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  • BioVie Shares jump Premarket on Parkinson’s, Alzheimer’s Studies >BIVI

    BioVie Shares jump Premarket on Parkinson’s, Alzheimer’s Studies >BIVI

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    By Colin Kellaher

    Shares of BioVie Inc. rose sharply in premarket trading Tuesday after the clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company reported positive results from a pair of Phase 2 studies assessing the potential of its NE3107 drug candidate in Parkinson’s disease and Alzheimer’s disease.

    The Carson City, Nev., company said the study of NE3107 in Parkinson’s met both main objectives, with patients treated with a combination of the drug and levodopa seeing meaningful improvements in their motor score and an absence of adverse interactions of NE3107 with levodopa.

    BioVie said that based on the study findings, it will proceed with planning the Phase 3 program for discussion with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.

    Meanwhile, BioVie said patients treated with NE3107 in the Alzheimer’s study experienced improved cognition and biomarker levels, with no drug-related adverse events observed.

    BioVie shares, which closed Monday at $5.21, were recently up 15% to $5.98 in premarket trading.

    Write to Colin Kellaher at colin.kellaher@wsj.com

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  • ‘Gaslighters have two signature moves’: Are you being gaslighted at work? Here’s how to recognize the signs.

    ‘Gaslighters have two signature moves’: Are you being gaslighted at work? Here’s how to recognize the signs.

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    Are you less happy at work since you befriended that new recruit? Have they told you stories about how colleagues have constantly undermined them? Or do you have a boss who excludes you from key meetings — and then asks why you did not attend a meeting even though you are pretty sure you were not invited to begin with? If so, you may be working with a gaslighter.

    Gaslighters, as the name suggests, cast themselves in a positive light — friend or confidante who is here to help — but actually operate much more effectively in the shadows. Merriam-Webster named “gaslighting” the word of the year. Searches for the word on merriam-webster.com surged 1,740% in 2022 over the prior year year, despite there not being an event that the publisher — known for its dictionaries — could point to as a cause of the spike.

    It defines gaslighting as “psychological manipulation of a person usually over an extended period of time that causes the victim to question the validity of their own thoughts, perception of reality, or memories and typically leads to confusion, loss of confidence and self-esteem, uncertainty of one’s emotional or mental stability, and a dependency on the perpetrator.”

    Perhaps the reasons were more personal — or professional — than political. My social media feed is now full of thought pieces on how to spot one of these saboteurs. The comments sections read like the show notes of a True Crime podcast — gruesome yet hard to turn away from. 

    The term was coined in a 1938 play, “Gas Light,” a psychological thriller set in Victorian London and written by Patrick Hamilton.

    The term was further popularized after George Cukor’s 1944 film, “Gaslight,” based on the play, in which Gregory (Charles Boyer) tries to convince his wife Paula (Ingrid Bergman) that she has lost her reason. While he turns on the lights in the attic while searching for hidden jewels, the gaslight flickers in the rest of the house. He tells Paula that she is merely imagining the dimming of the lights.

    The workplace is fertile ground for such behavior, given what’s at stake: money, power, status, promotion, rivalry and the intrigue that often comes with office politics. 

    I’m in the business of helping people work out their conflicts at work. None of this surprises me. In fact, I dedicated a whole chapter in my book, “Jerks at Work,” to gaslighters. 

    ‘For gaslighters, slow and steady wins the race, and the best ones make friends with their victims first.’

    What has surprised me is how wide-ranging the definition of “gaslighting” has become. Everything from “not respecting personal boundaries” to “talking so much shit about me I couldn’t get hired for two years” seems to fall under the umbrella. 

    What I’ve learned from my doom scrolling is that the word “gaslighter” — probably the worst name to bestow on a colleague or boss — seems to refer to anyone who’s done a whole bunch of bad things to us at work, especially things that involve humiliation. 

    So what really is a gaslighter, and why is it important to distinguish one from, say, a demeaning boss with a chip on their shoulder and a penchant for public shaming?

    If we stick to the clinical definition, gaslighters have two signature moves: They lie with the intent of creating a false reality, and they cut off their victims socially. 

    They position themselves as both savior and underminer, creating a negative and fearful atmosphere, spreading gossip and taking credit for other people’s work. They are often jealous and resentful, and aim to undercut others in order to further their own position.

    You may also be an unwitting pawn in the gaslighting of another colleague. The gaslighter might try to convince you that Johnny is trying to steal your leadership role on a project, and encourage you to freeze him out in the cafeteria at lunch time, or simply be extra wary about sharing important information.

    For gaslighters, slow and steady wins the race, and the best ones make friends with their victims first. For this reason, it could also be considered a form of workplace harassment.

    They often flatter them, make them feel special. Others create a fear of speaking up in their victims by making their position at work seem more precarious than it is. And the lies are complex, coming at you in layers. It takes a long time to realize your status as a victim of gaslighting, and social isolation is a necessary part of this process. 

    ‘It takes a long time to realize your status as a victim of gaslighting, and social isolation is a necessary part of this process.’

    But there’s a difference between an annoying coworker or micromanaging boss, and a gaslighter, who lies and conspires to undermine your position. “The gaslighter doesn’t want you to improve or succeed — they’re out to sabotage you,” according to the careers website Monster.com. “They will accuse you of being confused or mistaken, or that you took something they said the wrong way because you are insecure. They might even manipulate paper trails to “prove” they are right.”

    Examples cited by Monster.com: “You know you turned in a project, but the gaslighter insists you never gave it to them. You can tell someone has been in your space, moving things around, or even on your computer, but you don’t have proof. You are the only one not included in a team email or meeting invite, or intentionally kept out of the loop. Then when you don’t respond or show up, you are reprimanded.”

    Knowing this, what can you do to prevent yourself from becoming a target? First, recognize that gaslighters don’t wear their strategy on their sleeve. Flattery, making you feel like you’re a part of a special club, or questioning your expertise are not things that raise gaslighting alarm bells. 

    Rather than looking out for mean behavior by a boss or coworker, look out for signs of social isolation. A boss who wants to cut you off from coworkers and other leaders should raise red flags, even if the reason is that “you’re better than them.” 

    Second, recognize that lie detection is a precarious — and from a scientific perspective, almost impossible — business. Don’t try to become a lie detector, instead take notes, so you can put your “gaslighter” on notice that you are wise to their tactics. You can also use the notes as evidence if you decide to later raise the situation with Human Resources. 

    Here are some ways to beat the gaslighter: Send emails with “a summary of today’s meeting” so you can document the origin of ideas and make sure they don’t steal credit from you. Furthermore, document things that happened in person, and share it with your would-be gaslighter. And speak up at meetings. Don’t allow yourself to be browbeaten into submission. 

    The more you document, the more difficult it will be to be victimized. But a word of warning: Don’t try to confront gaslighters — instead, go to your social network to build your reality back up. Trying to beat these folks at their own game is a losing strategy. But these small things, done early in a working relationship, can work wonders. 

    Tessa West is a New York University social psychology professor with a particular interest in workplace behavior, and author of “Jerks at Work: Toxic Coworkers and What to Do About Them.

    Related stories:

    ‘We’re like rats in a cage’: Sick and tired of their jobs, American workers strive to regain their agency, their time — and their sanity

    People are seeking a genuine connection with their colleagues’ — one that goes beyond ‘Hollywood Squares’ Zoom meetings. Not all workers are happy with remote work.

    The backlash to quiet quitting smacks of another attempt by the ruling class to get workers back under their thumbs:’ Am I wrong?

    We want to hear from readers who have stories to share about the effects of increasing costs and a changing economy. If you’d like to share your experience, write to readerstories@marketwatch.com. Please include your name and the best way to reach you. A reporter may be in touch.

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  • This little-known but spot-on economic indicator says recession and lower stock prices are all but certain

    This little-known but spot-on economic indicator says recession and lower stock prices are all but certain

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    An obscure and arcane economic indicator suggests that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell was wrong when he said at his Nov. 30 news conference that “There is a path to a soft, a softish landing” for the U.S. economy.

    This indicator traces to the large divergence between consumers’ views about the economy in general and their immediate personal financial circumstances in particular. A recession has occurred each time over the past four decades in which this divergence even approached its current level.

    To measure this divergence, this indicator focuses on the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Survey (UMI). While there is some overlap between what these two indices measure, there is a significant difference in emphasis, according to James Stack of InvesTech Research, from whom I first heard about this indicator. The CCI more heavily reflects consumers’ attitudes towards the overall economy, according to Stack, while the UMI is more heavily weighted towards their immediate personal circumstances.

    Perhaps not surprisingly, the CCI currently is higher than the UMI. Even as American consumers’ attitudes towards their immediate financial situations continue to sour, due to everything from inflation to higher mortgage rates to a softening housing market, the overall economy has proven to be remarkably resilient. Yet more evidence of this resilience was the Dec. 2 jobs report, in which the Labor Department reported the creation of a much-higher-than-expected number of new jobs.

    What is more surprising is the magnitude of the current divergence. According to the latest data releases from the Conference Board and the University of Michigan in late November, the CCI is 43.4 percentage points higher than the UMI. That’s close to a record; the latest reading stands at the 98th percentile of all monthly readings of the past four decades.

    Furthermore, as you can see from the chart above, a recession was in the economy’s not-too-distant future (shadowed bars) the past four times this difference rose to even 25 percentage points. 

    Consumer sentiment and the stock market

    Stark as this chart’s correlations are, it’s difficult for a sample with just four observations to be statistically significant. To test this indicator’s potential, I next measured its ability to predict the S&P 500’s
    SPX,
    -1.96%

    inflation-adjusted total return over the subsequent one- and five-year periods. The table below reflects data since 1979, which is when monthly data for both of these consumer indices first began to be reported.

    When divergence between CCI and UMI was…

    S&P 500’s average total real return over subsequent 12 months

    S&P 500’s average total real return over subsequent 5 years (annualized)

    In the highest 10% of monthly readings since 1979

    -0.4%

    -3.1%

    In the lowest 10% of monthly readings since 1979

    +14.3%

    +14.8%

    The differences shown in this table are statistically significant at the 95% confidence level that statisticians often use when determining if a pattern is genuine.

    The bottom line? It’s not good news, for the economy in general or the U.S. stock market in particular, that consumers are so much more upbeat about the overall economy than they are about their immediate financial circumstances.

    Mark Hulbert is a regular contributor to MarketWatch. His Hulbert Ratings tracks investment newsletters that pay a flat fee to be audited. He can be reached at mark@hulbertratings.com

    More: The U.S. job market is strong, but layoffs are on the rise. Is this a good — or bad — time to ask for a raise?

    Also read: Bigger paychecks are good news for America’s working families. Why does it freak out the Fed?

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  • Saudi crown prince set to invest in Credit Suisse’s new investment bank

    Saudi crown prince set to invest in Credit Suisse’s new investment bank

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    Saudi Arabia’s crown prince and a U.S. private-equity firm run by Barclays PLC’s former chief executive are among investors preparing to invest $1 billion or more into Credit Suisse’s
    CSGN,
    +6.61%

    CS,
    +9.39%

    new investment bank, people familiar with the matter said. 

    Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is considering an investment of around $500 million to back the new unit, CS First Boston, and its CEO-designate, Michael Klein, some of the people said. Additional financial backing could come from U.S. investors including veteran banker Bob Diamond‘s Atlas Merchant Capital, people familiar with that potential investment said. Credit Suisse previously said it had $500 million committed from an additional investor it hasn’t named.  

    Credit Suisse has received a number of proposals from investors interested in CS First Boston. Credit Suisse Chairman Axel Lehmann at a conference on Thursday said it has other firm commitments in addition to the $500 million from the unnamed investor. The bank hasn’t received a formal proposal from any Saudi entity, some of the people familiar with the matter said. 

    Credit Suisse is spinning off the New York-based investment bank as part of a fresh start after being buffeted by scandals, regulatory scrutiny and steep losses. It is raising $4.2 billion in new stock that separately will make Saudi National Bank its largest shareholder. It isn’t clear if Prince Mohammed would make the investment through that bank, or another investment vehicle. He is chairman of the country’s sovereign-wealth fund, Public Investment Fund, which along with another government fund is Saudi National Bank’s main owner. 

    An expanded version of this report appears on WSJ.com.

    Also popular on WSJ.com:

    Apple makes plans to move production out of China.

    FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried says he can’t account for billions sent to Alameda.

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  • Bill Ackman says he sees why FTX victims want Sam Bankman-Fried to ‘suffer’ severe consequences ‘including jail time’

    Bill Ackman says he sees why FTX victims want Sam Bankman-Fried to ‘suffer’ severe consequences ‘including jail time’

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    Hedge-fund titan Bill Ackman appears to be walking back comments he made via Twitter last week about Sam Bankman-Fried that some interpreted as implicit support for the 30-something who presided over one of the most epic bankruptcies in financial markets in recent memory.

    Last week, Ackman tweeted that Bankman-Fried’s statements made during a widely watched interview, streamed to New York from the crypto founder’s location in the Bahamas, was “believable.”

    “Many have interpreted my tweet to mean that I am defending SBF or somehow supporting him. Nothing could be further from the truth,” Ackman wrote Saturday, referring to Bankman-Fried by his initials SBF.

    Ackman went on to describe the implosion of Bankman-Fried’s crypto exchange FTX, and some of its associated businesses, as “at a minimum, the most egregious, large-scale case of business gross negligence that I have observed in my career.”

    Check out: The Sam Bankman-Fried roadshow rolls on: 10 crazy things the FTX founder has just said

    Ackman, who is the chief executive of Pershing Square Capital, a prominent investor in traditional markets, and an advocate of crypto, last week, tweeted this message following the widely watched interview of Bankman-Fried at the New York Times Dealbook Summit:

    “Call me crazy, but I think SBF is telling the truth.”

    Ackman has been chastised by some for seemingly offering verbal succor to a person who some have accused of, at the least, an epic mismanagement of client assets.

    Speaking against the wishes of his lawyers, Bankman-Fried on Wednesday, during the Dealbook interview, admitted to making mistakes but said that he never intended to mingle client funds with those of the firm to make leveraged bets on crypto via hedge fund Alameda Research, which he founded before he started FTX.

    “I didn’t know exactly what was going on,” Bankman said at the time.

    At least one response to Ackman’s Saturday tweet, questioned whether the hedge funder might be responding to blowback from his own clients.

    It isn’t the first time that Ackman has cast Bankman-Fried’s actions in a positive light. As the implosion of FTX was unfolding, Ackman said, in a now-deleted tweet, that he’d never before seen a CEO take responsibility as the crypto exchange operator did and that he wanted to give him “credit” for his actions. “It reflects well on him and the possibility of a more favorable outcome” for FTX, he wrote.

    On Saturday, one Twitter user asked Ackman if had any ties to Bankman-Fried, which the investor bluntly said he doesn’t.

    Bankman-Fried had been viewed as a financial darling inside and outside the crypto industry until his empire collapsed on Nov. 11 and it was revealed that affiliated hedge fund Alameda lost billions in FTX client money in leveraged crypto bets.

    John Ray, the new chief executive of FTX, in a filing to the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware, described the state of the crypto platform “as a complete failure of corporate controls and such a complete absence of trustworthy financial information.” 

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  • Apple Makes Plans to Move Production Out of China

    Apple Makes Plans to Move Production Out of China

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    In recent weeks, Apple Inc. has accelerated plans to shift some of its production outside China, long the dominant country in the supply chain that built the world’s most valuable company, say people involved in the discussions. It is telling suppliers to plan more actively for assembling Apple products elsewhere in Asia, particularly India and Vietnam, they say, and looking to reduce dependence on Taiwanese assemblers led by Foxconn Technology Group. 

    Turmoil at a place called iPhone City helped propel Apple’s shift. At the giant city-within-a-city in Zhengzhou, China, as many as 300,000 workers work at a factory run by Foxconn to make iPhones and other Apple products. At one point, it alone made about 85% of the Pro lineup of iPhones, according to market-research firm Counterpoint Research. 

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  • Inflation and credit-card debt are on the rise, despite a strong job market. Tell us how the economy is affecting you.

    Inflation and credit-card debt are on the rise, despite a strong job market. Tell us how the economy is affecting you.

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    We want to hear from readers who have stories to share about the effects of increasing costs and a changing economy. If you’d like to share your experience, write to readerstories@marketwatch.com. Please include your name and the best way to reach you. A reporter may be in touch.

    For many people living in the U.S., these are tough — and confusing — times.

    On Friday, the Labor Department reported 263,000 new jobs in November, while the unemployment rate held steady at 3.7%. Layoffs remain low, despite mass job cuts in the tech sector. Average hourly wages have also risen 5.1% in the past year, but still lag behind inflation for many workers. And there were 10.3 million job openings in October — slightly down from the previous month’s 10.7 million. 

    Some people might see the latest economic data as both challenging and confusing.

    After all, the cost of living rose 7.7% on the year in October. The once red-hot housing market is finally cooling, thanks to mortgage rates that have more than doubled over the last year amid the Federal Reserve’s attempts to rein in inflation, and rents, while moderating, have surged from pre-pandemic levels. Borrowing money to cover increased precarity is becoming more expensive too, with the average credit-card APR at 19.2% as of Nov. 30, according to Bankrate.

    ‘It’s just mind-boggling, the disconnect that we’ve seen.’

    Given all the conflicting signals, economists say it can be difficult for consumers to know exactly how to feel about the economy right now. “It’s not new, this disparity between the actual facts on the ground about what’s going on in the economy and the sentiment,” said Heidi Shierholz, president of the Economic Policy Institute, a left-leaning think tank. 

    “I remember this summer it was just unambiguously the strongest jobs recovery we’ve had in decades,” she added. “There’s just absolutely zero chance that we were in a recession — not only were we not in a recession, we were in just an extraordinarily fast recovery — and the polling, a huge share of people actually thought we were in a recession. It’s just mind-boggling, the disconnect that we’ve seen.”

    Still, the fact that inflation is eating into people’s savings — and that essential goods like food, energy and housing have spiked in cost — is bound to make many people unhappy. 

    Struggling to pay for rent and food

    “Going into the pandemic, more than seven out of every 10 extremely low-income renters were already spending more than half of their income on rent. And then the pandemic hits; we saw a lot of low-wage workers lose their jobs and see an income decline,” said Andrew Aurand, vice president for research at the National Low Income Housing Coalition. “Then in 2021, we see this huge spike in prices. For a variety of reasons, they’ve struggled for a long time, and since the pandemic, it’s gotten even worse.”

    Moderate-income Americans are struggling too. Maybe you can’t afford your favorite family meals, as the price of grocery store and supermarket purchases has jumped by 12.4% from last year. Or maybe you’re putting off a trip to see family this holiday season thanks to the higher cost of airfare, or you’re worried about losing your job as some business leaders warn of a recession. Perhaps you’re forced to rely on credit cards and personal loans, as credit-card debt is up 15% from a year ago.

    MarketWatch has chronicled many of these changes, detailing renters’ frustrations, families’ tough choices at the grocery store, and the reality faced by would-be home buyers sidelined by higher rates and dwindling affordability. 

    But we would like your help telling an ongoing story about the American economy, centering the experiences of everyday people. Our readers know better than anyone about how today’s economic conditions have impacted their daily lives.

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  • U.S. COVID cases are climbing again as new omicron variants spread

    U.S. COVID cases are climbing again as new omicron variants spread

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    COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations in the U.S. are rising and intensive-care-unit beds are being filled again, in a trend that may spell an end to the stable period the country experienced during the fall months.

    The daily average of new cases was up 22% on Thursday from two weeks ago, to 49,070, according to a New York Times tracker. Cases are rising in 40 states, led by Oklahoma, where they are up 89% from two weeks ago.

    The daily average for hospitalizations is up 21% from two weeks ago to 33,708, although as always, the trend is not uniform across the nation. Louisiana is the state with the highest increase in hospitalizations, up 109% from two weeks ago, followed by California, where they have climbed 66%.

    Visits to the ICU are up 17%, while test-positivity rates are up 29%, to 10%, the tracker shows. On a brighter note, the daily average for deaths is down 3% to 274. 

    Experts are warning that new omicron subvariants are on the rise and are quickly replacing earlier ones.

    The most recent data release from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention showed that the BQ.1.1 and BQ.1 sublineages of BA.5 accounted for 62.8% of all cases in the U.S. in the week through Dec. 3, exceeding the 13.8% of cases caused by BA.5.

    That was up from 57.3% of cases in the week through Nov. 26, when 19.4% of cases were caused by BA.5.

    In the New York region, which includes New Jersey, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, those numbers were even higher, with BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 accounting for 72.4% of all cases, compared with 6.9% for BA.5.

    That was up from the prior week, when BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 accounted for 70.8% of all cases, compared with 10.4% for BA.5.

    See now: Elon Musk may want employees back in the office, but 29% of Americans still work from home

    For now, the new sublineages have not been shown to be likely to cause more severe disease than earlier ones, but they are more transmissible, which is why they have become dominant.

    Experts continue to urge people to get their updated booster, which is the best protection against developing severe COVID or dying of it.

    Coronavirus Update: MarketWatch’s daily roundup has been curating and reporting all the latest developments every weekday since the coronavirus pandemic began

    Other COVID-19 news you should know about:

    • Local governments in China are facing a new challenge in the battle against COVID: They are running out of cash needed to finance mass testing and enforce quarantines, CNN reported on Friday. The zero-COVID policy kept China out of recession in 2020, but now the bills are mounting, placing financial strain on municipal authorities across the world’s most populous nation, said CNN. For nearly three years, local governments have borne the brunt of enforcing pandemic controls. 

    • Former NBA star Jeremy Lin, who plays for a Chinese team, was fined 10,000 yuan ($1,400) for criticizing quarantine facilities, according to China’s professional league and a news report Friday, the AP reported. The ruling Communist Party is trying to crush criticism of the human cost and disruption of its zero-COVID strategy, which has confined millions of people to their homes.

    Large protests erupted across China as crowds voiced their frustration over nearly three years of COVID-19 controls. Here’s how a deadly fire in Xinjiang sparked domestic upheaval and a political dilemma for Xi Jinping’s leadership. Photo: Thomas Peter/Reuters

    • Formula One confirmed Friday that the Chinese Grand Prix will not take place in 2023, making it the fourth year in a row the race has been canceled because of the coronavirus pandemic, the AP reported separately. “Formula One can confirm, following dialogue with the promoter and relevant authorities, that the 2023 Chinese Grand Prix will not take place due to the ongoing difficulties presented by the COVID-19 situation,” Formula One said in a statement.

    • German doctors are warning that pediatric units are stretched to the breaking point in some hospitals in part due to rising cases of respiratory infections among infants, the AP reported. The intensive-care association DIVI said the seasonal surge in cases of respiratory syncytial virus and a shortage of nurses was causing a “catastrophic situation” in hospitals. RSV is a common, highly contagious virus that infects nearly all babies and toddlers by age 2, some of whom can fall seriously ill. Experts say the easing of coronavirus pandemic restrictions means RSV is currently affecting a larger number of babies and children whose immune systems aren’t primed to fend off the infection.

    Physicians are reporting high numbers of respiratory illnesses like RSV and the flu earlier than the typical winter peak. WSJ’s Brianna Abbott explains what the early surge means for the winter months. Photo illustration: Kaitlyn Wang

    Here’s what the numbers say:

    The global tally of confirmed cases of COVID-19 topped 644.1 million on Friday, while the death toll rose above 6.63 million, according to data aggregated by Johns Hopkins University.

    The U.S. leads the world with 98.9 million cases and 1,081,147 fatalities.

    The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s tracker shows that 228.4 million people living in the U.S., equal to 68.8% of the total population, are fully vaccinated, meaning they have had their primary shots.

    So far, just 39.7 million Americans have had the updated COVID booster that targets the original virus and the omicron variants, equal to 12.7% of the overall population.

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  • U.S. adds 263,000 jobs in November and wages rise sharply — far too much for the Fed’s liking

    U.S. adds 263,000 jobs in November and wages rise sharply — far too much for the Fed’s liking

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    The numbers: The U.S. created a robust 263,000 new jobs in November, a historically strong pace of hiring that’s good for workers but that also threatens to prolong a bout of high U.S. inflation.

    The continued rapid gains in hiring have become a big source of angst at the Federal Reserve. Senior central bank officials worry that wage growth stemming from a tight labor market is adding upward pressure to already high U.S. inflation.

    The Fed is expected to keep raising interest rates — and pushing the economy closer to recession — until hiring slows, labor shortages ease and wage growth drops off.

    U.S. stocks fell in premarket trades and bond yields rose after the report. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had forecast a smaller increase in new jobs of 200,000.

    The U.S. economy created 263,000 new jobs in November — far more than Wall Street had expected.


    Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

    The unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7%, the government said Friday, remaining close to a half-century low.

    Hourly pay, meanwhile, rose by a sharp 0.6% last month to an average of $32.82. That’s the biggest advance in 13 months and was far stronger than Wall Street expected.

    The increase in wages over the past year climbed to 5.1%, from 4.9% in the prior month. Wages are still rising much faster than they were before the pandemic, when they rose about 2% to 3% a year.

    The demand for labor is still strong,” said chief economist Steve Blitz of TS Lombard. “It’s still putting upward pressure on wages.”

    The Fed has embarked on a series of increases in U.S. interest rates to try to slow the economy just enough to tame inflation without tipping it into recession.

    The bank is trying to bring inflation back down to prepandemic levels of 2% from the current rate of 6%, based on the PCE price index.

    “The level of [hiring] is not conducive to getting the base inflation rate back to 2%,” Blitz said.

    The tough medicine, senior Fed officials figure, is likely to lift the unemployment rate to as high as 5% by 2023. Some Wall Street analysts believe the jobless rate will go even higher if a recession takes hold, as many are forecasting.

    Higher borrowing costs slow growth by depressing consumer spending and business investment, the two key pillars of the economy.

    Another potential pressure valve for the economy is also not offering any relief. The share of working-age people in the labor force — known as the labor-force participation rate — fell a tick to 62.1%, marking the third drop in a row.

    The lack of people looking for work is another big factor contributing to the labor shortage.

    Key details: The increase in employment last month was concentrated in hotels, restaurants and healthcare businesses. Americans have gone back to seeing their doctors and are spending more on travel and entertainment.

    Hiring also rose in construction and manufacturing, two areas of the economy that are under more duress, while government employment increased by 42,000.

    There were some signs of labor-market softness in the report. Retail employment shrank for the third month in a row, and warehouse and transportation jobs also declined.

    Hiring at professional businesses, a leader in employment, rose by a meager 6,000. That’s the smallest increase since April 2021.

    Hiring in October and September were little changed after government revisions. The economy added 284,000 jobs in October and 269,000 in September.

    Big picture: The economy is slowing, but the labor force is still an oasis of strength.

    For the Fed, it’s too much of a good thing. The central bank wants the demand and supply of labor to become more balanced to ease the pressure on wages.

    The ongoing labor shortage, however, might be a saving grace for the economy. Many businesses have told the Fed they plan to hold onto more workers than usual even if the economy slows, because it’s been so hard to hire people in the first place.

    If that’s the case, the economy might escape a recession altogether or only suffer a short and shallow downturn, some economists say.

    Looking ahead: “Job creation continues to top expectations, holding the unemployment rate near half-century lows,” said Jim Baird, chief investment officer at Plante Moran Financial Advisors.

    “The Fed may be closing in on a point that the pace of rate hikes could be stepped down, but the combination of tight labor markets and stubbornly elevated inflation leaves policymakers with a clear directive: keep tightening.”

    Market reaction: The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    -0.10%

    and S&P 500
    SPX,
    -0.12%

    were set to decline sharply in Friday trades.

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  • ChargePoint Results Fall Short. Guidance Is Saving the Stock.

    ChargePoint Results Fall Short. Guidance Is Saving the Stock.

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    Shares of EV charging company


    ChargePoint


    have been caught in the sell off that’s hammered small-capitalization stocks that don’t produce earnings or generate free cash flow, yet. Investors hoped that third-quarter earnings could turn sentiment around, but some concerns linger.



    ChargePoint


    (ticker: CHPT), on Thursday afternoon, reported a per-share loss of 25 cents from $125 million in sales. Wall Street was looking for a loss of 20 cents per share on sales of $132.3 million.

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  • Senate passes bill to prevent rail strike, rejects measure providing paid sick leave

    Senate passes bill to prevent rail strike, rejects measure providing paid sick leave

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    The U.S. Senate on Thursday voted 80-15 in favor of a bill that would prevent a rail strike by imposing a deal on freight-rail workers, after rejecting a separate House-passed measure that would require rail companies to provide those workers with seven days of paid sick leave per year.

    The vote for the bill imposing a deal keeps Washington on track to block a strike, as the House of Representatives passed it Wednesday. President Joe Biden is expected to sign the legislation into law given that he called on Monday for Congress to act.

    Business groups have been warning that even a short-term strike would have a tremendous impact and cause economic pain.

    The deal that would be imposed on rail employees includes a 24% increase in wages from 2020 through 2024, but workers have remained concerned about a lack of paid sick time.

    In the vote on sick leave, there were 52 senators in favor, while 43 were opposed, and 60 votes for it were needed. A half dozen Republican senators were in favor, while Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia was the only Democrat in opposition.

    “While I am sympathetic to the concerns union members have raised, I do not believe it is the role of Congress to renegotiate a collective bargaining agreement that has already been negotiated,” Manchin said in a statement

    Earlier Thursday, the Senate also voted against an amendment from Republican senators that aimed to deliver a cooling-off period so talks between rail companies and their workers could continue.

    Railroad operators’ stocks finished with gains Tuesday as traders reacted to Washington’s moves to prevent a strike, but Norfolk Southern Corp.
    NSC,
    -0.05%
    ,
     CSX Corp. 
    CSX,
    -0.03%

    and Union Pacific Corp.
    UNP,
    -0.69%

    all lost ground Thursday as the broad market
    SPX,
    -0.09%

    DJIA,
    -0.56%

    closed mostly lower.

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  • This 82-year-old retiree makes makes moose calls

    This 82-year-old retiree makes makes moose calls

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    Butch Phillips, an 82-year-old member of the Penobscot Nation, etches 18-inch long moose call horns from birch bark he harvests off tribal land. While some moose calls he gives away to local hunters, others have sold at auction for as much as $3,200 and some sit in museums.

    “It’s very exciting calling a moose. You can hear them coming. Snuffing and grunting,” said Phillips, who hunts a moose each year on tribal land, the largest being 940 pounds. He also sometimes calls moose just to watch them and study them.

    Based in Milford, Maine, Phillips has been making the moose calls, which are hornlike devices used to attract moose when hunting, for about 30 years with a wooden-handled knife his late wife bought him. He has more orders than he can keep up with, due in part to some local media coverage and word-of-mouth. He hopes to pass down his skills to his grown sons.

    Phillips retired 31 years ago from telecommunications jobs with NYMEX and AT&T
    T,
    -0.49%
    ,
    and he’s been filling his time with his etching talents ever since.

    “I just can’t imagine being retired with nothing to do. I think I’d go crazy,” Phillips said.

    Plus, in the winter, etching gives him something productive to do to pass time.

    “There’s not a lot you can do outdoors. It gives me something to do rather than just sitting around. Can you imagine doing that for 31 years?” Phillips said.

    Phillips used to make moose calls by peeling a piece of bark off a tree and using it for the day and tossing it aside. Then he started tying spruce roots around the bark to help keep the shape and use it again and again. Hunters started asking for his moose calls and his work spread by word-of-mouth.

    Phillips in a 14-foot birch bark canoe that he built.


    Credit: Butch Phillips

    “Some hunters will use a roadside cone to call a moose. I wanted to do it the traditional way. A large majority of native hunters use a birch bark call,” Phillips said.

    He uses a variety of tools, but the knife given to him by his late wife is his most treasured tool.

    “The blade’s pretty much worn down. But I treasure it. It’s very special,” Phillips said.

    As he became more adept at making moose calls, Phillips started making more permanent models, refining the workmanship and using thicker bark that was suitable for etching.

    “I decided to do etching like they did in the old days. Everything they used to make, they carved. My artwork evolved. I try to keep the older designs alive. I’ve taken symbols like the Wabanaki symbol and incorporated them into the art to keep them alive. I use plants and trees as fillers,” Phillips said.

    “In most of my art work, I try to combine people, plants and animals. We always memorialize our ancestors. And plants and animals are what we owe gratitude to for keeping us alive,” Phillips said. “In our prayers, we always give thanks to ancestors, plants and animals. There’s a theme.”

    Phillips said he writes up explanations of the symbols so each buyer knows what the designs mean. Diamond shapes, for example, represent wigwams, he said. More often these days his buyers are collectors rather than moose hunters.

    Phillips is an expert in his materials.

    “All bark is not created equal. There’s curly bark, thick, thin, white, dark, gray. I use bark that is thick and pliable and doesn’t separate into layers,” Phillips said.

    With winter bark, it’s brown with a thick rind on the inside. He has to take it off the tree carefully and scrape away the rind to make designs. He can approach the etching in two ways – either scraping away the entire background and leaving just a thin image, or carve images onto rind. Summer bark has no rind and is just yellow.

    His museum-quality pieces have used winter bark with an elaborate scraping process that leaves thin details for designs. Those are the toughest to do, he said.

    Phillips approaches each moose call with an open mind and has no preconceived idea of what the designs will be. The bark just speaks to him.

    “I never plan on paper what it’s going to look like. Most of the time I have no idea until it evolves,” Phillips said.

    In the center of the device, he often puts an image of a moose or a moose head. For special orders, he might be asked to incorporate an image of a hawk or favorite dog or even a woodpecker, in one case. He adds touches like a flower, acorns or moose tracks to fill in blank areas.

    “Each side is balanced because nature is balanced,” Phillips said. “Every design is unique.”

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  • Chinese cities announce further easing of COVID curbs, though police are still patrolling streets to stop protests

    Chinese cities announce further easing of COVID curbs, though police are still patrolling streets to stop protests

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    Major Chinese cities on Thursday announced a further easing of COVID restrictions, as police continued to patrol streets to avert protests and the ruling Communist Party prepared for the funeral of late leader Jiang Zemin.

    Guangzhou in the south, Shijiazhuang in the north, Chengdu in the southwest and other major cities announced they were easing testing requirements and controls on movement, as the Associated Press reported. In some areas, markets and bus service has reopened.

    In Beijing, officials will let those infected patients who are at low risk to quarantine at home for a week, rather than in a government center, Bloomberg reported, citing unnamed sources.

     China has required anyone with any degree of COVID to stay at those sites to cut transmission. The first signs of the shift have been seen in the heavily populated Chaoyang district, home to foreign embassies and offices.

    Read now: Protests against strict COVID-zero policy are sweeping China but there is no sign yet of a national political movement

    Beijing is hoping to avoid more protests, while resources are also getting thin, those sources said. However, anyone wanting to isolate at home will have to provide a written guarantee to stay at home, with a magnetized alarm fitted on their door that will alert authorized if they try to leave, one source said. Bloomberg was unable to confirm the reports with officials from Beijing or its health department.

    Large protests erupted across China as crowds voiced their frustration at nearly three years of Covid-19 controls. Here’s how a deadly fire in Xinjiang sparked domestic upheaval and a political dilemma for Xi Jinping’s leadership. Photo: Thomas Peter/Reuters

    The World Health Organization’s weekly update shows the global tally of cases was flat in the week through Nov. 27 from the week earlier. The number of fatalities fell by 5% from the previous week.

    Japan again led the world by new cases, with an 18% increase to 698,772. It was followed by South Korea, where cases rose 4% to 378,751 and the U.S., where they rose 8% to 296,882.

    Omicron and its many subvariants and sublineages remained dominant in the period from Oct. 28 to Nov. 28, accounting for 99.9% of sequences reported to a central database. The BA.5 omicron subvariant and its sublineages were dominant in the week through Nov. 13 at 73.% of all sequences, and newer strains, including BQ. 1 and XBB continued to spread in November, the agency said.

    In the U.S., known cases of COVID are rising again with the daily average standing at 45,219 on Wednesday, according to a New York Times tracker, up 15% from two weeks ago. Cases are now rising in 37 states from two weeks ago, as well as in Guam and Washington, D.C., led by Georgia, where they are up 60%, and California, where they have climbed 57%.

    The daily average for hospitalizations was up 16% at 32,445, but again, the pace of the increase is not uniform across the country. Louisiana has the highest increase in hospitalizations at 99% from two weeks ago, followed by California, where they are up 62%.

    The daily average for deaths is down 7% at 262.

    Physicians are reporting high numbers of respiratory illnesses like RSV and the flu earlier than the typical winter peak. WSJ’s Brianna Abbott explains what the early surge means for the coming winter months. Photo illustration: Kaitlyn Wang

    Coronavirus Update: MarketWatch’s daily roundup has been curating and reporting all the latest developments every weekday since the coronavirus pandemic began

    Other COVID-19 news you should know about:

    • Nineteen people, including 17 New York City and New York state public employees, were charged in a federal complaint unsealed Wednesday with submitting fraudulent applications for funds intended to help small businesses survive the coronavirus pandemic, the AP reported. The accused, including employees of New York City’s police department, correction department and public school system, listed themselves as owners of businesses that in some cases did not exist in their applications for funds through the Small Business Administration’s Economic Injury Disaster Loan program and Paycheck Protection Program, federal prosecutors in Manhattan said. The defendants collectively stole more than $1.5 million from the SBA and financial institutions that issued SBA-guaranteed loans, prosecutors said.

    • The number of people in Europe with undiagnosed HIV has risen as testing rates fell during the pandemic, threatening a global goal of ending the disease by 2030, Reuters reported, citing a report from the WHO and European Center for Disease Prevention and Control. The report found that in 2021 a quarter fewer HIV diagnoses were recorded compared to pre-pandemic levels in the WHO’s European region.

    • Republican Gov. Jim Justice said Wednesday that West Virginia’s state of emergency related to the COVID-19 pandemic will end at the start of the new year, the AP reported. The state of emergency has been in effect since March 16, 2020. It allows the governor to suspend certain rules on personnel and purchasing. “The truth is, the state of emergency doesn’t affect a whole lot, you know, anymore,” he said. “We absolutely declared an emergency at a time that we had an emergency. … Now, we need to move on.”

    Here’s what the numbers say:

    The global tally of confirmed cases of COVID-19 topped 643.4 million on Thursday, while the death toll rose above 6.63 million, according to data aggregated by Johns Hopkins University.

    The U.S. leads the world with 98.8 million cases and 1,080,444 fatalities.

    The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s tracker shows that 228.4 million people living in the U.S., equal to 68.8% of the total population, are fully vaccinated, meaning they have had their primary shots.

    So far, just 37.6 million Americans have had the updated COVID booster that targets the original virus and the omicron variants, equal to 12.1% of the overall population.

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  • Home Page – MarketWatch

    Home Page – MarketWatch

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    Golden Dragon China ETF pulls back after record monthly rally in November

    The Invesco Golden Dragon China ETF started December with a pullback, after enjoying a record monthly rally in November amid increasing signs that China was starting to back off from the zero-COVID policy. The ETF, which tracks American depositary shares (ADS) of China-based companies that only list in the U.S., slipped 0.9% in premarket trading Thursday, after running up 9.6% on Wednesday and 41.8% in November. The pullback comes as futures for the S&P 500 tacked on 0.4%, after the index jumped 3.1% on Wednesday. The Golden Dragon ETF’s biggest decliner ahead of Thursday’s open was electric vehicle maker XPeng Inc.’s stock, which dropped 6.0% after rocketing a daily record 47.3% on Wednesday. Elsewhere, shares of Nio Inc. fell 2.0%, Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. shed 2.5%, Li Auto Inc. gave up 3.6%, Tencent Music Entertainment Inc. declined 0.9% and Pinduoduo Inc. was down 2.3%.

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  • Okta CEO promises profit for all of next year — ‘The problem was never that we didn’t have talented sales people’

    Okta CEO promises profit for all of next year — ‘The problem was never that we didn’t have talented sales people’

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    Okta Inc. executives on Wednesday said they will report an adjusted profit in the fourth quarter and, in a surprise, predicted profitability for all of next fiscal year, trumping profit concerns stemming from recent sales-operation issues.

    For the fourth quarter, Okta
    OKTA,
    +4.04%

    guided for adjusted earnings of 9 cents to 10 cents a share on revenue of $488 million to $490 million. Analysts, on average, were expecting an adjusted loss of 12 cents a share on sales of $488.3 million, according to FactSet.

    In a surprise announcement during the conference call, Chief Financial Officer Brett Tighe revealed a full forecast for fiscal 2024 as well. Most software companies shy away from such practices amid uncertainty about macroeconomic conditions. He said Okta executives are aiming for adjusted profits for the full year on revenue of $2.13 billion to $2.15 billion. Analysts on average expected adjusted losses of 30 cents a share on sales of $2.3 billion, beating profit projections widely but also missing sales expectations by more than $100 million.

    Shares rallied as much as 18% in after-hours trading immediately following the release of the results, but those gains noticeably pared back to a steady 12% level after Tighe announced the outlook to analysts on the call. They have fallen 76% so far this year, compared with a 27% decline by the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index
    COMP,
    +4.41%
    .

    In an exclusive interview with MarketWatch ahead of the company’s conference call, Okta Chief Executive and co-founder Todd McKinnon said the company is not providing any forecasts past 2024 because of uncertainty in the macro environment.

    “We’re thinking a pretty conservative assumption that the macro is going to get worse before it gets better, so that’s definitely factored into the guide,” McKinnon told MarketWatch.

    On a more positive note, McKinnon said sales-rep attrition has been the lowest it has been in the past several quarters, following a spike last quarter. Okta also announced that Susan St. Ledger, the president of worldwide field operations, is retiring and McKinnon will take over her duties on an interim basis.

    “What we’ve done over the last six months is what a lot of companies are doing, slowing hiring, re-evaluating real estate, doubling down on the things we know are high value. And some of the things that are maybe less value we’re doing less of, so that’s where we see the profitability come from,” McKinnon told MarketWatch.

    Much of that comes from addressing the company’s struggle in combining Okta’s salesforce with sales reps acquired in the May 2021 acquisition of identity-platform Auth0 (pronounced “Auth Zero”), which is more focused on direct-to-user sales than Okta’s corporate focus.

    “The problem was never that we didn’t have talented sales people,” McKinnon told MarketWatch. “The problem is that we didn’t enable them and clarify things with them.”

    In-depth: Okta CEO says ‘short-term challenges’ resulted in workers leaving at a higher rate

    “We still have work to do,” McKinnon said. “We don’t think we’ve solved it after one quarter of a positive trend but I do think it’s progress.”

    “The biggest factor: We’ve really done a much better job clarifying the products and the positioning and saying we have two clouds: We have Workforce Identity Cloud and Customer Identity Cloud and it’s very clear what to sell when,” he said.

    Okta reported a third-quarter loss of $208.9 million, or $1.32 a share, compared with a loss of $221.3 million, or $1.44 a share, in the year-ago period. After adjusting for stock-based compensation expenses and other items, the company reported break-even results on a per-share basis, compared with a loss of 7 cents a share in the year-ago period. Revenue rose to $481.4 million from $350.7 million in the year-ago quarter.

    Analysts had forecast an adjusted loss of 24 cents a share on revenue of $465.4 million, based on the company’s forecast for a loss of 24 cents to 25 cents a share on sales of $463 million to $465 million.

    For the current year, Okta forecast an adjusted loss of 27 cents to 26 cents a share on revenue of about $1.84 billion, compared with the Street’s forecast of 73 cents a share on revenue of $1.82 billion.

    So far in November, cloud software stocks have been getting trashed. While the S&P 500
    SPX,
    +3.09%

    has gained 5.4%, and the Nasdaq has advanced 4.4%, the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF
    IGV,
    +4.39%

    has risen 1.6%, the Global X Cloud Computing ETF
    CLOU,
    +6.00%

    has ticked up 0.8%, the First Trust Cloud Computing ETF
    SKYY,
    +4.54%

    has fallen 2%, and the WisdomTree Cloud Computing Fund
    WCLD,
    +4.99%

    has dropped 6.9%.

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  • Salesforce co-CEO Bret Taylor leaving, stock falls after lower-than-expected forecast

    Salesforce co-CEO Bret Taylor leaving, stock falls after lower-than-expected forecast

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    Salesforce Inc. performed better than expected in the third quarter, but executives issued a fourth-quarter forecast that fell short of expectations on Wednesday and revealed that co-Chief Executive Bret Taylor is leaving the company.

    Salesforce
    CRM,
    +5.65%

    shares fell about 7% after hours, after rising about 5.5% in the regular session to close at $159.97, their fifth gain in the past six sessions. 

    The cloud-software company said in a news release that founder, co-CEO and Chairman Marc Benioff will resume the sole CEO role on Jan. 31. Taylor is the second executive to be elevated to co-CEO with Benioff, only to leave with Benioff still in charge. Keith Block stepped down in February 2020 after just 18 months in the position, and Taylor lasted exactly a year in the co-CEO position after being promoted Nov. 30 of last year.

    “I am grateful for six fantastic years at Salesforce,” Taylor, who was also vice chairman, said in a statement. “Marc was my mentor well before I joined Salesforce and the opportunity to partner with him to lead the most important software company in the world is career-defining. After a lot of reflection, I’ve decided to return to my entrepreneurial roots.”

    See more: Opinion: Salesforce better get used to Marc Benioff in charge, because he keeps chasing off his chosen successors

    On the company’s earnings call, Benioff said “we’re still in a little bit of shock and extremely sad” about Taylor’s exit, but did not answer an analyst’s question about whether he would fill the co-CEO position.

    At least one analyst said he didn’t see the departure coming: “Given that Mr. Taylor was assumed to be the ‘heir apparent’ at CRM, this does bring up a lot of questions in terms of the management team and frankly offsets some of the positive narrative around margins heading into [calendar year 2023],” wrote Kirk Materne, analyst for Evercore ISI, in a note Wednesday.

    Salesforce reported that third-quarter net income fell to $210 million, or 21 cents a share, compared with $468 million, or 47 cents a share, in the year-ago period. Adjusted for stock-based compensation and other costs, earnings were $1.40 a share. Revenue rose to $7.84 billion from $6.86 billion in the year-ago quarter.

    Analysts, who have been expressing concerns about a slowdown in business-software spending, had forecast adjusted earnings of $1.22 a share on revenue of $7.83 billion, according to FactSet.

    “We remain positive on the long-term outlook for Salesforce as front-office applications leader,” Michael Turits, analyst for KeyBanc Capital Markets, wrote ahead of the company’s earnings report. “That said, we remain cautious regarding the near-term outlook given ongoing recession concerns, slowing cloud spend, and weaker conversations we had with a few Salesforce channels this quarter.”

    Those concerns sprung up in the company’s forecast, as Salesforce executives’ guidance fell $900 million short of expectations. They expect fourth-quarter earnings of 23 cents to 25 cents a share on revenue in the range of $7.932 billion to $8.032 billion, and adjusted earnings of $1.35 to $1.37 a share. Analysts had forecast adjusted earnings of $1.44 a share on revenue of $8.94 billion.

    Chief Financial Officer Amy Weaver said on the earnings call that along with the “unpredictable” macroeconomic environment and some slowing in customer spending, the strong dollar had an impact on the company’s showing. “Foreign exchange continued to be a headwind for our results,” she said.

    Still, Weaver said the company remains committed to a goal of operating margins of 25% or above; in the third quarter it was at 22.7%, which she said was a record high. Among the things the company is doing, she said, is taking a measured approach to hiring. Earlier this month, the company confirmed hundreds of layoffs, though it did not address them during the call.

    See: Tech layoffs approach Great Recession levels

    In response to an analyst’s question about employees working from home and the company’s real-estate footprint, Benioff said the San Francisco-based company will have more employees in the office while maintaining the flexibility of remote work. “We’re never going back to how it was, we all know that,” he said. Meanwhile, Weaver said the company is “looking at every aspect of our real estate .”

    Shares of Salesforce have declined about 37% this year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    +2.18%
    ,
    whose 30 components include Salesforce, has fallen about 5% year to date, while the S&P 500 index
    SPX,
    +3.09%

    is down almost 15% this year.

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  • XPeng stock rockets toward record rally as bulls brush off bad results, outlook

    XPeng stock rockets toward record rally as bulls brush off bad results, outlook

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    The U.S.-listed shares of China-based electric vehicle maker XPeng Inc. skyrocketed Wednesday, as investors cheered changes in China’s COVID policy while shrugging off weak third-quarter results and a downbeat outlook.

    The stock
    XPEV,
    +45.44%

    charged up 45.0% in midday trading, enough to pace all gainers on the New York Stock Exchange. It was also headed for the biggest one-day gain since going public in August 2020, surpassing the previous record advance of 33.9% on Nov. 23, 2020.

    The rally comes even after XPeng reported a wider-than-expected loss for the third-straight quarter, missed on revenue for the first time and said it expected fourth-quarter revenue to fall 40% to 44% from a year ago while the FactSet consensus called for just a 4.4 decline.

    Instead, investors seemed China appeared to move toward easing its zero-COVID policy, amid growing social unrest and a slowing economy. China’s government said Tuesday that it would renew its push to vaccinate the elderly, and said it would amend COVID control measures.

    XPeng’s stock rally also comes at a time when investor sentiment had soured. Earlier this week, Jefferies analyst Johnson Wan downgraded the EV maker, citing recent “missteps” by the company at a time that the “honeymoon stage” for EVs in China was coming to an end.

    In addition, short interest, or bearish bets on XPeng’s stock, was 5.7% of the public float, or freely tradable shares, based on the latest available exchange data. That compares with short interest as a percent of float for China-based rivals Nio Inc.
    NIO,
    +20.14%

    at 4.1% and Li Auto Inc.
    LI,
    +18.35%

    at 4.7%.

    For Tesla Inc.
    TSLA,
    +2.12%
    ,
    which generated $5.13 billion in revenue from China in its latest quarter, or about 24% of total revenue, short interest as a percent of float was 2.9%.

    XPeng’s stock has soared 60.7% in November but has still tumbled 41.7% over the past three months. In comparison, the Invesco Golden Dragon China exchange-traded fund
    PGJ,
    +8.98%

    has shed 11.7% the past three months while the S&P 500 index
    SPX,
    +0.62%

    has slipped 1.1%.

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  • U.S. pending home sales drop for fifth straight month in October

    U.S. pending home sales drop for fifth straight month in October

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    The numbers: U.S. pending home sales fell 4.6% in October, the fifth straight monthly decline, the National Association of Realtors said Wednesday. 

    Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal expected pending home sales to fall 5.5%. 

    The index captures transactions where a contract has been signed, but the home sale has not yet closed.

    Key details: On a year-on-year basis, pending home sales were down a sharp 37%.

    Sales fell in three of the four regions, with the Midwest registering an increase.

    Big picture: Sales have stalled as mortgage rates have jumped, making houses less affordable. Pending home sales are a leading indicator for the sector. Some economists think that buyers might return to the market as mortgage rates have plateaued.

    Market reaction: Stocks
    DJIA,
    -0.63%

    SPX,
    -0.35%

    opened slightly higher on Wednesday. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note jumped to 3.78%.

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  • CrowdStrike stock drops nearly 20% as elongating sales cycle slows new subscriptions

    CrowdStrike stock drops nearly 20% as elongating sales cycle slows new subscriptions

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    CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. shares dropped in the extended session Tuesday after the cybersecurity company said new subscriptions came in below expectations amid macro headwinds and longer customer buying cycles.

    Given concern that businesses are cutting back on spending, CrowdStrike 
    CRWD,
    -1.04%

    shares plummeted nearly 20% after hours, following a 1% decline in the regular session to close at $138.

    George Kurtz, CrowdStrike’s co-founder and chief executive, told analysts on a conference call that the company reported $198.1 million in net new annual recurring revenue, or ARR, in the quarter, not as much as it had hoped. 

    ARR is a software-as-a-service metric that shows how much revenue the company can expect based on subscriptions. That grew 54% to $2.34 billion from the year-ago quarter, while the Street expected $2.35 billion. Kurtz said that about $10 million was deferred to future quarters.

    “We expect these macro headwinds to persist through Q4,” Kurtz told analysts.

    Burt Podbere, CrowdStrike’s chief financial officer, explained that the company relies on ARR because it’s “an X-ray into the contract sales.”

    “As George mentioned, even though we entered Q2 with a record pipeline, and we are expecting the elongated sales cycles due to macro concerns to continue, we’re not expecting to see the typical Q4 budget flush given the increased scrutiny on budgets.”

    Podbere said it is “prudent to assume” fourth-quarter net new ARR will be up to 10% below the third quarter’s. That would mean about a 10% year-over-year headwind going into the first half of next year, and “full-year net new ARR would be roughly flat to modestly up year over year.”

    “This would imply a low 30s ending ARR growth rate and a subscription revenue growth rate in the low to mid-30s for FY 2024,” Podbere said.

    Read: Cloud software is suffering a cold November rain. Can Snowflake and Salesforce turn things around?

    The company expects adjusted fiscal fourth-quarter earnings of 42 cents to 45 cents a share on revenue of $619.1 million to $628.2 million, while analysts surveyed by FactSet forecast earnings of 34 cents a share on revenue of $633.9 million, according to analysts.

    CrowdStrike expects full-year earnings of $1.49 to $1.52 a share on revenue of $2.22 billion to $2.23 billion. Wall Street expects $1.33 a share on revenue of $2.23 billion.

    The company reported a fiscal third-quarter loss of $55 million, or 24 cents a share, compared with a loss of $50.5 million, or 22 cents a share, in the year-ago period. Adjusted net income, which excludes stock-based compensation and other items, was 40 cents a share, compared with 17 cents a share in the year-ago period.

    Revenue rose to $580.9 million from $380.1 million in the year-ago quarter.

    Analysts expected CrowdStrike to report earnings of 28 cents a share on revenue of $516 million, based on the company’s outlook of 30 cents to 32 cents a share on revenue of $569.1 million to $575.9 million.

    So far in November, cloud software stocks have been getting trashed. While the S&P 500
    SPX,
    -0.16%

    has gained 2%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite
    COMP,
    -0.59%

    is flat, the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF
    IGV,
    -0.78%

    has fallen more than 2%, the Global X Cloud Computing ETF
    CLOU,
    -1.12%

    has declined more than 4%, the First Trust Cloud Computing ETF
    SKYY,
    -0.74%

    has fallen more than 6%, and the WisdomTree Cloud Computing Fund
    WCLD,
    -1.05%

    has dropped more than 11%.

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  • 20 dividend stocks with high yields that have become more attractive right now

    20 dividend stocks with high yields that have become more attractive right now

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    Income-seeking investors are looking at an opportunity to scoop up shares of real estate investment trusts. Stocks in that asset class have become more attractive as prices have fallen and cash flow is improving.

    Below is a broad screen of REITs that have high dividend yields and are also expected to generate enough excess cash in 2023 to enable increases in dividend payouts.

    REIT prices may turn a corner in 2023

    REITs distribute most of their income to shareholders to maintain their tax-advantaged status. But the group is cyclical, with pressure on share prices when interest rates rise, as they have this year at an unprecedented scale. A slowing growth rate for the group may have also placed a drag on the stocks.

    And now, with talk that the Federal Reserve may begin to temper its cycle of interest-rate increases, we may be nearing the time when REIT prices rise in anticipation of an eventual decline in interest rates. The market always looks ahead, which means long-term investors who have been waiting on the sidelines to buy higher-yielding income-oriented investments may have to make a move soon.

    During an interview on Nov 28, James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and a member of the Federal Open Market Committee, discussed the central bank’s cycle of interest-rate increases meant to reduce inflation.

    When asked about the potential timing of the Fed’s “terminal rate” (the peak federal funds rate for this cycle), Bullard said: “Generally speaking, I have advocated that sooner is better, that you do want to get to the right level of the policy rate for the current data and the current situation.”

    Fed’s Bullard says in MarketWatch interview that markets are underpricing the chance of still-higher rates

    In August we published this guide to investing in REITs for income. Since the data for that article was pulled on Aug. 24, the S&P 500
    SPX,
    -0.29%

    has declined 4% (despite a 10% rally from its 2022 closing low on Oct. 12), but the benchmark index’s real estate sector has declined 13%.

    REITs can be placed broadly into two categories. Mortgage REITs lend money to commercial or residential borrowers and/or invest in mortgage-backed securities, while equity REITs own property and lease it out.

    The pressure on share prices can be greater for mortgage REITs, because the mortgage-lending business slows as interest rates rise. In this article we are focusing on equity REITs.

    Industry numbers

    The National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts (Nareit) reported that third-quarter funds from operations (FFO) for U.S.-listed equity REITs were up 14% from a year earlier. To put that number in context, the year-over-year growth rate of quarterly FFO has been slowing — it was 35% a year ago. And the third-quarter FFO increase compares to a 23% increase in earnings per share for the S&P 500 from a year earlier, according to FactSet.

    The NAREIT report breaks out numbers for 12 categories of equity REITs, and there is great variance in the growth numbers, as you can see here.

    FFO is a non-GAAP measure that is commonly used to gauge REITs’ capacity for paying dividends. It adds amortization and depreciation (noncash items) back to earnings, while excluding gains on the sale of property. Adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) goes further, netting out expected capital expenditures to maintain the quality of property investments.

    The slowing FFO growth numbers point to the importance of looking at REITs individually, to see if expected cash flow is sufficient to cover dividend payments.

    Screen of high-yielding equity REITs

    For 2022 through Nov. 28, the S&P 500 has declined 17%, while the real estate sector has fallen 27%, excluding dividends.

    Over the very long term, through interest-rate cycles and the liquidity-driven bull market that ended this year, equity REITs have fared well, with an average annual return of 9.3% for 20 years, compared to an average return of 9.6% for the S&P 500, both with dividends reinvested, according to FactSet.

    This performance might surprise some investors, when considering the REITs’ income focus and the S&P 500’s heavy weighting for rapidly growing technology companies.

    For a broad screen of equity REITs, we began with the Russell 3000 Index
    RUA,
    -0.04%
    ,
    which represents 98% of U.S. companies by market capitalization.

    We then narrowed the list to 119 equity REITs that are followed by at least five analysts covered by FactSet for which AFFO estimates are available.

    If we divide the expected 2023 AFFO by the current share price, we have an estimated AFFO yield, which can be compared with the current dividend yield to see if there is expected “headroom” for dividend increases.

    For example, if we look at Vornado Realty Trust
    VNO,
    +1.03%
    ,
    the current dividend yield is 8.56%. Based on the consensus 2023 AFFO estimate among analysts polled by FactSet, the expected AFFO yield is only 7.25%. This doesn’t mean that Vornado will cut its dividend and it doesn’t even mean the company won’t raise its payout next year. But it might make it less likely to do so.

    Among the 119 equity REITs, 104 have expected 2023 AFFO headroom of at least 1.00%.

    Here are the 20 equity REITs from our screen with the highest current dividend yields that have at least 1% expected AFFO headroom:

    Company

    Ticker

    Dividend yield

    Estimated 2023 AFFO yield

    Estimated “headroom”

    Market cap. ($mil)

    Main concentration

    Brandywine Realty Trust

    BDN,
    +2.12%
    11.52%

    12.82%

    1.30%

    $1,132

    Offices

    Sabra Health Care REIT Inc.

    SBRA,
    +2.41%
    9.70%

    12.04%

    2.34%

    $2,857

    Health care

    Medical Properties Trust Inc.

    MPW,
    +2.53%
    9.18%

    11.46%

    2.29%

    $7,559

    Health care

    SL Green Realty Corp.

    SLG,
    +2.25%
    9.16%

    10.43%

    1.28%

    $2,619

    Offices

    Hudson Pacific Properties Inc.

    HPP,
    +1.41%
    9.12%

    12.69%

    3.57%

    $1,546

    Offices

    Omega Healthcare Investors Inc.

    OHI,
    +1.23%
    9.05%

    10.13%

    1.08%

    $6,936

    Health care

    Global Medical REIT Inc.

    GMRE,
    +2.55%
    8.75%

    10.59%

    1.84%

    $629

    Health care

    Uniti Group Inc.

    UNIT,
    +0.55%
    8.30%

    25.00%

    16.70%

    $1,715

    Communications infrastructure

    EPR Properties

    EPR,
    +0.86%
    8.19%

    12.24%

    4.05%

    $3,023

    Leisure properties

    CTO Realty Growth Inc.

    CTO,
    +2.22%
    7.51%

    9.34%

    1.83%

    $381

    Retail

    Highwoods Properties Inc.

    HIW,
    +0.99%
    6.95%

    8.82%

    1.86%

    $3,025

    Offices

    National Health Investors Inc.

    NHI,
    +2.59%
    6.75%

    8.32%

    1.57%

    $2,313

    Senior housing

    Douglas Emmett Inc.

    DEI,
    +0.87%
    6.74%

    10.30%

    3.55%

    $2,920

    Offices

    Outfront Media Inc.

    OUT,
    +0.89%
    6.68%

    11.74%

    5.06%

    $2,950

    Billboards

    Spirit Realty Capital Inc.

    SRC,
    +1.15%
    6.62%

    9.07%

    2.45%

    $5,595

    Retail

    Broadstone Net Lease Inc.

    BNL,
    -0.30%
    6.61%

    8.70%

    2.08%

    $2,879

    Industial

    Armada Hoffler Properties Inc.

    AHH,
    +0.00%
    6.38%

    7.78%

    1.41%

    $807

    Offices

    Innovative Industrial Properties Inc.

    IIPR,
    +1.42%
    6.24%

    7.53%

    1.29%

    $3,226

    Health care

    Simon Property Group Inc.

    SPG,
    +1.03%
    6.22%

    9.55%

    3.33%

    $37,847

    Retail

    LTC Properties Inc.

    LTC,
    +1.42%
    5.99%

    7.60%

    1.60%

    $1,541

    Senior housing

    Source: FactSet

    Click on the tickers for more about each company. You should read Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information for free on the MarketWatch quote page.

    The list includes each REIT’s main property investment type. However, many REITs are highly diversified. The simplified categories on the table may not cover all of their investment properties.

    Knowing what a REIT invests in is part of the research you should do on your own before buying any individual stock. For arbitrary examples, some investors may wish to steer clear of exposure to certain areas of retail or hotels, or they may favor health-care properties.

    Largest REITs

    Several of the REITs that passed the screen have relatively small market capitalizations. You might be curious to see how the most widely held REITs fared in the screen. So here’s another list of the 20 largest U.S. REITs among the 119 that passed the first cut, sorted by market cap as of Nov. 28:

    Company

    Ticker

    Dividend yield

    Estimated 2023 AFFO yield

    Estimated “headroom”

    Market cap. ($mil)

    Main concentration

    Prologis Inc.

    PLD,
    +1.63%
    2.84%

    4.36%

    1.52%

    $102,886

    Warehouses and logistics

    American Tower Corp.

    AMT,
    +0.75%
    2.66%

    4.82%

    2.16%

    $99,593

    Communications infrastructure

    Equinix Inc.

    EQIX,
    +0.80%
    1.87%

    4.79%

    2.91%

    $61,317

    Data centers

    Crown Castle Inc.

    CCI,
    +0.93%
    4.55%

    5.42%

    0.86%

    $59,553

    Wireless Infrastructure

    Public Storage

    PSA,
    +0.19%
    2.77%

    5.35%

    2.57%

    $50,680

    Self-storage

    Realty Income Corp.

    O,
    +0.72%
    4.82%

    6.46%

    1.64%

    $38,720

    Retail

    Simon Property Group Inc.

    SPG,
    +1.03%
    6.22%

    9.55%

    3.33%

    $37,847

    Retail

    VICI Properties Inc.

    VICI,
    +0.81%
    4.69%

    6.21%

    1.52%

    $32,013

    Leisure properties

    SBA Communications Corp. Class A

    SBAC,
    +0.27%
    0.97%

    4.33%

    3.36%

    $31,662

    Communications infrastructure

    Welltower Inc.

    WELL,
    +3.06%
    3.66%

    4.76%

    1.10%

    $31,489

    Health care

    Digital Realty Trust Inc.

    DLR,
    +0.63%
    4.54%

    6.18%

    1.64%

    $30,903

    Data centers

    Alexandria Real Estate Equities Inc.

    ARE,
    +1.49%
    3.17%

    4.87%

    1.70%

    $24,451

    Offices

    AvalonBay Communities Inc.

    AVB,
    +0.98%
    3.78%

    5.69%

    1.90%

    $23,513

    Multifamily residential

    Equity Residential

    EQR,
    +1.46%
    4.02%

    5.36%

    1.34%

    $23,503

    Multifamily residential

    Extra Space Storage Inc.

    EXR,
    +0.31%
    3.93%

    5.83%

    1.90%

    $20,430

    Self-storage

    Invitation Homes Inc.

    INVH,
    +2.15%
    2.84%

    5.12%

    2.28%

    $18,948

    Single-family residental

    Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc.

    MAA,
    +1.83%
    3.16%

    5.18%

    2.02%

    $18,260

    Multifamily residential

    Ventas Inc.

    VTR,
    +2.22%
    4.07%

    5.95%

    1.88%

    $17,660

    Senior housing

    Sun Communities Inc.

    SUI,
    +2.12%
    2.51%

    4.81%

    2.30%

    $17,346

    Multifamily residential

    Source: FactSet

    Simon Property Group Inc.
    SPG,
    +1.03%

    is the only REIT to make both lists.

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