Atmus Filtration Technologies Inc.’s stock soared 14% Friday in its trading debut, after the Cummins Inc. spinoff priced its initial public offering in the middle of its proposed price range.
The Nashville, Tenn.-based company sold 14.1 million shares priced at $19.50 each to raise $275 million. With 83.3 million shares to be outstanding after the deal, the company’s valuation is $1.6 billion.
The stock ATMU, +11.90%
is trading on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker ATMU. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase were lead book-running managers on the deal, with 10 other banks acting as co-managers.
Although the company is issuing primary shares, Atmus will not receive any of the IPO proceeds; all of the proceeds will go to debt-for-equity exchange parties, namely underwriters Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, and will indirectly pay down parent Cummins’ CMI, +1.03%
debt, according to the filing documents.
Atmus makes products for on-highway commercial vehicles and off-highway agriculture, construction, mining and power-generation vehicles and equipment, mostly under the Fleetguard brand. The company had pro forma net income of $34.9 million in the first quarter on sales of $418.6 million.
About 16% of its 2022 sales went to original-equipment manufacturers, where its filters are used for new vehicles and equipment, and about 84% were aftermarket sales.
The company was created by Cummins, a maker of diesel and natural-gas engines, in 1958.
The IPO comes in a thin year for deals. There have been just 44 IPOs this year to raise $7.3 billion in proceeds, according to Renaissance Capital, a provider of IPO exchange-traded funds and institutional research.
That’s up 29.4% from the same period in 2022, when deal flow slowed to its lightest in decades.
“Deal flow started at a decent pace but failed to pick back up after the February lull, as hawkish signals from the Fed, renewed recession fears, and turmoil within the banking industry caused a spike in volatility,” Renaissance wrote in April commentary.
The biggest deal of the year to date was that of Kenvue Inc. KVUE, -0.11%,
a spinoff from Johnson & Johnson JNJ, +0.14%,
which is parent to a number of household brands, including Tylenol, Band-Aid, Listerine and Benadryl.
Icahn Enterprises LP’s stock IEP, +0.10%
fell another 3% Friday to extend its month-to-date losses to 61%. The stock has been under pressure since a May 2 report by short-selling firm Hindenburg Research that accused Icahn’s publicly traded investment vehicl eof inflating asset values and causing his company to trade at a large premium. The report from May 2 has cost IEP more than $10.9 billion in lost market cap. The stock took another downturn on Thursday, after Bill Ackman, founder and chief executive of Pershing Square Capital Management, weighed in on the Hindenburg report with some thoughts of his own, that revived a longstanding fued between the two billionaires. Ackman taunted his rival by reiterating Icahn’s oft-quoted Wall Street saying that if you need a friend, get a dog. “Over his storied career, Icahn has made many enemies. I don’t know that he has any real friends. He could use one here,” Ackman wrote in a lengthy tweet. IEP shares are down 38.5% this week alone.
A national obsession with a new class of weight-loss drugs is turning dangerous, doctors and researchers say, as many patients are inappropriately prescribed Wegovy, Ozempic and similar medications and supply shortages generate a market for unauthorized, potentially risky copycat versions of these drugs.
Social media buzz about the drugs has promoted the mistaken perception that the medications are appropriate for a broad swath of people who may want to shed a few pounds–with disastrous consequences for some patients, doctors say. Patients who previously recovered from eating disorders, for example, are coming in for treatment because they “have had their eating disorder reactivated by use of these medications,” said Dr. Elizabeth Wassenaar, a regional medical director at the Eating Recovery Center, which specializes in treating the disorders. Some patients have wound up in the hospital, she said, and in some cases the providers who prescribed the drugs were unaware of the patients’ eating-disorder history. “It’s a real warning to people who prescribe these medications that it’s not without risk,” she said.
Some doctors also question whether the safety of the drugs has been adequately studied in older adults, who may have an undesirable loss of lean muscle mass when taking the medications. That complicates an ongoing debate about whether Medicare should cover these drugs for weight loss.
And patients of all types are put at risk, experts say, by the illegal production of knock-off versions of the medications. The Food and Drug Administration and several state pharmacy boards in recent weeks have warned that some compounding pharmacies are producing unauthorized versions of the drugs–which poses particular safety concerns for injectable drugs such as Wegovy, said David Margraf, a pharmaceutical research scientist with the Resilient Drug Supply Project at the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy. “It’s not just a victimless crime,” he said. “People can be severely injured.”
Novo Nordisk NVO, +0.33%,
the maker of Wegovy and Ozempic, itself sought to tap the brakes on the craze around these drugs in a statement posted on its website this month, saying it’s concerned about reports of the drugs being used “for purely cosmetic or aesthetic weight loss,” unauthorized versions of the drugs hitting the market, and “insufficient clinical evaluations by some telehealth providers” promoting the drugs.
Drugs such as Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy, Ozempic and Rybelsus and Eli Lilly’s LLY, -0.36%
Mounjaro mimic the effects of a gut hormone known as GLP-1, which can help control blood-sugar levels and reduce appetite. (Mounjaro also affects another hormone called GIP.) Ozempic, Rybelsus and Mounjaro are FDA-approved for treatment of type 2 diabetes, while Wegovy is approved for people with obesity and certain people with excess weight combined with weight-related medical problems.
Billions of dollars in drug sales hinge on the breadth of the patient population prescribed these medications. Last year, more than 5 million prescriptions for Ozempic, Mounjaro, Rybelsus or Wegovy were written for weight management, up from just 230,000 in 2019, according to data and analytics firm Komodo Health. Obesity drugs could be a $54 billion market by 2030, up from $2.4 billion in 2022, Morgan Stanley said in a report last year. Reports of GLP-1 drug users seeing improvements in addictive behaviors such as smoking and drinking have lately amplified interest in the medications.
The drugs have become such a cultural phenomenon that Walmart during its quarterly earnings call last week blamed the medications for a shift in consumer-spending patterns that pressured its margins. In the first quarter, the company saw “a shift to health and wellness,” John Rainey, Walmart Inc.’s WMT, +0.18%
executive vice president and chief financial officer, said on the call with analysts. “And part of that is related to these GLP-1 drugs that are to treat diabetes,” he said, adding that the shift “comes at a lower margin, and so that has some impact on our business as well.”
Noom, a digital health company that for years has emphasized a behavioral approach to weight management, this week announced a new program that will make Ozempic, Wegovy, Mounjaro and other medications available to eligible patients. “Prescriptions are not the goal of our program. They’re very much an adjunct,” Dr. Linda Anegawa, Noom’s chief of medicine, told MarketWatch. Medical professionals will review patients’ entire health history, order labs to assess their metabolic health, and engage in video visits with patients as they determine what treatments might be appropriate, she said.
Telling your brain you’re not hungry
The reason GLP-1 drugs help control weight is pretty straightforward, said Dr. Daniel Drucker, who helped discover GLP-1 and is senior scientist at Lunenfeld-Tanenbaum Research Institute in Toronto. When people take these drugs, he said, they simply eat less because they feel more full. “GLP-1 will tell your brain that you’re not hungry,” he said, and people taking these medications may feel less stressed about food or find themselves thinking less about food. And the effects may go beyond eating, he said, as some people also see improvements in smoking, drinking, and other addictive or compulsive behaviors. “These are really interesting areas for further investigation,” he said. Drucker has been a consultant or speaker for Novo Nordisk, Pfizer PFE, -0.61%
and other pharmaceutical companies.
Novo Nordisk said in a statement to MarketWatch that it is not conducting any dedicated clinical studies to evaluate Ozempic, Rybelsus or Wegovy in patients with substance-use disorders or addiction-related illnesses, and Eli Lilly said it does not have any studies planned for investigating tirzepatide–the active ingredient in Mounjaro–for treatment of addiction.
Adolescents’ use of the drugs for weight loss is a particular concern for some doctors. Wegovy is approved for treatment of obesity in children 12 and older. “The adolescent mental health crisis is unprecedented,” said Wassenaar, with many teens suffering severe mood disorders, eating disorders, and suicidality, and teens struggling with depression may think, “if I lose weight, I’ll feel better and people will like me. There’s this magic drug, and all I have to do is inject it.” And if patients can start taking these drugs as early as 12 years of age, “we just don’t know what that’s going to do to them in 10 or 20 years,” she said, because there’s not enough long-term data.
Novo Nordisk said in a statement to MarketWatch that “teenage obesity is linked to weight-related health problems such as high blood pressure, high cholesterol and type 2 diabetes,” and that cutting calories and increasing physical activity may not be enough for some patients. “The decision to prescribe an anti-obesity medication is at the discretion of the physician and the patient/parents,” the company said.
Eli Lilly said that tirzepatide is not currently being studied for chronic weight management in children or adolescents.
Many patients may have trouble filling lower-dose Wegovy prescriptions through September, according to drugmaker Novo Nordisk.
Novo Nordisk via AP
Some doctors are also concerned about broad use of the drugs among older adults. Many older adults have sarcopenia, an age-related loss of muscle mass and strength that can contribute to frailty and fall risk later in life–and losing weight can mean an additional loss of muscle mass that may not be advisable for some patients, doctors and researchers say.
While “there’s a huge push to get Medicare to cover these drugs, it’s not really certain whether they would be helpful in this population or actually more harmful,” said Judy Butler, a research fellow at PharmedOut, a research and education project at Georgetown University Medical Center. Noom is not enrolling patients over age 60 in its new program, Anegawa said, partly because “we really don’t have enough data yet with many of these drugs in the geriatric population.”
In the pivotal clinical trials for Wegovy, 9% of the Wegovy-treated patients were between 65 and 75 years of age, and 1% were 75 and older, Novo Nordisk said in a statement. “No overall differences in safety or effectiveness have been observed between patients 65 years of age and older and younger adult patients,” the company said. In an ongoing cardiovascular outcomes trial, about 38% of patients are 65 or older, the company said.
By law, Medicare generally does not cover drugs prescribed for weight loss–although some drugmakers and industry groups are pushing to change that. Some of the drugs now generating intense demand also come with a hefty sticker price: Wegovy, for example, has an estimated annual net cost of about $13,600, according to the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review. If Medicare coverage rules changed and 10% of beneficiaries with obesity used Wegovy, total annual Medicare Part D spending on the drug could be as much as $26.8 billion, according to a recent study published in the New England Journal of Medicine. That’s more than 18% of the net total Part D spending by beneficiaries and the Medicare program in 2019.
Dangerous copycats
There are potential physical as well as financial costs. Side effects of the drugs can range from nausea and vomiting to gallbladder problems, inflammation of the pancreas, and thyroid cancer.
More broadly, some doctors question the prescribing of drugs solely based on obesity, absent other risk factors. “If somebody is obese and has diabetes, high blood pressure, and high cholesterol, losing weight may improve those parameters, but obesity on its own does not need to be treated,” said Dr. Adriane Fugh-Berman, a professor at Georgetown University Medical Center and director of PharmedOut. “It’s cardiovascular fitness that is important, no matter what weight you are,” she said. “We should stop focusing on the weight itself as a risk factor.”
Dr. Robert Gabbay, chief science and medical officer at the American Diabetes Association, counters that “obesity is a disease, and therefore needs to be treated as such.” Although there are people with obesity who don’t have other serious conditions, he said, “that’s relatively uncommon.”
Despite the concerns, shortages of the drugs persist. Novo Nordisk says it anticipates that many patients will have trouble filling lower-dose Wegovy prescriptions through September.
For patients who are relying on GLP-1 drugs for treatment of diabetes, even a short-term interruption in access to the drugs can cause blood-glucose levels to rise and result in serious complications, Gabbay said. Patients also tend to gradually ramp up dosage of these drugs to get to the effective dose, he said, and if they lose access to the medication “they might have to start back at the beginning again,” putting them several months behind on their treatment.
The shortages can also create risks for a broader set of patients, experts say, as they spur demand for copycat versions of the drugs. The approved active ingredient in Wegovy and Ozempic is semaglutide in its base form, but some compounding pharmacies may be using salt forms of semaglutide, the FDA said in a late April letter to the National Association of Boards of Pharmacy. “We are not aware of any basis for compounding a drug using these semaglutide salts that would meet federal law requirements” restricting the types of active ingredients used in compounding, the FDA said in the letter. Boards of pharmacy in several states, including West Virginia, North Carolina and Mississippi, have also recently issued warnings about compounded semaglutide.
Novo Nordisk said in the statement posted on its website this month that it is “actively monitoring and taking action against” entities unlawfully selling compounded semaglutide, adding that no FDA-approved generic versions of semaglutide currently exist.
Unauthorized compounded versions of the drugs could raise serious concerns about sterility and other quality-control issues, the Resilient Drug Supply Project’s Margraf said. “If this drug is in high demand and there isn’t enough supply, people will find a way to get it from a gray-market source,” he said. “People are going to find ways around the laws and potentially harm patients.”
The numbers: The trade deficit in goods shot up 17% in April to a six-month high of $96.8 billion, reflecting a rebound in imports and a broad decline in American exports.
The trade gap in goods rose from $82.7 billion in March, the Census Bureau said.
Larger deficits subtract from gross domestic product, the official scorecard for the economy.
An advanced estimate of wholesale inventories, meanwhile, showed a 0.2% decline in April. Retail inventories rose 0.2% in the month, according to an early estimate.
Higher inventories add to GDP, but the mixed results suggest little impact.
Key details: Exports dropped 5.5% to $163.3 billion. U.S. companies shipped fewer cars, food, consumer goods, oil and other industrial supplies.
Imports of goods rose 1.8% to $260 billion in April, mostly because of higher oil prices and strong demand among consumers for new cars and trucks.
Big picture: The rebound in imports suggests more capacity for consumers to spend. Car sales this year have been particularly strong as more models become available and dealers offer more discounts.
Auto sales fell last year to the lowest level in 11 years owing to a shortage of vehicles and record prices.
The slowdown in inventory growth, however, indicates businesses are unsure about future demand. They are hedging their bets and don’t want to get caught with excess inventory like they did last year.
Market reaction: The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +1.00%
and S&P 500 SPX, +1.30%
rose in Friday trades.
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Chip stocks experienced a significant surge Thursday in the wake of Nvidia Corp.’s upbeat commentary on AI-fueled demand — with one notable exception.
Shares of Intel Corp. INTC, -5.52%
were down more than 5% in afternoon trading Thursday, leading Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.11%
laggards by a wide margin, on a day when Nvidia Corp.’s NVDA, +24.37%
stock was up 26% and the PHLX Semiconductor Index SOX, +6.81%
was ahead 6%.
Nvidia delivered a stratospheric beat on its quarterly revenue outlook Wednesday afternoon, with executives discussing how spending on artificial intelligence is already starting to drive sizable financial benefits for the company. That discussion has Wall Street thinking that many other chip makers will also be able to capitalize on the same wave of interest in the hot technology — shares of Monolithic Power Systems Inc. MPWR, +17.46%,
Advanced Micro Devices Inc. AMD, +11.16%
and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. 2330, +3.43%
TSM, +12.00%
all joined Nvidia in gaining by double-digit percentages in Thursday’s session.
Intel, though, was a key outlier. Nvidia’s commentary seemed to make investors more worried that Intel is behind the curve on what some see as a massive technological revolution.
Intel’s revenue and profits from central processing units look “even more at risk” after Nvidia’s report, while Intel doesn’t have “any real” competitive position in graphics processing units or generative-AI compute, wrote Mizuho’s Jordan Klein, a desk-based analyst associated with the company’s sales team and not its research arm.
Nvidia’s earnings call “will reinforce the negative view that [Intel] and all their CPU share is a major loser and share donor to GPU, ASICs and lower power ARM design chips on the way,” Klein added.
While Nvidia GPUs typically would run alongside CPUs from either Intel or AMD, Nvidia has been making inroads in CPUs. Chief Financial Officer Colette Kress said on Nvidia’s call that the company has seen “growing momentum for Grace with both CPU-only and CPU-GPU opportunities across AI and cloud and supercomputing applications.”
Nvidia is perceived to be ahead of the pack in AI-related computing technology, but AMD is at least in a better position than Intel, with more of a one-stop shop across CPUs and GPUs. That’s likely why AMD’s stock is riding on Nvidia’s coattails Thursday, up more than 10% in afternoon action.
AMD is “the only other real GPU supplier,” Klein wrote, though the company “could lose CPU spend in process and [has] a far way to go to catch [Nvidia].”
In his view, it “will take some time for more advanced and higher performance GPU and software platform to ramp and really drive upside potential” at AMD. “But seeing how fast and much [Nvidia] benefited, few will want to wait and see how long that takes for AMD.”
A more clear beneficiary, he noted, is Taiwan Semiconductor, whose stock was up more than 12% Thursday. You “cannot get any of these GPUs, inference, etc. without their fabs,” according to Klein.
As for Intel, Klein likes that the company is approaching a second-quarter bottom and positioned to capitalize on a personal-computer refresh, but he said its stock “feels totally stuck at best and could get shorted.”
Illumina Inc. ILMN, -9.08%
shareholders voted Thursday to elect one of activist investor Carl Icahn’s nominees to its board, and voted against the re-election of company Chairman John Thompson, according to media reports on Thursday. The genomics company has been engaged in a proxy battle with Icahn since March, who was seeking to unseat its chairman and chief executive and add three of his own candidates to the board. Illumina had blasted back that Icahn’s board nominees were “unqualified,” urging shareholders to reject all three and instead support its “highly qualified” nominees. Icahn had said that Chief Executive Francis de Souza and other “protectors” seem “dead set on destroying the company.” Illumina had defended its own track record. “Illumina is the only pure-play genomics company with profitable revenue growth,” it said in an early May statement. Icahn started the proxy fight with Illumina in March, criticizing the company’s plan to buy cancer-screening company Grail Inc. But Icahn himself is in a weakened position, under fire from a recent report from short seller Hindenburg Research accusing the firm of inflating asset values and causing his company to trade at a large premium. The report has cost IEP $10.9 billion in lost market cap since it was published on May 2. Last week, the storied investor admitted he was wrong to take a huge short position that led to losses of $9 billion. And earlier this month, IEP disclosed a federal probe into its corporate governance and other issues. It’s not clear if that was related to the Hindenburg report.
“‘Icahn’s favorite Wall Street saying: “If you want a friend, get a dog.” Over his storied career, Icahn has made many enemies. I don’t know that he has any real friends. He could use one here.’”
— Bill Ackman, Pershing Square Capital Management
That was billionaire hedge-fund manager Bill Ackman, founder and chief executive of Pershing Square Capital Management, resurrecting his longstanding feud with billionaire activist investor Carl Icahn in a tweet Wednesday.
Ackman was referencing the fallout from the recent report by short-selling firm Hindenburg Research that accused Icahn’s publicly traded investment vehicle, Icahn Enterprise Partners LP IEP, -13.83%,
of inflating asset values and causing his company to trade at a large premium. The report from May 2 has cost IEP about $10.9 billion in lost market cap, after the stock tumbled another 21% on Thursday.
Ackman said he is neither long or short IEP but merely “watching from a distance.”
But he seemed to agree with Hindenburg’s founder and CEO, Nate Anderson, who questioned margin loans extended to Icahn using his roughly 85% stake in IEP as collateral. Icahn has not disclosed the terms of those loans although he recently told the Financial Times that he used the money to make additional investments outside of his publicly traded vehicle.
“Over the years I have made a great deal of money with money,” he was quoted as having said. “I like to have a war chest, and doing that gave me more of a war chest.”
Ackman said the margin lender or lenders “must be extremely concerned with the situation,” particularly after IEP has disclosed a federal investigation of its business and corporate governance.
For his part, Icahn has called Hindenburg’s analysis “misleading and self-serving” and said it was designed solely to hurt long-term IEP shareholders.
Ackman compared the situation to that of failed investment fund Archegos, “where the swap counterparties were comforted by each having relatively smaller exposures to the situation.”
“The problem is that multiple lenders make for a more chaotic situation. All it takes is for one lender to break ranks and liquidate shares or attempt to hedge, before the house comes falling down. Here, the patsy is the last lender to liquidate.”
Ackman also expressed his surprise that Icahn has not disclosed the margin-loan terms, or even said who provided them. “My understanding of 13D SEC rules is that they require disclosure of sources of financing and even copies of financing agreements, although many investors ignore these requirements.”
Ackman also questioned how IEP’s large dividend yield is feasible, as it’s not supported by operating cash flows.
“The yield is generated by returning capital to outside shareholders, which is in turn funded by the company selling stock to investors,” said Ackman.
Icahn’s problem now is that his system has been outed by the short seller, Ackman wrote.
“Transparency is not the friend of $IEP having caused a more than 50% decline in the shares, which has caused Icahn to post more shares, now more than 65% of his holdings,” he said in the tweet.
The bad blood between Icahn and Ackman goes back to a business dispute the two had over a 2003 deal involving Hallwood Realty. The litigation between them went on for years.
But their animosity for one another hit a crescendo in 2013, when Bill Ackman publicly waged a $1 billion short-selling campaign against Herbalife. Sensing weakness, Icahn took a long position in Herbalife’s stock HLF, -5.21%
and helped deal Ackman significant losses on his bet over time.
The two claimed they had made up in 2014, sharing a stage at a conference broadcast by CNBC.
Ackman had previously had taken a soft shot at Icahn over the Hindenburg report, saying there was a “karmic quality” to it. But now their battle of Wall Street titans appears to be back in full force.
U.S. stock futures were mixed Thursday as Nvidia results boosted tech but debt ceiling concerns weighed on the Dow.
How are stock-index futures trading
S&P 500 futures ES00, +0.67%
rose 21 points, or 0.5%, to 4147
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures YM00, -0.14%
fell 107 points, or 0.3%, to 32747
Nasdaq 100 futures NQ00, +1.83%
jumped 225 points, or 1.6%, to 13875
On Wednesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.77%
fell 256 points, or 0.77%, to 32800, the S&P 500 SPX, -0.73%
declined 30 points, or 0.73%, to 4115, and the Nasdaq Composite COMP, -0.61%
dropped 76 points, or 0.61%, to 12484.
What’s driving markets
Recurring fiscal concerns are battling with a nascent technological paradigm for the market’s lead. Fears about the looming debt-ceiling deadline is counteracted by ebullience over AI to deliver a stark bifurcation.
Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average — a gauge arguably currently more sensitive to broader economic conditions — were under pressure early Thursday, while futures for the tech-rich Nasdaq 100 — powered by optimism over a secular AI shift — surged strongly.
“The prospect of the U.S. government being unable to meet its financial obligations continues to be a key influence on investor sentiment in global equity markets,” said Derren Nathan, head of equity research at Hargreaves Lansdown.
Ructions at the short end of the Treasury market — where some 1-month bill yields TMUBMUSD01Y, 5.174%
broke above 7% — illustrate trader anxiety that unless Congress can reach an agreement to extend the debt-ceiling the U.S. government may technically default at the beginning of June.
Ratings agency Fitch late Wednesday said it was placing Washington’s AAA credit rating on watch for a possible downgrade given what it termed the debt ceiling “brinkmanship”.
However, results and comments from chipmaker Nvidia NVDA, -0.49%,
whose stock is soaring 25% in premarket action, have boosted hopes that AI will deliver the next period of strong growth for a number of tech companies.
“The AI revolution may be making a lot of noise but results from microchip firm Nvidia hint at some substance behind the hype,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.
CS.ai Inc. AI, +2.54%
and Advanced Micro Devices AMD, +0.14%
were among those bathing in Nvidia’s AI glow early Thursday.
The optimism over semiconductors bade well for the wider tech sector, according to Mark Newton, head of technical strategy at Fundstrat: “Semis in relative terms to broader technology, have the potential to break back out to new all-time highs this week on a ratio basis. That would be important and positive for this leading sector to show such strength.”
U.S. economic updates set for release on Thursday include the weekly initial jobless claims data and the second reading of first quarter GDP, both at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Pending home sales for April will be published at 10 a.m..
Fed officials making comments include Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin speaking at 9:50 a.m. and Boston Fed President Susan Collins talking at 10:30 a.m.
Cineworld Group said Thursday that its proposed restructuring has the backing of lenders controlling almost all of its legacy credit lines and most of the outstanding debt under its debtor-in-possession facility.
The London-based cinema company–which owns Regal Cinemas–said more lenders under its term loans due in 2025 and 2026 and revolving credit line due this year, have agreed to amended and restated versions of the restructuring support agreement and the backstop commitment agreement, first filed in early April in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court.
Now, the proposed restructuring has support of those holding and controlling 99% of the legacy credit lines and at least 69% of the outstanding indebtedness under the debtor-in-possession facility, the company said.
The proposed restructuring is expected to reduce indebtedness by around $4.53 billion, raise $800 million and provide $1.46 billion in new debt financing, the company said on April 3. The proposed restructuring doesn’t provide for any recovery for holders of Cineworld’s existing equity interests.
Cineworld now expects to emerge from Chapter 11 bankruptcy in July. During the restructuring, the company has continued to operate its business and cinemas as usual, it said.
Cineworld entered into Chapter 11 in September, with around $1.94 billion of debt, and had been in talks with stakeholders since then to develop a reorganization plan to maximize value. The company’s shares fell in late February after it said it had received a number of proposals from potential parties to buy some or all of its business, but none involve an all-cash bid for the entire company, leaving shareholders empty handed
During its bankruptcy process, AMC Entertainment held discussions regarding a potential strategic acquisition of theaters and talks about reviving a previously scrapped merger with Cineplex were also held
In early April, Cineworld said it had entered a restructuring support agreement and a backstop commitment agreement with some lenders. At the same time, Cineworld said the marketing process in the U.S., the U.K. and Ireland will be terminated. Proposals for the rest of the world business–outside of the U.S., the U.K. and Ireland–continued to be considered, it said.
Nvidia Corp. headed toward market-capitalization gains of nearly $200 billion in after-hours trading Wednesday, which could put the chip maker within sight of becoming only the seventh U.S. company to top a valuation of $1 trillion.
Nvidia ended Wednesday’s session with a market cap — the total value of all shares in existence — of roughly $754.3 billion, according to FactSet. A 25% increase would add nearly $189 billion to that total, putting the company within striking distance of $1 trillion. Only six U.S. companies have ever attained a $1 trillion market cap: Apple Inc. AAPL, +0.16%
and Microsoft Corp. MSFT, -0.45%
are currently worth more than $2 trillion apiece; Google parent Alphabet Inc. GOOGL, -1.35%
and Amazon.com Inc. AMZN, +1.53%
have valuation of more than $1 trillion; and Facebook parent Meta Platforms Inc. META, +1.00%
and Tesla Inc. TSLA, -1.54%
have both touched the $1 trillion plateau previously.
Nvidia’s market cap was ahead of both Meta and Tesla as of Wednesday’s close, with both worth less than $650 billion, showing the potential fleeting nature of such a valuation. Nvidia’s record market cap is $834.4 billion, established on Nov. 29. 2021, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
If Nvidia’s gains hold through Thursday’s trading session, the company could challenge for the largest one-day market-cap gain in history. The biggest currently on record was Amazon’s $191.2 billion increase on Feb. 4, 2022, according to Dow Jones Market Data, followed closely by a $190.9 billion gain by Apple on Nov. 10, 2022. Nvidia also stands to gain more than rival Advanced Micro Devices Inc. AMD, +0.14%
is worth in total — AMD ended Wednesday’s session with a market cap of $174.4 billion.
Nvidia is closing in on the rare $1 trillion plateau because of huge gains in its stock this year, as hopes and hype about generative AI have flooded the tech sector. After OpenAI debuted its ChatGPT AI offering, and investor Microsoft quickly integrated the chatbot into many of its services, expectations for the technology have exploded.
Despite the hype, most companies have avoided providing hard figures for revenue gains expected from AI. Nvidia’s fiscal second-quarter forecast — which calls for roughly $11 billion in sales, nearly 33% higher than Nvidia’s previous quarterly record of $8.28 billion — could be seen as the first sign of a wave of fresh spending coursing through the tech sector.
Other companies have indicated that they will be forced to spend to develop their technology before reaping large financial rewards from it. Microsoft, for example, disclosed to investors last month that capital expenditures are increasing as it builds AI capabilities into its Azure cloud-computing platform — spending that is largely going toward Nvidia.
That is a rather typical path for large jumps in tech spending: Companies that make the necessary hardware see gains before the companies that use that gear can develop offerings that take advantage of it. Other gear makers joined Nvidia in the sharp move higher in after-hours trading Wednesday, including AMD, which gained more than 10%; chip maker Marvell Technology Inc. MRVL, -1.31%,
which increased more than 5%; and networking specialist Arista Networks Inc. ANET, +0.53%,
which added about 5%.
Alphabet and Microsoft stocks both increased around 2% in after-hours trading, and software companies that have made AI a core part of their offerings also saw gains. Palantir Technologies Inc. PLTR, -3.24%
and C3.ai Inc. AI, +2.54%
shares both increased more than 8%, for example.
If the U.S. government cannot pay all its bills because of a debt-ceiling impasse, household borrowing costs could soar, the job market could shed millions of jobs and stock-market valuations could shrink, according to forecasts.
The consequences of a prolonged default could be grim, according to Moody’s Analytics. The projected fallout from a brief default is less severe but still enough to push an “already fragile” economy into a mild recession, Moody’s says.
On Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said it’s “almost certain” that the Treasury will run out of resources in early June. She also said she would provide a new update on the debt-limit deadline “pretty soon.”
For all the uncertainties, financial experts say there are ways individuals can prepare. Start by making sure your deposits are in accounts backed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., and think hard about rate-sensitive purchases like a car or a house.
It’s important for people to have a plan in case there is a default, said Rob Williams, managing director of financial planning, retirement income and wealth management at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, a division of Charles Schwab Corp. SCHW, -1.34%.
“On Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said it’s ‘almost certain’ that the Treasury will run out of resources in early June.”
“Having a financial plan in place that looks at the long and short term is the best way to prepare for the debt ceiling or any other crisis,” he said.
There is still widespread expectation that Congress will strike a political deal that lifts the federal government’s $31 trillion borrowing limit. President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy met again on Monday, and more talks are planned.
McCarthy on Wednesday said he “firmly believe[d]” the sides would reach a deal avoiding default.
But the window of time in which to act is getting smaller. It’s “highly likely” that the government will get to the point where it cannot pay all its bills and debt obligations in early June — possibly as early as June 1, Yellen said this week.
Meanwhile, new Federal Reserve figures offer a reminder that Americans’ personal finances over the last year have been under pressure, even as inflation rates retreat slowly.
More than one-third of people in the U.S. (35%) said they were worse off in 2022 than in 2021, according to the Fed’s annual look at economic well-being, released Monday.
That’s the largest percentage of people saying they were worse off since central bank researchers started asking the question nearly a decade ago.
“If there ever was a time for a rainy-day fund, this is it. But it’s not going to be able to help a lot of consumers,” said Rachel Gittleman, financial services outreach manager for the Consumer Federation of America.
For example, Social Security payments and payments to veterans could be delayed in the event of a default, she said. “There will be a lot of consumers who will be in an impossible financial situation,” Gittleman said.
If the government does not raise the debt ceiling, household borrowing costs could soar, the job market could shed millions of jobs and stock-market valuations could shrink, according to forecasts.
Getty Images/iStockphoto
Make sure your money is safe
The FDIC guarantees deposits up to $250,000 on accounts including checking, savings and certificates of deposit. That won’t change in the case of any default, an FDIC spokesperson told MarketWatch.
Deposit-insurance coverage came into hard focus in early spring when Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank failed, putting other regional banks under pressure as many customers moved their money into bigger banks.
If economic conditions deteriorate after a default, Gittleman said, people will want assurance their money is safe. If you haven’t taken any of the recent bank failures as a sign to put money in an FDIC-insured account, “this would be the time,” she said.
Start cutting costs quickly
During the early days of the pandemic when there were millions of job losses, many people had to quickly cut back on or delay regular expenses.
If a default puts people in an economic vise, Gittleman said they may need to be ready to shut down nonessential recurring payments and talk with their lenders and credit-card companies. “It’s thinking holistically about all of your financial expectations and where you can possibly either get forbearance or some leniency and ask for some help,” she said.
Credit-card debt reached $986 billion in the first quarter, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and delinquencies on credit cards and car loans continued to move higher after pandemic lows.
Rate-sensitive purchases
After more than a year of rising interest rates, it’s already a tough time to finance a major purchase. On Tuesday, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbed higher than 7% for the third time this year.
Any default lasting at least a month would push the 30-year mortgage up to 8.4% in September and price out hundreds of thousands of buyers, according to Zillow Z, -0.83%.
But that is no reason to speed up a home purchase, said Daniel Milan, founder and managing partner of Cornerstone Financial Services.
“Any default lasting at least a month would push the 30-year mortgage up to 8.4% in September and price out hundreds of thousands of buyers, according to Zillow.”
The Federal Reserve doesn’t set mortgage rates, but its policies influence their direction. The big questions are when the central bank will stop increasing its benchmark rate and when it will begin to reduce the rate.
“The odds of a rate cut outweigh the fear or the rush into buying a home now because of the debt-ceiling crisis,” Milan said.
But the Schwab Center’s Williams noted that trying to time a major financial decision around market and political events is a difficult task.
Financial decisions are a mix of math and emotions, even though many people tend to focus more on the math, he said. That’s why it’s important to figure out a financial plan. Often the best course is to stick to your plan and say, “I’m not going to make major changes in the face of market news,” Williams said.
Tuesday marked the Dow’s third straight trading-day loss. By Wednesday afternoon, the index had shed more than 200 points.
The yields on short-term Treasury debt TMUBMUSD01M, 5.666%
maturing in early June are pushing toward 6% amid continued uncertainty about whether a debt-ceiling resolution can come together fast enough to avoid a government default. Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions, reflecting less investor appetite for debt.
There’s no one rule for preparing an investment portfolio for a debt default, financial advisers said. But older retired investors are in a trickier spot — especially in relation to the prospect of delayed Social Security checks — compared with younger investors who have more time to bounce back from adverse events.
“‘We continue to urge clients to make sure we know about any short-term cash needs so that those funds are not at risk.’”
— Lisa A.K. Kirchenbauer, founder and president of Omega Wealth Management
Cash investments have proven attractive in rocky times. But the risk of a debt default could make a heftier cash allocation even more important for older investors, financial advisers said.
“We continue to urge clients to make sure we know about any short-term cash needs so that those funds are not at risk,” said Lisa A.K. Kirchenbauer, founder and president of Omega Wealth Management.
Kirchenbauer said she’s starting to hear from clients about debt-ceiling concerns. “I am making sure that larger [required minimum distributions] are in cash for 2023 now, before anything bad happens in the markets.”
Required minimum distributions are the minimum yearly amounts that have to be pulled out of qualified retirement accounts once the owner reaches a certain age, currently 73.
Preparing for any default is a mental exercise as much as asset allocation, said Amy Hubble, principal investment adviser with Radix Financial. If there’s been no change in a person’s personal circumstances, like job status, income needs or retirement timeline, they should avoid getting sidetracked by short-term issues, she said.
“There are only a small handful of things we can actually control when investing,” Hubble added. “So my advice is always to focus on that: keeping costs low, staying diversified, managing tax-recognition timing and avoiding stupid emotion-driven actions.”
Nvidia Corp. executives predicted record revenue well beyond anything the company has experienced Wednesday, pushing shares toward all-time highs, as margins improve with AI-driven data-center sales.
Nvidia NVDA, -0.49%
guided for second-quarter revenue of $11 billion, plus or minus 2%; the chip maker has never before reported quarterly revenue higher than $8.29 billion, which it hit in the fiscal first quarter a year ago. Analysts on average were expecting $7.17 billion, according to FactSet, a gain from the $6.7 billion in sales Nvidia put up in the fiscal second quarter last year.
On the conference call with analysts, Huang said the simple way to think about it is that the world has “a trillion dollars of data center installed and it used to be 100% CPU,” or central processing units, as opposed to Nvidia’s graphics processors that data centers and AI models have embraced in recent years. And while the world’s data-center budget is strapped, at the same time larger and larger AI models require more and more computing power, he said.
“The easiest way to think about that is over the next four or five, 10 years, most of that trillion dollars, and compensating adjusting for all the growth in data center still, it will be largely generative AI,” Huang said.
“What happened is, when generative AI came along, it triggered a killer app for this computing platform that’s been in preparation for some time,” he added.
The company forecast adjusted gross margins of 70% for the second quarter, after reporting 66.8% for the first quarter, not only as higher data-center margins counter the deficit in gaming, but as Nvidia Chief Financial Officer Colette Kress said on the call: ” We believe the channel inventory correction is behind us.”
Shares soared more than 25% in after-hours trading, following a 0.5% decline in the regular session to $305.38. Nvidia’s record closing price is $333.76 and the all-time intraday high is $346.47, according to FactSet data. After-hours “prices” topped both of those marks, reaching more than 14% beyond all-time highs for the regular session, as shares registered as high as $395, according to FactSet. The last time Nvidia shares rallied as much in a single session was Nov. 11, 2016, when shares surged 29.8% after the company reported that profit more than doubled.
Meanwhile, shares of rival Advanced Micro Devices Inc. AMD, +0.14%
rallied 6% after hours.
Nvidia did not provide full-year guidance, but Chief Executive Jensen Huang has been effusive in his predictions that increased focus on AI from Big Tech partners such as Microsoft Corp. MSFT, -0.45%
and Alphabet Inc. GOOGL, -1.35% GOOG, -1.34%
will lead to revenue gains in the near future. Speaking to the media at Nvidia’s developers conference in March, he said that generative AI has only accounted for a “tiny, tiny, tiny” single-digit percentage of revenue over the past 12 months, but predicted that in the next year, revenue from generative AI will grow to be “quite large — exactly how large, it’s hard to say.”
Nvidia reported fiscal first-quarter earnings of $2.04 billion, or 82 cents a share, on sales of $7.19 billion, a decline from $8.29 billion a year ago but well ahead of expectations. After adjusting for stock compensation and other effects, the chip maker reported earnings of $1.09 a share, a decline from $1.36 a share a year ago. Analysts on average were expecting adjusted earnings of 92 cents a share on sales of $6.53 billion, according to FactSet.
Gaming sales for the first quarter fell 38% to $2.24 billion, while data-center sales at Nvidia rose 14% to a record $4.28 billion, “led by growing demand for generative AI and large language models using GPUs based on our Nvidia Hopper and Ampere architectures.”
“The revenue growth reflects strong demand from large consumer internet companies and cloud service providers,” the company said in a statement. “Enterprise demand for GPU platforms was strong, although general purpose networking solutions declined both sequentially and from a year ago.”
Analysts had expected gaming sales of $1.97 billion — nearly half of last year’s $3.62 billion — and data-center sales of $3.9 billion, a 4% increase from a year ago. Auto chip sales soared 114% to $296 million from a year ago.
Nvidia’s profit and sales have declined in recent quarters as the company deals with oversupply in the market, a result of pandemic-era shortages flipping to a glut after demand for personal computers and gaming gear waned. Analysts expect that trend to end with this report, however, as demand for gear that can power artificial intelligence kicks into higher gear amid a bevy of promises from tech companies about the power of generative AI.
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Meta Platforms Inc. has started to execute on its latest round of layoffs, according to reports.
The third round of cuts is part of a plan that Meta META, +3.70%
Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg announced in March in an effort to further slash costs at the social-media company. He said at the time that Meta would lay off about 10,000 workers while closing roughly 5,000 additional roles for which the company had yet to make hires.
The current rounds of cuts build on at least 11,000 layoffs that were announced last fall.
CNBC reported Wednesday that Meta employees in user experience, marketing and recruiting roles indicated they were affected by the current round of cuts.
Zuckerberg said in a March note to employees, which was also shared as a company blog post, that the company planned to make restructuring moves in its technology groups in late April before making changes to the business groups in late May.
Meta declined to comment in response to a MarketWatch request for confirmation of the latest layoffs.
The company is in the midst of what Zuckerberg has dubbed a “year of efficiency,” which comes in response to investor concern last fall about high spending levels at the company alongside the backdrop of declining revenue. Meta has since become arguably the most aggressive of the largest public technology companies in its cost-cutting efforts.
Lenovo Group’s net profit fell 72% in its fourth quarter, as personal-computer sales continued to decline amid a deteriorating global economy and soft consumer spending.
Net profit for the three months ended March was $114 million, the world’s largest PC maker said Wednesday. That compared with profit of $412 million a year earlier.
Revenue fell 24% to $12.635 billion, as its main business of PC, smartphone and other device sales fell 21%. The company cited a demand slowdown and exchange-rate fluctuations as reasons for the decline.
In a statement Tuesday night, Roc360 said it will buy PacWest’s Civic Financial Services unit for an undisclosed sum. Roc360 will take on the unit’s business operations, but not its previously extended loans or loan-servicing operations.
“In the face of market difficulties, we continue to expand and develop more products and services for real-estate investors,” Roc360 Chief Executive Arvind Raghunathan said in a statement. “We believe that America’s housing stock is severely undersupplied, with more than 50% of homes in deferred maintenance, lacking the modern-day energy efficiencies that our clients install with each loan they take from us. We will continue to prudently expand and invest for long-term solutions to these structural problems.”
New York-based Roc360 is a financial services platform for residential real-estate investors, and includes the brands Roc Capital, Finance of America Commercial, ElmSure, Wimba Title and Tamarisk Appraisals.
On Tuesday, PacWest shares jumped 8% on news of Monday’s loan sale, which also fueled gains among other regional-bank stocks.
PacWest shares have sunk nearly 70% year to date, amid a wider downturn by regional banks following the failures of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and First Republic Bank.
When the U.S. debt-ceiling fight finally is resolved, the Treasury is expected to unleash a flood of bill issuance to help refill its coffers run low by the protracted standoff in Washington, D.C., over the government’s borrowing limit.
Treasury bills are debt issued by the U.S. government that mature in four to 52 weeks. New bill issuance could reach about $1.4 trillion through the end of 2023, with roughly $1 trillion flooding the market before the end of August, according to an estimate from BofA Global strategists.
They expect the deluge through August to be about five times the supply of an average three-month stretch in years before the pandemic.
“The good news is that we have a high degree of confidence around who is going to buy it,” said Mark Cabana, rates strategist at BofA Global, in a phone interview with MarketWatch. “The bad news is that it’s not going to be at current levels. Things have to cheapen.”
Cabana sees a key buyer of bill supply unleashed by a debt-ceiling deal in money-market funds, which have climbed to nearly $5.4 trillion in assets managed since the regional banking crisis erupted in March (see chart).
So people who yanked billions of dollars in deposits from banks after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March and parked them in money-market funds could end up playing an encore performance in this year’s debt-ceiling drama.
Money-market funds swell since March, topping $5 trillion in assets
Money-market funds have been the main reason why at least $2 trillion consistently sits overnight at the Federal Reserve’s reverse repo facility. The program was last offering a roughly 5% rate, a level Cabana said new Treasury bills might need to exceed by about 10-20 basis points.
“It’s an unintended consequence of a debt-ceiling deal getting done,” said George Catrambone, head of fixed income Americas at DWS Group, about market expectations for heavy short-term Treasury bill issuance, but he also expects money-market funds, foreign buyers and other institutions auctions to continue as buyers in the market.
“There’s always buyers. It’s a question of price.”
Congress has struck deals each time U.S. public debt has exceeded its debt ceiling in the past, including by suspending it eight times since 2016 (see chart).
In the past when the U.S. debt-limit has been violated, Congress extended or suspended it
Refinitive, RiverFront
That doesn’t mean financial markets have been sitting by idly. The 1-month Treasury yield TMUBMUSD01M, 5.616%
rose to 5.6% on Wednesday, while the 3-month yield TMUBMUSD03M, 5.350%
was 5.3%, according to FactSet. Bill maturing around the “X-date,” which could come as soon as June 1, have even higher yields.
“Those are obviously pretty heady yields,” Catrambone said. “But it also exemplifies the market having to price in potential market disruptions in the month of June,” even though his team, like many in financial markets, expect that eventually “cooler heads will prevail” in Washington as the debt-ceiling standoff heads down to the wire.
Stocks were lower Wednesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.75%
off almost 300 points, or 0.9%, on pace for a fourth day in a row of losses, according to FactSet. The S&P 500 index SPX, -0.83%
was off 0.9% and the Nasdaq Composite Index was down 0.9%.
Cash balances at the Treasury Department have since dwindled to less than $100 billion, according to economists at Jefferies. Barclays strategists estimate its cash balance may fall below $50 billion between June 5-15.
“Basically, we are just draining our cash account to fund operations while we wait to figure out the debt ceiling,” said Lindsay Rosner, senior portfolio manager at PGIM Fixed Income.
But when the battle over the debt limit ends in a resolution, she expects longer-dated Treasury yields to increase, as haven buying on fears of potentially a full U.S. government default and a credit rating downgrade will have been taken off the table.
“The Armageddon, whatever small probability people were pricing in of catastrophe, remove that,” she said. “And that means the worst economic outcome has been removed.”
That’s also a reason why Rosner has been avoiding ultrashort Treasurys in the eye of the debt-ceiling fight in favor of 2, 3 or 4-year bonds offering some of the highest yields in years.
“We’re being afforded good yield, good spread, a couple of years out the curve,” she said. “Play that game.”
Continued uncertainty about whether a debt-ceiling resolution can come together fast enough to avoid a government default pushed yields on Treasury bills maturing between early and mid-June toward 6% on Tuesday.
The yield on Treasury bills maturing on June 6 touched that level before slipping slightly to 5.997% Tuesday afternoon, according to Bloomberg data. Meanwhile, the rate on T-bills maturing on June 8 was at 5.905%.
In addition, the one-year T-bill issued in June 2022 and which matures on June 15 was yielding 6.141%, though analysts said that was likely being impacted by a government auction on Tuesday. That 6.141% yield was the highest of any government obligation maturing within two weeks after the so-called X-date of June 1 — when Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the government might be unable to pay all its bills if no action is taken on the debt ceiling.
The Treasury bill market is where debt-ceiling angst has played out the most and Tuesday brought wild trading as investors questioned whether the government will be forced to miss payments after June 1. At the moment, the T-bill market is in a state of dislocation — one in which yields ranged from as little as 2.924% on the government obligation maturing on May 30 to as high as 6.141% on the 1-year bill maturing in three weeks.
The higher the yield on a Treasury obligation, the more investors are demanding to be compensated for the risk of holding that bill. Yields also rise when investors are selling off or staying away from the underlying maturity. Tuesday’s moves suggest that investors and traders are factoring in at least some risk that the government could cross the X-date without a debt-ceiling resolution.
Right now, the market regards bills maturing between June 6 and June 15 as “the most at risk for a delayed payment and no one wants to own” them, said Lawrence Gillum, the Charlotte, N.C.-based chief fixed income strategist at LPL Financial.
“Ultimately, markets expect something to get done, but money managers who have to own those T-bills are not taking any chances,” he said via phone.
For much of Tuesday, the broader financial market appeared to be relatively confident that a debt-ceiling agreement could be reached by June 1, a day after President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy each described talks as “productive” on Monday. Then came word of McCarthy telling House Republicans on Tuesday that negotiators were nowhere near a deal yet, with Bloomberg citing Republican Representative Ralph Norman and another unidentified person in the room.
COMP, -1.26%
finished lower, while Treasury yields beyond the 2-year rate slipped toward the end of Tuesday’s New York trading session — a sign of fading optimism in the outlook for the U.S. economy.
One of the financial market’s favorite indicators of impending U.S. recessions — the difference between the 2- and 10-year Treasury yields — has been persistently inverted since July 5, 2022. That’s the longest such streak since May 1980, and yet no recession has been declared so far by the only arbiters who matter, those at the National Bureau of Economic Research.
On Tuesday, fed funds futures traders priced in a 28.1% chance of another quarter-point rate hike by the central bank in June, which would take the main policy rate target to between 5.25%-5.5%. They also factored in a slight 5.6% likelihood of another similar-size rate hike in July.
Gillum and Greg Faranello, head of U.S. rates at AmeriVet Securities in New York, said they see a small chance of no debt-ceiling agreement by June 1. Under such a scenario, the Treasury market would fall into “disarray,” with T-bill yields spiking in a manner reminiscent of last year’s crisis of confidence in the U.K. bond market, they said. It would also make it harder for the Fed to hike rates on June 14, and likely lead to a flight-to-quality trade in longer-term Treasurys as equities sell off.
As of Tuesday, the T-bill market was “definitely showing some signs of stress, there’s no question about it,” Faranello said via phone. Meanwhile, “the economy is doing better than the narrative of recession,” even after the recent turmoil in regional banks, and a move toward 4% in the 10-year rate this year “can’t be ruled out.” However, that could change quickly based on the outcome of the debt-ceiling debate.
Getting something done on the debt ceiling by June 1 “is going to be a challenge,” Faranello said. The risk of default “is small but not a zero-percent probability,” as is the prospect of chaos if negotiators come too close to the wire and create a period of confusion in the Treasury market.
“At a minimum, there would be pretty severe economic damage” from a default or any confusion, it “could be chaotic,” and “you would see that impact on risk assets,” he said.
CHEYENNE, Wyo. (AP) — Declaring a mission to liberate “Taco Tuesday” for all, Taco Bell is asking U.S. regulators to force Wyoming-based Taco John’s to abandon its longstanding claim to the trademark.
Too many businesses and others refer to “Taco Tuesday” for Taco John’s to be able to have exclusive rights to the phrase, Taco Bell asserts in a U.S. Patent and Trademark Office filing that is, of course, dated Tuesday.
It’s the latest development in a long-running beef over “Taco Tuesday” that even included NBA star LeBron James making an unsuccessful attempt to claim the trademark in 2019.
“Taco Bell believes ‘Taco Tuesday’ is critical to everyone’s Tuesday. To deprive anyone of saying ‘Taco Tuesday’ — be it Taco Bell or anyone who provides tacos to the world — is like depriving the world of sunshine itself,” the Taco Bell filing reads.
A key question is whether “Taco Tuesday” over the years has succumbed to “genericide,” New York trademark lawyer Emily Poler said. That’s the term for when a word or phrase become so widely used for similar products — or in this case, sales promotions — they’re no longer associated with the trademark holder.
Well-known examples of genericide victims include “cellophane,” “escalator” and “trampoline.”
“Basically what this is about is you cannot trademark something that is ‘generic,’ ” Poler said. “That means it doesn’t have any association with that particular source or product.”
Basketball legend James — a well-known taco lover — encountered this problem when he tried to trademark “Taco Tuesday” in 2019. The Patent and Trademark Office, in a ruling that didn’t refer to Taco John’s, deemed “Taco Tuesday” too much of a “commonplace term” to qualify as a trademark.
With more than 7,200 locations in the U.S. and internationally, Taco Bell — a Yum Brands YUM, -2.45%
chain along with Pizza Hut, KFC and the Habit Burger Grill — is vastly bigger than Cheyenne-based Taco John’s. Begun as a food truck more than 50 years ago, Taco John’s now has about 370 locations in 23 mainly in western and midwestern states.
The chain’s size hasn’t discouraged big-time enforcement of “Taco Tuesday” as trademark, which dates to the 1980s. In 2019, the company sent a letter to a brewery just five blocks from its corporate headquarters, warning it to stop using “Taco Tuesday” to promote a taco truck parked outside on Tuesdays.
Actively defending a trademark is required to maintain claim to it, and the letter was just one example of Taco John’s telling restaurants far and wide to stop having “Taco Tuesdays.”
Taco John’s responded to Taco Bell’s filing by announcing a new two-week Taco Tuesday promotion, with a large side of riposte.
“I’d like to thank our worthy competitors at Taco Bell for reminding everyone that Taco Tuesday is best celebrated at Taco John’s,” CEO Jim Creel said in an emailed statement. “We love celebrating Taco Tuesday with taco lovers everywhere, and we even want to offer a special invitation to fans of Taco Bell to liberate themselves by coming by to see how flavorful and bold tacos can be at Taco John’s all month long.”
The filing is one of two from Taco Bell involving “Taco Tuesday.” One contests Taco John’s claim to “Taco Tuesday” in 49 states, while a similar filing contests a New Jersey restaurant and bar’s claim to “Taco Tuesday” in that state. Both Taco John’s and Gregory’s Restaurant and Bar in Somers Point, N.J., have been using “Taco Tuesday” for over 40 years.
A Taco John’s franchisee in Minnesota first came up with “Taco Twosday” to promote two tacos for 99 cents on a slow day of the week, Creel told the Associated Press in a recent interview.
The Patent and Trademark Office approved the Taco John’s “Taco Tuesday” trademark in 1989. Even with its many letters, Creel said, the company — established in 1969 in Cheyenne, Wyo. — has never had to go to court over the phrase.
He’s not feeling too picked on, either, by the much bigger Taco Bell. “It’s OK. It’s kind of nice that they’ve noticed,” Creel said.
