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Dexter stayed over the open Atlantic.
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Spectrum News Weather Staff
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Colorado State University updates Atlantic hurricane season forecast
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Researchers at Colorado State University updated their 2025 Atlantic hurricane season forecast Wednesday morning, and are still calling for above normal activity. The initial forecast released in early April also predicted above normal activity.
The updated forecast calls for 16 named storms, including the 4 that have already formed. Of those 16 storms, 8 are expected to become hurricanes and 3 are expected to reach major hurricane strength. These are the same numbers from CSU’s last update back in July.
This is a slight reduction from CSU’s original forecast released in April, which called for 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes.
Despite the above-normal forecast, CSU notes lower-than-normal confidence with this outlook. Although sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern Atlantic have warmed above normal over the past few weeks, there is some uncertainty.
Researchers say, “the primary reason for the uncertainty in the outlook is the high observed Caribbean shear over the past several weeks. Typically, high levels of Caribbean shear in June–July are associated with less active hurricane seasons.”
The ENSO phase is neutral right now, and strong trade winds over the central tropical Pacific for the next few weeks will likely reduce the potential for a transition to El Niño conditions compared to what was previously thought. The tropics are typically more active during El Niño years.
Here is the list of names being used for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, last used in 2019. Dexter is the only new name on the list after Dorian was retired for causing extensive death and destruction in the Bahamas, Southeast U.S. and eastern Canada.
The CSU forecast matches NOAA’s hurricane season forecast, which also calls for above normal activity. You can track the latest activity in the tropics here.
Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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Meteorologist Reid Lybarger
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Colorado State University updates Atlantic hurricane season forecast
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Researchers at Colorado State University updated their 2025 Atlantic hurricane season forecast Wednesday morning, and are still calling for above normal activity. The initial forecast released in early April also predicted above normal activity.
The updated forecast calls for 16 named storms, including the 4 that have already formed. Of those 16 storms, 8 are expected to become hurricanes and 3 are expected to reach major hurricane strength. These are the same numbers from CSU’s last update back in July.
This is a slight reduction from CSU’s original forecast released in April, which called for 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes.
Despite the above-normal forecast, CSU notes lower-than-normal confidence with this outlook. Although sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern Atlantic have warmed above normal over the past few weeks, there is some uncertainty.
Researchers say, “the primary reason for the uncertainty in the outlook is the high observed Caribbean shear over the past several weeks. Typically, high levels of Caribbean shear in June–July are associated with less active hurricane seasons.”
The ENSO phase is neutral right now, and strong trade winds over the central tropical Pacific for the next few weeks will likely reduce the potential for a transition to El Niño conditions compared to what was previously thought. The tropics are typically more active during El Niño years.
Here is the list of names being used for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, last used in 2019. Dexter is the only new name on the list after Dorian was retired for causing extensive death and destruction in the Bahamas, Southeast U.S. and eastern Canada.
The CSU forecast matches NOAA’s hurricane season forecast, which also calls for above normal activity. You can track the latest activity in the tropics here.
Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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Meteorologist Reid Lybarger
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Chantal brought heavy rain and significant flooding to the Carolinas
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Chantal has become post-tropical as continues to move through the Mid-Atlantic. It’s expected to dissipate later Monday with some additional rainfall and flooding potential across parts of eastern Virginia, Maryland, Delaware and Pennsylvania.
Chantal began as Tropical Depression Three, forming off the coast of northeast Florida. It became Tropical Storm Chantal one day later, on July 5.
It made landfall just one day after forming, moving inland near Litchfield Beach, South Carolina, as a tropical storm with winds of 60 mph on July 6. Chantal was the first storm to make landfall in the U.S. during the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
The highest winds reported were in Myrtle Beach at the Springmaid Pier, with gusts up to 56 mph. An EF0 tornado also touched down in Wilmington, N.C., causing minor home damage and extensive tree damage.
Heavy rainfall and flash flooding were the biggest impacts from Chantal. Radar-estimated rainfall totals up 9 to 12 inches were recorded in parts of North Carolina between Raleigh and Greensboro, causing significant flooding around Chapel Hill and nearby rivers.
Chapel Hill Fire Department said it performed roughly 50 rescues since Sunday morning. First responders also rescued people in Durham after the Eno River hit major flood stage. Flooding on the Haw River shut down I-85 and I-40 in Alamance County after Chantal moved through.
There are no more watches and warnings in effect.
Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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Spectrum News Weather Staff
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Where to expect tropical activity in July
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We’re just over one month into the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. Forecasters are expecting another active season, so it’s important to know where tropical systems could form this month.
Historically, July is still a relatively quiet month across the Atlantic basin for tropical activity. According to NOAA, July only accounts for 7% of the Atlantic’s named storms since 1851, and less than 6% of hurricanes.
There are a handful of limiting factors working against tropical development this month. Saharan dust outbreaks are still common this time of the year, and sea surface temperatures across the Atlantic’s main development region are still warming up, so tropical waves that track across the length of the Atlantic Ocean and survive to make landfall in the U.S. aren’t too common.
The most common areas for tropical development this month are closer to land. These home-grown systems can spin up in the Gulf or off the Atlantic coast over the Gulf stream, where waters are slightly warmer and conditions are more favorable.
Just because tropical systems don’t usually form in July doesn’t mean they can’t.
Last year, Hurricane Beryl became the earliest Category 5 storm in the Atlantic basin on record in early July. It made three landfalls, eventually moving inland over the U.S. near Matagorda, Texas, on July 8, 2024 as a Category 1 storm.
Only three major hurricanes have made landfall in the U.S. during July. Most recently, Hurricane Dennis in 2005.
Dennis made landfall on Santa Rosa Island, Florida, as a Category 3 hurricane on July 10. It caused almost $4 billion of damage across the U.S. and Caribbean, and was responsible for 90 deaths, 17 in the U.S.
The other two major hurricanes to make landfall in July were from the early 1900s. The Gulf Coast Hurricane of 1916 made landfall on July 5, 1916, near Pascagoula, Mississippi, as a Category 3 hurricane, claiming at least 34 lives.
The 1909 Velasco hurricane made landfall near Velasco, Texas, on July 21, 1909 as a Category 3 hurricane, causing 41 deaths.
Development zones expand and tropical activity increases as we get further into summer.
Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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Meteorologist Reid Lybarger
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Parrish family invests in new equipment and techniques to prevent flooding
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MANATEE COUNTY, Fla. — Some residents who are in a low flood risk areas, or maybe not in a flood zone at all, had major flooding problems last year.
We spoke to a Manatee County resident who is installing pumps on his property to move the water out and prevent issues in the future.
What You Need To Know
- Bradley Anderson and his family live in a low-risk flood zone in Parrish
- Their property flooded for the first time last storm season
- Now Anderson and his family have invested in new equipment and techniques to hopefully prevent another flood
Heavy lifting is part of Bradley Anderson’s new plan.
“Right now we are starting the process of being proactive,” he said.
In this case, he’s creating a drainage path by moving dirt.
“And moving a lot of dirt to raise certain portions of the property to drain water where we need it to,” he said.
Bradley Anderson’s property flooded property. (Courtesy: Bradley Anderson)
This new approach comes after his family’s Parrish property flooded multiple times during last year’s hurricane season.
“I don’t want to become a statistic. Seeing so many folks that assume that what they’re doing is going to be enough. I need to control the part that I can,” he said.
But no one can control the force of a storm. Anderson sent us video of flooding on his property.
It’s in Flood Zone X, considered to be low-risk, yet flooded in Debby, Helene, and Milton.
“We would be sloshing through water and it ran up all the way to the front of the home,” he said.
Bradley Anderson’s property flooded property. (Courtesy: Bradley Anderson)
Our weather experts shared data from an Ellenton rain gauge for those three storms.
The total from both Debby – 14.6 inches – and Milton – 6.2 inches – exceeded the monthly averages, while Helene also dropped nearly 2.5 inches of rain in central Manatee County.
If the property floods again, Anderson says he will use a pump to drain the water.
“As the water starts to rise, the pump kicks in. This provides a lot more peace of mind,” he said.
And there’s more than 500 feet of pipe that he will run to the front of their land.
“We’re just taking all necessary precautions because you never know when one storm or the surrounding impact is going to come through,” he said.
Bradley Anderson’s property flooded property. (Courtesy: Bradley Anderson)
The water will then dump out here into a culvert.
“Our hope is that the utilities work the way they are designed to,” he said.
From priming the pipes on his property, to preparing a large hole for excess waste, it will take weeks to complete everything. And even then, the homeowners tell me they are worried it won’t be enough.
“This is a lot of labor — a labor of love,” he said.
But it’s also been a large financial investment for his family.
“The pumps alone, we’re in the low thousands. The equipment rental itself — I mean, you’re talking hundreds of dollars per day,” he said.
Each day, as Anderson continues to prepare, he is counting on this project to safeguard the property for future storm seasons.
Anderson tells us it will take a month to complete moving the dirt to elevate part of his property.
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Julia Hazel
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Two Pasco County women’s stories of survival during Hurricane Helene
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PASCO COUNTY, Fla. — It’s a critical question many Floridians contemplate during hurricane season — should I stay or should I go?
Evacuating during a storm can have its setbacks but, ultimately, can be the difference between life and death.
On the water’s edge in Hudson, proudly stands the home of Kate Mullin.
“This is where I live full time,” she says. “This is my home. I have electric and that’s it, really. Oh, and water.”
It’s been eight months since Hurricane Helene, which flooded Mullin’s home and forced her to evacuate. Its impression is still noticeable on the home’s walls.
Kate Mullin evacuated during Hurricane Helene (Courtesy: Calvin Lewis / Spectrum News)
“It’s hard when you come back and you’ve got four and a half feet of flood water that’s just taken away everything you’ve worked the last year for,” said Mullin, who evacuated during Hurricane Helene.
Being in a mandatory evacuation zone, Mullin says she headed inland to Spring Hill. But it didn’t come without any sacrifices, as she had to leave her cat ‘Robby’ behind. Mullin jokes the cat may have a life or two left.
“Five. He’s had two, one with each storm.”
Jokes aside, had Mullin also stayed, she says the consequences could have been dire.
“Probably, if I’d have stayed, which I wouldn’t have thought about to do because you know how bad floods can be. I wouldn’t have made it,” she said/
Thirty minutes south of Mullin in Holiday…
“I fly an American Flag. I have ever since I bought the house and previous owners did, too. It’s one of my favorite parts of the house.”
Stacey Van Schenck has a different story — one that did not involve evacuating.
“I’ve lived through all of them and never experienced anything like what I just experienced,” said Van Schenck.
Van Schenck’s sentiment is one many Floridians share, thinking a storm won’t impact them until it does.
Stacey Van Schenck did not evacuate during Hurricane Helene (Courtesy: Calvin Lewis / Spectrum News)
“Complacency is something that the folks around Tampa Bay have dealt with many hurricane seasons over,” says Spectrum Bay News 9 meteorologist Josh Linker. Linker says Hurricane Helene changed people’s perspective. So when Hurricane Milton approached weeks later, people started thinking of evacuating early.
“The challenge with that, deciding not to evacuate early, is that maybe your neighborhood is not going to be underwater, but your evacuation path might be,” Linker said. “In this area here, as an example, in North St. Pete, this was under several feet of water, making certain intersections and roadways impassable. If you made that decision late, that’s going to cause some bigger problems for you.”
Van Schenck says by the time she thought about evacuating, it was too late. It is a lesson she’s learned for the future.
“I think what people lose sight of, and myself as well, is if you don’t evacuate and you have a medical emergency, first responders can’t get to you,” said Van Schenk. “So you’re putting your own life at risk, not only for the dangers of the storm, but after the fact.”
A view Mullin shares…
“If they tell you evacuate, I evacuate,” she says. “You can’t live on the water and just think that’s OK.”
Both women continue picking up the pieces. With a few surprises to be found along the way, including Van Schenk’s missing flag.
“That makes my heart happy; like I said, things like this, that excites me,” says Van Schenk. “It’s a sign of hope to me, for some reason, that just makes my day to see that’s where my flag is. And I can’t believe in six months I haven’t noticed that.”
A small glimmer of hope during a difficult time, surviving a storm season that left a lasting impact on both women’s lives.
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Calvin Lewis
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Hurricane Milton by the numbers
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TAMPA, Fla. — The National Hurricane Center released its final report on Hurricane Milton. Here are the final numbers from around Tampa Bay.
What You Need To Know
- Milton was one of the strongest hurricanes on record in the Atlantic basin
- It had peak winds of 180 mph
- Milton made landfall near Siesta Key on Oct. 9, 2024
- More than 20 inches of rain fell in St. Petersburg
- More Hurricane Milton stories
MILTON STATS
Milton was one of the strongest hurricanes on record in the Atlantic basin, reaching Category 5 intensity in the Gulf on Oct. 7, 2024 with peak winds 180 mph (155 kts).
The pressure is estimated to have been 895 mb at the time of peak intensity. This ties Hurricane Rita of 2005 for the fourth-lowest minimum central pressure in the Atlantic basin. The lower central pressures include 882 mb in Wilma in 2005, 888 mb in Gilbert in 1988 and 892 mb in the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935.
Milton made landfall near Siesta Key on Oct. 9, 2024 at 8:30 p.m. as a Category 3 hurricane with max winds of 115 mph.
The NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) estimates that Milton caused $34.3 billion in damage in the United States, almost exclusively in Florida.
One prominent building damaged by the hurricane was Tropicana Field, where the fabric roof was ripped off by high winds followed by water damage from rain falling into the stadium.
The report notes that the west coast most affected by Hurricane Milton had also been affected by Hurricane Helene two weeks before, which complicated damage assessments.
In Florida, Milton caused hurricane conditions along the west coast from Clearwater Beach and Tampa southward across Sarasota to near Venice. Tropical storm conditions occurred elsewhere across the Florida Peninsula south of a Cedar Key – Fernandina Beach line, with hurricane-force wind gusts reported in central Florida near the track of the center.
STORM SURGE
Here are the storm surge numbers from Florida’s Gulf Coast.
- 4-6 ft from Longboat key to Venice and near landfall location.
- 1-2 feet Tampa Bay (a sharp gradient in the surge occurred north of the landfall location where the winds were mostly offshore)
- 4–6 ft south of Boca Grande through Bonita Beach.
- 5–8 ft in the northern portion of Charlotte Harbor and along the Peace River.
- 6–9 ft from Venice southward to Boca Grande
- An isolated peak of up to 10 ft estimated near Manasota Key, excluding the height of waves.
There were destructive storm surge impacts to the Manasota Key beach front community and significant coastal erosion. A new inlet was opened termed Milton Pass. Survey crews concluded that the water was moving extremely fast and the wave action was tremendous, leading to ‘blowout’ of the first floor of many structures.
The report notes that the same area had a significant storm surge from Hurricane Helene two weeks prior, and the erosion and debris from its aftermath compounded the damages incurred during Milton.
WINDS
Here are the top wind reports from Milton that were recorded over water:
- Egmont Key 86/105 mph
- Skyway Fishing Pier 73/102 mph
- Sarasota-Bradenton Airport 69/102 mph
- Middle Tampa Bay 74/98 mph
- Egmont Channel 78/100 mph
Here are the top wind reports from each county around Tampa Bay:
- Manatee County: Peak wind gusts 80 to 100 mph, Sarasota-Bradenton Airport 102 mph wind gust
- Pinellas County: Peak wind gusts 80 to 100 mph, St. Petersburg Albert Whitted Airport 101 mph wind gust
- Hillsborough County: Peak wind gusts 80 to 100 mph, Tampa Airport 93 mph wind gust
- Polk County: Peak wind gusts 80 to 90 mph, Winter Haven Airport 87 mph wind gust
- Pasco County: Peak wind gusts 65 to 75 mph, Zephyrhills 59 mph wind gust
- Hernando County: Peak wind gusts 60 to 70 mph, Brooksville 76 mph wind gust
- Citrus County: Peak wind gusts 50 to 60 mph., Inverness 58 mph wind gust
RAINFALL AND FLOODING
Milton produced a large area of heavy rain across portions of the central and northern Florida Peninsula, including 10 to 20 inches of rain in Tampa Bay.
The highest reported storm total rainfall was 20.40 inches at a Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network (CoCoRaHS) site near St. Petersburg.
Here’s a collection of rainfall reports from the airports, CoCoRaHS, and other sites:
- 20.40” St. Petersburg
- 18.88” St. Petersburg Albert Whitted Airport
- 18.82” near Westchase
- 16.88” Largo
- 15.66” Temple Terrace
- 15.03” Pinellas Park
- 14.94” Dade City
- 14.15” Trilby
- 14.73” Dover
- 14.13” Zephyrhills
- 13.68” Oldsmar
- 13.62” Thonotosassa
- 13.13” Lakeland Airport
- 13.05” Plant City
- 13.05” Bradenton
- 12.78” Gulfport
- 12.52” Clearwater
- 12.32” Citrus Park
- 11.91” Riverview
- 11.73” Tampa Airport
- 11.63” Safety Harbor
- 11.40” Wesley Chapel
- 11.10” Tarpon Springs
- 10.44” Ruskin
- 10.28” Auburndale
- 9.67” Lithia
- 9.46” Spring Hill
- 9.07” Weeki Wachee
- 9.02” Elfers
- 8.15” Myakka Head
- 7.74” Floral City
- 7.58” Sarasota/Bradenton Airport
- 7.51” Homosassa
- 7.47” Wimauma
- 7.31” New Port Richey
- 7.17” Inverness
- 6.49” Brooksville Airport
- 6.48” Lecanto
- 4.77” Holder
- 4.60 Winter Haven Airport
Here’s an interactive rainfall map from around Florida.
These rains caused widespread river and urban flooding, particularly in Tampa Bay with record-high crests on the Hillsborough River: a crest of 38.16 feet at Morris Bridge on Oct. 12 and 17.14 feet near Zephyrhills at Hillsborough River State Park on Oct. 10.
TORNADOES
Milton caused a significant tornado outbreak over the southern and central portions of the Florida Peninsula on Oct. 9.
- Milton caused a significant tornado outbreak over the southern and central portions of the Florida Peninsula on Oct. 9
- 45 known tornadoes on land and a tornadic waterspout over Lake Okeechobee
- The outbreak included 3 EF3 tornadoes, 6 EF2 tornadoes, 25 EF1 tornadoes, 7 EF0 tornadoes and 4 tornadoes of unknown intensity.
- One of the EF3 tornadoes killed six people near Fort Pierce and Vero Beach.
- There were 14 known injuries associated with the tornadoes.
Here is an interactive map of the tornadoes produced by Hurricane Milton.
IMPACTS
Milton is currently known to be responsible for 15 direct deaths – 12 in the United States (all in Florida) and 3 in Mexico.
- Six people died due to the tornado near Fort Pierce and Vero Beach.
- Four people were killed by falling trees, while there were two deaths due to freshwater flooding.
Milton caused 27 indirect deaths in the United States, all in Florida.
Most of the deaths were due to health issues during storm preparations or post-storm clean-up or due to falls related to storm preparations, clean-up, or power failures.
Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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Spectrum News Staff
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What to know about the 2025 Atlantic hurricane names
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The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is just over a month away, and there is a list of new names to familiarize yourself with.
This year will follow up on a busy 2024 season where there were five landfalling hurricanes, three of which have had their names retired.
Researchers at Colorado State University are calling for above normal activity again this year, you can read more about the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season outlook here.
How and when are storms named?
A storm gets named when it achieves tropical storm status (winds of 39 mph or higher). It becomes a hurricane when winds reach 74 mph, but keeps the same name. In meteorology, any tropical storm or greater is referred to as a tropical cyclone.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) creates lists of names and cycles each list every six years. Each list contains 21 names, alternating between male and female names. A name may be retired if it is deemed too destructive by the WMO and they would add a new name to the list.
Here is the list of names that will be used this year. It was last used 6 years ago, in 2019. Dexter is new this year, replacing Dorian after it was retired for causing significant destruction in the Bahamas, Southeast U.S. and eastern Canada.
History of naming conventions
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), hundreds of years ago, tropical cyclones were named after Saint’s Day, which occurred nearest to the day of the storm. Consider, “Hurricane Santa Ana,” a violent storm that hit Puerto Rico on July 26, 1825.
Before 1950, storms were noted by their latitude and longitude. This proved problematic when trying to relay information to the public. It was confusing, so meteorologists streamlined this process using the phonetic alphabet to name the storms (Able, Baker, Charlie, etc.).
Starting in 1953, storms were given female names. Rumor has it that a member of the committee was angry at his wife and wanted to name a storm after her.
Whether that’s true, Alice was the first named storm of the 1953 season. All-female names continued until 1979, when male names were added to alternate within the list.
Greek names
Prior to 2021, after the 21 names were exhausted, the Greek alphabet was used. 2005 and 2020 were the only two seasons to feature the Greek alphabet.
However, this proved difficult for several reasons, including what would happen after a storm was so destructive the name should be retired, as was the case for Eta and Iota in 2020. Additionally, coronavirus variants use Greek letters, adding to possible confusion.
Supplemental list
To account for these issues, the WMO created a supplemental names list. This list featured another 21 names from A to W that alternate male and female names. This list will remain the same each year, only swapping out a name if it is retired.
Hurricane preparedness kit
Now is the time to reevaluate your hurricane preparedness kit. According to the Federal Emergency Management Agency, your kit should include, at a minimum:
- Water: one gallon per person, per day (3-day supply for evacuation, 2-week supply for home).
- Food: non-perishable, easy-to-prepare items (3-day supply for evacuation, 2-week supply for home).
- Flashlight.
- Battery-powered or hand-crank radio (NOAA Weather Radio, if possible).
- Extra batteries.
- First aid kit.
- Medications (7-day supply) and medical items.
- Multi-purpose tool, like a Swiss Army knife.
- Sanitation and personal hygiene items.
- Copies of personal documents (medication list and pertinent medical information, proof of address, deed/lease to home, passports, birth certificates, insurance policies).
- Cellphone with charger.
- Family and emergency contact information.
- Extra cash (ATMs might be inoperable).
- Extra fuel for generator and car.
Depending on your family’s requirements, you may need to include medical care items, baby supplies, pet supplies, and other things, such as extra car and house keys.
Additional supplies might include towels, plastic sheeting, duct tape, scissors and work gloves.
Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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Meteorologist Reid Lybarger, Meteorologist Stacy Lynn
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