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Democrats coalesce around a Joe Biden 2024 campaign as reelection decision looms | CNN Politics

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CNN
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As President Joe Biden’s top advisers circulated at White House holiday parties and held quiet briefings for key allies last month, a formulation of the same question came up again and again: How can I help with the campaign?

It was a consistent, if informal, query from donors, operatives, activists and celebrities alike, one Biden adviser recalled. It was also a clear shift that only served to bolster the view inside the West Wing that, after a year defined by intra-party questions about just about everything Biden did, the party has coalesced around one final White House run.

Officially, there isn’t a campaign yet. And Biden has yet to personally interview any candidates for top roles. But as he nears a final decision on running for reelection, Biden has given every indication to those around him he is preparing to launch another bid for president.

A tight circle of Biden’s closest advisers have been working for months to build a campaign apparatus to be ready for his decision, and they have started to eye next month for a potential announcement.

They have consulted with top officials in battleground states on lessons learned from the midterms to build a strategy for 2024.

They are also methodically starting to rollout a message that emphasizes Biden’s accomplishments while allowing Republicans’ intra-party feuding to speak for itself. The central tenets of that message have shown up in Biden’s post-midterm election travel around the country – an itinerary that included visits to Arizona and Michigan and will put Biden in Georgia on January 15.

All three were critical to Biden’s path to victory in 2020 and will be again should he run in 2024. All three remain hotly contested battleground states.

“In time,” Biden said this week after a reporter asked when he would announce his reelection bid.

For the president, the decision to run again combines questions of duty, pride, family and health. Already the oldest president in history, Biden would be 86 at the end of potential second term. His team is keenly aware that Biden’s age – specifically the public perception tied to it – is one of his biggest liabilities. It remains the reason many Democratic voters say in polls he should not seek another term.

But to many on his team the decision appears all but made, even as Biden was set to consult with members of his family over his winter vacation in the US Virgin Islands about mounting a reelection bid. Aides said the president spent the week on St. Croix in high spirits, golfing with his grandson and relaxing in the sun on a secluded and private beach.

In conversations with CNN, close Biden allies, administration officials and members of Congress said it is nearly impossible to find anyone in the president’s world these days who believes anything other than the fact that the president will seek a second term.

“We all operate under the assumption he’s running,” said one senior administration official.

“The guy is running,” said a Democratic lawmaker in close touch with the West Wing.

“We all know: He’s running,” was how another top official in the administration put it. “All systems go.”

CNN Exclusive: Pelosi and Schumer say Biden should run for re-election in 2024

Biden said the day after the November midterms that he “intended” to run again, barring any unforeseen episode. And he and his family have signaled to others – including in early December to the visiting French President Emmanuel Macron – that they are preparing for a run.

Biden’s reluctance to definitively announce his intentions is in part driven by a desire to avoid triggering compliance with candidate election laws.

Advisers, however, note that when Biden says he’s a “great respecter of fate,” it’s less of a dodge than it would appear.

“When you’ve been through what he’s been through the last five decades, personally and politically, that’s not a BS answer,” said one person with long-standing close ties to Biden, citing the family tragedies that play a central role in the president’s worldview. “But nobody is more cognizant of the things that are out of your control.”

That said, the person noted, “The way things have aligned certainly drives a view that his theory of the case has been on the mark.”

Senior White House aides were buoyed by a notable shift at the end of last year. The core of Biden’s agenda had been signed into law, laying out a road map for tangible accomplishments to highlight in the months ahead even as a new House Republican majority was set to freeze broader White House legislative ambitions.

Predictions of an all but certain political demise appeared greatly exaggerated, but even some Democratic reservations remain – albeit in a significantly less public form.

“A lot of things went right at the right time to end the year the way we did,” one House Democrat said. “I’m behind him, but my concern is that they’re overreading just how responsible they are for what came together.”

Still, the results of the midterm election have marked a notable turning point – if not in Biden’s actual decision-making process, which only a handful of individuals close to the president are genuinely privy to, then in the widespread perception around whether Biden intends to seek a second term.

“There was a feeling that our folks could finally exhale,” one person familiar with the dynamics told CNN. “We laid out our plans and our theory of the case and it wasn’t that they didn’t believe it in, they just didn’t think it would carry the day politically. Well, now we have evidence it did just that.”

The evidence advisers point to includes a clear-cut record of consequential legislative success and an economy they believe has transitioned from a period of historically rapid recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic to a level of consistent durability. They believe that consistency comes as there are concrete signs the soaring inflation that has plagued his second year in office has started to ebb.

That sense of vindication was only deepened, some said, by the long-running sense among Biden’s closest allies that he has consistently been underestimated – including in the last presidential election.

“Especially after the midterms,” a senior administration official said, the broadly held belief about Biden’s political future solidified into: “Of course he’s running.”

Tapper questions Biden about his age ahead of potential 2024 bid

Earlier this year, some Biden advisers privately hoped for a decision and announcement by the middle of January, believing it was important to signal Biden’s intentions to fellow Democrats – including those who foster their own presidential aspirations.

But in the nearly two months since November’s midterms, Biden has left little question as to his plans, both in public and in private conversations, and nearly every Democrat seen as a possible contender has said they would hold off running if Biden gets in the race.

Aides have also kept a close eye on the lackadaisical launch of former President Donald Trump’s third run for the presidency, with a sense that it underscores there is no overarching need to rush out with a decision.

Biden’s advisers have kept a close eye on other likely top-tier Republican candidates, including Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, as the Democratic National Committee has continued its extensive efforts to compile research on potential challengers.

Yet there is a view that those Republicans are certain to spend the next year trending sharply right in order to compete in the GOP primary – something that will give Democrats ample areas of contrast, or attack, against whoever emerges in a general election.

While Biden recently said that he hopes to announce his decision early in the new year, many who know him well are skeptical that the president will meet that aspirational timeline. They point to the many self-imposed deadlines he has blown past before – from major policy announcements to his deliberations over whether to run for president in the 2020 election.

“No way,” said a top administration official about the prospects of Biden sharing his official decision in the first month of 2023. “Joe Biden likes to stretch things out.”

Biden’s team has pointed to former President Barack Obama’s reelection announcement in April 2011 as a guidepost, though expect Biden to make his announcement earlier than that – potentially by the end of February.

Much like the decision timeline, the nascent campaign infrastructure – and the key players that drive its operations – will reflect Biden. As one person who has worked with Biden on several campaigns put it: “The president will drive this and whatever we do will be because it’s what he thinks is the right path – no matter what talking heads or outside operatives say.”

That idea also serves as the driver behind a campaign infrastructure that has to some degree been built out on a steady basis since before Biden even set foot in the Oval Office.

Immediately after the 2020 election, Biden directed his campaign to turn over its assets to the Democratic National Committee, from the grassroots fundraising infrastructure to the distributed organizing program. The move helped drive roughly $90 million in state and electoral programs in the lead up to the midterms – nearly triple the amount of the 2018 midterm cycle.

Overall, the DNC raised $292 million through September 2022, a record for the committee, and Biden’s 2020 campaign infrastructure drove $155 million in grassroots fundraising.

The fundraising is critical, Democratic officials said, but the roots of any reelection campaign lie in decisions that built out state-level infrastructure months earlier than any prior cycle while overarching data operations were centralized and constantly refreshed at the same time.

The key states targeted for the new investments were all critical battlegrounds in the midterm elections. But in the words of one Democratic official, “it doesn’t take a political genius to overlay those battlegrounds with the Biden 2020 map.”

The states include Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, New Hampshire, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. All but one of those states – North Carolina – was in the win column for Biden in 2020 and all will be central to any pathway should he choose to run in 2024.

When Biden is ready to make his announcement, the DNC infrastructure that was always quietly viewed as the core infrastructure of a reelection campaign will be ready to go.

It’s a dramatically different moment from the one Biden faced as he closed in on his decision in 2019 for a campaign that largely started from scratch and at various points faced financial, infrastructure and organizational issues.

This time around, Biden’s operation will “have the benefit of turning things on whenever we want them, as fast as we want them,” one adviser said.

Axelrod on 2024 primaries: If you’re thinking of challenging Biden, ‘forget about it’

For Biden, however, the message has always been the most important piece of the equation – and it’s already clear officials have a good sense of what it will be based on the work of Biden’s first two years.

Much of that work flows directly from past campaign promises or carry a through-line from Biden’s long-held views about both politics and policy. But advisers note, it will also making clear that there is vital work still to be done.

Top White House advisers Mike Donilon and Bruce Reed, both longtime Biden aides, have already begun work on the annual State of the Union address, which is viewed internally in part as a springboard for the president’s reelection message.

first speech as House speaker, McCarthy told his colleagues, “Now the hard work begins.” He also said: “As speaker of the House, my ultimate responsibility is not to my party, my conference, or even our Congress. My responsibility, our responsibility, is to our country.”” class=”image_gallery-image__dam-img image_gallery-image__dam-img–loading” onload=’this.classList.remove(‘image_gallery-image__dam-img–loading’)’ height=”1667″ width=”2500″/>

points at McCarthy after McCarthy confronted him over his “present” vote on the 14th ballot Friday.” class=”image_gallery-image__dam-img image_gallery-image__dam-img–loading” onload=’this.classList.remove(‘image_gallery-image__dam-img–loading’)’ height=”2000″ width=”3000″/>

motion to adjourn on Thursday evening. The House voted to adjourn until noon on Friday.” class=”image_gallery-image__dam-img image_gallery-image__dam-img–loading” onload=’this.classList.remove(‘image_gallery-image__dam-img–loading’)’ height=”1667″ width=”2500″/>

Cheryl Johnson receives a standing ovation in the House chamber on Thursday.” class=”image_gallery-image__dam-img image_gallery-image__dam-img–loading” onload=’this.classList.remove(‘image_gallery-image__dam-img–loading’)’ height=”1667″ width=”2500″/>

Perry said he needed more changes before he could vote for McCarthy.” class=”image_gallery-image__dam-img image_gallery-image__dam-img–loading” onload=’this.classList.remove(‘image_gallery-image__dam-img–loading’)’ height=”1667″ width=”2500″/>

He told CNN Thursday that the vote for speakership can end in two ways: “Either Kevin McCarthy withdraws from the race, or we construct a straitjacket that he is unable to evade.”” class=”image_gallery-image__dam-img image_gallery-image__dam-img–loading” onload=’this.classList.remove(‘image_gallery-image__dam-img–loading’)’ height=”1667″ width=”2500″/>

made a plea for unity in his nomination speech, saying, the “issues that divide us today are much less severe that they were in 1856; in fact, there’s far more that unite us, than divide us, regardless of our political party of ideology.”” class=”image_gallery-image__dam-img image_gallery-image__dam-img–loading” onload=’this.classList.remove(‘image_gallery-image__dam-img–loading’)’ height=”1667″ width=”2500″/>

House of Representatives members should be sworn in — even if a speaker is not chosen yet — so their families can witness the moment and not have to wait around the Capitol all day.” class=”image_gallery-image__dam-img image_gallery-image__dam-img–loading” onload=’this.classList.remove(‘image_gallery-image__dam-img–loading’)’ height=”1667″ width=”2500″/>

told Gosar that there was no plan to do that. Last year, the House voted to censure Gosar and remove him from committees after he photoshopped an anime video to social media showing him appearing to kill Ocasio-Cortez and attacking President Joe Biden.” class=”image_gallery-image__dam-img image_gallery-image__dam-img–loading” onload=’this.classList.remove(‘image_gallery-image__dam-img–loading’)’ height=”2000″ width=”3000″/>

The embattled New York Republican faces a federal probe into his finances and mounting scrutiny and condemnation over lies about his biography. ” class=”image_gallery-image__dam-img image_gallery-image__dam-img–loading” onload=’this.classList.remove(‘image_gallery-image__dam-img–loading’)’ height=”1667″ width=”2500″/>

In pictures: McCarthy elected speaker after historic stalemate

At the end of last year, key Democratic allies were brought into the White House for briefings about Biden’s messaging strategy in 2023, with a heavy emphasis on elements of his record that will start to take hold in the coming months.

Biden himself sought to emphasize the fruits of his legislative accomplishments during his first Cabinet meeting of the year on Thursday.

“We need to focus on implementing some of the big laws that we actually passed so the American people can feel what we’ve done,” Biden said.

“After a rough few years, we’re seeing some real bright spots I believe across our entire nation. I think we’re making some real progress,” he added.

Biden’s message – focused on bipartisanship and the accomplishments from his first two years in office – provides an intentional contrast with Republicans, who spent their first week in control of the House consumed by intraparty warfare over the normally smooth process of formalizing who will be speaker of the House.

White House officials intentionally stayed silent on the battle, content to let the chaos on the House floor speak for itself as Biden stuck to a schedule focused on legislative accomplishments and priorities for the year ahead.

The GOP infighting is only expected to worsen as presidential hopefuls enter a primary contest currently dominated by Trump, who is currently the only declared candidate in the race.

Still, advisers acknowledge the road, if Biden gives an official go-ahead will be both uneven and exceedingly long in the 22 months before votes are counted.

But the work to design and put into place the roadmap for that period has been quietly underway for months and has accelerating in the wake of a midterm election that provided reams of new information about the path ahead.

Biden’s inner circle remains small, as does the number of people fully engaged in the process, even as Democratic officials and top-tier campaign hands have received calls at various points of the last several weeks.

The 2020 campaign brain trust remains largely intact inside the White House and makes up the core of most critical voices for Biden, with campaign manager Jen O’Malley Dillon serving as deputy White House chief of staff and continuing to run point on his political operation.

Donilon and Reed serve as two of Biden’s closest White House advisers and Steve Ricchetti, another long-time Biden world mainstay, as counselor to the president. Anita Dunn, senior adviser to Biden, is now in her second stint inside Biden’s West Wing and Ron Klain, the White House chief of staff, remain two of the most trusted voices in Biden’s orbit.

In preparation for a run, Biden’s team has delved into analysis and polling from last year’s midterm races, hoping to discern trends and identify weak points for the coming presidential race. They have sought to ensure voter and data files are completely updated and ready for next year, and are speaking to campaign managers, key digital staffers and field organizers to discuss practices that worked.

For now, the biggest focus of Biden’s team is trying to map out new ways to reach voters, a process that’s been underway for more than a year amid historic changes to how Americans vote. Discussions led by Rob Flaherty, currently serving at the White House as director of digital strategy, have sought to home in on how to create high-quality voter engagement in new ways, utilizing the experiences of successful Democratic candidates in the midterms.

Advisers don’t view the process as one that will be complete by the time Biden announces his decision. They instead expect to spend the coming year testing out various ways to target audiences and mobilize supporters.

It’s an approach that dovetails with the overarching view of the year ahead: a steady, methodical and intensive process that builds toward 2024 – one that got its first run in Biden’s first major event this year.

Biden traveled to Covington, Kentucky, last week to highlight nearly $2 billion that had been secured to repair a bridge that for decades had served as an intractable problem. Politicians from both parties had pledged to get the money to fix the Brent Spence Bridge – including Biden’s predecessor, who had made the pledge “several times,” one official was pleased to point out – but Biden was the one who could say he finally delivered.

As House Republicans continued their descent into full scale intra-party warfare over their next leader, Biden was standing on stage with a bipartisan group of lawmakers and governors touting the bipartisan win.

Among them was Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, an arch nemesis of Democrats who Biden heaped praise on for his help in getting the $1.2 trillion infrastructure law across the finish line, despite their clear and extensive differences.

McConnell, for his part, called it a “legislative miracle.”

“I wanted to start off the new year at this historic project here in Ohio and Kentucky with a bipartisan group of officials because I believe it sends an important message to the entire country,” Biden said in his remarks. “We can work together. We can get things done. We can move the nation forward.”

Biden’s message wasn’t lost on some watching in Washington.

“Tough to argue with the idea, especially with McConnell by your side,” one Republican campaign official said, even as it was made clear he opposed Biden. “It’s almost like, if you listen closely, you just might be hearing a central reelection campaign message.”

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January 9, 2023
McCarthy speaker saga shows Trump is far from untouchable ahead of 2024 | CNN Politics

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CNN
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Kevin McCarthy’s seven-year-plus dream to become House speaker finally became reality early Saturday morning. The California Republican’s tumultuous journey concluded after six Republican holdouts voted “present,” allowing him to win on the 15th ballot with a lower majority threshold.

McCarthy credited Donald Trump for his support in the speaker’s race, and the former president was quick to bask in the glory of McCarthy’s victory.

Make no mistake, though: McCarthy’s struggle to win the speaker’s gavel is only the latest indication that Trump’s brand among Republicans has been significantly weakened. Trump is no doubt still a powerful presence in the GOP, but he’s very vulnerable in his bid to win the Republican presidential nomination for a third time.

Let’s state the facts of what unfolded. McCarthy was backed by Trump from the beginning in his speakership campaign. McCarthy trumpeted Trump’s endorsement, and Trump, in turn, made his preference well known.

It would be difficult to imagine Republicans defying Trump at the height of his power. But that’s exactly what happened this time around. Despite the many appeals from Trump, this year’s speakership process was the longest in over 150 years. It was the first time in a century that more than one ballot had been needed to elect the speaker.

To the point of Trump’s waning power, just look at the Republicans who delayed McCarthy from becoming speaker on January 3. They were almost all hardcore Trump believers. Of those who were serving in the last Congress, just one (Rep. Chip Roy) had voted to certify Joe Biden’s presidential win.

The lawmakers in this group who had voting records are from the very conservative part of the GOP. This is where Trump’s strength among Republicans had been most evident at the end of his presidency. Yet, Trump’s expressed support for McCarthy wasn’t enough to keep these hardcore conservatives in line.

These Republicans, it seems, didn’t fear Trump like they once might have. And when you look at the polling, that lack of trepidation makes sense.

Right now, Trump isn’t beloved by Republican voters. We see this in the percentage of Republicans who hold a strongly favorable (or very favorable) rating of him. Strongly favorable means you don’t merely like a politician, you love him.

Trump’s strongly favorable rating in a Fox News poll last month was 43% among Republican voters. That’s good, but it’s not great for a universally known politician. Ron DeSantis’ strongly favorable rating in the same poll was 40%, even though 16% of Republicans had no opinion of the Florida governor.

Trump’s strongly favorable rating is way down from where it was at the time of the 2020 election. In a late October 2020 Fox News poll, his strongly favorable rating was 68%. He’s dropped 25 points on this measure since then.

It’s not that Republicans don’t like Trump. His overall favorable rating among Republicans in the same Fox News poll from last month was 77%. (Other polls put his favorable rating with Republicans in the 60s.) It’s more that they don’t love the former president. At least not enough to scare Republican politicians into following his every word.

When we zoom in on very conservative Republicans (i.e., like the holdouts against McCarthy), the difference from where we were and where we are is quite stark. Our CNN/SSRS poll asked GOP voters (including independents who lean Republican) both at the beginning and the end of 2022 whether they wanted Trump or someone else to be the 2024 Republican nominee.

Trump started 2022 with 65% of very conservative Republican voters saying they wanted him to be the Republican nominee. This was way higher than Republicans overall (50%). He ended the year with 42% of very conservative Republican voters believing he should be the GOP nominee, not too different from the 38% of Republicans overall who felt the same.

A Monmouth University poll from December found very conservative Republicans preferring DeSantis to Trump on the 2024 ballot test.

The bottom line is that what happened to McCarthy and Trump’s inability to prevent a once-in-a-generation speaker ballot saga is a manifestation of what is going on among Republicans at large. Trump is no longer the dominant figure, untouchable by GOP voters. He isn’t even holding on to those Republicans who essentially thought he could walk on water.

This leaves the answer to the question of who wins the 2024 Republican nomination very much unclear at this point.

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January 8, 2023
How McCarthy survived the House chaos to win the speaker’s gavel | CNN Politics

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CNN
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Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz strode into House GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy’s office on Monday night with a list of demands. Among them: The chairmanship of a key House Armed Services subcommittee.

McCarthy rejected the offer. That decision set in motion a chain of events that left Gaetz and McCarthy locked in open confrontation on the House floor late Friday night. Gaetz, McCarthy’s staunchest opponent, dramatically denied McCarthy the final vote he needed to become speaker – then Gaetz and the last holdouts abruptly changed course allowing McCarthy to win the speaker’s gavel on his 15th attempt.

See the moment Rep. Kevin McCarthy was elected House speaker

Before the final vote, pandemonium erupted on the House floor after Gaetz waited until the very end of the 14th ballot to vote “present” when McCarthy needed one more “yes” vote. Stunned after believing he had the votes, McCarthy faced his most embarrassing defeat yet. McCarthy’s allies encircled Gaetz to try to find a way forward. McCarthy soon made a bee-line for discussion and started engaging Gaetz, too.

After McCarthy walked away from Gaetz, looking dejected, Armed Services Chairman Mike Rogers moved toward the conversation and lunged at Gaetz, having to be physically restrained by Republican Rep. Richard Hudson of North Carolina. Rogers, a Republican from Alabama who earlier in the week warned the GOP dissidents they would lose their committee assignments, told Gaetz he would be “finished” for continuing to wreck the speaker’s vote.

Nearby, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia was trying to convince Rep. Matt Rosendale of Montana, another McCarthy holdout, to take her cell phone and speak to former President Donald Trump, who was on the line.

Finally, the House clerk announced for the 14th time that no one had the votes to be speaker. Republicans moved to adjourn the chamber until Monday. As the vote timer counted down, 218 Republicans had voted yes, a majority that would have sent McCarthy home for the weekend and left the House in paralysis at the hands of Gaetz and his allies.

But with less than a minute left to go in the vote, Gaetz moved toward the front of the chamber, grabbing a red index card to change his vote on adjournment. Gaetz walked toward McCarthy, and the two briefly exchanged words. McCarthy then raised his hand and yelled out, “One more!” as he triumphantly walked toward the front of the chamber to change his vote, too. It was the GOP leader’s final negotiation capping an emotional roller coaster over the course of four days as he was held hostage by a narrow faction of his conference. Dozens of Republicans followed McCarthy and Gaetz to defeat the adjournment measure, and McCarthy’s victory, at last, was at hand.

The six Republican holdouts all voted present on the 15th ballot, giving McCarthy a 216-212 victory to end the longest speaker’s race since 1859. Rep. Tom Emmer, one of McCarthy’s top deputies, went up and down the aisles telling Republicans on the House floor not to clap for Gaetz or Rep. Lauren Boebert when they announced their votes, like they had for other holdouts who had flipped to McCarthy earlier in the day.

Asked why he reversed course on McCarthy, Gaetz said, “I ran out of things I could even imagine to ask for.”

McCarthy expressed relief as he left the floor: “I’m glad it’s over.”

McCarthy denied Gaetz was offered the subcommittee gavel he had sought earlier in the week in exchange for his vote. “No one gets promised anything,” McCarthy said.

GOP lawmaker had to be restrained while confronting Gaetz. Hear what he told him

The chaotic scramble to the speakership came after days of marathon negotiations that exposed deep divides within the GOP and threw into question their ability to govern effectively in the 118th Congress. But McCarthy’s victory after facing 20 defectors on Tuesday also highlighted the successful strategy concocted by McCarthy and his top lieutenants to defeat the self-proclaimed “Never Kevin” movement led by Gaetz.

McCarthy’s strategy led to a breakthrough over two votes Friday afternoon, when McCarthy flipped 14 Republicans who had voted against him following marathon talks over House rules – setting the stage for the 11th-hour chaos with the final six holdouts.

It’s too soon to say whether the four-day speaker drama will become little more than an historical footnote for the 118th Congress, or if it’s an early indicator of even more bruising fights to come. But the fight over the speaker’s gavel exposed the bitter fault lines bubbling up in the Republican Party for the better course of a decade that will hover over the House for the next two years.

McCarthy’s concessions to the GOP dissidents are significant and could ultimately cut his tenure as speaker short. Among the rules changes: McCarthy agreed to restore a rule allowing a single Republican member to call for a vote to depose him as speaker, the same rule that led to John Boehner’s decision to resign as speaker in 2015.

Still, McCarthy’s victory Friday now gives him the long-sought speaker’s gavel and the chance to lead a House that will quickly turn its focus to investigating President Joe Biden, his administration and his family. More challenging for McCarthy and his conference are the looming fights later this year over government spending and the debt ceiling, where McCarthy cut deals on spending during this week’s negotiations likely to be unacceptable both to Democrats and the White House as well as Senate Republicans.

This account of how McCarthy finally won the fifth longest speaker’s fight in history is based on dozens of interviews throughout the week as the drama played out on and off the House floor with the fate of McCarthy’s political career and the legislative body itself hanging in the balance.

Analysis: Dana Bash reacts to McCarthy thanking Trump for speaker role

The morning following McCarthy’s Monday meeting with Gaetz, things got even worse for the GOP leader.

In a tense meeting in the basement of the Capitol with the full House GOP Conference, McCarthy and Gaetz got into a screaming match. McCarthy called out his detractors for asking for personal favors, including Gaetz, whom he said informed him he didn’t care if Democrat Hakeem Jeffries was elected speaker so long as he didn’t get the job.

Afterward, the Florida Republican accused McCarthy of acting in bad faith by asking him for a list of demands – and then by later berating him over it.

“It was very unseemly,” Rep. Dan Bishop of North Carolina, one of the 20 who initially opposed McCarthy.

That meeting – where Rep. Lauren Boebert of Colorado called out “bulls**t” on McCarthy and where the GOP leader engaged in heated exchanges with Reps. Chip Roy of Texas and Scott Perry of Pennsylvania – set the stage for the furious four-day battle.

Afterward, McCarthy and his allies knew they had a problem. They saw his opposition growing amid anger over McCarthy’s threats and tough talk. So they began to work on a strategy: Take the temperature down and divide the opponents away from Gaetz and provide concessions to far-right members of the conference who want more say in the legislative process.

McCarthy explains tense House floor discussion with Gaetz

At noon, the House gaveled in the 118th Congress, and lawmakers swarmed the House floor, children in tow, for what was supposed to begin a day of pageantry. In a sign of the new Republican rules, the magnetometers installed by outgoing Speaker Nancy Pelosi in the wake of the January 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol were removed from the doors to the House floor.

The first order of business quickly revealed the depth of the GOP opposition to McCarthy’s speakership bid.

McCarthy needed 218 votes, a majority of the House, meaning he could only lose four of the 222 Republicans as long as all Democrats voted for Jeffries. The clerk called out the names of all 434 members to vote in alphabetical order. McCarthy was denied a majority before the House clerk was through the “C’s,” and 19 Republicans voted for someone other than McCarthy – leaving him 15 votes short.

Jeffries, the new Democratic leader, got the most votes with 212.

McCarthy’s camp hunkered down, preparing to go through multiple votes for speaker for the first time in a century. “We’re going to war,” a senior GOP source told CNN.

McCarthy’s opponents were just as dug in. “We will never cave,” said Rep. Bob Good of Virginia.

On the second ballot, Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio – the Republican rabble-rouser turned McCarthy ally – rose to nominate McCarthy, after he had received six votes from the holdouts. Gaetz followed Jordan by nominating the Ohio Republican himself as a candidate. All 19 Republicans holdouts consolidated around Jordan, and the count ended in the same place as the first ballot.

Before the third vote, Rep. Byron Donalds of Florida, who had voted for McCarthy on the first two ballots, told CNN that McCarthy failed to “close the deal.” When his name was called minutes later, Donalds announced he was voting for Jordan, McCarthy’s first defection.

The list of McCarthy’s opponents grew to 20 when the third vote was announced, and the House adjourned for the day.

After the Tuesday’s three failed votes, McCarthy had debated having another GOP conference meeting. But the California Republican was advised not to, worried it would not be productive and would lead to another heated venting session that was leaked to the press in real time.

Hear Kevin McCarthy’s first speech as House speaker

Instead, McCarthy’s camp ultimately decided small meetings would be more fruitful after the two factions retreated to their corners. McCarthy made his own round of calls Tuesday evening, including to former President Donald Trump. Before leaving the Capitol, McCarthy claimed to reporters he believed he was “not that far away” from the votes he needed.

McCarthy said that the former president “reiterated support” for his speaker bid.

The day before the vote for speaker, the former president had declined to issue a statement reiterating his endorsement of McCarthy despite a behind-the-scenes effort from several McCarthy allies to get Trump to do so.

Finally, on Wednesday morning, Trump did release a statement on his social media site urging the House GOP to “VOTE FOR KEVIN.”

The former president’s message had little effect.

“I disagree with Trump. This is our fight. This isn’t Trump’s,” said South Carolina GOP Rep. Ralph Norman, one of the McCarthy dissenters.

Trump continued to keep the House drama at arms’ length until Friday, when he made calls to Gaetz and Rep. Andy Biggs of Arizona while they were on the House floor. After McCarthy won the speakership, Trump congratulated him on his social media site.

When the House gaveled back into session Wednesday, McCarthy lacked the votes to adjourn the session, as some of his allies had wanted in order to keep negotiating. So McCarthy headed toward a fourth ballot.

Jordan urged McCarthy’s opponents not to nominate him again. Instead, Rep. Chip Roy of Texas stood instead to nominate Donalds – the very Republican who had defected the day prior.

While the McCarthy opponents did not grow their ranks – a sigh of relief for McCarthy – the California Republican still lost one vote: Rep. Victoria Spartz, an Indiana Republican, who voted present. Spartz told reporters her vote was intended to encourage the two sides to get back to the negotiating table.

There were other signs that some of McCarthy’s backers weren’t willing to stick by him forever. Rep. Ken Buck, a Colorado Republican and House Freedom Caucus member, told CNN that “at some point” McCarthy needed to step aside and let now-Majority Leader Steve Scalise run. “What I’ve asked is that if Kevin can’t get there, that he step aside and give Steve a chance to do it,” Buck said.

The atmosphere on the House floor on Wednesday was buzzing by the second vote. While Tuesday’s session was relatively calm, the opposing factions gathered on the floor to hold talks in real time in between the speaker votes.

At the same time the House was taking vote after vote for speaker, Biden was speaking in Kentucky at an event with Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell promoting the 2021 infrastructure bill McConnell helped pass. Biden’s speech gave the White House – and Senate Republicans – a split screen that laid bare the vast contrast with the House Republican infighting.

“It’s embarrassing for the country,” Biden said of the House chaos.

After the sixth vote ended with an identical outcome as the fifth, the House adjourned for several hours. The break gave the two sides more time to negotiate, and some of the hardliners said they saw some progress.

A group of Republicans decamped to the office of Minnesota Rep. Tom Emmer, the new House majority whip. Bishop said things had changed over the past couple of hours and he was “encouraged” by the talks.

But it wasn’t clear that the meeting would lead to a breakthrough. Gaetz pledged that the McCarthy dissenters could continue to hold votes “until the cherry blossoms fall off the trees.” Boebert said the “boats are burned” when it comes to any future negotiations with McCarthy.

When the House gaveled back into session, Republicans moved to adjourn for the night rather than take another failed speaker vote. GOP leaders were hopeful that the ongoing talks would convince McCarthy’s opponents to vote for adjournment, but with just four votes to spare, the roll-call vote was tight.

All Democrats and four McCarthy opponents voted against adjourning, and the motion was in danger of failing – which would have forced the House to keep voting for speaker. But two Democrats weren’t in attendance, and the House clerk gaveled an end to the vote, 216 to 214.

McCarthy had at least one more day to try to get his detractors to yes.

On Wednesday evening, McCarthy agreed to several key concessions to try to flip at least some of his opponents.

McCarthy had been in talks with Roy, who told GOP leaders he thought he could get 10 holdouts to come along with him. McCarthy also met separately Wednesday evening with freshman members who voted against him.

In perhaps the biggest concession, McCarthy agreed to allow just one member to call for a vote to oust a sitting speaker. McCarthy had initially proposed a five-member threshold, down from current conference rules that require half of the GOP to call for such a vote.

McCarthy also pledged to allow more members of the Freedom Caucus to serve on the Rules Committee and to hold votes for bills that were priorities for the holdouts, including on border security and term limits.

In another sign of a breakthrough, a McCarthy-aligned super PAC, the Congressional Leadership Fund, agreed to not get involved in open primaries in safe seats – one of the demands conservatives had asked for but McCarthy had resisted.

“I think we’re making progress,” McCarthy said Thursday morning as he arrived at the Capitol for a third day of votes.

The GOP dissidents also sounded a positive note. “We’re making some progress,” Bishop told CNN as he was walking into a meeting Thursday morning with other GOP hardliners.

Despite the optimistic chatter Thursday morning, the House gaveled into session at noon without a deal. And while McCarthy’s allies had considered trying to postpone additional votes so a deal could be finalized, McCarthy lacked the votes to adjourn.

Instead, lawmakers followed two tracks into the evening: taking vote after vote on the House floor for speaker, while negotiations continued behind closed doors.

The outcome did not change with each floor vote. While the GOP holdouts shifted who received their anti-McCarthy votes – Boebert nominated Rep. Kevin Hern of Oklahoma on vote No. 9, and Gaetz nominated Trump on the 11th ballot – none shifted to McCarthy’s side.

Twenty-one Republicans didn’t support McCarthy on ballot number seven. Same with eight, nine, 10 and 11.

Behind the scenes, however, the holdouts who weren’t in the “never Kevin” camp continued talking with McCarthy and his allies, inching closer to a deal.

By the early evening Thursday, there was an offer “on paper.” Three of the key negotiators – Emmer, Roy and Donalds – huddled with McCarthy in his ceremonial office, following a session in Emmer’s office for one group to review the written agreement to break the stalemate. Another group huddled in the member’s dining room on the first floor of the Capitol to discuss a separate part of the written deal.

“We’re still working through it,” Roy said leaving Emmer’s office.

“Each meeting is more positive than the last. And that’s a very nice sign,” Rep. Patrick McHenry, a key negotiator on McCarthy’s side, told reporters.

The discussions in Emmer’s office continued late into the evening Thursday in an attempt to get to yes. Chipotle was wheeled in for dinner.

One factor complicating the talks was a handful Republicans were expected to leave Washington due to various family issues. Buck left Thursday afternoon for a planned medical procedure. Rep. Wesley Hunt flew back to Texas to be with his wife and newborn, who had to spend some time in the neonatal intensive care unit.

On Friday morning, House Democrats marked the second anniversary of the January 6, 2021, attack on the steps of the Capitol. Just one Republican attended: Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania.

Republicans huddled once again as a conference for the first time since the heated Tuesday meeting. This time, McCarthy organized a conference call, which could be more easily managed, rather than an in-person session. On the call, McCarthy told his conference that a deal had not yet been finalized but that progress had been made. He specifically thanked Roy, a key holdout, for his role.

Before the House gaveled back into session, McCarthy predicted he would win over some holdovers, though there were still reasons for him to be pessimistic the finish line was in sight.

“I’ll be voting for Byron Donalds,” Norman told CNN on his way to the floor, saying he was still reviewing the emerging agreement.

The 12th vote for speaker began the same as the 11 before it. Rep. Andy Biggs of Arizona was the first Republican to vote against McCarthy. Then Bishop, the next McCarthy opponent in the roll call, rose to cast his vote.

“McCarthy,” Bishop said, prompting his fellow Republicans to leap from their seats with a standing ovation.

Freshman Rep. John Brecheen of Oklahoma was the next to flip, prompting another round of Republican cheers. By the end of the roll call, 14 holdouts, including Norman, had called McCarthy’s name. He was still short of the votes he needed for speaker, but the tide had turned. Only seven McCarthy opponents remained.

On the 13th vote, the GOP leader peeled off one more detractor, Rep. Andy Harris of Maryland. The House voted to adjourn until 10 p.m. ET – providing time both for the two missing McCarthy supporters time to return to Washington and for McCarthy’s allies to turn up the heat on the remaining holdouts.

McCarthy needed two more votes. McCarthy and his allies focused on Rep. Matt Rosendale of Montana and freshman Rep. Eli Crane of Arizona either to support McCarthy or vote present, lowering the vote threshold to win a majority.

There were multiple avenues to a majority and the speakership for McCarthy. The simplest path was to peel off two more votes and hit 218. But if McCarthy’s remaining GOP opponents would not vote for him, the California could still obtain a majority if three of the six detractors voted “present.” In addition to Rosendale and Crane, McCarthy’s allies looked to Boebert as a potential present vote.

Gaetz and Boebert appeared to acknowledge the end of the speaker fight was near before the House returned to session, sitting for a joint interview with Fox’s Sean Hannity and expressing vague optimisms for the rules changes the holdouts had won.

But as the House gaveled back into session, Gaetz went to McCarthy’s senior aide and asked whether the House could adjourn until Monday. Gaetz offer was rejected, leading to the final chaos over the course of the 14th and 15th votes for speaker.

Early Saturday morning, following 14 losses and more than 84 hours after the beginning of the 118th Congress, the House clerk finally announced McCarthy was elected House speaker.

Before the chaos over the final vote, McCarthy earlier Friday had sounded an optimistic note that the lengthy fight over the gavel would actually help Republicans. “So this is the great part. Because it took this long, now we’ve learned how to govern,” McCarthy said. “So now we’ll be able to get the job done.”

Gaetz, however, suggested the historic fight would have a different impact on McCarthy’s speakership. Due to the concessions, Gaetz argued, McCarthy will be governing in a “straitjacket.”

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January 7, 2023
Jack Ma to relinquish control of Ant group | CNN Business

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CNN
—

Chinese billionaire Jack Ma will no longer control Ant Group after the fintech giant’s shareholders agreed to reshape its shareholding structure, according to a statement released by the company on Saturday.

After the adjustment, Ma’s voting rights will fall to 6.2%, according to the statement and CNN calculations.

Before the restructure, Ma possessed more than 50% of voting rights at Ant via Hangzhou Yunbo and two other entities, according to its IPO prospectus filed with the exchanges in 2020.

Ant added in the statement that the voting rights adjustment, a move to make the company’s shareholder structure “more transparent and diversified,” will not result in any change to the economic interests of any shareholders.

Ant said its 10 major shareholders, including Ma, had agreed to no longer act in concert when exercising their voting rights, and would only vote independently, and thus no shareholder would have “sole or joint control over Ant Group.”

The voting rights overhaul came after Chinese regulators pulled the plug on Ant’s $37 billion IPO in November 2020, and ordered the company to restructure its business.

As part of the company’s restructuring, Ant’s consumer finance unit applied for an expansion of its registered capital from $1.2 billion to $2.7 billion. The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission recently approved the application, according to a government notice issued late last week.

After the fund-raising drive, Ant will control half of its key consumer finance unit, while an entity controlled by the Hangzhou city government will own a 10% stake. Hangzhou is where Alibaba and Ant have been headquartered since their inceptions.

Ant Group is a fintech affiliate of Alibaba, both of which were founded by Ma.

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January 7, 2023
Opinion: The deal McCarthy struck was an inexplicable act of self destruction | CNN

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Editor’s Note: Charlie Dent is a former Republican congressman from Pennsylvania who was chair of the House Ethics Committee from 2015 until 2017 and chair of the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Military Construction, Veterans Affairs and Related Agencies from 2015 until 2018. He is a CNN political commentator. The views expressed in this commentary are his own. View more opinion on CNN.

CNN
—

The drawn-out spectacle that was the House speaker election laid bare the fracture and dysfunction within the House Republican conference. Mercifully, it ended after four days and 15 ballots.

But it’s worth noting that the House Speaker vote is the first – and typically the easiest – order of business. Judging by how difficult it was for Kevin McCarthy to secure the necessary votes to become speaker, there are plenty of bitter and protracted fights to come.

After McCarthy flipped a number of his original holdouts, his fate finally came down to Rep. Matt Gaetz, who found himself on the receiving end of ire from his GOP colleagues, including an understandably frustrated Rep. Mike Rogers, who angrily confronted the Florida congressman during the closing moments of the 14th ballot.

While congratulations are in order to Speaker McCarthy, the role has been considerably weakened due to the reported concessions he made during this unseemly political shakedown. Clearly, the hardliners exacted more than a pound of flesh from McCarthy and most of the House GOP conference that will make governing exceedingly difficult.

It begs the question: Is surrendering your way to victory really winning? And when will this appeasement ever end, considering it only makes this extremist faction more powerful?

First, a bit of recent history is in order to explain the dynamics of the House Republican conference.

Anyone surprised by the dysfunction this week should not have been; the House GOP conference has been growing increasingly dysfunctional over the past 13 years. The chaotic machinations witnessed by the world this week are simply a continuation of the dysfunction that began after the Tea Party swept the House in 2010.

Former Speaker John Boehner and Republican Majority Leader Eric Cantor, and later Speaker Paul Ryan, were all tormented by a rejectionist wing of their own party on simple matters of governance. Funding the government, preventing default on the full faith and credit of the United States, providing emergency relief to states and communities ravaged by natural disasters, and reauthorizing essential programs all became dramatic, high stakes fights.

McCarthy was in leadership throughout this period and knew the dangers in dealing with this fringe group bent on sowing chaos in Congress. In fact, some of the same characters behind the chaos this week were among the group that fragged McCarthy in 2015 when he last tried to become speaker (and failed). Torturing the House Republican leadership and holding the GOP agenda hostage has become an ignoble strategy for these rabble rousers.

So here we are in 2023. The malcontents are still digging in – the only difference now is that there is a smaller governing majority. Actually, there really is no GOP governing majority at all, and the world will learn that soon enough.

A paradigm shift is long overdue. Pragmatic and rational Republican members, who bristled at the concessions McCarthy handed to Gaetz and his ilk, must force a course correction and change the dynamics.

In this case, retribution is a dish best served piping hot. It’s time for rational House Republicans to push back and use their leverage – starting with the rules package. They should give the chaos caucus a taste of their own medicine and say no until their reasonable demands are met.

They’ll be doing themselves – and McCarthy – a favor by clawing back some of the rules the speaker agreed to in his misguided deal. Giving in to the hardliners by allowing a single member to call for a vote to oust the speaker is a nonstarter; same for placing more members of the Freedom Caucus on the House Rules Committee.

The hardliners also secured a promise that a McCarthy-aligned super PAC would not intervene in open, safe seat GOP primaries. Why empower fringe elements even further in a way that will only produce more members of Congress who are disinterested in governing? These are inexplicable acts of self-destruction.

It’s time to stop feeding the crocodiles. Rational Republicans must stand, fight and resist. Two can play this game. If the diabolical demands and tactics of the chaos caucus didn’t upset them enough, consider this quote from Gaetz: “I ran out of things I could even imagine to ask for.”

Rational House Republicans need to protect themselves from the deal McCarthy agreed to in his own quest for the coveted gavel. Big legislative battles are looming, and Republicans will need all the procedural tools at their disposal to keep the country on track and out of the proverbial ditch, or worse. Tanking the worst of the proposed rules changes is in order.

And if there aren’t enough GOP votes for a more reasonable rules package, then it’s time to try something novel – bipartisanship. In this case, rational Republicans should reach across the aisle and work with Democrats to secure enough votes for a rules package that rolls back some of the hardliners’ demands.

The House’s ability to function is at stake. America’s authoritarian adversaries around the world point to democracy as outdated and unable to meet the needs of its people. It’s time to prove them wrong by stamping out the extremist elements within our midst who deny the results of free and fair elections and wish to wreak havoc on America’s hallowed temple of democracy.

This is the moment for rational House Republicans to make their stand.

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January 7, 2023
Marcy Kaptur breaks new record in Congress with a familiar warning for the Democratic Party | CNN Politics

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CNN
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Rep. Marcy Kaptur becomes the longest-serving woman in Congress this week after winning her first competitive race in decades. But she sees her work in Washington as far from over.

“I operate in a different way than many of my colleagues simply because of what I have lived,” said the Ohio Democrat, who was the first in her family to graduate from college and represents the kind of Rust Belt community slipping away from her party.

“So why do I stay? It isn’t just to get a title that she stayed the longest. But to use every ounce of strength I have to try to hammer this message: You’re leaving us out. You’re not seeing us.”

First elected in 1982, Kaptur became the longest-serving woman in the US House of Representatives in 2018. But now she’s breaking the record of former Maryland Sen. Barbara Mikulski, a fellow Democrat who retired at the end of 2016 after 40 years in Congress. Throughout that time, Kaptur has urged her party – especially leadership, which has often been dominated by lawmakers from the coasts – to wake up to the plight of “industrial and agricultural America,” not only for the survival of the party, but also for democracy.

In an interview with CNN late last year, Kaptur recalled approaching a “very high-ranking member of the House” and warning that the federal government needed to invest in the middle of the country. “We are going to have political unrest. I even used a stronger word. I said even perhaps fascism,” she said.

That was before the January 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol.

Kaptur won a 21st term in November in a district that was redrawn from heavily Democrat to more Republican, defeating an election denier who was at the Capitol on January 6.

J.R. Majewski has said he went to protest peacefully and left when “it got ugly,” but the House GOP’s campaign arm eventually cut off spending for him in the district after revelations about him misrepresenting his military record. Kaptur, although she faced criticism from some constituents that she’d been in Washington too long, won by 13 points.

“I view myself like the Statue of Freedom on top of the Capitol. It is a woman and she looks east to the rising sun,” said Kaptur, who counts among her proudest achievements the 17-year struggle for the construction of the World War II memorial. It was one of her constituents, a letter carrier from the village of Berkey, who pushed her to introduce legislation for it.

Kaptur left a doctorate program at MIT to run for Congress, having already worked for President Jimmy Carter as a domestic policy adviser. She was one of just 24 women in Congress when she arrived. Today there are 149.

“So that is really consequential progress – in one generation,” Kaptur said of the record number of women serving this year. She wrote a book in 1996 about women in Congress in the 20th century, joking that she’s been too busy to update it.

But having more women in Congress is less important to Kaptur than where the women are from and the kinds of communities they represent.

“As a woman, let me just say, if you come from the part of America where I do – and I don’t just mean geographically, but I mean economically – we still don’t have a majority.”

“What’s the difference between a very rich woman and man in Congress?” asked Kaptur, who lives in the same Toledo house she grew up in. “People like us, we’re there. We’re there. We are radishes in a salad. … But we’re important voices because what we have experienced enlightens the dialogue.”

She fought for years to get a spot on the House Appropriations Committee – eventually going up against Nancy Pelosi. “I was so offended,” Kaptur said, casting it as the “fight of a hardscrabble working-class person” against a former head of the Democratic Party of California.

Kaptur has occasionally been at odds with Pelosi in leadership races – even briefly challenging her for party leader in 2002 – although the two women have recently praised and supported each other. Kaptur’s voting record on abortion has also evolved to be more in line with the national party.

When the Ohio Democrat got to the Appropriations Committee in the early 1990s, she was one of only three women. Democratic then-Rep. Lindy Boggs of Louisiana had to tell her to stand up when addressing the panel.

She’s unsuccessfully sought to lead the committee – losing out to women from more coastal states. But in 2019, she became the first woman to chair the subcommittee on energy and water development and her bill to create the Great Lakes Authority – a federal regional commission to address environmental and economic issues – recently passed as part of the omnibus spending package.

Still, she said, it can be hard to be heard.

This Capitol Hill duo has worked on family issues for nearly 30 years

“When you’re not in leadership, you don’t have a seat at the table – maybe you have your subcommittee or your committee, something like that – but it almost is impenetrable,” she said of the institution. “And the American people know it. They feel it and that’s why they’re becoming radical in their political expressions.”

But she credits President Joe Biden for visiting Lorain, a city in Northeast Ohio, last year. “That is unheard of. Joe Biden is trying. He’s in a party that can’t see places like Lorain and Cleveland and Toledo.”

She laments the defeat of Democrat Tim Ryan, whom she backed in last year’s Ohio Senate race, and blames the national party for long ignoring disaffected voters who ultimately backed the Republican nominee.

“So my struggle is unending. And I hope God gives me the years, maybe I can pound some of this sense into the institution, but I don’t know,” Kaptur said.

And then, with a laugh, later added, “I gotta stay as long as Mitch McConnell.”

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January 7, 2023
How an American hero ‘lit his legacy on fire’ | CNN Politics

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Watch “Giuliani: What Happened to America’s Mayor?” on CNN at 9 p.m. ET/PT on Sunday, January 8.

CNN
—

The evolution of Rudy Giuliani is an epic tale. A celebrated crime fighter who brought down mafia bosses and put Wall Street crooks behind bars, he traded on trust and integrity to prove Republicans could still get elected as mayors of big cities.

His empathy and leadership on 9/11 in New York City made him a global figure and a bona fide hero.

How that man, who used to get standing ovations whenever he entered a room, morphed into former President Donald Trump’s conspiracy theory lackey peddling lies about the 2020 election is the subject of the new CNN Original Series, “Giuliani: What Happened to America’s Mayor?”

The images of Giuliani’s early success paired with his later disgrace are striking and sad.

I reached out to one key voice in the series, CNN political analyst John Avlon, who was Giuliani’s chief speech writer during his second term as mayor, including on 9/11, and later worked for Giuliani’s presidential campaign.

Excerpts of our conversation about Avlon’s perceptions of the series and what happened to his old boss are below.

WOLF: The Giuliani of today is at the fulcrum of so many of Trump’s problems. Giuliani’s dirt digging in Ukraine contributed to the first Trump impeachment. Giuliani helped enable the election denialism that led to the second Trump impeachment. How would you describe his place in Trump’s political history?

AVLON: I think that among some hard-core Trump true believers, Rudy will be scapegoated as the source of Trump’s multiple problems. I think that’s an attempt to evade Trump’s responsibility for the chaos he himself caused.

But you have got to hand it to him – Rudy is the first presidential lawyer whose actions contributed to not one, but two impeachments. That’s a special place in American history. And unfortunately, I think this tragic last chapter in his life will overwhelm the very positive, constructive role he played in different chapters of his life.

I don’t think it’ll ultimately eclipse 9/11 and his leadership on that day. But he lit his legacy on fire in service of Donald Trump and got nothing in return except disgrace, ignominy, (possible) disbarment and a gutting of his personal fortune.

WOLF: I think a lot of people will be surprised to learn about those earlier chapters. He’s this prosecutor who brought down mafia families and insider traders. He’s the mayor who cleaned up the city. How does that guy become the conspiracy theory pusher?

AVLON: That’s, to a large extent, what the documentary is about. I think it is important for people to remember he was a leading lawyer of his generation, with an objective record of success in terms of dismantling the mob and taking on Wall Street.

That alone would have made him a major figure in contemporary American politics. But then what he did as mayor was absolutely remarkable. George Will called it America’s most successful case of conservative governance.

I worked for him in City Hall in his second term as chief speechwriter, and if you just look at the data of what he did, it’s remarkable:

He cut murders by 68%, crime by 56%.

He turned a $2 billion deficit into a multibillion-dollar surplus.

He cut taxes for New Yorkers.

He improved the quality of life.

I think his policies ushered in an era of resurgence for urban America. In New York City, I think 20 years of Rudy and (Michael) Bloomberg together really helped turn around the city in fundamental ways.

The tragedy – and I use the term advisedly because it’s self-inflicted, but it is tragic – is that the guy who believed that the law is a search for the truth ended up trying to defend his client in the court of public opinion using the law in pursuit of a lie.

I think that he got caught in a right-wing echo chamber ecosystem, where he was totally invested in an alternate reality that was fundamentally hyperpartisan and therefore they couldn’t even conceive of losing fairly.

And so at the end of the day, they tried to overturn an election, overturn our democracy on the basis of a pretty self-evident lie with no evidence.

I’m not going to try to diagnose how he’s changed. But the filter in the judgment of the man I knew and was proud to work for is fundamentally off.

WOLF: The perception is that he has changed as a person, but there are these interesting moments in the documentary that presage the Rudy of today. We see a riot of police officers at City Hall in 1992 that is compared with the riot at the Capitol. In ’89, he suggested but did not pursue the idea that there had been fraudulent voting. Has he actually changed, or has he just been uncovered?

AVLON: Robert Caro has a great line about how power doesn’t corrupt, power reveals. I’m always more inclined to believe the adage that as people grow older, they get more so. There are moments, and the documentary makes a lot of them, to draw a narrative connection between the police riot and January 6th. The person I knew and worked for – those incidents did not define him on a day-to-day basis.

Character counts. One of the things for good or for ill about Rudy, and something that I learned on 9/11, is you don’t have to be perfect to be a hero. Rudy was not one of these politicians who pretended to be perfect.

He understood that he was a flawed human being and was actively interested in figuring out his flaws and what motivated him in certain low times. He was someone who thought philosophically about politics.

If you talked to him about his position on abortion, for example, he would, in an unpretentious way, start talking about St. Thomas Aquinas, the debate about when life begins.

He was also the kind of human who thought about becoming a priest and ended up becoming a prosecutor. But I think there has been a change in his judgment.

The Trump orbit tends to attract people who are not at their best in terms of stability. Rudy found attention and relevance at the expense of his legacy and reputation.

WOLF: It was instructive for me to revisit just how much of a national hero he was after 9/11. How do you think that specifically affected him? You saw it happen.

AVLON: First of all, there is a misperception that’s partly partisan nature that Rudy was deeply unpopular before 9/11. That is statistically not true.

That’s not to say he wasn’t controversial and divisive at times. What he would say is that when you’re turning around a ship at sea, you’ve got to throw your shoulder to the wheel.

9/11 was a classic case of the man meeting the moment. The New York Observer, which was often critical of Rudy, said that he distinguished himself almost overnight as New York’s greatest mayor.

He became seen as sort of a modern-day Churchill and that was because of his instinctive response to an unprecedented massive attack.

And it was also because of his empathy and his honesty. He was able to channel grief in a constructive direction. He was resolute. He said the number of people who died was more than any of us can bear, and he was an inspiration to a fundamentally shaken and horrified world.

And it was extraordinary. For months and years afterward, he would be greeted with standing ovations when he walked in the room.

I think it’s a little too simple to say that creates a presumption of that kind of reception wherever you go. But I think what it does is highlight how tragic the fall has been.

And if he had kept his credibility as sort of a centrist Republican senior statesman who was tough on the issues that a lot of people care about – law and order, fiscal discipline, etc., including on social issues – he could have played a major stabilizing force within the Republican Party.

He could have been somebody who parks and statues and streets would have been named after across the nation, because of his example of leadership on that day, which was the apotheosis of his career. That was a reflection of the true mettle and character.

WOLF: You talked about him being a Republican in a Democratic city. He wasn’t the only big city Republican mayor. Los Angeles had one at the time. Republicans put up John McCain for president in 2008. Mitt Romney tried to be severely conservative, but these days he’s just about as moderate as Republicans get. Do you think Republicans are interested in moving back into that middle ground and governing a big city as opposed to just using it as a foil for their national ambitions?

AVLON: It’s a great and important question. If you take the biggest possible step back at America’s historical political divisions, you’ll see that much bigger than Democrat / Republican or liberal / conservative is urban vs. rural.

We need urban Republicans and rural Democrats to help bridge divides. When there were progressive Republicans back in the day, particularly in the Northeast, and conservative Democrats, there were a ton of problems. But you could always find governing majorities within divided government. You could cobble together coalition.

The decline of urban Republicans and rural Democrats is enormously disruptive for the country in terms of further inflaming hyperpartisanship and polarization and the kind of distrust that already exists culturally kind of in our America.

Republicans should care about playing in urban areas, and Democrats should care a hell of a lot more about playing in rural areas in red states.

WOLF: We tend to think that it was proximity to Trump that radicalized Rudy, but there’s a riff in the documentary about Giuliani’s visceral reaction to the Barack Obama presidency, similar to how Trump reacted to Obama’s presidency, actually. I wondered how you felt about seeing that portion.

AVLON: After his presidential campaign, he becomes more and more sort of isolated in that bubble. That right-wing ecosystem. It’s a form of acculturation where the hyperpartisan environment becomes kind of assumed.

It’s the places you’re giving speeches. It’s the television networks you watch. You spend all your time with partisans. It isolates you from the act of responsibility of governing and uniting a very diverse city – even certainly he had challenges with that.

I think that his animus toward Hillary Clinton and the Clintons was one of the things that drove him to embrace Donald Trump late in the (2016) campaign.

By the way, he never endorsed (former New Jersey Gov.) Chris Christie or (former Florida Gov.) Jeb Bush, but he really was inclined to support either of them first, because they’re the kind of Republicans that he was.

After he made that comment about Obama, I believe it was a fundraiser for (then-Wisconsin Gov.) Scott Walker, he actually called me at home to explain himself. (Read CNN’s report from 2015, when Giuliani said he didn’t think Obama “loves America.”)

It was strange, because I think we just had our first son, and Margaret and I met working on his presidential campaign. (Avlon is married to the CNN political commentator and host of PBS’ “Firing Line,” Margaret Hoover). And he called me to, like, explain what he meant.

I thought it was revealing of the right-wing media he had been ingesting, and also that somewhere there was a degree of guilt that he felt the need to explain himself to me, who worked for him before, a long time ago.

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January 7, 2023
Michigan attorney general re-opens criminal probe into fake electors for Trump | CNN Politics

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CNN
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Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel has re-opened her criminal investigation into fake electors who signed a certificate claiming former President Donald Trump won the state in the 2020 election when he did not, she said on Friday.

Nessel, a Democrat who previously referred the matter to federal prosecutors, told reporters that she is “a little worried” that more than a year has passed since she referred cases related to the false slates of electors to the Justice Department and believes there is “clear evidence” to support charges against the fake electors from Michigan.

“What we have seen from the January 6 committee is an overwhelming amount of evidence. I thought that there was already a substantial amount of evidence in that case. But now, there is just clear evidence to support charges against those 16 false electors, at least in our state,” Nessel said.

“Quite candidly, yes, we are re-opening our investigation because I don’t know what the federal government plans to do,” she added.

CNN has reached out to the Justice Department for comment.

Nessel said last January that her office had been evaluating charges related to the effort to put forward a slate of fake electors from Michigan. At the time, Nessel said publicly she was “confident we have enough evidence to charge” people under state law for “forgery of a public record,” and other crimes. But ultimately, she decided to ask the Justice Department to investigate.

On Friday, the second anniversary of the January 6 attack on the US Capitol in Washington, DC, Nessel confirmed the state investigation has been re-opened, noting it’s unclear how the Justice Department probe is proceeding.

Witness emails, text messages and testimony from the House January 6 committee – all of which are now in the possession of DOJ prosecutors working under special counsel Jack Smith, show Trump’s role in pushing alternate slates of electors, pressing battleground state officials to overturn the election results, attempting to replace the acting attorney general with someone who would embrace election fraud claims, and laying the early groundwork to call his followers to the US Capitol.

The committee’s investigation has given a fuller and more nuanced picture of the interconnected plots that the DOJ has been investigating, including the scheme to put forward slates of illegitimate Trump electors from battleground states that Joe Biden won to pressure then-Vice President Mike Pence and Congress to halt the certification of the results.

That includes the Trump team’s efforts in Michigan, as newly released testimony from state officials revealed new details about the involvement of the former president’s campaign and legal team.

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January 6, 2023
Stabenow’s retirement gives Republicans an opening in Michigan. But will they take it? | CNN Politics

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CNN
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Longtime Michigan Sen. Debbie Stabenow is calling it quits and will not stand for reelection in 2024.

At a minimum, her decision makes Democrats’ already difficult job of retaining Senate control in 2024 even harder. Senators caucusing with the party hold 23 of the 34 seats expected to be up for reelection. Seven of them represent states Trump won at least once. This includes Michigan.

Sen. Gary Peters – the last Democrat not named Stabenow to run for Senate in Michigan – won reelection by less than 2 points in 2020.

Stabenow likely would have made Democrats’ job easier had she opted to run again. After narrowly unseating Republican Sen. Spencer Abraham in 2000, she has won reelection by at least 5 points in three subsequent contests.

But Democrats now have a battle on the horizon in another state that flipped from Donald Trump in 2016 to Joe Biden four years later. Beyond Michigan, Democrats face a messy situation in Arizona with Sen. Kyrsten Sinema becoming an independent.

With 51 senators now caucusing with Democrats, losses in Arizona and Michigan alone could be enough to flip the chamber to Republicans.

Yet, Republicans’ ability to flip Michigan will be highly dependent on two important questions.

First, what type of party do GOP primary voters want?

And second, will Republicans in key Great Lakes battleground states continue to outperform national results if Trump isn’t on the ballot?

In 2022, we saw GOP primary voters across the map select nominees who ended up being rejected by the general election electorate. Republicans underperformed the partisan fundamentals in a number of key Senate races, allowing Democrats to maintain control of the chamber while narrowly losing the House.

There were several examples of this in Michigan last year. While there was no Senate race, the state held elections for key statewide offices, including governor, attorney general and secretary of state. The Republican candidates for these positions promoted false claims that Biden had not won the 2020 election legitimately.

The result was that none of them came close to winning any of these races. This was most evident in the gubernatorial contest, where Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer turned what should have been a close race against Republican Tudor Dixon into a double-digit blowout.

If Republicans are going to want to compete in Michigan in 2024 – or any swing-state Senate races in two years – primary voters will likely need to choose more mainstream candidates than they did in 2022.

Of course, it won’t just be about individual candidates. It will be about regional trends as well.

One of the biggest electoral changes in the past decade has been the Republican breakthrough in Great Lakes states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. They went from voting to the left of the nation in the 2012 presidential election to voting to the nation’s right in 2016 and 2020. This was in large part because of Trump’s appeal to White voters without a college degree.

But Trump may not be on the ballot in 2024, and it’s unclear whether the pro-Republican trend in these Great Lakes states will continue without him.

Look at what happened last year. Michigan voted to the left of the nation in US House races. Pennsylvania and Wisconsin voted basically in line with the nation, once you account for uncontested races.

Indeed, it would not be surprising to see a shift in how states vote relative to the nation if Trump is out of the picture. This has happened every eight years in recent cycles (e.g., 1976, 1984, 1992, 2000, 2008 and 2016).

And that would make Democrats less vulnerable in Michigan than you might think, even without Stabenow as their nominee. Keep in mind that Democrats haven’t lost a Senate race in the Wolverine State since 1994.

A return to the pre-Trump era in Michigan and other key Great Lakes states may also mean that the advantage Republicans have held in the Electoral College relative to the popular vote in the two most recent presidential elections may not materialize in 2024.

That’s something Democrats would certainly welcome going into 2024 after one of the closest midterm cycles of the past century.

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January 6, 2023
Michigan Sen. Debbie Stabenow won’t seek reelection in 2024 | CNN Politics

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Washington
CNN
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Sen. Debbie Stabenow will not seek reelection in 2024, the longtime Michigan Democrat said Thursday, opening up a Senate seat in a key swing state.

“Inspired by a new generation of leaders, I have decided to pass the torch in the U.S. Senate. I am announcing today that I will not seek re-election and will leave the U.S. Senate at the end of my term on January 3, 2025,” Stabenow, 72, said in a statement.

Stabenow’s decision comes just months after Democrats held on to control of the Senate in the midterm elections. Senate Democrats were already facing a tough map in 2024, but Stabenow’s decision to retire puts another seat in a crucial swing state in play.

Stabenow, who previously served in the Michigan state House and state Senate, first won election to Congress in 1996, winning a swing seat in Central Michigan. After two terms in the House, she won election to the Senate in 2000, unseating Republican incumbent Spencer Abraham. In the Senate, she rose to become the current No. 3 Democrat in the chamber as chair of her caucus’s Policy and Communications Committee. She also currently chairs the Senate Agriculture Committee.

“No one embodies the true Michigan spirit more than Debbie Stabenow,” Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said in a statement. “From the state legislature to the House of Representatives, and for the last two decades in the United States Senate, Debbie has made a difference for Michiganders every step along the way.”

Democrats are defending 23 of the 34 Senate seats up for reelection next year, including three seats in states that backed former President Donald Trump by at least 8 points in 2020: West Virginia, Montana and Ohio.

Besides Michigan, the party is also defending seats in other battleground states such as Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

In the wake of Stabenow’s announcement, Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin is closely looking at running for Senate, a source close to the congresswoman’s team told CNN.

Other potential candidates for the seat include Republican Rep. Bill Huizenga and Rep.-elect John James and Democratic Reps. Dan Kildee and Debbie Dingell and Democratic state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, who drew national attention last year in a floor speech pushing back against anti-LGBTQ attacks from a Republican colleague. James lost a closer-than-expected race to Stabenow in 2018 and then narrowly lost a bid for the state’s other Senate seat in 2020, before winning election to the House in November from a swing seat north of Detroit.

Two high-profile Democrats took their names out of contention Thursday for Stabenow’s seat.

A spokesman for Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who was reelected to a second term in November, confirmed that the Democrat will not run for Senate in 2024.

Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said in a statement to CNN that he is “fully focused” on his current role and “not seeking any other job.”

The former mayor of South Bend, Indiana, moved last year to Michigan, where the parents of his husband, Chasten, live.

A spokesperson for Senate Democrats’ campaign arm expressed confidence Thursday in holding Stabenow’s seat.

“In 2022, Michigan Democrats won resounding statewide victories, and we are confident Democrats will hold this Senate seat in 2024,” David Bergstein of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee said in a statement.

Mike Berg, communications director for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said that the committee is going to “aggressively target this seat in 2024.”

“Senate Democrats don’t even have a campaign chair yet and they are already dealing with a major retirement,” he said in a statement.

This story has been updated with additional information.

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January 5, 2023
Jair Bolsonaro Fast Facts | CNN

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CNN
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Here is a look at the life of Jair Bolsonaro, former president of Brazil.

Birth date: March 21, 1955

Birth place: Campinas, Brazil

Birth name: Jair Messias Bolsonaro

Father: Percy Geraldo Bolsonaro, dentist

Mother: Olinda Bonturi Bolsonaro

Marriage: Michelle Bolsonaro; Ana Cristina Valle (divorced); Rogéria Bolsonaro (divorced)

Children: with Michelle Bolsonaro: Laura; with Ana Cristina Valle: Jair Renan; with Rogéria Bolsonaro: Flavio, Carlos and Eduardo

Education: Agulhas Negras Military Academy, 1977

Military: Army, Captain

Religion: Roman Catholic

A conservative provocateur, Bolsonaro has a predilection for making inflammatory statements. His rhetorical targets include women and the LGBTQ community. In 2003, he told a congresswoman that she was not worthy of being raped. During a 2011 interview with Playboy magazine, Bolsonaro said he would be incapable of loving a gay son. He has expressed a sense of nostalgia for Brazil’s past as a military dictatorship.

Bolsonaro served seven terms as a congressman in the Chamber of Deputies. While in congress, his priorities included protecting the rights of citizens to own firearms, promoting Christian values and getting tough on crime. In 2017, he said, “A policeman who doesn’t kill isn’t a policeman.”

Bolsonaro changed his party affiliation numerous times, ultimately campaigning for president as a member of the Social Liberal Party.

When Bolsonaro took office, Brazil was suffering through a prolonged period of economic malaise and rising insecurity. His ascent was preceded by a corruption scandal that rocked political and financial institutions. During his inaugural address, Bolsonaro vowed to transform Brazil into a “strong and booming country.”

1986 – Bolsonaro writes an opinion column for the magazine Veja that criticizes the Brazilian Army’s pay system. He is subsequently disciplined for insubordination.

1989-1991 – Councilman for Rio de Janeiro.

1991-2018 – Congressman representing Rio de Janeiro in the Chamber of Deputies.

July 22, 2018 – Bolsonaro announces he is running for president.

August 15, 2018 – Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, a former president of Brazil, announces he has submitted the necessary paperwork to register as the Workers’ Party candidate to run against Bolsonaro. Lula da Silva campaigns from prison, where he is serving a 12-year sentence for corruption.

September 1, 2018 – Brazil’s top electoral court bars Lula da Silva from running for reelection while incarcerated. Ultimately, a former mayor of São Paulo named Fernando Haddad steps in as the Workers’ Party candidate.

September 6, 2018 – Bolsonaro is stabbed in the stomach during a campaign rally. He spends more than three weeks in the hospital recovering.

October 7, 2018 – Voters cast ballots in the first round of elections. Although Bolsonaro wins more votes than Haddad, he doesn’t surpass the 50% threshold. A runoff is set for later in the month.

October 28, 2018 – Bolsonaro wins the runoff. The final tally shows Bolsonaro with 55.13% and Haddad with 44.87%.

January 1, 2019 – Bolsonaro is sworn into office. On the same day, he issues a series of executive orders. One order could potentially strip away many LGBTQ civil rights protections by eliminating LGBTQ issues from the list of matters handled by the Ministry of Women, Family and Human Rights. Another order gives the Agriculture Ministry the authority to designate indigenous lands, paving the way for agricultural development in areas that were previously off limits.

January 15, 2019 – Signs an executive order temporarily eliminating a regulation that limits firearms purchases only to individuals who provide a justification for owning a gun. The regulation gave police discretion to approve or deny gun sales.

January 28, 2019 – Officials say Bolsonaro has undergone successful surgery to remove a colostomy bag he was fitted with after being stabbed four months ago.

February 28, 2019 – Bolsonaro meets with Venezuelan opposition leader and self-proclaimed interim president, Juan Guaidó in Brasilia. During a joint news conference, Bolsonaro pledges Brazil’s support to help ensure “democracy is re-established in Venezuela.”

May 3, 2019 – A spokesman for Bolsonaro announces that the president has canceled a trip to New York, where he was set to be honored with a Person of the Year award from the Brazilian-American Chamber of Commerce. The trip was scrapped amid a political backlash. The event’s original host venue, the American Museum of Natural History canceled and some corporate sponsors dropped out. New York Mayor Bill de Blasio had called Bolsonaro “a dangerous man.”

May 7, 2019 – Bolsonaro signs an executive order relaxing gun control restrictions. The executive order makes it easier for guns to be imported and boosts the amount of ammunition an individual can purchase annually.

July 11, 2019 – During a news conference, Bolsonaro says that he wants his son, Eduardo Bolsonaro, to serve as ambassador to the United States. He says that Eduardo is friendly with the children of US President Donald Trump.

August 23, 2019 – Bolsonaro announces a plan to send army troops to fight wildfires sweeping through the Amazon rainforest.

August 26, 2019 – At the G7 summit in France, French President Emmanuel Macron announces a $20 million emergency fund to help Brazil with the fires. Bolsonaro responds that he cannot accept Macron’s “intentions behind the idea of an ‘alliance’ of the G7 countries to ‘save’ the Amazon, as if we were a colony or no man’s land.” The dispute devolves after a Facebook user posts a meme ridiculing the appearance of Macron’s wife on Bolsonaro’s page and the president jokes, “Don’t humiliate the guy…haha.”

September 8, 2019 – Bolsonaro undergoes a hernia operation to treat complications from prior surgeries conducted as he recovered from a stab wound.

December 24, 2019 – Tells the Band TV network that he was hospitalized overnight after falling in the presidential palace December 23. He says he had brief memory loss, but that he has recovered.

April 19, 2020 – Bolsonaro joins a rally in the country’s capital, where protesters called for an end to coronavirus quarantine measures and some urged military intervention to shut down Congress and the Supreme Court. He later defends his participation, saying that he was not calling for military action against the country’s other branches of government.

June 23, 2020 – Bolsonaro is ordered by a federal judge in Brasilia to wear a face mask in public or face a fine. The decision extends to all government employees in the Federal District, where the capital Brasilia is located.

July 7, 2020 – Bolsonaro announces he has tested positive for Covid-19, following months of downplaying the virus.

March 16, 2021 – A Brazilian court orders Bolsonaro to pay damages to a journalist after he made remarks that questioned her credibility.

April 27, 2021 – Brazil’s Senate launches an inquiry Tuesday into the federal government’s response to Covid-19.

July 14, 2021 – Bolsonaro is admitted to the hospital to investigate the cause of persistent hiccups that are leading to abdominal pains, according to Brazil’s Special Secretariat for Social Communication.

December 3, 2021 – Brazil’s Supreme Court orders an investigation into Bolsonaro’s false claim that people who have been vaccinated against Covid-19 may have a higher risk of contracting AIDS. The inquiry is launched in response to a request by the country’s parliamentary commission which has been investigating Bolsonaro’s government’s response to the pandemic.

January 3, 2022 – Bolsonaro is admitted to a hospital with a blockage in his intestine, the latest medical issue linked to his 2018 stabbing.

June 29, 2022 – A Brazilian court rules that Bolsonaro must pay “moral damages” of 35,000 reais (approximately $6,700) to a Brazilian journalist after making remarks with sexual innuendo about her in 2020.

October 2, 2022 – In the presidential election, Bolsonaro finishes with 43.2% versus Lula da Silva’s 48.4%. Either candidate needed to surpass 50% to be elected in the first round of voting, so the two will face each other in a runoff on October 30.

October 30, 2022 – Bolsonaro loses his bid for a second term, after receiving 49.1% of the vote against Lula da Silva, who wins with 50.9%.

November 22, 2022 – Bolsonaro files a petition with Brazil election authorities formally contesting the results of the presidential vote, alleging that some voting machines had malfunctioned and any votes cast through them should be annulled. The petition is rejected the following day.

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January 5, 2023
House adjourns for second day without electing a speaker with McCarthy’s bid in peril | CNN Politics

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CNN
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Kevin McCarthy suffered yet another stinging defeat on Wednesday as he lost in the sixth round of voting to elect a speaker – a major blow that increasingly imperils his bid and heightens uncertainty over whether he can still secure the gavel or if a viable candidate will emerge as an alternative.

The House voted Wednesday evening to adjourn until 12 p.m. ET on Thursday as Republicans scramble to find a path forward.

The House GOP majority has been stuck at a contentious stalemate amid opposition to McCarthy from a group of conservatives. The fight, which began on the first day of the 118th Congress, has thrown the new House GOP majority into chaos and undercut the party’s agenda.

The House will continue to be paralyzed until this standoff is resolved. The situation has grown dire for McCarthy’s political future as Republican allies are beginning to fear that the House GOP leader may not be able to pull off his gamble for speaker if the fight goes much longer.

It’s not at all clear whether McCarthy and his allies will be able to lock down the votes – and the longer the fight drags on, the more imperiled his speakership bid has become. But there were signs Wednesday that negotiations are progressing.

In a major concession, first reported by CNN, McCarthy has agreed to propose a rules change that would allow just one member to call for a vote to oust a sitting speaker, according to two sources familiar with the matter. McCarthy had initially proposed a five-member threshold, down from current conference rules that require half of the GOP to call for such a vote. Many members had been concerned about giving in to the far-right on this matter since it could weaken the speakership and cause chaos in the ranks.

In two more concessions, he’s also agreed to allow for more members of the Freedom Caucus to serve on the powerful House Rules Committee, which dictates how and whether bills come to the floor, and to vote on a handful of bills that are priorities for the holdouts, including proposing term limits on members and a border security plan.

Nothing is final, however, since the negotiations are ongoing.

Republican sources say that even if McCarthy’s offer is accepted, it would still not get him the 218 votes he needs to be speaker. While these concessions could attract some new support, other opponents have raised different concerns that have yet to be fully addressed.

After a series of failed speaker votes earlier in the day, the House adjourned for several hours as Republicans continued talks.

Texas Rep. Chip Roy, one of the conservatives who has voted against McCarthy’s speakership bid, told GOP leaders that he thinks he can get 10 holdouts to come along if these ongoing negotiations pan out, according to GOP sources familiar with the internal discussions, and that there are additional detractors who may be willing to vote “present.”

Sources said the talks Wednesday between McCarthy allies and holdouts have been the most productive and serious ones to date. And in one sign of a breakthrough, a McCarthy-aligned super PAC agreed to not play in open Republican primaries in safe seats – one of the big demands that conservatives had asked for but that McCarthy had resisted until this point.

“We’ve had more discussions in the last two days as a body sitting there, than we’ve done in frickin’ four years,” Roy said when leaving the Capitol Wednesday night.

Still, even if these negotiations prove successful and 10 lawmakers do flip to McCarthy’s column – which is far from certain – that doesn’t get McCarthy to the 218 votes to win the speakership, so he would still have more work to do.

Incoming House Majority Whip Tom Emmer said Wednesday evening that the negotiations over the next speaker have been “very, very constructive.”

“There were a whole bunch of members that were involved in this and there are some folks now that are sitting down and talking about that discussion to see where they want to go with it next,” the Minnesota Republican said.

House Republicans hold 222 seats in the new Congress, so for McCarthy to reach 218, he can only afford to lose four GOP votes. His obstacle is that he faces a small but determined contingent of hardline conservatives who have so far been successful in denying him the votes to secure the gavel.

The group has used the leverage they have in the razor-thin Republican majority to extract concessions. McCarthy has already given in to a number of their demands, including making it increasingly easier to topple the sitting speaker, but so far his efforts have not been enough.

The House convened on Wednesday to continue voting after three rounds of votes on Tuesday. McCarthy has come up short each time, failing to hit the majority threshold needed to secure the speakership.

As the votes stretched on Tuesday, the situation appeared to become even more dire for McCarthy, as the vote count in opposition to his speaker bid grew.

The tally for the first ballot in the speaker vote was 203 for McCarthy, with 19 Republicans voting for other candidates. The tally for the second ballot was 203 votes for McCarthy with 19 votes for GOP Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio. In the third round of voting, there were 202 votes for McCarthy and 20 votes for Jordan, with Rep. Byron Donalds joining the 19 GOP lawmakers who had voted against McCarthy in the first two rounds.

It was the first time an election for speaker went to multiple ballots since 1923.

“My vote yesterday was basically to break a deadlock, because we were deadlocked, and we were not getting anywhere,” Donalds, a Florida Republican, said Wednesday on “CNN This Morning.” “Right now, (McCarthy) doesn’t have a pathway to get there. If that reemerges, yeah, I can be there, that’s fine, but what’s necessary now is that Republicans come together and find a way to elect a speaker.”

In the fourth round of voting, 20 Republicans voting together for Donalds as the group switched their collective support from Jordan to Donalds. Rep. Victoria Spartz of Indiana voted present, lowering McCarthy’s threshold to 217.

Spartz told CNN she did so because she wanted to allow for more negotiations within the conference to address the concerns of the 20 members.

The final tally for the fifth vote was again 201 votes for McCarthy, 20 for Donalds and one present vote.

The final tally for the sixth vote was the same: 201 for McCarthy, 20 for Donalds and one present vote.

Trump is watching closely as the dynamic plays out on Capitol Hill and his public support has been a key focus of McCarthy’s efforts.

Two GOP sources familiar with the matter said McCarthy’s allies were panicking on Tuesday after the former president gave a tepid response to NBC News when asked about his support for McCarthy. The former president also declined to issue a statement Monday reiterating his endorsement of McCarthy despite a behind-the-scenes effort from several McCarthy allies to get Trump to do so, two sources said.

One close McCarthy ally then began working behind the scenes to do clean-up duty and started pressing for Trump to put out a statement clarifying his support. McCarthy and Trump then connected by phone, where McCarthy said Trump expressed he was still committed to backing him. Trump put out a strong endorsement on Truth Social Wednesday morning, imploring Republicans not to “TURN A GREAT TRIUMPH INTO A GIANT & EMBARRASSING DEFEAT” and urging them to vote for McCarthy.

Although Trump’s statement might not move the needle among the fiercest McCarthy foes, one of the sources said McCarthy world was worried about looking “weak” and like he was bleeding support, so they felt it was important to reverse the narrative.

Gaetz, one of the House Republicans opposing McCarthy’s bid for speaker, dismissed Trump’s latest effort to help the California Republican as “sad.”

“This changes neither my view of McCarthy nor Trump nor my vote,” Gaetz said in a statement to Fox News Digital on Wednesday, shortly after Trump came to McCarthy’s defense in the Truth Social post.

Long a staunch Trump ally, Gaetz’s refusal to bow to Trump’s desire for a McCarthy speakership raises new questions about the former president’s dwindling influence over Republicans in the midst of his third presidential campaign.

“If Matt Gaetz is ignoring you, that’s not a good sign,” said one Trump ally who is involved with his 2024 campaign.

Trump has been making calls on McCarthy’s behalf over the last 24 hours in an attempt to break the conservative blockade against him, this person said, but his efforts have so far been fruitless.

One lawmaker who spoke with Trump late Tuesday suggested the former president should run for speaker himself, according to a person briefed on the call. Trump demurred and continued to push this person to support McCarthy, claiming that he would be a solid “America First” supporter.

This story and headline have been updated with additional developments.

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January 4, 2023
Israel’s rightward shift leaves its new Arab allies in an awkward spot | CNN
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Editor’s Note: A version of this story appears in today’s Meanwhile in the Middle East newsletter, CNN’s three-times-a-week look inside the region’s biggest stories. Sign up here.

Abu Dhabi, UAE
CNN
—

It was a rare embrace between one of Israel’s most controversial politicians and an Arab ambassador. Itamar Ben Gvir and the United Arab Emirates’ Ambassador to Israel Mohamed Al Khaja clutched each other’s hands in a warm greeting in Tel Aviv in early December.

“Birds of a feather flock together,” wrote a columnist in Israel’s left-leaning Haaretz newspaper, arguing that the Abraham Accords, which saw Israel gain recognition from four Arab states including the UAE in 2020, did little to moderate Israel’s position on the Palestinians. Ben Gvir, he said, was “a superstar in the UAE.”

Israel on Thursday swore in what is likely to be the most right-wing government in its history, led by six-time Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Ben Gvir, an extremist who has been convicted for supporting terrorism and inciting anti-Arab racism, became national security minister. Bezalel Smotrich, who supports abolishing the Palestinian Authority and annexing the West Bank, became finance minister.

Both politicians were invited to national day celebrations in December hosted by the UAE and Bahrain, which were among the nations that normalized relations with Israel, along with Morocco and Sudan in 2020.

“The Emirates are here to show that unity equals prosperity,” Al Khaja was cited by the Times of Israel as saying at his country’s national day celebration, where he was photographed with Ben Gvir. “We will continue to use diplomacy to deepen connections through friendship and mutual respect.”

The public embrace of figures that are hated in the Arab world – and are divisive within Israel itself – is a rare gesture on the part of Arab states that have normalized relations with Israel.

Egypt and Jordan, who recognized Israel in 1979 and 1994 respectively, have had what observers have called a “cold peace” with Israel.

In his phone call to congratulate Netanyahu on returning as prime minister, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi “emphasized the need to avoid any measures that would lead to tension and complicate the regional situation.” Jordan’s King Abdullah II warned in a CNN interview last month that his nation was “prepared” for conflict should the situation change at Jerusalem’s al-Aqsa mosque, of which he is the custodian.

The rightward direction of Israeli politics puts Israel’s new Arab partners in an awkward position regarding the Palestinian cause, which remains a central issue among Arab publics.

“It is awkward not just for us (in the UAE), but for everybody, in America, and all over the place,” Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, a political science professor in the UAE, told CNN. “It is a dilemma, but the way to deal with it is just to wait and see.”

An opinion poll by The Washington Institute for Near East Policy in July 2022 showed that support for the Abraham Accords had dropped in Gulf countries to a minority view, including the UAE and Bahrain, where more than 70% of the public views the agreement negatively. The data however also showed that around 40% of people in Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain support maintaining business and sporting ties with Israel.

The normalizing states appear to be cognizant of that. On Friday, all four Arab states continued the tradition of supporting the Palestinians at the United Nations by voting at the General Assembly to seek the International Criminal Court’s opinion on the legal consequences of Israel’s occupation of Palestinian territories. Netanyahu called the vote “despicable.”

But Israeli media has reported that behind the scenes, the Emiratis have also been sending messages of concern to Netanyahu about the inclusion of extremists in his government. Ahead of the Israeli elections, UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah Bin Zayed warned Netanyahu against including Ben Gvir and Smotrich in his government, the Times of Israel reported, citing a senior official. Axios, which first reported the news, said Netanyahu didn’t respond.

The move would be a rare case of one of Israel’s Arab partners showing a preference for the country’s domestic politics.

The UAE foreign ministry didn’t respond to CNN’s request for comment.

Israeli analyst Zvi Bar’el wrote in Haaretz that the December move to embrace Ben Gvir may have been linked to Abu Dhabi’s desire to steer Israeli policy, adding that it made the UAE “the Arab country with the greatest influence on the new Israeli government.”

The effectiveness of the UAE’s diplomacy within Israel remains to be seen. So far, Israel’s extremist minister seems unrestrained.

Less than a week since he was sworn in, Ben Gvir made a controversial visit to the al-Aqsa mosque compound escorted by Israeli police on Tuesday. The mosque, which lies in Israeli-occupied East Jerusalem, is in an area known to Muslims as Haram al-Sharif. It is the third holiest site for Muslims and the holiest for Jews, who know it as the Temple Mount. Under current arrangements, non-Muslims aren’t allowed to pray there and Ben Gvir wants to change that.

The UAE “strongly” condemned Ben Gvir’s visit without naming the minister, and called for the need to respect Jordan’s custodianship of the holy site. It later joined China in calling for an urgent meeting of the UN Security Council on the matter.

“However unhappy they (Bahrain and the UAE) might be towards the emergence of Israel’s most right-wing government, it’s clear that they’ve chosen to air these concerns privately, and have stopped short of letting them stand in the way of what they see as an important strategic relationship,” Elham Fakhro, a research fellow at the Centre for Gulf Studies at the University of Exeter, England, told CNN.

But the UAE has said earlier that the more friendly ties with the Arab world weren’t a green light for Israel to expand its territory. In June 2020, Yousef Al Otaiba, the UAE ambassador to the United States, warned Israel that its relations with Arab nations would suffer if there is any “illegal seizure of Palestinian land.”

Abdullah, the professor from the UAE, said that Abu Dhabi may have some leverage over Israel that it may use privately at times, but added that ultimately “everybody knows that nobody today has any leverage over Israel. Even America.”

Still, the UAE-Israel relationship is not everlasting, he said. “This relationship is going to be dictated by the UAE… When it doesn’t serve the interest of the UAE… it can collapse at any time.”

With additional reporting by Nadeen Ebrahim

Turkey’s ruling party mulls bringing elections ‘slightly’ forward

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan’s ruling AK Party is considering a “slight change” on the date of elections scheduled for mid-June, Reuters cited AK Party spokesman Omer Celik as saying on Monday. Since the date of the elections corresponds with the summer holiday season, the party is evaluating bringing it “slightly forward,” he said.
Background: Turkey’s parliamentary and presidential elections are scheduled to be held on June 18, and Erdogan previously said elections would be held in June. The date change would not amount to snap elections, Celik said.

Why it matters: The elections are set to take place as Turkey faces soaring inflation and an economic downturn that could hurt Erdogan’s prospects for re-election. But the government has of late tried to win back voter support through populist moves including wage hikes, retirement benefits, social aid, energy and agriculture support.
Amnesty condemns Iran for upholding protester death sentence

Amnesty International on Monday condemned the Iranian supreme court’s decision to uphold the death sentence of protester Mohammad Boroughani, who according to Iranian state media is accused of stabbing a security guard during a protest.
Background: Boroughani will be executed under the “moharebeh law,” or waging war against God, the state-aligned Tasnim news agency said. Prior to the supreme court’s confirmation of the sentence, he was sentenced to death by a revolutionary court during a group trial in Tehran presided by notorious judge Abolghasem Salavati, Amnesty said.

Why it matters: The protester is among 26 others identified by Amnesty last month as being at risk of execution in connection to the country’s nationwide protests. Iran has already carried out two protest-related executions over the past months of unrest. CNN has verified that at least 43 detainees are facing execution. The situation has drawn strong criticism from several European countries, including Germany, France and Britain.
Iran’s judiciary indicts two French nationals and a Belgian for espionage

Iran has indicted two French nationals and a Belgian for espionage and working against the country’s national security, Reuters reported, citing the semi-official Student News Network on Tuesday. The agency did not give the names of the three or say where or when they were indicted.
Background: Belgium’s justice minister said last month that Belgian aid worker Olivier Vandecasteele had been sentenced to 28 years in prison in Iran for what he called a “fabricated series of crimes.” Iranian media aired a video in October in which two French citizens appeared to confess to spying. The video sparked outrage in France, which said the detainees were “state hostages.”

Why it matters: A total of seven French citizens are being held in Iran, France’s foreign minister said in November. Iran has accused foreign adversaries of fomenting the wave of unrest that erupted three months ago. The protests mark one of the boldest challenges to the country’s leadership since its 1979 Islamic Revolution and have drawn in Iranians from all walks of life.
Regional: #HalaRonaldo (Hello, Ronaldo)

Warms my heart to see him in all smiles again. #HalaRonaldo #Hala_Ronaldo𓃵 #Hala_Ronaldo #AlNassr #CristianoRonaldo𓃵 #goat #GOAT𓃵7 #HalaRonaldo pic.twitter.com/WGBK9sea6Z

— AlNassr FC 🍥 (@alnassrfcfans) January 4, 2023

Soccer fans in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states are celebrating the arrival of famed Portuguese forward Cristiano Ronaldo in Riyadh, who touched down in the kingdom on Tuesday ahead of his unveiling ceremony with the Al Nassr Football Club.

Twitter was flooded with images of Ronaldo wearing the club’s yellow and blue colors, smiling on large billboards in the Saudi capital. Memes showed “sheikh Ronaldo” dressed in Arab attire, and another showed him wearing a jersey with the “Just do it” slogan for his sponsor Nike crossed out and replaced with “inshallah” – God-willing in Arabic.

A magazine in Saudi Arabia even put out ads for a full-time “Ronaldo correspondent,” Esquire magazine reported.

“Welcome to the greatest player in the world,” tweeted one Saudi user, sharing a video of a framed photograph of Ronaldo holding his Al Nassr jersey.

“The streets of Riyadh welcome Ronaldo,” tweeted one Kuwaiti social media influencer, saying Saudis are lucky their country has become home to such a high-status player.

The celebrations quickly faded for some, however, when a video showing Ronaldo mistakenly refer to his new home as “South Africa” on Tuesday went viral. “So, for me it’s not the end of my career to come in South Africa. This is why I wanna change. And to be honest I don’t really worry about what the people say,” the soccer star said at a press conference in Riyadh on Tuesday.

Some joked that Ronaldo accepted a large sum to play in Saudi Arabia only to get the country’s name wrong.

Al Nassr FC announced on December 30 that the footballer was joining their team, tweeting a photo of Ronaldo in its jersey. The 37-year-old was a free agent and immediately available due to his high-profile break-up with Manchester United last month.

By Nadeen Ebrahim
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January 4, 2023
House adjourns after chaotic day without electing a speaker as McCarthy fails to lock down votes | CNN Politics

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CNN
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The new House GOP majority is locked in a chaotic once-in-a-century fight to determine who will serve as the next speaker after Republican Kevin McCarthy failed to secure the necessary support to win in three rounds of voting on Tuesday. The House is now adjourned until Wednesday at noon as Republicans scramble to find a path forward.

McCarthy faces a small but determined contingent of hardline conservatives who are intent on denying him the votes to secure the gavel. The top House Republican has defiantly vowed to stay in the race as he continues his increasingly imperiled bid for speaker. But the longer the fight drags on, the more uncertainty there is over whether he can win. The last time an election for speaker went to multiple ballots was in 1923.

The contentious, drawn out fight threatens to deepen divides among House Republicans with McCarthy’s political career on the line. And the deal-making McCarthy has engaged in to try to win over critics may mean he has a weaker hand to play in his position of authority if he does become speaker.

For now, McCarthy remains adamant he will not give up, with people close to him summing up his mentality as this: “We’re going to war,” a senior GOP source tells CNN. “Never backing down.”

The conservatives opposing McCarthy are using the leverage they have in the razor-thin Republican majority to extract concessions as they threaten to deny the GOP leader critical votes. McCarthy has already given in to a number of their demands, including making it easier to topple the sitting speaker, but it is unclear whether his efforts will be enough.

To be elected speaker, a candidate needs to win a majority of members who vote for a specific person on the House floor. That amounts to 218 votes if no member skips the vote or votes “present.”

House Republicans hold 222 seats in the new Congress – so for McCarthy to reach 218, he would only be able to afford to lose four GOP votes.

The tally for the first ballot in the speaker vote was 203 for McCarthy, with 19 Republicans voting for other candidates.

The tally for the second ballot was 203 votes for McCarthy with 19 votes for GOP Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio. Jordan, to show that he is not vying for the job, nominated McCarthy ahead of the vote on the second ballot. That move did not deter McCarthy critics from voting for Jordan, however.

In the third round of voting, there were 202 votes for McCarthy and 20 votes for Jordan with Rep. Byron Donalds joining the 19 GOP lawmakers who had voted against McCarthy in the first two rounds.

A closed-door meeting of House Republicans on Capitol Hill grew tense and heated Tuesday morning as uncertainty grew over McCarthy’s fate.

McCarthy raised his voice and was animated as he teed off against his opponents and detailed concessions he has made, according to two sources. “I’ve earned this job,” he said.

After the far-right House Freedom Caucus denied his ascension to the speakership in 2015, McCarthy spent years courting the conservative wing of his party and worked hard to stay in former President Donald Trump’s good graces.

McCarthy has gotten some key backup from Trump, who publicly endorsed his speaker bid and encouraged others to support McCarthy. His congressional allies have also banded together in effort to act as a counterweight to his critics.

But when a red wave never materialized in the November midterms, the razor-thin majority that resulted for Republicans empowered a small band of conservatives – long distrustful of McCarthy – to make demands.

What has unfolded over the last two months is an all-out scramble for the speakership, which has taken the form of strategy sessions with close allies on and off Capitol Hill, intense negotiations over rules changes and non-stop phone calls with members.

McCarthy has been in deal-making mode, but if he does win the gavel, some of the concessions he has made may make it more difficult for him to stave off future challenge to his speakership.

In one change that could weaken his hand in the future, McCarthy has told lawmakers – as first reported by CNN – that he would support a threshold as low as five Republicans to trigger a vote on deposing the speaker, known as the “motion to vacate” the speaker’s chair, a major concession for him and one that moderates worry will be used as a constant cudgel over his head.

This story and headline have been updated with additional developments Tuesday.

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January 3, 2023
Florida Gov. DeSantis begins second term with spotlight on presidential ambitions | CNN Politics

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Tallahassee, Florida
CNN
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Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis swore an oath to a second term in office on Tuesday, trumpeting his accomplishments of the last four years that he said have made the state “a promised land of sanity,” as he pledged to make Florida a beacon for freedom across the nation.

“We are proud to be citizens of the great, free state of Florida,” DeSantis said at the conclusion of a 15-minute address that he delivered from the steps of the Historic Capitol in Tallahassee.

The speech unfolded as much of a sweeping national address as it did a blueprint for a second term as Florida’s governor. While DeSantis did not explicitly mention his national ambitions, including a potential 2024 Republican presidential bid, his words carried clear themes of his political fight ahead.

“We reject this woke ideology. We seek normalcy, not philosophical lunacy,” DeSantis said. “We will never surrender to the woke mob. Florida is where the woke goes to die.”

The strength of DeSantis’ reelection victory in November – the widest margin a Florida governor’s race has seen in four decades – has made him a guide for Republicans in a year filled with missed opportunities and disappointments. And at 44, he remains one of the party’s youngest prospective White House hopefuls, with his national ambitions on full display during two days of inauguration festivities in Tallahassee that are playing out under the slogan, “The Free State of Florida.”

Monday played host to a candlelight cocktail hour and dinner, while Tuesday will mark an inaugural ball, aides say, where donors who contribute between $50,000 and $1 million to the Republican Party of Florida will be given special access to the governor and VIP treatment. After the swearing-in, first lady Casey DeSantis is scheduled to lead “A Toast to One Million Mamas” to honor the women who worked and volunteered on the campaign.

While the inauguration is taking on greater significance than a typical second-term swearing-in ceremony, a senior aide to DeSantis told CNN that the governor he has made no firm decisions about his future and is in no rush to jump into a 2024 campaign.

“He is focused on his second term. In his eyes, there’s no rush,” the aide said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations in DeSantis’ closely controlled orbit. Any potential announcements are not expected until after the Florida legislative session ends in May.

The cross-state rivalry with former President Donald Trump hangs over every move DeSantis makes. Their relationship traces back to the future governor’s 2018 primary campaign, when an endorsement from Trump helped the little-known lawmaker leapfrog early frontrunner Adam Putnam, then the state agricultural commissioner, to win the nomination. A viral ad featuring DeSantis and his family, including two young children, highlighted his allegiance to Trump.

But as talk of 2024 swirled in recent months, the pair grew increasingly at odds. Before and after the midterm election, Trump derided DeSantis as an “average governor” and mocked him with the would-be nickname, “Ron DeSanctimonious.”

For his part, DeSantis has sought to downplay Trump’s criticism, describing the comments as “just noise.”

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January 3, 2023
Meet the history-makers of the 118th Congress | CNN Politics

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CNN
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The 118th Congress, being sworn in Tuesday, will eclipse several records set by the outgoing Congress.

It features a record-setting number of women, 149 – expanding female representation by just two members above the record set by the 117th Congress. Overall, women of color will also break a record for their representation this year, with 58 serving, and within the House alone, there will be a record number of both Latinas and Black women.

The new Congress also boasts the House’s first Gen-Z lawmaker and the longest-serving woman in congressional history.

Some newcomers, Republicans and Democrats alike, also achieved historic firsts in their own states, ushering a diverse group into a politically split Washington.

Here’s a look at the lawmakers, some new and some returning, who are making history in each chamber during this session of Congress.

Alabama: Republican Katie Britt is the first woman elected to the Senate from Alabama, winning an open seat vacated by her onetime boss, GOP Sen. Richard Shelby, who held the seat for nearly four decades.

Alabama’s two previous female senators both were appointed to fill vacancies.

California: Democrat Alex Padilla will be the first elected Latino senator from California, winning a special election for the remainder of Vice President Kamala Harris’ term as well as an election for a full six-year term. Padilla, the son of Mexican immigrant parents, was appointed by California Gov. Gavin Newsom to the seat Harris vacated when she became vice president.

Oklahoma: Republican Markwayne Mullin will be the first Native American senator from Oklahoma in almost 100 years, winning the special election to succeed GOP Sen. Jim Inhofe, who is resigning. Mullin, a member of the Cherokee Nation, represented the state’s 2nd Congressional District in the last Congress. Democrat Robert Owen, also a member of the Cherokee Nation, represented Oklahoma in the Senate from 1907 to 1925.

AZ-06: Juan Ciscomani will be the first Latino Republican elected to Congress from Arizona. Ciscomani, who was born in Mexico and immigrated to the US with his family as a child, previously worked at the Tucson Hispanic Chamber of Commerce and was a senior adviser to Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey.

CA-42: Democrat Robert Garcia will be the first out LGBTQ immigrant elected to Congress. Garcia, who immigrated from Lima, Peru, in the early 1980s at the age of 5, has been the mayor of Long Beach.

CO-08: Democrat Yadira Caraveo will be the first Latina elected to Congress from Colorado. Caraveo, a state representative and the daughter of Mexican immigrant parents, defeated Republican state Sen. Barbara Kirkmeyer to win the seat located north of Denver.

FL-10: Democrat Maxwell Frost will be the first Gen-Z member of Congress after winning the open seat for Florida’s 10th Congressional District.

The 25-year-old representative-elect told CNN’s Poppy Harlow on November 9 that when President Joe Biden called to congratulate him, the president recalled being too young to be sworn in as a senator when he was first elected at age 29.

“He asked me if it was the same situation. I said, ‘No, Mr. President, you had me beat on that. I’m already old enough to be sworn in on January 3.’ So, it was great to talk with him. You know, he was elected at a very young age, too, so he understands that experience,” Frost said on “CNN This Morning.”

IL-03: Democrat Delia Ramirez will be the first Latina elected to Congress from Illinois. Ramirez, who served as a Chicago-area state representative and is the daughter of Guatemalan immigrants, was also the first Guatemalan American to serve in the Illinois General Assembly.

IL-17: Democrat Eric Sorensen will be the first out gay person elected to Congress from Illinois. Sorensen, a former Rockford and Quad Cities meteorologist, defeated Republican Esther Joy King in the race to succeed retiring Democratic Rep. Cheri Bustos.

MI-10: Republican John James of Michigan will be the first Black Republican elected to Congress from Michigan, winning the open-seat race for the redrawn 10th Congressional District in the Detroit suburbs.

MI-13: Democrat Shri Thanedar will be the first Indian American elected to Congress from Michigan. Thaneder, who immigrated to the US from India, was elected to the Michigan House in 2020 and unsuccessfully sought the Democratic nomination for governor in 2018.

NY-03: Republican George Santos won the first House election between two out gay candidates – in New York’s 3rd Congressional District. Santos, the son of Brazilian immigrants, defeated Democrat Robert Zimmerman for the Long Island-based seat.

Santos is entering the House under intense scrutiny after admitting to lying about key pieces of his background while state and federal prosecutors look into his finances and fellow lawmakers voice their outrage over his resume fabrications.

OH-09: Democrat Marcy Kaptur will become the longest-serving woman in Congress when she’s sworn in to represent the state’s 9th Congressional District for her 21st term. Kaptur, who was first elected in 1982 and is currently the longest-serving woman in House history, will break the record set by Barbara Mikulski, who represented Maryland in the House and Senate for a combined 40 years.

OR-5 and 6: Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer and Democrat Andrea Salinas will be the first two Latinos elected to Congress from Oregon.

Chavez-DeRemer, who is Mexican American, will represent the 5th Congressional District, succeeding Democratic Rep. Kurt Schrader.

Salinas, whose father immigrated to the US from Mexico, won the state’s newly created 6th Congressional District.

PA-12: Democrat Summer Lee will be the first Black woman elected to Congress from Pennsylvania. Lee, who had been a Pittsburgh-area state representative, will succeed retiring Democratic Rep. Mike Doyle.

VT: Democrat Becca Balint will be the first woman and first openly LGBTQ person elected to Congress from Vermont. She will succeed Rep. Peter Welch, who was elected to represent the state in the Senate.

WA-03: Marie Gluesenkamp Perez will be the first Latino Democrat elected to Congress from Washington state. Gluesenkamp Perez, an auto repair shop owner whose father immigrated to the US from Mexico, defeated Republican Joe Kent to succeed GOP Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler, who finished third in the August top-two primary. Herrera Beutler was herself the first Hispanic member of Congress from Washington state.

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January 2, 2023
Whitmer urges both parties to ‘stand up’ to violent rhetoric and threats as she embarks on second term | CNN Politics

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Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, sworn in for a second term Sunday, called the sentencing last week of two men convicted of plotting to kidnap her “just,” while urging both parties to confront threats and violent rhetoric.

“Whether it is someone harassing Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh or Congressman Fred Upton here in Michigan, or me, or our attorney general, or secretary of state, it’s unacceptable,” she told CNN’s Kaitlan Collins in an interview the day she was sworn in. “But I do think it’s important that people on both sides of the aisle, who care more about our democracy than their political agenda, stand up and take it on.”

Thirteen people were charged in the kidnapping plot, with the group discussing sending a bomb to the governor. The co-leaders of the plot were sentenced last week to 16 years and nearly 20 years in federal prison, respectively, after prosecutors had sought a life sentence in both their cases.

Whitmer, who had dealt with an unprecedented Covid-19 pandemic and issued stay-at-home orders that made her a target, expressed concern over how the plot has been described, saying, “There’s a tendency to minimize some of these threats.”

“They weren’t planning to ransom me, they weren’t going to keep me, they were planning to assassinate me. And the plot has been covered as a kidnapping plot,” she said. “There was one person who showed up on, you know, on a Supreme Court justice’s lawn and turned himself in, and it was covered as an assassination attempt. And so I think that when you look at the facts of both of those, and you see how differently they’re covered, I do, you know, have concern about the language that we use, especially when women are a target as opposed to men.”

The Justice Department charged the man who was arrested near Kavanaugh’s house in Maryland with attempting or threatening to kidnap or murder a US judge.

Whitmer, first elected governor in 2018, said the threat against her had “changed how I assess going into situations” and “changed my concern for all the people around me.”

“I would be lying if I told you I was unfazed,” she said, adding, “I think it’s important to understand, I’m an ordinary person. I’ve got an extraordinary job and have served in extraordinary times. I’m a mom. I’m a daughter.”

After the challenges of the past few years, Whitmer said she’s “excited” about starting a new term.

“There was so much chaos, politically and in the environment, I didn’t know if I would, you know, get an opportunity to serve for four more years,” the Democratic governor said. “I never imagined I’d win by almost 11 points and come in with a whole new legislature.”

Whitmer sailed to a resounding victory in November, beating her Republican challenger Tudor Dixon 55% to 44%, while Democrats also won a majority in the Michigan legislature – giving them control of both chambers and the governorship for the first time in nearly four decades. Among her top priorities, Whitmer listed public education, economic development, protecting the Great Lakes and ensuring people have access to safe drinking water and high-speed internet. She also mentioned repealing the retirement tax that Republicans passed last legislature and getting a 1931 state law banning abortion “off the books.”

With her reelection in a pivotal swing state, Whitmer has furthered cemented her status as a national figure in the Democratic Party, but she has brushed off speculation about a 2024 White House bid while not completely closing the door to running for something else down the line.

“I think doing my job well is the best way that I can contribute to the national Democratic Party – is to be able to be someone that they can point to and say, ‘This is what happens when you elect Democrats,’” she said, reflecting on how her 2022 campaign “talked about abortion in the most personal terms” and how she thinks that contributed to Democrats’ success.

She anticipates President Joe Biden running for the White House again in 2024, telling CNN that he would have her “enthusiastic support” if he does.

“I do not have plans to run for anything other than to spend the next four years serving this state as governor with a majority Democratic legislature for the first time in a long time,” Whitmer said, while also noting that she felt similarly when she left the state legislature in 2015, only later to run for governor in 2018.

“I know enough about myself to know if there is something that needs to get done, and if there’s a role I can play, I will want to play it,” she said.

But regardless of whether she runs for something again or not, Whitmer said she “will stay engaged one way or another,” reflecting on what’s to come after the governor’s mansion. “Michigan will always play an outsized role in the national politics, so I look forward to making sure that our voices are impactful and Michigan gets what we need and we’ve got leaders who serve every person.”

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January 2, 2023
Five political trends that could make 2023 a momentous year | CNN Politics

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CNN
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Republicans’ take over of the House this week will usher in a two-year political era that threatens to bring governing showdowns and shutdowns as a GOP speaker and Democratic president try to wield power from opposite ends of Pennsylvania Avenue.

The unprecedented possibility that former President Donald Trump, who’s already launched another bid for the White House, could face indictment could tear the nation further apart at a moment when American democracy remains under grave strain. The already stirring 2024 presidential campaign, meanwhile, will stir more political toxins as both parties sense the White House and control of Congress are up for grabs after the closely fought midterms.

Abroad, the war in Ukraine brings the constant, alarming possibility of spillover into a NATO-Russia conflict and will test the willingness of American taxpayers to keep sending billions of dollars to sustain foreigners’ dreams of freedom. As he leads the West in this crisis, President Joe Biden faces ever more overt challenges from rising superpower China and alarming advances in the nuclear programs of Iran and North Korea.

If 2022 was a tumultuous and dangerous year, 2023 could be just as fraught.

Washington is bracing for a sharp shock. Since November, the big story has been about the red wave that didn’t arrive. But the reality of divided government will finally dawn this week. A House Republican majority, in which radical conservatives now have disproportionate influence, will take over one half of Capitol Hill. Republicans will fling investigations, obstruction and possible impeachments at the White House, designed to throttle Biden’s presidency and ruin his reelection hopes.

Ironically, voters who disdained Trump-style circus politics and election denialism will get more of it since the smaller-than-expected GOP majority means acolytes of the ex-president, like expected House Judiciary Chairman Jim Jordan of Ohio and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, will have significant sway. The new Republican-run House represents, in effect, a return to power of Trumpism in a powerful corner of Washington. If House GOP leader Kevin McCarthy wins his desperate struggle against his party’s hardliners to secure the speakership, he’ll be at constant risk of walking the plank after making multiple concessions to extreme right-wingers.

A weak speaker and a nihilistic pro-Trump faction in the wider GOP threaten to produce a series of spending showdowns with the White House – most dangerously over the need to raise the government’s borrowing authority by the middle of the year, which could throw the US into default if it’s not done.

As Democrats head into the minority under a new generation of leaders, government shutdowns are more likely than bipartisanship. The GOP is vowing to investigate the business ties of the president’s son, Hunter Biden, and the crisis at the southern border. The GOP could suffer, however, if voters think they overreached – a factor Biden will use as he eyes a second term.

In the Senate, Democrats are still celebrating the expansion of their tiny majority in the midterms. (After two years split at 50-50, the chamber is now 51-49 in their favor). Wasting no time in seeking to carve out a reputation among voters as a force for bipartisanship and effective governance, the president will travel to Kentucky this week. He’ll take part in an event also featuring Republicans, including Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, to highlight the infrastructure package that passed with bipartisan support in 2021.

Attorney General Merrick Garland could shortly face one of the most fateful decisions in modern politics: whether to indict Trump over his attempt to steal the 2020 election and over his hoarding of classified documents.

A criminal prosecution of an ex-president and current presidential candidate by the administration that succeeded him would subject the country’s political and judicial institutions to more extreme strain than even Trump has yet managed. The ex-president has already claimed persecution over investigations he faces – and an early declaration of his 2024 campaign has given him the chance to frame them as politicized.

If Trump were indicted, the uproar could be so corrosive that it’s fair to ask whether such an action would be truly in the national interest – assuming special counsel Jack Smith assembles a case that would have a reasonable chance of success in court.

Yet if Trump did indeed break the law – and given the strength of the evidence of insurrection against him presented in the House January 6 committee’s criminal referrals – his case also creates an even more profound dilemma. A failure to prosecute him would set a precedent that puts ex-presidents above the law.

“If a president can incite an insurrection and not be held accountable, then really there’s no limit to what a president can do or can’t do,” outgoing Illinois GOP Rep. Adam Kinzinger, a member of the select committee, said on CNN’s “State of the Union” Sunday.

“If he’s not guilty of a crime, then I, frankly, fear for the future of his country because now every future president can say, ‘Hey, here’s the bar.’ And the bar is, do everything you can to stay in power.”

Like it or not, with his November announcement, Trump has pitched America into the next presidential campaign. But unusual doubts cloud his future after seven years dominating the Republican Party. His limp campaign launch, bleating over his 2020 election loss and the poor track record of his hand-picked election-denying candidates in the midterms have dented Trump’s aura.

Potential alternative figureheads for his populist, nationalist culture war politics, like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, are emerging who could test the ex-president’s bond with his adoring conservative base. Even as he fends off multiple investigations, Trump must urgently show he’s still the GOP top dog as more and more Republicans consider him a national liability.

Biden is edging closer to giving Americans a new piece of history – a reelection campaign from a president who is over 80. His success in staving off a Republican landslide in the midterms has quelled some anxiety among Democrats about a possible reelection run. And Biden’s strongest card is that he’s already beaten Trump once. Still, he wouldn’t be able to play that card if Trump fades and another potential GOP nominee emerges. DeSantis, for example, is roughly half the current president’s age.

As 2023 opens, a repeat White House duel between Trump and Biden – which polls show voters do not want – is the best bet. But shifting politics, the momentous events in the months to come and the vagaries of fate means there’s no guarantee this will be the case come the end of the year.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year showed how outside, global events can redefine a presidency. Biden’s leadership of the West against Moscow’s unprovoked aggression will be an impressive centerpiece of his legacy. But Russian President Vladimir Putin shows every sign of fighting on for years. Ukraine says it won’t stop until all his forces are driven out. So Biden’s capacity to stop the war from spilling over into a disastrous Russia-NATO clash will be constantly tested.

And who knows how long US and European voters will stomach high energy prices and sending billions of taxpayer cash to arm Ukraine if Western economies dip into recession this year.

Biden has his hands full elsewhere. An alarming airborne near miss between a Chinese jet and US military jet over the South China Sea over the holiday hints at how tensions in the region, especially over Taiwan, could trigger another superpower standoff. Biden also faces burgeoning nuclear crises with Iran and North Korea, which, along with Russia’s nuclear saber rattling, suggests the beginning of a dangerous new era of global conflict and risk.

Rarely has an economy been so hard to judge. In 2022, 40-year-high inflation and tumbling stock markets coincided with historically low unemployment rates, which created an odd simultaneous sensation of economic anxiety and wellbeing. The key question for 2023 will be whether the Federal Reserve’s harsh interest rate medicine – designed to bring down the cost of living – can bring about a soft landing without triggering a recession that many analysts believe is on the way.

Washington spending showdowns and potential government shutdowns could also pose new threats to growth. The economy will be outside any political leader’s capacity to control, but its state at the end of the year will play a vital role in an election that will define America, domestically and globally after 2024.

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January 1, 2023
Highlights from the latest release of January 6 transcripts | CNN Politics

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CNN
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The House January 6 committee on Sunday released another wave of witness interview transcripts.

The new release is part of a steady stream of transcript drops from the House select committee in recent days, complementing the release of its sweeping 845-page report.

The latest transcript drop comes as the panel winds down its work with the House majority set to change hands from Democrats to Republicans on Tuesday at the start of the new Congress.

The transcripts released so far have shed new light on how the House committee conducted its investigation of the January 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol – and new details about what key witnesses told the panel.

Here are some of the highlights from the latest disclosures:

Mark Meadows, former President Donald Trump’s White House chief of staff, provided the select committee with 6,600 pages of email records and approximately 2,000 text messages, according to a transcript of a deposition for which Meadows did not appear in December 2021.

Investigators ran through some of the items they had hoped to ask Meadows about if he had appeared, including a December 2020 email from Meadows stating, “Rudy was put in charge. That was the President’s decision,” according to the committee transcript.

The committee also hoped to ask Meadows about certain passages in his book, specific text message exchanges and his outreach to the Justice Department “encouraging investigations of suspected voter fraud.” The committee also planned to ask Meadows about his communications regarding deploying the National Guard on January 6, “including a January 5th email from Mr. Meadows in which he indicates that the Guard would be present at the Capitol to, quote, ‘protect 153 pro-Trump people,’ end quote.”

The committee similarly convened no-show deposition meetings for former Trump aide Dan Scavino, former Trump administration official Peter Navarro and right-wing media personality Steve Bannon, who previously worked in the Trump White House. The brief transcripts of those meetings document the failure of the witnesses to appear and communications the committee had with the witnesses or their representatives.

In a transcript with Alexandra Preate, who worked as a spokeswoman for Bannon, the committee asked about their text exchanges. In one, the two appeared to be discussing – days after the Capitol was attacked – 1 million people surrounding the Capitol after Joe Biden’s inauguration on January 20, 2021.

The committee interviewer quotes Bannon’s text as saying, “I’d surround the Capitol in total silence.”

When asked if she and Bannon talked about bringing people back to Washington, DC, even after January 6, Preate said, “I don’t recall that” and it was “not my deal.” Preate also said she believes Trump lost the election.

Republican National Committee Chair Ronna McDaniel told the committee that the former president called her on January 1, 2021, and asked her about her relationship with then-Vice President Mike Pence.

“I do have a recollection of him asking me what my relationship was with the Vice President, and I said I didn’t know him very well,” McDaniel told the select committee, according to a transcript.

McDaniel said she could not recall if they specifically discussed the role Pence would play in certifying the Electoral College vote five days after that call. But McDaniel said that later on, after the US Capitol attack, Trump conveyed to her privately “in one way or another that, you know, the Vice President had the authority to – I don’t know the correct legal term, but he had the authority to not accept the electors.”

She also said Trump called her on January 7 but they did not talk about the attack.

The panel revealed during its hearings over the summer that Trump called McDaniel directly in December to tell her about the plan for a group of states to submit alternate slates of electors and connected her to his elections lawyer John Eastman, but her full transcript reveals more details about what was shared between the RNC, Trump White House and the Trump campaign at the time.

In the lead-up to January 6, McDaniel testified that she did not know that the alternate slates of electors were being considered for anything other than contingent electors in case legal challenges changed state election results. She added she was not privy to a lot of those discussions and that she was going through ankle surgery around the time of the Capitol attack.

McDaniel told committee investigators that after that December call, she called the Trump campaign’s counsel Justin Clark, who gave her the impression that the campaign was aware of the so-called alternate elector plan and was working on it. She also testified that on December 14, when she was informed that false electors met, she sent a note to former Trump White House aide Molly Michael.

As for fundraising emails from the RNC about the 2020 election, McDaniel said the RNC worked closely with Clark but that once Giuliani took over Trump’s legal efforts, he “was doing his own thing and didn’t really reach out to the RNC.”

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January 1, 2023
How Josh Shapiro rode his record as Pennsylvania attorney general to the governor’s mansion | CNN Politics

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Josh Shapiro had a massive spending advantage and a weak Republican opponent, but the incoming Pennsylvania governor thinks Democrats should still take note of how he made voters see his fight-for-the-little-guy speeches as more than just talk – and racked up the party’s biggest margin in any swing-state race of 2022.

“My sense is people don’t think government will have the courage to take on the powerful and then be able to deliver,” Shapiro said in an interview with CNN. “So I think some people are like, ‘This guy really did take on the big guy, and he really did deliver something.’”

What he’s talking about is a wide record of six years as Pennsylvania attorney general. He didn’t just bemoan the opioid crisis but secured $3.25 billion for treatment and other services in the state. And he wasn’t just complaining about corruption but overseeing the arrests of more than 100 corrupt officials from both parties.

In a midterm year in which Democrats lost the House but still did better than expected, Shapiro – who will be sworn in January 17 – dominated every day of his race in a state that was key to both Donald Trump’s and Joe Biden’s presidential wins.

Former President Barack Obama told Shapiro directly that he’s among the 2022 generation of Democrats who need to have a voice in the future of the party, according to people familiar with the conversation. Famed consultant James Carville called Shapiro’s campaign the best of 2022. He’s already being chattered about by many Democrats as perhaps the future first Jewish president.

As Democrats start planning for what’s next – what they stand for, instead of just what they stand against with Trumpism – even White House aides who now rave about Biden’s accomplishments being on par with Lyndon Johnson’s acknowledge that they’re still struggling to make many voters see the direct impact on their lives. Happy as they are about how well Democrats did in the midterms, they see most of that as a rejection of Republicans and Trumpism, with top Democrats telling CNN they know they have a different task in front of them as they head into preparations for an expected Biden reelection campaign and efforts to hold the Senate and win back the House in 2024.

Pollsters John Anzalone and Matt Hogan said in memo last month that while the party should be “understandably encouraged,” Democrats “should be careful not to interpret the results as evidence that voters liked the party more than pre-election polls suggested.”

From MAGA crowds to Bernie Sanders rallies in Pennsylvania and beyond, voters in interviews often express a common feeling that a small group is getting away with what regular Americans never could, and a cynicism that any politician is even trying to do anything to stop them.

Put Shapiro’s tight-rimmed glasses and studied Obama-style speaking rhythms next to Democrat John Fetterman’s Carhartt shorts, tattoos and bouncer chin beard and few would see the incoming governor rather than the already iconic Pennsylvania senator-elect as the one with populist appeal. Yet it was Shapiro, who grew up the son of a pediatrician in the Philadelphia suburbs and has been measuring each step on his path to Harrisburg since law school – and some around him say grade school – who got more votes in November.

Focus groups conducted by Shapiro’s campaign as he was preparing to launch last year had people saying he was “polished,” according to people familiar with the findings. Worried that could slip to “boring,” or just being written off as a career politician, aides packed his stump speeches full of more references to cases or parts of the $328 million in relief, restitution, penalties and other payments his office says he obtained over six years on the job.

When Shapiro talked about climate change, he talked about getting to affordable energy costs and about the fracking companies he sued as attorney general because the pollution was endangering Pennsylvanians’ health. When he talked about student loans, he talked about the $200 million in debt he got canceled by suing a big lender. He was just as likely to bring up the massive investigation his office did into decades of sexual abuse in Catholic dioceses across the state as he was a local construction company from which he recovered $21 million in stolen wages, knowing that either effort would give him credibility and appeal to voters who don’t think much about politics, or rarely think about voting for Democrats.

“They don’t want to hear you talk,” said a top Shapiro aide. “They want to see what you can do.”

He had a running start heading into his gubernatorial campaign: Since his election as attorney general in 2016, Shapiro and his team had made publicizing the work he was doing a central part of the strategy, from pressuring a huge state insurance company by having news conferences with women who’d been through breast cancer treatment, to mounting campaigns to have supporters write open letter op-eds to CEOs they were after, to setting up a hotline for church abuse victims to call in with their stories.

With Republicans all over the country stoking crime fears throughout the midterms, Shapiro would talk about the 8,200 drug dealers he’d locked up in his six years on the job. He’d then immediately follow up, saying that the opiates many of them were selling were part of a crisis “manufactured by greed” and how he’d also gone after those companies with the power of his office.

“Look at his model,” said Rep. Dwight Evans, a Democrat who represents much of Philadelphia. “What he says is, people deserve to be safe and feel safe. You got to have a way of showing outcomes. And he does that.”

Shapiro’s Republican opponent, Doug Mastriano, raised only $7 million, had an account full of QAnon-friendly tweets, was seen in a picture dressed up in a Confederate uniform, held events where men claiming to be security blocked reporters from entering and paid consulting fees to the antisemitic website Gab. But in a swing state that Biden only narrowly won in 2020 – and had gone to Trump four years earlier – Shapiro’s eventual victory was far from a guarantee.

In reflective moments during the campaign, Shapiro would talk about the “heaviness” he felt while campaigning and about the way his wife would poke him in the chest or voters would grab him by the arm and tell him, “You have to win.” An observant Jew, whose campaign debated whether to feature a shot of a challah bread in an opening video in which he spoke about getting home every Friday night for dinner with his family (it ultimately did) and who often cited an old Jewish teaching that “no one is required to complete the task, nor are we allowed to refrain from it,” he said he felt the weight both politically and personally.

Voters ended up rejecting election-denying Republicans in nearly every competitive midterm race around the country. Shapiro, though, didn’t wax on about the abstract wonders of democracy or voting rights, but detailed the 43 challenges to the 2020 vote count that he defeated in court.

He went on offense, mocking Mastriano for talking a “good game” about freedom, then saying “real freedom” is about freedom of choice in abortion rights, freedom to not have banned books, freedom to not feel targeted by guns on the streets and freedom to have job opportunities.

He talked about the events of January 6, 2021, but only to say that Mastriano’s presence in the crowd outside the US Capitol ahead of rioters storming the building showed that he didn’t “respect” Pennsylvanians enough to care what they thought.

He never went more than a few words without drawing a direct line back to what he’d already accomplished.

Part of Shapiro’s standard routine is always insisting he doesn’t pay attention to national politics and doesn’t think much about what other Democrats beyond Pennsylvania are doing or saying. One of his favorite lines during the campaign was how his focus was on Washington County, just southwest of Pittsburgh, and not Washington, DC.

So when asked about other Democrats being wary of going after corporations over fears they’d be tagged as socialists, or about Biden’s only sporadic attacks on oil companies for profiting as gas prices were high, Shapiro pleaded ignorance – pointedly.

“I don’t have a frame of reference,” he said, “but I guess I am surprised they wouldn’t talk about it as well.”

The result for Shapiro: He set a record of winning the most votes ever for a Pennsylvania gubernatorial candidate. As his campaign has proudly pointed out, his win was so big that he could have gotten there even without a single vote from Philadelphia and its suburbs: In Erie County, which Biden won by 1 point in 2020, Shapiro won by 21 points; and in Washington County, which Biden lost by 22 points, Shapiro only lost by 2.

His coattails helped keep the Senate race tilted to Fetterman even when the candidate was sidelined by a stroke. He also helped his party hold three swing US House seats and narrowly win a majority in the state House of Representatives for the first time in more than a decade.

“He was able to represent everyday consumers against the big guys,” said North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, the outgoing chair of the Democratic Governors Association and a former state attorney general himself. “People remember that, when you stood up on their behalf.”

As attorney general, Shapiro faced the corny political joke: “AG” really stands for “aspiring governor.” While many have made the jump, few have done it successfully.

Shapiro knows he’s going to have to adjust.

“When we were in the AG’s office, these cases would come to us,” said the Shapiro aide. “Now we’re in the position of, we drive the agenda.”

They’re still trying to sort out what exactly that the shift in mentality will mean.

“It’s hard to accuse me of not doing things,” Shapiro said. “I feel a responsibility to now be able to take what I did, that type of approach in the AG’s office and show that government can work.”

There’s only so far most Democrats can go in following the Shapiro model. Members of Congress can’t go to grand juries. A president can’t negotiate legal settlements.

But with Shapiro and fellow Democratic Attorney General Maura Healey of Massachusetts winning their governor’s races, other Democratic attorneys general are gearing up for more.

Even in states with multiple competitive races, every Democratic attorney general was reelected in 2022, except in rapidly reddening Iowa, and the party picked up the office in the key swing state of Arizona.

Those and other state AGs are already moving individually and in small groups on more investigations they expect to soon go public in a big way, including more pharmaceutical inquiries, privacy and data protection, and online consumer fraud. Also now rising on the list of targets: cryptocurrency.

“It certainly works. It gets the attention of corporate America. They know they have to contend with us,” said Nevada Attorney General Aaron Ford, who also co-chairs the Democratic Attorneys General Association and just won a second term back home. “And the voters appreciate it, and it’s recognized.”

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January 1, 2023