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  • Biden administration tells student loan forgiveness applicants it is ‘confident’ in face of Supreme Court skepticism | CNN Politics

    Biden administration tells student loan forgiveness applicants it is ‘confident’ in face of Supreme Court skepticism | CNN Politics

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    CNN
     — 

    The Biden administration is projecting confidence about the fate of President Joe Biden’s student loan cancellation program in a message to applicants, even in the face of skepticism from conservative Supreme Court justices in Tuesday’s high-stakes oral arguments.

    Education Secretary Miguel Cardona said in an email sent to millions of borrowers who applied for debt cancellation that the administration “mounted a powerful case” in support of Biden’s executive action.

    “Our Administration is confident in our legal authority to adopt this plan, and today made clear that opponents of the program lack standing to even bring their case to court,” Cardona wrote in the email update obtained by CNN.

    The email update to applicants reflects a position administration officials have maintained in the wake of the oral arguments. But it also implicitly lays out the administration’s view of the political dynamics of a move that has became an immediate partisan flashpoint. As applicants and administration officials alike settle in for what will likely be months of waiting for a final decision, the update sent to roughly 7 million people also provides a window into the reach the administration would have to frame the debate – and consequences – should the program be struck down.

    Cardona’s message comes as millions of borrowers remain in limbo as they await a Supreme Court decision on whether Biden’s action to cancel up to $20,000 in student loan debt will stand.

    White House officials, who closely monitored the oral arguments in two challenges, have maintained the position that they will ultimately prevail in the cases that challenge Biden’s authority to discharge millions of dollars in federally held loans. While they remain confident on the merits, sources continue to highlight the view inside the administration that the plaintiffs lack standing to bring the challenges – which would render the arguments over the authority itself moot.

    One source familiar told CNN that the White House remains confident that things will go their way, simply saying: “We’ll win.”

    A particular flashpoint in the hearing was the states’ arguments that the loan forgiveness program’s potential harms to MOHELA – the Missouri-created entity that services loans in the state – gives Missouri standing.

    Justice Amy Coney Barrett stood out among the conservatives for asking particularly pointed questions of the GOP states about their standing arguments, setting her apart as a potential pickup vote for the court’s three liberal members.

    “If MOHELA is an arm of the state, why didn’t you just strong-arm MOHELA and say you’ve got to pursue this suit,” Barrett asked Nebraska Solicitor General James Campbell.

    The question was one of several directed at Campbell, who represented the group of Republican-led states that argue the administration exceeded its authority, about the states’ standing claims.

    Another source familiar said that Barrett’s comments only raised optimism within the administration.

    But as several conservative justices leveled sharp questions related the government’s authority on the matter, Cardona’s update appeared intended to assuage overarching concerns.

    It also previewed a political contrast officials will likely elevate should Supreme Court strike down Biden’s actions – one White House officials have repeatedly pressed as the challenges have made their way through the courts.

    “While opponents of this program would deny relief to tens of millions of working- and middle-class Americans, we are fighting to deliver relief to borrowers who need support as they get back on their feet after the economic crisis caused by the pandemic,” Cardona wrote.

    Biden’s plan would cancel as much as $10,000 in federal student loan debt for people earning less than $125,000 a year, or less than $250,000 for married couples. Individuals on Pell Grants could see up to $20,000 forgiven. In all, more than 40 million federal borrowers would qualify for some level of debt cancelation, with roughly 20 million who would have their balance forgiven entirely.

    The Biden administration received 26 million applications for the program, which has been frozen as the court battles have played out, and more than 16 million applications had already been approved.

    Cardona reiterated that a pause on federal loan payments, which was implemented during the Trump administration in response to the pandemic and was set to restart at the same time cancellation was implemented, remain on hold as the Supreme Court deliberations play out.

    “While we await the Supreme Court’s decision, the pause on student loan payments remains in effect,” Cardona wrote. “Payments will resume 60 days after the Supreme Court announces its decision.”

    If the litigation is not resolved by June 30, payments are scheduled to resume 60 days after that date. If it has not made a decision or resolved the litigation by June 30, payments will resume 60 days after that.

    The Supreme Court’s decision is expected to come this summer.

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  • Pending home sales blew past expectations last month as buyers pounced on lower rates | CNN Business

    Pending home sales blew past expectations last month as buyers pounced on lower rates | CNN Business

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    Washington, DC
    CNN
     — 

    Pending home sales crushed expectations in January, when mortgage rates dropped from recent highs of more than 7% and home buyers jumped at the opportunity.

    According to data released Monday from the National Association of Realtors, it was the largest monthly sales increase since June 2020.

    The pending sales index, based on signed contracts to buy a home rather than the final sales that are accounted for in existing home sales, rose by 8.1% from December to January, beating economists’ predictions for a rise of 1%. January’s jump followed a downwardly revised 1.1% rise in December.

    “Buyers responded to better affordability from falling mortgage rates in December and January,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at NAR.

    But since then, mortgage rates have risen again, climbing almost half a percentage point since the beginning of February, according to Freddie Mac.

    “Mortgage rates took a breath in December and January before resuming their climb in February, reaching 6.5%, the highest level of the new year,” said Hannah Jones, an economic data analyst at Realtor.com.

    At the current mortgage rate, the monthly payment on a median-priced home is about 45% higher — or $630 more — than it was at the same time last year, she said. “Many buyers are still holding off, waiting to see if prices or rates give a bit before getting into the market.”

    Last year’s persistent increase in both mortgage rates and home prices pushed many would-be home purchasers out of the market, said Jones. This resulted in a slowing of new homes in the building pipeline and fewer sellers listing their homes, which limited options for buyers still in the market.

    “New listings were at the lowest level in the last six years in January as sellers stayed on the sidelines, waiting to see buyers return, before placing their homes for sale,” said Jones. “However, the first month of the year brought glimmers of hope as year-over-year declines in both existing and new home sales slowed, and buyer sentiment improved slightly.”

    While home sales were down by 24.1% from the still-hot market of a year ago, activity appears to be bottoming out in the first quarter of this year, before incremental improvements will occur, Yun said.

    “An annual gain in home sales will not occur until 2024,” said Yun. “Meanwhile, home prices will be steady in most parts of the country with a minor change in the national median home price.”

    All regions saw a month-to-month increase in pending home sales, with the Northeast up 6%, the Midwest up 7.9%, the South up 8.3% and the West up 10.1%.

    “An extra bump occurred in the West region because of lower home prices, while gains in the South were due to stronger job growth in that region,” Yun said.

    Home prices are dropping fastest in areas where prices ran up the most in the frenzied market of the past few years.

    But overall, the number of home sales are expected to drop this year, according to NAR’s forecast.

    NAR anticipates the economy will continue to add jobs throughout this year and next, with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate steadily dropping to an average of 6.1% in 2023 and 5.4% in 2024.

    Even with an improving interest rate environment and job gains, Yun still expects annual existing-home sales to drop about 11% this year from last year, before jumping up about 18% in 2024. NAR projects new-home sales will fall about 4% this year compared with last year before surging nearly 20% in 2024.

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  • Union Pacific CEO to leave after push from activist shareholder | CNN Business

    Union Pacific CEO to leave after push from activist shareholder | CNN Business

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    New York
    CNN
     — 

    Union Pacific shares jumped 10% in premarket trading Monday after the railroad company announced CEO Lance Fritz will leave the company by year-end, following a call by an activist hedge fund for his ouster.

    Union Pacific just reported a record profit for the second straight year. But the hedge fund, Soroban Capital Partners, put out a statement saying that Fritz had lost the confidence of “shareholders, employees, customers, and regulators.”

    “UNP’s total shareholder return has been the worst in the industry,” said Soroban’s letter to the board. “Among all S&P 500 companies, UNP is rated by employees as the worst place to work and has the lowest employee CEO approval rating (ranked 500th out of 500 in both),” said the letter. And it said that the Surface Transportation Board, one of the regulators of freight railroads, ranked Union Pacific as providing the worst service among the major railroads.

    Soroban only owns about 1% of Union Pacific’s shares.

    “It is my honor and privilege to serve this great company. I am proud of our team and all we have built together,” said Fritz in a statement. “Union Pacific has been my home for 22 years and I am confident that now is the right time for Union Pacific’s next leader to take the helm.”

    Union Pacific said its process of looking for a new CEO had been ongoing for a year and that it decided to make a public statement in light of Soroban’s public call for a change.

    “The Board is grateful to Lance for his unwavering leadership, dedication and oversight in driving our company forward over the last eight years as CEO. Lance created an environment that has allowed Union Pacific to make a measurable impact with our customers, communities and employees alike,” said Michael McCarthy, lead independent director of the Board. “He has capably led our company during a time of significant challenge and change.”

    But, overall, the level of service and on-time performance in the freight railroad industry has been declining for years, as the railroads attempted to trim costs and staffing.

    Despite the industry’s record profits, stocks in major freight railroads have lagged other sectors. Shares of Union Pacific

    (UNP)
    are down about 20% over the last 12 month through Friday’s close, even with a rebound in share price so far in 2023. That’s worse than the drop in share price at other major railroads like Norfolk Southern

    (NSC)
    and CSX

    (CSX)
    .

    As far as employee relations, Union Pacific was seen as a leader among freight railroads in contentious labor negotiations last year that would have resulted in an economy-crippling strike had Congress not stepped in and imposed an unpopular contract. The contract granted employees an immediate 14% raise, including back pay, but denied them the paid sick days they had sought.

    Union Pacific and other railroads argued during the negotiations that it couldn’t afford to meet union demands for paid sick days, even though the unions estimated it would cost the entire industry $321 million a year at a time when the railroads are each making billions of dollars in profits.

    Union Pacific last year earned a net income of $7 billion, up about $500 million, or 7%, from the previous record profit it posted for 2021. Total employee compensation for the year came to $4.6 billion, far less than the $6.3 billion that Union Pacific spent repurchasing shares of stock in the period.

    Last week, Union Pacific reached an agreement with two of its smaller unions granting their members up to four sick days a year, as well as greater flexibility to use three personal days as sick days without prior notice and approval.

    “We will continue to work with other unions to address paid sick time solutions,” according to the company’s statement on sick pay last week. The move came after another major railroad, CSX, reached deals granting sick days with six of its unions. UP did act before a third railroad, Norfolk Southern, reached a deal with one of its unions on sick days in the wake of a major train derailment in East Palestine, Ohio, which released toxic materials into the area.

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  • Economists’ crystal balls are growing cloudier. But they still expect a recession | CNN Business

    Economists’ crystal balls are growing cloudier. But they still expect a recession | CNN Business

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    Minneapolis
    CNN
     — 

    The US economy is confusing: Jobs are surging. Inflation has been cooling but still running relatively hot. Gas prices are on the rebound. Consumers keep spending, and their confidence is growing. But holiday sales were tepid. Corporate layoffs are mounting. Company earnings aren’t stellar. And mortgage rates are ticking higher.

    In a time when the economic data has delivered mixed messages or flat out busted expectations, economists’ predictions for the year ahead are growing increasingly opaque.

    The National Association for Business Economics’ latest survey, released Monday, shows a “significant divergence” among respondents about where they think the US economy is heading in 2023, the organization’s president said.

    “Estimates of inflation-adjusted gross domestic product or real GDP, inflation, labor market indicators, and interest rates are all widely diffused, likely reflecting a variety of opinions on the fate of the economy — ranging from recession to soft landing to robust growth,” Julia Coronado, NABE’s president, said in a statement.

    Nearly 60% of survey respondents said they believe the US had a more than 50% shot of entering a recession in the next 12 months.

    When such a recession would start was another matter: 28% said first quarter, 33% said second quarter, and 21% said third quarter.

    As the Federal Reserve’s battle against high inflation continues to loom large, economists anticipate that key inflation gauges will slow this year, landing around 2.7% to 3% in 2023 and inching closer to the 2% target by 2024.

    Creating some uncertainty among economists, however, is what the Fed might do during that time as well as the potential effect from external factors.

    “Panelists’ views are split regarding how high the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates, how long rates might stay at the peak, when cuts would begin, and what would signal the central bank’s actions on each of these fronts,” Dana M. Peterson, NABE Outlook Survey chair, and chief economist at the Conference Board, said in the report. “Respondents are also highly concerned but divided in their opinions regarding the consequences of other matters that might affect the US economy, including the impact of China’s reopening on global inflation and the looming debt ceiling.”

    In terms of the labor market, which remains strong and tight, panelists’ median projections for monthly payroll growth this year was 102,000, a significant upward revision from projections in December for 76,000 jobs per month.

    NABE economists said they expect unemployment to increase, but the majority doubt it’ll exceed 5%.

    On the housing front, they expect home prices and new home construction to continue to fall this year, projecting that housing starts could see their largest decline since 2009.

    But they don’t anticipate the downturn to swing into “bust” territory. A mere 2% of respondents said that a “housing market bust” was the greatest downside risk to the US economy in 2023.

    Instead 51% of respondents said the biggest downside risk was too much monetary tightening. Trailing far behind in second was the broadening of war in Ukraine, with 12%.

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  • Missing Chinese CEO is being investigated by authorities, company says | CNN Business

    Missing Chinese CEO is being investigated by authorities, company says | CNN Business

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    New York
    CNN
     — 

    Missing Chinese CEO Bao Fan is cooperating in an investigation by “certain authorities in the People’s Republic of China,” his company said in a statement Sunday.

    China Renaissance Holdings Limited, of which Bao is the chairman and CEO, said the company has been trying to locate him and ascertain his status since the announcement he disappeared on February 16.

    “The Board would like to reiterate that the business and operations of the Group are continuing normally,” a statement from the company said. “The Company will duly cooperate and assist with any lawful request from the relevant PRC authorities, if and when made.”

    Bao is not the first business executive to go missing, in a country where they can suddenly and mysteriously disappear. Real estate tycoon Ren Zhiqiang disappeared for several months after he allegedly spoke out against Chinese leader Xi Jinping in 2020. He was then jailed for 18 years. Anbang chairman Wu Xiaohui was reportedly detained by authorities as part of a government investigation. He too was eventually jailed for 18 years.

    The company, an investment bank and private equity firm based in Beijing, added it is monitoring the situation and will release further statements “when appropriate.”

    Bao is known as a veteran deal maker in China’s tech industry. He helped broker the 2015 merger between two of the country’s leading food delivery services, Meituan and Dianping. Today, the combined company’s “super app” platform is ubiquitous in China.

    Bao started his investment banking career in the late 1990s at Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse and later went on to serve as an adviser to the stock exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen.

    His team has also invested in US-listed Chinese electric vehicle makers Nio

    (NIO)
    and Li Auto, and helped Chinese internet giants Baidu

    (BIDU)
    and JD.com

    (JD)
    complete their secondary listings in Hong Kong.

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  • Inflation is doing a crab walk and Fed officials fear its pinch | CNN Business

    Inflation is doing a crab walk and Fed officials fear its pinch | CNN Business

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    A version of this story first appeared in CNN Business’ Before the Bell newsletter. Not a subscriber? You can sign up right here. You can listen to an audio version of the newsletter by clicking the same link.


    New York
    CNN
     — 

    The possibility of a 2023 market rally ground to a halt last week amid an onslaught of unfortunate inflation and economic data that spooked investors and increased the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will continue its economically painful rate hikes campaign for longer than Wall Street hoped.

    All major indexes notched their largest weekly losses of 2023 on Friday. The S&P 500 fell by 2.7%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank 3%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 3.3%.

    What’s happening: It appears that after months of steady decline, the pace of inflation is going sideways. January’s Personal Consumption Expenditures price index – the Fed’s favored inflation gauge – came in hotter than expected on Friday.

    Prices rose a whopping 5.4% in January from a year earlier, the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis reported. In December, prices rose 5.3% annually.

    In January alone, prices were up 0.6% from the prior month, a higher monthly gain from December’s increase of 0.2%.

    This inflationary crab walk is almost certainly causing Fed officials to rethink their policy.

    A paper presented Friday at the Booth School of Business Monetary Policy Forum in New York argued that disinflation will likely be slower and more painful than markets anticipate.

    “Significant disinflations induced by monetary policy tightening are associated with recessions,” said the paper. “An ‘immaculate disinflation’ would be unprecedented.” (Immaculate, in this instance, refers to the possibility of inflation falling quickly to the Fed’s 2% goal without any serious economic damage).

    Several Fed presidents, governors and top economists were on hand at the Booth School forum to discuss the paper and monetary policy on Friday. The majority of those speaking expressed deep concern about the stubbornness of inflation and general market reaction.

    Inflation won’t quit: Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said that while price growth has moderated from its recent high, the overall pace of inflation remains too high and could be more persistent than her colleagues currently anticipate.

    “I anticipate further rate increases to reach a sufficiently restrictive level, then holding there for some, perhaps extended, time,” echoed Boston Fed President Susan Collins at the conference.

    Collins referred to inflation as “recalcitrant,” a loaded million-dollar word that means uncooperative, or defiant to authority.

    Fed Governor Philip Jefferson struck a more befuddled stance on Friday, observing that inflation continues to baffle economists. “The inflationary forces impinging on the US economy at present represent a complex mixture of temporary and more long-lasting elements that defy simple, parsimonious explanation,” he said. Parsimonious being another million-dollar word for frugal.

    Economists stressed that more pain lies ahead. “It’s important that markets understand that ‘no landing’ is not an option,” said Peter Hooper, vice chair of research at Deutsche Bank, an author of the report.

    While recent data has signaled that the US economy remains strong, “by the time we get to the middle of this year we expect to see some bad news coming and the sooner the markets get that message the more helpful it will be to the Fed,” he said.

    The final word: Former Bank of England Governor Lord Mervyn King summed up what many were thinking on Friday: Given the complexity of the current monetary situation, he said, “I wouldn’t want to give advice to any central banks about what we should do.”

    Researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York have issued a dire warning: If President Joe Biden’s student loan forgiveness plan doesn’t come to fruition, the US could face another credit crisis.

    Some background: The Covid-19 crisis triggered a sudden shift in student loan policy and a new openness to forgiveness. In March 2020, Congress passed the CARES Act, which automatically paused required payments on all federally held student loans.

    That forbearance has since been extended eight times and is set to end as late as August, 40 months after it began.

    The Biden Administration had announced an unprecedented debt cancellation proposal which would provide relief to more than 40 million borrowers. An analysis by the New York Fed found that roughly $441 billion of federal student loans are eligible for forgiveness under the proposal, canceling about 30% of all outstanding federal student loan debt.

    That forgiveness proposal is now on hold after an injunction by the 8th US Circuit Court of Appeals. On Tuesday, The Supreme Court of the United States will hear the case with its decision expected by June 2023.

    What’s on the line: If the Biden Administration’s forgiveness plan survives the court challenge, it will mark the largest mass discharge of consumer debt in modern history, according to the New York Fed. About 40% of those with federal student loan debt would have a zero balance; even more would have a much smaller monthly payment.

    But, “if payments resume without debt relief, we expect both student loan default and delinquencies to rise and potentially surpass pre-pandemic levels,” warned Fed researchers.

    “We note a stark increase in new credit card and auto loan delinquency for borrowers with eligible student loans over the past few quarters, growing at a faster pace than those without student loans and those with ineligible loans,” they wrote.

    Those missed payments suggest that some federal student loan borrowers are having trouble meeting their monthly debt obligations. “We expect these delinquency patterns to worsen if federal student loan payments resume without relief,” said the report.

    The data “may be suggestive of problems to come, a sign of economic distress that may appear particularly concerning when the burden of student loan payments resumes.”

    Future concerns: If student loan borrowers expect future debt cancellation, they may borrow even more, said researchers, which would increase debt balances even more sharply. “Absent direct policies to address this growing burden, taxpayers may be again called to for relief in the future,” they concluded.

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  • 401(k) balances rise, despite economic and market challenges | CNN Business

    401(k) balances rise, despite economic and market challenges | CNN Business

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    New York
    CNN
     — 

    Despite higher prices, endless talk of a possible recession and falling markets, 401(k) participants managed to keep their savings rates relatively steady in the fourth quarter of last year, helping to stabilize their nest eggs and increase their overall average balances.

    That’s according to new data from Fidelity Investments, one of the largest providers of workplace retirement plans, which combined represent $2.8 trillion in assets on its platform.

    “Fortunately, the data show that retirement savers understand the importance of saving for the long-term, despite market shift. We are encouraged to see people look past the current volatility and continue to make smart choices for their future,” said Kevin Barry, president of Workplace Investing at Fidelity.

    By that Barry means the average 401(k) savings rate (including both employee contributions and employer matches) held roughly steady at 13.7%, down from the 13.8% in the third quarter and 13.9% in the second quarter.

    Among generations in the workforce, Baby Boomers had the highest savings rate as a percent of their income (16.5%). The youngest cohort – Gen Z workers – saved 10.2%.

    A third of participants actually increased their contribution rate over the last year, according to Fidelity. But the average rate among this group is still very low – at just 2.6%.

    The average 401(k) balance in Fidelity-administered plans, meanwhile, rose 7% from the third quarter, to $103,900. That said, thanks to poor performances in both stocks and bonds last year, the average is still 23% below the $135,600 recorded at the end of 2021.

    In terms of 401(k) loans, the percent of active plan participants with outstanding ones remained at 16.7%. That’s down from 17% a year earlier and 21% from five years ago, Fidelity said.

    The average outstanding loan amount was $10,200. Among different age groups, Gen Xers had the highest average, followed by Baby Boomers. And even though they are just getting started in their careers and haven’t had a lot of time to amass savings, 3.2% of Gen Z workers also had outstanding 401(k) loans, but their average amount ($3,000) was the lowest among all age groups.

    Hardship withdrawals from 401(k)s – money taken when a participant is under financial stress of some kind (e.g., to prevent eviction, pay for funeral expenses or to cover a near-term tuition bill) – stood at 2.4% for the year, up from 1.9% in 2021. The average amount taken out was $2,200. Unlike a 401(k) loan, a hardship withdrawal does not need to be paid back, and will be taxed. Plus, in some instances it may be subject to a 10% penalty if you’re under 59-1/2.

    The new retirement law, Secure 2.0, includes a provision that will make it easier and less costly for 401(k) participants to take money out of their account for emergency needs up to $1,000 in a year.

    Apart from its workplace retirement plans, Fidelity reported a 10.2% annual increase in the number of IRAs on its platform, noting that 61% of the IRA contributions made in the fourth quarter of last year went into Roth IRAs.

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  • Biden nominates former MasterCard exec Ajay Banga to lead World Bank | CNN Business

    Biden nominates former MasterCard exec Ajay Banga to lead World Bank | CNN Business

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    New York
    CNN
     — 

    President Joe Biden has announced that he’s nominating Ajay Banga, a former MasterCard executive, to serve as president of the World Bank.

    In a statement, Biden said that Banga is “uniquely equipped to lead the World Bank at this critical moment in history” and that he has a “proven track record managing people and systems, and partnering with global leaders around the world to deliver results.”

    Banga has been the vice chairman at General Atlantic, a New York-based investment firm, since 2022. Prior to that, the 63-year-old was the CEO of MasterCard from 2010 to 2021.

    “Raised in India, Ajay has a unique perspective on the opportunities and challenges facing developing countries and how the World Bank can deliver on its ambitious agenda to reduce poverty and expand prosperity,’ Biden said in the statement. Notably, the White House highlighted Banga’s “extensive experience” in creating partnerships to address climate change and financial inclusion,” something Biden pledged would be an important qualification for the next World Bank President.

    Banga would replace previous president David Malpass, who announced last week that he’s stepping down a year early — serving four years of a five-year term.

    Although Malpass had been praised by the World Bank and administration officials for his handling of the global challenges posed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the Covid-19 pandemic, his tenure faced controversy following comments he made last September about climate change. During a panel, herefused to confirm during a climate panel whether he accepted the scientific consensus that burning fossil fuels were dangerously warming the planet.

    After an outpouring of criticism, many opponents called for his resignation. However, he recently told CNN’s Julia Chatterley that he has “no regrets” over his four-year tenure.

    “We’ve achieved many of the things I wanted to…I think it’s really important that institutions have energy, new energy, and this is a good time for the World Bank to do that,” he said.

    US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen praised the decision to name Banga in a statement.

    “He has the right leadership and management skills, experience living and working in emerging markets, and financial expertise to lead the World Bank at a critical moment in its history, deliver on its core development goals, and evolve the Bank to meet global challenges like climate change,” she said.

    US climate envoy John Kerry said Banga is the “right choice” because of his climate change credentials.

    Banga “has proven his ability as a manager of large institutions and understands investment and the mobilization of capital to power the green transition,” Kerry said in a statement.

    The World Bank, a group of 187 nations, lends money to developing countries to help reduce poverty. Former US President Donald Trump appointed Malpass as World Bank chief in 2019 for a five-year period. As the largest shareholder, the United States traditionally appoints its president.

    — CNN’s Sam Fossum contributed to this report.

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  • Norfolk Southern is paying $6.5 million to derailment victims. Meanwhile, it’s shelling out $7.5 billion for shareholders | CNN Business

    Norfolk Southern is paying $6.5 million to derailment victims. Meanwhile, it’s shelling out $7.5 billion for shareholders | CNN Business

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    New York
    CNN
     — 

    Norfolk Southern CEO Alan Shaw pledged Tuesday the freight railroad will spend $6.5 million to help those affected by the release of toxic chemicals from its derailment nearly three weeks ago in East Palestine, Ohio. But in a plan released earlier this year, the company said it’s planning to spend more than a thousand times that amount — $7.5 billion — to repurchase its own shares in order to benefit its shareholders.

    The company spent $3.4 billion on share repurchases last year, and $3.1 billion in 2021, bringing its recent share repurchases to $6.5 billion. That towers over what it said is its financial commitment to East Palestine, which it said exceeds $6.4 million in direct aid to families and government agencies, in addition to what will be required in cleanup costs.

    There is no estimate as to the total cost to Norfolk Southern from the derailment, including the cost of cleanup that the Environmental Protection Agency says will be the railroad’s responsibility.

    It’s not clear how much of the accident’s cost will fall on Norfolk Southern. The company revealed Wednesday during a conference call with investors that it has as much as $1.1 billion worth of liability insurance coverage that it can draw upon to compensate third parties for losses caused by the accident. It also has about $200 million worth of insurance coverage to cover damage to its own property, such as tracks or equipment.

    In March 2022, Norfolk Southern

    (NSC)
    announced a new $10 billion share repurchase plan. Its latest annual financial report, filed just hours before the derailment this month, shows that it still had $7.5 billion available to buy additional shares under that repurchase plan as of December 31.

    Norfolk Southern did not respond to questions Wednesday on whether it expects to change its share repurchase plans in the wake of the derailment.

    The company also returned an additional $1.2 billion to shareholders in the form of dividend payments in 2022, and $1 billion in 2021, bringing total payments to shareholders to $4.6 billion last year and $4.1 billion in 2021.

    The shareholders did much better than the company’s 19,000 employees. Total employee compensation in 2022 came to $2.6 billion, up from $2.4 billion in 2021.

    The amount that Norfolk Southern and other major freight railroads are spending on shareholders got a lot of attention in December, when they successfully fought a move in Congress to require them to give hourly workers at least seven sick days a year as part of a labor contract imposed on the industry by Congress in order to avoid an economically crippling rail strike. And it’s getting new attention in the wake of the derailment, along with questions about whether the environmental disaster could have been avoided if the railroad had spent more on staffing and safety.

    “Corporations do stock buybacks, they do big dividend checks, they lay off workers,” said Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio, on CNN’s State of the Union on Sunday. “They don’t invest in safety rules and safety regulations, and this kind of thing happens.”

    The accident is under investigation by the National Transportation Safety Board. While the cause has yet to be determined, it is known that freight railroads have fought tougher safety rules in the past.

    One rule the industry successfully fought would have required a more modern braking system on trains carrying significant amounts of hazardous materials. The Federal Railroad Administration, which proposed the rule under the Obama administration, estimated a more modern braking system would reduce by nearly 20% the number of rail cars in a derailment that puncture and release their contents.

    The FRA estimated those better brakes would cost the entire industry $493 million, spread over a period of 20 years. The Association of American Railroads, the trade industry group that represents most US freight railroads, estimated a much greater cost — about $3 billion, but again, spread over 20 years. That would mean around $150 million a year for an entire industry that is earning billions of dollars of annual profits.

    Still, it was able to block the rule from ever taking effect, based partly on the argument it was too costly for the potential benefit.

    “The railroads are quick to point out their lack of funds to provide adequate staffing, paid sick leave and improved safety, yet they have billions of dollars to spend on stock repurchases,” said Eddie Hall, national president of the Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers, the industry’s second-largest union behind the one that represents conductors.

    Share repurchases are designed to help increase the value of the stock by reducing the number of shares outstanding.

    In theory, each remaining share becomes more valuable since it represents a greater percentage of the company’s overall ownership. The earnings per share, a key measure used by investors to judge a company’s profitability, can rise even if the total dollars earned by the company goes down, as the pool of shares available to the public shrinks further.

    But Norfolk Southern’s profits aren’t going down. They’re going up — by quite a bit. It posted record profits from railway operations of $4.45 billion in 2021, and broke that record in 2022 when it earned $4.8 billion on that basis.

    Other freight railroads are also reporting improving profits, and have joined Norfolk Southern in massive share repurchases.

    Union Pacific

    (UNP)
    purchased $6.3 billion worth of shares in 2022, and has plans to purchase an additional 84 million shares, worth more than $16 billion at its current value. CSX repurchased $4.7 billion worth of shares last year and has plans to buy an additional $3.3 billion going forward. Like Norfolk Southern, both UP and CSX spent more on share repurchases than they did on total employee compensation.

    Share repurchases are not limited to the rail industry. Chevron

    (CVX)
    recently announced plans to repurchase $75 billion worth of its stock with windfall record profits that came from high oil prices. Across corporate America, share repurchases reached almost $1 trillion for the first time last year, coming in at $936 billion according to S&P Dow Jones Indices, up from $882 billion in 2021.

    Share repurchases are forecast to top $1 trillion this year.

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  • JPMorgan restricts employee use of ChatGPT | CNN Business

    JPMorgan restricts employee use of ChatGPT | CNN Business

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    London
    CNN
     — 

    JPMorgan Chase is temporarily clamping down on the use of ChatGPT among its employees, as the buzzy AI chatbot explodes in popularity.

    The biggest US bank has restricted its use among global staff, according to a person familiar with the matter. The decision was taken not because of a particular issue, but to accord with limits on third-party software due to compliance concerns, the person said. JPMorgan Chase

    (JPM)
    declined to comment.

    ChatGPT was released to the public in late November by artificial intelligence research company Open AI. Since then, the much-hyped tool has been used to turn written prompts into convincing academic essays and creative scripts as well as trip itineraries and computer code.

    Adoption has skyrocketed. UBS estimated that ChatGPT reached 100 million monthly active users in January, two months after its launch. That would make it the fastest-growing online application in history, according to the Swiss bank’s analysts.

    The viral success of ChatGPT has kickstarted a frantic competition among tech companies to rush AI products to market. Google recently unveiled its ChatGPT competitor, which it’s calling Bard, while Microsoft

    (MSFT)
    , an investor in Open AI, debuted its Bing AI chatbot to a limited pool of testers.

    But the releases have boosted concerns about the technology. Demos of both Google and Microsoft’s tools have been called out for producing factual errors. Microsoft, meanwhile, is trying to rein in its Bing chatbot after users reported troubling responses, including confrontational remarks and dark fantasies.

    Some businesses have encouraged workers to incorporate ChatGPT into their daily work. But others worry about the risks. The banking sector, which deals with sensitive client information and is closely watched by government regulators, has extra incentive to tread carefully.

    Schools are also restricting ChatGPT due to concerns it could be used to cheat on assignments. New York City public schools banned it in January.

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  • Amazon closes its acquisition of One Medical, but scrutiny of the deal is not over | CNN Business

    Amazon closes its acquisition of One Medical, but scrutiny of the deal is not over | CNN Business

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    Washington, DC
    CNN
     — 

    Amazon closed its acquisition of health care provider One Medical and its parent in a $3.9 billion deal on Wednesday, hours after the Federal Trade Commission said it would not challenge the purchase but that regulators were still investigating potential competitive and consumer harms of the transaction.

    The landmark deal will turn the e-commerce giant into a provider of primary medical care with access to more than 200 brick-and-mortar doctors’ offices, along with roughly 815,000 One Medical members, according to that company’s latest financial statement.

    The One Medical deal would also allow Amazon to expand its telehealth services and acquire valuable relationships with hospital systems, industry analysts have said.

    On Wednesday, Amazon said One Medical will offer new customers a $55 discount on annual memberships for a limited time.

    “We’re on a mission to make it dramatically easier for people to find, choose, afford, and engage with the services, products, and professionals they need to get and stay healthy, and coming together with One Medical is a big step on that journey,” said Neil Lindsay, senior vice president of Amazon Health Services, in a release. “One Medical has set the bar for what a quality, convenient, and affordable primary care experience should be like. We’re inspired by their human-centered, technology-forward approach and excited to help them continue to grow and serve more patients.”

    But while Amazon can consummate the deal without the immediate threat of an FTC antitrust suit, the agency is still investigating the acquisition and can still challenge the deal after the fact.

    “The FTC’s investigation of Amazon’s acquisition of One Medical continues,” said FTC spokesman Douglas Farrar. “The commission will continue to look at possible harms to competition created by this merger, as well as possible harms to consumers that may result from Amazon’s control and use of sensitive consumer health information held by One Medical.”

    The FTC plans to warn Amazon it may close the deal at its own risk, an agency official said. Known as a “pre-consummation warning,” the FTC began sending such letters to merging companies in 2021 in response to a surge in proposed deals that threatened to overwhelm regulators’ investigative capacity.

    The warning highlights the continued legal risk for Amazon and the potential concerns driving the FTC probe. Worries include not only the potential for Amazon to entrench its economic dominance but also fears that its acquisition of valuable health data could lead to the misuse of that information for other purposes, such as targeted advertising or e-commerce, the agency official said.

    Amazon’s deal to acquire One Medical follows its 2018 purchase of the online pharmacy service PillPack, which later became Amazon Pharmacy. Separately, Amazon partnered with JPMorgan Chase and Berkshire Hathaway on an effort to provide better health care services and insurance at a lower cost to workers and families at the three companies, and possibly other businesses, too. That effort, called Haven, shut down in 2021.

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  • Russia’s economy is hurting despite Putin’s bluster | CNN Business

    Russia’s economy is hurting despite Putin’s bluster | CNN Business

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    London
    CNN
     — 

    When Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine one year ago, Western countries hit back with unprecedented sanctions to punish Moscow and pile pressure on President Vladimir Putin. The aim: to deal an economic blow so severe that Putin would reconsider his brutal war.

    Russia’s economy did weaken as a result. But it also showed surprising resilience. As demand for Russian oil fell in Europe, Moscow redirected its barrels to Asia. The country’s central bank staved off a currency crisis with aggressive capital controls and interest rate hikes. Military expenditure supported the industrial sector, while the scramble to replace Western equipment and technology lifted investment.

    “The Russian economy and system of government have turned out to be much stronger than the West believed,” Putin said in a speech to Russia’s parliament Tuesday.

    Yet cracks are starting to show and they will widen over the next 12 months. The European Union — which spent more than $100 billion on Russian fossil fuels in 2021 — has made huge strides in phasing out purchases. The bloc, which dramatically reduced its dependence on Russian natural gas last year, officially banned most imports of Russian crude oil by sea in December. It enacted a similar block on refined oil products this month.

    Those measures are already straining Russia’s finances as it struggles to find replacement customers. The government reported a budget deficit of about 1,761 billion rubles ($23.5 billion) for January. Expenditure jumped 59% year-over-year, while revenue plunged 35%. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak announced that Russia would cut oil production by about 5% starting in March.

    “The era of windfall profits from the oil and gas market for Russia is over,” Janis Kluge, an expert on Russia’s economy at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, told CNN.

    Meanwhile, the ruble has slumped to its weakest level against the US dollar since last April. The currency’s weakness has contributed to high inflation. And most businesses say they can’t conceive of growing right now given high levels of economic uncertainty, according to a recent survey by a Russian think tank.

    These dynamics place the country’s economy on a trajectory of decline. And they will force Putin to choose between ramping up military spending and investing in social goods like housing and education — a decision that could have consequences both for the war and the Russian public’s support of it.

    “This year could really be the key test,” said Timothy Ash, an associate fellow in the Russia and Eurasia program at Chatham House, a think tank.

    In a bid to bring Russia to heel for its aggression, Western countries have used their sway over the global financial system, unveiling more than 11,300 sanctions since the invasion and freezing some $300 billion of the country’s foreign reserves. At the same time, more than 1,000 companies, ranging from BP

    (BP)
    to McDonald’s

    (MCD)
    and Starbucks

    (SBUX)
    , have exited or curtailed operations in the country, citing opposition to the war and new logistical challenges.

    Russia’s economic output duly contracted by 2.1% last year, according to a preliminary estimate from the government. But the hit was more limited than forecasters initially expected. When sanctions were first imposed, some economists predicted a contraction of 10% or 15%.

    One reason for Russia’s unexpected pluck was its push toward self-sufficiency following Putin’s annexation of Crimea from Ukraine in 2014. Through a policy known as “Fortress Russia,” the government boosted domestic food production and policymakers forced banks to build up their reserves. That created a degree of “durability,” said Ash at Chatham House.

    The swift intervention of Russia’s central bank, which jacked up interest rates to 20% after the invasion and implemented currency controls to buttress the ruble, was also a stabilizing force. So was the need for factories to increase production of military goods and replace items that had been imported from the West.

    But the greatest support came from high energy prices and the world’s continued thirst for oil and other commodities.

    Russia, the world’s second-largest exporter of crude, was able to send barrels that would have gone to Europe to countries like China and India. The European Union, which imported an average of 3.3 million barrels of Russian crude and oil products per day in 2021, was also still buying 2.3 million barrels per day as of November, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

    “It’s a question of natural resources,” Sergey Aleksashenko, Russia’s former deputy minister of finance, said at an event last month hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a think tank. That meant the economy experienced a decline, but “not a collapse,” he added.

    In fact, Russia’s average monthly oil export revenues rose by 24% last year to $18.1 billion, according to the IEA. Yet a repeat performance is unlikely, presaging increasingly tough decisions for Putin.

    The price of a barrel of Urals crude, Russia’s main blend, fell to an average of $49.50 in January after Europe’s oil embargo — as well as a Group of Seven price cap — took effect. By comparison, the global benchmark stood around $82. That suggests that customers like India and China, seeing a smaller pool of interested buyers, are negotiating greater discounts. Russia’s 2023 budget is based on a Urals price of more than $70 per barrel.

    Finding new buyers for processed oil products, which are also subject to new embargoes and price caps, won’t be easy either. China and India have their own network of refineries and prefer to buy crude, noted Ben McWilliams, an energy consultant at Bruegel.

    Meanwhile, gas exports to Europe have plunged since Russia shut its Nord Stream 1 pipeline.

    A motorcyclist rides past an oil depot in New Delhi, India, on Sunday, June 12, 2022.

    Russia’s government relied on the oil and gas sector for 45% of its budget in 2021. As it plans to maximize defense spending, lower revenues inevitably mean trade-offs. Spending plans for 2023 finalized in December involved a decrease in expenditure on housing and health care, as well as a category that includes public infrastructure.

    “Whatever energy resources are obtained, they’ll be spent on military needs,” said Gulnaz Sharafutdinova, acting director of the Russia Institute at King’s College London.

    The International Monetary Fund still expects Russia’s economy to expand by 0.3% this year and 2.1% the next. Yet any outlook is contingent on what happens in Ukraine.

    “Whether the economy shrinks or expands in 2023 will be determined by developments in the war,” Tatiana Orlova, an economist at Oxford Economics, wrote in a note to clients on Tuesday. Shortages of workers tied to military conscription and emigration pose a key risk, she noted.

    The impact of Western sanctions is poised to develop into a crisis over time. Bloomberg Economics estimates that Putin’s war in Ukraine will slash $190 billion off Russia’s gross domestic product by 2026 compared with the country’s prewar path.

    Sectors that rely on imports have been particularly vulnerable. Domestic car makers such as Avtovaz, which manufactures the iconic Ladas, have struggled with shortages of key components and materials.

    A man talks on his phone near a closed H&M store on December 15, 2022 in Moscow, Russia.

    Russia’s auto industry was already weakened after companies such as Volkswagen

    (VLKAF)
    , Renault

    (RNLSY)
    , Ford

    (F)
    and Nissan

    (NSANF)
    halted production and began to sell their local assets last year. Chinese firms have stepped up their presence, part of a broader trend. Even so, sales of new cars dropped 63% year-over-year in January, according to the Association of European Businesses.

    Across sectors, firms are struggling to plan for the future. A survey of more than 1,000 Russian businesses by the Stolypin Institute of Economic Growth in November found that almost half plan to maintain production over the next one to two years and aren’t thinking about growth. The group said this contributed to a high risk of “long-term stagnation of the Russian economy.”

    Given Putin’s ideological commitment to subsuming Ukraine, he’s unlikely to back down, according to Sharafutdinova at King’s College London. But his war chest “is likely, inevitably, to diminish,” she added.

    Prioritizing military spending will also come at a social cost, with a “slow and creeping” erosion of living standards, she added.

    “In normal times, we might have said that the population would protest against that,” Sharafutdinova said. “But of course, these are not normal times.”

    — Clare Sebastian and Olesya Dmitracova contributed reporting.

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  • Dow drops more than 500 points as retail earnings disappoint | CNN Business

    Dow drops more than 500 points as retail earnings disappoint | CNN Business

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    New York
    CNN
     — 

    US stocks dropped on Tuesday afternoon after fourth-quarter earnings and forecasts from mega-retailers like Walmart and Home Depot raised concerns about the strength of demand from the US consumer.

    The Dow was down about 500 points, or 1.5%, on Tuesday afternoon. The S&P 500 fell by 1.6% and the Nasdaq Composite was 1.8% lower.

    Walmart

    (WMT)
    topped revenue expectations, but shares of the stock fell nearly 2% in morning trading after the retailer lowered its outlook for the year ahead. Walmart

    (WMT)
    ’s CFO said that he was worried about inflation and its impact on the US consumer.

    “The consumer is still very pressured, and if you look at economic indicators, balance sheets are running thinner and savings rates are declining relative to previous periods,” Walmart CFO John Rainey said during the earnings call. “And so that’s why we take a pretty cautious outlook on the rest of the year.”

    Shares of the stock had recovered by the early afternoon and were up by about 0.6%.

    Home Depot

    (HD)
    reported record earnings for the fiscal year that ended in January, and boosted both hourly wage and the stock dividend. But the fourth quarter painted a different picture, as the company missed revenue expectations for the first time since 2019, before the pandemic.

    The company also lowered its outlook for the year ahead as executives struck a more cautious tone about recession and inflation forecasts on the call that followed earnings.

    Shares of the stock fell by nearly 6% on Tuesday as the housing market weakens – US existing home sales dropped to their lowest level in more than 12 years in January.

    “After a year of defying gravity, the slowing economy and pressures on consumers have finally caught up with Home Depot,” said Neil Saunders, managing director of GlobalData. “For most of 2022, the number of existing homes sold has been in decline. However, the pace of decline accelerated in December with the volume of completed sales down by a sharp 36.3%.”

    Target, Best Buy, Macy’s and Gap will report later this month.

    Investors, meanwhile, are gearing up for a week full of important economic data. Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last meeting are coming on Wednesday, a second revision of GDP will be released on Thursday and Friday brings January’s Personal Consumption Expenditures – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.

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  • Standard Chartered plans hiring spree in Hong Kong as city reopens to China | CNN Business

    Standard Chartered plans hiring spree in Hong Kong as city reopens to China | CNN Business

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    Hong Kong
    CNN
     — 

    Standard Chartered is going on a hiring spree in Hong Kong this year, in a sign of renewed confidence in its biggest market as the city reopens its border with mainland China.

    The British bank said it would add 300 to 500 employees to its ranks of roughly 5,500 to 5,800. That would lift its current headcount in the city by up to 9%.

    The move comes as the lender’s business in the global finance hub begins to recover to pre-pandemic levels.

    In a results presentation Friday, Chief Financial Officer Andy Halford said that despite Hong Kong’s economic challenges, the bank grew its operating income in the city by 9% to just over $3.7 billion, which was “back to around 2019 levels.”

    The firm is encouraged by early signs of “a pickup” in Hong Kong, he told analysts.

    Standard Chartered

    (SCBFF)
    Hong Kong CEO Mary Huen said the new recruitment drive would position the bank to capitalize on the reopening of the city’s border with mainland China.

    China fully reopened its borders with its special administrative regions of Hong Kong and Macao this month, in what is expected to be a major boost for the economies of the two cities.

    The reopening “is set to increase business opportunities” in fintech, wealth management and China’s Greater Bay Area, an economic zone that connects Guangdong province with Hong Kong and Macao, Huen said Friday.

    “We need to hire more people as we expect there will be a good growth in loan and wealth management demand this year,” she added.

    HSBC

    (HSBC)
    , Hong Kong’s leading bank, also flagged a strong performance in the city.

    In a Tuesday earnings statement, CEO Noel Quinn said the London-based lender had “gained market share last year in key products, including customer deposits, insurance and trade finance.”

    Chairman Mark Tucker said the firm was anticipating a boost in business from China’s resurgence.

    “The reopening of the border means that Hong Kong, and the entire Greater Bay Area, are likely to be major beneficiaries, and I expect to see a strong recovery,” he said in the statement.

    HSBC reported a 92% jump in adjusted pretax profit to $6.8 billion in the fourth quarter of 2022, which was higher than analysts’ expectations. Hong Kong is also its biggest market.

    The city hopes to stage a comeback as it continues to recover from two and a half years of pandemic restrictions.

    In November, the city’s leader, John Lee, welcomed some of Wall Street’s top executives to its biggest international event in years, urging them to invest locally and seeking to reassure them that it would maintain a distinct role to that of mainland China.

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  • China’s capital offers $6 monthly handout to offset inflation. The public says it’s not nearly enough | CNN Business

    China’s capital offers $6 monthly handout to offset inflation. The public says it’s not nearly enough | CNN Business

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    Hong Kong
    CNN
     — 

    Beijing will give out a $6 monthly cash subsidy to low-income residents to cushion the impact of rising food prices, a move that has unexpectedly angered many online who say the amount is far too low.

    The announcement from the city government comes as food inflation accelerated in China after policymakers scrapped their zero-Covid strategy in December and eased monetary policy further to fuel economic recovery.

    Last week, protests by retirees broke out in the cities of Wuhan and Dalian over cuts to their medical care benefits, highlighting the growing risk of unrest over livelihood issues as China’s economy struggles to regain its footing after being drained by pandemic policies.

    The demonstrations were the latest outburst of public discontent since mass protests against Covid curbs gripped the country late last year. The recent protests underscored the financial pressure on local governments, after three years of the zero-Covid policy strained their coffers and a property market slump severely eroded their income.

    According to the Beijing Municipal Commission of Development and Reform, the city’s economic regulator, more than 300,000 people on low incomes will each receive a cash payment of 40 yuan (about $6) per month. The first payment will be given out later this month and it’s unclear for how long they will continue.

    “In January, food prices in Beijing rose by 6.6%, meeting the conditions for starting the price-linked subsidy program,” the state-run Beijing Daily newspaper quoted an official from the commission as saying in a Friday report.

    “[We will] try to do a good job in ensuring the basic livelihood of the needy people … and continuously enhance the people’s sense of gain, happiness and security.”

    China launched a low-income subsidy program in 2011 to offer cash handouts to the needy when the consumer price index or food prices hit certain thresholds. Each city or region sets its own standard as living costs vary across the country.

    The news of Beijing’s latest handout was not well received by the public, who took to social media to complain about the high cost of living in the city.

    “40 yuan? Are you serious? [When] the low-income people take the subway to collect the money and then they return, they lose 8 yuan,” said one comment on Weibo.

    “Is it like an insult? [The amount] just subsidizes a bowl of noodles,” another Weibo user said.

    Some people criticized the country’s weak social welfare system, while others blasted the government’s move to write off billions of debt to other countries.

    “Can’t we question the move? Do you think the current welfare system in our country is good? Can it meet the needs of people?” one said.

    China’s consumer inflation accelerated in January, as the CPI rose 2.1% from a year earlier. Although the headline figure remains relatively low compared to other countries, food prices jumped 6.2%, with pork and fruit prices rising the most.

    In Beijing, food prices outpaced the national level. Vegetable prices soared 24% last month.

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  • Warren Buffett is missing out on this year’s market comeback | CNN Business

    Warren Buffett is missing out on this year’s market comeback | CNN Business

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    A version of this story first appeared in CNN Business’ Before the Bell newsletter. Not a subscriber? You can sign up right here.


    New York
    CNN
     — 

    Warren Buffett is arguably the most legendary investor of all time. But the Oracle of Omaha has missed out on this year’s stock market rally. So far, at least.

    Shares of Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway

    (BRKB)
    conglomerate, a company that owns businesses ranging from Geico and the Burlington Northern Santa Fe railroad to consumer brands like Dairy Queen, Duracell and Fruit of the Loom, are down slightly this year — lagging the market, as the S&P 500 is up 6%. (The Nasdaq has done even better, surging 12%.)

    Berkshire Hathaway also has a giant stock portfolio that Buffett helps run. Apple

    (AAPL)
    is now by far the top holding for Berkshire, which also has big stakes in Bank of America

    (BAC)
    , Chevron

    (CVX)
    , American Express

    (AXP)
    and Coca-Cola

    (KO)
    .

    So is Berkshire’s portfolio, dare we say it, a little too boring? After all, if you want exposure to the big blue chips he owns, you could just buy an S&P 500 index fund.

    Buffett, in fact, has promoted that idea to investors many times, arguing that most individual stock pickers will not be able to beat the market. The 92-year-old Buffett, who has a net worth of more than $100 billion according to Forbes, even said that he wants the trustee in charge of his will to put 90% of his wife’s inheritance in index funds.

    Still, investors pay extremely close attention to Buffett every time he speaks. So traders will be poring over every word in his annual shareholder letter, which will be released the morning of Saturday, February 25, along with Berkshire’s latest earnings report.

    Don’t expect any major surprises. Buffett will probably continue to extol the virtues of a long-term, patient approach to investing and give a bullish outlook for the US economy. And to his credit, that usually pays dividends: Berkshire stock was up 3% last year in a down market.

    But market watchers are looking to see what Buffett says about the current inflationary scourge that has had a big impact on consumers and investors. He has lived through a couple of bouts of high inflation, after all.

    “I would like to hear Buffett address what’s going on with interest rates and inflation up as much they are,” said Steve Check, president of Check Capital Management, an investment firm that owns Berkshire shares. “He talked a lot about how concerned he was in the 1970s and 1980s.”

    Buffett has made numerous comments about inflation over the past few decades. And he was particularly nervous during the late 1970s and early 1980s, when soaring oil prices created an inflationary shock that severely hurt the economy.

    “High rates of inflation create a tax on capital that makes much corporate investment unwise,” Buffett said in his 1980 shareholder letter to Berkshire investors. Buffett also described inflation as a gigantic parasitic “tapeworm” for businesses in 1981.

    Buffett may also need to address how top-heavy and concentrated his portfolio has become. Berkshire’s five largest holdings make up about 75% of the company’s stock investments.

    “The portfolio is significantly overweight [in] technology, energy, consumer staples, and financials relative to the S&P 500,” said Bill Stone, chief investment officer with The Glenview Trust Company, another Berkshire shareholder, in a report. Stone noted that Berkshire also has big stakes in Kraft Heinz

    (KHC)
    and oil company Occidental Petroleum

    (OXY)
    .

    Investors also want to hear more about what Buffett plans to do with Berkshire’s massive pile of cash. The company has more than $100 billion on its balance sheet. Are more acquisitions coming?

    Buffett has talked for the past few years about how he’s longing to do an “elephant-sized” deal with Berkshire’s cash. Its most recent big deal was last year’s purchase of insurer Alleghany for $11.6 billion.

    Still, the recent sluggish performance of Berkshire’s stock is unlikely to deter the faithful Buffett fans, many of whom are expected to make the annual pilgrimage to Omaha on May 6 for the company’s shareholder meeting.

    Berkshire vice chairman Charlie Munger will likely be on stage with Buffett. So will Greg Abel, the chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway Energy who Buffett has handpicked to eventually succeed him as Berkshire Hathaway CEO.

    Buffett’s faith in the US economy is well founded. American consumers have proven to be remarkably resilient despite rampant inflation. The surprisingly strong retail sales gains for January is further proof of that.

    Investors will get several more clues about consumer spending this week when several top retailers report earnings.

    Dow components Walmart

    (WMT)
    and Home Depot

    (HD)
    are the highlights. Walmart

    (WMT)
    , which has a massive grocery business, should shed some light on how shoppers are coping with surging grocery prices.

    Walmart could still benefit from its reputation as a place for bargains, though. That could even attract more affluent shoppers looking to save a buck.

    “With inflation remaining elevated in the U.S., we expect Walmart to see continued trade-down benefits…particularly from higher-income customers,” said Arun Sundaram, an analyst at CFRA Research, in a report.

    And investors will be looking for clues about the health of the housing market when Home Depot reports. Placer.ai, a research firm that measures foot traffic at top retailers, said in a recent report that consumers are returning to Home Depot and rival Lowe’s at almost pre-pandemic levels — even despite the housing slowdown.

    One reason? Current homeowners may decide to spend more on renovations if they now plan to stick in their current house longer instead of looking to sell.

    “Although the hot home-buying market is cooling off…foot traffic remains close to pre-pandemic levels due to a shift towards projects aimed at sprucing up a current living space,” said Placer.ai’s Ezra Carmel in a report. “It appears that projects that enhance the prospect of staying in place also have the ability to drive visits.”

    Investors will be keeping close tabs on several other retailers set to report earnings this week, including TJX

    (TJX)
    — the owner of TJ Maxx, Marshalls and HomeGoods — as well as online retailers eBay

    (EBAY)
    , Etsy

    (ETSY)
    , Overstock

    (OSTK)
    , Wayfair

    (W)
    and China’s Alibaba

    (BABA)
    .

    The US government is also set to release personal spending figures for January on Friday, another data point that will give a glimpse of consumers’ financial health.

    Monday: US stock and bond markets closed for Presidents’ Day

    Tuesday: US existing home sales; Eurozone and UK PMI; earnings from Walmart, Home Depot, Medtronic

    (MDT)
    , Fluor

    (FLR)
    , Molson Coors

    (TAP)
    , Caesars Entertainment

    (CZR)
    , Diamondback Energy

    (FANG)
    , Chesapeake Energy

    (CHK)
    , Palo Alto Networks

    (PANW)
    , Coinbase, La-Z-Boy

    (LZB)
    and Hostess Brands

    (TWNK)

    Wednesday: Weekly crude oil inventories; earnings from Stellantis, Baidu

    (BIDU)
    , TJX, Garmin

    (GRMN)
    , Overstock, Wingstop

    (WING)
    , Nvidia

    (NVDA)
    , eBay, Etsy and Bumble

    Thursday: US weekly jobless claims; US Q4 GDP (second estimate); Eurozone inflation; Turkey interest rate decision; earnings from Alibaba, Netease

    (NTES)
    , Keurig Dr Pepper

    (KDP)
    , Wayfair, Newmont, Domino’s

    (DPZ)
    , Papa John’s

    (PZZA)
    , Yeti

    (YETI)
    , Nikola, CNN owner Warner Bros. Discovery, Block

    (SQ)
    , Booking Holdings

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    , Live Nation

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    , Carvana

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    , Intuit

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    and Beyond Meat

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    Friday: US personal income and spending; US PCE inflation figures; US new home sales; Japan inflation; Germany Q4 GDP; earnings from CIBC

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    , Scripps

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    and Cinemark

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    Saturday: Berkshire Hathaway earnings and Warren Buffett annual shareholder letter

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  • Here are the US cities where home prices are actually falling | CNN Business

    Here are the US cities where home prices are actually falling | CNN Business

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    Washington, DC
    CNN
     — 

    Home prices are going up across the country — in aggregate. Looking at individual markets, however, some are showing prices have fallen from a year ago.

    Single-family median home prices increased 4% in the fourth quarter from a year ago to $378,700. Prices were strongest in the Northeast in the last quarter, up 5.3%; followed by the South, up 4.9%; the Midwest, up 4% and the West, up 2.6%, according to the National Association of Realtors.

    But drill down to the market level and it’s clear that prices in some areas are declining from the prior year. The positive regional numbers mask that about 11% of individual housing markets tracked by NAR — 20 of 186 cities — experienced home price declines in the fourth quarter of last year.

    “A few markets may see double-digit price drops, especially some of the more expensive parts of the country, which have also seen weaker employment and higher instances of residents moving to other areas,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist.

    Nearly all of the most expensive places to buy are in the West and half of the 10 most expensive cities are in California. Several of those places are seeing prices fall the most.

    San Jose, California, was the most expensive place to purchase a home in the United States in the fourth quarter. But that median price of $1,577,500 is actually down 5.8% from a year ago — and prices there have already dropped 17% from the peak $1,900,000 median price in the second quarter of last year, according to NAR.

    San Francisco had the biggest price drop in the country, year over year, last quarter, with the median price of $1,230,000 — down 6.1% from a year ago. Prices for San Francisco homes are already down 21% in the fourth quarter from the peak median price of $1,550,000 in the second quarter.

    Among the most expensive cities that saw prices falling are Anaheim, California, with the median price of $1,132,000, down 1.6% from a year ago; Los Angeles, with the median price of $829,100, down 1.3%; and Boulder, Colorado, with the median price of $759,500, down 2.0%.

    Other places with falling prices saw the big price increases during the frenzied home buying market of the past few years. They also tend to be appealing lifestyle destinations where people moved to as remote work provided more flexibility. These include Boise, Idaho, where prices fell 3.4% from a year ago and Austin, Texas, where prices are down 1.3%.

    The good news for buyers looking for price relief is that the 4% median price hike in the fourth quarter is less than the 8.6% increase in the third quarter. In addition, the price increases are smaller, with far fewer markets experiencing double-digit price gains in the fourth quarter.

    “A slowdown in home prices is underway and welcomed, particularly as the typical home price has risen 42% in the past three years,” said Yun, noting these cost increases have far surpassed wage increases and consumer price inflation since 2019.

    Throughout much of the pandemic, home prices across the country moved in a single direction: up. Some hotspots like Austin and Boise saw prices skyrocket. Other areas — particularly in the Midwest — saw prices go up more moderately. Yet, because mortgage rates were near historic lows, buyers came out in droves.

    That story changed last year, when mortgage rates spiked as a result of the Federal Reserve’s historic campaign to rein in inflation. Homebuying fell off a cliff. By the end of 2022, sales of existing homes were down nearly 18% from 2021 as would-be homebuyers left the market, according to NAR.

    Typically, a drop in demand to buy would mean excess supply and ultimately lead to prices coming down. But that’s not happening, broadly speaking, in the housing market.

    Instead, prices for single-family homes climbed in nearly 90% of metro areas tracked by NAR in the fourth quarter: 166 markets out of 186 saw prices still going up. The national median price of a single-family home increased 4% last quarter from one year ago to $378,700.

    How can this be?

    One main driver of this phenomenon is that there is a shortage of inventory due to chronic underbuilding of affordable homes in the United States, along with homeowners who don’t want to part with the ultra-low mortgage rate they secured over the past few years.

    “Even with a projected reduction in home sales this year, prices are expected to remain stable in the vast majority of the markets due to extremely limited supply,” said Yun.

    There are still places where home prices continue to climb at double-digit rates. The top 10 cities with the largest year-over-year price increases all recorded gains of at least 14.5%, with seven of those markets in Florida and the Carolinas, according to NAR.

    Farmington, New Mexico, saw the biggest price increase in the fourth quarter, up 20.3% from a year ago. It was followed by Sarasota, Florida, up 19.5%; Naples, Florida, up 17.2%; Greensboro, North Carolina, up 17.0%; Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, up 16.2%; Oshkosh, Wisconsin, up 16.0%; Winston-Salem, North Carolina, up 15.7%; El Paso, Texas, up 15.2%; Punta Gorda, Florida, up 15.2%; and Daytona Beach, Florida, up 14.5%.

    In the last quarter of 2022 a family needed a qualifying income of at least $100,000 to afford a 10% down payment mortgage in 71 markets, up from 59 in the prior quarter, according to NAR.

    Yet there were 16 markets where a family needed a qualifying income of less than $50,000 to afford a home, although that was down from 17 the previous quarter. Some of those included Peoria, Illinois, where a family can qualify for a loan with an income of $33,660; Waterloo, Iowa, with an income of $40,639; and Montgomery, Alabama, with an income of $48,172.

    Nationally, the monthly mortgage payment on a typical existing single-family home with a 20% down payment was $1,969 in the fourth quarter according to NAR. That’s a 7% increase from the third quarter of last year, when the monthly payment was $1,838, but a major surge of 58% — or a $720 monthly increase — from one year ago.

    This made the affordability picture even harder for many home buyers. Families typically spent 26.2% of their income on mortgage payments, which was up from 25% in the prior quarter and 17.5% one year ago.

    First-time buyers were evidently pushed to a breaking point on affordability. They typically spent 39.5% of their family income on mortgage payments, up from 37.8% in the previous quarter. A mortgage is considered unaffordable if the monthly payment, including principal and interest, amounts to more than 25% of the family’s income. Generally, a common financial rule of thumb is to not spend more than 30% of your income on housing costs.

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  • Biden administration releases data breaking down student loan relief applications by congressional district | CNN Politics

    Biden administration releases data breaking down student loan relief applications by congressional district | CNN Politics

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    CNN
     — 

    The Department of Education released a breakdown of federal student loan forgiveness applications by congressional district on Friday, providing a new window into the demographics of borrowers seeking relief across both Republican and Democratic-represented districts.

    The new data is being released as the fate of President Joe Biden’s debt relief plan remains in limbo, with the US Supreme Court set to soon hear cases challenging its legality later this month. The initiative would offer up to $20,000 of individual debt forgiveness to millions of low- and middle-income borrowers, but ongoing legal challenges have meant that no one has received relief – including millions of borrowers whose applications have already been approved.

    The White House says the plan is vital in order to provide targeted debt relief to certain federal student-loan borrowers affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. But many Republicans say that the relief will make inflation worse and argue it’s unfair to individuals who didn’t take out student loans or have already paid them off. They’ve also criticized the administration’s legal justification for issuing the relief through executive authority.

    The Department of Education received about 26 million applications for debt relief by the time a federal district court judge blocked the program in November. More than 16 million of those borrowers’ applications were fully approved and more than 40 million borrowers would qualify for the program, according to the administration.

    “Across the country, in every congressional district there is a strong desire for the Biden-Harris Administration’s one-time debt relief program,” a Department of Education official said about the new data. “In every single congressional district, at least half of eligible borrowers either applied or were deemed auto-eligible for debt relief, and that was only in the one month that the application was available before the program got blocked because of lawsuits.”

    In every congressional district, the official said, at least 30% of eligible borrowers were approved to have their debt discharged before the program was blocked. Some 81% of all applications for relief came from the bottom 80% of congressional districts when broken down by average income, the official added.

    A new Politico analysis of additional zip code data from the department obtained though a public records request also shows that borrowers living in lower-income areas applied for relief at a higher rate compared to those who live in wealthier neighborhoods, and most applications came from places where the per-capita income is under $35,000. Non-White majority zip codes accounted for more forgiveness applications per capita than majority-White zip codes.

    Friday’s data build on earlier numbers released by the Department of Education which showed a state-by-state breakdown of student loan forgiveness applications, which were published shortly after independent auditors questioned the estimated cost of the program.

    The the latest release coincides with the Supreme Court planning to hear two cases pertaining to Biden’s student loan forgiveness program later this month, including one from several Republican-led states.

    Nebraska, Missouri, Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas and South Carolina say that the Department of Education did not have the legal authority to issue such a cancellation. They argue that it violates the separation of powers and that Biden is using the pandemic as a pretext to mask his true goal of fulfilling a campaign promise to erase student-loan debt.

    They put forward several theories that they say allow them to get into court to challenge a program they argue unlawfully invokes Covid “to assert power beyond anything Congress could have conceived.”

    Another case being heard by the high court this month was brought by two individual borrowers – Myra Brown and Alexander Taylor – who are not qualified for full debt relief forgiveness and who say they were denied an opportunity to comment on Education Secretary Miguel Cardona’s decision to provide targeted student loan debt relief to some.

    Earlier this month, 126 House Republicans – led by Education and the Workforce Committee Chairwoman Virginia Foxx of North Carolina and South Carolina Rep. Jeff Duncan – filed an amicus brief opposing the debt forgiveness effort.

    According to the White House data, in Foxx’s district, approximately 61% of borrowers, some 46,300 people, applied or were automatically eligible for relief. In Duncan’s district, about 59% of borrowers, 51,400 people, applied or were automatically eligible for relief.

    A number of members in Republican leadership, including Majority Leader Steve Scalise, Majority Whip Tom Emmer, Conference Chair Elise Stefanik and Policy Committee Chair Gary Palmer also signed onto the brief.

    House Speaker Kevin McCarthy did not sign onto the brief, but he has been critical of the president’s plan.

    McCarthy’s home state of California, the most populous state in the nation, has 2.3 million people who have applied or were automatically eligible for relief – the most out of any state. Approximately 60% of borrowers in the speaker’s district applied or were automatically eligible for relief, with 31,600 borrowers already fully approved for relief out of 49,800 who have applied or were automatically eligible.

    Representatives for Foxx, Duncan, Scalise, Emmer, Stefanik, Palmer and McCarthy did not respond to CNN’s request for comment on the new data.

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  • China’s property crash is prompting banks to offer mortgages to 70-year-olds | CNN Business

    China’s property crash is prompting banks to offer mortgages to 70-year-olds | CNN Business

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    Hong Kong
    CNN
     — 

    The property market in China is so depressed that some banks are resorting to drastic measures, including allowing people to pay off mortgages until they are 95 years old.

    Some banks in the cities of Nanning, Hangzhou, Ningbo and Beijing have extended the upper age limit on mortgages to between 80 and 95, according to a number of state media reports. That means people aged 70 can now take out loans with maturities of between 10 and 25 years.

    China’s property market is in the midst of a historic downturn. New home prices had fallen for 16 straight months through December. Sales by the country’s top 100 developers last year were only 60% of 2021 levels.

    Analysts say the new age limits, which aren’t yet official national policy, aim to breathe life into the country’s moribund property market while taking into consideration China’s rapidly aging population, said Yan Yuejin, a property analyst at E-House China Holdings, a real estate services firm, in a recent research note.

    “Basically, it’s a policy tool to stimulate housing demand, as it can alleviate the debt payment burden and encourage home buying,” he added.

    The new mortgage terms are like a “relay loan.” If the elderly borrower isn’t able to repay, his or her children must carry on with the mortgage, he said.

    Last month, China reported that its population shrank in 2022 for the first time in more than 60 years, a new milestone in the country’s deepening demographic crisis with significant implications for its slowing economy. The number of people aged 60 or above increased to 280 million by the end of last year, or 19.8% of the population.

    The mortgage borrower’s age plus mortgage length should not usually exceed 70 years, according to previous rules published by the banking regulator. China’s average life expectancy is around 78.

    The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission hasn’t commented publicly about the new terms.

    But bank branches across the country are setting their own terms on these multi-generational loans.

    According to the Beijing News, a branch of Bank of Communications in the city said borrowers as old as 70 can take out home loans lasting 25 years, which means the upper age limit on its mortgages has been lifted to 95.

    But there are also prerequisites: The mortgage needs to be guaranteed by the borrower’s children, and their combined monthly income must be at least twice the monthly mortgage payment.

    Separately, a branch of Citic Bank has extended the upper age limit on its mortgages to 80, the paper said, citing a bank client manager.

    Calls to the Beijing branches of Citic Bank and Bank of Communications were not answered.

    Hong Hao, chief economist at Grow Investment Group, said this was a “drastic” measure and “could be a marketing gimmick to attract the elderly to pay [mortgages] for the younger generation.”

    Yan from E-House said the main beneficiary of the move might not be the elderly, but middle-aged borrowers between 40 and 59. Under the extended payment cutoff age, those people could get a mortgage for 30 years — the maximum length allowed in China.

    Compared with previous terms, it means those borrowers could pay less each month.

    “It is obviously a way to alleviate the debt payment burden,” said Hong.

    According to calculations by E-House, if a bank extends the upper age limit to 80, borrowers aged from 40 to 59 can get 10 additional years on their mortgages. Assuming their mortgage is one million yuan ($145,416), then their monthly payment can be reduced by 1,281 yuan ($186), or 21%.

    Chinese households have grown reluctant to purchase new homes in the past year, as the now-defunct Covid curbs, falling home prices and rising unemployment have discouraged would-be buyers. Last summer, protests that erupted in dozens of cities were staged by people refusing to pay mortgages on unfinished homes, dealing a further blow to market sentiment.

    Authorities have rolled out a flurry of stimulus measures to try to revive the housing market, including several cuts to lending rates and measures to ease the liquidity crisis for developers — so that they can resume stalled construction and deliver pre-sold homes to buyers as quickly as possible.

    Other than Beijing, some banks in Nanning, the provincial capital of Guangxi province, have raised the upper age limit on mortgages to 80, according to the city’s official newspaper Nanguo Zaobao.

    In the eastern cities of Ningbo and Hangzhou, several local lenders are advertising age limits of 75 or 80, a relaxation from previous rules, according to reports by government-owned Ningbo Daily and Hangzhou Daily.

    “If the applicant is too old to meet the loan requirement, they can have their children as the guarantor,” a lender was quoted as saying.

    But Wang Yuchen, a real estate lawyer at Beijing Jinsu Law Firm, warned such mortgages were “risky.”

    It’s understandable that many cities are trying to revive their housing markets by reducing the monthly debt payment and enlisting more elderly people into the pool of home buyers, he said in a written commentary on his WeChat account.

    “But the elderly have relatively poor repayment ability. On the one hand, it could affect their quality of life in old age, as they continue carrying the mortgage debt mountain and work for the bank until the last moment of their lives,” he said. “On the other hand, the associated risks may be transferred to their children, increasing their financial pressure.”

    “For some home buyers, choosing this way to purchase a house is probably because of their lack of funds. But it’s risky to do so at this time,” he said, adding that the property market is in a structural downturn and the government is still working to curb speculation.

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  • Inflation pushes up mortgage rates for second week in a row | CNN Business

    Inflation pushes up mortgage rates for second week in a row | CNN Business

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    Washington, DC
    CNN
     — 

    Mortgage rates climbed higher for the second consecutive week, following four weeks of declines. Inflation is running hotter, making rates more volatile, with the expectation that they will move in the 6% to 7% range over the next few weeks.

    The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.32% in the week ending February 16, up from 6.12% the week before, according to data from Freddie Mac released Thursday. A year ago, the 30-year fixed-rate was 3.92%.

    After climbing for most of 2022, mortgage rates had been trending downward since November, as various economic indicators indicated inflation may have peaked. But a stronger-than-expected jobs report and a Consumer Price Index report that showed inflation is only moderately easing suggest the Federal Reserve could continue hiking its benchmark lending rate in its battle against inflation.

    Inflation is keeping mortgage rates volatile, said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist.

    “The economy is showing signs of resilience, mainly due to consumer spending, and rates are increasing,” said Khater. “Overall housing costs are also increasing and therefore impacting inflation, which continues to persist.”

    The average mortgage rate is based on mortgage applications that Freddie Mac receives from thousands of lenders across the country. The survey includes only borrowers who put 20% down and have excellent credit. Many buyers who put down less money upfront or have less than ideal credit will pay more than the average rate.

    Investors are digesting the latest economic data, said George Ratiu, Realtor.com manager of economic research.

    The Fed does not set the interest rates that borrowers pay on mortgages directly, but its actions influence them. Mortgage rates tend to track the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds, which move based on a combination of anticipation about the Fed’s actions, what the Fed actually does and investors’ reactions. When Treasury yields go up, so do mortgage rates; when they go down, mortgage rates tend to follow.

    “While the Fed signaled that it will continue to raise rates this year, the moves are expected to come in 25 basis point increments, a less aggressive tightening than what we saw in 2022,” said Ratiu. “The central bank is acknowledging that it sees its monetary actions having a tangible effect on inflation. The CPI data out this week seems to confirm the bank’s views.”

    At the same time, he said, many companies expect the economy will enter a recession as a result of the Fed’s rate hikes, even in the face of data pointing to continued resilience.

    “This expectation is becoming more visible in the growing number of companies resorting to layoffs as a hedge against a potential economic slowdown,” he said. “People who are laid off pull back on spending, and even those who are still employed may begin to do the same due to worries about losing their job, thus potentially sending consumer spending into a downward spiral.”

    For home buyers, the cost of financing a home is expected to go up.

    Already, rates have been climbing in recent weeks, leading to a drop in mortgage applications. Last week, applications fell 7.7% from one week earlier, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

    Buyers are proving to be interest rate sensitive, according to MBA.

    “Purchase applications dropped to their lowest level since the beginning of this year and were more than 40% lower than a year ago,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s vice president and deputy chief economist. “Potential buyers remain quite sensitive to the current level of mortgage rates, which are more than two percentage points above last year’s levels and have significantly reduced buyers’ purchasing power.”

    Mortgage rates are expected to move in the 6% to 7% range over the next few weeks, said Ratiu.

    For housing markets, he said, “the rebound in rates translates into higher mortgage payments, adding pressure on homebuyers.”

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