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Tag: industrial news

  • Heineken shares tumble on cautious outlook, shortfall in beer volumes growth

    Heineken shares tumble on cautious outlook, shortfall in beer volumes growth

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    Heineken NV shares fell Wednesday after it said organic beer volumes rose in the third quarter by 8.9%, missing market consensus expectations of 12% as taken from its website, and that its outlook was cautious.

    Shares at 0730 GMT were down 9% at EUR80.24.

    The Dutch brewer
    HEIA,
    -9.96%

    HEIO,
    -9.19%

    said said that the weaker than expected results were driven by low-single-digit volume growth in Africa, the Middle East, Europe and the Americas, though the Asia-Pacific region delivered a strong recovery from pandemic-related restrictions with total beer volume growth of 89.6%.

    Net revenue, which excludes excise tax expenses–rose to 7.79 billion euros ($7.76 billion) in the quarter from EUR6.03 billion last year. A company-compiled consensus forecast had seen net revenue at EUR7.88 billion.

    In the nine-month period, net revenue rose 23% to EUR21.27 billion while net profit fell to EUR2.2 billion from EUR3.03 billion. Net profit last year was boosted by an exceptional gain of EUR1.27 billion from the revaluation of a stake in United Breweries in India

    The company backed its guidance for 2022 of a stable-to-modest sequential improvement in adjusted operating profit margin, but didn’t reiterate its previously provided 2023 guidance of adjusted operating profit organic growth in the range of mid- to high-single digits.

    “We increasingly see reasons to be cautious on the macroeconomic outlook, including some signs of softness in consumer demand. We remain vigilant and confident in our EverGreen strategy,” Chairman and Chief Executive Dolf van den Brink said.

    The company said it maintains its efforts to offset input cost inflation with pricing.

    Write to Dominic Chopping at dominic.chopping@wsj.com

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  • Mobileye prices IPO above targeted range to raise nearly $1 billion, and most of it will go to Intel

    Mobileye prices IPO above targeted range to raise nearly $1 billion, and most of it will go to Intel

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    Mobileye Global Inc. priced its initial public offering higher than its targeted range late Tuesday to raise nearly $1 billion, most of which will go to Intel Corp.

    Mobileye priced its initial public offering at $21 late Tuesday, the company announced in a news release, after previously stating a targeted range of $18 to $20; shares are expected to begin trading on the Nasdaq under the ticker symbol “MBLY” on Wednesday. Intel
    INTC,
    +0.85%

    will sell at least 41 million shares of Mobileye, which would raise $861 million, and also agreed to a $100 million concurrent sale of stock to General Atlantic, which would make the total raised at least $961 million.

    Intel paid $15.3 billion to acquire Mobileye in 2017, and was reportedly aiming for a valuation as high as $50 billion when originally planning this IPO, but instead will settle for a basic valuation of roughly $16.7 billion. After a record year with more than 1,000 offerings in 2021, the IPO market has largely dried up in 2022.

    Read: Mobileye IPO: 5 things to know about the Intel autonomous-driving spinoff

    Underwriting banks — Intel listed two dozen underwriters, led by Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
    GS,
    +1.13%

    and Morgan Stanley
    MS,
    +1.36%

    — have access to an additional 6.15 million shares for overallotments, which could push the total raised higher than $1 billion and make Mobileye the second-largest offering of the year. Only two offerings thus far this year have raised at least $1 billion — private-equity firm TPG Inc.
    TPG,
    +4.21%

    raised exactly $1 billion in January, and American International Group Inc. 
    AIG,
    -0.11%

    spinoff Corebridge Financial Inc.
    CRBG,
    +1.36%

    raised at least $1.68 billion in September.

    Intel will receive the bulk of the proceeds of the offering — after promising to make sure that Mobileye has $1 billion in cash and equivalents, the chip maker will take the rest of the proceeds for its own coffers. Wells Fargo analysts calculated that Mobileye will need about $225 million to hit that level, leaving at least $736 million for Intel before fees and other costs.

    Intel will also maintain control of the company after spinning it off, keeping class B shares that will convey 10 votes for each share while selling class A shares that convey one vote per share. Intel will retain more than 99% of the voting power and nearly 94% of the economic ownership of the company, and the Mobileye board is expected to include four members with ties to Intel, including Chief Executive Pat Gelsinger serving as chairman of the board.

    Read also: Intel files for Mobileye IPO, creating a share structure that will keep the chipmaker in control

    Mobileye will continue to be led by founder Amnon Shashua, who served as chief executive before Intel acquired the company and stayed at the helm while it was part of the Silicon Valley chip maker. Shashua founded Mobileye in 1999 and turned it into a pioneer in the field of automated-driving technology and one of Israel’s most prominent tech companies.

    Mobileye filed for the initial public offering at the end of September, when executives were still reportedly hoping for a $30 billion valuation.

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  • Microsoft stock slammed by cloud-growth fears, taking Amazon down with it

    Microsoft stock slammed by cloud-growth fears, taking Amazon down with it

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    Microsoft Corp. shares fell more than 6% in after-hours trading Tuesday as the company’s cloud-computing growth hit a sudden deceleration and executives guided for holiday-season revenue to come in more than $2 billion lower than expectations.

    The Azure cloud-computing business has grown into the largest and most important business for Microsoft
    MSFT,
    +1.38%
    ,
    and there have been concerns about cloud growth as the U.S. faces a potential recession for the first time since the technology became ubiquitous. Microsoft executives said that Azure grew by 35% in their fiscal first quarter, a marked slowdown from Azure’s 40% growth rate in the previous quarter, as well as the 50% growth shown in the same quarter last year; analysts on average were expecting 36.5% growth, according to FactSet.

    Opinion: The cloud boom is coming back to Earth, and that could be scary for tech stocks

    In the current quarter, Chief Financial Officer Amy Hood suggested a similar sequential decline is in store for Azure, saying percentage growth should decline by five points on a constant-currency basis. Hood also suggested that more cost cuts could be coming to Microsoft, after the company confirmed layoffs of fewer than 1,000 employees earlier this month.

    “While we continue to help our customers do more with less, we will do the same internally,” she said. “And you should expect to see our operating-expense growth moderate materially through the year while we focus on growing productivity of the significant head-count investments we’ve made over the last year.”

    Microsoft shares slid to declines of more than 6% in after-hours trading following Hood’s forecast, which was provided in a conference call. Shares closed with a 1.4% increase at $250.66.

    Concerns about cloud growth immediately spread to Azure’s biggest competitor, Amazon Web Services, as Amazon.com Inc. stock
    AMZN,
    +0.65%

    fell more than 4% in after-hours trading.

    Microsoft reported fiscal first-quarter earnings of $17.56 billion, or $2.35 a share, down from $2.71 a share in the same quarter a year ago, when the tech giant disclosed a 44 cent-per-share tax benefit. Revenue increased to $50.1 billion from $45.32 billion a year ago. Analysts on average were expecting earnings of $2.31 a share on sales of $49.66 billion, according to FactSet.

    For the fiscal second quarter, Hood guided for revenue of $52.35 billion to $53.35 billion, while analysts on average were expecting sales of $56.16 billion, according to FactSet. Hood said that “Intelligent Cloud” revenue should land from $21.25 billion to $21.55 billion, while analysts on average were projecting $21.82 billion heading into the print; Microsoft’s other revenue-segment forecasts were even further off analysts’ average expectations.

    Microsoft has also suffered from the strengthening dollar, as well as a sharp downturn in personal-computer sales, which spiked during the pandemic but are now showing record regression.

    For more: The pandemic PC boom is over, but its legacy will live on

    Microsoft reported PC revenue of $13.3 billion for the quarter, roughly flat from $13.31 billion a year before and beating the average analyst estimate of $13.12 billion, according to FactSet. While PCs have long been what consumers largely know Microsoft for, their importance to the company’s financials has declined in recent years as cloud computing has grown in importance.

    “Historically, Windows was a very large driver of Microsoft revenue and, given its strong margins, a disproportionate driver of earnings,” Bernstein analysts wrote in a preview of the report, while maintaining an “overweight” rating. “Over time other businesses, especially Microsoft’s commercial Cloud, have grown fast while the Windows business has grown quite slower, decreasing the relative impact of Windows.”

    The “Intelligent Cloud” segment reported first-quarter revenue of $20.3 billion, up from $16.96 billion a year ago but slightly lower than the average analyst estimate tracked by FactSet of $20.46 billion. Azure’s 35% growth was the slowest Microsoft has reported in records dating back through the prior two fiscal years; Microsoft only reports percentage growth for its Azure cloud-computing product, even as main rivals Amazon.com Inc.
    AMZN,
    +0.65%

    and Alphabet Inc.
    GOOGL,
    +1.91%

    GOOG,
    +1.90%

    report revenue and profit margin for their cloud-computing products.

    Microsoft’s other revenue segment, “Productivity and Business Processes,” reported revenue of $16.5 billion, up from $15.04 billion a year ago and higher than the average analyst estimate of $16.13 billion, according to FactSet. That segment includes Microsoft’s core cloud-software properties such as its Office suite of products — which is being officially renamed Microsoft 365 — as well as LinkedIn and some other properties.

    Microsoft stock has declined 25.5% so far this year, as the S&P 500 index
    SPX,
    +1.63%

    has dropped 20.3% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    +1.07%

    — which counts Microsoft as one of its 30 components — has declined 13.3%.

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  • Cash Is the Focus as Boeing Reports Its Earnings

    Cash Is the Focus as Boeing Reports Its Earnings

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    Boeing


    has reported positive free cash flow in only one quarter in more than three years. Whether the company generated more than it burned through in the three months through September, and how much it will produce in coming quarters, holds the key to the stock’s next move.

    Wednesday morning, B


    oeing


    (ticker: BA) is due to report third-quarter numbers. Wall Street is looking for earnings of about 10 cents a share from $17.8 billion in sales, a significant improvement from the second quarter, when


    Boeing


     reported an adjusted loss of 37 cents a share from sales of $16.7 billion.

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  • Microsoft stock slips as Azure growth slows and cloud sales miss projections

    Microsoft stock slips as Azure growth slows and cloud sales miss projections

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    Microsoft Corp. shares slipped in after-hours trading Tuesday despite an earnings beat, as the company’s cloud-computing revenue came in lower than expected and its core cloud product, Azure, grew at a slower rate than projections.

    Microsoft’s
    MSFT,
    +1.38%

    cloud-computing business has grown into the largest and most important business for the company, especially for investors who like Azure’s high margins and strong growth. There have been concerns about cloud growth as the U.S. faces its first possible recession since the technology became ubiquitous, and Azure’s growth in Tuesday’s report was the slowest Microsoft has reported in the past two years, while Microsoft’s cloud division was the only segment to come in lower than estimates.

    The “Intelligent Cloud” segment reported first-quarter revenue of $20.3 billion, up from $16.96 billion a year ago but slightly lower than the average analyst estimate tracked by FactSet of $20.46 billion. Microsoft said that Azure grew by 35%, while analysts on average were expecting 36.5% growth, according to FactSet.

    Opinion: The cloud boom is coming back to Earth, and that could be scary for tech stocks

    That is a marked slowdown from Azure’s 40% growth rate in the previous quarter, as well as the 50% growth shown in the same quarter last year. Microsoft only reports percentage growth for its core cloud-computing product, even as main rivals Amazon.com Inc.
    AMZN,
    +0.65%

    and Alphabet Inc.
    GOOGL,
    +1.91%

    GOOG,
    +1.90%

    report revenue and profit margin for their cloud-computing products.

    Overall, Microsoft
    MSFT,
    +1.38%

    reported fiscal first-quarter earnings of $17.56 billion, or $2.35 a share, down from $2.71 a share in the same quarter a year ago, when Microsoft disclosed a 44 cent-per-share tax benefit. Revenue increased to $50.1 billion from $45.32 billion a year ago. Analysts on average were expecting earnings of $2.31 a share on sales of $49.66 billion, according to FactSet.

    Microsoft shares fell between 1% and 2% in after-hours trading following the release of the results, after closing with a 1.4% increase at $250.66. Microsoft stock tends to react most strongly in after-hours trading following earnings reports after executives share their forecast for the current quarter in their conference call, which is scheduled to begin at 5:30 p.m. Eastern.

    Microsoft has started to show some effects of a weakening macroeconomic climate, confirming layoffs of fewer than 1,000 employees earlier this month. Microsoft has suffered from the strengthening dollar, as well as a sharp downturn in personal-computer sales, which spiked during the pandemic but are now showing record regression.

    For more: The pandemic PC boom is over, but its legacy will live on

    Microsoft reported PC revenue of $13.3 billion for the quarter, roughly flat from $13.31 billion a year before and beating the average analyst estimate of $13.12 billion, according to FactSet. While PCs have long been what consumers largely know Microsoft for, their importance to the company’s financials has declined in recent years as cloud computing has grown in importance.

    “Historically, Windows was a very large driver of Microsoft revenue and, given its strong margins, a disproportionate driver of earnings,” Bernstein analysts wrote in a preview of the report, while maintaining an “overweight” rating. “Over time other businesses, especially Microsoft’s commercial Cloud, have grown fast while the Windows business has grown quite slower, decreasing the relative impact of Windows.”

    Microsoft’s other revenue segment, “Productivity and Business Processes,” reported revenue of $16.5 billion, up from $15.04 billion a year ago and higher than the average analyst estimate of $16.13 billion, according to FactSet. That segment includes Microsoft’s core cloud-software properties such as its Office suite of products — which is being officially renamed Microsoft 365 — as well as LinkedIn and some other properties.

    Microsoft’s second-quarter guidance will be crucial to investors hoping that the tech giant can withstand any economic jolts headed its way and show stronger growth in cloud. Analysts on average were expecting overall second-quarter revenue of $56.16 billion and “Intelligent Cloud” sales of $21.82 billion heading into the print, according to FactSet, while some wrote that they would like to hear more from Microsoft executives about the picture for the full year.

    “Our hope is that management provides a bit more color on full-year fiscal 2023 beyond just the double-digit revenue growth and operating margins being roughly flat commentary from last quarter,” MoffetNathanson analysts, who have a “market perform” rating and $282 price target on the stock, wrote in their preview. “We would expect headcount-related revenue streams like Office to see increasing headwinds in coming quarters, but volume businesses like Azure, which is tied to data, being more resilient.”

    Microsoft stock has declined 25.5% so far this year, as the S&P 500 index
    SPX,
    +1.63%

    has dropped 20.3% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    +1.07%

    — which counts Microsoft as one of its 30 components — has declined 13.3%.

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  • Google ad sales take a hit and widely miss estimates, Alphabet stock drops 6%

    Google ad sales take a hit and widely miss estimates, Alphabet stock drops 6%

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    Alphabet Inc. is feeling the sting of a downturn in digital-ad spending. Google’s parent company reported just 6% sales growth year-over-year Tuesday and missed widely on its advertising revenue, pushing shares down in extended trading.

    Alphabet 
    GOOGL,
    +1.91%

     
    GOOG,
    +1.90%

     reported net income of $13.9 billion, or $1.06 a share, in its fiscal third quarter, compared with net income of $1.40 a share in the same quarter a year ago. Total revenue improved a middling 6% to $69.1 billion from $61.88 billion a year ago, the slowest year-over-year growth since sales declined in June 2020, while revenue after removing traffic-acquisition costs was $57.3 billion, compared with $53.6 billion in the year-ago period.

    Analysts surveyed by FactSet had estimated net income of $1.26 a share on ex-TAC revenue of $58.2 billion and overall revenue of $71 billion. Alphabet shares slipped more than 6% in after-hours trading immediately following the release of the results, after closing with a 2% increase at $104.48.

    The results, which missed in several key product categories, further rattled investors, already spooked by poor quarterly results last week from Snap Inc. 
    SNAP,
    +15.52%
    .
    Facebook parent company Meta Platforms Inc. 
    META,
    +6.01%

    is scheduled to report its third-quarter results Wednesday.

    Alphabet Chief Executive Sundar Pichai acknowledged the shortfall in ad revenue during a conference call with analysts. He vowed to take several measures, including a sharpened focus on products that improve search through artificial intelligence and to scale back hiring and other operating expenses.

    “There is no question we are operating in an uncertain environment,” Alphabet Chief Business Officer Philipp Schindler said on the call, noting reductions in ad spending by financial services that deepened during the third quarter.

    Google’s total advertising sales improved to $54.5 billion from $53.13 billion a year ago, but badly missed analysts’ average expectations for $56.58 billion. Search was $39.5 billion, compared with $37.93 billion last year. YouTube ad sales slipped to $7.07 billion from $7.21 billion a year ago.

    “When Google stumbles, it’s a bad omen for digital advertising at large,” Insider Intelligence analyst Evelyn Mitchell said. “Not only did Google miss analyst expectations for topline revenue, YouTube ad revenues shrank for the first time since Google started reporting YouTube earnings separately in Q4 2019, due in large part to persistent competition in streaming and short video.”

    Google’s Cloud revenue did climb to $6.9 billion from $4.99 billion; Google Cloud is believed to be third in cloud sales behind rivals Amazon.com Inc. 
    AMZN,
    +0.65%

    and Microsoft Corp. 
    MSFT,
    +1.38%
    .

    As is its customary practice, Alphabet did not disclose fourth-quarter guidance. But Alphabet Chief Financial Officer Ruth Porat cautioned during the analyst call that the company faces “tough comps” in the current fourth quarter. Last year, Alphabet raked in $75.3 billion in Q4 revenue.

    Google’s stock has skidded 28% so far this year. The broader S&P 500 index 
    SPX,
    +1.63%

    is down 19% in 2022.

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  • SAP reports cloud-driven higher revenue, confirms annual profit and sales outlook

    SAP reports cloud-driven higher revenue, confirms annual profit and sales outlook

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    SAP SE, the German business software company, confirmed its profit and sales outlook for the year after posting higher third-quarter revenue led by growth at its cloud business.

    Reporting on a non-IFRS basis, the Walldorf, Germany-based company
    SAP,
    +0.14%

    SAP,
    +4.18%

    said Tuesday that revenue jumped to 7.84 billion euros ($7.74 billion) from EUR6.85 billion, with cloud revenue up to EUR3.29 billion from EUR2.39 billion. Software-licenses revenue fell to EUR406 million from EUR657 million.

    Analysts polled by FactSet had forecast overall revenue of EUR7.65 billion, and cloud revenue of EUR3.19 billion.

    “We have delivered a strong cloud quarter with accelerating momentum across all key cloud indicators,” SAP Chief Financial Officer Luka Mucic said. The company said its cloud business performed strongly in all regions led by the U.S. and Germany, while activity in Brazil, China, India and Switzerland was particularly robust.

    SAP is moving away from software-licenses sales, once its biggest revenue streams, to subscription-based cloud services, banking on a more profitable and predictable model based on recurring revenue.

    “With a recurring revenue share of more than 80%, it’s clear that our transformation has reached an important inflection point, paving the way for continued growth in the future,” SAP Chief Executive Christian Klein said.

    Operating profit for the quarter slipped to EUR2.09 billion from EUR2.10 billion a year earlier, with SAP’s operating margin down to 26.7% from 30.7%. Analysts polled by FactSet had forecast operating profit of EUR2 billion.

    SAP, like other European software companies, presents its figures as two sets of numbers. One set is based on the International Financial Reporting Standards–an international accounting method that seeks to provide a global reporting standard–though analysts and investors tend to follow SAP’s non-IFRS numbers. Those figures exclude share-based compensation, restructuring expenses and acquisition-related charges.

    For the year, SAP continues to expect non-IFRS operating profit at constant currencies between EUR7.6 billion and EUR7.9 billion, and cloud revenue at constant currencies between EUR11.55 billion and EUR11.85 billion. However, free cash flow is now expected at roughly EUR4.5 billion against a previous forecast above EUR4.5 billion.

    Looking ahead, SAP is still targeting double-digit growth in operating profit for 2023, though the company said it expects to update midterm targets in the coming quarters, citing the strong cloud momentum and favorable currency movements.

    Write to Mauro Orru at mauro.orru@wsj.com; @MauroOrru94

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  • Stock market bulls have a new story to sell you. Don’t believe them — they’re just in the ‘bargaining’ stage of grief

    Stock market bulls have a new story to sell you. Don’t believe them — they’re just in the ‘bargaining’ stage of grief

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    Might the bear market’s losses at its recent low have gotten so bad that it was actually good news?

    Some eager stock bulls I monitor are advancing this convoluted rationale. The outline of their argument is that when things get bad enough, good times must be just around the corner.

    But their argument tells us more about market sentiment than its prospects.

    At the market’s recent closing low, the S&P 500
    SPX,
    +1.19%

    had dropped to 25% below its early-January high. According to one version of this “so-bad-it’s-good” argument, the stock market in the past was a good buy whenever bear markets fell to that threshold. Following those prior occasions, they contend, the market was almost always higher in a year’s time.

    This is not an argument you’d normally expect to see if the recent low represented the final low of the bear market. On the contrary, it fits squarely within the third of the five-stage progression of bear market grief, about which I have written before: denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance.

    With their argument, the bulls are trying to convince themselves that they can survive the bear market, rationalizing that the market will be higher in a year’s time. As Swiss-American psychiatrist Elisabeth Kübler-Ross put it when creating this five-stage scheme, the key feature of the bargaining stage is that it is a defense against feeling pain. It is far different than the depression and eventual acceptance that typically come later in a bear market.

    Though not all bear markets progress through these five stages, most do, as I’ve written before. Odds are that we have two more stages to go through. That suggests that the market’s rally over the past couple of weeks does not represent the beginning of a major new bull market.

    Numbers don’t add up

    Further support for this bearish assessment comes from the discovery that the bulls’ argument is not supported historically. Only in relatively recent decades was the market reliably higher in a year’s time following occasions in which a bear market had reached the 25% pain threshold. It’s not a good sign that the bulls are basing their optimism on such a flimsy foundation.

    Consider what I found upon analyzing the 21 bear markets since 1900 in the Ned Davis Research calendar in which the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    +1.34%

    fell at least 25%. I measured the market’s one-year return subsequent to the day on which each of these 21 bear markets first fell to that loss threshold. In seven of the 21 cases, or 33%, the market was lower in a year’s time.

    That’s the identical percentage that applies to all days in the stock market over the past century, regardless of whether those days came during bull or bear markets. So, based on the magnitude of the bear market’s losses to date, there’s no reason to believe that the market’s odds of rising are any higher now than at any other time.

    This doesn’t mean that there aren’t good arguments for why the market might rise. But the 25%-loss concept isn’t one of them.

    Mark Hulbert is a regular contributor to MarketWatch. His Hulbert Ratings tracks investment newsletters that pay a flat fee to be audited. He can be reached at mark@hulbertratings.com.

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  • Schlumberger Rebrands as SLB, Dropping Family Name

    Schlumberger Rebrands as SLB, Dropping Family Name

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    Oil-field services giant says new name marks commitment to cleaner energy

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  • France to Pay Part of Companies’ Electricity Bills

    France to Pay Part of Companies’ Electricity Bills

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    By Joshua Kirby

    The French government will cover a part of companies’ electricity bills, with big energy firms asked to contribute to the cost, a minister told TV station BFM Business late Sunday.

    An “electricity guarantee” for 2023 will be finalized soon, and will cover part of any amount paid above a reference price fixed by the government, according to Energy Transition Minister Agnes Pannier-Runacher.

    Energy companies making large profits will be asked to provide a contribution in relation to the reference price, the minister said, adding that the relevant legal proposition will be made very soon.

    The move comes amid surging energy prices across Europe following a stoppage of natural-gas flows from Russia. In France, supply has also been threatened by strikes at nuclear reactors owned by national utility Electricite de France SA.

    Write to Joshua Kirby at joshua.kirby@wsj.com; @joshualeokirby

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  • Mortgage industry group predicts recession next year, expects mortgage rates to come back down from 7%

    Mortgage industry group predicts recession next year, expects mortgage rates to come back down from 7%

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    NASHVILLE, Tenn. — A mortgage industry group is expecting a recession to hit the U.S. economy.

    “We’re forecasting a recession for next year,” Mike Fratantoni, senior vice president and chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association, said Sunday during the industry group’s annual conference in Nashville, Tenn. 

    “The upside of that potentially for the industry is, that’s the thing that’s likely going to bring rates down a little bit,” he added.

    Also see: Mortgage bankers forecast rates to drop to 5.4% in 2023. Here’s what that means for home prices.

    In a statement, Fratantoni said the MBA’s forecast calls for a recession in the first half of 2023, and predicts the unemployment rate will rise from 3.5% to 5.5% by the end of next year.

    “We’re beginning to see some significant signs of softening in the labor market,” Frantantoni said. 

    He expects companies to no longer be scrambling to fill job openings, and that hiring will eventually cool off.

    On average in 2023, expect the economy to lose 25,000 jobs per month, he said, and end the year with employment at 5.5%. 

    That’s in stark contrast to the latest unemployment rate in September, which was 3.5%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

    “So a very, very different job market to today,” Frantantoni said. “I do expect the next couple of months are gonna be a pretty abrupt transition.”

    With a recession on the horizon, expect mortgage rates to come down to close to 5.4% at the end of next year, he said, versus the 7%-plus rates that the market is seeing today. 

    “We are holding to our view that this is a spike right now, driven by financial-market dislocation, heightened level of volatility in the market and this global slowdown we’re about to experience, the likelihood of recession in the U.S. will begin to pull this number,” Fratantoni said.

    Mike Fratantoni, senior vice president and chief economist for the MBA, speaks in Nashville on Sunday.


    AARTHI SWAMINATHAN

    Given the massive rise in rates this year, with the 30-year fixed rate averaging 6.94% last week as compared to 3.85% a year ago, many potential home buyers have decided to wait as their projected monthly mortgage payments have become unaffordable.

    Home sales have plunged, and are dragging down home prices. Sellers are also making more concessions in their attempts to woo buyers.

    As a result of the slowdown, the MBA is expecting total mortgage origination volume to fall to $2.05 trillion in 2023 from the $2.26 trillion expected in 2022. 

    They’re also expecting purchase originations to drop 3%, and refinances by 24%.

    Fratantoni also expects delinquencies to rise from 40-year lows.

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  • IRS releases new federal tax brackets and standard deductions. Here’s how they affect your family’s tax bill.

    IRS releases new federal tax brackets and standard deductions. Here’s how they affect your family’s tax bill.

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    America’s high inflation rate will produce a 7% increase in the size of the standard deduction when workers file their taxes on their 2023 income, according to new inflation adjustments from the Internal Revenue Service.

    It’s also going to pump up tax brackets by 7% as well, according to the annual inflation adjustments the IRS announced this week.

    Many tax code provisions — but not all — are indexed for inflation, so the announcements are a recurring event. But when inflation is persistently clinging to four-decade highs, these annual adjustments carry extra significance.

    When inflation is persistently clinging to four-decade highs, these annual adjustments of approximately 7% for the standard deduction carry extra significance.

    Start with the standard deduction, which is what most people use instead of itemizing deductions.

    The standard deduction for individuals and married people filing separately will be $13,850 for the 2023 tax year. That’s a $900 increase from the $12,950 standard deduction for the upcoming tax season.

    For married couples filing jointly, the payout climbs to $27,700 for the 2023 tax year. That’s a $1,800 increase from the $25,900 standard deduction set for the upcoming tax year.

    The increases in the marginal tax rates reflect the same 7% rise. For example, the 22% tax bracket for this year is over $41,775 for single filers and over $83,550 for married couples filing jointly. Next year, the same 22% bracket applies to incomes over $44,725 and over $89,450 for married couples filing jointly.

    MarketWatch/IRS

    “The changes seem to be much larger than previous years because inflation is running much higher than it has in previous decades,” said Alex Durante, economist at the Tax Foundation, a right-leaning tax think tank.

    The IRS arrives at its inflation adjustments by averaging a slightly different inflation gauge, the so-called “chained Consumer Price Index” instead of the widely-watched Consumer Price Index, Durante noted. That’s an outcome of the Trump-era Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, he added.

    “The reason they do this is because the regular CPI is thought to overstate inflation because it doesn’t take into account the substitution that shoppers can make as cost rise,” Durante said. Shoppers substitute when they swap a more expensive item for cheaper one, and research shows many Americans are using the tactic.

    The IRS inflation adjustments come after September CPI data last week showed inflation of 8.2% year-over-year, slightly off from 8.3% in August. Also last week, the Social Security Administration said next year’s payments would include an 8.7% cost of living adjustment.

    The payout on the earned income tax credit — geared at low- and moderate-income working families who have been hit hard by red-hot inflation — is also increasing.

    The payout on the earned income tax credit is also increasing. The maximum payout for a qualifying taxpayer with at least three qualifying children climbs to $7,430, up from $6,935 for this tax year. The longstanding credit is geared at low- and moderate-income working families who have been hit hard by red-hot inflation.

    More than 60 provisions are slated for an increase inline with inflation, but many portions of the tax code are not indexed for inflation. Depending on the circumstances, the taxes or the tax breaks kick in sooner.

    Capital gains tax rules one example. The IRS lets a taxpayer use capital losses to offset capital gains taxes. If losses exceed gains, the IRS allows a taxpayer to deduct up to $3,000 in excess loses. They can then carry the remainder of the capital loses to future tax years. It’s been more than four decades since lawmakers last set the limit, according to Durante.

    While more than 60 provisions are slated for an increase inline with inflation, many portions of the tax code are not indexed for inflation. They include capital gains tax.

    Given the stock market’s rocky downward slide this year, many investors might welcome a fast-approaching tax break — even if it only enables a $3,000 deduction.

    At the same time, a married couple selling their home can exclude the first $500,000 of the sale from capital gains taxation, and it’s $250,000 for a single filer. It’s been that way since the exclusion’s 1997 establishment.

    The once white-hot housing market may be cooling, but many sellers may still be facing the point when taxes kick in. The median home listing was over $367,000 as of early October, according to Redfin
    RDFN,
    +2.29%
    .

    The child tax credit is another example. After the payout to parents last year jumped to $3,600 for children under age 6 and $3,000 per child age 6 to 17, it’s back to a maximum $2,000. The credit’s refundable portion climbs from $1,500 to $1,600 during tax year 2023, the IRS notes.

    Proponents of the boosted payouts and some Congressional Democrats want to revive the larger payments in negotiations tied to corporate taxes. The high costs of living are a strong reason to bring back the boosted credit, they say.

    Related:

    What smart strategies can lower your tax bill as year-end approaches? Read this before making any tax moves.

    Three things the best 401(k)s offer that can help you save a lot more

    Enhanced child tax credit helped reduce poverty for families before it ended last year. But there’s one way Republicans and Democrats could agree on reinstating it.

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  • Tesla Stock Could Rebound in 3 Months. Here’s What it Would Take.

    Tesla Stock Could Rebound in 3 Months. Here’s What it Would Take.

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    Elon Musk says that


    Tesla


    could someday be worth more than


    Apple


    and Saudi Aramco, combined. First, it needs to get through the next few months.

    Before Tesla (ticker: TSLA) reported third-quarter earnings this past week, investors had been hoping they would allay concerns that had been growing since the company released second-quarter numbers three months earlier. They did no such thing. While earnings topped expectations, third-quarter deliveries, sales, and profit margins all fell short of Street projections. Tesla shares slumped 6.7% following the release, putting them down 22% since the end of September, their second-worst start to a quarter since the first few weeks of 2016.

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  • IRS to Make Largest Increase Ever to 401(k) Contribution Limit

    IRS to Make Largest Increase Ever to 401(k) Contribution Limit

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    IRS to Make Largest Increase Ever to 401(k) Contribution Limit

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  • IRS sets new 401(k) limits — investors can save a lot more money in 2023

    IRS sets new 401(k) limits — investors can save a lot more money in 2023

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    People can contribute up to $22,500 in 401(k) accounts and $6,500 in IRAs in 2023, the IRS said Friday.

    For 401(k)s, that’s an almost 10% increase from 2022’s contribution limit of $20,500. For IRAs, it’s a more than 8% rise from 2022’s limit of $6,000.

    As added context, the inflation-indexed bumps tax year 2023 income tax brackets and the standard deduction worked to approximately 7%.

    When the IRS increased the 401(k) contribution limits last year, it came to a roughly 5% rise.

    “Given the inflation we have been experiencing recently, the early announcement of this increase is encouraging,” Rita Assaf, vice president of retirement products at Fidelity Investments, said after the IRS released the 2023 contribution limits.

    Seven in 10 people are “very concerned” how inflating costs will impact their readiness for retirement according to a Fidelity study, Assaf noted. “Every dollar counts, and this increase will provide Americans with the opportunity to set aside just a bit more to help fund their retirement objectives,” she said.

    Older workers can save even more

    The 2023 contribution limits that apply to 401(k)s — plus 403(b) plans, most 457 plans and the federal government’s Thrift Savings Plan — are even larger for workers age 50 and over.

    Catch-up contribution limits rise to $7,500 from $6,500, the IRS said. Combine the catch-up contributions with the regular contribution limits, and workers age 50 and over can sock away $30,000 for retirement in these accounts during 2023, the agency said.

    Income phase-outs increase when it comes to possible deductions, credits and contributions

    Tax rules can let people deduct contributions to traditional IRAs so long as they meet certain conditions, pegged to issues like coverage through a workplace retirement plan and yearly income. Above phase-out ranges, deductions don’t apply if a person or their spouse has a retirement plan through work, the IRS noted.

    For 2023, a single taxpayer covered by a workplace retirement plan has a phase-out range between $73,000 and $83,000. That’s up from a range between $68,000 and $78,000 during 2022.

    For a married couple filing jointly “if the spouse making the IRA contribution is covered by a workplace retirement plan, the phase-out range is increased to between $116,000 and $136,000,” the IRS said.

    If an IRA saver doesn’t have a workplace plan but their spouse is covered, “the phase-out range is increased to between $218,000 and $228,000,” the agency noted.

    There are also changes coming for the Roth IRA, which people fund with after-tax money and then can tap tax-free later.

    Read also: Here’s when you should choose a Roth IRA over a traditional account

    The Roth IRA contribution limits also climb to $6,500. Retirement savers putting money in their 401(k) can’t also put pre-tax money in a traditional IRA, but they can contribute to a Roth account.

    Still, the eligibility to contribute to Roth IRA accounts is pegged to income, subject to phase-out ranges.

    In 2023, the income phase-out range on Roth IRA contributions climbs to between $138,000 – $153,000 for individuals and people filing as head of household. (That’s up from a range between $129,000 and $144,000, the IRS noted.)

    With a married couple filing jointly, next year’s phase-out range goes to $218,00 – $228,000. That’s a step up from this year’s $204,000 – $214,000 range.

    The income limit surrounding the saver’s credit, which is geared toward low- and moderate-income households, is also getting a lift. The credit lets taxpayers claim 10%, 20% or one-half of contributions to eligible retirement plans, including a 401(k) or an IRA. The credit’s income limits are climbing, the IRS said.

    The 2023 income limit will be $73,000 for married couples filing jointly, $54,750 for heads of household and $36,500 for individuals and married individuals filing separately, according to the IRS.

    Don’t miss: Opinion: It’s harder for me to look at my 529 balance than my 401(k) because I have a high school junior. Here’s some advice for parents on a similar timeline.

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  • CDC shoots down false claims it will mandate COVID-19 vaccines for schoolchildren, saying states make that decision

    CDC shoots down false claims it will mandate COVID-19 vaccines for schoolchildren, saying states make that decision

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    The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has refuted claims that it’s planning to add the COVID-19 vaccine to immunization schedules for schoolchildren, saying that the authority for that decision lies with states and other local entities.

    The false claim spread after it was shared by Fox News host Tucker Carlson in a tweet this week, as the Associated Press reported. 

    Carlson tweeted that the agency would make the vaccine mandatory in order for children to attend school, a claim the CDC quickly shot down. While an advisory committee to the CDC voted to recommend that the vaccine be added to immunization schedules, the CDC “only makes recommendations for use of vaccines, while school-entry vaccination requirements are determined by state or local jurisdictions,” CDC spokeswoman Kate Grusich told the AP.

    Grusich explained that the action was meant to streamline clinical guidance for healthcare providers by adding COVID-19 vaccines to a single list of all currently licensed, authorized and routinely recommended vaccines.

    “It’s important to note that there are no changes in COVID-19 vaccine policy,” she said.

    The news comes as U.S. known cases of COVID are continuing to ease and now stand at their lowest level since mid-April, although the true tally is likely higher given how many people overall are testing at home, where data are not being collected.

    The daily average for new cases stood at 38,077 on Thursday, according to a New York Times tracker, down 8% from two weeks ago. Cases are currently rising in 14 states, as well as Washington, D.C., and Puerto Rico.

    The daily average for hospitalizations was down 2% to 26,669, although hospitalizations are rising in almost all northeastern states as cold weather arrives. The daily average for deaths was down 7% to 360.

    Coronavirus Update: MarketWatch’s daily roundup has been curating and reporting all the latest developments every weekday since the coronavirus pandemic began

    Other COVID-19 news you should know about:

    • Pfizer
    PFE,
    +4.42%

    is planning to sell the COVID vaccine it developed with German partner BioNTech
    BNTX,
    +9.88%

    for $110 -$130 a dose once the U.S. market for COVID-19 shots becomes commercial, likely in the first quarter of next year, MarketWatch’s Jaimy Lee reported. Pfizer and BioNTech are currently paid $30.50 per vaccine dose by the U.S. government, which contracted with the companies, as well as with other vaccine makers like Moderna
    MRNA,
    +9.07%

    and Novavax
    NVAX,
    +11.35%
    ,
    and then made the COVID-19 shots available at no cost to people in the U.S. during the public-health emergency. The emergency declaration in the U.S. isn’t expected to be renewed next year, which will lead to the formation of an official commercial market for COVID-19 vaccines, tests and treatments. 

    • Johnson & Johnson
    JNJ,
    +1.91%

    said the volume of surgical procedures is returning to prepandemic levels in many parts of the world, a trend that cheered Wall Street and could bode well for other medical-technology heavyweights like Stryker Corp.
    SYK,
    +0.57%

    and Zimmer Biomet Holdings
    ZBH,
    +0.18%
    .
    J&J, which reported earnings this week, said its medical-technology business had a “strong September,” with U.S. sales of hip and knee implants and other surgical devices rising 7.7% to $3.3 billion in the third quarter of the year. “We are seeing procedures recovering,” Ashley McEvoy, worldwide chair of J&J’s MedTech business, told investors during this week’s earnings call. “In the U.S., we started to see surgical procedures tick up, predominantly at the latter part of the quarter.”

    The new bivalent vaccine might be the first step in developing annual COVID shots, which could follow a similar process to the one used to update flu vaccines every year. Here’s what that process looks like, and why applying it to COVID could be challenging. Illustration: Ryan Trefes

    • “As China’s ruling Communist Party holds a congress this week, many Beijing residents are focused on an issue not on the formal agenda: Will the end of the meeting bring an easing of China’s at times draconian ‘zero-COVID’ policies that are disrupting lives and the economy?” the AP reported. It appears to be wishful thinking. As the world moves to a postpandemic lifestyle, many across China have resigned themselves to lining up several times a week for COVID tests, restrictions on travel to other regions and the ever-present possibility of a community lockdown.

    • Fantasy Fest, a 10-day annual party, is kicking off in Key West, Fla., on Friday, with a full slate of events for the first time since the pandemic started, the AP reported. “Due to the COVID pandemic, this will be the first full Fantasy Fest since 2019,” the festival’s board chair, Steve Robbins, said. “So I know our guests and staff are excited about getting back to the real Fantasy Fest.” Dozens of themed events are set for the festival, including a nighttime parade Oct. 29 featuring floats and elaborately costumed marching groups. Participants are encouraged to draw costume ideas from the festival’s theme, “Cult Classics & Cartoon Chaos,” and to portray characters inspired by favorite cartoons and television or film productions with a cult following.

    Here’s what the numbers say:

    The global tally of confirmed cases of COVID-19 topped 626.9 million on Friday, while the death toll rose above 6.57 million, according to data aggregated by Johns Hopkins University.

    The U.S. leads the world with 97.2 million cases and 1,067,190 fatalities.

    The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s tracker shows that 226.5 million people living in the U.S., equal to 68.2% of the total population, are fully vaccinated, meaning they have had their primary shots. Just 111.4 million have had a booster, equal to 49.1% of the vaccinated population, and 26.8 million of those who are eligible for a second booster have had one, equal to 40.6% of those who received a first booster.

    The CDC reports that some 19.4 million people have had a dose of the updated bivalent booster that targets omicron and its subvariants along with the original virus.

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  • Pfizer sets new prices for its COVID-19 vaccines. The cost? $110 to $130 per dose

    Pfizer sets new prices for its COVID-19 vaccines. The cost? $110 to $130 per dose

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    Pfizer Inc.
    PFE,
    +4.17%

    said Thursday that it plans to sell the COVID-19 shot it developed with BioNTech SE
    BNTX,
    +7.14%

    for $110 to $130 per dose once the U.S. market for COVID-19 shots becomes commercial, likely in the first quarter of next year.

    Pfizer and BioNTech are currently paid $30.50 per vaccine dose by the U.S. government, which contracted with the companies (as well as other vaccine makers like Moderna Inc.
    MRNA,
    +6.57%

    and Novavax Inc.
    NVAX,
    +8.88%

    ) and then made the COVID-19 shots available at no cost to people in the U.S. during the public-health emergency.

    The emergency declaration in the U.S. isn’t expected to be renewed next year, which will lead to the formation of an official commercial market for COVID-19 vaccines, tests and treatments. That said, this change doesn’t mean most Americans will be on the hook to pay for their shots in 2023 and beyond.

    A recent Kaiser Family Foundation analysis said most people with private insurance won’t be expected to pay anything out of pocket for the vaccines, though the costs may eventually be baked into the price of health-insurance premiums, as is done with flu shots. People with Medicare will have their shots covered by Medicare Part B, while those with Medicaid should also have coverage of COVID-19 vaccines. It’s the uninsured who may find it difficult to find free vaccines and boosters in the future.

    Wall Street analysts cheered the news, saying Pfizer’s pricing plan came in above expectations. It also bodes well for Moderna’s stock. SVB Securities upgraded the company to market perform from underperform, though the company has not yet announced its pricing plans for its COVID-19 shots.

    “Presuming that MRNA prices as a rational duopolist, this substantially improves the company’s ability to meet 2023 revenue guidance,” SVB analyst Mani Foroohar told investors.

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  • Twitter shares slump after report that the U.S. mulls national-security reviews for some of Elon Musk’s ventures

    Twitter shares slump after report that the U.S. mulls national-security reviews for some of Elon Musk’s ventures

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    Shares of Twitter plunged in premarket trade on Friday after a report Biden administration officials are considering subjecting some of Elon Musk’s ventures to national-security reviews.

    Twitter
    TWTR,
    +1.18%

    shares plunged 9% to $47.64 in premarket trade, below the $54.20 per share buyout price.

    Bloomberg News reported late Thursday that some U.S. officials have become concerned in recent weeks by Musk’s Russia-friendly tweets and his threat to cut off Starlink satellite internet service to Ukraine. The Tesla
    TSLA,
    -6.65%

    and SpaceX CEO’s pending $44 billion acquisition of Twitter has also reportedly drawn concerns because of its foreign investors, including a Saudi prince, Binance Holdings — a crypto exchange that was initially based in China — and Qatar’s sovereign wealth fund.

    Citing anonymous sources familiar with the matter, Bloomberg said discussions are still in the early stages and officials are trying to figure out what regulatory tools are available to them. One option could be a national-security review by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, the report said.

    Separately, Bloomberg also reported late Thursday that Musk’s lawyers and bankers are preparing paperwork for the Twitter deal to be completed ahead of a Oct. 28 deadline, and that relations between Musk and Twitter have turned cordial rather than adversarial.

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  • Instacart reportedly puts off its long-anticipated IPO

    Instacart reportedly puts off its long-anticipated IPO

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    Grocery-delivery company Instacart Inc. is delaying its long-awaited initial public offering because of poor market conditions, according to news reports Thursday.

    The New York Times first reported Thursday that the San Francisco-based company has halted its IPO plans, and is awaiting more favorable conditions. Later Thursday night, the Wall Street Journal confirmed the report, citing a memo from Instagram CEO Fidji Simo saying an IPO will be “highly unlikely” this year.

    The IPO market has been severely curtailed this year following a record-setting 2021, as the stock market has slid amid high inflation and recession fears. As of September, the number of U.S. IPOs was down 79% year over year, with total proceeds down 95%, according to Renaissance data.

    According to the Times, Instacart had intended to start the IPO process this week by releasing some financial information, but decided not to, for now, due to market volatility.

    The Journal reported that the IPO had received positive feedback from potential investors, but executives came away with the message that the market will not support a tech IPO at this time.

    “Our business has never been stronger,” Instacart said in a statement Thursday. “In Q3, our revenue grew more than 40% year-over-year, and our net income and adjusted EBITDA more than doubled from Q2. We remain focused on building for the long term, and we are excited about the opportunity ahead.” 

    Instacart confidentially filed for its IPO in May. The company has been one of the more anticipated potential IPOs for years. In July, Instacart cut its estimated valuation for the second time in four months, to $15 billion, nearly 40% less than its previous valuation of $24 billion.

    Last month, the Wall Street Journal reported Instacart didn’t plan on raising much capital in its IPO, instead having most of its listing come from the sale of employees’ shares — a move that could greatly benefit current employees.

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  • Snap investors, do you still trust Evan Spiegel?

    Snap investors, do you still trust Evan Spiegel?

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    When Snap Inc. went public in 2017, this column boiled down the entire investment opportunity to one, simple question: Do you trust Evan Spiegel?

    As Snap
    SNAP,
    -0.64%

    stock heads toward its lowest prices since March 2020, and potentially even lower, that question is even more important, and answering “yes” should be even harder.

    Three months ago, amid the beginning of a huge slowdown in the ad business, Snap initiated a unique dividend meant to ensure that the founders maintained control of the company, even if they sold their stock — protecting themselves. Then in August, news came that Snap was laying off one in five employees. As Snap again reported disappointing results Thursday and saw the stock plunge again, the company decided now was the time to initiate a stock buyback plan, promising to spend up to $500 million to offset the dilution from employee stock plans — in the past nine months, Snap has spent $937 million on stock-based compensation.

    On the face of it, this seems like an investor-friendly approach — Barron’s pointed out earlier this year that investors were suffering while employees were faring better with the hefty stock-comp plans. But it’s also worth pointing out who the biggest investors in Snap are: Spiegel and his co-founder Bobby Murphy.

    As the company’s largest individual shareholders, Spiegel and Murphy are among the key beneficiaries of Snap’s plans to buy back stock, which usually leads to a boost in the stock price. Those two still control over 99% of the voting power of the company’s capital stock, and as the parent of Snapchat reminded investors in its annual report, “Mr. Spiegel alone can exercise voting control over a majority of our outstanding capital stock.”

    Shares of Snap tumbled an additional 25% to just under $8 in after-hours trading, putting them near the lowest prices since March 2020. On Thursday, the company ended regular trading hours with a market capitalization of around $17.91 billion, but that was headed toward $13 billion with the after-hours collapse.

    Besides protecting themselves and their investment, Snap’s executives have shown little ability to head off big issues, nor offer any worthwhile solutions to the current ad downturn. In the third quarter, its revenue grew a paltry 6%, down from the most recent second-quarter revenue growth of 13%. Snap appears to be in a steady revenue slowdown, from its peak growth of 116% in the June 2021 quarter.

    Snap has blamed both privacy changes that Apple Inc.
    AAPL,
    -0.33%

    made to the iPhone that affected ad tracking, and more recently, the macroeconomic advertising climate, while avoiding one of the biggest factors — the rise of TikTok. Top executives didn’t seem to see any of those challenges coming early enough, and did not do enough about them once they did.

    “The company was slow to react — or acknowledge — the significant headwinds faced by privacy initiatives, compounded by competition, and more recently macro headwinds,” Colin Sebastian, an analyst at Baird Equity Research, wrote in a note.

    The competition factor, mostly from China’s TikTok, was addressed briefly on the company’s call with analysts, but was not really acknowledged by Snap leaders.

    “We believe that the differentiated nature of our service is what’s contributing to the daily active-user growth, which grew 19% year-over-year to 363 million daily active users,” Spiegel said. “In terms of the content specifically, I think there’s a lot of headroom, of course, to continue to grow content engagement.”

    In the company’s shareholder letter, Spiegel acknowledged that the results were “far from our aspirations,” and that Snap would use this time of reduced demand “to pull forward and accelerate changes to our advertising platform and auction dynamics that we believe will deliver better results for our advertising partner.”

    Spiegel is known for going by his own instincts and not listening to other executives, employees or even market forces, as was noted in a Wall Street Journal report that detailed his push for an unsuccessful product redesign in 2018. While the company appeared to have snapped back from that debacle last year, it is now facing a fiercer rival for young people on social media in the form of TikTok.

    Investors who still have patience to wait and see if this stock ever recovers will also have to stick around with Spiegel — and as our IPO column noted — Snap is unapologetically founder-controlled. No change at the top can ever come unless it is initiated by Spiegel himself. Investors have to make a leap of faith that Spiegel can turn things around, but they need to remember that Spiegel usually thinks about himself first.

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