August 24 Update
Tropical Storm Fernand has formed in the Atlantic, our 6th named storm of the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Thankfully this storm will stay well off the east coast of the United States, so no impacts are expected anywhere in the U.S. Elsewhere, and of greater interest to us here in Texas, a tropical wave is pushing towards the Caribbean. Current development odds are at 40% according to the NHC, and we’ll continue to monitor this system as it enters the Caribbean to see if it will eventually work it’s way into the Gulf. As of now, the odds for this storm to make it into the Gulf are low, but we’ll keep a watchful eye on it over the coming week.
August 23 Update
The remnants of what was Erin continues to spin away from the U.S., but we’re keeping a watch on two potential storms in Erin’s wake. First off, a tropical wave that now has a 90% chance of development according the the National Hurricane Center. While this area will likely be our next named storm, it will be another low impact storm, staying well off the coast of the United States. Of slightly more interest in a tropical wave approaching the Caribbean with a 20% chance of development. While that wave is expected to move into the Caribbean, there isn’t really a lot of model support for any development, so it’s unlikely to be an issue. We’ll keep an eye on things as we continue to approach the peak of hurricane season in September.
August 22 Update
Hurricane Erin will continue to weaken as it pulls away from the U.S. Life-threatening surf and rip currents will remain likely along the northeast coast through the weekend. Erin has a large wind field keeping the threat for coastal erosion, coastal flooding and surge.
Behind Erin, there are two tropical waves to watch in the Atlantic. The NHC has development odds on the tropical wave just north of the Caribbean at 80% over the next 2 days. Environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form later this weekend while moving west at about 20 mph. The tropical wave off the coast of Africa has a 50% chance for development.
August 21 Update
Coastal flooding continues along portions of the mid-Atlantic as hurricane Erin churns offshore. Erin remains a Category 2 hurricane with sustained max winds of 105 mph. Weakening is likely to begin by Friday, but is forecast to remain a hurricane into the weekend. Life-threatening surf and rip currents likely across the U.S. east coast. Erin has a large wind field increasing the threat for coastal erosion, coastal flooding and surge.
Behind Erin, there are two tropical waves to watch in the deep Atlantic. The NHC has development odds on the tropical wave just east of the Caribbean to 70% over the next 7 days. Environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form later this week while moving west at about 20 mph. The tropical wave off the coast of Africa has a 40% chance for development.
August 20 7 a.m. Update
Weather conditions will deteriorate along parts of the mid-Atlantic as hurricane Erin remains offshore. Erin remains a Category 2 hurricane with sustained max winds of 100 mph. Weakening is likely to begin by Friday, but is forecast to remain a hurricane into the weekend. Life-threatening surf and rip currents likely across the U.S. east coast. Erin has a large wind field increasing the threat for coastal erosion, coastal flooding and surge.
Behind Erin, there are two tropical waves to watch in the deep Atlantic. The NHC has development odds on the tropical wave just east of the Caribbean to 60% over the next 7 days. Environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form later this week while moving west at about 20 mph. The tropical wave off the coast of Africa has a 30% chance for development.
August 19 7 a.m. Update
Hurricane Erin is now a Category 2 hurricane with sustained max winds of 110 mph, but remains a very large storm in the western Atlantic. Life-threatening surf and rip currents likely across the U.S. east coast this week. Erin has a large wind field and is expected to become even larger increasing the threat for coastal erosion, coastal flooding and surge.
Behind Erin, there are now two tropical waves to watch this week in the deep Atlantic. The NHC has increased development odds on the tropical wave just east of the Caribbean to 60% over the next 7 days. Environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form later this week while moving west at about 20 mph. The tropical wave that just moved off the coast of Africa has a 30% chance for development.
August 18 7 a.m. Update
Hurricane Erin is now a Category 4 hurricane with sustained max winds of 130 mph. The center of the storm is staying north of the Caribbean islands, but many islands like Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the British Virgin Islands, and Turks and Caicos will still be lashed by outer bands. Life-threatening surf and rip currents likely across the U.S. east coast this week.
Behind Erin, there is a new tropical wave to watch this week in the Eastern Atlantic. The NHC has increased development odds to 50% over the next 7 days. Environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form later this week while moving west at about 20 mph.
August 17 7 p.m. Update
Hurricane Erin continues to bring heavy rain to Puerto Rico as its outer rainbands brush some of the Caribbean islands. The wind field continues to expand as the hurricane grows in size, and the tropical-storm-force winds now extend up to 205 miles from the center. Life-threatening surf and rip currents are likely along the east coast of the United State this week.
Meanwhile, the next tropical wave threatening to develop over the Atlantic now has a 40% chance of developing over the next 7 days. It is still too early to know if this one will ever reach the Gulf, so for now it is simply something to stay aware of and track until we get greater clarity on where it will go.
August 17 10 a.m. Update
Hurricane Erin is now a Category 3 hurricane with sustained max winds of 125mph and gusts up to 155mph. The center of the storm is staying north of the Caribbean islands, but many islands like Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the British Virgin Islands, and Turks and Caicos will still be lashed by outer bands. The N.H.C. is forecasting Erin to become a Cat 4 by Monday, with the eventual track keeping it off the eastern seaboard of the U.S. and away from land.
Behind Erin is a new tropical wave in the Eastern Atlantic, and for now the N.H.C. has 20% development odds over the next 7 days.
August 16 10 a.m. Update
Hurricane Erin has strengthened to a Cat 5 storm with max winds of 160mph. The storm underwent rapid intensification overnight, going from a tropical storm to a Cat 5 hurricane in less than 24 hours. The track of Erin will hold the storm far enough north to avoid a direct impact to any islands in the Caribbean, and far enough east to avoid direct impact to the eastern seaboard of the United States.
The Gulf remains quiet, with no named storms and no storms expected over the next 7 days.
August 15 1 p.m. Update
The tropical disturbance in the Gulf has moved onto land in South Texas which has killed its chances of development. This disturbance will continue to send moisture our way today and tomorrow bringing a chance for scattered downpours in Southeast Texas.
August 15 10.a.m. Update
We now have our first hurricane of the Atlantic hurricane season. Erin is now a Cat. 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Erin will continue to move west before taking a northerly turn late this weekend. It also is expected to become a major hurricane this weekend. Right now, it looks like it will stay east of the United States but it still bears watching for the east coast.
The disturbance in the Gulf that we’ve been watching is running out of time to develop as it starts to near land. The NHC has taken its development odds down to 20% as a closed circulation has not been found. This system will move into South Texas this evening and will send moisture our way during the day, bringing rain to SE Texas.
August 15 7.a.m. Update
A tropical disturbance in the western Gulf has a 50% chance of development as it drifts northwest. Shower activity has started to increase and the system could become a short-lived tropical depression before it moves inland over northeastern Mexico or southern Texas Friday afternoon or evening. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible along portions of northeastern Mexico and south Texas over the next couple of days. The surge in tropical moisture over the Gulf will also bring an increase in showers and storms to southeast Texas Friday and Saturday.
Tropical Storm Erin approaches the northernmost Leeward Islands on Friday and continues to move west. It is expected to become the first hurricane of Atlantic season and could become a major hurricane by early next week. Most modeling takes Erin to the north before nearing the East Coast but it will need to be watched closely for the east coast.
August 14 7 p.m. Update
The National Hurricane Center now has development odds on the tropical disturbance in the western Gulf at 50%. We are confident it will continue tracking northwestward toward Brownsville and make landfall in the late morning or early afternoon Friday. Regardless of development, it’s still going to push a wave of fast-moving tropical downpours through Southeast Texas Friday impacting Houston in the early afternoon. Another wave of storms will develop before sunrise Saturday out west of Houston and push into the city around midday.
August 14 1 p.m. Update
The National Hurricane Center now has development odds on the tropical disturbance in the Gulf at 40%. This system is expected to move northwest moving onto land Friday either over northern Mexico or southern Texas. This disturbance is expected to move moisture our way increasing our chances of rain Friday and Saturday.
August 14 7.a.m. Update
A tropical wave has emerged into the Bay of Campeche. Showers and thunderstorms are starting to intensify but remain disorganized. This system has a 20% chance of development as it drifts northward. Although development odds are low, it still bears watching. At the least, we could see an increase in moisture that would enhance our rain chances slightly Friday and Saturday.
Tropical Storm Erin, right now in the deep Atlantic, continues to move west and is expected to become the first hurricane of Atlantic season. It could become a major hurricane by early next week. Most modeling takes Erin to the north before nearing the East Coast but it will need to be watched closely for the east coast.
August 13 7 p.m. Update
A tropical low has now formed from the wave moving over the Yucatan Peninsula, and it will move over the warm Gulf waters overnight. The National Hurricane Center still gives it just a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm, but the Bay of Campeche is notorious for quickly spinning up storms and defying expectations. So while development odds are currently low, it still bears watching. Regardless of development, we continue to predict an increase in tropical moisture starting Friday and continuing Saturday to bring scattered tropical downpours to Southeast Texas. The winds may get a little gusty Friday along the Texas Coastal Bend as the system moves ashore near the Texas-Mexico border. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate the tropical low on Thursday afternoon, and the National Hurricane Center is now running tropical computer models on what they have labeled “Invest 98L.”
August 13 4 a.m. Update
A tropical wave near the Yucatan Peninsula is expected to emerge into the southwest Gulf tonight. It has a 20% chance of development as it moves into the Gulf. Although development odds are low, it still bears watching. At the least, we could see an increase in moisture that would enhance our rain chances slightly at the end of the week.
Tropical Storm Erin, right now in the deep Atlantic, continues to move west and is expected to become the first hurricane of Atlantic season. It could become a major hurricane by early next week. Most modeling takes Erin to the north before nearing the East Coast but it will need to be watched closely for the east coast.
August 12 7 p.m. Update
The National Hurricane Center now gives a tropical wave over the northwest Caribbean a 20% chance of spinning up into a tropical depression or storm once it moves into the western Gulf in a couple of days. Regardless of development, we should at least get clipped by some of its moisture to enhance our rain chances Friday and Saturday.
August 12
Tropical Storm Erin over the eastern Atlantic is expected to intensify into a major hurricane while skirting near the northern Caribbean this weekend into next week. It is still too early to determine what impacts, if any, Erin may bring to the Caribbean islands, Bermuda, or the east coast U.S.
Elsewhere, a cluster of showers and thunderstorms off the northeast U.S. coast has a very low chance of developing over the next 24 hours.
August 11 10 a.m.
The tropical wave that moved over the Cabo Verde Islands this weekend has now formed into Tropical Storm Erin. The system currently has winds of 45 mph, gusts up to 60 mph and a minimum central pressure of 1004 mb. This storm is moving fast, westward at 20 mph. Erin will continue to strengthen day by day as it tracks west across the Atlantic, eventually becoming a hurricane later this week. Erin will likely be the first hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic season. Then the storm is forecast to become a major hurricane Saturday as it approaches the Caribbean. From there, computer model projections show Erin taking a northerly curve into the Atlantic, staying away from the Caribbean and Gulf. So while it’s a pretty low threat to see any impacts from Erin in Houston and southeast Texas, this storm is one to watch!
August 11
A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic could become the first hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. The National Hurricane Center currently has a 90% chance of tropical development on the system, but most forecast models are in agreement about a gradual increase to hurricane strength by this weekend. The good news about this system is that it’s still very, very far away, just off the coast of Africa, and any potential U.S. impact wouldn’t happen for another 10-12 days. While the eventual path of this system isn’t set in stone, forecast models are currently showing it as more of a threat to the east coast of the US than a threat to us here in the Gulf of Mexico. Still, it’s too far out to know for sure, so we’ll be keeping a close eye on it over the next week and a half.
August 10
A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic could become the first hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. The National Hurricane Center currently has a 80% chance of tropical development on the system, but most forecast models are in agreement about a gradual increase to hurricane strength by next weekend. The good news about this system is that it’s still very, very far away, just off the coast of Africa, and any potential U.S. impact wouldn’t happen for another 10-12 days. While the eventual path of this system isn’t set in stone, forecast models are currently showing it as more of a threat to the east coast of the US than a threat to us here in the Gulf of Mexico. Still, it’s too far out to know for sure, so we’ll be keeping a close eye on it over the next week and a half.
August 9
As is typical this time of year, the tropics are heating up. We are currently monitoring 2 areas of potential development in the Gulf, with one of those looking increasingly likely to become a named storm over the next week. That particular wave is just coming off the coast of Africa, meaning that even if it were to eventually impact the U.S., it wouldn’t be for another 10 to 12 days, giving us plenty of time to keep a watchful eye on it. For now, the storm has 40% development odds, and most models eventually bring it to the east coast of the US or just off the eastern seaboard.
August 8
Dexter has dissipated and is no longer a threat. We continue to monitor two areas of potential development, one off the East Coast and one over the central Atlantic.
The tropical wave over the central Atlantic has a higher probability to develop over the next 7 days. Formation odds have increased to 60 percent. We continue to see signs that the tropics may become even more active the second half of August as wind shear relaxes across the Gulf, Caribbean, and West Atlantic. Meanwhile, the Eastern Pacific remains very active with two named storms.
August 7
Dexter continues to move over the northern Atlantic and is no threat to land.
We are still monitoring an area off the Southeast coast for a low risk of development. It may not gain tropical characteristics until it is well away from the coast.
Otherwise, there is still a moderate risk of development over the central Atlantic during the next 7 days. Formation odds have increased to 60 percent.
In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Henriette is still tracking over the open waters, and should track to the north of Hawaii. Tropical Storm Ivo has formed and is expected to bring heavy rain to the coast of Mexico over the next few days.
August 6
Tropical Storm Dexter remains in the Atlantic and poses no threat to land.
We continue to monitor two other areas for potential development. A tropical wave off the coast of Africa has a medium chance for development. Formation odds are 50 percent during the next 7 days. Another system off the East Coast also has a medium chance of forming into a tropical depression or storm over the next 7 days. Formation odds at 40 percent.
August 5
Dexter remains a tropical storm in the Atlantic and poses no threat to land.
We continue to monitor two other areas for potential development. A tropical wave off the coast of Africa has a medium chance for development. Formation odds are 50 percent during the next 7 days. Another system off the East Coast also has a medium chance of forming into a tropical depression or storm over the next 7 days. Formation odds at 40 percent.
August 4
Tropical Storm Dexter has formed in the open Atlantic Ocean off the eastern US coast, and will pose no threat to land.
We continue to monitor two other areas for potential development. A tropical wave that will emerge off the coast of Africa in the coming days has a medium chance for development. Another system off the East Coast has a low chance of forming into a tropical depression or storm over the next 7 days. Formation odds at 30 percent.
August 3
There is now a low chance for development over the eastern Atlantic as a tropical wave is expected to move off the coast of Africa in the next day or two.
Meanwhile, formation odds for tropical development have increased to 40 percent off the East Coast. A tropical low could develop thanks to the remains of a front that’s off the coast of the Carolinas.
The Pacific remains active with tropical storm Gil and two other regions with medium to highs odds of developing over the next 7 days.
August 2 Update at 7 p.m.
This evening the National Hurricane Center outlined a new potential tropical development zone over the central Atlantic. The tropical wave that could develop is still over the African continent, but we’ll keep an eye on it just in case.
August 2
The Atlantic Ocean remains quiet early this August, though there is now a low chance for development off the East Coast over the next 7 days. A tropical low could develop off the East Coast thanks to the remains of a front moving through the region. Otherwise, there are a few signs that the Saharan dust could slow down, allowing for tropical waves to potential develop in the deep tropics later this month.
Meanwhile, the Pacific remains active with hurricane Gil and two other regions with medium to highs odds of developing over the next 7 days.
August 1
Tropical development is not expected over the next 7 days. However the Climate Prediction Center has highlighted areas along the east coast and the eastern Gulf for potential tropical development from August 6th to 12th. We’ll need to monitor a cold front coming down across the Southeast U.S. as low pressure could develop along this front. Formation odds are low, but worth watching.
The Pacific Basin remains active with numerous potential storms and a couple of named storms.
July 31
Tropical development is not expected over the next 7 days. However the Climate Prediction Center has highlighted areas along the east coast and the eastern Gulf for potential tropical development from August 6th to 12th. The odds are low, but worth monitoring as we typically see more tropical activity developing in August.
July 30
No tropical development is expected during the next 7 days as the Atlantic basin remains quiet. However the Climate Prediction Center has highlighted areas along the east coast and the eastern Gulf for potential tropical development from August 6th to 12th. The odds are low, but worth monitoring as we typically see more tropical activity developing in August.
July 29 Update
While the Pacific Basin remains active with numerous potential storms and two named storms, the Atlantic Basin remains quiet for now with no active storms and no potential storms over the next 7 days.
July 28 Update
While the central and eastern Pacific basin remains active with numerous potential storms, the Atlantic Basin is staying nice and quiet with no active storms and no potential storms over the next 7 days.
July 27 Update
No ongoing storms are currently in the Atlantic Basin, and the National Hurricane Center doesn’t have any areas highlighted for potential development over the next 7 days either. That’s great news, because the longer we can keep things quiet, the better, but we should all remain vigilant. Typically the Atlantic hurricane season doesn’t see an uptick in activity until August, with the peak activity coming in September. I’m all for the quiet start, but now isn’t the time to let your guard down.
July 26 Update
While the Pacific Basin remains active with numerous potential storms, the Atlantic Basin is staying nice and quiet with no active storms and no potential storms over the next 7 days.
July 25 Update
The Gulf disturbance we’ve been monitoring this past week will push deep tropical moisture into southeast Texas Friday and Saturday. NHC continues to monitor the system for possible development, giving it a 10% chance of becoming a depression over the next day or two as it approaches the Texas Coast. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are the primary concern and strong thunderstorms will be possible. These storms could bring momentary street flooding and gusty winds over 40 mph. That’s why we’ve declared an ABC13 Weather Watch for Friday, so be sure to stay weather aware as you go about your business.
July 24 7 p.m. Update
The tropical disturbance now sits over the Gulf south of New Orleans, Louisiana. The system is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northern Gulf coast and still has only a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression. We do believe there will be scattered tropical downpours and strong thunderstorms over Southeast Texas tomorrow that could bring momentary street flooding and gusty winds over 40 mph. That’s why we’ve declared an ABC13 Weather Watch for Friday, so be sure to stay weather aware as you go about your business.
July 24 Update
A tropical disturbance over the northern Gulf still has a low risk for tropical development as it drifts westward across the Gulf. The system is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northern Gulf coast. This moisture will eventually move into southeast Texas Friday and Saturday.
July 23 7 p.m. Update
The odds for tropical development in the northern Gulf remain unchanged at just 10%. While it’s unlikely to develop, it is likely to bring a surge of tropical moisture to Southeast Texas Friday and Saturday, boosting the chances for heavy downpours to 60% and 70%, respectively.
July 23 Update
A low risk for tropical development remains in the northern Gulf this week. This system’s close proximity to land may hinder development, but if the low tracks farther away from the coast, a tropical depression or storm could develop. Regardless of development, the system is expected to bring a surge of deep tropical moisture to Southeast Texas Friday and Saturday.
July 22 7 p.m. Update
The National Hurricane Center now gives a low (10%) chance of development for the tropical disturbance predicted to cross the northern Gulf this week. Regardless of development, the tropical moisture is likely to bring scattered tropical downpours to Southeast Texas Friday and Saturday.
July 22
Showers and thunderstorms over the central Atlantic have become less likely to develop as the environmental conditions remain unfavorable for development.
We will continue to monitor the northern Gulf later this week as moisture rotates around an area of high pressure and brings showers and storms into southeast Texas. The National Hurricane Center has not tagged the area for any potential development yet.
July 21
The Atlantic is relatively quiet with just one area of possible development well off into the central Atlantic. That disturbance only has a 20% chance of development over the next 7 days.
We also will have to keep an eye on the Gulf in the second half of this week as moisture rounds an area of high pressure and moves into the northern Gulf. Where exactly that moisture will go is still in question but we’ll keep a close eye on it. The National Hurricane Center has not tagged the area for any potential development yet.
July 20
The Atlantic Basin is currently fairly quiet, but there are a couple areas of interest we’ll be keeping an eye on. I’m most interested in an influx in deep tropical moisture that spreads into the Gulf this week. It’s actually remnants from the unnamed system that brought flooding to Louisiana last week, but regardless of it’s origins or any future development, it could spread some rain into Southeast Texas by the end of the work week. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has not yet tagged the area for any potential development, so it is not at all a high concern, just something we’re monitoring.
The NHC does have a 10% chance of development on a separate system in the Central Atlantic, but it seems unlikely to develop and/or to pose a threat to Texas.
July 19
Things are quiet for the short term, with no immediate threats to Texas. The National Hurricane Center is highlighting a disturbance in the central Atlantic with a 20% chance of development, but as of now models are not particularly aggressive with development in the area.
Of slightly greater interest is the potential for the remnants of the disorganized system that brought flooding rains to Louisiana to cycle around high pressure in the southern US and end up back in the northern Gulf by the end of this upcoming week. We’ll continue to watch that potential, but as of now there is no immediate risk or concern with it other than an increase in rain chances for us late next week and into the following weekend.
July 18
The disturbance NHC has been monitoring over the past few days has moved onshore in southern Louisiana, ending the chance for tropical depression formation. Regardless of development, increasing tropical moisture will increase rain chances to southeast Texas Friday and Saturday.
We’re also monitoring another plume of Saharan dust over the Caribbean that will be moving into the Gulf this weekend. We could see some of that dust move into southeast Texas early next week. No other tropical development is expected over the next 7 days.
July 17
A tropical disturbance over the far northern Gulf this morning remains disorganized. The probability this becomes a tropical system has lowered to 30%.
Regardless of development, increasing tropical moisture will increase rain chances late tonight through early Saturday across southeast Texas. The heaviest rain is expected across portions of the Gulf coast from Louisiana to the Mississippi Valley into the upcoming weekend as this system tracks inland. There can also be flash flooding and isolated tornadoes as well.
July 16
An area of low pressure over northern Florida has a 40% chance for tropical development as it moves into the Gulf later today. The system is disorganized for now, but could emerge or redevelop over the Gulf before reaching the coast of Louisiana by Thursday. If this system moves far enough offshore, conditions look favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression could still form over the next couple of days before the system moves fully inland by the end of the week.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could cause flash flooding from the Florida Panhandle to the north-central Gulf Coast beginning late today and continuing through Saturday.
July 15
The disturbance along the east coast of Florida now has a medium chance for tropical development. Formation odds have increased to 40% as the system moves into the northern Gulf later this week. Forecast models keep the storm weak and disorganized, and the likely outcome is a messy rainmaker stretching from Florida to central Louisiana. Regardless of development, we’ll keep our eyes on it as moisture from this system could increase our potential for showers and storms later this week.
July 14 evening update
Formation odds have increased to 30% over the next 2 days and 40% over the next 7 days for the system east of Florida. The latest data supports a westward track of the system into the northeast Gulf by the middle of this week. High pressure cells to its north will continue to guide it westward across the northern Gulf. It is uncertain at this time where it moves inland but an upper Texas coast landfall this weekend is not completely off the table. Please keep up with the latest forecasts.
July 14
Formation odds have increased to 30% for a disturbance that will move into the northern Gulf later this week. Forecast models keep the storm weak and disorganized, and the likely outcome is a messy rainmaker stretching from Florida to central Louisiana. Regardless of development, we’ll keep our eyes on it as moisture from this system could increase our potential for showers and storms later this week.
July 13
We are continuing to monitor a disturbance which will move cross the Florida Peninsula and move into the northern Gulf later this week. The National Hurricane Center has this potential system with a 20% chance of development over the next 7 days. Forecast models keep the storm weak and disorganized, and the likely outcome is a messy rainmaker stretching from Florida to central Louisiana, will little to no impact in Texas. We’ll keep our eyes on it, but it currently is a low concern.
July 12 2 p.m. update
The National Hurricane Center now highlights a potential development zone that stretches across the northern Gulf from Louisiana to Florida and into the Atlantic. An area of low pressure may eventually form east of Florida then rotate westward into the Gulf next week. The early read on this pattern is that it will primarily be a rainmaker for the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to Southeast Louisiana. There is no specific threat to Texas at this time, but we’ll keep an eye on it just in case.
July 12
All quiet through the Atlantic Basin for now. There are no current active storms, and no areas of potential development over the next 7 days.
Looking ahead beyond the 7-day span, we’ll be keeping a watch on the northern Gulf as a spot that could potentially spin something up, but it is not a pressing concern, just something we’ll be keeping an eye on.
July 11
The tropics in both the Atlantic and the Pacific remain quiet with no tropical development expected over the next 7 days.
We will be monitoring an area of the northern Gulf late next week that the Climate Prediction Center has highlighted for a low chance for tropical development.
July 10
A Saharan dust cloud moving into southeast Texas from the western Gulf. We’re expecting a hazy sky and a reduction in air quality throughout the day Thursday because of this. Another plume of dust will move into the eastern Caribbean over the weekend limiting any chance for tropical development.
By late next week, the Climate Prediction Center has highlighted the northern Gulf for a low chance for tropical development as a cold front stalls.
July 9
The tropics in both the Atlantic and the Pacific remain quiet this Wednesday with no development expected over the next 7 days. A big reason why, Saharan dust! And a Saharan dust cloud currently in the western gulf will swirl north towards the Texas coast today and be over our heads tomorrow. We’re expecting a hazy sky and a reduction in air quality throughout the day Thursday because of this. Another plume of dust will move into the eastern Caribbean over the weekend.
July 8
We’re tracking a plume of Saharan Dust making it’s way towards Texas. Currently it looks like the highest concentration of dust will arrive Thursday, sticking around through Friday morning. The dust can be a lung irritant, and also help to suppress rain chances towards the end of the week.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, no tropical development is expected over the next 7 days.
July 7
Chantal is no longer considered a tropical cyclone, but the remnants of the storm are still bringing rain into the Mid-Atlantic. Chantal was responsible for flooding rains in the Carolinas, but is now weakening rapidly.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, no tropical development is expected over the next 7 days.
July 6
Chantal has weakened to a Tropical Depression after making landfall in South Carolina earlier this morning. Heavy rain is possible through both North and South Carolina. No other tropical development is expected over the next 7 days in the Atlantic Basin.
July 5
Tropical Storm Chantal has formed off the southeastern coast of the United States. Chantal is expected to make landfall in South Carolina on Sunday, and bring flooding rains throughout the Carolinas through early next week. This storm will have no impact on Texas.
July 4th 4 p.m. update:
Tropical Depression Three has formed east of Florida over the Atlantic. It is predicted to become Tropical Storm Chantal as it drifts northward toward South Carolina. This will primarily be a rainmaker for the Carolinas this weekend and early next week. Elsewhere, no tropical development is expected over the next 7 days.
July 4
An area of low pressure has developed off the east coast of Florida over the Atlantic Friday, and only time will tell if this could then organize enough to become the next named storm of the season. There’s a high chance of seeing that over the weekend or early next week. Regardless, this system will at the very least keep showers and storms in the forecast throughout the weekend and into early next week across parts of Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas. As far as future development, there will be an opportunity over the next few days where conditions could be right for a tropical depression to form. There are currently no other regions to monitor in the Atlantic. One reason for that is because of two more plumes of Saharan dust. One will impact the Gulf Coast and Texas coast Friday and Saturday with another plume moving into the eastern Caribbean early next week.
Back in the Pacific, Flossie has fizzled out but there’s another region to watch where the next named storm could form over the next 7 days.
July 3
A broad area of low pressure could develop off the coast of Florida in the Atlantic heading into the holiday weekend. This is as a front pushes towards the east Coast this week. There’s a 50% chance of a tropical system developing with this pattern, mostly likely as a weak tropical or even subtropical depression. The result will be a rainy and stormy holiday weekend for Florida and coastal areas in Georgia and the Carolinas. Otherwise, another lighter plume of Saharan dust will linger across the Gulf Coast and Southeast Texas Friday and Saturday. There’s thicker cloud of Saharan dust heading into the Caribbean early next week.
In the eastern Pacific, Flossie has weakened to a tropical storm Thursday and is forecast to dissipate entirely over the weekend. Meanwhile a new wave currently over Central America has a high chance of developing into a tropical storm over the next 7 days.
July 2
Saharan dust will be over our heads for the third day in a row, though not as thick as it was earlier this week. This plume will dissipate midweek as another plume swirling into the Gulf Coast into the weekend. Over Florida there is still an area to watch that has a 40% chance of development over the next 7 days. This wouldn’t pose a threat to Houston or Southeast Texas but will likely give a rainy holiday weekend to Florida and portions of the East Caost even is a storm doesn’t develop.
In the eastern Pacific, Flossie remains a major hurricane Wednesday as a category 3 storm. Flossie is expected to weaken later this week as it tracks away from Mexico. As of now, this system is not expected to make landfall.
July 1
Saharan dust remains over Southeast Texas today and will continue to linger on and off through the rest of the week. In the eastern Gulf, there is an area of potential development around Florida but it only has a 20% chance of development over the next 7 days.
June 30 9 a.m.
Tropical Storm Barry has officially dissipated after making landfall just south of Tampico Mexico early this morning. While Barry was disorganized and short-lived, it did bring some significant rainfall to portions of Mexico. Up next on the list is Chantal, though there is no immediate risk of another storm developing.
Of greater interest locally is the Saharan dust that has moved in to Southeast Texas today. The dust should gradually thin over the coming days, but it can be a lung irritant, especially for those with asthma or allergies.
June 29 10 a.m.
Tropical Storm Barry has officially formed in the Southwest Gulf, becoming our 2nd named storm of the 2025 hurricane season. Barry is currently moving northwest towards Mexico at 6mph, and should make landfall late tonight or early tomorrow morning, immediately weakening as it does. There are no direct impacts to Southeast Texas from this storm, but the increase in moisture throughout the Gulf will lead to increased rain chances this afternoon.
Starting tonight we’ll be monitoring a batch of Saharan Dust moving into Southeast Texas, which could stick around through at least midweek.
June 29 7 a.m.
Tropical Depression 2 is gaining steam in the southwestern Gulf today, and become the 2nd name storm of the season later today. The limiting factor in any potential development is simply time, as T.D. 2 will be moving northwest in to Mexico by tonight or early tomorrow, and will immediately weaken upon landfall. Regardless of whether or not this storm becomes Tropical Storm Barry, our local impacts are the same, just an increase in moisture leading to about a 60% chance of showers and storms.
Starting tonight we’ll be monitoring a batch of Saharan Dust moving into Southeast Texas, which could stick around through at least midweek.
June 28 4 p.m.
Potential Storm Two has developed in the Bay of Campeche and will likely become the next named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, Barry. This tropical system will continue to slowly track northwest over the weekend and is expected to strengthen to a tropical storm Sunday. This will be a short-lived system though as Potential Storm Two will move ashore over Mexico late Sunday night or early Monday morning, potentially making landfall as a weak tropical storm with 40 mph winds. Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for parts of the Mexico coast.
June 28
A disturbance in the Bay of Campeche and southwestern Gulf now has a 50% chance of development over the next 2 days. The core of the moisture from this potential system will push west in to Mexico, which means the budding storm only has today and tomorrow to develop before it will weaken over land. Regardless of whether or not this becomes a named system, the greatest impacts will miss us well to the south. We will see an uptick in moisture spreading in to Southeast Texas on Sunday, which will bring our rain chances up to 60% to close out the weekend.
As we move into the work week a plume of Saharan Dust will settle into Southeast Texas, creating hazy skies Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. The dust can also be a lung irritant, so people with asthma or allergies may want to limit time outside.
June 27
Monitoring an area of showers and storms in the northwest Caribbean for potential tropical development. Formation odds are currently 20 percent over the next 7 days as the system moves into the Bay of Campeche.
A plume of Saharan dust is expected to move into the Gulf Coast early next week.
June 26
The Atlantic is quiet once again with no tropical development expected over the next 7 days. That’s partly because of a large Saharan dust cloud that will blow into southeast Texas by Monday. Meanwhile, in the Eastern Pacific another storm is threatening to form south of Mexico over the next couple of days.
June 25
Tropical Storm Andrea has dissipated over the middle Atlantic. No other tropical development is expected over the next 7 days.
In the eastern Pacific, conditions are favorable for tropical development southwest of Central America. This storm may further develop into a tropical depression or storm as it tracks northwestward this week.
June 24 9 a.m.
Tropical Storm Andrea has formed in the middle of the Atlantic ocean and brings no threat to land. Andrea should be short lived become a post-tropical remnant low by Wednesday morning.
June 24
Tropical moisture brings an increase in rain chances to southeast Texas this week, no tropical development is expected.
A small area of thunderstorms east of Bermuda has become better organized and is likely to become a short-lived tropical storm later today before the system encounters an unfavorable environment. The system would get the name Andrea.
June 23
As deeper tropical moisture brings increasing rain chances to southeast Texas this week, no tropical development is expected. There is an area that the NHC is monitoring for a high risk for development. A cluster of showers and thunderstorms have formed east of Bermuda. Formation odds around 70% during the next 48 hours. If this system strengthens to a tropical storm, it would get the name Andrea.
In the eastern Pacific, conditions are favorable for tropical development south of Mexico this week.
June 22
Rain chances will climb in Southeast Texas this week as Gulf moisture moves in, but the tropics remain quiet. No tropical development is expected over the next 7 days anywhere in the Atlantic Basin, and it looks increasingly likely we will close out June without any named storms.
June 21
You may notice a bit of a hazy sky today thanks to some Saharan dust that has blown into Southeast Texas. While the dust can be an irritant for those with asthma or allergies, it’s also been helping to keep tropical development at bay. So far there have been zero named storms in the Atlantic, and none are expected over the next 7 days.
June 20
Some Saharan dust is expected to move into Southeast Texas. That dust can make for hazy sunsets and sunrises, but can also be a lung irritant for those with asthma or allergies. At this time, the dust will blow overhead on Friday, linger through Saturday, and be gone by Sunday.
In the eastern Pacific, Erick has weakened to a low pressure system and will continue to produce additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches to parts of southwest Mexico. The threat of flooding rains continue. The NHC is also monitoring a new area off the coast of Panama, which has a low risk of development next week. No areas are being monitored in the Atlantic.
June 19 10 a.m. update
Erick made landfall south of Oaxaca, MX Thursday morning. It was downgraded from a Category 4 to a Category 3 storm just before it made landfall; winds of 125 mph. Based on the forecast Erick is expected to rapidly weaken as it moves inland over the mountains of southern Mexico, with the system likely to dissipate by Thursday night or early Friday.
June 19
Hurricane Erick has rapidly intensified into a Category 4 hurricane before landfall in southern Mexico near Acapulco on Thursday. Heavy rainfall, storm surge and damaging winds are expected across southern Mexico. This heavy rainfall can lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in the higher terrain. There will be significant wind and rain impacts in Acapulco. Erick will also bring dangerous waves and rip currents to the Mexican coastline through the weekend.
Otherwise, the Atlantic remains quiet for now.
June 18 7 p.m. update
Hurricane Erick has rapidly intensified into a category 3 hurricane today. It is predicted to make landfall as a major hurricane in southern Mexico Thursday. This would be the first time on record a major hurricane has made landfall on Mexico’s Pacific coast in June. Heavy rainfall, storm surge and damaging winds are expected across southern Mexico for the next few days.
June 18
It remains quiet across the Atlantic basin, with no development expected over the next 7 days as Saharan dust continues to move west across the basin.
In the eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Erick is expected to become a hurricane and could make landfall as a major hurricane, (Category 3) in southern Mexico Thursday. Heavy rainfall, storm surge and damaging winds are
expected across southern Mexico for the next few days.
June 17
No tropical development is expected over the next 7 days in the Atlantic as Saharan dust continues to be draped across the basin.
In the eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Erick has formed and is spinning just west of Mexico. Strengthening is forecast, and the system is expected to become a hurricane on Wednesday. Erick could produce rainfall totals of 5 to
10 inches.
June 16
At this time, the tropics remain quiet as the Atlantic basin is filled with a Saharan dust cloud, limiting tropical development.
In the eastern Pacific, the system that was once Dalila is located to the southwest of Mexico and will continue to move westward away from land and dissipate. Another tropical system could form in the eastern Pacific just west of Costa Rica over the next day or two.
June 15
Things are staying quiet in the Atlantic as Saharan dust remains over the Basin. We continue to monitor Tropical Storm Dalila in the eastern Pacific but it’s moving west away from Mexico so it should create little to no impacts for Mexico.
June 14
No tropical development is expected in the Atlantic over the next 7 days. Part of the reason for this is the large plume of Saharan dust spread over the basin. The eastern Pacific remains active though with Tropical Storm Dalila spinning just west of Mexico.
June 13
At this time, the Atlantic basin is filled with a Saharan dust cloud, limiting tropical development. There are signs that something may try to spin up over the Bay of Campeche over the next couple of weeks, but it’s too far out to get more specific than that.
There is plenty of activity in the eastern Pacific off the western coast of Mexico.
June 12
No tropical development is expected during the next 7 days as the Atlantic basin is filled with a Saharan dust cloud, limiting any tropical development. There are signs that something may try to spin up over the Bay of Campeche over the next couple of weeks, but it’s too far out to get more specific than that.
June 11
No tropical development is expected over the next 7 days in the Atlantic as Saharan dust continues to move west across the basin. In the eastern Pacific, we have one named storm: Tropical Storm Cosme is spinning just west of Mexico. There are also two areas of potential development on the Pacific side… one has a 90% chance of development over the next 7 days.
June 10
No tropical development is expected over the next 7 days in the Atlantic as Saharan dust continues to be draped across the basin. In the eastern Pacific, we have two named storms: Barbara and Cosme spinning just west of Mexico. There is also another area of potential development that now has an 70% chance of development over the next 7 days in this same region of the eastern Pacific.
June 9
No tropical development is expected over the next 7 days in the Atlantic as a large plume of Saharan dust fills much of the basin. There is plenty of activity though in the eastern Pacific with two named storms: Barbara and Cosme spinning just west of Mexico.
June 8
No tropical development is expected during the next 7 days as the Atlantic basin is filled with a Saharan dust cloud, limiting any tropical development. There are signs that something may try to spin up over the Gulf over the next couple of weeks, but it’s too far out to get more specific than that.
In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Barbara has formed south of Mexico and is forecast to parallel the coast over the next several days. There is also an additional area for a high chance of tropical development southwest of Mexico over the next couple of days. One additional area with a low risk for development later next week south of Mexico.
June 7
The Saharan dust we’ve been tracking will continue to move out of Southeast Texas this weekend. The Atlantic basin remains quiet for now and tropical development is not expected over the next 7 days.
However, in the Eastern Pacific, three different areas are being monitored off of the coast of Mexico. Two areas are at high risk of developing over the next 48 hours, and one area is considered a low risk for development from June 12-14.
June 6
Some Saharan dust is expected to move into Southeast Texas. That dust can make for hazy sunsets and sunrises, but can also be a lung irritant for those with asthma or allergies. At this time, the dust will blow overhead on Friday, linger through Saturday, and be gone by Sunday.
Another Saharan dust cloud will spread over the Atlantic Basin in the coming days and limit any tropical development. There are signs that something may try to spin up over the Gulf late next week, but it’s too far out to get more specific than that.
June 5
Some Saharan dust is expected to move into Southeast Texas Friday and Saturday. That dust can make for hazy sunsets and sunrises, but can also be a lung irritant for those with asthma or allergies. Models have been trending down on the concentration of dust predicted to make it here, so hopefully for most folks it will be a non-issue.
June 4
A non-tropical area of low pressure remains off the coast of the southeastern U.S. and the NHC still has a low probability (10%) for potential development during the next seven days. Regardless of development, periods of heavy rainfall are possible for coastal communities of the Carolinas through Friday.
Monitoring the potential for some Saharan dust to move into Southeast Texas later this week. That dust can make for hazy sunsets and sunrises, but can also be a lung irritant for those with asthma or allergies. Models have been trending down on the concentration of dust predicted to make it here, so hopefully for most folks it will be a non-issue.
June 3
The NHC has highlighted a non-tropical area of low pressure off the coast of the southeastern U.S. for potential development during the next two to three days. The low could gradually develop some subtropical or tropical characteristics later this week while moving northeastward at 10 to 15 mph.
Monitoring the potential for some Saharan dust to move into Southeast Texas by this weekend. That dust can make for hazy sunsets and sunrises, but can also be a lung irritant for those with asthma or allergies. Over the past couple of days models have been trending down on the concentration of dust predicted to make it here, so hopefully for most folks it will be a non-issue.
June 2
Our quiet start to hurricane season looks to continue for at least another week, as the NHC is predicting no tropical development over the next seven days. Over the span of the next two to three weeks the National Hurricane Center is highlighting an area of potential development in the southern gulf and western Caribbean which could eventually produce a tropical cyclone, but it is not an immediate threat and for now it remains just an area we will watch closely.
Of greater interest to us here in Southeast Texas is the potential for some Saharan dust to move in by this weekend. That dusk can make for hazy sunsets and sunrises, but can also be a lung irritant for those with asthma or allergies. Over the past couple of days models have been trending down on the concentration of dust predicted to make it here, so hopefully for most folks it will be a non-issue.
June 1
While the NHC is expecting an active hurricane season (more on that below), we are off to a quiet start on this first day of hurricane season. There are currently no active storms in the Atlantic Basin, nor are any storms expected to develop in the next seven days.
May 29
The 2025 Atlantic Hurricane season begins on June 1 and lasts through the end of November.
After a record season for the Gulf Coast in 2024, which included Hurricane Beryl making landfall in southeast Texas, ABC13 Meteorologist Elyse Smith has a preview of what to look out for this year.
Let’s start with the El Niño, or La Niña. This hurricane season is more than likely going to be an ENSO neutral year, or a “La Nada.” This means the Trade Winds over the Atlantic are in their usual position at normal strength. There’s no major influence on jet stream patterns or ocean temperatures like there would be during an El Niño or La Niña. The other top driver will be ocean temperatures, as it is every year. The warmer the water, the higher the likelihood for storms to develop and intensify.
Storm development can depend on the status of the West African Monsoon. That’s what sends clusters of thunderstorms to the Atlantic, which can then become a tropical system. What can limit that from happening is Saharan Dust, which usually occurs earlier in the season. So, when it comes to storms that could threaten southeast Texas, local weather patterns and those over the Caribbean can be the final factor. If the jet stream is over the Gulf, there’s higher wind shear that can weaken tropical systems.
NOAA’s 2025 hurricane prediction is above-normal activity in the Atlantic this year. The outlook for 2025 predicts a 30% chance of a near-normal season, a 60% chance of an above-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season. The agency is forecasting a range of 13 to 19 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 6-10 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3-5 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher).
Researchers with Colorado State University are calling for above normal conditions, calling for 17 tropical storms, with nine of those becoming hurricanes, and four potential major hurricanes.
Another way to preview an upcoming hurricane season is through analog years. These are past years which, based on similar atmospheric conditions, could be comparable to what this season might look like. Dr. Phil Klotzbach with Colorado State University told ABC13 Meteorologist Elyse Smith that these years are 1996, 1999, 2006, 2008, 2011, and 2017.
Some of these years will stand out to Texans, and for good reason: 2008 for Hurricane Ike and 2017 for Harvey. However, consider 2006 and 1999, which were very different seasons for the Texas coast. 2006 was a slightly below normal year in terms of the number of storms, and no hurricanes made landfall in the U.S. Tropical storms did hit Florida that year. 2011 was active for the Atlantic and Bay of Campeche, but not necessarily the Gulf
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