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  • Rain rates in California during newest storm may reach 1 inch per hour | CNN

    Rain rates in California during newest storm may reach 1 inch per hour | CNN



    CNN
     — 

    Millions of Californians already hammered by ferocious snowfall were hit Thursday by a new storm, with torrential rain threatening to cause dangerous flooding and the Weather Prediction Center increasing its excessive rainfall outlook for parts of the state to a level 4 of 4.

    “If you have feet of snow on your roof, all of a sudden that’s going to get very, very heavy. That snow is going to absorb the rainfall,” CNN Meteorologist Chad Myers warned Thursday.

    “And then in the higher elevations, it will wash away some of that snowfall. So, rain on snow will begin to fill up parts of the San Joaquin Valley.”

    About 16.7 million people are under flood watches in California and slices of Nevada. Hourly rainfall rates will steadily increase in intensity across California from Thursday overnight through Friday morning, potentially reaching 1 inch per hour.

    The level 4 excessive rainfall warning is targeted to two sections in central California – the coast from Salinas southward to San Luis Obispo and areas in the foothills of the Sierras near Fresno – Thursday overnight into Friday. The last time the Bay Area and Central Coast were in “high risk” was in 2010, the National Weather Service office in San Francisco said.

    Much of the state is under some risk of excessive rainfall Thursday and Friday.

    “An atmospheric river will bring anomalous moisture to California Thursday and Friday. The combination of heavy precipitation and rapid snow melt below 5,000 feet will result in flooding,” the prediction center said Wednesday, adding that “numerous” floods are likely for millions.

    The most vulnerable areas for flooding from rain and snowmelt are creeks and streams in the foothills of the Sierra Nevada, the prediction center said.

    Higher elevations will see heavy, wet snow. “This will lead to difficult travel, and combined with an already deep snowpack, may lead to increasing impacts from the depth and weight of the snow,” the prediction center said.

    The bleak forecast spurred officials across central and Northern California to urge residents to prepare, with residents in one area advised to stock up on essentials for two weeks. Others were asked to use sandbags to protect their properties and clear their waterways to lessen any flooding impacts.

    “We are asking people to watch their news, stay informed, have a full tank of gas in case they need to evacuate, get snow off of their roof if they can, if it’s safe,” Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis told CNN on Thursday. “And just be very vigilant and prepared, because we are in the era of extreme weather, and that’s what we are seeing this week.”

    Here’s what the storm could bring:

    • Heavy rainfall: The National Weather Service in San Francisco forecasts rainfall totals through Sunday morning will be from 1.5-3 inches for most urban areas with 3-6 inches in some hilly areas. As many as 8 inches could fall on the Santa Cruz Mountains and locally up to 12 inches over some peaks and higher terrain of the Santa Lucia Mountains. The National Weather Service in Los Angeles is forecasting 2-4 inches across Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties, with some areas in the latter receiving as many as 10 inches through late Friday night. The Weather Prediction Center said: “The abnormally warm and wet conditions moving in are expected to cause rapid snowmelt.”

    • Ferocious winds: More than 15 million people across central and Northern California, northern Nevada and southwestern Idaho are under high wind alerts. Wind gusts could reach up to 55 mph across lower elevations and up to 70 mph across peaks and mountains. Strong winds could knock down power lines and trees – exacerbating thousands of existing power outages from previous storms that dumped heavy snow, particularly in higher elevations.

    • More intense snow: Parts of the Sierra Nevada above 8,000 feet could get hit with 8 feet of snow. And some higher elevations across southern Oregon and the Rocky Mountains in Idaho, Montana and Wyoming could get pounded by 2 feet of snowfall between Thursday and Friday.

    Already, 34 of California’s 58 counties are under a state of emergency issued by the governor’s office due to previous storms and this week’s severe weather. The state activated its flood operations center Thursday morning.

    The forecast also led some ski resorts to announce closings. Kirkwood Mountain Resort said it would not open Friday, as did the Northstar California resort and the Heavenly resort in South Lake Tahoe, on Nevada’s border with California.

    Meanwhile, the Eastern Sierra Avalanche Center issued a backcountry avalanche warning for sections of Mono County, according to the National Weather Service in Reno, Nevada.

    Many of the areas preparing for Thursday’s storm have not had a chance to recover from the multiple rounds of fierce snow that buried some neighborhoods and made roads inaccessible as residents ran low on essential supplies.

    In hard-hit San Bernardino County, one of the recent storms claimed the life of a resident in a car crash, the sheriff’s department told CNN on Wednesday.

    video thumbnail california snowbank 81year-old

    Grandson reveals 81-year-old’s reaction after surviving in snowbank for a week

    As the storm hits central California, some urban flooding along with flooding from the smaller creeks and streams is likely. Eventually, more roads are expected to flood as the main rivers rise, said Katrina Hand, a meteorologist at the weather service’s Sacramento office.

    San Francisco officials urged small businesses to clear storm drains, stock up on inventory, use sandbags and ensure equipment is properly stored. They also suggested employers consider adjusting their work schedules for workers’ safety.

    In Merced, crews tried to clear storm drains and fortify creek banks ahead of the storm.

    City officials said flooding from previous, deadly rounds of atmospheric rivers that battered much of the state in January has made the city’s water ways unsafe.

    Atmospheric rivers are long, narrow bands of moisture in the atmosphere that carry warm air and water vapor from the tropics.

    “The city urges all residents to avoid these waterways and walking paths,” Merced officials said. “Because of ground saturation and erosion from prior storms, expect to see more debris in creek flows.”

    In San Luis Obispo, city officials on Wednesday said residents should be informed on flood insurance policies and be prepared to protect their homes. On Thursday, they issued an evacuation order for residents south of the Arroyo Grande Creek Levee.

    Evacuation warnings were also issued for residents in low-lying areas of Santa Cruz County and for people in Tulare County.

    In the Big Sur area, officials urged residents to have enough food and other essentials for at least two weeks. The Big Sur area, a roughly 90-mile stretch of California’s central coast, is one of the area’s renowned tourist attractions with rugged cliffs, mountains and hidden beaches along the Pacific Coast Highway.

    In Kern County, home to Bakersfield, fire officials urged residents to create emergency kits and to be aware of escape routes and safe areas to seek shelter if needed. Officials also encouraged the use of sandbags to protect properties.

    And in Sacramento, city officials said they intend to open overnight warming centers beginning Friday in preparation for the expected heavy rainfall and low temperatures.

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  • Capitol Hill data breach more ‘extensive’ than previously known | CNN Politics

    Capitol Hill data breach more ‘extensive’ than previously known | CNN Politics



    CNN
     — 

    A sweeping cybersecurity breach of congressional members’ private information was more extensive than previously known and affects not only House lawmakers and their staff but also Senate employees.

    The Senate sergeant-at-arms alerted Senate staff about the breach Thursday in an email obtained by CNN.

    The compromised data is “extensive,” and includes sensitive data such as Social Security numbers, home addresses and information on Senate employees’ health insurance plans, the sergeant-at-arms said in the email, which urged Senate staff to freeze their family credit to guard against fraud.

    Law enforcement gave the sergeant-at-arms a list of Senate employees whose data was stolen, the email said, and the sergeant-at-arms was contacting those employees so they could protect themselves from fraud.

    Hundreds of US House members and staff also had their personally identifiable information stolen in the breach, which affected a DC health insurance service, CNN reported Wednesday.

    Punchbowl News first reported on the sergeant-at-arms’ email.

    The revelation that Senate staff also had their data stolen will only increase pressure from Capitol Hill on DC Health Link, the affected insurance service, to provide a full accounting of how the breach occurred.

    DC Health Link said Wednesday it had “initiated a comprehensive investigation” of the incident and is working with law enforcement. The FBI is involved in the investigation, the bureau said.

    It’s unclear how the data was accessed or who was responsible for the breach, but it immediately raised concerns among lawmakers that they could become the victims of identity theft, as many other Americans have in recent years.

    House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries have written a letter to DC Health Link expressing their concern over the breach, McCarthy previously told CNN.

    Others were less alarmed.

    “I can’t get all that worked up about this, honestly,” a Senate staffer told CNN Thursday night.

    China “got all my data already in the OPM hack,” the staffer added, referring to the 2014-2015 breach of the Office of Personnel Management that compromised millions of US government personnel records. US officials have blamed Chinese hackers for the breach, a charge Beijing denied.

    On a popular cybercrime forum this week, someone claimed to have sold the data belonging to DC Health Link. The advertisement for the stolen data, which CNN reviewed, claimed the leak affected 170,000 people and included Social Security numbers.

    CNN was unable to independently verify those claims.

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  • Senate confirms Biden’s IRS nominee Daniel Werfel | CNN Politics

    Senate confirms Biden’s IRS nominee Daniel Werfel | CNN Politics



    CNN
     — 

    The Senate voted Thursday to confirm Daniel Werfel, the former acting commissioner of the Internal Revenue Service, to lead the IRS.

    He was approved on a bipartisan 54-42 vote.

    Werfel’s confirmation to the agency comes after he was grilled by the Senate Committee on Finance last month on how he plans to utilize the money in new funding coming to the IRS over the next decade to revitalize the tax agency as taxpayers could see increased audit rates. Democrats approved the $80 billion for the agency last year when they approved the Inflation Reduction Act in a party-line vote. Democrats backed the funding in its bid to crack down on tax dodgers and to provide better services for taxpayers, arguing that the IRS could boost federal revenue by more than $100 billion over the 10-year time period if they collect more in taxes.

    But Republicans have made the IRS and the new funding a political target, claiming that the money will create additional audits for taxpayers.

    After Republicans took control of the House earlier this year, two of the party’s first legislative votes were aimed at the IRS. One bill called for rescinding roughly all the new funding for the agency and others called for abolishing the IRS altogether. However, it is highly unlikely that either bill will become law because Democrats still control the Senate.

    Werfel said last month he would follow through on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s previous directive that the IRS will not use the new funding to increase audit rates, relative to historic levels, for households making less than $400,000 a year.

    “If I am fortunate enough to be confirmed, the audit and compliance priorities will be focused on enhancing the IRS’ capabilities to ensure that America’s highest earners comply with applicable tax laws,” Werfel said at the February hearing.

    “If poor people are more likely to be audited than the wealthy, that is something I think potentially degrades public trust and needs to be addressed within the tax system,” he added.

    But ranking Republican committee member, Republican Sen. Mike Crapo of Idaho, said at the time he remains “very concerned” about how twhe funds will be used to increase tax enforcement, pointing out that Yellen’s directive “leaves a lot of wiggle room.”

    “I don’t expect to see wiggle room in this commitment,” Crapo told Werfel.

    The Inflation Reduction Act states that the new investment going to IRS is not “intended to increase taxes on any taxpayer or small business with a taxable income below $400,000.” However, there is some uncertainty about how the IRS will decide how it will ramp up audits.

    Moderate Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia voted against Werfel’s nomination. He has also opposed several of President Joe Biden’s other recent nominees.

    Manchin said his vote against Werfel had to do with the Biden administration ignoring the “congressional intent” in implementing the Inflation Reduction Act.

    “As far as the gentleman for the IRS, most qualified, he’ll do a good job. That was a message I’m sending because the president and his administration is not adhering to the piece of legislation called the Inflation Reduction Act,” Manchin said on “CNN This Morning” Thursday ahead of the vote, explaining his reasoning for voting against Werfel. “They have touted that as strictly an environmental bill.”

    Werfel was the acting IRS commissioner for seven months in 2013 during a difficult time for the agency. His predecessor had resigned following revelations that the agency targeted conservative groups seeking tax-exempt status for extra scrutiny.

    Before his stint at the IRS, Werfel worked for nearly 16 years at the White House’s Office of Management and Budget, where he served as deputy controller and later federal controller.

    After he left government, Werfel joined Boston Consulting Group, where he is currently a managing director and partner on the federal and public sector teams.

    This story has been updated with additional developments.

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  • Not touching Social Security could lead to 20% benefit cut within a decade | CNN Politics

    Not touching Social Security could lead to 20% benefit cut within a decade | CNN Politics



    CNN
     — 

    President Joe Biden and House Republicans have promised not to touch Social Security in their battle over cutting spending to address the nation’s debt ceiling crisis.

    While that vow is intended to indicate support of the popular entitlement program, it could actually lead to financial disaster.

    Tens of millions of senior citizens and other recipients could see their benefits slashed by at least 20% within a decade. The latest Congressional Budget Office projection found that Social Security’s retirement trust fund would be exhausted by 2032.

    “There’s a sense in which doing nothing does not preserve Social Security but affects the benefits that are not able to be paid out,” CBO Director Phillip Swagel said at a Bipartisan Policy Center event last month.

    Social Security has long been on shaky financial ground. As the US population ages, there are fewer workers paying into the program and supporting the ballooning number of beneficiaries, who are also living longer. In all, nearly 66 million retired workers, their dependents and survivors, disabled workers and their dependents receive monthly payments.

    Forecasts on when Social Security’s retirement and disability trust funds may be depleted differ by a few years. Social Security’s trustees last year pegged the date at 2035 if Congress doesn’t act.

    However, the entitlement program is also one of the third rails of American politics, so elected officials are hesitant to suggest any changes that could lead to benefit cuts.

    “Pretending this isn’t a problem, that this isn’t current law, is dishonest,” said Gordon Gray, the director of fiscal policy at the right-leaning American Action Forum. “And it is a choice – a number of policymakers are making this choice. And it is a major financial risk to the retirement benefits of tens of millions of Americans.”

    The last time Congress enacted a major overhaul, in 1983, Social Security was only months away from being able to pay full benefits. At that time, Democratic lawmakers who controlled the House agreed with Senate Republicans and GOP President Ronald Reagan to increase payroll taxes and gradually raise the normal retirement age from 65 to 67, among other reforms.

    While Biden has promised to strengthen Social Security and defend it from any cuts by Republicans, he has yet to lay out his vision for protecting the program. Ahead of his full budget release this week, the president on Tuesday unveiled a plan to bolster a key Medicare trust fund – which could be depleted as soon as 2028 – by raising taxes on higher-income earners and allowing Medicare to negotiate prices for even more drugs.

    There are several ways to put Social Security on more solid financial footing, though each has its opponents on Capitol Hill and in the White House. Lawmakers could raise the early retirement age, currently 62, or increase the normal retirement age again. They could hike the payroll tax rate, now 12.4% split between the employer and worker, or lift the cap on income subject to the levy, currently $160,200. Congress could also change the formula of the annual cost-of-living adjustment so it ramps up more slowly.

    However, it’s unlikely anything will be done in the near term, in part because of the current lack of bipartisanship in Washington, said Gary Engelhardt, economics professor at Syracuse University.

    “It’s only going to be more expensive, the longer you wait,” he said. “But Americans have a penchant for waiting to do things politically. So I just feel like nothing’s going to happen in the short run.”

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  • Buying bank stocks before a recession used to be madness. Not anymore | CNN Business

    Buying bank stocks before a recession used to be madness. Not anymore | CNN Business


    London
    CNN
     — 

    Investors are bucking tradition this year by piling into big bank stocks just as major economies are expected to either slow down or fall into recession.

    The Stoxx Europe 600 Banks index, a group of 42 big European banks, climbed 21% between the start of the year and late February — when it hit a five-year high — outperforming its broader benchmark index, the Euro Stoxx 600

    (SXXL)    . The KBW Bank Index, which tracks 24 leading US banks, has risen by a more modest 4% so far this year, slightly outpacing the broader S&P 500

    (DVS)    .

    Both bank-specific indexes have surged since lows hit last fall.

    The economic picture is far less rosy. The United States and the biggest economies in the European Union are expected to grow at a much slower rate this year than last, while UK output is likely to contract. A sudden recession “at some stage” is also a risk for the United States, former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers told CNN Monday.

    But the widespread economic weakness has coincided with high inflation, forcing central banks to raise interest rates. That’s been a boon for banks, helping them make heftier returns on loans to households and businesses, and as savers deposit more of their money into savings accounts.

    Rate hikes have buoyed the stocks of big banks, but so too has a greater confidence in their ability to weather economic storms 15 years after the 2008 global financial crisis nearly toppled them, fund managers and analysts told CNN.

    “Banks are, generally speaking, much stronger, more resilient, more capable to [withstand a] recession,” than in the past, said Roberto Frazzitta, global head of banking at consultancy Bain & Company.

    Interest rates in major economies started climbing last year as policymakers launched their campaigns against soaring inflation.

    The steep rate hikes followed a prolonged period of ultra-low borrowing costs that started in 2008. As the financial crisis ravaged economies, central banks slashed interest rates to unprecedented lows to incentivize spending and investment. And, for more than a decade, they barely budged.

    Banks are a less attractive bet for investors in that environment as lower interest rates often feed into lower returns for lenders.

    “[The] post-crisis period of very low interest rates was seen as very bad for bank profitability, it squeezed their margins,” said Thomas Mathews, senior markets economist at Capital Economics.

    But the rate hiking cycle that got underway last year, and shows few signs of abating, has changed investors’ calculations. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said Tuesday that interest rates would rise more than people anticipated.

    Higher potential returns for shareholders are drawing investors back into the sector. For example, the average dividend yield for bank stocks in Europe — the amount of money a company pays its shareholders every year as a proportion of its share price — is now around 7%, said Ciaran Callaghan, head of European equity research at Amundi, a French asset management firm.

    By comparison, the dividend yield for the S&P 500 currently stands at 2.1%, and for the Euro Stoxx 600 at 3.3%, according to Refinitiv data.

    European bank stocks have risen particularly sharply in the past six months.

    Mathews at Capital Economics attributed their outperformance relative to US peers partly to the fact that interest rates in the countries that use the euro are still closer to zero than in the United States, meaning that investors have more to gain from rates rising.

    It can also be put down to Europe’s remarkable reversal of fortune, he said.

    Wholesale natural gas prices in the region, which hit a record high in August, have tumbled back to their levels seen before the Ukraine war, and a much-feared energy shortage has been avoided this winter.

    “Only a few months ago people were talking about a very deep recession in Europe compared to the US,” Mathews said. “As those worries have unwound, European banks have done particularly well.”

    But European economies are still fragile. When economic activity slows down, bank stocks are typically among those hit hardest. That’s because banks’ earnings are, to varying extents, tied to borrowers’ ability to repay their loans, as well as to consumers’ and businesses’ appetite for more credit.

    This time around, though — unlike in 2008 — banks are in a much better position to withstand defaults on loans.

    After the global financial crisis, regulators sprang into action, requiring lenders, among other measures, to have a large capital cushion against future losses. Capital is made up of a bank’s own funds, rather than borrowed money such as customer deposits.

    Lenders must also hold enough cash, or assets that can be quickly converted into cash, to repay depositors and other creditors.

    Luc Plouvier, a senior portfolio manager at Van Lanschot Kempen, a Dutch wealth management firm, noted that banks had undergone “structural change” in the past decade.

    “A lot of the regulation that’s been put in place [has] forced these banks to be more liquid, to have much more [of a] capital buffer, to take less risk,” he said.

    Joost de Graaf, co-head of European credit at Van Lanschot Kempen, agreed.

    “There are not any hidden skeletons in [banks’] balance sheets as far as we know.”

    — Julia Horowitz contributed reporting.

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  • ‘We are in limbo:’ Student loan borrowers still face months of uncertainty about Biden’s forgiveness program | CNN Politics

    ‘We are in limbo:’ Student loan borrowers still face months of uncertainty about Biden’s forgiveness program | CNN Politics


    Washington
    CNN
     — 

    More than 40 million federal student loan borrowers could be eligible for up to $20,000 in debt forgiveness, but they will likely have to wait several more months before the Supreme Court rules on whether President Joe Biden can implement his proposed relief program.

    The Supreme Court heard oral arguments last week in two cases challenging Biden’s student loan forgiveness program, but justices aren’t expected to issue their decision until late June or early July.

    When the ruling comes will also determine when federal student loan payments, which have been paused due to the pandemic since March 2020, will restart.

    Some borrowers have been anxiously waiting for years to see if Biden would fulfill his campaign pledge to cancel some federal student loan debt. The president finally announced a forgiveness plan last August.

    But after 26 million people applied, the program was blocked by lower courts in November – before any debt could be canceled.

    “In some ways, it feels like we are one step closer now that they’ve heard the oral arguments, but until a decision is made, it still feels like we are in limbo,” said Lindsay Clausen, who has about $68,000 in student loan debt and works as an instructional designer at a university.

    Clausen, 33, filed for relief from Biden’s forgiveness program last fall as soon as the application was open, hoping the forgiveness would help her and her husband save for a new home and expand their family.

    “I felt relief, and then it was like a rug was pulled from underneath me,” Clausen said.

    “Whichever way SCOTUS (Supreme Court of the US) decides to rule, it will at least be nice to have an answer,” she added.

    The Biden administration has estimated that more than 40 million federal student loan borrowers would qualify for some level of debt cancellation, with roughly 20 million who would have their balance forgiven entirely, if the forgiveness program is allowed to move forward.

    But not everyone with a federally held student loan would qualify.

    Individual borrowers who earned less than $125,000 in either 2020 or 2021 and married couples or heads of households who made less than $250,000 annually in those years could see up to $10,000 of their federal student loan debt forgiven. Those with higher incomes would be excluded.

    If a qualifying borrower also received a federal Pell grant while enrolled in college, the individual is eligible for up to $20,000 of debt forgiveness. Pell grants are a key federal aid program that help students from the lowest-income families pay for college, but these borrowers are still more likely to struggle paying off their student loans.

    Student debt cancellation would deliver financial relief to millions of Americans, potentially helping them buy their first homes, start businesses or save for retirement.

    But those who have already paid off their student loans, or chose not to borrow money to go to college to begin with, would get nothing. And the estimated $400 billion cost of canceling some debt would shift to all taxpayers.

    At last week’s hearing, several of the conservative justices questioned whether that tradeoff is fair, while liberal Justice Sonia Sotomayor pushed back, arguing how many borrowers “don’t have friends or families or others who can help them make these payments.”

    The back-and-forth on fairness touches on one of the biggest complaints about the nation’s higher education system: many people feel they need to go to college, and as a result borrow money, to get ahead.

    Angel Enriquez, a 30-year-old meteorologist with about $61,000 in student loan debt, is one of those people.

    Angel Enriquez poses for a portrait at Bizzell Memorial Library at the University of Oklahoma on June 3, 2022.

    His parents, immigrants from Mexico, couldn’t afford to help him pay for college. Enriquez was wait-listed at a state school that had a meteorology program, so he instead enrolled at a more expensive school out of state. He is now pursuing a master’s degree, which he felt he needed to stand out in a competitive industry.

    “When you talk about fairness, it’s a complicated argument,” Enriquez said.

    “But if you talk to someone who comes from poverty, or someone who’s a person of color, they are going to benefit from the forgiveness program the most because they’re the ones that have to jump through extra financial hoops in order to get where everyone else in the educated country is,” he said.

    For some students, college degrees do not deliver the step up in the world they hoped for.

    Even though Blake Goddard worked part-time jobs while in college, he still had to borrow nearly $90,000 for his bachelor’s degree in network communications management from DeVry University. In an effort to land a higher-paying job in the information technology industry, he then earned his master’s degree, borrowing another $44,000.

    Despite those degrees, most of his jobs have been temporary contract positions, and many of his co-workers opted for getting lower-cost IT industry certifications rather than a four-year degree.

    Blake Goddard poses for a portrait in his home on June 10, 2022.

    Meanwhile, the Department of Education has found that DeVry University, a for-profit college, misled at least 1,800 borrowers with false advertising about job placement rates.

    While Goddard, 45, considers himself “one of the lucky ones” who would qualify for $20,000 of debt relief, the cancellation wouldn’t make too much of a dent in his more than $150,000 balance.

    His debt, Goddard said, is “so detrimental” to his American dream, which was to buy a house and have a family.

    “I was stupid enough to fall for it,” Goddard said about taking out student loans.

    “I wish we could make it so nobody else in this country falls into the same trap,” he added.

    Now, he’s committed to helping others avoid borrowing so much money for college and volunteers with an organization that helps students pursue careers in STEM fields.

    One criticism of Biden’s one-time forgiveness program is that it would do nothing to address the cost of college for future students.

    A more permanent solution to the college affordability problem would have to be created by Congress, but lawmakers have failed to pass any sweeping measure. A provision to make community college free was dropped from Biden’s Build Back Better agenda before it came to a vote in the House in 2021.

    The Biden administration is also working on changes to existing federal student loan repayment plans, which don’t need congressional approval, and that aim to make it easier for borrowers to pay for college.

    The Department of Education is currently finalizing a new income-driven repayment plan to lower monthly payments as well as the total amount borrowers pay back over time. In contrast to the one-time student loan cancellation program, the new repayment plan could help both current and future borrowers.

    Additionally, in July, changes will be made to the Public Service Loan Forgiveness program, which allows certain government and nonprofit employees to seek federal student loan forgiveness after making 10 years of qualifying payments. The changes will make it easier for some borrowers to receive debt forgiveness.

    If the Supreme Court ultimately gives the student loan forgiveness program the green light, it’s possible the government will begin issuing some debt cancellations fairly quickly. The administration has said it already approved 16 million applications for relief.

    But several of the conservative justices expressed skepticism last week about whether Biden has the power to implement his student loan forgiveness program.

    Lawyers for the government have remained confident that their plan is legal. They point to a 2003 law passed after the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks that grants the secretary of education power to make sure people are not worse off in respect to their student loans in the event of a national emergency.

    “I’m confident we’re on the right side of the law,” Biden told CNN a day after the oral arguments when asked if he was confident the administration would prevail in the case. “I’m not confident of the outcome of the decision yet.”

    If the Supreme Court strikes down Biden’s student loan forgiveness program, it could be possible for the administration to make some modifications to the policy and try again – though that process could take months.

    The pandemic pause on payments will remain in effect until either 60 days after the Supreme Court’s decision, or late August – whichever comes first.

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  • CFPB: What it does and why its future is in question | CNN Business

    CFPB: What it does and why its future is in question | CNN Business


    New York
    CNN
     — 

    The US Supreme Court decided this week to hear a case that will consider the constitutionality of funding for the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and, in doing so, test the constraints of US regulators’ power. The case would be heard in the fall, with a decision likely by summer 2024.

    But what is the CFPB? How does its work affect your wallet? And why is its future potentially at risk?

    The agency was created after the 2008 financial meltdown, as part of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act. That law was passed in the wake of the 2007 subprime mortgage crisis and the Great Recession that followed.

    The broad purpose of the CFPB is to protect consumers from financial abuses and to serve as the central agency for consumer financial protection authorities.

    Prior to its creation, as the agency notes on its site, “[c]onsumer financial protection had not been the primary focus of any federal agency, and no agency had effective tools to set the rules for and oversee the whole market.”

    The CFPB has regulatory authority over providers of many types of financial products and services, including credit cards, banking accounts, loan servicing, credit reporting and consumer debt collection.

    It is charged with implementing and enforcing consumer protection laws, making rules and issuing guidance for consumer financial institutions. And it is the place consumers can go to lodge complaints about financial products and services.

    Importantly, Dodd-Frank also gave the agency new authority to determine whether any given consumer financial product or service is unfair, deceptive or abusive and therefore unlawful.

    While there are critics of the agency’s current structure and funding, it has saved consumers money, made it easier for them to seek redress and to get better clarity and more tailored responses from companies when they have a problem with their accounts, loans or credit reports.

    “It has completely changed the consumer financial marketplace. Overall it has had a tremendous impact on making it more fair and transparent,” said Lauren Saunders, associate director of the National Consumer Law Center.

    For instance, the CFPB has taken action against bank overdraft policies. “Arguably, the focus on overdraft practices has led some banks to eliminate or reduce their overdraft fees,” said Christine Hines, legislative director of the National Association of Consumer Advocates.

    And it has gone after institutions for saddling consumers with pointless products, excessive fees and punitive terms.

    Both Hines and Saunders made a special note of CFPB’s actions against Wells Fargo, after the agency found the bank had been engaging in multiple abusive and unlawful consumer practices across several financial products between 2011 and 2022 — from auto loans to mortgage loans to bank accounts.

    Last month, the agency required the bank to pay more than $2 billion to customers who were harmed by such practices, plus a $1.7 billion fine that will go into a relief fund for victims.

    “More than 16 million accounts at Wells Fargo were subject to their illegal practices, including misapplied payments, wrongful foreclosures, and incorrect fees and interest charges,” the agency said in a blog post.

    In the area of mortgages, “CFPB has written rules to implement new protections so that mortgage lenders don’t make loans with tricks and traps that lead people to lose their homes,” Saunders said.

    It also has created other safeguards, including rules on how service providers should communicate with borrowers who want to find alternatives to foreclosure, Hines noted.

    Currently, the agency is in the midst of an effort to curb excessive or “junk” fees on a range of consumer financial products, such as credit card late fees.

    Critics of the CFPB have been trying for years to limit its power and independence, attacking the way the agency is structured and funded. Like federal banking regulators, its funding is not determined by lawmakers in Congress as part of the annual appropriations process. Rather, it gets its money from the Federal Reserve System’s earnings.

    “This nontraditional funding source limits congressional oversight of the agency and is the subject of legal challenges,” according to the Congressional Research Service.

    The latest challenge — arising from a federal appeals court ruling that CFPB’s funding violates the Constitution’s Appropriations Clause and separation of powers — is what the Supreme Court will take up in its October term.

    While it’s impossible to predict how the justices will rule, should they decide to uphold the appeals court ruling, that will put in doubt how the agency will be funded going forward, and whether it can continue to function effectively.

    It’s also unclear whether the agency’s actions and rule-making over the past 11 years would be invalidated, nor what impact it would have on banks and other financial institutions that have set up systems to be in compliance with CFPB rules and safe harbors.

    “The agency would be unable to do anything if the funding is invalidated. And prior rules could be challenged as the agency did not have a legal funding source that it could use to write those rules,” Cowen Washington Research Group analyst Jaret Seiberg said in a note to clients.

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  • US introduces new rules to protect water systems from hackers | CNN Politics

    US introduces new rules to protect water systems from hackers | CNN Politics


    Washington
    CNN
     — 

    The US Environmental Protection Agency on Friday announced new requirements for public water facilities to boost their cybersecurity while expressing concern that many facilities have failed to take basic steps to protect themselves from hackers.

    The new EPA memo requires state governments to audit the cybersecurity practices of public water systems — and then use state regulatory authorities to force water systems to add security measures if existing ones are deemed insufficient.

    “Cyberattacks that are targeting water systems pose a real and significant threat to our security,” EPA Assistant Administrator Radhika Fox told reporters Thursday.

    It’s the latest move in a full-court press by the Biden administration to use its regulatory and policy powers to try to raise the cyber defenses of US critical infrastructure that is frequently targeted by cybercriminals and foreign government-backed hackers.

    The EPA memo comes a day after the White House released a national cybersecurity strategy that calls for software makers to be held liable when their products leave gaping holes for hackers to exploit.

    A wakeup call for cybersecurity in the water sector came mere weeks into the Biden administration, in February 2021, when a hacker infiltrated a Florida water treatment facility and tried to increase the amount of sodium hydroxide to a potentially dangerous level, according to local authorities.

    The facility stopped the attack before harm could be done, but the episode alarmed officials in Washington and led to greater federal scrutiny of the water sector’s security practices.

    The FBI and US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency have warned about multiple ransomware attacks on the computer networks of water and wastewater facilities from California to Maine.

    That greater public attention on the issue has brought improvements; the Water Information Sharing and Analysis Center (WaterISAC), an industry hub for cyber threat data and best practices, says its membership now includes facilities that provide water to most of the US.

    “Multiple water sector associations embrace the need to help water systems bolster cyber resilience,” Jennifer Lyn Walker, the WaterISAC’s director of infrastructure cyber defense, told CNN. “The larger systems have been leading the charge for years, so I think we can adapt that effort toward the medium and smaller systems for the greater good of the sector.”

    But the sprawling US water sector, which includes more than 148,000 public water systems, has sometimes struggled with funding and personnel to protect systems.

    At public water systems, “top-down authorization for major cybersecurity projects, unfortunately, usually only happen after an incident,” Chris Grove, director of cybersecurity strategy at industrial security firm Nozomi Networks, told CNN.

    “Within the municipalities that manage the public water systems, they are choosing between a library expansion, cameras for the police, or cybersecurity for water and wastewater treatment systems,” Grove said.

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  • What you need to know about this earnings season | CNN Business

    What you need to know about this earnings season | CNN Business

    A version of this story first appeared in CNN Business’ Before the Bell newsletter. Not a subscriber? You can sign up right here. You can listen to an audio version of the newsletter by clicking the same link.


    New York
    CNN
     — 

    About 99% of all S&P 500 companies have reported fourth quarter earnings and the results aren’t great.

    Companies listed in the S&P 500 index beat analysts’ earnings estimates by an average of just 1.3% last quarter. For context, that’s way down on the index’s 5-year average of 8.6%, according to FactSet data.

    What’s happening: There have been some steep and disappointing profit misses as corporate America feels the sting of sticky inflation and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes.

    Tech companies fared poorly this season: Apple

    (AAPL)     recorded a rare earnings miss while Intel

    (INTC)     and Google-parent company Alphabet also fell short of expectations.

    But it wasn’t all doom-and-gloom. Energy companies brought in yet another quarter of record profits, with Big Oil companies — such as Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Exxon and Shell — notching their most profitable years in history. Elsewhere, Tesla

    (TSLA)     reported record revenue gains and beat earnings expectations. Big box retailers Target

    (TGT)     and Walmart

    (WMT)     also surpassed estimates as US consumers kept on spending.

    Here’s what else traders need to know about the final few months of last year and beyond.

    Corporate profits could drop for the first time since 2020

    S&P 500 companies are on track to report a 4.6% drop in earnings year-over-year, according to FactSet data. That would mark their first earnings decline since the third quarter of 2020, when Covid shut down large swaths of the economy.

    Gloomy forecasts abound

    About 81 S&P 500 companies have issued negative earnings-per-share guidance for the first quarter of 2023, according to FactSet. That’s a lot higher than the 23 companies reporting positive guidance.

    There was no shortage of foreboding forecasts from top execs on earnings calls this season.

    Walmart beat estimates last quarter, but they also lowered expectations for future earnings.

    Home Depot

    (HD)     CEO Ted Decker said he was concerned that consumers were becoming less resilient to the economy. “We noted some deceleration in certain products and categories, which was more pronounced in the fourth quarter,” he said on an analyst call.

    Lowe’s executives, meanwhile, warned that they were preparing for a “more cautious consumer” this year.

    Investors feel like celebrating

    Wall Street traders appear to be taking this dour earnings season in their stride. The market is “rewarding positive earnings surprises more than average and punishing negative earnings surprises much less than average for the fourth quarter,” reports FactSet.

    Inflation is (still) a big deal

    More than 325 S&P 500 companies have cited the term “inflation” during their earnings calls for the fourth quarter. That’s well above the 10-year average of 157, according to FactSet document searches.

    But the worries over price hikes appear to be waning, at least a little bit. This marks the lowest number of S&P 500 companies using the “I”-word on their calls since the third quarter of 2021. Since last quarter, the number of inflation mentions has fallen by about 20%.

    ▸ ISM Services PMI — a report that measures the strength of the US service sector — is due out at 10 a.m. ET. The data is expected to show a slight slowdown in growth between January and February (54.5 in February vs. 56.5 in January. For context, a reading above 50 means the services economy is expanding).

    That deceleration would be a big deal. It would signal that the economy is beginning to cool and that the Fed’s efforts to fight inflation by raising interest rates are working. If services sector growth accelerates, however, it could signal that more aggressive rate hikes are ahead and send markets lower.

    ▸ Wall Street is anticipating (or dreading, depending on who you ask) next Friday’s unemployment report. The February data is expected to shed some light on a shockingly resilient labor market.

    Another unexpected surge in non-farm payrolls, like the 517,000 new jobs added in January, could indicate more Fed rate hikes are ahead. That could roil markets in this “good news is bad news” environment.

    Analysts expect that the economy added 200,000 new jobs last month, according to Refinitiv data.

    ▸ The Chinese economy surprised investors this week by quickly bouncing back from its zero-Covid shutdowns. China’s first consumer price index, producer price index and trade figures of 2023 are set to be released next week, which will show the full extent of the country’s rebound.

    “These numbers will offer the first official indications of mainland China’s reopening effect following the rebound seen in PMI numbers,” wrote analysts at S&P Global.

    Global manufacturing rose in February for the first time in seven months, according to the latest PMI surveys compiled by S&P Global. That growth was largely spurred on by China’s reopening.

    Shares of Silvergate Capital, a large lender to cryptocurrency firms, plunged nearly 60% — a record drop — on Thursday after the company told the Securities and Exchange Commission that it won’t be able to file its annual report on time and cited concerns about its ability to remain in business.

    The majority of Silvergate’s crypto clients, including Coinbase, Paxos, Galaxy Digital and Crypto.com, quickly cut ties with the bank amid the chaos.

    So what does it all mean?

    My colleague Allison Morrow explains: The California-based lender reported a $1 billion loss for the fourth quarter as investors panicked over the collapse of FTX, the exchange founded by Sam Bankman-Fried that is now at the center of a massive federal fraud investigation.

    FTX’s collapse in November rippled through the digital asset sector, forcing several firms to halt operations and even declare bankruptcy as liquidity dried up and investors fled.

    But unlike FTX, BlockFi, Celsius, Voyager and other crypto companies that folded last year, Silvergate is a traditional, federally insured lender that has positioned itself as a gateway to the crypto sector.

    It’s among the first major instances of crypto’s volatility spilling into the mainstream banking system — a scenario regulators and crypto skeptics have long feared.

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  • Tesla, Musk sued by shareholders over self-driving safety claims | CNN Business

    Tesla, Musk sued by shareholders over self-driving safety claims | CNN Business



    Reuters
     — 

    Tesla

    (TSLA)     and its Chief Executive Elon Musk were sued on Monday by shareholders who accused them of overstating the effectiveness and safety of their electric vehicles’ Autopilot and Full Self-Driving technologies.

    In a proposed class action filed in San Francisco federal court, shareholders said Tesla defrauded them over four years with false and misleading statements that concealed how its technologies, suspected as a possible cause of multiple fatal crashes, “created a serious risk of accident and injury.”

    They said Tesla’s share price fell several times as the truth became known, including after the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration began investigating the technologies, and reports that the Securities and Exchange Commission was investigating Musk’s Autopilot claims.

    The share price also fell 5.7% on Feb. 16 after NHTSA forced a recall of more than 362,000 Tesla vehicles equipped with Full Self-Driving beta software because they could be unsafe around intersections.

    Tesla has said it acquiesced to the recall, though it disagreed with NHTSA’s analysis.

    “As a result of defendants’ wrongful acts and omissions, and the precipitous decline in the market value of the Company’s common stock, plaintiff and other class members have suffered significant losses and damages,” the complaint said.

    Tesla, which does not have a media relations department, did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

    Monday’s lawsuit led by shareholder Thomas Lamontagne seeks unspecified damages for Tesla shareholders from Feb. 19, 2019 to Feb. 17, 2023. Chief Financial Officer Zachary Kirkhorn and his predecessor Deepak Ahuja are also defendants.

    Tesla’s share price closed Monday up $10.75, or 5.5%, at $207.63, but the stock has lost about half its value since peaking in Nov. 2021.

    Musk is expected at Tesla’s March 1 investor day to promote the company’s artificial intelligence capability and plans to expand its vehicle lineup.

    The case is Lamontagne v Tesla Inc et al, U.S. District Court, Northern District of California, No. 23-00869.

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  • The US dollar is at a crossroads | CNN Business

    The US dollar is at a crossroads | CNN Business

    A version of this story first appeared in CNN Business’ Before the Bell newsletter. Not a subscriber? You can sign up right here. You can listen to an audio version of the newsletter by clicking the same link.


    New York
    CNN
     — 

    Wall Street investors are reaching for their neck braces in preparation for yet another volatile swing in stock markets: A surging US dollar.

    The greenback — which is not just the dominant global currency but also “the key variable affecting global economic conditions,” according to the New York Federal Reserve — reached a 20-year high last year after the Fed turned hawkish with its aggressive rate hikes.

    Since then, inflation seemed to have softened, pushing the dollar down. But in recent weeks, as a slew of economic data has shown the Fed’s inflation battle is far from over, the currency soared by about 4% from its recent lows, and now sits near a seven-week high.

    Investors are stressing about this sudden rebound, since a stronger dollar means American-made products become more expensive for foreign buyers, overseas revenue decreases in value and global trade weakens.

    Multinational companies, naturally, aren’t thrilled about any of this. And around 30% of all S&P 500 companies’ revenue is earned in markets outside the US, said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial.

    What’s happening: The US dollar “finds itself at a significant crossroads yet again,” said Krosby. “While the Fed remains steadfastly data dependent, the dollar’s course as well remains focused on inflation and the Fed’s monetary response.”

    “The strong US dollar has been a headwind for international earnings and stock performance (for US investors),” wrote Wells Fargo analysts in a recent note.

    February was a rough month for markets: The Dow ended February down 4.19%, the S&P 500 fell 2.6% and the Nasdaq lost just over 1%.

    What’s next: Investors are clearly focused on the next Fed policy meeting, which is still three weeks away, for signals about the direction of rates. But until then, investors may gain some insight Tuesday when Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speaks before the Senate Banking Committee.

    They’ll also be watching next Friday’s jobs report for any softening in the labor market that could temper the Fed’s hawkish mood.

    Don’t forget the debt ceiling: Another significant threat to the dollar is looming in Congress — the ongoing debt ceiling fight. The United States could start to default on its financial obligations over the summer or in the early fall if lawmakers don’t agree to raise the debt limit — its self-imposed borrowing limit — before then, according to a new analysis by the Bipartisan Policy Center.

    That could potentially lead to a disastrous downgrade to America’s credit rating and could send the dollar spiraling as investors start to sell off their US assets and move their money to safer currencies.

    “It would certainly undermine the role of the dollar as a reserve currency that is used in transactions all over the world. And Americans — many people — would lose their jobs and certainly their borrowing costs would rise,” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told CNN in January.

    ▸ A lot has changed in the last twenty years. The gender pay gap hasn’t.

    In 2022, US women on average earned about 82 cents for every dollar a man earned, according to a new Pew Research Center analysis of median hourly earnings of both full- and part-time workers.

    That’s a big leap from the 65 cents that women were earning in 1982. But it has barely moved from the 80 cents they were earning in 2002.

    “Higher education, a shift to higher-paying occupations and more labor market experience have helped women narrow the gender pay gap since 1982,” the Pew analysis noted. “But even as women have continued to outpace men in educational attainment, the pay gap has been stuck in a holding pattern since 2002, ranging from 80 to 85 cents to the dollar.”

    ▸ Initial jobless claims, which measures the number of people who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time last week, are due out at 8:30 a.m. ET on Thursday.

    This will be the last official jobs data investors see before February’s heavily anticipated unemployment report next Friday.

    Economists are expecting 195,000 Americans to have filed for unemployment, which is higher than the seasonally adjusted 192,000 who applied two weeks ago.

    Initial claims have come in lower than expected in recent weeks and remain well below their pre-pandemic levels.

    The white-hot labor market in the US added more than 500,000 jobs in January, blowing analysts’ expectations out of the water and bringing the unemployment rate to its lowest level since May of 1969.

    That’s bad news for the Federal Reserve where policymakers have been attempting to tame inflation by cooling the economy through painful interest rate hikes.

    ▸ It’s a big day for groceries. Kroger (KR), Costco (COST) and Anheuser-Busch (BUD) all report earnings on Thursday.

    Investors will be watching closely for clues about consumer sentiment during an uncertain retail earnings season. On Tuesday, Kohl’s reported that it had a rough holiday season and executives at the company put the blame on inflation. The company said higher prices squeezed sales and forced it to mark down some products to entice shoppers — which hurt its profit margin.

    Those comments echoed those of other big box retailers like Walmart (WMT) and Target (TGT), who have said consumers are feeling the pinch of inflation.

    Still, Target and Walmart’s bottom lines were bolstered by food sales even as consumers pulled back on discretionary purchases.

    The US Senate voted on Wednesday to overturn a Biden administration retirement investment rule that allows managers of retirement funds to consider the impact of climate change and other ESG factors when picking investments.

    As my CNN colleagues Ali Zaslav, Clare Foran and Ted Barrett write: The rule is not mandated – it allows, but does not require, the consideration of environmental, social and governance factors in investment selection.

    Republicans complained that the rule is a “woke” policy that pushes a liberal agenda on Americans and will hurt retirees’ bottom lines.

    “This rule isn’t about saying the left or the right take on a given environmental, social, or governance issue is ‘correct,’” countered Senator Patty Murray (D-WA) on the Senate floor Wednesday. “It’s about acknowledging these factors are reasonable for asset managers to consider.”

    The measure will next go to President Joe Biden’s desk as it was passed by the House on Tuesday. The administration, however, has issued a veto threat. As a result, passage of the resolution could pave the way for Biden to issue the first veto of his presidency.

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  • Senate votes to overturn Biden administration retirement investment rule Republicans decry as ‘woke’ | CNN Politics

    Senate votes to overturn Biden administration retirement investment rule Republicans decry as ‘woke’ | CNN Politics



    CNN
     — 

    The Senate passed a politically charged resolution on Wednesday to overturn a Biden administration retirement investment rule that allows managers of retirement funds to consider the impact of climate change and other environmental, social and governance factors when picking investments.

    Republicans complain the rule is “woke” policy that pushes a liberal agenda on Americans and will hurt retirees’ bottom lines, while Democrats say it’s not about ideology and will help investors.

    The measure, which would rescind a Department of Labor rule, will next go to President Joe Biden’s desk as it was passed by the House on Tuesday. The administration, however, has issued a veto threat. As a result, passage of the resolution could pave the way for Biden to issue the first veto of his presidency.

    Opponents of the rule could try to override a veto, but at this point it appears unlikely they could get the two-thirds majority needed in each chamber to do so.

    The resolution, authored by GOP Sen. Mike Braun of Indiana, only needed a simple majority to pass. It passed on a vote of 50 to 46 with Democratic Sens. Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Jon Tester of Montana voting with Republicans.

    Republican lawmakers advanced it under the Congressional Review Act, which allows Congress to roll back regulations from the executive branch without needing to clear the 60-vote threshold in the Senate that is necessary for most legislation.

    Opponents of the rule have argued that it politicizes retirement investments and that the Biden administration is using it as a way to push a liberal agenda on Americans.

    “The Biden Administration wants to let Wall Street use workers’ hard-earned savings to pursue left-wing political initiatives,” Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell said in remarks on the Senate floor on Tuesday morning.

    Republican Sen. John Barrasso of Wyoming said at a news conference on Tuesday, “What’s happened here is the woke and weaponized bureaucracy at the Department of Labor has come out with new regulations on retirement funds, and they want retirement funds to be invested in things that are consistent with their very liberal, left-wing agenda.”

    Supporters of the rule argue that it is not a mandate – it allows, but does not require, the consideration of environmental, social and governance factors in investment selection.

    Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said on Wednesday that Republicans are “using the same tired attacks we’ve heard for a while now that this is more wokeness. … But Republicans are missing or ignoring an important point: Nothing in the (Labor Department) rule imposes a mandate.”

    “This isn’t about ideological preference, it’s about looking at the biggest picture possible for investments to minimize risk and maximize returns,” he said, noting it’s a narrow rule that is “literally allowing the free market to do its work.”

    The statement of administration policy saying that Biden would veto the measure similarly states, “the 2022 rule is not a mandate – it does not require any fiduciary to make investment decisions based solely on ESG factors. The rule simply makes sure that retirement plan fiduciaries must engage in a risk and return analysis of their investment decisions and recognizes that these factors can be relevant to that analysis.”

    Republicans are also working to advance a measure to rescind a controversial Washington, DC, crime law – which critics argue is soft on violent criminals – with a simple majority vote in the Senate.

    Many Democrats oppose overriding the DC law. They argue local officials should make their own laws free of congressional interference and decry Republicans as hypocrites since they typically promote state and local rights.

    A Senate vote on the DC measure is expected next week.

    This story and headline have been updated with additional developments.

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  • UK house prices post sharpest fall since 2012 as high mortgage rates hurt | CNN Business

    UK house prices post sharpest fall since 2012 as high mortgage rates hurt | CNN Business


    London
    CNN
     — 

    UK house prices last month saw their biggest annual decline since November 2012, in the latest indication of the lasting pain that former Prime Minister Liz Truss’s ill-fated “mini” budget inflicted on Britain’s property market.

    The average price of a house fell 1.1% to £257,406 ($310,000) in February compared with a year earlier, taking UK house price growth into negative territory for the first time since June 2020, lender Nationwide said Wednesday.

    House prices have now declined for six months in a row and are 3.7% below their August 2022 peak, according to Nationwide’s index based on purchases involving a mortgage.

    “The recent run of weak house price data began with the financial market turbulence in response to the mini budget at the end of September last year,” Nationwide’s chief economist Robert Gardner said in a statement.

    “While financial market conditions normalized some time ago, housing market activity has remained subdued,” reflecting “the lingering impact on confidence, as well as the cumulative impact of the financial pressures that have been weighing on households for some time,” he added.

    The “mini” budget unveiled in September by Truss and then-finance minister Kwasi Kwarteng collapsed UK bond prices, sent borrowing costs soaring and sparked chaos in the mortgage market, as lenders withdrew hundreds of products, and deals fell through.

    “The economy has largely moved on from the mini budget, but the hangover for the UK housing market is more prolonged. We’re still seeing the effects of higher mortgage rates in the last three months of last year,” said Tom Bill, head of UK residential research at broker Knight Frank.

    Surging food and energy costs alongside feeble pay growth have also taken a bite out of household budgets, weighing on consumer confidence and housing market activity.

    “Inflation has continued to outpace wage growth, and mortgage rates remain significantly higher than the lows recorded in 2021,” said Gardner at Nationwide. “Even though consumer sentiment has improved in recent months, it is still languishing at levels prevailing during the depths of the financial crisis.”

    According to Bill, activity since Christmas has been “solid” but prices still have further to fall. He expects a decline of 5% this year.

    “House prices are 20% higher than they were before the pandemic and we expect around half of this to unwind over the next two years as buyers revise down their budgets,” Bill said.

    Mortgage rates have started to fall but recent stronger-than-expected UK economic data could lead the Bank of England to keep interest rates higher for longer, causing the downward drift in mortgage rates to “stall,” he told CNN. “That’s something we’re keeping an eye on.”

    — This is a developing story and will be updated.

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  • Biden administration tells student loan forgiveness applicants it is ‘confident’ in face of Supreme Court skepticism | CNN Politics

    Biden administration tells student loan forgiveness applicants it is ‘confident’ in face of Supreme Court skepticism | CNN Politics



    CNN
     — 

    The Biden administration is projecting confidence about the fate of President Joe Biden’s student loan cancellation program in a message to applicants, even in the face of skepticism from conservative Supreme Court justices in Tuesday’s high-stakes oral arguments.

    Education Secretary Miguel Cardona said in an email sent to millions of borrowers who applied for debt cancellation that the administration “mounted a powerful case” in support of Biden’s executive action.

    “Our Administration is confident in our legal authority to adopt this plan, and today made clear that opponents of the program lack standing to even bring their case to court,” Cardona wrote in the email update obtained by CNN.

    The email update to applicants reflects a position administration officials have maintained in the wake of the oral arguments. But it also implicitly lays out the administration’s view of the political dynamics of a move that has became an immediate partisan flashpoint. As applicants and administration officials alike settle in for what will likely be months of waiting for a final decision, the update sent to roughly 7 million people also provides a window into the reach the administration would have to frame the debate – and consequences – should the program be struck down.

    Cardona’s message comes as millions of borrowers remain in limbo as they await a Supreme Court decision on whether Biden’s action to cancel up to $20,000 in student loan debt will stand.

    White House officials, who closely monitored the oral arguments in two challenges, have maintained the position that they will ultimately prevail in the cases that challenge Biden’s authority to discharge millions of dollars in federally held loans. While they remain confident on the merits, sources continue to highlight the view inside the administration that the plaintiffs lack standing to bring the challenges – which would render the arguments over the authority itself moot.

    One source familiar told CNN that the White House remains confident that things will go their way, simply saying: “We’ll win.”

    A particular flashpoint in the hearing was the states’ arguments that the loan forgiveness program’s potential harms to MOHELA – the Missouri-created entity that services loans in the state – gives Missouri standing.

    Justice Amy Coney Barrett stood out among the conservatives for asking particularly pointed questions of the GOP states about their standing arguments, setting her apart as a potential pickup vote for the court’s three liberal members.

    “If MOHELA is an arm of the state, why didn’t you just strong-arm MOHELA and say you’ve got to pursue this suit,” Barrett asked Nebraska Solicitor General James Campbell.

    The question was one of several directed at Campbell, who represented the group of Republican-led states that argue the administration exceeded its authority, about the states’ standing claims.

    Another source familiar said that Barrett’s comments only raised optimism within the administration.

    But as several conservative justices leveled sharp questions related the government’s authority on the matter, Cardona’s update appeared intended to assuage overarching concerns.

    It also previewed a political contrast officials will likely elevate should Supreme Court strike down Biden’s actions – one White House officials have repeatedly pressed as the challenges have made their way through the courts.

    “While opponents of this program would deny relief to tens of millions of working- and middle-class Americans, we are fighting to deliver relief to borrowers who need support as they get back on their feet after the economic crisis caused by the pandemic,” Cardona wrote.

    Biden’s plan would cancel as much as $10,000 in federal student loan debt for people earning less than $125,000 a year, or less than $250,000 for married couples. Individuals on Pell Grants could see up to $20,000 forgiven. In all, more than 40 million federal borrowers would qualify for some level of debt cancelation, with roughly 20 million who would have their balance forgiven entirely.

    The Biden administration received 26 million applications for the program, which has been frozen as the court battles have played out, and more than 16 million applications had already been approved.

    Cardona reiterated that a pause on federal loan payments, which was implemented during the Trump administration in response to the pandemic and was set to restart at the same time cancellation was implemented, remain on hold as the Supreme Court deliberations play out.

    “While we await the Supreme Court’s decision, the pause on student loan payments remains in effect,” Cardona wrote. “Payments will resume 60 days after the Supreme Court announces its decision.”

    If the litigation is not resolved by June 30, payments are scheduled to resume 60 days after that date. If it has not made a decision or resolved the litigation by June 30, payments will resume 60 days after that.

    The Supreme Court’s decision is expected to come this summer.

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  • Pending home sales blew past expectations last month as buyers pounced on lower rates | CNN Business

    Pending home sales blew past expectations last month as buyers pounced on lower rates | CNN Business


    Washington, DC
    CNN
     — 

    Pending home sales crushed expectations in January, when mortgage rates dropped from recent highs of more than 7% and home buyers jumped at the opportunity.

    According to data released Monday from the National Association of Realtors, it was the largest monthly sales increase since June 2020.

    The pending sales index, based on signed contracts to buy a home rather than the final sales that are accounted for in existing home sales, rose by 8.1% from December to January, beating economists’ predictions for a rise of 1%. January’s jump followed a downwardly revised 1.1% rise in December.

    “Buyers responded to better affordability from falling mortgage rates in December and January,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at NAR.

    But since then, mortgage rates have risen again, climbing almost half a percentage point since the beginning of February, according to Freddie Mac.

    “Mortgage rates took a breath in December and January before resuming their climb in February, reaching 6.5%, the highest level of the new year,” said Hannah Jones, an economic data analyst at Realtor.com.

    At the current mortgage rate, the monthly payment on a median-priced home is about 45% higher — or $630 more — than it was at the same time last year, she said. “Many buyers are still holding off, waiting to see if prices or rates give a bit before getting into the market.”

    Last year’s persistent increase in both mortgage rates and home prices pushed many would-be home purchasers out of the market, said Jones. This resulted in a slowing of new homes in the building pipeline and fewer sellers listing their homes, which limited options for buyers still in the market.

    “New listings were at the lowest level in the last six years in January as sellers stayed on the sidelines, waiting to see buyers return, before placing their homes for sale,” said Jones. “However, the first month of the year brought glimmers of hope as year-over-year declines in both existing and new home sales slowed, and buyer sentiment improved slightly.”

    While home sales were down by 24.1% from the still-hot market of a year ago, activity appears to be bottoming out in the first quarter of this year, before incremental improvements will occur, Yun said.

    “An annual gain in home sales will not occur until 2024,” said Yun. “Meanwhile, home prices will be steady in most parts of the country with a minor change in the national median home price.”

    All regions saw a month-to-month increase in pending home sales, with the Northeast up 6%, the Midwest up 7.9%, the South up 8.3% and the West up 10.1%.

    “An extra bump occurred in the West region because of lower home prices, while gains in the South were due to stronger job growth in that region,” Yun said.

    Home prices are dropping fastest in areas where prices ran up the most in the frenzied market of the past few years.

    But overall, the number of home sales are expected to drop this year, according to NAR’s forecast.

    NAR anticipates the economy will continue to add jobs throughout this year and next, with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate steadily dropping to an average of 6.1% in 2023 and 5.4% in 2024.

    Even with an improving interest rate environment and job gains, Yun still expects annual existing-home sales to drop about 11% this year from last year, before jumping up about 18% in 2024. NAR projects new-home sales will fall about 4% this year compared with last year before surging nearly 20% in 2024.

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  • Union Pacific CEO to leave after push from activist shareholder | CNN Business

    Union Pacific CEO to leave after push from activist shareholder | CNN Business


    New York
    CNN
     — 

    Union Pacific shares jumped 10% in premarket trading Monday after the railroad company announced CEO Lance Fritz will leave the company by year-end, following a call by an activist hedge fund for his ouster.

    Union Pacific just reported a record profit for the second straight year. But the hedge fund, Soroban Capital Partners, put out a statement saying that Fritz had lost the confidence of “shareholders, employees, customers, and regulators.”

    “UNP’s total shareholder return has been the worst in the industry,” said Soroban’s letter to the board. “Among all S&P 500 companies, UNP is rated by employees as the worst place to work and has the lowest employee CEO approval rating (ranked 500th out of 500 in both),” said the letter. And it said that the Surface Transportation Board, one of the regulators of freight railroads, ranked Union Pacific as providing the worst service among the major railroads.

    Soroban only owns about 1% of Union Pacific’s shares.

    “It is my honor and privilege to serve this great company. I am proud of our team and all we have built together,” said Fritz in a statement. “Union Pacific has been my home for 22 years and I am confident that now is the right time for Union Pacific’s next leader to take the helm.”

    Union Pacific said its process of looking for a new CEO had been ongoing for a year and that it decided to make a public statement in light of Soroban’s public call for a change.

    “The Board is grateful to Lance for his unwavering leadership, dedication and oversight in driving our company forward over the last eight years as CEO. Lance created an environment that has allowed Union Pacific to make a measurable impact with our customers, communities and employees alike,” said Michael McCarthy, lead independent director of the Board. “He has capably led our company during a time of significant challenge and change.”

    But, overall, the level of service and on-time performance in the freight railroad industry has been declining for years, as the railroads attempted to trim costs and staffing.

    Despite the industry’s record profits, stocks in major freight railroads have lagged other sectors. Shares of Union Pacific

    (UNP)     are down about 20% over the last 12 month through Friday’s close, even with a rebound in share price so far in 2023. That’s worse than the drop in share price at other major railroads like Norfolk Southern

    (NSC)     and CSX

    (CSX)    .

    As far as employee relations, Union Pacific was seen as a leader among freight railroads in contentious labor negotiations last year that would have resulted in an economy-crippling strike had Congress not stepped in and imposed an unpopular contract. The contract granted employees an immediate 14% raise, including back pay, but denied them the paid sick days they had sought.

    Union Pacific and other railroads argued during the negotiations that it couldn’t afford to meet union demands for paid sick days, even though the unions estimated it would cost the entire industry $321 million a year at a time when the railroads are each making billions of dollars in profits.

    Union Pacific last year earned a net income of $7 billion, up about $500 million, or 7%, from the previous record profit it posted for 2021. Total employee compensation for the year came to $4.6 billion, far less than the $6.3 billion that Union Pacific spent repurchasing shares of stock in the period.

    Last week, Union Pacific reached an agreement with two of its smaller unions granting their members up to four sick days a year, as well as greater flexibility to use three personal days as sick days without prior notice and approval.

    “We will continue to work with other unions to address paid sick time solutions,” according to the company’s statement on sick pay last week. The move came after another major railroad, CSX, reached deals granting sick days with six of its unions. UP did act before a third railroad, Norfolk Southern, reached a deal with one of its unions on sick days in the wake of a major train derailment in East Palestine, Ohio, which released toxic materials into the area.

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  • Inflation is doing a crab walk and Fed officials fear its pinch | CNN Business

    Inflation is doing a crab walk and Fed officials fear its pinch | CNN Business

    A version of this story first appeared in CNN Business’ Before the Bell newsletter. Not a subscriber? You can sign up right here. You can listen to an audio version of the newsletter by clicking the same link.


    New York
    CNN
     — 

    The possibility of a 2023 market rally ground to a halt last week amid an onslaught of unfortunate inflation and economic data that spooked investors and increased the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will continue its economically painful rate hikes campaign for longer than Wall Street hoped.

    All major indexes notched their largest weekly losses of 2023 on Friday. The S&P 500 fell by 2.7%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank 3%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 3.3%.

    What’s happening: It appears that after months of steady decline, the pace of inflation is going sideways. January’s Personal Consumption Expenditures price index – the Fed’s favored inflation gauge – came in hotter than expected on Friday.

    Prices rose a whopping 5.4% in January from a year earlier, the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis reported. In December, prices rose 5.3% annually.

    In January alone, prices were up 0.6% from the prior month, a higher monthly gain from December’s increase of 0.2%.

    This inflationary crab walk is almost certainly causing Fed officials to rethink their policy.

    A paper presented Friday at the Booth School of Business Monetary Policy Forum in New York argued that disinflation will likely be slower and more painful than markets anticipate.

    “Significant disinflations induced by monetary policy tightening are associated with recessions,” said the paper. “An ‘immaculate disinflation’ would be unprecedented.” (Immaculate, in this instance, refers to the possibility of inflation falling quickly to the Fed’s 2% goal without any serious economic damage).

    Several Fed presidents, governors and top economists were on hand at the Booth School forum to discuss the paper and monetary policy on Friday. The majority of those speaking expressed deep concern about the stubbornness of inflation and general market reaction.

    Inflation won’t quit: Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said that while price growth has moderated from its recent high, the overall pace of inflation remains too high and could be more persistent than her colleagues currently anticipate.

    “I anticipate further rate increases to reach a sufficiently restrictive level, then holding there for some, perhaps extended, time,” echoed Boston Fed President Susan Collins at the conference.

    Collins referred to inflation as “recalcitrant,” a loaded million-dollar word that means uncooperative, or defiant to authority.

    Fed Governor Philip Jefferson struck a more befuddled stance on Friday, observing that inflation continues to baffle economists. “The inflationary forces impinging on the US economy at present represent a complex mixture of temporary and more long-lasting elements that defy simple, parsimonious explanation,” he said. Parsimonious being another million-dollar word for frugal.

    Economists stressed that more pain lies ahead. “It’s important that markets understand that ‘no landing’ is not an option,” said Peter Hooper, vice chair of research at Deutsche Bank, an author of the report.

    While recent data has signaled that the US economy remains strong, “by the time we get to the middle of this year we expect to see some bad news coming and the sooner the markets get that message the more helpful it will be to the Fed,” he said.

    The final word: Former Bank of England Governor Lord Mervyn King summed up what many were thinking on Friday: Given the complexity of the current monetary situation, he said, “I wouldn’t want to give advice to any central banks about what we should do.”

    Researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York have issued a dire warning: If President Joe Biden’s student loan forgiveness plan doesn’t come to fruition, the US could face another credit crisis.

    Some background: The Covid-19 crisis triggered a sudden shift in student loan policy and a new openness to forgiveness. In March 2020, Congress passed the CARES Act, which automatically paused required payments on all federally held student loans.

    That forbearance has since been extended eight times and is set to end as late as August, 40 months after it began.

    The Biden Administration had announced an unprecedented debt cancellation proposal which would provide relief to more than 40 million borrowers. An analysis by the New York Fed found that roughly $441 billion of federal student loans are eligible for forgiveness under the proposal, canceling about 30% of all outstanding federal student loan debt.

    That forgiveness proposal is now on hold after an injunction by the 8th US Circuit Court of Appeals. On Tuesday, The Supreme Court of the United States will hear the case with its decision expected by June 2023.

    What’s on the line: If the Biden Administration’s forgiveness plan survives the court challenge, it will mark the largest mass discharge of consumer debt in modern history, according to the New York Fed. About 40% of those with federal student loan debt would have a zero balance; even more would have a much smaller monthly payment.

    But, “if payments resume without debt relief, we expect both student loan default and delinquencies to rise and potentially surpass pre-pandemic levels,” warned Fed researchers.

    “We note a stark increase in new credit card and auto loan delinquency for borrowers with eligible student loans over the past few quarters, growing at a faster pace than those without student loans and those with ineligible loans,” they wrote.

    Those missed payments suggest that some federal student loan borrowers are having trouble meeting their monthly debt obligations. “We expect these delinquency patterns to worsen if federal student loan payments resume without relief,” said the report.

    The data “may be suggestive of problems to come, a sign of economic distress that may appear particularly concerning when the burden of student loan payments resumes.”

    Future concerns: If student loan borrowers expect future debt cancellation, they may borrow even more, said researchers, which would increase debt balances even more sharply. “Absent direct policies to address this growing burden, taxpayers may be again called to for relief in the future,” they concluded.

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  • 401(k) balances rise, despite economic and market challenges | CNN Business

    401(k) balances rise, despite economic and market challenges | CNN Business


    New York
    CNN
     — 

    Despite higher prices, endless talk of a possible recession and falling markets, 401(k) participants managed to keep their savings rates relatively steady in the fourth quarter of last year, helping to stabilize their nest eggs and increase their overall average balances.

    That’s according to new data from Fidelity Investments, one of the largest providers of workplace retirement plans, which combined represent $2.8 trillion in assets on its platform.

    “Fortunately, the data show that retirement savers understand the importance of saving for the long-term, despite market shift. We are encouraged to see people look past the current volatility and continue to make smart choices for their future,” said Kevin Barry, president of Workplace Investing at Fidelity.

    By that Barry means the average 401(k) savings rate (including both employee contributions and employer matches) held roughly steady at 13.7%, down from the 13.8% in the third quarter and 13.9% in the second quarter.

    Among generations in the workforce, Baby Boomers had the highest savings rate as a percent of their income (16.5%). The youngest cohort – Gen Z workers – saved 10.2%.

    A third of participants actually increased their contribution rate over the last year, according to Fidelity. But the average rate among this group is still very low – at just 2.6%.

    The average 401(k) balance in Fidelity-administered plans, meanwhile, rose 7% from the third quarter, to $103,900. That said, thanks to poor performances in both stocks and bonds last year, the average is still 23% below the $135,600 recorded at the end of 2021.

    In terms of 401(k) loans, the percent of active plan participants with outstanding ones remained at 16.7%. That’s down from 17% a year earlier and 21% from five years ago, Fidelity said.

    The average outstanding loan amount was $10,200. Among different age groups, Gen Xers had the highest average, followed by Baby Boomers. And even though they are just getting started in their careers and haven’t had a lot of time to amass savings, 3.2% of Gen Z workers also had outstanding 401(k) loans, but their average amount ($3,000) was the lowest among all age groups.

    Hardship withdrawals from 401(k)s – money taken when a participant is under financial stress of some kind (e.g., to prevent eviction, pay for funeral expenses or to cover a near-term tuition bill) – stood at 2.4% for the year, up from 1.9% in 2021. The average amount taken out was $2,200. Unlike a 401(k) loan, a hardship withdrawal does not need to be paid back, and will be taxed. Plus, in some instances it may be subject to a 10% penalty if you’re under 59-1/2.

    The new retirement law, Secure 2.0, includes a provision that will make it easier and less costly for 401(k) participants to take money out of their account for emergency needs up to $1,000 in a year.

    Apart from its workplace retirement plans, Fidelity reported a 10.2% annual increase in the number of IRAs on its platform, noting that 61% of the IRA contributions made in the fourth quarter of last year went into Roth IRAs.

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  • Norfolk Southern is paying $6.5 million to derailment victims. Meanwhile, it’s shelling out $7.5 billion for shareholders | CNN Business

    Norfolk Southern is paying $6.5 million to derailment victims. Meanwhile, it’s shelling out $7.5 billion for shareholders | CNN Business


    New York
    CNN
     — 

    Norfolk Southern CEO Alan Shaw pledged Tuesday the freight railroad will spend $6.5 million to help those affected by the release of toxic chemicals from its derailment nearly three weeks ago in East Palestine, Ohio. But in a plan released earlier this year, the company said it’s planning to spend more than a thousand times that amount — $7.5 billion — to repurchase its own shares in order to benefit its shareholders.

    The company spent $3.4 billion on share repurchases last year, and $3.1 billion in 2021, bringing its recent share repurchases to $6.5 billion. That towers over what it said is its financial commitment to East Palestine, which it said exceeds $6.4 million in direct aid to families and government agencies, in addition to what will be required in cleanup costs.

    There is no estimate as to the total cost to Norfolk Southern from the derailment, including the cost of cleanup that the Environmental Protection Agency says will be the railroad’s responsibility.

    It’s not clear how much of the accident’s cost will fall on Norfolk Southern. The company revealed Wednesday during a conference call with investors that it has as much as $1.1 billion worth of liability insurance coverage that it can draw upon to compensate third parties for losses caused by the accident. It also has about $200 million worth of insurance coverage to cover damage to its own property, such as tracks or equipment.

    In March 2022, Norfolk Southern

    (NSC)     announced a new $10 billion share repurchase plan. Its latest annual financial report, filed just hours before the derailment this month, shows that it still had $7.5 billion available to buy additional shares under that repurchase plan as of December 31.

    Norfolk Southern did not respond to questions Wednesday on whether it expects to change its share repurchase plans in the wake of the derailment.

    The company also returned an additional $1.2 billion to shareholders in the form of dividend payments in 2022, and $1 billion in 2021, bringing total payments to shareholders to $4.6 billion last year and $4.1 billion in 2021.

    The shareholders did much better than the company’s 19,000 employees. Total employee compensation in 2022 came to $2.6 billion, up from $2.4 billion in 2021.

    The amount that Norfolk Southern and other major freight railroads are spending on shareholders got a lot of attention in December, when they successfully fought a move in Congress to require them to give hourly workers at least seven sick days a year as part of a labor contract imposed on the industry by Congress in order to avoid an economically crippling rail strike. And it’s getting new attention in the wake of the derailment, along with questions about whether the environmental disaster could have been avoided if the railroad had spent more on staffing and safety.

    “Corporations do stock buybacks, they do big dividend checks, they lay off workers,” said Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio, on CNN’s State of the Union on Sunday. “They don’t invest in safety rules and safety regulations, and this kind of thing happens.”

    The accident is under investigation by the National Transportation Safety Board. While the cause has yet to be determined, it is known that freight railroads have fought tougher safety rules in the past.

    One rule the industry successfully fought would have required a more modern braking system on trains carrying significant amounts of hazardous materials. The Federal Railroad Administration, which proposed the rule under the Obama administration, estimated a more modern braking system would reduce by nearly 20% the number of rail cars in a derailment that puncture and release their contents.

    The FRA estimated those better brakes would cost the entire industry $493 million, spread over a period of 20 years. The Association of American Railroads, the trade industry group that represents most US freight railroads, estimated a much greater cost — about $3 billion, but again, spread over 20 years. That would mean around $150 million a year for an entire industry that is earning billions of dollars of annual profits.

    Still, it was able to block the rule from ever taking effect, based partly on the argument it was too costly for the potential benefit.

    “The railroads are quick to point out their lack of funds to provide adequate staffing, paid sick leave and improved safety, yet they have billions of dollars to spend on stock repurchases,” said Eddie Hall, national president of the Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers, the industry’s second-largest union behind the one that represents conductors.

    Share repurchases are designed to help increase the value of the stock by reducing the number of shares outstanding.

    In theory, each remaining share becomes more valuable since it represents a greater percentage of the company’s overall ownership. The earnings per share, a key measure used by investors to judge a company’s profitability, can rise even if the total dollars earned by the company goes down, as the pool of shares available to the public shrinks further.

    But Norfolk Southern’s profits aren’t going down. They’re going up — by quite a bit. It posted record profits from railway operations of $4.45 billion in 2021, and broke that record in 2022 when it earned $4.8 billion on that basis.

    Other freight railroads are also reporting improving profits, and have joined Norfolk Southern in massive share repurchases.

    Union Pacific

    (UNP)     purchased $6.3 billion worth of shares in 2022, and has plans to purchase an additional 84 million shares, worth more than $16 billion at its current value. CSX repurchased $4.7 billion worth of shares last year and has plans to buy an additional $3.3 billion going forward. Like Norfolk Southern, both UP and CSX spent more on share repurchases than they did on total employee compensation.

    Share repurchases are not limited to the rail industry. Chevron

    (CVX)     recently announced plans to repurchase $75 billion worth of its stock with windfall record profits that came from high oil prices. Across corporate America, share repurchases reached almost $1 trillion for the first time last year, coming in at $936 billion according to S&P Dow Jones Indices, up from $882 billion in 2021.

    Share repurchases are forecast to top $1 trillion this year.

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  • How an old debate previews Biden’s new strategy for winning senior voters | CNN Politics

    How an old debate previews Biden’s new strategy for winning senior voters | CNN Politics



    CNN
     — 

    In pressing Republicans on Social Security and Medicare, President Joe Biden is reprising one of the most dramatic moments of his long career.

    During the 2012 vice-presidential debate, Biden engaged in a nearly 11-minute exchange with GOP nominee Paul Ryan over Republican plans to reconfigure the two massive programs for the elderly, several of which Ryan had authored himself.

    Biden and many Democrats felt he had won the argument on stage. Yet on Election Day, Ryan and GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney routed Biden and President Barack Obama among White seniors, and beat them soundly among seniors overall, exit polls found.

    That outcome underscores the obstacles facing Biden now as he tries to recapture older voters by portraying Republicans as threats to the two towers of America’s safety net for the elderly. While polls consistently show that voters trust Democrats more than Republicans to safeguard the programs, GOP presidential nominees have carried all seniors in every presidential election back to 2004 and have reached at least 58% support among White seniors in each of the past four contests, exit polls have found. Democrats have likewise consistently struggled among those nearing retirement, older working adults aged 45-64.

    Those results suggest that for most older voters, affinity for the GOP messages on other issues – particularly its resistance, in the Donald Trump era, to cultural and racial change – has outweighed their views about Social Security and Medicare. Those grooves are now cut so deeply, over so many elections, that Biden may struggle to change them much no matter how hard he rails against a range of GOP proposals that could retrench or restructure the programs.

    Biden’s charge that Republicans are threatening the two giant entitlement programs for the elderly – which triggered his striking back and forth exchanges with GOP legislators during the State of the Union – fits squarely in his broader political positioning as he turns toward his expected reelection campaign.

    As I’ve written, the 80-year-old Biden, at his core, “remains something like a pre-1970s Democrat, who is most comfortable with a party focused less on cultural crusades than on delivering kitchen-table benefits to people who work with their hands.” As president he’s expressed that inclination primarily through what he calls his “blue-collar blueprint to rebuild America” – the planks in his economic plans, such as generous incentives to revive domestic manufacturing, aimed at creating more opportunity for workers without a college degree. Politically, Biden’s staunch defense of Social Security and Medicare, programs critical to the economic security of financially vulnerable retirees, represents a logical bookend to that emphasis.

    “We all know that whose side you are on is a critical debate point for every election and this debate over Social Security and Medicare really helps crystallize whose side Biden is on versus whose side Republicans are on in a very effective way for him,” said Democratic pollster Matt Hogan, who helped conduct an extensive series of bipartisan polls during the 2022 campaign measuring attitudes among seniors for the AARP, the giant lobby for the elderly.

    From Franklin Roosevelt through Hubert Humphrey and Tip O’Neill, generations of Democrats have framed themselves as the defenders of the social safety net for seniors against Republicans who they say would unravel it. Biden showed how comfortable he was stepping into those shoes during his 2012 vice-presidential debate with Ryan, then a young representative from Wisconsin who Romney had selected as his running mate.

    Nearly 30 years Biden’s junior, Ryan was an unflinching advocate of restructuring Social Security and Medicare to reduce costs over time. In particular, Ryan was the principal supporter of a conservative plan to convert Medicare, the giant federal health insurance program for the elderly, into a system called “premium support.” Under that proposal, Medicare would be transformed from its current structure, in which the government directly pays doctors and hospitals who provide care for beneficiaries, into a voucher (or “premium support”) system, in which the government would provide recipients a fixed sum to purchase private insurance. Ryan had also drafted proposals to partially privatize Social Security by allowing workers to divert part of their payroll taxes into private investment accounts, a change that would have reduced the tax dollars flowing into the system and eventually required substantial cuts in guaranteed benefits.

    For nearly 11 minutes during the debate in October 2012, moderator Martha Raddatz of ABC skillfully guided Biden and Ryan through a heated, but civil and substantive, discussion of Social Security and Medicare’s future. Ryan insisted that changes were needed to preserve the programs’ long-term viability and that current seniors and those near retirement would not see their benefits reduced.

    Biden appealed openly to the Democrats’ historic image as the programs’ protectors and condemned Ryan and the GOP for wanting to partially privatize them. At one point in the debate, Biden declared: “we will be no part of a [Medicare] voucher program or the privatization of Social Security.” A few moments later, he insisted: “These guys haven’t been big on Medicare from the beginning. And they’ve always been about Social Security as little as you can do. Look, folks, use your common sense. Who do you trust on this?”

    At the time, Democrats felt Biden had at least held his own, restoring the party’s momentum after Obama’s surprisingly listless performance eight days earlier in his first debate against Romney. And Democrats through the rest of the campaign railed against the Republican ticket as a threat to Social Security and Medicare.

    But on election day, those arguments did not translate into gains for Obama and Biden among seniors or the older working adults (aged 45-64) nearing retirement. As Hogan noted, the newly passed Affordable Care Act, which generated some of its funding through savings in Medicare, was extremely unpopular at the time among older voters. Obama and Biden not only lost seniors and the older working age adults, but actually ran slightly more poorly among both groups in 2012 than they did in 2008.

    In fact, no Democratic presidential nominee since Al Gore in 2000 has carried most seniors in a presidential campaign; Obama in 2008 was the only one since Gore to carry most of the older working age adults. Among older Whites, the Democratic deficit is even more pronounced: the Republican presidential nominee has carried around three-fifths of both White seniors and those nearing retirement in each of the past four elections. Biden in 2020 slightly improved on Hillary Clinton’s anemic 2016 performance with both groups, but still lost to Trump by 15 percentage points among White seniors and by 23 points among the Whites nearing retirement, according to the exit polls conducted by Edison Research for a consortium of media organizations including CNN. Biden performed especially poorly among older Whites without a college degree – an economically stressed group heavily reliant on the federal retirement programs.

    Estimates by Catalist, a Democratic targeting firm, and the Pew Research Center likewise found that Trump in both 2016 and 2020 beat his Democratic opponents among both seniors and the older working adults. Like the exit polls, the Catalist data show the Republican nominees carrying about three-fifths of White seniors and older working adults in each of the past three presidential elections.

    The story is similar in congressional contests. In House elections, the exit polls found Republicans winning all seniors and older working adults comfortably in the 2014 and 2022 midterm campaigns and narrowly carrying them even in 2018 when Democrats romped overall. In all three of those midterm congressional elections, Republicans carried about three-fifths of the near retirement White adults, while they also reached that elevated threshold among White seniors in both the 2014 and 2022 campaigns.

    Republicans have maintained these advantages with older voters despite polls showing that most Americans trust Democrats more than the GOP to protect Social Security and Medicare, and that most Americans, especially seniors, oppose the intermittently surfacing GOP proposals to partially privatize both programs.

    Politically, “Democrats have used Social Security and Medicare really a lot over the past two or three decades, maybe four decades,” said Jim Kessler, executive vice president for policy at Third Way, a centrist Democratic group. “The payoff has been a lot less than Democrats have generally thought it would be.”

    Could this time be different for Biden and the Democrats? Congressional Republicans have certainly provided plenty of evidence for his claim that they still hope to restructure the programs. The proposed 2023 budget by the Republican Study Committee, the members of which include about three-fourths of House Republicans, reprises the ideas of converting Medicare into a premium support system and establishing private investment accounts under Social Security, while also raising the retirement age for both programs and reducing Social Security benefits over time. And although Florida Sen. Rick Scott renounced the idea late last week, his “Rescue America” agenda did include a proposal to require Congress to reauthorize all federal programs, including Social Security and Medicare, every five years.

    These ideas have precipitated an unusual degree of open Republican dissension. Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell repeatedly, and unreservedly, denounced the Scott plan until the Florida senator backed off. Trump recently released a video in which he declared the GOP should not cut “a single penny” of Social Security or Medicare benefits – which put him directly at odds with the three-fourths of House Republicans in the Republican Study Committee. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, bending more toward Trump’s position, seems unlikely to incorporate into the GOP budget plans the RSC’s most sweeping changes in Social Security and Medicare.

    Kessler believes Biden may succeed where other Democrats have failed at hurting the GOP with the issue, and he argued that the conspicuous Republican infighting demonstrates they share that concern. “We are watching a high-profile battle that I’ve never really seen before on these issues in the Republican Party,” Kessler said. “And part of it is clearly they think it’s a problem when they didn’t years ago. If they think it’s a problem, maybe it’s a problem.”

    Stuart Stevens, who served as Romney’s chief strategist in the 2012 campaign but has since become a fierce critic of the Trump-era GOP, also believes the party could face more risk over its entitlement agenda than it did back then. The reason is that he thinks the idea of sunsetting Social Security and Medicare every five years, even if Scott is trying to jettison it, may prove more immediately tangible and understandable to voters than Ryan’s complex ideas of partially privatizing both programs.

    “The question I always ask myself in campaigns is ‘are you talking about something the other side doesn’t want to talk about?’” Stevens said. “That’s probably a good sign that they are losing on the issue.”

    Whether Biden proves more effective than other recent Democrats at attracting older voters around Social Security and Medicare will likely pivot on whether seniors believe the GOP genuinely would cut the programs if given the power to do so, argued Robert Blendon, a professor emeritus at the Harvard School of Public Health, who specializes in public attitudes about the social safety net. “If the senior community actually believes that it’s being threatened it really would affect their votes,” he predicted. But, he added, “as long as they are not threatened, the other values of seniors on top issues more and more correspond with Republicans.”

    There’s no doubt about the second half of that equation. Polling has consistently found that older Whites, in particular, are more receptive than their younger counterparts to hardline Trump-era GOP messages around crime, immigration and the broader currents of racial and cultural change: for instance, about half of Whites older than 50 agree that discrimination against Whites is now as big a problem as bias against minorities, a far higher percentage than among younger Whites, according to a new national survey by the Public Religion Research Institute. Older Whites are also more likely than younger generations to lack a college degree or to identify as Christians, attributes that generally predict sympathy for GOP cultural and racial arguments.

    Through the 21st century, those cultural and racial attitudes among older White voters have consistently trumped any concerns they may hold about the Republican commitment to Social Security and Medicare. Despite Biden’s impassioned articulation of the case against the GOP, that didn’t change even in 2012 when Republicans placed on their national ticket a vice presidential nominee who directly embodied the GOP aspirations to reconfigure and retrench those programs.

    Even small changes in seniors’ preferences could have a big impact in closely balanced states with a large retiree population like Arizona and Pennsylvania. But the entrenched GOP advantage among older voters over the past two decades suggests Biden’s hopes in 2024 may pivot less on improving with the “gray” than maximizing his vote among the “brown”: the diverse, younger generations that recoil from the same Republican messages on culture and race that electrify so many older Whites.

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