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  • Recep Tayyip Erdogan Fast Facts | CNN

    Recep Tayyip Erdogan Fast Facts | CNN

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    CNN
     — 

    Here’s a look at the life of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, current president and former prime minister of Turkey.

    Birth date: February 26, 1954

    Birth place: Istanbul, Turkey

    Birth name: Recep Tayyip Erdogan

    Father: Ahmet Erdogan, coastguard and sea captain

    Mother: Tenzile Erdogan

    Marriage: Emine (Gulbaran) Erdogan (July 4, 1978-present)

    Children: Two daughters and two sons

    Education: Marmara University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 1981

    Religion: Muslim

    Active in Islamist circles in the 1970s and 1980s.

    Before his political career, Erdogan was a semi-professional football (soccer) player.

    Erdogan is considered a polarizing figure: supporters say he has improved the Turkish economy and introduced political reform. Critics have accused Erdogan of autocratic tendencies, corruption and extravagance.

    Erdogan has also been heavily criticized for failing to protect women’s and human rights, curbing freedom of speech and attempting to curb Turkey’s secular identity.

    Under Erdogan and his ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), Turkey has lifted restrictions on public expression of religion, including ending the ban on women wearing Islamic-style headscarves.

    Has called social media “the worst menace to society.”

    1984 – Elected as a district head of the Welfare Party.

    1985 – Elected as the Istanbul Provincial Head of the Welfare Party and becomes a member of the central executive board of the party.

    1994-1998 – Mayor of Istanbul.

    1998 – The Welfare Party is banned. Erdogan serves four months in prison for inciting religious hatred after reciting a controversial poem.

    August 2001 – Co-founds the Islamist-rooted Justice and Development Party (AKP).

    2002-2003 – Erdogan’s AKP wins the majority of seats in parliamentary elections, and he is appointed prime minister.

    2003-2014 – Serves as prime minister.

    June 2011 – AKP wins by a wide margin in the parliamentary elections, securing a third term for Erdogan.

    June 2013 – Anti-government demonstrations target Erdogan’s policies, including his plan to turn a park into a mall, and call for political reforms. Thousands are reported injured in the clashes.

    December 2013 – Corruption probe begins which investigates more than 50 suspects, including members of Erdogan’s inner circle. The following month, the government dismisses 350 police officers amid the investigation. Ten months later, the prosecutor drops the inquiry.

    March 2014 – After Erdogan threatens to “eradicate” Twitter at a campaign rally, Turkey bans the social media site, and a two-week countrywide blackout ensues.

    August 10, 2014 – Erdogan is elected president during the first-ever direct elections in Turkey.

    November 2014 – At a summit hosted by a women’s group in Istanbul, Erdogan says that women and men are not equal “because their nature is different.” It’s not the first time the Turkish leader has made controversial comments about women: previously, he told Turkish university students that they shouldn’t be “picky” when choosing a husband and has called on all Turkish women to have three children.

    June 7, 2015 – In Turkey’s parliamentary elections, AKP wins 41% of the vote.

    July 15-16, 2016 – During an attempted coup by a faction of the military, at least 161 people are killed and 1,140 wounded. Erdogan addresses the nation via FaceTime and urges people to take to the streets to stand up to the military faction behind the uprising. He blames the coup attempt on cleric and rival Fethullah Gulen, who lives in self-imposed exile in Pennsylvania.

    April 16, 2017 – A vote is held on a constitutional amendment expanding Erdogan’s presidential powers. Turkish state media report that about 51% of people voted yes on the referendum, which abolishes the country’s parliamentary system and would potentially allow for Erdogan to remain in office until 2029. International election monitors question whether the election was free and fair, citing last-minute rule changes, the muzzling of opposition voices and the dominance of the “yes” campaign in the media. Opposition leaders in the Republican People’s Party say that they plan to challenge the election results in court.

    May 16, 2017 – Erdogan meets US President Donald Trump at the White House. During a joint news conference, Erdogan praises Trump’s electoral victory and vows to help the United States fight terrorism. After the two men speak, demonstrators protest outside the residence of the Turkish ambassador. Nine people are injured when Turkish security guards rush into a line of protestors and kick people on the ground. Law enforcement sources tell CNN that some of the men involved in the fight were Erdogan’s bodyguards.

    October 12, 2017 – Erdogan accuses the United States of sacrificing its relationship with Turkey in a speech made days after the arrest of a US consular staff member and the announcement that he refuses to recognize the authority of US Ambassador John Bass. Erdogan blames Bass and other officials left over from the Obama administration for sabotaging relations between the two countries.

    December 2017 – In response to Trump’s decision to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, Erdogan declares the move to be null and void and announces Turkey’s intention to open a Turkish embassy in Jerusalem.

    June 24, 2018 – Is reelected president.

    November 2, 2018 – The order to kill Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi came “from the highest levels of Saudi government,” Erdogan writes in an opinion piece in the Washington Post. The friendship between Turkey and Saudi Arabia “doesn’t mean we will turn a blind eye to the premeditated murder that unfolded in front of our very eyes,” he writes.

    January 8, 2019 – After backing the decision that the United States will begin pulling troops from Syria, Erdogan claims US National Security Adviser John Bolton made “a serious mistake” telling reporters that the United States would only pull out of Syria if Turkey pledged not to attack its Kurdish allies there. “Bolton’s remarks in Israel are not acceptable. It is not possible for me to swallow this,” Erdogan says during a speech in parliament. “Bolton made a serious mistake. If he thinks that way, he is in a big mistake. We will not compromise.”

    January 14, 2019 – Trump and Erdogan discuss “ongoing cooperation in Syria as US forces begin to withdraw” during a phone call just one day after Trump threatened to “devastate Turkey economically” if the NATO-allied country attacks Kurds in the region.

    October 9, 2019 – Turkey launches a military offensive into northeastern Syria, just days after Trump’s administration announced that US troops would leave the border area. Erdogan’s “Operation Peace Spring” is an effort to drive away Kurdish forces from the border, and use the area to resettle around two million Syrian refugees.

    October 22, 2019 – Erdogan meets with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Sochi and the men announce a wide-ranging agreement on Syria, announcing that Russian and Turkish troops will patrol the Turkish-Syrian border. Kurdish forces have about six days to retreat about 20 miles away from the border.

    January 2, 2020 – The Turkish parliament gives Erdogan authorization for one year to deploy military to address Libyan commander Khalifa Haftar’s offensive against the UN-recognized government in Tripoli, Libya.

    December 20, 2021 – Erdogan unveils a plan to prop up the Turkish lira with a raft of new unorthodox economic measures, including compensating Turkish savers worried about the tumbling value of their nest eggs by compensating them for the impact of the depreciation of the lira on their deposits. A few days before, Erdogan announced a nearly 50% hike in the country’s minimum wage, hoping it would provide relief to suffering workers.

    February 5, 2022 – Erdogan announces on Twitter that he and his wife had contracted the Omicron variant of the coronavirus and were experiencing mild symptoms.

    February 7, 2023 – Erdogan declares a three-month state of emergency in 10 provinces following a magnitude 7.8 earthquake that struck Turkey and Syria on February 6.

    May 28, 2023 – Erdogan wins Turkey’s presidential election, defeating opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu and stretching his rule into a third decade.

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  • Analysis: Rishi Sunak could still suffer a similar fate to Boris Johnson. His castle is built on sand | CNN

    Analysis: Rishi Sunak could still suffer a similar fate to Boris Johnson. His castle is built on sand | CNN

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    London
    CNN
     — 

    Rishi Sunak should be celebrating after a week of successes. But despite good economic news, the allies of the British prime minister say they’ve been reminded that his castle is built on sand.

    First the good news. The International Monetary Fund said this week that the UK was no longer on track for a recession. Inflation and energy prices are falling, albeit slower than Sunak might like.

    Things are still not great, but given the mess Sunak inherited from his predecessor Liz Truss – whose big economic gamble caused the pound to sink to its lowest against the dollar in decades – Sunak can credibly say he has steadied the ship to some extent.

    Now the bad news: his Conservative party is still rife with division and full of individuals who have scores to settle with one another. 

    It wasn’t even a year ago that Boris Johnson was still prime minister, doing his best to cling to power despite drowning in scandals of his own making. It was Sunak, then Johnson’s chancellor (finance minister), who dealt the killer blow by resigning from Johnson’s cabinet over the scandals. 

    Johnson’s fiercest allies have not forgiven Sunak for his betrayal. They all rallied behind Truss when she stood against Sunak to take over from Johnson. Just 49 days later, she was also forced to resign, leaving Sunak essentially unopposed. He became PM on October 25 and immediately set about being the anti-Truss. 

    He has softened relations with Europe and moved away from the firebrand conservatism that people had come to associate with Johnson and Truss. For some on the conservative right, Sunak is essentially a sellout. 

    This makes him vulnerable to the well-documented tumultuous internal politics of the Conservative party.

    This week, two things happened that reminded some Conservatives of how quickly things can go south. 

    First, he had to make a decision over what to do with his Home Secretary, Suella Braverman, after it was revealed she had asked civil servants to help her avoid a speeding fine by organising a private driving awareness course. 

    Sunak decided her actions didn’t breach the Ministerial Code, which would have required her to resign by convention. Sunak was immediately accused of letting her off the hook because he is too weak to have a fight with someone who is a stalwart member of the right of the party, many of whom despise Sunak. 

    It comes just a week after Braverman gave a speech at a thinly-veiled anti-Sunak conference in London. Not only did Sunak give her the freedom to speak at the conference, but she used to platform to give a speech that was clearly aimed at her own leadership bid at some point in the future. 

    Second, Johnson is back in the news after being referred to the police over concerns he broke more Covid rules than previously thought. Johnson allies have taken the opportunity to accuse Sunak of being behind all of this – something that Sunak’s spokesperson went on-the-record to deny. 

    And just like that, two people who could make life very difficult for Sunak are distracting from positive headlines about the economy and reminding everyone how quickly the Conservative party can turn on itself. 

    Suella Braverman signalled her ambition for the top job at a conservative conference this month.

    Some Sunak allies criticize him for having Braverman in his government at all. She had already had to resign from Truss’s government for breaching the Ministerial Code once. Her ambitions are well known and she is top of the list of cabinet ministers to martyr herself before the next election in order to position herself for any vacant leadership position that might come up if the Conservatives lose power. 

    “He came into office thinking he was weaker than he actually was and thinking the Boris (Johnson) and Liz (Truss) types were stronger than they were,” a senior Conservative MP told CNN. 

    “In reality, those people were in a very weak position because their team had done so much damage to the party overall. He could have just formed a government in his own image rather than taking Boris and Liz offcuts. His lack of confidence in himself made them more powerful in the long run,” the MP adds. 

    A former Conservative advisor says “the risk for Rishi comes if the polls don’t improve. Once the MPs start thinking the next election is lost, some of them will decide to go out in a blaze of glory and act on all the vendettas that have built up over the years.” 

    A united party is very important for any party seeking to win power. Historically the Conservatives have been much better at this than other British parties. However, a senior Conservative campaign advisor says there is “no hope in hell” of getting to the next election without a big old dust up.

    Many Conservatives have already decided the game is over. The list of MPs deciding not to stand at the next election is growing and the people behind the scenes, essential to winning elections, are seeking alternative employment. 

    “We take our lead from the top and if someone like Braverman is already thinking about the next leadership contest, I think that’s a very bad sign of what happens at the next election,” the campaign advisor says. 

    Boris Johnson is back in the news again over alleged Covid violations and still has a following in his party.

    Rishi Sunak came to power promising a more professional approach to government than the UK had seen over the previous three years. His slow and steady managerial style has improved the dire polling numbers he inherited. And right now, no one is seriously considering trying to remove him from office. 

    To be clear: no one thinks things are suddenly going to erupt, or that Boris Johnson is going to make some storming return back to power. Most accept that they are going to have stick with Sunak till the election and hope the economy improves so people feel richer. The fears are that the uglier side of the party will start to emerge, factionalism will return and the result will be a slow limp to an election loss. 

    What this week has reminded lots of Conservatives of, however, is how precarious all of this is. As one MP put it: “You are only ever about three moves away from total collapse in the modern Conservative party.” Or as a senior campaign figure put it: “It’s just a bit crap and the best possible outcome is it remaining a bit crap rather than getting worse.” 

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  • Investigation launched after death of Navy Seal candidate prompts overhaul of how ‘Hell Week’ training course is monitored | CNN Politics

    Investigation launched after death of Navy Seal candidate prompts overhaul of how ‘Hell Week’ training course is monitored | CNN Politics

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    CNN
     — 

    Inadequate medical screening and uninformed medical staff contributed to the death of a Navy SEAL candidate hours after he had completed a brutal part of the training course known as “Hell Week,” a Navy investigation found.

    The investigation prompted an overhaul of how the Navy monitors one of the military’s most brutal and demanding processes.

    It found that the medical support for the Basic Underwater Demolition/Sea Air and Land course was “poorly organized, poorly integrated, and poorly led,” wrote Rear Adm. Peter Garvin, the commander of Naval Education and Training Command. The lack of proper medical care “put candidates at significant risk.”

    Garvin also said that additional accountability measures are necessary in the wake of the failures that contributed to Mullen’s death. According to a Navy official, Garvin recommended considering accountability actions against approximately 10 people. A Navy regional legal service office is reviewing the investigation and will make recommendations about accountability, the official said, after which the command will decide what actions to take.

    The training and selection course is designed to push SEAL candidates to the limit and beyond, creating an environment where only the most qualified and capable will finish, but Garvin said there must still be “effective risk management” to prevent injuries and illness during the high-risk training.

    In February 2022, Navy SEAL candidate Kyle Mullen had just completed Hell Week and underwent a final medical check before he went to rest at his barracks. The investigation found Mullen had suffered respiratory issues during the arduous training, but information about the symptoms was not passed on to the Navy’s medical clinic, leading them to conclude he was not at risk.

    Eight hours later, Mullen was pronounced dead.

    In the hours before his death, Mullen was coughing up an “orange-red fluid” and having trouble breathing, according to the investigation. Even as he repeatedly refused advanced medical care, he appeared to be choking on his words and gasping for air as if he was drowning. But the personnel assigned to check on Mullen and other SEAL candidates, known as watch standers, had no medical or emergency care training.

    Candidates going through Hell Week are normally given a form of penicillin called Bicillin at the start of the course to reduce the risk of bacterial pneumonia. But the investigation found Mullen never received the preventative medicine, likely because there was a shortage at the time.

    In the end, the investigation found “failures across multiple systems” that put candidates at a high risk of serious injury, Garvin wrote.

    “Our effectiveness as the navy’s maritime special operations force necessitates demanding, high-risk training,” said Rear Adm. Keith Davids, the commander of Naval Special Warfare Command, at the conclusion of the investigation. “While rigorous and intensely demanding, our training must be conducted with an unwavering commitment to safety and methodical precision.”

    In October, following a separate investigation that focused specifically on Mullen’s death, the Navy took administrative actions against the former commanding officer of Basic Training Command, Capt. Bradley Geary; the commander of Naval Special Warfare Center, Capt. Brian Drechsler; and senior medical staff under their command. An administrative action is typically in the form of a letter to the service member instructing them on correcting deficient performance.

    Earlier this month, Drechsler was removed from his job two months early.

    Following Mullen’s death, the Navy revamped how it handles medical screening during the training and selection process. The Navy bolstered medical oversight during and after the Hell Week course, requiring medical screenings every 24 hours.

    Candidates now recover from the course in a center located very close to the medical clinic, allowing more thorough observation at a critical time, and the leading watch stander is a qualified high-risk instructor. In addition, a medical officer must be at the Naval Special Warfare Center Medical Department during all of Hell Week to evaluate candidates going through the course.

    The investigation also looked at how to handle the use of performance enhancing drugs (PEDs) during the course. In September, a naval special warfare senior officer who spoke to CNN on condition of anonymity said there is “beyond a reasonable doubt that a significant portion of the candidate population is utilizing a wide range of performance enhancing drugs.”

    A search of Mullen’s car after his death found packages labeled “Big Genes Recombinant Human Growth Hormone” and “Testosterone Cypionate,” a type of steroid. But Mullen was not tested after his death for the PEDs because of the need for a blood and urine sample.

    Other members of Mullen’s class told investigators they felt there was an implicit endorsement of the use of PEDs after an instructor told the candidates, “Don’t use PEDs, it’s cheating, and you don’t need them. And whatever you do, don’t get caught with them in your barracks room.”

    After Mullen’s death, the Navy received from the Defense Department an expanded authority to test Naval Special Warfare Candidates for PEDs. All candidates going through the SEALs course and the Special Warfare Combatant-Craft Crewman course are subject to random drug testing.

    This story has been updated with additional details.

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  • DeSantis to open presidential bid by out-Trumping Trump | CNN Politics

    DeSantis to open presidential bid by out-Trumping Trump | CNN Politics

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    CNN
     — 

    Ron DeSantis’ decision to announce his 2024 White House bid in a conversation with Elon Musk on Twitter on Wednesday will make a typically blunt statement about his campaign, the unruly populism of the modern Republican Party and an accelerating conservative media revolution.

    Florida’s governor will finally jump into the race by throwing down a gauntlet to ex-President Donald Trump with a launch strategy that frames him as the true anti-establishment rebel in the race who is willing to crush the conventions of traditional presidential politics.

    His choice of venue on Twitter Spaces – the site’s audio platform – also exemplifies the Trump-era GOP’s transformation into a party that rewards gesture politics and whose activists respond to the unmoderated social media jungle while disdaining traditional standards of conduct and governance.

    But while Twitter’s attractiveness to conservative voters under Musk, who has 141 million followers, means DeSantis may be making a shrewd move in a GOP primary, he could further damage an already questionable reputation among more moderate voters he’d need in a general election by appearing on an increasingly polarizing platform.

    That’s because Twitter, which once offered a platform for democratic movements in the Arab Spring, has been transformed by its new owner into a febrile circus of untamed free speech, conspiracy theories and unverifiable information. Only this week, a fake image of an explosion near the Pentagon went viral, causing a blip on the stock market in a potential preview of a presidential campaign likely to be plagued by misinformation and AI-generated falsehoods. Musk has, meanwhile, shown a willingness to ignite his own Twitter infernos, so his increasingly prominent role suggests the 2024 presidential race could be just as turbulent as the 2016 and 2020 editions, which were marked by Trump’s extreme rhetoric and voter fraud accusations.

    Another mind-bending twist to election season came on Tuesday with the former president’s virtual court appearance in a case arising out of a hush money payment to a former adult film star in which he has already pleaded not guilty. Judge Juan Merchan set a trial date for March 25, 2024 – in the middle of primary season. The timetable raises the prospect that Trump could use the trial as a stage to drive home his claim that he’s a victim of political persecution. But it also creates a risk for Trump that he could be criminally convicted while he’s still fighting for the GOP nomination – an extraordinary and unprecedented scenario.

    By choosing Twitter to make his own splash, DeSantis appears to be targeting a dramatic moment that could restore a sense of momentum to GOP primary aspirations that were soaring six months ago but that have been undermined by his own missteps and Trump’s recent political rebound.

    In embracing Musk, DeSantis is associating himself with a hero of conservatives who have long claimed they are being censored on social media. He’s taking a swipe at Trump, who was banned from tweeting by the company’s previous ownership and has so far preferred the home ground of his own platform, Truth Social, even after Musk restored his account. Trump’s 2016 campaign and entire presidency unfolded in a torrent of stream of consciousness tweets that he used to great effect – even if he left his nation stressed and exhausted.

    DeSantis is taking an ostentatious jab at traditional media, which is reviled by many conservatives, by showing he is ready to bypass regular conventions of presidential campaigns. His launch will also create a sharp contrast with Trump’s own rambling, and even boring, campaign opening speech at Mar-a-Lago in November, which lacked any sense of political dynamism.

    The Florida governor will also show how far the GOP has traveled from its roots as a bastion of tradition and the extent to which the internet and the fragmentation of the media into partisan blocks has changed presidential campaigns. In 1979, for instance, Ronald Reagan announced his presidential bid with a grandfatherly speech from a cozy study that looked like the inside of a country club. George W. Bush set off on the road to the White House 20 years later from a farm in Iowa. Now the best way to reach the most GOP voters is online.

    By breaking the mold of presidential announcements, DeSantis is borrowing from Trump’s unconventional playbook. One lesson of the 45th president’s riotous political career is that anything calculated to offend liberals and mainstream media commentators is often wildly popular with grassroots GOP primary voters.

    DeSantis is already running to the right of Trump by targeting what he calls “woke” measures on diversity, equity and inclusion and staking out conservative positions on social issues. Now, he’s also seeking to steal Trump’s reputation as the great disruptor.

    The DeSantis announcement will also help enshrine an emerging power shift in conservative media. His choice of Twitter recognizes the importance of the social network to right-wing voters under Musk and may quicken the shift away from Fox News as the most dynamic platform for the new champions of the conservative movement. It comes after the top-rated Fox News host Tucker Carlson said he’d relaunch his show on Twitter after being ousted from Rupert Murdoch’s primetime line-up after the firm paid $787 million to settle a defamation suit linked to its promotion of election lies and misinformation after the 2020 election.

    With his appearance, DeSantis is driving home his argument that social media networks have sought to oppress the speech of conservatives – a popular viewpoint on the right. In his autobiography “The Courage to be Free,” DeSantis slammed companies like Facebook and Twitter, under its previous owners, which he said made “censorship decisions that always seem to err on the side of leftist orthodoxy, they distort the American political system because so much political speech now takes place on these supposedly open platforms.”

    Still, DeSantis is unlikely to turn his back on Fox, which has offered him plentiful air time – a possible sign the Murdoch family is beginning to tire of the ex-president.

    The DeSantis launch strategy will not come without risks. The untamed environment of Twitter and his association with Musk threaten to undermine the case DeSantis has been implicitly making to Republican voters – that he can offer a more stable and disciplined style of leadership than that shown by Trump in his tempestuous White House term.

    And by avoiding the kind of big, staged political announcement in front of a large crowd, DeSantis risks emboldening Trump’s mocking critique that the Florida governor is draining support by the day, following polls that show him falling further behind the former president, albeit ahead of candidates like South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley.

    The virtual announcement could also fuel claims by Trump that his one-time protégé, whom he now accuses of betrayal for running for president, lacks the political skills to compete on a less controlled stage. A pro-Trump super PAC mocked DeSantis ahead of his online announcement, calling it “one of the most out-of-touch campaign launches in modern history.”

    “The only thing less relatable than a niche campaign launch on Twitter, is DeSantis’ after party at the uber elite Four Seasons resort in Miami,” MAGA Inc., the Trump-aligned super PAC, said in a statement Tuesday.

    People familiar with the DeSantis campaign blueprint, however, indicated the Florida governor would soon launch a relentless blitz of campaign appearances in key swing states, intended to contrast his energy with that of his older rivals, Trump and President Joe Biden.

    Trump’s team and his allies are planning an aggressive operation to try to drown out the DeSantis launch on Wednesday. MAGA Inc. is already slamming the Florida governor for his early support of the Covid-19 vaccine during the pandemic as it seeks to undermine his credibility among conservatives who balked at government health advice.

    But this is yet another sign of how head-spinning the Republican primary could get. After all, it was Trump who once claimed all the credit for developing the vaccine during his presidency. Now his supporters are condemning DeSantis for trying to save lives with it.

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  • Tim Scott, the only Black Republican in the Senate, enters the 2024 GOP primary | CNN Politics

    Tim Scott, the only Black Republican in the Senate, enters the 2024 GOP primary | CNN Politics

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    CNN
     — 

    South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott on Monday formally entered the Republican presidential primary, promising to take on “the radical left” and bring faith and conservative, business-friendly policies to the White House, as he seeks to upend a contest that has so far been dominated by coverage of former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is expected to enter the fray in the coming days.

    The most prominent Black figure in the Republican Party, Scott addressed supporters at his alma mater, Charleston Southern University, in his hometown of North Charleston.

    “I’m the candidate the far-left fears the most. You see, when I cut your taxes, they called me a prop. When I refunded the police, they called me a token. When I pushed back on President Biden, they even called me the ‘n-word,’” Scott said. “I disrupt their narrative. I threaten their control. The truth of my life disrupts their lies.”

    Following the announcement, Scott heads to Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina – states he frequented on his “Faith in America” tour in the run-up to his announcement – before returning to the Hawkeye State next week for GOP Sen. Joni Ernst’s annual “Roast and Ride” gathering.

    Scott, 57, is no stranger to pathbreaking campaigns. In 2010, he became the first Black Republican elected to the US House of Representatives from South Carolina in more than a century. Years later, after being appointed to his Senate seat (he won a special election to retain the seat), Scott made history as the first Black US Senator from his native South Carolina.

    Ahead of his entry into the presidential race, senior campaign officials briefed reporters on their view of the path forward, acknowledging he will need to win over support from Trump and DeSantis, but vowing – in a veiled dig at both – that his candidacy will strike a more optimistic tone and condemn the culture of victimhood and grievance that, as his aides described it, has taken over both parties.

    “Our party and our nation are standing at a time for choosing,” Scott said. “Victimhood or victory? Grievance or greatness? I choose freedom and hope and opportunity.”

    Trump and his team will avoid going after Tim Scott for now, two sources close to the former president told CNN. The directive from Trump has been to stay away from attacks on the South Carolina senator at the moment.

    Last week, the Trump-aligned super PAC, MAGA, Inc., weighed in on Scott’s looming announcement, but used it to level an attack on DeSantis, not Scott.

    The former president used that approach on Monday as he wished Scott “good luck” while taking a shot at DeSantis.

    “Good luck to Senator Tim Scott in entering the Republican Presidential Primary Race. It is rapidly loading up with lots of people, and Tim is a big step up from Ron DeSanctimonious, who is totally unelectable. I got Opportunity Zones done with Tim, a big deal that has been highly successful. Good luck Tim!,” Trump posted on Truth Social.

    The South Carolina senator received a boost on Sunday, less than 24 hours before his kick-off event, when news broke that his colleague Sen. John Thune of South Dakota, the No. 2 Republican in the Senate, planned to endorse him.

    “I think he’d be a great candidate. I’m excited about it. I’ve been encouraging him,” Thune previously told CNN. “I think he’s getting a lot of encouragement from his colleagues. He’s really well thought of and respected.”

    Cory Gardner, the former Republican senator from Colorado and leader of Scott’s aligned super PAC, also argued that his old colleague posed a unique threat to liberal Democrats.

    “I think they’re terrified of him, and he’s right to say that, because he defies every narrative they have,” Gardner said. “And this is exciting for conservatives who believe that they have a candidate who carries their values, can implement their values and do so in a way that will make all Americans proud.”

    In pictures: Presidential candidate Tim Scott

    A senior campaign official said Scott will continue to invest resources and time in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, as the campaign ramps up.

    Though Scott hails from South Carolina, they won’t count on it as a firewall, according to one senior campaign official, who emphasized Scott will have to compete as a top-tier candidate in other early primary and caucus states like New Hampshire and Iowa.

    Even before the official launch, Scott revealed plans to pluck from his deep campaign coffers – with millions now transferred over from his Senate account – through a series of big-dollar ad buys in Iowa and New Hampshire.

    The initial $5.5 million TV ad buy – including broadcast, cable satellite and radio – will air statewide starting Wednesday and run through the first GOP debate in August.

    During the same period, Scott will also launch a seven-figure digital ad campaign.

    “The biggest thing going for Tim Scott right now is $22 million in the bank. He is getting ready to spend $6 million in Iowa and New Hampshire that will garner tremendous name ID, and it’s gonna be a key factor that many of the other candidates are not doing right now,” said Dave Wilson, a South Carolina conservative strategist and former president of the Palmetto Family Council.

    Though he is only officially entering the race now, Scott has already gotten caught in the churn of the campaign season. Shortly after announcing an exploratory committee last month, he was tripped up by questions over his position on a potential national abortion ban.

    After initially sidestepping the matter and refusing to say whether he would back a 15-week ban, Scott told WMUR he would support restrictions beginning at 20 weeks. Days later, though, Scott said in an interview with NBC News that he “would literally sign the most conservative pro-life legislation that they can get through Congress.”

    Pressed on what precisely that meant, given he had applauded DeSantis for signing a six-week ban in Florida, Scott demurred – saying it was a decision for the states to make.

    “I’m not going to talk about six (weeks) or five or seven or 10,” Scott said.

    Back at the senator’s home church near Charleston, there are hundreds of worshipers that see him most weekends.

    “I’ve heard him talk about hope and opportunity for 25 years. It’s who he is. It’s a part of his story. And so I don’t think he’s going to change,” said Greg Suratt, founding pastor of Seacoast Church.

    “I think a misconception that people might have about him is that his niceness, his humility, translates as weakness. And they don’t know the Tim Scott I know, I would like to kind of see it as an iron fist in a velvet glove,” Suratt added, noting that even people who disagree with his politics tend to like him as an individual.

    Scott’s faith and his humble beginnings will be a central theme in his campaign, an aide said. Scott grew up in a single parent household in North Charleston, where his mother worked long hours to keep their family afloat.

    “Think about the kid whose grandmother has to open the stove to heat the home in the middle of the winter. I think to myself, it kind of feels like that now,” Scott said at a town hall in New Hampshire this month. “So many people with our energy prices doubling in just the last couple years, are experiencing a crisis similar to the one that I had when I was just a kid.”

    On his listening tour, Scott said that between the ages of 7 and 14, he “kind of drifted,” failing world geography, civics, English and Spanish in his freshman year of high school. But through the “tireless” encouragement of his mother and mentor, the late John Moniz, a Chick-fil-A manager, Scott says he was able to graduate from Charleston Southern University. He would eventually open his own insurance agency affiliated with Allstate.

    Scott credits Moniz with teaching him that anyone can “succeed beyond their circumstances” if they take responsibility for themselves – a message he repeated in North Charleston.

    “John taught me that anyone, from anywhere, at any time, can rise above their wildest expectations and imagination,” Scott said after giving roses to Moniz’s widow and his own mother at the beginning of his speech. “But first, I had to take responsibility for myself. He told me in the most loving way possible to look in the mirror and to blame myself.”

    Scott’s political career began in 1995, when he ran in a special election to the Charleston City Council, winning a seat he would keep for nearly 15 years. After one term as a state lawmaker, Scott won a US House seat representing South Carolina’s 1st district.

    Fellow presidential candidate and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley then appointed Scott to the US Senate in 2012 to fill a vacancy left by Sen. Jim DeMint’s retirement. He retained the seat in a 2014 special election, was re-elected to a full term in 2016 and later won for a third time last year.

    “To every single mom who struggles to make ends meet, who wonders if her efforts are in vain, they are not,” Scott said after being appointed by Haley.

    During his time in the Senate, Scott has amassed a strictly conservative voting record, but has also led bipartisan police reform talks alongside New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker, a Democrat.

    Those talks have gone on for years now, beginning in the summer of 2020 with then-California Sen. Kamala Harris also involved, but hopes for a comprehensive deal were effectively abandoned in 2021. (The conversations reportedly continue, but there is no legislation currently in the offing.)

    In 2017, his “Investing in Opportunity Act,” which had some Democratic support, was included in the controversial Republican tax cut bill. The provision called for the establishment of “Opportunity Zones,” which would create tax incentives for businesses that invested in parts of the country struggling with poverty and stalled economies.

    “I was one of the lead authors of the Republican tax reform bill that slashed taxes for families, brought jobs and investment back from overseas, and created my signature legislation, the ‘Opportunity Zones,’ that’s brought billions of dollars into the poorest communities that have been left behind,” Scott said in his speech. “That was just one bill. Imagine what we could do with an entire agenda.”

    Still, Democrats in South Carolina welcomed Scott to the race with harsh words about his political record – and an attempt to tie him to the GOP’s far right.

    “We know how dangerous Tea Party extremist Tim Scott is,” South Carolina Democratic Party chair Christale Spain said in a statement. “From promising to sign the most conservative abortion ban possible as president, to doubling down on his role as ‘architect’ of the 2017 GOP tax scam that pushed tax cuts for the ultra-wealthy at the expense of working families, Scott has proven himself to be just as MAGA as the rest of the 2024 field.”

    Though Scott has expressed more openness to working with Democrats than most Republicans in Washington, he also owns one of the most conservative voting records in Congress. He rarely broke with Trump during the latter’s presidency, though he did criticize Trump’s response to White supremacist violence in Charlottesville, Virginia, in 2017.

    “What we want to see from our president is clarity and moral authority,” Scott told Vice News at the time. “And that moral authority is compromised.”

    Scott largely backed off that line, though, after a meeting with Trump in the White House.

    “(Trump) was certainly very clear that the perception that he received on his comments was not exactly what he intended with those comments,” Scott told CBS News.

    This story has been updated with additional reporting and reaction.

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  • George Santos names himself treasurer of his campaign committee | CNN Politics

    George Santos names himself treasurer of his campaign committee | CNN Politics

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    CNN
     — 

    Rep. George Santos has named himself the treasurer of his campaign committee, marking the latest twist in a monthslong saga over puzzling filings his campaign has made with federal regulators.

    The new filing, made late Friday afternoon with the Federal Election Commission, comes a little more than a week after federal prosecutors unveiled a 13-count criminal indictment, charging the New York Republican with wire fraud, fraudulently obtaining Covid-19 unemployment benefits and lying about his personal finances on forms he submitted to the US House of Representatives as a candidate. He has denied wrongdoing and pleaded not guilty to the charges.

    Santos defended the move Saturday, saying it was to “ensure compliance.”

    “My intent is to operate above reproach,” the freshman lawmakers said on Twitter. “We will continue to build our campaign around professionals with subject matter expertise.”

    He added that FEC records will be updated to reflect the change.

    Questions long have swirled about the identity of Santos’ campaign treasurer. This year, Santos’ campaign named a new treasurer identified as Andrew Olson, but federal and state records did not show anyone with that name serving as the treasurer of any other federal committees or any political committees operating in New York state.

    At the time that Olson was added as treasurer, the address associated with him and Santos’ campaign was that of a mixed-use apartment and commercial building in Elmhurst, New York, where the congressman’s sister had resided until earlier this year.

    Earlier this month, the Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington watchdog group, lodged a complaint with the Federal Election Commission questioning Olson’s existence and asking the agency to investigate whether the campaign had potentially violated campaign finance laws with filings that listed that person as treasurer.

    Political committees are not allowed to raise or spend money without a treasurer. Candidates legally can serve as the treasurers of their own campaigns, but it is rare for them to do so.

    In his short time in Washington, Santos’ campaign filings have faced intense scrutiny. They range from questions about dozens of campaign expenses listed at $199.99 – a penny below the threshold for which campaigns are required to retain receipts – to confusion about who was filing the treasurer’s role.

    On January 25, for instance, Santos’ campaign listed a Wisconsin political consultant as replacing the congressman’s longtime treasurer Nancy Marks. But the consultant’s lawyer said the campaign had done so without his authorization, and that his client had turned down the job.

    Then, on January 31, Marks informed the FEC that she had resigned. Later that day, Olson’s electronic signature first appeared on a Santos report.

    Santos has argued in the past that the filings were not his responsibility.

    “I don’t touch any of my FEC stuff, right?” he told CNN back in January. “So don’t be disingenuous and report that I did because you know that every campaign hires fiduciaries.”

    This story has been updated with additional information.

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  • US imposes visa bans on Nigerians who disrupted elections | CNN

    US imposes visa bans on Nigerians who disrupted elections | CNN

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    Reuters
     — 

    The United States has imposed entry restrictions on more Nigerians for undermining the democratic process during the African nation’s 2023 election cycle, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Monday.

    “These individuals have been involved in intimidation of voters through threats and physical violence, the manipulation of vote results, and other activity that undermines Nigeria’s democratic process,” Blinken said in a statement.

    Additional details were not provided.

    The action is the latest in a series of visa restrictions imposed on Nigerian individuals in recent years.

    Nigeria’s election tribunal this month was to begin hearing opposition petitions challenging president-elect Bola Tinubu’s victory in the disputed February presidential vote, court records showed.

    Tinubu, from the ruling All Progressives Congress party, defeated his closest rivals Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party and the Labour Party’s Peter Obi, who have alleged fraud and have launched a court challenge.

    Atiku and Obi want the tribunal to invalidate Tinubu’s victory, arguing that the vote was fraught with irregularities, among other criticisms. Tinubu, who is set to be sworn in on May 29, says he won fairly and wants the petitions dismissed.

    There have been numerous legal challenges to the outcome of previous Nigerian presidential elections, but none has succeeded.

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  • The demographic makeup of the country’s voters continues to shift. That creates headwinds for Republicans | CNN Politics

    The demographic makeup of the country’s voters continues to shift. That creates headwinds for Republicans | CNN Politics

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    CNN
     — 

    Demographic change continued to chip away at the cornerstone of the Republican electoral coalition in 2022, a new analysis of Census data has found.

    White voters without a four-year college degree, the indispensable core of the modern GOP coalition, declined in 2022 as a share of both actual and eligible voters, according to a study of Census results by Michael McDonald, a University of Florida political scientist who specializes in electoral turnout.

    McDonald’s finding, provided exclusively to CNN, shows that the 2022 election continued the long-term trend dating back at least to the 1970s of a sustained fall in the share of the votes cast by working-class White voters who once constituted the brawny backbone of the Democratic coalition, but have since become the absolute foundation of Republican campaign fortunes.

    As non-college Whites have receded in the electorate over that long arc, non-White adults and, to a somewhat lesser extent, Whites with at least a four-year college degree, have steadily increased their influence. “This is a trend that is baked into the demographic change of the country, so [it] is likely going to accelerate over the next ten years,” says McDonald, author of the recent book “From Pandemic to Insurrection: Voting in the 2020 Presidential Election.”

    From election to election, the impact of the changing composition of the voter pool is modest. The slow but steady decline of non-college Whites, now the GOP’s best group, did not stop Donald Trump from winning the presidency in 2016 – nor does it preclude him from winning it again in 2024. And, compared to their national numbers, these non-college voters remain a larger share of the electorate in many of the key states that will likely decide the 2024 presidential race (particularly Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) and control of the Senate (including seats Democrats are defending in Montana, Ohio and West Virginia.)

    But even across those states, these voters are shrinking as a share of the electorate. And McDonald’s analysis of the 2022 results shows that the non-college White share of the total vote is highly likely to decline again in 2024, while the combined share of non-Whites and Whites with a college degree, groups much more favorable to Democrats, is virtually certain to increase. The political effect of this decline is analogous to turning up the resistance on a treadmill: as their best group shrinks, Republicans must run a little faster just to stay in place.

    Especially ominous for Republicans is that the share of the vote cast by these blue-collar Whites declined slightly in 2022 even though turnout among those voters was relatively strong, while minority turnout fell sharply, according to McDonald’s analysis. The reason for those seemingly incongruous trends is that even solid turnout among the non-college Whites could not offset the fact that they are continuing to shrink in the total pool of eligible voters, as American society grows better-educated and more racially diverse.

    Given that minority turnout fell off, the fact that the non-college White share of the total 2022 vote still slightly declined “has to be a huge cause for concern for Republicans at this point,” says Tom Bonier, chief executive of TargetSmart, a Democratic political targeting firm. If more of the growing pool of eligible minority voters turn out in 2024, he says, “it is not unreasonable to expect” that the non-college White voters so critical to GOP fortunes could experience an even “steeper decline” in their share of the total votes cast next year.

    That prospect remains a central concern for the dwindling band of anti-Trump Republicans who fear that the former president has dangerously narrowed the GOP’s appeal by identifying it so unreservedly with the cultural priorities and grievances of working-class White voters, many of them older and living outside of the nation’s largest and most economically productive metropolitan areas.

    McDonald’s “data support what is self-evident: that Trumpism peaked in 2016, and that it leads to a dead end,” says former US Rep. Carlos Curbelo, a Florida Republican. “We saw this in 2018 when Republicans lost the House; we saw it in 2020 when they lost the presidency and the Senate, and we saw it in last year when Republicans were supposed to have big gains in both chambers and [did not]. All of these failures can be attributed to Trumpism. These data just confirm what is visible to the naked eye.”

    Cornell Belcher, a Democratic pollster, says these slow but steady long-term changes in the electorate leave him convinced that the ceiling for Trump’s potential support in 2024 is no more than 46% of the vote. But Democrats, he believes, still face the risk that the clear majority in the electorate opposed to Trumpism will not turn out in sufficient numbers or splinter to third-party options if they do. Both dangers, he argues, are most pronounced for the diverse younger generations that have never found President Joe Biden very inspiring and have not received sufficient messaging and organizing attention from Democrats.

    The political impact of those younger voters, he warns, could be blunted by the proliferation of red state laws making it more difficult to vote and Democrats focusing too much “on chasing this mythical [White] swing voter that doesn’t look like that Millennial or Gen Z voter we are relying on.”

    Overall voter turnout in 2022 was high compared to almost all previous midterms, but below the peak reached in 2018, when a greater share of eligible voters turned out than in any midterm election since 1914, according to McDonald’s calculations.

    Turnout last year fell most sharply among minorities: while 43% of all eligible non-White voters showed up in 2018, that slipped to just 35% last year, McDonald calculates. Turnout among eligible college-educated White voters also dropped from an astronomical 74% in 2018 to just over 69% last year. White voters without a four-year college degree actually came closest to matching their elevated 2018 performance, slipping only slightly from just over 45% then to about 43% last year.

    But turnout is only one of the two factors that shape how large a share of actual voters each group comprises, which is the number that really matters in determining election outcomes. The other factor is how large a share of the pool of potential eligible voters each group represents. Turnout, in effect, is the numerator and the share of eligible voters the denominator that combined produce the share of the total vote each group casts during every election.

    As McDonald found, the long-term trends in the eligible voter pool – the denominator in our equation – continued unabated in 2022. Whites without a college degree fell to just over 41% of eligible potential voters. That was down 3.2 percentage points from their share of the eligible voter population in 2018 – which was itself down exactly 3.2 percentage points from their share in 2014. In turn, from 2014 to 2022, college-educated White voters slightly increased their share of the eligible voter pool and minorities significantly increased from 30.5% then to nearly 35% now.

    Netting together both the turnout results and these shifts in the eligible voter pool, McDonald found that working-class White voters in 2022 declined as a share overall, whether compared either to the last few midterm elections or the most recent presidential contests.

    In 2022, Whites without a college degree cast 38.3% of all votes, he found. That was down from 39.3% in 2018 and more than 43% in 2014, according to his calculations. That finding also represented a continued decline from just over 42% of the vote when Trump won the 2016 presidential election and 39.9% in 2020 – the first time non-college Whites had fallen below 40% of the total presidential electorate in Census figures.

    Whites with at least a four-year college degree were the big gainers in 2022: McDonald found they cast nearly 36% of all votes last year, compared to a little over-one-third in both 2018 and 2014 and a little less than that in the 2020 presidential year. Burdened by lower turnout, the non-White share of the total vote slipped to just over one-fourth, down slightly from 2018, but still higher than in the 2014 midterms. The minority share of the total vote was considerably larger in 2020, reaching nearly three-in-ten in Census figures.

    All of this extends very consistent long-term trends. Census data analyzed by the non-partisan States of Change project show that non-college Whites have fallen from around two-thirds of the total vote under Ronald Reagan, to about three-fifths under Bill Clinton, to less than half under Barack Obama, to the current level of just under two-fifths. Over those same decades, college-educated Whites have grown from about two-in-ten to three-in-ten voters, while minorities have increased from a little over one-in-ten then to nearly three-in-ten now.

    Other respected data sources differ on the share of the total vote comprised by these three big groups: the Pew Validated Voter study and the estimates by Catalist, a Democratic targeting firm, both put the share of the vote cast in 2020 by non-college Whites slightly higher, in the range of 42-44%.

    But both also show the same core pattern as the Census results do, with the share of the total vote cast by those non-college Whites declining by about two percentage points every four years. The Edison Research exit polls conducted for a consortium of media organizations, including CNN, changed its methodology in a way that makes long-term comparisons impossible. But, similarly to McDonald, the exits found the non-college White share of the total vote declining to 39% in 2022 from 41% in 2018, with minorities also slightly falling over that period, and college-educated Whites growing.

    The trend lines that McDonald documented for last year suggest it’s a reasonable prediction that non-college Whites will again decline as a share of total voters by two points over the period from 2020 to 2024. That would push their share of the national 2024 vote down to below 38%, with more minority voters likely filling most of that gap and the college-educated Whites growing more modestly to offset the rest.

    McDonald says the basic dynamic reconfiguring the voting pool is that many Baby Boomers and their elders are aging out of the electorate. That’s both because more of them are dying or they are reaching an advanced age where turnout tends to decline, either for infirmity or other obstacles. Those older generations are preponderantly White (about three-fourths of seniors are White), and fewer have college degrees, which were not as essential to economic success in those years, McDonald points out. Meanwhile, a larger share of young adults today hold four-year degrees, and the youngest generations aging into the electorate every two years are far more racially diverse. According to calculations by William Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Metro think tank, young people of color now comprise almost exactly half of all Americans who turn 18 and age into the electorate each year.

    “We are right now at the teetering edge of the influence of the baby boomers,” says McDonald. “They are just starting to enter those twilight years in their turnout rates, while other [more diverse] groups are maturing. So we are right at that cusp – that critical point of where things are going to start changing.”

    The impact of these changes on the outcomes of elections, as McDonald says, is very incremental, “like the proverbial frog in the boiling water.” One way to understand that dynamic is to assume that Whites without a college degree on the one hand, and minorities and college-educated Whites on the other, all split their vote at roughly the same proportions as they have in recent elections. If the former group declines as a share of the electorate by two points from 2020-2024 and the latter groups increase by an equal amount, that change alone would enlarge Biden’s margin of victory in the two-party vote from 4.6 percentage points to 5.8, Bonier calculates. Republicans would need to increase their vote share with some or all of those groups just to get back to the deficit Trump faced in 2020 – much less to overcome it.

    Ruy Teixeira, a long-time Democratic electoral analyst who has become a staunch critic of his party, argues exactly that kind of shift in voting preferences could offset the change in the electorate’s composition – and create a real threat for Biden. Even though Biden is aggressively highlighting his efforts to create blue-collar jobs through “manufacturing and infrastructure projects that are starting to get off the ground,” Teixiera recently wrote, a “sharp swing against the incumbent administration by White working-class voters seems like a very real possibility.”

    Teixeira, now a nonresident senior fellow at the conservative American Enterprise Institute, also maintains Democrats face the risk Republicans can extend the unexpected gains Trump registered in 2020 with non-White voters without a college degree, especially Hispanics.

    Curbelo, the former congressman, shares Teixeira’s belief that Democratic liberalism on some social issues like crime is creating an opening for Republicans to gain ground among culturally conservative Hispanics. “If they are not careful, they can jeopardize their potential gains from Republicans doubling down on Trumpism by alienating themselves from minority voters who may identify with some of the [Democrats’] economic policies but who do not necessarily identify with the party’s victimhood narrative about minorities,” Curbelo says.

    Still, Curbelo warns that Republicans are unlikely to achieve the gains possible with minority voters so long as they are stamped so decisively by Trump’s polarizing image. And polling has consistently found that while many non-college Hispanic voters hold more moderate views on social issues than college-educated White liberals, those minority voters are not nearly as conservative as core GOP groups, like blue-collar Whites or evangelical Christians.

    As Teixeira has forcefully argued in recent years, such demographic change doesn’t ensure doom for Republicans or success for Democrats. Among other things, that change is unevenly distributed around the country, and the small state bias of both the Electoral College and the two-senators-per-state rule magnifies the influence of sparsely populated interior states where these shifts have been felt much more lightly.

    Yet, even so, the long-term change in the electorate’s composition, along with the Democrats’ growing strength among white-collar suburban voters, largely explains why the party has won the popular vote in seven of the past eight presidential elections – something no party has done since the formation of the modern party system in 1828.

    And even though Whites without a college degree exceed their share of the national vote in the key Rust Belt battlegrounds of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, their share of the vote is shrinking along the same trajectory of about 2-3 points every four years in those states too, according to analysis by Frey. Meanwhile, in the Sun Belt battlegrounds of Georgia, Arizona and Nevada, more rapid growth in the minority population means that blue-collar Whites will likely comprise a smaller portion of the eligible voter pool than they do nationally.

    Trump, with the exception of his beachhead among blue-collar minorities, has now largely locked the GOP into a position of needing to squeeze bigger margins out of shrinking groups, particularly non-college Whites. It’s entirely possible that Trump or another Republican nominee can meet that test well enough to win back the White House in 2024, especially given the persistent public disenchantment with Biden’s performance. But McDonald’s 2022 data shows why relying on a coalition tilted so heavily toward those non-college Whites becomes just a little tougher for the GOP in each presidential race.

    While Trump or another Republican certainly can win in 2024, Bonier says, “he has reshaped the party in such a way that they have a very narrow path to victory.”

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  • Opposition parties deliver surprise challenge to military leaders in Thai election | CNN

    Opposition parties deliver surprise challenge to military leaders in Thai election | CNN

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    Bangkok, Thailand
    CNN
     — 

    Thai voters have dealt a surprise blow to the ruling military-backed government in the country’s general election, throwing their support behind progressive anti-establishment parties that could change the course of the kingdom’s politics after years of military rule.

    With 97% of votes counted before an unexplained pause at almost 2 a.m. local time Monday, the Move Forward party was projected to win 148 seats, with Pheu Thai party in second place with 138 seats.

    In the early hours of Monday, Move Forward’s leader Pita Limjaroenrat, who rode a wave of youth support on social media, tweeted his readiness to assume the leadership: “We believe that our beloved Thailand can be better, and change is possible if we start today … our dream and hope are simple and straightforward, and no matter if you would agree or disagree with me, I will be your prime minister. And no matter if you have voted for me or have not, I will serve you.”

    But it’s not clear who will take power.

    The junta-era constitution gives the establishment-dominated upper house a significant say in who can ultimately form a government.

    The Secretary General of the Election Commission of Thailand (ECT) will hold a news conference at 10:30 a.m. local time Monday to explain progress with the vote count.

    Before counting paused, the Bhumjai Thai party was in third position, projected to win around 70 seats, while Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha’s party potentially would grab about 12 seats.

    Prayut’s rise from military coup leader to prime minister has been marred with controversy, growing authoritarianism and widening inequality. Hundreds of activists have been arrested during his leadership under draconian laws such as sedition or lese majeste.

    His military government’s mismanagement in handling of the coronavirus pandemic and economy also amplified calls for Prayut to step down and continued well into 2021.

    He survived several no-confidence votes in parliament during his term which attempted to remove him from power.

    The election is the first since youth-led mass pro-democracy protests in 2020 and only the second since a military coup in 2014 ousted an elected government, restoring a conservative clique that has pulled the strings in the kingdom’s turbulent politics for decades.

    Before the weekend vote, Pheu Thai had topped opinion polls, campaigning on a populist platform that includes raising the minimum wage, welfare cash handouts and keeping the military out of politics.

    It’s the party of the billionaire Shinawatra family – a controversial political dynasty headed by former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

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  • Polls open in Turkey’s fiercely fought elections that could unseat Erdogan | CNN

    Polls open in Turkey’s fiercely fought elections that could unseat Erdogan | CNN

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    Istanbul
    CNN
     — 

    Polls have opened in Turkey’s fiercely fought presidential and parliamentary elections that could bring an end to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s 20-year rule.

    Sunday’s race poses the biggest challenge yet to Turkey’s strongman leader. He faces economic headwinds and criticism that the impact of the devastating February 6 earthquake was made worse by lax building controls and a shambolic rescue effort.

    His main opponent is CHP leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, who represents an election coalition of six opposition parties. For the first time, Turkey’s factious opposition has coalesced around a single candidate.

    A candidate must win over 50% of the vote on Sunday night in order to be elected. Otherwise Turkey will head to a run-off on May 28.

    Kılıçdaroğlu, a mild mannered 74-year-old former bureaucrat, has promised to fix Turkey’s faltering economy and restore democratic institutions compromised by a slide to authoritarianism during Erdogan’s tenure.

    Erdogan has been extolling the virtues of his long rule, campaigning on a platform of stability, independent foreign policy and continuing to bolster Turkey’s defense industry. Recently, he raised the wages of government workers by 45% and lowered the retirement age.

    Over the last two years, Turkey’s currency has plummeted and prices have ballooned, prompting a cost of living crisis that has chipped away at Erdogan’s conservative, working class support base.

    When a vicious earthquake on February 6 laid waste to large parts of southeast Turkey, Erdogan’s battled political aftershocks. His critics chastized him for a botched rescue effort and lax building controls that his ruling Justice and Development (AK) party presided over for two decades.

    A view of blank ballots at a polling station in Ankara, Turkey May 14, 2023.

    In the weeks after the quake, the government rounded up dozens of contractors, construction inspectors and project managers for violating building rules. Critics dismissed the move as scapegoating.

    The government has also apologized for “mistakes” that were made in the immediate aftermath of the disaster.

    The quake claimed over 51,000 lives in Turkey and neighboring Syrian. Thousands are still unaccounted for, with unmarked graves peppering the southeastern Turkish countryside.

    On Thursday, Kılıçdaroğlu was boosted further by the late withdrawal from the race of a minor candidate, Muharrem Ince. Ince had low polling numbers but some opposition figures feared he would split the anti-Erdogan vote.

    Turkey holds elections every five years. More than 1.8 million voters living abroad already cast their votes on April 17, Turkish newspaper Daily Sabah reported Wednesday, citing the country’s deputy foreign minister. Over 65 million Turks are eligible to vote.

    The Supreme Election Council (YSK) chief Ahmet Yener said last month that at least 1 million voters in quake-stricken zones are expected not to vote this year amid displacement.

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  • Thai opposition take on kingdom’s conservative cliques as voting begins | CNN

    Thai opposition take on kingdom’s conservative cliques as voting begins | CNN

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    CNN
     — 

    Millions of Thais are heading to the polls on Sunday for a general election where opposition parties are hoping to ride a wave of frustration over the military’s stranglehold on the levers of power and its handling of the economy.

    The election is the first since youth-led mass pro-democracy protests in 2020 and only the second since a military coup in 2014 ousted an elected government, restoring a conservative clique that has pulled the strings in the kingdom’s turbulent politics for decades.

    Polls opened at 8 a.m. Bangkok time (9 p.m. ET Saturday), with election authorities expecting a high turnout.

    This year’s election will see some 52 million eligible voters elect 500 members to the House of Representatives in Thailand’s bicameral system which was heavily rejigged through a new constitution written by the military that seized power nine years ago.

    Each voter has two ballots, one for a local constituency representative and one for their pick of candidates for the national party, known as party-list MPs.

    The junta-era constitution gives the establishment-dominated upper house a significant say in who can ultimately form a government so opposition parties must win by a strong margin.

    Leading that charge is a young generation of Thais yearning for change and willing to tackle taboo topics such as the military’s role and even, for some of them, royal reform.

    The country’s powerful conservative establishment is relying on its own influential voter base that supports parties connected to the military, monarchy and the ruling elites, many of them in the capital Bangkok.

    Lined against them are more progressive and populist leaning opposition parties campaigning for democratic reforms that have a history of attracting more working class voters in the city and rural regions as well as a new generation of politically awakened young people.

    Topping opinion polls is the opposition Pheu Thai party which is fielding three candidates for prime minister and campaigning on a populist platform that includes raising the minimum wage, welfare cash handouts and keeping the military out of politics.

    It’s the party of the billionaire Shinawatra family – a controversial political dynasty headed by former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

    Thaksin, a former policeman turned billionaire telecoms tycoon, and his sister Yingluck ran governments that were ousted in military coups. Both also live in exile, with Thai courts sentencing them to prison on corruption charges in their absence.

    Thaksin’s youngest daughter, 36-year-old Paetongtarn is standing as a prime ministerial candidate.

    Paetongtarn only entered politics three years ago but has presented herself as hailing from a new generation to connect with young Thais. She regularly attended rallies while pregnant and went back to campaigning days after giving birth.

    Enormously popular among the rural and urban working classes, the party is aiming for a landslide victory. Parties associated with Thaksin have won every Thai election since 2001.

    Also in the mix for Pheu Thai is Srettha Thavisin, a 59-year-old real estate tycoon who wants to focus on fixing income inequality, promoting LGBTQ+ rights including same-sex marriage and rooting out corruption while boosting the sluggish economy.

    But there is another opposition force at play called Move Forward, a party that is hugely popular among young Thais for its radical reform agenda.

    Analysts have called it “a game changer” – its candidates are campaigning on deep structural changes to how Thailand is run, including reforms to the military and the kingdom’s strict lese majeste law – which prohibits criticism of the royal family and makes any open debate about its role fraught with risk.

    Heading the party is Pita Limcharoenrat, 42, a Harvard alumni with a background in business. His eloquent campaign speeches and reform platform have earned him a massive following and he is one of the top picks for prime minister in opinion polls.

    Also gunning for the top job is incumbent Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha – this time with a new political party, the United Thai Nation. The former army chief who masterminded the 2014 coup has now been in power for nine years.

    While his party lost out to Pheu Thai in the number of seats won in the 2019 election, Prayut still became Prime Minister after gathering enough support from coalition parties to form a government.

    But despite his poor performance in opinion polls, analysts have cautioned against underestimating him given his links to the country’s elites.

    His rise from military coup leader to prime minister has been marred with controversy, growing authoritarianism and widening inequality.

    Hundreds of activists have been arrested during his leadership under draconian laws such as sedition or lese majeste.

    His military government’s mismanagement in handling of the coronavirus pandemic and economy also amplified calls for Prayut to step down and continued well into 2021.

    He survived several no-confidence votes in parliament during his term which attempted to remove him from power.

    If elected again, Prayut can only serve two years as the constitution limits a term in office to a maximum eight years.

    Another candidate who could see his fortunes rise in any post-election wrangling is former army chief Prawit Wongsuwan, first deputy prime minister and former brother in arms with Prayut.

    Prawit, a political veteran, is now leader of Prayut’s old party Palang Pracharat.

    The Bhumjaithai party’s Anutin Charnvirakul could also prove influential in any post-election deals. Health Minister Anutin steered the country through the pandemic and was behind landmark legislation that decriminalized cannabis in the country last year.

    The head of the biggest party may not necessarily lead Thailand, or even form a government, because the country’s electoral system is heavily weighted in favor of the conservative establishment.

    Parties winning more than 25 seats can nominate their candidate for prime minister. Those candidates will be put to a vote, with the whole 750-seat bicameral legislature voting.

    To be prime minister, a candidate must have a majority in both houses – or at least 375 votes.

    However, the 250-seat member Senate is likely to play a key role in deciding the next government of Thailand and, because it is chosen entirely by the military, it will likely vote for a pro-military party.

    That means an opposition party or coalition need almost three times as many votes in the lower house as a military party to be able to elect the next leader.

    Polls are scheduled to close at 5 p.m. Bangkok time (6 a.m. ET) and vote counting will begin shortly after. Observers say that early results can be expected at midnight in Bangkok – but it could be weeks or even months until Thailand sees a new prime minister.

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  • Erdogan’s rival has gone through a political makeover ahead of the elections | CNN

    Erdogan’s rival has gone through a political makeover ahead of the elections | CNN

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    Editor’s Note: A version of this story appears in CNN’s Meanwhile in the Middle East newsletter, a three-times-a-week look inside the region’s biggest stories. Sign up here.



    CNN
     — 

    Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the main opposition candidate in Turkey’s presidential election, is decidedly calm and mild-mannered in his bid to end the two-decade rule of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

    Much of his campaign messaging has been delivered from his quintessentially Turkish middle-class home and posted on Twitter, in videos that some observers have called his “kitchen diaries.”

    Seated, often with tea in an “ince belli”, a Turkish teacup, he lays out his key campaign promises, announces members of his potential coalition, and sometimes just speaks candidly to the people, virtually welcoming the public into his home.

    Such gestures are in stark contrast to the elitist image he and his party once had. Analysts say the desire to appeal to today’s voters has seen the presidential candidate undergo an image makeover over the years. His messages now target Turkey’s middle class and the downtrodden, the very constituency that Erdogan has always championed.

    But Erdogan is now seen by his critics as being responsible for the economic turmoil the country is facing, largely due to his inability to control runaway inflation, an issue that polls have said is high on the agenda of voters who go to the ballot box on Sunday. Inflation in the country was at 43% in April, down from its peak of 85% last October.

    For Erdogan’s opponents, that’s fodder for campaigns against him.

    Promising to fix Turkey’s faltering economy has been a cornerstone of Kilicdaroglu’s campaign. In a video posted on Twitter on Friday, he stood in the kitchen and held up staples like bread, eggs, and yogurt, reminding viewers how much their price had soared in a year. In a separate four-second clip, he says: “Today, if you are poorer than yesterday, the only reason is Erdogan.”

    Gulfem Saydan Sanver, a political communication expert who works with several politicians in Kilicdaroglu’s center-left Republican People’s Party (CHP), said the kitchen has become a “symbol” of the candidate, “that he is living in a humble (life), and he is dealing with daily life problems of the ordinary Turkish citizens.”

    “(He) wanted to show that Erdogan is the one who has forgotten about the problems of the lower income families,” she said.

    His use of Twitter to reach the electorate may not have been out of choice, however. The majority of mainstream media outlets in the country are controlled by government loyalists, prompting the opposition to lean heavily into social media messaging.

    When he took control of the CHP in 2010, Kilicdaroglu had an image problem, experts say. His party was staunchly secular and fiercely nationalistic. Today, however, it has unified disparate political players, is trying to court the Kurdish vote and has even welcomed defectors from Erdogan’s Islamist-leaning Ak Party.

    According to some of those who’ve known him, the career bureaucrat turned politician was seen as elitist and disconnected from the working class as he took control of the party, much as the CHP itself was perceived. Erdogan’s government capitalized on that.

    “The government used very much the people-versus-elite distinction… in order to discredit the opposition by showing them as part of some kind of power elite,” said Murat Somer, a political science professor at Koc University in Istanbul. That created a “very hard, ossified, negative image that the opposition could not get rid of,” he told CNN.

    The home videos would have been hard to imagine in the early days of his political career since his natural inclination is to keep his private life to himself, said Mehmet Karli, CHP member and longtime adviser to Kilicdaroglu.

    “He has come to understand over the course of (his) … political life that private and public are very much intermeshed, especially if one is leading a movement,” he told CNN.

    But the soft-spoken demeanor portrayed from his home could have downsides.

    Sanver said the kitchen videos had the potential to come off as too soft for some of the tougher foreign policy issues in Turkey – including ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin and the United States.

    Erdogan has been able to leverage personal relationships and has shown effective leadership in one of the world’s most intractable issues. Alongside the United Nations, he managed to broker a deal on grain exports between Ukraine and Russia, helping prevent a global food crisis.

    “It’s one of the critiques I had,” Sanver, who has met with Kilicdaroglu throughout his campaign, told CNN. “He needs to look strong because Erdogan is also very strong.”

    Delivering some addresses from his office may have helped establish a more serious persona while showing he’s still a different leader than Erdogan, she said.

    In a country where ethnic and religious identity often plays a part in the public discourse and is exploited by some politicians, Kilicdaroglu has moved swiftly to deprive his opponents of ammunition.

    In a video posted on Twitter from his office last month, he declared to the electorate that he belongs to the Alevi sect, a minority faith group from the east of Turkey that has for years complained about persecution in the majority Sunni Muslim country. The video was watched 36 million times.

    “We will no longer talk about identities; we will talk about achievements,” he said. “We will no longer talk about divisions and differences; we will speak of our commonality and our common dreams. Will you join this campaign for this change?”

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  • House Republicans allege Biden family members received millions in payments from foreign entities in new bank records report | CNN Politics

    House Republicans allege Biden family members received millions in payments from foreign entities in new bank records report | CNN Politics

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    Washington
    CNN
     — 

    House Oversight Chairman James Comer laid out new details to support allegations that members of Joe Biden’s family including his son Hunter received millions of dollars in payments from foreign entities in China and Romania including when Biden was vice president, according to a memo obtained by CNN.

    New bank records cited in the memo were obtained by the committee through a subpoena and include payments made to companies tied to Hunter Biden. Republicans also alleged that Hunter Biden used his familial connections to help facilitate a meeting in 2016 between a Serbian running for United Nations Secretary-General and then-national security adviser to the vice president Colin Kahl.

    The foreign payments raise questions about Hunter Biden’s business activities while his father was vice president, but the committee does not suggest any illegality about the payments from foreign sources. The bank records by themselves also do not indicate the purpose of the payments that were made.

    The memo marks Comer’s most direct attempt to substantiate his allegations that Biden family members have enriched themselves off the family name. Comer has suggested that Biden may have been improperly influenced by the financial dealings, particularly by his family’s foreign business partners.

    But the latest report does not show any payments made directly to Joe Biden, either as vice president or after leaving office.

    Comer has been publicly teasing information for months about the paper trail committee Republicans have uncovered through subpoenas sent to multiple banks and trips to the Treasury Department to review records.

    Comer and other Republicans on the committee held a press conference Wednesday morning to tout their findings.

    “These people didn’t come to Hunter Biden because he understood world politics or that he was experienced in it, or that he understood Chinese businesses. They wanted him for the access his last name gave him,” Rep. Nancy Mace, a South Carolina Republican, said during the news conference.

    On Wednesday, Comer was asked about specific policy decisions Biden made while president or vice president that may have been directly influenced by these foreign payments. Comer failed to name any and instead pointed to then-vice president Biden traveling around the world and discussing foreign aid in the last year of the Obama administration, and added they think there are decisions Biden made as president that “put China first and America last.” Comer said the committee “will get into more of those later.”

    Ahead of the memo’s release, White House spokesperson Ian Sams said in a statement to CNN, “Congressman Comer has a history of playing fast and loose with the facts and spreading baseless innuendo while refusing to conduct his so-called ‘investigations’ with legitimacy. He has hidden information from the public to selectively leak and promote his own hand-picked narratives as part of his overall effort to lob personal attacks at the President and his family.”

    Abbe Lowell, counsel for Hunter Biden, said in a statement, “Today’s so-called “revelations” are retread, repackaged misstatements of perfectly proper meetings and business by private citizens. Instead of redoing old investigations that found no evidence of wronging by Mr. Biden, Rep. Comer should do the same examination of the many entities of former President Trump and his family members.”

    The top Democrat on the House Oversight Committee, Rep. Jamie Raskin, said in a statement to CNN, “Chairman Comer has failed to provide factual evidence to support his wild accusations about the President. He continues to bombard the public with innuendo, misrepresentations, and outright lies, recycling baseless claims from stories that were debunked years ago.”

    Bank records cited in the committee’s memo show that within five weeks of then-Vice President Biden’s meeting with Romanian President Klaus Iohannis in 2015, a Romanian who Hunter Biden was doing legal consulting for, Gabriel Popoviciu, started sending money to Rob Walker, a business associate of Hunter’s.

    Walker received more than $3 million from November 2015 to May 2017 and wired approximately $1 million in various installments to Hunter Biden, his business associate James Gillian, and Hallie Biden, the widow of the president’s oldest son, Beau Biden who died in May 2015. Hallie Biden and Hunter Biden were romantically involved for a period after Beau’s death.

    It has long been known that Hunter Biden did legal work for Popoviciu, a wealthy Romanian business executive who was convicted in 2016 on corruption charges.

    Comer’s memo raises questions about why Popoviciu was paying a Biden family business associate directly instead of the law firm where Hunter Biden worked at the time or the other firm Hunter reportedly referred Popoviciu to.

    Former President Donald Trump’s former lawyer Rudy Giuliani was also involved with Popoviciu, which Comer’s memo does not mention.

    Committee Republicans obtained the bank records from subpoenas to four different banks.

    The report also alleges that in 2016, Vuk Jeremic, a Serbian politician who was running for UN secretary-general, tried to use his business relationship with Hunter Biden and his associates to get a meeting with Kahl, who was then an aide in Biden’s vice president’s office.

    In a June 2016 email, Jeremic wrote to Hunter Biden and a business associate, Eric Schwerin, asking to “meet with VPOTUS National Security Advisor Colin Kahl” related to the UN secretary-general election.

    Schwerin instructed Hunter Biden to “Think about how you want to respond,” according to the report.

    In a July 2016 email, Jeremic followed up via email saying, “[m]y meeting with Colin did not last very long, but didn’t go too bad, I think. What is suboptimal is that OVP seems to be outside the decision-making loop on the UNSG elections issue. Colin promised to get better informed on what’s going on at the moment,” according to the report.

    Republicans said they intend to pursue more communications related to the matter, but concluded it appears that “a Biden administration official met with Jeremic to discuss the UN Secretary General election at the direction of Hunter Biden and/or his business associates.”

    Kahl did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Jeremic’s attorneys told the committee in a letter last month he would not cooperate with a request for documents and testimony due to separation of powers issues and because House rules limit subpoenas to people “within the United States.”

    The memo also alleges that two Chinese nationals made payments of $100,000 to Hunter Biden’s professional corporation through a Chinese-backed energy company. Republicans claim that at least one of those individuals had ties to the Communist Party of China.

    The memo alleges that those two individuals were connected to CEFC, a Chinese energy conglomerate, had a business relationship with Hunter Biden.

    Committee Republicans claim one of the individuals “used CEFC to bribe and corruptly influence foreign officials.”

    The memo includes a copy of a bank transaction showing that on August 4, 2017, CEFC Infrastructure wired $100,000 to Owasco P.C, Hunter Biden’s professional corporation.

    The memo also includes details from the bank records on how money was moved between companies, including a $100,000 payment to one of Hunter Biden’s companies that was then funded by a Chinese based firm tied to the CEFC, the Chinese energy conglomerate.

    Comer alleges the transaction “disproves President Biden’s claim that his family received no money from China.”

    In the report, the committee acknowledged there “exist legitimate commercial transactions with China-based entities and individuals.”

    “However, the pattern of behavior engaged in by the Bidens and their Chinese counterparties—memorialized in relevant bank records—signals an attempt to layer companies and cloud the source of money,” the committee alleges.

    Comer has previously revealed that members of Biden’s family received just over $1 million indirectly from State Energy HK Limited, a Chinese company.

    Senate Republicans in 2020 first detailed how Walker made wire transfers to companies associated with Hunter Biden and president’s brother, James, after receiving a $3 million wire from the Chinese company.

    The latest GOP memo claims Walker also sent some of that money to Hallie Biden and an unknown bank account identified as “Biden.”

    Committee Republicans said they are continuing to trace bank records and have written to additional witnesses involved in certain transactions to request documents as well as interviews.

    According to the report, Republicans intend to pursue legislative changes – a key step needed to justify their investigation if fights over subpoenas head to court.

    Those changes include laws that require additional reporting about the finances of a president or vice president’s family members, public disclosure of foreign transactions involving the family members of senior elected officials and an expedited law enforcement review of any suspicious bank activity reports related to a president or vice president’s immediately family members.

    Comer left the door open on whether his committee would investigate the foreign business dealings of former President Donald Trump and his family ahead of making any legislative recommendations to address influence peddling. To date however, Comer has not looked into Trump’s financial dealings or pursued an investigation into the classified documents that he had at Mar-a-Lago.

    “We’re going to look at everything when we get ready to introduce the legislation to ban influence peddling” Comer said. “This has been a pattern for a long time. Republicans and Democrats have both complained about Presidents’ families receiving money.”

    On the foreign business dealings of Trump’s son-in law, Jared Kushner, specifically, Comer said, “I’m not saying whether I agreed with what he did or not, but I actually know what his businesses are. What are the Biden businesses?”

    This story has been updated with additional reporting.

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  • ‘A Trump tribute act’: Meet Suella Braverman, the commander-in-chief of Britain’s culture wars | CNN

    ‘A Trump tribute act’: Meet Suella Braverman, the commander-in-chief of Britain’s culture wars | CNN

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    London
    CNN
     — 

    Late last year, after a breakneck ascent of British politics put her in charge of the country’s migration, crime and national security agenda, Suella Braverman revealed her political fantasy.

    “I would love to (see) a front page of The Telegraph with a plane taking off to Rwanda,” the home secretary (interior minister) told that newspaper, referring to her controversial efforts to deport asylum-seekers to the central African nation. “That’s my dream. That’s my obsession.”

    Braverman is no stranger to the front pages. Her self-proclaimed “obsession” with curbing migration – and the loaded and occasionally inflammatory language she uses to address it – has attracted forceful criticism from international agencies, lawyers, rights groups and many of her own colleagues, making her arguably Britain’s most divisive politician.

    But among Conservative Party members and the chief architects of Brexit, she is a star; someone who is prepared to say and do controversial things in pursuit of a singular goal.

    “She’s the cutting edge of the populist, radical right-wing strain in the Conservative Party,” Tim Bale, a professor of politics at Queen Mary University in London, and the author of books on the party, told CNN.

    “In a way, that allows her to say what some Conservative MPs would think of as the unsayable.”

    Braverman has railed against what she calls an “invasion” of migrants, holding “values which are at odds with our country” – and suggested she would break international law to deport them from Britain.

    And she is an equally furious culture warrior, borrowing rhetoric from the American right when lambasting “woke” culture, transgender rights and climate protesters.

    But Braverman has speedily made herself a central figure in British politics; the assassin of Liz Truss’s premiership and the kingmaker of Rishi Sunak’s, she has made evident her desire to ultimately enter Downing Street as prime minister herself – a prospect that sits uneasily with much of the country’s political establishment.

    Braverman, who evangelizes on the benefits of Brexit and has made migration curbs her political mission, has a backstory that seems to teem with contradictions.

    She is the daughter of migrants, who wants to cut net migration to Britain to the “tens of thousands.” Her parents, both of Indian origin, arrived in the country from Kenya and Mauritius “with very little” in the 1960s.

    She was a practicing lawyer before entering politics, but has displayed an unabashed indifference about whether her flagship migration bill complies with international law.

    And she is an avid Francophile, sometimes speaking in French when meeting her counterpart in Paris, who championed the project to leave the European Union. Braverman says she fell in love with France while studying at the renowned Sorbonne university in Paris, taking advantage of the EU’s Erasmus program that encourages students to spend time in other parts of the continent. Brexit shut the program off to British students.

    Now, she has staked her political reputation on her ability to “Stop the Boats” – an oft-repeated government pledge, borrowed from Australia’s hardline rhetoric towards asylum-seekers, to reduce the growing number of migrants crossing the English Channel on small vessels.

    The number of small boat crossings to the UK has increased in recent years, with many asylum-seekers ending up in limbo in Britain.

    It is a stance that has drawn sharp criticism – including from within the traditional wing of Braverman’s Conservative Party.

    “Braverman has placed far too much emphasis on curbing migration,” said Ben Ramanauskas, an economist and adviser to Truss when the previous prime minister was secretary of state for international trade. “Her priority seems to be attempting to be as cruel as possible.”

    The government’s flagship bill, which was approved by MPs last week but faces scrutiny in the House of Lords, essentially hands the government the right to deport anyone arriving illegally in the United Kingdom. “It’s incredibly dangerous, hostile, cruel, and fundamentally unworkable,” migration policy expert and campaigner Zoe Gardner told CNN.

    And experts say it deliberately misses the point. “Deterrents don’t work… There is absolutely no correlation whatsoever between how brutally we respond to migration, and the numbers of people forced to move,” Gardner said. “We need a functioning asylum system where we process people’s claims, (and) we need to give people safe routes in order to travel.”

    Braverman, however, is steadfast in the face of criticism. The Home Office told CNN in a statement that her bill “will break the business model of the people smuggling gangs and restore fairness to our asylum system. It will ensure anyone arriving via small boat or other dangerous and illegal means will be in scope for detention and swiftly removed.”

    Braverman’s plans have won praise from Europe’s leading populist figures, including Italy’s hardline deputy leader Matteo Salvini and French far-right presidential candidate Eric Zemmour.

    But that is company many in the Conservatives feel uncomfortable keeping.

    “The UK’s ability to play a role internationally is based on our reputation – not because we’re British, but because of what we stand for and what we do,” ex-Prime Minister Theresa May said in a stinging intervention in the House of Commons last month. May added last week that the bill’s removal of modern slavery protections “will consign victims to remaining in slavery.”

    And Sayeeda Warsi, the first Asian chair of the Tory party, has attacked what she described as Braverman’s “racist rhetoric,” after Braverman prompted controversy by singling out British Pakistani men when attacking grooming gangs in the country.

    “Braverman’s own ethnic origin has shielded her from criticism for too long,” Warsi wrote in The Guardian. “Black and brown people can be racist too.” The Home Office told CNN that Braverman “has been clear that all despicable child abusers must be brought to justice. And she will not shy away from telling hard truths, particularly when it comes to the grooming of young women and girls in Britain’s towns who have been failed by authorities over decades.”

    Braverman fronts a newer, more populist streak in the UK’s ruling party – a move that has troubled some of its grandees but has found an audience among voters.

    “The voters that she’s appealing to is the majority of the British public,” said James Johnson, who ran polling in May’s Downing Street operation and later founded the JL Partners pollster. “There is a very significant disconnect between what people on Twitter about immigration, and what people actually think about immigration.

    “Voters do not react to (Braverman’s) language with the same outrage that some people do,” he told CNN. “(They) want their politicians to at least be trying.”

    Polling shows that approval of Braverman’s tough stance on migration significantly outpaces support for the government in general – as well as approval of Braverman herself – with research often indicating that a slim majority of the public supports her plans.

    And those who support her – particularly those in Euroskeptic circles, where she is almost revered – say Braverman speaks to the concerns of modern Britain in a way that her more seasoned critics cannot. “When finally even I wobbled about backing Brexit in name only, Suella stood firm,” prominent Brexit backer Steve Baker said when he supported her leadership campaign last year, praising Braverman’s resolve to defeat May’s Brexit deal and push for a harder-line departure from the EU. “It wouldn’t have happened without her.”

    But research has also shown that the importance of immigration to British voters has receded since the bitter debates of the mid-2010s.

    It appears inevitable that the Tories will seek to make migration a wedge issue at the next election, ensuring Braverman plenty of airtime as the government looks to draw a contrast between itself and the Labour party. But a series of brutal electoral results in local polls on Thursday will further fuel questions about whether that is a winning strategy.

    Braverman resigned from Liz Truss's cabinet for breaking ministerial rules by using a private email address, but returned under Sunak just days later.

    Braverman’s political coming-of-age took place just as the 2016 EU referendum shifted the tectonic plates underneath Westminster, giving younger, Euroskeptic voices like hers an inroad with the public.

    It was Braverman’s role fronting an anti-EU backbench committee that “propelled her to her (current) position, and she knows it,” former Conservative MP Antoinette Sandbach told CNN.

    Today, she takes the populist mantle further than many of her peers on a range of matters far beyond Brexit. Braverman appears to relish “culture war” confrontations with her political enemies like few other frontline politicians; “you almost feel sometimes that she gets a kick out of ‘owning the libs,’” the politics professor Bale told CNN.

    She has taken aim at the “Guardian-reading, tofu-eating wokerati” from the despatch box, and insisted she will “not be hectored by out-of-touch lefties.” In 2019, she said she considers herself engaged in a “battle against cultural Marxism.”

    Braverman’s Home Office recently reportedly backed two pub landlords who refused to remove their minstrel-style children’s toys that are considered a racist relic of the 1970s. And she has criticized police officers for “virtue signaling,” saying in a speech last week that “they shouldn’t be taking the knee.”

    But those battles have left some traditional Tories cold. “The Conservative Party has moved right since I joined, and become much more like the MAGA Republicans” since the dividing line of 2016, said Sandbach, who was expelled from the party by Boris Johnson after trying to avert a no-deal Brexit. She subsequently joined the Liberal Democrats.

    Those who worked alongside Braverman describe her as friendly and personable, and few doubt her ambition.

    As 23-year-old Suella Fernandes, she nearly ran against her own mother to become the Tory candidate in a 2003 by-election, until the elder Fernandes – a Conservative councilor and NHS nurse – persuaded her to pull out.

    Braverman succeeded in becoming an MP in 2015. In a series of tweets that bemoaned her “lamentable hopelessness,” one of her more critical backbenchers, William Wragg, claimed she asked in her first week in Parliament whether she could expense a fine for speeding.

    But her determination to drive towards power has served her well. No politician emerged more triumphant from the psychodrama that has transfixed British politics than Braverman, who started 2022 as attorney general and ended it a household name – having served in three different Cabinets, twice as home secretary.

    An initial departure from frontline politics theoretically came amid scandal (Braverman resigned for breaching ministerial rules by using a private email address), but her scathing parting letter turned her misconduct into a maneuver, essentially pulling the plug on Truss’s shambolic tenure.

    “I have made a mistake; I accept responsibility: I resign,” Braverman wrote, in a thinly veiled attempt to contrast herself with Truss. Six days later she was back in the same post, having aligned herself with Sunak’s successful leadership bid.

    Few doubt Braverman’s long-term ambitions. “You have to interpret everything Suella Braverman does and says in the light of the leadership contest that many people assume will take place if… Sunak were to lose the next election,” Bale said.

    Crucial to that target is her reputation among party members and its more hardline MPs. It is those groups that pick a party leader, and she is met enthusiastically by grassroots Conservatives who tend to reflect the more right-wing, populist traits of the bloc.

    That prospect undoubtedly perturbs some. “There will be many Tory MPs who simply could not stomach her as leader,” Bale added. “I think the lack of support she received in her leadership bid (last year) reflects how she was seen by the party as a whole,” Sandbach said.

    Nevertheless, Braverman is storming up the approval rankings among ordinary Conservative members. In its latest monthly league table of Cabinet ministers, the ConservativeHome website – widely regarded as having its finger on the pulse of the grassroots party – puts Braverman fourth from the top with a net approval rating of 47.8. Only last November, she was sixth from bottom in the site’s regular survey of party members. “The panel seems to have decided that if the Government fails to stop the boats it won’t be for want of the Home Secretary trying,” wrote the website’s editors in April.

    Should Braverman succeed at her next bid for the party leadership, her critics fear another rightwards shift in British politics.

    “Braverman has taken some cues from the US, and also from history,” Gardner said. “She’s recognized that in the current political climate, her way of creating an impact… (is) positioning herself as a Trump tribute act.

    “She’s setting herself up to lead a more extreme, right-wing populist version of the Tory party.”

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  • Watchdog group seeks federal probe into allegation that Herschel Walker directed six-figure political contribution to his company | CNN Politics

    Watchdog group seeks federal probe into allegation that Herschel Walker directed six-figure political contribution to his company | CNN Politics

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    CNN
     — 

    A watchdog group is asking federal election regulators to investigate whether Republican Herschel Walker violated campaign finance laws during his unsuccessful 2022 US Senate bid in Georgia.

    The complaint, filed Friday with the Federal Election Commission by Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, or CREW, includes emails published earlier this week by The Daily Beast that appear to show Walker soliciting a large donation for his campaign from Montana billionaire Dennis Washington and then directing Washington’s representative to send more than $530,000 of the total to Walker’s personal company, HR Talent.

    Federal law restricts the size of donations that individuals can contribute directly to a candidate’s campaign, and candidates are prohibited from soliciting donations that exceed those limits.

    The complaint alleges that the emails show that Walker solicited contributions “far in excess” of the limits and asks the commission to investigate, “impose sanctions appropriate to these violations, and take such further action as may be appropriate, including referring this matter to the Department of Justice for criminal prosecution.”

    CNN’s repeated attempts to reach Walker on Friday were unsuccessful. The Daily Beast has said that Walker did not respond to requests for comment on its reporting.

    Walker lost his Senate bid to Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock in a December runoff.

    In a statement, Jon Bennion, a spokeperson for Washington, confirmed that a “certain portion” of the family’s political contributions went to a “non-political account.” Once discovered, he wrote, “the Washingtons immediately requested and received a full refund of such funds.”

    Bennion said Washington’s team would have no further comment on the matter.

    In its complaint, CREW argues that soliciting excess campaign contributions – even if later refunded – still amounts to a violation of federal regulations.

    “The evidence we’ve seen so far raises so many questions about what was really going on here that only an immediate and thorough investigation will suffice,” the group’s president, Noah Bookbinder, said in a statement.

    Citing agency policy, officials in the FEC press office said Friday they could not confirm whether the commission had received the complaint or otherwise comment on it.

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  • Rishi Sunak’s party just took a pounding in UK local elections. The road to recovery is steep | CNN

    Rishi Sunak’s party just took a pounding in UK local elections. The road to recovery is steep | CNN

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    London
    CNN
     — 

    Many Britons will enjoy the long weekend while celebrating the coronation of King Charles III. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is unlikely to be one of them.

    Instead, he will be pondering a bleak future after watching a dire set of results pour in from a swath of municipal elections held around the country on Thursday. And they made grim viewing for a man hoping to lead his Conservative Party back to power in just over a year’s time at the next UK general election.

    With most of the results declared by early evening on Friday, the Conservatives had lost control of 45 local administrations and shed more than 1,000 councilors.

    Before Thursday’s votes, the Conservatives had been in expectation management mode, briefing journalists they would lose heavily in areas that had been in Conservative hands for years. Presumably, party officials had hoped privately that it wouldn’t be as bad as that.

    The main opposition Labour Party could barely conceal its glee – the results would translate to a nine-point national lead according to PA Media. Labour boasted that the results show it would not just beat Sunak at the next election, but do so decisively.

    The task ahead of Sunak is a daunting one. At most, he has until January 2025 – the last date he can legally hold an election – to turn things around. In reality, he hopes to hold the vote in the fall of next year.

    The British economy is in big trouble after 13 years of Conservative government. Some of the reasons for this have been out of the government’s hands. But it was ultimately various iterations of this government that decided to erect punitive post-Brexit trade borders with Europe and propose unfunded tax cuts that caused the pound to tank.

    Public services, including the much-loved National Health Service, are in a dire state. It can take weeks to arrange an appointment with your doctor and months to get a vital medical procedure.

    Teachers, doctors, nurses, train drivers and workers in many other services have held strikes over pay and working conditions, with polls consistently showing that the public thinks the government is handling negotiations with unions poorly.

    Immigration, one of the hottest issues in British politics for decades, is making headlines almost daily as an increasing number of migrants arrive in the UK on small boats, often arranged by criminal human trafficking gangs.

    Against this backdrop, taxes are at their highest in decades and trust in Sunak’s party is low.

    Fixing everything before the election is a tall order on its own. What Sunak must also do, if he’s to turn things around in just over a year, is stop his party from tearing itself apart.

    With nearly three-quarters of results declared by late afternoon on Friday, the Conservatives had shed 35 local authorities and more than 600 councilors.

    The blame game for Conservative woes started last summer after its lawmakers forced Boris Johnson out of office after months of scandals – including the notorious “Partygate” scandal when officials in Downing Street were revealed to have held parties that broke Covid-19 restrictions.

    Johnson loyalists insist it was a grave mistake to have removed him from office. They claim Johnson was responsible for the party winning a parliamentary majority in the 2019 general election, a victory they regard as his personal mandate. They argue that removing a man they see as the Conservative’s biggest electoral asset has blown up credibility the party might have with the public. And they blame those who ultimately made Johnson’s position untenable – including Sunak, whose resignation from Johnson’s Cabinet was arguably the final nail in his coffin – for the current mess.

    The anti-Johnson cohort, meanwhile, think he trashed the reputation of the party while in office.

    Partygate created the perception that the government, led by Johnson, didn’t believe the pandemic rules applied to people running the country. While Sunak and Johnson both received fines after a police investigation, Sunak emerged relatively unscathed.

    There were other scandals on Johnson’s watch – from his personal financial arrangements to cronyism – that created a stench of sleaze around the Conservatives that Sunak has struggled to shake off.

    These two main factions both agree that the short premiership of Liz Truss, who succeeded Johnson last summer but only managed to stay in office for 45 days, has done real damage to the Conservatives’ main electoral selling point: economic credibility. She proposed unfunded spending and tax cuts that caused the pound to fall to its lowest against the dollar since 1985, and did not survive the ensuing fallout.

    The main opposition Labour Party could barely conceal its glee at the results -- it is projected to have won a nine-point lead, according to PA Media.

    Suank’s loyalists point out that Truss was team Johnson’s preferred candidate, but almost everyone in Westminster has distanced themselves from her short tenure.

    Ahead of this latest set of local elections, there was concern among some in the party that poor results might cause for loud calls from the right of the party for someone to challenge Sunak. There are people who sincerely believe Johnson returning ahead of the next election would give them the best chance at victory.

    However, these people are now a minority and Johnson has gone off grid, earning huge amounts of money giving speeches and writing books. But that doesn’t mean his supporters cannot still cause problems for Sunak.

    Next week, a group of Conservatives broadly from the Johnson wing of the party will meet at a conference organized by the Conservative Democrat Organisation. Speakers include three of Johnson’s most loyal Cabinet ministers and one of his biggest financial supporters.

    They are, it is commonly accepted, a group that believes Johnson was kicked out of office unfairly and that Sunak was imposed on them and their grassroots members by the big cheeses of the Conservative Party. Most of them have said publicly in the months since Johnson resigned that they wish he was still PM.

    Right now, most of the party seems to be on message. They are downplaying the local elections and pointing out that Labour would still need a swing bigger than Tony Blair achieved in 1997 to win a majority of just one seat. They also believe that Sunak’s rise in popularity is down to the relative stability he has brought since taking over from Truss.

    But if polls don’t improve dramatically, Sunak should start looking over his shoulder. The Conservative Party has developed a taste for regicide since 2016. If the economy fails to improve, if he can’t live up to his promise to “stop the boats” of migrants and if Conservative members of parliament start to fear they will suffer the same fate as those who lost their jobs in these elections, then it’s not a giant leap from mild concern to panic – and calls for a new way forward before the party is booted from power.

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  • GOP frontrunner for NC governor mocked school shooting survivors and once justified shooting protesters | CNN Politics

    GOP frontrunner for NC governor mocked school shooting survivors and once justified shooting protesters | CNN Politics

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    CNN
     — 

    North Carolina Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, the current Republican favorite to be the party’s nominee for governor in 2024, has a long history of remarks viciously mocking and attacking teenage survivors of the 2018 shooting at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida, for their advocacy for gun control measures.

    In posts after the shooting, Robinson called the students “spoiled, angry, know it all CHILDREN,” “spoiled little bastards,” and “media prosti-tots.”

    Robinson, whose political rise as a conservative Internet personality started when a clip of him speaking at a city council meeting in April 2018 went viral, as he was speaking against a proposal to cancel a local gun show after the Parkland shooting. He also began attacking the Parkland survivors after they launched the “March for Our Lives” movement that called for new gun control measures, comparing the students to communists.

    Robinson’s comments about the school shooting survivors were frequently personal, mocking their appearance and intelligence. In one post on Facebook, Robinson shared a photo of several students posing for photos, with the caption, “the look you get when you let the devil give you a ride on a river of blood to ’15 minutes of Fameville.’”

    In another comment on Twitter in April of 2018, Robinson shared several crying laughing emojis in response to a post that blasted conservatives who mocked the survivors, writing that when children “got sassy,” adults needed to make sure the “CHILDREN knew their place.”

    Robinson did not respond to CNN’s request for comment.

    As Robinson became known for his fierce defense of gun rights, he was frequently featured in videos and promoted by the National Rifle Association. Robinson leveraged his often viral and unapologetic Facebook posts to win his party’s nomination for the state’s lieutenant governorship in 2020, winning the race to become the state’s first Black lieutenant governor.

    Though the position is largely considered a ceremonial role – and the state has a Democratic governor because the jobs are elected separately – Robinson has now set his sights on the top job. Roy Cooper, the current Democratic governor, is term-limited, and Robinson would likely face Josh Stein, the state’s attorney general, a Democrat finishing out his second term.

    CNN’s KFile examined his mostly unreported remarks, as the candidate is coming under renewed scrutiny in his bid for the governor’s mansion. Robinson, who frequently posted in defense of law enforcement, often attacked left wing protesters, going so far as defending the shooting of students at Kent State protesting the Vietnam War in May 1970, commonly known as the “Kent State Massacre.”

    Robinson said such a response deserved to be emulated today.

    “The shooting that happened at Kent State now, I don’t know how much you know about that shooting at Kent State, but people have got to understand it,” Robinson said on one podcast in 2018. “We have the constitutional right to peacefully assemble. Now peacefully assemble does not mean you could throw bricks at National Guardsmen, bust out windows and block traffic. Once you cross that line into violence and the disruption of public transportation and public services and start blocking the entrances of a federal building, you are no longer a protester.”

    “You are are now a criminal and you need to be dealt with like a criminal,” he continued. “And we need some politicians in office in some of these cities that’s gonna let people know from the get-go, you go in the street and block traffic, if you block buildings, if you destroy property, you are going to be dealt with swiftly and harshly. We are not going to tolerate it. That is exactly the message that needs to go out to these people. You wanna apply for a permit to protest at the park, that’s fine, but it’s gonna be peaceful and you’re not going to bother anybody, and you’re not going to destroy anything. If you do, you will be dealt with harshly and swiftly.”

    Though there were violent clashes between local police and protesters in the days leading up to the shooting, the Nixon administration-established President’s Commission on Campus Unrest said that the shooting was unjustified, writing in a 1970 report, “Even if the guardsmen faced danger, it was not a danger that called for lethal force. The 61 shots by 28 guardsmen certainly cannot be justified.”

    Robinson was also frequently critical of the “March for Our Lives” rally itself, calling it, “a march of pawns in Washington today” and mocked attendees.

    One photo shared by Robinson mocked an attendee at the “March for Our Lives” rally in Washington, DC, saying the college-aged student needed to “put that sign down and go read a book dummy” and “They live. They breathe. They’ll procreate. #funnybutscary.”

    His harshest rhetoric was saved for then-18-year-old Parkland activist David Hogg, calling the student a “commie stooge,” in a post that also mocked 18-year-old Parkland student X Gonzáles as “that bald chick,” referring to the pair as “stupid kids.”

    In another post on Facebook, less than two weeks after the shooting in 2018, Robinson shared the laughing crying emoji with a photoshopped chyron on a picture of Hogg on MSNBC with the title “Media Hogg,” and a day later shared a crude photoshop of the student’s face on body of Boss Hogg from “The Dukes of Hazzard” calling the student “just as corrupt as the TV character.”

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  • GOP presidential candidate Asa Hutchinson says he would sign federal abortion ban but supports exceptions | CNN Politics

    GOP presidential candidate Asa Hutchinson says he would sign federal abortion ban but supports exceptions | CNN Politics

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    CNN
     — 

    Republican presidential candidate Asa Hutchinson said Sunday he would sign a federal abortion ban if he were elected president but would support exceptions.

    “I would support the restrictions, and I would advocate for the exceptions of the life of the mother and the cases of rape and incest,” the former Arkansas governor said on CNN’s “State of the Union” in an interview with Dana Bash. “I believe that’s where the American public is. I don’t think anything will come out of Congress without those exceptions. And I certainly would sign a pro-life bill, but I would expect those exceptions to be in place.”

    As governor in 2021, Hutchinson signed a near-total abortion ban into law that did not include exceptions for rape and incest. He told CNN at the time that he signed the measure because he hoped the US Supreme Court would eventually take up the legislation and overturn the Roe v. Wade ruling that had legalized abortion nationwide.

    A year later, the Supreme Court did just that, allowing various state restrictions on the procedure to move forward, including in Arkansas. Hutchinson told CNN last year before Roe was overturned that he believed the Arkansas law should be “revisited” to provide exceptions for instances of rape or incest.

    Hutchinson said Sunday that unless Republicans earn supermajority status in Congress, “we’re going to keep this issue in the states.”

    Republicans have been wrestling with the issue of abortion, which has become a political landmine for their party and has hurt conservative candidates in recent elections. CNN previously reported that House Republicans have abandoned a yearslong push by their party to pass a federal abortion ban and are exploring other ways to advance their anti-abortion agenda.

    Still, Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel said Sunday that Republicans need to directly take on abortion issues in order to appeal to independents.

    “Abortion was a big issue in key states like Michigan and Pennsylvania so the guidance we’re going to give to our candidates is to have to address this head-on,” she said on “Fox News Sunday,” adding that Republicans need to “fight back” against Democratic attacks.

    “You need to say, ‘Listen, I’m proud to be pro-life. We have to find consensus among Democrats and Republicans,’” she added.

    Hutchinson formally kicked off his campaign in Bentonville, Arkansas, last week, touting his experience and record as a “consistent conservative.”

    Asked by Bash on Sunday if there’s any appetite for his brand of Republicanism, Hutchinson said, “Absolutely. I wouldn’t be in this race if I didn’t believe it.”

    The former governor also took a swing at a potential GOP rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, over his yearlong fight with Disney, saying, “I don’t understand a conservative punishing a business that’s the largest employer in the state.”

    “It’s not the role of government to punish a business when you disagree with what they’re saying or a position that they take,” Hutchinson said.

    DeSantis’ clash with Disney dates back to the entertainment giant’s opposition to a Florida measure that restricts certain instruction about sexual orientation and gender identity in schools. The law was dubbed “Don’t Say Gay” by opponents, and Disney vowed to help overturn it.

    The Florida governor has defended the state’s actions against Disney, which include taking over the company’s special taxing district.

    “In reality, Disney was enjoying unprecedented privileges and subsidies,” DeSantis said recently. “It’s certainly even worse when a company takes all those privileges that have been bestowed over many, many decades, and uses that to wage war on state policy regarding families and children.”

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  • How bad is it for Ron DeSantis? He’s polling at RFK Jr.’s level | CNN Politics

    How bad is it for Ron DeSantis? He’s polling at RFK Jr.’s level | CNN Politics

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    CNN
     — 

    Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has spent the past few months running to the right ahead of his expected entry into the 2024 Republican presidential primary campaign. From signing into law a six-week abortion ban to fighting with Disney, the governor has focused on satisfying his party’s conservative base.

    So far at least, those efforts have not paid off in Republican primary polling, with DeSantis falling further behind the current front-runner, former President Donald Trump.

    Things have gotten so bad for DeSantis that a recent Fox News poll shows him at 21% – comparable with the 19% that Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has pushed debunked conspiracy theories about vaccine safety, is receiving on the Democratic side.

    DeSantis was at 28% in Fox’s February poll, 15 points behind Trump. The Florida governor’s support has dropped in the two Fox polls published since, and he now trails the former president by 32 points.

    The Fox poll is not alone in showing DeSantis floundering. The latest average of national polls has him dropping from the low 30s into the low 20s.

    This may not seem like a big deal, but early polling has long been an indicator of how well presidential candidates do in the primary the following year. Of all primary elections since 1972 without incumbents running, candidates at around 30% in early primary polls (like DeSantis was in February) have gone on to become their parties’ nominees about 40% of the time. Candidates polling the way DeSantis is now have gone on to win about 20% of the time.

    I will, of course, point out that 20% is not nothing. DeSantis most certainly still has a chance of winning. The comparison with Kennedy is not a remark on Kennedy’s strength but on DeSantis’ weakness.

    There is no historical example of an incumbent in President Joe Biden’s current position (over 60% in the latest Fox poll) losing a primary. At this point in 1995, Bill Clinton was polling roughly where Biden is now, and he had no problem winning the Democratic nomination the following year.

    In that same campaign, Jesse Jackson was polling near 20% in a number of early surveys against Clinton. So what we’re seeing from Kennedy now is not, as of yet, a historical anomaly.

    Jackson didn’t run in that 1996 race. The power of incumbency is strong enough to deter most challengers.

    The last three incumbents to either lose state primary elections (when on the ballot) or drop out of the race – Lyndon Johnson in 1968, Gerald Ford in 1976 and Jimmy Carter in 1980 – were at less than 40% of the vote or up by fewer than 10 points at this point in primary polling.

    The good news for DeSantis is that he doesn’t need to beat an incumbent, though one could make the case that Trump is polling like one.

    In fact, DeSantis’ decline is at least in part because of Trump’s rise. The former president, who has been indicted on felony criminal charges in New York, has gone from the low to mid-40s to above 50% in the average 2024 polling. (Trump has pleaded not guilty to the charges.)

    But one could also argue that DeSantis isn’t helping his cause. He has yet to formally announce his 2024 campaign – most past nominees had already done so or had filed with the Federal Election Commission at this point in the race. And the governor’s play to the right doesn’t line up with where the anti-Trump forces are within the Republican Party.

    Trump has continually been weakest among party moderates. A Quinnipiac University poll released at the end of March found that he was pulling in 61% among very conservative Republicans, while garnering a mere 30% from moderate and liberal Republicans.

    This moderate wing is the part of the party that is least likely to want a ban on abortion after six weeks. A KFF poll taken late last year showed moderate and liberal Republicans split 50/50 on whether they wanted a six-week abortion ban.

    This group isn’t small. Moderates and liberals made up about 30% of potential Republican primary voters in the Quinnipiac poll.

    Indeed, DeSantis’ other big newsmaking action (his fight with Disney) has managed to split the GOP as well, a Reuters/Ipsos poll from last week found. Although a clear majority sided with the governor (64%), 36% of Republicans do not.

    For reference, over 80% of Republicans said in a Fox poll last month that Trump had not done anything illegal, with regard to the criminal charges against him in New York.

    DeSantis, at the moment, is not building a base. He’s dividing Republicans and allowing Trump to claim an electability mantle. The general electorate remains opposed to a six-week abortion ban and his position on Disney.

    We’ll see if that changes should his polling position improve after an official campaign launch. If it doesn’t, this may end up being one of the most boring presidential primary seasons in the modern era, given Biden’s and Trump’s significant advantages.

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  • Biden calls for release of wrongfully detained Americans abroad during White House Correspondents Dinner | CNN Politics

    Biden calls for release of wrongfully detained Americans abroad during White House Correspondents Dinner | CNN Politics

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    CNN
     — 

    President Joe Biden called for the release of detained journalists and citizens abroad at the White House Correspondents Dinner on Saturday, before poking fun at everything from his age to Elon Musk.

    “Let me start on a serious note,” Biden said, “members of our administration are here to send a message to the country and, quite frankly, to the world. The free press is a pillar, maybe the pillar of a free society, not the enemy.”

    The audience at the Washington Hilton represented a “who’s who” of officials within the Biden administration, with some top White House officials seated at the dais. First Lady Jill Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris and second gentleman Doug Emhoff were all in attendance Saturday evening. The event also boasted a number of high-profile celebrity guests like Chrissy Teigen and John Legend.

    Beyond one-liners, the president’s remarks were calibrated to his reelection campaign priorities and the topical issues he often discusses at the podium – such as the economy and the ongoing war in Ukraine.

    But Biden took special care to address the issue of wrongfully detained Americans abroad.

    Saturday’s dinner took place about a month after the arrest of American citizen Evan Gershkovich, a Wall Street Journal correspondent based in Moscow. The United States has designated him as wrongfully detained by Russia.

    “Tonight, our message is this: Journalism is not a crime,” Biden said Saturday.

    Earlier this week, the US issued new sanctions on groups in Russia and Iran accused of taking Americans hostage as the Biden administration works to prevent more captive-taking and potentially secure the release of citizens currently being detained.

    This year’s dinner also comes amid a media industry reckoning. The state of the economy, fears of a recession and dried up investment capital have played a large part in what’s driven the dramatic industry changes over the last several months. But other struggles, like high-profile legal issues and ratings woes, have also been apparent.

    Typically, presidential speechwriters work through remarks for a few weeks. Last year, at his first correspondents dinner since becoming president, Biden told his team he envisioned an address that went beyond just a series of one-liners, wisecracks and gags – a tactic he employed again Saturday night.

    Still, the dinner gave Biden a rare chance to flex his comedic muscles in front of entertainers and members of the media, an opportunity he used to make jokes about his predecessor’s recent scandals.

    Biden joked he was offered $10 to keep his speech under ten minutes. “That’s a switch, a president being offered hush money,” he quipped in reference to Trump’s indictment in an alleged hush money scheme.

    In just the last two weeks, the media industry has been hit by multiple high-profile terminations, layoffs and the complete shut down of a news organization.

    Host Tucker Carlson and Fox News severed ties. Anchor Don Lemon and CNN parted ways. Comcast announced NBCUniversal CEO Jeff Shell was leaving company after an outside investigation “into a complaint of inappropriate conduct.” Vice Media announced layoffs and the cancellation of its acclaimed program “Vice News Tonight.” BuzzFeed News shut down.

    In pictures: The history of the White House Correspondents’ Dinner

    The event raises funds for the White House Correspondents’ Association scholarship fund and offers a rare opportunity for journalists and politicians to rub elbows – but also features remarks from a comedian often tasked with walking a fine line between gentle ribbing and legitimate criticism.

    This year’s dinner headliner was “Daily Show” correspondent Roy Wood Jr., who took aim at both parties and the media as he criticized politics in Washington.

    As Biden stepped away from the podium to make room for Wood, the comedian quipped: “Real quick, Mr. President. I think you left some of your classified documents up here,” in reference to the classified documents found in Biden’s Delaware home.

    Wood also joked about Fox News’ settlement with Dominion Voting Systems, the oustings of Carlson and Lemon, the ethics scandal around Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas, and Trump, who he dubbed the “king of scandals.”

    “Keeping up with Trump scandals is like watching Star Wars movies,” he said. “You got to watch the third one to understand the first one, then you got – you can’t miss the second one because it’s got Easter eggs for the fifth one.”

    In 2018, comedian Michelle Wolf drew fire after she delivered a brutal monologue taking the Trump administration to task for its positions on abortion, press access and coverage of the beleaguered White House.

    This year’s dinner comes weeks after Biden signed legislation to end the national emergency for Covid-19. Attendees were still required to submit proof of a negative Covid test before the event.

    Last year’s dinner was the first time the gala had been held since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic.

    Biden was the first president to address the dinner’s attendees in six years, after former President Donald Trump famously boycotted the event throughout his tenure in office.

    Biden last year used the appearance to loudly affirm his belief in a free press – a bold contrast to a predecessor who labeled reporters the “enemy of the people.”

    This story has been updated with additional information Saturday.

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