ReportWire

Tag: iab-housing market

  • China’s property crash is prompting banks to offer mortgages to 70-year-olds | CNN Business

    China’s property crash is prompting banks to offer mortgages to 70-year-olds | CNN Business

    [ad_1]


    Hong Kong
    CNN
     — 

    The property market in China is so depressed that some banks are resorting to drastic measures, including allowing people to pay off mortgages until they are 95 years old.

    Some banks in the cities of Nanning, Hangzhou, Ningbo and Beijing have extended the upper age limit on mortgages to between 80 and 95, according to a number of state media reports. That means people aged 70 can now take out loans with maturities of between 10 and 25 years.

    China’s property market is in the midst of a historic downturn. New home prices had fallen for 16 straight months through December. Sales by the country’s top 100 developers last year were only 60% of 2021 levels.

    Analysts say the new age limits, which aren’t yet official national policy, aim to breathe life into the country’s moribund property market while taking into consideration China’s rapidly aging population, said Yan Yuejin, a property analyst at E-House China Holdings, a real estate services firm, in a recent research note.

    “Basically, it’s a policy tool to stimulate housing demand, as it can alleviate the debt payment burden and encourage home buying,” he added.

    The new mortgage terms are like a “relay loan.” If the elderly borrower isn’t able to repay, his or her children must carry on with the mortgage, he said.

    Last month, China reported that its population shrank in 2022 for the first time in more than 60 years, a new milestone in the country’s deepening demographic crisis with significant implications for its slowing economy. The number of people aged 60 or above increased to 280 million by the end of last year, or 19.8% of the population.

    The mortgage borrower’s age plus mortgage length should not usually exceed 70 years, according to previous rules published by the banking regulator. China’s average life expectancy is around 78.

    The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission hasn’t commented publicly about the new terms.

    But bank branches across the country are setting their own terms on these multi-generational loans.

    According to the Beijing News, a branch of Bank of Communications in the city said borrowers as old as 70 can take out home loans lasting 25 years, which means the upper age limit on its mortgages has been lifted to 95.

    But there are also prerequisites: The mortgage needs to be guaranteed by the borrower’s children, and their combined monthly income must be at least twice the monthly mortgage payment.

    Separately, a branch of Citic Bank has extended the upper age limit on its mortgages to 80, the paper said, citing a bank client manager.

    Calls to the Beijing branches of Citic Bank and Bank of Communications were not answered.

    Hong Hao, chief economist at Grow Investment Group, said this was a “drastic” measure and “could be a marketing gimmick to attract the elderly to pay [mortgages] for the younger generation.”

    Yan from E-House said the main beneficiary of the move might not be the elderly, but middle-aged borrowers between 40 and 59. Under the extended payment cutoff age, those people could get a mortgage for 30 years — the maximum length allowed in China.

    Compared with previous terms, it means those borrowers could pay less each month.

    “It is obviously a way to alleviate the debt payment burden,” said Hong.

    According to calculations by E-House, if a bank extends the upper age limit to 80, borrowers aged from 40 to 59 can get 10 additional years on their mortgages. Assuming their mortgage is one million yuan ($145,416), then their monthly payment can be reduced by 1,281 yuan ($186), or 21%.

    Chinese households have grown reluctant to purchase new homes in the past year, as the now-defunct Covid curbs, falling home prices and rising unemployment have discouraged would-be buyers. Last summer, protests that erupted in dozens of cities were staged by people refusing to pay mortgages on unfinished homes, dealing a further blow to market sentiment.

    Authorities have rolled out a flurry of stimulus measures to try to revive the housing market, including several cuts to lending rates and measures to ease the liquidity crisis for developers — so that they can resume stalled construction and deliver pre-sold homes to buyers as quickly as possible.

    Other than Beijing, some banks in Nanning, the provincial capital of Guangxi province, have raised the upper age limit on mortgages to 80, according to the city’s official newspaper Nanguo Zaobao.

    In the eastern cities of Ningbo and Hangzhou, several local lenders are advertising age limits of 75 or 80, a relaxation from previous rules, according to reports by government-owned Ningbo Daily and Hangzhou Daily.

    “If the applicant is too old to meet the loan requirement, they can have their children as the guarantor,” a lender was quoted as saying.

    But Wang Yuchen, a real estate lawyer at Beijing Jinsu Law Firm, warned such mortgages were “risky.”

    It’s understandable that many cities are trying to revive their housing markets by reducing the monthly debt payment and enlisting more elderly people into the pool of home buyers, he said in a written commentary on his WeChat account.

    “But the elderly have relatively poor repayment ability. On the one hand, it could affect their quality of life in old age, as they continue carrying the mortgage debt mountain and work for the bank until the last moment of their lives,” he said. “On the other hand, the associated risks may be transferred to their children, increasing their financial pressure.”

    “For some home buyers, choosing this way to purchase a house is probably because of their lack of funds. But it’s risky to do so at this time,” he said, adding that the property market is in a structural downturn and the government is still working to curb speculation.

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • Inflation pushes up mortgage rates for second week in a row | CNN Business

    Inflation pushes up mortgage rates for second week in a row | CNN Business

    [ad_1]


    Washington, DC
    CNN
     — 

    Mortgage rates climbed higher for the second consecutive week, following four weeks of declines. Inflation is running hotter, making rates more volatile, with the expectation that they will move in the 6% to 7% range over the next few weeks.

    The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.32% in the week ending February 16, up from 6.12% the week before, according to data from Freddie Mac released Thursday. A year ago, the 30-year fixed-rate was 3.92%.

    After climbing for most of 2022, mortgage rates had been trending downward since November, as various economic indicators indicated inflation may have peaked. But a stronger-than-expected jobs report and a Consumer Price Index report that showed inflation is only moderately easing suggest the Federal Reserve could continue hiking its benchmark lending rate in its battle against inflation.

    Inflation is keeping mortgage rates volatile, said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist.

    “The economy is showing signs of resilience, mainly due to consumer spending, and rates are increasing,” said Khater. “Overall housing costs are also increasing and therefore impacting inflation, which continues to persist.”

    The average mortgage rate is based on mortgage applications that Freddie Mac receives from thousands of lenders across the country. The survey includes only borrowers who put 20% down and have excellent credit. Many buyers who put down less money upfront or have less than ideal credit will pay more than the average rate.

    Investors are digesting the latest economic data, said George Ratiu, Realtor.com manager of economic research.

    The Fed does not set the interest rates that borrowers pay on mortgages directly, but its actions influence them. Mortgage rates tend to track the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds, which move based on a combination of anticipation about the Fed’s actions, what the Fed actually does and investors’ reactions. When Treasury yields go up, so do mortgage rates; when they go down, mortgage rates tend to follow.

    “While the Fed signaled that it will continue to raise rates this year, the moves are expected to come in 25 basis point increments, a less aggressive tightening than what we saw in 2022,” said Ratiu. “The central bank is acknowledging that it sees its monetary actions having a tangible effect on inflation. The CPI data out this week seems to confirm the bank’s views.”

    At the same time, he said, many companies expect the economy will enter a recession as a result of the Fed’s rate hikes, even in the face of data pointing to continued resilience.

    “This expectation is becoming more visible in the growing number of companies resorting to layoffs as a hedge against a potential economic slowdown,” he said. “People who are laid off pull back on spending, and even those who are still employed may begin to do the same due to worries about losing their job, thus potentially sending consumer spending into a downward spiral.”

    For home buyers, the cost of financing a home is expected to go up.

    Already, rates have been climbing in recent weeks, leading to a drop in mortgage applications. Last week, applications fell 7.7% from one week earlier, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

    Buyers are proving to be interest rate sensitive, according to MBA.

    “Purchase applications dropped to their lowest level since the beginning of this year and were more than 40% lower than a year ago,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s vice president and deputy chief economist. “Potential buyers remain quite sensitive to the current level of mortgage rates, which are more than two percentage points above last year’s levels and have significantly reduced buyers’ purchasing power.”

    Mortgage rates are expected to move in the 6% to 7% range over the next few weeks, said Ratiu.

    For housing markets, he said, “the rebound in rates translates into higher mortgage payments, adding pressure on homebuyers.”

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • Microsoft and Google promised to invest in these communities. Now they’re backtracking | CNN Business

    Microsoft and Google promised to invest in these communities. Now they’re backtracking | CNN Business

    [ad_1]



    CNN Business
     — 

    When Microsoft President Brad Smith announced in February 2021 that the tech giant had purchased a 90-acre plot of land in Atlanta’s westside, he laid out a bold vision: The company, he said, would invest in the community and put it “on the path toward becoming one of Microsoft’s largest hubs” in the United States.

    The announcement, which was met with enthusiastic coverage in local media, promised the construction of affordable housing, programs to help public school children develop digital skills, support for historically Black colleges and universities, new funding for local nonprofits, and affordable broadband for more people in Atlanta.

    “Our biggest question today is not what Atlanta can do to support Microsoft,” Smith wrote. “It’s what Microsoft can do to support Atlanta.”

    Two years later, Microsoft announced a series of cost-cutting efforts, including eliminating 10,000 jobs, making changes to its hardware portfolio and consolidating leases. As part of those moves, Microsoft put development of its Atlanta campus on pause this month, a spokesperson confirmed to CNN.

    The decision to pause plans feels like a “broken promise” that caught many residents of the predominately Black neighborhood where Microsoft planned to build the campus off-guard, according to Jasmine Hope, a local resident and chair of her neighborhood planning unit.

    “All the promises of, ‘We’re going to put a grocery store here, we’re going to bring jobs to the area, we’re going to have a pipeline between the schools and Microsoft to create jobs,’ all that seems like it’s out the window,” she told CNN. “But the consequences are still being felt by the neighborhood.”

    A Microsoft spokesperson said the land is not for sale, “and we still aim to set aside a quarter of the 90 acres for community needs.” Microsoft will continue efforts “to create a positive impact in the region and be a contributing community partner,” the spokesperson added.

    As the tech industry boomed in the United States throughout the past decade, cities across the country vied to become tech hubs. State and city officials competed for Silicon Valley giants to bring offices, data centers and warehouses to their communities in hopes of creating jobs and bringing other benefits that cash-strapped local governments might struggle to fund on their own. In perhaps the biggest example of this, 238 communities submitted bids in 2017 to be home to Amazon’s second headquarters, with some offering major tax breaks or even to rename land “city of Amazon.”

    But now, a number of large tech companies are rethinking their costs, after years of seemingly limitless hiring and expansion. The reason: a perfect storm of shifting pandemic demand for online services, rising interest rates and fears of a looming recession. Much of the focus of this tech downturn so far has been on the long list of layoffs, but companies have also teased plans to dramatically reduce real estate expenses across the country.

    Facebook-parent Meta, Microsoft, Salesforce and Snap have each shuttered offices or announced plans to cut back on real estate, according to recent corporate announcements, filings and local news reports. Some tech companies have said they’ll let leases expire or go fully remote. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg said his company is “transitioning to desk-sharing for people who already spend most of their time outside the office.”

    The effect of those pullbacks can already be felt across the country, from New York City, where Meta reportedly scaled back its real estate footprint in the Hudson Yards neighborhood, to San Francisco, where some local businesses say they are facing the ripple effects of remote work and multiple tech office closures.

    “Tech had pretty much gained market share to become the top industry leasing office space across the US, and that started back in 2012, 2013,” said Colin Yasukochi, the executive director of the Tech Insights Center at CBRE, a commercial real estate firm. In 2022, however, finance and insurance companies overtook the tech industry for the highest share of US office leases, according to CBRE’s data.

    “Really, over the last couple of quarters, you’ve seen the tech industry decrease its leasing activity pretty significantly,” he added. “That’s really, I think, the biggest impact that you’ve seen regarding these layoffs and austerity measures: the leasing activity pullback by the tech industry.”

    But the impact of that pullback is perhaps most stark in the communities with less robust tech hubs.

    Quarry Yards, on Atlanta’s westside, has been a source of some promise and dashed hopes. In 2017, Georgia officials included the formerly industrial area on a list of sites where Amazon could build its second headquarters, as part of its pitch to the e-commerce giant. Amazon ultimately went with other cities, but four years later, another Seattle tech giant scooped up the land.

    After the purchase, Microsoft described Quarry Yards as a place with “wide, tree-lined streets” but “broken sidewalks.” The area, Microsoft said, is “food desert with no grocery store, pharmacy or bank.”

    The community, according to Hope, consists of “a lot of elderly, Black neighbors.” These residents, she said, have been worried about gentrification and displacement for years as housing prices and property taxes surge in the metro Atlanta region.

    Jasmine Hope, PhD, Department of Rehabilitation Medicine, Motions Analysis Laboratory, Emory University.

    “Just the announcement of Microsoft coming into town” brought new buyers and developers into the area, she said, exacerbating these longstanding concerns. Data from Zillow indicates average home values in the neighborhood surged more at a significantly faster pace between January 2020 and December 2022 than Atlanta as a whole.

    But residents also had cautious optimism about the benefits Microsoft promised to the community, according to Hope. Now, the community is left with higher prices but none of the promised improvements or economic opportunities. “We’re not going to see any benefits and only deal with the consequences,” she said.

    “It feels like the community is now going to be burdened by this,” she said.

    Hope’s community isn’t alone in confronting the whiplash of Silicon Valley’s real estate pullback. Late last month, the city of Kirkland, Washington, said in a press release that it had been notified by Google that the company will not be proceeding with its proposed redevelopment project that initially aimed to bring a massive new campus to the city.

    In a Kirkland City Council meeting held just last summer, representatives from Google teased a slew of community benefits from the build — including infrastructure improvements, such as the creation of bike lanes and pedestrian trails, as well as a more than $12 million investment in affordable housing. The planning process between Google and the city had been taking place since the fall of 2020.

    “As we continue to shape our future workplace experience, we’re working to ensure our real estate investments meet the current and future needs of our workforce,” Ryan Lamont, a Google spokesperson, told CNN in a statement. “Our campuses are at the heart of our Google community, and we remain committed to our long-term presence in Washington state.”

    Even San Francisco, whose fortunes are tied to Silicon Valley more than any other city, is showing signs of strain from the one-two punch of the shift to remote work and office closures.

    Office vacancy rates in the city hit a record high of 27.6% in the final three months of last year, according to CBRE, compared to the pre-pandemic figure of 3.7%.

    “The previous high was about 20%, after the Dotcom bust,” Yasukochi, of CBRE, told CNN. “We’re at the highest point that our records have shown.”

    The rise of remote and hybrid work had been a major driver in tech giants cutting back on their real estate investments, Yasukochi said. Then came the recent cost-cutting measures.

    Local business owners say they are now feeling the impacts.

    An office sits vacant on October 27, 2022 in San Francisco, California. According to a report by commercial real estate firm CBRE, the city of San Francisco has a record 27.1 million square feet of office space available as the city struggles to rebound from the Covid-19 pandemic. The US Census Bureau reports an estimated 35% of employees in San Francisco and San Jose continue to work from home.

    Mark Nagle, the owner of a 21-year-old Irish pub and restaurant in downtown San Francisco called The Chieftain, told CNN he has witnessed a “cascade of closures” of tech and corporate offices in his neighborhood recently — including the shuttering of a Snapchat office just down the street.

    “We’re in a great location normally, we’re downtown,” Nagle said. But now his business is surrounded by several vacant retail spaces and multiple lots that are under construction.

    The number of workers regularly coming into the area has not bounced back since the start of the pandemic, Nagle said, and neither has his business. Nagle said that in addition to workers stopping by for a drink at the end of their days, nearby companies would frequently hold events and meetings at The Chieftain, but that those have also largely dropped off.

    At least six bars and restaurants in a two-block radius of him have shuttered in recent years, he said.

    “You’re making do with less and it’s made the business so much more unpredictable,” he added. “And we’re one of the lucky ones that can keep their doors open.”

    – CNN’s Clare Duffy contributed to this report.

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • Fact check: Biden makes false and misleading claims in economic speech | CNN Politics

    Fact check: Biden makes false and misleading claims in economic speech | CNN Politics

    [ad_1]


    Washington
    CNN
     — 

    President Joe Biden delivered a Thursday speech to hail economic progress during his administration and to attack congressional Republicans for their proposals on the economy and the social safety net.

    Some of Biden’s claims in the speech were false, misleading or lacking critical context, though others were correct. Here’s a breakdown of the 14 claims CNN fact-checked.

    Touting the bipartisan infrastructure law he signed in 2021, Biden said, “Last year, we funded 700,000 major construction projects – 700,000 all across America. From highways to airports to bridges to tunnels to broadband.”

    Facts First: Biden’s “700,000” figure is wildly inaccurate; it adds an extra two zeros to the correct figure Biden used in a speech last week and the White House has also used before: 7,000 projects. The White House acknowledged his misstatement later on Thursday by correcting the official transcript to say 7,000 rather than 700,000.

    Biden said, “Well, here’s the deal: I put a – we put a cap, and it’s now in effect – now in effect, as of January 1 – of $2,000 a year on prescription drug costs for seniors.”

    Facts First: Biden’s claims that this cap is now in effect and that it came into effect on January 1 are false. The $2,000 annual cap contained in the Inflation Reduction Act that Biden signed last year – on Medicare Part D enrollees’ out-of-pocket spending on covered prescription drugs – takes effect in 2025. The maximum may be higher than $2,000 in subsequent years, since it is tied to Medicare Part D’s per capita costs.

    Asked for comment, a White House official noted that other Inflation Reduction Act health care provisions that will save Americans money did indeed come into effect on January 1, 2023.

    – CNN’s Tami Luhby contributed to this item.

    Criticizing former President Donald Trump over his handling of the Covid-19 pandemic, Biden said, “Back then, only 3.5 million people had been – even had their first vaccination, because the other guy and the other team didn’t think it mattered a whole lot.”

    Facts First: Biden is free to criticize Trump’s vaccine rollout, but his “only 3.5 million” figure is misleading at best. As of the day Trump left office in January 2021, about 19 million people had received a first shot of a Covid-19 vaccine, according to figures published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The “3.5 million” figure Biden cited is, in reality, the number of people at the time who had received two shots to complete their primary vaccination series.

    Someone could perhaps try to argue that completing a primary series is what Biden meant by “had their first vaccination” – but he used a different term, “fully vaccinated,” to refer to the roughly 230 million people in that very same group today. His contrasting language made it sound like there are 230 million people with at least two shots today versus 3.5 million people with just one shot when he took office. That isn’t true.

    Biden said Republicans want to cut taxes for billionaires, “who pay virtually only 3% of their income now – 3%, they pay.”

    Facts First: Biden’s “3%” claim is incorrect. For the second time in less than a week, Biden inaccurately described a 2021 finding from economists in his administration that the wealthiest 400 billionaire families paid an average of 8.2% of their income in federal individual income taxes between 2010 and 2018; after CNN inquired about Biden’s “3%” claim on Thursday, the White House published a corrected official transcript that uses “8%” instead. Also, it’s important to note that even that 8% number is contested, since it is an alternative calculation that includes unrealized capital gains that are not treated as taxable income under federal law.

    “Biden’s numbers are way too low,” said Howard Gleckman, senior fellow at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute think tank, though Gleckman also said we don’t know precisely what tax rates billionaires do pay. Gleckman wrote in an email: “In 2019, Berkeley economists Emmanuel Saez and Gabe Zucman estimated the top 400 households paid an average effective tax rate of about 23 percent in 2018. They got a lot of attention at the time because that rate was lower than the average rate of 24 percent for the bottom half of the income distribution. But it still was way more than 2 or 3, or even 8 percent.”

    Biden has cited the 8% statistic in various other speeches, but unlike the administration economists who came up with it, he tends not to explain that it doesn’t describe tax rates in a conventional way. And regardless, he said “3%” in this speech and “2%” in a speech last week.

    Biden cited a 2021 report from the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy think tank that found that 55 of the country’s largest corporations had made $40 billion in profit in their previous fiscal year but not paid any federal corporate income taxes. Before touting the 15% alternative corporate minimum tax he signed into law in last year’s Inflation Reduction Act, Biden said, “The days are over when corporations are paying zero in federal taxes.”

    Facts First: Biden exaggerated. The new minimum tax will reduce the number of companies that don’t pay any federal taxes, but it’s not true that the days of companies paying zero are “over.” That’s because the minimum tax, on the “book income” companies report to investors, only applies to companies with at least $1 billion in average annual income. According to the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, only 14 of the companies on its 2021 list of 55 non-payers reported having US pre-tax income of at least $1 billion.

    In other words, there will clearly still be some large and profitable corporations paying no federal income tax even after the minimum tax takes effect this year. The exact number is not yet known.

    Matthew Gardner, a senior fellow at the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, told CNN in the fall that the new tax is “an important step forward from the status quo” and that it will raise substantial revenue, but he also said: “I wouldn’t want to assert that the minimum tax will end the phenomenon of zero-tax profitable corporations. A more accurate phrasing would be to say that the minimum tax will *help* ensure that *the most profitable* corporations pay at least some federal income tax.”

    There are lots of nuances to the tax; you can read more specifics here. Asked for comment on Thursday, a White House official told CNN: “The Inflation Reduction Act ensures the wealthiest corporations pay a 15% minimum tax, precisely the corporations the President focused on during the campaign and in office. The President’s full Made in America tax plan would ensure all corporations pay a 15% minimum tax, and the President has called on Congress to pass that plan.”

    Noting the big increase in the federal debt under Trump, Biden said that his administration has taken a “different path” and boasted: “As a result, the last two years – my administration – we cut the deficit by $1.7 trillion, the largest reduction in debt in American history.”

    Facts First: Biden’s boast leaves out important context. It is true that the federal deficit fell by a total of $1.7 trillion under Biden in the 2021 and 2022 fiscal years, including a record $1.4 trillion drop in 2022 – but it is highly questionable how much credit Biden deserves for this reduction. Biden did not mention that the primary reason the deficit fell so substantially was that it had skyrocketed to a record high under Trump in 2020 because of bipartisan emergency pandemic relief spending, then fell as expected as the spending expired as planned. Independent analysts say Biden’s own actions, including his laws and executive orders, have had the overall effect of adding to current and projected future deficits, not reducing those deficits.

    Dan White, senior director of economic research at Moody’s Analytics – an economics firm whose assessments Biden has repeatedly cited during his presidency – told CNN’s Matt Egan in October: “On net, the policies of the administration have increased the deficit, not reduced it.” The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, an advocacy group, wrote in September that Biden’s actions will add more than $4.8 trillion to deficits from 2021 through 2031, or $2.5 trillion if you don’t count the American Rescue Plan pandemic relief bill of 2021.

    National Economic Council director Brian Deese wrote on the White House website last week that the American Rescue Plan pandemic relief bill “facilitated a strong economic recovery and enabled the responsible wind-down of emergency spending programs,” thereby reducing the deficit; David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Funds, told Egan in October that the Biden administration does deserve credit for the recovery that has pushed the deficit downward. And Deese correctly noted that Biden’s signature legislation, last year’s Inflation Reduction Act, is expected to bring down deficits by more than $200 billion over the next decade.

    Still, the deficit-reducing impact of that one bill is expected to be swamped by the deficit-increasing impact of various additional bills and policies Biden has approved.

    Biden said, “Wages are up, and they’re growing faster than inflation. Over the past six months, inflation has gone down every month and, God willing, will continue to do that.”

    Facts First: Biden’s claim that wages are up and growing faster than inflation is true if you start the calculation seven months ago; “real” wages, which take inflation into account, started rising in mid-2022 as inflation slowed. (Biden is right that inflation has declined, on an annual basis, every month for the last six months.) However, real wages are lower today than they were both a full year ago and at the beginning of Biden’s presidency in January 2021. That’s because inflation was so high in 2021 and the beginning of 2022.

    There are various ways to measure real wages. Real average hourly earnings declined 1.7% between December 2021 and December 2022, while real average weekly earnings (which factors in the number of hours people worked) declined 3.1% over that period.

    Biden said he was disappointed that the first bill passed by the new Republican majority in the House of Representatives “added $114 billion to the deficit.”

    Facts First: Biden is correct about how the bill would affect the deficit if it became law. He accurately cited an estimate from the government’s nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.

    The bill would eliminate more than $71 billion of the $80 billion in additional funding for the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) that Biden signed into law in the Inflation Reduction Act. The Congressional Budget Office found that taking away this funding – some of which the Biden administration said will go toward increased audits of high-income individuals and large corporations – would result in a loss of nearly $186 billion in government revenue between 2023 and 2032, for a net increase to the deficit of about $114 billion.

    The Republican bill has no chance of becoming law under Biden, who has vowed to veto it in the highly unlikely event it got through the Democratic-controlled Senate.

    Biden said that “MAGA Republicans” in the House “want to impose a 30 percent national sales tax on everything from food, clothing, school supplies, housing, cars – a whole deal.” He said they want to do that because “they want to eliminate the income tax system.”

    Facts First: This is a fair description of the Republicans’ “FairTax” bill. The bill would eliminate federal income taxes, plus the payroll tax, capital gains tax and estate tax, and replace it with a national sales tax. The bill describes a rate of 23% on the “gross payments” on a product or service, but when the tax rate is described in the way consumers are used to sales taxes being described, it’s actually right around 30%, as a pro-FairTax website acknowledges.

    It is not clear how much support the bill currently has among the House Republican caucus. Notably, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy told CNN’s Manu Raju this week that he opposes the bill – though, while seeking right-wing votes for his bid for speaker in early January, he promised its supporters that it would be considered in committee. Biden wryly said in his speech, “The Republican speaker says he’s not so sure he’s for it.”

    Biden claimed the unemployment rate “is the lowest it’s been in 50 years.”

    Facts First: This is true. The unemployment rate was just below 3.5% in December, the lowest figure since 1969.

    The headline monthly rate, which is rounded to a single decimal place, was reported as 3.5% in December and also reported as 3.5% in three months of President Donald Trump’s tenure, in late 2019 and in early 2020. But if you look at more precise figures, December was indeed the lowest since 1969 – 3.47% – just below the figures for February 2020, January 2020 and September 2019.

    Biden said that the unemployment rates for Black and Hispanic Americans are “near record lows” and that the unemployment rate for people with disabilities is “the lowest ever recorded” and the “lowest ever in history.”

    Facts First: Biden’s claims are accurate, though it’s worth noting that the unemployment rate for people with disabilities has only been released by the government since 2008.

    The Black or African American unemployment rate was 5.7% in December, not far from the record low of 5.3% that was set in August 2019. (This data series goes back to 1972.) The rate was 9.2% in January 2021, the month Biden became president. The Hispanic or Latino unemployment rate was 4.1% in December, just above the record low of 4.0% that was set in September 2019. (This data series goes back to 1973.) The rate was 8.5% in January 2021.

    The unemployment rate for people with disabilities was 5.0% in December, the lowest since the beginning of the data series in 2008. The rate was 12.0% in January 2021.

    Biden said that fewer families are facing foreclosure than before the pandemic.

    Facts First: Biden is correct. According to a report published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, about 28,500 people had new foreclosure notations on their credit reports in the third quarter of 2022, the most recent quarter for which data is available; that was down from about 71,420 people with new foreclosure notations in the fourth quarter of 2019 and 74,860 people in the first quarter of 2020.

    Foreclosures plummeted in the second quarter of 2020 because of government moratoriums put in place because of the Covid-19 pandemic. Foreclosures spiked in 2022, relative to 2020-2021 levels, after the expiry of these moratoriums, but they remained very low by historical standards.

    Biden said, “More American families have health insurance today than any time in American history.”

    Facts First: Biden’s claim is accurate. An analysis provided to CNN by the Kaiser Family Foundation, which studies US health care, found that about 295 million US residents had health insurance in 2021, the highest on record – and Jennifer Tolbert, the foundation’s director for state health reform, told CNN this week that “I expect the number of people with insurance continued to increase in 2022.”

    Tolbert noted that the number of insured residents generally rises over time because of population growth, but she added that “it is not a given” that there will be an increase in the number of insured residents every year – the number declined slightly under Trump from 2018 to 2019, for example – and that “policy changes as well as economic factors also affect these numbers.”

    As CNN’s Tami Luhby has reported, sign-ups on the federal insurance exchange created by the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare, have spiked nearly 50% under Biden. Biden’s 2021 American Rescue Plan pandemic relief law and then the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act temporarily boosted federal premium subsidies for exchange enrollees, and the Biden administration has also taken various other steps to get people to sign up on the exchanges. In addition, enrollment in Medicaid health insurance has increased significantly during the Covid-19 pandemic, in part because of a bipartisan 2020 law that temporarily prevented people from being disenrolled from the program.

    The percentage of residents without health insurance fell to an all-time low of 8.0% in the first quarter of 2022, according to an analysis published last summer by the federal government’s Department of Health and Human Services. That meant there were 26.4 million people without health insurance, down from 48.3 million in 2010, the year Obamacare was signed into law.

    Biden said, “And over the last two years, more than 10 million people have applied to start a small business. That’s more than any two years in all of recorded American history.”

    Facts First: This is true. There were about 5.4 million business applications in 2021, the highest since 2005 (the first year for which the federal government released this data for a full year), and about 5.1 million business applications in 2022. Not every application turns into a real business, but the number of “high-propensity” business applications – those deemed to have a high likelihood of turning into a business with a payroll – also hit a record in 2021 and saw its second-highest total in 2022.

    Trump’s last full year in office, 2020, also set a then-record for total and high-propensity applications. There are various reasons for the pandemic-era boom in entrepreneurship, which began after millions of Americans lost their jobs in early 2020. Among them: some newly unemployed workers seized the moment to start their own enterprises; Americans had extra money from stimulus bills signed by Trump and Biden; interest rates were particularly low until a series of rate hikes that began in the spring of 2022.

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • One news publication had an AI tool write articles. It didn’t go well | CNN Business

    One news publication had an AI tool write articles. It didn’t go well | CNN Business

    [ad_1]


    New York
    CNN
     — 

    News outlet CNET said Wednesday it has issued corrections on a number of articles, including some that it described as “substantial,” after using an artificial intelligence-powered tool to help write dozens of stories.

    The outlet has since hit pause on using the AI tool to generate stories, CNET’s editor-in-chief Connie Guglielmo said in an editorial on Wednesday.

    The disclosure comes after CNET was previously called out publicly for quietly using AI to write articles and later for errors. While using AI to automate news stories is not new – the Associated Press began doing so nearly a decade ago – the issue has gained new attention amid the rise of ChatGPT, a viral new AI chatbot tool that can quickly generate essays, stories and song lyrics in response to user prompts.

    Guglielmo said CNET used an “internally designed AI engine,” not ChatGPT, to help write 77 published stories since November. She said this amounted to about 1% of the total content published on CNET during the same period, and was done as part of a “test” project for the CNET Money team “to help editors create a set of basic explainers around financial services topics.”

    Some headlines from stories written using the AI tool include, “Does a Home Equity Loan Affect Private Mortgage Insurance?” and “How to Close A Bank Account.”

    “Editors generated the outlines for the stories first, then expanded, added to and edited the AI drafts before publishing,” Guglielmo wrote. “After one of the AI-assisted stories was cited, rightly, for factual errors, the CNET Money editorial team did a full audit.”

    The result of the audit, she said, was that CNET identified additional stories that required correction, “with a small number requiring substantial correction.” CNET also identified several other stories with “minor issues such as incomplete company names, transposed numbers, or language that our senior editors viewed as vague.”

    One correction, which was added to the end of an article titled “What Is Compound Interest?” states that the story initially gave some wildly inaccurate personal finance advice. “An earlier version of this article suggested a saver would earn $10,300 after a year by depositing $10,000 into a savings account that earns 3% interest compounding annually. The article has been corrected to clarify that the saver would earn $300 on top of their $10,000 principal amount,” the correction states.

    Another correction suggests the AI tool plagiarized. “We’ve replaced phrases that were not entirely original,” according to the correction added to an article on how to close a bank account.

    Guglielmo did not state how many of the 77 published stories required corrections, nor did she break down how many required “substantial” fixes versus more “minor issues.” Guglielmo said the stories that have been corrected include an editors’ note explaining what was changed.

    CNET did not immediately respond to CNN’s request for comment.

    Despite the issues, Guglielmo left the door open to resuming use of the AI tool. “We’ve paused and will restart using the AI tool when we feel confident the tool and our editorial processes will prevent both human and AI errors,” she said.

    Guglielmo also said that CNET has more clearly disclosed to readers which stories were compiled using the AI engine. The outlet took some heat from critics on social media for not making overtly clear to its audience that “By CNET Money Staff” meant it was written using AI tools. The new byline is just: “By CNET Money.”

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • ‘We’re trapped’: Britons in homes with unsafe cladding see no way out as living costs soar | CNN

    ‘We’re trapped’: Britons in homes with unsafe cladding see no way out as living costs soar | CNN

    [ad_1]


    London
    CNN
     — 

    In May 2017, Sophie Bichener did what many in their twenties are unable to do: buy a home. She paid around £230,000 (around $295,000 at the time) for her two-bedroom apartment in a high-rise building in a town north of London, where a train could get her to work in the capital in less than half an hour. She had her foot on the first rung of Britain’s housing ladder, an increasingly difficult feat, and it felt like the only way was up.

    A month later, Bichener woke up to news that would change her life. A fire had broken out at a similar block to hers: the 24-story Grenfell Tower in west London, which was encased in flammable cladding. The material meant to keep out the wind and rain went up like a matchstick. The fire killed 72 people and left an entire community homeless and heartbroken. The ordeal sent Bichener into a panic. Was her building also at risk, she wondered?

    The burned remains of Grenfell stood uncovered for months, looming over one of London’s richest boroughs. It became a monument that to many symbolized the disastrous effects of austerity – the decade-long policy of cost-cutting embarked on by the Conservatives in response to the financial crisis of 2008. The tragedy was made all the more stark by its surroundings: the public housing block is just a five-minute walk from Kensington properties worth tens of millions of pounds. Look one way: scarcely imaginable wealth. The other: a hulking symbol of a broken and divided Britain.

    In the wake of the fire, there was a wave of promises from politicians that things would change – that building safety would be improved, social housing reformed, and that responsibility would be taken for the government agenda of public spending cuts, deregulation and privatization that acted as kindling for the tragedy that unfolded.

    But in the five years since, Britons living in tower blocks with unsafe cladding have found themselves stuck in a perpetual state of limbo. CNN spoke with 10 people, who all say they are paralyzed by fear that their buildings could catch fire at any moment, and crippled by costs thrust upon them to fix safety defects that were not their fault – despite the government promising they would not have to “pay a penny.”

    Now, their problems are compounded by a fresh disaster: a spiraling cost-of-living crisis. As energy prices and inflation soar, residents like Bichener are facing an impossible situation, burdened not only by sky-high bills but also the eye-watering expense of remediating properties that now feel more like prisons than homes.

    Residents told CNN they were living in a perpetual state of anxiety, inundated by text alerts informing them of mounting bills and waiting on tenterhooks for the next buzz of their phone. Some said their building insurance had quadrupled since they moved in, while others were burdened by ballooning service charges – hundreds of pounds a month for safety fixes that hadn’t been started.

    Many said they had left their mortgages on variable rates in the hopes they could eventually sell their apartments, but after the Bank of England hiked interest rates this fall their repayments had become untenable, with monthly payments almost doubling in some cases. Paired with the rising costs of living – more expensive energy, fuel and food – the residents CNN spoke with said they are finding themselves several thousand pounds a year poorer.

    When Bichener bought her flat in Vista Tower in Stevenage, a 16-story office block built in 1965 and converted into residential housing in 2016, there was “no mention” of fire hazards, she said. “When Grenfell happened we spoke to our local council just to double-check all the buildings in the town. We asked the management agent and freeholder [the owner of the apartment building and land] if they have any concerns. At that point, everyone was saying no, all these buildings are good,” Bichener told CNN.

    Vista Tower, right, in Stevenage. Britons living in unsafe buildings remain haunted by the memory of Grenfell.

    But there were soon signs of trouble. The developer that built the block put itself into liquidation – the first “red flag,” Bichener said. Emails to the freeholder went unanswered – the second. Then confirmation: In 2019, two years after Grenfell, the management agent reported that the building was unsafe. An inspection had found an array of hazards not previously listed.

    After the revelations, a group of former Grenfell residents came to visit Vista Tower to raise awareness about the nationwide cladding crisis. Bichener said that one man who had lost a family member in the Grenfell fire told her he was struck by the similarities: “He said he went cold.”

    In November 2020, she was hit with a life-changing bill from the freeholder. “The whole project, all of the remediation, came to about £15 million.” Split between the leaseholders, it worked out to be about £208,000 per flat.

    That bill – almost the same price she initially paid for the flat – has hung over Bichener’s head since. The government has offered little help and the political chaos in Britain has made matters worse. There have been seven housing secretaries in the five years since Grenfell, as the governing Conservative Party remains embroiled in internal strife. Some have begun to make progress – including threatening legal action to get the company that owns Vista Tower to pay up rather than passing the cost on to the residents – only to find themselves out of the job weeks later.

    “I can’t afford to live in this building anymore. I don’t want to pay the service charge, I don’t want to pay all of the horrific leaseholder costs. I just don’t want it. But I can’t get out.”

    Sophie Bichener

    Meanwhile, Bichener is still waiting for her life to get back on track. She is unable to sell, because banks are unwilling to lend against the property, and, in recent months, her mortgage, insurance and service charge have all shot up. The crippling costs meant she delayed getting married and has put off having children.

    “I can’t afford to live in this building anymore. I don’t want to pay the service charge, I don’t want to pay all of the horrific leaseholder costs. I just don’t want it. But I can’t get out,” Bichener, now 30 years old, said. “I’m trapped.”

    And she’s not alone. Hundreds of thousands of people are believed to be in the same boat, but the UK government has failed to commission a full audit, which means the scale of the impact is unclear. Peter Apps, deputy editor at Inside Housing, who has covered the story meticulously over the past five years, estimates there are likely more than 600,000 people in affected tall buildings and millions more in medium-rise towers – those between five and 10 stories. CNN has been unable to verify the precise number.

    The problems playing out now are the result of decades of poor policy choices, according to Apps. His new book detailing the Grenfell tragedy and subsequent inquiry, “Show Me the Bodies,” claims the UK “let Grenfell happen” through a combination of “deregulation, corporate greed and institutional indifference.”

    Evidence presented to the Grenfell Tower Inquiry found that the local council, which managed the building, had made a £300,000 ($389,400) saving by switching higher quality zinc cladding to a cheaper aluminum composite material (ACM). This meant for an additional £2,300 ($3,000) per flat, the fire might have been prevented.

    Any regulations demanding developers use better quality materials were seen as being “anti-business,” Apps told CNN. Developers did not even have to use qualified fire safety inspectors to carry out checks on their buildings – just individuals the developers themselves deemed to be “competent.”

    Five years on, the Grenfell victims' families are still waiting for answers -- and thousands are waiting for their buildings to be made safe.

    So extensive was the deregulation that the problems were not confined just to high-rise tower blocks – or even to cladding. Instead, many low-rise buildings suffer from problems ranging from poor fire cavities to flammable insulation.

    “The cladding wasn’t the issue at all,” said Jennifer Frame, a 44-year-old travel industry analyst, who lived in Richmond House in south-west London. “It was the fact that it was a timber frame building, with a cavity between that and the cladding,” she added, a safety defect that was confirmed by an inspection report.

    One night in September 2019, a fire broke out in a flat in Richmond House. Rather than being contained in one room, the cavity acted “like a chimney,” Frame said. An independent report commissioned by the building owner, Metropolitan Thames Valley Housing Association, and included in written evidence submitted to the UK parliament by residents, revealed that the cavity barriers were either “defective” or “entirely missing” at Richmond House, allowing the fire to spread “almost unhindered” through the 23-flat block.

    “The use of materials such as ACM within cladding systems has rightly attracted a lot of attention since Grenfell. It is now clear that there is a much wider failure by construction companies,” the residents said in their submission.

    Cladding is meant to keep buildings dry and warm, but lax regulations have resulted in flammable materials being used in many cases.

    Sixty residents lost their homes that night. Three years later, Frame is still living in temporary accommodation in the same borough of London, while paying the mortgage for her property which no longer exists. Perversely, she said she feels lucky that it’s only the mortgage – and not the monumental cost of remediations – that she’s on the hook for.

    “I do consider myself – for lack of a better word – one of the lucky ones, as we don’t have the threat of bankruptcy hanging over our head any more,” she said.

    CNN reached out for comment to the developer of Richmond House, Berkeley Group, but did not receive a reply. Berkeley Group has previously denied liability.

    Years of delay and disputes over who should cover the cost, combined with the sheer stress of living in unsafe buildings, have weighed heavily on residents.

    Bichener moved back to her parents’ house in 2020. “I just couldn’t face being there,” she said. “I ended up on anti-anxiety and anti-depression medication just from being in those four walls in a pandemic, in a dangerous home, with a life-changing sum of money that would potentially bankrupt me over my head.”

    At a rally for the End Our Cladding Scandal campaign, she recalled being with a group of people her age and how they all broke down in tears. “They’re the only people who understand the situation you’re in. Everyone’s having huge crises over this.”

    Their options are limited. Most can’t sell their properties, since banks won’t offer mortgages against them. Even if banks were to reverse this policy, it is unclear whether there would be a demand for them, given the spiraling costs of borrowing. According to the residents CNN spoke with, a scant few have been able to sell to cash buyers – but often at a 60-80% loss.

    Some have become “resentful landlords,” a term used by residents who are unable to sell their properties, but are so desperate to move out that they rent it out cheaply to others. Lilli Houghton, 30, rents out her flat in Leeds, a city in the north of England, at a loss to a new tenant. She still pays the service charge for her flat, while also renting a new place elsewhere.

    Most have no choice but to wait – but five years has felt like an eternity. When Zoe Bartley, a 29-year-old lawyer, bought her one-bedroom apartment in Chelmsford, a city in Essex, she thought she’d sell it within a few years to move into a family home.

    But she hasn’t been able to sell. She found a buyer in January 2020 – but their mortgage was declined after an inspection of the building found a number of fire safety defects.

    Bartley’s 15-month-old son still sleeps in her bedroom. When her two stepchildren come to stay, “they have to sleep in the living room,” she said. “When they were four and five and I’d just started dating their dad,” they were excited to have sleepovers in the living room. Now they’re nine and 10, “it’s just pathetic,” Bartley said.

    Bartley said she struggles to sleep knowing that a fire could break out at night. Others who spoke to CNN say they have trained their children on what to do when the alarms go off.

    Earlier this year, residents in unsafe buildings began to see some fledgling signs of progress. In a letter to developers, the then-housing secretary, Michael Gove, said it was “neither fair nor decent that innocent leaseholders … should be landed with bills they cannot afford to fix problems they did not cause.” He set out a plan to work with the industry to find a solution.

    First, he gave developers two months “to agree to a plan of action to fund remediation costs,” estimated at £4 billion (around $5.4 billion). That deadline passed with no agreement reached.

    To force developers’ hands, the Building Safety Act was passed into law in April, which requires the fire safety defects in all buildings above 11 meters to be fixed and created a fund to help cover the costs. The act implemented a “waterfall” system: Developers would be expected to pay first, but, if they are unable to, then the cost would fall to the building owners. If they are also unable to pay, only then would the cost fall to the leaseholders. Leaseholders’ costs were capped at £10,000 ($11,400), or £15,000 ($17,000) in London, for those who met certain criteria. The government asked 53 companies to sign this pledge; many did.

    For many residents, this came as a relief. They had faced life-changing bills for years, but the cap meant they wouldn’t be totally wiped out. It seemed the worst of their worries were over.

    But there was a problem: The pledge made by developers wasn’t legally binding. Even though the government has made money available for remediation, no mechanism has yet forced any developers to make use of it.

    Bichener still doesn't know when remediation work on Vista Tower will begin, how long it will take, or who will pay for it.

    One resident explained to CNN: “Prior to Michael Gove, your building owner could give you a bill to replace the cladding. They’re now not able to do that anymore, but that doesn’t mean your building gets fixed.”

    The government tried again. In July it published contracts to turn the “pledge into legally binding undertakings.” If developers signed the contract, this would commit them to remediating their buildings. Still, there was nothing obliging the developers to sign these contracts – and so none did.

    In October, Vista Tower – where Bichener lives – came under scrutiny. Then-Housing Secretary Simon Clarke set a 21-day deadline for Grey GR, the owner of the building, to commit to fixing it. “The lives of over 100 people living in Vista Tower have been put on hold,” Clarke said. “Enough is enough.” Bichener stressed her building was just one among thousands in need of remediation, but welcomed this as a “step in the right direction.”

    But when that deadline came, Clarke was already out of the job. He had been appointed by former UK Prime Minister Liz Truss, but after her six-week premiership came to an end, Clarke was replaced in the subsequent reshuffle. The deadline passed without Grey GR making any commitment.

    Gove was reappointed by new Prime Minister Rishi Sunak as Clarke’s successor in October. In response to questions from CNN, the UK’s Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities (DLUHC) confirmed that the government has started formal proceedings against Grey GR.

    “We are finalizing the legally binding contracts that developers will sign to fix their unsafe buildings, and expect them to do so very soon,” a DLUHC spokesperson said in a statement.

    “I think the ‘who’s paying’ question will drag on for many years. That might be through court cases and tribunals. But I don’t see how it will be resolved.”

    Sophie Bichener

    Grey GR told CNN that it was “absolutely committed to carrying out the remediation works required,” but that they had not started yet due to obstacles in receiving government funds.

    “Issues with gaining access to [the Building Safety Fund], created by Government, have been, and remain, the fundamental roadblock to progress,” Grey GR said in a statement, adding that the security of residents was of the “utmost priority” and that it was taking steps to make buildings safer.

    But, according to Bichener, residents are no safer than they were five years ago. All that has changed is that, legally, they will no longer have to pay tens or hundreds of thousands of pounds to fix their buildings.

    That hasn’t stopped building owners from seeking funds from residents though. “The amount of £208,430.04 is outstanding in connection with [your] property,” read a letter sent to a resident of Vista Tower by the building owner in November. “We would appreciate your remittance within the next seven days.”

    In the meantime, life for the residents of these buildings goes on. Since speaking to CNN, Bichener got married. She and her husband are both paying off their own mortgages until she is able to sell her flat. For years they had been “stressed,” she said, asking “do we tie ourselves together and have these two properties?” But they decided they couldn’t put their lives on pause forever because of her Vista Tower nightmare.

    “I want to have left,” Bichener said of where she wants to be, a year from now. “The dream is that I no longer own that property and I am long gone and I never have to see it or visit it again.

    “But if I’m realistic, I think we’ll be in the same situation. I think the ‘who’s paying’ question will drag on for many years. That might be through court cases and tribunals. But I don’t see how it will be resolved.”

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • Housing slump likely to continue but some see hopeful signs ahead | CNN Business

    Housing slump likely to continue but some see hopeful signs ahead | CNN Business

    [ad_1]

    A version of this story first appeared in CNN Business’ Before the Bell newsletter. Not a subscriber? You can sign up right here.


    New York
    CNN
     — 

    Mortgage rates have ticked down recently, but are still up dramatically from a year ago thanks to the surge in long-term bond yields as the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates.

    While that’s already had a negative impact on the housing market, we’ll get more details this week about how much worse the damage has become.

    A long list of housing data is on tap. On Tuesday the US Census Bureau will report housing starts and building permits figures for November, followed by Friday’s release of new home sales data for the same month. In between that will be the November existing home sales numbers from the National Association of Realtors on Wednesday, as well as weekly data on mortgage rates and applications on Thursday.

    For the past few months, existing and new home sales have been steadily declining because of the spike in rates and the fact that home prices remain stubbornly high for first-time buyers. Housing starts and building permits have been choppier on a month-to-month basis, but those figures are both down from a year ago.

    Still, there are some promising signs that the worst could soon be over. Shares of Lennar

    (LEN)
    , one of the largest homebuilders in the US, rallied after reporting earnings last week. Revenue topped forecasts and the company’s guidance for the number of homes it expected to deliver next year was a little higher than analysts’ estimates as well.

    Lennar investors “may be looking ahead to 2023, perhaps crossing the valley from recession to potential recovery,” according to CFRA Research analyst Kenneth Leon.

    Others in the industry are cautiously optimistic as well.

    According to data from Amherst Group, an investment firm that buys single-family homes to rent out, it’s important to put the recent slide in prices in context.

    Amherst said home prices are still up about 40% from pre-pandemic levels. So even a further drop of about 15% would merely bring them to mid-2021 levels. In other words, this isn’t like the mid-2000s real estate bubble bursting.

    It’s also worth noting that the job market is still strong and wages are growing. What’s more, many consumers still have decent levels of excess savings thanks to pandemic era government stimulus.

    That all amounts to a few good reasons why the housing market could avoid a severe and prolonged slump.

    “The U.S. housing market is still supported by a tight labor market, the lock-in effect of low fixed mortgage rates for existing homeowners, tight mortgage underwriting, low leverage in the mortgage sector, and low housing supply,” said Brandywine fixed-income analyst Tracy Chen in a report this month.

    “We believe we can avoid a severe housing downturn like the one in the Global Financial Crisis,” Chen added.

    Others point out that even though housing sales may remain weak due to high home prices and still elevated mortgage rates, the good news is that most existing homeowners are still paying their monthly mortgage on time.

    Again, that’s a stark contrast from 2008 when many people with subprime loans or borrowers with poor credit histories were unable to keep up with their mortgage payments.

    “Housing is not bringing down the economy. Yes, the housing market has been impacted. But mortgage delinquencies are still low,” said Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management.

    There aren’t a ton of companies reporting their latest earnings this week. But the few that are could give more clues about the financial health of consumers and the state of corporate spending.

    Cereal giant General Mills

    (GIS)
    will release earnings on Tuesday. Analysts are expecting a slight increase in both sales and profit. Consumers may be growing increasingly wary about inflation and the broader economy, but they’re still eating their Wheaties. Shares of General Mills

    (GIS)
    have soared nearly 30% this year.

    Analysts are less optimistic about the outlooks for sneaker king and Dow component Nike

    (NKE)
    , used car retailer CarMax

    (KMX)
    and memory chip maker Micron

    (MU)
    , whose semiconductors are used in devices ranging from cell phones and computers to cars.

    Earnings are expected to decline for these three companies. They won’t be the only leaders of Corporate America to report weak results.

    According to data from FactSet, fourth-quarter earnings for S&P 500 companies are expected to decline 2.8% from a year ago. Analysts have been busy cutting their forecasts too. John Butters, senior earnings analyst at FactSet, noted in a report that fourth-quarter profits were expected to rise 3.7% as recently as September 30.

    Investors are also going to be paying very close attention to what companies say in their earnings reports about their outlooks for 2023. Analysts currently are anticipating earnings growth of 5.3% for 2023. That could be too optimistic… especially if companies start cutting their own forecasts due to worries about the broader economy.

    “Odds of a recession are pretty high,” said Vincent Reinhart, chief economist and macro strategist at Dreyfus & Mellon. “That will have a knock-on effect for corporate earnings. Higher rates and weaker earnings suggest more pain for stocks.”

    Monday: Germany Ifo business climate index

    Tuesday: US housing starts and building permits; China sets loan prime rate; Bank of Japan interest rate decision; earnings from General Mills, Nike, FedEx

    (FDX)
    and Blackberry

    (BB)

    Wednesday: US existing home sales; Germany consumer confidence; earnings from Rite Aid

    (RAD)
    , Carnival

    (CCL)
    , Cintas

    (CTAS)
    , Toro

    (TTC)
    and Micron

    Thursday: US weekly jobless claims; US Q3 GDP (third estimate); earnings from CarMax

    (KMX)
    and Paychex

    Friday: US personal income and spending; US PCE inflation; US new home sales; US durable goods orders; US U. of Michigan consumer sentiment; Japan inflation; UK markets close early

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • The Grinch comes for retailers | CNN Business

    The Grinch comes for retailers | CNN Business

    [ad_1]

    A version of this story first appeared in CNN Business’ Before the Bell newsletter. Not a subscriber? You can sign up right here. You can listen to an audio version of the newsletter by clicking the same link.


    New York
    CNN
     — 

    Weaker-than-expected retail sales in November pummeled market sentiment on Thursday and raised the odds that the Federal Reserve’s inflation-fighting interest rate hikes would push the economy into recession.

    What’s happening: US retail sales, which measure the total amount of money that stores make from selling goods to customers, fell 0.6% in November, the weakest performance in nearly a year. The drop concerned economists who had expected monthly sales to shrink by just 0.1%. It’s also a sharp reversal from October’s sales increase of 1.3%.

    That’s a bad sign for the economy. Just last month Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan told CNN that the continued strength of the US consumer is nearly single-handedly staving off recession. Consumer spending is a major driver of the economy, and the last two months of the year can account for about 20% of total retail sales — even more for some retailers, according to National Retail Federation data.

    Market mania: The weak report means that spending faltered just as the holiday season started, a critical time for retailers to ramp up profits and get rid of excess inventory. Investors weren’t too happy about that.

    Shares of Costco

    (COST)
    closed Thursday 4.1% lower, Target

    (CBDY)
    fell by 3.2%, Macy’s

    (M)
    dropped 3.5% and Abercrombie & Fitch

    (ANF)
    was down 6.2%.

    The entire sector took a blow — the VanEck Retail ETF, with Amazon

    (AMZN)
    , Home Depot

    (HD)
    and Walmart

    (WMT)
    as its top three holdings, fell by 2.2%. The SPDR S&P Retail ETF, which follows all S&P retail stocks, was down 2.9%.

    Weak sales are likely to continue, say analysts, and if they do, then retailers’ bottom lines and fourth-quarter earnings will suffer.

    “The headwinds of the past year are catching up to consumers and forcing them to be more conservative in their holiday shopping this winter,” warned Morgan Stanley economist Ellen Zentner in a note.

    The Fed factor: November’s report could indicate that consumers are feeling the double-punch of sky-high inflation and painful interest rate hikes from the central bank. This retail sales data adds to recessionary concerns, as it suggests that consumers may be becoming more cautious with their spending.

    “Households are increasingly relying on their savings to sustain their spending, and many families are resorting to credit to offset the burden of high prices. These trends are unsustainable, and the current credit splurge is a true risk, especially for families at the lower end of the income spectrum,” said Gregory Daco and Lydia Boussour, economists at EY Parthenon.

    While American bank accounts are still fairly robust, they’re beginning to dwindle. In the third quarter of 2022, credit card balances jumped 15% year over year. That’s the largest annual jump since the New York Fed began keeping track of the data in 2004.

    “Against this backdrop, we expect consumers will rein in their spending further in coming months,” said Daco and Boussour. “Real consumer spending should see modest growth in the final quarter of the year, but we expect it will barely grow in 2023.”

    Bottom line: If Bank of America’s Moynihan was right, the US economy is in trouble.

    US mortgage rates came in lower once again this week, marking the fifth consecutive drop in a row.

    The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.31% in the week ending December 15, down from 6.33% the week before, according to Freddie Mac. A year ago, the 30-year fixed rate was 3.12%, reports my colleague Anna Bahney.

    That’s a sharp reversal from the upward trend in rates we’ve seen for most of 2022. Those increases were spurred by the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented campaign of harsh interest rate hikes to tame soaring inflation. But mortgage rates have tumbled in the last several weeks, following data that showed inflation may have finally reached its peak.

    The Fed announced on Wednesday that it will continue to raise interest rates — albeit by a smaller amount than it has been.

    “Mortgage rates continued their downward trajectory this week, as softer inflation data and a modest shift in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy reverberated through the economy,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist.

    “The good news for the housing market is that recent declines in rates have led to a stabilization in purchase demand,” he added. “The bad news is that demand remains very weak in the face of affordability hurdles that are still quite high.”

    American regulators have been granted unprecedented access to the full audits of Chinese companies like Alibaba

    (BABA)
    and JD.com

    (JD)
    after threatening to kick the tech giants off US stock exchanges if they did not receive the data.

    The announcement marks a major breakthrough in a yearslong standoff over how Chinese companies listed on Wall Street should be regulated. It will come as a huge relief for these firms and investors who have invested billions of dollars in them, reports my colleague Laura He.

    “For the first time in history, we are able to perform full and thorough inspections and investigations to root out potential problems and hold firms accountable to fix them,” Erica Williams, chair of the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board, said in a statement Thursday, adding that such access was “historic and unprecedented.”

    More than 100 Chinese companies had been identified by the US securities regulator as facing delisting in 2024 if they did not hand over the audits of their financial statements.

    On Friday, China’s securities regulator said it’s looking forward to working with US officials to continue promoting future audit supervision of companies listed in the United States.

    There are more than 260 Chinese companies listed on US stock exchanges, with a combined market capitalization of more than $770 billion, according to recent calculations posted by the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission.

    [ad_2]

    Source link