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  • Snap stock plummets more than 25% as online advertising continues to struggle

    Snap stock plummets more than 25% as online advertising continues to struggle

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    A bruising year for Snap Inc.’s shares worsened Thursday, as the stock plummeted more than 20% in after-hours trading as executives launched the company’s first major share-repurchase program amid revenue issues in a poor environment for online advertising.

    Snap
    SNAP,
    -0.64%

    executives revealed that revenue increased less than 6% year-over-year in the quarter — its slowest quarterly grow ever recorded — and said that the holiday season is shaping up similarly, with sales increasing 9% so far in the quarter. The social-media company, which laid off roughly 20% of its staff this summer in response to the issues, also declined to provide a full forecast for the important fourth quarter.

    “Our revenue growth continued to decelerate in Q3 and continues to be impacted by a number of factors we have noted throughout the past year, including platform policy changes, macroeconomic headwinds, and increased competition,” executives said in a letter to shareholders, outlining the results. “We are finding that our advertising partners across many industries are decreasing their marketing budgets, especially in the face of operating environment headwinds, inflation-driven cost pressures, and rising costs of capital.”

    “Forward-looking revenue visibility remains incredibly challenging, and this is compounded by the fact that revenue in Q4 is typically disproportionately generated in the back half of the quarter, which further reduces our visibility,” executives explained about the lack of guidance in a letter to investors.

    The board did approve a $500 million share repurchase, a first for the young company. In a news release, executives said that the move was meant “to opportunistically offset a portion of the dilution related to the issuance of restricted stock units to employees as part of the overall compensation program designed to foster an ownership culture.”

    Snap’s results — the first among the major tech companies who rely heavily on digital advertising — likely portend even more turbulent times ahead for Alphabet Inc.’s 
    GOOGL,
    +0.34%

     
    GOOG,
    +0.24%

    Google, Facebook parent company Meta Platforms Inc. 
    META,
    -1.28%
    ,
     Twitter Inc. 
    TWTR,
    +1.18%
    ,
     Pinterest Inc. 
    PINS,
    -0.30%

    and others in the grip of inflation, a war in Ukraine, foreign-exchange worries and a widening recession.

    Snap’s desultory news sent shares tumbling in extended trading for Pinterest (-8%), Trade Desk Inc.
    TTD,
    +2.26%

    (-5), Meta (-4%) and Google (-3%).

    Deteriorating macroeconomic conditions have left advertisers with little choice but to delay or cancel buys. At the same time, intensifying competition from the likes of TikTok and others has deepened headwinds.

    “As a smaller player, Snap is more susceptible but no platform is immune,” Insider Intelligence analyst Jasmine Enberg told MarketWatch. “I expect more of the same results next week” when Google and Meta report, she added.

    Snap reported a third-quarter net loss of $359.5 million, or 22 cents a share, compared with a loss of 5 cents a share a year ago. Analysts on average were expecting a loss of 24 cents a share.

    Snap’s sales increased less than 6% to $1.13 billion, barely falling short of Street estimates of $1.14 billion. Daily active users rose 19% to 363 million. FactSet analysts had modeled 358.2 million.

    Snap shares initially fell more than 20% in after-hours trading. They closed the regular trading session down 0.6% to $10.79. Shares of Snap have nosedived 77% this year, while the S&P 500 index 
    SPX,
    -0.80%

    is down 23%.

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  • AT&T stock surges toward best day since 2020 as earnings mark a ‘step forward’

    AT&T stock surges toward best day since 2020 as earnings mark a ‘step forward’

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    Shares of AT&T Inc. were up more than 9% in morning trading Thursday after the telecommunications company topped profit expectations and posted another quarter of sizable subscriber gains.

    The company saw 708,000 postpaid phone net additions during the period, building on the 1.5 billion such net additions it saw during the first half of the year. Postpaid phone churn in the latest quarter was 0.84%.

    The subscriber traction reflected “more of the same,” AT&T’s
    T,
    +9.01%

    investor relations head Amir Rozwadowski told MarketWatch. While he said that some wireless competitors have been adjusting their promotions every few weeks, he added that AT&T has stayed more consistent with its strategy, something he saw as beneficial for consumers, who understand what the company is offering, and store associates, who don’t have to make major adjustments to their messaging.

    AT&T also added 338,000 net fiber subscribers in the third quarter.

    Shares were up 9.5% in Wednesday morning trading and on track to log their best single-day performance since March 13, 2020, when they rose 10.0%. The stock is also on track to log its best post-earnings gain since at least 1997, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

    Revenue came in at $30.0 billion, down from $31.3 billion a year before, though up from $29.1 billion in revenue for standalone AT&T when adjusting for business divestments. The FactSet consensus was $29.8 billion in revenue.

    AT&T attributed the drop in headline revenue during the latest quarter to the divestment of its U.S. video business last July as well as lower business wireline revenue. Those trends were partially offset by higher mobility revenue.

    AT&T expects growth in mobility service revenues at the “upper end” of the 4.5% to 5% range for the full year. It gave a target of 4.5% to 5% growth in its second-quarter report.

    “Our results demonstrate that the strategy we put forward more than two years ago is the right strategy for not only the future of our business, but for the future of the communications industry,” Chief Executive John Stankey said on the company’s earnings call.

    The current inflationary backdrop impacts both consumers and AT&T, and the company recently raised prices on some legacy plans recently as it dealt with its own inflationary costs. Despite financial pressures on consumers, Rozwadowski said that AT&T has seen consumers trade up to higher-tier plans more generally because they see more value in those plans.

    While he said that AT&T was “certainly seeing signs of inflation across our business,” he also emphasized that consumers seem to have a strong appreciation for connectivity services as they evaluate their expenses. “You need phone and broadband probably more now than in the last recession,” Rozwadowski said.

    AT&T executives highlighted last quarter that some consumers were taking a bit longer to pay their bills, though they ultimately were still paying them. The company is “not seeing any material change relative to what we saw last quarter,” Rozwadowski said, as customer payment cycles are holding steady at pre-pandemic levels.

    The company posted third-quarter income from continuing operations of $6.3 billion, or 79 cents a share, compared with $5.0 billion, or 63 cents a share, in the year-prior quarter.

    After adjustments for actuarial gains on benefit plans and some other factors, AT&T notched 68 cents a share in earnings from continuing operations, up from 66 cents a share a year earlier, and also above the 62 cents a share in earnings from continuing operations for standalone AT&T during that year-ago period. The standalone number accounts for the fact that the company divested its U.S. video business last summer.

    Analysts tracked by FactSet were modeling 61 cents a share in adjusted earnings for AT&T’s third quarter.

    Citi Research analyst Michael Rollins called AT&T’s latest earnings a “step forward,” highlighting that they “reflect a better balance of profitability relative to its revenue growth.”

    “Results show that AT&T remains highly-competitive in wireless, while showing forward progress on improving fiber net adds with its expanding footprint,” he continued in a note to clients.

    AT&T generated $3.8 billion in free-cash flow from continuing operations during the September quarter, and Chief Financial Officer Pascal Desroches shared on the earnings call that AT&T felt “good about our line of sight to achieving our free-cash flow target in the $14 billion range for the year.”

    Rozwadowski said that the company was focused on putting cash back into the network.

    “The business is generating a healthy amount of cash,” he said, and by investing that money in network improvements, AT&T hopes to achieve a “flywheel effect” since an enhanced network can help the company retain customers and convince them to pay up for more expensive plans.

    Desroches added on the earnings call that AT&T was “very comfortable with our cash levels after paying our dividend commitment” and said that “this should only increase in future years as we expect cash conversion to improve from here.”

    The company models adjusted earnings per share from continuing operations of “$2.50 or higher” for the full year, while analysts tracked by FactSet were looking for $2.53.

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  • AT&T stock gains after earnings beat, driven by continued subscriber rush

    AT&T stock gains after earnings beat, driven by continued subscriber rush

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    Shares of AT&T Inc. were up 2% in premarket trading Thursday after the telecommunications company topped profit expectations for its latest quarter.

    The company posted third-quarter income from continuing operations of $6.3 billion, or 79 cents a share, compared with $5.0 billion, or 63 cents a share, in the year-prior quarter.

    After adjustments for actuarial gains on benefit plans and some other factors, AT&T
    T,
    -0.38%

    notched 68 cents a share in earnings from continuing operations, up from 66 cents a share a year earlier, and alone above the 62 cents a share in earnings from continuing operations for standalone AT&T during that year-ago period. The standalone number accounts for the fact that the company divested its U.S. video business last summer.

    Analysts tracked by FactSet were modeling 61 cents a share in adjusted earnings for AT&T’s third quarter.

    Revenue came in at $30.0 billion, down from $31.3 billion a year before, though up from $29.1 billion in revenue for standalone AT&T. The FactSet consensus was for $29.8 billion in revenue.

    AT&T attributed the drop in headline revenue during the latest quarter to the divestment of its U.S. video business last July as well as lower business wireline revenue. Those trends were partially offset by higher mobility revenue.

    The company saw 708,000 postpaid phone net additions during the period, while postpaid phone churn was 0.84%.

    AT&T expects growth in mobility service revenues at the “upper end” of the 4.5% to 5% range for the full year. It gave a target of 4.5% to 5% growth in its second-quarter report. The company also models adjusted earnings per share from continuing operations of “$2.50 or higher” for the full year, while analysts tracked by FactSet were looking for $2.53.

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  • Nokia posts forecast-beating net profit

    Nokia posts forecast-beating net profit

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    Nokia Corp. on Thursday posted a forecast-beating third-quarter net profit as demand for mobile networks and network infrastructure remained strong and supply-chain constraints eased.

    Nokia
    NOK,
    -1.94%

    NOKIA,
    -6.26%

    said it still expects to deliver net sales growth in mobile networks on a constant-currency basis in 2022 after strong sales growth in North America during the quarter, while sales in Europe, Latin America and Greater China also grew.

    Comparable net profit for the quarter rose to 550 million euros ($537.6 million) from EUR454 million a year earlier as sales rose 16% to EUR6.24 billion, it said.

    Analysts polled by FactSet had expected comparable net profit of EUR510 million on sales of EUR6.05 billion.

    On a reported basis, Nokia posted a net profit of EUR427 million from EUR342 million a year earlier.

    Nokia lifted full-year sales guidance to between EUR23.9 billion and EUR25.1 billion from EUR23.5 billion and EUR24.7 billion, adjusted for currency. It still sees the full-year comparable operating margin at 11%-13.5%.

    “While risks around timing of outstanding deals in Nokia Technologies remain, assuming these close we continue tracking towards the high-end of our net sales guidance for 2022 and towards the mid-point of our operating margin guidance,” Chief Executive Pekka Lundmark said.

    Write to Dominic Chopping at dominic.chopping@wsj.com

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  • Nokia posts forecast-beating net profit

    Nokia posts forecast-beating net profit

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    Nokia Corp. on Thursday posted a forecast-beating third-quarter net profit as demand for mobile networks and network infrastructure remained strong and supply-chain constraints eased.

    Nokia
    NOK,
    -1.94%

    NOKIA,
    -5.29%

    said it still expects to deliver net sales growth in mobile networks on a constant-currency basis in 2022 after strong sales growth in North America during the quarter, while sales in Europe, Latin America and Greater China also grew.

    Comparable net profit for the quarter rose to 550 million euros ($537.6 million) from EUR454 million a year earlier as sales rose 16% to EUR6.24 billion, it said.

    Analysts polled by FactSet had expected comparable net profit of EUR510 million on sales of EUR6.05 billion.

    On a reported basis, Nokia posted a net profit of EUR427 million from EUR342 million a year earlier.

    Nokia lifted full-year sales guidance to between EUR23.9 billion and EUR25.1 billion from EUR23.5 billion and EUR24.7 billion, adjusted for currency. It still sees the full-year comparable operating margin at 11%-13.5%.

    “While risks around timing of outstanding deals in Nokia Technologies remain, assuming these close we continue tracking towards the high-end of our net sales guidance for 2022 and towards the mid-point of our operating margin guidance,” Chief Executive Pekka Lundmark said.

    Write to Dominic Chopping at dominic.chopping@wsj.com

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  • IBM stock rallies on third-quarter results, upbeat forecast

    IBM stock rallies on third-quarter results, upbeat forecast

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    Shares of International Business Machines Corp. rallied in extended trading Wednesday, after the tech software, consulting and infrastructure giant reported third-quarter results that beat expectations and offered up a more upbeat full-year sales forecast.

    IBM
    IBM,
    -0.35%

    reported earnings as Wall Street tries to gauge the impact of a tough foreign-exchange environment, and the state of business spending on tech services amid worries over a downturn. But the company saw gains in hybrid cloud services, products like open-source software platform Red Hat, its consulting services and its zSystems servers and software.

    “Globally, clients view technology as an opportunity to enhance their business, which is evident in the results across our portfolio,” Chief Executive Arvind Krishna said in a statement. He added that he now expects full-year sales growth “above our mid-single-digit model.”

    That’s a bit more optimistic than the forecast he gave over the summer, when IBM reported second-quarter results. Krishna, at that time, said he continued “to expect full-year revenue growth at the high end of our mid-single-digit model.”

    Wall Street expects IBM’s full-year sales to come in at $59.667 billion, according to FactSet. Analysts expect 2022 earnings per share of $9.28. IBM also said it continued to expect around $10 billion in consolidated free cash flow for the year.

    For the third quarter, the company reported a net loss of $3.2 billion, or $3.54 per share, compared with a $1.1 billion profit, or $1.25 per share, in the year-earlier period. On an adjusted basis, IBM earned $1.81 per share.

    Sales came in at $14.1 billion, compared with $13.3 billion a year ago.

    Analysts polled by FactSet expected adjusted earnings per share of $1.79, on revenue of $13.517 billion.

    Revenue in the company’s software segment grew 7.5%. Consulting revenue rose 5.4%, while the company’s infrastructure segment jumped 14.8%.

    Shares gained 4.8% after hours on Wednesday.

    Prior to the results, analysts had zeroed in on the impact of the strong dollar and what Morgan Stanley, in a recent note, described as “continued wage pressure in consulting.” IBM has also been trying to lean more into cloud and AI technology, unloading some businesses in an effort to narrow its focus.

    Last year, in a move toward that goal, IBM spun off its infrastructure services business into Kyndryl Holdings
    KD,
    -2.85%
    .
    But afterward, some analysts raised questions about IBM’s ability to grow sales and compete in the cloud-services industry. Francisco Partners, an investment firm, this year also acquired health-care data and analytics assets that were part of IBM’s Watson Health segment.

    In January, IBM declined to provide an earnings-per-share forecast. The company also changed how it organizes its business segments at the beginning of this year.

    But during the spring, Krishna said he saw “demand staying strong” even if economic growth flattens or enters into a brief recession, with the decision to halt business in Russia, following its invasion of Ukraine, the only drag on results.

    IBM stock is down 8% year to date. By comparison, the S&P 500 Index
    SPX,
    -0.67%

    is down 22%.

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  • Elon Musk teases massive Tesla stock buyback as CFO trims forecast for annual deliveries and stock falls

    Elon Musk teases massive Tesla stock buyback as CFO trims forecast for annual deliveries and stock falls

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    Tesla Inc. Chief Executive Elon Musk suggested the electric-vehicle maker could repurchase up to $10 billion worth of its stock Wednesday, as shares declined following a third-quarter revenue miss and his CFO brought down delivery expectations for the full year.

    Some Tesla
    TSLA,
    +0.84%

    investors have been agitating for a stock buyback after multiple stock splits and the company losing more than a third of its market capitalization in 2022, and Musk said in an earnings conference call that Tesla’s board has discussed a buyback in the range of $5 billion to $10 billion.

    “We debated the buyback idea extensively at board level. The board generally thinks that it makes sense to do a buyback, we want to work through the right process to do a buyback, but it is something possible for us to do a buyback on the order of $5 [billion] to $10 billion even in a downside scenario next year, given next year is very difficult,” he said, adding that it “is obviously pending board review and approval.”

    “So it’s likely that we will do some meaningful buyback,” he concluded.

    The statement did not immediately move Tesla’s stock, as it was followed closely by a forecast revision from Chief Financial Officer Zachary Kirkhorn, who said, “We do expect to be just under 50% growth [for deliveries] due to an increase in the cars in transit at the end of the year.”

    Tesla delivered a record number of cars in the third quarter, but still missed analysts’ expectations and made it more difficult to hit executives’ target for the year of an increase of more than 50% in vehicle deliveries. Kirkhorn said that the company will increase production of cars by 50%, “although we are tracking supply-chain risks which are beyond our control.”

    Shares declined more than 6% following the car company’s earnings report. Tesla reported third-quarter earnings of $3.29 billion, or 95 cents a share, on sales of $21.45 billion, up from $13.76 billion a year ago. After adjusting for stock-based compensation, the electric-vehicle manufacturer reported earnings of $1.05 a share, up from 62 cents a share a year ago.

    Analysts on average were expecting adjusted earnings of $1 a share on sales of $21.98 billion, according to FactSet. Tesla shares declined about 5% in after-hours trading immediately following the release of the results, after closing with a 0.8% increase to $222.04 in the regular trading session.

    Tesla shares have fallen more than 37% so far this year, a harder descent than the 22% decline of the S&P 500 index
    SPX,
    -0.67%
    ,
    after years of outsize gains. Pundits have put forth a variety of reasons for the downturn, including increasing competition in the EV market, negative press around Tesla’s full-self-driving claims and actual performance, and Musk’s attention being diverted to his attempt to acquire Twitter Inc.
    TWTR,
    +0.10%
    .

    Don’t miss: Market share for electric vehicles expected to roughly double

    None of that cowed Musk, however. He predicted that Tesla would be worth as much as the two most valuable companies in the world, Apple Inc.
    AAPL,
    +0.08%

    and Saudi Arabian Oil Co.
    2222,
    +0.42%
    ,
    combined. Both companies have market capitalizations topping $2 trillion.

    “Now I am of the opinion that we can far exceed Apple’s current market,” Musk said on the call, after referencing a previous prediction that Tesla would reach Apple’s then-record market cap. “In fact, I see a potential path for Tesla to be worth more than Apple and Saudi Aramco combined. That doesn’t mean it will happen or that it will be easy, in fact it will be very difficult, require a lot of work, very creative new products, expansion and always good luck. But for the first time I’m seeing, I see a way for Tesla to be, let’s say roughly twice the value of Saudi Aramco.”

    In a preview of the report Tuesday, Wedbush Securities analyst Daniel Ives said that “the Street is starting to worry that the bloom is coming off the rose in the Tesla story with delivery shortfalls front and center.”

    “Between logistical issues in China, supply-chain problems, FSD black-eye moments, the Musk Twitter fiasco and EV competition increasing across the board, there is growing pressure on Musk & Co. to prove themselves,” Ives wrote.

    Tesla’s automotive gross margin, which declined in the second quarter despite price increases that Musk called “embarrassing,” were the same sequentially at 27.9%. Operating margin increased both sequentially and year-over-year, however, to 17.2% from 14.6% both in the third quarter a year ago and the previous quarter.

    Earnings preview: Do record Tesla deliveries mask a demand problem?

    In their communications with investors on Wednesday, Tesla executives disclosed that they will change the process for one of their most challenging tasks of late — transporting cars — in hopes of bringing costs down.

    “We are reaching such significant delivery volumes in the final weeks of each quarter that transportation capacity is becoming expensive and difficult to secure. As a result, we began transitioning to a smoother delivery pace, leading to more vehicles in transit at the end of the quarter,” the company’s shareholder deck reads. “We expect that smoothing our outbound logistics throughout the quarter will improve cost per vehicle.”

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  • These 27 stocks can give you a more diversified portfolio than the S&P 500 — and that’s a key advantage right now

    These 27 stocks can give you a more diversified portfolio than the S&P 500 — and that’s a key advantage right now

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    You probably already know that because of market-capitalization weighting, a broad index such as the S&P 500
    SPX,
    -0.67%

    can be concentrated in a handful of stocks. Index funds are popular for good reasons — they tend to have low expenses and it is difficult for active managers to outperform them over the long term.

    For example, look at the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
    SPY,
    -0.71%
    ,
    which tracks the S&P 500 by holding all of its stocks by the same weighting as the index. Five stocks — Apple Inc.
    AAPL,
    +0.08%
    ,
    Microsoft Corp.
    MSFT,
    -0.85%
    ,
    Amazon.com Inc.
    AMZN,
    -1.11%
    ,
    Alphabet Inc.
    GOOG,
    -1.08%

    GOOGL,
    -1.13%

    and Tesla Inc.
    TSLA,
    +0.84%
    ,
    make up 21.5% of the portfolio.

    But there are other considerations when it comes to diversification — namely, factors. During an interview, Scott Weber of Vaughan Nelson Investment Management in Houston explained how groups of stock and commodities can move together, adding to a lack of diversification in a typical portfolio or index fund.

    Weber co-manages the $293 million Natixis Vaughan Nelson Select Fund
    VNSAX,
    -0.96%
    ,
    which carries a five-star rating (the highest) from investment-researcher Morningstar, and has outperformed its benchmark, the S&P 500.

    Vaughan Nelson is a Houston-based affiliate of Natixis Investment Managers, with about $13 billion in assets under management, including $5 billion managed under the same strategy as the fund, including the Natixis Vaughan Nelson Select ETF
    VNSE,
    -0.87%
    .
    The ETF was established in Sept, 2020, so does not yet have a Morningstar rating.

    Factoring-in the factors

    Weber explained how he and colleagues incorporate 35 factors into their portfolio selection process. For example, a fund might hold shares of real-estate investment trusts (REITs), financial companies and energy producers. These companies are in different sectors, as defined by Standard & Poor’s. Yet their performance may be correlated.

    Weber pointed out that REITs, for example, were broken out of the financial sector to become their own sector in 2016. “Did that make REIT’s more sensitive to interest rates? The answer is no,” he said. “The S&P sector buckets are somewhat  better than arbitrary, but they are not perfect.”

    Of course 2022 is something of an exception, with so many assets dropping in price at the same time. But over the long term, factor analysis can identify correlations and lead money managers to limit their investments in companies, sectors or industries whose prices tend to move together. This style has helped the Natixis Vaughan Nelson Select Fund outperform against its benchmark, Weber said.

    Getting back to the five largest components of the S&P 500, they are all tech-oriented, even though only two, Apple and Microsoft, are in the information technology sector, while Alphabet is in the communications sector and Tesla is in the consumer discretionary sector. “Regardless of the sectors,” they tend to move together, Weber said.

    Exposure to commodity prices, timing of revenue streams through economic cycles (which also incorporates currency exposure), inflation and many other items are additional factors that Weber and his colleagues incorporate into their broad allocation strategy and individual stock selections.

    For example, you might ordinarily expect inflation, real estate and gold to move together, Weber said. But as we are seeing this year, with high inflation and rising interest rates, there is downward pressure on real-estate prices, while gold prices
    GC00,
    -0.01%

    have declined 10% this year.

    Digging further, the factors also encompass sensitivity of investments to U.S. and other countries’ government bonds of various maturities, credit spreads between corporate and government bonds in developed countries, exchange rates, and measures of liquidity, price volatility and momentum.

    Stock selection

    The largest holding of the Select fund is NextEra Energy Inc.
    NEE,
    -1.89%
    ,
    which owns FPL, Florida’s largest electric utility. FPL is phasing-out coal plants and replacing power-generating capacity with natural gas as well as wind and solar facilities.

    Weber said: “There’s not a company on the planet that is better at getting alternate (meaning solar and wind) generation deployed. But because they own FPL, some of my investors say it is one of the largest carbon emitters on the planet.”

    He added that “as a consequence of their skill in operating, they re generating amazing returns for investors.” NextEra’s share shave returned 446% over the past 10 years. One practice that has helped to elevate the company’s return on equity, and presumably its stock price, has been “dropping assets down” into NextEra Energy Partners LP
    NEP,
    -2.61%
    ,
    which NEE manages, Weber said. He added that the assets put into the partnership tend to be “great at cash-flow generation, but not on achieving growth.”

    When asked for more examples of stocks in the fund that may provide excellent long-term returns, Weber mentioned Monolithic Power Systems Inc.
    MPWR,
    -0.24%
    ,
    as a way to take advantage of the broad decline in semiconductor stocks this year. (The iShares Semiconductor ETF
    SOXX,
    +0.64%

    has declined 21% this year, while industry stalwarts Nvidia Corp.
    NVDA,
    +0.70%

    and Advanced Micro Devices Inc.
    AMD,
    -1.19%

    are down 59% and 60%, respectively.)

    He said Monolithic Power has been consistently making investments that improve its return on invested capital (ROIC). A company’s ROIC is its profit divided by the sum of the carrying value of stock it has issued over the years and its current debt. It doesn’t reflect the stock price and is considered a good measure of a management team’s success at making investment decisions and managing projects. Monolithic Power’s ROICC for 2021 was 21.8%, according to FactSet, rising from 13.2% five years earlier.

    “We want to see a business generating a return on capital in excess of its cost of capital. In addition, they need to invest their capital at incrementally improving returns,” Weber said.

    Another example Weber gave of a stock held by the fund is Dollar General Corp.
    DG,
    +0.33%
    ,
    which he called a much better operator than rival Dollar Tree Inc.
    DLTR,
    +0.14%
    ,
    which owns Family Dollar. He cited DG’s roll-out of frozen-food and fresh food offerings, as well as its growth runway: “They still have 8,000 or 9,000 stores to build-out” in the U.S., he said.

    Fund holdings

    In order to provide a full current list of stocks held under Weber’s strategy, here are the 27 stocks held by the the Natixis Vaughan Select ETF as of Sept. 30. The largest 10 positions made up 49% of the portfolio:

    Company

    Ticker

    % of portfolio

    NextEra Energy Inc.

    NEE,
    -1.89%
    5.74%

    Dollar General Corp.

    DG,
    +0.33%
    5.51%

    Danaher Corp.

    DHR,
    -2.89%
    4.93%

    Microsoft Corp.

    MSFT,
    -0.85%
    4.91%

    Amazon.com Inc.

    AMZN,
    -1.11%
    4.90%

    Sherwin-Williams Co.

    SHW,
    -2.53%
    4.80%

    Wheaton Precious Metals Corp.

    WPM,
    -2.28%
    4.76%

    Intercontinental Exchange Inc.

    ICE,
    -1.16%
    4.52%

    McCormick & Co.

    MKC,
    +0.11%
    4.48%

    Clorox Co.

    CLX,
    +1.27%
    4.39%

    Aon PLC Class A

    AON,
    +0.21%
    4.33%

    Jack Henry & Associates Inc.

    JKHY,
    -0.97%
    4.08%

    Motorola Solutions Inc.

    MSI,
    -0.64%
    4.08%

    Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc.

    VRTX,
    -2.72%
    4.01%

    Union Pacific Corp.

    UNP,
    -0.78%
    3.99%

    Alphabet Inc. Class A

    GOOGL,
    -1.13%
    3.03%

    Johnson & Johnson

    JNJ,
    -0.80%
    2.98%

    Nvidia Corp.

    NVDA,
    +0.70%
    2.92%

    Cogent Communications Holdings Inc.

    CCOI,
    -2.10%
    2.81%

    Kosmos Energy Ltd.

    KOS,
    +5.62%
    2.68%

    VeriSign Inc.

    VRSN,
    -0.43%
    2.15%

    Chemed Corp.

    CHE,
    -0.73%
    2.06%

    Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class B

    BRK.B,
    -1.18%
    2.00%

    Saia Inc.

    SAIA,
    -4.36%
    1.97%

    Monolithic Power Systems Inc.

    MPWR,
    -0.24%
    1.96%

    Entegris Inc.

    ENTG,
    -0.17%
    1.93%

    Luminar Technologies Inc. Class A

    LAZR,
    -6.90%
    0.96%

    Source: Natixis Funds

    You can click on the tickers for more about each company. Click here for a detailed guide to the wealth of information available free on the MarketWatch.com quote page.

    Fund performance

    The Natixis Vaughan Select Fund was established on June 29, 2012. Here’s a 10-year chart showing the total return of the fund’s Class A shares against that of the S&P 500, with dividends reinvested. Sales charges are excluded from the chart and the performance numbers. In the current environment for mutual-fund distribution, sales charges are often waived for purchases of new shares through investment advisers.


    FactSet

    Here’s a comparison of returns for 2022 and average annual returns for various periods of the fund’s Class A shares to that of the S&P 500 and its Morningstar fund category through Oct. 18:

     

    Total return – 2022 through Oct. 18

    Average return – 3 Years

    Average return – 5 Years

    Average return – 10 years

    Vaughan Nelson Select Find – Class A

    -20.2%

    11.8%

    10.8%

    13.0%

    S&P 500

    -21.0%

    9.4%

    9.7%

    12.0%

    Morningstar Large Blend category

    -20.3%

    8.1%

    8.2%

    10.7%

    Sources: Morningstar, FactSet

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  • Netflix Adds a Better-Than-Expected 2.4 Million Subscribers

    Netflix Adds a Better-Than-Expected 2.4 Million Subscribers

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    Netflix


    shares were trading sharply higher after the streaming giant posted better-than-expected subscriber growth for the third quarter.

    The company added 2.41 million net new subscribers in the quarter, beating its own forecast of 1 million additions. Netflix (ticker: NFLX) said it expects to add another 4.5 million subscribers in the December quarter.

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  • United Airlines says travel demand is stronger than recession pressures; shares rally

    United Airlines says travel demand is stronger than recession pressures; shares rally

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    United Airlines Holdings Inc. stock rallied after hours Tuesday after the airline said it expected the travel rebound to weather a shakier economy in the months ahead and reported third-quarter results that beat expectations.

    “Looking forward through the end of the year, the airline expects the strong COVID recovery trends to continue to overcome the recessionary pressures in the macroeconomic environment,” company executives said in a statement.

    That backdrop — along with tighter flight networks and changes in how people work — helped justify the airline’s more upbeat forecast for the fourth quarter. United Airlines
    UAL,
    +3.19%

    said it expected adjusted fourth-quarter operating margin of around 10%, the first time the figure would end above pre-pandemic 2019 levels.

    United also forecast adjusted fourth-quarter earnings per share of between $2.00 and $2.25, well above FactSet forecasts for 98 cents per share. The carrier also said it expected a 24% to 25% gain in total fourth-quarter unit revenue — a much-watched industry metric that measures sales as spread out across an airline’s flight capacity — when compared to the same period in 2019.

    Adjusted fourth-quarter unit costs were seen up between 11% and 12%, and roughly 15% for the full year, when compared to the respective periods in 2019.

    For the third quarter, United reported net income of $942 million, or $2.86 per share, compared with $473 million, or $1.44 per share, in the prior-year quarter.

    On an adjusted basis, the company earned $2.81 per share, compared with a $1.02 per-share loss in the quarter a year ago and $4.07 in 2019. Revenue was $12.877 billion, compared with $7.75 billion a year ago and $11.38 billion in 2019.

    Analysts polled by FactSet expected adjusted earnings of $2.28 per share, on revenue of $12.743 billion.

    Shares jumped 7% after the market’s close. American Airlines Group Inc.
    AAL,
    +3.79%
    ,
    which reports earnings on Thursday, rose 3.6% after hours.

    United, in its earnings release, also called out three demand trends that it said were “more than fully offsetting any economic headwinds.” It said that “Air travel is still in the COVID recovery phase, hybrid work gives customers the freedom and flexibility to travel for leisure more often, and external supply challenges will limit industry supply for years to come.”

    The carrier said it expected total flight capacity, a measure of available seats on flights, to be down between 9% and 10% for the fourth quarter and down around 13% for the full year, when compared to 2019 levels.

    United reported as analysts look for cracks in the travel industry’s rebound and holiday demand, after eager travelers this summer ran into flight delays and cancellations, insufficient staffing and severe weather. Airfares and fuel costs are more expensive — a function of strong demand and thinner supplies. Aircraft supply is tight, some executives have said. Airlines have also tried to bulk up flight crews, particularly pilots, after encouraging buyouts in 2020, as the pandemic left the industry without passengers and burning through cash.

    Delta Air Lines Inc.
    DAL,
    +3.34%

    last week said it expected fourth-quarter sales to grow from pre-pandemic levels, as demand for travel, after two years of pandemic-related restraint, holds up against rising prices.

    “The travel recovery continues as consumer spend shifts to experiences and demand improves in corporate and international,” Delta CEO Ed Bastian said in its earnings release.

    Raymond James analyst Savanthi Syth, in a research note last week, said she expected United to see similar momentum, helped by corporate travel and international demand.

    She said American and JetBlue Airways Corp.
    JBLU,
    +1.90%

    should benefit to a lesser degree, “due to large corp and transatlantic exposure at the former and large coastal-city exposure at the latter.” JetBlue reports earnings on Oct. 25.

    Delta’s international-unit revenue growth outpaced that in its domestic business for the first time since the pandemic started. Leisure travel to Europe helped propel results, as did strong demand for Delta’s premium-class seats. Bastian said he expected Delta’s flight network to be fully restored by summer next year.

    “Demand has not come close to being quenched by a hectic summer travel season,” he said on Delta’s earnings call. “At the same time, industry supply is constrained by aircraft availability, regional pilot shortages and hiring and training needs.” 

    Delta rose 3% after the bell on Tuesday.

    United Airlines stock is down 15% so far this year. By comparison, the S&P 500 Index
    SPX,
    +1.14%

    is down 22% over that time.

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  • Netflix snaps streak of subscriber declines and beats on earnings, stock jumps 15%

    Netflix snaps streak of subscriber declines and beats on earnings, stock jumps 15%

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    Netflix Inc. added more than 2 million subscribers in the third quarter after stumbling into 2022 with two consecutive quarterly declines, a rebound that sent shares more than 15% higher in after-hours trading Tuesday.

    Netflix 
    NFLX,
    -1.73%

    reported a net gain of 2.41 million subscribers in the third quarter, while analysts on average were forecasting 1.1 million net additions, according to FactSet. That follows a decline of roughly 200,000 subscribers in the first quarter and nearly a million in the second quarter, which has led the company to plan massive changes, including a cheaper, ad-supported streaming tier set to arrive in the fourth quarter.

    In a letter to shareholders, Netflix executives said they expect 4.5 million new subscribers to join in the fourth quarter, with revenue forecast to grow to $7.78 billion from $7.71 billion a year ago. Analysts on average were estimating revenue of $7.97 billion and a net subscriber gain of 4 million for the fourth quarter, according to FactSet.

    “After a challenging first half, we believe we’re on a path to reaccelerate growth,” executives wrote in the letter.

    The news sent Netflix shares up about 15% in after-hours trading following the release of the results, after closing with a 1.7% drop at $240.86. The stretch of subscriber declines has filleted Netflix shares, which have swooned 60% so far this year while the broader S&P 500 index
    SPX,
    +1.14%

    has declined 22.8%.

    The streaming-video giant’s downturn after a pandemic-boosted surge has only intensified pressure from rival streaming services at Walt Disney Co. 
    DIS,
    +1.18%
    ,
     Apple Inc. 
    AAPL,
    +0.94%
    ,
    Amazon.com Inc. 
    AMZN,
    +2.26%
    ,
    Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. 
    WBD,
    +4.55%
    ,
    Comcast Corp. 
    CMCSA,
    -0.23%

    and Paramount Global 
    PARA,
    +1.56%
    .

    That didn’t stop Netflix executives from taking a pot shot at streaming rivals over profitability. “Our competitors are investing heavily to drive subscribers and engagement, but building a large, successful streaming business is hard — we estimate they are all losing money, with combined 2022 operating losses well over $10 billion, vs. Netflix’s $5 to $6 billion annual operating profit,” Netflix executives said in the shareholder letter.

    A dramatic shift in the video-streaming climate, one in which Disney surpassed Netflix as market leader in July, has prompted a radical makeover at Netflix. Last week, the company announced its long-awaited advertising-supported tier, which debuts Nov. 3 in the U.S. for $6.99 a month. Another 11 countries, including Canada and Mexico, will get the service by Nov. 10. The company has also vowed a crackdown on shared accounts, and is pushing forward on gaming.

    The advertising-supported tier directly acknowledges competition and the necessity of Netflix “adapting to the streaming landscape’s new normal,” Insider Intelligence analyst Ross Benes said in a note late Tuesday.

    For more: Netflix lost its streaming crown to Disney. Here’s how execs expect to win it back.

    Netflix announced third-quarter earnings of $1.4 billion, or $3.10 a share, down from $3.16 a share a year ago. Netflix revenue improved to $7.93 billion in the quarter from $7.48 billion in the same period a year ago, but missed diminished expectations. Analysts polled by FactSet expected earnings of $2.14 a share on sales of $7.84 billion, estimates that had dipped in recent days.

    Tuesday’s results follow some serious self-reflection among Netflix executives on how to stanch a decline in visits among subscribers that has led to cancellations. Co-CEO Reed Hastings has consulted with staff to find ways to make subscribers visit the platform more frequently, according to reports by The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg News.

    One such strategy is cracking down on multiple users sharing the same account. In the shareholder letter, Netflix said it has “landed on a thoughtful approach to monetize account sharing and we’ll begin rolling this out more broadly starting in early 2023.”

    “After listening to consumer feedback, we are going to offer the ability for borrowers to transfer their Netflix profile into their own account, and for sharers to manage their devices more easily and to create sub-accounts (‘extra member’), if they want to pay for family or friends,” the letter said. “In countries with our lower-priced ad-supported plan, we expect the profile transfer option for borrowers to be especially popular.”

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  • McDonald’s ‘adult Happy Meal’ toys are selling for up to $300,000 on eBay

    McDonald’s ‘adult Happy Meal’ toys are selling for up to $300,000 on eBay

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    When it comes to nostalgia, McDonald’s customers sure are lovin’ it. 

    The burger chain brought back its Halloween pails on Tuesday, which haven’t been offered in the U.S. since 2016. The plastic trick-or-treat buckets decorated to look like a ghost, a goblin or a jack-o’-lantern (aka McBoo, McGoblin and McPunk’n, respectively) quickly began trending among real-time Google searches on Tuesday. 

    But the appetite for these Halloween buckets is nothing compared to the recent McDonald’s
    MCD,
    +1.10%

    collaboration with streetwear company Cactus Plant Flea Market, which dished out a $12-$13 box (better known as the “adult Happy Meal”) that featured a food combo and a collectible figurine targeted toward the grownups who grew up on Happy Meals.

    They sold out quickly, and now some enterprising fast food lovers are hawking the adult Happy Meal toys over online resale sites for thousands of dollars.

    So what’s the appeal? Nostalgia, nostalgia, nostalgia. “Everyone remembers their first Happy Meal as a kid … and the can’t-sit-still feeling as you dug in to see what was inside,” McDonald’s wrote in a press release. “And now, we’re reimagining that experience in a whole new way — this time, for adults.”

    The limited-edition Cactus Plant Flea Market Box at McDonald’s rolled out on Oct. 3, feeding the inner child of the average customer by offering a choice of a Big Mac or 10-piece chicken nuggets main dish, french fries and a soft drink, as well as one of four “toys” featuring redesigned McDonald’s mascots like the Grimace, the Hamburgler and Birdie, as well as a new “Cactus Buddy!” figure (yes, the exclamation point is part of his name.)

    The Cactus Plant Flea Market boxes sold out in many places on the same day that they came out. Some McDonald’s employees took to Reddit and TikTok to share how much they were not lovin’ it — which was reminiscent of the hatred many Starbucks
    SBUX,
    +0.07%

    employees felt toward the viral unicorn frappuccino in 2017

    And now, both the toys and the boxes have become near impossible to come by — unless you’re willing to cough up a lot of cash. A medium Cactus Plant Flea Market Box costs about $12, with large box closer to $13 — and one New Jersey mom noted that in her area, a Big Mac combo with fries and a drink runs under $10, so she spent $3 basically get the collectible toy.

    But one eBay listing offering three of the collectible Cactus Plant Flea Market, still unwrapped and in their original packaging, is asking for a whopping $300,000.

    The sold-out Cactus Plant Flea Market Boxes, aka McDonald’s “adult Happy Meals,” are popping up on resale sites for thousands of dollars.


    Screenshot

    Another listing on the fashion marketplace Grailed, which is marked as an “authenticated” post, features the “Cactus Buddy!” figure for the asking price of $39,999 (10% off of the original $44,444 price tag.) 

    The sold-out Cactus Plant Flea Market Boxes, aka McDonald’s “adult Happy Meals,” are popping up on resale sites for thousands of dollars.


    Screenshot

    But there are dozens of other listings for the individual toys and boxes on resale sites such as eBay and Facebook Marketplace in the much more palatable $10-$30 range, or bundles with all four collectible figurines running between $60-$70

    McDonald’s was not immediately available for comment, but a rep told Axios that, “The hype for the Cactus Plant Flea Market Box was so real that some of our restaurants have sold out of the limited-edition experience.” They added that, “We’re thrilled by the excitement we’re seeing.”

    The official McDonald’s Twitter account has also been fielding queries from disappointed potential customers who haven’t been able to get their hands on any of the adult Happy Meals, apologizing that this was only a limited time offer. 

    Time will tell if more “adult Happy Meals” will be offered in the future. There’s clearly a customer base hungry for more. 

    This isn’t McDonald’s first viral sensation, of course. The fast food giant has also scored success with celebrity collaborations featuring K-Pop sensation BTS, or singing diva Mariah Carey — which also reportedly sold out.

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  • Stocks are rallying now, but the 9 painful stages of this bear market are not even halfway done

    Stocks are rallying now, but the 9 painful stages of this bear market are not even halfway done

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    The official definition of a bear market is a 20% or greater decline from an index’s previous high. Accordingly, the three major U.S. stock-market benchmarks — the Nasdaq
    COMP,
    +0.90%
    ,
    the S&P 500
    SPX,
    +1.14%

    and the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    +1.12%

    — are currently all in a bear market.

    Based on my work with stock market strategist Mark D. Cook, a typical bear market goes through nine stages. Right now we are in Stage 4. Keep in mind that a bear market does not always follow these stages in the exact order. 

    1. Failed rallies: Failed rallies represent the first clue that a bear market is here. Failed rallies often appear before the market “officially” becomes a bear market. If the rally doesn’t have legs and cannot go higher for the next few days or weeks, it confirms that the bear’s claws have sunk in. Along the way, many failed rallies will fool bulls into thinking the worst is over. Watch the rallies for bear-market clues. The rally so far this week is an example. Now in its second day, a failure of this rally would confirm that stocks are not yet out of a bear market.

    2. Low-volume rallies: Another bear market clue is that stocks move higher on low volume. This is a clue the major financial institutions aren’t buying, although algos and hedge funds might be. It’s easy for the algos to push prices higher in a low-volume environment, one of the reasons for monster rallies that go nowhere the following day (i.e. a “one-day wonder”). 

    3. Terrible-looking charts: The easiest way to identify a bear market is by looking at a stock chart. It goes without saying that the charts look dreadful, both the daily and the weekly. While rallies help relieve some of the pressure, they typically don’t last long.

    4. Strong selloffs: It’s been a couple of years since markets have experienced extremely strong selloffs, but that record was broken the week of September 26 when the S&P 500 hit a new low for 2022. These strong selloffs are typical of a bear market, followed by rallies that don’t last (a roller-coaster that so far has played out during October).

    5. Mutual-fund redemptions: During this stage, after looking at their quarterly and monthly statements, horrified investors throw in the towel and sell their mutual funds (also, some investors refuse to look at those reports). As a result, mutual fund companies are forced to sell (which negatively affects the stock market). Typically, when the indexes fall more than 20%, mutual fund redemptions increase. 

    6. Complacency turns to panic: As more investor money leaves the market, many investors panic. The most bullish investors are holding on for dear life but are buying fewer stocks. The most nervous investors sell to avoid risking precious gains. 

    7. All news is bad news: As the bear market pushes stock prices lower, it seems as if most economic data and financial news is negative. Many people become skeptical of the bullish predictions from market professionals, who earlier had promised the market would keep going up. In the depths of the worst bear markets, some bullish professionals are jeered or ignored. Even die-hard bulls are increasingly nervous as the market heads lower and lower (with occasional rallies along the way). 

    8. Bulls throw in the towel: As trading volume increases on down days, and some investors experience 30% or higher losses, they give up hope and sell. The market turns into a free-for-all as even the Fed appears to have lost control. Many in the media admit that a bear market has arrived. 

    9. Capitulation: After weeks and months of selloffs (and occasional rallies), many investors are panicked. Investors realize that it may take years before their portfolios will return to breakeven, and some stocks never will. In the final stage of a bear market, trading volume is more than three times higher than normal. Even some of true believers liquidate positions, as many portfolios are down by 40% or 50% and more. Almost every financial asset has fallen, with the exception of fixed income such as CDs and T-bills. Traders or investors who trade on margin feel the most pain.

    Read: ‘Material risk’ looms over stocks as investors face bear market’s ‘second act,’ warns Morgan Stanley

    Take action

    This bear market is fairly young, but already there have been so many failed rallies that many investors are too afraid to buy. Some investors with cash are looking for bargains, but it takes nerves of steel to buy when everyone is selling.

    One of the keys to success in the market is to buy what people don’t want. Here are several ideas of what to do (and it is not too late to act): 

    1. During bear markets, a key to survival is diversification. If you are patient and are willing to hold positions for years, dollar-cost average into index funds on the way down. 

    2. In the early stages of a bear market, consider moving to the sidelines with CDs or Treasury bills. 

    3. Consider building a strong cash position, although inflation will cut into some of those gains. Nevertheless, losing to inflation is better than losing 30% in the stock market. The goal is not to lose money; in a bear market, cash is king. 

    The length and volatility of every bear market is different. No one can predict how this one will turn out, but based on previous bear markets, there’s still a long way to go before it’s over. 

    Michael Sincere (michaelsincere.com) is the author of “Understanding Options” and “Understanding Stocks.” His latest book, “How to Profit in the Stock Market” (McGraw Hill, 2022), explores bull -and bear market investing strategies. 

    More: Could there be a stock market rally? Probably. Would it be the end of the bear market? Probably not.

    Also read: Whatever you’re feeling now about stocks is normal bear-market grief — and the worst is yet to come

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  • Home builders sentiment index falls for record tenth month in a row in October. Home builders say the ‘situation is unhealthy and unsustainable.’

    Home builders sentiment index falls for record tenth month in a row in October. Home builders say the ‘situation is unhealthy and unsustainable.’

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    The numbers:  The National Association of Home Builders’ (NAHB) monthly confidence fell 8 points to 38 in October, the trade group said on Tuesday.

    It’s the tenth month in a row that the index has fallen.

    Outside of the pandemic, the October reading of 38 is the lowest level since August 2012.

    A year ago, the index stood at 80.

    The index’s ten-month drop is a new record. The index last fell for 8 months straight in 2006 and 2007.

    Key details: All three gauges that underpin the overall builder-confidence index fell.

    • The gauge that marks current sales conditions fell by 9 points. 

    • The component that assesses sales expectations for the next six months fell by 11 points.

    • And the gauge that measures traffic of prospective buyers fell by 6 points.

    All four NAHB regions posted a drop in builder confidence, led by the south and the west. 

    It’s also likely that this year will be the first time since 2011 that single-family starts see a decline, the NAHB added.

    Big picture: Builders continue to struggle to find buyers with the current rate environment.

    Now they’re saying they’re worried about that depressed demand impacting supply moving forward.

    Specifically, they’re concerned about housing affordability worsening, with potentially fewer new homes being built in the future.

    Mortgage rates have doubled from last year, now exceeding 7%, which has considerably cooled buyer demand. 

    Home price growth is moderating, but prices have not come down substantially — yet. 

    The median sales price for a new home was $436,800 in August, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

    What the NAHB said: Builders are expecting single-family starts to fall for the first time in 11 years — and expect additional declines through 2023, said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz, due to the Federal Reserve’s projected rate hikes to control inflation.

    While some analysts have suggested that the housing market is now more ‘balanced,’ the truth is that the homeownership rate will decline in the quarters ahead as higher interest rates, and ongoing elevated construction costs continue to price out a large number of prospective buyers,” he added.

    “This situation is unhealthy and unsustainable,” Jerry Konter, a home builder and developer from Savannah, Ga. and the NAHB’s chairman, said in a statement.
    “Policymakers must address this worsening housing affordability crisis,” he added.

    What are they saying? “The housing sector – sentiment, building activity and sales – is collapsing under the weight of a rapid increase in interest rates and elevated prices, which are crimping affordability and demand,” Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, wrote in a note.

    So expect building activity to be depressed, she added.

    Market reaction: The yield on the 10-year Treasury note
    TMUBMUSD10Y,
    3.989%

    fell to 3.98% on Tuesday morning.

    While the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF
    XHB,
    +2.15%

    traded slightly higher during the morning session, and the big home-builder stocks, from D.R. Horton Inc.
    DHI,
    +2.90%

    to Toll Brothers
    TOL,
    +1.87%

    to Lennar
    LEN,
    +2.97%
    ,
    edged higher.

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  • Microsoft Lays Off Employees After Slowdown in Earnings Growth

    Microsoft Lays Off Employees After Slowdown in Earnings Growth

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    The software giant said earlier this year that it planned to reduce staff by less than 1%

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  • Russia Wipes Out Exxon’s Stake in Sakhalin Oil-and-Gas Project

    Russia Wipes Out Exxon’s Stake in Sakhalin Oil-and-Gas Project

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    Russia Wipes Out Exxon’s Stake in Sakhalin Oil-and-Gas Project

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  • ‘Material risk’ looms over stocks as investors face bear market’s ‘second act,’ warns Morgan Stanley

    ‘Material risk’ looms over stocks as investors face bear market’s ‘second act,’ warns Morgan Stanley

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    Stock-market investors have been adjusting to the jump in interest rates amid high inflation, but they have yet to cope with profit headwinds faced by the S&P 500, according to Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.

    “While a rate peak may solidify estimates for the equity risk premium and valuation multiples, equity investors still face the bear market’s second act — the earnings outlook,” said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in a note Monday. 

    “They have been slow to recognize that pricing power and operating margins, which hit all-time highs in the past two years, are unsustainable,” she said. “Even without a recession, the mean reversion of profits in 2023 translates to a 10%-to-15% decline from current estimates.”


    MORGAN STANLEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT NOTE DATED OCT. 17 2022

    Unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus during the throes of the pandemic had led to the largest U.S. companies booking record operating margins that were 150 to 200 basis points above norms seen in the past decade, according to Shalett. 

    See: Stock market’s wild gyrations put earnings in focus as inflation crushes Fed ‘pivot’ hopes

    She said that company profits may now be imperiled by slowing growth, with “demand skewing toward services” after pulling forward toward goods earlier in the pandemic, and a likely reversal in “extremely strong” pricing power as the Fed fights surging inflation with interest-rate hikes.

    “Such risks are not discounted in 2023 consensus yet, constituting a material risk to stocks for the remainder of the year,” Shalett said.

    While many sectors have discounted the potential drop in 2023 profits from current estimates that could stir headwinds even with no recession, “the megacap secular growth stocks that dominate market-cap indexes have not,” she warned. “And those indexes are where risk gets repriced in the bear market’s final stages.”

    Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. equity strategist Mike Wilson estimates as much as 11% downside from consensus estimates, with his base-case, earnings-per-share forecast for the S&P 500 for 2023 being $212, according to Shalett’s note. 

    U.S. stocks were bouncing Monday, with major stock benchmarks trading sharply higher in the afternoon, after sinking Friday amid inflation concerns as earnings season got under way. The S&P 500
    SPX,
    +2.65%

    was up 2.7% in afternoon trading, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    +1.86%

    gained 1.9% and the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 3.5%, FactSet data show, last check. 

    In the bond market, Treasury rates were trading slightly lower Monday afternoon, after the 2-year yield hit a 15-year high and the 10-year yield notched a 14-year high on Friday, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Two-year yields ended last week at 4.507%, the highest level since August 8, 2007 based on 3 p.m. Eastern time levels, while the 10-year rate climbed to 4.005% for its highest rate since Oct. 15, 2008.

    The yield on the 10-year Treasury note
    TMUBMUSD10Y,
    3.992%

    was down about 1 basis point Monday afternoon at around 4%, while two-year yields
    TMUBMUSD02Y,
    4.439%

    fell about five basis points to around 4.45%, FactSet data show, at last check.

    Meanwhile, as investors capitulated to higher inflation, “peak policy rates moved up aggressively in the fed funds futures market, with the terminal rate now at nearly 5%, an aggressive stance that smacks of ‘peak hawkishness,’” according to the Morgan Stanley note.

    “Critically, although the market is still pricing 1.5 cuts in 2023, the January 2024 fed-funds rate is estimated at 4.5%, a comfortable 100 basis points above our forecast” for core inflation measured by the consumer-price index, Shalett wrote.

    “Consider locking in solid short-term yields in bonds and shoring up positions in high growth, dividend-paying stocks,” she said. “Short-duration Treasuries look attractive, especially because the yield is more than 2.5 times that of the dividend yield on the S&P 500.”

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  • These 11 stocks can lead your portfolio’s rebound after the S&P 500 ‘earnings recession’ and a market bottom next year

    These 11 stocks can lead your portfolio’s rebound after the S&P 500 ‘earnings recession’ and a market bottom next year

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    This may surprise you: Wall Street analysts expect earnings for the S&P 500 to increase 8% during 2023, despite all the buzz about a possible recession as the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy to quell inflation.

    Ken Laudan, a portfolio manager at Kornitzer Capital Management in Mission, Kan., isn’t buying it. He expects an “earnings recession” for the S&P 500
    SPX,
    +2.78%

    — that is, a decline in profits of around 10%. But he also expects that decline to set up a bottom for the stock market.

    Laudan’s predictions for the S&P 500 ‘earnings recession’ and bottom

    Laudan, who manages the $83 million Buffalo Large Cap Fund
    BUFEX,
    -2.86%

    and co-manages the $905 million Buffalo Discovery Fund
    BUFTX,
    -2.82%
    ,
    said during an interview: “It is not unusual to see a 20% hit [to earnings] in a modest recession. Margins have peaked.”

    The consensus among analysts polled by FactSet is for weighted aggregate earnings for the S&P 500 to total $238.23 a share in 2023, which would be an 8% increase from the current 2022 EPS estimate of $220.63.

    Laudan said his base case for 2023 is for earnings of about $195 to $200 a share and for that decline in earnings (about 9% to 12% from the current consensus estimate for 2022) to be “coupled with an economic recession of some sort.”

    He expects the Wall Street estimates to come down, and said that “once Street estimates get to $205 or $210, I think stocks will take off.”

    He went further, saying “things get really interesting at 3200 or 3300 on the S&P.” The S&P 500 closed at 3583.07 on Oct. 14, a decline of 24.8% for 2022, excluding dividends.

    Laudan said the Buffalo Large Cap Fund was about 7% in cash, as he was keeping some powder dry for stock purchases at lower prices, adding that he has been “fairly defensive” since October 2021 and was continuing to focus on “steady dividend-paying companies with strong balance sheets.”

    Leaders for the stock market’s recovery

    After the market hits bottom, Laudan expects a recovery for stocks to begin next year, as “valuations will discount and respond more quickly than the earnings will.”

    He expects “long-duration technology growth stocks” to lead the rally, because “they got hit first.” When asked if Nvidia Corp.
    NVDA,
    +6.14%

    and Advanced Micro Devices Inc.
    AMD,
    +3.69%

    were good examples, in light of the broad decline for semiconductor stocks and because both are held by the Buffalo Large Cap Fund, Laudan said: “They led us down and they will bounce first.”

    Laudan said his “largest tech holding” is ASML Holding N.V.
    ASML,
    +3.79%
    ,
    which provides equipment and systems used to fabricate computer chips.

    Among the largest tech-oriented companies, the Buffalo Large Cap fund also holds shares of Apple Inc.
    AAPL,
    +3.09%
    ,
    Microsoft Corp.
    MSFT,
    +3.88%
    ,
    Amazon.com Inc.
    AMZN,
    +6.63%

    and Alphabet Inc.
    GOOG,
    +3.91%

    GOOGL,
    +3.73%
    .

    Laudan also said he had been “overweight’ in UnitedHealth Group Inc.
    UNH,
    +1.77%
    ,
    Danaher Corp.
    DHR,
    +2.64%

    and Linde PLC
    LIN,
    +2.25%

    recently and had taken advantage of the decline in Adobe Inc.’s
    ADBE,
    +2.32%

    price following the announcement of its $20 billion acquisition of Figma, by scooping up more shares.

    Summarizing the declines

    To illustrate what a brutal year it has been for semiconductor stocks, the iShares Semiconductor ETF
    SOXX,
    +2.12%
    ,
    which tracks the PHLX Semiconductor Index
    SOX,
    +2.29%

    of 30 U.S.-listed chip makers and related equipment manufacturers, has dropped 44% this year. Then again, SOXX had risen 38% over the past three years and 81% for five years, underlining the importance of long-term thinking for stock investors, even during this terrible bear market for this particular tech space.

    Here’s a summary of changes in stock prices (again, excluding dividends) and forward price-to-forward-earnings valuations during 2022 through Oct. 14 for every stock mentioned in this article. The stocks are sorted alphabetically:

    Company

    Ticker

    2022 price change

    Forward P/E

    Forward P/E as of Dec. 31, 2021

    Apple Inc.

    AAPL,
    +3.09%
    -22%

    22.2

    30.2

    Adobe Inc.

    ADBE,
    +2.32%
    -49%

    19.4

    40.5

    Amazon.com Inc.

    AMZN,
    +6.63%
    -36%

    62.1

    64.9

    Advanced Micro Devices Inc.

    AMD,
    +3.69%
    -61%

    14.7

    43.1

    ASML Holding N.V. ADR

    ASML,
    +3.79%
    -52%

    22.7

    41.2

    Danaher Corp.

    DHR,
    +2.64%
    -23%

    24.3

    32.1

    Alphabet Inc. Class C

    GOOG,
    +3.91%
    -33%

    17.5

    25.3

    Linde PLC

    LIN,
    +2.25%
    -21%

    22.2

    29.6

    Microsoft Corp.

    MSFT,
    +3.88%
    -32%

    22.5

    34.0

    Nvidia Corp.

    NVDA,
    +6.14%
    -62%

    28.9

    58.0

    UnitedHealth Group Inc.

    UNH,
    +1.77%
    2%

    21.5

    23.2

    Source: FactSet

    You can click on the tickers for more about each company. Click here for Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information available free on the MarketWatch quote page.

    The forward P/E ratio for the S&P 500 declined to 16.9 as of the close on Oct. 14 from 24.5 at the end of 2021, while the forward P/E for SOXX declined to 13.2 from 27.1.

    Don’t miss: This is how high interest rates might rise, and what could scare the Federal Reserve into a policy pivot

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  • A Tesla stock plunge could destroy ‘zombie stocks’ such as GameStop and Peloton, warns equity research firm New Constructs

    A Tesla stock plunge could destroy ‘zombie stocks’ such as GameStop and Peloton, warns equity research firm New Constructs

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    Tesla shares could decline dramatically — and that could mean disaster for a number of stocks that have already seen deep share-price cuts, according to equity research firm New Constructs.

    The research firm, which uses machine learning and natural language processing to parse corporate filings and model economic earnings, called the stocks in danger “zombie stocks,” and defined them as companies with poor business models that are burning cash at an alarming rate and are at risk of seeing their stock decline to $0 per share.

    The research firm estimates there could be some 300 zombie companies across the marketplace.

    “The Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate hikes so far in 2022 have ended the era of free money and exposed a worrisome dynamic throughout capital markets: zombie stocks,” wrote New Constructs CEO David Trainer, in a note.

    See Now: Tesla earnings are coming, but do record deliveries mask a demand problem?

    New Constructs does not define Tesla Inc.
    TSLA,
    +7.01%

    as a “zombie stock,” citing CEO Elon Musk’s ability to raise capital, but does see the electric car manufacturer as a bellwether for the sector. “It shares many of the common characteristics of a zombie stock, such as an outrageous valuation and high cash burn,” wrote Trainer. “We believe Tesla’s unrelenting share price rise over the past three years – where investors completely ignored company fundamentals – inspired the birth of many of today’s zombie stocks.” 

    Tesla reports its third-quarter results after the closing bell on Oct. 19.

    The company’s stock was trading around $220 on Monday, an increase of over 1,000% compared to three years ago. But Trainer feels that Tesla is at risk of falling more than 80% to $25 a share.

    Tesla’s Optimus bot: ‘High school science project’ or robotics game changer?

    Tesla’s stock has fallen 37.6% in 2022, outpacing the S&P 500 Index’s
    SPX,
    +2.65%

    decline of 22.7%.

    “Its valuation remains nosebleed high because the cash flow expectations baked into the stock price are unreasonably optimistic,” Trainer wrote. “Our message to investors is to take profits in Tesla and avoid zombie stocks at all costs.”

    New Constructs recently added cloud-based communication company RingCentral Inc.
    RNG,
    +6.49%

    to its list of “zombie” stocks. Other companies on the list are Freshpet Inc.
    FRPT,
    -2.03%
    ,
     Peloton Interactive Inc.
    PTON,
    +7.04%
    ,
     Carvana Co.
    CVNA,
    +6.30%
    ,
     Snap Inc.
    SNAP,
    +6.01%
    ,
     Beyond Meat Inc.
    BYND,
    +0.64%
    ,
     Rivian Automotive Inc.
    RIVN,
    +6.93%
    ,
     DoorDash Inc.
    DASH,
    +6.15%
    ,
     Shake Shack Inc.
    SHAK,
    +4.01%
    ,
     Chewy Inc.
    CHWY,
    +10.76%
    ,
     Uber Technologies Inc.
    UBER,
    +4.98%
    ,
     Robinhood Markets Inc.
    HOOD,
    +3.24%
    ,
     Tilray Brands Inc.
    TLRY,
    +7.32%
    ,
     Affirm Holdings Inc.
    AFRM,
    +6.72%
    ,
     SunRun Inc.
    RUN,
    +1.70%
    ,
     Blue Apron Holdings Inc.
    APRN,
    +3.26%
    ,
     and meme stocks AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. 
    AMC,
    +6.00%

    and GameStop Corp.
    GME,
    +5.40%
    .

    See Now: RingCentral added to ‘zombie’ stocks list by equity research firm New Constructs

    “Investors are now fed up with these kinds of companies, especially amid this year’s stock market volatility,” wrote New Constructs’ Trainer. “If investors start to give up on Tesla and take profits on the stock, which is up over 1,000% over the past three years, that spells terrible news for all of the other zombie stocks that don’t have the cash-raising luxury that Tesla has.”  

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  • Bank of America Reports Earnings Monday. What Wall Street Is Watching.

    Bank of America Reports Earnings Monday. What Wall Street Is Watching.

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    Bank of America Reports Earnings Monday. What Wall Street Is Watching.

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