schwab’s senior investment strategist, said investors should first determine what kind of AI investments they hold.

    “I think one of the ways to hedge and diversify around [the risk] is actually thinking about the difference and the important distinction between the AI creators and the AI adopters,” Gordon said in a Schwab video released in September. “So much of the focus over the past couple of years has been on the creators. We’ve spent a lot of time thinking about who are the ‘adopters’ and who could benefit from the technology.”

    He believes adopters are going to become a critical next leg of the investment cycle for industries that don’t have the ability to be an AI creator. Consider diversifying your portfolio with those who benefit from the technology rather than those who create it.

    Gordon also believes investors should periodically revisit their investment time horizon and risk tolerance. When will you begin tapping your investments for cash, and are your investments built for that inevitability?

    “I think this is one of those moments where you need to look at your portfolio to see where those align,” Gordon said.

    The UBS chief investment office recommends international exposure, high-grade bonds, and gold to protect a portfolio.

    “We think the equity bull market has further room to run, and have reiterated that an easing Federal Reserve, durable earnings growth, and AI investment spending support our attractive view on US equities. But we also believe investors should diversify their portfolios beyond US equities,” UBS said in a note to clients.

    UBS highlighted three “appealing opportunities”:

    • China’s tech sector and Japanese equities: “We particularly like China’s tech sector as we believe Beijing’s push for tech self-sufficiency and innovation creates a foundation for the rally to continue.”

    • Quality bonds: “We would expect quality bonds to rally in the event of fears about the health of the US economy or the durability of the AI rally. With yields still at relatively elevated levels, the risk-return profile for quality bonds is appealing.”

    • Gold: “Gold remains an effective portfolio diversifier and hedge against political and economic risks, and we view this week’s sell-off as a healthy consolidation. While volatility is likely to persist in the near term, lower real interest rates, a weaker US dollar, and concerns over government debt or geopolitical uncertainty should continue to boost demand for bullion.”

    Read more: How to invest in gold in 4 steps

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  • Is the Federal Reserve likely to cut interest rates in December? Here’s what economists say.

    Just a few weeks ago, a December interest rate cut was viewed as practically a done deal by many economists. Now, with fresh government data showing solid U.S. job growth in September, many forecasters think the Federal Reserve is likely to hold off lowering borrowing costs when policy makers meet next month.

    The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut now stands at 22%, down from a likelihood of 97% as of mid-October, according to economists polled by financial data company FactSet. CME Fedwatch, a tool that forecasts rate cuts based on changes in the 30-Day Fed Funds futures prices, gives slightly better odds of a reduction, at about 41%. 

    Translation: Wall Street economists and traders alike expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged at its next two-day meeting on Dec. 9-10. That would amount to a pause in the central bank’s recent move to lower lending rates, coming after two consecutive cuts in September and October. 

    The shift in expectations for future Fed rate cuts follows a six-week blackout in federal economic data because of the government shutdown, a hiatus that hindered the central bank’s ability to assess key economic trends. Last month, Fed Chair Jerome Powell cautioned that a December rate cut wasn’t a “foregone conclusion,” pointing to signs that the job market remains on firm ground. 

    The Fed is more likely to lower its benchmark federal funds rate — or what banks charge each other for short-term loans — if officials conclude that the job market and broader economic growth are in danger of stalling. But Thursday’s jobs data showed that employers continued to hire at a healthy clip in September. 

    “Given that today’s numbers were not a bad as feared, in conjunction with hawkish statements from the Fed recently, it does appear that the Fed will skip a cut in December,” Preston Caldwell, chief U.S. economist at Morningstar, said in an email. 

    He added, “But with the negative trend in labor markets remaining in place, we’d expect the Fed to resume cutting in their next meeting in January 2026, if they don’t cut this December.”

    The federal funds rate is currently sitting in a range of 3.75% to 4%.  

    A move by the Fed to dial back rate cuts in 2026 could keep borrowing costs for homes and cars elevated. Pricier mortgages and auto loans are also reinforcing the feeling among many Americans, reflected in sentiment polls, that the cost of living remains too high.

    Mixed economic picture

    The Federal Reserve’s so-called dual mandate requires monetary policymakers to keep both inflation and unemployment in check. The central bank cited the slowing labor market when it twice trimmed borrowing costs this fall.

    But the latest payroll gains released Thursday showed that employers hired 119,000 people in September — more than double what most economists had forecast. The nation’s unemployment rate ticked up from 4.3% to 4.4%, the highest level since October of 2021. The increase in the jobless rate suggests more people are re-entering the workforce to search for a job, economists said. 

    At the same time, inflation has edged up, climbing at an annual rate of 3% in September. That puts pressure on the Fed to keep price increases from spiraling higher, with some policymakers expressing concern over persistent inflation.

    The mixed economic picture is complicated by the absence of more recent official data. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said this week that it will fold some October jobs data into its November report, which is set for release after the Fed’s next meeting, on Dec. 16.

    “September’s payroll numbers may have surprised to the upside, but in terms of the Fed’s December interest rate decision, October is what mattered,” Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, said in an email. “With that data now delayed until after the FOMC meeting, the Fed’s rate-cut path has more question marks.”

    She added, “Overall, the available economic data has supported a December cut, but given the Fed’s cautious bent, it may choose to wait until it has more numbers in hand.” 

    Edited by

    Alain Sherter

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  • HELOC rates today, November 17, 2025: Less likely to fall more this year if the Fed delays

    The current national average HELOC rate hasn’t been this low all year, according to the analytics company Curinos. Home equity line of credit rates may not decrease significantly before the end of the year, as the Federal Reserve hints that another rate cut might not occur until 2026.

    According to Curinos data, the average weekly HELOC rate is 7.64%. This rate is based on applicants with a minimum credit score of 780 and a maximum combined loan-to-value ratio (CLTV) of 70%.

    Homeowners have a huge amount of value tied up in their houses — more than $34 trillion at the end of 2024, according to the Federal Reserve. That’s the third-largest amount of home equity on record.

    With mortgage rates lingering just over 6%, homeowners may not want to let go of their primary mortgage anytime soon, so selling the house may not be an option. Why give up your 5%, 4% — or even 3% mortgage?

    Accessing some of the value locked into your house with a use-it-as-you-need-it HELOC can be an excellent alternative.

    HELOC interest rates are different from primary mortgage rates. Second mortgage rates are based on an index rate plus a margin. That index is often the prime rate, which has moved down to 7.00%. If a lender added 0.75% as a margin, the HELOC would have a rate of 7.75%.

    Lenders have flexibility with pricing on a second mortgage product, such as a HELOC or home equity loan, so it pays to shop around. Your rate will depend on your credit score, the amount of debt you carry, and the amount of your credit line compared to the value of your home.

    And average national HELOC rates can include “introductory” rates that may only last for six months or one year. After that, your interest rate will become adjustable, likely beginning at a substantially higher rate.

    You don’t have to give up your low-rate mortgage to access your home’s equity. Keep your primary mortgage and consider a second mortgage, such as a home equity line of credit.

    The best HELOC lenders offer low fees, a fixed-rate option, and generous credit lines. A HELOC allows you to easily use your home equity in any way and in any amount you choose, up to your credit line limit. Pull some out; pay it back. Repeat.

    Meanwhile, you’re paying down your low-interest-rate primary mortgage like the wealth-building machine you are.

    Today, FourLeaf Credit Union is offering a HELOC rate of 5.99% for 12 months on lines up to $500,000. That’s an introductory rate that will convert to a variable rate later. When shopping for lenders, be aware of both rates. And as always, compare fees, repayment terms, and the minimum draw amount. The draw is the amount of money a lender requires you to initially take from your equity.

    The power of a HELOC is tapping only what you need and leaving some of your line of credit available for future needs. You don’t pay interest on what you don’t borrow.

    Rates vary so much from one lender to the next that it’s hard to pin down a magic number. You may see rates from nearly 6% to as much as 18%. It really depends on your creditworthiness and how diligent a shopper you are.

    For homeowners with low primary mortgage rates and a chunk of equity in their house, it’s probably one of the best times to get a HELOC. You don’t give up that great mortgage rate, and you can use the cash drawn from your equity for things like home improvements, repairs, and upgrades. Of course, you can use a HELOC for fun things too, like a vacation — if you have the discipline to pay it off promptly. A vacation is likely not worth taking on long-term debt.

    If you withdraw the full $50,000 from a home equity line of credit and pay a 7.50% interest rate, your monthly payment during the 10-year draw period would be about $313. That sounds good, but remember that the rate is usually variable, so it changes periodically, and your payments will increase during the 20-year repayment period. A HELOC essentially becomes a 30-year loan. HELOCs are best if you borrow and repay the balance within a much shorter period.

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  • The economy survived the government shutdown — but all is not well

    The economy survived the government shutdown but all is not well

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  • ECB’s Key Interest Rate Is in a Good Place, Says Schnabel

    The European Central Bank’s key interest rate is unlikely to change unless the eurozone economy is hit by another big shock, a member of its executive board said Wednesday.

    The ECB last month left its key rate at 2% for the third straight meeting, with inflation close to its target.

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    Paul Hannon

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  • HELOC rates today, November 7, 2025: Lenders are dropping their HELOC rates by 0.25% or more

    According to analytics company Curinos, the current national average HELOC rate is 7.64%. Yahoo Finance is seeing home equity line of credit interest rates dropping by 0.25% or more at national lenders. Shop more than one HELOC lender to find your best offer.

    According to Curinos data, the average weekly HELOC rate is 7.64%, down 40 basis points since January. This rate is based on applicants with a minimum credit score of 780 and a maximum combined loan-to-value ratio (CLTV) of 70%.

    Homeowners have an impressive amount of value tied up in their houses — more than $34 trillion at the end of 2024, according to the Federal Reserve. That’s the third-largest amount of home equity on record.

    With mortgage rates remaining in the low-6% range, homeowners are unlikely to let go of their primary mortgage anytime soon, so selling a house may not be an option. Why give up your 5%, 4% — or even 3% mortgage?

    Accessing some of that value with a use-it-as-you-need-it HELOC can be an excellent alternative.

    HELOC interest rates are different from primary mortgage rates. Second mortgage rates are based on an index rate plus a margin. That index is often the prime rate, which has fallen to 7.00% in the past week. If a lender added 1% as a margin, the HELOC would have a rate of 8.00%.

    Lenders have flexibility with pricing on a second mortgage product, such as a HELOC or home equity loan. Your rate will depend on your credit score, the amount of debt you carry, and the amount of your credit line compared to the value of your home. Shop two or three lenders for the best terms.

    National HELOC rates can include “introductory” offers that may only last for six months or one year. After that, your interest rate will become adjustable, likely beginning at a substantially higher rate.

    You don’t have to give up your low-rate mortgage to access the equity in your home. Keep your primary mortgage and consider a second mortgage, such as a home equity line of credit.

    The best HELOC lenders offer low fees, a fixed-rate option, and generous credit lines. A HELOC allows you to easily use your home equity in any way and in any amount you choose, up to your credit line limit. Pull some out; pay it back. Repeat.

    Meanwhile, you’re paying down your low-interest-rate primary mortgage like the wealth-building machine you are.

    Today, FourLeaf Credit Union is offering a HELOC APR of 5.99% for 12 months on lines up to $500,000. That’s an introductory rate that will convert to a variable rate later. When shopping for lenders, be aware of both rates. And as always, compare fees, repayment terms, and the minimum draw amount. The draw is the amount of money a lender requires you to initially take from your equity.

    The power of a HELOC is tapping only what you need and leaving some of your line of credit available for future needs. You don’t pay interest on what you don’t borrow.

    Rates vary significantly from one lender to the next. You may see rates from 6% to as much as 18%. It really depends on your creditworthiness and how diligent you are as a shopper.

    For homeowners with low primary mortgage rates and a significant amount of equity in their house, it’s likely one of the best times to take out a HELOC. You don’t give up that great mortgage rate, and you can use the cash drawn from your equity for things like home improvements, repairs, and upgrades. Of course, you can use a HELOC for fun things too, like a vacation — if you have the discipline to pay it off promptly. A vacation is probably not worth taking on long-term debt.

    If you withdraw the full $50,000 from a line of credit on your home and pay a 7.50% interest rate, your monthly payment during the 10-year draw period would be about $313. That sounds good, but remember that the rate is usually variable, so it changes periodically, and your payments will increase during the 20-year repayment period. A HELOC essentially becomes a 30-year loan. HELOCs are best if you borrow and repay the balance within a much shorter period of time.

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  • Bank of Canada Gov. Macklem Tells Lawmakers Rate Policy at ‘Right’ Level

    OTTAWA—Bank of Canada Gov. Tiff Macklem told lawmakers Wednesday that central-bank policymakers believe the current rate policy appears appropriate to balance inflation risks while providing the economy with support.

    His opening remarks before the Canadian legislature’s finance committee largely mirrored his comments when announcing a quarter-point cut last week, taking the benchmark interest rate to 2.25%—or 2.75 percentage points lower over a 16-month period.

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    Paul Vieira

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  • U.K. Treasury Chief Says Lowering Inflation Will Be Budget Focus

    The U.K. government’s upcoming budget will focus on lowering inflation and paving the way for the Bank of England to lower its key interest rate, treasury chief Rachel Reeves said Tuesday.

    In a speech, Reeves also said the Nov. 26 budget would aim to lower the government’s debt, but also protect public services. She didn’t rule out a rise in taxes on households, which many economists see as the only option left to the government if it is to achieve its other goals.

    Copyright ©2025 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

    Paul Hannon

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  • What does the Fed’s interest rate cut mean for you?



    What does the Fed’s interest rate cut mean for you? – CBS News










































    Watch CBS News



    The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points on Wednesday for the second time this year. CBS News MoneyWatch correspondent Kelly O’Grady explains what that means for consumers.

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  • A divided Fed

    Dissent at the Fed meeting: For the second time this year, the Federal Reserve Board cut interest rates by a quarter point—the lowest level in three years. “This remains a very divided Fed, as evidenced by the fact that two officials cast dissenting votes in opposite directions,” reports The New York Times. “One wanted a bigger, half-point cut; another wanted no cut at all. The split stems not only from divergent forecasts about the economy but also risk tolerances around allowing the labor market to weaken or inflation to stay elevated.”

    This is consistent with the previous meetings: Back at July’s meeting, two board members disagreed with the final decision to hold rates steady. At September’s meeting, President Donald Trump appointee Stephen Miran—who had just been appointed—called for a half-point cut instead of a more cautious quarter-point cut (like the rest of the board agreed to). Then in this meeting, Miran said much the same, but was opposed by Jeffrey Schmid, who advocated no decrease at all.

    “The decision to lower interest rates by 25bps in October was never in doubt, but the unexpected hawkish dissent from a regional Fed president highlights that future moves are becoming more contentious,” Michael Pearce, deputy chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, told CNBC. “We expect the Fed to slow the pace of cuts from here.”

    “A further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not a foregone conclusion—far from it,” said Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in a post-meeting press conference.

    Powell noted that, though the economy looks strong in the aggregate, things look rather bifurcated right now: Spending by high-income households is possibly obscuring some of the pain and pressure felt by low-income households. He signaled that poor Americans are feeling greater financial pressure than before, citing the growing number of defaults on subprime auto loans. (“The percentage of subprime borrowers—those with credit scores below 670—who are at least 60 days late on their car loans has doubled since 2021 to 6.43%, according to Fitch Ratings,” reports CNN.)

    He also conveyed concerns about tariffs raising inflation (the effects of which still have not fully been felt, due to stockpiling by large retailers, which is due to run out soon) and a weakening labor market.

    Ceasefire updates: In yesterday’s Roundup, I was insufficiently careful in my reporting of the Gazan death toll—the 100 allegedly killed by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) is, after all, reported by the health ministry there, which is controlled by Hamas, so it is very hard to tell whether such numbers are reliable.

    Since then, the death toll reported by the ministry of health has risen to 104, with 66 of those alleged to be women and children, and Israeli government sources say “dozens” of top Hamas commanders were taken out, naming 26 militants specifically.

    It is very hard to tell whether the Gaza Ministry of Health numbers are accurate, and Hamas has repeatedly used human shields in an attempt to protect its combatants from Israeli strikes. Now, amid the renewed fighting, both sides are becoming further entrenched: Though Israel says it remains committed to maintaining (resuming?) the truce, Hamas has said, per Associated Press reporting, that “it would delay handing over the body of another hostage to Israel because of the strikes.” This most recent round of fighting was allegedly sparked by Hamas forces violating the U.S.-brokered ceasefire by attacking IDF soldiers, killing a reservist (Master Sgt. Yona Efraim Feldbaum) on Tuesday. The Qatari prime minister said, following this incident, that mediators are renewing their push to “get [Hamas] to a point where they acknowledge that they need to disarm.”

    Trump, fresh off his victorious Knesset speech just two weeks ago, doesn’t seem all too concerned: “They killed an Israeli soldier. So the Israelis hit back. And they should hit back,” Trump told reporters on Air Force One yesterday. “Nothing is going to jeopardize” the ceasefire, he added, with characteristic overconfidence.

    “We actually met with people [who] were leading [Hamas], and… I think they’re unhappy when they see some people being killed,” he added, rather confusingly (given that he’s referencing…a terrorist group).

    “The ceasefire is holding. That doesn’t mean that there aren’t going to be little skirmishes here and there,” Vice President J.D. Vance told reporters.

    Scenes from New York: 

    Related: “The socialist housing plan for New York City“

    QUICK HITS

    • “Transit is one of the very few things that makes New York affordable,” Metropolitan Transportation Authority head Janno Lieber tells a group of independent New York journalists, critiquing Zohran Mamdani’s free-buses plan. “It’s not an affordability problem, compared to the whole country, people spend a lot less on transportation as part of their budgets. It’s an affordability solution, but we want to make it more so. And the Fair Fares program has been successful with targeting affordability. But what’s good about Fair Fares is you can use that discount if you’re low-income for the subway or the bus. So one of the first things I want to get into is, why would we say the bus is free, but [not] the subway—what does that mean? Are people going to ride the bus instead of the subway?…Why is the bus the whole focus? Let’s talk about how to make transit—it’s affordable, it’s a good thing it is, but let’s talk about how to make it more affordable. And we do have tools like the Fair Fares program, where we could raise the eligibility threshold.” (Also, interestingly, future bus revenues are pledged to the bondholders who finance the whole Metropolitan Transportation Authority system; bondholder approval—which they’re not going to give—would be necessary before changing the bus fares in the manner Mamdani proposes.)
    • Things appear to be heating up near Venezuela:
    • A predictable consequence of ratcheting up tariffs: Canada is now shoring up trade ties with Asia. Bloomberg has more.
    • This strikes me as such a misleading headline from Politico, designed to elicit rage: “RFK Jr.’s top vaccine adviser says he answers to no one.” But the actual interview, which is with Martin Kulldorff (former Just Asking Questions guest), is full of very wise chunks, in which Kulldorff talks about how the health secretary, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., has asked him to try to just…impartially follow the science and sift through the available evidence, how Kulldorff is attempting to maintain a posture of humility regarding what we know and what we don’t (including on topics like adverse vaccine reactions), and how he thinks COVID-19 vaccine mandates really damaged public trust in the health authorities.
    • “In long-awaited cuts just months after completing its $8 billion merger with Skydance, Paramount has begun layoffs set to impact about 2,000 employees,” reports the Associated Press. This amounts to about 10 percent of Paramount’s workforce. Roughly half of those will be carried out immediately, while the rest will be done more steadily over the coming weeks and months. More here:
    • More of a conservative take than an explicitly libertarian one, but there’s certainly something interesting in here about changing norms and the declining stigma of welfare, which is probably a bad social indicator:

    Liz Wolfe

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