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  • NHC monitoring disturbance in Caribbean as models agree on soggy conditions in Florida

    NHC monitoring disturbance in Caribbean as models agree on soggy conditions in Florida

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    On the heels of Hurricane Helene’s devastating landfall in Florida, the National Hurricane Center is watching another system in the Caribbean Sea that has the potential to impact the state.While models are not confident on the intensity of this system or if it will even become something tropical, the NHC says Floridians should “monitor” the disturbance — though, there is plenty of time to do so. The timing of the systems impacts still look to be next week, with heavy rainfall being a huge concern.Currently, a broad trough of low pressure is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, but the NHC says environmental conditions could support some gradual development as the system moves northwestward into the Gulf of Mexico.According to the NHC, a tropical depression could form over the weekend once the system fully enters the Gulf. While most major models agree on the system moving toward Florida after that, models are not yet consistent enough to say what may form. As models fluctuate back and forth in regards to path and intensity, it’s important to take the data loosely. If the system develops, models will become more consistent and accurate, giving officials a better idea of direction and strength. For now, that data is not available.Formation chances remain pretty low for now, holding at just 0% in the next 48 hours and 40% in the next seven days — a decrease from previous advisories.This Caribbean disturbance is threatening Florida less than a week after Hurricane Helene slammed the Big Bend region as a monster Category 4 storm. Many Florida residents are still recovering from intense flooding, damaging storm surge and extreme wreckage from winds topping 140 mph.>> Chopper 2 video shows extensive Hurricane Helene damage in St. Pete Beach, Tampa Bay, Fort Myers>> Photos, videos show Helene’s eerie approach, intense impacts and devastating aftermath in FloridaAs the peak of hurricane season continues, the NHC is monitoring several systems, including Kirk and Invest 91-L. Click here for the latest.Related: WESH 2 Hurricane Survival Guide 2024Related: Surviving the Season | 2024 Hurricane Special from WESH 2First Warning WeatherStay with WESH 2 online and on-air for the most accurate Central Florida weather forecast.RadarSevere Weather AlertsDownload the WESH 2 News app to get the most up-to-date weather alerts.The First Warning Weather team includes First Warning Chief Meteorologist Tony Mainolfi, Eric Burris, Kellianne Klass, Marquise Meda and Cam Tran.

    On the heels of Hurricane Helene’s devastating landfall in Florida, the National Hurricane Center is watching another system in the Caribbean Sea that has the potential to impact the state.

    While models are not confident on the intensity of this system or if it will even become something tropical, the NHC says Floridians should “monitor” the disturbance — though, there is plenty of time to do so. The timing of the systems impacts still look to be next week, with heavy rainfall being a huge concern.

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    Currently, a broad trough of low pressure is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, but the NHC says environmental conditions could support some gradual development as the system moves northwestward into the Gulf of Mexico.

    According to the NHC, a tropical depression could form over the weekend once the system fully enters the Gulf. While most major models agree on the system moving toward Florida after that, models are not yet consistent enough to say what may form.

    As models fluctuate back and forth in regards to path and intensity, it’s important to take the data loosely. If the system develops, models will become more consistent and accurate, giving officials a better idea of direction and strength. For now, that data is not available.

    Formation chances remain pretty low for now, holding at just 0% in the next 48 hours and 40% in the next seven days — a decrease from previous advisories.

    This content is imported from Twitter.
    You may be able to find the same content in another format, or you may be able to find more information, at their web site.

    This Caribbean disturbance is threatening Florida less than a week after Hurricane Helene slammed the Big Bend region as a monster Category 4 storm. Many Florida residents are still recovering from intense flooding, damaging storm surge and extreme wreckage from winds topping 140 mph.

    >> Chopper 2 video shows extensive Hurricane Helene damage in St. Pete Beach, Tampa Bay, Fort Myers

    >> Photos, videos show Helene’s eerie approach, intense impacts and devastating aftermath in Florida

    As the peak of hurricane season continues, the NHC is monitoring several systems, including Kirk and Invest 91-L. Click here for the latest.

    Related: WESH 2 Hurricane Survival Guide 2024

    Related: Surviving the Season | 2024 Hurricane Special from WESH 2

    First Warning Weather

    Stay with WESH 2 online and on-air for the most accurate Central Florida weather forecast.

    Download the WESH 2 News app to get the most up-to-date weather alerts.

    The First Warning Weather team includes First Warning Chief Meteorologist Tony Mainolfi, Eric Burris, Kellianne Klass, Marquise Meda and Cam Tran.

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  • Formation chances rise as NHC monitors disturbance that could develop, impact Florida soon

    Formation chances rise as NHC monitors disturbance that could develop, impact Florida soon

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    The National Hurricane Center is watching an area of interest in the Caribbean that some models say could have a path toward Florida.Area of interest in the Caribbean SeaAccording to the NHC, a broad area of low pressure is expected to form late this weekend or early next week over the western/northwestern Caribbean Sea. As the system slowly starts to move north or northwest after that, officials say gradual development is possible. The NHC says a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week.While most major models agree on the low developing this weekend, there is some disagreement on where the system will go after that.Some model runs show the system staying weaker and moving west toward Texas and Mexico, while other model runs show the system getting stronger and moving north toward Florida.Because the low hasn’t even formed yet, it’s too early to know exactly where the system will head or how strong it will become. If the system forms, more data will become available and models will become stronger. For now, WESH 2’s First Warning Weather team is closely monitoring the area of interest and will bring you the latest updates. The NHC has raised formation chances for this system, saying there’s a medium (40%) chance of formation in the next week. In the next 48 hours, formation chances are nearly 0%.In addition to the Caribbean disturbance, the NHC is watching two other areas of interest, including the remnants of Gordon.GordonEven though Gordon is not expected to affect land, the NHC says it is still monitoring the system for potential development again.Showers and thunderstorms associated with Gordon, which was a tropical storm at one point, remain unorganized. However, officials say environmental conditions could become marginally conducive for development later this week, making it possible for a tropical depression or tropical storm to re-form.Formation chances are somewhat significant, holding at 20% for the next 48 hours and 40% for the next seven days.Models do not show Gordon impacting Florida.Central and Western Subtropical AtlanticThe NHC tagged a new area of interest on Thursday morning in the Atlantic Ocean. According to the NHC, the well-defined area of low pressure located a few hundred miles to the northwest of Gordon’s remnants has increasing shower and thunderstorm activity.Environmental conditions are only marginally conducive for development, the NHC says, but some additional development is possible as the system meanders over the open waters. Formation chances remain low for now, sitting at 10% for the next 48 hours and 20% in the next seven days.>> RELATED: WESH 2 Hurricane Survival Guide 2024>> WATCH: Surviving the Season | 2024 Hurricane Special from WESH 2First Warning WeatherStay with WESH 2 online and on-air for the most accurate Central Florida weather forecast.RadarSevere Weather AlertsDownload the WESH 2 News app to get the most up-to-date weather alerts.The First Warning Weather team includes First Warning Chief Meteorologist Tony Mainolfi, Eric Burris, Kellianne Klass, Marquise Meda and Cam Tran.

    The National Hurricane Center is watching an area of interest in the Caribbean that some models say could have a path toward Florida.

    Area of interest in the Caribbean Sea

    According to the NHC, a broad area of low pressure is expected to form late this weekend or early next week over the western/northwestern Caribbean Sea. As the system slowly starts to move north or northwest after that, officials say gradual development is possible.

    The NHC says a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week.

    While most major models agree on the low developing this weekend, there is some disagreement on where the system will go after that.

    Some model runs show the system staying weaker and moving west toward Texas and Mexico, while other model runs show the system getting stronger and moving north toward Florida.

    This content is imported from Twitter.
    You may be able to find the same content in another format, or you may be able to find more information, at their web site.

    Because the low hasn’t even formed yet, it’s too early to know exactly where the system will head or how strong it will become. If the system forms, more data will become available and models will become stronger.

    For now, WESH 2’s First Warning Weather team is closely monitoring the area of interest and will bring you the latest updates.

    The NHC has raised formation chances for this system, saying there’s a medium (40%) chance of formation in the next week. In the next 48 hours, formation chances are nearly 0%.

    In addition to the Caribbean disturbance, the NHC is watching two other areas of interest, including the remnants of Gordon.

    Gordon

    Even though Gordon is not expected to affect land, the NHC says it is still monitoring the system for potential development again.

    Showers and thunderstorms associated with Gordon, which was a tropical storm at one point, remain unorganized. However, officials say environmental conditions could become marginally conducive for development later this week, making it possible for a tropical depression or tropical storm to re-form.

    Formation chances are somewhat significant, holding at 20% for the next 48 hours and 40% for the next seven days.

    Tropical Wave Info

    Models do not show Gordon impacting Florida.

    Central and Western Subtropical Atlantic

    The NHC tagged a new area of interest on Thursday morning in the Atlantic Ocean.

    According to the NHC, the well-defined area of low pressure located a few hundred miles to the northwest of Gordon’s remnants has increasing shower and thunderstorm activity.

    Environmental conditions are only marginally conducive for development, the NHC says, but some additional development is possible as the system meanders over the open waters.

    Formation chances remain low for now, sitting at 10% for the next 48 hours and 20% in the next seven days.

    >> RELATED: WESH 2 Hurricane Survival Guide 2024

    >> WATCH: Surviving the Season | 2024 Hurricane Special from WESH 2

    First Warning Weather

    Stay with WESH 2 online and on-air for the most accurate Central Florida weather forecast.

    Download the WESH 2 News app to get the most up-to-date weather alerts.

    The First Warning Weather team includes First Warning Chief Meteorologist Tony Mainolfi, Eric Burris, Kellianne Klass, Marquise Meda and Cam Tran.

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