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  • CFPB: What it does and why its future is in question | CNN Business

    CFPB: What it does and why its future is in question | CNN Business


    New York
    CNN
     — 

    The US Supreme Court decided this week to hear a case that will consider the constitutionality of funding for the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and, in doing so, test the constraints of US regulators’ power. The case would be heard in the fall, with a decision likely by summer 2024.

    But what is the CFPB? How does its work affect your wallet? And why is its future potentially at risk?

    The agency was created after the 2008 financial meltdown, as part of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act. That law was passed in the wake of the 2007 subprime mortgage crisis and the Great Recession that followed.

    The broad purpose of the CFPB is to protect consumers from financial abuses and to serve as the central agency for consumer financial protection authorities.

    Prior to its creation, as the agency notes on its site, “[c]onsumer financial protection had not been the primary focus of any federal agency, and no agency had effective tools to set the rules for and oversee the whole market.”

    The CFPB has regulatory authority over providers of many types of financial products and services, including credit cards, banking accounts, loan servicing, credit reporting and consumer debt collection.

    It is charged with implementing and enforcing consumer protection laws, making rules and issuing guidance for consumer financial institutions. And it is the place consumers can go to lodge complaints about financial products and services.

    Importantly, Dodd-Frank also gave the agency new authority to determine whether any given consumer financial product or service is unfair, deceptive or abusive and therefore unlawful.

    While there are critics of the agency’s current structure and funding, it has saved consumers money, made it easier for them to seek redress and to get better clarity and more tailored responses from companies when they have a problem with their accounts, loans or credit reports.

    “It has completely changed the consumer financial marketplace. Overall it has had a tremendous impact on making it more fair and transparent,” said Lauren Saunders, associate director of the National Consumer Law Center.

    For instance, the CFPB has taken action against bank overdraft policies. “Arguably, the focus on overdraft practices has led some banks to eliminate or reduce their overdraft fees,” said Christine Hines, legislative director of the National Association of Consumer Advocates.

    And it has gone after institutions for saddling consumers with pointless products, excessive fees and punitive terms.

    Both Hines and Saunders made a special note of CFPB’s actions against Wells Fargo, after the agency found the bank had been engaging in multiple abusive and unlawful consumer practices across several financial products between 2011 and 2022 — from auto loans to mortgage loans to bank accounts.

    Last month, the agency required the bank to pay more than $2 billion to customers who were harmed by such practices, plus a $1.7 billion fine that will go into a relief fund for victims.

    “More than 16 million accounts at Wells Fargo were subject to their illegal practices, including misapplied payments, wrongful foreclosures, and incorrect fees and interest charges,” the agency said in a blog post.

    In the area of mortgages, “CFPB has written rules to implement new protections so that mortgage lenders don’t make loans with tricks and traps that lead people to lose their homes,” Saunders said.

    It also has created other safeguards, including rules on how service providers should communicate with borrowers who want to find alternatives to foreclosure, Hines noted.

    Currently, the agency is in the midst of an effort to curb excessive or “junk” fees on a range of consumer financial products, such as credit card late fees.

    Critics of the CFPB have been trying for years to limit its power and independence, attacking the way the agency is structured and funded. Like federal banking regulators, its funding is not determined by lawmakers in Congress as part of the annual appropriations process. Rather, it gets its money from the Federal Reserve System’s earnings.

    “This nontraditional funding source limits congressional oversight of the agency and is the subject of legal challenges,” according to the Congressional Research Service.

    The latest challenge — arising from a federal appeals court ruling that CFPB’s funding violates the Constitution’s Appropriations Clause and separation of powers — is what the Supreme Court will take up in its October term.

    While it’s impossible to predict how the justices will rule, should they decide to uphold the appeals court ruling, that will put in doubt how the agency will be funded going forward, and whether it can continue to function effectively.

    It’s also unclear whether the agency’s actions and rule-making over the past 11 years would be invalidated, nor what impact it would have on banks and other financial institutions that have set up systems to be in compliance with CFPB rules and safe harbors.

    “The agency would be unable to do anything if the funding is invalidated. And prior rules could be challenged as the agency did not have a legal funding source that it could use to write those rules,” Cowen Washington Research Group analyst Jaret Seiberg said in a note to clients.

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  • One of China’s richest women takes over for her father at real estate developer Country Garden | CNN Business

    One of China’s richest women takes over for her father at real estate developer Country Garden | CNN Business


    Hong Kong
    CNN
     — 

    One of China’s richest women has fully taken over Country Garden, a top real estate developer, after her father resigned, which added to a string of prominent entrepreneurs retreating from their posts during a historic downturn in the property market.

    Yang Huiyan succeeded her father Yang Guoqiang as chairman of the company that he founded, according to a Wednesday filing to the Hong Kong stock exchange, which said the appointment took effect the same day.

    Yang, 68, also known as Yeung Kwok Keung in Cantonese, had tendered his resignation from the position of chairman “due to age,” the statement said.

    The elder Yang was a farmer and construction worker before he founded Country Garden in 1992. In little more than a decade, he grew the firm into one of the largest real estate developers in the country.

    The company boasted a record-setting $1.7 billion IPO in Hong Kong in 2007. Last year, Country Garden was China’s No 1 developer by sales, which reached $67 billion.

    The younger Yang has served as a co-chairman of the company since 2018 and jointly managed the day-to-day operations with her father.

    Yang Huiyan, center, attends an alumni event in the city of Foshan in Guangdong province in June 2016.

    Yang, 41, had a net worth of $9.2 billion as of Thursday, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. That placed her as China’s second richest woman, behind only Wu Yajun, the 59-year-old founder of Longfor Properties, who has a fortune of $9.7 billion.

    Yang Huiyan’s wealth comes mainly from her majority stake in Country Garden, which was largely transferred to her by her father in 2005, two years before the company’s IPO.

    Yang’s father resigned at a time when China’s property market is mired in a historic downturn.

    The real estate sector has been lurching from one crisis to another since 2020, when Beijing started cracking down on excessive borrowing by developers to rein in their high debt. A debt crisis hit the industry after Evergrande, the second largest property developer in China, suffered a severe cash crunch and defaulted on its debt in late 2021.

    Since then, a number of cash-strapped developers have sought protection from creditors.

    Country Garden’s stock price has lost more than half of its value in the past year.

    An aerial view of a residential project developed by Country Garden in Zhenjiang city in eastern China's Jiangsu province in October 2021.

    Home sales have plummeted alongside buyer confidence. Sentiment cooled even further last year after thousands of home buyers refused to continue paying mortgages on unfinished properties. The crash in the real estate market has dealt a blow to the finances of local governments, which rely heavily on land sales revenue.

    Authorities have shifted policy to rescue the industry, including easing restrictions on borrowing for developers and rolling out loans. But the recovery seems to be slow.

    Yang Guoqiang’s resignation is the latest in a string of departures by prominent property entrepreneurs.

    In November, Zhang Lei, founder and chairman of Modern Land, resigned from his positions at the company. Modern Land is a major developer based in Beijing building energy-saving homes throughout the country.

    In October, Wu Yajun, founder and chairwoman of Longfor Properties, stepped down due to health and age reasons, the company said.

    In September, Pan Shiyi and his wife Zhang Xin quit their roles as chairman and CEO of Soho China, a Beijing-based developer.

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  • UK house prices post sharpest fall since 2012 as high mortgage rates hurt | CNN Business

    UK house prices post sharpest fall since 2012 as high mortgage rates hurt | CNN Business


    London
    CNN
     — 

    UK house prices last month saw their biggest annual decline since November 2012, in the latest indication of the lasting pain that former Prime Minister Liz Truss’s ill-fated “mini” budget inflicted on Britain’s property market.

    The average price of a house fell 1.1% to £257,406 ($310,000) in February compared with a year earlier, taking UK house price growth into negative territory for the first time since June 2020, lender Nationwide said Wednesday.

    House prices have now declined for six months in a row and are 3.7% below their August 2022 peak, according to Nationwide’s index based on purchases involving a mortgage.

    “The recent run of weak house price data began with the financial market turbulence in response to the mini budget at the end of September last year,” Nationwide’s chief economist Robert Gardner said in a statement.

    “While financial market conditions normalized some time ago, housing market activity has remained subdued,” reflecting “the lingering impact on confidence, as well as the cumulative impact of the financial pressures that have been weighing on households for some time,” he added.

    The “mini” budget unveiled in September by Truss and then-finance minister Kwasi Kwarteng collapsed UK bond prices, sent borrowing costs soaring and sparked chaos in the mortgage market, as lenders withdrew hundreds of products, and deals fell through.

    “The economy has largely moved on from the mini budget, but the hangover for the UK housing market is more prolonged. We’re still seeing the effects of higher mortgage rates in the last three months of last year,” said Tom Bill, head of UK residential research at broker Knight Frank.

    Surging food and energy costs alongside feeble pay growth have also taken a bite out of household budgets, weighing on consumer confidence and housing market activity.

    “Inflation has continued to outpace wage growth, and mortgage rates remain significantly higher than the lows recorded in 2021,” said Gardner at Nationwide. “Even though consumer sentiment has improved in recent months, it is still languishing at levels prevailing during the depths of the financial crisis.”

    According to Bill, activity since Christmas has been “solid” but prices still have further to fall. He expects a decline of 5% this year.

    “House prices are 20% higher than they were before the pandemic and we expect around half of this to unwind over the next two years as buyers revise down their budgets,” Bill said.

    Mortgage rates have started to fall but recent stronger-than-expected UK economic data could lead the Bank of England to keep interest rates higher for longer, causing the downward drift in mortgage rates to “stall,” he told CNN. “That’s something we’re keeping an eye on.”

    — This is a developing story and will be updated.

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  • Pending home sales blew past expectations last month as buyers pounced on lower rates | CNN Business

    Pending home sales blew past expectations last month as buyers pounced on lower rates | CNN Business


    Washington, DC
    CNN
     — 

    Pending home sales crushed expectations in January, when mortgage rates dropped from recent highs of more than 7% and home buyers jumped at the opportunity.

    According to data released Monday from the National Association of Realtors, it was the largest monthly sales increase since June 2020.

    The pending sales index, based on signed contracts to buy a home rather than the final sales that are accounted for in existing home sales, rose by 8.1% from December to January, beating economists’ predictions for a rise of 1%. January’s jump followed a downwardly revised 1.1% rise in December.

    “Buyers responded to better affordability from falling mortgage rates in December and January,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at NAR.

    But since then, mortgage rates have risen again, climbing almost half a percentage point since the beginning of February, according to Freddie Mac.

    “Mortgage rates took a breath in December and January before resuming their climb in February, reaching 6.5%, the highest level of the new year,” said Hannah Jones, an economic data analyst at Realtor.com.

    At the current mortgage rate, the monthly payment on a median-priced home is about 45% higher — or $630 more — than it was at the same time last year, she said. “Many buyers are still holding off, waiting to see if prices or rates give a bit before getting into the market.”

    Last year’s persistent increase in both mortgage rates and home prices pushed many would-be home purchasers out of the market, said Jones. This resulted in a slowing of new homes in the building pipeline and fewer sellers listing their homes, which limited options for buyers still in the market.

    “New listings were at the lowest level in the last six years in January as sellers stayed on the sidelines, waiting to see buyers return, before placing their homes for sale,” said Jones. “However, the first month of the year brought glimmers of hope as year-over-year declines in both existing and new home sales slowed, and buyer sentiment improved slightly.”

    While home sales were down by 24.1% from the still-hot market of a year ago, activity appears to be bottoming out in the first quarter of this year, before incremental improvements will occur, Yun said.

    “An annual gain in home sales will not occur until 2024,” said Yun. “Meanwhile, home prices will be steady in most parts of the country with a minor change in the national median home price.”

    All regions saw a month-to-month increase in pending home sales, with the Northeast up 6%, the Midwest up 7.9%, the South up 8.3% and the West up 10.1%.

    “An extra bump occurred in the West region because of lower home prices, while gains in the South were due to stronger job growth in that region,” Yun said.

    Home prices are dropping fastest in areas where prices ran up the most in the frenzied market of the past few years.

    But overall, the number of home sales are expected to drop this year, according to NAR’s forecast.

    NAR anticipates the economy will continue to add jobs throughout this year and next, with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate steadily dropping to an average of 6.1% in 2023 and 5.4% in 2024.

    Even with an improving interest rate environment and job gains, Yun still expects annual existing-home sales to drop about 11% this year from last year, before jumping up about 18% in 2024. NAR projects new-home sales will fall about 4% this year compared with last year before surging nearly 20% in 2024.

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  • Economists’ crystal balls are growing cloudier. But they still expect a recession | CNN Business

    Economists’ crystal balls are growing cloudier. But they still expect a recession | CNN Business


    Minneapolis
    CNN
     — 

    The US economy is confusing: Jobs are surging. Inflation has been cooling but still running relatively hot. Gas prices are on the rebound. Consumers keep spending, and their confidence is growing. But holiday sales were tepid. Corporate layoffs are mounting. Company earnings aren’t stellar. And mortgage rates are ticking higher.

    In a time when the economic data has delivered mixed messages or flat out busted expectations, economists’ predictions for the year ahead are growing increasingly opaque.

    The National Association for Business Economics’ latest survey, released Monday, shows a “significant divergence” among respondents about where they think the US economy is heading in 2023, the organization’s president said.

    “Estimates of inflation-adjusted gross domestic product or real GDP, inflation, labor market indicators, and interest rates are all widely diffused, likely reflecting a variety of opinions on the fate of the economy — ranging from recession to soft landing to robust growth,” Julia Coronado, NABE’s president, said in a statement.

    Nearly 60% of survey respondents said they believe the US had a more than 50% shot of entering a recession in the next 12 months.

    When such a recession would start was another matter: 28% said first quarter, 33% said second quarter, and 21% said third quarter.

    As the Federal Reserve’s battle against high inflation continues to loom large, economists anticipate that key inflation gauges will slow this year, landing around 2.7% to 3% in 2023 and inching closer to the 2% target by 2024.

    Creating some uncertainty among economists, however, is what the Fed might do during that time as well as the potential effect from external factors.

    “Panelists’ views are split regarding how high the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates, how long rates might stay at the peak, when cuts would begin, and what would signal the central bank’s actions on each of these fronts,” Dana M. Peterson, NABE Outlook Survey chair, and chief economist at the Conference Board, said in the report. “Respondents are also highly concerned but divided in their opinions regarding the consequences of other matters that might affect the US economy, including the impact of China’s reopening on global inflation and the looming debt ceiling.”

    In terms of the labor market, which remains strong and tight, panelists’ median projections for monthly payroll growth this year was 102,000, a significant upward revision from projections in December for 76,000 jobs per month.

    NABE economists said they expect unemployment to increase, but the majority doubt it’ll exceed 5%.

    On the housing front, they expect home prices and new home construction to continue to fall this year, projecting that housing starts could see their largest decline since 2009.

    But they don’t anticipate the downturn to swing into “bust” territory. A mere 2% of respondents said that a “housing market bust” was the greatest downside risk to the US economy in 2023.

    Instead 51% of respondents said the biggest downside risk was too much monetary tightening. Trailing far behind in second was the broadening of war in Ukraine, with 12%.

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  • No. 2 at USDA, who led efforts to remedy historical racial discrimination, set to leave department | CNN Politics

    No. 2 at USDA, who led efforts to remedy historical racial discrimination, set to leave department | CNN Politics


    Washington
    CNN
     — 

    Jewel Bronaugh, the No. 2 person at the US Department of Agriculture and the first Black woman in the position, will leave the department on Tuesday after a two-year tenure in which she led agency efforts to diversify its workforce and provide relief to farmers of color who say they have been discriminated against over the years.

    Bronaugh announced last month that she was leaving the agency in order to spend more time with her family. Xochitl Torres Small, the under secretary for rural development, has been nominated to succeed her.

    Along with helping steer a department that boasts 29 agencies and more than 100,000 employees across the country, Bronaugh has played a central role in the USDA’s efforts to remedy decades-long discrimination that has impacted farmers and ranchers of color. Most notably, she has co-chaired an independent commission that has examined the USDA’s policies and programs for factors that have contributed to historic discrimination against farmers of color and identify disparities, inequity and discrimination across the agency.

    “I understood as a Black woman, coming into the role as deputy secretary, the weight that went with that. The responsibility that went with that. The people who for years have not been able to get resources from USDA. The history that that has had on farmers and landowners and people who live in rural communities, I knew that I had a responsibility,” Bronaugh explained in an interview with CNN.

    “I knew coming in that there was a lot of work to be done and I was going to have to be real to that commitment, not only to everyone that USDA serves but specifically as a voice for people who have felt like they had not had a voice that represented in their interactions with the USDA. It was my responsibility to carry that.”

    Born and raised in Petersburg, Virginia, by educators, Bronaugh at first had aspirations to become an educator herself and earned a bachelor’s degree in education from James Madison University.

    But after earning a master’s degree and doctorate in vocational education from Virginia Tech, she stepped into agriculture when she took a job as a 4-H extension specialist at Virginia State University, a historically Black college and university. She also became dean of the College of Agriculture at Virginia State University and was executive director of the university’s Center for Agriculture Research, Engagement and Outreach.

    In May 2018, she was appointed commissioner of the Virginia Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services and made history as the first Black woman in the position. She was confirmed to her current role in May 2021.

    At USDA, Bronaugh led international agricultural trade missions in the United Kingdom and countries in East Africa to help US farm businesses and organizations strengthen export and trade relationships.

    She also helped create a chief diversity and inclusion office within the Office of the Secretary and has focused on diversifying USDA’s workforce, which has seen a slight uptick in the number of employees of color over the course of her tenure. According to USDA data, 73% of USDA employees are White, 28% are employees of color and 11% are Black. Forty-five percent of USDA employees are women.

    Her very presence atop the department has been inspiring for current and former Black USDA employees, including Shirley Sherrod, who was the USDA’s director of rural development in Georgia before being pushed out under controversial circumstances in 2010.

    “The fact that she is the first Black woman to hold the position means a lot to us. It gives us hope for the future,” Sherrod, who is also a member of the Equity Commission, told CNN. “When you look at the US Department of Agriculture and you look at all of the actions we have suffered as Black people trying to get the programs that should have been available to everyone, to access them and feel that they were being implemented fairly – to actually have someone in the second position … really helping to oversee that and have a voice in places we don’t normally get a chance to be in, just to me meant a lot.”

    As Bronaugh prepares to leave the agency, one of her final orders of business will be to release the Equity Commission’s interim report on its findings on Tuesday, which she hopes will provide a blueprint for acting on the inequities she has tried to address during her time at USDA. She said there is no time frame on when the agency will begin implementing the recommendations but she is hopeful it will happen immediately. If confirmed by the Senate, Small would be tasked with presenting the commission’s final recommendations to Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack later this year.

    “Being able to get the Equity Commission to a set of interim recommendations has been huge for me,” Bronaugh said. “That is going to give us an opportunity to look at, you know, where we have discretion, where we have authority and where we have resources to immediately start to address some of the historical inequity issues here are USDA.”

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  • Warren Buffett is missing out on this year’s market comeback | CNN Business

    Warren Buffett is missing out on this year’s market comeback | CNN Business

    A version of this story first appeared in CNN Business’ Before the Bell newsletter. Not a subscriber? You can sign up right here.


    New York
    CNN
     — 

    Warren Buffett is arguably the most legendary investor of all time. But the Oracle of Omaha has missed out on this year’s stock market rally. So far, at least.

    Shares of Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway

    (BRKB)
    conglomerate, a company that owns businesses ranging from Geico and the Burlington Northern Santa Fe railroad to consumer brands like Dairy Queen, Duracell and Fruit of the Loom, are down slightly this year — lagging the market, as the S&P 500 is up 6%. (The Nasdaq has done even better, surging 12%.)

    Berkshire Hathaway also has a giant stock portfolio that Buffett helps run. Apple

    (AAPL)
    is now by far the top holding for Berkshire, which also has big stakes in Bank of America

    (BAC)
    , Chevron

    (CVX)
    , American Express

    (AXP)
    and Coca-Cola

    (KO)
    .

    So is Berkshire’s portfolio, dare we say it, a little too boring? After all, if you want exposure to the big blue chips he owns, you could just buy an S&P 500 index fund.

    Buffett, in fact, has promoted that idea to investors many times, arguing that most individual stock pickers will not be able to beat the market. The 92-year-old Buffett, who has a net worth of more than $100 billion according to Forbes, even said that he wants the trustee in charge of his will to put 90% of his wife’s inheritance in index funds.

    Still, investors pay extremely close attention to Buffett every time he speaks. So traders will be poring over every word in his annual shareholder letter, which will be released the morning of Saturday, February 25, along with Berkshire’s latest earnings report.

    Don’t expect any major surprises. Buffett will probably continue to extol the virtues of a long-term, patient approach to investing and give a bullish outlook for the US economy. And to his credit, that usually pays dividends: Berkshire stock was up 3% last year in a down market.

    But market watchers are looking to see what Buffett says about the current inflationary scourge that has had a big impact on consumers and investors. He has lived through a couple of bouts of high inflation, after all.

    “I would like to hear Buffett address what’s going on with interest rates and inflation up as much they are,” said Steve Check, president of Check Capital Management, an investment firm that owns Berkshire shares. “He talked a lot about how concerned he was in the 1970s and 1980s.”

    Buffett has made numerous comments about inflation over the past few decades. And he was particularly nervous during the late 1970s and early 1980s, when soaring oil prices created an inflationary shock that severely hurt the economy.

    “High rates of inflation create a tax on capital that makes much corporate investment unwise,” Buffett said in his 1980 shareholder letter to Berkshire investors. Buffett also described inflation as a gigantic parasitic “tapeworm” for businesses in 1981.

    Buffett may also need to address how top-heavy and concentrated his portfolio has become. Berkshire’s five largest holdings make up about 75% of the company’s stock investments.

    “The portfolio is significantly overweight [in] technology, energy, consumer staples, and financials relative to the S&P 500,” said Bill Stone, chief investment officer with The Glenview Trust Company, another Berkshire shareholder, in a report. Stone noted that Berkshire also has big stakes in Kraft Heinz

    (KHC)
    and oil company Occidental Petroleum

    (OXY)
    .

    Investors also want to hear more about what Buffett plans to do with Berkshire’s massive pile of cash. The company has more than $100 billion on its balance sheet. Are more acquisitions coming?

    Buffett has talked for the past few years about how he’s longing to do an “elephant-sized” deal with Berkshire’s cash. Its most recent big deal was last year’s purchase of insurer Alleghany for $11.6 billion.

    Still, the recent sluggish performance of Berkshire’s stock is unlikely to deter the faithful Buffett fans, many of whom are expected to make the annual pilgrimage to Omaha on May 6 for the company’s shareholder meeting.

    Berkshire vice chairman Charlie Munger will likely be on stage with Buffett. So will Greg Abel, the chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway Energy who Buffett has handpicked to eventually succeed him as Berkshire Hathaway CEO.

    Buffett’s faith in the US economy is well founded. American consumers have proven to be remarkably resilient despite rampant inflation. The surprisingly strong retail sales gains for January is further proof of that.

    Investors will get several more clues about consumer spending this week when several top retailers report earnings.

    Dow components Walmart

    (WMT)
    and Home Depot

    (HD)
    are the highlights. Walmart

    (WMT)
    , which has a massive grocery business, should shed some light on how shoppers are coping with surging grocery prices.

    Walmart could still benefit from its reputation as a place for bargains, though. That could even attract more affluent shoppers looking to save a buck.

    “With inflation remaining elevated in the U.S., we expect Walmart to see continued trade-down benefits…particularly from higher-income customers,” said Arun Sundaram, an analyst at CFRA Research, in a report.

    And investors will be looking for clues about the health of the housing market when Home Depot reports. Placer.ai, a research firm that measures foot traffic at top retailers, said in a recent report that consumers are returning to Home Depot and rival Lowe’s at almost pre-pandemic levels — even despite the housing slowdown.

    One reason? Current homeowners may decide to spend more on renovations if they now plan to stick in their current house longer instead of looking to sell.

    “Although the hot home-buying market is cooling off…foot traffic remains close to pre-pandemic levels due to a shift towards projects aimed at sprucing up a current living space,” said Placer.ai’s Ezra Carmel in a report. “It appears that projects that enhance the prospect of staying in place also have the ability to drive visits.”

    Investors will be keeping close tabs on several other retailers set to report earnings this week, including TJX

    (TJX)
    — the owner of TJ Maxx, Marshalls and HomeGoods — as well as online retailers eBay

    (EBAY)
    , Etsy

    (ETSY)
    , Overstock

    (OSTK)
    , Wayfair

    (W)
    and China’s Alibaba

    (BABA)
    .

    The US government is also set to release personal spending figures for January on Friday, another data point that will give a glimpse of consumers’ financial health.

    Monday: US stock and bond markets closed for Presidents’ Day

    Tuesday: US existing home sales; Eurozone and UK PMI; earnings from Walmart, Home Depot, Medtronic

    (MDT)
    , Fluor

    (FLR)
    , Molson Coors

    (TAP)
    , Caesars Entertainment

    (CZR)
    , Diamondback Energy

    (FANG)
    , Chesapeake Energy

    (CHK)
    , Palo Alto Networks

    (PANW)
    , Coinbase, La-Z-Boy

    (LZB)
    and Hostess Brands

    (TWNK)

    Wednesday: Weekly crude oil inventories; earnings from Stellantis, Baidu

    (BIDU)
    , TJX, Garmin

    (GRMN)
    , Overstock, Wingstop

    (WING)
    , Nvidia

    (NVDA)
    , eBay, Etsy and Bumble

    Thursday: US weekly jobless claims; US Q4 GDP (second estimate); Eurozone inflation; Turkey interest rate decision; earnings from Alibaba, Netease

    (NTES)
    , Keurig Dr Pepper

    (KDP)
    , Wayfair, Newmont, Domino’s

    (DPZ)
    , Papa John’s

    (PZZA)
    , Yeti

    (YETI)
    , Nikola, CNN owner Warner Bros. Discovery, Block

    (SQ)
    , Booking Holdings

    (BKNG)
    , Live Nation

    (LYV)
    , Carvana

    (CVNA)
    , Intuit

    (INTU)
    and Beyond Meat

    (BYND)

    Friday: US personal income and spending; US PCE inflation figures; US new home sales; Japan inflation; Germany Q4 GDP; earnings from CIBC

    (CM)
    , Scripps

    (SSP)
    and Cinemark

    (CNK)

    Saturday: Berkshire Hathaway earnings and Warren Buffett annual shareholder letter

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  • Here are the US cities where home prices are actually falling | CNN Business

    Here are the US cities where home prices are actually falling | CNN Business


    Washington, DC
    CNN
     — 

    Home prices are going up across the country — in aggregate. Looking at individual markets, however, some are showing prices have fallen from a year ago.

    Single-family median home prices increased 4% in the fourth quarter from a year ago to $378,700. Prices were strongest in the Northeast in the last quarter, up 5.3%; followed by the South, up 4.9%; the Midwest, up 4% and the West, up 2.6%, according to the National Association of Realtors.

    But drill down to the market level and it’s clear that prices in some areas are declining from the prior year. The positive regional numbers mask that about 11% of individual housing markets tracked by NAR — 20 of 186 cities — experienced home price declines in the fourth quarter of last year.

    “A few markets may see double-digit price drops, especially some of the more expensive parts of the country, which have also seen weaker employment and higher instances of residents moving to other areas,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist.

    Nearly all of the most expensive places to buy are in the West and half of the 10 most expensive cities are in California. Several of those places are seeing prices fall the most.

    San Jose, California, was the most expensive place to purchase a home in the United States in the fourth quarter. But that median price of $1,577,500 is actually down 5.8% from a year ago — and prices there have already dropped 17% from the peak $1,900,000 median price in the second quarter of last year, according to NAR.

    San Francisco had the biggest price drop in the country, year over year, last quarter, with the median price of $1,230,000 — down 6.1% from a year ago. Prices for San Francisco homes are already down 21% in the fourth quarter from the peak median price of $1,550,000 in the second quarter.

    Among the most expensive cities that saw prices falling are Anaheim, California, with the median price of $1,132,000, down 1.6% from a year ago; Los Angeles, with the median price of $829,100, down 1.3%; and Boulder, Colorado, with the median price of $759,500, down 2.0%.

    Other places with falling prices saw the big price increases during the frenzied home buying market of the past few years. They also tend to be appealing lifestyle destinations where people moved to as remote work provided more flexibility. These include Boise, Idaho, where prices fell 3.4% from a year ago and Austin, Texas, where prices are down 1.3%.

    The good news for buyers looking for price relief is that the 4% median price hike in the fourth quarter is less than the 8.6% increase in the third quarter. In addition, the price increases are smaller, with far fewer markets experiencing double-digit price gains in the fourth quarter.

    “A slowdown in home prices is underway and welcomed, particularly as the typical home price has risen 42% in the past three years,” said Yun, noting these cost increases have far surpassed wage increases and consumer price inflation since 2019.

    Throughout much of the pandemic, home prices across the country moved in a single direction: up. Some hotspots like Austin and Boise saw prices skyrocket. Other areas — particularly in the Midwest — saw prices go up more moderately. Yet, because mortgage rates were near historic lows, buyers came out in droves.

    That story changed last year, when mortgage rates spiked as a result of the Federal Reserve’s historic campaign to rein in inflation. Homebuying fell off a cliff. By the end of 2022, sales of existing homes were down nearly 18% from 2021 as would-be homebuyers left the market, according to NAR.

    Typically, a drop in demand to buy would mean excess supply and ultimately lead to prices coming down. But that’s not happening, broadly speaking, in the housing market.

    Instead, prices for single-family homes climbed in nearly 90% of metro areas tracked by NAR in the fourth quarter: 166 markets out of 186 saw prices still going up. The national median price of a single-family home increased 4% last quarter from one year ago to $378,700.

    How can this be?

    One main driver of this phenomenon is that there is a shortage of inventory due to chronic underbuilding of affordable homes in the United States, along with homeowners who don’t want to part with the ultra-low mortgage rate they secured over the past few years.

    “Even with a projected reduction in home sales this year, prices are expected to remain stable in the vast majority of the markets due to extremely limited supply,” said Yun.

    There are still places where home prices continue to climb at double-digit rates. The top 10 cities with the largest year-over-year price increases all recorded gains of at least 14.5%, with seven of those markets in Florida and the Carolinas, according to NAR.

    Farmington, New Mexico, saw the biggest price increase in the fourth quarter, up 20.3% from a year ago. It was followed by Sarasota, Florida, up 19.5%; Naples, Florida, up 17.2%; Greensboro, North Carolina, up 17.0%; Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, up 16.2%; Oshkosh, Wisconsin, up 16.0%; Winston-Salem, North Carolina, up 15.7%; El Paso, Texas, up 15.2%; Punta Gorda, Florida, up 15.2%; and Daytona Beach, Florida, up 14.5%.

    In the last quarter of 2022 a family needed a qualifying income of at least $100,000 to afford a 10% down payment mortgage in 71 markets, up from 59 in the prior quarter, according to NAR.

    Yet there were 16 markets where a family needed a qualifying income of less than $50,000 to afford a home, although that was down from 17 the previous quarter. Some of those included Peoria, Illinois, where a family can qualify for a loan with an income of $33,660; Waterloo, Iowa, with an income of $40,639; and Montgomery, Alabama, with an income of $48,172.

    Nationally, the monthly mortgage payment on a typical existing single-family home with a 20% down payment was $1,969 in the fourth quarter according to NAR. That’s a 7% increase from the third quarter of last year, when the monthly payment was $1,838, but a major surge of 58% — or a $720 monthly increase — from one year ago.

    This made the affordability picture even harder for many home buyers. Families typically spent 26.2% of their income on mortgage payments, which was up from 25% in the prior quarter and 17.5% one year ago.

    First-time buyers were evidently pushed to a breaking point on affordability. They typically spent 39.5% of their family income on mortgage payments, up from 37.8% in the previous quarter. A mortgage is considered unaffordable if the monthly payment, including principal and interest, amounts to more than 25% of the family’s income. Generally, a common financial rule of thumb is to not spend more than 30% of your income on housing costs.

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  • China’s property crash is prompting banks to offer mortgages to 70-year-olds | CNN Business

    China’s property crash is prompting banks to offer mortgages to 70-year-olds | CNN Business


    Hong Kong
    CNN
     — 

    The property market in China is so depressed that some banks are resorting to drastic measures, including allowing people to pay off mortgages until they are 95 years old.

    Some banks in the cities of Nanning, Hangzhou, Ningbo and Beijing have extended the upper age limit on mortgages to between 80 and 95, according to a number of state media reports. That means people aged 70 can now take out loans with maturities of between 10 and 25 years.

    China’s property market is in the midst of a historic downturn. New home prices had fallen for 16 straight months through December. Sales by the country’s top 100 developers last year were only 60% of 2021 levels.

    Analysts say the new age limits, which aren’t yet official national policy, aim to breathe life into the country’s moribund property market while taking into consideration China’s rapidly aging population, said Yan Yuejin, a property analyst at E-House China Holdings, a real estate services firm, in a recent research note.

    “Basically, it’s a policy tool to stimulate housing demand, as it can alleviate the debt payment burden and encourage home buying,” he added.

    The new mortgage terms are like a “relay loan.” If the elderly borrower isn’t able to repay, his or her children must carry on with the mortgage, he said.

    Last month, China reported that its population shrank in 2022 for the first time in more than 60 years, a new milestone in the country’s deepening demographic crisis with significant implications for its slowing economy. The number of people aged 60 or above increased to 280 million by the end of last year, or 19.8% of the population.

    The mortgage borrower’s age plus mortgage length should not usually exceed 70 years, according to previous rules published by the banking regulator. China’s average life expectancy is around 78.

    The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission hasn’t commented publicly about the new terms.

    But bank branches across the country are setting their own terms on these multi-generational loans.

    According to the Beijing News, a branch of Bank of Communications in the city said borrowers as old as 70 can take out home loans lasting 25 years, which means the upper age limit on its mortgages has been lifted to 95.

    But there are also prerequisites: The mortgage needs to be guaranteed by the borrower’s children, and their combined monthly income must be at least twice the monthly mortgage payment.

    Separately, a branch of Citic Bank has extended the upper age limit on its mortgages to 80, the paper said, citing a bank client manager.

    Calls to the Beijing branches of Citic Bank and Bank of Communications were not answered.

    Hong Hao, chief economist at Grow Investment Group, said this was a “drastic” measure and “could be a marketing gimmick to attract the elderly to pay [mortgages] for the younger generation.”

    Yan from E-House said the main beneficiary of the move might not be the elderly, but middle-aged borrowers between 40 and 59. Under the extended payment cutoff age, those people could get a mortgage for 30 years — the maximum length allowed in China.

    Compared with previous terms, it means those borrowers could pay less each month.

    “It is obviously a way to alleviate the debt payment burden,” said Hong.

    According to calculations by E-House, if a bank extends the upper age limit to 80, borrowers aged from 40 to 59 can get 10 additional years on their mortgages. Assuming their mortgage is one million yuan ($145,416), then their monthly payment can be reduced by 1,281 yuan ($186), or 21%.

    Chinese households have grown reluctant to purchase new homes in the past year, as the now-defunct Covid curbs, falling home prices and rising unemployment have discouraged would-be buyers. Last summer, protests that erupted in dozens of cities were staged by people refusing to pay mortgages on unfinished homes, dealing a further blow to market sentiment.

    Authorities have rolled out a flurry of stimulus measures to try to revive the housing market, including several cuts to lending rates and measures to ease the liquidity crisis for developers — so that they can resume stalled construction and deliver pre-sold homes to buyers as quickly as possible.

    Other than Beijing, some banks in Nanning, the provincial capital of Guangxi province, have raised the upper age limit on mortgages to 80, according to the city’s official newspaper Nanguo Zaobao.

    In the eastern cities of Ningbo and Hangzhou, several local lenders are advertising age limits of 75 or 80, a relaxation from previous rules, according to reports by government-owned Ningbo Daily and Hangzhou Daily.

    “If the applicant is too old to meet the loan requirement, they can have their children as the guarantor,” a lender was quoted as saying.

    But Wang Yuchen, a real estate lawyer at Beijing Jinsu Law Firm, warned such mortgages were “risky.”

    It’s understandable that many cities are trying to revive their housing markets by reducing the monthly debt payment and enlisting more elderly people into the pool of home buyers, he said in a written commentary on his WeChat account.

    “But the elderly have relatively poor repayment ability. On the one hand, it could affect their quality of life in old age, as they continue carrying the mortgage debt mountain and work for the bank until the last moment of their lives,” he said. “On the other hand, the associated risks may be transferred to their children, increasing their financial pressure.”

    “For some home buyers, choosing this way to purchase a house is probably because of their lack of funds. But it’s risky to do so at this time,” he said, adding that the property market is in a structural downturn and the government is still working to curb speculation.

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  • Inflation pushes up mortgage rates for second week in a row | CNN Business

    Inflation pushes up mortgage rates for second week in a row | CNN Business


    Washington, DC
    CNN
     — 

    Mortgage rates climbed higher for the second consecutive week, following four weeks of declines. Inflation is running hotter, making rates more volatile, with the expectation that they will move in the 6% to 7% range over the next few weeks.

    The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.32% in the week ending February 16, up from 6.12% the week before, according to data from Freddie Mac released Thursday. A year ago, the 30-year fixed-rate was 3.92%.

    After climbing for most of 2022, mortgage rates had been trending downward since November, as various economic indicators indicated inflation may have peaked. But a stronger-than-expected jobs report and a Consumer Price Index report that showed inflation is only moderately easing suggest the Federal Reserve could continue hiking its benchmark lending rate in its battle against inflation.

    Inflation is keeping mortgage rates volatile, said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist.

    “The economy is showing signs of resilience, mainly due to consumer spending, and rates are increasing,” said Khater. “Overall housing costs are also increasing and therefore impacting inflation, which continues to persist.”

    The average mortgage rate is based on mortgage applications that Freddie Mac receives from thousands of lenders across the country. The survey includes only borrowers who put 20% down and have excellent credit. Many buyers who put down less money upfront or have less than ideal credit will pay more than the average rate.

    Investors are digesting the latest economic data, said George Ratiu, Realtor.com manager of economic research.

    The Fed does not set the interest rates that borrowers pay on mortgages directly, but its actions influence them. Mortgage rates tend to track the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds, which move based on a combination of anticipation about the Fed’s actions, what the Fed actually does and investors’ reactions. When Treasury yields go up, so do mortgage rates; when they go down, mortgage rates tend to follow.

    “While the Fed signaled that it will continue to raise rates this year, the moves are expected to come in 25 basis point increments, a less aggressive tightening than what we saw in 2022,” said Ratiu. “The central bank is acknowledging that it sees its monetary actions having a tangible effect on inflation. The CPI data out this week seems to confirm the bank’s views.”

    At the same time, he said, many companies expect the economy will enter a recession as a result of the Fed’s rate hikes, even in the face of data pointing to continued resilience.

    “This expectation is becoming more visible in the growing number of companies resorting to layoffs as a hedge against a potential economic slowdown,” he said. “People who are laid off pull back on spending, and even those who are still employed may begin to do the same due to worries about losing their job, thus potentially sending consumer spending into a downward spiral.”

    For home buyers, the cost of financing a home is expected to go up.

    Already, rates have been climbing in recent weeks, leading to a drop in mortgage applications. Last week, applications fell 7.7% from one week earlier, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

    Buyers are proving to be interest rate sensitive, according to MBA.

    “Purchase applications dropped to their lowest level since the beginning of this year and were more than 40% lower than a year ago,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s vice president and deputy chief economist. “Potential buyers remain quite sensitive to the current level of mortgage rates, which are more than two percentage points above last year’s levels and have significantly reduced buyers’ purchasing power.”

    Mortgage rates are expected to move in the 6% to 7% range over the next few weeks, said Ratiu.

    For housing markets, he said, “the rebound in rates translates into higher mortgage payments, adding pressure on homebuyers.”

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  • Microsoft and Google promised to invest in these communities. Now they’re backtracking | CNN Business

    Microsoft and Google promised to invest in these communities. Now they’re backtracking | CNN Business



    CNN Business
     — 

    When Microsoft President Brad Smith announced in February 2021 that the tech giant had purchased a 90-acre plot of land in Atlanta’s westside, he laid out a bold vision: The company, he said, would invest in the community and put it “on the path toward becoming one of Microsoft’s largest hubs” in the United States.

    The announcement, which was met with enthusiastic coverage in local media, promised the construction of affordable housing, programs to help public school children develop digital skills, support for historically Black colleges and universities, new funding for local nonprofits, and affordable broadband for more people in Atlanta.

    “Our biggest question today is not what Atlanta can do to support Microsoft,” Smith wrote. “It’s what Microsoft can do to support Atlanta.”

    Two years later, Microsoft announced a series of cost-cutting efforts, including eliminating 10,000 jobs, making changes to its hardware portfolio and consolidating leases. As part of those moves, Microsoft put development of its Atlanta campus on pause this month, a spokesperson confirmed to CNN.

    The decision to pause plans feels like a “broken promise” that caught many residents of the predominately Black neighborhood where Microsoft planned to build the campus off-guard, according to Jasmine Hope, a local resident and chair of her neighborhood planning unit.

    “All the promises of, ‘We’re going to put a grocery store here, we’re going to bring jobs to the area, we’re going to have a pipeline between the schools and Microsoft to create jobs,’ all that seems like it’s out the window,” she told CNN. “But the consequences are still being felt by the neighborhood.”

    A Microsoft spokesperson said the land is not for sale, “and we still aim to set aside a quarter of the 90 acres for community needs.” Microsoft will continue efforts “to create a positive impact in the region and be a contributing community partner,” the spokesperson added.

    As the tech industry boomed in the United States throughout the past decade, cities across the country vied to become tech hubs. State and city officials competed for Silicon Valley giants to bring offices, data centers and warehouses to their communities in hopes of creating jobs and bringing other benefits that cash-strapped local governments might struggle to fund on their own. In perhaps the biggest example of this, 238 communities submitted bids in 2017 to be home to Amazon’s second headquarters, with some offering major tax breaks or even to rename land “city of Amazon.”

    But now, a number of large tech companies are rethinking their costs, after years of seemingly limitless hiring and expansion. The reason: a perfect storm of shifting pandemic demand for online services, rising interest rates and fears of a looming recession. Much of the focus of this tech downturn so far has been on the long list of layoffs, but companies have also teased plans to dramatically reduce real estate expenses across the country.

    Facebook-parent Meta, Microsoft, Salesforce and Snap have each shuttered offices or announced plans to cut back on real estate, according to recent corporate announcements, filings and local news reports. Some tech companies have said they’ll let leases expire or go fully remote. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg said his company is “transitioning to desk-sharing for people who already spend most of their time outside the office.”

    The effect of those pullbacks can already be felt across the country, from New York City, where Meta reportedly scaled back its real estate footprint in the Hudson Yards neighborhood, to San Francisco, where some local businesses say they are facing the ripple effects of remote work and multiple tech office closures.

    “Tech had pretty much gained market share to become the top industry leasing office space across the US, and that started back in 2012, 2013,” said Colin Yasukochi, the executive director of the Tech Insights Center at CBRE, a commercial real estate firm. In 2022, however, finance and insurance companies overtook the tech industry for the highest share of US office leases, according to CBRE’s data.

    “Really, over the last couple of quarters, you’ve seen the tech industry decrease its leasing activity pretty significantly,” he added. “That’s really, I think, the biggest impact that you’ve seen regarding these layoffs and austerity measures: the leasing activity pullback by the tech industry.”

    But the impact of that pullback is perhaps most stark in the communities with less robust tech hubs.

    Quarry Yards, on Atlanta’s westside, has been a source of some promise and dashed hopes. In 2017, Georgia officials included the formerly industrial area on a list of sites where Amazon could build its second headquarters, as part of its pitch to the e-commerce giant. Amazon ultimately went with other cities, but four years later, another Seattle tech giant scooped up the land.

    After the purchase, Microsoft described Quarry Yards as a place with “wide, tree-lined streets” but “broken sidewalks.” The area, Microsoft said, is “food desert with no grocery store, pharmacy or bank.”

    The community, according to Hope, consists of “a lot of elderly, Black neighbors.” These residents, she said, have been worried about gentrification and displacement for years as housing prices and property taxes surge in the metro Atlanta region.

    Jasmine Hope, PhD, Department of Rehabilitation Medicine, Motions Analysis Laboratory, Emory University.

    “Just the announcement of Microsoft coming into town” brought new buyers and developers into the area, she said, exacerbating these longstanding concerns. Data from Zillow indicates average home values in the neighborhood surged more at a significantly faster pace between January 2020 and December 2022 than Atlanta as a whole.

    But residents also had cautious optimism about the benefits Microsoft promised to the community, according to Hope. Now, the community is left with higher prices but none of the promised improvements or economic opportunities. “We’re not going to see any benefits and only deal with the consequences,” she said.

    “It feels like the community is now going to be burdened by this,” she said.

    Hope’s community isn’t alone in confronting the whiplash of Silicon Valley’s real estate pullback. Late last month, the city of Kirkland, Washington, said in a press release that it had been notified by Google that the company will not be proceeding with its proposed redevelopment project that initially aimed to bring a massive new campus to the city.

    In a Kirkland City Council meeting held just last summer, representatives from Google teased a slew of community benefits from the build — including infrastructure improvements, such as the creation of bike lanes and pedestrian trails, as well as a more than $12 million investment in affordable housing. The planning process between Google and the city had been taking place since the fall of 2020.

    “As we continue to shape our future workplace experience, we’re working to ensure our real estate investments meet the current and future needs of our workforce,” Ryan Lamont, a Google spokesperson, told CNN in a statement. “Our campuses are at the heart of our Google community, and we remain committed to our long-term presence in Washington state.”

    Even San Francisco, whose fortunes are tied to Silicon Valley more than any other city, is showing signs of strain from the one-two punch of the shift to remote work and office closures.

    Office vacancy rates in the city hit a record high of 27.6% in the final three months of last year, according to CBRE, compared to the pre-pandemic figure of 3.7%.

    “The previous high was about 20%, after the Dotcom bust,” Yasukochi, of CBRE, told CNN. “We’re at the highest point that our records have shown.”

    The rise of remote and hybrid work had been a major driver in tech giants cutting back on their real estate investments, Yasukochi said. Then came the recent cost-cutting measures.

    Local business owners say they are now feeling the impacts.

    An office sits vacant on October 27, 2022 in San Francisco, California. According to a report by commercial real estate firm CBRE, the city of San Francisco has a record 27.1 million square feet of office space available as the city struggles to rebound from the Covid-19 pandemic. The US Census Bureau reports an estimated 35% of employees in San Francisco and San Jose continue to work from home.

    Mark Nagle, the owner of a 21-year-old Irish pub and restaurant in downtown San Francisco called The Chieftain, told CNN he has witnessed a “cascade of closures” of tech and corporate offices in his neighborhood recently — including the shuttering of a Snapchat office just down the street.

    “We’re in a great location normally, we’re downtown,” Nagle said. But now his business is surrounded by several vacant retail spaces and multiple lots that are under construction.

    The number of workers regularly coming into the area has not bounced back since the start of the pandemic, Nagle said, and neither has his business. Nagle said that in addition to workers stopping by for a drink at the end of their days, nearby companies would frequently hold events and meetings at The Chieftain, but that those have also largely dropped off.

    At least six bars and restaurants in a two-block radius of him have shuttered in recent years, he said.

    “You’re making do with less and it’s made the business so much more unpredictable,” he added. “And we’re one of the lucky ones that can keep their doors open.”

    – CNN’s Clare Duffy contributed to this report.

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  • Harvey Weinstein sued by woman who he was convicted of raping in Los Angeles criminal trial | CNN

    Harvey Weinstein sued by woman who he was convicted of raping in Los Angeles criminal trial | CNN



    CNN
     — 

    A woman has filed a civil lawsuit against disgraced former film producer Harvey Weinstein for sexual battery, false imprisonment and other claims after he was convicted of raping her last December in Los Angeles.

    The model and actress, who is identified as Jane Doe 1 in court documents, was the first to testify in Weinstein’s Los Angeles trial in 2022.

    The three charges Weinstein was convicted of last December – rape, sexual penetration by a foreign object and forcible oral copulation – were all tied to Jane Doe 1, who testified the movie mogul assaulted her in a Beverly Hills hotel room in 2013.

    But the jury deadlocked on the alleged aggravating factors attached to the charges, which could have increased his sentence and the judge declared a mistrial on those allegations.

    Weinstein is set to be sentenced on February 23, at which time the judge will consider a motion from defense attorneys asking for a new trial.

    The new lawsuit, filed February 9 in the Superior Court of California for Los Angeles County, alleges Weinstein met Jane Doe 1 briefly at a film festival and then showed up at her hotel room later that evening and assaulted her in February 2013.

    The plaintiff is suing Weinstein for sexual battery, false imprisonment, intentional infliction of emotional distress and negligence. She is also seeking an undisclosed amount in punitive and other damages.

    “Harvey has always denied the allegations, and even more, has maintained that he was never together with her in Mr. Cs hotel at all and that these events never happened. Certain witnesses lied about crucial evidence that could have exonerated Mr. Weinstein, and it was deemed unnecessary by the court for the jury to hear or know about these facts,” Juda Engelmayer, a representative for Weinstein, told CNN in a statement.

    Engelmayer added that Weinstein’s attorneys have “submitted a motion detailing those facts and contend that the jury would not have convicted him had they known the specifics…”

    The assault happened after Weinstein allegedly showed up at the hotel and asked a front desk staffer to connect him with the victim, the lawsuit said. After the front desk called Jane Doe, Weinstein ended up talking on the phone with the victim and asked her for her room number. She declined to offer her room number and hung up.

    Minutes later, Weinstein showed up outside her room, and when the woman refused to let him inside, he “bullied his way into her room,” the lawsuit says.

    “Once in the room, he engaged in small talk with Plaintiff but in an arrogant and intimidating manner. He quickly made his real intentions clear. He wanted to have sex with her,” the lawsuit says. “He sat on her bed and then forcibly grabbed Plaintiff and made her sit down next to him.”

    After telling her that she was “pretty,” he commented on her breasts and “grabbed” at them, the lawsuit says.

    Jane Doe repeatedly asked Weinstein to leave her hotel room, but he ignored her and became aggressive verbally and physically, according to the lawsuit.

    “He then forced Plaintiff to orally copulate him and then he forcibly moved her into the bathroom, where he blocked her from leaving and then raped her,” the lawsuit says. “After he was done raping her, he acted as if nothing out of the ordinary happened, and left.”

    California law allows adult victims of sexual assault to file a civil action within ten years of the alleged assault and within one year of the defendant being convicted of a felony, according to the lawsuit.

    The victim’s attorney, Dave Ring, said in a statement to CNN that they “look forward to have Weinstein finally testify under oath in this case.”

    “Harvey Weinstein has been convicted of raping Jane Doe 1,” Ring said. “Her lawsuit seeks to recover compensation from him for the horrific rape she endured and all of the issues she has suffered through for the past ten years because of that rape.”

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  • Chinese savers stashed away $2.6 trillion last year but property crash will cool ‘revenge spending’ | CNN Business

    Chinese savers stashed away $2.6 trillion last year but property crash will cool ‘revenge spending’ | CNN Business


    Hong Kong
    CNN
     — 

    Even for a famously frugal nation, Chinese people saved a lot last year. Stuck at home due to Covid restrictions, they socked away a record $2.6 trillion.

    Now that life is returning to normal, hopes are high that consumers will spend with a vengeance, providing a much-needed boost to the world’s second largest economy, the impact of which would be felt around the world.

    Household savings at banks surged by a record high of 17.84 trillion yuan ($2.6 trillion) in 2022, up 80% from 2021, according to the People’s Bank of China. That’s more than one third of households’ total income. Before the pandemic, people saved about a fifth of their income.

    With pandemic controls lifted, Chinese shoppers appeared to be enjoying their freedom to spend. Hotel bookings, movie tickets and restaurant sales all boomed during the recent holiday season.

    The reawakening of the Chinese consumer will be an “exciting story” for global investors in 2023, said Swetha Ramachandran and Jian Shi Cortesi, investment directors at GAM Investments, a global asset management firm based in Zurich.

    “Chinese consumers are now going into reopening with strong household balance sheets,” they said, adding that Chinese companies exposed to discretionary spending and global luxury brands stand to gain significantly from the trend.

    More than 300 million travelers spent a total of $56 billion over the seven-day Lunar New Year holiday through January 27, up 30% from a year ago, according to the cultural and tourism ministry. According to the State Tax Administration, sales from consumer-facing businesses were 12% higher than pre-pandemic 2019 levels.

    Bookings for hotels soared more than 10 fold at some of the hottest tourist attractions, such as the cities of Xi’an and Luoyang, according to online travel agency Tongcheng Travel. Xi’an’s Terracotta Army museum was so crowded that visitors complained on social media they could only see other people’s heads rather than the statues.

    Restaurants reported higher sales than before the pandemic and were unprepared for the increased demand, according to a national survey published by the China Cuisine Association last week. More than a third of respondents said they were “extremely” short-staffed during the holiday.

    China’s box office receipts climbed to more than $1.5 billion last month, the best January on record, according to the China Film Administration. That’s mainly thanks to an extraordinary holiday week, when moviegoers paid 129 million visits to cinemas.

    Passengers prepare to check in at Daxing International airport in Beijing on January 19, 2023.

    The recovery in consumption has already lifted the Chinese economy.

    Last week, the Caixin/S&P Global services purchasing managers’ index (PMI), which tracks activity in the services sector, expanded in January for the first time in five months. That’s mainly because travel and consumer spending bounced back.

    The index, which mainly covers smaller, private businesses, mirrored the results of an earlier government PMI survey. The data added to evidence of a rapid rebound in economic activity, analysts said.

    The boom has fueled business confidence. After seeing record sales in many stores, Xiabuxiabu, one of China’s largest hot pot chains, opened 34 new stores last month in the country, the company said.

    Global luxury giants are also hopeful Chinese shoppers will come back. LVMH said in January that it was “confident” and “optimistic” that China’s luxury market would bounce back this year. LVMH CEO Bernard Arnault said its stores in France are ready to welcome Chinese shoppers as more travel restrictions are eased.

    Burberry

    (BBRYF)
    said last month that it’s seeing “very promising” signs in China, according to Reuters.

    There’s one conspicuous laggard in consumption, however.

    Property sales by China’s 100 largest developers dropped 32% in January, according to data compiled by China Real Estate Information, a property research firm. In the nation’s 30 largest cities, property sales were only 60% of the 2022 level.

    Chinese households have been reluctant to buy homes for more than a year, as Covid curbs, falling home prices and rising unemployment discouraged prospective buyers. Mortgage protests that erupted in dozens of cities last year further dented buyers’ confidence.

    Despite a flurry of stimulus measures, the slump has shown no sign of improvement. By December, new home prices had fallen by 16 straight months, according to the most recent government statistics.

    Since real estate accounts for 70% of household wealth in China, “revenge spending” will be limited, analysts said.

    “The property industry remains the biggest drag on China’s economy,” said Raymond Yeung, chief economist for Greater China at ANZ Research, adding that the high youth jobless rate and asset price deflation will constrain China’s consumption recovery.

    BNP Paribas says “revenge spending” in China is set to happen, although it will be on a smaller scale than in Western economies such as in the United States.

    “The removal of Covid restrictions should unleash pent-up demand, and we expect the biggest driver of the recovery in 2023 to be consumption,” its analysts said.

    They expect household consumption growth to rebound to 9.5% in 2023 from about 3% in 2022, fueling annual GDP growth of more than 5%.

    Morgan Stanley analysts expect to see some “revenge spending” mostly from household with stable incomes.

    Those households include employees from the export sector, a rare bright spot in the Chinese economy during the pandemic years, business owners with steady earnings or those living off payouts from asset holdings.

    “We see a mini-rebound as early as in the first quarter of 2023,” they said, adding that the recovery in consumption could pick up in the second half of this year, but would still be lower than the pre-Covid level.

    They’re expecting household consumption growth to rebound to 8.5% in 2023, contributing to full-year economic growth of 5.7%.

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  • Fact check: Biden makes false and misleading claims in economic speech | CNN Politics

    Fact check: Biden makes false and misleading claims in economic speech | CNN Politics


    Washington
    CNN
     — 

    President Joe Biden delivered a Thursday speech to hail economic progress during his administration and to attack congressional Republicans for their proposals on the economy and the social safety net.

    Some of Biden’s claims in the speech were false, misleading or lacking critical context, though others were correct. Here’s a breakdown of the 14 claims CNN fact-checked.

    Touting the bipartisan infrastructure law he signed in 2021, Biden said, “Last year, we funded 700,000 major construction projects – 700,000 all across America. From highways to airports to bridges to tunnels to broadband.”

    Facts First: Biden’s “700,000” figure is wildly inaccurate; it adds an extra two zeros to the correct figure Biden used in a speech last week and the White House has also used before: 7,000 projects. The White House acknowledged his misstatement later on Thursday by correcting the official transcript to say 7,000 rather than 700,000.

    Biden said, “Well, here’s the deal: I put a – we put a cap, and it’s now in effect – now in effect, as of January 1 – of $2,000 a year on prescription drug costs for seniors.”

    Facts First: Biden’s claims that this cap is now in effect and that it came into effect on January 1 are false. The $2,000 annual cap contained in the Inflation Reduction Act that Biden signed last year – on Medicare Part D enrollees’ out-of-pocket spending on covered prescription drugs – takes effect in 2025. The maximum may be higher than $2,000 in subsequent years, since it is tied to Medicare Part D’s per capita costs.

    Asked for comment, a White House official noted that other Inflation Reduction Act health care provisions that will save Americans money did indeed come into effect on January 1, 2023.

    – CNN’s Tami Luhby contributed to this item.

    Criticizing former President Donald Trump over his handling of the Covid-19 pandemic, Biden said, “Back then, only 3.5 million people had been – even had their first vaccination, because the other guy and the other team didn’t think it mattered a whole lot.”

    Facts First: Biden is free to criticize Trump’s vaccine rollout, but his “only 3.5 million” figure is misleading at best. As of the day Trump left office in January 2021, about 19 million people had received a first shot of a Covid-19 vaccine, according to figures published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The “3.5 million” figure Biden cited is, in reality, the number of people at the time who had received two shots to complete their primary vaccination series.

    Someone could perhaps try to argue that completing a primary series is what Biden meant by “had their first vaccination” – but he used a different term, “fully vaccinated,” to refer to the roughly 230 million people in that very same group today. His contrasting language made it sound like there are 230 million people with at least two shots today versus 3.5 million people with just one shot when he took office. That isn’t true.

    Biden said Republicans want to cut taxes for billionaires, “who pay virtually only 3% of their income now – 3%, they pay.”

    Facts First: Biden’s “3%” claim is incorrect. For the second time in less than a week, Biden inaccurately described a 2021 finding from economists in his administration that the wealthiest 400 billionaire families paid an average of 8.2% of their income in federal individual income taxes between 2010 and 2018; after CNN inquired about Biden’s “3%” claim on Thursday, the White House published a corrected official transcript that uses “8%” instead. Also, it’s important to note that even that 8% number is contested, since it is an alternative calculation that includes unrealized capital gains that are not treated as taxable income under federal law.

    “Biden’s numbers are way too low,” said Howard Gleckman, senior fellow at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute think tank, though Gleckman also said we don’t know precisely what tax rates billionaires do pay. Gleckman wrote in an email: “In 2019, Berkeley economists Emmanuel Saez and Gabe Zucman estimated the top 400 households paid an average effective tax rate of about 23 percent in 2018. They got a lot of attention at the time because that rate was lower than the average rate of 24 percent for the bottom half of the income distribution. But it still was way more than 2 or 3, or even 8 percent.”

    Biden has cited the 8% statistic in various other speeches, but unlike the administration economists who came up with it, he tends not to explain that it doesn’t describe tax rates in a conventional way. And regardless, he said “3%” in this speech and “2%” in a speech last week.

    Biden cited a 2021 report from the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy think tank that found that 55 of the country’s largest corporations had made $40 billion in profit in their previous fiscal year but not paid any federal corporate income taxes. Before touting the 15% alternative corporate minimum tax he signed into law in last year’s Inflation Reduction Act, Biden said, “The days are over when corporations are paying zero in federal taxes.”

    Facts First: Biden exaggerated. The new minimum tax will reduce the number of companies that don’t pay any federal taxes, but it’s not true that the days of companies paying zero are “over.” That’s because the minimum tax, on the “book income” companies report to investors, only applies to companies with at least $1 billion in average annual income. According to the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, only 14 of the companies on its 2021 list of 55 non-payers reported having US pre-tax income of at least $1 billion.

    In other words, there will clearly still be some large and profitable corporations paying no federal income tax even after the minimum tax takes effect this year. The exact number is not yet known.

    Matthew Gardner, a senior fellow at the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, told CNN in the fall that the new tax is “an important step forward from the status quo” and that it will raise substantial revenue, but he also said: “I wouldn’t want to assert that the minimum tax will end the phenomenon of zero-tax profitable corporations. A more accurate phrasing would be to say that the minimum tax will *help* ensure that *the most profitable* corporations pay at least some federal income tax.”

    There are lots of nuances to the tax; you can read more specifics here. Asked for comment on Thursday, a White House official told CNN: “The Inflation Reduction Act ensures the wealthiest corporations pay a 15% minimum tax, precisely the corporations the President focused on during the campaign and in office. The President’s full Made in America tax plan would ensure all corporations pay a 15% minimum tax, and the President has called on Congress to pass that plan.”

    Noting the big increase in the federal debt under Trump, Biden said that his administration has taken a “different path” and boasted: “As a result, the last two years – my administration – we cut the deficit by $1.7 trillion, the largest reduction in debt in American history.”

    Facts First: Biden’s boast leaves out important context. It is true that the federal deficit fell by a total of $1.7 trillion under Biden in the 2021 and 2022 fiscal years, including a record $1.4 trillion drop in 2022 – but it is highly questionable how much credit Biden deserves for this reduction. Biden did not mention that the primary reason the deficit fell so substantially was that it had skyrocketed to a record high under Trump in 2020 because of bipartisan emergency pandemic relief spending, then fell as expected as the spending expired as planned. Independent analysts say Biden’s own actions, including his laws and executive orders, have had the overall effect of adding to current and projected future deficits, not reducing those deficits.

    Dan White, senior director of economic research at Moody’s Analytics – an economics firm whose assessments Biden has repeatedly cited during his presidency – told CNN’s Matt Egan in October: “On net, the policies of the administration have increased the deficit, not reduced it.” The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, an advocacy group, wrote in September that Biden’s actions will add more than $4.8 trillion to deficits from 2021 through 2031, or $2.5 trillion if you don’t count the American Rescue Plan pandemic relief bill of 2021.

    National Economic Council director Brian Deese wrote on the White House website last week that the American Rescue Plan pandemic relief bill “facilitated a strong economic recovery and enabled the responsible wind-down of emergency spending programs,” thereby reducing the deficit; David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Funds, told Egan in October that the Biden administration does deserve credit for the recovery that has pushed the deficit downward. And Deese correctly noted that Biden’s signature legislation, last year’s Inflation Reduction Act, is expected to bring down deficits by more than $200 billion over the next decade.

    Still, the deficit-reducing impact of that one bill is expected to be swamped by the deficit-increasing impact of various additional bills and policies Biden has approved.

    Biden said, “Wages are up, and they’re growing faster than inflation. Over the past six months, inflation has gone down every month and, God willing, will continue to do that.”

    Facts First: Biden’s claim that wages are up and growing faster than inflation is true if you start the calculation seven months ago; “real” wages, which take inflation into account, started rising in mid-2022 as inflation slowed. (Biden is right that inflation has declined, on an annual basis, every month for the last six months.) However, real wages are lower today than they were both a full year ago and at the beginning of Biden’s presidency in January 2021. That’s because inflation was so high in 2021 and the beginning of 2022.

    There are various ways to measure real wages. Real average hourly earnings declined 1.7% between December 2021 and December 2022, while real average weekly earnings (which factors in the number of hours people worked) declined 3.1% over that period.

    Biden said he was disappointed that the first bill passed by the new Republican majority in the House of Representatives “added $114 billion to the deficit.”

    Facts First: Biden is correct about how the bill would affect the deficit if it became law. He accurately cited an estimate from the government’s nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.

    The bill would eliminate more than $71 billion of the $80 billion in additional funding for the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) that Biden signed into law in the Inflation Reduction Act. The Congressional Budget Office found that taking away this funding – some of which the Biden administration said will go toward increased audits of high-income individuals and large corporations – would result in a loss of nearly $186 billion in government revenue between 2023 and 2032, for a net increase to the deficit of about $114 billion.

    The Republican bill has no chance of becoming law under Biden, who has vowed to veto it in the highly unlikely event it got through the Democratic-controlled Senate.

    Biden said that “MAGA Republicans” in the House “want to impose a 30 percent national sales tax on everything from food, clothing, school supplies, housing, cars – a whole deal.” He said they want to do that because “they want to eliminate the income tax system.”

    Facts First: This is a fair description of the Republicans’ “FairTax” bill. The bill would eliminate federal income taxes, plus the payroll tax, capital gains tax and estate tax, and replace it with a national sales tax. The bill describes a rate of 23% on the “gross payments” on a product or service, but when the tax rate is described in the way consumers are used to sales taxes being described, it’s actually right around 30%, as a pro-FairTax website acknowledges.

    It is not clear how much support the bill currently has among the House Republican caucus. Notably, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy told CNN’s Manu Raju this week that he opposes the bill – though, while seeking right-wing votes for his bid for speaker in early January, he promised its supporters that it would be considered in committee. Biden wryly said in his speech, “The Republican speaker says he’s not so sure he’s for it.”

    Biden claimed the unemployment rate “is the lowest it’s been in 50 years.”

    Facts First: This is true. The unemployment rate was just below 3.5% in December, the lowest figure since 1969.

    The headline monthly rate, which is rounded to a single decimal place, was reported as 3.5% in December and also reported as 3.5% in three months of President Donald Trump’s tenure, in late 2019 and in early 2020. But if you look at more precise figures, December was indeed the lowest since 1969 – 3.47% – just below the figures for February 2020, January 2020 and September 2019.

    Biden said that the unemployment rates for Black and Hispanic Americans are “near record lows” and that the unemployment rate for people with disabilities is “the lowest ever recorded” and the “lowest ever in history.”

    Facts First: Biden’s claims are accurate, though it’s worth noting that the unemployment rate for people with disabilities has only been released by the government since 2008.

    The Black or African American unemployment rate was 5.7% in December, not far from the record low of 5.3% that was set in August 2019. (This data series goes back to 1972.) The rate was 9.2% in January 2021, the month Biden became president. The Hispanic or Latino unemployment rate was 4.1% in December, just above the record low of 4.0% that was set in September 2019. (This data series goes back to 1973.) The rate was 8.5% in January 2021.

    The unemployment rate for people with disabilities was 5.0% in December, the lowest since the beginning of the data series in 2008. The rate was 12.0% in January 2021.

    Biden said that fewer families are facing foreclosure than before the pandemic.

    Facts First: Biden is correct. According to a report published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, about 28,500 people had new foreclosure notations on their credit reports in the third quarter of 2022, the most recent quarter for which data is available; that was down from about 71,420 people with new foreclosure notations in the fourth quarter of 2019 and 74,860 people in the first quarter of 2020.

    Foreclosures plummeted in the second quarter of 2020 because of government moratoriums put in place because of the Covid-19 pandemic. Foreclosures spiked in 2022, relative to 2020-2021 levels, after the expiry of these moratoriums, but they remained very low by historical standards.

    Biden said, “More American families have health insurance today than any time in American history.”

    Facts First: Biden’s claim is accurate. An analysis provided to CNN by the Kaiser Family Foundation, which studies US health care, found that about 295 million US residents had health insurance in 2021, the highest on record – and Jennifer Tolbert, the foundation’s director for state health reform, told CNN this week that “I expect the number of people with insurance continued to increase in 2022.”

    Tolbert noted that the number of insured residents generally rises over time because of population growth, but she added that “it is not a given” that there will be an increase in the number of insured residents every year – the number declined slightly under Trump from 2018 to 2019, for example – and that “policy changes as well as economic factors also affect these numbers.”

    As CNN’s Tami Luhby has reported, sign-ups on the federal insurance exchange created by the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare, have spiked nearly 50% under Biden. Biden’s 2021 American Rescue Plan pandemic relief law and then the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act temporarily boosted federal premium subsidies for exchange enrollees, and the Biden administration has also taken various other steps to get people to sign up on the exchanges. In addition, enrollment in Medicaid health insurance has increased significantly during the Covid-19 pandemic, in part because of a bipartisan 2020 law that temporarily prevented people from being disenrolled from the program.

    The percentage of residents without health insurance fell to an all-time low of 8.0% in the first quarter of 2022, according to an analysis published last summer by the federal government’s Department of Health and Human Services. That meant there were 26.4 million people without health insurance, down from 48.3 million in 2010, the year Obamacare was signed into law.

    Biden said, “And over the last two years, more than 10 million people have applied to start a small business. That’s more than any two years in all of recorded American history.”

    Facts First: This is true. There were about 5.4 million business applications in 2021, the highest since 2005 (the first year for which the federal government released this data for a full year), and about 5.1 million business applications in 2022. Not every application turns into a real business, but the number of “high-propensity” business applications – those deemed to have a high likelihood of turning into a business with a payroll – also hit a record in 2021 and saw its second-highest total in 2022.

    Trump’s last full year in office, 2020, also set a then-record for total and high-propensity applications. There are various reasons for the pandemic-era boom in entrepreneurship, which began after millions of Americans lost their jobs in early 2020. Among them: some newly unemployed workers seized the moment to start their own enterprises; Americans had extra money from stimulus bills signed by Trump and Biden; interest rates were particularly low until a series of rate hikes that began in the spring of 2022.

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  • One news publication had an AI tool write articles. It didn’t go well | CNN Business

    One news publication had an AI tool write articles. It didn’t go well | CNN Business


    New York
    CNN
     — 

    News outlet CNET said Wednesday it has issued corrections on a number of articles, including some that it described as “substantial,” after using an artificial intelligence-powered tool to help write dozens of stories.

    The outlet has since hit pause on using the AI tool to generate stories, CNET’s editor-in-chief Connie Guglielmo said in an editorial on Wednesday.

    The disclosure comes after CNET was previously called out publicly for quietly using AI to write articles and later for errors. While using AI to automate news stories is not new – the Associated Press began doing so nearly a decade ago – the issue has gained new attention amid the rise of ChatGPT, a viral new AI chatbot tool that can quickly generate essays, stories and song lyrics in response to user prompts.

    Guglielmo said CNET used an “internally designed AI engine,” not ChatGPT, to help write 77 published stories since November. She said this amounted to about 1% of the total content published on CNET during the same period, and was done as part of a “test” project for the CNET Money team “to help editors create a set of basic explainers around financial services topics.”

    Some headlines from stories written using the AI tool include, “Does a Home Equity Loan Affect Private Mortgage Insurance?” and “How to Close A Bank Account.”

    “Editors generated the outlines for the stories first, then expanded, added to and edited the AI drafts before publishing,” Guglielmo wrote. “After one of the AI-assisted stories was cited, rightly, for factual errors, the CNET Money editorial team did a full audit.”

    The result of the audit, she said, was that CNET identified additional stories that required correction, “with a small number requiring substantial correction.” CNET also identified several other stories with “minor issues such as incomplete company names, transposed numbers, or language that our senior editors viewed as vague.”

    One correction, which was added to the end of an article titled “What Is Compound Interest?” states that the story initially gave some wildly inaccurate personal finance advice. “An earlier version of this article suggested a saver would earn $10,300 after a year by depositing $10,000 into a savings account that earns 3% interest compounding annually. The article has been corrected to clarify that the saver would earn $300 on top of their $10,000 principal amount,” the correction states.

    Another correction suggests the AI tool plagiarized. “We’ve replaced phrases that were not entirely original,” according to the correction added to an article on how to close a bank account.

    Guglielmo did not state how many of the 77 published stories required corrections, nor did she break down how many required “substantial” fixes versus more “minor issues.” Guglielmo said the stories that have been corrected include an editors’ note explaining what was changed.

    CNET did not immediately respond to CNN’s request for comment.

    Despite the issues, Guglielmo left the door open to resuming use of the AI tool. “We’ve paused and will restart using the AI tool when we feel confident the tool and our editorial processes will prevent both human and AI errors,” she said.

    Guglielmo also said that CNET has more clearly disclosed to readers which stories were compiled using the AI engine. The outlet took some heat from critics on social media for not making overtly clear to its audience that “By CNET Money Staff” meant it was written using AI tools. The new byline is just: “By CNET Money.”

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  • NYC mayor cites slower economic growth spurred by high office vacancy, cost of migrant crisis and health care, in budget address | CNN Business

    NYC mayor cites slower economic growth spurred by high office vacancy, cost of migrant crisis and health care, in budget address | CNN Business



    CNN
     — 

    New York City Mayor Eric Adams unveiled the state of the city’s economic outlook as part of a $102.7 billion budget proposal for 2024 on Thursday, highlighting slow economic growth despite spikes in tourism and jobs.

    Adams touted investments that will be made into public safety and affordable housing while promoting what he called “strong fiscal management.”

    The budget proposal will be voted on by the city council later this year.

    “We crafted this budget in the environment of economic and fiscal uncertainty. While our country has made an amazing recovery since the darkest days of the pandemic, the national economy has slowed as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to tamp down inflation,” Adams said on Thursday.

    Office vacancy rates are now at a record high as the Adams administration points to the continuing slow pace of workers returning to the office since the pandemic shut down in 2020. The increase in vacancies weakens the commercial office market, according to analysis from the preliminary budget.

    The Adams administration has also pointed to substantial fiscal challenges due to the migrant crisis, which they estimate is now at roughly 40,000 asylum seekers that have come into New York City since last April.

    New York City’s share from a pot of $785 million earmarked for major cities struggling to deal with the migrant crisis won’t cover all the costs from dealing with the situation, according to the preliminary budget.

    Rising health care costs and settling expired labor contracts are also listed as hurdles, according to the preliminary budget.

    Despite the challenges, employment in New York City has grown 4.8% -— outpacing the state, which is at 3.3% and the United States as a whole, which is at 3.2%, according to the preliminary budget.

    Adams said that 88% of jobs lost during the pandemic have been recovered, according to the preliminary budget.

    The Adams administration also boasts $8.3 billion in budget reserves, according to the preliminary budget, which also looks ahead to investments in affordable housing addressing and environmental concerns.

    Over the next 10 years, the city plans to invest $153 million into the development of Willets Point, transforming it from a gritty industrial zone in Queens into a bustling community with 2,500 affordable homes, a soccer stadium, a hotel and public space, according to the preliminary budget.

    The city will also aim to enhance security measures at schools, investing $47.5 million on top of the already $30 million in capital funding to make technological upgrades to doors and entryways, Adams said.

    The city has also earmarked $228 million for high-priority street reconstruction projects, $77 million for signal installation and $46 million to upgrade marine infrastructure in Manhattan and Staten Island.

    “We are focused on governing efficiently and measuring success, not by how much we spend but by our achievements,” Adams said.

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  • ‘We’re trapped’: Britons in homes with unsafe cladding see no way out as living costs soar | CNN

    ‘We’re trapped’: Britons in homes with unsafe cladding see no way out as living costs soar | CNN


    London
    CNN
     — 

    In May 2017, Sophie Bichener did what many in their twenties are unable to do: buy a home. She paid around £230,000 (around $295,000 at the time) for her two-bedroom apartment in a high-rise building in a town north of London, where a train could get her to work in the capital in less than half an hour. She had her foot on the first rung of Britain’s housing ladder, an increasingly difficult feat, and it felt like the only way was up.

    A month later, Bichener woke up to news that would change her life. A fire had broken out at a similar block to hers: the 24-story Grenfell Tower in west London, which was encased in flammable cladding. The material meant to keep out the wind and rain went up like a matchstick. The fire killed 72 people and left an entire community homeless and heartbroken. The ordeal sent Bichener into a panic. Was her building also at risk, she wondered?

    The burned remains of Grenfell stood uncovered for months, looming over one of London’s richest boroughs. It became a monument that to many symbolized the disastrous effects of austerity – the decade-long policy of cost-cutting embarked on by the Conservatives in response to the financial crisis of 2008. The tragedy was made all the more stark by its surroundings: the public housing block is just a five-minute walk from Kensington properties worth tens of millions of pounds. Look one way: scarcely imaginable wealth. The other: a hulking symbol of a broken and divided Britain.

    In the wake of the fire, there was a wave of promises from politicians that things would change – that building safety would be improved, social housing reformed, and that responsibility would be taken for the government agenda of public spending cuts, deregulation and privatization that acted as kindling for the tragedy that unfolded.

    But in the five years since, Britons living in tower blocks with unsafe cladding have found themselves stuck in a perpetual state of limbo. CNN spoke with 10 people, who all say they are paralyzed by fear that their buildings could catch fire at any moment, and crippled by costs thrust upon them to fix safety defects that were not their fault – despite the government promising they would not have to “pay a penny.”

    Now, their problems are compounded by a fresh disaster: a spiraling cost-of-living crisis. As energy prices and inflation soar, residents like Bichener are facing an impossible situation, burdened not only by sky-high bills but also the eye-watering expense of remediating properties that now feel more like prisons than homes.

    Residents told CNN they were living in a perpetual state of anxiety, inundated by text alerts informing them of mounting bills and waiting on tenterhooks for the next buzz of their phone. Some said their building insurance had quadrupled since they moved in, while others were burdened by ballooning service charges – hundreds of pounds a month for safety fixes that hadn’t been started.

    Many said they had left their mortgages on variable rates in the hopes they could eventually sell their apartments, but after the Bank of England hiked interest rates this fall their repayments had become untenable, with monthly payments almost doubling in some cases. Paired with the rising costs of living – more expensive energy, fuel and food – the residents CNN spoke with said they are finding themselves several thousand pounds a year poorer.

    When Bichener bought her flat in Vista Tower in Stevenage, a 16-story office block built in 1965 and converted into residential housing in 2016, there was “no mention” of fire hazards, she said. “When Grenfell happened we spoke to our local council just to double-check all the buildings in the town. We asked the management agent and freeholder [the owner of the apartment building and land] if they have any concerns. At that point, everyone was saying no, all these buildings are good,” Bichener told CNN.

    Vista Tower, right, in Stevenage. Britons living in unsafe buildings remain haunted by the memory of Grenfell.

    But there were soon signs of trouble. The developer that built the block put itself into liquidation – the first “red flag,” Bichener said. Emails to the freeholder went unanswered – the second. Then confirmation: In 2019, two years after Grenfell, the management agent reported that the building was unsafe. An inspection had found an array of hazards not previously listed.

    After the revelations, a group of former Grenfell residents came to visit Vista Tower to raise awareness about the nationwide cladding crisis. Bichener said that one man who had lost a family member in the Grenfell fire told her he was struck by the similarities: “He said he went cold.”

    In November 2020, she was hit with a life-changing bill from the freeholder. “The whole project, all of the remediation, came to about £15 million.” Split between the leaseholders, it worked out to be about £208,000 per flat.

    That bill – almost the same price she initially paid for the flat – has hung over Bichener’s head since. The government has offered little help and the political chaos in Britain has made matters worse. There have been seven housing secretaries in the five years since Grenfell, as the governing Conservative Party remains embroiled in internal strife. Some have begun to make progress – including threatening legal action to get the company that owns Vista Tower to pay up rather than passing the cost on to the residents – only to find themselves out of the job weeks later.

    “I can’t afford to live in this building anymore. I don’t want to pay the service charge, I don’t want to pay all of the horrific leaseholder costs. I just don’t want it. But I can’t get out.”

    Sophie Bichener

    Meanwhile, Bichener is still waiting for her life to get back on track. She is unable to sell, because banks are unwilling to lend against the property, and, in recent months, her mortgage, insurance and service charge have all shot up. The crippling costs meant she delayed getting married and has put off having children.

    “I can’t afford to live in this building anymore. I don’t want to pay the service charge, I don’t want to pay all of the horrific leaseholder costs. I just don’t want it. But I can’t get out,” Bichener, now 30 years old, said. “I’m trapped.”

    And she’s not alone. Hundreds of thousands of people are believed to be in the same boat, but the UK government has failed to commission a full audit, which means the scale of the impact is unclear. Peter Apps, deputy editor at Inside Housing, who has covered the story meticulously over the past five years, estimates there are likely more than 600,000 people in affected tall buildings and millions more in medium-rise towers – those between five and 10 stories. CNN has been unable to verify the precise number.

    The problems playing out now are the result of decades of poor policy choices, according to Apps. His new book detailing the Grenfell tragedy and subsequent inquiry, “Show Me the Bodies,” claims the UK “let Grenfell happen” through a combination of “deregulation, corporate greed and institutional indifference.”

    Evidence presented to the Grenfell Tower Inquiry found that the local council, which managed the building, had made a £300,000 ($389,400) saving by switching higher quality zinc cladding to a cheaper aluminum composite material (ACM). This meant for an additional £2,300 ($3,000) per flat, the fire might have been prevented.

    Any regulations demanding developers use better quality materials were seen as being “anti-business,” Apps told CNN. Developers did not even have to use qualified fire safety inspectors to carry out checks on their buildings – just individuals the developers themselves deemed to be “competent.”

    Five years on, the Grenfell victims' families are still waiting for answers -- and thousands are waiting for their buildings to be made safe.

    So extensive was the deregulation that the problems were not confined just to high-rise tower blocks – or even to cladding. Instead, many low-rise buildings suffer from problems ranging from poor fire cavities to flammable insulation.

    “The cladding wasn’t the issue at all,” said Jennifer Frame, a 44-year-old travel industry analyst, who lived in Richmond House in south-west London. “It was the fact that it was a timber frame building, with a cavity between that and the cladding,” she added, a safety defect that was confirmed by an inspection report.

    One night in September 2019, a fire broke out in a flat in Richmond House. Rather than being contained in one room, the cavity acted “like a chimney,” Frame said. An independent report commissioned by the building owner, Metropolitan Thames Valley Housing Association, and included in written evidence submitted to the UK parliament by residents, revealed that the cavity barriers were either “defective” or “entirely missing” at Richmond House, allowing the fire to spread “almost unhindered” through the 23-flat block.

    “The use of materials such as ACM within cladding systems has rightly attracted a lot of attention since Grenfell. It is now clear that there is a much wider failure by construction companies,” the residents said in their submission.

    Cladding is meant to keep buildings dry and warm, but lax regulations have resulted in flammable materials being used in many cases.

    Sixty residents lost their homes that night. Three years later, Frame is still living in temporary accommodation in the same borough of London, while paying the mortgage for her property which no longer exists. Perversely, she said she feels lucky that it’s only the mortgage – and not the monumental cost of remediations – that she’s on the hook for.

    “I do consider myself – for lack of a better word – one of the lucky ones, as we don’t have the threat of bankruptcy hanging over our head any more,” she said.

    CNN reached out for comment to the developer of Richmond House, Berkeley Group, but did not receive a reply. Berkeley Group has previously denied liability.

    Years of delay and disputes over who should cover the cost, combined with the sheer stress of living in unsafe buildings, have weighed heavily on residents.

    Bichener moved back to her parents’ house in 2020. “I just couldn’t face being there,” she said. “I ended up on anti-anxiety and anti-depression medication just from being in those four walls in a pandemic, in a dangerous home, with a life-changing sum of money that would potentially bankrupt me over my head.”

    At a rally for the End Our Cladding Scandal campaign, she recalled being with a group of people her age and how they all broke down in tears. “They’re the only people who understand the situation you’re in. Everyone’s having huge crises over this.”

    Their options are limited. Most can’t sell their properties, since banks won’t offer mortgages against them. Even if banks were to reverse this policy, it is unclear whether there would be a demand for them, given the spiraling costs of borrowing. According to the residents CNN spoke with, a scant few have been able to sell to cash buyers – but often at a 60-80% loss.

    Some have become “resentful landlords,” a term used by residents who are unable to sell their properties, but are so desperate to move out that they rent it out cheaply to others. Lilli Houghton, 30, rents out her flat in Leeds, a city in the north of England, at a loss to a new tenant. She still pays the service charge for her flat, while also renting a new place elsewhere.

    Most have no choice but to wait – but five years has felt like an eternity. When Zoe Bartley, a 29-year-old lawyer, bought her one-bedroom apartment in Chelmsford, a city in Essex, she thought she’d sell it within a few years to move into a family home.

    But she hasn’t been able to sell. She found a buyer in January 2020 – but their mortgage was declined after an inspection of the building found a number of fire safety defects.

    Bartley’s 15-month-old son still sleeps in her bedroom. When her two stepchildren come to stay, “they have to sleep in the living room,” she said. “When they were four and five and I’d just started dating their dad,” they were excited to have sleepovers in the living room. Now they’re nine and 10, “it’s just pathetic,” Bartley said.

    Bartley said she struggles to sleep knowing that a fire could break out at night. Others who spoke to CNN say they have trained their children on what to do when the alarms go off.

    Earlier this year, residents in unsafe buildings began to see some fledgling signs of progress. In a letter to developers, the then-housing secretary, Michael Gove, said it was “neither fair nor decent that innocent leaseholders … should be landed with bills they cannot afford to fix problems they did not cause.” He set out a plan to work with the industry to find a solution.

    First, he gave developers two months “to agree to a plan of action to fund remediation costs,” estimated at £4 billion (around $5.4 billion). That deadline passed with no agreement reached.

    To force developers’ hands, the Building Safety Act was passed into law in April, which requires the fire safety defects in all buildings above 11 meters to be fixed and created a fund to help cover the costs. The act implemented a “waterfall” system: Developers would be expected to pay first, but, if they are unable to, then the cost would fall to the building owners. If they are also unable to pay, only then would the cost fall to the leaseholders. Leaseholders’ costs were capped at £10,000 ($11,400), or £15,000 ($17,000) in London, for those who met certain criteria. The government asked 53 companies to sign this pledge; many did.

    For many residents, this came as a relief. They had faced life-changing bills for years, but the cap meant they wouldn’t be totally wiped out. It seemed the worst of their worries were over.

    But there was a problem: The pledge made by developers wasn’t legally binding. Even though the government has made money available for remediation, no mechanism has yet forced any developers to make use of it.

    Bichener still doesn't know when remediation work on Vista Tower will begin, how long it will take, or who will pay for it.

    One resident explained to CNN: “Prior to Michael Gove, your building owner could give you a bill to replace the cladding. They’re now not able to do that anymore, but that doesn’t mean your building gets fixed.”

    The government tried again. In July it published contracts to turn the “pledge into legally binding undertakings.” If developers signed the contract, this would commit them to remediating their buildings. Still, there was nothing obliging the developers to sign these contracts – and so none did.

    In October, Vista Tower – where Bichener lives – came under scrutiny. Then-Housing Secretary Simon Clarke set a 21-day deadline for Grey GR, the owner of the building, to commit to fixing it. “The lives of over 100 people living in Vista Tower have been put on hold,” Clarke said. “Enough is enough.” Bichener stressed her building was just one among thousands in need of remediation, but welcomed this as a “step in the right direction.”

    But when that deadline came, Clarke was already out of the job. He had been appointed by former UK Prime Minister Liz Truss, but after her six-week premiership came to an end, Clarke was replaced in the subsequent reshuffle. The deadline passed without Grey GR making any commitment.

    Gove was reappointed by new Prime Minister Rishi Sunak as Clarke’s successor in October. In response to questions from CNN, the UK’s Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities (DLUHC) confirmed that the government has started formal proceedings against Grey GR.

    “We are finalizing the legally binding contracts that developers will sign to fix their unsafe buildings, and expect them to do so very soon,” a DLUHC spokesperson said in a statement.

    “I think the ‘who’s paying’ question will drag on for many years. That might be through court cases and tribunals. But I don’t see how it will be resolved.”

    Sophie Bichener

    Grey GR told CNN that it was “absolutely committed to carrying out the remediation works required,” but that they had not started yet due to obstacles in receiving government funds.

    “Issues with gaining access to [the Building Safety Fund], created by Government, have been, and remain, the fundamental roadblock to progress,” Grey GR said in a statement, adding that the security of residents was of the “utmost priority” and that it was taking steps to make buildings safer.

    But, according to Bichener, residents are no safer than they were five years ago. All that has changed is that, legally, they will no longer have to pay tens or hundreds of thousands of pounds to fix their buildings.

    That hasn’t stopped building owners from seeking funds from residents though. “The amount of £208,430.04 is outstanding in connection with [your] property,” read a letter sent to a resident of Vista Tower by the building owner in November. “We would appreciate your remittance within the next seven days.”

    In the meantime, life for the residents of these buildings goes on. Since speaking to CNN, Bichener got married. She and her husband are both paying off their own mortgages until she is able to sell her flat. For years they had been “stressed,” she said, asking “do we tie ourselves together and have these two properties?” But they decided they couldn’t put their lives on pause forever because of her Vista Tower nightmare.

    “I want to have left,” Bichener said of where she wants to be, a year from now. “The dream is that I no longer own that property and I am long gone and I never have to see it or visit it again.

    “But if I’m realistic, I think we’ll be in the same situation. I think the ‘who’s paying’ question will drag on for many years. That might be through court cases and tribunals. But I don’t see how it will be resolved.”

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  • Harvey Weinstein is convicted of 3 of 7 charges, including rape, in his Los Angeles sexual assault trial | CNN

    Harvey Weinstein is convicted of 3 of 7 charges, including rape, in his Los Angeles sexual assault trial | CNN



    CNN
     — 

    Disgraced movie mogul Harvey Weinstein was found guilty Monday of rape and sexual assault against one of four women he was accused of assaulting in Los Angeles – a significant conviction in the second trial of a man at the center of allegations that fueled the global #MeToo movement.

    Weinstein, who prosecutors said used his Hollywood influence to lure women into private meetings and assault them, was found guilty of three of seven charges against him.

    After weeks of emotional testimony and 10 days of deliberations, jurors in Los Angeles also acquitted Weinstein of one count of sexual battery by restraint against a massage therapist in a hotel room in 2010. They were a hung jury on one count of sexual battery by restraint, one count of forcible oral copulation and one count of rape related to two other women – including Jennifer Siebel Newsom, a filmmaker and first partner to California Gov. Gavin Newsom.

    The three charges Weinstein was convicted of – rape, sexual penetration by foreign object and forcible oral copulation – were all tied to one of his accusers, a model and actress who testified the movie mogul assaulted her in a Beverly Hills hotel room in February 2013.

    The woman, identified as Jane Doe 1 in court, was the first to testify in the trial.

    “Harvey Weinstein forever destroyed a part of me that night in 2013. I will never get that back. The criminal trial was brutal. Weinstein’s lawyers put me through hell on the witness stand. But I knew I had to see this through the end, and I did… I hope Harvey Weinstein never sees the outside of a prison cell during his lifetime,” Jane Doe 1 said in a statement released through her attorney.

    Weinstein had pleaded not guilty to all seven charges against him.

    “Harvey is obviously disappointed, however hopefully because with this particular accuser there are good ground to appeal based on time and location of alleged events,” Weinstein’s spokesperson Juda Engelmayer said in a statement. “He is grateful the jury took their time to deliberate on the other counts and he is prepared to continue fighting for his innocence.”

    Weinstein faces a possible sentence of 24 years in prison for the Los Angeles conviction, according to the Los Angeles District Attorney’s Office. The once-powerful film producer is already serving a 23-year sentence for a 2020 New York rape conviction.

    Jurors will return to court Tuesday to consider aggravating factors to help determine the outcome of Weinstein’s sentencing hearing, according to the DA’s office.

    The District Attorney’s office will meet to determine whether to retry the counts on which the jury could not agree, officials said.

    Elizabeth Fegan, an attorney representing Siebel Newsom, who was identified in court as Jane Doe 4, said they were disappointed the jury could not reach a unanimous verdict on the charges related to her client.

    “Harvey Weinstein will never be able to rape another woman. He will spend the rest of his life behind bars where he belongs. Harvey Weinstein is a serial predator and what he did was rape,” Siebel Newsom said in a statement. “Throughout the trial, Weinstein’s lawyers used sexism, misogyny, and bullying tactics to intimidate, demean, and ridicule us survivors. This trial was a stark reminder that we as a society have work to do. To all survivors out there – I see you, I hear you, and I stand with you.”

    Gov. Newsom also released a statement, saying, “I am so incredibly proud of my wife and all the brave women who came forward to share their truth and uplift countless survivors who cannot. Their strength, courage and conviction is a powerful example and inspiration to all of us. We must keep fighting to ensure that survivors are supported and that their voices are heard.”

    The Los Angeles jury reached its verdict after deliberating for a total of 41 hours – longer than the New York jury in Weinstein’s first criminal trial, in which he was convicted of criminal sex act and third-degree rape after 26 hours of deliberations. His attorneys have appealed that conviction, which put more attention on the outcome of the trial in Los Angeles.

    Jane Doe 2, who was identified as Lauren Young, told her attorney Gloria Allred by phone she was happy Weinstein was convicted on some counts despite there being a mistrial on her count, Allred said in a news conference after the verdict.

    “I am relieved that Harvey Weinstein has been convicted because he deserves to be punished for the crimes that he committed, and he can no longer use his power to intimidate and sexually assault more women,” Young said in a statement read by Allred.

    The weekslong trial saw emotional testimony from Weinstein’s accusers – a model, a dancer, a massage therapist and Siebel Newsom – all of whom were asked to recount the details of their allegations against him, provide details of meetings with the producer from years ago, and explain their reactions to the alleged assaults.

    Weinstein initially faced 11 charges, but four counts connected to an unnamed woman were dropped without explanation. She did not testify in the trial.

    In closing arguments, Los Angeles County Deputy District Attorney Marlene Martinez called Weinstein a “titan” who used his power in Hollywood to prey on and silence women.

    “Rapists rape. You can look at the pattern,” fellow prosecutor Paul Thompson told jurors.

    Meanwhile, Weinstein’s attorneys maintained the allegations were either fabricated or occurred consensually as part of a “transactional relationship” with the movie producer, repeatedly saying there is no evidence of assault.

    Defense attorney Alan Jackson called the accusers “fame and fortune seekers.”

    The trial in Los Angeles also included testimony from other witnesses, including experts, law enforcement, friends of accusers and former aides to Weinstein.

    Additionally, four women testified they were subjected to similar behavior by Weinstein in other jurisdictions.

    Each morning at trial, Weinstein was brought from a correctional facility and wheeled into the Los Angeles courtroom wearing a suit and tie and holding a composition notebook.

    His accusers all began their oftentimes emotional testimonies by identifying him in the courtroom as he looked on.

    “He’s wearing a suit, and a blue tie and he’s staring at me,” Siebel Newsom said last month, before what was one of the most emotional moments of the trial. She testified Weinstein raped her in a hotel room in 2005.

    During the trial, defense attorney Jackson asked jurors if they could “accept what (the Jane Does) say as gospel,” arguing what they said was a lack of forensic evidence supporting their claim.

    “Five words that sum up the entirety of the prosecution’s case: ‘Take my word for it,’” Jackson said. “‘Take my word for it that he showed up at my hotel room unannounced. Take my word for it that I showed up at his hotel room. Take my word for it that I didn’t consent. Take my word for it, that I said no.’ “

    Siebel Newsom described an hourslong “cat-and-mouse period,” which preceded her alleged assault. She, like other accusers, described feeling “frozen” that day.

    Attorneys for Weinstein do not deny the incident occurred, but said he believed it was consensual.

    Jackson called the incident “consensual, transactional sex,” adding: “Regret is not the same thing as rape. And it’s important we make that distinction in this courtroom.”

    In her closing arguments, Martinez highlighted the women who testified chose to do so despite knowing they would face tough conditions in court.

    “The truth is that, as you sit here, we know the despicable behavior the defendant engaged in. He thought he was so powerful that people would … excuse his behavior,” Martinez said. “That’s just Harvey being Harvey. That’s just Hollywood. And for so long that’s what everyone did. Everyone just turned their heads.”

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  • Housing slump likely to continue but some see hopeful signs ahead | CNN Business

    Housing slump likely to continue but some see hopeful signs ahead | CNN Business

    A version of this story first appeared in CNN Business’ Before the Bell newsletter. Not a subscriber? You can sign up right here.


    New York
    CNN
     — 

    Mortgage rates have ticked down recently, but are still up dramatically from a year ago thanks to the surge in long-term bond yields as the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates.

    While that’s already had a negative impact on the housing market, we’ll get more details this week about how much worse the damage has become.

    A long list of housing data is on tap. On Tuesday the US Census Bureau will report housing starts and building permits figures for November, followed by Friday’s release of new home sales data for the same month. In between that will be the November existing home sales numbers from the National Association of Realtors on Wednesday, as well as weekly data on mortgage rates and applications on Thursday.

    For the past few months, existing and new home sales have been steadily declining because of the spike in rates and the fact that home prices remain stubbornly high for first-time buyers. Housing starts and building permits have been choppier on a month-to-month basis, but those figures are both down from a year ago.

    Still, there are some promising signs that the worst could soon be over. Shares of Lennar

    (LEN)
    , one of the largest homebuilders in the US, rallied after reporting earnings last week. Revenue topped forecasts and the company’s guidance for the number of homes it expected to deliver next year was a little higher than analysts’ estimates as well.

    Lennar investors “may be looking ahead to 2023, perhaps crossing the valley from recession to potential recovery,” according to CFRA Research analyst Kenneth Leon.

    Others in the industry are cautiously optimistic as well.

    According to data from Amherst Group, an investment firm that buys single-family homes to rent out, it’s important to put the recent slide in prices in context.

    Amherst said home prices are still up about 40% from pre-pandemic levels. So even a further drop of about 15% would merely bring them to mid-2021 levels. In other words, this isn’t like the mid-2000s real estate bubble bursting.

    It’s also worth noting that the job market is still strong and wages are growing. What’s more, many consumers still have decent levels of excess savings thanks to pandemic era government stimulus.

    That all amounts to a few good reasons why the housing market could avoid a severe and prolonged slump.

    “The U.S. housing market is still supported by a tight labor market, the lock-in effect of low fixed mortgage rates for existing homeowners, tight mortgage underwriting, low leverage in the mortgage sector, and low housing supply,” said Brandywine fixed-income analyst Tracy Chen in a report this month.

    “We believe we can avoid a severe housing downturn like the one in the Global Financial Crisis,” Chen added.

    Others point out that even though housing sales may remain weak due to high home prices and still elevated mortgage rates, the good news is that most existing homeowners are still paying their monthly mortgage on time.

    Again, that’s a stark contrast from 2008 when many people with subprime loans or borrowers with poor credit histories were unable to keep up with their mortgage payments.

    “Housing is not bringing down the economy. Yes, the housing market has been impacted. But mortgage delinquencies are still low,” said Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management.

    There aren’t a ton of companies reporting their latest earnings this week. But the few that are could give more clues about the financial health of consumers and the state of corporate spending.

    Cereal giant General Mills

    (GIS)
    will release earnings on Tuesday. Analysts are expecting a slight increase in both sales and profit. Consumers may be growing increasingly wary about inflation and the broader economy, but they’re still eating their Wheaties. Shares of General Mills

    (GIS)
    have soared nearly 30% this year.

    Analysts are less optimistic about the outlooks for sneaker king and Dow component Nike

    (NKE)
    , used car retailer CarMax

    (KMX)
    and memory chip maker Micron

    (MU)
    , whose semiconductors are used in devices ranging from cell phones and computers to cars.

    Earnings are expected to decline for these three companies. They won’t be the only leaders of Corporate America to report weak results.

    According to data from FactSet, fourth-quarter earnings for S&P 500 companies are expected to decline 2.8% from a year ago. Analysts have been busy cutting their forecasts too. John Butters, senior earnings analyst at FactSet, noted in a report that fourth-quarter profits were expected to rise 3.7% as recently as September 30.

    Investors are also going to be paying very close attention to what companies say in their earnings reports about their outlooks for 2023. Analysts currently are anticipating earnings growth of 5.3% for 2023. That could be too optimistic… especially if companies start cutting their own forecasts due to worries about the broader economy.

    “Odds of a recession are pretty high,” said Vincent Reinhart, chief economist and macro strategist at Dreyfus & Mellon. “That will have a knock-on effect for corporate earnings. Higher rates and weaker earnings suggest more pain for stocks.”

    Monday: Germany Ifo business climate index

    Tuesday: US housing starts and building permits; China sets loan prime rate; Bank of Japan interest rate decision; earnings from General Mills, Nike, FedEx

    (FDX)
    and Blackberry

    (BB)

    Wednesday: US existing home sales; Germany consumer confidence; earnings from Rite Aid

    (RAD)
    , Carnival

    (CCL)
    , Cintas

    (CTAS)
    , Toro

    (TTC)
    and Micron

    Thursday: US weekly jobless claims; US Q3 GDP (third estimate); earnings from CarMax

    (KMX)
    and Paychex

    Friday: US personal income and spending; US PCE inflation; US new home sales; US durable goods orders; US U. of Michigan consumer sentiment; Japan inflation; UK markets close early

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  • The Grinch comes for retailers | CNN Business

    The Grinch comes for retailers | CNN Business

    A version of this story first appeared in CNN Business’ Before the Bell newsletter. Not a subscriber? You can sign up right here. You can listen to an audio version of the newsletter by clicking the same link.


    New York
    CNN
     — 

    Weaker-than-expected retail sales in November pummeled market sentiment on Thursday and raised the odds that the Federal Reserve’s inflation-fighting interest rate hikes would push the economy into recession.

    What’s happening: US retail sales, which measure the total amount of money that stores make from selling goods to customers, fell 0.6% in November, the weakest performance in nearly a year. The drop concerned economists who had expected monthly sales to shrink by just 0.1%. It’s also a sharp reversal from October’s sales increase of 1.3%.

    That’s a bad sign for the economy. Just last month Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan told CNN that the continued strength of the US consumer is nearly single-handedly staving off recession. Consumer spending is a major driver of the economy, and the last two months of the year can account for about 20% of total retail sales — even more for some retailers, according to National Retail Federation data.

    Market mania: The weak report means that spending faltered just as the holiday season started, a critical time for retailers to ramp up profits and get rid of excess inventory. Investors weren’t too happy about that.

    Shares of Costco

    (COST)
    closed Thursday 4.1% lower, Target

    (CBDY)
    fell by 3.2%, Macy’s

    (M)
    dropped 3.5% and Abercrombie & Fitch

    (ANF)
    was down 6.2%.

    The entire sector took a blow — the VanEck Retail ETF, with Amazon

    (AMZN)
    , Home Depot

    (HD)
    and Walmart

    (WMT)
    as its top three holdings, fell by 2.2%. The SPDR S&P Retail ETF, which follows all S&P retail stocks, was down 2.9%.

    Weak sales are likely to continue, say analysts, and if they do, then retailers’ bottom lines and fourth-quarter earnings will suffer.

    “The headwinds of the past year are catching up to consumers and forcing them to be more conservative in their holiday shopping this winter,” warned Morgan Stanley economist Ellen Zentner in a note.

    The Fed factor: November’s report could indicate that consumers are feeling the double-punch of sky-high inflation and painful interest rate hikes from the central bank. This retail sales data adds to recessionary concerns, as it suggests that consumers may be becoming more cautious with their spending.

    “Households are increasingly relying on their savings to sustain their spending, and many families are resorting to credit to offset the burden of high prices. These trends are unsustainable, and the current credit splurge is a true risk, especially for families at the lower end of the income spectrum,” said Gregory Daco and Lydia Boussour, economists at EY Parthenon.

    While American bank accounts are still fairly robust, they’re beginning to dwindle. In the third quarter of 2022, credit card balances jumped 15% year over year. That’s the largest annual jump since the New York Fed began keeping track of the data in 2004.

    “Against this backdrop, we expect consumers will rein in their spending further in coming months,” said Daco and Boussour. “Real consumer spending should see modest growth in the final quarter of the year, but we expect it will barely grow in 2023.”

    Bottom line: If Bank of America’s Moynihan was right, the US economy is in trouble.

    US mortgage rates came in lower once again this week, marking the fifth consecutive drop in a row.

    The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.31% in the week ending December 15, down from 6.33% the week before, according to Freddie Mac. A year ago, the 30-year fixed rate was 3.12%, reports my colleague Anna Bahney.

    That’s a sharp reversal from the upward trend in rates we’ve seen for most of 2022. Those increases were spurred by the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented campaign of harsh interest rate hikes to tame soaring inflation. But mortgage rates have tumbled in the last several weeks, following data that showed inflation may have finally reached its peak.

    The Fed announced on Wednesday that it will continue to raise interest rates — albeit by a smaller amount than it has been.

    “Mortgage rates continued their downward trajectory this week, as softer inflation data and a modest shift in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy reverberated through the economy,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist.

    “The good news for the housing market is that recent declines in rates have led to a stabilization in purchase demand,” he added. “The bad news is that demand remains very weak in the face of affordability hurdles that are still quite high.”

    American regulators have been granted unprecedented access to the full audits of Chinese companies like Alibaba

    (BABA)
    and JD.com

    (JD)
    after threatening to kick the tech giants off US stock exchanges if they did not receive the data.

    The announcement marks a major breakthrough in a yearslong standoff over how Chinese companies listed on Wall Street should be regulated. It will come as a huge relief for these firms and investors who have invested billions of dollars in them, reports my colleague Laura He.

    “For the first time in history, we are able to perform full and thorough inspections and investigations to root out potential problems and hold firms accountable to fix them,” Erica Williams, chair of the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board, said in a statement Thursday, adding that such access was “historic and unprecedented.”

    More than 100 Chinese companies had been identified by the US securities regulator as facing delisting in 2024 if they did not hand over the audits of their financial statements.

    On Friday, China’s securities regulator said it’s looking forward to working with US officials to continue promoting future audit supervision of companies listed in the United States.

    There are more than 260 Chinese companies listed on US stock exchanges, with a combined market capitalization of more than $770 billion, according to recent calculations posted by the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission.

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