PEMBROKE PARK, Fla. – The National Hurricane Center has issued tropical storm watches for portions of the Leeward Islands as forecasters monitor Potential Tropical Cyclone Five.
This is forecast to develop into a tropical storm by the time we head into Monday, with wind speeds at 40 miles per hour.
It is forecast to move over the Leeward Islands and then turn towards the north, strengthening into a category two hurricane with wind speeds upwards of 110 mph.
Computer models are in good agreement that a Bermuda high is likely to turn the system north, away from South Florida.
Some indirect impacts for South Florida will be an increase in wave heights and the rip current threats picking up as we head through the middle and the end of this week.
Copyright 2024 by WPLG Local10.com – All rights reserved.
RICHMOND, Texas – When a hurricane is eyeing up the Texas Gulf Coast, we all want to know the most up-to-date information every single minute.
Technology has given us the resources to do just that. But at the same time, that same technology could be used to spread misinformation just as fast as real updates.
Social media started a fire of misinformation, allowing anyone to post just about anything. It could be true or it could be false.
Now, with advancements in artificial intelligence, it’s becoming harder to sort through what’s fake and what’s real.
The introduction of Deepfakes just poured jet fuel on that fire.
Defining Deepfakes
Deepfake (n) – an image or recording that has been convincingly altered and manipulated to misrepresent someone as doing or saying something that was not actually done or said
That’s the official definition from the Merriam-Webster dictionary.
To learn a little more, we lean on the experts at the University of Virginia.
“A deepfake is an artificial image or video (a series of images) generated by a special kind of machine learning called “deep” learning (hence the name). There two overviews of how deepfakes work in this article: one for the layperson, and one for the technically-minded,” the university shared online. “Deep learning is similar to any kind of machine learning, where an algorithm is fed examples and learns to produce output that resembles the examples it learned from. Humans learn the same way; a baby might try eating random objects, and it quickly discovers what’s edible and what isn’t.”
You Might Use Deepfake Technology Everyday
That’s right. The technology that fits in the palm of your hand and lives in your pocket is the same type of tech behind deepfakes.
Apps like Face Swap, filters on Instagram and Snapchat and apps that alter your voice or allow you to type text and have your voice say the words are all examples of the machine learning that’s used to create deepfakes.
“They kind of do it now. It’s kind of like a joke,” said Ariana Elias of Stafford.
The difference is the complexity of the machine learning.
A simple app like Face Swap doesn’t use a lot of resources.
Meanwhile, creating a video of someone saying something they never did is a very resource intensive process.
Deepfakes During Dangerous Situations
Deciphering between a deepfake and what’s real can be really difficult. And here’s the real problem: it’s only going to get harder.
During an emergency situation, like a hurricane or other natural disaster, taking the time to analyze a piece of information, for example a statement from a press conference held by the local emergency management office, could mean evacuating before a storm hits or staying put.
“I am actually really, really concerned about that on many levels,” said Roderi Holmes of Stafford.
It’s that exact fear that presents a new challenge for Fort Bend County Emergency Management Coordinator Greg Babst.
He’s no stranger to the danger deepfakes pose to the community. But it wasn’t until a recent training conference that he first hand got to experience a deepfake of himself.
“One of the cyber analysts came in there and they basically took my information,” Babst explains. “During the end of the conference. They were able to put up their presentation and using AI and only an hour of time, that person was able to grab my face off of social media, was able to grab my voice over from press conferences and whatnot that I’ve done in the past on social media from our sites, and then put that capability with AI and putting me in an emergency operation center and telling people to evacuate.”
It’s that very experience that opened a whole new vulnerability to getting life-saving information out fast, but also accurately.
Gage Goulding: “Was that experience eye opening for you?”
Greg Babst: “Yes. I honestly knew it was out there. I didn’t know that it could be that almost that real.”
Don’t Be Afraid, Be Aware
During a time of emergency, a deepfake video of someone like Babst, a mayor, governor or county judge could put potentially life-threatening or deadly misinformation out into the world.
You shouldn’t be scared of the world, but instead don’t take everything at face value until you investigate the source and ensure it’s coming from a trusted, vetted place.
“Know your sources, vet those sources and then continue to follow those exact sources,” Babst said.
Copyright 2024 by KPRC Click2Houston – All rights reserved.
Tropical Storm Debby is moving north after dropping huge amounts of rain on parts of the Southeast. President Biden has authorized emergency declarations from the governors of Florida, Georgia and South Carolina. CBS News correspondent Cristian Benavides has the latest from Savannah, Georgia.
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Hurricane Debby washes $1 million in cocaine onto Florida beach
Updated: 1:54 AM PDT Aug 6, 2024
Hurricane Debby washed 70 pounds of cocaine ashore on a Florida beach over the weekend.According to Chief Patrol Agent Samuel Briggs II, the cocaine was split among 25 packages and washed ashore in the Florida Keys on Islamorada. The island is approximately 80 miles east of Key West, but the exact location was not disclosed.The drugs were discovered by what the chief is calling a Good Samaritan after they contacted authorities to report the find. The street value of the cocaine is estimated at more than $1 million.Debby was a depression at the time it passed west of the Florida Keys. It later became a tropical storm west of Southwest Florida, followed by strengthening to Category 1 before landfall in the Big Bend region of Florida.
ISLAMORADA, Fla. —
Hurricane Debby washed 70 pounds of cocaine ashore on a Florida beach over the weekend.
According to Chief Patrol Agent Samuel Briggs II, the cocaine was split among 25 packages and washed ashore in the Florida Keys on Islamorada. The island is approximately 80 miles east of Key West, but the exact location was not disclosed.
The drugs were discovered by what the chief is calling a Good Samaritan after they contacted authorities to report the find.
The street value of the cocaine is estimated at more than $1 million.
Debby was a depression at the time it passed west of the Florida Keys. It later became a tropical storm west of Southwest Florida, followed by strengthening to Category 1 before landfall in the Big Bend region of Florida.
Hurricane Debby brought more than powerful winds and storm surge to Florida — packages of cocaine worth more than $1 million also made landfall, officials said, marking the latest in a string of recent discoveries of drugs along Florida shores.
Debby, which slammed into the state as a Category 1 hurricane but has since been downgraded to a tropical storm, washed the drugs ashore in the Florida Keys, U.S. Border Patrol acting chief patrol Agent Samuel Briggs II wrote on social media.
“Hurricane Debby blew 25 packages of cocaine (70 lbs.) onto a beach in the Florida Keys,” Briggs wrote, posting two images of the packages.
“Hurricane Debby blew 25 packages of cocaine (70 lbs.) onto a beach in the Florida Keys,” U.S. Border Patrol acting chief patrol Agent Samuel Briggs II wrote on social media.
U.S. Border Patrol acting chief patrol Agent Samuel Briggs II
Briggs said the trove of drugs, which has a street value of more than $1 million, was found by a good Samaritan who contacted the authorities.
Cocaine has been found on numerous occasions on and near the shores of Florida, which is not far from Caribbean transit hubs for drugs being trafficked from South America to the U.S. and Europe.
In June, recreational boaters off the coast of the Florida Keys found 65 pounds of cocaine floating in the ocean, Briggs said.
Earlier that month, divers found 25 kilograms of cocaine about 100 feet underwater off Key West. The very next day, the same amount of suspected cocaine was found washed up on Dauphin Island, Alabama.
In May, a beachgoer found about $1 million worth of cocaine washed up along the Florida Keys, CBS News Miami reported.
In 2023, packages of cocaine worth more than $100,000 washed up on several Florida beaches. Also last year, Tampa Mayor Jane Castor, while on a fishing trip with her family, reeled in 70 pounds of cocaine.
In 2019, bricks of cocaine were discovered on two beaches after Hurricane Dorian lashed the Florida coast.
Stephen Smith is a managing editor for CBSNews.com based in New York. A Washington, D.C. native, Steve was previously an editorial producer for the Washington Post, and has also worked in Los Angeles, Boston and Tokyo.
FLAGLER BEACH, Fla. – While Central Florida’s coast didn’t take a direct hit from Hurricane Debby, the storm surge and ocean were pretty rough. So much so that Flagler Beach residents on Monday woke up to a 6-foot cliff in the sand along the ocean shore.
The Army Corps of Engineers and Flagler County have been working on a dredging project and using the sand to reinforce the dunes and widen the beaches. The sand used for the project partially washed back into the ocean along the stretch where the cliff appeared.
The strong storm surge on top of high tide was likely to blame, according to the county. But Flagler County officials said the project worked as it should.
They said the extra sand provided a larger barrier for the dunes and State Road A1A and will likely wash back up later.
“As the waves are larger and more erosive along the coast, the sand will be transported slightly offshore to break the waves further away from the coastline,” Flagler’s Coastal Engineering Administrator Ansley Wren-Key wrote. “It is a natural process of how the beach protects the dunes and infrastructure behind it.”
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Copyright 2024 by WKMG ClickOrlando – All rights reserved.
Debby has weakened into a tropical storm again as it continues to push inland over the Florida Panhandle. Debby made landfall near Steinhatchee, Fla., early on Monday, Aug. 5 as a Category 1 hurricane. It will continue to move inland in the Southeast U.S.
Debby strengthened into the second hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. It formed into a tropical storm on Saturday, Aug. 3, and became a hurricane on Sunday, Aug. 4. Debby is the fourth named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
What You Need To Know
Debby is a tropical storm
It made landfall near Steinhatchee, Fla. on Monday, Aug. 5, as a Category 1 hurricane
It’s forecast to stall out and bring heavy rainfall to the Southeast U.S.
Debby is weakening as it pushes inland. It’s a tropical storm with max winds of 50 mph and is slowly moving northeast. It moved inland along Florida’s Big Bend coast near Steinhatchee and made landfall as a Category 1 hurricane with max winds of 80 mph early on Monday morning.
The track of Debby has it moving across the northern Sunshine State, then moving back over the Atlantic where it will scrape the southeastern coast. It looks to stall along the Southeast coast for several days, bringing inches to possibly feet of rain to the region.
Tropical Storm Warning
St. Augustine, Florida to South Santee River South Carolina
Storm Surge Warning
Georgia and South Carolina coast from the Mouth of the St. Mary’s River to South Santee River South Carolina
Debby looks to cross the northern part of Florida and eventually it will slow down to a crawl. This would bring days of rain to the coastal Southeast for areas from Savannah to Charleston.
Areas of flash flooding are possible through the week. The highest rainfall totals will be in parts of coastal Georgia and South Carolina, where significant flooding is expected.
There is a high risk of excessive rainfall for the next three days.
Rainfall totals will climb up to 12 to 15 inches this week with locally higher totals possible
Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
Savannah Mayor Van R. Johnson II tells CBS News that Hurricane Debby could unleash as much as 30 inches of rain in some areas in the coming days – an amount in many areas that “means obliteration,” Johnson said, adding, “It is forecast to be a historic event for Savannah.”
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Tropical Storm Debby is now forecast to rapidly intensify into a hurricane before it makes landfall in Florida’s Big Bend region and bring potentially historic amounts of rainfall to parts of the Southeast, due to near-record warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico.
Authorities in Florida and Georgia are urging residents to prepare as the storm makes its way through the Gulf, with Debby now expected to undergo rapid intensification, which occurs when a storm’s top-end winds increase 35 mph in 24 hours. It could become a hurricane by Sunday evening after being upgraded to a tropical storm a day prior, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Authorities in Florida and Georgia are urging residents to prepare as the storm makes its way through the near-record-warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico.
Debby has sustained winds of 65 mph – up 30 mph from a day ago – and is located about 130 miles west-southwest of Tampa, Florida, according to the National Hurricane Center’s 11 a.m. ET Sunday update, warning that the threats of heavy rain and storm surge could lead to flooding in Florida, Georgia and South Carolina in the coming days.
Hurricane conditions are expected to arrive by Monday morning, with the outer bands of the storm system making their way on shore during the day Sunday. The storm is forecast to reach the coast of Florida’s Big Bend early Monday, at which point Debby is expected to then crawl across northern Florida and southern Georgia throughout the day and into Tuesday, the hurricane center said.
The main threat will be flooding, both from storm surges up to 10 feet and heavy rainfall. Freshwater flooding, which is caused by rainfall, has become the deadliest aspect of tropical systems in the last decade, according to research conducted by the National Hurricane Center – a threat made more dangerous as the world warms from fossil fuel pollution.
The strengthening storm tracking up the Florida Peninsula’s western coast prompted county and state officials to issue a string of voluntary and mandatory evacuation orders as the hurricane center posted hurricane watches and warnings across several parts of the state, including near Tampa and the Big Bend region.
Tropical storm and storm surge watches have also been issued for coastal Georgia and parts of South Carolina. The cities of Savannah, Georgia, and Charleston, South Carolina, could both see a month’s worth of rain in a single day – and perhaps even an entire summer’s worth of rain over the course of the storm.
A tornado watch has also been issued for much of the Florida Peninsula and parts of southern Georgia until Sunday night, covering more than 13 million people, including the cities of Tallahassee, Jacksonville, Tampa, and Orlando.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp have declared states of emergency for their states in advance of the storm’s arrival. DeSantis on Sunday said in a news conference that he’d activated the Florida National Guard so it would be poised to assist with humanitarian needs as well as search and rescue.
DeSantis called on residents to finish their preparations and to brace for power outages, “particularly in parts of the state like here in Tallahassee.”
“There’s going to be a lot of trees that are going to fall down. You’re going to have debris. You are going to have power interruption,” the governor said, “so just prepare for that.”
President Joe Biden on Sunday approved a disaster declaration for Florida, the White House announced, authorizing federal resources to respond to any disaster relief efforts.
The slower Debby moves and the longer it sits over warm waters, the more likely the storm is to intensify. Studies have shown tropical systems are slowing down over time, making them more likely to produce greater rainfall totals over a given area.
Oceans are also getting warmer and supercharging storms, pumping them full of moisture. A 2022 study published in the journal Nature Communications found climate change increased hourly rainfall rates in tropical storms by 5 to 10% and in hurricanes by 8 to 11%.
“Conditions are favorable for strengthening over the Gulf of Mexico with warm sea surface temperatures and light shear. Intensification is likely to be slow during the first 12-24 hours, then proceed at a faster rate after the cyclone develops an organized inner core,” the National Hurricane Center said of Debby.
By early Monday, Debby is expected to move into the Apalachee Bay area of Florida as it moves northward over the Gulf, according to the Weather Prediction Center.
The Apalachee Bay area, which includes parts of Taylor, Jefferson, Wakulla, and Franklin counties, can expect to get drenched with heavy rain from Debby on Sunday, increasing the possibility of flash flooding in several spots, the hurricane center said.
In the meantime, county officials have urged residents in communities along Florida’s Gulf Coast to evacuate ahead of the storm. Mandatory evacuation orders are in effect for parts of Franklin, Citrus and Levy counties, with voluntary orders issued in Hernando, Taylor and Pasco counties.
“I am worried about the aftermath and seeing how much damage we get (and) how we are going to fix it,” Sue Colson, the mayor of Cedar Key in Levy County, told CNN Sunday. The city sits on the island of Way Key in the Gulf of Mexico, about four miles off the coast. She cited high amounts of anticipated rain as well as the threat of storm surge.
“That is always concerning when you are a low-lying island in the middle of the Gulf,” she said.
On Saturday, Florida Highway Patrol knocked on doors to tell residents to consider leaving, Colson said. Residents were continuing to finish their preparations on Sunday morning.
“I think everybody needs to make wise decisions for themselves and not endanger others by endangering yourself,” she said. “If you’re endangering yourself, you are endangering others, because then they have to rescue you.”
Heavy rain could linger for days
As a slow-moving Debby churns along the Georgia-Carolina coastline heading into the new week, it could lead to seemingly endless amounts of rain for days, with totals potentially reaching over 2 feet.
The heaviest rain amounts could even top 30 inches or more, depending on how long Debby meanders, with some forecast models showing the storm could linger through at least Thursday. “This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with significant river flooding expected,” the National Hurricane Center said.
Such exceptional rainfall would challenge state records for rain from a tropical cyclone: In Georgia, the record is 27.85 inches from 1994’s Alberto, while South Carolina’s record is 23.63 inches from Florence in 2018.
A warmer atmosphere holds more moisture and can dump heavier rain. Warmer oceans can fuel stronger hurricanes, packing a punch with higher storm surge thanks to sea-level rise.
With an uptick in the intensity forecast comes an increase in forecasted storm surge, which occurs when ocean water is pushed inland by the onshore winds of a hurricane. Storm surge flooding above ground could rise to 6 to 10 feet along Florida’s Big Bend, and coastal Georgia and South Carolina could see surges reach 2 to 4 feet.
Tampa Bay is expecting 2 to 4 feet of storm surge. Marco Island and other areas of southwest Florida will see 1 to 3 feet of storm surge.
Warmer air and ocean temperatures fueled by human-induced climate change can lead to wetter tropical systems.
The North Florida region nestled between the Panhandle and the rest of the state’s peninsula took a devastating hit last August from Category 3 Hurricane Idalia, and now faces a new threat from Debby.
The-CNN-Wire & 2024 Cable News Network, Inc., a Warner Bros. Discovery Company. All rights reserved.
Tropical Storm Debby is now forecast to rapidly intensify into a hurricane before it makes landfall in Florida’s Big Bend region and bring potentially historic amounts of rainfall to parts of the Southeast, due to near-record warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico.
Authorities in Florida and Georgia are urging residents to prepare as the storm makes its way through the Gulf, with Debby now expected to undergo rapid intensification, which occurs when a storm’s top-end winds increase 35 mph in 24 hours. It could become a hurricane by Sunday evening after being upgraded to a tropical storm a day prior, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Debby has sustained winds of 65 mph – up 30 mph from a day ago – and is located about 130 miles west-southwest of Tampa, Florida, according to the National Hurricane Center’s 11 a.m. ET Sunday update, warning that the threats of heavy rain and storm surge could lead to flooding in Florida, Georgia and South Carolina in the coming days.
Hurricane conditions are expected to arrive by Monday morning, with the outer bands of the storm system making their way on shore during the day Sunday. The storm is forecast to reach the coast of Florida’s Big Bend early Monday, at which point Debby is expected to then crawl across northern Florida and southern Georgia throughout the day and into Tuesday, the hurricane center said.
The main threat will be flooding, both from storm surges up to 10 feet and heavy rainfall. Freshwater flooding, which is caused by rainfall, has become the deadliest aspect of tropical systems in the last decade, according to research conducted by the National Hurricane Center – a threat made more dangerous as the world warms from fossil fuel pollution.
The strengthening storm tracking up the Florida Peninsula’s western coast prompted county and state officials to issue a string of voluntary and mandatory evacuation orders as the hurricane center posted hurricane watches and warnings across several parts of the state, including near Tampa and the Big Bend region.
Tropical storm and storm surge watches have also been issued for coastal Georgia and parts of South Carolina. The cities of Savannah, Georgia, and Charleston, South Carolina, could both see a month’s worth of rain in a single day – and perhaps even an entire summer’s worth of rain over the course of the storm.
A tornado watch has also been issued for much of the Florida Peninsula and parts of southern Georgia until Sunday night, covering more than 13 million people, including the cities of Tallahassee, Jacksonville, Tampa, and Orlando.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp have declared states of emergency for their states in advance of the storm’s arrival. DeSantis on Sunday said in a news conference that he’d activated the Florida National Guard so it would be poised to assist with humanitarian needs as well as search and rescue.
DeSantis called on residents to finish their preparations and to brace for power outages, “particularly in parts of the state like here in Tallahassee.”
“There’s going to be a lot of trees that are going to fall down. You’re going to have debris. You are going to have power interruption,” the governor said, “so just prepare for that.”
President Joe Biden on Sunday approved a disaster declaration for Florida, the White House announced, authorizing federal resources to respond to any disaster relief efforts.
The slower Debby moves and the longer it sits over warm waters, the more likely the storm is to intensify. Studies have shown tropical systems are slowing down over time, making them more likely to produce greater rainfall totals over a given area.
Oceans are also getting warmer and supercharging storms, pumping them full of moisture. A 2022 study published in the journal Nature Communications found climate change increased hourly rainfall rates in tropical storms by 5 to 10% and in hurricanes by 8 to 11%.
“Conditions are favorable for strengthening over the Gulf of Mexico with warm sea surface temperatures and light shear. Intensification is likely to be slow during the first 12-24 hours, then proceed at a faster rate after the cyclone develops an organized inner core,” the National Hurricane Center said of Debby.
By early Monday, Debby is expected to move into the Apalachee Bay area of Florida as it moves northward over the Gulf, according to the Weather Prediction Center.
The Apalachee Bay area, which includes parts of Taylor, Jefferson, Wakulla, and Franklin counties, can expect to get drenched with heavy rain from Debby on Sunday, increasing the possibility of flash flooding in several spots, the hurricane center said.
In the meantime, county officials have urged residents in communities along Florida’s Gulf Coast to evacuate ahead of the storm. Mandatory evacuation orders are in effect for parts of Franklin, Citrus and Levy counties, with voluntary orders issued in Hernando, Taylor and Pasco counties.
“I am worried about the aftermath and seeing how much damage we get (and) how we are going to fix it,” Sue Colson, the mayor of Cedar Key in Levy County, told CNN Sunday. The city sits on the island of Way Key in the Gulf of Mexico, about four miles off the coast. She cited high amounts of anticipated rain as well as the threat of storm surge.
“That is always concerning when you are a low-lying island in the middle of the Gulf,” she said.
On Saturday, Florida Highway Patrol knocked on doors to tell residents to consider leaving, Colson said. Residents were continuing to finish their preparations on Sunday morning.
“I think everybody needs to make wise decisions for themselves and not endanger others by endangering yourself,” she said. “If you’re endangering yourself, you are endangering others, because then they have to rescue you.”
Heavy rain could linger for days
As a slow-moving Debby churns along the Georgia-Carolina coastline heading into the new week, it could lead to seemingly endless amounts of rain for days, with totals potentially reaching over 2 feet.
The heaviest rain amounts could even top 30 inches or more, depending on how long Debby meanders, with some forecast models showing the storm could linger through at least Thursday. “This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with significant river flooding expected,” the National Hurricane Center said.
Such exceptional rainfall would challenge state records for rain from a tropical cyclone: In Georgia, the record is 27.85 inches from 1994’s Alberto, while South Carolina’s record is 23.63 inches from Florence in 2018.
A warmer atmosphere holds more moisture and can dump heavier rain. Warmer oceans can fuel stronger hurricanes, packing a punch with higher storm surge thanks to sea-level rise.
With an uptick in the intensity forecast comes an increase in forecasted storm surge, which occurs when ocean water is pushed inland by the onshore winds of a hurricane. Storm surge flooding above ground could rise to 6 to 10 feet along Florida’s Big Bend, and coastal Georgia and South Carolina could see surges reach 2 to 4 feet.
Tampa Bay is expecting 2 to 4 feet of storm surge. Marco Island and other areas of southwest Florida will see 1 to 3 feet of storm surge.
Warmer air and ocean temperatures fueled by human-induced climate change can lead to wetter tropical systems.
The North Florida region nestled between the Panhandle and the rest of the state’s peninsula took a devastating hit last August from Category 3 Hurricane Idalia, and now faces a new threat from Debby.
The-CNN-Wire & 2024 Cable News Network, Inc., a Warner Bros. Discovery Company. All rights reserved.
Beginning last Wednesday we began previewing the possibility of development of a tropical disturbance nearing the Caribbean islands for this week and in Friday morning’s newsletter we discussed a more conducive configuration for development once the disturbance moves into the western Atlantic later this week.
By Friday afternoon, NHC added this area to its tropical weather outlook and now indicates a tropical depression could form by middle to late week as the disturbance approaches the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, or the southeastern Bahamas.
The good news for our Caribbean friends is we’re not expecting quick development and none of our forecast models suggests a significant threat, even if the system develops before reaching the islands. In general, we can expect squally weather to blow through the northeastern Caribbean islands from early Wednesday into Friday.
It’s not until the system nears the Bahamas late Friday into Saturday that conditions could become a little more ripe for development. Models suggest the potential for further development, but it’s by no means a slam dunk.
Factors working against development
For regular readers of the newsletter, it’s no secret the Atlantic has been blanketed by dry and dusty conditions in recent weeks. The Saharan dust is still hanging around, especially in the eastern Atlantic, where it’s limiting storminess.
Saharan Air Layer or SAL with warmer colors indicating drier air. The disturbance tagged by the National Hurricane Center is indicated by the yellow “X”. Credit: University of Wisconsin CIMSS.
The tropical wave that’ll be a key ingredient in the development recipe can be tracked on satellite, but swirls harmlessly through the eastern Atlantic for now with not so much as a pinch of rain. Sinking air across this part of the basin should appreciably limit thunderstorm activity associated with the disturbance for at least the next day or two.
The system is also moving quickly for now – at speeds of 25 to 30 mph – which is generally a limiting factor for development. It’s expected to slow down once it reaches the islands later this week, however, which would give it a better chance at organizing.
Factors favoring development
The Atlantic will be at an inflection point by the weekend as the calendar turns to August. Rising air will begin to move in from the eastern Pacific, where it’s expected to spawn an outbreak of storms for the first time this season. As we discussed last Thursday, just how busy the Pacific side gets this week will affect the timing of the Atlantic’s reawakening.
While a busier eastern Pacific could limit the Atlantic’s potential over the next week or so, the rising air moving in will begin to promote storminess over the Gulf and western Atlantic that’s been shut off by sinking air in the wake of Beryl earlier this month. This should ignite more thunderstorm activity near the system by late week as it approaches the Bahamas.
So far this season, hostile wind shear across the deep tropics has been running well below average but over the past few weeks has ticked up noticeably.
As the system moves north of the islands by late week, upper-level winds may turn slightly more conducive to development, though modest wind shear may remain, limiting strengthening.
Waters remain at record or near record values throughout the potential development area outlined by NHC so that’s certainly not a limiting factor for the disturbance.
Is this a threat to Florida?
At this stage, our forecast models suggest only limited development odds with the Atlantic headed into its transition period. That said, odds favor an organized tropical system in the vicinity of Florida and the Bahamas come Saturday into Sunday, so we’ll want to monitor the forecast trends this week.
The various scenarios depicted by our more reliable global models show a weak tropical system largely turning near or east of Florida this weekend.
Forecast low pressure tracks from the overnight run of the European forecast model ensemble system through Sunday morning advertising a weak tropical system turning north near the Bahamas this weekend. Credit: Weathernerds.org.
Until we have a defined low-pressure center, however, take the early model guidance with a grain of salt. Forecasts are notoriously uncertain without a defined circulation. We’ll need to wait to see how the pieces come together over the next few days before having more confidence in what effect, if any, this could have on Florida.
For now, check back periodically this week. I’ll have the latest updates on TV and in our daily newsletter discussions each morning. It’s almost August, so it’s a good habit to check in a little more frequently regardless.
Copyright 2024 by WPLG Local10.com – All rights reserved.
ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — As the peak of hurricane season approaches, Tampa Bay residents can pick up free hurricane supplies in St. Petersburg on Thursday.
Rebuilding Together is holding a hurricane supply giveaway on July 11 from 3 p.m. to 5 p.m. at their St. Pete office, 1350 22nd St. South.
Residents will pull through the parking lot for a drive-thru style giveaway and pick up a large Home Depot bucket containing cleaning supplies, tarps, bug spray, bungee cords, safety gear, scissors, sanitizing wipes, a large flashlight and more. Supplies will be available on a first-come, first-serve basis until they run out.
Need hurricane supplies?
Rebuilding Together to give away hurricane supply kit on July 11 from 3 p.m. to 5 p.m.
The event will be held at 1350 22nd St. South in St. Pete while supplies last
A second giveaway will take place on July 18 in Tampa
Brandy Canada, chief operating officer of Rebuilding Together, said state and local partners, along with Home Depot, made the giveaway possible.
Rebuilding Together repaired over 1,000 homes damaged by storms since Hurricane Ian ripped through the state in 2022, while also focusing on storm preparation.
Through their work, Canada said her team has a good eye for what the most necessary hurricane prep supplies are and included those items in the free kits.
Rebuilding Together is handing out FREE hurricane supplies this afternoon in St. Pete @BN9
– 1350 22nd St S – 3-5 p.m. – First come, first served basis – Until supplies last – Drive-through style giveaway – Kits are packed with all types of hurricane prep items pic.twitter.com/FMy2yrCP9y
HOUSTON – Hurricane Beryl’s power outages in the Houston area are historic for CenterPoint, according to Jason Ryan, Executive Vice President of Regulatory Services and Government Affairs. And fueled by “unprecedented extreme weather” including not just Beryl, but freezes, drought and rain that have all contributed to conditions that caused debris — entire trees and limbs — to bring down or damage power lines.
In a live and exclusive interview with KPRC 2′s Gage Goulding this afternoon, Ryan said the amount of help they brought in was unprecedented too. on Wednesday, 11-thousand workers were out on 16-hour shifts, restoring power and making repairs.
Ryan — who said he also has no power — expects the company to reach its goal of restoring power for one million customers by the end of Wednesday, as promised.
What’s up with the outage tracker?
“So the outage tracker map that we put up, last night is still a temporary fix that shows kind of in groups where you are in our restoration process. We will update that map three times a day at noon, at 4 p.m., 8 p.m.,” Ryan said.
Starting Thursday, CenterPoint will also give customers estimated restoration times. That should help us all get a better handle on how long it will take to get power restored to most folks.
The company’s outage tracker crashed with more than 900,000 outages during May’s derecho and the company told everyone a new, better tool was coming.
“But we are bringing a completely new, outage tracker map that will be able to withstand the significant traffic that we saw during the derecho. It was that significant traffic on the map that brought that site down. We knew if we put that same site back up, it would not meet customer expectations this go-around either. So that’s why we came up with the outage map that we put out yesterday. We will continue to refine the information on that map and provide estimated restoration times starting tomorrow,” Ryan told Goulding. The new outage tracker was supposed to be ready by the end of this month, but Ryan didn’t have a date for the rollout.
More than a million customers were still without power in the Houston metro area Wednesday night after Hurricane Beryl’s destructive wind.
Transcript from the full interview:
Gage Goulding: Thank you so much. I know you’re incredibly busy. You and your entire team. On behalf of Houston, we thank you for all the hard work the men and women here at CenterPoint are doing. First and foremost, how are you and your team? Is everybody okay and safe?
Jason Ryan: We are. And you know, I want to start out by thanking our customers for their patience. We’re about 48 hours since the hurricane left the greater Houston area. And our team has performed well. We’ve had no serious injuries or fatalities. Very proud of that. Especially with the more than 10,000 additional resources that we brought in from other utilities. They’re not used to being in Houston. they’re working in dangerous conditions. And so, the men and women in the field are safe and super proud of them.
Gage Goulding: And that’s a staggering number. So let’s start there. I met, I think, of a crew as far away from Wheeling, West Virginia that I, whenever I was out and I worked in Wheeling, West Virginia, many moons ago. And I was just so shocked that they were here so quickly. And I believe the number was 12,000 people out working to restore power. Have you ever had an activation of that size before, or is this kind of historic proportions, if you will.
Jason Ryan: So we’ve never had this many customers out from a storm before. 2.26 million customers out at the height of the storm. so as a result of that unprecedented outage number, we needed to have an unprecedented response. So we brought those crews in as soon as it was safe to bring them into Houston, and got them to work. There are more than 11,000 people working on the system today.
Gage Goulding: 11,000?
Jason Ryan: Yes.
Gage Goulding: So let’s talk about that. That was an incredible goal of a million people restored by the end of today. Are you confident? Are we going to reach that?
Jason Ryan: Yes, we’re on track to reach that. We, restored 918,000 customers as of 1:00 today. So we’re on track to hit that million customer mark. Our crews are working 16 hour days. And we’re going to work non-stop around the clock until we get all of our customers back on. But we are confident in hitting, our goal for today.
Gage Goulding: So we put an article up earlier asking our KPRC 2 Insiders to, you know, give us some questions that they want to ask you if they can be in the hot seat with you right now. One of the questions was, and we saw some crews, you know, just in a parking lot. “There’s crews down the street for me, there in a parking lot. They’re not working. What are they doing?” Is that a shift waiting to go on? You know, what are these? How does that all work?
Jason Ryan: It could be a number of things. It could be them documenting the work that they’ve done so far. It could be them getting additional directions for the work they need to do. You know, some of these crews, they get on site. Based on the assessment that they’ve done, that we’ve done, they may need additional information before they can get started working. Again. 10,000 plus of these personnel are not CenterPoint energy employees. They need to understand the standards to which we have to build our system. They need to understand how high the clearances for the lines need to be to comply with local ordinances. So they may be getting that additional information before they start their work. Or they may be, recording the work that’s been done to date so that we can get those outage numbers constantly updated. You know, so there are a number of reasons why they may be, idle for a minute. They may also be on break. We know our customers are hot. The men and women doing this work are hot. So they are taking breaks. They are rehydrating. So that may be another reason why you see, the crews not actively working, but they are out there working.
Gage Goulding: What are some of the biggest problems that you’re dealing with right now? Is it you know, what we saw during the May storm? Transmission lines down. Is it vegetation? What are some of the biggest obstacles out there?
Jason Ryan: Yeah. So unlike that storm, unlike, Harvey before it, this is not a storm that caused material problems on our transmission system. The transmission system of the big poles and wires that move power across the state. We didn’t have material damage to the transmission system. We didn’t have material damage to our substations. Our substations didn’t flood, like they did during Harvey. This is a distribution system challenge. It is the poles and the wires that go from the substations to your home or business. That’s the distribution system. And it’s largely debris on that distribution system. It could be entire trees, that have fallen over. It could be limbs that have fallen over. You know, we’ve gone through significant freezes, significant drought, significant rain, unprecedented, extreme weather conditions on our large trees here in Houston. You’ve got large canopies without mature root systems and so that’s why you see entire trees coming over onto our infrastructure. So it is a vegetation tree problem on the distribution system. Our personnel as of the end of the day yesterday had walked 4,500 miles of distribution lines to assess the problem so they can assign the right crews to do the right work. You know before we can send the right crews out, we need to know do we need to send a construction crew out a large construction crew to rebuild the poles and the wires? Do we need to send a vegetation crew out to remove trees, or do we need to send a smaller crew out, to rework smaller parts of the distribution system? Knowing which crews to send out is the reason we do that assessment work in the first 48 hours.
Gage Goulding: And we we talked about, brought it up to the ratio back in May. That put quite a strain, actually, believe it or not, June 7 is when we did that interview. Fast forward a month to the day is whenever Beryl was about to make landfall. So just very ironic. And, you know, we talked back then about how during Ike, CenterPoint had 12 days to get, you know, ready to brace for it in duration. You had no time.
Jason Ryan: 15 minutes. Yeah.
Gage Goulding: How much time did you, you know, realize that? This is going to this is going to impact us and our customers.
Jason Ryan: eah. So we started watching this storm nine days out. And as everybody knows, at that time, it wasn’t looking like it was coming to Texas. Obviously, as the days got closer to Monday, that started to change. It really started to change over the weekend. When it was more clear that it was going to hit the Houston area. So we, lined up 3,000 mutual aid resources to come into Houston before the weekend. As it became more clear that this storm was going to have a direct hit on us, that’s when we increased the number of people that we asked for. And that’s where the, greater than 10,000 crews came in to play when it was clear that the storm was going to hit right here.
Gage Goulding: And one of the things that we talked about in depth that there’s already changed from the derecho to now was the outage tracker. And I, I want to quote our interview that we had. You said,”We didn’t meet customer expectations when that wasn’t available, when they needed it most. It’s not acceptable to us or our customers.” And this is what really stuck with me, “We know that we will not have that grace from our customers and communities to miss it again.”
Jason Ryan: That’s right.
Gage Goulding: The new outage tracker. You promised a new outage tracker in maybe a little bit quicker than you would have wanted to try it out. Are you happy with the new outage tracker? And is this the solution to make sure people are informed? [16:07:42][37.4]
Jason Ryan: So the outage tracker map that we put up, last night is still a temporary fix that shows kind of in groups where you are in our restoration process. We will update that map three times a day at noon, at 4 p.m., 8 p.m. We will update it three times a day. Starting tomorrow, we will have estimated restoration times. That’s more granular than what you see there today. That is still a temporary fix.
We are starting completely from scratch with a new outage map, that we unfortunately were aiming for the end of this month in advance of the typical hurricane, peak of hurricane season, right? August. September.
But we are bringing a completely new, outage tracker map that will be able to withstand the significant traffic that we saw during the derecho. It was that significant traffic on the map that brought that site down. We knew if we put that same site back up, it would not meet customer expectations this go-around either. So that’s why we came up with the outage map that we put out yesterday. We will continue to refine the information on that map and provide estimated restoration times starting tomorrow.
Gage Goulding: Another thing we talked about back in June, and it seems like such a long time ago, but in the broader, you know, business, there really isn’t. We talked about the supplies because that’s our concern back then was how does how did that the Rachel affect hurricane season where you have all your stock built up. And I remember you telling me that, you know, you said I can’t lie to you. We’re trying to get everything put back together. Were you able to replenish your stock in time, or are you facing any supply chain issues or we need more poles and we can’t get them?
Jason Ryan: We don’t have any material challenges with our supply right now. We did replenish that over the course of the last month plus, since the derecho. So we are not having supply issues, causing delays and restoration.
Gage Goulding: If I have no power, I see my neighbors still have it. I think there’s a lot of people. The number one question I get is, you know, when is you know, 77098 coming on when it was like a zip code or something like that, right. What can you tell people? Yeah. After. And I get it, I don’t have power either at home right now. It was a very uncomfortable sleep last night.
Jason Ryan: Same.
Gage Goulding: So you don’t have power, right?
Jason Ryan: Right. That’s right.
Gage Goulding: So even even one of the top dog doesn’t have that happen. So you’re you’re with us, you know, and I’m sure you’re wondering when is that beautiful white truck going to come down and fix my stuff. What can you offer to the CenterPoint customers and people of Houston to just help us get through this? You know what we dig For any information, what would you offer?
Jason Ryan: So, we know that customers want to understand the process. So yesterday we put out a visual of the process. It’s a five step process, right? It starts with our preparation post-storm. It starts with assessment. That’s step two of the process. Many of our customers are still in step two, but a number of our customers have gone on to step three, which is restoration at the circuit level. Think of, circuits being the main highways of the distribution system that bring on entire areas of town. And so we start working on circuits first with the theory of bring on the most people the quickest and you’ll get to the one-days, two-days later. We know that’s still frustrating for those, 1 or 2 people that are out in that neighborhood, but our priority is to get the most people on the soonest. So as soon as we finish those circuit level outages, that’s where you might see certain neighborhoods on, but other neighborhoods not on. Again, we work down the priority list. So, step threeare those circuit level, outages. Step four starts getting into the neighborhood specific outage and then step five is the premise-specific outage.
During Hurricane Ike, for example, I was the last house in the neighborhood to get on because the line to my house was on the ground. Nobody else had the line on the ground. And so I was one of the last ones because that’s the process that we use.
Gage Goulding: And everybody wants to have the priority status. Even you don’t have the priority status. Is there a priority leveling? Is there certain neighborhoods get power first because it’s, you know, status or anything like that or is it based off of where the hospitals are?
Jason Ryan: We do give priority to a number of public safety-related premises. So think water treatment facilities, 911 centers. So we do prioritize getting those facilities back up while at the same time we’re working on the circuit level outages for the homes and businesses. So we do prioritize those public safety necessary premises to get back up before you get into boil water notices unnecessarily, things like that. So we don’t want the problems to get bigger just because, you might be the one-days, two-days, but you’re an incredibly important public safety premise So we do prioritize those. We are working through those priority lists as we speak.
Gage Goulding: And we only have a couple of minutes. I want to get across two more things here. The last time we talked in June, you said Ike cost about $700 million in the derecho in May was around roughly at the time about $100 million. Is there any forecast on what this has already cost or what it will cost?
Jason Ryan: Not yet. We’re still in the first 48 hours of the event, but we have brought in many more crews than we brought in, for the derecho, so this will be, you know, a multitude or, you know, twice as much, probably as the derecho event, but we’re still working on that.
Gage Goulding: And, we talked about this in depth in June, and we reported on it and I think this is a really interesting thing, the Resilience Plan, a huge monumental investment by CenterPoint to make the grid stronger. A lot of the questions people had were actually answered by that like, “Why isn’t CenterPoint investing in making the grid and everything stronger?” That’s actually in the process of happening. Can you explain how and what the Resilience Plan is and how that’s going to help? If we knock on wood and hopefully don’t get one of these again. But if it [the plan] happens, how it will help prevent having these monumental numbers?
Jason Ryan: So our Resilience Plan that we filed with the state back in March has 28 different programs associated with it. Some of them are on hard infrastructure, like distribution lines, where we’re replacing wooden poles with harder composite poles. Some of them are cybersecurity related. Some of them are physical security related. But let me stick with the pole example. And we’ve seen during the duration that we’ve seen during this storm where we’ve already started putting those composite poles up. In these severe weather events, those composite poles remain standing, and right next to them, wooden poles that we haven’t yet replaced are on the ground, snapped in half. So we know from these early tests that the Resilience Plan will yield better results once it’s fully implemented.
Gage Goulding: Well, Jason, thank you very much. I appreciate you taking the time. We appreciate all the work that CenterPoint is doing and you know, look, a lot of people still in Houston without power it’s going to take time, but 12,000 people, that’s a lot of people that are out there working right now. Anything else you want to add in there that we didn’t get to?
Jason Ryan: You know, only again recognizing that our customers are feeling the brunt of this. And understanding that in addition to the power being out, many of them have suffered significant, loss to property, right? Trees on their houses, trees on their cars. Trees on their businesses. And so our hearts go out to our customers. We thank them for their patience as we continue to do restoration. But we do know, that there’s a lot of suffering out in the community and we’re we will not stop working until the work is done.
“Most of the city is experiencing the dirty side of a very serious hurricane,” Mayor John Whitmire said as he began this morning’s 11 o’clock press conference on the progress of Beryl. He and other departmental officials repeatedly urged residents to stay off the roads.
“Our traffic lights are damaged. It’s going to take hours if not days to get them back in operation,” Whitmire said. He said if drivers had to be out, they need to slow down as they go through intersections. But again, it would be better to stay off the roads. “Shelter in place.”
Generators have failed at a number of locations including the George R. Brown Convention Center and the city’s BARC center for animals, he said.
“Most of the city’s multi service centers are without power. We know we have a lot of infrastructure challenges in this city.”
Most of the bayous are swollen and being monitored. Some such as Brays Bayou is out of its banks. There’s a very serious amount of water in excess of 10 inches in most of our city.”
Officials said the city’s efforts right now are concentrated on saving lives and that assessment and debris cleanup will come later. Whitmire asked residents to exercise patience and mentioned that flights were not going out at the city’s two airports.
First responders are risking their lives to save people, Whitmire said, adding that this morning these rescuers saved a person’s life at Highway 288 and Holly Hall. He said that in the last hour they had received more than 400 calls for help.
We had a fire fatality early this morning,” Fire Chief Samuel Peña said, adding that it was still under investigation whether this was storm related or due to an electrical malfunction.
There will be another briefing this afternoon, Whitmire said, at which time he hopes to have a better assessment of the city’s needs.
Additional resources are coming from the county and the state, Whitmire said, adding that he has been contacted by the White House. CenterPoint is bringing in thousands of addition personnel, he said.
“Getting the power back on is one of our highest priorities,” Whitmire said. “I do not have power. We’re all in this together.”
As Beryl continued its path toward Texas landfill, Mayor John Whitmire and other Houston area officials urged local residents to stay home as of 10 p.m. Sunday to stay safe and not add extra demands on first responders poised to go into action as the storm’s effects are felt here.
As of 5 p.m. Sunday, Beryl was expected to make landfall as a hurricane. There is a potential for power outages lasting two days.
“To all Houstonians, we have to take Beryl very, very seriously,” Whitmire said as he began his press conference. “Tomorrow, city employees are to work from home. Municipal courts, other services will be suspended and determined late tomorrow evening about Tuesday.”
Whitmire said surrounding governments including Montgomery and Fort Bend counties have offered their assistance. Local school district have closed for Monday and in Houston ISD classes are canceled for Monday and Tuesday.
“This storm has been unpredictable from day one. The conditions that you go to sleep tonight will not be the same as you you will wake up in the mornings,” Whitmire said. He said the winds and rain will start getting very intense around midnight. “We will have street flooding.”
After the first outer band went through, Buffalo Bayou along Memorial was already filling up.
Photo by Jack Gorman
Metro service was scheduled to stop around 10 p.m. Sunday and resume around 8 a.m. Monday, conditions permitting. Most city employees were told to work from home on Monday.
Acting Police Chief Larry Satterwhite said “The simple fact is we’re more prepared now than we ever have been for a storm like this. I think we have increased now to about 20 highway rescue trucks. And we have prepositioned around the city. We have hundreds of personnel who have been trained in swift water so we’re much more prepared.
“How can the public help? Let me echo the mayor and the commissioner — to stay off the road. I will go a step further and ask the bars and nightclubs if you can help us out, if you close earlier you’ll get your employees home and safe.”
Extra attention will be focused on the western portion of the city which is expected to see the worst of the storm as it moves through. Officials said they hoped Beryl would move through the area quickly.
Precinct 2 County Commissioner Adrian Garcia said special attention will be paid to conditions along the San Jacinto River as well. “Wind will be our greatest threat and 10 o’clock tonight should be your no-go to be on the road.”
Harris County Commissioner Tom Ramsey said they have 16 crews already in position in flood prone areas in his district. Harris County Judge Lina Hildalgo was not present and it was reported she would have her own press conference later Sunday.
Fire Chief Samuel Peña said “We have additional water strike teams. We have additional high water vehicles.” He said they’re also teamed up with the city’s Public Works Department to ensure that they are clearing debris from the streets. He also warned residents with generators to be careful that they don’t fall victim to carbon monoxide poisoning.
Whitmire said he has been in constant contact with Acting Governor Dan Patrick and that the city has been coordinating efforts with the Department of Transportation, the State Emergency Center and the Department of Public Safety.
PORT LAVACA, Texas – As Tropical Storm Beryl eyes up its final track along the Texas Gulf Coast, entire communities are fleeing for higher and drier ground.
On Saturday night, hotel staff at the Holiday Inn Express in Port Lavaca hand-delivered notices to every guest in the hotel alerting them that they had to leave in the morning as everyone is evacuating.
SEE ALSO: Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings issued ahead of Beryl’s expected landfall
“The hotel is shutting down for the Hurricane Beryl. Everyone must check out in the morning,” reads the notice. “Media crew is excluded.”
The hotel is positioned right alongside the Lavaca Bay, which could see storm surge as high as six feet above ground level.
Tropical Storm Beryl is expected to restrengthen as a Category 1 hurricane as it heads for the Texas coast.
It made another landfall early Friday morning on the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico, just northeast of Tulum. It made its second landfall as a Category 2 storm with max winds of 110 mph. Beryl’s third landfall is forecast to be on the Texas coast early Monday.
What You Need To Know
Beryl was the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record
It moved through the Caribbean and made landfall in Mexico on Friday
The center of Beryl is forecast to approach the Texas coast on Sunday and then make landfall on the Texas coast on Monday
Beryl is currently a tropical storm with max winds of 60 mph and it’s moving northwest in the Gulf of Mexico, moving away from Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula.
There is an increasing risk of damaging hurricane-force winds and life-threatening stom surge in portions of the Texas coast late Sunday into Monday, where Hurricane and Storm Surge Warnings are in effect.
Tropical storm conditions are also expected to be felt in a portion of northeastern Mexico.
These are the following tropical alerts in place:
Hurricane Warning
A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for the Texas coast from Baffin Bay northward to Sargent.
Tropical Storm Warning
A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the Texas coast north of Sargent to High Island.
Storm Surge Warning
A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from North Entrance of the Padre Island National Seashore northward to San Luis Pass, including Corpus Christi Bay and Matagorda Bay.
Storm Surge Watch
A Storm Surge Watch has been issued along the Texas coast east of High Island to Sabine Pass.
Models have Beryl turning northwest this weekend once it moves into the Gulf of Mexico. It is expected to make another landfall early Monday around South Texas.
Beryl so far
Beryl formed on Friday, June 28, becoming the second named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. It became a hurricane on Saturday, June 29, and on Sunday, June 30, it became the earliest Atlantic Category 4 storm on record.
It was the earliest major hurricane (Category 3+) to form in the Atlantic basin since 1966, and the third earliest major hurricane to form on record.
It made landfall onCarriacou Island in Grenada on Monday, July 1, as a strong Category 4 with max winds of 150 mph. It was the earliest Category 4 storm to make landfall in the Atlantic basin on record.
Late on Monday, July 1, Beryl moved back over the southeastern Caribbean Sea and continued to strengthen into a Category 5 hurricane. It became the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record, breaking the prior record held by Hurricane Emily in 2005 by two weeks.
With max winds of 165 mph, it also made Beryl the strongest July Atlantic hurricane on record.
As Beryl moved across the Caribbean Sea, it brought strong winds, heavy rain and dangerous storm surge and waves to the southern coast of the Dominican Republic and Haiti.
It moved toward Jamaica as a major hurricane, and its eyewall brushed past the southern side of the country. It didn’t make landfall on the island, but Hurricane Warnings were issued.
It also closely moved past the Cayman Islands after passing Jamaica.
Beryl made its second landfall just northeast of Tulum on the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico. It moved inland on the morning of July 5, as a Category 2 hurricane with max winds of 110 mph.
We’ll continue to monitor the latest tropical development. You can see other areas with development potential here.
Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
ROCKPORT, Texas – As Tropical Storm Beryl inches closer to the Texas Gulf Coast, many aren’t willing to roll the dice when it comes to what kind of wind and storm surge the tropical system will bring.
In Corpus Christi, the forecast of Beryl has many RV campers cutting their holiday weekend short.
“We’re getting out for sure,” said Manu Ardelean of San Antonio. “I get out bro, I get out. I’m that guy.”
Ardelean, his friend and another family member are all hooking up their RVs and hitting the road to higher and drier ground.
They’re among the many heading warnings of Tropical Storm Beryl strengthening into a hurricane before slamming into the Texas Gulf Coast.
“No, I mean, at all. No,” said Ardelean. “We don’t want to try that. I have three small kids.”
Meanwhile, just up the coast in Rockport, many homes can be seen boarded up with plywood and hurricane shutters.
“We’re just boarding up before the big one comes,” Thano Drimalas said.
He spent Saturday afternoon screwing pieces of plywood over his windows.
Drimalas recalls what Hurricane Harvey did to Rockport back in 2017. It’s a memory fresh for many that call this part of the Texas coast home.
“This place is still recovering from Harvey, is still a lot of slabs that are missing from Harvey still,” he said.
Copyright 2024 by KPRC Click2Houston – All rights reserved.
TEXAS — With its unprecedented tear through the ultrawarm waters of the southeast Caribbean, Beryl turned meteorologists’ worst fears of a souped-up hurricane season into grim reality. Now it’s Texas turn.
Beryl hit Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula as a Category 2 hurricane on Friday, then weakened to a tropical storm. It’s expected to reach southern Texas by Sunday night or Monday morning, regaining hurricane status as it crosses over the toasty Gulf of Mexico.
National Hurricane Center senior specialist Jack Beven said Beryl is likely to make landfall somewhere between Brownsville and a bit north of Corpus Christi Monday. The hurricane center forecasts it will hit as a strong Category 1 storm, but wrote “this could be conservative if Beryl stays over water longer” than expected.
The waters in the Gulf of Mexico are warm enough for the early-season storm to rapidly intensify, as it has several times before.
“We should not be surprised if this is rapidly intensifying before landfall and it could become a major hurricane,” said Weather Underground co-founder Jeff Masters, a former government hurricane meteorologist who flew into storms. “Category 2 may be more likely but we should not dismiss a Category 3 possibility.”
Beven said the official forecast has Beryl gaining 17 to 23 mph in wind speed in 24 hours, but noted the storm intensified more rapidly than forecasters expected earlier in the Caribbean.
“People in southern Texas now need to really keep an eye on the progress of Beryl,” Beven said.
Masters and University of Miami hurricane researcher Brian McNoldy said hurricane center forecasters have been very accurate in predicting Beryl’s track so far.
Already three times in its one-week life, Beryl has gained 35 mph in wind speed in 24 hours or less, the official weather service definition of rapid intensification.
The storm zipped from 35 mph to 75 mph on June 28. It went went from 80 mph to 115 mph in the overnight hours of June 29 into June 30 and on July 1 it went from 120 mph to 155 mph in just 15 hours, according to hurricane center records.
Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach, using a different tracking system, said he counted eight different periods when Beryl rapidly intensified – something that has only happened in the Atlantic in July two other times.
MIT meteorology professor Kerry Emanuel doesn’t give Beryl “much of a chance for another 35 mph wind speed jump in the Gulf of Mexico, but said it’s a tricky thing to forecast.
Beryl’s explosive growth into an unprecedented early whopper of a storm shows the literal hot water the Atlantic and Caribbean are in right now and the figurative hot water the Atlantic hurricane belt can expect for the rest of the storm season, experts said.
The storm smashed various records even before its major hurricane-level winds approached the island of Carriacou in Grenada on Monday.
Beryl set the record for the earliest Category 4 with winds of at least 130 mph (209 kilometers per hour) – the first-ever category 4 in June. It also was the earliest storm to rapidly intensify with wind speeds jumping 63 mph (102 kph) in 24 hours, going from an unnamed depression to a Category 4 in 48 hours.
Colorado State University’s Klotzbach called Beryl a harbinger.
Forecasters predicted months ago it was going to be a nasty year and now they are comparing it to record busy 1933 and deadly 2005 – the year of Katrina, Rita, Wilma and Dennis.
“This is the type of storm that we expect this year, these outlier things that happen when and where they shouldn’t,” University of Miami’s McNoldy said. “Not only for things to form and intensify and reach higher intensities, but increase the likelihood of rapid intensification.”
Warm water acts as fuel for the thunderstorms and clouds that form hurricanes. The warmer the water and thus the air at the bottom of the storm, the better the chance it will rise higher in the atmosphere and create deeper thunderstorms, said the University at Albany’s Kristen Corbosiero.
“So when you get all that heat energy you can expect some fireworks,” Masters said.
Atlantic waters have been record warm since April 2023. Klotzbach said a high pressure system that normally sets up cooling trade winds collapsed then and hasn’t returned.
Corbosiero said scientists are debating what exactly climate change does to hurricanes, but have come to an agreement that it makes them more prone to rapidly intensifying, as Beryl did, and increase the strongest storms, like Beryl.
Emanuel said the slowdown of Atlantic ocean currents, likely caused by climate change, may also be a factor in the warm water.
A brewing La Nina, which is a slight cooling of the Pacific that changes weather worldwide, also may be a factor. Experts say La Nina tends to depress high altitude crosswinds that decapitate hurricanes.
