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Tag: Inflation

  • Feds give record $27B in loans for utility expansion in Georgia and Alabama

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    ATLANTA — Federal energy officials on Wednesday announced a record $27 billion loan to electric utilities in Georgia and Alabama, saying the loan will save customers money as the companies undertake a huge expansion driven by demand from computer data centers.

    A total of $22.4 billion will go to Georgia Power and $4.1 billion to Alabama Power. Both are subsidiaries of Atlanta-based Southern Company, one of the nation’s largest utilities. The companies plan to use the cash to build new natural-gas fueled power plants, build new transmission lines and upgrade existing power plants.

    Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the loan will result in more than $7 billion in savings over decades from a lower, federally subsidized interest rate.

    “We’re focused on driving down costs,” Wright said. He added that the loan would help ensure Southern customers “have access to affordable, reliable and secure energy for decades to come.”

    Wright and President Donald Trump have frequently made the case for their fossil fuel-friendly policies — including orders over the past nine months to keep some coal-fired plants open past planned retirement dates — as necessary to ensure reliability of the nation’s electric grid.

    Wright says the orders have saved utility customers millions of dollars and helped keep lights on during last month’s winter storm. Critics say the orders are unnecessary and have raised electric bills as utilities keep older, more expensive plants operating.

    “These loans will help lower the cost of investments in our grid that will enhance reliability and resilience for the benefit of our customers,” said Chris Womack, Southern’s chairman, president and CEO.

    The new loan comes amid scrutiny on rising utility bills, with electricity prices increasing faster than inflation in many states. There is also widespread opposition to new data centers for artificial intelligence.

    Trump in his State of the Union Tuesday announced a “ratepayer protection pledge” against higher utility bills tied to AI. He said tech companies will provide their own power as they build data centers. Trump didn’t provide details but claimed prices will go down.

    It is unclear whether any tech companies have signed pledges to build their own power plants, but Wright said on a call with reporters Wednesday that “every name you know that’s developing a data center has been in dialogue with us.”

    He cited “cooperation” from giants such as Microsoft, Google and Meta, but he didn’t specify any written agreements.

    Federal officials have long given utility loans, including $12 billion in loans that the first Trump administration and President Barack Obama’s administration guaranteed for two costly nuclear reactors at Georgia’s Plant Vogtle, partially owned by Georgia Power.

    Trump’s tax and budget bill last year reshaped the loan program to focus on increasing capacity to generate and transmit electricity. Loan guarantees under President Joe Biden focused on green energy goals.

    Gregory Beard, who directs the newly renamed Office of Energy Dominance Financing, said Wednesday that cutting interest rates and discarding Biden’s policy “will get us back on the right track in terms of affordability.”

    The loan office will review individual projects to ensure they’re financially viable, he said. “We’re not going to build this plant or deploy this capital until we are sure that it’s the right thing to do for the local community, for the local ratepayer,” Beard said in an interview.

    Those requirements don’t seem to be laid out in loan agreements that Southern released Wednesday. Jennifer Whitfield, an attorney for the Southern Environmental Law Center who represented Georgia Power expansion opponents, said the loans will save money for Georgians, but questioned their wisdom.

    “As a taxpayer, it’s hard to avoid the fact that this is a bailout paid for by every taxpaying citizen of the United States,” she said.

    Any savings for customers must be approved by the elected Public Service Commissions in Alabama and Georgia. Commissioners last July approved a three-year rate freeze requested by Georgia Power, while commissioners in Alabama approved a two-year rate freeze in December. Company officials tout the freezes when utilities nationwide have been seeking record increases. But opponents complain company-friendly regulators locked in high prices and high utility profits.

    Voters booted two Republican incumbents off the Georgia commission in November amid complaints about rising bills.

    Commissioner Peter Hubbard, one of two new Democrats, unsuccessfully tried to roll back approval for Georgia Power’s expansion in recent weeks. He said Wednesday that the declining costs of solar, wind and battery power could make new natural gas plants uneconomic over time.

    “It’s locking us into a costlier option,” he said of the federal loan. ”And so I think it just is not meeting the moment of affordability.”

    ___

    Daly reported from Washington.

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  • Fact-check: Donald Trump’s State of the Union 2026

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    In a combative State of the Union speech — the longest in modern history at about 108 minutes — President Donald Trump defended his administration’s economic performance and hardline immigration agenda amid sagging poll numbers ahead of the midterm elections.

    Trump boasted that inflation is plummeting and gas prices are lower. He also defended his immigration efforts, which have caused turmoil in Democratic-run cities and resulted in the deaths of two U.S. citizens shot by immigration agents. 

    Trump called on legislators to stand and show their support if they agree that the “first duty of the American government is to protect American citizens, not illegal aliens.” That garnered a prolonged standing ovation from Republicans and silence from seated Democrats, prompting Trump to say they should be “ashamed of themselves.”

    Scant in Trump’s speech: acknowledgement of the fourth anniversary of the Russia-Ukraine war, which he vowed during his presidential campaign to end. He also didn’t discuss the release of government files on convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, an issue Trump pivoted on after undermining efforts to release them, although some Epstein victims were in attendance. 

    Dozens of Democrats skipped Trump’s address and attended outside events, including a rally on the National Mall. Rep. Al Green, D-Texas, was escorted out of the House chamber at the start of Trump’s speech after he held up a sign that read “Black people aren’t apes,” referencing a video Trump recently posted on Truth Social depicting President Barack Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama as apes. (The video was later removed, and the White House said it was posted in error.)  

    A rare moment of bipartisan cheer came when Trump introduced the Olympic gold-medal winning men’s hockey team and announced plans to award goaltender Connor Hellebuyck the Presidential Medal of Freedom, one of the highest civilian awards.

    Here are fact-checks of some of Trump’s statements. 

    Economy 

    “Inflation is plummeting.”

    Inflation has eased somewhat during Trump’s second term, but “plummeting” is an exaggeration.

    The year-over-year rise in prices for January 2026 was about 2.4%. That’s lower than the year-over-year rate when he took office in January 2025, but it had already fallen from a peak of roughly 9% in the summer of 2022 under former President Joe Biden. 

    By Biden’s last month in office, year-over-year inflation was about 2.9%. The Federal Reserve aims to keep inflation about 2% year-over-year.

    Some items have seen price decreases during Trump’s second term, while others have experienced price increases.

    The price of gasoline has dropped about 6%, and the price of new and used cars has dropped by a little under 1%.

    Groceries are up by about 2%, electricity is up by 6.3%, housing is up by 3.4%, medical care is up by 3.2% and apparel is up by 1.8%.

    Wages on Trump’s watch have so far risen faster than inflation.

    Gasoline is “now below $2.30 a gallon in most states, and in some places, $1.99 a gallon.”

    Looking at statewide averages, Trump is wrong — not one state has an average below $2.30 per gallon, according to the American Automobile Association. Some individual stations might be lower.

    The state with the nation’s lowest average price on Feb. 24 was Oklahoma, at $2.37 a gallon. Arkansas, Kansas and Mississippi are the other states with average prices at or below $2.50 a gallon. Another nine states had gasoline between $2.50 and $2.60 a gallon.

    According to GasBuddy, a gasoline price app, two Oklahoma stations on Feb. 23 were charging $1.99 a gallon, as were three in Kansas and two in Texas. 

    Trump said, “When I visited the great state of Iowa just a few weeks ago, I even saw $1.85 a gallon for gasoline.” However, a woman attending the speech fact-checked him; it was $2.69 a gallon at the station outside the Iowa venue for Trump’s speech there. The state average at the time was $2.57 a gallon, and GasBuddy found just four stations in the state selling for less than $2 a gallon.

    Gasoline prices have fallen during Trump’s second term, from a nationwide average of $3.11 a gallon when he was inaugurated to $2.92 the week of Feb. 16. 

     

    “I’m also ending the wildly inflated cost of prescription drugs like it’s never happened before.”

    Trump said prescription drug prices for Americans are dropping to some of the lowest in the world, with differences as high as “300, 400, 500, 600% and more, all available right now at a new website called TrumpRX.gov.”

    That’s mathematical hyperbole, and it exaggerates savings on the new TrumpRx.gov website. A 100% drop in a drug’s price means it would cost $0. Prices slashed by 300% to 900% would mean drug manufacturers are paying people who are obtaining medications, instead of the other way around. 

    The discounts on TrumpRx.gov are largely limited to drugs for weight loss and fertility that many Americans have to pay for out of pocket because insurance plans often offer limited or no coverage. For example, the site offers Cetrotide, a medication used as part of fertility treatments, for $22.50, down from $316.12 — a 93% discount. It also offers Wegovy pills for $149 a month, down from $1,349 — an 89% discount.

    Other pharmacies or websites sell generic versions of 20 of the 43 drugs on Trump’s website, often at lower prices. Plus, the website says these discounts are currently “only available for cash-paying patients,” not people using their insurance.

    A White House official told PolitiFact the administration plans to extend the website’s benefits to people with insurance through Trump’s health care plan, which has not advanced in Congress.

    Trump accounts

    “With modest additional contributions, these young people’s accounts could grow to over $100,000 or more by the time they turn 18.”

    This growth is not guaranteed over decades, and it almost certainly wouldn’t happen in 18 years. 

    For newly launched “Trump accounts,” babies born between Jan. 1, 2025, and Dec. 31, 2028, will receive $1,000 in seed money from the federal government. Parents can make additional deposits but aren’t required to.

    An investment calculator maintained by the federal Securities and Exchange Commission shows that $1,000 could grow to about $6,000 after 18 years.

    If accountholders added another $9,000 during that time — something many Americans could not afford to do — it would produce about $60,000 in 18 years, at a 10% rate of growth. 

    The historical annual average gain for the U.S. stock market is about 10%, but that rate of gain is not assured. Management fees also could eat into any gains.

    Even a modest 2% inflation rate would take a big bite out of the final amount. 

    Finally, the amount in the account would decline further upon withdrawal because of taxes.

    Immigration

    “In the past nine months, zero illegal aliens have been admitted to the United States.”

    Encounters with people trying to illegally cross the U.S. southern border have dropped significantly during Trump’s second term. 

    In January 2026, Customs and Border Protection officials encountered immigrants at the southern border nearly 10,000 times compared with more than 61,000 encounters in January 2025.

    According to the Department of Homeland Security, U.S. Border Patrol has not released any immigrants into the U.S. for eight months while they await their court proceedings. That means immigrants encountered by Border Patrol have either been quickly deported or detained.

    “And with our new military campaign, we have stopped record amounts of drugs coming into our country and virtually stopped it completely coming in by water or sea.”

    There is no evidence that drugs coming in by sea have been “virtually stopped” by the Trump administration’s “new military campaign.”

    Trump didn’t detail what military campaign he was referencing, but since September 2025, the Trump administration has struck at least 41 vessels killing about 152 people in the Caribbean Sea and Eastern Pacific Ocean. The administration hasn’t provided any evidence that the vessels it has struck were carrying drugs.

    There has been a drop in Customs and Border Protection drug seizures since the strikes began. But the Coast Guard — not CBP — oversees most drug seizures on water, especially in international waters. And that agency has seen a steep increase in drug seizures.

    The White House cites a drop in CBP drug seizures as a success at the same time the Coast Guard cites an increase in drug interdictions as a success, too. 

    However, neither an increase nor a decrease in drug seizures shows how many drugs are entering the U.S. That number is unknowable, according to drug experts. Drug seizures tell us only how many drugs are stopped from entering the U.S.

    Crime

    “Last year, the murder rate saw its single largest decline in recorded history. This is the biggest decline, think of it, in recorded history, the lowest number in over 125 years.”

    He’s right about the largest decline, but whether it’s the lowest in 125 years is less certain. 

    Experts expect that when the final 2025 murder rate, as defined by the FBI, is released later this year, it likely will be the lowest in at least 65 years. The 2025 drop of about 20% is likely to become the largest one-year decline ever recorded, experts say.

    Whether it is the lowest in 125 years is less certain. Here’s why the 125 years number raises questions: The data collected between 1930 and 1960 is not comparable to later data, and the data from 1900 to 1930 includes all homicides, not just murders. (A killing in self-defense, for instance, is a homicide but not murder.)

    SNAP benefits

    “In one year, we have lifted 2.4 million Americans, a record, off of food stamps.”

    The number refers to Americans who are projected to lose their benefits following the passage of Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act — not necessarily people who were able to afford to be off them. 

    An August 2025 Congressional Budget Office analysis found that about 2.4 million Americans would lose access to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, more commonly known as food stamps, because of the law.

    The law expanded work requirements for able-bodied adults, mandating that parents of dependent children ages 14 and older work, volunteer or participate in job training at least 80 hours a month. It also requires adults ages 55 to 64, veterans, people experiencing homelessness and people who were formerly in foster care to meet the new requirements, while exempting Native Americans. 

    About 42 million low-income people receive benefits through SNAP, getting an average individual monthly benefit of about $190, or $356 per household. Recipients can use the benefits to buy fruits, vegetables, meat, dairy products, bread and other foods. The majority of SNAP households live in poverty. 

    RELATED: Our liveblog of Trump’s 2026 State of the Union address

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  • Inflation falls, but Trump exaggerates his success

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    President Donald Trump inflated his administration’s success in reducing inflation at his Feb. 24 State of the Union address, falsely claiming he inherited “record levels” from President Joe Biden.

    “Inflation is plummeting,” Trump said early in his speech. It has eased somewhat during Trump’s second term, but “plummeting” would be an exaggeration.

    The year-over-year rise in prices for January 2026 was about 2.4%. That’s lower than the year-over-year rate when he took office, but it had already fallen from a peak of roughly 9% in the summer of 2022 under President Joe Biden. By Biden’s last month in office, year-over-year inflation was about 2.9%. The Federal Reserve aims to keep inflation about 2% year-over-year.

    Some items have seen price decreases during Trump’s second term, while others have experienced price increases.
    The price of gasoline has dropped about 6%, and the price of new and used cars has dropped by a little under 1%. But groceries are up by about 2%, electricity is up by 6.3%, housing is up by 3.4%, medical care is up by 3.2%, and apparel is up by 1.8%.

    However, wages on Trump’s watch have so far risen faster than inflation.

    Trump did not inherit inflation “at record levels.” Under Biden, year-over-year inflation peaked at about 9%, which was the highest in around 40 years, not of all time.

    By Biden’s last month in office, year-over-year inflation was about 2.9%. The Federal Reserve aims to keep inflation about 2% year-over-year.

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  • Middle-market firms, including on LI, see growth amid challenges | Long Island Business News

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    The Blueprint:
    • ‘s survey included 500 financial decision-makers from U.S. middle-market firms, including on .
    • 92% rated their as good or very good in 2025, up from 79% the previous year.
    • Concerns about inflation, and geopolitical tensions increased among middle-market firms.
    • Only 22% of firms use their banker as a trusted advisor for major financial decisions.

    Middle-market commercial and industrial businesses saw strong financial performance in 2025, but now face rising cost pressures and global uncertainty.

    That’s according to Valley Bank’s second annual middle-market commercial and industrial survey, “Entering with Momentum.”

    Looking ahead, businesses remain optimistic but are adjusting to shifting dynamics, including cash‑flow timing, rising costs and an increasingly uncertain global landscape.

    “ help drive the U.S. economy and the positive results in this survey indicate that many are entering 2026 in strong and stable positions,” Gino Martocci, president of Commercial Banking of Valley Bank, said in a news release about the survey.

    “To maintain this momentum, leaders should focus on the basics, be selective in what they prioritize and those who focus on a few core areas and remain vigilant and adaptable, will achieve greater success in an evolving landscape,” Martocci said.

    Conducted in December, the survey included 500 financial decision-makers at U.S. middle-market companies across Valley Bank’s footprint, including Long Island. Eligible participants were responsible for or played a leading role in financial decisions at firms with annual revenues between $5 million and $249 million.

    Compared to 2025, respondents reported significant gains. Ninety-two percent rated their cash flow as good or very good, up from 79 percent the previous year. Productivity rose from 85 percent to 95 percent, as more companies reported operating more efficiently across their core functions. also climbed, increasing from 79 percent to 89 percent, reflecting improved financial results across the middle-market segment.

    Still, concerns about difficulty managing inflation and interest rates rose to 57 percent, up from 45 percent, while 52 percent say they were concerned about geopolitical tensions and trade policies, up from 41 percent a year ago.

    Survey respondents identified priorities that will drive their key initiatives for 2026. These include financial and operational efficiency, alongside efforts to enhance customer retention and loyalty. Strengthening pricing strategy and cost efficiency was also highlighted. Additionally, organizations plan to invest in AI and machine learning adoption. Data analytics and business intelligence were recognized as critical tools.

    Yet there may be shortcomings in carrying out these initiatives, according to the survey. Only 40 percent of respondents report effective cash-flow management, and 39 percent express confidence in their budgeting and forecasting processes. Just 37 percent feel they are effective in controlling costs, while 36 percent report strong profit-margin management. Meanwhile, 35 percent indicate they are successfully integrating financial technology, and 30 percent believe they are optimizing working capital.

    In addition, 30 percent say hiring remains difficult, and 17 percent report challenges in retaining top employees.

    The survey also showed that only 22 percent say they use their banker as a trusted advisor for major financial decisions.

    It also found that 39 percent implement mitigation services, even though 68 percent recognize the need for stronger . Additionally, just 57 percent rank data security among their top priorities.

    “Fraud protection is not optional, it is foundational,” Martocci said. “Simple safeguards, real-time alerts, and clearly defined response protocols can dramatically reduce financial loss and business disruption.”


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    Adina Genn

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  • US futures fall while Asian markets are mostly higher after the Supreme Court nixes Trump’s tariffs

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    BANGKOK — U.S. futures fell and most Asian markets climbed Monday after the Supreme Court struck down most of President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs.

    Tokyo’s markets were closed for a holiday.

    Hong Kong led regional gains as its Hang Seng index surged 2.2% to 27,003.47. But the Shanghai Composite index lost 1.3% to 4,082.07.

    In South Korea, the Kospi gained 1.1% to 5,873.07.

    Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 shed 0.4% to 9,041.00.

    Taiwan’s Taiex jumped 1.4%.

    The mixed reactions are “highlighting the winners-and-losers effect of shifts in tariff policy that has just delivered a boost to countries who previously had a comparatively bad deal,” Benjamin Picton of Rabobank said in a commentary.

    “U.S. tariff policy will continue to be a source of uncertainty for markets as traders attempt to price in the implications of what is still a movable feast,” he wrote.

    The future for the S&P 500 lost 0.7% and that for the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.6%. The future for the Nasdaq composite index was down 0.8%.

    On Friday, Wall Street kept calm after the Supreme Court’s ruling against Trump’s sweeping tariffs, which had triggered panic in financial markets when they were announced last year.

    The S&P 500 rose 0.7% to 6,909.51. It had been flipping between small gains and losses before the court’s ruling, following discouraging reports showing slowing growth for the U.S. economy and faster inflation.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.5% to 49,625.97. The Nasdaq composite rose 0.9% to 22,886.07.

    Tariffs also aren’t going away, even with the Supreme Court’s ruling. Trump in the afternoon said he would use other avenues to put taxes on imports from other countries after calling the court’s decision terrible.

    “Just so you understand, we have tariffs, we just have them in a different way,” Trump told reporters in an afternoon briefing. He said he would sign an executive order to impose a 10% global tariff under a law that could limit it to 150 days. He later raised that to 15%.

    The president also said he’s exploring other tariffs through other avenues, ones that would require an investigation through the Commerce Department.

    The reaction has been tentative given persisting uncertainties over what Trump will do.

    On Wall Street, Akamai Technologies dropped 14.1% for one of the market’s sharpest losses. The cybersecurity and cloud computing company reported stronger results for the end of 2025 than analysts expected, but it gave a profit forecast for the upcoming year that fell short of estimates.

    Akamai plans to spend a bigger percentage of its revenue this upcoming year on equipment and other investments. It’s the latest potential indicator of how shortages of computer memory created by the AI boom are affecting customers throughout the economy.

    Discouraging reports showing slowing U.S. economic growth and accelerating inflation drew a relatively muted response from investors.

    The reports underscore the tricky situation the Federal Reserve faces as it sets interest rates, but did not change traders’ expectations much for what the Fed will ultimately do. Traders are still betting that the Fed will lower rates at least twice this year, according to data from CME Group.

    Lower interest rates would give the economy and investment prices a boost, but they also risk worsening inflation. Fed officials said at their last meeting that they want to see inflation fall further before they would support cutting rates further.

    In other dealings early Monday, U.S. benchmark crude oil lost 53 cents to $65.95 per barrel. Brent crude, the international standard, gave up 51 cents to $70.79 per barrel.

    The U.S. dollar slipped to 154.11 Japanese yen f rom 154.99 yen. The euro rose to $1.1828 from $1.1780.

    The price of gold rose 1.9%, while the price of silver was up 5.5%.

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  • US futures fall while Asian markets are mostly higher after the Supreme Court nixes Trump’s tariffs

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    BANGKOK — U.S. futures fell and most Asian markets climbed Monday after the Supreme Court struck down most of President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs.

    Tokyo’s markets were closed for a holiday.

    Hong Kong led regional gains as its Hang Seng index surged 2.2% to 27,003.47. But the Shanghai Composite index lost 1.3% to 4,082.07.

    In South Korea, the Kospi gained 1.1% to 5,873.07.

    Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 shed 0.4% to 9,041.00.

    Taiwan’s Taiex jumped 1.4%.

    The mixed reactions are “highlighting the winners-and-losers effect of shifts in tariff policy that has just delivered a boost to countries who previously had a comparatively bad deal,” Benjamin Picton of Rabobank said in a commentary.

    “U.S. tariff policy will continue to be a source of uncertainty for markets as traders attempt to price in the implications of what is still a movable feast,” he wrote.

    The future for the S&P 500 lost 0.7% and that for the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.6%. The future for the Nasdaq composite index was down 0.8%.

    On Friday, Wall Street kept calm after the Supreme Court’s ruling against Trump’s sweeping tariffs, which had triggered panic in financial markets when they were announced last year.

    The S&P 500 rose 0.7% to 6,909.51. It had been flipping between small gains and losses before the court’s ruling, following discouraging reports showing slowing growth for the U.S. economy and faster inflation.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.5% to 49,625.97. The Nasdaq composite rose 0.9% to 22,886.07.

    Tariffs also aren’t going away, even with the Supreme Court’s ruling. Trump in the afternoon said he would use other avenues to put taxes on imports from other countries after calling the court’s decision terrible.

    “Just so you understand, we have tariffs, we just have them in a different way,” Trump told reporters in an afternoon briefing. He said he would sign an executive order to impose a 10% global tariff under a law that could limit it to 150 days. He later raised that to 15%.

    The president also said he’s exploring other tariffs through other avenues, ones that would require an investigation through the Commerce Department.

    The reaction has been tentative given persisting uncertainties over what Trump will do.

    On Wall Street, Akamai Technologies dropped 14.1% for one of the market’s sharpest losses. The cybersecurity and cloud computing company reported stronger results for the end of 2025 than analysts expected, but it gave a profit forecast for the upcoming year that fell short of estimates.

    Akamai plans to spend a bigger percentage of its revenue this upcoming year on equipment and other investments. It’s the latest potential indicator of how shortages of computer memory created by the AI boom are affecting customers throughout the economy.

    Discouraging reports showing slowing U.S. economic growth and accelerating inflation drew a relatively muted response from investors.

    The reports underscore the tricky situation the Federal Reserve faces as it sets interest rates, but did not change traders’ expectations much for what the Fed will ultimately do. Traders are still betting that the Fed will lower rates at least twice this year, according to data from CME Group.

    Lower interest rates would give the economy and investment prices a boost, but they also risk worsening inflation. Fed officials said at their last meeting that they want to see inflation fall further before they would support cutting rates further.

    In other dealings early Monday, U.S. benchmark crude oil lost 53 cents to $65.95 per barrel. Brent crude, the international standard, gave up 51 cents to $70.79 per barrel.

    The U.S. dollar slipped to 154.11 Japanese yen f rom 154.99 yen. The euro rose to $1.1828 from $1.1780.

    The price of gold rose 1.9%, while the price of silver was up 5.5%.

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  • The latest GDP data isn’t as bad as it looks. Here’s what to know.

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    After humming along at a robust pace for much of 2025, the economy hit a wall in the fourth quarter, with a six-week government shutdown and slowdown in consumer spending stunting growth at the end of the year.

    Gross domestic product — which measures the nation’s output of goods and services — grew at a meager 1.4% annual rate in the fourth quarter, the Commerce Department said Friday. That came in well under economists’ forecasts of roughly 2% growth and is down sharply from the previous three months, when the economy expanded at a blistering 4.4% pace.

    Yet while the GDP number was weaker than expected, analysts say the economy remains on firm ground and is likely to accelerate in the coming months.

    “Today’s headline number is certainly disappointing,” eToro U.S. investment analyst Bret Kenwell told CBS News. “When you peel back the layers a little bit, it’s not quite as bad as it appears on the surface.”

    The latest GDP data, which was delayed due to the recent government shutdown, was the first snapshot of fourth-quarter economic growth. The Commerce Department will deliver two more readings for the quarter in the coming months.

    The government also released the Personal Consumption Expenditures, or PCE, report on Friday, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation. Headline PCE grew at an annual rate of 2.9% in December, a sign that inflation remains sticky.

    Here are other key takeaways from Friday’s GDP report.

    Government shutdown tipped the scales

    The main reason the economy slumped in the final three months of 2025, according to economists: the 43-day government shutdown last year, during which hundreds of thousands of federal workers were furloughed and federal funding for a range of programs came to a halt.

    Gregory Daco, chief economist at consulting firm EY-Parthenon, in an email called the shutdown a “self-inflicted black eye.”

    “The disappointing end to the year largely reflected a self-inflicted drag from the longest government shutdown in U.S. history,” he said.

    The lapse in federal spending lasted for nearly half of the fourth quarter, stretching from October to early November. According to Friday’s GDP report, the shutdown reduced fourth-quarter growth by about 1 percentage point, largely due to a reduction in federal government services. The shutdown also contributed to a steep drop in government spending in the fourth quarter.

    Consumers pulled back on spending

    A slowdown in consumer spending also modestly weighed on economic activity last quarter. Spending rose by 2.4% in the final three months of the year, down from 2.9% in the third quarter.

    “Spending didn’t fall off a cliff, but it certainly slowed and decelerated from the pace we had earlier this year,” Kenwell said.

    Consumer spending is the nation’s main engine of growth, accounting for around two-thirds of economic activity. 

    Economists expect a rebound 

    Friday’s GDP print comes as other sectors of the economy display strength. Job growth came in higher than expected last month, with employers adding 130,000 positions. Inflation is also cooling.

    With the 2025 government shutdown in the rearview mirror, analysts expect the economy to rebound this year. Investment advisory firm Capital Economics expects the economy to grow at a 3% annual rate in the first quarter of 2026.

    Michael Pearce, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, also thinks the economy will pick up because of softening tariff pressures and ongoing tax cuts, which he said will boost spending.

    “We expect a sharp rebound in the coming months, driven by a larger tax refund season,” he said in a research note.

    Edited by

    Alain Sherter

    In:

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  • More Price Increases Are Coming in 2026

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    What do Levi Strauss, spice-maker McCormick, BMW and Porsche, Cincinnati’s Structural Systems Repair Group and 16 major drug makers have in common? They’re all hiking prices to cope with pressure from tariffs or rising health insurance costs.

    The Wall Street Journal has a good rundown of what’s coming: “After holding the line on prices for several months, companies – big and small – have begun a new round of increases, in some cases by high-single-digit percentage points.”

    These, of course, are on top of the tariff-driven price hikes from last year, the Journal noted.

    “High-single-digit” increases is interesting. The Consumer Price Index, a key measure of inflation, is based on a basket of goods. If enough businesses adopt price increases, we could see CPI rise.

    Inflation has slowed from its peak of about 9% under President Joe Biden, but it’s not gone. CPI registered an annual gain of 2.7% in December and 2.4% in January, still above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%.

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    The planned increases signal that, for many businesses, the phenomenon of suppressing prices ahead of Black Friday to avoid alienating customers appears to be done.

    Who Pays Tariffs? (Sigh.)

    President Donald Trump has repeatedly said that foreign countries and businesses pay the tariffs. That’s not true, and it’s never been true, as shown again by new independent data.

    Last week, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released a report showing that American consumers and businesses paid nearly 90% of the cost of Trump’s tariffs through late 2025.

    The nonpartisan Tax Foundation found the tariffs cost the average American household roughly $1,000 last year. If current policies remain in place, that is expected to rise to about $1,300 per household in 2026.

    Bad News for the GOP

    If the mild January CPI reading was good news for Republicans at the dawn of a midterm election year, news that businesses are implementing price increases is bad news. The cost of living continues to be the main issue on voters’ minds.

    As many as 7 in 10 Americans rate the country’s economic situation as fair or poor, compared to 28% who say it is excellent or good.

    That doesn’t automatically translate to a Democratic romp come November. But the party has done well in special elections over the last 12 months – including in some very pro-Trump areas.

    By some measures, Trump’s economy is doing pretty well – it boasts low unemployment and a soaring stock market.

    But we’ve been here before. Biden helped engineer the strongest economic recovery of any rich country in the world. Voters still punished Democrats.

    Why? A July 2023 poll from the Economist/YouGov did us all the favor of asking Americans what they meant when they talked about “the economy.” Stocks? Just 6% pointed to Wall Street. Jobs? Fifteen percent. The top answer, at 57%? The price of goods and services.

    The political challenge for Republicans is that disinflation (a slowing of the rate of price increases across the economy) is not the same as deflation (overall prices falling). Trump promised the latter. While some things are less expensive – eggs, for instance – prices in the main are higher now than when he took office.

    Across-the-board deflation is highly unlikely to happen. It’s also not desirable in an economy powered by consumption: If you expect prices to be lower next month, you may put off major purchases, which would slow growth. So how can politicians find the right tone between empathy and overpromising? This year may hold the answer.

    The Week in Cartoons Feb. 16-20

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    Olivier Knox

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  • Shares fall in Japan, while most Asian markets are shut for Lunar New Year

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    TOKYO — Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 index fell Tuesday following a U.S. national holiday, while most markets in Asia were closed for Lunar New Year holidays.

    U.S. futures declined and oil prices were mixed. Prices for gold and silver also fell.

    Weak economic data released Monday appeared to be clouding sentiment in Tokyo, and a 5.4% decline for tech giant SoftBank Group also pulled shares lower. The decline follows a big rally after a resounding win for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s ruling party in a Feb. 8 general election.

    The Nikkei 225 was down 0.8% in afternoon trading at 56,363.39.

    Traders likely were locking in profits from the recent gains that took the Nikkei to record levels. Polls show Takaichi’s popularity is slowly slipping, as hopes for economic revival from her plans to increase government spending and cut taxes subside.

    In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.2% to 8,958.90, while India’s Sensex edged 0.4% higher. In Thailand, the SET was up 0.5%.

    European shares ended mixed on Monday and trading in the U.S. was closed for Presidents Day. U.S. markets are set to reopen Tuesday.

    On Friday, the S&P 500 edged up less than 0.1% a day after one of its worst losses since Thanksgiving. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1%, and the Nasdaq composite slipped 0.2%.

    Share prices have been waxing and waning with fluctuations in confidence over massive investments in AI. Investors are also focused on inflation and how price pressures might affect interest rates. Also in the spotlight for later in the day are jobs data from Britain.

    In other dealings early Tuesday, benchmark U.S. crude rose 48 cents to $63.37 a barrel. Brent crude, the international standard, lost 42 cents to $68.23 a barrel.

    The U.S. dollar slipped to 152.88 Japanese yen from 153.51 yen. The euro cost $1.1844, down from $1.1852.

    The price of gold fell 2.9% and silver was down 8.2%.

    Bitcoin fell 0.9% to about $68,300.

    ___

    Yuri Kageyama is on Threads: https://www.threads.com/@yurikageyama

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  • Long Island businesses eye cautious growth in 2026 | Long Island Business News

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    THE BLUEPRINT:

    • 45% of Long Island businesses forecast growth in 2026, down from 52% last year.

    • (45%) and retention of young professionals (34%) rank as top concerns.

    • 59% say AI will positively impact business; 51% have invested in AI tools.

    Businesses on Long Island are projecting a cautious outlook for growth in 2026.

    That’s according to the ‘s “” released last week. Conducted in partnership with Adelphi University and Citrin Cooperman, the survey polled an estimated 120 leaders of Long Island-based businesses across a wide range of industries.

    That cautious optimism “doesn’t surprise us,” said Terri Alessi-Miceli, president and CEO of HIA-LI, introducing a panel discussion about the survey, adding that entrepreneurs “go out and fight the good fight every day.”

    And, she said, “I know at least half of you said that you’re going to expand in some way. I think that’s really positive news.”

    The “survey showed that in 2025, many businesses expanded more than they had anticipated, and that was a great thing to see,” said John Fitzgerald, a partner at Citrin Cooperman, who moderated the panel. “We’re seeing … a more cautious outlook for 2026.”

    Forty-five percent of survey respondents forecasted growth, compared to 52 percent last year.

    Kevin Santacroce, chief banking officer of ConnectOne Bank said on the panel that his team is “very optimistic about 2026.”

    Looking historically “at the performance of our loan portfolios, our past-dues, we’re at all-time lows with regards to delinquencies and troubled credit,” he said. In addition, he said, viewing balance sheets, “most people are not overly leveraged.” And there’s been a stabilization in . Most client, she said, also have strong liquidity. “We see our clients pretty well-positioned,” he said.

    Despite optimism in the economy, the “ industry has struggled,” said Jimmy Coughlan, executive vice president and partner of Tritec. With a rise in construction costs and a period of increased interest rates, “we actually took about a five year pause on new developments outside of Station Yards.” But now, he said, “we’re finally getting optimistic again.” There is expectation of more rate cuts in the next two years, which would have “a big impact on our industry. And the housing crisis here is so acute that the demand is overwhelming,” he said.

    The survey found that 59 percent expected revenue to increase by less than 10 percent or stay the same, while 14 percent expected revenue to increase by 10 percent or more. Still 14 percent expected revenue to drop by less than 10 percent, and another 13 percent expected decreases of more than 10 percent.

    Of the challenges facing Long Island businesses, 45 percent cited inflation, 34 percent said retention of young professionals and families. And 8 percent said tariffs.

    As for , 59 percent thought it would positively impact their business, and 7 percent thought it could negatively impact business. And while 25 percent expected no effect, 79 percent said they had no plans to freeze hiring or implement a workforce reduction because of efficiencies created by AI. Meanwhile, 51 percent have made some investment into AI tools.

    As for threats, 37 percent of respondents reported being very to extremely concerned, 45 percent were moderately to slightly concerned and 3 percent had no concerns.

    When it comes to political issues, 35 percent expressed concern over partisan policy-making that influences the business environment, while 26 percent said immigration is one of most important issues facing Long Island.

    Top human resources concerns for business included compensation and benefits (41 percent), retention (19 percent), workforce productivity (14 percent) and hiring (13 percent).

    With government investment to facilitate growth on Long Island, 40 percent said it was needed for housing, 35 percent said transportation and infrastructure, 19 percent wanted to see more business grants or incentives while 3 percent said workforce training and education.

    Additional panelists included Rich Humann, president and CEO of H2M architects + engineers; Rick Lewis, CEO of the Suffolk Y Jewish Community Center; Christopher Nelson, president of St. Catherine of Siena Hospital; and Chris Storm, interim president of Adelphi University.

    Before the panel discussion, Rob Calarco, New York State assistant secretary for intergovernmental affairs – Long Island, delivered a presentation of the governor’s budget proposal.

    The full survey, along with insights, is available here.


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    Adina Genn

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  • This Valentine’s Day, Americans choose financial stability over romance

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    With Valentine’s Day on Saturday, a new survey shows that more Americans are looking for financial stability in a partner than for romance.

    The survey, from Ramsey Solutions’ Q4 State of Personal Finance, found 63% of respondents said they’d prefer a partner who is financially secure but not very exciting over one who is romantic but bad with money.

    56% also said they never had a serious conversation about money with their partner before getting married.

    The numbers come as so many Coloradans continue to worry about finances.

    Around 75,000 Coloradans lost their health coverage when Affordable Care Act subsidies expired at the start of 2026, and hundreds of thousands more saw their premiums skyrocket.
    Interest rates are higher than many would like.

    And the latest inflation data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows prices rose 0.3% in December and 2.7% over the last year—the Bureau’s new January numbers will be released on Friday, 2/13.

    “It isn’t really wanting to be with someone who has a lot of money, but wanting to be with someone stable and financially secure,” said University of Denver psychology research professor Galena Rhoades. “That’s a reflection of values: drive, motivation, but also that need for stability and security, especially in a time when things feel uncertain.”

    Denver7 asked Rhoades if that means values can change over time depending on what’s happening nationally. She said “yes.”

    “I think our values are malleable in many ways,” Rhoades added. “Maybe not our core values, but how we value different values and prioritize different values, especially with respect to what’s going on in our country.”

    She pointed to 2016 as another example. After President Donald Trump was elected in his first term, Rhoades says more people paid attention to a prospective partner’s political leanings as a prerequisite.

    “One of the things that we’re missing is actually the opportunity to observe someone in real life from a little bit of a distance,” Rhoades said. “So, if you meet someone at school, at work, through friends, you often get this opportunity to see them for some time before you fall in love with them, before you go on a first date, and and I think that’s missing in dating today, sort of the opportunity to observe someone and learn from how you see them in the real world.”

    Rhoades emphasized that the increase in financial stability doesn’t mean people no longer value romanticism.

    “I actually would bet that that doesn’t mean that people are valuing romance, love, and connection any less,” she said. “I think we’re seeing that that is elevated, that people want a partner who’s secure and stable, but not that we see a decrease in romance or love as part of that.

    Denver7 | Your Voice: Get in touch with Dan Grossman

    Denver7 morning anchor Dan Grossman shares stories that have an impact in all of Colorado’s communities, but specializes in covering consumer and economic issues. If you’d like to get in touch with Dan, fill out the form below to send him an email.

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  • Soaring coffee prices rewrite some Americans’ daily routines

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    NEW YORK — For years, it was a daily McDonald’s trip for a cup of coffee with 10 sugars and five creams. Later, it was Starbucks caramel macchiatos with almond milk and two pumps of syrup.

    Coffee has been a morning ritual for Chandra Donelson since she was old enough to drink it. But, dismayed by rising prices, the 35-year-old from Washington, D.C., did the unthinkable: She gave it up.

    “I did that daily for years. I loved it. That was just my routine,” she says. “And now it’s not.”

    Years of steadily climbing coffee prices have some in this country of coffee lovers upending their habits by nixing café visits, switching to cheaper brews or foregoing it altogether.

    Coffee prices in the U.S. were up 18.3% in January from a year ago, according to the latest Consumer Price Index released on Friday. Over five years, the government reported, coffee prices rose 47%.

    That extraordinary rise has brought some to take extraordinary measures.

    “Before, I thought, ‘There’s no way I could make it through my day without coffee,’” says Liz Sweeney, 50, of Boise, Idaho, a former “coffee addict” who has cut her consumption. “Now my car’s not on automatic pilot.”

    Sweeney used to have three cups of coffee at home each day and stop at a café whenever she left the house. As prices climbed last year, though, she nixed coffee shop visits and cut her intake to a cup a day at home. To make up for the caffeine, she pops open a can of Diet Coke at home or rolls through McDonald’s for one.

    Dan DeBaun, 34, of Minnetonka, Minnesota, has likewise trimmed back on coffee shop visits, conscious of the increasing expense as he and his wife save up for a house.

    “What used to be a $2 coffee, it’s now $5, $6,” says DeBaun, who now buys ground coffee at Trader Joe’s and fills up a travel mug to bring to the office.

    Data from Toast, a payment platform used by more than 150,000 restaurants, found the median price of a regular hot coffee in the U.S. had climbed to $3.61 in December, with wide variation by location. The median price of cold brews was $5.55.

    Virtually all coffee consumed in the U.S. is imported. Though tariffs affected some imports of coffee in 2025, they ultimately were removed. Climate issues — drought in Vietnam, heavy rain in Indonesia, and hot, dry weather in Brazil — are blamed for reducing yields of coffee crops and driving up global prices.

    Two-thirds of Americans drink coffee daily, according to the National Coffee Association. For many, it is such an indispensable part of their routine, the soaring price has led to nothing more than grumbling.

    The coffee association says its surveys show coffee consumption is broadly holding steady despite price hikes. But, squeezed by the cost of everything from rent to beef, others are shaking up their habit.

    Sharon Cooksey, 55, of Greensboro, North Carolina, was visiting her local Starbucks most weekday mornings for a caramel latte until scaling back last year. First, she switched to brewing Starbucks at home. Then, she discovered Lavazza coffee was about 40% cheaper and switched to it.

    “I can buy a bag of coffee for $6?” she said to herself. “It was like I had just discovered another world. The multiverse opened up to me in the coffee aisle of Publix.”

    She has noticed her home-brewed costs tick upward, too, but it’s nothing compared to her café habit. A bag of beans that lasts weeks costs her about the same as one latte.

    Cooksey misses the social aspect of visiting the café, where baristas greeted her by name. But she’s been surprised to find she actually prefers the way her homemade coffees taste.

    “I’ll be damned if it didn’t taste so good,” she says.

    Growing up, Donelson watched enviously as her mother made a daily coffee jaunt (also to McDonald’s, also 10 sugars and five creams), and she duplicated the habit. She went from college to the Air Force to a government job as a data and artificial intelligence strategist, but through it all, coffee was there.

    She noticed the growing expense of her routine, but kept it up until a government shutdown halted her paychecks last fall and she needed to trim her spending. Looking for a morning substitute, she landed on a Republic of Tea blend with a healthy squeeze of honey.

    “Twenty cents a cup compared to $7 or $8 a cup,” she says. “The math just makes sense.”

    ___

    Matt Sedensky can be reached at msedensky@ap.org and https://x.com/sedensky

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  • The January CPI report is the best inflation news we’ve had in months. Here’s why.

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    The January inflation reading offered encouraging signs for consumers and the U.S. economy, with the Consumer Price Index coming in below Wall Street expectations and falling to its lowest level in nine months.

    Although Americans continue to grapple with elevated prices and cost-of-living concerns, the trajectory of inflation in recent months offers some relief for consumers, experts said. Inflation rose at an average annual rate of 2.6% from November through January — down from nearly 2.9% from July through September. (October’s CPI report was canceled due to the government shutdown.) 

    “Inflation fell to the lowest level since May, and key items such as food, gas and rent are cooling off,” Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, said in an email. “This will provide much-needed relief for middle-class and moderate-income families.”

    Here are five takeaways from today’s CPI report, which tracks changes in prices of goods and services across the U.S.

    Inflation came in cooler than expected 

    Friday’s report showed that inflation in January dipped to 2.4% on an annual basis, a shade below economists’ forecasts of 2.5%.

    The softer reading surprised some experts because January CPI data often comes in hotter than other months due to seasonal factors and more rapid price changes at the start of the year, the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston said in an analysis earlier this month.

    To be sure, while inflation is cooling, prices continue to rise faster than economists and the Federal Reserve would like. 

    “They’re going up at a slower pace, and that’s what we want, but they’re still going up,” Stephen Kates, a financial analyst at Bankrate, told CBS News ahead of the CPI release.

    So-called core inflation, which strips out the more volatile food and energy prices, rose 2.5% year over year, a sign that prices remain somewhat sticky.

    Some grocery costs eased

    Price hikes at the grocery store are easing, providing some relief for consumers. Food at home — a category that tracks food bought at grocery stores and other retailers for consumption at home — rose 2.1% from a year earlier, cooler than the overall CPI rate.

    Grocery items that dropped in price last month compared with a year ago include cheese, fresh fruit and eggs, with the latter declining 34%. To be sure, some foods are still seeing significant price hikes, including ground beef and roasted coffee, with the cost of both items up 17% in January from a year ago.

    Prices at restaurants and other eateries rose 4% last month from a year earlier, exceeding the overall inflation rate. 

    Lower prices at the pump

    One standout from Friday’s report was energy prices, which showed a notable deceleration and helped lower the overall inflation reading, EY-Parthenon senior economist Lydia Boussour said in an email. 

    Within the energy category, gasoline prices dipped 7.5%. 

    By contrast, electricity prices continue to climb sharply, rising 6.3% year-over-year. That comes amid an increase in electricity demand, partly from data centers powering the spread of AI services, that has driven up consumers’ utility bills. Those price pressures are likely to persist. The U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts residential electricity prices will rise nearly 4% in 2026.

    Housing costs slowed

    Housing costs, categorized as “shelter” in the CPI, slowed in January. The category rose 3% from a year earlier, down from 3.2% in the prior month.

    One caveat: Experts say that the year-over-year shelter figures have been softer in recent months, likely due to the lingering effects of the government shutdown in fall 2025, which disrupted federal data collection. 

    “The Bureau of Labor Statistics did not have data from October, and they had to impute what they think it was going to be, and that has very likely created some artificially low numbers on housing,” Kates explained, adding that he expects numbers to normalize around March or April. 

    Fed likely to hold off on March rate cut

    Many experts think the Federal Reserve will leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at its March meeting, despite today’s CPI report showing inflation edging closer to the central bank’s goal of a 2% annual rate. 

    While January’s CPI data will be “welcome news for the Federal Reserve,” there may be concerns about some data distortions remaining from last fall’s government shutdown, noted Bernard Yaros, lead economist at Oxford Economics, in a Friday report. 

    Meanwhile, other inflation gauges suggest it’s too early for the central bank to declare victory. Although the latest CPI numbers show that core inflation is fading, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — Personal Consumption Expenditures, another measure of consumer spending — remains stuck at nearly 3%, well above the central bank’s 2% annual target.

    The Fed will also likely be monitoring the labor market for signs of stabilization, Yaros added. Oxford is forecasting two rate cuts in 2026, at the Fed’s June and September meetings. 

    Edited by

    Aimee Picchi

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  • Wendy’s closes US restaurants and focuses on value to turn around falling sales

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    Wendy’s is closing several hundred U.S. restaurants and increasing its focus on value after a weaker-than-expected fourth quarter.

    The Dublin, Ohio-based company said Friday that its global same-store sales, or sales at locations open at least a year, fell 10% in the October-December period. That was worse than the 8.5% drop expected by analysts polled by FactSet.

    U.S. same-store sales fell even further in the fourth quarter. Wendy’s said late last year that it planned to close underperforming U.S. restaurants, but it gave more details about those closures Friday.

    Wendy’s said it already closed 28 restaurants in the fourth quarter and ended 2025 with 5,969 U.S. locations. It expects to close between 5% and 6% of its U.S. restaurants – or 298 to 358 locations – in the first half of this year.

    Those actions come on top of the closure of 240 U.S. Wendy’s locations in 2024. At the time, the 57-year-old chain said many of its locations are simply out of date.

    Like McDonald’s, Taco Bell and other rivals, Wendy’s also plans to emphasize value as it tries to win back inflation-weary customers.

    “One learning from 2025 around value, we swung the pendulum too far towards limited-time price promotions instead of everyday value,” said Ken Cook, Wendy’s interim CEO and chief financial officer, in a conference call with investors.

    In January, Wendy’s introduced a permanent “Biggie Deals” value menu with three price tiers: $4 Biggie Bites, $6 Biggie Bags and an $8 Biggie Bundle. Cook said Wendy’s also has new products coming this year, including a new chicken sandwich.

    Wendy’s said its revenue fell 5.5% in the fourth quarter to $543 million. That was higher than the $537 million analysts had forecast.

    Wendy’s expressed confidence that its U.S. turnaround plans and international growth will help arrest its sales slide this year. The company said it expects global systemwide sales — which includes sales at both company-owned and franchised restaurants — will be flat this year. Systemwide sales fell 3.5% last year.

    Wendy’s shares rose nearly 5% in mid-day trading Friday.

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  • Falling cocoa prices won’t necessarily mean cheaper Valentine’s Day chocolates

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    Cocoa prices have fallen nearly 70% since last Valentine’s Day, but that won’t make heart-shaped boxes of chocolate or even chocolate Easter bunnies more affordable this year.

    Chocolate prices at U.S. retail stores rose 14% between Jan. 1 and the first week of February compared to the same period last year, according to market research company Datasembly. That’s on top of a 7.8% increase for the same period in 2025.

    Europe has seen even steeper price increases. In Germany, chocolate prices rose 18.9% in 2025, according to government figures.

    Here’s what caused the price of cocoa futures to rise and then fall — and why that may not be reflected in the prices customers are paying.

    Cocoa prices more than doubled in 2024 due to insufficient rainfall and crop diseases in West Africa, which supplies more than 70% of the world’s cocoa. Cocoa, which is made from the dried beans of the cacao tree, is the main ingredient in both dark and white chocolate.

    Weather conditions have improved since then in Ivory Coast and Ghana, and cocoa production is increasing in Ecuador and other countries, according to an analysis by J.P. Morgan. The resulting supply increase is one reason cocoa prices are coming down.

    But they’re also dropping because of lower global demand. Chocolate getting more expensive has turned off consumers, so manufacturers have cut the amount of chocolate they use or shifted to other products like gummy candies to keep prices in check, said Chris Costagli, a food thought leader at the market research company NIQ.

    In the U.S., annual retail sales of chocolate rose 6.7% in 2025 compared to the prior year, largely because of price increases, according to NIQ data. But the number of individual products sold was down 1.3%, as consumers bought less chocolate overall.

    The Trump administration’s tariffs were another reason U.S. chocolate prices increased last year.

    The administration put a tariff averaging 15% on cocoa-producing countries last February, which raised the price of U.S. cocoa imports, according to the U.S. Federal Reserve.

    In November, the administration removed tariffs on cocoa and other commodities that can’t be grown in the U.S., including coffee, spices and tropical fruit.

    But tariffs of 15% or more on products from the European Union, including chocolates, remain in place.

    So far, declining cocoa prices haven’t necessarily let chocolate lovers pay less.

    Costagli compares the situation to gas prices. Even when the cost of oil goes down, prices at the pump don’t immediately follow because companies need to use up the oil they bought at a higher price.

    Chocolate makers like The Hershey Co. have long-term contracts that may require them to pay more than current cocoa prices. The market also is volatile; companies know that another bout of poor weather or a surge in demand could make cocoa prices surge again.

    But Costagli said companies also watch shoppers’ reaction to prices.

    “If the customer is still willing to pay that higher price point, do we really take the price down?” he said.

    Mondelez International, which owns chocolate brands like Oreo, Cadbury and Toblerone, raised its prices by 8% globally in 2025 to counter higher cocoa costs.

    In Europe, the company hiked prices by even more and saw a significant decrease in the amount of its products sold. As a result, Mondelez lowered prices this year in some markets, including the United Kingdom and Germany.

    “We have learned that certain price points are very important, and so we have adjusted already to put our products at the right price point,” Mondelez Chairman and CEO Dirk Van de Put said during a February conference call with investors.

    Van de Put said Mondelez didn’t plan immediate price cuts in North America, where both its price increases and its sales volume losses were more moderate.

    Two segments of the chocolate market grew in the U.S. last year: value brands and super-premium brands, Costagli said.

    The expanded interest in higher-end chocolate may seem surprising if consumers balked at paying more for a Snickers bar or a pack of Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups. But the companies behind super-premium lines like Ferrero Rocher, Justin’s and Lindt Excellence were less aggressive about instituting cocoa-related price increases since their products already were more expensive, Costagli said.

    As mainstream chocolate makers like Hershey and Mars raised prices, some customers decided they’d just spend a little more, he said.

    “It’s given the aspirational shopper that little push they need to trade up. If they wanted a better product, if they wanted better experience, better product characteristics, organic, fair trade, whatever it might be,” Costagli said.

    On the flip side, value brands — think Whitman’s or some store-brand chocolates — also sold more products in the U.S. last year as price-conscious shoppers traded down from mainstream brands.

    “The savings you get by trading down is actually greater than it used to be,” Costagli said. “So from an aspirational perspective, it’s easier to trade up, and from a financially insecure perspective, it saves you more to trade down.”

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  • CPI report shows inflation cooled in January, with prices rising at a 2.4% annual pace

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    The Consumer Price Index rose 2.4% in January from a year ago, below economists’ forecasts and a sign that price pressures across the U.S. are easing. 

    By the numbers

    The CPI was expected to rise 2.5% on an annual basis last month, according to economists polled by financial data firm FactSet. The January CPI represents the slowest pace of inflation since May 2025 and is down from December’s 2.7% annual rate.

    “The fact that price pressures in January were contained is notable given the usual upward pressure from annual price resets and seasonal effects – factors that have tended to push January inflation prints higher in recent years,” Lydia Boussour, senior economist at EY-Parthenon, said in a report. 

    The CPI tracks the changes in a basket of goods and services typically bought by consumers, such as food and apparel. The January inflation reading was delayed due to the partial government shutdown that ended earlier this month.

    Food and shelter costs climbed at a faster pace than the overall January CPI rate, but were partially offset by a 7.5% annual decline in gasoline prices.

    Foods like ground beef and coffee remain a sore spot, rising 17.2% and 18.3%, respectively. By contrast, egg prices — which soared during the pandemic as the avian flu decimated poultry flocks — continue to ease and are down more than 34% from a year ago. 

    So-called core inflation — which excludes volatile food and energy prices — rose 2.5% over the past 12 months, the lowest level since March 2021.

    The news on inflation isn’t uniformly positive. Although the January CPI numbers clearly show that core inflation is fading, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge — Personal Consumption Expenditures, another measure of consumer spending — remains stuck at nearly 3%, well above the central bank’s 2% annual target.

    Cost of living remains an issue

    A decline in price pressures will provide relief to many consumers, who report feeling weighed down by the rising cost of living.

    Recent CBS News polling shows millions of Americans still feel under the gun financially, struggling to afford essential goods like shelter and utilities. People with money invested in the stock market, which has increased 12% over the last year, tend to have a more favorable view of their finances.

    Consumers’ perception of inflation is more likely to be influenced by the prices they encounter on store shelves or their monthly bills, which are distinct from the rate of change in prices that the CPI measures.

    “I think that it’s going to take, unfortunately, a number of years for wages to continue to grow and outpace inflation to the point where people feel again like they have the breathing room that they remember from a few years ago,” said Stephen Kates, a financial analyst for Bankrate, before Friday’s CPI release.

    The Trump administration’s tariffs, which research shows were largely passed onto customers in the form of higher prices, have had a weaker impact on inflation than initially feared, as evidenced by the economy’s strong performance in 2025.

    Remaining price pressures are likely to come from people having more money in their pockets due to tax refunds, lower interest rates and an increase in business investment, according to Kates.

    “Those are things that could be keeping inflation sticky more so than the tariffs, simply because a lot of that has already been phased in,” he said.

    What the CPI data means for interest rates

    Although inflation is loosening its grip on consumers, experts think the Fed is likely to hold off on cutting interest rates in the short-term to minimize the risk of spurring excessively strong economic growth.

    “With core inflation at an almost four‑year low and the Fed’s 2% target finally within reach, this is a reassuring print for markets,” Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, said in an email. “For the Fed, however, it still falls short of justifying near‑term rate cuts.”

    Recent data point to solid economic growth, reducing the need for a Fed cut. The nation’s gross domestic product expanded at a robust 4.3% annual pace in the third quarter, the strongest growth in two years. 

    The job market also remains healthy, with employers adding a stronger-than-expected 130,000 jobs in January, according to employment figures released earlier this week. 

    Wall Street analyst Adam Crisafulli, head of Vital Knowledge, said in a research note Friday that he expects the Fed to next cut interest rates at its meeting in June.

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  • CAROL ROTH: Trump is right to worry about interest rates — but there’s a price to pay

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    This administration was handed a fiscal mess, and with that a difficult path. Our debt/GDP is in the neighborhood of 120%, the level of an emerging market in crisis, held together by the U.S. dollar still being a major reserve currency and trade currency, as well as the importance and relative stability of our economy and financial markets.

    Our government continues to run massive deficits — the type you might see during a recession or war, not during a time of GDP expansion. And we are now in a place where interest expense on our national debt exceeds our spending on defense. As historian Niall Ferguson’s eponymous Ferguson’s Law says, “any great power that spends more on debt servicing than on defense risks ceasing to be a great power.”

    Given that higher interest rates beget higher debt servicing costs, and that we have an increasing amount of debt to finance, as well as trillions of dollars in debt to refinance this year, President Donald Trump is right to be concerned about interest rates.

    But there is no free lunch.

    LEAVITT ACCUSES SEN TILLIS OF HOLDING US ECONOMY ‘HOSTAGE’ OVER FED NOMINATION DISPUTE

    Kevin Warsh, former governor of the U.S. Federal Reserve, during the International Monetary Fund and World Bank Spring meetings at the IMF headquarters in Washington, D.C. on Friday, April 25, 2025. (Tierney L. Cross/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

    While the Fed has lowered its target interest rates, that more directly relates to interest rates at the short end of the yield curve (that is, short-dated Treasury securities). The market controls the long end of the curve (that is, longer-dated Treasury securities, like the 10-, 20- and 30-year maturities). And we have seen that those yields stay stubbornly elevated.

    Ultimately, there will likely need to be some form of yield curve control (measures that bring and hold down the longer-term bond yields). If we continue to see our interest expenses rise, that will drive a larger deficit. That means more debt financing, which will drive up yields, make interest again more expensive and create a debt spiral until the U.S. and global bond markets are thrown into turmoil.

    But, as we have seen with Fed meddling and government overspending, there is a cost to Fed intervention. The price paid will likely continue to inflate assets (on a nominal basis). While we need this because the value of stocks and housing decreasing over a period of time would likely directly and indirectly lead to a decrease in government receipts (aka tax revenue), it has the same effect on increasing deficits and exploding the cost of debt. This again means that some action will be taken.

    GOP SENATOR VOWS TO BLOCK TRUMP’S FED CHAIR PICK UNLESS POWELL PROBE IS DROPPED

    This is also why the positioning of Fed Chair appointee Kevin Warsh as a hawk (one who prefers tighter Fed policy) vs. a dove (one who prefers looser monetary policy) doesn’t really matter. Our fiscal situation and basic math will force him and the Fed to intervene in markets and lower interest rates one way or another.

    The price paid for holding our fiscal house together will likely be inflation. This will continue to erode the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar and drive a bigger wedge between the wealthy and the middle class in America.

    CLICK HERE FOR MORE FOX NEWS OPINION

    But intervention is only a temporary solution. It buys time, but it doesn’t solve the problem.

    Unless government spending is reduced, not only through lowering interest expense, but across all categories, or growth is so massive that in either scenario the deficit is eliminated, the core problem doesn’t go away. It just gets held back for a short period of time and then we will be in the same situation again.

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    Our government continues to run massive deficits — the type you might see during a recession or war, not during a time of GDP expansion. 

    And, if you are familiar with Congress, there doesn’t seem to be any political will from either of the major political parties to spend within an actual budget.

    So yes, interest rates are a problem, as is government spending. Warsh will be forced to help, whether he likes it or not, and we will all pay a price.

    CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM CAROL ROTH

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  • Average US long-term mortgage rate barely budges, holding near 6%

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    The average long-term U.S. mortgage rate barely budged this week, staying close to 6% as the spring homebuying season nears.

    The benchmark 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate edged up to 6.11%, essentially flat compared to last week when it was 6.1%, mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Thursday. One year ago, the rate averaged 6.89%.

    This is the latest increase since the average rate eased three weeks ago to 6.06%, its lowest level in more than three years.

    Borrowing costs on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages, popular with homeowners refinancing their home loans, also ticked up this week. That average rate inched up to 5.5% from 5.49% last week. A year ago, it was at 6.05%, Freddie Mac said.

    Mortgage rates are influenced by several factors, from the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy decisions to bond market investors’ expectations for the economy and inflation. They generally follow the trajectory of the 10-year Treasury yield, which lenders use as a guide to pricing home loans.

    The 10-year Treasury yield was at 4.21% at midday Thursday, down from 4.23% a week ago.

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  • Survey finds retailer optimism, though rising costs remain a concern | Long Island Business News

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    THE BLUEPRINT:

    • 68% of store managers expect better performance in 2026

    • , , and were cited as the biggest challenges

    • AI, automation, and in-store technology are top priorities for improving efficiency and execution

    • Strong customer service remains the leading advantage for brick-and-mortar retailers over e-commerce

     

    While store managers are heading into 2026 with optimism for better performance, most say rising costs are expected to impact business this year. 

    That’s according to the 15th annual Sentiment Survey released by Plainfield, N.J.-based  Corporation (LMC). Levin manages 125 properties totaling 16 million square feet across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions, including the 221,612-square-foot Mayfair Shopping Center on 24 acres in Commack. 

    The survey found that most respondents (68.6%) said their stores will perform much better or somewhat better. However, they indicated that the economy and consumer confidence (71.3%) and inflation and rising costs (69.4%) were the top factors expected to impact business in 2026, followed by labor availability and labor costs (36.1%), according to a LMC statement. 

    “2026 is shaping up as a year where execution will matter more than ever,” Matthew Harding, Levin CEO, said in the statement. “With consumers focused on value, retailers are doubling down on fundamentals — strong service, tight inventory discipline and technology that improves efficiency in the store.” 

    Shifting priorities at the store level, including AI and automation, were mentioned by 40.9% as the top controllable levers to improve efficiency and day-to-day execution. And with growing competition from online retailers, 39.8% cited in-person customer service and support ranked as the top brick-and-mortar advantage. 

    “Our survey shows technology has quickly become the most common adaptation retailers are prioritizing, from AI and automation to payments and other tools that help teams work faster and serve customers better,” Melissa Sievwright, LMC’s vice president of marketing and corporate communications, said in the statement. “Retailers are looking for practical technology that strengthens day-to-day execution and supports customer service at the store level.” 

    While 24.1% reported no price increases in response to inflation in 2025, 38.8% said prices rose under 10%. Looking ahead, 35.5% said they anticipate raising prices further in 2026, while 44.9% said they’re not sure. 

    The Levin survey collected input from and restaurant store managers and operators across its managed retail properties, assessing sales and traffic performance, expectations for 2026, pricing actions, hiring and growth plans, operational adaptations, and perceived advantages of . 


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  • UK inflation rises to 3.4% in December, above forecasts

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    A shopper browses fruit and vegetables for sale at an indoor market in Sheffield, UK. The OECD recently predicted that the UK will experience the highest inflation among all advanced economies this year.

    Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    The U.K. inflation rate rose to 3.4% in December, above forecasts of 3.3% from economists polled by Reuters.

    The inflation rate had cooled sharply to 3.2% in the twelve months of November, with the data encouraging the Bank of England to cut interest rates at its final meeting of the year last month.

    Core inflation, excluding energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, stood at 3.2% in December, unchanged from November, according to the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics.

    “Inflation ticked up a little in December, driven partly by higher tobacco prices, following recently-introduced excise duty increases,” the ONS’ Chief Economist Grant Fitzner commented on X Wednesday.

    “Airfares also contributed to the increase with prices rising more than a year ago, likely because of the timing of return flights over the Christmas and New Year period. Rising food costs, particularly for bread and cereals, were also an upward driver,” he added.

    These increases were partially offset by a fall in rents inflation and lower prices for a range of recreational and cultural purchases, the ONS noted.

    Pound sterling was largely flat against the dollar following the data, at $1.3231.

    Chancellor Rachel Reeves told CNBC Wednesday that the Bank of England had expected inflation to rise slightly before it’s expected to cool into spring and summer, toward the central bank’s 2% target.

    “That continues to be their expectation and that continues to be my expectation, and that’s going to happen because of the measures I took in my budget last year,” she told CNBC at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

    The figures, coming after employment data on Monday which showed further cooling in the labor market, still raise doubts over whether the BOE will proceed with its expected February rate cut, or could hold off a little longer, however.

    “A small monthly rise in prices is unlikely to concern policymakers at the Bank of England in the short-term, especially as pay growth continues on a downwards trajectory,” Scott Gardner, investment strategist at J.P. Morgan Personal Investing, said in emailed comments Wednesday.

    “If pay growth continues to fall and this is reflected in inflation data, it could place pressure on the Bank of England to cut interest rates faster than expected. Markets are currently pricing in one to two cuts this year but this could change as inflation data for 2026 starts coming through,” he said.

    Matthew Ryan, head of Market Strategy at Ebury, said he expects the BOE to remain on hold for at least the next couple of meetings.

    “The hawks on the committee have long emphasised upside risks to U.K. inflation, but these arguments are losing steam amid the deteriorating employment picture and the moderation in wage pressures,” he noted Tuesday.

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