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  • A stock-market milestone: Apple is now worth more than the entire Russell 2000

    A stock-market milestone: Apple is now worth more than the entire Russell 2000

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    The market capitalization of Apple Inc. has surpassed that of the entire Russell 2000 for two weeks, the longest stretch on record, according to Bloomberg data.

    Apple’s market capitalization, which measures how much the company is worth based on the value of all its outstanding stock, surpassed that of the Russell 2000
    RUT,
    +1.19%

    on April 27 and has held higher through Monday. The only other time that occurred was Sept. 1, 2020, when Apple’s valuation passed that of the small-cap index for only a day.

    Apple’s premium over this group of small-cap stocks continued to widen over the past two weeks as the consumer-technology giant reported earnings that surpassed Wall Street analysts’ expectations.

    With a market capitalization of roughly $2.7 trillion, Apple is now worth roughly $100 billion more than the combined value of all 2,000 stocks in the Russell 2000, according to Bloomberg data shared with MarketWatch.

    To be sure, the gap narrowed somewhat on Monday as Apple shares declined by 0.4% to $171.80, while the Russell 2000 gained 1.3% to trade at 1,763.

    A team of stock-market analysts from Bespoke Investment Group illustrated the trend in a chart shared on Twitter Monday.

    U.S. equity benchmarks have powered higher in 2023, but some say the strength in popular indexs like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite has masked weakness in other corners of the market.

    Both the S&P 500, which has risen more than 7% year-to-date, and the Nasdaq Composite, which has risen nearly 18%, owe the bulk of their gains to a handful of megacap technology stocks including Apple, Microsoft Corp.
    MSFT,
    +0.16%
    ,
    Alphabet Inc.
    GOOG,
    -0.81%

    and Nvidia Corp.
    NVDA,
    +2.16%

    The top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 hold a 29% weight in the index, and have been responsible for around 70% of its year-to-date performance gains, according to a MarketWatch report from last week.

    See: The S&P 500 is top-heavy with tech. Here’s what that says about future stock-market returns.

    The Russell 2000, meanwhile, is essentially unchanged since the start of 2023. Apple, by comparison, has risen more than 32% since Jan. 1, according to FactSet data. The relative weakness in small-caps has inspired discussion about whether this might be a buying opportunity, as market strategists told Barron’s.

    See: Small-Cap Stocks Have Been Crushed. 3 With Big Potential.

    Small-caps have struggled against a plethora of headwinds since the start of 2023. Shrinking corporate earnings, a string of regional-bank failures and signs of a looming recession have taken a heavy toll. Facing so much uncertainty, equity investors have sought safety in shares of megacap technology names this year following a punishing selloff in 2022.

    “It is pretty incredible that one company could overtake an entire universe of small-cap stocks in terms of size,” said Callie Cox, U.S. equity strategist at eToro, during a phone interview with MarketWatch. “To me, it really speaks to how beaten down small-caps are.”

    When Apple reported earnings for the quarter ended in March last week, the company’s management revealed a surprise growth in its iPhone business, which helped to overcoming a shortfall in Mac revenue. The company also promised investors billions more in dividends and stock repurchases, which helped to boost the stock price. Apple’s shares traded higher in response.

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  • U.S. stocks sputter as investors watch debt-ceiling talks and economic data

    U.S. stocks sputter as investors watch debt-ceiling talks and economic data

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    U.S. stocks struggled for direction Monday as investors monitored efforts to resolve a U.S. debt-ceiling standoff ahead of a potential default, and weighed economic data that showed a sharp fall in New York state factory activity.

    How stocks are trading

    • The Dow Jones Industrial Average
      DJIA,
      -0.04%

      was marginally lower by 4 points at 33,297, after briefly turning higher.

    • The S&P 500
      SPX,
      +0.09%

      edged up 4 points, or 0.1%, at 4,128.

    • The Nasdaq Composite
      COMP,
      +0.41%

      rose 50 points, or 0.4%, to 12,335.

    The S&P 500 fell 0.3% last week, while the Dow dropped 1.1%. The S&P 500’s decline was cushioned by megacap tech-related stocks, which also helped lift the Nasdaq Composite out of a bear market. The Nasdaq gained 0.4% last week.

    In One Chart: The S&P 500 is top-heavy with tech. Here’s what that says about future stock-market returns.

    What’s driving markets

    Despite a generally well-received earnings season and signs that easing inflation may allow the Federal Reserve to halt its monetary-tightening cycle, stocks have been unable to break out of their recent range, as first banking-sector anxiety and lately worries about a technical government-debt default have restrained bulls.

    “Over the short-term, the stock market is stuck until we reach a debt-ceiling resolution and until we see more clarity from the regional banking sector, which are the two factors weighing on stocks right now,” said Brad Bernstein, managing director at UBS Wealth Management in Philadelphia, in a note. “Markets are anxious for a debt-ceiling solution and the markets are also hoping that the Fed pauses its rate hikes at the June meeting.”

    See: Why the stock market will struggle to rally until debt ceiling, bank woes are in rearview mirror

    A second round of debt-ceiling talks between the White House and congressional leaders appears set for Tuesday, according to President Joe Biden.

    “I remain optimistic because I’m a congenital optimist,” Biden told reporters Sunday in Rehoboth Beach, Del. “But I really think there’s a desire on their part as well as ours to reach an agreement. I think we’ll be able to do it.”

    House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., on Monday, however, said the White House and congressional Republicans remained far apart.

    Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, warned against complacency, noting that previous debt-ceiling deadlines have required significant market volatility to encourage politicians to reach agreement.

    “[W]e’ve continued to remind investors that since 2011, getting Congress to strike a deal has seemed to occur only after the stock market has thrown a temper tantrum,” said Calvasina in a note to clients.

    “In years where the drama in equity markets has otherwise been modest, the hits generally end up in the 5-6% area. In years in which debt ceiling drama has occurred in the context of other major problems in the market (i.e., 2011, 2015-2016, 2018), the hits have ranged from 10% to 19%,” she added.

    Read: Here’s where investors may turn to ‘hide’ as U.S. debt-ceiling deadline looms based on 2011 market reaction

    The New York Fed’s Empire State business-conditions index, a gauge of manufacturing activity in the state, plunged 42.6 points in May to negative 31.8, the regional Fed bank said Monday. Economists had expected a reading of negative 5, according to a survey by The Wall Street Journal. Any reading below zero indicates deteriorating conditions.

    The data underlined stagflation worries, said Edward Moya, a senior market analyst at Oanda, in a note.

    “It seems that after every economic reading, Wall Street has more reminders on how hard it will probably be to get inflation anywhere close to the Fed’s target. A recession seems like the only way pricing pressures will get closer to 3%,” Moya said.

    Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic on Monday said that he would like to see the central bank pause its cycle of rate hikes to gauge the health of the economy.

    “I think the appropriate policy is really to just wait and see how much the economy slows from the policy actions that we’ve done,” Bostic said in an interview on CNBC.

    Check out: Paul Tudor Jones says stocks likely to finish 2023 higher because Fed is done hiking rates

    Companies in focus

    Earnings Watch: Executives are less worried about inflation. Walmart and Target earnings could disagree

    — Jamie Chisholm contributed to this article.

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  • Newmont Strikes Gold With $17.5 Billion Takeover

    Newmont Strikes Gold With $17.5 Billion Takeover

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    Newmont


    has agreed to buy Australian gold and copper miner


    Newcrest


    for $17.5 billion in what would be the largest ever gold-mining deal.


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  • Fanatics to buy PointsBet’s U.S. sports-betting business for $150 million

    Fanatics to buy PointsBet’s U.S. sports-betting business for $150 million

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    Fanatics Inc. will buy the U.S. operations of Australia’s PointsBet for about $150 million, in the company’s largest foray yet into sports betting.

    PointsBet
    PBH,
    -18.70%

    announced the deal Sunday night, specifying that the acquisition only applies to PointsBet’s U.S. assets, not its businesses in Australia and Canada. CNBC first reported the deal. Fanatics did not immediately reply to MarketWatch’s request for comment Sunday night.

    PointsBet is an online sportsbook that launched in the U.S. in 2019, and operates in 15 states, including New Jersey, Iowa, Illinois and Colorado.

    “Despite the strategic success building a valuable asset in the U.S., the costs of operating in a state-by-state environment, together with the requirement to build significant scale to compete against well capitalized operators, led us to explore a number of options,” PointsBet Chief Executive Sam Swanell said in a statement. “The sale of the U.S. Business to Fanatics Betting and Gaming delivers the most attractive risk-adjusted value outcome for shareholders compared to the risks and benefits of other options including the status quo.”

    PointsBet shareholders are expected to vote on the sale at their annual meeting in late June.

    The deal should increase pressure on U.S. sports-gambling companies such as DraftKings Inc.
    DKNG,
    -1.96%

    and FanDuel. In late April, Fanatics launched sportsbook wagering for its customers in Ohio and Tennessee, and the Wall Street Journal reported at the time that the company pans to invest about $1 billion in its new sports-betting division.

    In an interview, Fanatics CEO Michael Rubin told the Journal he wants Fanatics to be the world’s top sports-betting company within the next 10 years, and expects its betting operations to be profitable by 2025 or 2026.

    In December, Florida-based Fanatics — which got its start in sports apparel and collectibles — closed a $700 million funding round, valuing it at about $31 billion, the Wall Street Journal reported. The privately held company is expected to eventually launch an IPO.

    Last year, Fanatics acquired trading-card company Topps.

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  • $14 Billion Deal to Create Mega-Pipeline Company

    $14 Billion Deal to Create Mega-Pipeline Company

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    $14 Billion Deal to Create Mega-Pipeline Company

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  • Walmart, Alibaba, Target, and More Stocks to Watch This Week

    Walmart, Alibaba, Target, and More Stocks to Watch This Week

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    Walmart, Alibaba, Target, and More Stocks to Watch This Week

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  • Eli Lilly nears J&J market cap

    Eli Lilly nears J&J market cap

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    Eli Lilly & Co.’s market cap neared Johnson & Johnson’s market cap on Friday, as the stock has benefited from a slew of positive data in trials for key treatments.

    Earlier Friday, Lilly stock
    LLY,
    +0.00%

    was on track to close with a greater market capitalization than J&J
    JNJ,
    -0.13%
    ,
    which would have marked the first time since 1997. Lilly stock ended flat, however, for the session at $434.43.

    The stock has been steadily rising since the release of positive data from a trial of a treatment for Alzheimer’s disease in early May, showing significant slowing of cognitive and function decline in patients with early symptomatic Alzheimer’s disease.

    Nearly half, or 7% of participants, had no clinical progression at one year, compared to 29% on placebo. The drug, called donanemab slowed clinical decline by 35% compared to a placebo and resulted in 40% less decline in the ability to perform activities of daily living, including managing finances, driving, engaging in hobbies and conversing about current events, the company said.

    The company is planning to proceed with global regulatory submissions as quickly as possible and expects to make a submission to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration this quarter.

    For more, see: Eli Lilly stock jumps 5% after Alzheimer’s treatment slows disease progression in major trial

    That’s not all. In April, Eli Lilly released data on its new obesity drug tirzepatide that showed patients in a trial losing up to 15.7% of their body weight, or about 34.4 pounds.

    More than 80% of people taking tirzepatide lost at least 5% of their body weight, the company said, compared with about 30% of those taking a placebo. 

    The degree of average weight reduction seen in the trial “has not been previously achieved” in similar Phase 3 trials, Dr. Jeff Emmick, senior vice president for product development at Lilly, said in a statement. 


    Source: FactSet, Dow Jones Market Data

    The company is planning regulatory submissions for that drug later this year. Tirzepatide was approved by the FDA last year as Mounjaro, a treatment for Type 2 diabetes.  

    Lilly has several other pipeline prospects, including lebrikizumab, a treatment for atopic dermatitis; mirikizumab for ulcerative colitis; empagliflozin, a treatment for chronic kidney disease; and pirtobrutinib for relapsed/refractory mantle cell lymphoma.

    Lilly’s stock is up about 20% in the year to date and up 50% in the past 12 months.

    Johnson & Johnson’s stock, meanwhile, has fallen 9% in the year to date and is down roughly the same over the past 12 months.

    The company swung to a first-quarter loss as it booked a multibillion-dollar charge to settle lawsuits stemming from its talc-containing powders.

    J&J booked a $6.9 billion one-time litigation charge relating to lawsuits filed by people alleging the company’s talc-containing powders caused cancers, asbestos poisoning and other illnesses. The company has offered to pay at least $8.9 billion to settle the suits, and remove an overhang on the stock.

    Read more: J&J’s proposal to settle talc lawsuits for $8.9 billion sends stock up the most in more than a year

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  • U.S. could run out of cash ‘at some point in the first two weeks of June,’ CBO says

    U.S. could run out of cash ‘at some point in the first two weeks of June,’ CBO says

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    The U.S. government faces a significant risk that it will no longer be able to pay all of its obligations “at some point in the first two weeks of June” if Congress doesn’t raise the federal borrowing limit, the Congressional Budget Office said Friday.

    The nonpartisan agency’s projection falls in line with a forecast that Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen made on May 1, as she said her department’s best estimate is that it could become unable to continue to satisfy all obligations “by early June, and potentially as early as June 1.”

    It also fits with an estimate released on Tuesday by a think tank, the Bipartisan Policy Center, which said the government is likely to have insufficient cash to meet all of its financial obligations as soon as early June.

    “The extent to which the Treasury will be able to fund the government’s ongoing operations will remain uncertain throughout May, even if the Treasury ultimately runs out of funds in early June,” the CBO said. “That uncertainty exists because the timing and amount of revenue collections and outlays over the intervening weeks could differ from CBO’s projections.”

    While a breakthrough hasn’t happened yet in Washington’s debt-ceiling standoff, there is increasing chatter about what could go into a bipartisan deal that ends the stalemate and avoids a market-shaking default.

    See: Debt-ceiling standoff: Here’s what could go into a bipartisan deal

    President Joe Biden and the four top U.S. lawmakers had planned to hold another meeting Friday on the debt limit after a parley on Tuesday, but it was postponed. A source familiar with the meetings called the delay a “positive” development, as staff work is continuing and Friday wasn’t yet the right time to re-convene Biden and the congressional leaders.

    The CBO also said Friday that the government could end up staying solvent through the end of July without a debt-limit hike.

    “If the Treasury’s cash and extraordinary measures are sufficient to finance the government until June 15, expected quarterly tax receipts and additional extraordinary measures will probably allow the government to continue financing operations through at least the end of July,” the agency said.

    But it warned that if the debt limit is not raised or suspended “before the Treasury’s cash and extraordinary measures are exhausted, the government will have to delay making payments for some activities, default on its debt obligations, or both.”

    “Those actions could result in distress in credit markets, disruptions in economic activity, and rapid increases in borrowing rates for the Treasury,” the agency said.

    U.S. stocks
    SPX,
    -0.16%

    DJIA,
    -0.03%

    were trading lower Friday.

    In addition, the CBO updated a budget forecast on Friday, saying its “current projections show a federal budget deficit of $1.5 trillion for 2023 — which is $0.1 trillion more than the agency estimated in February.”

    “The project cumulative deficit over the 2024–2033 period — $20.2 trillion — is about the same as the shortfall CBO projected in February,” the agency said.

    “Measured in relation to the size of the economy, deficits grow from 6.0 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) next year to 6.9 percent in 2033 — well above their 50-year average of 3.6 percent of GDP.”

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  • First Solar Stock Surges on Deal for European Solar Tech Firm

    First Solar Stock Surges on Deal for European Solar Tech Firm

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    First Solar


    stock rose sharply Friday as the company disclosed a deal it said would bolster its technological position in the solar energy space. 


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  • Elon Musk says he’s hired new CEO for Twitter; is it NBCUniversal’s Linda Yaccarino?

    Elon Musk says he’s hired new CEO for Twitter; is it NBCUniversal’s Linda Yaccarino?

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    Twitter Chief Executive Elon Musk says he’s found a new CEO to run Twitter and its parent company, X Corp., and “she” starts soon.

    “Excited to announce that I’ve hired a new CEO for X/Twitter. She will be starting in ~6 weeks!” Musk tweeted Thursday afternoon. “My role will transition to being exec chair & [chief technology officer], overseeing product, software & sysops.”

    Musk did not offer any clues as to the identity of Twitter’s incoming CEO, but late Thursday, the Wall Street Journal reported Linda Yaccarino, NBCUniversal’s head of advertising, was in talks to become the CEO.

    Yaccarino has worked at Comcast’s
    CMCSA,
    +1.28%

    NBCU for more than a decade, and has been an industry advocate in finding better ways to measure advertising’s effectiveness, according to the Journal.

    Yaccarino oversees global, national and local ad sales, partnerships, marketing, ad tech, data, measurement and strategic initiatives, according to her bio, which says she and her team have generated more than $100 billion in ad sales.

    “She knows metrics in advertising, and has played in different media,” Timothy Hubbard, assistant professor of management at the University of Notre Dame’s Mendoza College of Business, said in an interview. “I don’t know much about her, but she can balance Musk somewhat with her flexibility in advertising.”

    She and Musk appeared in a keynote conversation at a conference in Miami last month, according to Dateline, before NBCU and Twitter inked a major ad pact for the 2024 Olympics.

    Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said the move is good for the stock of Tesla Inc.
    TSLA,
    +2.10%
    ,
    where Musk is also CEO.

    “Musk stepping down as Twitter CEO sooner than thought is clearly good news overall for Tesla investors,” Ives said on Twitter. “Less time focused on Twitter platform and more time around Tesla SpaceX…balancing act too difficult and needed to make this move sooner rather than later.”

    In a note, Ives added: “With the tweet this afternoon, Musk’s reign as CEO of Twitter has finally come to an end and thus will be a positive for Tesla’s stock starting to finally remove this lingering albatross from the story,” and maintained Tesla’s outperform rating.

    Tesla shares advanced 1.6% in after-hours trading.

    After Musk acquired the social media giant for $44 billion, he posted a Twitter poll in December that asked if he should step down as CEO. A majority (57%) said yes, and he responded saying: “I will resign as CEO as soon as I find someone foolish enough to take the job! After that, I will just run the software & servers teams.”

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  • Elon Musk says he’s hired new CEO for Twitter; is it NBCUniversal’s Linda Yaccarino?

    Elon Musk says he’s hired new CEO for Twitter; is it NBCUniversal’s Linda Yaccarino?

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    Twitter Chief Executive Elon Musk says he’s found a new CEO to run Twitter and its parent company, X Corp., and “she” starts soon.

    “Excited to announce that I’ve hired a new CEO for X/Twitter. She will be starting in ~6 weeks!” Musk tweeted Thursday afternoon. “My role will transition to being exec chair & [chief technology officer], overseeing product, software & sysops.”

    Musk did not offer any clues as to the identity of Twitter’s incoming CEO, but late Thursday, the Wall Street Journal reported Linda Yaccarino, NBCUniversal’s head of advertising, was in talks to become the CEO.

    Yaccarino has worked at Comcast’s
    CMCSA,
    +1.28%

    NBCU for more than a decade, and has been an industry advocate in finding better ways to measure advertising’s effectiveness, according to the Journal.

    “She knows metrics in advertising, and has played in different media,” Timothy Hubbard, assistant professor of management at the University of Notre Dame’s Mendoza College of Business, said in an interview. “I don’t know much about her, but she can balance Musk somewhat with her flexibility in advertising.”

    Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said the move is good for the stock of Tesla Inc.
    TSLA,
    +2.10%
    ,
    where Musk is also CEO.

    “Musk stepping down as Twitter CEO sooner than thought is clearly good news overall for Tesla investors,” Ives said on Twitter. “Less time focused on Twitter platform and more time around Tesla SpaceX…balancing act too difficult and needed to make this move sooner rather than later.”

    In a note, Ives added: “With the tweet this afternoon, Musk’s reign as CEO of Twitter has finally come to an end and thus will be a positive for Tesla’s stock starting to finally remove this lingering albatross from the story,” and maintained Tesla’s outperform rating.

    In December, Musk posted a Twitter poll asking if he should step down as CEO. A majority said yes, and he responded saying: “I will resign as CEO as soon as I find someone foolish enough to take the job! After that, I will just run the software & servers teams.”

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  • Icahn stock renews skid as Hindenburg says latest company disclosure raises more questions about company debt, losses

    Icahn stock renews skid as Hindenburg says latest company disclosure raises more questions about company debt, losses

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    Icahn Enterprises LP’s stock was trading down 0.7% Thursday, after short seller Hindenburg Research intensified his bearish bet on Carl Icahn’s investing arm, and said he’s now taking aim at its bonds.

    Hindenburg, run by Nate Anderson, said the latest disclosures made Wednesday by IEP raised more questions about Icahn’s personal margin loans, or debt, from the company as well as portfolio losses at IEP. The short seller also said disclosures, intended to counter Hindenburg’s May 2 report, failed to address the issues raised.

    The original report raised questions about asset valuations and Icahn’s own borrowing from the company using his units as collateral.

    Hindenburg Research, which typically aims to profit from the decline in value of the shares of companies that it writes negative reports about, kicked off such a bet against Icahn Enterprise earlier this month but has now also set its sights on the company’s debt.

    For more, see: Icahn calls Hindenburg short-seller report self-serving, as market value of his company’s stock plunges by $4 billion

    “As noted in our earlier report, Icahn had not disclosed “basic metrics around his margin loans like loan to value (LTV), maintenance thresholds, principal amount, or interest rates.” This is still the case,” said Hindenburg.

    IEP has not said why Icahn had borrowed against his holdings. The company didn’t respond to a request for comment on Thursday’s report.

    On Wednesday, IEP disclosed a federal probe into its corporate governance and other issues. It is unclear if that investigation by the Southern District of New York is related to Hindenburg’s report and allegations, but the news put further pressure on the stock.

    The bonds, which have been more active than usual since the first report, took another leg down on Thursday, as the attached charts from market-data company BondCliQ show, as Hindenburg said it has taken a short position in them.

    The longest-dated bonds, the 4.375% notes that mature in February of 2029, were trading at around 75 cents on the dollar, as of midmorning.


    IEP corporate bond prices. Source: BondCliQ


    IEP bond volumes. Source: BondCliQ

    Icahn owns 84% of IEP shares and disclosed in a 2022 filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission that he had pledged more than 181 million units, or 60% of his holdings, for margin loans.

    On Wednesday, IEP
    IEP,
    -1.77%

    said that pledge had increased to 202 million units, which Hindenburg estimates was valued at $6.5 billion as of Wednesday’s close, based on his calculations.

    The battle between the iconic activist investor and the short seller has clobbered IEP’s stock, which has fallen 39% in the month to date at a cost of more than $6 billion of market cap.

    Also read: What we know about Carl Icahn’s margin loan

    IEP posted an unexpected loss on Wednesday of $270 million, or 75 cents per depositary unit, for the first quarter, after income of $323 million, or $1.06 a unit, in the year-earlier period. The FactSet consensus was for income of 19 cents.

    Revenue fell to $2.758 billion from $2.968 billion a year ago, ahead of the $2.559 billion FactSet consensus. Analysts on its conference call didn’t pose any question of executives who briefly outlined the quarterly numbers.

    The company on Wednesday also issued a rebuttal of the May 2 report from Hindenburg and said it would “take all appropriate steps to protect our unit holders and fight back.”

    Icahn acknowledged that the investment segment has underperformed in recent years, which he blamed on its bearish view of the market and large net short position, which it has now scaled back.

    IEP offers exposure to Icahn’s personal portfolio of public and private companies, including petroleum refineries, car-parts makers, food-packaging companies and real estate. Its unit holders are mostly individual investors, which means the market-cap loss prompted by the report has hurt those individual investors, said Icahn.

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  • What’s your retirement ‘number’? How to figure it out.

    What’s your retirement ‘number’? How to figure it out.

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    There’s a lot of numbers to weigh when it comes to retirement—but what’s your number? 

    Working Americans think they need $1.1 million to retire, according to the Schroders 2023 U.S. Retirement Survey, but how does each individual really figure out what they will need in a retirement that could last decades?

    “It is very difficult for someone at 35 to have any comprehension about what life at 65 will cost,” said Robert Gilliland, managing director and senior wealth adviser with Concenture Wealth Management. “You have no comprehension what $100 will buy in 30 years. It gets easier to imagine as you get closer to retirement but you need to start planning.”

    Read: What’s the magic number for retirement savings? Americans say it’s more than $1 million, but most will fall short of that goal.

    “We have people call us on a weekly basis to ask ‘do we have enough to retire?’ Yes, but it depends on what lifestyle you want,” Gilliland said. “We sit down with them, talk about the lifestyle they’re living now and the lifestyle they want to live if working was optional.”

    Start with a budget

    In the information gathering phase, you want to start with a budget. Look at your current expenses for everything from housing, food, utilities and transportation to extras like travel, gifts, and entertainment. You can keep a simple log or use more sophisticated budgeting software, but the key to the process is honesty, said John Leonard, vice president, client adviser with Spinnaker Trust. 

    “Be honest with yourself on what you really spend. It may surprise you,” Leonard said. “And think about your goals or what lifestyle do you want to live? Do you want to travel, move to a different state? What do you want your retirement to look like?”

    By retirement, you’ve likely paid down all or most of your debt and you’re no longer saving for retirement. So that will free up those funds. There will be some reduction in expenses, such as commuting costs or clothes costs associated with work, and you’ll likely be in a different tax situation with lower earnings, said Matt Fleming, wealth adviser executive with Vanguard.

    Plan for the long haul

    Plan for retirement to last several decades and base your budget around living to age 100.

    “You don’t want to plan for the average life expectancy. You want to plan conservatively and plan for expenses through age 100,” Fleming said. 

    Next, look at what potential sources of income you might have in retirement. That includes your 401(k), IRAs, pensions, savings and Social Security, plus any additional income streams such as rental properties, annuities or inheritance. Also, this is a good time to check on your insurance policies. To figure out your Social Security benefits, use the Social Security website at SSA.gov

    “Get to know your inflows and outflows,” said Fleming said.

    Vanguard estimates people should expect to have 75% to 85% of their preretirement income for retirement years, Fleming said.

    Another rule of thumb is the 4% rule, but that has evolved over time and may be lower now—as low as 2.5% to 3%, according to Gilliland. The original 4% benchmark suggested that a $1 million in savings and investments would allow you to spend an inflation-adjusted $40,000 each year in retirement with minimal odds of outliving your money. 

    Read: The 4% retirement spending rule may be too high. Could you get by on 1.9%?

    Social Security questions

    As far as whether to include Social Security in your planning, it depends on your age, experts said.

    “For those close to retirement, Social Security confidence is higher. For early accumulators just starting out in their retirement savings, we have little confidence Social Security will exist in a meaningful way,” Fleming said. “It’s better to overfund your plan than underfund.”

    Social Security’s combined trust funds will become depleted in 2034, with 80% of benefits payable at that time. The issue of how to “fix” Social Security has grabbed headlines in recent months with President Biden vowing to protect Social Security and Medicare and some politicians suggesting changes to the system. 

    Read: Social Security is now projected to be unable to pay full benefits a year earlier than expected

    “For those 45 and older, they will likely have Social Security. Generally, for those 35 and younger, we don’t talk about Social Security,” Gilliland said. “There will always be some form of Social Security. Politicians will want to be re-elected. Some form of Social Security will always be there—but how meaningful it will be, I don’t know.”

    Other factors to consider in budgeting include healthcare costs, travel expenses or helping with college tuition for grandchildren. 

    “People end up spending more in the first five to 10 years of retirement than they though they would—they’re active, traveling, involved with grandkids. They have an active lifestyle. Then spending goes down a bit until healthcare costs kick in,” Gilliland said 

    “People need to be aware and conscious of spending in this time,” Leonard said. “Put your expenses in buckets in terms of needs, wants and wishes.”

    Healthcare costs

    Weigh factors such as getting Medicare at 65, and the impact of long-term care costs and the estimated $315,000 the average couple is expected to spend on healthcare alone in retirement, according to Fidelity Investment’s 2022 report.

    Gilliland said to plan for healthcare costs to grow at about 7% a year. Family history and your own health should also shape how you budget for healthcare, he said. 

    For those who haven’t started saving for retirement—don’t wait. Start now, no matter how small. Eventually, work toward a goal of putting 12% to 15% of your pay toward retirement, said Fleming.

    “The earlier you start, the better. Stick to a plan and revisit it on an annual basis. Keep checking in and rein in your spending if you’re not on track,” Leonard said. “Be conservative and lean on the side of caution.”

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  • Social Security’s COLA could be 3.1% in 2024, and buying power has dropped 36% since 2000

    Social Security’s COLA could be 3.1% in 2024, and buying power has dropped 36% since 2000

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    The buying power of Social Security has dropped 36% since 2000, meaning that oldest adults who retired before 2000 would need more than $500 a month extra just to maintain the same level of buying power, according to a new study by the Senior Citizens League, a pro-senior think tank.

    The Senior Citizens League also said it expects the 2024 cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security to be 3.1%, compared with the 8.7% increase in 2023’s COLA. The organization said last month it expected COLA for 2024 to be less than 3%. 

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  • Disney to increase price of ad-free streaming again, add Hulu to Disney+ and remove some content

    Disney to increase price of ad-free streaming again, add Hulu to Disney+ and remove some content

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    Walt Disney Co. will increase the cost of ad-free Disney+ subscriptions this year while adding Hulu content to the Disney+ streaming service and removing some shows from streaming entirely, executives announced Wednesday.

    Disney
    DIS,
    -1.02%

    executives have been making changes to their streaming strategy in an attempt to lose less money from offering its content directly to consumers over the internet. The company launched an ad-supported version of Disney+ in the U.S. and other countries late last year, and increased the cost of its ad-free offering at the same time, while increasing costs of other services.

    “Pricing changes we’ve already implemented have proven successful, and we plan to set a higher price for our ad-free tier later this year to better reflect the value of our content offerings,” Chief Executive Robert Iger said in a conference call Wednesday related to Disney’s quarterly earnings. “As we look to the future, we will continue optimizing our pricing model to reward loyalty and reduce churn, to increase subscriber revenue for the premium ad-free tier, and drive growth of subscribers who offer the lower-cost ad supported option.”

    Full earnings coverage: Disney stock falls as Disney+ subscribers decline amid push to lose less money in streaming

    Iger returned as chief executive of Disney late last year, and has been overseeing the evaluation of Disney’s streaming strategy. One of the biggest question marks is Hulu, of which Disney now owns two-thirds, with the option to buy the remaining interest from Comcast Corp.
    CMCSA,
    +0.61%

    as early as January.

    Iger, though, has been rethinking the path for Hulu since returning. In an interview with CNBC earlier this year, he intimated that Disney could choose to sell the streaming service instead of buying the remaining interest. In his first big move with the service since returning, Iger said Wednesday that Hulu content would roll into Disney+ in the U.S. later this year.

    “As a significant step toward creating a growth business, I’m pleased to announce that we will soon begin offering a one-app experience domestically that incorporates our Hulu content via Disney+,” Iger said in the conference call. “While we will continue to offer Disney+, Hulu and ESPN+ as stand-alone options, this is a logical progression of our [direct-to-consumer] offerings that will provide greater opportunities for advertisers while giving bundle subscribers access to more robust and streamlined content, resulting in greater audience engagement and ultimately leading to a more unified streaming experience.”

    Iger later clarified that the two apps will be combined only for those who subscribe to both.

    “On the integrated app experience that we announced today, that’s more consumers that have subscribed to both services for now,” he said. “So in other words, it’s taking what we call the dual bundle and putting it together in one experience, which is obviously good for consumers. Why have to close out one app and open another one?”

    For more: Disney is undergoing a ‘drastic evolution’ in streaming, and more changes could be afoot

    After a wave of new streaming services appeared in recent years to compete with Netflix Inc.
    NFLX,
    +0.99%
    ,
    media companies are looking to combine some of their offerings as consumers deal with a web of potential subscriptions. Paramount Global
    PARA,
    -4.11%

    plans to combine its Paramount+ and Showtime streaming services, and Warner Bros. Discovery
    WBD,
    -2.76%

    is planning to combine HBO Max with Discovery+ while renaming the service Max.

    When an analyst on Wednesday’s call suggested that Disney’s move revealed that Iger had decided to purchase the rest of Hulu, Iger responded by saying “it’s not really been fully determined what will happen in that regard.”

    “Where we are headed is for one experience that would have general entertainment and Disney+ content together for the reasons that I just described,” Iger said. “How that ultimately unfolds is to some extent in the hands of Comcast and in the hands of basically a conversation or a negotiation that we have with them. I don’t want to be in any way predictive in terms of when or how that ends up.”

    While adding Hulu content to Disney+, Disney will also remove some content from its streaming services, which will allow the company to save money that would be paid out as residuals for airing the content. Warner Bros. Discovery made similar moves as it looked to cut costs for its HBO Max streaming service last year.

    “We will be removing certain content from our streaming platforms, and currently expect to take an impairment charge of approximately $1.5 billion to $1.8 billion,” Chief Financial Officer Christine McCarthy said in the conference call, without elaborating further.

    For more: As streaming services cut costs, TV shows — and residuals — vanish

    Iger did elaborate on his vision for streaming in his second earnings report since returning to the company, laying out his general thoughts about the path forward for Disney’s streaming portfolio — which also includes ESPN+ and a version of Disney+ in India and other parts of Asia refereed to as Disney+Hotstar.

    “First, it’s critical we rationalize the volume of content we’re creating, and what we’re spending to produce our content. Second, our legacy platforms enable us to expand our audiences and often augment our potential streaming success while at the same time, allowing us to amortize our content costs across multiple windows,” he said. “We also need to strike the right balance between our local and global programming, as well as our platform and program marketing. Finally, we must continue calibrating our investments in specific markets.”

    Disney shares declined in after-hours trading Wednesday following the release of quarterly results, which showed a sequential decline in Disney+ subscribers. The stock has gained 16.4% so far this year, as the S&P 500 index
    SPX,
    +0.45%

    has gained 7.3%.

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  • Disney stock falls as Disney+ subscribers decline amid push to lose less money in streaming

    Disney stock falls as Disney+ subscribers decline amid push to lose less money in streaming

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    Walt Disney Co. shares declined in after-hours trading Wednesday following an earnings report that showed Disney+ subscribers declining in recent months, as executives seek to cut losses in the streaming business.

    Disney DIS reported fiscal second-quarter net earnings of $1.27 billion, or 69 cents a share. After adjusting for restructuring costs and other effects, Disney reported earnings of 93 cents a share, down from $1.08 a share a year ago. Revenue grew to $21.82 billion from $20.27 billion a year ago.

    Analysts…

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  • Rivian’s Earnings Fell Short. The Stock Is Rising.

    Rivian’s Earnings Fell Short. The Stock Is Rising.

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    Rivian’s Earnings Fell Short. The Stock Is Rising.

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  • Biden describes debt-ceiling meeting as ‘productive,’ but McCarthy says he ‘didn’t see any new movement’

    Biden describes debt-ceiling meeting as ‘productive,’ but McCarthy says he ‘didn’t see any new movement’

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    House Speaker Kevin McCarthy on Tuesday said he “didn’t see any new movement” toward ending Washington’s standoff over the debt ceiling, as he assessed how a much-anticipated meeting on the issue went.

    President Joe Biden hosted the meeting at the White House with the country’s four top lawmakers, and beforehand analysts had predicted it would not result in a deal.

    McCarthy…

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  • Airbnb stock falls sharply on cautious forecast and as record bookings miss estimates

    Airbnb stock falls sharply on cautious forecast and as record bookings miss estimates

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    Nights booked on Airbnb Inc. hit a record high in the first quarter as more guests traveled overseas and returned to cities, leading to the company’s first profitable start to the year on record, executives announced Tuesday.

    But executives’ forecast was less bullish, even though they expect a strong summer travel season and second-quarter revenue growth. They cautioned that growth in nights and experiences booked will be “unfavorable” compared with the year-ago quarter, when there was a surge in travel demand as fears about…

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