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Tag: Hurricane

  • Tropical system continues to strengthen in Caribbean

    Tropical system continues to strengthen in Caribbean

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    TAMPA, FL — A tropical storm will probably develop by Tuesday in the Western Caribbean, then it will likely strengthen into a hurricane by Wednesday.


    What You Need To Know

    • Tropical impacts likely in our area on Thursday
    • Extent of impacts are still uncertain
    • Exact track of the storm will determine impacts here
    • System rapidly moves north Thursday night


    A hurricane will likely track north and make landfall on Thursday somewhere between the Nature Coast and Panama City.

    In terms of intensity, this storm is expected to become a major category 3 hurricane. 

    With such a range of possible landfall locations, this could lead to a number of different outcomes for the Tampa Bay region.

    No matter the outcome, the timing of impacts for the Tampa Bay area look to start late Wednesday night and end Thursday night. 

    The reason for such high uncertainty lies in its lack of development.

    While it has been designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone 9, it still does not have an organized center.

    It is much more difficult to forecast a storm that hasn’t developed, than one that has.

    The models are just guessing where an approximate center of the storm is now and going from there.

    If the model is wrong about where the center is now, it most certainly will be wrong about where it will be on Thursday.

    However, we can still outline possible scenarios that could pan out on Thursday. 

    Best-case scenario for the Tampa Bay area

    A best-case scenario for the Tampa Bay and Nature Coast regions will be a track up the western side of the current forecast cone.

    The area will still see bands of heavy rain starting Wednesday, then becoming more consistent on Thursday near the coast.

    In this scenario, landfall would be in the Panhandle, around Apalachicola or west, with the center passing over 100 miles west of Tampa Bay.

    Some coastal flooding would occur, but it would be minor, and only in the most flood-prone areas.

    Wind gusts to 40 mph would be possible near the coast and power outages would be isolated.

    The main impacts in the scenario would be minor coastal flooding and nuisance wind gusts.

    Inland flooding would not be a huge concern, and rainfall amounts would be around 1 to 3 inches. 

    Worst-case scenario for the Tampa Bay area

    The worst-case scenario for the area would certainly be a track up the eastern side of the current forecast cone.

    This would mean a landfall just to the north of Tampa Bay.

    While this is not a likely scenario, it is within the realm of possibility.

    The biggest impact would be storm surge in this case.

    While it would be hard to put an exact value to it at this point, it certainly would be a higher surge than anything seen in the area in many decades.

    Hurricane-force winds would be likely in this scenario with many power outages along with damage to property.

    Rainfall would still be on the low end for a hurricane, as it would be a fast moving storm. 

    Rainfall totals would be around 3 to 6 inches. 

    Somewhere in the middle

    A solution somewhere in the middle appears the most likely for now.

    This would mean a landfall in the Big Bend region.

    While we certainly would not get the brunt of the impacts around Tampa Bay, we would still get some sizable ones.

    A scenario like this could be similar to what transpired with Idalia last year.

    Several feet of storm surge would be possible around the Tampa Bay area with the biggest surge impacts in our region on the Nature Coast.

    In this scenario, hurricane-force winds would likely stay just west of us, but gusts over 50 mph would still be possible.

    Scattered power outages would be possible, along with some minor wind damage to property. 

    Rainfall would be around 2 to 4 inches, so the inland flood risk would be low. 

    Stay updated as the track will become more certain during the day on Tuesday and impacts will become more clear.

    For now, these are just possible scenarios, not definitive ones. 

    Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.

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    Meteorologist Kyle Hanson

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  • LIVE CHAT: Tropical storm expected to form in the Gulf soon

    LIVE CHAT: Tropical storm expected to form in the Gulf soon

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    A tropical storm is expected to form in the Gulf of Mexico soon. The next name on the list is Helene.

    It’s expected to strengthen into a hurricane as it moves north in the eastern Gulf, eventually making landfall along the Gulf Coast around Thursday evening.

    Rain and wind impacts will begin around Tampa Bay on Wednesday, with worsening conditions and dangerous storm surge possible beginning Thursday.

    Bay News 9 Meteorologist Kyle Hanson will be here at 1 p.m. on Tuesday to answer your questions about the storm and let you know what to expect where you live.

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    Spectrum News Weather Staff

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  • Tropical development possible in the Gulf next week

    Tropical development possible in the Gulf next week

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    We’re watching three areas with the potential to develop in the Atlantic basin.

    An area in the northwestern Caribbean Sea has medium development odds, and two other areas in the central Atlantic have low odds to develop.


    What You Need To Know

    • We’re watching an area in the Caribbean Sea
    • A tropical depression could form early next week
    • There are two other areas in the Atlantic with low development odds


    We’re watching a disturbance in the northwestern Caribbean Sea that has medium odds to develop in the next week. An area of low pressure should form later this weekend or early next week.

    Once it forms, gradual development is possible as it moves slowly north or northwest toward the southern Gulf of Mexico. A tropical depression could form by early next week in the Gulf. It’s still too early to determine where this system could impact along the Gulf Coast if it develops, but we’re monitoring it closely.

    There are two other areas of low pressure being monitored in the central Atlantic. Some development is possible for both systems, but conditions aren’t too favorable for development, and neither look threatening to land.

    The next name on the list is Helene.

    Here’s a look at the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season so far.


    More Storm Season Resources



    Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.

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    Spectrum News Staff

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  • Climate change is making home insurance costs more expensive. These maps show prices and weather risks in your state.

    Climate change is making home insurance costs more expensive. These maps show prices and weather risks in your state.

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    Hurricane Francine in Louisiana, flooding in the Carolinas and wildfires in California are among the extreme weather events impacting millions across the U.S. just in the past week. And it’s not just about the physical risks — it’s having a major impact on the affordability of having a home, as extreme weather continues to feed into the rising costs of home insurance

    In some areas, homes are such great a risk that they’re too expensive to insure — if private insurance is even available at all. 

    How much does the average person spend on home insurance?

    Home insurance premiums are intended to be cheaper than what it would cost to rebuild your home after a disaster or major damage. That cost is based on numerous factors, including home size and claim history, but it’s also based on location — and as extreme weather events driven by climate change bring a greater risk of floods, severe storms, hurricanes and heat waves, among other things, that location matters more than ever. 

    Bankrate has found that the average cost of dwelling insurance, which covers the actual structure of your home should it need to be rebuilt, is $2,285 per year in the U.S. for a policy with a $300,000 limit. But that cost is still rising. 


    “From 2017 to 2022, homeowners insurance premiums rose 40% faster than inflation,” a June report by the Bipartisan Policy Center says. “…For millions of households already struggling to make their mortgage payments, these monthly insurance costs are a significant burden. They can also put homeownership out of reach for prospective first-time homebuyers.”

    The range of homeowners’ insurance costs is widespread. In Vermont, Bankrate data shows that people pay an average of $67 a month for a $300,000 dwelling limit, while in Nebraska, the most expensive home insurance state, people pay an average of $471 per month — an annual policy that amounts to more than $3,300 above the national average. 

    Other parts of insurance coverage are not included in these amounts, such as other structures, personal property and loss of use, which are typically listed as coverage B, C and D, respectively, in coverage policies. And depending on your location, you may also need separate deductibles for wind or storm damage, will likely be determined based on a percentage of your dwelling coverage.

    “While inflation has slowed down since its peak in June 2022, insurance rates are reactionary,” Bankrate said in its September report. “The cost of home insurance is still increasing due to the impact inflation has had on the previous losses experienced by the insurance company, the elevated cost of building materials and the high likelihood of future extreme weather-related losses.” 

    Home location matters for insurance costs 

    Across the U.S., people are dealing with risk of earthquakes, tornadoes, floods, hurricanes, wildfires and severe storms across the seasons. In California, which, as of Sept. 17, is battling six active wildfires, the growing risk of such events has left some areas “essentially ‘uninsurable‘,” according to researchers at First Street Foundation, a nonprofit that studies climate risks. The group found that about 35.6 million properties — a quarter of all U.S. real estate — are facing higher insurance costs and lower coverage because of climate risks. 

    That combination also devalues their properties. 

    San Bernardino County, which accounts for six out of the 10 worst ZIP codes in the state for insurance non-renewals, is also among the most at-risk of natural hazards and climate change, according to FEMA. The county in Southern California is currently combatting both the Bridge and Line Fires, which combined have burned more than 93,000 acres. 

    U.S. map showing the National Risk Index by county.


    The fire risk in California — which has also been battling the historically large Park Fire for nearly two months — is now so high that both Allstate and State Farm have paused sales of property and casualty coverage to new customers in the state. 

    “The cost to insure new home customers in California is far higher than the price they would pay for policies due to wildfires, higher costs for repairing homes, and higher reinsurance premiums,” Allstate told CBS News.

    AAA is also opting out of renewing some policies in Florida, a state that has seen increasingly devastating impacts of flooding and hurricanes. Without private insurance offers, it’s up to insurance policies made available by the government, such as the the National Flood Insurance Program, to assist. 

    It’s not just an issue for coastal areas and wildfire-prone states. In fact, the most impactful weather events are those that do not get categorized with names. 

    The Insurance Information Institute found in a May 2020 report that severe convective storms — thunderstorms — “are the most common and damaging natural catastrophes in the United States.” Tornadoes are often a product of those storms, and Nebraska, the most expensive home insurance state on average, was impacted by five of the top 10 costliest U.S. catastrophes involving tornadoes, according to the report.  

    There have already been 20 billion-dollar disasters nationwide so far this year, as of Sept. 10, with 14 of those involving severe weather or tornadoes. 

    2024-billion-dollar-disaster-map-1.png
    This map shows the confirmed billion-dollar weather and climate disaster events that have already occurred in the U.S. in 2024. 

    NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information


    As the risk grows, affordability dwindles 

    Nearly half of U.S. homes face a severe threat of climate change, with about $22 trillion in residential properties at risk of “severe or extreme damage” from flooding, high winds, wildfires, extreme heat or poor air quality, according to a study earlier this year by Realtor.com

    But Bankrate has also found that more than a quarter of homeowners say they aren’t financially prepared to handle the costs that come with it. 

    And it’s not just homeowners. While last year was not the worst year for overall U.S. insured losses due to extreme weather, it was the worst year since at least 2014 for losses due to severe storms ($59.2 billion), according to data by AON. 

    Renters are feeling those impacts as well. 

    Between 2020 and 2023, multifamily housing development insurance rates increased by an average of 12.5% annually, according to a June report by the Bipartisan Policy Center

    “One affordable housing provider, National Church Residences, saw its property insurance premiums increase by over 400% in the six years leading up to 2023, along with higher deductibles and reduced coverage,” the report says. National Church Residences provides affordable housing and independent and assisted living to seniors.  

    Last fall, NDP Analytics surveyed 418 housing providers across the U.S. who operate a combined 2.7 million units, including 1.7 million affordable housing units. They found that nearly a third of them saw premium increases of 25% or more from 2022 to 2023. To handle those costs, over 93% of respondents said they’d have to increase their deductibles, decrease operating expenses and/or increase rent. More than half said they would need to limit or delay investments in housing stock and projects. 

    How to lower home insurance costs

    The driver behind extreme weather events — rising global temperatures largely fueled by the burning of fossil fuels — is not going away anytime soon. The continued release of greenhouse gases that trap heat within the atmosphere will continue to heat up the planet for thousands of years to come, even if overuse of those gases stopped today, which means that there are still decades to come of worsening climate disasters putting lives and homes at risk. 

    But home insurance is a game of measuring risk, and there are things you can do to better protect your home that could help lessen the blow of future weather disasters. 

    According to Massachusetts insurance agency C&S Insurance, resilient home features can make an impact on premium pricing. Storm shutters, reinforced roofing and flood barriers can all help lower the risk of damage to your house, and therefore, your wallet.

    NerdWallet says that elevating your home’s water heaters and electrical panels, developing wildfire-resilient landscaping and installing fortified roofing are among the things homeowners can do to reduce the impacts of flooding, fires and wind, respectively. 

    The Council on Foreign Relations, an independent nonpartisan organization, says that more government regulations on where and how homes can be built can also help reduce the costs. The group says that stopping taxpayer dollars for buildings in high-risk areas and more investment in natural infrastructure, such as wetlands and trees, can also help reduce impacts from storm surges and heat. 

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  • Tropical Storm Gordon forms in the Atlantic

    Tropical Storm Gordon forms in the Atlantic

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    Tropical Storm Gordon has formed in the central Atlantic. It’s the seventh named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.


    What You Need To Know

    • Gordon has formed in the Atlantic
    • It’s moving west-northwestward
    • It isn’t expected to impact land


    Gordon is moving west-nortwestward in the central Atlantic with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. It’s expected to continue to head westward across the Atlantic for the next few days.

    It will slow down this weekend over the central Atlantic, where it’s expected to drift around and stay weak and unorganized as it moves into an area with drier air.


    Models have Gordon moving west this weekend, and then there is more uncertainty in the track by early next week.

    Conditions aren’t expected to be too favorable for Gordon to intensify much over the open Atlantic through this weekend, but conditions could improve early next week and Gordon could re-intensify.

    It will not threaten any land.

    Check to see how the rest of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is going so far.


    More Storm Season Resources



    Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.

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    Spectrum News Staff

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  • Francine made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane along coastal Louisiana

    Francine made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane along coastal Louisiana

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    Francine formed into a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, Sept. 9, becoming the sixth named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.


    What You Need To Know

    • Francine made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane in Louisiana
    • It was the sixth named storm and fourth hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season
    • It brought dangerous storm surge, widespread flooding and strong winds to the Deep South


    It became a hurricane on Tuesday, Sept. 10. It slowly strengthened as it moved northeast in the Gulf, eventually becoming a Category 2 hurricane before moving inland.

    Francine made landfall on Wednesday, Sept. 11, in Terrebonne Parish, La, as a Category 2 storm with maximum winds of 100 mph. Louis Armstrong New Orleans International Airport reported a wind gust of 78 mph Wednesday night and 7.32 inches of rain in 24 hours. 

    At the storm’s peak, 450,000 people in Louisiana were estimated to be without power. Many of the outages were attributed to falling debris, not structural damage. At one point, around 500 people were in emergency shelters, officials said.

    It moved inland Wednesday night and by Thursday morning, Sept. 12 it had weakened to a tropical storm. By the afternoon it became post-tropical, but continued to spin rain along the Deep South. 

    The remnant low brought rain as far north as the drought-stricken Mid-Mississippi River Valley and Tennessee Valley.


    Here’s a look at the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season so far.


    More Storm Season Resources



    Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.

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    Spectrum News Staff

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  • Francine lashes Louisiana, leaves thousands without power

    Francine lashes Louisiana, leaves thousands without power

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    Francine slammed into the Louisiana coast Wednesday evening as a dangerous Category 2 hurricane that knocked out electricity to tens of thousands of customers and threatened widespread flooding as it sent a potentially deadly storm surge rushing inland along the Gulf Coast. Despite quickly weakening to a tropical storm, it was packing a strong punch. 

    Francine crashed ashore in Terrebonne Parish, about 30 miles southwest of Morgan City, the National Hurricane Center announced at 4 p.m. CDT. Packing maximum sustained winds near 100 mph, the storm then battered a fragile coastal region that hasn’t fully recovered from a series of devastating hurricanes in 2020 and 2021.

    Morgan City Fire Chief Alvin Cockerham said Francine quickly flooded streets, snapped power lines and sent tree limbs crashing down.

    Hurricane Francine
    The entrance to Lake Ponchartrain Causeway is closed due to Hurricane Francine in Metairie, La., Wednesday, Sept. 11, 2024. The causeway is the longest continuous bridge over water in the world.

    Matthew Hinton / AP


    “It’s a little bit worse than what I expected to be honest with you,” Cockerham said of the onslaught. “I pulled all my trucks back to the station; it’s too dangerous to be out there in this.”

    There were no immediate reports of deaths or injuries.

    More than 330,000 customers were without power across Louisiana Wednesday night, according to utility tracker PowerOutage.us.

    TV news broadcasts from Louisiana’s coastal communities showed waves from nearby lakes, rivers and Gulf waters thrashing sea walls. Water poured into city streets and neighborhoods amid blinding downpours. Oak and cypress trees leaned in the high winds, and some utility poles swayed back and forth.

    Hardest hit by the blackouts was Terrebonne Parish near where the storm’s center hit land, as well as neighboring St. Mary Parish that includes Morgan City.

    Det. Lt. David Spencer, a spokesperson for the St. Mary Parish Sheriff’s Office, told CBS News in an email that the parish was “seeing more flooding than originally predicted.”

    Spencer said the area was experiencing downed trees and power lines and damage to homes.

    “We have had some roofs severely damaged and even gone,” Spencer wrote, adding that there were no reports of injuries. 

    Francine was centered about 35 miles northwest of New Orleans and had maximum sustained winds of 70 mph as of late Wednesday night, according to the hurricane center. It was moving northeast at 16 mph. 

    Sheltering at her mother’s home just outside Morgan City, Laura Leftwich said blasts of wind had swept away two large birdhouses outside. She had a generator powering an internet connection so she could video chat with friends, holding her computer to a window to show them water overflowing in the street.

    If the storm had been any more intense, “I wouldn’t have the guts to look outside,” said Leftwich, 40. “It’s a little scary.”

    Louisiana braces for the worst

    Terrebonne Parish President Jason Bergeron told CBS News on Wednesday that the levies were holding, but the water is rising.

    “The ground is saturated with water, and as the levy system is closed that water has a harder time getting out, except for some areas that have some pumps,” Bergeron said. 

    Sheltering at her mother’s home just outside Morgan City, Laura Leftwich said blasts of wind had swept away two large birdhouses outside. She had a generator powering an internet connection so she could video chat with friends, holding her computer to a window to show them water overflowing in the street.

    If the storm had been any more intense, “I wouldn’t have the guts to look outside,” said Leftwich, 40. “It’s a little scary.”

    The National Hurricane Center urged residents to stay sheltered overnight as Francine blows inland. The storm’s projected path included New Orleans, where forecasters said the storm’s eye could pass through.

    Louisiana Residents Prepare As Hurricane Francine Heads Towards Coastline
    Floodwater fills a neighborhood on September 11, 2024 in Houma, Louisiana. Hurricane Francine has been upgraded to a Category 2 hurricane and made landfall along the Louisiana coast.

    Brandon Bell / Getty Images


    “Conditions are going to go downhill really rapidly over the next couple of hours,” Jamie Rhome, the hurricane center’s deputy director, said in an online briefing prior to landfall. “It’s not going to be a good night to be driving on the roads, especially when the sun goes down.”

    Bands of heavy rain began pelting New Orleans on Wednesday morning and were expected to intensify with the approach of Francine. New Orleans could see up to 10 inches of rain, putting the city’s water pump and drainage system to the test.

    “Stay inside, hunker down,” New Orleans Mayor LaToya Cantrell said in a news briefing Wednesday. “Now is the time, between now as well as moving into midnight.”

    A flash flood emergency was declared for New Orleans, Metairie and Kenner until 11:45 p.m. local time, the National Weather Service said.

    Francine expected to weaken rapidly

    Francine drew fuel from exceedingly warm Gulf of Mexico waters, strengthening to a Category 2 storm hours before landfall, the National Hurricane Center said. Category 2 hurricanes are classified as having winds of between 96 to 110 mph that are capable of extensive damage.

    Still dangerous, the hurricane began weakening as it rushed inland, dropping in less than two hours back to a Category 1 storm with top winds of 85 mph. Francine continued moving northeast at a fast clip of 17 mph on a path toward New Orleans, about 55 miles away.

    Louisiana Residents Prepare As Hurricane Francine Heads Towards Coastline
    A road is blocked off ahead of Hurricane Francine’s arrival on Sept. 11, 2024, in Dulac, Louisiana. 

    Brandon Bell / Getty Images


    It was forecast to weaken further while pushing northward through Mississippi on Thursday, with widespread rains in the coming days bringing potential flash flooding to cities including Jackson, Mississippi; Birmingham, Alabama; Memphis, Tennessee; and Atlanta. It also raised the threat of spin-off tornadoes.

    Much of Louisiana and Mississippi could get 4 to 8 inches of rain, with the possibility of 12 inches in some spots, said Brad Reinhart, a senior hurricane specialist at the hurricane center.

    Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry said the National Guard would fan out to parishes impacted by Francine. They have food, water, nearly 400 high-water vehicles, about 100 boats and 50 helicopters to respond to the storm, including for possible search-and-rescue operations.

    Louisianans have experience with hurricanes 

    Since the mid-19th century, some 57 hurricanes have tracked over or made landfall in Louisiana, according to The Weather Channel. Among them are some of the strongest, costliest and deadliest storms in U.S. history.

    Morgan City, home to around 11,500 people, sits on the banks of the Atchafalaya River in south Louisiana and is surrounded by lakes and marsh. It’s described on the city’s website as “gateway to the Gulf of Mexico for the shrimping and oilfield industries.”

    Luis Morfin, 26, left his RV camper outside Morgan City’s levee to hunker down at a friend’s home Wednesday night. Winds lashed the windows as they watching a TV powered by a generator. The power was out, but they were prepared to cook with steaks and potatoes on a propane stove.

    “We knew what we were expecting,” Morfin said. “I don’t know how good my camper is, but we’ll figure that out tomorrow.”

    President Biden granted an emergency declaration to help Louisiana secure expedited federal money and assistance. Landry and Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves also declared states of emergency.

    A hurricane warning was in effect along the Louisiana coast from Cameron east to Grand Isle, about 50 miles south of New Orleans, according to the Miami-based hurricane center. A storm surge warning stretched from the Mississippi-Alabama border to the Alabama-Florida border.

    The Mississippi Emergency Management Agency said it distributed more than 100,000 sandbags to the southern part of the state and the Department of Education reported a number of school district closures for Wednesday and Thursday.

    The sixth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, Francine had prompted storm surge warnings on the Louisiana coast of as much as 10 feet from Cameron to Port Fourchon and into Vermilion Bay, forecasters said.

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  • LIVE CAMERAS: Watch Francine as it makes landfall in Louisiana

    LIVE CAMERAS: Watch Francine as it makes landfall in Louisiana

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    Norman Bouisse, 76, left, and Jeremy Adam, back left, one of the captains for the 100-foot trawler Master Brandon, work at tying extra lines around a piling in their attempt to batten down their boat in anticipation of Hurricane Francine along the Louisiana coast in Lafitte on Monday, Sept. 9, 2024. (Chris Granger/The Times-Picayune/The New Orleans Advocate via AP)

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    Spectrum News Weather Staff

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  • An anomalously quiet Atlantic hurricane season so far

    An anomalously quiet Atlantic hurricane season so far

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    Hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean spans June through November and this year was forecasted as one for the record books, thanks to several climatological features. 


    What You Need To Know

    • 2024 was forecasted to be the most active Atlantic Hurricane Season on record
    • Through early Sept. 2024 there have only been six named storms
    • “Atlantic Niña” could have contributed to the lack of developing systems


    However, as we approach the midway point between the season, the under performance, so far, in the Atlantic basin has many questioning whether the season was over forecasted or the second half will see an “explosion” of activity.

    2024 Atlantic Season predictions

    Both the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Colorado State University (CSU) made their seasonal forecasts back in May and had above average, ranging from 17 to 25 tropical cyclones (named storms) for NOAA and 23 named storms for CSU.

    The average number of named storms is around 14 per season. So why the extreme forecasts?

    The factors that contributed to the high number of storm predictions include near-record warmth of the Atlantic Ocean water temperatures and a La Niña. The La Niña creates a cooling of the equatorial Pacific Ocean temperatures but also reduces the wind shear and Atlantic trade winds, resulting in favorable conditions for storm development.

    Strong start to the season

    The season began strong. Alberto formed in mid-June over the southwestern part of the Gulf of Mexico.

    Next came Beryl, a long-lived storm that formed late June, south of Cabo Verde and traversed the Atlantic Ocean, intensifying into a Category 5 hurricane on July 2, becoming the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record.

    A vehicle is stranded in high waters on a flooded highway in Houston, on Monday, July 8, 2024, after Beryl came ashore in Texas as a hurricane and dumped heavy rains along the coast. (AP Photo/Juan A. Lozano)

    Other storms that followed included Hurricane Debby and Hurricane Ernesto. Here’s a look at the 2024 hurricane season so far.

    By mid-August, conditions in the Atlantic went quiet. A lull that lasted several weeks.

    Early September saw the Atlantic wake up, with Francine forming on Sept. 9 in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico from a tropical wave that crossed the Atlantic the week prior. 

    “Atlantic Niña”

    The sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of the North Atlantic remained extremely warm for much of the year. However, since early June, the central equatorial Atlantic has been about 0.5 to 1.0 degrees Celsius colder than average for this time of the year.

    Dubbed, “Atlantic Niña,” this phenomenon has shifted the track of the “seed” storms, or disturbances that move west off the coast of Africa into the Atlantic Ocean and typically develop into intense storms. According to NOAA, “a stronger West African Monsoon, the track of these waves has shifted north toward cooler waters and overall, less conducive conditions needed for tropical cyclone formation.”

    As of early September, the cooling of the central equatorial Atlantic has weakened with tropical activity expected to increase. NOAA suggests that even in active seasons, there can be periodic lulls in activity and is still forecasting a well above-average season.

    Still a lot of the season to go

    “We are just coming up on the halfway mark of the hurricane season, usually the time of peak activity,” says Dr. Frank Marks, a meteorologist in the Hurricane Research Division of NOAA/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory.

    Location is key. “For the month of September into early October, the most likely place to watch for tropical cyclone development is still the central Atlantic in the Caribbean. However, there is always a possibility of a tropical cyclone developing in the Gulf of Mexico along an old front.”

    Stressing that systems that form in the Gulf of Mexico are dangerous, “As they are likely to strike land in 2-3 days rather than being able to track them across the Atlantic for a week or more.”

    As for whether this season will be a bust for forecasters, Dr. Marks explains it like this. “Each hurricane season is different, with different changes in the weather patterns that affect the likelihood of storms to form. You need to remember that as Mark Twain once said, ‘Climate is what you expect, but weather is what you get.’”

    Unfortunately, as history has proven, it doesn’t matter the total number of storms per season because it only takes one storm to make landfall in your area and cause devastation.

    Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.

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    Meteorologist Stacy Lynn

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  • Francine is strengthening; Tropical Storm and Hurricane Warnings issued

    Francine is strengthening; Tropical Storm and Hurricane Warnings issued

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    Francine has formed in the Gulf of Mexico, becoming the sixth named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. 


    What You Need To Know

    • Tropical Storm Francine has formed in the Gulf of Mexico
    • It’s forecast to strengthen into a hurricane
    • It will make landfall along the Gulf Coast this week


    Francine is a tropical storm with max winds of 65 mph. It’s slowly moving north-northwest in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

    The storm will slowly move off the coast of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas during the next day or so. It will then turn toward the northeast and speed up as it heads to the central Gulf Coast.

    The tropical-storm-force winds extend 160 miles outward from the center, meaning this is a large storm and impacts will be far from the center of the storm.

    It’s forecast to strengthen into a hurricane and could become a hurricane late Monday night or early Tuesday. It is expected to make landfall around Louisiana sometime late Wednesday.

    Regardless of development, this system will bring heavy rainfall to parts of the Gulf Coast and Deep South beginning Tuesday night. However, there is still uncertainty in the exact track and specific impacts. 

    The highest rainfall totals look to be around Louisiana and up the Mississippi River Valley, where flooding is possible through mid-to-late week.

    Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are issued for parts of the western and central Gulf Coast, and Hurricane Watches and Warnings are in effect across southern Louisiana.


    Here’s a look at the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season so far.


    More Storm Season Resources



    Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.

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  • 1 in 4 U.S. homeowners is financially unprepared for costs of extreme weather, report finds

    1 in 4 U.S. homeowners is financially unprepared for costs of extreme weather, report finds

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    Add tornadoes, wildfires and floods to the already lengthy list worries for U.S. homeowners.

    More than a quarter of homeowners (26%) say they are not financially prepared to handle the costs if extreme weather damages their home, according to a new report from Bankrate. Among those polled, 14% reported they are somewhat unprepared and 12% say they are very unprepared, the personal finance site found. The findings come as hurricane season reaches its peak.

    People who are “unprepared for that kind of climate risk intersecting with the amount of unknown risk that exists in the country is really alarming in a lot of ways,” Dr. Jeremy Porter, head of climate implications research at First Street, a firm that studies climate risk, told CBS MoneyWatch.

    The Bankrate survey provides a snapshot of homeowners’ financial position in a climate landscape where summers are becoming hotter, hurricane season more active and wildfires more destructive. As billion-dollar climate disasters become more common, homeowners will have to absorb part of the cost via higher insurance rates, weather-proofing strategies and repairs.

    In the Bankrate survey, 15% of homeowners said they would not be able to pay their insurance deductible without going into debt if their home was damaged in an extreme weather event.

    Geographically, people in the the South (29%) and West (28%) reported the greatest degree of financial vulnerability to extreme weather, the survey found. 

    “People living in the South are more likely to have home policies, so they’re going to have to pay the biggest amount, and their earning potential is actually lower,” said Shannon Martin, an analyst at Bankrate.

    Changing insurance market

    It’s no secret that the insurance market is going through a rapid transformation. Insurers like Allstate and State Farm are withdrawing from states prone to fires and coastal flooding or opting to raise their premiums, making homeowners’ coverage less affordable. 

    Porter said rates are likely to rise in the future given that insurers hasn’t fully priced climate-related costs into the real estate market. “There are more increases to come in terms of additional costs of even homeownership,” he said.


    Understanding your homeowner’s insurance

    02:25

    According to Bankrate, 7% of those polled said they do not have homeowners insurance. That figures rises to 15% for people earning less than $50,000 annually. According to the Insurance Information Institute, 12% of homeowners went without insurance in 2022.

    How to protect your property

    Understanding your risk is important, experts say, especially given that dealing with extreme weather is unprecedented territory for most Americans. 

    “Homeowners may also face the risk of hazards they have not faced in the past,” said Andrew Kruczkiewicz, a senior staff associate at the National Center for Disaster Preparedness, part of Columbia University’s Climate School. 

    Of those polled by Bankrate, 43% said they had not taken any steps in the past five years to protect their home against property damage due to dangerous weather, while just 9% of homeowners had invested in weather-proofing measures.

    By contrast, more homeowners are at least aware of the growing risks, Martin said. “What this survey told me is that more people are kind of paying attention to what’s happening in terms of extreme weather.”

    According to Bankrate, 39% of homeowners said that they reviewed their auto or home insurance policy to ensure they have the proper level of coverage. 

    “It seems like such a simple and basic thing, but it’s honestly the first step that everyone should take,” Martin said.


    Can 3D-printed homes withstand a changing climate?

    02:04

    Martin recommends calling your insurer or finding a time to meet with them in person to review your policy. Something like fire or flooding may be covered one year and not the next, she said.

    Martin also said people should check out Risk Factor from First Street and Climate Check, tools that allow users to look up their property and view extreme weather risk. “

    You can look there and understand the smaller, more affordable things you can do to your house to make sure that you’re protecting yourself against those types of damages,” Porter aid.

    Getting out while there’s still time

    In some cases, mitigation strategies simply won’t cut it. Over those polled in Bankrate’s survey, 7% said they ultimately moved to a lower risk area to reduce the risks of extreme weather.

    The trend is relatively small at this point, said Porter. “I would expect in the near future, we won’t see any mass macro level migration.” Still, more and more people are taking risks into consideration and making climate informed decisions, he added.

    Joe Printz, a New York-based wine shop owner and former restaurateur, is one of them. Printz closed on a home in Napeague Harbor, on the South Fork of Long Island, New York, in early 2021. Just three years later, he and his partner are already considering selling it for fear it might one day be underwater.

    Made of six repurposed steel shipping containers fit together Tetris style, Printz ‘s home, nicknamed the “Beach Box,” is a formidable force against extreme weather. “I’m telling you, a tidal wave would probably only knock out the windows,” he said. 

    But even the sturdiest of materials may not stop it from getting pummeled by a flood. If past storms are any indication, water from the ocean, only two and a half blocks away in the case of Print’s property, will find its way.

    A local coastal resiliency report predicts there’s a 60% chance a 100-year coastal flood will hit that part of Long Island in the next 30 years and that sea level rise could transform East Hampton into a series of islands as early as 2070.

    Printz doesn’t want to take any chances. “We are going to fix up our house. We’re going to live in it for three or four more years and probably sell it,” he said.

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  • Season’s next hurricane — Francine — seems to be forming in Gulf of Mexico, forecasters say

    Season’s next hurricane — Francine — seems to be forming in Gulf of Mexico, forecasters say

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    “CBS Weekend News” headlines for Sept. 8, 2024


    “CBS Weekend News” headlines for Sunday, Sept. 8, 2024

    01:49

    A tropical disturbance in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico was shaping up as what could be the season’s next hurricane, the National Hurricane Center said early Monday. It would be called Francine and end a brief lull that hurricane-prone regions were enjoying.

    The hurricane center said the system is expected to become a tropical storm Monday and a hurricane before it makes landfall, likely over the northwestern U.S. Gulf shoreline Wednesday, bringing with it an “increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds along the Louisiana and upper-Texas coasts.”

    likely-hurricane-francine-early-090924.jpg
    A tropical disturbance forecasters say could become Hurricane Francine within days as seen from a satellite early on September 9, 2024.

    NOAA / National Hurricane Center


    The system was expected to dump 4-8 inches of rain in many areas and up to a foot in some places, forecasters said.

    Tropical-storm-force winds were extending outward up to 185 miles from the system’s center early Monday.

    That center was about 295 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Rio Grande and some 535 miles south of Cameron, Louisiana. It was crawling north-northwest at 5 mph.

    The disturbance had maximum sustained winds of 50 mph, well above the 39 mph needed to be officially dubbed a tropical storm but, explains CBS senior weather and climate producer David Parkinson, its center wasn’t defined clearly enough yet to get that classification.

    A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Barra del Tordo, Mexico to the mouth of the Rio Grande and from there to Port Mansfield, Texas.

    The disturbance follows an unusually calm August and early September in the Atlantic hurricane season, which has had five named storms.

    Experts had predicted one of the busiest Atlantic seasons ever and, The Associated Press notes, Colorado State University researchers said last week they still expect an above-normal season overall.

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  • September hurricanes that brought devastation to the U.S.

    September hurricanes that brought devastation to the U.S.

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    September is the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season.

    This is because wind shear, the change of speed and/or direction of the wind with height, is weaker, and the ocean waters are extremely warm.

    Sept. 10 is typically the last day for peak tropical activity. From then on out, activity declines, but this doesn’t mean we won’t see powerful storms.

    Let’s look back in recorded history to some of the strongest storms that occurred during September.


    What You Need To Know

    • Most tropical activity occurs during September
    • Storms can form across the entire Atlantic basin
    • The average peak of activity during hurricane season occurs on Sept. 10


    The 2000s

    Damage from Hurricane Ian in Fort Myers, Fla. in 2022. (AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee)

    Hurricane Ian in 2022: First forming on Sept. 24, Ian traveled through the Caribbean Sea, the Gulf and the Atlantic, making five total landfalls.

    Ian made its first and second landfall in Cuba and Dry Tortugas, Fla. as a Category 3 hurricane, a third and fourth landfall in Cayo Costa, Fla. and near Punta Gorda, Fla. as a Category 4 hurricane and a final landfall in Georgetown, S.C. as a Category 1. 

    The hurricane affected Florida severely, with tens of thousands of structures damaged or destroyed. Catastrophic storm surge occurred on Florida’s west coast, reaching 10 to 15 feet near Fort Myers.

    Historic flooding occurred in some areas, getting over 20 inches of rain. The highest total was 26.95 inches in Grove City, Fla.

    Ian was responsible for 156 deaths, and became the third costliest hurricane on record, causing $112.9 billion in damage. 

    Two people ride past debris piled up on the beach in Galveston, Texas after Hurricane Ike hit the coast. Courtesy: AP/Matt Slocum.

    Hurricane Ike in 2008: Our next hurricane takes us back to 2008 when a tropical wave slid off the coast of Africa at the end of August. It developed into a tropical depression on Sept. 1, and on the same day, became a tropical storm.

    Ike became a hurricane on Sept. 3, underwent rapid intensification, and became a major hurricane later that same day. By the morning of Sept. 4, it reached a maximum intensity of 145 mph.

    Ike first made landfall in Cuba as a Category 4 hurricane, bringing devastating impacts then weakening.

    After, it moved into the Gulf of Mexico and regained strength, reaching Category 2 status before making landfall near Galveston, Texas on Sept. 13.

    Ike’s slow movement and large wind field led to a storm surge up to 20 feet. It destroyed all homes on the Bolivar Peninsula, submerged roads with floodwaters and blocked roads with fallen debris.

    Ike killed 74 people in the state of Texas, alone.

    Its northeast movement brought impacts far north to the upper Midwest and Northeast, causing extensive wind damage and leaving millions of people without power for over a week.

    Hurricane Rita in 2005: The 2005 Atlantic hurricane season will forever be a memorable one, with many powerful storms impacting the U.S. that year.

    Only a few weeks after Hurricane Katrina, Rita developed into a tropical depression near Turks and Caicos on Sept. 18.

    It tracked west for several days and underwent rapid intensification in the Gulf of Mexico, becoming a major Category 5 hurricane on Sept. 21. Rita weakened to a Category 3 hurricane right before making landfall in southwest Louisiana on Sept. 24.

    Rita caused $18.5 billion in damage, bringing up to 15 feet of storm surge to the coast of Louisiana and Texas. It destroyed or damaged most homes.

    Rita’s storm surge overtopped the levees that were newly repaired from Hurricane Katrina’s destruction the month prior, worsening the devastation across the city of New Orleans.

    Hurricane Ivan floods Gulf Breeze, Fla. Courtesy: AP/John Bazemore

    Hurricane Ivan in 2004: Ivan formed in the central Atlantic on Sept. 2, tracking west-northwest for a week while intensifying.

    It first brushed by Jamaica, Cuba and the Cayman Islands, fluctuating between a Category 4 and Category 5 hurricane before weakening to a Category 3 hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico.

    Ivan then made landfall near Gulf Shores, Ala. as a major Category 3 hurricane on Sept. 16.

    Once again, the storm surge was the primary cause of damage, destroying and washing away many homes.

    Ivan also produced over 100 tornadoes throughout 9 different states and dumped heavy rainfall along its path, racking up $20.5 billion in damage.

    Ivan then moved eastward back toward the Atlantic Ocean, curved back toward Florida, moved over the Gulf of Mexico for a second time, and made a second landfall in Louisiana as a tropical depression.

    Luckily, it weakened quickly and didn’t produce any big impacts the second time around.

    The 1900s

    Hurricane Floyd in 1999: Floyd first originated as a tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on Sept. 2.

    It traveled west and intensified to a major Category 4 hurricane while traveling through the Bahamas.

    Floyd then turned north and paralleled the Florida coast, weakening and making landfall at Cape Fear, N.C. as a Category 2 hurricane.

    It brought heavy rain, tornadoes and a high storm surge.

    The peak of the storm surge, which reached 10 feet, occurred at high tide, and devastated the state.

    Nearly every river in eastern North Carolina reached flooding stage. Floyd dropped 17 inches of rain, which only added to the flooding.

    The cyclone caught many people unprepared, and emergency crews had to make more than 1700 water rescues.

    Floyd traveled up the east coast and also brought major flooding to northeastern cities, destroying many homes and businesses and leaving hundreds of thousands of people without power for days.

    The 1938 New England Hurricane floods Providence, R.I. Courtesy: AP

    The 1938 New England Hurricane: The New England Hurricane of 1938 first developed near the Cape Verde Islands on Sept. 9 and tracked toward the U.S.

    It continued up the east coast and eventually made landfall on Long Island, N.Y. as a major Category 3 hurricane on Sept. 21.

    Further inland, on the same day, the hurricane made a second landfall as a Category 3 hurricane between Bridgeport and New Haven.

    Storm tide reached close to 17 feet for areas, destroying many homes. Montauk temporarily became an Island.

    Many residents received little warning about the hurricane, which led to a deadly outcome. Around 500 to 700 people died.

    The Great Miami Hurricane of 1926: Back in 1926, the government centralized storm warnings from their D.C. office, then distributed those warnings to other weather offices.

    However, on the morning of Sept. 17, less than 24 hours before Florida felt the hurricane’s effects, the state didn’t receive any warnings. It wasn’t until the afternoon when the Miami Weather Bureau Office got the go ahead to post-tropical storm warnings.

    That same night, those warnings became hurricane warnings.

    By the morning on Sept. 18, the hurricane that no one prepared for made landfall in Miami, Fla. as a major Category 4 hurricane.

    The hurricane killed over 100 people in Miami.

    Many people were unfamiliar with hurricanes at the time, and while the eye was passing, they thought the hurricane was over.

    The calm lasted about 35 minutes before the wind battered the coast again, and a 10-foot storm surge quickly pushed water on land, leading to a massive amount of destruction.

    The 1800s

    The Cheniere Caminada Hurricane of 1893: Also known as The Great October Storm, it first developed in the Caribbean Sea, bringing impacts to the southern areas of Mexico.

    It then moved into the Gulf of Mexico and intensified to a Category 4 hurricane before making landfall on Cheniere Caminada, La., completely wiping the town off the map.

    Sixteen-foot storm surge flooded the entire town, and strong winds added to the destruction.

    Overall, over 2000 people died, making this hurricane one of the deadliest weather events in history.

    The 1875 Indianola Hurricane: Our last stop takes us to 1875 when a cyclone just started brewing off the coast of Africa on Sept. 1. It made its way west, intensifying, and first passing through the Caribbean.

    It emerged in the Gulf of Mexico where it slowly made its way to Category 3 status and made landfall on Sept. 16 near Indianola, Texas.

    The hurricane devastated the town, and wind gusts leveled many homes. Hundreds of people died when the storm surge washed everything away.

    The town tried to rebuild, but 11 years later, another hurricane destroyed the town, leaving the city to be abandoned.

    Atlantic hurricane season

    With the peak of hurricane season so close, we urge you to always stay prepared. This is when we see activity ramp up.

    96% of Category 3, 4 and 5 hurricanes occur from mid-August to mid-October. This isn’t to say that all hurricanes that develop will make landfall in the U.S., but it is always best to stay prepared for any scenario.

    Our team of meteorologists dive deep into the science of weather and break down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.

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    Meteorologist Shelly Lindblade

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  • Tropical Storm Hone will pass close to the Big Island late tonight

    Tropical Storm Hone will pass close to the Big Island late tonight

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    Tropical Storm Hone formed on Thursday, August 22, in the Central Pacific Ocean. 


    What You Need To Know

    • Tropical Storm Hone formed on Thursday, Aug. 22

    • The current track takes it just south of the Big Island late Saturday into Sunday

    • Five to ten inches of rain is possible over the Big Island


    Tropical Storm Hone formed in the Central Pacific Ocean on Thursday, Aug. 22. It has winds of 65 mph and is located about 185 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Tropical storm force winds extend 125 miles outward of the center. 

    It is tracking west at 15 mph and could pass just south of the Big Island Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Turn on notifications in the Spectrum News app to keep up with watches and warnings.

    Impacts on the islands will depend on the track and intensity of the tropical activity near the islands. For now, it looks to bring windy and wet conditions, especially along the southern islands over the weekend. 

    Tropical Storm Warning

    * A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Hawaii County. Tropical storm conditions are expected in this area as early as Saturday afternoon and will continue overnight into Sunday.

    Will be strongest at the higher terrians, as they blow downslope, over headlands and through passes. 

    Rainfall 

    Some strengthening is likely as it approaches the islands. Rainfall totals will range from 5 to 10 inches, with locally higher amounts possible near the windward areas of the Big Island. 2 to 4 inches of rain is possible over windward sections of the smaller islands.  

    A Flood Watch is in effect for the Big Island through Monday evening. 

     

    Surf swells will reach the Islands over the weekend and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. 

    To see current conditions and the latest forecast in your area, click here.

    Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.

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    Spectrum News Weather Staff

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  • Ernesto becomes Category 1 hurricane again; dangerous conditions for East Coast beaches

    Ernesto becomes Category 1 hurricane again; dangerous conditions for East Coast beaches

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    Ernesto was upgraded to a Category 1 hurricane on Sunday night, with the National Hurricane Center warning of dangerous conditions for East Coast beaches.

    The hurricane — which over the past week has caused major power outages and flooding in Puerto Rico and Bermuda — is out over the Atlantic, with maximum sustained winds up to 75 mph.

    The NHC expects Ernesto to cross southeastern Newfoundland late Monday into Tuesday morning.

    Ernesto is the fifth named storm and the third hurricane of this year’s Atlantic season. It made landfall in Bermuda early on Saturday, dumping 7 to 9 inches of rain and flooding parts of the island. The British Overseas Territory avoided major damage, and Ernesto is now some 200 miles northeast of Bermuda.

    High surf and life-threatening rip currents are still anticipated over the next couple of days along the U.S. East Coast.

    The entire Atlantic coast from Florida to Maine is under a high-risk rip current alert on Sunday.

    “Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely,” the National Hurricane Center warned, “which means life-threatening rip currents are likely, and dangerous for all levels of swimmers.”

    Copyright © 2024 ABC News Internet Ventures.

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  • Ernesto becomes Category 1 hurricane again; dangerous conditions for East Coast beaches

    Ernesto becomes Category 1 hurricane again; dangerous conditions for East Coast beaches

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    Ernesto was upgraded to a Category 1 hurricane on Sunday night, with the National Hurricane Center warning of dangerous conditions for East Coast beaches.

    The hurricane — which over the past week has caused major power outages and flooding in Puerto Rico and Bermuda — is out over the Atlantic, with maximum sustained winds up to 75 mph.

    The NHC expects Ernesto to cross southeastern Newfoundland late Monday into Tuesday morning.

    Ernesto is the fifth named storm and the third hurricane of this year’s Atlantic season. It made landfall in Bermuda early on Saturday, dumping 7 to 9 inches of rain and flooding parts of the island. The British Overseas Territory avoided major damage, and Ernesto is now some 200 miles northeast of Bermuda.

    High surf and life-threatening rip currents are still anticipated over the next couple of days along the U.S. East Coast.

    The entire Atlantic coast from Florida to Maine is under a high-risk rip current alert on Sunday.

    “Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely,” the National Hurricane Center warned, “which means life-threatening rip currents are likely, and dangerous for all levels of swimmers.”

    Copyright © 2024 ABC News Internet Ventures.

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  • Ernesto becomes a hurricane north of Puerto Rico

    Ernesto becomes a hurricane north of Puerto Rico

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    Ernesto has strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane. It passed by Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands early Wednesday, bringing torrential rainfall and tropical storm force winds. It continues to produce widespread flash flooding across the eastern Caribbean.

    Ernesto formed in the western Atlantic Ocean, becoming a tropical storm on Monday, Aug. 12, and became a hurricane on Wednesday, Aug. 14. It’s the fifth named storm and third hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.


    What You Need To Know

    • Ernesto is a hurricane
    • It’s moving toward Bermuda
    • It will continue to strengthen


    Ernesto is moving northwest to the north Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands with max winds of 75 mph. It’s expected to strengthen as it moves further into the western Atlantic. It could become a major hurricane as it approaches Bermuda.

    Widespread, heavy rainfall could lead to more flash flooding and mudslides across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands through Wednesday morning and early afternoon. The storm has brought rough coastal conditions as well across the eastern Caribbean.


    Most models have Ernesto passing near Bermuda as a hurricane Friday night into early Saturday morning.

    Ernesto isn’t expected to directly impact the U.S., but large swells will reach the East Coast late this week into the weekend that will cause life-threatening surf and dangerous rip currents.

    Here’s a look at the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season so far.


    More Storm Season Resources



    Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.

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  • Maps show Tropical Storm Ernesto’s path and forecast as it intensifies en route to Puerto Rico

    Maps show Tropical Storm Ernesto’s path and forecast as it intensifies en route to Puerto Rico

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    Tropical Storm Ernesto gained strength on Tuesday morning as it headed toward the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, where forecasters said it could bring powerful winds and heavy rain — up to 10 inches in some places — before potentially intensifying into a hurricane. 

    Ernesto became the fifth named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season when it formed Monday along a fast-moving path to the Caribbean. The storm comes on the heels of Hurricane Debby, which lashed parts of the southeastern United States last week with disastrous flooding and brewed up a flash of severe weather that ultimately touched much of the East Coast. Ernesto wasn’t expected to strike the mainland U.S., the National Hurricane Center said. 

    ernesto-wind.png

    NOAA/National Hurricane Center


    Maps charting Ernesto’s path, according to the latest forecasts Tuesday afternoon, suggested the storm would continue on its route toward the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, after traveling across portions of the Leeward Islands. Ernesto could either reach or pass over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by the evening, although forecasters said it was possible the system’s track would carry it near the islands instead of over them.

    Ernesto could develop into a hurricane after leaving the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, which would require its maximum sustained wind speeds to meet or exceed 74 miles per hour. That could happen by Wednesday, forecasters said, although an initial timeline for Ernesto’s strengthening suggested it wouldn’t reach the threshold necessary to warrant hurricane status until early Thursday.

    ernesto-path-2-pm.png

    NOAA/National Hurricane Center


    As of 2 p.m. ET on Tuesday, the storm was churning in the Atlantic Ocean, about 85 miles east of St. Croix and about 175 miles east-southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico, according to the hurricane center. It was traveling west-northwestward at 18 mph and packing maximum sustained winds of 60 mph.

    Hurricane watches were in effect for the U.S. Virgin Islands, Culebra, Vieques and the British Virgin Islands. Tropical storm warnings were also in effect for those places, as well as in Puerto Rico, St. Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat, and Anguilla, St. Martin and St. Barthelemy and Sint Maarten. Previous tropical storm warnings for Antigua, Barbuda and Guadeloupe were discontinued Tuesday afternoon. 

    Hurricane watches are issued when hurricane conditions are possible in a given area within 12 hours or so. Tropical storm warnings are issued when forecasters expect tropical storm conditions to impact an area within 36 hours, but meteorologists said at 2 p.m. ET on Tuesday that tropical storm conditions were expected to begin in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by nighttime, and potentially even sooner than that. Powerful winds and other weather conditions typical of a tropical storm were already happening in the Leeward Islands, they said.

    Tropical-storm-force winds extended outward up to 105 miles from Ernesto’s center on Tuesday afternoon — a sizable expansion from its 70-mile reach in the morning — according to the hurricane center. 

    Not unlike Debby, which dumped devastating and, in some instances, historic rainfall on southeastern U.S. states last week, Ernesto’s primary threat was inundation, although slightly less rain was forecast for this week compared with last week’s hurricane.

    Ernesto was expected to shower parts of the Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands with 4 to 6 inches of rain, while southeastern Puerto Rico was expected to see 6 to 8 inches, although forecasters warned that as much as 10 inches of rain could fall in certain places.

     CBS News senior weather producer David Parkinson said Tuesday morning that even a foot of rainfall could be possible in areas where the terrain might lend itself to that. Northwestern Puerto Rico was forecast to get less rain, between 2 and 4 inches in total.

    ernesto-rainfall-11-am.png

    NOAA/National Hurricane Center


    “Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding and mudslides in areas of the Leeward Islands through today, and over the Virgin Islands into Puerto Rico by later today through Wednesday,” the hurricane center said in an advisory Tuesday morning.

    Ernesto was also expected to fuel storm surge, between 1 and 3 feet above ground levels, along the eastern coast of Puerto Rico from San Juan, the capital city, to Guayama, and to the islands of Culebra and Vieques. The same peak surge forecast could materialize in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St. John and St. Croix, and in the British Virgin Islands. The hurricane center warned that surge would be accompanied by large, destructive waves in coastal regions. 

    ernesto-peak-surge-11-am.png

    NOAA/National Hurricane Center


    By Thursday morning, when Ernesto was forecast to have grown from a tropical storm to at least a Category 1 hurricane, it would likely continue tracking northward over the western Atlantic on a path toward Bermuda, where it could make landfall on Sunday, Parkinson said. He noted that the eastern seaboard of the mainland U.S. could see rip currents and larger waves than usual as an indirect consequence of the storm.

    “It is too soon to know what impacts Ernesto could bring to Bermuda late this week,” the hurricane center said Tuesday, adding that “interests there should monitor the progress of this system.”

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  • LIVE CAMERAS: Watch Ernesto move through the Caribbean

    LIVE CAMERAS: Watch Ernesto move through the Caribbean

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    It will strengthen into a hurricane in the Atlantic.

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    Spectrum News Weather Staff

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  • LIVE CAMERAS: Watch Ernesto move through the Caribbean

    LIVE CAMERAS: Watch Ernesto move through the Caribbean

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    It will strengthen into a hurricane in the Atlantic.

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    Spectrum News Weather Staff

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