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  • Biden administration to cancel $9 billion in student debt for 125,000 borrowers

    Biden administration to cancel $9 billion in student debt for 125,000 borrowers

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    Roughly 125,000 borrowers will have $9 billion in student debt cancelled, the Biden administration announced Wednesday. 

    The cohort receiving the relief includes three groups of borrowers who have been eligible to have their debt forgiven for years but struggled to access that benefit. They are public servants who have been working for the government or certain nonprofits for more than 10 years and paying on their student loans during that time; borrowers who have been in repayment on their loans for more than 20 years; and borrowers who are severely disabled. 

    The announcement comes as payments are resuming this month for 28 million student-loan borrowers for the first time in three years, now that the pandemic-era payment pause has ended. Some have reported challenges enrolling in repayment plans and getting correct information from their servicers about their payment amounts. 

    Student-loan borrower advocates had called on the Biden administration to wipe debt off the books for borrowers who are already eligible for cancellation under the law before resuming repayment. They’ve said that would help alleviate some of the strain the return to repayment is putting on the student-loan system. It wasn’t immediately clear whether borrowers who are part of Wednesday’s announcement will have their debt cancelled right away or need to wait for a period for the discharge to be processed. 

    Wednesday’s announcement is distinct from the broad-based debt cancellation that’s grabbed headlines in recent months. Earlier this year, the Supreme Court struck down the Biden administration’s plan to cancel up to $20,000 in debt for borrowers earning less than $125,000.

    Last week, officials provided more detail on President Joe Biden’s plan to take another stab at mass debt forgiveness. The process to determine the contours of that relief continues, with a set of meetings next week, and likely won’t be resolved for several months. 

    Part of groups already eligible for relief under the law

    The borrowers covered by Wednesday’s announcement are part of groups that were already entitled to debt cancellation under the law, but for years have struggled to access it due to paperwork and technicalities. Officials have faced pressure from advocates for years to smooth the path to relief for these borrowers. 

    The group includes 53,000 borrowers who are receiving $5.2 billion in cancellations under the Public Service Loan Forgiveness program. That initiative allows borrowers who work for the government and certain nonprofits to have their student debt forgiven after at least 10 years of payments. 

    But it was notoriously challenging to access. Roughly 1% of borrowers who applied for relief in the first years of the program actually had their debt cancelled. The Biden administration has taken steps to make it easier for borrowers who meet the spirit of the law to overcome technicalities that in the past had stymied their path to forgiveness. 

    In addition, the Department of Education has approved debt discharges totaling $2.8 billion for nearly 51,000 borrowers who made more than 20 years of payments on their loans, officials announced Wednesday.

    For decades, the government has offered federal student-loan borrowers the ability to pay their debt as a percentage of their income and have the remainder cancelled after at least 20 years. The idea was to provide an alternative to borrowers who couldn’t afford to pay off their debt in 10 years through a mortgage-style plan. 

    But in the first years, borrowers would have been eligible to have their debt forgiven under these income-driven repayment plans, more than 2 million borrowers who were in repayment for more than 20 years were still paying.

    Consumer advocates and regulators said that was largely because servicers were steering borrowers towards forbearance — a status that pauses payments, but where the debt still accrues interest and borrowers don’t build credit toward forgiveness — instead of helping them sign up for these plans. 

    Last year, the Department of Education said it would review borrowers’ payment history to see whether there were periods when they should have been building credit toward forgiveness, but those months weren’t accurately counted. The agency said it would adjust their payment history accordingly. The 51,000 borrowers are part of this group. Already the Biden administration has cancelled the debt of more than 800,000 borrowers through this initiative. 

    Finally, officials said that nearly 22,000 borrowers who have a total or permanent disability will have about $1.2 billion in student loans cancelled. Borrowers with a disability that is so severe they’ll never work again qualify to have their federal student loans wiped out. But for years, many eligible borrowers found the application process, which historically required them to provide proof of their disability, challenging to navigate

    In 2021, the Biden administration announced it would match borrowers’ data with data at the Social Security Administration, which through its work administering disability benefits has the information that would indicate whether a borrower is eligible for a total and permanent disability discharge. The roughly 22,000 had their debt discharged approved through this data match, the agency said. 

    “For years, millions of eligible borrowers were unable to access the student-debt relief they qualified for, but that’s all changed thanks to President Biden and this administration’s relentless efforts to fix the broken student-loan system,” Miguel Cardona, the secretary of education, said in a statement announcing the relief.

    “Today’s announcement builds on everything our administration has already done to protect students from unaffordable debt, make repayment more affordable and ensure that investments in higher education pay off for students and working families,” he added.  

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  • Kevin McCarthy ousted as House speaker, falling after historic challenge by Matt Gaetz

    Kevin McCarthy ousted as House speaker, falling after historic challenge by Matt Gaetz

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    The U.S. House of Representatives removed Rep. Kevin McCarthy from his post on Tuesday, as 216 members of his chamber voted in favor of ousting him while 210 supported him.

    Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida led the challenge against his fellow Republican, filing what’s known as a “motion to vacate” late Monday, after McCarthy relied on House Democrats to pass a short-term measure that averted a partial government shutdown.

    “I don’t think voting against Kevin McCarthy is chaos,” Gaetz said in a speech Tuesday on the House floor. “I think $33 trillion in debt is chaos. I think that facing a $2.2 trillion annual deficit is chaos. I think that not passing single-subject spending bills is chaos.”

    The Florida congressman had said on Sunday that he expected Democrats were “going to bail out” McCarthy, meaning support him enough to offset the opposition from Gaetz and some other Republicans, but the vote didn’t play out that way.

    Eight Republicans joined with all Democrats to vote against McCarthy. The eight were Andy Biggs of Arizona, Ken Buck of Colorado, Tim Burchett of Tennessee, Eli Crane of Arizona, Gaetz, Bob Good of Virginia, Nancy Mace of South Carolina and Matt Rosendale of Montana. There were a few lawmakers who were absent, such as Democratic Rep. Nancy Pelosi of California, McCarthy’s predecessor.

    See: Kevin McCarthy’s House speakership appears in peril with Democrats ‘not saving’ him

    GOP Rep. Patrick McHenry of North Carolina is now serving as the speaker pro tempore, or temporary speaker.

    Until now, no House speaker had ever been removed by a motion to vacate. The move requires a simple majority of the House to succeed and can be triggered by a single member.

    Rep. Tom Emmer of Minnesota, who has been the No. 3 House Republican, was among the GOP lawmakers who spoke in favor of McCarthy.

    “Under Speaker McCarthy’s leadership, our House Republican majority has actually defied all odds and over-performed expectations again and again and again,” Emmer said on the House floor.

    There has been a view among analysts that a divided Washington’s spending might not change that much even if Gaetz managed to oust McCarthy, as MarketWatch reported.

    About 80% of Congress looks likely to vote for a spending deal that would call for some increases in outlays, Ukraine aid, money for the U.S.-Mexico border and a new commission on the nation’s debt, said Chris Krueger, managing director at TD Cowen’s Washington Research Group, in a note. That agreement would come around when a new deadline of Nov. 17 hits.

    U.S. stocks
    SPX

    DJIA

    COMP
    could end up taking a hit from the House’s drama, according to Stifel’s chief Washington policy strategist, Brian Gardner.

    “Removing Mr. McCarthy as Speaker could fuel temporary risk-off sentiment in the markets,” Gardner wrote in a note Tuesday. He suggested that markets “might react negatively to government dysfunction.”

    Stocks closed sharply lower Tuesday, after a report on job openings showed the labor market remains tight, leaving room for more interest-rate hikes.

    Read more: What McCarthy ouster means for markets as investors fret over congressional ‘dysfunction’

    A motion to vacate last went to a House vote in 1910, with then-Speaker Joseph Cannon surviving it and staying on as the chamber’s leader. Such a motion was filed in July 2015 against then-Speaker John Boehner and not voted on by the House at that time, but Boehner went on to announce his resignation in September 2015.

    In addition, a motion to vacate was considered in 1997 but ultimately not used by a small group of House Republicans who had grown disgruntled with the leadership of then-Speaker Newt Gingrich.

    Now read: Kevin McCarthy ousted: Here’s who could replace him as House speaker

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  • These 20 stocks in the S&P 500 are expected to soar after rising interest rates have pushed down valuations

    These 20 stocks in the S&P 500 are expected to soar after rising interest rates have pushed down valuations

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    Two things investors can be sure about: Nothing lasts forever and the stock market always overreacts. The spiking of yields on long-term U.S. Treasury securities has been breathtaking, and it has led to remarkable declines for some sectors and possible bargains for contrarian investors who can commit for the long term.

    First we will show how the sectors of the S&P 500

    have performed. Then we will look at price-to-earnings valuations for the sectors and compare them to long-term averages. Then we will screen the entire index for companies trading below their long-term forward P/E valuation averages and narrow the list to companies most favored by analysts.

    Here are total returns, with dividends reinvested, for the 11 sectors of the S&P 500, with broad indexes below. The sectors are sorted by ascending total returns this year through Monday.

    Sector or index

    2023 return

    2022 return

    Return since end of 2021

    1 week return

    1 month return

    Utilities

    -18.4%

    1.6%

    -17.2%

    -11.1%

    -9.6%

    Real Estate

    -7.1%

    -26.1%

    -31.4%

    -3.0%

    -8.8%

    Consumer Staples

    -5.4%

    -0.6%

    -6.0%

    -2.2%

    -4.4%

    Healthcare

    -4.2%

    -2.0%

    -6.1%

    -1.7%

    -3.3%

    Financials

    -2.5%

    -10.5%

    -12.7%

    -2.5%

    -4.7%

    Materials

    1.3%

    -12.3%

    -11.2%

    -1.9%

    -7.0%

    Industrials

    3.5%

    -5.5%

    -2.1%

    -1.8%

    -7.3%

    Energy

    4.0%

    65.7%

    72.4%

    -1.9%

    -1.4%

    Consumer Discretionary

    27.0%

    -37.0%

    -20.0%

    -0.6%

    -5.2%

    Information Technology

    36.5%

    -28.2%

    -2.0%

    0.8%

    -5.9%

    Communication Services

    42.5%

    -39.9%

    -14.3%

    1.1%

    -1.3%

    S&P 500
    13.1%

    -18.1%

    -7.4%

    -1.1%

    -4.9%

    DJ Industrial Average
    2.5%

    -6.9%

    -4.5%

    -1.7%

    -4.0%

    Nasdaq Composite Index
    COMP
    28.0%

    -32.5%

    -13.7%

    0.3%

    -5.1%

    Nasdaq-100 Index
    36.5%

    -32.4%

    -7.7%

    0.5%

    -4.2%

    Source: FactSet

    Returns for 2022 are also included, along with those since the end of 2021. Last year’s weakest sector, communications services, has been this year’s strongest performer. This sector includes Alphabet Inc.
    GOOGL
    and Meta Platforms Inc.
    META,
    which have returned 52% and 155% this year, respectively, but are still down since the end of 2021. To the right are returns for the past week and month through Monday.

    On Monday, the S&P 500 Utilities sector had its worst one-day performance since 2020, with a 4.7% decline. Investors were reacting to the jump in long-term interest rates.

    Here is a link to the U.S. Treasury Department’s summary of the daily yield curve across maturities for Treasury securities.

    The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes

    jumped 10 basis points in only one day to 4.69% on Monday. A month earlier the 10-year yield was only 4.27%. Also on Monday, the yield on 20-year Treasury bonds

    rose to 5.00% from 4.92% on Friday. It was up from 4.56% a month earlier.

    Market Extra: Bond investors feel the heat as popular fixed-income ETF suffers lowest close since 2007

    The Treasury yield curve is still inverted, with 3-month T-bills

    yielding 5.62% on Monday, but that was up only slightly from a month earlier. An inverted yield curve has traditionally signaled that bond investors expect a recession within a year and a lowering of interest rates by the Federal Reserve. Demand for bonds pushes their prices down. But the reverse has happened over recent days, with the selling of longer-term Treasury securities pushing yields up rapidly.

    Another way to illustrate the phenomenon is to look at how the Federal Reserve has shifted the U.S. money supply. Odeon Capital analyst Dick Bove wrote in a note to clients on Friday that “the Federal Reserve has not deviated from its policy to defeat inflation by tightening monetary policy,” as it has shrunk its balance sheet (mostly Treasury securities) to $8.1 trillion from $9 trillion in March 2022. He added: “The M2 money supply was $21.8 trillion in March 2022; today it is $20.8 trillion. You cannot get tighter than these numbers indicate.”

    Then on Tuesday, Bove illustrated the Fed’s tightening and the movement of the 10-year yield with two charts:


    Odeon Capital Group, Bloomberg

    Bove said he believes the bond market has gotten it wrong, with the inverted yield curve reflecting expectations of rate cuts next year. If he is correct, investors can expect longer-term yields to keep shooting up and a normalization of the yield curve.

    This has set up a brutal environment for utility stocks, which are typically desired by investors who are seeking dividend income. In a market in which you can receive a yield of 5.5% with little risk over the short term, and in which you can lock in a long-term yield of about 5%, why take a risk in the stock market? And if you believe that the core inflation rate of 3.7% makes a 5% yield seem paltry, keep in mind that not all investors think the same way. Many worry less about the inflation rate because large components of official inflation calculations, such as home prices and car prices, don’t affect everyone every year.

    We cannot know when this current selloff of longer-term bonds will end, or how much of an effect it will have on the stock market. But sharp declines in the stock market can set up attractive price points for investors looking to go in for the long haul.

    Screening for lower valuations and high ratings

    A combination of rising earnings estimates and price declines could shed light on potential buying opportunities, based on forward price-to-earnings ratios.

    Let’s look at the sectors again, in the same order, this time to show their forward P/E ratios, based on weighted rolling 12-month consensus estimates for earnings per share among analysts polled by FactSet:

    Sector or index

    Current P/E to 5-year average

    Current P/E to 10-year average

    Current P/E to 15-year average

    Forward P/E

    5-year average P/E

    10-year average P/E

    15-year average P/E

    Utilities

    82%

    86%

    95%

    14.99

    18.30

    17.40

    15.82

    Real Estate

    76%

    80%

    81%

    15.19

    19.86

    18.89

    18.72

    Consumer Staples

    93%

    96%

    105%

    18.61

    19.92

    19.30

    17.64

    Healthcare

    103%

    104%

    115%

    16.99

    16.46

    16.34

    14.72

    Financials

    88%

    92%

    97%

    12.90

    14.65

    14.08

    13.26

    Materials

    100%

    103%

    111%

    16.91

    16.98

    16.42

    15.27

    Industrials

    88%

    96%

    105%

    17.38

    19.84

    18.16

    16.56

    Energy

    106%

    63%

    73%

    11.78

    11.17

    18.80

    16.23

    Consumer Discretionary

    79%

    95%

    109%

    24.09

    30.41

    25.39

    22.10

    Information Technology

    109%

    130%

    146%

    24.20

    22.17

    18.55

    16.54

    Communication Services

    86%

    86%

    94%

    16.41

    19.09

    19.00

    17.43

    S&P 500
    94%

    101%

    112%

    17.94

    19.01

    17.76

    16.04

    DJ Industrial Average
    93%

    98%

    107%

    16.25

    17.49

    16.54

    15.17

    Nasdaq Composite Index
    92%

    102%

    102%

    24.62

    26.71

    24.18

    24.18

    Nasdaq-100 Index
    97%

    110%

    126%

    24.40

    25.23

    22.14

    19.43

    There is a limit to how many columns we can show in the table. The S&P 500’s forward P/E ratio is now 17.94, compared with 16.79 at the end of 2022 and 21.53 at the end of 2021. The benchmark index’s P/E is above its 10- and 15-year average levels but below the five-year average.

    If we compare the current sector P/E numbers to 5-, 10- and 15-year averages, we can see that the current levels are below all three averages for four sectors: utilities, real estate, financials and communications services. The first three face obvious difficulties as they adjust to the rising-rate environment, while the real-estate sector reels from continuing low usage rates for office buildings, from the change in behavior brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic.

    Your own opinions, along with the pricing for some sectors, might drive some investment choices.

    A broader screen of the S&P 500 might point to companies for you to research further.

    We narrowed the S&P 500 as follows:

    • Current forward P/E below 5-, 10- and 15-year average valuations. For stocks with negative earnings-per-share estimates for the next 12 months, there is no forward P/E ratio so they were excluded. For stocks listed for less than 15 years, we required at least a 5-year average P/E for comparison. This brought the list down to 138 companies.

    • “Buy” or equivalent ratings from at least two-thirds of analysts: 41 companies.

    Here are the 20 companies that passed the screen, for which analysts’ price targets imply the highest upside potential over the next 12 months.

    There is too much data for one table, so first we will show the P/E information:

    Company

    Ticker

    Current P/E to 5-year average

    Current P/E to 10-year average

    Current P/E to 15-year average

    SolarEdge Technologies Inc.

    SEDG 89%

    N/A

    N/A

    AES Corp.

    AES 66%

    75%

    90%

    Insulet Corp.

    PODD 18%

    N/A

    N/A

    United Airlines Holdings Inc.

    UAL 42%

    50%

    N/A

    Alaska Air Group Inc.

    ALK 51%

    57%

    N/A

    Tapestry Inc.

    TPR 39%

    49%

    70%

    Albemarle Corp.

    ALB 39%

    50%

    73%

    Delta Air Lines Inc.

    DAL 60%

    63%

    21%

    Alexandria Real Estate Equities Inc.

    ARE 59%

    68%

    N/A

    Las Vegas Sands Corp.

    LVS 96%

    78%

    53%

    Paycom Software Inc.

    PAYC 61%

    N/A

    N/A

    PayPal Holdings Inc.

    PYPL 33%

    N/A

    N/A

    SBA Communications Corp. Class A

    SBAC 27%

    N/A

    N/A

    Advanced Micro Devices Inc.

    AMD 58%

    39%

    N/A

    LKQ Corp.

    LKQ 92%

    44%

    78%

    Charles Schwab Corp.

    SCHW 75%

    54%

    73%

    PulteGroup Inc.

    PHM 94%

    47%

    N/A

    Lamb Weston Holdings Inc.

    LW 71%

    N/A

    N/A

    News Corp Class A

    NWSA 93%

    73%

    N/A

    CVS Health Corp.

    CVS 75%

    61%

    67%

    Source: FactSet

    Click on the tickers for more about each company or index.

    Click here for Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information available for free on the MarketWatch quote page.

    News Corp
    NWSA
    is on the list. The company owns Dow Jones, which in turn owns MarketWatch.

    Here’s the list again, with ratings and consensus price-target information:

    Company

    Ticker

    Share “buy” ratings

    Oct. 2 price

    Consensus price target

    Implied 12-month upside potential

    SolarEdge Technologies Inc.

    SEDG 74%

    $122.56

    $268.77

    119%

    AES Corp.

    AES 79%

    $14.16

    $25.60

    81%

    Insulet Corp.

    PODD 68%

    $165.04

    $279.00

    69%

    United Airlines Holdings Inc.

    UAL 71%

    $41.62

    $69.52

    67%

    Alaska Air Group Inc.

    ALK 87%

    $36.83

    $61.31

    66%

    Tapestry Inc.

    TPR 75%

    $28.58

    $46.21

    62%

    Albemarle Corp.

    ALB 81%

    $162.41

    $259.95

    60%

    Delta Air Lines Inc.

    DAL 95%

    $36.45

    $58.11

    59%

    Alexandria Real Estate Equities Inc.

    ARE 100%

    $98.18

    $149.45

    52%

    Las Vegas Sands Corp.

    LVS 72%

    $45.70

    $68.15

    49%

    Paycom Software Inc.

    PAYC 77%

    $260.04

    $384.89

    48%

    PayPal Holdings Inc.

    PYPL 69%

    $58.56

    $86.38

    48%

    SBA Communications Corp. Class A

    SBAC 68%

    $198.24

    $276.69

    40%

    Advanced Micro Devices Inc.

    AMD 74%

    $103.27

    $143.07

    39%

    LKQ Corp.

    LKQ 82%

    $49.13

    $67.13

    37%

    Charles Schwab Corp.

    SCHW 77%

    $53.55

    $72.67

    36%

    PulteGroup Inc.

    PHM 81%

    $73.22

    $98.60

    35%

    Lamb Weston Holdings Inc.

    LW 100%

    $92.23

    $123.50

    34%

    News Corp Class A

    NWSA 78%

    $20.00

    $26.42

    32%

    CVS Health Corp.

    CVS 77%

    $69.69

    $90.88

    30%

    Source: FactSet

    A year may actually be a short period for a long-term investor, but 12-month price targets are the norm for analysts working for brokerage companies.

    Don’t miss: This fund shows that industry expertise can help you make a lot of money in the stock market

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  • Boohoo Cuts Revenue Views on Slower Volume Recovery

    Boohoo Cuts Revenue Views on Slower Volume Recovery

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    By Michael Susin

    Boohoo Group has downgraded its fiscal 2024 revenue targets on slower-than-expected sales volume recovery, and reported a widened pretax loss for the first half.

    The London-listed online fashion retailer said Tuesday that it expects revenue for the year ending Feb. 28 to decline by 12% to 17%, compared with previous guidance of flat growth or a fall of up to 5%.

    Despite the revenue slip, the company continues to expect adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization–which strips out exceptional and other one-off items–margins to be between 4% and 4.5%, given the progress made on gross margin and cost control.

    Boohoo backed its adjusted Ebitda target of between 58 million pounds to 70 million pounds ($70.1 million and $84.6 million), while capital expenditure is expected to be around GBP75 million.

    The company also reported a pretax loss for the six months ended Aug. 31 of GBP26.4 million, compared with a loss of GBP15.2 million for the same period a year ago.

    Revenue fell to GBP729.1 million from GBP882.4 million, with U.K. sales down 19% and international sales down 15%.

    The drop was driven by a 10% revenue fall in core brands, consistent with guidance as the group targeted more profitable sales.

    Boohoo added that inventory significantly reduced, down GBP94 million, or 35%, on year.

    “Our confidence in the medium-term prospects for the group remains unchanged as we execute on our key priorities where we see a clear path to improved profitability and getting back to growth,” Chief Executive John Lyttle said.

    Write to Michael Susin at michael.susin@wsj.com

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  • Jets-Chiefs is highest-rated TV show since the Super Bowl, thanks to Taylor Swift and 2 million more female viewers

    Jets-Chiefs is highest-rated TV show since the Super Bowl, thanks to Taylor Swift and 2 million more female viewers

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    Taylor Swift continues to boost the NFL’s profile.

    NBC’s Sunday Night Football game between the New York Jets and the Kansas City Chiefs averaged 27 million viewers, making it the most-watched TV show since Super Bowl LVII in February, according to NBC’s PR team.

    Swift attended the Chiefs’ 23-20 win and was shown on the television broadcast several times, alongside celebrities Blake Lively and Ryan Reynolds. Swift has a new public friendship and rumored relationship with Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce, and the interest in that topic has led to increases in TV ratings for the two games Swift has attended, and to boosts in sales of NFL merchandise.

    Swift’s massive fanbase has influence across all ages and all types of people, but she is particularly popular among women and girls, and that group is who propelled NBC
    CMCSA,
    +0.34%

    and Sunday Night Football to such lofty viewership heights.

    “Viewership among teen girls (age 12-17) spiked 53% from the season-to-date average of the first three weeks of SNF, while the audience among women aged 18-24 was up 24%, and women 35+ increased 34%,” NBC said. “The collective growth resulted in an approximate viewership increase of more than 2 million female viewers.”

    Viewership peaked at an estimated 29.4 million viewers between 9:30 and 9:45 p.m. Eastern, as the Jets attempted to claw their way back in the second quarter of the game. Last year’s Sunday Night Football games averaged 19.9 million viewers, according to same-day data released by Nielsen and digital data from Adobe Analytics.

    In preparation for Swift’s attendance, NBC used a Swift song, “Welcome to New York,” as the theme music for its video promo of the game, which was viewed roughly 8 million times.

    Since Swift was first linked to Kelce, the Chiefs tight end has enjoyed the Taylor Swift effect. For example:

    • The “New Heights with Jason and Travis Kelce” podcast, featuring Kelce and his brother, shot up to No. 1 on Apple’s podcast charts last week.

    • Kelce’s social-media influence has flourished, with his Instagram followers jumping from 2.7 million followers to 3.8 million in about two weeks.

    • Kelce had one of the top five highest-selling NFL jerseys last week, and sales of Kelce merchandise spiked 400% on Fanatics, the NFL’s official merchandise seller.

    See also: Want to watch every NFL game this season? Here’s how much it will cost you.

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  • GameStop’s stock on pace for lowest close in two-and-a-half-years

    GameStop’s stock on pace for lowest close in two-and-a-half-years

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    Shares of GameStop Corp. fell 6.9% Monday and are trading at $15.33, putting the stock on pace for its lowest close since Feb. 23, 2021, when it closed at $11.24, FactSet data show.

    The stock, which is down for four of the last five days, is on pace for its largest percent decrease since June 8, 2023, when it fell 17.89%, according to FactSet.

    Related: GameStop’s stock soars after activist investor Ryan Cohen named CEO

    Activist investor Ryan Cohen was named CEO of GameStop
    GME,
    -6.59%

    last week, marking the latest chapter in his attempt to breathe new life into the video-game retailer and original meme-stock company.

    Cohen, the co-founder and former CEO of Chewy Inc. 
    CHWY,
    +1.92%
    ,
      made his first investment in GameStop in August 2020 via his investment firm RC Ventures. News of Cohen’s 9% stake in the gaming retailer sent its stock surging. The activist investor quickly began pushing for an overhaul of GameStop, with a focus on digital sales, and he joined the company’s board in January 2021. He consolidated his power at GameStop when he became the company’s chairman in June 2021.

    Ryan Cohen becomes GameStop CEO and social media reacts: ‘Changing the paradigm on Wall Street’

    In its statement announcing Cohen’s election as CEO, GameStop confirmed that he will not receive compensation for serving as the company’s president, chief executive and chairman.

    The video game retailer reported better-than-expected second-quarter results last month, boosted by international sales and what the company described as “a significant software release.” GameStop is also ramping up its efforts to control costs.

    Ryan Cohen has no ‘new idea’: Analyst blasts ‘doomed’ GameStop after leadership announcement

    GameStop shares are down 17% in 2023, compared with the S&P 500 Index’s
    SPX
    gain of 11.2%.

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  • Tesla, Rivian, Discover, Sphere Entertainment, Nvidia, and More Stock Market Movers

    Tesla, Rivian, Discover, Sphere Entertainment, Nvidia, and More Stock Market Movers

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  • Novartis Says Kidney Drug Phase 3 Trial Reaches Positive Interim Result

    Novartis Says Kidney Drug Phase 3 Trial Reaches Positive Interim Result

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    By Adria Calatayud

    Novartis said an interim analysis from a phase 3 trial to evaluate its investigational iptacopan drug in patients with kidney disease nephropathy achieved positive results, meeting its primary goal.

    The Swiss pharmaceutical company said Monday that an analysis of study data at nine months showed a clinically meaningful and statistically significant reduction in protein in urine. The company said this demonstrated superiority of iptacopan relative to placebo in reducing protein in urine.

    The safety profile of the drug was consistent with previously reported data, Novartis said.

    Novartis said it plans to review the trial’s interim results with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration to enable a potential regulatory submission for accelerated approval.

    The study will now continue to assess the iptacopan’s ability to slow disease progression over two years, the company said. Results from the primary goal at the end of the study are expected in 2025.

    Write to Adria Calatayud at adria.calatayud@dowjones.com

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  • How to maximize your streaming in October 2023, and why Netflix is all you really need

    How to maximize your streaming in October 2023, and why Netflix is all you really need

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    It’s time to churn, baby, churn.

    The streaming scene has changed significantly over the past year or so, and for the worse: more expensive, less new programming, smaller libraries of older shows. And it’s coming at a time when consumers are being increasingly pressed by higher costs on all fronts. Prices for Disney’s ad-free tiers are rising sharply in October, and Amazon will jack up prices early next year for those who don’t want to see commercials. So it’s time for consumers to once again reassess which services are really worth paying for.

    There are three options if you don’t want your monthly streaming bill to look like your old triple-digit cable bill: bundle (you can save significantly with a Hulu-Disney+ package, for example), move to cheaper plans with commercials (ugh) or just drop the services you watch least. Pick a maximum monthly price ceiling and stick to it — at this point, most people don’t need more than two or three services anyway.

    If you’re frustrated by paying more for less, and want to make a point, cancelling a service is the one way that companies will take notice. Streaming services hate churn (adding and dropping services month-to-month) because it lowers their subscriber base and forces them to raise their marketing costs to win you back. As a consumer, it’s really your only weapon.

    Don’t like how Max keeps removing older shows? Dump it. Finding yourself watching less and less Disney+? Ditch it. It’s satisfying, it’s economical and you can always sign up again in the future.

    One benefit of streaming services is they’re a lot easier to cancel than cable. With prices soaring, now’s the time to be brutal in winnowing your subscriptions. A churn strategy takes some planning, but it pays off. Keep in mind that a billing cycle starts when you sign up, not necessarily at the beginning of the month.

    Each month, this column offers tips on how to maximize your streaming and your budget, rating the major services as a “play,” “pause” or “stop” — similar to investment analysts’ traditional ratings of buy, hold or sell, and picks the best shows to help you make your monthly decisions.

    Here’s a look at what’s coming to the various streaming services in October 2023, and what’s really worth the monthly subscription fee:

    Netflix ($6.99 a month for basic with ads, $15.49 standard with no ads, $19.99 premium with no ads)

    After a ho-hum past few months, Netflix
    NFLX,
    +0.33%

    is rolling out a more robust lineup in October. Which is nice, because no other streaming service is.

    After a two-year layoff, the French heist thriller series “Lupin” (Oct. 5) returns for its third season. Omar Sy stars as a master thief who’s now on the lam, and he carries the show largely on his charisma. It’s a fun one, and a welcome return for viewers.

    But the big-name show of the month is “The Fall of the House of Usher” (Oct. 12), from horror hit-maker Mike Flanagan (“The Haunting of Hill House,” “Midnight Mass”). The miniseries, based on Edgar Allan Poe’s classic story, combines Gothic horror with a modern twist, as the corrupt CEO of a family-owned and scandal-plagued pharmaceutical company is forced to face demons from his past as his family members keep dying, one by one, in increasingly gruesome ways. The sprawling cast includes Bruce Greenwood, Annabeth Gish, Carl Lumbly, Carla Gugino, Rahul Kohli, Mark Hamill, Henry Thomas and Mary McDonnell. This should be one to watch, if for nothing else than to finally see a Sackler-like family get their comeuppance.

    Also on the way: the seventh seasons of the raunchy animated adolescent comedy “Big Mouth” (Oct. 20) and the Spanish high school soap “Elite” (Oct. 20); “Pain Hustlers” (Oct. 27), a meh-looking satirical crime drama starring Emily Blunt and Chris Evans as scheming pharmaceutical reps; and the nature documentary “Life on Our Planet” (Oct. 25), narrated by Morgan Freeman.

    More: What’s new on Netflix in October 2023 — and what’s leaving

    And you may have missed it, but Netflix snuck in a new season of “The Great British Baking Show” at the end of September. New episodes stream every Tuesday, and feature new co-host Alison Hammond, replacing Matt Lucas, who always seemed out of place.

    Who’s Netflix for? Fans of buzz-worthy original shows and movies.

    Play, pause or stop? Play. Between some good-looking new shows, fresh eps of the “Great British Baking Show” and recent additions such as “Sex Education” (though its final season is underwhelming) and HBO’s classic “Band of Brothers,” Netflix is once again a must-have.

    Max ($9.99 a month with ads, or $15.99 with no ads)

    After a dismal September, Max has a better October lineup, with Season 2 of the beloved pirate comedy “Our Flag Means Death” (Oct. 5), starring Rhys Darby and Taika Waititi as wildly different ship captains involved in a star-crossed romance; Season 2 of “The Gilded Age” (Oct. 29), Julian Fellowes’ “Downton Abbey”-esque costume drama set in 1880s New York high society, with a sprawling cast that includes Carrie Coon, Cynthia Nixon, Christine Baranski, Morgan Spector and Louisa Jacobson; and the fourth and final season of the DC superhero dramedy “Doom Patrol” (Oct. 12).

    Notably, Warner Bros. Discovery’s
    WBD,
    +1.59%

    Max is launching its live-sports tier — the unfortunately named Bleacher Report Sports — on Oct. 5, just in time for the MLB playoffs and upcoming NBA season. The add-on tier will be free for all subscribers through February, when its price will shoot up to $9.99 a month.

    Also: What’s new on Max in October 2023 — and what’s leaving

    This is also your last chance to watch a bunch of AMC shows that are getting a two-month promotional run on Max: “Fear the Walking Dead” Seasons 1-7, “Anne Rice’s Interview with the Vampire” Season 1, “Dark Winds” Season 1, “Gangs of London” Seasons 1-2, “Ride with Norman Reedus” Seasons 1-5, “A Discovery of Witches” Seasons 1-3, and “Killing Eve” Seasons 1-4 will all leave Oct. 31. Do yourself a favor and at least watch “Dark Winds.”

    One more hidden gem to discover: Season 3 of the British rom-com “Starstruck,” which landed Sept. 28. It’s utterly charming and unwaveringly romantic, with literal LOL moments and some of the most swoon-worthy banter in recent years. Catch up with all three seasons, it’s an easy binge that’s well worth it.

    Who’s Max for? HBO fans and movie lovers. And now, unscripted TV fans too, with a slew of Discovery shows.

    Play, pause or stop? Pause and think it over. It’s an exceptionally weak month for streamers, but Max’s lineup — especially with the addition of live sports and its deep library — makes it one of the least weakest.

    Amazon’s Prime Video ($14.99 a month, or $8.99 without Prime membership)

    Prime Video has a fine lineup in October. Not great. Not terrible. But very OK.

    “Totally Killer” (Oct. 6) looks to be a cleverer-than-most spin on a horror trope, as Kiernan Shipka (“Mad Men”) stars as a 17-year-old who travels back in time to 1987 to stop a serial killer before he can start a slaying spree that terrorized her mother (Julie Bowen).

    Greg Daniels’ existential comedy “Upload” (Oct. 20) is back for its third season of rom-com exploits in a digital afterlife, thanks to uploaded consciousness. (Disclaimer: I liked Season 1, but can’t for the life of me remember if I ever watched Season 2, which doesn’t bode well, but perfectly fits this month’s “meh it’s OK” theme.)

    Meanwhile, Amazon’s
    AMZN,
    +0.90%

    free, ad-supported channel, Freevee, has the second season of “Bosch: Legacy” (Oct. 20), the “Bosch” spinoff starring Titus Welliver as a private investigator in L.A., while his daughter Maddie (Madison Lintz) charts her own path as a police officer. As gritty detective shows go, it’s solid.

    Prime Video also has a decent lineup of NFL Thursday Night Football“The Burial” (Oct. 13), a funeral-home drama movie starring Oscar-winners Jamie Foxx and Tommy Lee Jones; all 11 seasons of the classic sitcom “Frasier” (Oct. 1), just in time for the reboot on Paramount+; as well as new eps every week of “The Boys” spinoff “Gen V” and the season finale of “The Wheel of Time” (Oct 6).

    See more: Everything coming to Amazon’s Prime Video and Freevee in October 2023

    It’s also a good time to dig into Prime Video’s extensive library, before commercials come early next year. In an obnoxious move, rather than add an ad-supported tier at a lower price, Amazon will subject all subscribers to commercials — unless they pay an extra $3-a-month ransom. Commercials will be especially annoying on Prime’s more cinematic series, so watch great-looking shows like “I’m a Virgo,” “Dead Ringers” and “The English” interruption-free, while you still can.

    Who’s Prime Video for? Movie lovers, TV-series fans who value quality over quantity.

    Play, pause or stop? Pause. There’s no a compelling reason to start a subscription now, but if you already have one, there’s probably enough to watch.

    Disney+ ($7.99 a month with ads, $13.99 with no ads, starting Oct. 12)

    After a hiatus of more than two years, Marvel’s “Loki” (Oct. 5) is finally back for its second season. The new season finds the eponymous god of mischief (played by Tom Hiddleston) bouncing across the multiverse in a battle for free will while trying to elude agents of the mysterious Time Variant Authority. Season 1 of “Loki” was one of Marvel’s better TV adaptations, and hopes are high that Season 2 can recapture that sense of chaotic fun. Owen Wilson returns as TVA agent Mobius, and Oscar winner Ke Huy Quan (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”) joins the cast, which also features Jonathan Majors as big bad Kang the Conqueror, which is… problematic. Disney is reportedly still planning for Majors to play a key role in “Loki” and the next phase of “Avengers” movies despite his arrest on assault charges earlier this year, which prompted troubling allegations of past physical and emotional abuse toward women. (“Loki” had already finished filming prior to his arrest.)

    Disney also has “Goosebumps” (Oct. 13), about a group of high school friends fighting supernatural forces as they uncover long-buried secrets about their small town in this series adaptation of R.L. Stine’s hugely popular series of spooky novels. (It’ll also stream on Hulu.)

    The “Star Wars” spinoff “Ahsoka” has its season finale Oct. 3, while ABC’s “Dancing with the Stars” will stream every Tuesday.

    Who’s Disney+ for? Families with kids, hardcore “Star Wars” and Marvel fans. For people not in those groups, Disney’s
    DIS,
    +1.15%

     library can be lacking.

    Play, pause or stop? Pause. The price of ad-free Disney+ jumps by $3 a month starting Oct. 12 — how much do you or your family really want to watch “Loki” and “Goosebumps”? It’ll be worth it for some, but an opportune time to cancel for others.

    Hulu ($7.99 a month with ads, or $17.99 with no ads, starting Oct. 12)

    Hulu has been on a fantastic run since the start of summer, but all good things must end. And it happens to coincide with a $3-a-month hike to its ad-free subscription.

    October’s lineup is weak, and heavily weighed toward Halloween-themed fare, such as Season 2 of FX’s spinoff anthology “American Horror Stories” (Oct. 26); the Stephen King thrillers “Rose Red” (Oct. 1) and “The Boogeyman” (Oct. 5); the Starz horror series “Ash vs. Evil Dead” (Oct. 1); the body-horror movie “Appendage” (Oct. 2); and “Goosebumps” (Oct. 13), a live-action adaptation of R.L. Stine’s bestselling kids’ book series (which will also stream on Disney+).

    Non-horror shows include new seasons of Fox’s “The Simpsons,” “Family Guy” and “Bob’s Burgers” (all Oct. 2), and Season 2 of the comedy “Shorsey (Oct. 27), the “Letterkenny” spinoff series about minor-league hockey that has a surprising amount of heart to go with its absolutely filthy dialogue.

    For more: What’s coming to Hulu in October 2023 — and what’s leaving

    As an added bonus, all five seasons of ABC’s 1980s detective-agency rom-com “Moonlighting” (Oct. 10), starring Bruce Willis and Cybill Shepherd, will stream for the first time ever (legally at least). If I remember correctly, there were some really high highs but also some really low lows — but it’ll be worth checking out, for nostalgia if nothing else.

    There are also new eps every week of “The Golden Bachelor” and “Bachelor in Paradise,” the season finale of “Only Murders in the Building” (Oct. 3) and the series finale of “Archer” (Oct. 11). And if you missed it, all three seasons of “Reservation Dogs” are there and just begging to be watched, or rewatched. (It’s about as perfect as a TV series could ever be, and the recently concluded Season 3 is the best thing I’ve seen this year.)

    Who’s Hulu for? TV lovers. There’s a deep library for those who want older TV series and next-day streaming of many current network and cable shows.

    Play, pause or stop? Stop. If you’re on the ad tier, this month might be tolerable, but it’s certainly not worth $17.99.

    Paramount+ ($5.99 a month with ads, $11.99 a month with Showtime and no ads)

    Twenty years after ending its 11-season run (with 37 Emmy wins), the classic sitcom “Frasier” (Oct. 12) is back. Sort of. Kelsey Grammar returns in this revival as the pompous Dr. Frasier Crane, who’s moved back to Boston to be closer to his adult son (played by Jack Cutmore-Scott), who doesn’t necessarily want him there. The cast is mostly new, though Bebe Neuwirth (as Frasier’s ex-wife Lilith) and Peri Gilpin (his radio producer Roz) will reportedly guest star. David Hyde Pierce (Niles) and Jane Leeves (Daphne) will not return, however, which is a bummer since that’s where much of the original show’s laughs came from (John Mahoney, who played Frasier’s father Marty Crane, died in 2018). The jury’s out on this one — while in theory, it could be a refreshing update to a nostalgic favorite, the trailer is not encouraging.

    Paramount+ also has “Pet Sematary: Bloodlines” (Oct. 6), a creepy prequel to the 2019 horror reboot; “Fellow Travelers” (Oct. 27), a decades-spanning queer love story starring Matt Bomer and Jonathan Bailey; and Showtime’s courtroom drama “The Caine Mutiny Court-Martial” (Oct. 6), the late director William Friedkin’s last film, starring Keifer Sutherland, the late Lance Reddick and Jake Lacy.

    That’s on top of a live-sports lineup that includes SEC and Big Ten college football on Saturdays, NFL football every Sunday and UEFA Champions League soccer matches.

    Who’s Paramount+ for? Gen X cord-cutters who miss live sports and familiar Paramount Global
    PARA,
    +0.62%

     broadcast and cable shows.

    Play, pause or stop? Stop. There’s a good football lineup, at least.

    Apple TV+ ($6.99 a month)

    It’s another slow month for Apple
    AAPL,
    +0.30%
    ,
    highlighted by the miniseries “Lessons in Chemistry” (Oct. 13), based on Bonnie Garmus’ bestselling novel. Brie Larson stars as a woman in the 1950s whose dreams of becoming a scientist are scuttled by male chauvinism, and instead becomes the host of a TV cooking show, where she inspires housewives and fights the patriarchy. Apple is getting a reputation for getting big-name stars for prestige-type series, only for the shows to fizzle out and quickly be forgotten (like “Mosquito Coast,” “Hello Tomorrow” and “Dear Edward,” for starters). I have yet to see any marketing for this series, and it would not be a surprise for someone to ask six months from now: “Wait, Brie Larson was in an Apple show?”

    There’s also a new documentary from Errol Morris, “The Pigeon Tunnel” (Oct. 20), about the life of spy-turned-writer David Cornwell, aka John le Carré; and “The Enfield Poltergeist” (Oct. 27), a four-part docuseries about the supposed real-life haunting that inspired “The Conjuring 2.”

    Apple’s biggest title will be on Oct. 20 in movie theaters, with the wide release of Martin Scorsese’s “Killers of the Flower Moon,” the spectacular-looking historical drama about a series of mysterious killings of Osage tribal members in Oklahoma in the 1920s, starring Leonardo DiCaprio, Lily Gladstone and Robert De Niro. There’s no streaming release date yet, but expect it to land on Apple TV+ after its theatrical run, possibly in November but more likely in December.

    There are also new episodes every week of “The Morning Show,” “The Changeling” (season finale Oct. 13) and “Invasion” (season finale Oct. 25).

    Who’s Apple TV+ for? It offers a little something for everyone, but not necessarily enough for anyone — although it’s getting there.

    Play, pause or stop? Stop. Apple’s had a great year, but there’s just not a lot on right now. But there’s good stuff coming in November (Season 4 of “For All Mankind”) and December (Season 3 of “Slow Horses”).

    Remember, you can get three free months of Apple TV+ if you buy a new iPhone, iPad or Mac. Strategically, if you buy an iPhone 15, and wait a bit to redeem the free trial, you’ll want it to extend into January.

    Peacock (Premium for $5.99 a month with ads, or $11.99 a month with no ads)

    It’s all about horror and sports for Peacock this October.

    On the scary side, there’s Season 2 of the werewolf rom-com “Wolf Like Me” (Oct. 19), starring Josh Gad and Isla Fisher; “Five Nights at Freddy’s” (Oct. 27), a horror movie based on the videogame about a troubled security guard who starts working the night shift at a cursed pizza parlor, starring Josh Hutcherson and Matthew Lillard; and the true-crime anthology “John Carpenter’s Suburban Screams” (Oct. 13).

    On the sports side, Peacock has the Rugby World Cup (through Oct. 28), NFL Sunday Night Football, Big Ten and Notre Dame college football, English Premier League soccer, and a full slate of golf, motorsports and horse racing.

    Meanwhile, the “John Wick” prequel miniseries “The Continental” ends Oct. 6.

    Who’s Peacock for? Live sports and next-day shows from Comcast’s
    CMCSA,
    -1.16%

     NBCUniversal are the main draw, but there’s a good library of shows and movies.

    Play, pause or stop? Stop. The live-sports offerings are the only lure.

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  • Apple says it will fix app software problems blamed for making iPhone 15 models too hot to handle

    Apple says it will fix app software problems blamed for making iPhone 15 models too hot to handle

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    Apple Inc. is blaming a software bug and other issues tied to popular apps such as Instagram and Uber for causing its recently released iPhone 15 models to heat up and spark complaints about becoming too hot to handle.

    The Cupertino, Calif., company
    AAPL,
    +0.30%

    said Saturday that it is working on an update to the iOS17 system that powers the iPhone 15 lineup to prevent the devices from becoming uncomfortably hot and is working with apps that are running in ways “causing them to overload the system.”

    Instagram, owned by Meta Platforms
    META,
    -1.23%
    ,
    modified its social media app earlier this week to prevent it from heating up the device on the latest iPhone operating system.

    Read: The Magnificent Seven could be considered the messy seven after a ‘meh’ third quarter

    Uber
    UBER,
    -0.33%

    and other apps such as the video game Asphalt 9 are still in the process of rolling out their updates, Apple said. It didn’t specify a timeline for when its own software fix would be issued but said no safety issues should prevent iPhone 15 owners from using their devices while awaiting the update.

    “We have identified a few conditions which can cause iPhone to run warmer than expected,” Apple in a short statement provided to The Associated Press after media reports detailed overheating complaints that are peppering online message boards.

    The Wall Street Journal amplified the worries in a story citing the overheating problem in its own testing of the new iPhones, which went on sale a week ago.

    Read: Here’s what Apple’s iPhone 15 says about the world

    It’s not unusual for new iPhones to get uncomfortably warm during the first few days of use or when they are being restored with backup information stored in the cloud — issues that Apple already flags for users. The devices also can get hot when using apps such as video games and augmented reality technology that require a lot of processing power, but the heating issues with the iPhone 15 models have gone beyond those typical situations.

    In its acknowledgement, Apple stressed that the trouble isn’t related to the sleek titanium casing that houses the high-end iPhone 15 Pro and iPhone 15 Pro Max instead of the stainless steel used on older smartphones.

    Apple also dismissed speculation that the overheating problem in the new models might be tied to a shift from its proprietary Lightning charging cable to the more widely used USB-C port that allowed it to comply with a mandate issued by European regulators.

    Although Apple expressed confidence that the overheating issue can be quickly fixed with the upcoming software updates, the problem still could dampen sales of its marquee product at time when the company has faced three consecutive quarters of year-over-year declines in overall sales.

    The downturn has affected iPhone sales, which fell by a combined 4% in the nine months covered by Apple’s past three fiscal quarters compared with a year earlier.

    Apple is trying to pump up its sales in part by raising the starting price for its top-of-the-line iPhone 15 Pro Max to $1,200, an increase of $100, or 9%, from last year’s comparable model.

    Investor worries about Apple’s uncharacteristic sales funk already have wiped out more than $300 billion in shareholder wealth since the company’s market value closed at $3 trillion for the first time in late June.

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  • Why stocks are likely to be especially volatile this October

    Why stocks are likely to be especially volatile this October

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    The U.S. stock market has been volatile in September. Brace yourself for October.

    September has the reputation of being the worst month for the stock market, but October far and away is the most volatile month of the year — as you can see from the accompanying chart. So if this October follows the historical averages, the stock market won’t lose as much as it has so far in September but investors will still feel whipped around.

    You might think October’s historical volatility can be traced to the U.S. market crashes that occurred in 1929 and 1987, each of which occurred during that month. But you’d be wrong: October remains at the top of the volatility rankings even if those two years are removed from the sample. Nor is there any trend over time in October’s place in those rankings: If we divide the period since the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA
    was created in 1896 into two periods, October is the most volatile in both the first and second halves.

    Why would October be the most volatile month? I’m not aware of any plausible theory, and that normally would be a reason not to expect the historical pattern to continue. But not in this case.

    That’s because an expectation of volatility can itself lead to greater volatility. So the fact that past Octobers have been so volatile is a reason to expect this coming October to also be a particularly choppy month on Wall Street.

    If so, our job is not to get spooked by October’s volatility into going to cash. Of course, you may have other reasons why you might want to reduce your equity exposure. But if you were otherwise wanting to be heavily invested in equities, fasten your seat belt and hold on.

    Mark Hulbert is a regular contributor to MarketWatch. His Hulbert Ratings tracks investment newsletters that pay a flat fee to be audited. He can be reached at mark@hulbertratings.com

    More: Wall Street analysts expect the S&P 500 to rise 19% over the next 12 months. Here are their 10 favorite stocks.

    Plus: Let’s debunk the bears’ top arguments against further stock market gains

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  • Government shutdown looms: Here’s how to help preserve your investment portfolio.  

    Government shutdown looms: Here’s how to help preserve your investment portfolio.  

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    The economic impact of a shutdown and the potential implications on your portfolio depend largely on how long the shutdown lasts.

    The potential for a U.S. government shutdown can raise alarm for investors and send the phone of a financial adviser like me ringing off the hook. Headlines in front of them, my clients are increasingly asking about potential portfolio implications and how they should respond.

    There is certainly a measured response, which includes not overreacting to the headlines and sticking to your long-term investment plan, and I’ll show you how to draw it.

    Government shutdown explained

    First, it’s important to understand what is happening. During a shutdown, the federal government will suspend all services that are deemed nonessential until a funding agreement is reached. This is much different than a default — which can happen when the government can’t pay its debts or satisfy its obligations. A default can have significant ramifications on U.S. creditworthiness and in turn, the global financial system. You may recall lawmakers’ discussions earlier this year regarding raising the debt ceiling — a solution to avoid defaulting. 

    A U.S. default has never happened, but shutdowns have occurred more than 20 times since 1976. Unlike a default, a shutdown does not affect the government’s ability to pay its obligations, and many critical government services, like Social Security may continue. When weighing the two, one can presume that markets may react more negatively to a default.   

    Markets may experience heightened volatility in response to the shutdown uncertainty, but markets do not react consistently to the news. In the past we have seen U.S. stocks — as measured by the S&P 500
    SPX
    — finish positively after more than half of these shutdowns. Results are similar for fixed-income securities, as we’ve seen an even split between positive and negative returns in the bond markets in shutdowns since 1976. 

    Of course, all investing is subject to risk, past performance is not a guarantee for future returns, and the performance of an index is not an exact representation of any particular investment. 

    The economic impact of a shutdown — and the potential implications on your portfolio — depend largely on how long the shutdown lasts. The longer the shutdown, the more Americans experience dampened economic activity from things like loss of furloughed federal workers’ contribution to GDP, the delay in federal spending on goods and services, and the reduction in aggregate demand (which lowers private-sector activity). 

    Read: Government shutdown: Analysts warn of ‘perhaps a long one lasting into the winter’

    A measured response 

    A government shutdown is just one of many factors, both positive and negative, that can cause fluctuation in the market, so it’s important to treat it just as you would other fluctuations.

    With so many variables, it’s impossible to precisely predict the effects the shutdown will have or determine how long it will last. This can seem scary for many, so it’s important to remember your long-term financial plan and focus on the factors you can control.  

    First, do not try to time the market. Doing so based on short-term events is never a good idea, and volatility is unpredictable. Even if the markets fall, we don’t know when they might recover. If you make an emotionally charged decision, you run the risk of missing out on potentially substantial market gains. 

    Instead, focus on the following: align your asset allocation with your risk tolerance; control your costs; adopt realistic expectations; hold a broadly diversified portfolio and stay disciplined. Doing so can help you weather any form of market uncertainty, including a shutdown.

    Stick to healthy financial habits

    In addition to not making any sudden moves in your investment portfolio, now is a suitable time to make sure you are keeping up with healthy financial habits, especially if you are a federal employee facing a furlough. This can look like readjusting your budget based on your current needs, keeping high-interest debt to a minimum, paying the minimum on all debt to keep your credit score in good standing and continuing to save.

    Remember, using your emergency fund to navigate tight times is exactly what you have saved for and tapping it in this instance is considered a healthy financial habit. Just be sure to replenish it when you have the funds to do so. As a good practice, Vanguard recommends having three- to six months of expenses saved in readily accessible investments.

    With a level, long-term approach and a personalized financial plan, you can be prepared for this potential storm and the inevitable ones to come. 

    Lauren Wybar is a senior financial adviser with Vanguard Personal Advisor. 

    More: Bill Ackman says Treasury yields are going higher in a hurry, and that investors should shun U.S. government debt

    Plus: Social Security checks will still come if there’s a shutdown. But there are other immediate threats to America’s benefits.

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  • SmileDirectClub’s stock plummets 85% after Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing

    SmileDirectClub’s stock plummets 85% after Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing

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    SmileDirectClub Inc. shares plummeted in the extended session Friday after the company said it had voluntarily filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection as founders seek to recapitalize the teeth-straightening business.

    SmileDirectClub shares SDC, which had been halted while up 0.9% in after-hours trading pending news, promptly dropped as much as 85% when trading in the stock reopened.

    The…

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  • Netflix officially ends DVD rentals. This is the movie inside the final red envelope.

    Netflix officially ends DVD rentals. This is the movie inside the final red envelope.

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    Netflix
    NFLX,
    +0.33%

    has officially ended its DVD-delivery service, and will allow all DVD.com subscribers to keep their discs after Friday, Sept. 29, for free.

    The streaming company announced on Friday that the last DVD the company sent out via an iconic red envelope was the 2010 film “True Grit.” DVD.com, through which Netflix has operated its legacy by-mail service, now redirects to Netflix’s primary website.

    What’s Worth Streaming: How to maximize your streaming in October 2023, and why Netflix is all you really need

    Netflix posted the following message about the end of its DVD business:

    “In 1998, we delivered our first DVD. This morning, we shipped our last. For 25 years, we redefined how people watched films and series at home, and shared the excitement as they opened their mailboxes to our iconic red envelopes. It’s the end of an era, but the DVD business built our foundation for the years to come – giving members unprecedented choice and control, a wide variety of titles to choose from and the freedom to watch as much as they want. Today, we wanted to take the opportunity to thank you for watching.”

    Despite Netflix’s primary business as a streamer, the company has still been delivering DVDs, aka “digital video discs” or “digital versatile discs,” to consumers on DVD.com. Like its streaming model, its DVD delivery service has different plan types based on customers’ needs.

    DVD.com has multiple plan offerings just like Netflix’s streaming platform.


    Netflix

    The DVD service generated $145.7 million in revenue last year, which translated into somewhere between 1.1 million and 1.3 million subscribers, based on the average prices paid by customers, according to the Associated Press. Netflix made $31.6 billion in revenue in 2022.

    Netflix announced it was planning to shut down its DVD-by-mail rental service — the service upon which Netflix was founded prior to the rise of video streaming — back in April.

    “Our goal has always been to provide the best service for our members, but as the business continues to shrink that’s going to become increasingly difficult,” co–Chief Executive Ted Sarandos said in a blog post titled “Netflix DVD — The Final Season.”

    See also: As Amazon Prime Video adds commercials, here’s how streaming services match up on pricing

    Netflix’s DVD business has dwindled in the past decade from more than $900 million in revenue in 2013.

    After years of declining revenue, Netflix Inc. announced that it will cease renting DVDs by mail.


    Uncredited

    Netflix launched as NetFlix.com in 1998, a direct-to-consumer DVD-rental company and didn’t debut its streaming service until 2007.

    Shares of Netflix are up more than 60% in the last 12 months.

    The Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers, which is made up of major movie studios and streaming companies including Netflix, Disney
    DIS,
    +1.15%

    and Sony Pictures
    SONY,
    -0.45%
    ,
    and the Writer’s Guild of America agreed to end their months-long strike this week. Hollywood actors, represented by SAG-AFTRA, are still striking, although the union is expected to meet with the AMPTP next week.

    Netflix did not respond to MarketWatch’s request for comment.

    Read on (July 2023): Netflix criticized for posting AI jobs paying up to $900,000 while writers and actors are on strike

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  • Bed Bath & Beyond Shares Have Finally Been Extinguished

    Bed Bath & Beyond Shares Have Finally Been Extinguished

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    Bed Bath & Beyond Shares Have Finally Been Extinguished

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  • Psst: Here’s why Google’s antitrust trial against the Department of Justice isn’t being talked about much

    Psst: Here’s why Google’s antitrust trial against the Department of Justice isn’t being talked about much

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    Google’s top executives have long established a reputation of saying as little as possible on most topics: Earnings calls. Product development plans. Management moves.

    Legal matters are certainly on the list, as the company’s antitrust trial with the Justice Department concludes its third week. The public is barred from listening to the 10-week federal trial, and reporters often encounter a courtroom sealed to the public.

    Secrecy around the nonjury trial belies the magnitude of the case, the biggest of its kind in tech, if not American business, since the DoJ tangled with Microsoft Corp.
    MSFT,
    +0.67%

    in the 1990s and early 2000s. After years of investigation, the Justice Department claims Google used contracts worth billions of dollars with Apple Inc.
    AAPL,
    +0.30%

    and other phone makers to elbow aside competing search engines that could lead to changes in Google’s business practices — even a breakup of the tech giant.

    Google says it makes the best product, and vendors have a choice to work with other search-engine providers. In his opening statement, Google attorney John Schmidtlein said companies and consumers use Google’s popular search engine “because it delivers value to them, not because they have to.”

    Asked by MarketWatch to comment further, a company spokesman declined.

    Read more: Google spent billions to build an illegal monopoly, Justice Department says as trial gets under way

    Alphabet Inc.
    GOOGL,
    -1.10%

    GOOG,
    -0.96%
    ,
    Google’s parent company, has steadfastly redacted information about the contracts at issue in the case, citing confidential company information, and Google’s lawyers — as well as those at Apple — have consistently asked to seal the courtroom. Before opening statements started on Sept. 12, nearly two-thirds of Google’s motions and responses in the case were sealed, according to the New York Times.

    At the same time, criticism has rained on U.S. District Judge Amit Mehta, who has deferred to requests by Google and interested parties like Apple to hold testimony behind closed doors. (On Tuesday, Mehta countered he was relying on federal attorneys to resist persistent attempts by Google and other tech companies to seal the courtroom. He later pushed lawyers to ask more questions in public and wanted to unseal closed-session testimony.)

    “A judge’s job isn’t to simply accept a party’s claim that public access to a trial would cause the sky to fall,” The Freedom of the Press Foundation said in a blog post Wednesday.

    A cone of silence around such a historic case that could lead to changes to Google’s business practices or a breakup of the company is not surprising, given what is at stake.

    “A trial should be open to the public, but there is a balancing act in affording companies some sort of privacy,” lawyer Abiel Garcia said in an interview. Access to documents does disclose how a company thinks. There is a tension here in how Google wants its users to be transparent about their data, but doesn’t tell you what they are doing.”

    Garcia, who presented in a preliminary injunction hearing before Mehta in 2015, said the judge has done an admirable job of respecting Google’s corporate secrets while gradually encouraging more public questioning and disclosures.

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  • Blue Apron notches triple-digit percentage gain while Nike rallies after earnings beat and boosts Foot Locker stock

    Blue Apron notches triple-digit percentage gain while Nike rallies after earnings beat and boosts Foot Locker stock

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    Here are the day’s biggest movers:

    Stock gainers:

    Blue Apron Holding Inc.’s stock
    APRN,
    +133.52%

    rocketed by 134% after food-delivery start-up Wonder said it would acquire the company for $13 a share or about $103 million, just a fraction of its $2 billion in 2017 when the company went public.

    Shares of Nike
    NKE,
    +5.96%

    rallied 7% as the apparel maker, which is also part of the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    reported better-than-expected earnings, news that also lifted shares of European rivals including Adidas
    ADS,
    +6.22%
    .

    Foot Locker
    FL,
    +2.71%
    ,
    which sells athletic apparel, saw its stock rise by 3%.

    Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc.‘s stock
    WBA,
    +6.39%

    rose 6.2% as a top gainer among the Nasdaq 100
    NDX
    as stocks reacted with gains to the latest inflation data.

    Stock decliners:

    Bionomics 
    BNOX,
    -11.87%
    ,
    whose shares jumped 242% on Thursday after reporting positive results from a mid-stage trial of a treatment for post-traumatic stress disorder, fell 8% in regular trade.

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  • Adidas and Puma shares rally after Nike results

    Adidas and Puma shares rally after Nike results

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    Investors bid up Nike’s rivals Adidas and Puma in early European markets action, after their U.S. peer beat first-quarter earnings forecasts.

    Adidas shares
    ADS,
    +6.09%

    jumped 6%, and Puma stock
    PUM,
    +6.22%

    rose 5%, after Nike
    NKE,
    +0.23%

    reported better margins than forecast even though revenue met expectation.

    JD Sports Fashion
    JD,
    +5.04%

    shares also jumped 6% in London.

    Analysts at JPMorgan led by Olivia Townsend said the read-across to the European sporting goods sector was better-than-expected demand in North America, a solid performance in Europe, expansion in gross margins and ongoing improvements in inventory levels.

    The major European indexes also advanced on Friday, with the U.K. FTSE 100
    UK:UKX,
    German DAX
    DX:DAX
    and French CAC 40
    FR:PX1
    each sporting gains around 0.7%.

    U.S. stock futures
    ES00,
    +0.42%

    also edged higher ahead of the release of the PCE price index report later. The S&P 500
    SPX
    ended Thursday with a 0.6% rise.

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  • Tesla’s quarterly deliveries, profit seen lower by Citi

    Tesla’s quarterly deliveries, profit seen lower by Citi

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    Analysts at Citi on Thursday dialed down their expectations for Tesla Inc.’s third-quarter deliveries and profit, saying they based their new numbers on China sales, global registration data and an implied production pace for the EV maker.

    Tesla
    TSLA,
    +2.44%

    and General Motors Co.
    GM,
    +2.50%

    are scheduled to report third-quarter vehicle sales next week, while Ford Motor Co.
    F,
    +1.37%

    and a few others are slated to report September sales.

    Earlier this week, a Deutsche Bank analyst warned that there was “meaningful downside risk” to current 2024 Tesla projections due to limited volume growth, and cut his price target on Tesla stock.

    J.D. Power on Thursday estimated another double-digit gain for U.S. new-car sales in September. GM, Ford and Stellantis NV
    STLA,
    +2.45%

    are facing a strike affecting some of its assembly plants and, in the case of GM and Stellantis, auto-parts distribution centers.

    The Citi analysts, led by Itay Michaeli, said they trimmed their Tesla quarterly sales estimates to 450,000 vehicles, from a previous expectation of 468,500 vehicles.

    See also: Tesla sued for racial discrimination, retaliation by EEOC

    They lowered their forecast for adjusted per-share earnings to 75 cents in the quarter, from a prior estimate of an adjusted EPS of 81 cents for the quarter.

    The Citi’s expectations compare with FactSet consensus of Tesla deliveries of 462,000 vehicles in the quarter, and consensus around an adjusted EPS of 79 cents for the quarter.

    “We will revisit our model post the [third-quarter] delivery report,” the Citi analysts said. They kept the equivalent of a hold rating on the stock.

    The update on the sales estimates was based on recent weekly China data “in part reflecting the Model 3 refresh transition,” as the compact sedan in some parts of the world is getting a minor update; the latest available global Tesla registration data; and their observations on production rate and “inventory discounting, with our estimates assuming some [quarter-on-quarter] de-stocking,” the analysts said.

    Given Tesla’s production pace and the Model 3 changes, “we see a greater range of delivery outcomes vs. typical quarters,” they said.

    Tesla shares have doubled so far this year, compared with gains of around 12% for the S&P 500 index
    SPX.

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  • Nike stock rises as profit beats estimates and inventories fall

    Nike stock rises as profit beats estimates and inventories fall

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    Nike Inc. on Thursday reported a fiscal first-quarter profit that beat expectations, although revenue came up just shy of Wall Street’s estimates, amid a drop in sales for Converse sneakers.

    Shares
    NKE,
    +0.23%

    were up 1.4% after hours.

    The athletic-gear giant reported fiscal first-quarter net income of $1.45 billion, or 94 cents a share, compared with $1.47 billion, or 93 cents a share, in the same quarter last year. Revenue crept higher to $12.94 billion, compared with $12.69 billion in the prior-year quarter.

    Analysts polled by FactSet expected Nike to report earnings per share of 76 cents, on revenue of $13 billion.

    Gross margin fell 10 basis points to 44.2%, weighed by higher product costs and a tougher foreign-exchange backdrop, and offset by “strategic pricing actions.” The company’s inventories fell 10%, as Wall Street seeks progress on efforts by businesses to narrow down their stockpiles of unsold goods.

    Sales for Converse shoes were $588 million, down 9%, amid weaker demand in North America. Growth in Asia, however, acted as a counterweight to that decline.

    Nike reported earnings as stiff competition — from the likes of Adidas
    ADDYY,
    -0.51%

    and On Holding
    ONON,
    +0.27%

    — and weaker demand for sneakers and clothing keeps prices lower. While analysts say Nike stands to benefit from an enduring shift toward more casual gear, recent outlooks from sporting-goods chains like Foot Locker Inc.
    FL,
    +0.65%

    and Dick’s Sporting Goods Inc.
    DKS,
    +0.38%

    have been more downbeat.

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