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  • AI fears overblown? Theoretical physicist calls chatbots ‘glorified tape recorders’ | CNN Business

    AI fears overblown? Theoretical physicist calls chatbots ‘glorified tape recorders’ | CNN Business

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    New York
    CNN
     — 

    The public’s anxiety over new AI technology is misguided, according to theoretical physicist Michio Kaku.

    In an interview with CNN’s Fareed Zakaria on Sunday, the futurologist said chatbots like OpenAI’s ChatGPT will benefit society and increase productivity. But fear has driven people to largely focus on the negative implications of the programs, which he terms “glorified tape recorders.”

    “It takes snippets of what’s on the web created by a human, splices them together and passes it off as if it created these things,” he said. “And people are saying, ‘Oh my God, it’s a human, it’s humanlike.’”

    However, he said, chatbots cannot discern true from false: “That has to be put in by a human.”

    According to Kaku, humanity is in its second stage of computer evolution. The first was the analog stage, “when we computed with sticks, stones, levers, gears, pulleys, string.”

    After that, around World War II, he said, we switched to electricity-powered transistors. It made the development of the microchip possible and helped shape today’s digital landscape.

    But this digital landscape rests on the idea of two states like “on” and “off,” and uses binary notation composed of zeros and ones.

    “Mother Nature would laugh at us because Mother Nature does not use zeros and ones,” Kaku said. “Mother Nature computes on electrons, electron waves, waves that create molecules. And that’s why we’re now entering stage three.”

    He believes the next technological stage will be in the quantum realm.

    Quantum computing is an emerging technology utilizing the various states of particles like electrons to vastly increase a computer’s processing power. Instead of using computer chips with two states, quantum computers use various states of vibrating waves. It makes them capable of analyzing and solving problems much faster than normal computers.

    Several tech giants – IBM

    (IBM)
    , Microsoft

    (MSFT)
    , Google

    (GOOG)
    and Amazon

    (AMZN)
    , among others – are developing their own quantum computers, and have granted access to a number of companies to use their technology through the cloud. The computers could help businesses with risk analysis, supply chain logistics, and machine learning.

    But beyond business applications, Kaku said quantum computing could also help advance health care. “Cancer, Parkinson’s, Alzheimer’s disease – these are diseases at the molecular level. We’re powerless to cure these diseases because we have to learn the language of nature, which is the language of molecules and quantum electrons.”

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    August 13, 2023
  • Exclusive: Georgia prosecutors have messages showing Trump’s team is behind voting system breach | CNN Politics

    Exclusive: Georgia prosecutors have messages showing Trump’s team is behind voting system breach | CNN Politics

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    CNN
     — 

    Atlanta-area prosecutors investigating efforts to overturn the 2020 election results in Georgia are in possession of text messages and emails directly connecting members of Donald Trump’s legal team to the early January 2021 voting system breach in Coffee County, sources tell CNN.

    Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis is expected to seek charges against more than a dozen individuals when her team presents its case before a grand jury next week. Several individuals involved in the voting systems breach in Coffee County are among those who may face charges in the sprawling criminal probe.

    Investigators in the Georgia criminal probe have long suspected the breach was not an organic effort sprung from sympathetic Trump supporters in rural and heavily Republican Coffee County – a county Trump won by nearly 70% of the vote. They have gathered evidence indicating it was a top-down push by Trump’s team to access sensitive voting software, according to people familiar with the situation.

    Trump allies attempted to access voting systems after the 2020 election as part of the broader push to produce evidence that could back up the former president’s baseless claims of widespread fraud.

    While Trump’s January 2021 call to Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger and effort to put forward fake slates of electors have long been considered key pillars of Willis’ criminal probe, the voting system breach in Coffee County quietly emerged as an area of focus for investigators roughly one year ago. Since then, new evidence has slowly been uncovered about the role of Trump’s attorneys, the operatives they hired and how the breach, as well as others like it in other key states, factored into broader plans for overturning the election.

    Together, the text messages and other court documents show how Trump lawyers and a group of hired operatives sought to access Coffee County’s voting systems in the days before January 6, 2021, as the former president’s allies continued a desperate hunt for any evidence of widespread fraud they could use to delay certification of Joe Biden’s electoral victory.

     Last year, a former Trump official testified under oath to the House January 6 select committee that plans to access voting systems in Georgia were discussed in meetings at the White House, including during an Oval Office meeting on December 18, 2020,  that included Trump. 

    Six days before pro-Trump operatives gained unauthorized access to voting systems, the local elections official who allegedly helped facilitate the breach sent a “written invitation” to attorneys working for Trump, according to text messages obtained by CNN.

    Investigators have scrutinized the actions of various individuals who were involved, including Misty Hampton, a former Coffee County elections official who authored the letter of invitation referenced in text messages and other documents that have been turned over to prosecutors, multiple sources told CNN.

    They have also examined the involvement of Trump’s then attorney Rudy Giuliani – who was informed last year he was a target in the Fulton County investigation – and fellow Trump lawyer Sidney Powell as part of their probe, according to people familiar with the matter.

    A spokesperson for Willis’ office declined to comment.

    The letter of invitation was shared with attorneys and an investigator working with Giuliani at the time, the text messages obtained by CNN show.

    On January 1, 2021 – days ahead of the January 7 voting systems breach – Katherine Friess – an attorney working with Giuliani, Sidney Powell and other Trump allies shared a “written invitation” to examine voting systems in Coffee County with a group of Trump allies.

    That group included members of Sullivan Strickler, a firm hired by Trump’s attorneys to examine voting systems in the small, heavily Republican Georgia county, according to text messages obtained by CNN.

    That same day, Friess sent a “Letter of invitation to Coffee County, Georgia” to former NYPD Police Commissioner Bernie Kerik, who was working with Giuliani to find evidence that would back up their baseless claims of potential widespread voter fraud, according to court documents filed as part of an ongoing civil case.

    Friess then notified operatives who carried out the Coffee County breach and others working directly with Giuliani that Trump’s team had secured written permission, the texts show.

    CNN has not reviewed the substance of the invitation letter itself, only communications that confirm it was provided to Friess, Kerik and Sullivan Strickler employees.

    Friess could not be reached for comment.

    The messages and documents appear to link Giuliani to the Coffee County breach, while shedding light on another channel of communication between pro-Trump attorneys and the battleground state operatives who worked together to provide unauthorized individuals access to sensitive voting equipment.

    “Rudy Giuliani had nothing to do with this,” said Robert Costello, Giuliani’s attorney. “You can’t attach Rudy Giuliani to Sidney Powell’s crackpot idea.”

    “Just landed back in DC with the Mayor huge things starting to come together!” an employee from the firm Sullivan Strickler, which was hired by Sidney Powell to examine voting systems in Coffee County, wrote in a group chat with other colleagues on January 1.

    Former New York Mayor Giuliani was consistently referred to as “the Mayor,” in other texts sent by the same individual and others at the time.

    “Most immediately, we were just granted access – by written invitation! – to Coffee County’s systems. Yay!” the text reads.

    Shortly after Election Day, Hampton – still serving as the top election official for Coffee County – warned during a state election board meeting that Dominion voting machines could “very easily” be manipulated to flip votes from one candidate to another. It’s a claim that has been repeatedly debunked.

    But the Trump campaign officials took notice and reached out to Hampton that same day. “I would like to obtain as much information as possible,” a Trump campaign staffer emailed Hampton at the time, according to documents released as part of a public records request and first reported by the Washington Post.

    In early December, Hampton then delayed certification of Joe Biden’s win in Georgia by refusing to validate the recount results by a key deadline. Coffee County was the only county in Georgia that failed to certify its election results due to issues raised by Hampton at the time.

    Hampton also posted a video online claiming to expose problems with the county’s Dominion voting system. That video was used by Trump’s lawyers, including Giuliani, as part of their push to convince legislators from multiple states that there was evidence the 2020 election results were tainted by voting system issues.

    Text messages and other documents obtained by CNN show Trump allies were seeking access to Coffee County’s voting system by mid-December amid increasing demands for proof of widespread election fraud.

    Coffee County was specifically cited in draft executive orders for seizing voting machines that were presented to Trump on December 18, 2020, during a chaotic Oval Office meeting, CNN has reported. During that same meeting, Giuliani alluded to a plan to gain “voluntary access” to machines in Georgia, according to testimony from him and others before the House January 6 committee.

    Days later, Hampton shared the written invitation to access the county’s election office with a Trump lawyer, text messages obtained by CNN show. She and another location elections official, Cathy Latham, allegedly helped Trump operatives gain access to the county’s voting systems, according to documents, testimony and surveillance video produced as part of a long-running civil lawsuit focused on election security in Georgia.

    Latham, who also served as a fake elector from Georgia after the 2020 election, has come under scrutiny for her role in the Coffee County breach after surveillance video showed she allowed unauthorized outsiders to spend hours examining voting systems there.

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    August 13, 2023
  • Crews work to identify many of the 93 victims found so far in Maui wildfires, now the deadliest US fire in over a century | CNN

    Crews work to identify many of the 93 victims found so far in Maui wildfires, now the deadliest US fire in over a century | CNN

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    CNN
     — 

    The death toll from the Maui wildfires climbed to at least 93 Saturday as authorities work to identify the victims and sift through the burned communities of western Maui.

    The fire is now the deadliest US wildfire in more than 100 years, according to research from the National Fire Protection Association.

    “This is the largest natural disaster we’ve ever experienced,” Hawaii Gov. Josh Green said at a Saturday night news conference. “It’s going to also be a natural disaster that’s going to take an incredible amount of time to recover from.”

    Whipped by winds from Hurricane Dora hundreds of miles offshore, fast-moving wildfires wiped out entire neighborhoods, burned historic landmarks to the ground and displaced thousands. As searches of the burned ruins continue, officials warn they do not know exactly how many people are still missing in the torched areas.

    Only about 3% of the fire zone has been searched with cadaver dogs, Maui Police Chief John Pelletier said, and authorities expect the already staggering death toll to rise.

    “None of us really know the size of it yet,” Pelletier said at Saturday night’s news conference.

    Only two of the people whose remains have been found have been identified, according to an update from Maui County.

    “We need to find your loved ones,” Pelletier said, urging those with missing family members to coordinate with authorities to do a DNA test.

    “The remains we’re finding is through a fire that melted metal.”

    Meanwhile, firefighters who continue to battle the flames – practically nonstop in some instances – have made some progress in containing the blazes. Of the three largest wildfires that crews have been combating, the deadly fire in hard-hit Lahaina has not grown, but is still not fully under control, Maui County Fire Chief Brad Ventura said.

    The Pulehu fire – located farther east in Kihei – was declared 100% contained Saturday, according to Maui County. A third inferno in the hills of Maui’s central Upcountry was 50% contained on Friday, officials said.

    As firefighting efforts continue, the state is surveying the immense destruction in once vibrant, beloved communities.

    Around 2,200 structures have been destroyed or damaged by the fires in West Maui, about 86% of them residential, Green said Saturday.

    While the Federal Emergency Management Agency earlier on Saturday said it was premature to assign even an approximate dollar amount to the damage done on Maui, the governor estimated that “the losses approach $6 billion.”

    “The devastation is so complete, that you see metals twisted in ways that you can’t imagine,” Green said. “And you see nothing from organic structures left whatsoever.”

    “We’ve gone through tsunamis, earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, but this event was much more catastrophic than any of those here,” Green said.

    Here’s the latest as of Saturday evening:

    • Police are restricting access into West Maui: The one highway into the hard-hit Lahaina area remains highly restricted. Residents slept in a mile-long line of cars overnight Saturday, hoping to enter.
    • Thousands displaced: The fires have displaced thousands of people, FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell told CNN on Thursday. A total of 1,418 people are at emergency evacuation shelters, according to Maui County officials.
    • Hotel rooms for evacuees: Around 1,000 hotel rooms were secured for evacuees and first responders, Green said, but it’s a challenge to get people into hotel rooms that have enough electricity. Long term housing solutions were also being sought.
    • Cellphone services coming back: While the fires initially knocked down communications and made it hard for residents to call 911 or update loved ones, county officials said Friday that cellphone services are becoming available. People are still advised to limit calls.
    • Maui’s warning sirens were not activated: State records show Maui’s warning sirens were not activated, and the emergency communications with residents was largely limited to mobile phones and broadcasters at a time when most power and cell service was already cut.
    • Disaster response under review: Hawaii Attorney General Anne Lopez will lead a comprehensive review of officials’ response to the catastrophic wildfires, her office said Friday. “My Department is committed to understanding the decisions that were made before and during the wildfires and to sharing with the public the results of this review,” Lopez said in a statement.

    More than a dozen federal agencies have been deployed to Hawaii to assist in the recovery efforts, including the National Guard, FEMA and the Department of Health and Human Services.

    Local sites and attractions meant for summer revelers are now being turned into relief beacons.

    Pacific Whale Foundation, which typically operates eco-tours across Maui, is instead using its ship to transport supplies like batteries, flashlights, water, food and diapers to people in need.

    And at the Lahaina Gateway and the Ritz-Carlton in Kapalua, food and water distribution sites have been set up, according to Green.

    Thousands of pounds of food have been donated and are on the way, the governor said Saturday.

    “We come at this like an ohana because it’s going to be, in the short term, heartbreaking. In the long term, people are going to need mental health care services. In the very long term, we’ll rebuild together,” Green said.

    The Hawaii Department of Transportation will set aside a runway at Kahului Airport – the primary airport on the island of Maui – to accommodate incoming relief supplies, officials announced Saturday.

    Volunteers unload supplies to be transported to people in need at Kahului Harbor in Maui, Hawaii, on Saturday.

    For those who’ve lost their homes, at least 1,000 rooms have been secured for them as well as support staff, the governor said.

    “Then coming after that, in the days that follow, we’ll have long term rentals. Those are the short term rentals turned long term now,” Green said.

    Meanwhile, tourism authorities are focused on helping visitors get out of Maui, alleviating the pressure on residents and traffic, so that “attention and resources” can be focused on the island’s recovery, Hawaii Tourism Authority spokesperson Ilihia Gionson said Saturday.

    Gionson, who is a native Hawaiian, said residents will draw strength from the deep history of Lahaina — a former capital of the Hawaiian Kingdom — and “the very powerful spirits of Maui.”

    “It’s really in the families and in the hearts of the Kama’aina, the residents of those places, that those kinds of stories, those kinds of histories live,” he told CNN. “So our hearts, our prayers, all of our Aloha is with those families who have lost loved ones, who have lost their homes, who have lost businesses, livelihoods, lifestyles — it’s just devastating.”

    In pictures: The deadly Maui wildfires

    Maui police have been restricting residents on-and-off from taking the Honoapi’ilani Highway – the main roadway into devastated Lahaina.

    Some residents slept in a mile-long line of cars overnight Saturday, hoping to enter by morning. But police told drivers that traffic is jammed on the main road and that conditions are too dangerous.

    Steven and Giulietta Daiker said they were nearly up to the main checkpoint after hours of waiting when they learned they were only going to be turned around. “They couldn’t have told us that three miles back, or couldn’t have been on a bullhorn or on the radio?” Steven asked.

    “It’s not just frustration. It feels sickening,” Giulietta added.

    Officials say they have to limit access as conditions remain hazardous where homes were leveled by the fires.

    “We’re not doing anybody any favors by letting them back in there quickly, just so they can go get sick,” Mayor Richard Bissen Jr. said at Saturday’s news conference.

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    August 13, 2023
  • Offseason substitute teacher pitches 7 shutout innings for MLB-best Atlanta Braves | CNN

    Offseason substitute teacher pitches 7 shutout innings for MLB-best Atlanta Braves | CNN

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    CNN
     — 

    Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Allan Winans tossed seven shutout innings in the team’s 21-3 win against the New York Mets on Saturday afternoon.

    The 28-year-old right-hander racked up nine strikeouts and picked up his first Major League Baseball win in just his second appearance in the big leagues.

    Winans has been supplementing his minor league salary in the offseason by working as a substitute teacher in his native Bakersfield, California, where he is known as “Mr. W” to his students, according to Braves broadcaster Bally Sports South.

    Winans was a 17th-round draft pick in the 2018 draft; ironically, he was originally selected by the New York Mets.

    “Anytime you get called to the big leagues, it’s pretty special and it’s pretty cool. But getting drafted by those guys, they definitely made me dream of Citi Field, so getting to come here and do it against those guys makes it a little more special,” Winans said after the game.

    “But my job today was to help the Braves win, and that’s what we did, so I was pretty happy with it.”

    “Getting your first ‘W’ in the big leagues is pretty cool no matter what team it is (against),” Winans added.

    Braves’ slugger Matt Olson cracked two home runs in the blowout win to take over the big league lead with 42 long balls this season and drove in 4 runs to pad his big-league-best RBI total of 105.

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    August 12, 2023
  • Inflation may be cooling — but drivers can’t seem to catch a break | CNN Business

    Inflation may be cooling — but drivers can’t seem to catch a break | CNN Business

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    New York
    CNN
     — 

    If you’re sitting in rush-hour traffic in Arlington, Virginia, there’s a good chance you’ll spot Hunter Scott in his helmet and elbow pads scooting right past you on an adjacent path.

    For the past year, Scott, a 38-year-old Navy pilot doing work for the government until his next deployment, has been commuting 12 miles from his home in Washington, DC, via motorized scooter. When it’s raining or snowing, he throws on his Navy-issued high-tech weather gear, if necessary.

    Even though the second-hand scooter he bought from Craigslist for $500 can only go up to 20 miles an hour, he said it’s saving him a lot of time compared to when he drove to work. Now he doesn’t have to walk a mile from the nearest parking lot to his office or wait for the Metro, which can often be unreliable, Scott said. And it means he can spend more time with his one-year-old daughter.

    It is also saving him a lot of money at a time when just about every car-related cost is more expensive.

    Scott said he got the idea to scoot to work last year when gas prices were near record highs and inflation rose to a 40-year record high. “The cost of living was just getting more expensive,” Scott told CNN. “We weren’t willing to make sacrifices on the quality of food that we buy.”

    Scott estimates he and his wife, who also commutes via scooter, are saving $4,500 this year from not driving to work. That’s according to calculations he made on an Excel spreadsheet that factors in savings from not having to repair their cars as much, the auto insurance reductions they get from driving less and the reduced fuel use.

    Even though gas prices have been rising lately, they’re still significantly lower than a year ago. But other costs associated with car ownership are continuing to skyrocket. In fact, if Scott and his wife switched back to driving today they’d likely find that they’re saving well above the $4,500 he calculated.

    It will cost you 19.5% more to repair your car now than it did a year ago, according to July’s Consumer Price Index report, released Thursday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Another hefty expense is car insurance, up 17.8% from a year ago. Car repairs and car insurance were the second- and third-largest annual price increases, respectively, tracked by the CPI.

    On top of that, car maintenance and servicing, body work, tires, parts and equipment and even state registration and licensing fees are all costing drivers more.

    Pam Franks, a retired Louisiana state Medicaid analyst, balked when she got a notice from State Farm informing her that her six-month policy for her 2017 Toyota Camry would increase by 41% to $408 this August.

    “It’s aggravating when I haven’t had any wrecks or tickets,” Franks, who lives in Pineville, Louisiana, told CNN.

    Pam Franks, a resident of Pineville, Louisiana, said her car insurance policy rate increased by 41%, despite the fact that she has not had any recent collisions or tickets.

    She said she tried shopping around for better rates, but couldn’t find anything cheaper since she bundles her auto insurance with her home insurance. Switching to another auto insurance policy would have pushed up the cost of her home insurance, she said.

    She’s one of many Louisiana drivers seeing their rates increase after the state’s Department of Insurance signed off on State Farm’s 17% average rate hike across all policies earlier this month.

    “Inflationary pressures and supply chain issues, along with higher claim costs continue to drive our rate changes in Louisiana and beyond,” Roszell Gadson, a State Farm spokesperson, told CNN. “We continue to adjust to these trends to make sure we are matching price to risk.”

    One of the reasons car repair costs are up is that Americans aren’t replacing their older vehicles, said Kristin Brocoff, a spokeswoman spokesperson for CarMD, a vehicle diagnostics provider.

    The average age of cars in use in the United States hit an all-time high of 12.5 years last year, according to an analysis from S&P Global Mobility of 284 million cars.

    That’s partly because car production still hasn’t caught up with pent-up demand from the pandemic, resulting in more expensive new cars.

    But trying to extend your car’s life span can add up.

    Model year 2007 cars were the most likely to need a repair related to the “check engine light” message in the past year, according to CarMD’s April Vehicle Health Index report that analyzed 17.7 million check-engine light readings from model year 1996 to 2022 vehicles driven last year. Some of the most common check-engine light repair issues include replacing catalytic converters, oxygen sensors and ignition coil and spark plugs, according to CarMD’s report.

    The average car repair cost $403.71 last year, a 2.8% uptick from 2021 and a record high since CarMD began reporting on this in 2009. CarMD estimates average repair costs using annual industry data on the cost of car parts, labor rates and the average amount of time required to complete a repair.

    On the labor side, rates were down by 0.5% from last year. Car parts were up 5% from a year ago, which pushed up overall repair costs.

    Paul Baxter, a mechanic who owns Bullet Proof Off-Road & Auto, a car repair shop in Mesa, Arizona, said he’s paying 30% more for car parts compared to before the pandemic. That’s a result of persistent supply chain issues and higher shipping costs, he said.

    He said he has no bargaining power and has to accept the price manufacturers are charging for parts. To keep the lights on, he marks up car parts he sells to customers by 20% to 30%, he told CNN.

    Baxter hasn’t had an issue finding and retaining qualified mechanics. Still, he raised his three workers’ wages by $5 an hour to $25 an hour over the past few years to keep up with the higher cost of living.

    Paul Baxter, who opened his auto shop in 2016, has had to raise prices due to the rising cost of car parts.

    Baxter said the industry publications he subscribes to that are critical for him to learn how to repair the newest car models raised their prices. Even the company from which he purchases water coolers so customers can have a drink in the waiting room now charges more.

    That’s why he recently charged $2,300 to replace a customer’s air conditioning. A few years ago he said he would have charged $1,500 for the same exact job.

    Customers constantly tell him he’s charging too much, said Baxter, who’s been repairing cars professionally since 2008 before opening his shop in 2016. “People don’t understand the back end of running an auto shop and the expenses I take on to keep it open,” he told CNN.

    When he explains how he arrives at an estimate, customers are more sympathetic, he said.

    Ted Canty, a 67-year-old retired FedEx operations manager living in Wimauma, Florida, said he is at his wits end with car repairs. A year ago, he paid $1,950 to replace the water pump in his 2017 Volkswagen Golf. That’s around what his monthly Social Security check is, he said.

    That meant Canty and his wife, who is also retired, had to cut back on dining out and seeing movies so they could save more money for future car repairs.

    Ted Canty, a retired resident of Wimauma, Florida, tries to avoid driving after paying almost $2,000 for a car repair and seeing his car insurance rates increase.

    When his anti-lock braking system recently went out, though, he knew he couldn’t push it off for too long. In the past, he’s almost always gone to Volkswagen service centers for repairs because he says he doesn’t feel comfortable getting it done at shops that aren’t as familiar with his car. But the Volkswagen service center wanted to charge him $525 to repair it, he said, leading him to shop around for better rates at other places. In the end, he paid a quarter of what Volkswagen was charging.

    Canty is worried about the next car repair he’ll inevitably need, especially because he and his wife have limited sources of income outside of their Social Security checks and his pension.

    “We could be driving more because we’re retired and want to go places. But we cut it back to keep the miles off the car,” he told CNN.

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    August 12, 2023
  • US wholesale inflation rose more than expected in July | CNN Business

    US wholesale inflation rose more than expected in July | CNN Business

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    Minneapolis
    CNN
     — 

    US wholesale inflation rose more than expected in July, reversing a yearlong cooling trend, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.

    The Producer Price Index, which tracks the average change in prices that businesses pay to suppliers, rose 0.8% annually. That’s above June’s upwardly revised increase of 0.2% and higher than expectations for a 0.7% gain, according to consensus estimates on Refinitiv.

    Producer price hikes increased 0.3% from June to July, the highest monthly increase since January.

    PPI is a closely watched inflation gauge since it captures average price shifts before they reach consumers, and is a proxy for potential price changes in stores.

    Services and demand for services were the primary culprits behind the lift higher for producer prices, said Kurt Rankin, senior economist for PNC Financial Services. Services prices rose 0.5% from June, the highest monthly increase since March 2022 for the category, BLS data shows.

    “The inflation story now, be it for producers or consumers, is demand,” he told CNN. “Mainly that’s consumers still spending money on services.”

    The food index, which had declined for three straight months, rose 0.5% in July, suggesting a 6.3% annualized pace of inflation, he said.

    “Consumers continue to go out and spend money,” Rankin said. “And as long as consumers are spending money, that’s going to create demand from producers, so that’s going to drive up their costs for their raw materials, for their transportation needs, etc.”

    “And they’re going to pass those prices on to consumers,” he added.

    That’s an unpleasant cycle.

    “The numbers over the past six months have been much more encouraging, but it’s a reminder that the Federal Reserve has an eye toward the possibility of inflation flaring up again,” he said.

    The report comes just one day after the Consumer Price Index showed that prices rose 3.2% annually in July. That increase, which was below the 3.3% economists were anticipating, was largely driven by year-over-year comparisons to a softer inflation number the year before.

    Similar base effects played their role in the headline PPI increase as well, noted Rankin.

    The tick upward to 0.8% doesn’t tell the whole story, because the index decreased in five of the previous seven months. Annualizing the 0.3% monthly gain, however, would put the PPI rate at about 3.6% and core at 3.8%, he said.

    “So the July number does suggest that there’s still some producer cost pressures,” he said.

    When stripping out the more volatile categories of food and energy, core PPI rose 2.4% annually in July. That’s in line with what was seen in June but a tick above economists’ expectations for a slight cooling.

    On a month-to-month basis, core PPI increased 0.3%, also the highest monthly gain since January.

    “The underlying trends show that PPI inflation is reverting to its pre-pandemic run rate, though progress is likely to be slower in [the second half of 2023] than [the first half],” Oxford Economics economists Matthew Martin and Oren Klachkin wrote Friday in a note. “While these data will comfort Fed officials, policymakers will likely maintain a hawkish tone and keep a close eye on whether last month’s jump in services prices persists in the months ahead.”

    US stock futures tumbled after the report was released, as the hotter-than-expected data fueled concerns that the Fed could continue to hike rates in order to rein in inflation. The Dow has since pared its losses and is back in the green.

    One month does not make a trend, and this result alone should not trigger a September increase from the Fed, but it certainly could heighten concerns, Rankin said.

    “One spark could reignite this,” he said. “We’re seeing energy prices, oil prices, rising over the past few weeks. Any flareup in oil prices goes straight through to not only manufacturing costs, but transportation of goods to market, even transportation of food to restaurants. So even services, leisure and hospitality get hit when energy prices spike, so that possibility is always there.”

    The PPI’s energy index, which increased 0.7% in June, showed that prices were flat for July.

    “So the fact that energy prices were not a contributor tho this month’s reading makes this number jumping a bit a stark reminder that the Federal Reserve’s fight against inflation and their rhetoric regarding that fight is going to remain hawkish in the near term.”

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    August 11, 2023
  • Chinese property giant Country Garden flags loss of up to $7.6 billion as it nears default | CNN Business

    Chinese property giant Country Garden flags loss of up to $7.6 billion as it nears default | CNN Business

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    Hong Kong
    CNN
     — 

    One of China’s biggest property developers says it has burned through up to $7.6 billion in the first half of the year, compounding the crisis coursing through the country’s embattled real estate sector.

    Country Garden warned investors in a Hong Kong stock exchange filing Thursday that it would likely record a loss of 45 billion to 55 billion Chinese yuan (about $6.2 billion to $7.6 billion) for the six months through June.

    That compares with a profit of approximately 1.9 billion yuan ($264.3 million) for the same time last year.

    The disclosure lays bare the financial woes currently facing Country Garden, a massive builder of hundreds of thousands of homes annually across China.

    The developer, which employs some 300,000 people, has a massive debt pile that’s being compared to that of Evergrande, the world’s most indebted property group.

    In recent weeks, the company has become the latest sign of China’s economic troubles, as it teeters on the brink of default and, by its own admission, works to save itself.

    Country Garden shares plunged 8.7% in Hong Kong Friday following its loss warning, as well as a report from Chinese news outlet Yicai that the firm was preparing for a debt restructuring, citing unidentified sources.

    CNN has not independently confirmed Yicai’s reporting.

    The company had said in its filing that it would “consider adopting various debt management measures,” without elaborating further, as well as lean on a task force newly set up to “cope with” its challenges. Country Garden did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

    As of early afternoon in Hong Kong Friday, its stock had reached a record low of 95 Hong Kong cents, below its previous low of 98 Hong Kong cents reached in October 2008.

    Earlier this week, Country Garden stoked concerns by missing two bond payments, according to analysts. The company did not respond to multiple requests for comment from CNN on the matter.

    Its failure to pay up raised concerns about its overall liabilities, which racked up to a whopping 1.4 trillion yuan (about $194 billion) as of the end of last year.

    Some of the company’s debt — roughly $4.3 billion in onshore and offshore bonds — will come due or “become puttable” through the end of 2024, meaning the company will face obligations to bondholders, according to Moody’s.

    For the rest of this year alone, “we estimate that CGH needs to fulfill at least $137 million of bond interest payments through the rest of 2023,” Morningstar analyst Jeff Zhang wrote in a report Thursday.

    News of the missed payments led to the company being downgraded, with Moody’s bumping down its credit rating from B1 to Caa1 on Thursday.

    The downgrade reflects Country Garden’s cash flow problems, “in view of its deteriorated liquidity and financial flexibility, sizable refinancing needs and still-constrained access to funding,” Kaven Tsang, a Moody’s senior vice president, said in a report.

    “The negative outlook reflects the uncertainty over Country Garden’s ability to service its debt obligations, including coupon payments, in a timely manner over the next [six to] 12 months,” he added.

    Zhang also said Morningstar believed the missed payments “may not be an isolated event.”

    “Country Garden is likely to default,” he wrote in his report.

    The company is working to stem the bleeding.

    In its filing Thursday, it attributed the expected first-half loss to a series of problems, from falling property sales to lower profit margins.

    New home sales by China’s 100 biggest developers dropped by 33% in July from a year ago, according to data released last week.

    “Facing such an extremely difficult situation industry-wide, the company [has] worked together to carry out self-rescue by all means,” Country Garden told investors.

    But “the overall market has not yet recovered, the absolute scale of the industry has declined, and the capital market needs time to restore its confidence.”

    The company also detailed how its chairwoman, who is also its controlling shareholder, had personally tried to contain the crisis.

    Since the company’s listing in 2007, Yang Huiyan and her family have pumped in approximately 38.6 billion Hong Kong dollars ($4.9 billion), in the form of new loans and share and bond purchases, the firm said in its filing.

    Some of that debt — about 6.6 billion Hong Kong dollars ($844 million) is unsecured, it added.

    But Yang alone won’t be able to turn things around. In its report, Moody’s cited “the absence of new external financing” as one reason it now considers the firm’s liquidity “weak,” compared to its previous classification of “adequate.”

    The assessment was reached despite Yang’s willingness to provide “funding support to the company,” the agency added.

    One of China’s wealthiest women, Yang has seen her own fortune plunge recently, dropping 84% since June 2021, or $28.6 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires index.

    That’s the biggest wealth drop of any billionaire in the world over the past two years, according to its calculations.

    The impact of Country Garden’s problems won’t be felt in China alone, according to Alfredo Montufar-Helu, head of the China center for economics and business.

    “The global economy is losing one of its engines of growth,” he told CNN.

    “That’s why everyone should care about what is happening to real estate. Real estate is the main drag right now on confidence levels, on demand, and on industrial productivity.”

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    August 11, 2023
  • These factors are making it hard to combat the deadly Maui wildfires | CNN

    These factors are making it hard to combat the deadly Maui wildfires | CNN

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    CNN
     — 

    The wind-whipped fires in Maui spread swiftly and created a deadly tinderbox, overwhelming residents and local officials in one of the nation’s deadliest wildfires.

    “It’s very strange to hear about severe wildfires in Hawaii – a wet, tropical island – but strange events are becoming more common with climate change,” Jennifer Marlon, a research scientist and lecturer at the Yale School of the Environment, told CNN.

    Fueled by a combination of strong winds and dry conditions – and complicated by the island’s geography – the fires have killed at least 36 people.

    “For those of us who’ve been working on this problem, it just makes us feel sick,” said Clay Trauernicht, an assistant specialist who studies tropical fire at the University of Hawaii at Manoa.

    Maui’s wildfire appears to be one of the deadliest in modern US history. The fire already ranks as the second deadliest in the past 100 years, trailing California’s Camp fire, which killed 85 people in November 2018, according to CalFire.

    Trauernicht said it was by far the deadliest wildfire in Hawaii’s history.

    These are some factors making it difficult to combat the fires that have plunged a state known for its stunning natural beauty into an unprecedented crisis:

    Drought worsened in Hawaii over the past week, leading to fire spread, according to the US Drought Monitor released Thursday. Severe level drought conditions in Maui County ticked up to 16% from 5% last week, while statewide moderate drought levels jumped to 14% from 6%.

    Dried-out land and vegetation can provide fuel for wildfires, which then can swiftly turn deadly if strong winds help fan the flames toward communities.

    “It’s more a fuels problem than a climate problem – which means that it’s a problem we can tackle,” Trauernicht said in a phone interview.

    “There are tangible actions that we could be taking that would reduce the risk of something like this happening in the future,” he added, referring to measures such as the creation of fuelbreaks to reduce fire-prone vegetation and support for agricultural land use.

    “It’s a priority when the fires are burning. But at that point, it’s too late.”

    While scientists try to fully understand how the climate crisis will affect Hawaii, they have said drought will get worse as global temperatures rise: Warmer temperatures increase the amount of water the atmosphere can absorb – which then dries out the landscape.

    Drought conditions are becoming more extreme and common in Hawaii and other Pacific Islands, according to the Fourth US National Climate Assessment, released in 2018. Rainfall has generally been decreasing in Hawaii over time, with the number of consecutive dry days increasing, scientists noted in the report.

    And the climate crisis has caused droughts that previously may have occurred only once every decade to now happen 70% more frequently, global scientists reported in 2021.

    “Combining abundant fuels with heat, drought, and strong wind gusts is a perfect recipe for out-of-control fires,” Marlon said by email.

    “But this is what climate change is doing – it’s super-charging extreme weather. This is yet another example of what human-caused climate change increasingly looks like.”

    Evacuation orders in parts of Hawaii as wildfires grow

    Hurricane Dora, a fast-moving and powerful Category 4 hurricane with sustained winds of 140 mph, isn’t helping matters.

    As the storm roared south of Hawaii, a strong high-pressure system stayed in place to the north, with the two forces combining to produce “very strong and damaging winds,” according to the National Weather Service.

    “These strong winds coupled with low humidity levels are producing dangerous fire weather conditions” through Wednesday afternoon, the weather service said.

    The high winds, ongoing drought conditions and dry relative humidity are “ingredients to spark those fires and to fan the flames,” CNN meteorologist Derek Van Dam said.

    “The problem is that this wind – similar to, let’s say, Santa Ana winds in Southern California – is that it dries out and it warms up as it (travels down) the mountains, and it creates these very dry, timber-like conditions,” he said.

    Hurricane Lane in 2018 was also associated with large fires on Maui and Oahu, noted Abby Frazier, a climatologist and geographer at Clark University in Massachusetts.

    “Wildfire is a bigger issue in Hawaii than many people may realize,” Frazier said via email from Hawaii, where she has been working on a research project in Oahu.

    “During the wet season, fuels are built up and then dry out over the dry season,” she added. “When you combine these dry fuels with the high winds and low humidity we have right now from Hurricane Dora, we have extremely dangerous fire weather.”

    Another compounding factor is El Niño, Frazier said. The climate pattern originates in the Pacific Ocean along the equator and impacts weather all over the world.

    “This means higher than usual hurricane activity in the central Pacific this summer,” she wrote.

    “While we tend to see wetter conditions during El Nino summers (which builds up fire fuels), Hawaii should expect drought conditions likely this winter, which will dry out the fuels and usually leads to an earlier start to our fire season for next year.”

    van dam hawaii vpx

    A hurricane is fueling wildfires in Hawaii. Meteorologist explains how

    Nonnative species now cover nearly a quarter of Hawaii’s total land area, and invasive grasses and shrubs become highly flammable in the dry season, Trauernicht said.

    Hawaii also has lost large plantations and ranches, with fire-prone grasses overtaking fallow lands, he said.

    “When plantations were active, firefighters would show up on scene … people would be there opening the gates, all the roads were maintained, there was water infrastructure and equipment. And they would have support from the people working on these plantations,” Trauernicht said.

    “As that has changed, and land use has changed. It’s all on the firefighters right now.”

    Hawaii also has suffered from dramatic shifts in rainfall patterns.

    The area burned each year in Hawaii is now about 1% of the state’s total land area – comparable to and often exceeding the 12 Western states on the mainland where fires are most common, according to Trauernicht and the Pacific Fire Exchange.

    The geography of Hawaii – an island chain in the Pacific – and limited firefighting resources also complicate efforts.

    Personnel at the state Division of Forestry and Wildlife are primarily natural resource managers, foresters, biologists and technicians – not full-time wildland firefighters, according to the agency website.

    “West Maui is kind of a perfect example – one highway through the whole place,” Trauernicht told CNN. “Our resources are limited to what’s on island. The resources … are going to be spread thin.”

    Fewer than 300 firefighting personnel responded to the state’s second-largest fire, on the Big Island in 2021, Trauernicht said.

    “If you compare that to the mainland, there would have been probably a couple of thousand firefighters,” he said.

    “That gives you a sense of the kind of … limitations that we have here. This fire right now, I guarantee it, anyone who’s available to respond is responding. We don’t really have the ability to definitely bring in resources from other states. That’s not happening.”

    By Thursday, meanwhile, the wildfires had killed at least 36 people on the island, compared to six deaths reported just a day earlier.

    “I think this is going to be far worse than anything we’ve ever seen, unfortunately,” Trauernicht said.

    Despite warnings it seems many were taken by surprise.

    “The National Weather Service issued a kind of heads up. We had a few days lead time about the weather conditions,” Trauernicht said.

    “We anticipated the high winds and dry conditions. But managing fuels at the scale in which we need to, those are actions that need to be taken at minimum months in advance of these fires and these conditions.”

    Longer-term planning and prevention efforts are needed to fight the growth of invasive grasses and shrubs, Trauernicht said.

    “This is something that we’ve been saying for decades,” he said. “We can create landscapes that are far less likely to burn, far less sensitive to these fluctuations in climate or in weather that create such dangerous conditions.

    “We sort of owe it to these guys that are fighting this thing right now.”

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    August 10, 2023
  • Mortgage rates rise to just short of 7% | CNN Business

    Mortgage rates rise to just short of 7% | CNN Business

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    Washington, DC
    CNN
     — 

    US mortgage rates remained elevated this week, rising for the third week in a row, but stayed just under the market’s 7% threshold.

    The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.96% in the week ending August 10, up from 6.90% the week before, according to data from Freddie Mac released Thursday. A year ago, the 30-year fixed-rate was 5.22%.

    “There is no doubt continued high rates will prolong affordability challenges longer than expected,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “However, upward pressure on rates is the product of a resilient economy with low unemployment and strong wage growth, which historically has kept purchase demand solid.”

    The average mortgage rate is based on mortgage applications that Freddie Mac receives from thousands of lenders across the country. The survey includes only borrowers who put 20% down and have excellent credit.

    The rate stayed elevated this week after the Federal Reserve highlighted its reliance on data on jobs and inflation in its July monetary policy meeting and in recent comments.

    Markets had been waiting for July’s inflation report, released Thursday morning, which showed consumer price hikes rose 3.2% annually, the first increase in 12 months. The data also showed that shelter costs contributed 90% of total inflation last month.

    “July’s Consumer Price Index holds significant importance for the Fed’s upcoming decisions,” said Jiayi Xu, an economist at Realtor.com.

    Since inflation rose, it could support the Fed’s concern that the battle is not over, Xu said. The Fed also will consider the forthcoming August employment and inflation data prior to the next policy meeting, in September.

    In addition, the most recent jobs report offered some mixed signals about the labor market, Xu said, including a smaller number of net new jobs added and a dipping unemployment rate.

    “While July’s jobs report itself is very unlikely to have a direct impact on the Fed’s upcoming decision, the decline to a 3.5% unemployment rate may imply that more significant slowing is needed to align with the Fed’s projected year-end rate of 4.1%,” she said.

    This story is developing and will be updated.

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    August 10, 2023
  • Georgia is now the only state with work requirements in Medicaid | CNN Politics

    Georgia is now the only state with work requirements in Medicaid | CNN Politics

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    CNN
     — 

    Georgia is now the only state in the US to implement work requirements in its Medicaid program – a feat many Republican lawmakers nationwide will be closely monitoring.

    But unlike GOP-led states’ prior attempts to impose work mandates in Medicaid, Georgia’s effort is expected to increase the number of people with health insurance, rather than strip coverage away from an untold number of low-income residents. That allowed it to pass muster in court, though critics still deride the program as complicated, ineffective and expensive.

    Pathways to Coverage, which began July 1, comes as House Republicans in Congress are pushing to expand work requirements in the nation’s safety net programs, particularly Medicaid and food stamps.

    There is no federal work mandate in Medicaid, but 13 states received permission during the Trump administration to require existing enrollees to work, volunteer or meet other criteria to retain their health insurance. In Arkansas, the only state that implemented work requirements and terminated coverage, more than 18,000 people were disenrolled in 2018 before its waiver was voided by a federal court.

    States paused their initiatives because of litigation or the Covid-19 pandemic, and then the Biden administration withdrew the waiver approvals. But Georgia challenged the withdrawal, and a federal judge ruled in the state’s favor in August 2022, allowing it to implement Pathways to Coverage.

    Georgia has among the nation’s strictest eligibility requirements for Medicaid. It is one of 10 states that has not expanded the program to all low-income adults under the Affordable Care Act. Parents only qualify if they make less than 31% of the federal poverty level for a family of three – or about $7,700 this year, according to KFF, a health policy research organization.

    Under Pathways to Coverage, adults making up to 100% of the federal poverty level – about $14,600 for an individual – can enroll if they work, participate in job training or community service, take higher education classes or meet other criteria for at least 80 hours a month.

    “In our state, we want more people to be covered at a lower cost with more options for patients,” Gov. Brian Kemp said in his State of the State address in January.

    Just how many people are expected to gain coverage varies. In his speech, Kemp said up to 345,000 Georgians are potentially eligible for the program, while the state Department of Community Health said the state has budgeted for an estimated enrollment of 100,000 residents in the first year.

    Interest in the program is continuing to grow, said the department, which is working with insurers, community groups and others to get the word out.

    Others, however, estimate far fewer people will gain coverage. The state funds allotted for the program in the current fiscal year will allow about 47,500 to enroll, according to the Georgia Budget and Policy Institute, a left-leaning advocacy group.

    Fully expanding Medicaid would cover far more people and at a lower cost to the state, said Leah Chan, the institute’s director of health justice. Some 482,000 Georgians earning up to 138% of the federal poverty level – or about $20,100 for an individual – could gain coverage.

    Also, the federal government covers a larger share of the costs of the full expansion enrollees and would temporarily provide a boost in federal funding for existing traditional Medicaid participants under a provision of the American Rescue Plan Act aimed at enticing holdout states to expand.

    If Georgia fully expanded Medicaid, each newly eligible enrollee would cost the state about $496, Chan said. But under Pathways to Coverage, each will cost $2,490 because the program does not qualify for the enhanced federal match.

    “It doesn’t make sense for us to implement a program that’s going to cover fewer people at a higher cost when we have an option that could close the coverage gap and draw down millions and millions – some estimates say billions – in federal dollars,” Chan said.

    Plus, it could be tough for low-income residents, particularly those in rural areas of the state where many of the uninsured live, to work enough hours consistently to qualify, she said. And those who do may get tripped up in submitting the necessary monthly documentation.

    Another issue: There are no exemptions for parents of dependent children or other caregivers, said Joan Alker, executive director of the Center for Children and Families at Georgetown University. Other states that sought to implement work requirements during the Trump administration had such exemptions.

    “A small number of people may get coverage, but the likelihood of them retaining that coverage for a while is not very high,” Alker said. “And this is an especially problematic structure for parents.”

    Georgia officials, however, say Pathways to Coverage is the right program for the state.

    “This approach is Georgia-centric and ensures we can expand Medicaid coverage to those who were previously ineligible without forcing others off their preferred private insurance,” the state Department of Community Health said in a statement to CNN. “Unlike the top-down approach of traditional Medicaid expansion, Georgia Pathways was developed by Georgians and is run by Georgians to address our state’s specific needs.”

    This story has been updated with additional information.

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    August 9, 2023
  • 41 dead in new Mediterranean migrant shipwreck tragedy | CNN

    41 dead in new Mediterranean migrant shipwreck tragedy | CNN

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    Rome
    CNN
     — 

    Forty-one people reportedly died in a migrant shipwreck near the Italian island of Lampedusa, survivors say, the latest tragedy amid a spike in efforts in people making the dangerous sea crossing from North Africa to Europe.

    The survivors told the Red Cross that the migrant boat left Sfax, Tunisia several days ago. They said they were wearing life jackets and were able to crawl on a remnants of a different shipwrecked boat, according to the Red Cross.

    The Italian Coast Guard confirmed with CNN that it transported the survivors to Lampedusa after they were rescued by a private vessel. It is unclear how many people in total were on board.

    As of Tuesday, 93,754 people have arrived in Italy by boat this year, a sharp increase from 2022, according to the Italian government.

    Lampedusa, not far from Sicily and the closest Italian island to Africa, is a major destination for migrants seeking to enter European Union countries.

    It has facilities to host fewer than 500 people but is currently over capacity at 1,577, with 1,100 due to be transferred to Sicily on Wednesday, according to the Red Cross.

    This incident marks the latest in a string of tragedies occurring off Lampedusa.

    On Sunday, three bodies were recovered, including a 3-year-old child and a pregnant woman, and at least 30 people were missing after two migrant boats sank off the Italian island, the Italian Coast Guard said in a statement.

    Earlier this year Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni blamed the rising number of migrants on the “political situation” in Tunisia.

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    August 9, 2023
  • PayPal bets on crypto’s future with US-dollar-backed stablecoin | CNN Business

    PayPal bets on crypto’s future with US-dollar-backed stablecoin | CNN Business

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    New York
    CNN
     — 

    PayPal is rolling out its first stablecoin as it attempts to capitalize on the “emerging potential” of US dollar-backed digital tokens for consumer payments.

    The stablecoin, PayPal USD, is fully backed by the US dollar and is “designed to reduce friction” for payments within virtual spaces and provide faster, cheaper transfers of money across borders.

    For now, the use case for the new token appears limited to crypto-related and other “web3” applications. But PayPal is betting on a future in which digital currency is more mainstream and merchants may request payment in stablecoins to avoid credit card processing fees. Similarly, crypto holders can send money instantly across borders without incurring remittance fees charged by banks.

    “The shift toward digital currencies requires a stable instrument that is both digitally native and easily connected to fiat currency like the US dollar,” said PayPal CEO Dan Schulman.

    Stablecoins, as their name implies, are designed to hold their value steady, making them a vital tool for traders of cryptocurrencies, which are notoriously volatile. Most stablecoins are tightly pegged to a traditional fiat currency, such as the US dollar, or to a commodity like gold. Stablecoins also act as a sort of on-ramp, allowing investors to more easily cash out their crypto holdings for money that can be used in real life.

    Their purported stability has made stablecoins such as Tether a pillar in the infrastructure of the $1 trillion digital asset market.

    PayPal

    (PYPL)
    said its stablecoin will be “compatible with that ecosystem from day one. It will be available “soon” on Venmo, the popular payments app owned by PayPal

    (PYPL)
    .

    Stablecoins aren’t always as stable as they purport to be. In May 2022, the “algorithmic” stablecoin TerraUSD collapsed when the crypto token backing it, Luna, collapsed. That triggered a broader panic in the space, wiping about $40 billion from the crypto market. The Securities and Exchange Commission later charged its creator, Do Kwon, with misleading investors about the coin’s stability.

    The value of PayPal USD, or PYUSD, doesn’t rely on a complex algorithm the way Terra did. It is issued by Paxos Trust, a blockchain infrastructure firm, and is fully backed by US dollar deposits, Treasuries and similar cash equivalents, according to the companies.

    In other words: every PayPal USD should be worth $1.00, no matter what.

    With the launch of PYUSD, Paxos and PayPal are “proving the real-world value of blockchain technology,” Paxos CEO Charles Cascarilla said, calling the new token “the most significant leap forward for digital assets and the financial industry.”

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    August 7, 2023
  • Why China has few good options to boost its faltering economy | CNN Business

    Why China has few good options to boost its faltering economy | CNN Business

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    Hong Kong
    CNN
     — 

    Every few days for the past several weeks, a parade of Chinese leaders and policymakers have publicly vowed to do more to boost the sputtering economy, usually by promising to support the beleaguered private sector.

    Sometimes investors appear to have gained confidence from these pledges, sending shares higher.

    More often though, they’ve ignored the flurry of official messaging, hoping for more tangible stimulus measures that economists and analysts tell CNN are now unlikely to come because China has become too indebted to just pump up the economy like it did 15 years ago, during the global financial crisis.

    “We have had plenty of vague promises already, which don’t amount to a great deal so far,” said Robert Carnell, regional head of research for Asia-Pacific at ING Group.

    Except for some incremental steps to help the property market, currently mired in its worst slump in history, and tweaks to interest rates, there have been few signs of the government providing real money to struggling consumers or businesses.

    “Chinese policymakers appear unlikely to enact any major monetary or fiscal stimulus, likely fearing doing so could exacerbate China’s growing debt risks,” said Craig Singleton, senior China fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington-based non-partisan think tank.

    “At most, we can expect meager, mostly-supply side measures ostensibly aimed at, among other things, attracting more private capital and boosting electric vehicle ownership,” he added.

    After a strong start to the year after Covid restrictions were lifted, the world’s second largest economy has lost momentum.

    Since April, a slew of disappointing economic data and population statistics has sparked concern that China may be facing a period of much slower growth and possibly even heading for a future comparable to Japan’s.

    China’s economy barely grew in the April to June months compared with the previous quarter, as an initial burst in economic activity following the end of pandemic restrictions faded. Signs of deflation are becoming more prevalent, sparking concerns that China could enter a prolonged period of stagnation.

    Based on Japan’s experience in the 1990s, there is the risk that China is entering “a liquidity trap,” a scenario in which monetary policy becomes largely ineffective and consumers hold on to their cash rather than spend it, said Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief economist for Asia Pacific for Natixis, a French investment bank.

    “In other words, there is a risk that Chinese corporates and households, pushed by their very negative sentiment about the economic outlook, prefer to disinvest and de-leverage in the light of falling revenue generation.”

    To get the economy back on track, Beijing needs to match its words with action, according to analysts.

    China “conspicuously” refrained from the giant Covid-era support seen in developed economies, according to analysts at the UBS Global Wealth Management. Fiscal stimulus, for instance, amounted to just a third of the aid offered in the United States, with no nationwide cash handouts.

    While this helped China avoid the rampant inflation shock seen elsewhere, disposable household income fell as wages and property asset values simultaneously stalled, they said in a recent research note.

    Interest rate cuts are not enough, unless they are accompanied by fiscal measures to boost demand.

    “A comprehensive policy mix — covering monetary and fiscal stimulus, including infrastructure, property, and consumption, alongside structural reforms,” would be helpful to rebuild confidence, they said.

    China’s economic trajectory is of great concern for global investors and policymakers who are counting on it to drive global expansion. But, Beijing appears to have run out of ammunition.

    Back in 2008, Chinese leaders rolled out a four trillion yuan ($586 billion) fiscal package to minimize the impact of the global financial crisis. It was seen as a success and helped boost Beijing’s domestic and international political standing as well as China’s economic growth, which soared to more than 9% in the second half of 2009.

    But the measures, which were focused on government-led infrastructure projects, also led to an unprecedented credit expansion and massive increase in local government debt, from which the economy is still struggling to recover. In 2012, Beijing said it wouldn’t be doing it again. The costs were just too high.

    China’s debt woes have only deepened during the Covid-19 pandemic, when three years of draconian restrictions and a real estate downturn drained the coffers of local government.

    Analysts estimate China’s outstanding government debts surpassed 123 trillion yuan ($18 trillion) last year. Nearly $10 trillion of that figure is so-called “hidden debt” owed by risky local government financing platforms.

    In June, Zhu Min, a former senior official at the International Monetary Fund who previously served at China’s central bank, was quoted by Bloomberg as telling the Summer Davos forum in Tianjin that he didn’t believe China would unveil massive stimulus, as the nation was already struggling with high debt levels.

    “No [fiscal stimulus] has been announced, which seems to indicate that Chinese policymakers are still wary about a too rapid increase in public debt,” said Garcia-Herrero.

    And even if Beijing were to take action, it would be less effective than in 2008, Garcia-Herrero said.

    “An infrastructure-led fiscal stimulus would need to be much bigger to have the same economic impact,” she said.

    It also implies that, if action is taken, public debt in China would jump well above the current 100% of GDP, which would place the economy “among the most indebted in the world,” she added.

    What’s worse, under President Xi Jinping, Beijing appears to have doubled down on its strategy to strengthen the party’s control over the economy, analysts said.

    A “correct response” to the economic slump would be for Beijing to return to a pro-market reform path and let the private sector play a bigger role, according to Derek Scissors, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.

    But signs are “limited” that the government is considering that direction, he said.

    According to Singleton, “China’s new economic leadership team has few tools to meaningfully revive growth.”

    “Beijing’s steadfast, albeit unsurprising, refusal to acknowledge the role Xi’s economic mismanagement has played” in exacerbating China’s problems will gravely compound its broader systemic risks, he said.

    The property sector will likely be a drag on growth for years to come, Singleton said, adding that the country’s alarming debt levels and timid consumers domestically and abroad won’t help either.

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    August 6, 2023
  • The anti-abortion movement is fractured over what it wants from its first post-Roe GOP presidential nominee | CNN Politics

    The anti-abortion movement is fractured over what it wants from its first post-Roe GOP presidential nominee | CNN Politics

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    CNN
     — 

    Bernie Hayes has spent most Mondays since the overturning of Roe v. Wade meeting with friends outside of an Iowa Planned Parenthood trying to stop abortions one at a time. He huddles monthly with other like-minded activists plotting more wholesale paths to halting the procedure.

    Lately, Hayes, an elder at Noelridge Park Church in Cedar Rapids, has observed more dissent among anti-abortion allies who once worked in harmony. Some see the fall of Roe as a one-time chance to ban abortion entirely while others are worried about the political consequences of pushing too hard too quickly.

    “Sadly, it becomes divisive to the point where we just get fractured,” Hayes said. “I can only imagine what the division looks like on a national scale.”

    Those divisions are spilling out into the 2024 Republican presidential primary, as leading anti-abortion organizations are offering candidates conflicting guidance on an issue that has galvanized the political right for half a century. Recent polling shows Republican voters aren’t providing candidates much more clarity.

    Lynda Bell, the president of Florida Right to Life, bristled at the suggestion that Republican candidates must back a federal abortion ban.

    “There’s nothing in the Constitution that talks about abortion and this issue should be decided by the states,” she said.

    But other leaders of anti-abortion groups want GOP candidates to be unflinching in their support for more hardline policies.

    “Anyone in the pro-life movement is looking very carefully at the current candidates that are running for president, and those who are not advocating strongly on this issue are going to be the ones that are not going to get the confidence and get the vote of the pro-life movement,” said Maggie DeWitte, the executive director of the Iowa anti-abortion group Pulse Life Advocates.

    Candidates are cautiously navigating the unclear expectations of conservative voters as they search for their first presidential nominee in a post-Roe America. Former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, the two highest-polling candidates for the GOP nomination, have routinely dodged questions on the trail about whether they would sign a national abortion ban and at how many weeks into a pregnancy they would support such federal legislation.

    Meanwhile, candidates who have expressed more defined views on the topic – like former Vice President Mike Pence, a backer of a federal ban, and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who said the federal government “should not be involved” in the abortion debate – have yet to gain traction with Republican voters.

    Whoever is the GOP nominee will face an electorate that has so far handed anti-abortion advocates a series of stinging defeats since the Supreme Court decision in Dobbs v. Jackson last summer. In the immediate aftermath of the court’s ruling, Kansans voted overwhelmingly to keep abortion legal in the state. In November, Michiganders at the ballot box enshrined abortion access in the state constitution. This week in Wisconsin, liberal justice Janet Protasiewicz started her term on the state Supreme Court after winning a spring race, during which she campaigned on protecting abortion access.

    The enthusiasm displayed by abortion-rights activists in the past 12 months will be tested again on Tuesday when Ohioans will decide whether to raise the threshold for passing a constitutional amendment, a referendum that would have significant implications for a fall ballot question ensure “every individual has a right to make and carry out one’s reproductive decisions.”

    “We need to start winning hearts and minds,” Hayes said. “I don’t think we can worry about a federal ban until you can do that.”

    Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, a national anti-abortion group, has clashed with the GOP contenders for the nomination as the organization enforces its own red line for presidential candidates: a 15-week federal ban.

    When Trump’s campaign suggested in April that abortion should be decided at the state level, Marjorie Dannenfelser, the organization’s president, called it “a morally indefensible position for a self-proclaimed pro-life presidential candidate to hold.” It was a stunning break between one of the country’s most influential anti-abortion groups and the president who nominated the three Supreme Court justices that helped secure the movement’s watershed victory. Trump and Dannenfelser later met to clear the air, though Trump has still evaded outlining his views on the issue.

    Dannenfelser similarly said it was “not acceptable” when another candidate, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, stated “it’s not realistic” to expect a gridlocked Congress to find consensus on federal abortion legislation.

    And, in a blistering rebuke this week, Dannenfelser questioned DeSantis’ leadership after he once again declined to back a federal abortion.

    “A pro-life president has a duty to protect the lives of all Americans,” she said. “He should be the National Defender of Life.”

    DeSantis dismissed the criticism during a campaign stop in New Hampshire, where he noticeably drops references to his state’s new abortion law – which bans most abortions after six weeks – from his stump speech.

    “Different groups, you know, are gonna have different agendas, but I can tell you this: Nobody running has actually delivered pro-life protections,” DeSantis said. “I have done that.”

    South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott seized on the fissure between DeSantis and the leading abortion group, writing in a social media post that, “Republicans should not be retreating on life.” He added, “We need a national 15-week limit to stop blue states from pushing abortion on demand.”

    Scott, though, also struggled to define the federal role in the next frontier for the anti-abortion movement after he entered the presidential race in May.

    The anti-abortion movement is not totally aligned behind Dannenfelser. Carol Tobias, the president of the National Right to Life Committee, said she thought it was a mistake to have a political litmus test for Republican presidential candidates on abortion and argued doing so would only serve to splinter the party ahead of the general election. It “doesn’t help” for SBA Pro-Life America to set a 15-week national ban as its standard for GOP candidates, Tobias said, arguing that there were more realistic goals to work towards, like ensuring zero tax dollars are used to fund abortions

    “If we’re not going to get a national law on abortion through Congress, why focus on it?” Tobias told CNN.

    Republican voters appear similarly divided. A New York Times/Siena College national survey released this week found more Republicans favored some exceptions (33%) than a total ban (22%). Meanwhile, one-third said they believed abortion should be mostly or always legal.

    But among White evangelical Republican voters – whose influence is especially pronounced in the early nominating contests in Iowa and South Carolina – opposition is higher. More than three-fourths responded that abortion should be always or mostly illegal.

    Further complicating the calculus for the Republican field is that the GOP voters least likely to vote for Trump are among the most likely to support at least some protections for abortion. For those Republicans who said they are not open to voting for Trump, only 11% support a total ban while more than half said they want abortion to be legal in most situations.

    The clashing opinions underscore the political tightrope Republican candidates are walking after their party underperformed in the 2022 midterms in an election held just months after Roe v. Wade was overturned. Some Republicans – including Trump – have blamed it for the party’s losses, pointing to South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham’s failed attempt to push a federal ban through Congress last year as strategically unsound.

    “I thought, ‘What is Lindsey Graham doing?’” Bell said. “The Supreme Court just said it was a state decision. I was baffled.”

    But there are also fears within the anti-abortion movement that Republicans won’t act to preserve their chances at the ballot box.

    “Some say, ‘Let’s just ignore it,’” Hayes, the Cedar Rapids church elder, said. “For me the worst thing can happen is that it’s either very diluted or taken out of the platform all together. I hope we won’t go there. But if we’re going to talk about it, we need to do it in a smart way.”

    In Hayes’ state, Republicans that control Iowa’s government moved to ban most abortions in the state as early as six weeks into pregnancy. Gov. Kim Reynolds signed the measure into law at last month’s Family Leadership Summit, where most of the GOP field had assembled to speak directly to the state’s evangelical and Christian voters. Many Republican candidates heaped praise on Reynolds for signing the law, though most have not advocated for similar legislation at the federal level.

    Trump, who has notably not weighed in on Iowa’s law, did not attend the summit and has privately said he considers abortion a losing issue for Republicans. Publicly, he called Florida’s six-week abortion ban “too harsh,” testing conservatives who once celebrated Trump’s place in ending Roe.

    “I think many in the pro-life movement were disappointed to hear him talk about life not being a winning issue, and sort of attacking the heartbeat bill and some of the other legislation that’s coming down as being ‘too harsh,’” DeWitte said. “I think that really turned off people in the pro-life movement.”

    Joni Lupis, a pastor and president and director of March For Life New York, said she is wary of candidates who aren’t taking a stance on the issue or offering realistic answers.

    “Let’s be honest: The president can’t just declare no more abortion in the whole world,” Lupis said. “They can say they will but it doesn’t mean it’s going to happen. That’s politics and we’ll have to wait and see what they have to do. I like a person that says what they believe. If you believe something, you should stand behind and declare it.”

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    August 6, 2023
  • Florida’s feud with the College Board’s AP Psychology course explained | CNN

    Florida’s feud with the College Board’s AP Psychology course explained | CNN

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    CNN
     — 

    A long-simmering feud between the College Board, the non-profit that administers Advanced Placement courses, and Florida’s Department of Education became public this week, as officials argued over whether the Advanced Placement Psychology course could be taught in Florida without breaking state laws.

    In Florida, students are prohibited from learning about sexual orientation or gender identity in the classroom.

    But the College Board says these lessons are a core component of the AP Psychology course and have refused to change the curriculum.

    On Thursday, the College Board announced that unless AP Psychology is taught in its entirety – including lessons on sexuality and gender – “the “AP Psychology” designation cannot be utilized on student transcripts.”

    The future of the course appeared to be in jeopardy until, late Friday, Florida Education Commissioner Manny Diaz, Jr., informed school superintendents that students will be able to take the class “in its entirety” but only if the course is taught “in a manner that is age and developmentally appropriate.”

    The public scuffle over the AP Psychology course is just the latest installment in an ongoing feud between the College Board and Florida education officials over what subjects can be taught in the state’s classrooms. Let’s discuss how we got here.

    In July, a new law came into effect in Florida that banned classroom instruction on sexual orientation or gender identity for students in pre-K through the 8th grade. For high school students, instruction must be “according to state standards,” the Board of Education said.

    But over the last year, Florida’s education officials have amended state standards to effectively ban all students from learning about sexual orientation and gender identity.

    The changes are in line with Gov. Ron DeSantis’ vow to eradicate so-called “woke” gender ideology from Florida’s classrooms.

    In 2022, the governor signed a bill titled “Parental Rights in Education,” which prohibited discussion of gender and sexuality issues in kindergarten through third grade. The bill also gave parents the right to take legal action if a school violates the law. DeSantis has since amended the law to prohibit instruction on sexuality and gender from pre-K through the eighth grade.

    The governor has said he believes parents should “have a fundamental role in the education, health care and well-being of their children.”

    Supporters say the bill allows parents to decide when to talk to their children about LGBTQ+ topics instead of the schools. But critics have dubbed it the “Don’t Say Gay” law and say it will further marginalize LGBTQ+ students.

    The College Board’s AP Psychology course is organized into nine units of study. The unit on developmental psychology includes lessons on gender and sexual orientation.

    According to the College Board, the course asks students to “describe how sex and gender influence socialization and other aspects of development.”

    These lessons are now considered illegal under Florida law.

    In June, Board of Education officials sent a letter to the College Board requesting the non-profit “conduct a thorough review” of all Advanced Placement courses to ensure they were compliant with Florida law.

    In a statement, the College Board equated the request to censorship.

    “(We) will not modify our courses to accommodate restrictions on teaching essential, college-level topics. Doing so would break the fundamental promise of AP: colleges wouldn’t broadly accept that course for credit and that course wouldn’t prepare students for careers in the discipline,” the non-profit said.

    Advanced Placement courses are standardized to ensure students who pass the final exam can transfer college credits to participating colleges and universities nationwide. The College Board has said all required topics, including sexual orientation and gender identity, must be included for the course to be designated advanced placement and count toward college credit.

    This isn’t the first time the College Board has sparred with the Florida Board of Education over what can be taught in Advanced Placement classes.

    Earlier this year, DeSantis rejected the non-profit’s AP African American Studies course because it included lessons on reparations, Black queer studies, and the Movement for Black Lives.

    The College Board initially attempted to revise the course framework, but the decision sparked outrage among academics and activists who said students should learn the “full history” of the Black experience in America.

    “We have learned from our mistakes in the recent rollout of AP African American Studies and know that we must be clear from the outset where we stand,” the non-profit later said in a statement.

    With days to go until students return to school, the College Board announced it would not remove AP Psychology lessons on gender identity and sexual orientation. Instead, the non-profit advised school districts to “not to offer AP Psychology until Florida reverses their decision and allows parents and students to choose to take the full course.”

    Florida education officials responded by accusing the non-profit of “hurting Florida students.”

    It is unclear how the state’s directive to teach the course “in a manner that is age and developmentally appropriate,” will be enforced.

    “AP Psychology is and will remain in the course directory making it available to Florida students,” Diaz said in a statement.

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    August 6, 2023
  • US Customs and Border Protection sends resources to remote Arizona area after increase in migrant crossings | CNN

    US Customs and Border Protection sends resources to remote Arizona area after increase in migrant crossings | CNN

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    CNN
     — 

    US border officials are increasing personnel and transportation resources at Ajo, Arizona, one of the most isolated and dangerous areas on the Southwest border, to deal with a recent increase in migrants and an ongoing heat wave.

    “Border Patrol has prioritized the quick transporting of noncitizens encountered in this desert environment, which is particularly dangerous during current weather conditions, to Border Patrol facilities where individuals can receive medical care, food and water,” a spokesperson for US Customs and Border Protection said in a statement.

    An excessive heat warning is in effect for Ajo until Sunday evening. “Dangerously hot conditions” and high temperatures of 106 to 112 degrees are expected, according to the National Weather Service.

    The spike in migration at Ajo is driven by human smuggling organizations shifting the flow of migrants to some of the most dangerous terrain, including the Cabeza Prieta National Wildlife Refuge and the Organ Pipe Cactus National Monument near Ajo, according to the Border Patrol.

    Currently, the average time in custody at the Ajo station is 15 hours, with some migrants spending a portion of those hours outside waiting to be transported, according to the Border Patrol. The agency said the fenced-in outdoor space is covered by a large canopy and migrants have access to large fans, meals, water, and bathroom facilities. The outdoor area is only used for adult men, while women, children, and members of vulnerable populations are held inside the station.

    “USBP has utilized outdoor shaded areas only when necessary and for very short times while they await onward transportation to larger facilities,” said the agency’s spokesperson. “The Ajo Border Patrol Station is not equipped to hold large number of migrants due to historic trends in this area.”

    After arriving at Ajo Station, migrants are screened and then transported to other locations for immigration processing, with the closest large Border Patrol facility or shelter 2.5 hours away, according to the Border Patrol.

    The agency would not disclose the Ajo facility’s capacity to CNN, citing security concerns.

    The Tucson Border Patrol sector encountered more than 24,000 migrants in June, making it the second-busiest sector on the southern border during the month, according to Border Patrol data.

    Border Patrol officials report no deaths have occurred at Ajo station or the surrounding areas since the beginning of the heat wave and since the increase in migrant encounters.

    Across the state, Arizonans have experienced extreme heat over the past weeks, with Phoenix recording 31 consecutive days with a high temperature of 110 degrees or above. The streak of high temperatures made July the hottest month on record for the city.

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    August 5, 2023
  • Former quarterback Johnny Manziel talks drug abuse, suicide attempt in new documentary | CNN

    Former quarterback Johnny Manziel talks drug abuse, suicide attempt in new documentary | CNN

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    CNN
     — 

    Former National Football League quarterback Johnny Manziel reveals in a new documentary his drug usage during his playing career and a suicide attempt following his release from the Cleveland Browns in 2016.

    In Netflix’s upcoming documentary “Untold: Johnny Football,” Manziel – who became the first redshirt freshman to win the Heisman Trophy while playing at Texas A&M in 2012 – said that he began using OxyContin and cocaine every day following the 2015 season, which led to his weight dropping from 215 pounds that January to 175 pounds in September.

    Poor play and legal troubles soon followed Manziel. A Texas grand jury indicted Manziel on a misdemeanor assault charge of his former girlfriend, Colleen Crowley. Manziel denied hitting Crowley at the time and the charges were later dropped after he met the court’s terms for a dismissal agreement.

    The Browns would release Manziel in March 2016, which he said he was later diagnosed with bipolar disorder.

    Manziel said he refused to enter rehab twice and began “self-sabotaging,” going on a “$5 million bender” before attempting suicide.

    “I had planned to do everything I wanted to do at that point in my life, spend as much money as I possibly could and then my plan was to take my life,” Manziel said in the documentary. “I wanted to get as bad as humanly possible to where it made sense, and it made it seem like an excuse and an out for me.”

    Manziel said he had purchased a gun “months earlier” with the intention to use it for suicide but the gun “malfunctioned” when he pulled the trigger.

    “Still to this day, don’t know what happened. But the gun just clicked on me,” he said.

    Manziel’s relationship with his family at the time was “strained” due to his refusal to seek treatment, he said. Manziel later returned to his family’s home in Texas after leaving Los Angeles following the suicide attempt.

    “It’s been a long, long road, and I don’t know if it’s been great or if it’s been bad – that’s kind of still up for debate,” Paul Manziel, his father, said in the documentary. “But we’re blessed. And he’s still with us. And we can mend all the fences still. I think Johnny’s got a lot better days coming than what he’s had.”

    CNN has reached out to the Browns for comment.

    Manziel was drafted in the first round of the 2014 NFL Draft. Following his release from the Browns, Manziel played for multiple teams in the Canadian Football League (CFL) and in the now-defunct Alliance of American Football (AAF). Manziel last played in the Fan Controlled Football league.

    The Netflix documentary is scheduled to be released on Tuesday.

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    August 4, 2023
  • Ukrainian drone strikes are bringing the war home to Russia. What does it mean for the conflict? | CNN

    Ukrainian drone strikes are bringing the war home to Russia. What does it mean for the conflict? | CNN

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    London
    CNN
     — 

    Ukrainian drone strikes taking place inside Russia once seemed an unthinkable prospect. But such attacks have become an increasingly common feature of Moscow’s war – with an emboldened Kyiv warning that more will come.

    A string of drone strikes have peppered Russian cities including Moscow throughout the summer. Friday saw one of the most dramatic yet – sea drones targeted a major Russian port hundreds of miles from Ukrainian-held territory, leaving a warship listing.

    They have distracted from a Ukrainian counteroffensive that is yet to produce tangible results on the battlefield, and brought the war home to Russia.

    But they are not without risk for Kyiv, which is attempting to seize the front foot in the war while maintaining relations with Western nations wary of any hint of escalation.

    Here’s what you need to know.

    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned last week that war is “gradually returning” to Russia, after the latest in a series of drone attacks to take place inside the country that Moscow has pinned on Kyiv.

    Last weekend’s incidents saw buildings in Moscow targeted by drones. On Tuesday, a drone struck the same skyscraper in Moscow that was hit on Sunday.

    It followed two similar attempted attacks that were reported by Russian officials earlier in July, and numerous such incidents in June. In May, an apparent drone attack above the Kremlin led to dramatic images of blasts in the skies above the seat of Russian power.

    Ukraine has typically not taken direct responsibility for the attacks, though its responses have become more bullish in recent weeks. “The distance and deniability between Kyiv and these attacks is significantly less,” Douglas Barrie, a senior fellow for Military Aerospace at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), told CNN. “There now seems to be almost a tacit recognition that it was (them).”

    Ukrainian Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, whose Digital Transformation Ministry oversees the country’s “Army of Drones” procurement plan, had said there would be more drone strikes to come as Kyiv ramps up its parallel summer counteroffensive aimed at pushing Russian troops out of Ukrainian territory.

    It is difficult to establish exactly which weapons systems are being used in the attacks, and precisely which buildings are being targeted, with both the Russian and Ukrainian sides refusing to be drawn on the details of the incidents.

    But there are clearly vast differences between these attacks, which are limited in scope, have caused few casualties and have not been aimed towards residential buildings, with those that Moscow has launched indiscriminately at Ukrainian population centers.

    “Whether or not they’re actually arriving on their intended targets, the targets do seem to be buildings that are linked with the prosecution of the war in Ukraine,” Keir Giles, a Russia expert at Chatham House and the author of books on Russia’s invasion and foreign policy, told CNN. “In that respect, it’s a very different approach to what we’ve seen in Russia, with indiscriminate terror attacks.”

    Giles notes there is “an open question of exactly how Ukraine is doing the attacks.” But the strikes have “shown up the incapacity of Russia’s defenses,” he added.

    The one-way unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) that have seemingly been launched “carry a pretty small warhead and they’ve been used in small numbers, so in terms of direct military affect, it’s limited to put it mildly,” said Barrie.

    “The kinds of systems that Ukraine is using are simple, comparatively speaking, but for their purpose they’re effective,” Barrie added.

    Crucially, there is no suggestion that the weapons have been donated by the West. “These are systems (Ukraine) can manufacture themselves,” Barrie said, allowing Kyiv to send military messages to the Russian people alongside its defensive war at home, which NATO nations have been supporting with military aid.

    “It’s fundamentally about showing that Moscow is not out of reach,” Barrie said.

    The attacks appeared to have targeted buildings involved in Russia's war effort.

    Kyiv will happily accept the limited military impact of the drone attacks, because the strikes play a far more important role in the war.

    “Ukraine has identified that Russian popular opinion and attitudes to the war is one of the key areas that they need to target in order to bring the war to an end,” Giles said. “As long as Russia can pretend that the war is something that happens elsewhere, nothing is going to dent that popular support.”

    Ukrainian officials have openly discussed the propaganda element of the strikes. Yurii Ihnat, a spokesman for Ukraine’s Air Force, said the latest drone attacks on Moscow were aimed at impacting Russians who, since the Kremlin invaded Ukraine in February 2022, felt the war was distant.

    “There’s always something flying in Russia, as well as in Moscow. Now the war is affecting those who were not concerned,” he said. “No matter how the Russian authorities would like to turn a blind eye on this by saying they have intercepted everything … something does hit.”

    Early signals suggest that the recent attacks have caused unrest among an already jittery class of military pundits in Russia.

    Noting criticisms from at least one prominent military blogger that Russia had not secured buildings against such attacks, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote in a recent update that “Russian authorities will likely struggle to balance the need to quell domestic concern over continuing drone attacks deep within the Russian rear with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s continued refusal to fully mobilize Russian society for the war and its corresponding consequences.”

    A dramatic drone incident in May appeared to target the Kremlin.

    Assessing public opinion in Russia is notoriously difficult. But anecdotal accounts at least speak to the impact of drone strikes on those in the vicinity of the attacks.

    “My friends and I rented an apartment to come here and unwind, and at some point, we heard an explosion – it was like a wave, everyone jumped,” one witness told Reuters after last weekend’s strike in Moscow. “There was a lot of smoke, and you couldn’t see anything. From above, you could see fire.”

    “It does seem to be achieving the kind of startle value that you might expect, where Russians are realizing that they are not personally protected from what is being done in Ukraine,” Giles said of the early indications of the strikes’ consequences.

    Whether the trend will cause a wider rupturing of Russian support for the war is far from clear.

    On the one hand, Putin’s longstanding pretext for the war has relied on baseless claims that Ukraine was a threat to Russian security, and that the so-called special military operation in the country was needed to defend Russia’s interest. Playing up recent attacks could be used to support that argument as the war drags on.

    But after almost eighteen months of disorganization and discord, the reality that Russia’s military plans are flailing has been increasingly hard to deny. And Putin’s authority has previously appeared most vulnerable at moments when the impact of the war hits home in Russia – such as during last year’s chaotic military mobilization, and during June’s Wagner rebellion.

    In that context, it is easy to see why regular reminders of the conflict inside Russia serve Ukraine’s strategic interests.

    For all of its intended propaganda impact, sending drones into Russia is not a risk-free move for Kyiv.

    The most immediate consideration is a reprisal; the Kremlin has tended to link attacks on Ukrainian cities to previous strikes on Russia, in a “tit-for-tat” approach intended to cause panic in Ukraine.

    But Ukrainians are by now well acquainted to the threat of Russian air bombardments, and there has been no evidence that such assaults have dented determination in the defensive effort there.

    A more prominent concern is how the West reacts to such strikes. A year ago, the prospect of Ukraine sending drones into Russia was unthinkable, given the tacit contract between NATO nations and Kyiv that the West would readily support a defensive war, but would be more wary of any actions that draw NATO into direct conflict with Russia.

    There is nothing to suggest Ukraine has used NATO-provided weaponry in Russia – doing so is likely a bridge they would not consider crossing at this time – but it has clearly become more emboldened to take the war to Russia. And in return, Western leaders appear generally relaxed about the approach.

    “The long-standing prohibition on striking into Russia that has been put in place by the suppliers … was misplaced and misconceived,” Giles said. “For all of this period, it has played Russia’s game by Russia’s rules.”

    There does remain a degree of variance in how Western leaders view attacks on Russian territory, with the United States being particularly concerned. “As a general matter we do not support attacks inside of Russia,” White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters late last month, according to Reuters.

    But Kyiv’s confidence and an increasing willingness to chip away at Russian support for the war will likely mean that such strikes remain a feature of the conflict.

    “It’s impossible to tell how this will develop but we should certainly expect at least this level of a steady drumbeat of demonstrations of Russian vulnerability to continue,” Giles said.

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    August 4, 2023
  • ‘Zelda’ sales breakout juices Nintendo’s aging Switch | CNN Business

    ‘Zelda’ sales breakout juices Nintendo’s aging Switch | CNN Business

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    CNN
     — 

    Japan’s Nintendo on Thursday said it sold 3.91 million units of its Switch console in the April-June quarter, exceeding sales in the same period a year earlier, boosted by the runaway success of its latest “Zelda” title.

    Investor sentiment has been buoyed by the breakout success of the “The Super Mario Bros. Movie,” which leads this year’s global box office ranking, and praise for video game “The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom” which went on sale in May.

    Nintendo

    (NTDOF)
    said it sold 18.51 million units of “Tears of the Kingdom” in the first quarter. The game has a score of 96 out of 100 on reviews aggregator Metacritic, indicating universal acclaim.

    Still, the market is focused on the timing of a potential successor for the hybrid home-portable Switch, which has received incremental updates including a handheld-only version but is now in its seventh year on the market.

    “I think they’re going to ride out this fiscal year and squeeze the last bit of juice out of this system and then establish excitement for the new hardware sometime next year,” said Serkan Toto, founder of the Kantan Games consultancy.

    The Kyoto-based gaming firm maintained its full-year forecast for the console of 15 million units.

    It sold 17.97 million units in the previous financial year.

    Hitting the sales target at this stage of the console’s lifecycle would underscore Nintendo’s success in extending the appeal of its hardware and uniting its console and handheld businesses in a single device.

    Unlike periods of thin games supply previously, Nintendo also has a robust pipeline of titles with “Detective Pikachu Returns” and “Super Mario Bros. Wonder” due for release later this year.

    Nintendo’s shares have delivered a more than three-fold return, including dividends, since the Switch went on sale in major markets in March 2017, outperforming the benchmark Nikkei’s 91% return over the same period.

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    August 3, 2023
  • International Space Station Fast Facts | CNN

    International Space Station Fast Facts | CNN

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    CNN
     — 

    Here’s a look at the International Space Station (ISS), a spacecraft built by a partnership of 16 nations: United States, Canada, Japan, Russia, Brazil, Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom.

    Information on ISS crews and expeditions can be found here.

    The ISS includes three main modules connected by nodes: the US Laboratory Module Destiny, the European Research Laboratory Columbus, and the Japanese Experiment Module Kibo (Hope). Each was launched separately and connected in space by astronauts.

    Mass: 925,335 pounds (419,725 kilograms)

    Habitable Volume: 13,696 cubic feet (388 cubic meters)

    Solar Array Length: 239 feet (75 meters)

    The ISS orbits Earth 16 times a day.

    As of June 22, 2023, 266 spacewalks have been conducted for station assembly and maintenance.

    November 1998 – A Russian Proton rocket places the first piece, the Zarya module, in orbit.

    December 1998 – The space shuttle Endeavour crew, on the STS-88 mission, attaches the Unity module to Zarya initiating the first ISS assembly sequence.

    June 1999 – The space shuttle Discovery crew, on mission STS-96, supplies two modules with tools and cranes.

    July 2000 – Zvezda, the fifth flight, docks with the ISS to become the third major component of the station.

    November 2000 – The first permanent crew, Expedition One, arrives at the station.

    November/December 2000 – The space shuttle Endeavour crew, on mission STS-97, installs the first set of US solar arrays on the station and visits Expedition One.

    February 2001 – Mission STS-98 delivers the US Destiny Laboratory Module.

    March 2001 – STS-102 delivers Expedition Two to the station and brings Expedition One home. The crew also brings Leonardo, the first Multi-Purpose Logistics Module, to the station.

    September 16, 2001 – The Russian Docking Compartment, Pirs, arrives at the ISS.

    June 2002 – STS-111 delivers the Expedition Five crew and brings the Expedition Four crew home. The crew also brings the Mobile Base System to the orbital outpost.

    December 2002 – STS-113 delivers the Expedition Six crew and the P1 Truss.

    May 3, 2003 – Expedition Six crew return to Earth on Soyuz TMA-1. Crew members Kenneth Bowersox and Don Pettit are the first American astronauts ever to land in a Soyuz spacecraft.

    July 29, 2003 – Marks the 1,000th consecutive day of people living and working aboard the ISS (this is a record for the station, but not for space).

    August 10, 2003 – Russian Cosmonaut Yuri Malenchenko marries his fiancée Ekaterina Dmitriev from space. The bride and groom exchange vows over a hotline set up for the event. Dmitriev stands next to a life-sized picture of Malenchenko.

    April 22, 2004 – The second of four gyroscopes that stabilize the orbiting outpost of the ISS fails. NASA officials say this does not pose an immediate threat to the crew. An extra spacewalk will have to be conducted to the fix the electrical component box thought to be at fault.

    November 2, 2005 – Fifth anniversary of continuous human presence in space on the ISS.

    February 3, 2006 – SuitSat-1, an unmanned space suit containing a radio transmitter is deployed as a part of an ISS spacewalk. The suit is supposed to transmit recorded messages in six languages to school children and amateur radio operators for several days before reentering Earth’s atmosphere and burning up, but it goes silent shortly after its deployment.

    March 31, 2006 – Arriving with the crew of Expedition Thirteen is Marcos Pontes, the first Brazilian astronaut. Staying eight days, Pontes conducts scientific experiments before returning to Earth with the crew of Expedition Twelve.

    July 7, 2006 – The arrival of Thomas Reiter of Germany via the Space Shuttle Discovery returns the station’s long-duration crew to three for the first time since May 2003 and the Columbia shuttle disaster. Reiter is the first non-US and non-Russian long-duration station crewmember, and he remains onboard during the first part of Expedition Fourteen.

    September 9, 2006 – Space Shuttle Atlantis docks with the ISS, delivering the P3/P4 truss and its solar wings before undocking September 21 and returning to Earth.

    September 20, 2006 – Arriving with the crew of Expedition Fourteen is Anousheh Ansari, an American businesswoman. She spends about eight days conducting experiments and blogging about her experiences before returning to Earth with two of the three members of Expedition Thirteen.

    December 2006 – Arrival of Flight Engineer Sunita Williams via space shuttle mission STS-116. Williams replaces Reiter, who returns to Earth with the crew of STS-116.

    April 7, 2007 – Charles Simonyi becomes the fifth space tourist when he accompanies the Expedition Fifteen crew to the ISS. He spends 12 days aboard the space station before returning to Earth with the crew of Expedition Fourteen.

    June 10, 2007 – Space Shuttle Atlantis docks with the the ISS to install a new segment and solar panel on the space station and retrieve astronaut Williams, who has been at the space station since December. Williams is replaced by Flight Engineer Clayton Anderson, who will return to earth aboard Discovery on Mission STS-120.

    June 15, 2007 – Four days after ISS’s computers crash, two Russian cosmonauts bring them back online. The computers control the station’s orientation as well as oxygen production. The crew used Atlantis’ thrusters to help maintain the station’s position while its computers were down.

    October 25, 2007 – Space Shuttle Discovery docks with the ISS. In the days while docked with the ISS, the Discovery crew delivers and connects Harmony to the ISS, a living and working compartment that will also serve as the docking port for Japanese and European Union laboratories. Discovery and ISS crew also move an ISS solar array to prepare for future ISS expansion, planning a special spacewalk to repair damage to the solar array that occurred during its unfurling.

    November 14, 2007 – ISS crew move the Harmony node from its temporary location on the Unity node to its permanent location attached to Destiny.

    February 9, 2008 – Space Shuttle Atlantis arrives. Its crew delivers the European-made Columbus laboratory, a 23-foot long module that will be home to a variety of science experiments. Atlantis remains docked with the ISS for just under nine days.

    March 9, 2008 – “Jules Verne,” the first of a series of European space vessels designed to deliver supplies to the ISS, launches from the Ariane Launch Complex in Kourou, French Guiana. The vessels, called Automated Transfer Vehicles (ATV), are propelled into space atop an Ariane 5 rocket, and are designed to dock with the ISS with no human assistance. The Jules Verne will wait to dock with the ISS until after Space Shuttle Endeavour’s March mission is completed.

    March 12, 2008 – Space Shuttle Endeavour docks with the ISS.

    March 24, 2008 – Endeavour detaches from the ISS. While docked, crew members make five spacewalks to deliver and assemble the Dextre Robotics System, deliver and attach the Kibo logistics module, attach science experiments to the exterior of the ISS, and perform other inspection and maintenance tasks.

    April 3, 2008 – The unmanned European cargo ship Jules Verne successfully docks with the ISS. Able to carry more than three times the volume of the Russian-built Progress resupply vehicles, the Jules Verne contains fuel, water, oxygen and other supplies.

    April 10, 2008 – Two members of Expedition 17 crew arrive at the ISS via a Russian Soyuz spacecraft. Travelling with them is Yi So-yeon, a space flight participant and South Korea’s first astronaut. Yi later returns to Earth aboard an older Soyuz spacecraft along with members of the Expedition 16 crew.

    June 2, 2008 – Space Shuttle Discovery docks with the ISS. Discovery is carrying Japan’s Kibo lab, a replacement pump for the station’s toilet, and astronaut Gregory Chamitoff, who is replacing Garrett Reisman as part of the station’s crew.

    June 11, 2008 – Discovery undocks with the ISS after its crew successfully delivers and installs the Japanese-built Kibo lab, delivers parts to repair the ISS’s malfunctioning toilet, collects debris samples from the station’s faulty solar power wing, and retrieves an inspection boom left behind during a previous shuttle mission. Station crewmember Reisman departs with Discovery.

    October 12, 2008 – The Soyuz TMA-13 capsule carrying two Americans – flight commander Michael Fincke and computer game millionaire Richard Garriott, and Russian flight engineer Yuri Lonchakov – lifts off from Kazakhstan. It docks with the ISS on October 14.

    March 12, 2009 – Orbital debris from a prior space shuttle mission forces the crew of Expedition 18 to temporarily retreat to its Soyuz capsule.

    August 24, 2011 – Russian emergency officials report that an unmanned Russian cargo craft, the Progress-M12M that was to deliver 3.85 tons of food and supplies to the ISS, crashed in a remote area of Siberia.

    May 19, 2012 – SpaceX’s launch of the Falcon 9 rocket, the first private spacecraft bound for the ISS, is aborted a half a second before liftoff. SpaceX engineers trace the problem to a faulty rocket engine valve.

    May 22, 2012 – The unmanned SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket launches from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station in Florida. The rocket carries the Dragon spacecraft, which is filled with food, supplies and science experiments and bound for the ISS.

    May 25, 2012 – The unmanned SpaceX Dragon spacecraft connects to the International Space Station, the first private spacecraft to successfully reach an orbiting space station.

    October 7, 2012 – SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket, with its Dragon capsule carrying 1,000 pounds of supplies bound for the ISS, launches from Florida’s Cape Canaveral. It is the first of a dozen NASA-contracted flights to resupply the International Space Station, at a total cost of $1.6 billion.

    May 9, 2013 – The crew discovers that the ISS is leaking ammonia. The crew performs a spacewalk and corrects the leak two days later.

    November 9, 2013 – Russian cosmonauts perform the first ever spacewalk of the Olympic Torch ahead of the 2014 Sochi Winter Games.

    December 11, 2013 – A pump on one of the station’s two external cooling loops shuts down after hitting a temperature limit, according to NASA. The malfunctioning loop had been producing too much ammonia, possibly the result of a malfunctioning valve.

    December 24, 2013 – Astronauts complete a repair job to replace the problematic pump. Their spacewalk lasts seven and a half hours, and is the second ever spacewalk on Christmas Eve. The first was in 1999 for a Hubble Repair Mission.

    March 10, 2014 – After five and a half months aboard the ISS, Expedition 38 astronauts return to earth aboard the Soyuz TMA-10M spacecraft.

    September 16, 2014 – NASA announces that Boeing and Space X have been awarded contracts to build vehicles that will shuttle astronauts to and from the space station.

    December 15, 2015 – Astronaut Tim Peake is the first British European Space Agency astronaut to arrive at the ISS.

    March 2, 2016 – NASA astronaut Scott Kelly and Russian cosmonaut Mikhail Kornienko land in the Kazakhstan desert after a nearly yearlong mission on the ISS.

    August 3, 2018 – NASA selects nine astronauts, seven men and two women, for missions in spacecraft developed by Boeing and SpaceX. The flights, scheduled for 2019, will be the first launches to space from US soil since the Space Shuttle program was retired in 2011, and the first in capsules developed and built by the private sector.

    June 2019 – NASA announces the ISS is opening for commercial use. The newest NASA directive is intended to allow “commercial manufacturing and production and allow both NASA and private astronauts to conduct new commercial activities aboard the orbiting laboratory.”

    October 18, 2019 – NASA astronauts Jessica Meir and Christina Koch conduct the first all-female spacewalk outside of the ISS. The spacewalk last seven hours and 17 minutes.

    May 30, 2020 – SpaceX and NASA’s Falcon 9, bound for the ISS, launches. This is the first crewed spaceflight to launch from US soil since 2011. The astronauts spend two months working on the ISS, then return to Earth on August 2.

    November 16, 2020 – The SpaceX Crew Dragon spacecraft with four astronauts on board safely docks with the ISS. The spacecraft launched from Florida’s Kennedy Space Center on November 15 and marks the first fully operational crewed mission for SpaceX.

    April 21, 2021 – Russia announces that it is ready to start building its own space station with the aim of launching it into orbit by 2030, according to Interfax news agency. The project will mark a new chapter for Russian space exploration. Russia, which signed a memorandum of understanding in March to explore establishing a joint lunar base with China, will notify its ISS partners regarding its departure from ISS at a future date.

    June 16, 2021 – NASA astronaut Shane Kimbrough and European Space Agency astronaut Thomas Pesquet conduct a spacewalk to install solar arrays on the space station. After technical delays, the work is completed four days later. The arrays are rolled up like carpet and are 750 pounds (340 kilograms) and 10 feet (three meters) wide. They will provide a power boost to the space station.

    January 31, 2022 – NASA reveals it intends to keep operating the ISS until the end of 2030, after which the ISS will be crashed into a remote part of the Pacific Ocean known as Point Nemo.

    April 9, 2022 – The first crew entirely comprised of private citizens reaches the ISS.

    July 26, 2022 – Russia announces it is planning to pull out of the ISS after 2024, ending its decades-long partnership with NASA at the orbiting outpost.

    October 6, 2022 – A SpaceX capsule carrying a multinational crew of astronauts docks with the ISS after a 29-hour trek. The mission launched from Kennedy Space Center in Florida at 12 p.m. ET on October 5. The four crew members included astronauts Nicole Mann and Josh Cassada of NASA, astronaut Koichi Wakata of Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, and cosmonaut Anna Kikina of Roscosmos, the first Russian to travel on a SpaceX spaceflight.

    October 24, 2022 – According to NASA, the ISS fires its thrusters to maneuver out of the way of a piece of oncoming Russian space junk.

    December 22, 2022 – Two NASA astronauts carry out a spacewalk to install a new solar panel on the ISS. The spacewalk lasts about seven hours.

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    August 2, 2023
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