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Tag: iab-housing market

  • US new home sales surged in September | CNN Business

    US new home sales surged in September | CNN Business

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    Washington, DC
    CNN
     — 

    New home sales in the United States surged higher in September from the month before, even as mortgage rates remained over 7%, making financing a home costlier and pushing people out of the market.

    Sales of newly constructed homes jumped 12.3% in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 759,000, from a revised rate of 676,000 in August, according to a joint report from the US Department of Housing and Urban Development and the Census Bureau. Sales were up 33.9% from a year ago.

    This represents the fastest pace of sales since February 2022 and easily exceeds analysts’ expectations of a sales pace of 680,000.

    Sales of existing homes have been trending down since February and are down 20% year to date in September from a year ago. There is an ongoing inventory and affordability crunch that has homeowners with mortgage rates of 3% or 4% reluctant to sell and buy another home at a much higher rate. In August, rates topped 7% and have lingered there as the Federal Reserve continues to address inflation.

    The average rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage was 7.63% last week, according to Freddie Mac, and there are indications it could continue to climb.

    “With one more Fed interest rate hike expected for the year, interest rates are not anticipated to drop any time soon,” said Kelly Mangold of RCLCO Real Estate Consulting.

    New construction has been an appealing alternative, attracting determined buyers frustrated by the historically low supply of existing homes. Still, affordability concerns remain.

    “The constraints in the housing market have created a significant amount of pent-up demand, as more and more households are living in homes they may have outgrown and are deciding to buy despite current market conditions,” said Mangold.

    According to the report, new home sales activity increased the most in the south, “a region that continues to outperform due to availability of land, population and job growth, and a relatively lower cost of living,” said Mangold.

    While new home sales are a much smaller share of the overall sales market than existing home sales, the inventory picture is rosier for new construction homes.

    The seasonally adjusted estimate of new homes for sale at the end of September was 435,000. This represents a supply of 6.9 months at the current sales pace.

    By comparison, there were 1.13 million existing homes for sale at the end of September, or the equivalent of 3.4 months’ supply at the current monthly sales pace.

    Typically, the ratio of existing homes to new homes has been closer to 5 to 1, but lately it has been closer to 2 to 1, according to the National Association of Realtors.

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  • Pressure to fill House speaker vacancy builds amid crisis in Israel | CNN Politics

    Pressure to fill House speaker vacancy builds amid crisis in Israel | CNN Politics

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    CNN
     — 

    The House speakership drama enters a new week under increased urgency as Israel declared war Sunday following unprecedented surprise attacks by Hamas.

    Kevin McCarthy’s unprecedented ouster as speaker leaves the House iin uncharted legal territory regarding what it can do under acting Speaker Patrick McHenry. When Congress reconvenes Monday, lawmakers will be under pressure to elect a new speaker swiftly amid the crisis in Israel, which has prompted calls from within the Republican Party to speed up their timeline given the national security implications of keeping the role vacant.

    As the Biden administration looks to provide additional assistance to Israel, officials were unsure Saturday about what could be accomplished without a sitting speaker. While McHenry is serving as speaker pro tempore, he has little power outside of recessing, adjourning or recognizing speaker nominations, and it’s unclear whether he can participate in intelligence briefings on the crisis in Israel.

    Democratic House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said Sunday that he had conversations with the White House and the National Security Council on Saturday, but he has not yet met with the Gang of Eight – which typically includes the top leaders and heads of the intelligence committees in both parties and both chambers.

    “I do anticipate that we’ll have the opportunity to have a secure briefing at some point next week,” Jeffries told CNN’s Dana Bash on “State of the Union.”

    Jeffries said it is his understanding that the Biden administration can make some decisions regarding aid to Israel without waiting for Congress and urged the administration to do so, adding that he expects “it will provide whatever assistance it can.”

    House Foreign Affairs Chairman Mike McCaul told Bash Sunday that there is currently $3.3 billion in foreign military financing already appropriated that the president can use.

    The Texas Republican also called McCarthy’s ouster “dangerous.”

    “I look at the world and all of the threats that are out there and what kind of message are we sending to adversaries when we can’t govern, when we are dysfunctional, when we don’t even have a speaker of the House?” McCaul said on “State of the Union.”

    McCarthy on Saturday slammed his Republican colleagues for removing him from office last week, and stressed the impact of a speakerless House on national security. “Why would you ever remove a speaker during a term to raise doubt around the world?” McCarthy asked in a Fox News interview.

    McCarthy announced shortly after his ouster that he would not seek the speakership again, making room for House Majority Leader Steve Scalise of Louisiana and Ohio Rep. Jim Jordan to launch their bids for the seat. Former President Donald Trump has thrown his support behind Jordan. Oklahoma Rep. Kevin Hern announced Saturday that he had decided not to run, saying “I believe a three-man race for Speaker will create even more division and make it harder to elect a Speaker.”

    House Republicans are scheduled to hold a candidate forum on Tuesday and an internal election on Wednesday. But it’s unclear when the floor vote will happen, and the timeline is contingent on whether moderate GOP lawmakers can rally around Scalise or Jordan, who are among the hardliners of the party.

    “We have to get a speaker elected this week so we can get things on the floor like replenishing the Iron Dome,” McCaul told Bash on Sunday – referring to Israel’s rocket defense system, which was developed with help from the United States. He added that the House should look to pass a resolution condemning Hamas “by unanimous consent whether or not we have a speaker in place because I think we cannot wait. We have to get that message out as soon as possible.”

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  • Why you should care about the global rout in government bonds | CNN Business

    Why you should care about the global rout in government bonds | CNN Business

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    London
    CNN
     — 

    A slump in government bonds around the world has pushed up the cost of some nations’ debt to levels not seen in more than a decade. That’s bad news for governments in the red but also for the wallets of millions of mortgage borrowers, stock investors and businesses.

    The sell-off has been fueled by expectations among investors that the world’s major central banks will keep interest rates “higher for longer” to bring inflation down to their targets.

    It works like this: Governments looking to raise cash for public services and investments issue bonds. A bond provides a way to borrow money from investors for a set length of time, with the obligation to make regular interest payments.

    When official interest rates rise, so do investors’ expectations for returns on bonds, known as yields. This creates an incentive for investors to sell the bonds they currently hold and buy newly issued ones that offer higher interest payments. Selling bonds reduces prices. So, in short, when yields rise, bond prices fall.

    And yields have most definitely been rising: The yield on 30-year US government bonds, also known as Treasuries, hit 5% on Tuesday for the first time since 2007. In the United Kingdom, the yield on 30-year bonds also reached 5% this week, the highest level in more than two decades.

    Yields on German long-dated bonds are back to levels last seen on the eve of the eurozone debt crisis in 2011. Yields on Italy’s 10-year bonds hit 5% on Wednesday, the highest level since 2012, when that crisis was in full swing.

    Here’s why you should care.

    The yields on local government bonds are usually used by banks to price mortgages.

    The disastrous “mini” budget unveiled by former UK Prime Minister Liz Truss in September last year provided a stark illustration of that relationship. Her plan to borrow tens of billions of pounds to fund tax cuts spooked bond investors who feared that the country’s finances were on an unsustainable path.

    The resulting sell-off in UK government bonds — called “gilts” — caused yields to shoot up, taking mortgage costs higher with them.

    The average interest on a two-year fixed-rate mortgage soared to 6.47% at the start of November 2022, according to data from product comparison website Moneyfacts, the highest level since the depths of the global financial crisis in August 2008.

    Early morning sun illuminates streets of residential terraced houses, on September 17, 2023 in Bath, England. Soaring interest rates and falling prices has meant the end of the UK's 13-year housing market boom potentially leading to a wider house price crash.

    That meant hundreds of pounds more a month in mortgage payments. Before higher mortgage rates kicked in, some panicked homeowners rushed to refinance their fixed-rate loans earlier than planned, accepting a financial penalty for doing so.

    Mortgage rates had been falling back since the drama last fall but are now back to 6.47%, this month’s data from Moneyfacts shows.

    In the United States, mortgage rates tend to track the yield on 10-year Treasuries, and that yield has risen 0.27 percentage points since late September.

    On Thursday, government-backed mortgage provider Freddie Mac announced that the average interest on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage had hit 7.31% in the week ending September 28 — its highest level since 2000.

    “Higher mortgage rates create a standoff between potential buyers, who face some of the highest borrowing rates since 2000, and sellers, who may already enjoy a low fixed-rate mortgage and thus are less incentivized to sell,” Andrew Sheets, global head of corporate credit research at Morgan Stanley, told CNN.

    Surging government bond yields are probably coming for your stock portfolios too.

    Shares typically lose value when the yields on government debt rise, as investors can now get high returns — and a steady income — from less risky assets.

    Take the yield on 10-year Treasuries: at 4.78%, it is more than twice as high as the average yearly dividend paid out by the companies making up the S&P 500 index (SPX).

    “The higher the gilt yield goes, the less inclined, or obliged, investors will feel to take risk and pay up for other asset classes, such as shares,” Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, told CNN.

    Stock indexes have tumbled on both sides of the Atlantic in recent weeks. The S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (NDX) have shed 4% and 2.3% respectively since the Federal Reserve said late last month that it could hike rates once more this year and expected to make fewer rate cuts in 2024.

    The STOXX Europe 600 has sunk 4.5% and London’s FTSE 100 4.3% in that time.

    “Income is back,” analysts at BlackRock, the world’s biggest asset manager, wrote in a note Monday, recommending investments in short-dates US Treasuries.

    Stocks have also taken a hit in recent weeks as rising oil prices, an ailing Chinese economy and the prospect of another government shutdown in the United Stated have unnerved investors.

    High official interest rates in America and Europe have also raised the cost of borrowing for businesses.

    “Higher interest rates make borrowing less attractive, and we’ve already seen a sharp slowing of bank lending that we think is consistent with this idea,” said Sheets at Morgan Stanley.

    “It’s important to note that slower credit growth, which generally means a cooler economy, is precisely what the Federal Reserve is trying to achieve through its large recent rate hikes,” he added.

    Higher yields also mean that the government must pay more to service its debt — with less money available to spend elsewhere.

    The US government is currently sitting on a $33 trillion debt pile and is expected to incur more than $1 trillion in average annual interest costs over the next decade.

    In March, when gilt yields were much lower than now, the UK’s public spending watchdog said it expected the annual interest paid on the government’s pile of debt to peak at £115 billion ($140 billion) this year. That’s almost three times as much as the UK government plans to spend in 2023 on a key benefit for children and people with disabilities.

    Rising bond yields mean that “for any given level of borrowing, more must be spent on debt interest, leaving less scope to finance other priorities,” the Office for Budget Responsibility said in its March forecast.

    Higher gilt yields give politicians “less wiggle room to ease [the] cost-of-living pain through tax cuts or public sector pay offers,” Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, wrote in a note Wednesday.

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  • The fate of this consumer watchdog is in the hands of the Supreme Court | CNN Business

    The fate of this consumer watchdog is in the hands of the Supreme Court | CNN Business

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    New York
    CNN
     — 

    On Tuesday, the Supreme Court began hearing oral arguments in a case that will determine the fate of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

    The case was brought on by the Community Financial Services Association of America, a trade group representing payday lenders.

    The group scored a victory last year in a case it brought before the US Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit, in New Orleans. The three-judge panel ruled the CFPB’s funding violates the Constitution’s Appropriations Clause and separation of powers. The Supreme Court will have the final say on that, however.

    The consumer watchdog agency was created after the 2008 financial crisis by way of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act. The agency was the brainchild of Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren. She began advocating for it in 2007 when she was a Harvard Law School professor.

    The broad purpose of the CFPB is to protect consumers from financial abuses and to serve as the central agency for consumer financial protection authorities.

    Prior to the CFPB’s formation, “[c]onsumer financial protection had not been the primary focus of any federal agency, and no agency had effective tools to set the rules for and oversee the whole market,” the agency said on its site.

    The CFPB is funded by the Federal Reserve in an effort to keep the agency independent from political pressure. It also means that the agency doesn’t depend on Congressional appropriations funds.

    While there are critics of the agency’s current structure and funding, it has saved consumers money, made it easier for them to seek redress and to get better clarity and more tailored responses from companies when they have a problem with their accounts, loans or credit reports.

    “Today virtually all financial transactions for residential real estate in the United States depend upon compliance with the CFPB’s rules, and consumers rely on the rights and protections provided by those rules,” the Mortgage Bankers Association, the National Association of Homebuilders and the National Association of Realtors said in an amicus brief to the Supreme Court.

    For instance, the CFPB recently ordered Bank of America to pay $100 million to customers and $90 million in penalties saying that the nation’s second-largest bank harmed consumers by double-dipping on fees, withholding credit card rewards and opening fake accounts.

    The CFPB also took action against Wells Fargo after the agency found the bank had been engaging in multiple abusive and unlawful consumer practices across several financial products between 2011 and 2022 — from auto loans to mortgage loans to bank accounts.

    The agency ordered the bank to pay a $1.7 billion civil penalty in addition to more than $2 billion to compensate consumers.

    The Supreme Court’s decision, which likely won’t be announced until the spring of 2024, has far-reaching implications.

    If the Supreme Court finds the CFPB’s funding structure unconstitutional, it could shutter the agency and invalidate all of its prior rulings.

    “Without those rules substantial uncertainty would arise as to how to undertake mortgage transactions in accordance with federal law,” the associations said in their joint brief. “The housing market could descend into chaos, to the detriment of all mortgage borrowers,” they added.

    It could also call into question the constitutionality of other government agencies like the Federal Reserve and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation that also aren’t funded by Congressional appropriations.

    “We are confident in the constitutionality of the statute that created the CFPB within the Federal Reserve System and provides its funding,” Sam Gilford, a spokesperson for the CFPB, told CNN in a statement. “We will continue to carry out the vital work Congress has charged us to perform.”

    There’s also a way for the Supreme Court to change the CFPB’s funding structure in a way that wouldn’t invalidate prior rulings, said Joseph Lynyak III, a partner at the law firm of Dorsey & Whitney and a regulatory reform expert.

    “This result would be far more probable rather than voiding the last decade of the CFPB’s activity,” he added.

    From listening to the case on Tuesday, though, Lynyak believes the Supreme Court will rule that the CFPB’s funding structure is constitutional.

    “As we have argued from the outset, the CFPB’s unique funding mechanism lacks any contemporary or historical precedent,” said Noel Francisco, a lawyer arguing on behalf of those challenging the constitutionality of the CFPB’s funding structure.

    He added that it “improperly shields the agency from congressional oversight and accountability, and unconstitutionally strips Congress of its power of the purse under the Appropriations Clause of the Constitution.

    But both Republican and Democratic-appointed justices told Francisco on Tuesday they could not understand the crux of his argument.

    “I’m at a total loss,” said Justice Sonia Sotomayor. Echoing her remarks, Justice Amy Coney Barrett said, “we’re all struggling to figure out what’s the standard that you would use.”

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  • US mortgage rates climb to 7.31%, hitting their highest level in nearly 23 years | CNN Business

    US mortgage rates climb to 7.31%, hitting their highest level in nearly 23 years | CNN Business

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    Washington, DC
    CNN
     — 

    US mortgage rates surged to their highest level in nearly 23 years this week as inflation pressures persisted.

    The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 7.31% in the week ending September 28, up from 7.19% the week before, according to data from Freddie Mac released Thursday. A year ago, the 30-year fixed-rate was 6.70%.

    “The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has hit the highest level since the year 2000,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, in a statement. “However, unlike the turn of the millennium, house prices today are rising alongside mortgage rates, primarily due to low inventory. These headwinds are causing both buyers and sellers to hold out for better circumstances.”

    The average mortgage rate is based on mortgage applications that Freddie Mac receives from thousands of lenders across the country. The survey includes only borrowers who put 20% down and have excellent credit.

    Mortgage rates have spiked during the Federal Reserve’s historic inflation-curbing campaign — and while a good deal of progress has been made since June 2022, when inflation hit 9.1%, Fed officials say there is still a ways to go.

    The Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures index, is currently 4.2%, which is more than double the Fed’s target of 2%. Economists expect it to drop to 3.9% when the latest reading is released on Friday.

    This week’s mortgage rate surge followed last week’s small move higher, as investors settled in for “higher-for-longer” interest rates after last week’s Fed policy meeting, said Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com.

    Hale said the takeaway from the meeting was that the upward adjustments from the Fed haven’t ended.

    “Revised economic projections show that another rate hike this year is definitely on the table, and the expected policy rate in 2024 and 2025 was also higher than previously forecast,” she said. “Market participants are still playing catchup.”

    While the Fed does not set the interest rates that borrowers pay on mortgages directly, its actions influence them.

    Mortgage rates tend to track the yield on 10-year US Treasuries, which move based on a combination of anticipation about the Fed’s actions, what the Fed actually does and investors’ reactions. When Treasury yields go up, so do mortgage rates; when they go down, mortgage rates tend to follow.

    The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose from 4.3% on September 20 to 4.6% as of September 27.

    Mortgage applications continued to drop last week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, as mortgage rates went higher.

    “Rates over 7% and low for-sale inventory continue to create affordability challenges for prospective buyers,” said Bob Broeksmit, MBA president and CEO. “Until rates start to come back down, we anticipate housing market activity will remain slow.”

    Markets are experiencing an extraordinarily low number of homes for sale as homeowners stay put with ultra-low mortgage rates that are several percentage points lower than the current rate.

    There has been a small uptick in newly listed homes coming to market over the past few weeks, according to Realtor.com, which is seasonally atypical, said Hale.

    The first week in October tends to be an ideal week to buy a home, she said, since home prices tend to fall relative to summer highs, and fewer buyers contend for homes. Yet housing inventory remains higher than a typical week, Hale said.

    But, she added, mortgage rates will continue to be a wild card, which could make it impossible for some buyers to get in the market now.

    Even as demand is dropping, with so few homeowners selling, the market is pushing up prices as those few buyers who remain tussle over the handful of available houses, Hale said.

    This combination of higher prices and higher mortgage rates contrasts with easing rents over the past few months. This may cause would-be first-time buyers to wait for home prices and mortgage rates to stabilize and rent instead.

    “Buying a starter home is more expensive than renting in all but three major US markets [Realtor.com] studied,” said Hale, “which explains why buyer demand is likely to remain relatively low.”

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  • Dow tumbles by more than 400 points, on pace for biggest one-day decline since March | CNN Business

    Dow tumbles by more than 400 points, on pace for biggest one-day decline since March | CNN Business

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    New York
    CNN
     — 

    Stocks tumbled Tuesday after a slew of economic data stoked fears about the US economy’s cloudy outlook and further interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve.

    The benchmark S&P 500 index slid 1.2%, on track for its lowest close since June. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 416 points, or 1.2%, on pace for its biggest one-day drop since March; and the Nasdaq Composite lost 1.5%.

    The S&P 500 is hovering around the threshold that it passed to enter bull market territory earlier this summer, which represents a climb of more than 20% off its most recent low last October.

    Housing data released Tuesday morning showed that new home sales fell 8.7% in August from July, as mortgage rates edged above 7% to the highest levels in decades.

    At the same time, US home prices climbed to a record high in July, marking the sixth straight month of increases as a tight supply of homes continues to drive up prices, according to the latest Case-Shiller home prices index.

    “The Fed will see the reacceleration of house prices as a reason to keep interest rates higher for longer,” said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank. “The Fed cannot afford to look past house prices’ influence on the cost of living.”

    Investors have been on edge since the Fed last week indicated it could hike interest rates once more this year and delay rate cuts for longer than expected. That sent yields soaring to their highest level in decades, as investors recalibrate their expectations for how long rates will stay higher.

    Oil prices gained on Tuesday after paring back their recent gains earlier. West Texas Intermediate crude futures, the US benchmark, rose to roughly $90 a barrel. Brent crude, the international benchmark, climbed to $94 a barrel.

    JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Tuesday in an interview with the Times of India that he is preparing the bank’s clients for a 7% interest rate scenario, further spooking investors.

    The possibility of a government shutdown also looms over Wall Street as the fiscal year’s end on September 30 fast approaches without any spending deal.

    Moody’s warned Monday that such an event could be negative for America’s credit rating, which already saw a downgrade from Fitch earlier this year after the federal government narrowly avoided breaching the debt ceiling.

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  • More remote workers are willing to move in order to find affordable housing | CNN Business

    More remote workers are willing to move in order to find affordable housing | CNN Business

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    Washington, DC
    CNN
     — 

    Housing is less affordable than it has been in about four decades. But buying or renting a home might be even less affordable now if it weren’t for the continuing impact of remote and hybrid workers that resulted from the pandemic, according to a recent study by Fannie Mae.

    The study, which was an analysis of Fannie Mae’s monthly National Housing Survey, with questions asked among more than 3,000 mortgage holders, owners, and renters between January and March this year, looked at how remote and hybrid work has changed over the past few years and its impact on housing.

    More people are willing to move to less expensive areas further away from offices in city centers than a few years ago, according to the report. Continuing remote and hybrid work, at levels remarkably unchanged from two years ago, is enabling people to move toward housing affordability, the study found.

    The report also revealed that “affordability” is the most important factor in finding a place to live, both for renters and homeowners.

    At the beginning of the year, 22% of remote and hybrid workers said they would be willing to relocate to a different region or increase their commute. Only 14% such workers were willing to do so in the third quarter of 2021, which is used as a comparison throughout the study and was when many workplaces attempted a “return to work” until the Omicron variant of Covid-19 pushed many employers’ plans back that winter.

    Workers who are able to break their ties to living in an area because of its proximity to work are able to spread out, reducing the competition for a historically low number of homes for sale that could push prices even higher.

    The research showed that among remote workers, all age and income groups have grown more willing to relocate or live farther away from their workplace since 2021. But younger workers — those between 18 and 34 — are significantly more willing than those older than them to live or commute a further distance from their work, with the share willing to do so jumping from 18% in 2021, to 30% in 2023.

    “We believe this greater willingness to live farther from the … workplace may be an indication that some workers are feeling more secure about their remote work situation … or their ability to find another job if their current employer were to change its policies,” wrote the researchers, in a summary.

    This is good news for remote workers during a time of crushingly low levels of home affordability.

    Remote and hybrid work may be here to stay. Or, it’s here long enough for people to buy or rent a new home because of it, the researchers found.

    Despite the demands by leaders of some prominent companies that workers need to head into the office or head out the door, the share of fully remote and hybrid workers has remained surprisingly constant in the post-pandemic era, according to the study.

    In the first part of the year, 35% of respondents worked fully remote or worked a hybrid mix of some time at a workplace and some time at home. That was only slightly down from 36% in 2021.

    While the share of workers going to a work site or office every day was unchanged at 49% in both 2021 and in 2023, the share of people working fully remote ticked up to 14% this year from 13% in 2021.

    Homeowners continue to be slightly more likely to work from home than renters. And those with more education and higher incomes are also more likely to have a work-from-home situation, which is consistent with 2021, the study found.

    Only 30% of lower-income people, earning 80% of the area median income, could work remotely or hybrid in 2021, and that dropped to 27% by this year. Meanwhile 42% of upper-income people, those making 120% of the area median income, were able to work from home in 2021 and that number did not change in 2023.

    Lower-income people — who are in most need of access to lower-cost housing, found further away from a city’s core — are also those least likely to work remotely, according to the survey.

    With housing affordability taking a hit over the past few years as rents rose, home prices stayed elevated and mortgage rates soared to a 22-year high, it is not surprising that “affordability” was the top factor for people when picking a new home, at 36%. This was a big jump from 2014, the last time the question was asked, when the top consideration was “neighborhood” at 49%.

    Homeowners and renters both showed growth in prioritizing “affordability,” but the increase was greatest among renters, shooting up from 21% in 2014 to 46% in 2023.

    “The change in preference for renters is truly remarkable, since not only did it more than double, but it represented a complete reversal of the relative importance of neighborhood cited by consumers as the top consideration in 2014,” wrote the researchers.

    In addition, despite the talk about moving for more space, “home size” as a factor for picking a next home was unchanged and still outweighed by “affordability.”

    “The striking shift toward affordability as the top consideration among overall survey respondents for their next move substantiates the need of households to find ways to manage around the significant rise in mortgage rates, home prices, and rents of the past few years,” the researchers wrote.

    And this is impacting where people look for a home and what they prioritize when they are searching.

    “Home affordability may also be a reason why we saw an increase in remote workers’ willingness to relocate or live farther away from their workplace, particularly given that, historically, a shorter commute to denser job markets was considered a premium amenity,” the researchers wrote.

    The suburbs are increasingly where people want to be, the report found, which is part of an ongoing trend since 2010. And that share has grown between 2021 and 2023.

    The researchers say the change to the housing market brought about by remote workers holds broader implications for the link between housing and the labor market.

    The growing share of remote-working renters and homeowners willing to live farther from their work location gives employers access to a wider labor market, which could be useful if a downturn in economic activity led to greater rates of job loss.

    “Having access to a larger labor market may also reduce the adverse effect on local home prices when a major employer or industry contracts,” the researchers wrote.

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  • China relaxes mortgage rules to help homebuyers in latest stimulus push | CNN Business

    China relaxes mortgage rules to help homebuyers in latest stimulus push | CNN Business

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    Hong Kong
    CNN
     — 

    China just made it easier for people to buy homes, in a move that could affect $3.5 trillion in mortgage loans as Beijing seeks to bail out a property market mired in a record slump and worsening cash crunch.

    Down payments will be set at a minimum of 20% for first-time buyers and a minimum of 30% for second-time buyers nationwide, according to a joint statement by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) and the National Administration of Financial Regulation (NAFR) released late Thursday.

    That’s a big cut from the existing requirements of minimums of 30% and 40% for first-time and second-time buyers in cities that implement home-buying restrictions, such as Beijing and Shanghai.

    In addition, minimum mortgage rates for buyers of second homes should be no less than 20 basis points over the loan prime rate (LPR), the statement said. Currently, minimum mortgage rates for second-time buyers are no less than 60 basis points over the LPR.

    The LPR is the benchmark for most household and corporate loans in China and is set by the central bank each month.

    The regulators also indicated in a separate statement that rates on existing mortgages for first-home purchases can be renegotiated between banks and customers starting September 25. The regulators have encouraged banks to offer lower rates.

    “The drop in the interest rates of existing housing loans can save interest expenses for borrowers, which is conducive to expanding consumption and investment,” the regulators said.

    “For banks, it can effectively reduce the phenomenon of early loan repayment and mitigate the impact on banks’ interest income,” they added.

    The new policy measures could affect 40 million home buyers and impact 25 trillion yuan ($3.5 trillion) in mortgages, which is about two thirds of the country’s housing loans, state-owned Yicai reported on Thursday, citing people close to the regulators.

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  • Mortgage rates rise to just short of 7% | CNN Business

    Mortgage rates rise to just short of 7% | CNN Business

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    Washington, DC
    CNN
     — 

    US mortgage rates remained elevated this week, rising for the third week in a row, but stayed just under the market’s 7% threshold.

    The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.96% in the week ending August 10, up from 6.90% the week before, according to data from Freddie Mac released Thursday. A year ago, the 30-year fixed-rate was 5.22%.

    “There is no doubt continued high rates will prolong affordability challenges longer than expected,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “However, upward pressure on rates is the product of a resilient economy with low unemployment and strong wage growth, which historically has kept purchase demand solid.”

    The average mortgage rate is based on mortgage applications that Freddie Mac receives from thousands of lenders across the country. The survey includes only borrowers who put 20% down and have excellent credit.

    The rate stayed elevated this week after the Federal Reserve highlighted its reliance on data on jobs and inflation in its July monetary policy meeting and in recent comments.

    Markets had been waiting for July’s inflation report, released Thursday morning, which showed consumer price hikes rose 3.2% annually, the first increase in 12 months. The data also showed that shelter costs contributed 90% of total inflation last month.

    “July’s Consumer Price Index holds significant importance for the Fed’s upcoming decisions,” said Jiayi Xu, an economist at Realtor.com.

    Since inflation rose, it could support the Fed’s concern that the battle is not over, Xu said. The Fed also will consider the forthcoming August employment and inflation data prior to the next policy meeting, in September.

    In addition, the most recent jobs report offered some mixed signals about the labor market, Xu said, including a smaller number of net new jobs added and a dipping unemployment rate.

    “While July’s jobs report itself is very unlikely to have a direct impact on the Fed’s upcoming decision, the decline to a 3.5% unemployment rate may imply that more significant slowing is needed to align with the Fed’s projected year-end rate of 4.1%,” she said.

    This story is developing and will be updated.

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  • Plunging sales of new homes show China’s real estate crisis isn’t over | CNN Business

    Plunging sales of new homes show China’s real estate crisis isn’t over | CNN Business

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    Hong Kong
    CNN
     — 

    Plunging sales of new homes and the reported cancellation of a share placement by China’s biggest property developer on Tuesday underscored the depth of the country’s real estate crisis.

    Reports that Country Garden had abruptly pulled an attempt to raise $300 million by issuing new shares in Hong Kong coincided with the release of data late Monday showing new home sales by China’s 100 biggest developers dropped by 33% in July from a year ago.

    “No definitive agreement has been entered into with respect to the proposed transaction and the company is not considering the proposed transaction at this stage,” Country Garden said in a statement. Its shares fell as much as 11% on the Hong Kong stock exchange. They were last down 7%.

    The drop in new home sales in China is the steepest monthly decline since July 2022. For the first seven months of this year, new home sales by the 100 developers fell 4.7% from a year earlier.

    “Overall, the current market demand and purchasing power are overdrawn, and industry confidence is still at a low level,” the China Real Estate Information Corp. — a leading industry data provider — said in a statement.

    China’s huge property industry was long an important engine of economic growth, accounting for as much as 30% of the country’s GDP. Investors see the revival of the sector as crucial to the recovery of the world’s second largest economy following three years of self-imposed coronavirus pandemic isolation.

    “Recent signals from top policymakers… suggest Beijing is getting increasingly worried about growth and have clearly recognized the need to bolster the faltering property sector,” said Nomura analysts on Monday.

    “They are starting a new round [of] property easing, and may introduce some stimulus to redevelop old districts of large cities.”

    Premier Li Qiang pledged Monday to “adjust and optimize” policies to ensure the healthy and stable development of the property market, according to a readout from a State Council meeting. Cities should roll out measures that meet their own needs, he added, without elaborating on the details.

    Four of the biggest cities in China said they would introduce measures to boost local property markets, also without announcing specific new policies.

    Shanghai’s housing regulator said Monday it would implement the pledges of the top policymakers. Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Beijing also made similar statements over the weekend.

    “So far these steps are still far from enough to stem the downward spiral of the property sector, in our view,” Nomura analysts said, adding that there is no clear policy roadmap to boost the sector at a time of slow growth in household income, weak confidence about the future and a shrinking population.

    Chinese households have grown reluctant to purchase new homes, as the now-defunct Covid curbs, falling home prices and rising unemployment have discouraged would-be buyers.

    A series of major defaults by property giants in 2021 also undermined confidence in the sector and led to many home buyers paying for apartments they never received, sparking protests.

    As a result China’s property industry has been mired in a historic downturn in the past two years.

    New home prices had fallen for 16 straight months through last December. They stabilized earlier this year, but then resumed their decline in June, highlighting the challenges of reviving demand.

    Last month, the People’s Bank of China said it would give developers another 12 months to repay their outstanding loans due this year.

    And late last year Beijing unveiled a 16-point plan to ease a liquidity crisis in the real estate sector. Key measures include allowing banks to extend maturing loans to developers and boosting other funding channels for property firms.

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  • In world’s most expensive property market, homes for the dead can cost more than for the living | CNN

    In world’s most expensive property market, homes for the dead can cost more than for the living | CNN

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    Hong Kong
    CNN
     — 

    Starting at $53,000 for a space not much larger than a shoebox, it is a pricey place to stay, even in a city famed for the world’s most expensive property market.

    But then the ornate white marble interiors of the 12 story Shan Sum tower in Hong Kong are not aimed at your average sort of buyer. They are meant for a more discerning type of customer altogether, one seeking that little something extra: a resting spot for the afterlife.

    This privately run high-rise columbarium, housed in a wavy, fan-shaped building designed by a German architect, is meant to store the cremated remains of 23,000 people. And it doesn’t come cheap.

    In addition to its single urn entry units, niches that can store two urns can go for up to $76,000 (HK$598,000), while family units that can house the ashes of up to eight people reach as much as $430,000 (HK$3.38 million).

    With standard niches measuring about one cubic square foot, it could be argued that a spot in this tower is relatively more costly than the city’s most expensive property for the living – a mansion in the ultra exclusive area of The Peak that in March attracted a bid of US$32,000 per square foot.

    But Shan Sum, which is tucked away in an old industrial district of Kwai Chung is not even Hong Kong’s most expensive place for the dead.

    According to Hong Kong’s Consumer Council, the most expensive niche of all is at a temple-like complex in the northern outskirts of Fanling. That auspicious resting spot goes for $660,000 (HK$5.2 million) – and that figure doesn’t even include the management fees of at least $25,000 (HK$200,000) to cover the upkeep and surcharges.

    Such an investment might still not seem too bad, given the long-term horizon of the afterlife, but private columbariums like Shan Sum are not offering a resting place for eternity. Ashes can be stored there only for the duration of the facility’s private license, which is issued by Hong Kong government. These licenses have a limit of 10 years and can take years of inspections to obtain. Shan Sum’s runs through 2033.

    Even so, at Shan Sum – whose name translates to “benevolent heart” – it’s more than just the urn space you pay for.

    Its architect Ulrich Kirchhoff told CNN there is an accessible rooftop and winding balconies lined with pocket gardens for families visiting their ancestors, while about a fifth of the building’s area is open space.

    The wavy exterior of Shan Sum, a private columbarium tower in the Kwai Chung district of Hong Kong on June 2.

    It has also been designed with aesthetics in mind, with its wavy, high-rise profile intended to mimic traditional Chinese graveyards and their preferred location on mountainsides to attract good Feng Shui.

    There are hints of modernity, too, such as dehumidifiers and air-conditioning systems and even an app through which families pre-book a time slot to bring offerings to deceased ancestors.

    The tower is the brainchild of Margaret Zee, a septuagenarian businesswoman who made her fortune in the jewelry and real estate businesses and now runs a charitable foundation in her name.

    Paying respect to the dead is important in Chinese culture, Zee told CNN, and many people are willing to go all out to honor the tradition.

    “Our loved ones’ last journey is not just so they can cross over to the afterlife, but it’s also for us who are left here on Earth to bid them farewell,” Zee said. “It’s not only to lay them to rest, but to give peace to those they’ve departed from.”

    Zee realized there was a shortage of homes to honor the dead when she struggled to find a place to hold a memorial for and bury her late husband in 2007 and she felt compelled to act.

    Architect Ulrich Kirchhoff at Shan Sum, a private columbarium tower in the Kwai Chung district of Hong Kong on June 2.

    In Hong Kong, the same mismatch of supply and demand that has driven up real estate prices to nosebleed levels also affects columbariums.

    Essentially, in a city home to more than 7 million people and some of the world’s most densely populated neighborhoods, competition for space is heating up – for both the living and the dead.

    While Hong Kong is not a small place – its area of 1,110 square kilometers is about 1.4 times the size of New York City – its mountainous terrain makes much of its land unsuitable for development.

    With space at a premium, property developers have traditionally favored high-rise towers that – not unlike the Shan Sum building – can pack in as many plots as possible. As a consequence, the average home size is just 430 square feet, according to the 2021 census, among the tiniest in the world, even though average home prices are north of a million dollars.

    This squeeze on space continues in the afterlife, exacerbated by Hong Kong’s rapidly aging population. More than one in five Hong Kongers is over 65, according to census data, and that number is projected to jump to more than one in three by 2069.

    Cemeteries in Hong Kong are running out of space.

    Even though more than 90% of Hong Kongers opt for cremation, space to store their remains is running out. This is partly because, rather than scattering the ashes, traditionally minded Chinese prefer a physical place where they can pay respects and give offerings to the dead.

    With the city’s death rate running at about 46,000 per year (roughly double the capacity of Shun Sum) in the past decade urn capacity has at times struggled to keep up.

    There are currently just under 135,000 public niches available in government-run facilities, where a 20-year lease goes for about $300, but competition for these is fierce and in recent years some families have reported waiting years to get a spot.

    The response by the government has been two-fold, boosting the number of public facilities while also approving the licenses of 14 privately-run columbarium operators, including Shan Sum, since 2017.

    The entrance of Shan Sum, a private columbarium tower in the Kwai Chung district of Hong Kong on June 2.

    A spokesperson for the Food and Environmental Hygiene Department told CNN that between 2020 and 2022, around 77,000 urns had been allocated a niche “without the need to wait.” Another four new locations to be completed by 2025 would provide a further 167,000 units.

    “There is a marked improvement in the supply of public niches over the past few years. As of now, the supply of public niches is adequate,” the spokesperson said.

    Still, as with many things in this commercially-minded city, where the median monthly wage is just US$2,400 but there are plenty of billionaires (more than 100, according to Wealth X, a company that tracks high-net-worth individuals), there are options for those eager to splash out on something a little more distinguished.

    And that’s where places like Shan Sum really come in to their own.

    Niche compartments to store urns at Shan Sum, a private columbarium tower in the Kwai Chung district of Hong Kong on June 2.

    At the tower in Kwai Chung different floors are dedicated to different religions to suit a range of death customs, said Pan Tong, Zee’s son and the operational director of the building.

    For instance, he says, there are light and bright airy nooks designed to appeal to Buddhists and a section for followers of Guanyin, the Chinese goddess of mercy, whose image adorns the doors of the small compartments.

    There is even a separate secular floor, where each compartment has a Chinese-style “roof” and double doors decorated with gold coins to symbolize a prosperous afterlife.

    “I really had to imagine myself as someone ‘living’ inside one of these niches, and think about what kind of home I wanted to stay at when I’m gone,” Tong said.

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  • Ohio’s governor wants Norfolk Southern to pay for toxic derailment’s long-term impacts, including lowered home values and potential health issues | CNN

    Ohio’s governor wants Norfolk Southern to pay for toxic derailment’s long-term impacts, including lowered home values and potential health issues | CNN

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    CNN
     — 

    Ohio’s govenor said Friday evening that he wants Norfolk Southern to pay East Palestine residents for the long-term impacts the February 3 toxic train derailment may have caused on the community.

    The rail operator should pay residents selling their house the difference of what their home value used to be in comparison to what it’s worth now, nearly three months since the accident, Gov. Mike DeWine told CNN’s Jake Tapper. Norfolk Southern should also set up a fund specifically for impacts on residents that may arise in the future, including medical issues, that could be connected to the derailment, he added.

    Since the accident, officials have said tests showed the air and municipal water were safe and allowed residents to return to their homes after a brief evacuation order. But those living in East Palestine have for months expressed concerns and frustration about both the economic impacts the crash had on their community and health problems, including rashes and nausea, they worry are linked to the derailment.

    Norfolk Southern has vowed to help East Palestine fully recover and has said it will remain in the community for “as long as it takes.”

    DeWine said Friday he has met with Norfolk Southern CEO Alan Shaw and discussed those issues recently.

    “One of the things that I said to him is, if people sell their house and they do not get what that house was worth before the train wreck, I think you owe them the difference,” DeWine said. “I fully expect them to pay for that.”

    CNN reported on Friday about East Palestine residents who were concerned with their home values, including one woman whose home is just about a mile away from the derailment site and proved to be a “nightmare” to sell in the past few weeks.

    When asked for comment on that report, Norfolk Southern directed CNN to a statement from mid-March: “We are committed to working with the community to provide tailored protection for home sellers if their property loses value due to the impact of the derailment.”

    While the company has said it will work with the community to address concerns about losses in home values, details on the issue have been slow to materialize.

    “Everything we’ve asked (Norfolk Southern) to pay for so far, they’ve paid for,” DeWine said Friday. “And we expect them to continue to do that.”

    The governor said he also told Shaw he expects to see a fund set up “fairly quickly” for residents affected by the derailment, including those who may have health problems connected to the accident in the future.

    “(Residents) need to be reassured,” DeWine said. “I think that’s another thing that we can do to help assure the people in the community that we’re going to do everything and that we’re not going away.”

    Officials are continuing to conduct air, water and soil testing and have worked to set up a full-time clinic in the community in the aftermath to the derailment to address health concerns and to improve “the quality of life in the community,” the governor said.

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  • What the banking crisis means for mortgage rates | CNN Business

    What the banking crisis means for mortgage rates | CNN Business

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    Washington
    CNN
     — 

    Mortgage rates have taken would-be buyers on a ride this year — and it’s only March.

    Generally, home buyers can anticipate mortgage rates to move down through the rest of this year as the banking crisis drags on, which could cool down inflation.

    But there are bound to be some bumps along the way. Here’s why rates have been bouncing around and where they could end up.

    After steadily rising last year as a result of the Federal Reserve’s historic campaign to rein in inflation, the average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage topped out at 7.08% in November, according to Freddie Mac. Then, with economic data suggesting inflation was retreating, the average rate drifted down through January.

    But a raft of robust economic reports in February brought concerns that inflation was not cooling as quickly or as much as many had hoped. As a result, after falling to 6.09%, average mortgage rates climbed back up, rising half a percentage point over the month.

    Then in March banks began collapsing. That sent rates falling again.

    Neither the actions of the Federal Reserve nor the bank failures directly impact mortgage rates. But rates are indirectly impacted by actions that the Fed takes or is expected to take, as well as the health of the broader financial system and any uncertainty that may be percolating.

    On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve announced it would raise interest rates by a quarter point as it attempts to fight stubbornly high inflation while taking into account recent risks to financial stability.

    While the bank failures made the Fed’s work more complicated, analysts have said that, if contained, the banking meltdown may have actually done some work for the Fed, by bringing down prices without raising interest rates. To that point, the Fed suggested on Wednesday that it may be at the end of its rate hike cycle.

    Mortgage rates tend to track the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds, which move based on a combination of anticipation about the Fed’s actions, what the Fed actually does and investors’ reactions. When Treasury yields go up, so do mortgage rates; when they go down, mortgage rates tend to follow.

    Following the Fed’s announcement on Wednesday, bond yields — and the mortgage rates that usually follow them — fell.

    But the relationship between mortgage rates and Treasurys has weakened slightly in recent weeks, said Orphe Divounguy, senior economist at Zillow.

    “The secondary mortgage market may react to speculation that more financial entities may need to sell their long-term investments, like mortgage backed securities, to get more liquidity today,” he said.

    Even as Treasurys decline, he said, tighter credit conditions as a result of bank failures will likely limit any dramatic plunging of mortgage rates.

    “This could restrict mortgage lenders’ access to funding sources, resulting in higher rates than Treasuries would otherwise indicate,” Divounguy said. “For borrowers, lending standards were already quite strict, and tighter conditions may make it more difficult for some home shoppers to secure funding. In turn, for home sellers, the time it takes to sell could increase as buyers hesitate.”

    Inflation is still quite high, but it is slowing and analysts are anticipating a much slower economy over the next few quarters — which should further bring down inflation. This is good for mortgage borrowers, who can expect to see rates retreating through this year, said Mike Fratantoni, Mortgage Bankers Association senior vice president and chief economist.

    “Homebuyers in 2023 have shown themselves to be quite sensitive to any changes in mortgage rates,” Fratantoni said.

    The MBA forecasts that mortgage rates are likely to trend down over the course of this year, with the 30-year fixed rate falling to around 5.3% by the end of the year.

    “The housing market was the first sector to slow as the result of tighter monetary policy and should be the first to benefit as policymakers slow — and ultimately stop — hiking rates,” said Fratantoni.

    In second half of the year, the inflation picture is expected to improve, leading to mortgage rates that are more stable.

    “Expectations for slower economic growth or even a recession should bring inflation down and help mortgage rates decline,” said Divounguy.

    That’s good news for home buyers since it improves affordability, bringing down the cost to finance a home. It also benefits sellers, since it reduces the intensity of an interest-rate lock-in.

    Lower rates could also convince more homeowners to list their home for sale. With the inventory of homes for sale near historic lows, this would add badly needed inventory to an extremely limited pool.

    “Mortgage rates are steering both supply and demand in today’s costly environment,” said Divounguy. “Home sales picked up in January when rates were relatively low, then slacked off as they ramped back up.”

    But with cooling inflation comes a higher risk of job losses, which is typically bad for the housing market.

    “Of course, much uncertainty surrounding the state of inflation and this still-evolving banking turmoil remains,” said Divounguy.

    In his remarks on Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said estimates of how much the recent banking developments could slow the economy amounted to “guesswork, almost, at this point.”

    But regardless of the tack the economy and banking concerns take, their impact will quickly be seen in mortgage rates.

    “Evidence — in either direction — of spillovers into the broader economy or accelerating inflation would likely cause another policy shift, which would materialize in mortgage rates,” said Divounguy.

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  • Norfolk Southern balks at compensating homeowners in East Palestine | CNN Business

    Norfolk Southern balks at compensating homeowners in East Palestine | CNN Business

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    Washington, DC
    CNN
     — 

    Jim Stewart was getting ready to sell his home in East Palestine, Ohio, and retire. Then came the derailment of a Norfolk Southern train on February 3, releasing toxic chemicals into the air and nearby water, and he fears crashing the value of his home.

    He and his wife hoped to put their three-bedroom home on the market this spring, as prices were still high and inventory was low. Alternatively, they talked about his son’s family buying a house that was on the market down the street from Stewart.

    But even though state officials are saying the water is safe to drink, convincing potential homebuyers otherwise is an uphill battle.

    “Since the derailment, I lost all those options,” he said. “Who is going to buy contaminated land? The older people are willing to stay and live it out. The younger bunch, they are smarter. They’re thinking of their families. I wouldn’t want my grandchildren here. We don’t know if the ground is going to be good enough to grow grass. There are too many unknowns.”

    Stewart, 65, recently voiced his fury and sadness about what he lost to Norfolk Southern CEO Alan Shaw on a February 22 Town Hall about the derailment on CNN.

    “You burned me,” he told Shaw. “We were going to sell our house. Our value went phoom,” pointing his hands down.

    Shaw was asked point blank by another resident if Norfolk Southern was ready to buy Stewart’s house, he replied only, “we’re going to do what’s right for this community.” That wasn’t satisfactory for Stewart or many of the other participants at the Town Hall.

    “I lost everything now,” Stewart says he told Shaw.

    Stewart works as a manager at a commercial baking company.

    “I worked hard. I’m still working,” he says he told Shaw.I’m in the 44th year at my job. I wanted to get out. Now I’m just stuck.”

    Stewart fears he lost a tremendous amount of the value of his home, which he bought in 2016 for $85,000.

    The property was worth about $135,000 a month ago, according to an estimate from Zillow. Lack of transactions since then make a current estimate difficult.

    “I’ll never get that. I’ll be lucky to get what I paid for it, if that,” he said of the estimate. In addition, Stewart believes it would cost a lot to do the repairs and tests to ensure the home is safe.

    “At whose expense? That’s the biggest issue right now,” said Stewart. “At whose expense are we going to do things to make sure it’s okay?”

    Stewart isn’t the only one that was angry with Shaw and Norfolk Southern for the railroad’s refusal to offer to compensate the community for the property value that has been destroyed by the derailment.

    At Thursday’s Senate hearing on the crash, Sen. Ed Markey, a Massachusetts Democrat, asked Shaw four different times to commit to compensating homeowners, only to hear Shaw repeatedly reply, “Senator, I’m committed to do what’s right.”

    Markey said that wasn’t an acceptable answer.

    “Will you commit to insuring that these families, these innocent families do no lose their life savings in their homes and small businesses? The right thing to do is to say, ‘Yes we will.’” Markey told Shaw. “These families want to know long term are they just going to be left behind. Once the cameras move on, once the national attention dies down, where will these families be? I think they’re going to be in the crosshairs of the accountants of Norfolk Southern saying ‘We’re not going to pay full compensation.’”

    Paying the homeowners and businesses wouldn’t necessarily be difficult for Norfolk Southern.

    With a population of about 5,000 people, there are roughly 2,600 residential properties in East Palestine according to Attom, a property data provider. The average value of a property there in January of this year, prior to the derailment, was $146,000, according to Attom.

    Taken together, the value of all residential real estate in the town adds up to about $380 million, including single family homes and multi-family properties.

    Those values are only a fraction of the money that Norfolk Southern earns. Last year it reported a record operating income of $4.8 billion, and a net income of $3.3 billion, up about 9% from a year earlier. It had $456 million in cash on hand on its books as of December 31.

    It’s been returning much of that profit to shareholders, repurchasing $3.1 billion in shares last year and spending $1.2 billion on dividends. And it announced a 9% increase in dividends just days before the accident.

    A year ago its board approved a $10 billion share repurchase plan, and it had the authority to buy $7.5 billion of that remaining on the plan as of December 31.

    Asked by Sen. Jeff Merkley, an Oregon Democrat, at Thursday’s hearing, “Will you pledge to no more stock buybacks until a raft of safety measures have been completed to reduce the risk of derailments and crashes in the future,” Shaw again dodged the question by answering only with, “I will commit to continuing to invest in safety.”

    And the company also invests a great deal of money in lobbying, spending $1.8 billion on lobbying in 2022, according to OpenSecrets.org, which tracks lobbying and political contributions expenditures.

    Those lobbying expenses also came under attack by senators at the hearing, especially since Shaw would not commit to supporting the bipartisan bill introduced in the Senate since the derailment to improve railroad safety. Asked if he would support or oppose the legislation, Shaw wouldn’t endorse all of the provisions of the bill, but he responded “we are committed to the legislative intent to make rail safer.”

    A big payout probably isn’t what many in East Palestine are looking for, said Jim Warren, manager and co-owner of Kelly Warren and Associates Real Estate Solutions, in Boardman, which is about 15 miles away from East Palestine. They just want a home that’s safe to live in and to be made whole on its value, he said.

    “The people around here don’t want a lot,” he said. “We don’t chase the flashy items like other places in the world. We want to grow up, raise our kids, make a living, and have a nice place to live, that’s all we want.”

    This area, like the rest of the country, saw the real estate market heat up over the past few years with multiple offers on homes and properties selling over the asking price. But, Warren said, unlike other parts of the country the market stays fairly steady in this part of Ohio.

    “Our area doesn’t move up as much and it doesn’t move down as much,” he said. “We don’t have the big swings.”

    Warren’s firm currently has two listings in the town.

    “That’s no more nor less than usual,” he said. There are only ever about ten properties on the market there, he said.

    But, he added, “if your property is contaminated, that is a concern for yourself and for any buyer.”

    As with any real estate purchase, an appraisal and tests for safety would need to be done for homes in East Palestine. But like Stewart, Warren said it is not yet clear who will pay for the additional tests on water and ground contamination for that peace of mind.

    “For all we know, the county might cover it, or the EPA or Ohio state government. That remains to be seen,” he said.

    Overall, Warren said, he expects homes to continue to be bought and sold in East Palestine.

    “We don’t foresee the market tanking, we foresee steady growth,” he said. “After all the hype is gone, we are still living here. We’re going to have to figure it out because this is our home.”

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  • CFPB: What it does and why its future is in question | CNN Business

    CFPB: What it does and why its future is in question | CNN Business

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    New York
    CNN
     — 

    The US Supreme Court decided this week to hear a case that will consider the constitutionality of funding for the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and, in doing so, test the constraints of US regulators’ power. The case would be heard in the fall, with a decision likely by summer 2024.

    But what is the CFPB? How does its work affect your wallet? And why is its future potentially at risk?

    The agency was created after the 2008 financial meltdown, as part of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act. That law was passed in the wake of the 2007 subprime mortgage crisis and the Great Recession that followed.

    The broad purpose of the CFPB is to protect consumers from financial abuses and to serve as the central agency for consumer financial protection authorities.

    Prior to its creation, as the agency notes on its site, “[c]onsumer financial protection had not been the primary focus of any federal agency, and no agency had effective tools to set the rules for and oversee the whole market.”

    The CFPB has regulatory authority over providers of many types of financial products and services, including credit cards, banking accounts, loan servicing, credit reporting and consumer debt collection.

    It is charged with implementing and enforcing consumer protection laws, making rules and issuing guidance for consumer financial institutions. And it is the place consumers can go to lodge complaints about financial products and services.

    Importantly, Dodd-Frank also gave the agency new authority to determine whether any given consumer financial product or service is unfair, deceptive or abusive and therefore unlawful.

    While there are critics of the agency’s current structure and funding, it has saved consumers money, made it easier for them to seek redress and to get better clarity and more tailored responses from companies when they have a problem with their accounts, loans or credit reports.

    “It has completely changed the consumer financial marketplace. Overall it has had a tremendous impact on making it more fair and transparent,” said Lauren Saunders, associate director of the National Consumer Law Center.

    For instance, the CFPB has taken action against bank overdraft policies. “Arguably, the focus on overdraft practices has led some banks to eliminate or reduce their overdraft fees,” said Christine Hines, legislative director of the National Association of Consumer Advocates.

    And it has gone after institutions for saddling consumers with pointless products, excessive fees and punitive terms.

    Both Hines and Saunders made a special note of CFPB’s actions against Wells Fargo, after the agency found the bank had been engaging in multiple abusive and unlawful consumer practices across several financial products between 2011 and 2022 — from auto loans to mortgage loans to bank accounts.

    Last month, the agency required the bank to pay more than $2 billion to customers who were harmed by such practices, plus a $1.7 billion fine that will go into a relief fund for victims.

    “More than 16 million accounts at Wells Fargo were subject to their illegal practices, including misapplied payments, wrongful foreclosures, and incorrect fees and interest charges,” the agency said in a blog post.

    In the area of mortgages, “CFPB has written rules to implement new protections so that mortgage lenders don’t make loans with tricks and traps that lead people to lose their homes,” Saunders said.

    It also has created other safeguards, including rules on how service providers should communicate with borrowers who want to find alternatives to foreclosure, Hines noted.

    Currently, the agency is in the midst of an effort to curb excessive or “junk” fees on a range of consumer financial products, such as credit card late fees.

    Critics of the CFPB have been trying for years to limit its power and independence, attacking the way the agency is structured and funded. Like federal banking regulators, its funding is not determined by lawmakers in Congress as part of the annual appropriations process. Rather, it gets its money from the Federal Reserve System’s earnings.

    “This nontraditional funding source limits congressional oversight of the agency and is the subject of legal challenges,” according to the Congressional Research Service.

    The latest challenge — arising from a federal appeals court ruling that CFPB’s funding violates the Constitution’s Appropriations Clause and separation of powers — is what the Supreme Court will take up in its October term.

    While it’s impossible to predict how the justices will rule, should they decide to uphold the appeals court ruling, that will put in doubt how the agency will be funded going forward, and whether it can continue to function effectively.

    It’s also unclear whether the agency’s actions and rule-making over the past 11 years would be invalidated, nor what impact it would have on banks and other financial institutions that have set up systems to be in compliance with CFPB rules and safe harbors.

    “The agency would be unable to do anything if the funding is invalidated. And prior rules could be challenged as the agency did not have a legal funding source that it could use to write those rules,” Cowen Washington Research Group analyst Jaret Seiberg said in a note to clients.

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  • UK house prices post sharpest fall since 2012 as high mortgage rates hurt | CNN Business

    UK house prices post sharpest fall since 2012 as high mortgage rates hurt | CNN Business

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    London
    CNN
     — 

    UK house prices last month saw their biggest annual decline since November 2012, in the latest indication of the lasting pain that former Prime Minister Liz Truss’s ill-fated “mini” budget inflicted on Britain’s property market.

    The average price of a house fell 1.1% to £257,406 ($310,000) in February compared with a year earlier, taking UK house price growth into negative territory for the first time since June 2020, lender Nationwide said Wednesday.

    House prices have now declined for six months in a row and are 3.7% below their August 2022 peak, according to Nationwide’s index based on purchases involving a mortgage.

    “The recent run of weak house price data began with the financial market turbulence in response to the mini budget at the end of September last year,” Nationwide’s chief economist Robert Gardner said in a statement.

    “While financial market conditions normalized some time ago, housing market activity has remained subdued,” reflecting “the lingering impact on confidence, as well as the cumulative impact of the financial pressures that have been weighing on households for some time,” he added.

    The “mini” budget unveiled in September by Truss and then-finance minister Kwasi Kwarteng collapsed UK bond prices, sent borrowing costs soaring and sparked chaos in the mortgage market, as lenders withdrew hundreds of products, and deals fell through.

    “The economy has largely moved on from the mini budget, but the hangover for the UK housing market is more prolonged. We’re still seeing the effects of higher mortgage rates in the last three months of last year,” said Tom Bill, head of UK residential research at broker Knight Frank.

    Surging food and energy costs alongside feeble pay growth have also taken a bite out of household budgets, weighing on consumer confidence and housing market activity.

    “Inflation has continued to outpace wage growth, and mortgage rates remain significantly higher than the lows recorded in 2021,” said Gardner at Nationwide. “Even though consumer sentiment has improved in recent months, it is still languishing at levels prevailing during the depths of the financial crisis.”

    According to Bill, activity since Christmas has been “solid” but prices still have further to fall. He expects a decline of 5% this year.

    “House prices are 20% higher than they were before the pandemic and we expect around half of this to unwind over the next two years as buyers revise down their budgets,” Bill said.

    Mortgage rates have started to fall but recent stronger-than-expected UK economic data could lead the Bank of England to keep interest rates higher for longer, causing the downward drift in mortgage rates to “stall,” he told CNN. “That’s something we’re keeping an eye on.”

    — This is a developing story and will be updated.

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  • Pending home sales blew past expectations last month as buyers pounced on lower rates | CNN Business

    Pending home sales blew past expectations last month as buyers pounced on lower rates | CNN Business

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    Washington, DC
    CNN
     — 

    Pending home sales crushed expectations in January, when mortgage rates dropped from recent highs of more than 7% and home buyers jumped at the opportunity.

    According to data released Monday from the National Association of Realtors, it was the largest monthly sales increase since June 2020.

    The pending sales index, based on signed contracts to buy a home rather than the final sales that are accounted for in existing home sales, rose by 8.1% from December to January, beating economists’ predictions for a rise of 1%. January’s jump followed a downwardly revised 1.1% rise in December.

    “Buyers responded to better affordability from falling mortgage rates in December and January,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at NAR.

    But since then, mortgage rates have risen again, climbing almost half a percentage point since the beginning of February, according to Freddie Mac.

    “Mortgage rates took a breath in December and January before resuming their climb in February, reaching 6.5%, the highest level of the new year,” said Hannah Jones, an economic data analyst at Realtor.com.

    At the current mortgage rate, the monthly payment on a median-priced home is about 45% higher — or $630 more — than it was at the same time last year, she said. “Many buyers are still holding off, waiting to see if prices or rates give a bit before getting into the market.”

    Last year’s persistent increase in both mortgage rates and home prices pushed many would-be home purchasers out of the market, said Jones. This resulted in a slowing of new homes in the building pipeline and fewer sellers listing their homes, which limited options for buyers still in the market.

    “New listings were at the lowest level in the last six years in January as sellers stayed on the sidelines, waiting to see buyers return, before placing their homes for sale,” said Jones. “However, the first month of the year brought glimmers of hope as year-over-year declines in both existing and new home sales slowed, and buyer sentiment improved slightly.”

    While home sales were down by 24.1% from the still-hot market of a year ago, activity appears to be bottoming out in the first quarter of this year, before incremental improvements will occur, Yun said.

    “An annual gain in home sales will not occur until 2024,” said Yun. “Meanwhile, home prices will be steady in most parts of the country with a minor change in the national median home price.”

    All regions saw a month-to-month increase in pending home sales, with the Northeast up 6%, the Midwest up 7.9%, the South up 8.3% and the West up 10.1%.

    “An extra bump occurred in the West region because of lower home prices, while gains in the South were due to stronger job growth in that region,” Yun said.

    Home prices are dropping fastest in areas where prices ran up the most in the frenzied market of the past few years.

    But overall, the number of home sales are expected to drop this year, according to NAR’s forecast.

    NAR anticipates the economy will continue to add jobs throughout this year and next, with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate steadily dropping to an average of 6.1% in 2023 and 5.4% in 2024.

    Even with an improving interest rate environment and job gains, Yun still expects annual existing-home sales to drop about 11% this year from last year, before jumping up about 18% in 2024. NAR projects new-home sales will fall about 4% this year compared with last year before surging nearly 20% in 2024.

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  • Economists’ crystal balls are growing cloudier. But they still expect a recession | CNN Business

    Economists’ crystal balls are growing cloudier. But they still expect a recession | CNN Business

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    Minneapolis
    CNN
     — 

    The US economy is confusing: Jobs are surging. Inflation has been cooling but still running relatively hot. Gas prices are on the rebound. Consumers keep spending, and their confidence is growing. But holiday sales were tepid. Corporate layoffs are mounting. Company earnings aren’t stellar. And mortgage rates are ticking higher.

    In a time when the economic data has delivered mixed messages or flat out busted expectations, economists’ predictions for the year ahead are growing increasingly opaque.

    The National Association for Business Economics’ latest survey, released Monday, shows a “significant divergence” among respondents about where they think the US economy is heading in 2023, the organization’s president said.

    “Estimates of inflation-adjusted gross domestic product or real GDP, inflation, labor market indicators, and interest rates are all widely diffused, likely reflecting a variety of opinions on the fate of the economy — ranging from recession to soft landing to robust growth,” Julia Coronado, NABE’s president, said in a statement.

    Nearly 60% of survey respondents said they believe the US had a more than 50% shot of entering a recession in the next 12 months.

    When such a recession would start was another matter: 28% said first quarter, 33% said second quarter, and 21% said third quarter.

    As the Federal Reserve’s battle against high inflation continues to loom large, economists anticipate that key inflation gauges will slow this year, landing around 2.7% to 3% in 2023 and inching closer to the 2% target by 2024.

    Creating some uncertainty among economists, however, is what the Fed might do during that time as well as the potential effect from external factors.

    “Panelists’ views are split regarding how high the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates, how long rates might stay at the peak, when cuts would begin, and what would signal the central bank’s actions on each of these fronts,” Dana M. Peterson, NABE Outlook Survey chair, and chief economist at the Conference Board, said in the report. “Respondents are also highly concerned but divided in their opinions regarding the consequences of other matters that might affect the US economy, including the impact of China’s reopening on global inflation and the looming debt ceiling.”

    In terms of the labor market, which remains strong and tight, panelists’ median projections for monthly payroll growth this year was 102,000, a significant upward revision from projections in December for 76,000 jobs per month.

    NABE economists said they expect unemployment to increase, but the majority doubt it’ll exceed 5%.

    On the housing front, they expect home prices and new home construction to continue to fall this year, projecting that housing starts could see their largest decline since 2009.

    But they don’t anticipate the downturn to swing into “bust” territory. A mere 2% of respondents said that a “housing market bust” was the greatest downside risk to the US economy in 2023.

    Instead 51% of respondents said the biggest downside risk was too much monetary tightening. Trailing far behind in second was the broadening of war in Ukraine, with 12%.

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  • Warren Buffett is missing out on this year’s market comeback | CNN Business

    Warren Buffett is missing out on this year’s market comeback | CNN Business

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    A version of this story first appeared in CNN Business’ Before the Bell newsletter. Not a subscriber? You can sign up right here.


    New York
    CNN
     — 

    Warren Buffett is arguably the most legendary investor of all time. But the Oracle of Omaha has missed out on this year’s stock market rally. So far, at least.

    Shares of Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway

    (BRKB)
    conglomerate, a company that owns businesses ranging from Geico and the Burlington Northern Santa Fe railroad to consumer brands like Dairy Queen, Duracell and Fruit of the Loom, are down slightly this year — lagging the market, as the S&P 500 is up 6%. (The Nasdaq has done even better, surging 12%.)

    Berkshire Hathaway also has a giant stock portfolio that Buffett helps run. Apple

    (AAPL)
    is now by far the top holding for Berkshire, which also has big stakes in Bank of America

    (BAC)
    , Chevron

    (CVX)
    , American Express

    (AXP)
    and Coca-Cola

    (KO)
    .

    So is Berkshire’s portfolio, dare we say it, a little too boring? After all, if you want exposure to the big blue chips he owns, you could just buy an S&P 500 index fund.

    Buffett, in fact, has promoted that idea to investors many times, arguing that most individual stock pickers will not be able to beat the market. The 92-year-old Buffett, who has a net worth of more than $100 billion according to Forbes, even said that he wants the trustee in charge of his will to put 90% of his wife’s inheritance in index funds.

    Still, investors pay extremely close attention to Buffett every time he speaks. So traders will be poring over every word in his annual shareholder letter, which will be released the morning of Saturday, February 25, along with Berkshire’s latest earnings report.

    Don’t expect any major surprises. Buffett will probably continue to extol the virtues of a long-term, patient approach to investing and give a bullish outlook for the US economy. And to his credit, that usually pays dividends: Berkshire stock was up 3% last year in a down market.

    But market watchers are looking to see what Buffett says about the current inflationary scourge that has had a big impact on consumers and investors. He has lived through a couple of bouts of high inflation, after all.

    “I would like to hear Buffett address what’s going on with interest rates and inflation up as much they are,” said Steve Check, president of Check Capital Management, an investment firm that owns Berkshire shares. “He talked a lot about how concerned he was in the 1970s and 1980s.”

    Buffett has made numerous comments about inflation over the past few decades. And he was particularly nervous during the late 1970s and early 1980s, when soaring oil prices created an inflationary shock that severely hurt the economy.

    “High rates of inflation create a tax on capital that makes much corporate investment unwise,” Buffett said in his 1980 shareholder letter to Berkshire investors. Buffett also described inflation as a gigantic parasitic “tapeworm” for businesses in 1981.

    Buffett may also need to address how top-heavy and concentrated his portfolio has become. Berkshire’s five largest holdings make up about 75% of the company’s stock investments.

    “The portfolio is significantly overweight [in] technology, energy, consumer staples, and financials relative to the S&P 500,” said Bill Stone, chief investment officer with The Glenview Trust Company, another Berkshire shareholder, in a report. Stone noted that Berkshire also has big stakes in Kraft Heinz

    (KHC)
    and oil company Occidental Petroleum

    (OXY)
    .

    Investors also want to hear more about what Buffett plans to do with Berkshire’s massive pile of cash. The company has more than $100 billion on its balance sheet. Are more acquisitions coming?

    Buffett has talked for the past few years about how he’s longing to do an “elephant-sized” deal with Berkshire’s cash. Its most recent big deal was last year’s purchase of insurer Alleghany for $11.6 billion.

    Still, the recent sluggish performance of Berkshire’s stock is unlikely to deter the faithful Buffett fans, many of whom are expected to make the annual pilgrimage to Omaha on May 6 for the company’s shareholder meeting.

    Berkshire vice chairman Charlie Munger will likely be on stage with Buffett. So will Greg Abel, the chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway Energy who Buffett has handpicked to eventually succeed him as Berkshire Hathaway CEO.

    Buffett’s faith in the US economy is well founded. American consumers have proven to be remarkably resilient despite rampant inflation. The surprisingly strong retail sales gains for January is further proof of that.

    Investors will get several more clues about consumer spending this week when several top retailers report earnings.

    Dow components Walmart

    (WMT)
    and Home Depot

    (HD)
    are the highlights. Walmart

    (WMT)
    , which has a massive grocery business, should shed some light on how shoppers are coping with surging grocery prices.

    Walmart could still benefit from its reputation as a place for bargains, though. That could even attract more affluent shoppers looking to save a buck.

    “With inflation remaining elevated in the U.S., we expect Walmart to see continued trade-down benefits…particularly from higher-income customers,” said Arun Sundaram, an analyst at CFRA Research, in a report.

    And investors will be looking for clues about the health of the housing market when Home Depot reports. Placer.ai, a research firm that measures foot traffic at top retailers, said in a recent report that consumers are returning to Home Depot and rival Lowe’s at almost pre-pandemic levels — even despite the housing slowdown.

    One reason? Current homeowners may decide to spend more on renovations if they now plan to stick in their current house longer instead of looking to sell.

    “Although the hot home-buying market is cooling off…foot traffic remains close to pre-pandemic levels due to a shift towards projects aimed at sprucing up a current living space,” said Placer.ai’s Ezra Carmel in a report. “It appears that projects that enhance the prospect of staying in place also have the ability to drive visits.”

    Investors will be keeping close tabs on several other retailers set to report earnings this week, including TJX

    (TJX)
    — the owner of TJ Maxx, Marshalls and HomeGoods — as well as online retailers eBay

    (EBAY)
    , Etsy

    (ETSY)
    , Overstock

    (OSTK)
    , Wayfair

    (W)
    and China’s Alibaba

    (BABA)
    .

    The US government is also set to release personal spending figures for January on Friday, another data point that will give a glimpse of consumers’ financial health.

    Monday: US stock and bond markets closed for Presidents’ Day

    Tuesday: US existing home sales; Eurozone and UK PMI; earnings from Walmart, Home Depot, Medtronic

    (MDT)
    , Fluor

    (FLR)
    , Molson Coors

    (TAP)
    , Caesars Entertainment

    (CZR)
    , Diamondback Energy

    (FANG)
    , Chesapeake Energy

    (CHK)
    , Palo Alto Networks

    (PANW)
    , Coinbase, La-Z-Boy

    (LZB)
    and Hostess Brands

    (TWNK)

    Wednesday: Weekly crude oil inventories; earnings from Stellantis, Baidu

    (BIDU)
    , TJX, Garmin

    (GRMN)
    , Overstock, Wingstop

    (WING)
    , Nvidia

    (NVDA)
    , eBay, Etsy and Bumble

    Thursday: US weekly jobless claims; US Q4 GDP (second estimate); Eurozone inflation; Turkey interest rate decision; earnings from Alibaba, Netease

    (NTES)
    , Keurig Dr Pepper

    (KDP)
    , Wayfair, Newmont, Domino’s

    (DPZ)
    , Papa John’s

    (PZZA)
    , Yeti

    (YETI)
    , Nikola, CNN owner Warner Bros. Discovery, Block

    (SQ)
    , Booking Holdings

    (BKNG)
    , Live Nation

    (LYV)
    , Carvana

    (CVNA)
    , Intuit

    (INTU)
    and Beyond Meat

    (BYND)

    Friday: US personal income and spending; US PCE inflation figures; US new home sales; Japan inflation; Germany Q4 GDP; earnings from CIBC

    (CM)
    , Scripps

    (SSP)
    and Cinemark

    (CNK)

    Saturday: Berkshire Hathaway earnings and Warren Buffett annual shareholder letter

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  • Here are the US cities where home prices are actually falling | CNN Business

    Here are the US cities where home prices are actually falling | CNN Business

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    Washington, DC
    CNN
     — 

    Home prices are going up across the country — in aggregate. Looking at individual markets, however, some are showing prices have fallen from a year ago.

    Single-family median home prices increased 4% in the fourth quarter from a year ago to $378,700. Prices were strongest in the Northeast in the last quarter, up 5.3%; followed by the South, up 4.9%; the Midwest, up 4% and the West, up 2.6%, according to the National Association of Realtors.

    But drill down to the market level and it’s clear that prices in some areas are declining from the prior year. The positive regional numbers mask that about 11% of individual housing markets tracked by NAR — 20 of 186 cities — experienced home price declines in the fourth quarter of last year.

    “A few markets may see double-digit price drops, especially some of the more expensive parts of the country, which have also seen weaker employment and higher instances of residents moving to other areas,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist.

    Nearly all of the most expensive places to buy are in the West and half of the 10 most expensive cities are in California. Several of those places are seeing prices fall the most.

    San Jose, California, was the most expensive place to purchase a home in the United States in the fourth quarter. But that median price of $1,577,500 is actually down 5.8% from a year ago — and prices there have already dropped 17% from the peak $1,900,000 median price in the second quarter of last year, according to NAR.

    San Francisco had the biggest price drop in the country, year over year, last quarter, with the median price of $1,230,000 — down 6.1% from a year ago. Prices for San Francisco homes are already down 21% in the fourth quarter from the peak median price of $1,550,000 in the second quarter.

    Among the most expensive cities that saw prices falling are Anaheim, California, with the median price of $1,132,000, down 1.6% from a year ago; Los Angeles, with the median price of $829,100, down 1.3%; and Boulder, Colorado, with the median price of $759,500, down 2.0%.

    Other places with falling prices saw the big price increases during the frenzied home buying market of the past few years. They also tend to be appealing lifestyle destinations where people moved to as remote work provided more flexibility. These include Boise, Idaho, where prices fell 3.4% from a year ago and Austin, Texas, where prices are down 1.3%.

    The good news for buyers looking for price relief is that the 4% median price hike in the fourth quarter is less than the 8.6% increase in the third quarter. In addition, the price increases are smaller, with far fewer markets experiencing double-digit price gains in the fourth quarter.

    “A slowdown in home prices is underway and welcomed, particularly as the typical home price has risen 42% in the past three years,” said Yun, noting these cost increases have far surpassed wage increases and consumer price inflation since 2019.

    Throughout much of the pandemic, home prices across the country moved in a single direction: up. Some hotspots like Austin and Boise saw prices skyrocket. Other areas — particularly in the Midwest — saw prices go up more moderately. Yet, because mortgage rates were near historic lows, buyers came out in droves.

    That story changed last year, when mortgage rates spiked as a result of the Federal Reserve’s historic campaign to rein in inflation. Homebuying fell off a cliff. By the end of 2022, sales of existing homes were down nearly 18% from 2021 as would-be homebuyers left the market, according to NAR.

    Typically, a drop in demand to buy would mean excess supply and ultimately lead to prices coming down. But that’s not happening, broadly speaking, in the housing market.

    Instead, prices for single-family homes climbed in nearly 90% of metro areas tracked by NAR in the fourth quarter: 166 markets out of 186 saw prices still going up. The national median price of a single-family home increased 4% last quarter from one year ago to $378,700.

    How can this be?

    One main driver of this phenomenon is that there is a shortage of inventory due to chronic underbuilding of affordable homes in the United States, along with homeowners who don’t want to part with the ultra-low mortgage rate they secured over the past few years.

    “Even with a projected reduction in home sales this year, prices are expected to remain stable in the vast majority of the markets due to extremely limited supply,” said Yun.

    There are still places where home prices continue to climb at double-digit rates. The top 10 cities with the largest year-over-year price increases all recorded gains of at least 14.5%, with seven of those markets in Florida and the Carolinas, according to NAR.

    Farmington, New Mexico, saw the biggest price increase in the fourth quarter, up 20.3% from a year ago. It was followed by Sarasota, Florida, up 19.5%; Naples, Florida, up 17.2%; Greensboro, North Carolina, up 17.0%; Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, up 16.2%; Oshkosh, Wisconsin, up 16.0%; Winston-Salem, North Carolina, up 15.7%; El Paso, Texas, up 15.2%; Punta Gorda, Florida, up 15.2%; and Daytona Beach, Florida, up 14.5%.

    In the last quarter of 2022 a family needed a qualifying income of at least $100,000 to afford a 10% down payment mortgage in 71 markets, up from 59 in the prior quarter, according to NAR.

    Yet there were 16 markets where a family needed a qualifying income of less than $50,000 to afford a home, although that was down from 17 the previous quarter. Some of those included Peoria, Illinois, where a family can qualify for a loan with an income of $33,660; Waterloo, Iowa, with an income of $40,639; and Montgomery, Alabama, with an income of $48,172.

    Nationally, the monthly mortgage payment on a typical existing single-family home with a 20% down payment was $1,969 in the fourth quarter according to NAR. That’s a 7% increase from the third quarter of last year, when the monthly payment was $1,838, but a major surge of 58% — or a $720 monthly increase — from one year ago.

    This made the affordability picture even harder for many home buyers. Families typically spent 26.2% of their income on mortgage payments, which was up from 25% in the prior quarter and 17.5% one year ago.

    First-time buyers were evidently pushed to a breaking point on affordability. They typically spent 39.5% of their family income on mortgage payments, up from 37.8% in the previous quarter. A mortgage is considered unaffordable if the monthly payment, including principal and interest, amounts to more than 25% of the family’s income. Generally, a common financial rule of thumb is to not spend more than 30% of your income on housing costs.

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