The foreign affairs committee of the Turkish parliament on Tuesday gave its approval for Sweden to join NATO, reported Turkey’s Anadolu news agency.
This brings Sweden a step closer to joining the Western military alliance. It also comes after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan delayed action on Sweden’s bid for a year, arguing the country is too friendly toward Kurdish activists regarded by Ankara as terrorists.
Erdoğan has also linked the approval of Sweden’s accession to the sale of F-16 fighter jets by the United States to Turkey — something that’s currently pending approval by the U.S. Congress.
The general assembly of the Turkish parliament now needs to give its final green light before Sweden can officially become a full NATO member. However, no date for this plenary vote has been set.
The unanimous approval of all current NATO member countries is required for any new state to join the military alliance.
Hungarian leader Viktor Orbán has also been stalling Sweden’s accession bid, saying last week that there was no “great willingness” from Hungarian lawmakers to approve it. This makes Hungary the last NATO member country that hasn’t started the ratification process.
Sweden and Finland both dropped their neutrality and asked to join the alliance in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Finland joined the alliance in April.
BRUSSELS — As long as it takes? Or as long as we feel like it?
For nearly two years, the EU has promised to support “Ukraine and its people for as long as it takes” — taking in millions of Ukrainians fleeing Russia’s war of aggression, supporting Kyiv with financial and military aid, rallying diplomatic support across the world, and shrinking its economic and energy ties with Russia.
But the bloc’s 27 member states are now struggling to agree unanimously on a longer-term €50 billion aid package for Kyiv, as well as on opening the door to future membership as this week’s European Council summit commences. At a time when $60 billion in military and humanitarian aid for Ukraine is stuck in the U.S. Congress, support from Brussels is essential to Kyiv’s continuing fight against Russia.
The decision to open the EU’s door to Ukraine could also be existential to the future of the bloc, as it means incorporating a country of nearly 40 million people mired in a war with a powerful neighbor. Failure to agree on such a historic decision, meanwhile, would tarnish the image of European unity, not only on the EU’s long-term support for Ukraine but also on its overall geopolitical ambitions.
The summit will be a “decisive one,” Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo said at a press conference last Friday.
The prospect of joining the bloc is the biggest support the EU can provide to Ukraine, an EU diplomat said. “Let’s not forget that a part of the reason this war started — apart from whatever went [on] in the head of Putin — is Ukraine turning to the West.”
The EU is now testing the limits of the promise “as long as it takes,” said Lithuania’s Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis, one of Ukraine’s staunchest supporters. “Apparently as long as it takes means as long as we can agree. If we cannot, obviously that will have huge repercussions, first of all in Ukraine, but not just there.”
Litmus test
It’s not the first test of the EU’s unity on supporting Ukraine. The bloc’s salvo of sanctions against Russia were oftenwatered down because of the economic concerns of various EU countries, sometimes leading to weeks of horse-trading and internal wrangling. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán in particular has regularly used his veto power to win concessions for Budapest, such as exemptions for Russian oil imports, but has so far never prevented an agreement.
This time around, however, Orbán is rejecting not only extra money for Ukraine but also opening accession talks with Kyiv, calling the latter proposal “unfounded and poorly prepared.” Instead, Orbán wants a strategic debate on the EU’s Ukraine policy andis calling for a cease-fire between Russia and Ukraine.
Half a dozen senior EU officials and diplomats from across the bloc stressed that Hungary is isolated in its position, and that the 26 other member countries still support Ukraine and want Kyiv to be a part of the club in the long term.
Privately, however, many admit the war is no longer a top priority in the day-to-day of most EU leaders.
Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán | John Thys/AFP via Getty Images
“Doubts are on the rise,” said one EU official, who like the others quoted was granted anonymity to speak candidly. “How desperate is the situation on the battlefield? How much more money will we pour into this black hole? Populists across Europe will ride this wave in the coming months.”
As the June European elections approach, EU leaders are wary of favoring Ukraine over the daily concerns of their own citizens. Up to seven EU countries have stressed that the €50 billion to Kyiv must be linked to money for other European priorities such as tackling migration, precisely to avoid domestic criticism.
“We now see an emerging group of countries who sometimes look like they have second thoughts about Ukraine becoming a member of the EU,” said one senior EU diplomat, citing Austria’s desire that future membership for Ukraine be linked with next steps on Bosnia-Herzegovina’s EU membership.
Inertia
The standstill on the battlefield doesn’t help. Months of static frontline combat between Ukraine and Russia have consumed weapons and money with no sign of a military breakthrough for Kyiv.
The first six months of next year will be brutal for Ukraine, said Neil Melvin, a director at the RUSI think tank, with Russia managing to accelerate arms production and supplies while aid packages from Ukraine’s allies languish.
Ukraine and its supporters argue that is exactly why the West should quickly provide more of the weapons that are needed to win — instead of falling into Russia’s trap.
Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Wednesday that now is the time to demonstrate “what it means to support Ukraine ‘for as long as it takes.’ Ukraine is not only fighting against the invader, but for Europe. Joining our family will be Ukraine’s ultimate victory.”
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told POLITICO that neither Ukraine nor the EU had a viable alternative to continuing to fight.
“The next country that Russia may attack will be a European country, it will not be somewhere else,” he said. “If one side blinks it will be a very bad moment for that side … It’s not us who has to blink, we have to make Russia blink.”
Increasingly, some EU diplomats are wondering whether Orbán has joined Putin in strategically waiting for Western support for Ukraine to disintegrate.
With the election victory of a far-right party in the Netherlands; with a Russia-friendly leader taking power in Slovakia; and with an expected far-right surge in the next European election, Orbán’s claim that “the winds of change are here” seems prescient. A victory by former President Donald Trump in next year’s U.S. election could further undermine Western support for Kyiv.
“Factors of inertia and doubt, which have characterized EU enlargement for years, are coming again to the fore and are cooling down the geostrategic rationale for opening up the EU to new members,” said Kai-Olaf Lang of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.
Hopes abide?
Europe is pulling out the stops to avoid a car-crash summit, with EU leaders and their aides in frantic negotiations with Hungary on a deal to give Orbán more EU money in exchange for lifting his veto on aid to Ukraine. If that strategy fails, leaders are cooking up alternative plans to get the money to Ukraine via bilateral funding.
A deal on enlargement will prove more difficult, EU diplomats said. In theory that could be kicked down the road until EU leaders reconvene in March.
Politically, however, such a delay would be a massive blow to Ukraine and to the EU’s image, especially as Brussels has reassured Ukraine a decision would arrive sooner than later.
Immediately after the war began in February 2022, von der Leyen said “Ukraine is one of us.” During a visit to Kyiv this fall she told the country’s parliament she was confident the decision on membership could still be taken this year. European Council President Charles Michel has said he hopes Ukraine will join the EU by 2030 — an ambitious date in any scenario.
The decision to open the door to the EU is no less important as spiritual sustenance, said Ian Bond of the Centre for European Reform. “The signal that you send by starting talks is that you are now on a train which is going towards a destination. If the Hungarians bar the door of the carriage and say you are not getting in, this is psychologically a blow to the Ukrainians.”
Joshua Posaner, Hanne Cokelaere, Pieter Haeck, Jacopo Barigazzi, Nicholas Vinocur, Aitor Hernández–Morales, Clea Caulcutt and Camille Gijs contributed reporting.
BRUSSELS — Turkey has promised Sweden it will ratify its bid to join NATO “within weeks,” Swedish Foreign Minister Tobias Billström said Wednesday.
Referring to his Turkish counterpart Hakan Fidan, with whom he spoke on Tuesday, Billström said: “He told me that he expected the ratification to take place within weeks. And of course, we don’t take anything for granted from the side of Sweden, but we look forward to this being completed.”
The Turkish parliament’s foreign affairs commission recently abruptly postponed a session to vote on Sweden’s accession bid.
According to Billström, the top Turkish envoy didn’t put forward any new conditions in the conversation. “There were no new demands from the Turkish government, so we look [at] our part as being fulfilled,” he told reporters at the NATO foreign ministerial meeting.
Apart from Turkey, Hungary has also not ratified Sweden’s membership status in the alliance.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán regularly pushes the EU to the cliff edge, but diplomats are panicking that his hostility to Ukraine is now about to finally kick the bloc over the precipice.
A brewing political crisis is set to boil over at a summit in mid-December when EU leaders are due to make a historic decision on bringing Ukraine into the 27-nation club and seal a key budget deal to throw a €50 billion lifeline to Kyiv’s flailing war economy. The meeting is supposed to signal to the U.S. that, despite the political distraction over the war in the Middle East, the EU is fully committed to Ukraine.
Those hopes look likely to be knocked off course by Orbán, a strongman who cultivates close ties with Russian dictator Vladimir Putin and who is widely seen as having undermined democracy and rule of law at home. He is demanding the whole political and financial process should be put on ice until leaders agree to a wholesale review of EU support for Kyiv.
That gives EU leaders a massive headache. Although Hungary only represents 2 percent of the EU population, Orbán can hold the bloc hostage as it is supposed to act unanimously on big strategic decisions — and they hardly come bigger than initiating accession talks with Ukraine.
It’s far from the first time Orbán is throwing a spanner in the works of the EU’s sausage making machine. Indeed, he has been the most vocal opponent of sanctions against Russia ever since Putin’s annexation of Crimea in 2014. But this time is different, EU diplomats and officials said.
“We are heading toward a major crisis,” one EU official said, who was granted anonymity to discuss confidential deliberations. One senior EU diplomat warned this could become “one of the most difficult European Councils.”
Orbán is playing the long game, said Péter Krekó, director of the Budapest-based Political Capital Institute. “Orbán has been waiting for Europe to realize that it’s not possible to win the war in Ukraine and that Kyiv has to make concessions. (…) Now, he feels his time is coming because Ukraine fatigue is going up in public opinion in many EU countries.”
In theory, there is a nuclear option on the table — one that would cut Hungary out of EU political decisions — but countries feel that emergency cord is toxic because of the precedent it would deliver on EU disunity and fragmentation. For now, the European leaders seem to be taking to their usual approach of fawning courtship of the EU’s bad boy to try to coax out a compromise.
European Council President Charles Michel, whose job it is to forge deals between the 27 leaders, is leading the softly-softly pursuit of a compromise. He travelled to Budapest earlier this week for an intense two hour discussion with Orbán. While the meeting did not reach an immediate break-through, it was useful to understand Orbán’s concerns, another EU official said.
It’s all about the money
Some EU diplomats interpret Orbán’s threats as a strategy to raise pressure on the European Commission, which is holding back €13 billion in EU funds for Hungary over concerns that the country is falling foul of the EU’s standards on rule of law.
Others however said it’s a mistake not to look beyond the immediate transactional tactics. Orbán has long been questioning the EU’s Ukraine strategy, but was largely ignored or portrayed as a puppet for Russian President Vladimir Putin.
“We were watching it, amazed, but maybe we didn’t take enough time to actually listen,” a second senior EU diplomat acknowledged.
Some EU diplomats interpret Orbán’s threats as a strategy to raise pressure on the European Commission | Peter Kohalmi/AFP via Getty Images
Increasingly, the leader of the Fidesz party has been isolated in Brussels. Previous peacemakers such as former German Chancellor Angela Merkel or other Orbán-whisperers from the so-called Visegrád Four — Slovakia, Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic — are no longer there. The expected comeback of Donald Tusk for Poland, a pro-EU and anti-Russian leader, will only heighten Orbán’s status as the lonely, defiant hold-out.
“There is no one left to talk sense into Orbán,” a third EU official said. “He is now undermining the EU from within.”
Guns on the table
As frustration grows, the EU is weighing how to deal with the Hungarian threats.
In theory, Brussels could come out with the big guns and use the EU’s so-called Article 7 procedure against Hungary, used when a country is considered at risk of breaching the bloc’s core values. The procedure is sometimes called the EU’s “nuclear option” as it provides for the most serious political sanction the bloc can impose on a member country — the suspension of the right to vote on EU decisions.
Because of those far-reaching consequences, there is reticence to roll out this option against Hungary. When EU leaders brought in “diplomatic sanctions” against Austria in 2000, the day after the party of Austrian far-right leader Jörg Haider entered the coalition, it backfired. Many Austrians were angry at EU interference and anti-EU sentiment soared. Sanctions were lifted later that year.
There is now a widespread feeling in Brussels that Article 7 could create a similar backlash in Budapest, fueling populism and in the longer term potentially even trigger a snowball effect leading to an unintended Hungarian exit of the bloc.
Given those fears, diplomats are doubling down on ways to work around a Hungarian veto.
One option is to split the €50 billion from 2024 to 2027 for Ukraine into smaller amounts on an annual basis, three officials said. But critics warn this option would fall short in the goal of offering greater predictability and certainty to Ukraine’s struggling public finances. It would also send a bad political signal: if the EU can’t make a long term commitment to Ukraine, then how can it ask the U.S. to do the same?
The same dilemma goes for the EU’s planned military aid. EU countries could use bilateral deals rather than EU structures such as the European Peace Facility to send military aid to Ukraine — effectively freezing out Budapest. Yet this would mean that the EU as such plays no role in providing weapons, an admission of impotence that is hard to swallow and hurts EU unity toward Kyiv.
It’s “obvious” that concern is growing about EU political support for Ukraine, Lithuania’s Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis told POLITICO. “At first it’s Hungary, now, more countries are doubtful whether there’s a path.”
Asked about Hungary’s objections, Ruslan Stefanchuk, the chairman of Ukraine’s parliament, told POLITICO: “Ukraine is going to the European Union and Ukraine has followed all the recommendations (…) I want to make sure that all member states respect the progress that Ukraine has demonstrated.”
The long game
That leaves one other default option, and it’s an EU classic: kicking the can down the road and pushing key decisions on Ukraine policy to early next year. Apart from Hungary, Berlin is also struggling with the consequences of Germany’s top court wiping out €60 billion from a climate fund — thus creating a huge hole in its budget.
Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán, center, during a summit in Brussels | Nicolas Maeterlinck/Belga via AFP/Getty Images
Such a delay would also lead to stories about fractured EU unity, said another EU diplomat. But “in the real world it wouldn’t be a problem because the Ukraine budget is fine until March 2024.”
But for others, buying time is tricky. Europe is heading to the polls in June next year, which makes sensitive decision-making harder. “Getting closer to the elections will not make things easier,” the second EU official said, while stressing that fast decisions are key for Ukraine. “For Zelenskyy, this is existential to keep up morale on the battlefield.”
Both, like another official quoted in this story, were granted anonymity to speak freely.
Increasingly, Brussels is also worried about Orbán’s long game.
There is a constant stream of attacks coming from Budapest against Brussels, on issues ranging from democratic deficit to culture wars over the EU’s migration policy. The latest example is an aggressive euroskeptic advertising campaign featuring posters targeting European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen herself. The posters show von der Leyen next to Alexander Soros, the son of George Soros, chair of the Open Society Foundations, with the line: “Let’s not dance to the tune they whistle!”
“Nobody feels comfortable given what’s going on in Hungary,” Budget Commissioner Johannes Hahn told reporters on Thursday. “It’s very difficult to digest given the campaign that he’s leading against the EU and against the president. When he’s asking his people many things, he’s not asking if the Union is so much worse than USSR why is he not leaving?”
But Orbán seems more eager to hijack the EU from within rather than jump ship, as the U.K. did. Increasingly, he also feels the wind is blowing his way after the recent election results in Slovakia and the Netherlands, said Krekó, where the winners are on the same page as him when it comes to Ukraine, migration or gender issues.
Hungary’s prime minister was quick to congratulate the winner of the Dutch election, the vehemently anti-EU Geert Wilders, saying that “the winds of change are here.”
“Orbán plays the long game,” the third EU official said. “With Wilders, one or two more far-right leaders in Europe and a potential return of Trump he could soon be less isolated than we all think.”
Gregorio Sorgi, Nicolas Camut, Stuart Lau and Jakob Hanke Vela contributed reporting.
CORRECTION: This story has been amended to correct a quote on Ukraine’s budget.
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Barbara Moens, Nicholas Vinocur and Jacopo Barigazzi
THE HAGUE — One line in Geert Wilders’ inflammatory pitch to Dutch voters will haunt Brussels more than any other: a referendum on leaving the EU.
Seven years after the British voted for Brexit, a so-called Nexit ballot was a core plank of the far-right leader’s ultimately successful offer in the Netherlands.
And while Wilders softened his anti-Islam rhetoric in recent weeks, there are no signs he wants to water down his Euroskepticism after his shock election victory.
Even if Dutch voters are not persuaded to follow the Brits out of the EU — polling suggests it’s unlikely — there’s every indication that a Wilders-led government in The Hague will still be a nightmare for Brussels.
A seat for Wilders around the EU summit table would transform the dynamic, alongside other far-right and nationalist leaders already in post. Suddenly, policies ranging from climate action, to EU reform and weapons for Ukraine will be up for debate, and even reversal.
Since the exit polls were announced, potential center-right partners have not ruled out forming a coalition with Wilders, who emerged as the clear winner. That’s despite the fact that for the past 10 years, he’s been kept out by centrists.
For his part, the 60-year-old veteran appears to be dead serious about taking power himself this time.
Ever since Mark Rutte’s replacement as VVD leader, Dilan Yeşilgöz, indicated early in the campaign that she could potentially enter coalition talks with Wilders, the far-right leader has worked hard to look more reasonable. He diluted some of his most strident positions, particularly on Islam — such as banning mosques — saying there are bigger priorities to fix.
On Wednesday night, with the results coming in, Wilders was more explicit: “I understand very well that parties do not want to be in a government with a party that wants unconstitutional measures,” he said. “We are not going to talk about mosques, Qurans and Islamic schools.”
Even if Wilders is willing to drop his demand for an EU referendum in exchange for power, his victory will still send a shudder through the EU institutions.
And if centrist parties club together to keep Wilders out — again — there may be a price to pay with angry Dutch voters later on.
Brexit cheerleader Nigel Farage showed in the U.K. that you don’t need to be in power to be powerfully influential.
Winds of change
Migration was a dominant issue in the Dutch election. For EU politicians, it remains a pressing concern. As migrant numbers continue to rise, so too has support for far-right parties in many countries in Europe. In Italy last year, Giorgia Meloni won power for her Brothers of Italy. In France, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally remains a potent force, in second place in the polls. In Germany, the Alternative for Germany has also surged to second place in recent months.
In his victory speech, Wilders vowed to tackle what he called the “asylum tsunami” hitting the Netherlands.
“The main reasons voters have supported Wilders in these elections is his anti-immigration agenda, followed by his stances on the cost of living crisis and his health care position,” said Sarah de Lange, politics professor at the University of Amsterdam. Mainstream parties “legitimized Wilders” by making immigration a key issue, she said. “Voters might have thought that if that is the issue at stake, why not vote for the original rather than the copy?”
For the left, the bright spot in the Netherlands was a strong showing for a well-organized alliance between Labor and the Greens. Frans Timmermans, the former European Commission vice president, galvanized support behind him. But even that joint ticket could not get close to beating Wilders’ tally.
Next June, the 27 countries of the EU hold an election for the European Parliament.
On the same day voters choose their MEPs, Belgium is holding a general election. Far-right Flemish independence leader Tom Van Grieken, who is also eyeing up a major breakthrough, offered his congratulations to Wilders: “Parties like ours are on their way in the whole of Europe,” he said.
Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán was celebrating, too: “The winds of change are here!”
Pieter Haeck reported from Amsterdam and Tim Ross reported from London.
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Tim Ross, Pieter Haeck, Eline Schaart and Jakob Hanke Vela
People younger than 18 have been barred from visiting this year’s World Press Photo exhibition in Budapest, after Hungary’s right-wing populist government determined that some of its photos violate a contentious law restricting LGBTQ+ content.
The prestigious global photo exhibition, on display in Hungary’s National Museum in Budapest, receives more than 4 million visitors from around the world every year. Showcasing outstanding photojournalism, its mission is to bring visual coverage of a range of important events to a global audience.
But a set of five photos by Filipino photojournalist Hannah Reyes Morales led a far-right Hungarian lawmaker to file a complaint with the country’s cultural ministry, which found that they violate a Hungarian law that prohibits the display of LGBTQ+ content to minors.
Now, even with parental consent, those under 18 are no longer allowed to visit the exhibition.
The photographs, which document a community of elderly LGBTQ+ people in the Philippines who have shared a home for decades and cared for each other as they age, depict some community members dressed in drag and wearing make up.
Joumana El Zein Khoury, executive director of World Press Photo, called it worrisome that a photo series “that is so positive, so inclusive,” had been targeted by Hungary’s government. It was the first time that one of the exhibitions had faced censorship in Europe, she said.
“The fact that there is limited access for a certain type of audience is really something that shocked us terribly,” Khoury told The Associated Press. “It’s mind-boggling that it’s this specific image, this specific story, and it’s mind-boggling that it’s happening in Europe.”
The move to bar young people from the exhibition was the latest by Hungary’s government, led by nationalist Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, to restrict the availability of materials that promote — or depict — homosexuality to minors in media, including television, films, advertisements and literature.
While the government insists that the 2021 “child protection” law is designed to insulate children from what it calls sexual propaganda, it has prompted legal action from 15 countries in the European Union, with the bloc’s Commission President Ursula von der Leyen calling it “a disgrace.”
Dora Duro, the far-right lawmaker who filed the complaint over the photos, said she was outraged when she visited the exhibition, and rejected claims that the government’s decision limited freedom of the press or free expression.
“How the LGBTQ minority lives is not the biggest problem in the world,” Duro told the AP. “What we see as normal, what we depict and what we convey to (children) as valuable influences them, and this exhibition is clearly harmful to minors and, I think, to adults too.”
Reyes Morales, the photographer, said in an emailed statement that the subjects in her photographs serve as “icons and role models” to the LGBTQ+ community in the Philippines, and that they are “not dangerous or harmful.”
“What is harmful is limiting visibility for the LGBTQIA+ community, and their right to exist and to be seen,” Reyes Morales wrote. “I am beyond saddened that their story might not reach people who need it most, saddened that their story is being kept in a shadow.”
Hungary’s cultural ministry did not respond to an interview request.
Tamas Revesz, a former World Press Photo jury member who has been the organizer of Hungary’s exhibitions for over three decades, said many of the photographs in the exhibition — such as coverage of the war in Ukraine — are “a thousand times more serious and shocking” than Morales’ series.
But given that around half of the some 50,000 people who visit the exhibition in Hungary each year are students, he said, thousands of Hungarian youth will now be unable to view the World Press Photo collection — even those images that are free of LGBTQ+ content.
“The goal of each image and each image report is to bring the news to us, the viewer, and a lot of reporters risk their lives for us to have that knowledge,” Revesz said. “Everyone is free to think what they want about the images on display. These pictures were taken without prejudice, and we too should take what we see here without prejudice.”
Former U.S. President Donald Trump appeared to confuse the leaders of Turkey and Hungary in a campaign speech in New Hampshire on Monday.
“There’s a man, Viktor Orbán, anybody ever hear of him?” Trump said, referring to the Hungarian prime minister.
“He’s probably, like, one of the strongest leaders anywhere in the world. He’s the leader of Turkey,” the former president said. Turkey’s president is Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
Trump added that Orbán has a “front” with Russia. Neither Turkey nor Hungary has a border with Russia.
Trump has previously praised Orbán, who opposes migration and LGBTQ rights, and refers to his governing style as an “illiberal democracy.” Trump hosted him at the White House in 2019.
In turn, Orbán was the first European leader to endorse Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign, and urged him to “keep fighting” after the former president was hit with a criminal indictment.
“Come back, Mr President. Make America great again and bring us peace,” Orbán told a meeting of the U.S. Conservative Political Action Coalition earlier this year.
Katalin Karikó and Drew Weissman have been awarded the Nobel prize in medicine for their work on messenger RNA technology, which enabled the development ofthe first vaccines against COVID-19.
The Nobel Assembly at Sweden’s Karolinska Institute, which is responsible for selecting the winner of one of science’s most prestigious prizes, said on Monday that the discoveries “were critical for developing effective mRNA vaccines against COVID-19.”
mRNA vaccines work by delivering into the body genetic instructions for building proteins that are present in the virus being immunized against. That spurs cells to create those proteins, which the body then recognizes as foreign and attacks; training the immune system and creating protection against the actual virus.
In the early 1990s, Karikó, from Hungary, was working at the University of Pennsylvania looking at how mRNA could be used in medicine. She was joined in her research by U.S. colleague Weissman, an immunologist specializing in dendritic cells, which are responsible for the body’s immune response during vaccination.
Together, the scientists discovered how to alter mRNA so that it wasn’t immediately detected by the body’s immune system and could deliver its payload to the target cells. Further work by the pairimproved the efficiency of mRNA, so that it stimulated more protein production.
“Through their discoveries that base modifications both reduced inflammatory responses and increased protein production, Karikó and Weissman had eliminated critical obstacles on the way to clinical applications of mRNA,” said the Nobel Assembly.
As well as laying the groundwork for mRNA vaccines, Karikó was employed from 2013 to 2022 at vaccine developer BioNTech, which, together with Pfizer, produced the first COVID-19 vaccine approved in the EU.
Pharma companies are now developing mRNA vaccines and therapies for a swathe of different diseases including flu, tuberculosis, HIV, malaria, Lyme disease, Zika and various types of cancer.
The award comes with a cash prize of 11 million Swedish krona (€950,000). In 1951, Max Theiler won the prize for his work helping discover the vaccine against yellow fever.
The West’s united front on Ukraine is showing more cracks than ever — and Kyiv has little choice but to grin and bear it.
More than 500 days into Russia’s full-scale invasion, Republican lawmakers in Washington DC on Saturday derailed an effort to unleash a major tranche of aid for the war-torn country.
Coming just nine days after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited Washington to plead for continued support, the blockage underscored a hardening of attitudes among congressional Republicans who want to end Washington’s assistance for Kyiv.
At the same time as Republicans were voting ‘no’ on Capitol Hill, voters in Slovakia elected a pro-Russian prime minister, Robert Fico, who vows not to send a “single round” of ammunition to Ukraine, and looks set to team up with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbàn to oppose further European support for Kyiv. Poland, once the most dependable of Kyiv’s allies, made the shock announcement on September 20 that it would no longer send weapons.
These warning signs don’t amount to a profound policy shift in Washington or Brussels. U.S. President Joe Biden has vowed to stand by Ukraine despite the budget fiasco. And most European leaders remain staunchly supportive of Ukraine, with some €50 billion in continued support for the country due to be signed off in coming months, according to two EU diplomats who were granted anonymity to talk about the non-public deliberations.
Asked to comment on the fact that the U.S. stopgap bill lacks any funding for Ukraine, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said: “The president has built a coalition of more than 50 countries to provide aid to support Ukraine … There is very strong international coalition behind Ukraine and if Putin thinks he can outlast us, he’s wrong.”
Josep Borrell, the EU’s top diplomat, said he was “sure” the decision to block funding would be reconsidered. “We’ll continue to be on your side,” he told reporters in Kyiv Monday when asked how the U.S. budget shortfall would affect Ukraine.
Ukrainian politicians — who’ve faced criticism from the United States and United Kingdom for appearing insufficiently “grateful” for Western aid — sounded similarly upbeat. “We’re working with both sides of the Congress to ensure it doesn’t repeat again, under any circumstances,” said Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, appearing next to Borrell.
‘Words of gratitude’
But despite these attempts to put a positive spin on the situation, open criticism of aid among senior Western politicians — coupled with Elon Musk’s online attacks against Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy — sends a chilling message to Kyiv.
The message that the U.S. and Europe will stick with Kyiv — no matter what — is starting to ring hollow.
Ukraine remains heavily dependent on Western support not just to fuel its battle against Russia, but also to keep its public administration ticking over. According to its projected budget for 2024, Ukraine expects to receive $42.8 billion from international donors in the coming year, a big chunk of which would come from the United States. In June, Ukraine’s finance minister, Serhiy Marchenko, told POLITICO that the U.S. should “step in and at least provide us mid-term relief.”
At the same time as Republicans were voting ‘no’ on Capitol Hill, voters in Slovakia elected a pro-Russian prime minister, Robert Fico, who vows not to send a “single round” of ammunition to Ukraine | Janos Kummer/Getty Images
Asked whether the holdup on Capitol Hill now leaves Kyiv with a budget shortfall, a spokesperson for Marchenko declined to comment.
Europe is also worried about what to expect from Washington. While most EU countries agree on supporting Ukraine, aid for Kyiv is tied to a broader review of the EU’s long-term budget on which there is no agreement. And since all EU27 countries need to back the deal, it may prove difficult to pass by year-end, which is when the EU’s current support for Ukraine runs out.
“There is not much political discussion on the financial support for Ukraine. That is not the difficult piece of the puzzle. But the puzzle overall is very hard, that no one dares to predict anything,” said an EU diplomat who asked not to be named to discuss the confidential budget talks.
Indeed, Hungary’s Orbán has already said he’s not prepared to finance Ukraine unless it reviews its treatment of Hungarian minorities living in the country. Although critics describe this stance as a tactical veto meant to unlock funds that Brussels is withholding from Budapest over a separate rule-of-law dispute, Orbán may use the election of his like-minded Slovakian peer to toughen his negotiating tactics.
“Member states remain broadly supportive of aid for Ukraine,” said a second EU diplomat. “Of course the big elephant in the room is, ‘What if this is the precursor to the U.S. just abandoning Ukraine?’ While it’s in the back of everyone’s minds, I just don’t think that’s going to happen now or anytime soon.”
Amid uncertainty about whether Ukraine will be able to finance its budget and keep its war effort going, Ukrainian officials are trying hard to put on a brave face and appear thankful. Speaking to POLITICO last week, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal insisted on his “gratitude” toward Poland, an ally that has been locked in a dispute with Kyiv over grain exports, and has now vowed not to send any more weapons.
“I would like to express the words of gratitude to the Polish nation and all Polish families for the support that they have given and have provided to Ukrainian refugees,” he said.
Gregorio Sorgi and Suzanne Lynch contributed reporting in Brussels and Eun Kim in Washington DC.
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Nicholas Vinocur, Paola Tamma and Veronika Melkozerova
WARSAW — The campaign language ahead of this year’s Polish general election is apocalyptic — painting it as an existential battle for the soul of the EU’s fifth most populous country — but the likeliest outcome is a chaotic stalemate.
If the ruling nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) hangs on to power for a third term there isn’t much more it can do to wreck Poland without quitting the EU — and there’s little prospect of that. If the opposition pulls off a stunner and wins it will be so hemmed in by PiS-controlled courts and institutions and by a hostile president that it won’t be able to do much more than tweak the optics rather than surgically remove the growths added by Law and Justice.
Internationally, Poland is too important to be kept in the deep freeze forever; with a fast-growing economy, a big military and a key role in supplying Ukraine, it is no Slovakia. A PiS win will mean greater efforts to find some accommodation with Warsaw; an opposition victory will dramatically improve the atmosphere, but there are limits to even an opposition-ruled Poland’s coziness on many issues that are key to the EU.
An opposition victory could weaken PiS’s institutional advantages that it’s been using to skew the playing field in its favor — potentially leading to a longer-term shift away from the right-wing party that’s dominated Polish politics for the past eight years. But it’s no quick fix.
According to PiS, opposition leader Donald Tusk is a disloyal Pole who is working on behalf of both Germany and Russia to turn the country into a puppet state by letting in hundreds of thousands of migrants.
Oh, and he also wants to raise the retirement age.
Jarosław Kaczyński, the PiS chief and Poland’s real ruler, thundered to his supporters on Sunday: “Donald Tusk had to agree to make Poland subservient to Germany and therefore to Russia.”
“Stop Tusk. Only PiS can ensure Poland’s security,” trumpets an election ad.
For the opposition, led by Tusk’s Civic Coalition, another four-year term with Law and Justice at the helm means real danger for the future of Poland as a democratic country, as well as undermining the rights of women thanks to a draconian abortion law and an LGBTQ+ minority subjected to attacks by ruling party officials.
“Law and Justice is poison,” Tusk said at a campaign rally this summer. “Every day, every month they are in power is a growing threat to our security.”
Those fighting words are designed to budge the electorate; POLITICO’s Poll of Polls shows PiS at 37 percent while Civic Coalition is at 30 percent — meaning any new government is going to require cobbling together a coalition with smaller parties.
Polish Deputy Prime Minister and leader of the Law and Justice (PiS) ruling party Jarosław Kaczyński has promised that if his party wins, he’ll continue the judicial system changes that have so distressed the EU | Marian Zubrzycki/EPA-EFE
It’s not all rhetorical spin.
“There is always a tendency to say this is the most important election since 1989 [the election that ended communist rule], but this time there is a somewhat stronger case for making that argument. The level of polarization is evidence for that,” said Aleks Szczerbiak, a professor of politics at the University of Sussex in the U.K.
High stakes
The outcome is going to be watched very closely, from Brussels to Kyiv.
For the European Union, the hope is that if PiS is ousted Poland will return to the ways of Tusk, who served as Polish prime minister during a remarkable era of comity with the EU and with Germany before going on to become president of the European Council. As an added sweetener, Brussels will likely quickly move to release €36 billion in loans and grants from the bloc’s pandemic recovery fund held up over worries that PiS’s court system reforms undermine judicial independence.
The EU court cases, parliamentary resolutions, infringement procedures and Article 7 effort to strip Poland of its voting rights would also likely be shelved.
The German government would also sigh with relief at seeing the back of a government that has fiercely needled Berlin at every occasion and also called for up to $1.3 trillion in compensation for the destruction caused by the Nazi occupation; although the opposition hasn’t cut itself off from that demand.
Poland has been one of Ukraine’s fiercest advocates during the war — sending tanks and jet fighters ahead of most other countries, offering diplomatic support, receiving millions of refugees who fled the early days of the war, and serving as the main transshipment point for weapons and other aid heading east.
But the election campaign has soured that relationship.
Warsaw led the charge in blocking Ukrainian grain exports, worried it would undercut Polish prices and harm farmers — a key voting bloc. When Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy dared to criticize Poland at the U.N., a furious President Andrzej Duda compared Ukraine to a drowning man who poses a danger to his rescuers.
“We say to the Ukrainian authorities — do not do what goes against the interests of Polish farmers,” lectured Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, who said last month that Poland would stop sending weapons to Ukraine while it rebuilt its own stocks.
Poland’s Foreign Minister Zbigniew Rau skipped this week’s summit in Kyiv. Getting relations back on an even keel will take “a titanic effort,” he said.
Tusk promised a reset: “We cannot allow good Polish-Ukrainian relations to depend on the negligence and chaos created by the Polish government.”
Polish opposition leader and former premier, Donald Tusk addresses participants of a rally in Warsaw on October 1, 2023 | Wojtek Radwanski/AFP via Getty Images
A PiS victory will send shock waves across Europe.
Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán, Kaczyński’s closest ally, has been building his illiberal democracy for over a decade. With Rome governed by right-winger Giorgia Meloni, Slovakian populist Robert Fico scoring a victory in last week’s election, and the far-right Alternative for Germany party rising fast in the polls, the signal is that the right is gaining strength across the Continent.
That’s likely to further erode the tenuous hold on power of centrist parties in the European Parliament in next year’s election.
It will also block any chance of agreeing on a migration pact to tackle the thousands of people crossing EU borders and kill any effort to reform EU institutions ahead of an expansion to Balkan countries and Ukraine.
“A PiS government will block reforms on issues like taxation and foreign policy that threaten the national veto right. There is also a different approach to migration,” warned a senior Polish government official who spoke on condition of being granted anonymity. “We have another model of the European Union.”
Reality bites
However, despite the rhetoric, the reality is that the election is unlikely to mean a radical worsening of relations between Warsaw and Brussels.
Kaczyński has promised that if his party wins he’ll continue the judicial system changes that have so distressed the EU, after admitting that the reforms made so far haven’t worked. He vowed: “This time it will succeed.”
But his party has already sent out peace feelers to Brussels, trying and so far failing to backtrack on some changes to top courts to get the Commission to release the blocked funds.
If Law and Justice wins a third term, EU institutions will have to decide whether they want to continue the confrontation, or else make peace with a Poland that has firmly chosen a populist course.
“It takes two to tango. Maybe there will be a will to compromise on both sides,” said the Polish government official.
Permanent ostracism is also untenable, as Hungary showed this week by playing a skillful game of getting the EU to release blocked funds to avoid Orbán vetoing aid for Ukraine.
Despite opposition charges that PiS wants to pull Poland out of the EU in a Polexit — a cry from parts of the far right — Law and Justice says it has no intention of following the U.K. out of the bloc.
The results of the Polish general election could influence the upcoming European Parliament election and Poland’s presidential election in 2025 | Wojtek Radwanski/AFP via Getty Images
“PiS’s direction has always been toward the EU,” said PiS MP Radosław Fogiel.
And an opposition-led Poland would also be no easy partner for Brussels. After the initial flush of warmth, perennial problems will return like Poland’s continued addiction to coal-fired power, its reluctance to join the euro, and a suspicion of large flows of migrants — also voiced by Tusk during the campaign.
“Even if there is a change of government, there will still be very strong public opposition to a change in migration policy,” said Jacek Czaputowicz, a former foreign minister under the PiS government, speaking at the Warsaw Security Forum.
Poland’s large and powerful farming sector will be a huge issue for Ukrainian grain exports and for future efforts to recalibrate the EU to accommodate new and poorer members.
Ukrainian politicians hope that the war of words with Warsaw will die down after the election.
“War is exhausting for Ukraine and for Poland too, so emotions are felt on both sides, in addition, the election campaign in Poland, that tends to politicize everything, even economic issues,” said Andriy Deshchytsia, former Ukrainian ambassador to Poland, adding: “However, the Russian threat is still here, just like a year ago … so we don’t have any other choice but to sit and search for a compromise.”
As bad as it gets
At home, the election is also unlikely to have the earth-shattering impact that’s being voiced during the campaign.
PiS has done a lot of damage over the last eight years, and it’s difficult to see how much more it can do while still remaining a member of the EU. The state media is a Euro-lite version of North Korea, state-controlled corporations are stuffed with party hacks, the highest courts are firmly under political control, much of the Roman Catholic Church functions as a PiS acolyte, the police don’t mind clubbing the occasional opposition protester, the prosecutor’s office has become a political plaything — dropping investigations of the well-connected while fiercely pursuing the regime’s opponents.
But expanding that control will be difficult in an economy that has a large and vibrant private sector, a strong civil society and hefty private media.
Non-government media operators are owned by foreign companies that have shown no sign of backing out of the Polish market; an earlier effort to tangle with American-owned TVN, the country’s largest private television network, was quickly slapped down by Washington.
The EU is also working on a rulebook that aims to secure media independence against political pressure and foster pluralism; Commission Vice President Věra Jourová warned it “will be a major warning signal for member states.”
An opposition win would dramatically change the optics with Brussels, and a new government would scrap further legal changes to courts. But any effort to roll back those reforms, and any other PiS legislation, will run into a significant hurdle: President Duda.
There is a chance that Poland’s President Andrzej Duda will cooperate, as Tusk has threatened to prosecute him for violating the constitution | Leon Neal/Getty Images
There is no poll predicting an opposition win so gigantic that it would gain a two-thirds majority of MPs needed to overturn presidential vetoes. The country’s top courts are filled with judges appointed by the current government, meaning legislation will also be caught up in endless litigation.
“Even if they win an outright majority, which doesn’t look likely at the moment, this is an internally divided opposition and they face a president who will be able to veto their legislation,” said Szczerbiak.
However, there is a chance that Duda will cooperate, as Tusk has threatened to prosecute him for violating the constitution.
“Duda is a dealmaker,” said Wawrzyniec Smoczyński, a political analyst and president of the New Community Foundation. “Tusk is a big risk for him and the way to lessen that is to strike a deal.”
If Duda doesn’t play ball, a non-PiS government could be limited to purging state companies, the government and the media of PiS loyalists.
“Overnight you will get the public media back. Everyone will be booted out of there,” Tusk pledged.
Those small steps are unlikely to satisfy opposition backers yearning for revenge against Law and Justice and a clean break with the last eight years.
“For Poland, it’s all fucked up,” said Paweł Piechowiak, taking part in last week’s massive opposition march in Warsaw while waving huge Polish and EU flags, his cheeks painted in rainbow colors. “You can’t wreck this country any more than it is.”
But those personnel changes may have longer term consequences by switching public media away from backing PiS, which could undercut that party’s base of support in rural and small-town Poland.
That could change the political dynamic, especially if the next government is short-lived and there is an early election; it could also influence the upcoming European Parliament election and Poland’s presidential election in 2025.
“The parliamentary election could be viewed as the first round of a longer campaign,” said Szczerbiak.
Veronika Melkozerova contributed reporting from Kyiv.
Poland’s prime minister has told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to never “insult” Poles again, returning to harsh rhetoric towards Kyiv after the Polish president had sought to defuse a simmering dispute between the two countries over the issue of Ukrainian grain imports.
Zelenskyy angered his neighbours in Warsaw – a key military ally against Russia – when he told the United Nations General Assembly in New York this week that Kyiv was working to preserve land routes for its grain exports amid a Russian blockade of the Black Sea, but that “political theatre” around grain imports was helping Moscow’s cause.
“I … want to tell President Zelenskyy never to insult Poles again, as he did recently during his speech at the UN,” Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki told an election rally on Friday, according to the State-run news agency PAP.
Earlier on Friday, Poland’s President Andrzej Duda said the dispute between Poland and Ukraine over grain imports would not significantly affect good bilateral relations, in an apparent move to ease tensions.
“I have no doubt that the dispute over the supply of grain from Ukraine to the Polish market is an absolute fragment of the entire Polish-Ukrainian relations,” Duda told a business conference. “I don’t believe that it can have a significant impact on them, so we need to solve this matter between us.”
Duda’s comment followed after Prime Minister Morawiecki was reported as saying that Poland would no longer send weapons to Ukraine amid the grain dispute.
“We are no longer transferring weapons to Ukraine because we are now arming Poland with more modern weapons,” Morawiecki said on Wednesday, according to a local media report.
Poland is scheduled to hold parliamentary elections on October 15, and Morawiecki’s ruling nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party has come in for criticism from the far right for what it says is the government’s subservient attitude to Kyiv.
Polish Foreign Minister Zbigniew Rau said in an article by Politico that Poland wanted to see “a strong Ukrainian state emerge from this war with a vibrant economy”, and that Warsaw “will continue to back Ukraine’s efforts to join NATO and the EU”.
However, speaking to reporters in New York, Rau said that while Poland had not changed its policy towards Ukraine, there had been a “radical change in Polish public opinion’s perception” of the countries’ relationship.
Asked by the PAP news agency what it would take to improve this perception, Rau said repairing the atmosphere would require a “titanic” diplomatic effort.
Slovakia, Poland and Hungary imposed national restrictions on Ukrainian grain imports after the EU executive decided not to extend its ban on imports into those countries as well as fellow EU members Bulgaria and Romania.
The countries have argued that cheap Ukrainian agricultural goods – meant mainly to transit further west and to ports – get sold locally, harming their own farmers.
Speaking in Canada on Friday, Zelenskyy did not mention the tension with Poland but said that when Ukraine lacked support, Russia was strengthened.
“You help either Ukraine or Russia. There will be no mediators in this war. By weakening assistance to Ukraine, you will strengthen Russia,” Zelenskyy told reporters after a meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
“And a powerful Russia and what to expect from it… I think history in books and witnesses has long since answered this question. If someone wants to take a risk, fine, weaken assistance to Ukrainians,” he said, according to a statement posted on the Ukrainian president’s website.
“To be frank and honest, freedom, democracy and human rights must be fought for,” he added.
The Kremlin said on Friday that it was watching the situation between Kyiv and Warsaw closely, adding that tensions would inevitably grow between Kyiv and its European allies as the dispute over grain escalates.
“We predict that these frictions between Warsaw and Kyiv will increase. Friction between Kyiv and other European capitals will also grow over time. This is inevitable,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters.
“We are, of course, watching this closely,” Peskov said, calling Kyiv and Warsaw “the main” centres of Russophobia.
Warsaw has stopped supplying weapons to Kyiv and is focusing on arming itself instead, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said Wednesday, amid a dispute over Ukraine’s agricultural exports.
“We are no longer transferring weapons to Ukraine, because we are now arming Poland with more modern weapons,” Morawiecki said in an appearance on Polish television channel Polsat, according to European Pravda. “If you don’t want to be on the defensive, you have to have something to defend yourself with,” he added, insisting, though, that the move wouldn’t endanger Ukraine’s security.
Morawiecki’s terse comments came as tensions escalated between Kyiv and the EU over the past week, after the European Commission moved to allow Ukrainian grain sales across the bloc, ending restrictions on grain imports which five eastern EU countries originally sought to protect their farmers from competition.
Poland, Hungary and Slovakia responded to the Commission’s move by imposing unilateral bans on Ukrainian grain imports, in apparent violation of the EU’s internal market rules. Kyiv struck back by filing lawsuits against the three countries at the World Trade Organization.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Tuesday took a thinly veiled swipe at those imposing grain bans, telling the U.N. General Assembly: “It is alarming to see how some in Europe, some of our friends in Europe, play out solidarity in a political theater — making a thriller from the grain. They may seem to play their own role but in fact they are helping set the stage to a Moscow actor.”
While Zelenskyy didn’t specifically name-check Poland, Warsaw summoned Kyiv’s ambassador to the foreign ministry in response.
Morawiecki also delivered a “warning” to “Ukraine’s authorities,” earlier telling Polsat, “if they are to escalate the conflict like that, we will add additional products to the ban on imports into Poland. Ukrainian authorities do not understand the degree to which Poland’s farming industry has been destabilized.”
Poland is in the midst of a high-stakes campaign ahead of an election next month, with the right-wing Law and Justice government battling for reelection. While Warsaw initially threw its weight behind the campaign to help Kyiv fend off Russia’s attempted invasion, that full-throated support has waned as the consequences of supporting Ukraine for its own farmers have become more evident.
Ukraine has filed lawsuits against Poland, Hungary and Slovakia at the World Trade Organization (WTO) over their decision to ban grain imports, in a row that has split the EU and could hurt Kyiv’s prospects of joining the bloc.
“It is fundamentally important for us to prove that individual member states cannot ban the import of Ukrainian goods. That is why we are filing lawsuits against them in the WTO,” First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy of Ukraine Yuliya Svyridenko said in a statement.
Svyridenko added that the lawsuits, together with pressure from the European Commission and other member countries, “will help restore normal trade between Ukraine and neighboring countries, as well as show solidarity between us.”
The decision comes after the three countries rebelled against a European Commission decision last Friday to end temporary import restrictions — implemented in the spring in an attempt to mitigate a supply glut — and once again allow Ukrainian grain sales across the EU.
The bans by the three central European countries are intended to protect their farmers from a surge in exports from grain superpower Ukraine, following Russia’s blockade of Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea.
“We hope that these states will lift their restrictions and we will not have to clarify the relationship in the courts for a long time,” Svyridenko said.
BUDAPEST — Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has accused other European leaders of fearmongering over the threat of climate change at the expense of ignoring the problem of falling birth rates.
“Europe is acting out of fear and fear makes us defeatist,” said the right-wing leader on Thursday. “We say there’s no future, and as such, this is becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy.”
Hungary is one of a number of Central and Eastern European countries that are trying to reverse falling birth rates. All countries across the European Union have fewer than the 2.1 children per woman needed to keep the population stable without migration.
This aging population raises thorny questions for governments around how to fund the welfare state as the number of older people increases and the proportion of people of working ages falls.
In his address at the two-day Budapest Demographic Summit, a pro-family conference organized by the Hungarian government, Orbán said that “Western elites” were ignoring the question of demographics, and were instead busy with “carbon quotas.”
“They require people to live in fear of an approaching Armageddon,” he said.
Orbán’s government has made birth rates a key political priority, investing around 5 percent of the country’s GDP into family-creation policies like tax breaks and subsidized loans for new houses. Hungary’s birth rate is no longer the lowest in the EU, where it was a decade ago, instead hovering a little above the bloc’s average.
On Thursday, the Hungarian leader ramped up these policies, announcing that the government would lower the threshold for women to receive a lifetime exemption from paying tax from four children to three.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who attended the summit in Budapest, praised Hungary’s efforts to encourage families to have more children and warned that demographic change is an existential risk for her country.
“In our view, demography is not just another of the main issues of our nation. It is the issue on which our nation’s future depends,” she said. “We need the courage to say that demographers’ projections for the future are very worrying.”
Europe has registered birth rates below replacement level for decades, but it’s an issue that has been gaining more attention, especially in Silicon Valley. Elon Musk recently cited Orbán’s efforts approvingly.
Katalin Novák, Hungary’s president and the organizer of the conference, echoed Orbán’s messaging on misguided European priorities. She said that while “alarm bells are ringing about climate change, little attention is being paid to the real problem.
“The demographic winter is turning into an Ice Age,” she said.
Ukraine is threatening to take Brussels and EU member countries to the World Trade Organization if they fail to lift restrictions on its agricultural exports to the bloc this month.
The country’s grain exports — its main trade commodity — are currently banned from the markets of Poland, Hungary and three other EU countries under a deal struck with the European Commission earlier this year to protect farmers from an influx of cheaper produce from their war-torn neighbor.
The glut, triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its blockade of the country’s traditional Black Sea export routes, has driven a wedge between Ukraine and the EU’s eastern frontline states which have been among the strongest backers of Kyiv’s military fightback.
The restrictions, already extended once, are due to expire on September 15. Amid speculation that Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will let them lapse, Poland and Hungary have threatened to impose their own unilateral import bans, in violation of the bloc’s common trade rules.
“With full respect and gratitude to Poland, in case of introduction of any bans after [September 15], Ukraine will bring the case against Poland and the EU to the World Trade Organization,” Taras Kachka, Ukraine’s deputy economy minister, told POLITICO.
Kyiv has argued that the restrictions violate the EU-Ukraine free-trade agreement from 2014.
Kachka’s comments backed up a warning this week from Igor Zhovka, a senior aide to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. If Brussels fails to act against the countries that violate the trade agreement, Kyiv “reserves the choice of legal mechanisms on how to respond,” Zhovka told Interfax-Ukraine.
The Ukrainian foreign ministry said Kyiv reserved the right to initiate arbitration proceedings under its association agreement with the EU, or to apply to the WTO.
“We do not intend to retaliate immediately given the spirit of friendship and solidarity between Ukraine and the EU,” explained Kachka. But, he added, the systemic threat to Ukrainian interests “forces us to bring this case to the WTO.”
Crisis warning
Russia’s war of aggression and partial occupation has cut Ukraine’s grain production in half, compared to before the war, while Moscow’s withdrawal in July from a U.N.-brokered deal allowing safe passage for some seaborne exports has raised concerns that EU-backed export corridors won’t be able to cope.
The bloc’s agriculture commissioner, Janusz Wojciechowski, struggled to explain to European lawmakers at a hearing on Thursday how Brussels would handle the situation after September 15.
Wojciechowski, who is Polish, also appeared to sympathize with the right-wing government in Warsaw, which has latched on to the fight over Ukrainian grain as a campaign issue ahead of mid-October general elections in which it is seeking an unprecedented third term.
The bloc’s agriculture commissioner, Janusz Wojciechowski, struggled to explain to European lawmakers how Brussels would handle the situation after September 15 | Olivier Hoslet/EFE via EPA
The curbs should be extended at least until the end of the year; otherwise “we will have a huge crisis again in the five frontline member states,” Wojciechowski said, adding that this was his personal position and not that of the EU executive.
The Commission’s decision in April to restrict imports to the five countries, which came with a €100 million aid package, met widespread disapproval from other EU governments and European lawmakers for undermining the integrity of the bloc’s single market.
Kachka, in written comments sent in response to questions from POLITICO, said there was no evidence of price deviations or a significant increase in grain supplies that would justify extending the import restrictions. Kyiv had engaged in “constructive cooperation” with the Commission, the five member states, as well as Moldova, a key transit hub for Ukrainian exports to the EU.
“We got a lot of support for ensuring better transit of the goods through the territory of neighboring member states, including Poland and Hungary,” Kachka said. “During [the] last two months we significantly advanced cooperation with Romania on transportation of goods from Ukraine.”
Ukraine has no chance of winning the war against Russia — and Donald Trump is the West’s only hope, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán told controversial American TV host Tucker Carlson.
In an interview Tuesday, Orbán said that Kyiv’s victory against Moscow “is not just a misunderstanding. It is a lie. It’s impossible … [Ukrainians] will run out earlier … of soldiers than the Russians. What finally will count is boots on the ground and the Russians are far stronger.”
Only the U.S. can end the war, the Hungarian leader added.
“We missed the historic opportunity” to admit Ukraine to NATO, Orbán told Carlson in the interview, saying that Russia is getting “stronger and stronger.” Ukraine’s admission to NATO “is not a realistic proposal at this moment, so forget about it,” he added.
He also does not believe that Russians will get sick of President Vladimir Putin, and he sees little chance for Crimea to be returned to Ukraine.
Asked what he would do if he were U.S. President Joe Biden, Orbán said: “Call back Trump! Because you know, you can criticize him for many reasons … but … the best foreign policy of the recent several decades belongs to him. He did not initiate any new war, he treated nicely the North Koreans, and Russia and even the Chinese … and if he would have been the president at the moment of the Russian invasion [of Ukraine], it would be not possible to do that by the Russians.”
“Trump is the man who can save the Western world” and all of humanity, he said.
The United States on Tuesday sharply limited Hungary’s participation in its visa waiver program over security concerns regarding new passports issued between 2011 and 2020.
Under the American Visa Waiver Program, citizens of participating countries can travel to the U.S. for tourism or business for up to 90 days without a visa, and simply need a so-called Electronic System for Travel Authorization (ESTA).
But starting Tuesday, ESTA validity for Hungarian passport holders will be reduced from two years to one, and an ESTA will only be valid for a single use.
The unprecedented move, in response to security concerns, affects Hungary as the only one of 40 countries participating in the U.S. program.
After coming to power in 2010, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s government implemented a major policy change that granted citizenship to ethnic Hungarians abroad — including in Romania, Slovakia and Ukraine. Domestic critics say Orbán’s controversial move was designed to boost his electoral prospects.
David Pressman, the U.S. ambassador in Budapest, told POLITICO in an interview ahead of the announcement, “There are hundreds of thousands of passports that have been issued by the government of Hungary as part of the simplified naturalization program without stringent identity verification mechanisms in place.”
The U.S. government has been engaging the Hungarian government on this “security vulnerability” for many years and across multiple administrations, Pressman said. But “the government of Hungary has opted not to close” it.
Responding to the American decision, Hungary’s interior ministry said the country “will not disclose the data of Hungarians beyond the border with dual citizenship because that would risk their security” and accused the White House of “taking revenge on Hungarians with the new visa waiver limit.”
“This is a really unfortunate day,” Pressman said. “This is not the outcome the United States sought or is seeking.”
Washington’s move comes at a time when Hungary’s relationship with Western partners is at a low point.
Budapest’s NATO allies are deeply frustrated that Hungary’s parliament has yet to ratify Sweden’s bid to join the alliance.
There are also ongoing concerns about senior Hungarian officials promoting Kremlin-style narratives at home, as well as over efforts to water down European sanctions targeting Moscow. Earlier this year, the U.S. imposed sanctions on a Hungary-based bank linked to Russia.
Many Western countries have spoken out about deteriorating democratic standards in Hungary, as well as policies and rhetoric they say undermine the rights of LGBTQ+ people there.
Pressman underscored how American experts had previously identified ways the security concerns could be addressed.
The U.S. in 2017 made Hungary’s status in the visa waiver program provisional, while security concerns were also behind a decision to render Hungarians born outside the country ineligible starting in 2020.
Now, however, all Hungarian passport holders will be affected.
“This is about a choice,” the ambassador said. “The Hungarian government thus far has chosen not to address that security concern, which has led the United States to respond.”
This article has been updated with a response from the Hungarian interior ministry.
BUDAPEST, Hungary (AP) — A government office in Hungary on Thursday levied a hefty fine against a national bookseller over a LGBTQ+ graphic novel, saying it violated a contentious law that prohibits the depiction of homosexuality to minors.
The bookseller, Lira Konyv, is Hungary’s second-largest bookstore chain. It was fined 12 million forints ($35,930) for placing the popular “Heartstopper” by British author Alice Oseman in its youth literature section, and for failing to place it in closed packaging as required by a 2021 law.
The Budapest Metropolitan Government Office, which issued the consumer protection fine, told state news agency MTI that it had conducted an investigation into the store’s selling of the title.
“The investigation found that the books in question depicted homosexuality, but they were nevertheless placed in the category of children’s books and youth literature, and were not distributed in closed packaging,” the office said.
The fine is based on Hungary’s 2021 “child protection” law, which forbids the display of homosexual content to minors in media, including television, films, advertisements and literature. It also prohibits LGBTQ+ content in school education programs, and forbids the public display of products that depict or promote gender deviating from sex at birth.
Hungary’s government insists that the law, part of a broader statute that also increases criminal penalties for pedophilia and creates a searchable database of sex offenders, is necessary to protect children. But it is seen by critics of the country’s right-wing government as an attempt to stigmatize lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender people.
In April, 15 countries of the European Union backed legal action against the law in the European Court of Justice, and the bloc’s top executive, Ursula von der Leyen, has called it “a disgrace.”
The fine against Lira Konyv comes just two days before the Budapest Pride march, an annual event that draws thousands of LGBTQ+ people and their supporters in Hungary’s capital.
In a statement, the Budapest Metropolitan Government Office said it had ordered Lira Konyv to ensure the lawful distribution of the book, and that it “will always take strict action against companies that do not comply with the law.”
Kyiv is unlikely to renew a gas transit deal that allows Russia’s Gazprom to export natural gas to the EU using pipelines running across Ukraine, Energy Minister German Galushchenko told POLITICO.
The 2019 transit deals runs until the end of 2024 and allows Gazprom to export more than 40 million cubic meters of gas a year via Ukraine, which earns Kyiv about $7 billion.
“I believe, by the winter of 2024, Europe will not need Russian gas at all,” Galushchenko said in a telephone interview. “If now profits from Russian gas pay for Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine and Gazprom’s private army, the only thing they should pay for in the future shall be reparations.”
He added that the war means “bilateral negotiations are impossible.”
The land route across Ukraine is one of only two pipeline links between Russia and the West. It still accounts for around 5 percent of the bloc’s gas imports, but that’s only a third of the prewar level.
It’s not only Ukraine that’s casting doubt on the future of gas transit.
Gazprom chief Alexei Miller warned last week his company will stop exports if Ukraine doesn’t drop its efforts to seize Russian state assets to enforce a $5 billion award for the energy infrastructure Moscow illegally expropriated when it annexed Crimea in 2014. Gazprom and Ukraine’s Naftogaz are also at loggerheads over a dispute on transit fees.
“If Naftogaz continues such unfair actions, it cannot be ruled out that the Russian Federation will impose sanctions. Then, any relations between Russian companies and Naftogaz will be simply impossible,” Miller said, according to the TASS news agency.
Despite the bombs, missiles and drones wreaking havoc on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, the web of pipelines has kept pumping gas to the EU — where it ends up mainly in Austria, Slovakia, Italy and Hungary.
Russian pipeline gas is not subject to sanctions but the European Commission has plans to end the bloc’s reliance on Moscow’s fossil fuels by 2027.
However, there is growing criticism the EU countries still using Russian gas aren’t moving fast enough to diversify. Austria’s Russian gas imports are back to prewar levels. Hungary gets around 4.5 billion cubic meters a year. In April, its government signed a deal with Gazprom to secure additional volumes.
Kyiv ending the gas deal could cause problems for those countries.
“If Ukrainian transit stops, Gazprom pipeline gas deliveries to EU countries could drop to between 10 and 16 billion cubic meters (45 to 73 percent of current levels),” said a June analysis by Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy. That could leave Europe with a shortfall in 2025 before additional liquefied natural gas capacity from the U.S. and Qatar comes online.
“For Europe as a whole, it’s pretty manageable. But for some countries at the end of the pipeline, Austria, Hungary and so on, the picture is a bit different,” said Georg Zachmann, senior fellow at economic think tank Bruegel. “We’d have to see a reshuffle of physical capacities, physical flows. That might come with additional cost for them.”
It would represent a much more permanent potential break with Moscow.
“Keeping the thing alive means there’s maybe a chance in the future to go back to that. But if the flows are stopped there’s a risk it’s going to be completely dismantled, and the privilege these countries had in the past of getting access to cheap Siberian gas is going to be gone forever,” Zachmann said.
Ukraine’s long-term goal is to boost its own gas production to meet EU demand, Oleksiy Chernyshov, CEO of Naftogaz, told POLITICO in May.
Greece wants the EU to stop migrant boats before they even get to Europe.
In an interview with POLITICO, newly appointed Greek Migration Minister Dimitris Kairidis called on the EU to resume an operation that aims to halt migrants before leaving Libya, a common departure point for asylum seekers coming to Europe.
The appeal comes as the Greek government fights off allegations of negligence after a shipwreck killed hundreds of migrants heading for Europe from Libya. Survivors have claimed the Greek coast guard’s attempt to tow the vessel caused it to capsize, and various mediaaccounts have shown the boat was stalled for hours before the coast guard intervened.
“These tragedies will continue to happen unless we stop departures from Libya and other places on ships that are unseaworthy,” Kairidis said. “There will, unfortunately, be cases where it will simply be impossible to always save human life.”
One solution to avoid other tragedies, Kairidis argued, is for the EU to resume “Operation Sophia,” an EU-led naval mission designed to break up smuggling routes in the Mediterranean that was officially shelved in 2020.
“We support the launch of an ‘Operation Sophia-plus’ to break up migrant smuggling routes from Libya,” Kairidis told POLITICO during his first visit to Brussels, where he met EU Home Affairs Commissioner Ylva Johansson.
“EU vessels would station in the Libyan territorial waters with the agreement of the local government, which I am hopeful will accept,” he added.
The EU has not settled on how it should respond to the Adriana shipwreck. The European Parliament on Thursday backed a non-binding resolution urging the EU to establish a Europe-wide search-and-rescue operation for migrants. But some diplomats fear this would only encourage migrant departures from North Africa and feed the business model of people smugglers.
Johansson declined to endorse this approach during a tense hearing on Wednesday.
The Greek proposal is slightly different than the Parliament proposal, however. It would essentially be aimed at blocking boats from leaving in the first place, breaking up smuggling routes through the Mediterranean in the process. But critics point out that Libya has traditionally been reluctant to let EU vessels enter its territorial waters for such efforts, and that its detention centers violate migrants’ rights.
Kairidis also defended the Greek coast guard against criticism that it ignored multiple offers of help from the EU border agency Frontex.
One solution to avoid other tragedies, Kairidis argued, is for the EU to resume “Operation Sophia,” an EU-led naval mission designed to break up smuggling routes in the Mediterranean | Dimitris Kapantais/SOOC/AFP via Getty Images
The minister pointed out that the Greek coast guard has saved thousands of migrants in recent years, and he deferred any judgment on its recent actions to an ongoing national investigation.
“If someone is found guilty, there will be consequences,” he said. “But for the time being we shouldn’t bow to political pressure.”
Kairidis pushed back against testimonies from survivors accusing the Greek authorities of towing the migrant ship and ultimately causing it to capsize. He pointed out that these statements “are not a definite proof,” and that the trawler could not have been towed without the consent of those on board.
The tragedy has increased pressure on Frontex chief Hans Leijtens to end the agency’s operations in Greece due to the country’s lack of cooperation.
But Kairidis warned that such a move would “be totally counterproductive,” as the agency’s work “is of paramount importance to save more lives.”
Separately, the minister defended the Greek government against accusations that it is taking a hardline approach to migration on a par with Hungarian and Polish far-right leaders Viktor Orbán and Mateusz Morawiecki. Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, a center-right conservative, recently won a resounding re-election victory.
Kairidis also defended the Greek coast guard against criticism that it ignored multiple offers of help from the EU border agency Frontex | Bulent Kilic/AFP via Getty Images
“Mitsotakis is not Orbán,” Kairidis said. “Hungary and Poland don’t want Frontex, and they have voted against the migration and asylum pact” — a reference to the EU’s recent deal to overhaul how it processes and redistributes migrants.
“We have been the swing state to get the pact over the line,” he added.
Kairidis said the far right and the far left were merely weaponizing migration to “destroy the political center, embodied by [French President Emmanuel] Macron and Mitsotakis.”
