If I had to look at the sum total of the Houston Texans’ training camp, I would say that this feels like a better football team today than I envisioned at the start of camp, back in mid-July., My feeling on the Texans heading into camp is that they were right around the same 10-7 outfit that they’ve been the last two seasons, good enough to win the division, but in need of some luck to go further in the playoffs.
However, this offense is very clearly better coached now than they were a year ago, particularly on the offensive line. Whereas the 2024 offensive line was confused, poor at communicating, and undisciplined, the 2025 unit looks tough, physical, and cohesive. This group’s improvement alone gets me to an 11-6 or 12-5 feeling with this team.
There are still concerns, though. The offensive line doesn’t have a big enough sample yet to where we can chalk up this improvement as “continuing.” So that’s a valid concern. Here are three more:
3, Long snapper? Yes, long snapper. When the Texans chose to allow franchise legend, and 15 year Houston Texans Jon Week leave in free agency this past offseason, they were choosing to allow the unknown into their special teams room, because Weeks is literally the only athlete I can think of who was perfect at his job. In 15 seasons, there was never a bad snap.
Now, the Texans’ choice to replace him, rookie Austin Brinkman, is injured. They replaced Brinkman with Blake Ferguson for the Lions game, and Ferguson was a mess. Now, the team must make a decision, which might involve bringing in a new long snapper before Week 1. This is far from ideal, and bordering on “Curse of Jon Weeks” territory.
2. Secondary depth The first layer of the depth chart in the Texans’ secondary is enough to have them at the top of the league power rankings at those positions. Derek Stingley, Kamari Lassiter, Jalen Pitre, Calen Bullock, and C.J. Gardner-Johnson — every team in the league, except maybe one or two, would gladly swap out their secondary for those five players.
The issue is that the depth chart after those five guys is made up of rookies, rejects, and guys barely hanging on in the NFL. As of right now, the Texans need that room to stay healthy to ensure they are the elite level defense we anticipate this season.
1. Joe Mixon’s injury Mixon, of course, has missed all of training camp with a lower leg injury that was suffered doing some sort of non football activity, as he’s spent camp on the Non Football Injury list. The team has been very vague when answering anything having to do with a timeframe for return for Mixon, which doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence that he will be back for Week 1.
This means the running back position on game day goes from the player ranked 58th in the NFL top 100 players, Mixon, touching the ball 20 to 25 times to some mashup of Nick Chubb (returning from injury in 2024), rookie Woody Marks, and whoever else is deemed worthy of carries. Until we get a better sample on Chubb and Marks, it’ll be hard to tell how much the Texans can count on running the football.
The final weekend of the NFL preseason is done, and now it’s on to guillotine sharpening season, as the 32 teams in the National Football League now must pare their rosters from 90 players down to the mandated 53 players. As Nick Caserio will point out, though, there is also the hope of bringing players who are cut back onto the 16 man practice squad, a key adjunct to the main roster.
The cuts begin rolling in over the weekend. Take my word that I am generating this article early Sunday afternoon, before the Texans have made any cuts. The deadline line to get down to 53 is 3 p.m. this Tuesday, August 26. With that in mind, here is my prediction for the Texans’ 53 man roster. Here we go:
QUARTERBACKS (2): C.J. Stroud, Davis Mills This is an easy one. The big question (well, okay, medium sized question) will be who the team keeps on the practice squad as the emergency quarterback, as both Kedon Slovis and rookie Graham Mertz had impressive showings on Saturday against Detroit.
RUNNING BACKS (4): Nick Chubb, Woody Marks, Dare Ogunbowale, Dameon Pierce Chubb has been running with the starters, in the absence of Joe Mixon. Woody Marks has stood out in camp and in games. The rookie absolutely factors into the equation. Ogunbowale is viewed as a reliable emergency back and a core special teams guy. Pierce is an interesting one, because I’m assuming Mixon starts the season on the PUP list, opening up this spot for Pierce. If Mixon were healthy, I think Pierce would be gone, likely traded.
WIDE RECEIVERS (7): Nico Collins, Christian Kirk, Jayden Higgins, Jaylin Noel, Xavier Hutchinson, Justin Watson, Braxton Berrios Seven is a lot at the receiver position, but the fact the likely kick and punt returners (Berrios and/or Noel) come from this group makes it easier to keep an extra guy.
FULLBACK / TIGHT ENDS (4): Dalton Schultz, Cade Stover, Irv Smith, Jakob Johnson Schultz and Stover were locks. I have Irv Smith winning the battle with the newly acquired Harrison Bryant for the third tight end spot, with Johnson making the team as a hybrid fullback/tight end, in that order.
OFFENSIVE LINE (9): Aireontae Ersery, Laken Tomlinson, Jake Andrews, Ed Ingram, Tytus Howard, Cam Robinson, Blake Fisher, Jarrett Patterson, Juice Scruggs After all the conjecture of what would happen on the offensive line, including former second round picks Scruggs and Fisher perceived to be precariously close to being let go, we settle on these nine. Several new faces along the starting front, with Fisher, Scruggs, and Patterson anchoring the second layer on the depth chart.
DEFENSIVE LINE (10): Will Anderson, Danielle Hunter, Darrell Taylor, Derek Barnett, Dylan Horton, Tim Settle, Sheldon Rankins, Foley Fatukasi, Mario Edwards, Tommy Togiai One key here is Denice Autry, a veteran who can play on the inside and outside, and who the Texans really like when he is healthy. The problem? He is not healthy all that often. If they start him on the PUP list, which I am assuming in this projection, it opens up a spot for Togiai or Horton.
LINEBACKERS (5): Azeez Al-Shaair, Christian Harris, Henry To’o To’o, E.J. Speed, Jake Hansen Hansen survives again, over Nick Niemann and Jamal Hill, who I know they would love to have back on the practice squad, if this is how it plays out.
CORNERBACKS (5): Derek Stingley, Kamari Lassiter, Jaylin Smith, Tremon Smith, Jalen Pitre I’m putting Pitre in this group, even though he is not a conventional slot corner. Tremon Smith makes the team over D’Angelo Ross. Jaylin Smith, a third round rookie, as the third cornerback is not ideal. This is one position where I could see the Texans making moves after they see who’s been cut by other teams.
SAFETIES (4): Calen Bullock, C.J. Gardner-Johnson, M.J. Stewart, Myles Bryant This is another position where the Texans might look around the league after cutdown day. Jimmie Ward’s legal situation makes this room a little murky. Bryant makes it as a safety, but his versatility and ability to play slot corner gets him on the team. Rookie Jaylen Reed starts the season on the PUP list, unless they feel they can sneak him through waivers and bring him back on the practice squad.
SPECIALISTS (3): Austin Brinkman, Ka’imi Fairbairn, Tommy Townsend This is usually one of the easiest groups to forecast, but Brinkman is dealing with some ailment right now, which is why Blake Ferguson was brought in last week. Ferguson was atrocious snapping in the win over the Lions. He will not be on this team. So if Brinkman is hurt, do they pick up another long snapper this week, and put Brinkman on injured reserve. If they do that, do you burn one of your eight returns from IR on a long snapper? Allowing Jon Weeks to walk in free agency is suddenly something that’s possibly coming back to bite the Texans in the ass.
The Houston Texans finished up their long business trip to Detroit on Saturday afternoon by disposing of the Detroit Lions (well, the backups on the Lions, at least) by a final score of 24-7. Truth be told, we probably would have learned more about how these two teams will fare this season by watching the joint practice they conducted on Thursday, where the starters for each team got in two hours of work with each other.
Unfortunately, they don’t televise those practices. They do televise the preseason games, and while most of the players on each side in Saturday’s game will wind up getting their walking papers by Tuesday afternoon — the deadline for NFL teams to get their rosters to the 53 man limit — there were definitely some winners and losers. Here are four of each:
WINNERS
4. Tommy Togiai Togiai was an in season pickup for the Texans in 2024, and he actually acquitted himself well during the last couple months of the season. The team invited him back for camp in 2025, and he’s had a very good camp. DeMeco Ryans called him the team’s “most consistent player” a couple weeks ago. Togiai is in a dogfight to make this roster, but the sack he had on the first series of the game certainly left a favorable impression. I’m rooting for Togiai to make the squad.
3. Quintez Cephus Cephus is another player who spent some time with the Texans last year. He was one of several wide receivers vying to make the team, but unfortunately, he was cut at the end of August. He’s got an uphill climb to make the ball club again this summer, but it won’t be for a lack of effort. Cephus reportedly had one of the best touchdown catches of the joint practice on Thursday, and then replicated it in the game on Saturday. He finished with four catches for 51 yards and a touchdown.
2. Graham Mertz Nobody made a bigger comeback in game-play than Mertz, who had a horrific debut in the first preseason game against the Vikings, throwing three interceptions in the fourth quarter of the 20-10 loss. On Saturday, Mertz looked like a different player, completing 14 of 16 passes for 145 yards and a touchdown. Mertz won’t make the 53 man roster, but he made a very compelling case to be brought back on the practice squad, where he would likely be the emergency quarterback each week.
1. Nick Caley None of the starters on offense played in this game on Saturday. It was all second and third string guys, and other than a spate of procedural penalties during a stretch in the second half of the game, the offense was well executed throughout the day. The offensive line opened holes and looked well coached. Both quarterbacks who played, Mertz and Kevon Slovis, were efficient and protected the football. The Caley Effect is being seen across all layers of the depth chart, and that should excite Texan fans.
LOSERS
4. D’Angelo Ross Somehow, D’Angelo Ross has managed to hang around on the Houston Texans since 2022. He’s been in the league since 2019. While he certainly is a useful piece on special teams, it’s football tragic when he tackles the field as a cornerback. On Saturday, this was on display as he got cooked for the only Lions touchdown of the game on a deep ball to Isaac TeSlaa. If I had to guess, I’d guess Ross makes the team again, because he just keeps hanging around, and will never die, but man oh man, is he a tough watch at cornerback.
3. Justin Watson There is a crowded house in the wide receiver room. It thinned out a bit this past week, when the Texans traded John Metchie to Philadelphia, but the conventional wisdom says the Texans will keep six receivers, with Braxton Berrios and Watson battling it out for the sixth and final spot. If that’s the case, Berrios has not only had the better overall camp, but Watson didn’t do much in his final chance to make an impression. He wasn’t targeted at all on offense, and in his opportunity to impress in the return game, his indecision on a punt return almost pinned the Texans down on their own one yard line.
2. Browns fans Two weeks ago, they were celebrating Shedeur Sanders as the second coming after his outstanding performance in his preseason debut. On Saturday, Shedeur was doing stuff like this:
— Ahmed/The Ears/IG: BigBizTheGod 🇸🇴 (@big_business_) August 23, 2025
Sanders finished the game competing 3 of 6 passes for 14 yards, and took five sacks, including the one in the above video. Life comes at you pretty fast.
1. Blake Ferguson For some reason, after 15 seasons, the Houston Texans decided to move on from longtime long snapper Jon Weeks this past offseason, despite the fact that he literally never had a bad snap. He’s been replaced with rookie Austin Brinkman, who’s been fine throughout camp. However, Brinkman is dealing with some sort of issue that’s keeping him out the last week or so. Thus, the Texans brought in Ferguson so they’d have someone that can snap a football. Well, I sure hope Ferguson wasn’t viewing this as an audition, because for the first time in a decade and a half, Texan fans got to experience poor snapping, with at least two questionable snaps by Ferguson. Get well soon, Brinkman!
The sands have almost all sifted to the bottom part of the hourglass, as training camp in the National Football League winds down. The Houston Texans have two joint practices and two games in the books, so the final chance to make a big impression and make the 53 man roster is Saturday afternoon at Ford Field in Detroit.
The Houston Texans’ backups’ backups will face off against the Detroit Lions’ backups’ backups on Saturday at noon Houston time, with about 10 to 12 spots on the 53 man roster still up for grabs, not to mention the 16 spots on the Texans’ practice squad, So let’s look at it through that prism — which position groups are the most competitive, and thus, most affected by Saturday’s game:
4. Tight end room The locks to make the roster are Dalton Schultz and Cade Stover. After that, the Brevin Jordan torn ACL has thrown the back end of this position group into chaos. It was much cleaner when there were three locks to make the team. Now, it’s a competition between Irv Smith, Jr., who led the team in receiving against the Panthers last weekend, and Harrison Bryant, who the team acquired from Philadelphia in the John Metchie trade. The wild card is Jakob Johnson, who is a hybrid fullback-tight end type.
3. Linebacker room The locks to make the team are Azeez Al-Shaair, Christian Harris, and Henry To’o To’o, with E.J. Speed a near lock. After that, you have Jake Hansen, whose tenure on the team dates back to Lovie Smith as head coach, special teams demon Nick Niemann, and second year man Jamal Hill, whose had a great camp. Special teams may be the deciding factor, which would be good news for Niemann, but in the end, I think they keep six linebackers.
2. Defensive line room The locks to make the team are Will Anderson, Danielle Hunter, Darrell Taylor, Mario Edwards, Tim Settle, and Sheldon Rankins. Derek Barnett is probably a lock, too. He’s missed a ton of camp, but DeMeco Ryans has said before that veteran players missing time doesn’t affect the evaluation much, if at all. I’d add Foley Fatukasi to this paragraph with same analysis as Barnett’s. This leaves one or two spots open for ends like Dylan Horton and Solomon Byrd, and interior guys like Tommy Togiai. Denico Autry and Kirk Hinish spending camp on the PUP list is a fly in the ointment.
1. Emergency quarterback This is a battle between Kedon Slovis and rookie Graham Mertz. On my radio show on SportsRadio 610 this week, GM Nick Caserio brought up Slovis’ name unprompted as a guy who the Texans were able to identify and pounce on when he was waived by another team. Add in the fact that Mertz has gotten shakier as camp has worn on, and I’d guess that Slovis gets brought back on the practice squad over Mertz, but I could see them keeping both.
13 Days after acquiring Jakorian Bennett from the Raiders, and 5 days after wondering if the Eagles had finished their off-season shopping. They struck again with another trade.
This time, the Eagles finished off the C.J. Gardner-Johnson trade by re-acquiring the pick they previously swapped.
Recent NFL WR trade hauls:
–Skyy Moore (2022 2nd-rnd pick) from KC to SF for 2026/2027 6th/7th pick swap –John Metchie (2022 2nd-rnd pick) + 2026 6th from PHI to HOU for Harrison Bryant, 2026 5th –Devaughn Vele (2024 7th-rnd pick) from DEN to NO for 2026 4th, 2027 6th
Moving on from Harrison Bryant was one of multiple moves teams made this week by trading roster bubble players before the 53 man deadline on the 26th.
If Metchie was on the Texans bubble and at risk of being waived. The Eagles have the 32nd priority on the waiver wire, and would lose out players they’re after. Instead, teams are swapping late round picks to grab players they otherwise might not stand a chance acquiring next week.
Ahead Of Unforeseen Circumstances
The Eagles made a trade for a receiver that had many asking questions.
Is A.J. Browns injury worse than perceived?
Do the Eagles have bigger plans coming?
What did this mean for Johnny Wilson, Ainias Smith or Darius Cooper?
Well, one of the receivers in question had their year ended when news broke that Johnny Wilson will be missing the 2025 season due to injury. Making the decision on how many receivers will make the 53 man roster a little easier.
Now the Eagles can carry 6 receivers without leaving a preseason sensation on waivers or to the practice squad.
A.J. Brown
DeVonta Smith
Jahan Dotson
John Metchie III
Ainias Smith
Darius Cooper
Are They Done Yet?
There’s still 5 days until the deadline. And even that hasn’t stopped Howie Roseman & Co. Before. With multiple trades coming right after roster cut downs leaves the Eagles with plenty of last minute options.
And for a team that still has 13 picks in the 2026 draft. They have more than enough capital to round out the perfect roster on their road to Super Bowl 60.
There are several different reminders of what an outstanding job the team of Houston Texans general manager Nick Caserio and head coach DeMeco Ryans have done in rebuilding the roster, and putting the franchise in position to contend for a Super Bowl.
There are any number of positional power rankings with scattered Texans listed, including the NFL Top 100, which will ultimately include six Houston Texans this season. The eye test works, too. Watch these Houston Texans at an open practice, and you don’t have to be a football fan to notice the ferocity and intensity they all bring to practice every day.
One of my favorite exercises, though, that we see in the offseason is ESPN’s “Future Power Rankings,” in which ESPN ranks how all 32 teams are set up for future over the subsequent THREE seasons, by rating all 32 teams in the following categories — roster (other than quarterback), quarterback, head coach, and general manager. (NOTE: Up until 2023, they also included the draft as a data point.)
Looking at ESPN’s results for this exercise over the last four years paints a picture of a fantastic rebuild. Here is the synopsis:
Most of these trajectories make sense. Bill O’Brien left the roster in shambles after he was fired in 2020, so the roster being ranked 32nd and 30th in 2022 and 2023, respectively, before jumping into the top 10, makes sense. Similarly, until we knew what exactly the Texans had in C.J. Stroud, it made sense for that position to reside in the bottom quartile, before moving into the top 10. Same with coaching and DeMeco Ryans.
The most interesting category is the front office, which basically means “Nick Caserio.” I’m guessing his 2022 score of 15th was largely based on the haul he got back for Deshaun Watson in the trade with Cleveland. Then, in 2023, Caserio plummeted to 32nd, dead last. This was obviously an atrocious job of evaluating the GM, because the roster went from 30th to 5th in one year. Caserio has since settled in as one of the better GM’s in football.
Since 2022, Philadelphia Eagles GM Howie Roseman has made eight trades with Houston Texans GM Nick Cesario. I thought it’d be fun to quickly review them.
• 2022 Draft: The Eagles traded the 15th overall pick, plus a fourth-round pick and two fifth-round picks for the 13th overall pick, which was used to select Jordan Davis.
• 2023 Draft: The Eagles traded their second-round pick (62nd overall) to the Texans for the Texans’ third-round pick (65th overall), their sixth-round pick (188th overall), and their seventh-round pick (230th overall).
The third-round pick ended up being RG Tyler Steen, and the sixth-round pick became QB Tanner McKee. The seventh round pick we’ll get to in a moment.
• 2023 Draft: The Eagles traded a 2024 third-round pick to the Texans for the third pick in the fourth round (105th overall).
That fourth-round pick was used to select CB Kelee Ringo.
• 2023 Draft: The Eagles traded the seventh-round pick (230th overall) mentioned in the second trade above as well as another seventh-round pick to the Texans for their sixth-round pick (191st overall). The Eagles then flipped that sixth-round pick to the Buccaneers for their fifth-round pick in 2024.
That fifth-round pick in 2024 was included in the trade up for Cooper DeJean, but certainly not a major piece to that deal.
• 2024 Draft: OK, your eyes above to glaze over on this one. The Eagles traded a third-round pick (78th overall) to the Texans for their third round pick (86th overall) and fourth-round pick (123rd overall). The Eagles then traded each of those two picks to other teams.
The 86th overall pick was traded to the 49ers for their third-round pick (94th overall) and their fourth-round pick (132nd overall). The Eagles selected Jalyx Hunt with the 94th pick.
They traded the 132nd overall pick along with a sixth-round pick (210th overall) to the Lions for fifth- and sixth-round picks (164th and 201st overall), plus a fourth-round pick in 2025. They then packaged those same fifth- and sixth-round picks (164th and 210th overall) for the 155th pick, which became Jeremiah Trotter, Jr.
The 2025 fourth round pick from the Lions became the 134th overall pick. The Eagles packaged that and the 101st pick to the Broncos for the 111th pick, the 130th pick, and the 191st pick. 111 became Ty Robinson. 191 became Myles Hinton. 130 was traded to the Jets for 145 (Mac McWilliams) and 207 (Cameron Williams).
• 2024 Draft: The Eagles traded the aforementioned 123rd pick noted in the trade directly above to the Texans for the 127th pick (Will Shipley) and a fifth-round pick in 2025 (Smael Mondon).
• 2025 offseason: The Eagles traded S C.J. Gardner-Johnson and a 2026 sixth-round pick to the Texans for OG Kenyon Green and a 2026 fifth-round pick.
• 2025 training camp: The Eagles traded a fifth-round pick and TE Harrison Bryant to the Texans for WR John Metchie and a sixth-round pick.
Anyway, I guess the takeaway here is that Howie is at his best when he’s wheeling and dealing, and it’s nice to have a partner out there willing to make a lot of trades with him. Also, I need a life.
In the last 48 hours, two teams in the AFC, one of whom is in the Houston Texans’ division, named their starting quarterbacks. The Cleveland Browns named 40-year-old Joe Flacco the winner of a four way competition for first string quarterback, and the Indianapolis Colts named Daniel Jones the victor over Anthony Richardson on their QB battle.
Here’s the thing — Flacco and Jones both stink, and yet they start for NFL teams. I bring this up as a reminder for you to give thanks and praise to the football gods for blessing us with C.J. Stroud.
Now, here’s the other thing — the football gods can be cruel, as we found out in 2023, when Stroud was knocked out for two games while sitting in concussion protocol. In the two games Stroud was absent, the Texans found a way to go 1-1, and keep their successful quest for an AFC South title alive. Sometimes, in the NFL, you’re going to need your backup quarterback.
Fortunately, the Texans have an experienced backup in Davis Mills, who is entering his fifth year in the league, all of them with the Houston Texans. In fact., some of you, those who haven’t had 2021 and 2022 erased from your memory, will recall Mills starting 26 games combined over those two seasons.
In evaluating where exactly Mills sits on the power rankings for backup quarterbacks in the NFL, here are three things you need to take into account:
Mills has had a very good 2025 training camp There was the opening drive of the preseason opener against the Vikings, where Mills took the Texans on a 10-play, 74-yard jaunt for a touchdown. Then, in the second preseason game, Mills led the team on a drive right before halftime, in which they scored a field goal. I can also tell you, as someone who’s been at nearly every minute of practice, he has had the most “WOW” throws of any of the Texans’ quarterbacks in practice. In short, Mills is inspiring confidence.
Mills has experience in multiple systems, including the ones OC Nick Caley is steeped in Part of the reason why Mills has gotten up to speed so fast in the new system, authored by new OC Nick Caley, is because he’s been forced to learn brand new systems three times now in his NFL career, prior to Caley’s arrival. Also, Caley’s system has been branded by some of the longtime Texans players as being similar to Bill O’Brien’s offensive system, a system in which Mills played in 2021, under O’Brien understudy Tim Kelly as the OC.
We do need to remind everyone about Mills getting passed over in 2023 On the downside, the team did have a chance to turn to Mills when Stroud suffered his concussion in 2023, and after a season of grooming Mills as the backup, they turned to Case Keenum instead, and Keenum led the Texans to a last second win over the Titans. I’d like to think Mills has grown since then, and that DeMeco Ryans’ confidence in Mills has grown, otherwise, Keenum might still be in Houston.
So, who do we rank ahead of Mills? In looking at the full list of backup quarterbacks in the National Football League, here is how I would place the upper half of those backups into tiers:
TIER ONE GARDNER MINSHEW, Chiefs KIRK COUSINS, Falcons JIMMY GAROPPOLO, Rams
TIER TWO ANDY DALTON, Panthers JAMEIS WINSTON, Giants TANNER McKEE, Eagles DAVIS MILLS, TEXANS MAC JONES, Niners JACOBY BRISSETT, Cardinals
TIER THREE MARCUS MARIOTA, Commanders MALIK WILLIS, Packers KENNY PICKETT, Browns JAKE BROWNING, Bengals COOPER RUSH, Cowboys SAM HOWELL, Vikings
So there you go. I think Mills has elevated his game to where the Texans can easily go 2-2, if Stroud had to miss a month, and I think Mills would be capable of going 9-8 over a full season for a team with the Texans’ defense and coaching staff.
The vibes around an NFL franchise rebuild can be fascinating. Last season, the first season of the DeMeco Ryans Era in Houston, in Week 9, the Texans pulled off a last second comeback over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at home, to even their record at 4-4. C.J. Stroud threw for 470 yards that cay, and the future could not have been brighter, even though 4-4 is a fairly pedestrian overall record.
Fast forward to Thursday night in New Jersey, where the Texans suffered an embarrassing 21-13 loss to the New York Jets, in yet another game where Stroud was being chased all game long by a fierce Jets pass rush, that was aided by the five man sieve that is the Texans’ offensive line. The Texans record after the game was still a robust 6-3, which last I checked is better than 4-4, and incredibly (yet understandably) the sky now seems to be falling.
Expectations can be the heaviest weight. DeMeco Ryans is finding that out the hard way. The Texans’ offensive line continues to pull him in front of the bus that is an angry mob of fans and a befuddled media corps. The Texans now have ten days to prepare for the Detroit Lions, who might be the best team in football and come here for Sunday Night Football next week/
For now, let’s lay out the winners and losers from a miserable Halloween night in North Jersey:
WINNERS
4. Tank Dell With Stefon Diggs now out for the year with an ACL tear and Nico Collins still out with a hamstring injury, Dell ascended to the “number one receiver” role, and he showed up well. It had been a slow season for Dell, the forgotten man in the galaxy of Texans offensive skill players, but on Thursday night Dell had six catches for 126 yards, including a deep shot for 50 yards. He looked like the Dell of last season, and he will need to be, if the Texans are going to right this ship.
3. Kendrick Green Kenyon Green (not to be confused with Kendrick Green, whom we are about to discuss) has been literally the worst left guard in football this season, ranked 77th out of 77 yards on Pro Football Focus. For some reason, DeMeco Ryans seems to think that playing Kenyon Green is a good solution on one of the worst pass protecting offensive lines inf football. On Thursday, it took a shoulder injury to bump Kenyon to the sidelines, opening the door for Kendrick, who wasn’t a whole lot better, but at least fought. Like last week, when Jarrett Patterson replaced Kenyon, the Texans’ best drive came with Kenyon’s replacement on the field. This time it was a 98 yard drive in the second quarter for the Texans’ only touchdown.
2. Joe Mixon That touchdown mentioned above was scored by Mixon, who’s done the majority of the scoring for the Texans’ offense since returning from his ankle injury in Week 6. Mixon now has five games with the Texans that he has started and finished, and he’s rushed for over 100 yards in all of those games. Mixon is the best thing the Texans have going offensively, and it’s not even close. He is this team’s offensive MVP, until Nico Collins returns to say otherwise.
1. The Colts The Texans walked out of their win over the Colts last Sunday with a two game lead in the standings over Indy, and the head to head tie breaker secured. The chances of winning the division were well over 90 percent. Now, with this disgraceful loss to the Jets, the Texans sit at 6-3, and the Colts, with Joe Flacco now installed at quarterback, have a chance to build on their 4-4 record, with the Texans an underdog to the Lions next weekend, and staring 6-4 in the face. In other words, this division race might turn quickly, because the Texans’ offensive line is trash right now.
LOSERS
4. Kenyon Green I think we outlined this under the Kendrick Green bullet point above. Kenyon Green is a disaster right now, and the farther away from the field he is, the better for the Houston Texans and the better for C.J. Stroud’s well being. End of subject.
3. Ka’imi Fairbairn I hate seeing Fairbairn’s name in the loser category, but here we are. The kicking game was actually one of my focus items for this game, with the Texans having what I thought was a major advantage. Fairbairn has been the best kicker in football, and the Jets put their starting kicker, Greg Zuerlein, who’s been awful, on injured reserve. They signed Riley Patterson off the street. AS it turns out, for one night, Patterson was better than Fairbairn, who missed two field goals, including chip shot in the fourth quarter.
2. Tytus Howard Not only is Howard a fixture on this janky offensive line (and an overweight fixture, at that), but he’s got awful postgame takes:
#Texans right tackle Tytus Howard said he believes they’re the better than #Jets but didn’t play better tonight and came up short as eight sacks allowed @KPRC2pic.twitter.com/hKPqLnepSc
So let me get this straight, Tytus — the “better team” got outscored 21-6 in the second half. Got it. Idiotic take.
1. Bobby Slowik For a guy who was a hot head coaching candidate a year ago, Slowik is MUCH closer to losing his job right now than he is getting a promotion somewhere else. That the Texans have scored just six touchdowns in the second half of their nine games this season, including three straight games with no second half touchdowns, is a major indictment of his coaching. Slowik had one of the dumbest play calls of the season, with a half back pass at the Jets’ ten yard line, down four points with nine minutes left in the game. Stroud was the target, which made it even dumber. Needless to say, it fell incomplete, much like Slowik’s leadership in 2024.
With every passing week of the 2024 NFL season, it becomes more and more clear — the future cornerstones for the Houston Texans over the next decade are C.J. Stroud on offense and Will Anderson on defense. This is precisely the way the Texans drew it up on draft night 2023, when they selected Stroud with the second overall pick and traded up for Anderson at the third overall pick.
Accolades continue to roll in for both, further validating the Texans plan. The latest? Will Anderson, Jr. was named the AFC’s Defensive Player of the Month for October 2024:
Anderson was a monster all month long, as he led the team to a 3-1 record and a multiple game lead in the AFC South race. It’s the team’s best start since 2012. For the month, Anderson notched 17 tackles, including an NFL-high seven tackles for loss, five sacks, one pass defensed that resulted in an interception by Eric Murray, and one fumble recovery that sealed a 23-20 win over the Colts in Week 8.
Anderson recorded at least one sack in the last three contests for the month of October, showing a consistency that is indicative of an ascending player in his second season. The best week in October for Anderson was a Week 6 performance against the Patriots that featured the following stat line: four tackles for loss, three sacks and a pass defensed. For that performance, Anderson was honored as AFC Defensive Player of the Week for the first time in his career.
For the Texans, it’s their first Defensive Player of the Month honor since J.J. Watt won it in September of 2018, coming off of a broken leg the year before. Anderson is the sixth player to win monthly defensive honors in team history, joining Marcus Coleman, Connor Barwin, Whitney Mercilus, Quintin Demps, all wining it once, along with Watt, who won it six times in his Texans career.
LIST OF TEXANS AFC PLAYER OF THE MONTH AWARD WINNERS
Will Anderson Jr., Defensive, October 2024 C.J. Stroud, Offensive, November, 2023 Deshaun Watson, Offensive, October 2019 Ka’imi Fairbairn, Special Teams, December 2018 J.J. Watt, Defensive, September 2018 Deshaun Watson, Offensive, October 2017 Quintin Demps, Defensive, December 2016 Whitney Mercilus, Defensive, December 2015 J.J. Watt, Defensive, November 2015 J.J. Watt, Defensive, December 2014 J.J. Watt, Defensive, September 2014 J.J. Watt, Defensive, December 2012 Andre Johnson, Offensive, November 2012 J.J. Watt, Defensive, September 2012 Connor Barwin, Defensive, November 2011 Arian Foster, Offensive, October 2011 Arian Foster, Offensive, September 2010 Andre Johnson, Offensive, October 2008 Marcus Coleman, Defensive, September 2003 Chad Stanley, Special Teams, September 2002
Seven games in, the Houston Texans sit at 5-2, which is a really good place to be, considering it’s their best record to start a season since 2012. Despite the solid overall record, there are still areas for Texans fans to worry about, if indeed this team aspires to compete for a Super Bowl. The offensive line is one of those areas.
Hell, most Texan fans are just hoping the offensive line won’t get C.J. Stroud killed, let alone prevent a Super Bowl appearance. Sunday’s loss to Green Bay, which saw the offensive line allow relentless pressure from the Packers defense on Stroud, along with a near record setting ELEVEN tackles for loss in the run game, was the last straw for many fans.
I host the team’s postgame radio show, as well as my own four hour weekday show on SportsRadio 610, and the question we get asked most often is “Can we please just trade [FILL IN NAME OF OFFENSIVE LINEMAN HERE] and move on?” Most often, it’s Laremy Tunsil that fans want to see shipped out, but others are catching heat, too.
In the NFL, it’s not as simple as just trading a guy for the sake of trading him. The salary cap has real ramifications in these situations, especially with guys like Tunsil, Tytus Howard and Shaq Mason, who’ve all signed big extensions within the last year or so.
So let’s try to get those of you who have that itchy trigger finger on the “trade this guy” gun a bit more informed. Here is how attached the Texans are contractually and emotionally to each of their five starting offensive linemen. I’ll preface this by saying that none of them are getting traded or cut in 2024, so even addressing that possibility is a waste of space.
LT: LAREMY TUNSIL (CONTRACT) 2025: $28.9M cap hit, $25M dead money Tunsil is public enemy number one on the offensive line for fans, even as he has done a nice job of cleaning up the barrage of penalties he was committing earlier this season. If the Texans were to move on from Tunsil in a trade next offseason — they would never cut him, he has too much value — they would save around $4 million against the cap in 2025. I think it’s more likely that Tunsil plays out this deal, and the Texans move on after 2026.
LG: KENYON GREEN (CONTRACT) 2025: $5.1M cap hit, $5.1M dead money Next year would be the fourth year of Green’s rookie contract, so the big question surrounding Green this coming offseason is whether the Texans opt into Green’s fifth year option in 2026. I would guess right now there is no way they will commit to another year of Green after 2025 right now. Imminently, Green is the one guy on this line who could be replaced as soon as next week, if the coaches choose.
C: JUICE SCRUGGS (CONTRACT) 2025: $1.7M cap hit, $0.7M dead money Scruggs in the second year of his rookie deal, his first year as a full time center, and he is going nowhere. The Texans moving on from Scruggs is not even worth speculating about.
RG: SHAQ MASON (CONTRACT) 2025: $14.7M cap hit, $12.5 dead money Mason has been the one player out of this group the team can count on to be available. Now, if he could just play better, that would be sweet! Like Tunsil, the team would experience a cap savings of a couple million bucks if they move on from him, in trade or a release, after the season.
RT: TYTUS HOWARD (CONTRACT) 2025: $23.1 M cap hit, $21.1M dead money Howard is the one guy here who I think could be gone after this season. The Texans drafted right tackle Blake Fisher out of Notre Dame for a reason. I never understood the extension the Texans gave Howard, and he most certainly does not play like a highly paid tackle. I could see the team taking the $2 million cap savings, plugging in Fisher, and moving on in 2025.
GREEN BAY, Wis. (AP) — Houston Texans wide receiver Stefon Diggs and Green Bay Packers cornerbacks Jaire Alexander and Keisean Nixon exchanged words and shoves during an altercation before their respective teams faced off Sunday.
Diggs said after the Texans’ 24-22 loss that the incident started when he “heard somebody chirping.”
Television cameras showed Diggs jawing with Alexander and Nixon as an official separated them. As officials tried getting Diggs away from the sideline, more Packers converged onto the area and Alexander approached the receiver. Diggs and Alexander then appeared to shove each other as well before they were separated.
“You know, it’s intensity,” Nixon said after the game. “It’s what it is. We don’t take disrespect, and anybody starts anything, we’re going to finish it. As top-flight DBs, that’s what we do.”
Diggs and Alexander have a longstanding rivalry dating to Diggs’ years with the Minnesota Vikings, the Packers’ NFC North rival. Diggs played for the Vikings from 2015-19. Alexander, a 2018 first-round pick, has spent his entire NFL career with the Packers.
In four of the Houston Texans’ five wins this season, the team won the game (or held off their opponent, in a couple cases) late in the fourth quarter. Those four wins had largely been been games where Texans mistakes allowed teams to hang around, but in the end, head coach DeMeco Ryans could lean on the “We’re just happy to win the game!” stance.
On Sunday afternoon, the Texans’ stretch of recent success in close games came to an unfortunate end in Green Bay, as a late field goal by new Packer kicker Brandon McManus gave the Packers a 24-22 win, in a game that the Texans were honestly fortunate to be as close as they were to victory. The offensive line for this team is bad right now, and might get C.J. Stroud killed by the bye week. More on them in a moment.
Additionally, the Texans won the turnover battle in this game by a +3 margin. Since 2010, teams that win the turnover battle by a +3 margin win their games 94 percent of the time (614-38). In other words, you need a lot of stuff to go wrong to lose a game where you want eh turnover margin by three or more. The Texans had a lot of stuff go wrong.
Let’s start with that went right, though:
WINNERS
4. Neville Hewitt The big concern coming into this game for the Texans was the depleted defense. Five starters were out Sunday with either suspension or injury, including the team’s top two linebackers (top three, if you include the injured reserve list resident Christian Harris). Hewitt was outstanding in this game. Outside of a boneheaded penalty for unnecessary roughness in the first half, Hewitt was largely very, very good, with an early interception to set up the first points of the game, nine tackles, and a pass deflection on the Packers’ final drive that almost led to an Eric Murray game-clinching pick. Hewitt and Jake Hansen were not an issue for the Texans on Sunday.
3. Nico Collins I know you’re saying “Sean, what do you mean? Nico is on injured reserve!” Exactly, and look at the Texans’ passing offense the last two weeks — 176 yards against the Patriots and a meager 55 yards on Sunday, when you factor in sack yardage allowed. Most of this is on the offensive line, but clearly C.J. Stroud is missing his favorite target. Get well soon, Nico!
2. Calen Bullock For the third time this season, the rookie safety out of USC came away with an interception, and this one was the most impressive of the three:
LITERALLY WHAT!!!! 3RD INT OF THE SEASON FOR CALEN 🤯
Bullock getting some of Jimmie Ward’s snaps is ultimately a good thing long term for the Texans, but Bullock is making sure it’s a good thing in the short term, as well.
1. Joe Mixon C.J. Stroud is the most important player on the Houston Texans, but in the three games where Mixon has been fully healthy and available this season, he’s been the Most Valuable Player of this team. He changes the look of the running game. On the rare occasions where the Texans were moving the ball with any consistency on Sunday, it was behind Mixon and his energetic, physical running style. The same offensive line that nearly got Stroud killed on Sunday was the same one blocking for Mixon, so I refuse to give equal credit to the offensive line. Mixon gets the lion’s share of love for his big day on Sunday.
LOSERS
4. DeMeco Ryans’ game management DeMeco Ryans, Texans’ de facto defensive coordinator, had an excellent day on Sunday. The Texans’ defense, undermanned as it was, did its job. DeMeco Ryans, Texans’ head coach and maker of decisions, had a rough day. There was the Packers’ potential lateral-fumble that was called an incomplete pass in the first half. Ryans probably should have thrown the challenge flag on that one. Ryans’ game management on the Texans’ final possession made no sense.
To refresh, the Texans had the ball 1st and 10 at the Green Bay 12 yard line, coming out of the two minute warning. The Packers had all three of their timeouts. The Texans ran two unsuccessful run plays up the middle, a clear message they were (a) settling for a field goal and (b) trying to get the Packers time out satchel emptied. I already have an issue with the strategy, even before third down, given that settling for a field goal with that much time remaining is VERY risky. That said, on third down, the Texans should run something that (a) gets the Packers to burn a timeout, or (b) gives you a chance to score a touchdown. Instead, Stroud threw an incomplete pass to Dell that was (a) right at the sideline and (b) seven yards short of the first down marker. In other words, all this did was stop the clock and allow Green Bay to keep their third timeout. Even the kickoff after the Fairbairn go-ahead field goal made no sense, kicking off through the end zone, and handing the ball over on a touchback at the 30 yard line, burning zero clock.
I could get into Ryans not using ANY of his timeouts to stop the clock once Green Bay got into field goal range in the final minute, but my head hurts.
3. Tank Dell Dell has had a rough 2024, thus far. His high point was last week, with seven catches for 57 yards and a touchdown. When you’re nearly halfway through the season, and your high point is 57 yards receiving, you’re having a tough season. Tank put up a goose egg on Sunday, and dropped what would have been an early touchdown pass on the Texans’ first drive, after the Hewitt interception. I do like the wrinkle of using Dell on punt returns, but if Dell is who he was last year, it shouldn’t be this hard to get him the football.
2. Defensive penalties The Texans’ defense played a solid game on Sunday. There were a few mistakes, as there will be in any NFL game, but to me the most egregious were Neville Hewitt’s 15 yard penalty for duplexing Jayden Reed after the whittle, and Eric Murray’s 30 yard pass interference penalty on the next drive. Each penalty was a key catalyst to a Packers touchdown drive.
1. Chris Strausser Here are the pressure numbers by the Packers’ defense on C.J. Stroud. Frankly, it felt like WAY more pressure than this:
It was a good day for Jeff Hafley and the Packers defense as they generated pressure on 48.3% of C.J. Stroud’s dropbacks, per NFL Pro
Up until now, most of the heat for the poor line play has fallen on Slowik. But the line has been mediocre, at best, with Strausser as the position coach. What exactly does he do?
In the franchise’s twenty-plus season history, prior to Sunday, the Houston Texans had visited Gillette Stadium in New England sevens times, and seven times the home-standing New England Patriots defeated the Houston Texans, oftentimes soundly and rudely. In fact, the average margin of loss for the Texans in those seven game was an astounding 18 points per game.
So let me be very clear about this — I don’t give a rotting sack of monkey poop that the Houston Texans finally got a win on Sunday in New England, final score of 41-21, but it came against a dilapidated, wretched version of the Patriots, sans Tom Brady or Bill Belichick. I do not care. It was nice to make hundreds of thousands of Boston area sports fans miserable on a Sunday, or more miserable than they already are.
The Texans’ win over the Patriots ran their record to an impressive 5-1 this season, and on Sunday, we had winners and losers. Let’s recognize them now:
WINNERS
4. Will Anderson Anderson’s line in the box score on Sunday looked like this — 8 tackles, 3 sacks, 4 tackles for loss, 3 QB hits, and 1 pass defended (which turned into an interception by Eric Murray). If that line score looks familiar it’s because it’s what J.J. Watt used to do to every crappy team the Texans played from 2012 through 2015. Just a slew of crooked numbers. Anderson’s performance on Sunday was the best game of his career, as DeMeco Ryans confirmed after the game, and he did things no other player in the league has done this season:
Will Anderson Jr. is the only player in the NFL this season to record at least five tackles, three sacks, four tackles for loss and one pass defensed in a game. pic.twitter.com/g9DxcMBwpS
3. Stefon Diggs
The Texans were operating on Sunday, for the first time this season, for a full game, without star wide receiver Nico Collins, who will miss at least four games with a hamstring injury. The Texans and QB C.J. Stroud needed Diggs and Tank Dell to pick up the slack, and the two did a fine job. They weren’t as explosive as Collins has been this season, but both found the end zone, and kept the chains moving at specific times throughout the game. Diggs’ touchdown early in the second quarter, following Danielle Hunter’s strip sack of Drake Maye, was the most crucial score of the game, in my opinion.
2. Dameon Pierce The Texans got some good things going with the running game, mostly with Joe Mixon (more on him in a second), but I was just flat out happy to see Pierce get into the end zone, after a long two season struggle to acclimate to Bobby Slowik’s offensive system. Let’s relive the magic of a good dude getting a put-away-the-game score:
1. Joe Mixon
While it was fun to see Pierce get into the end zone, it was crucial getting starting RB Joe Mixon back in the lineup. Mixon had made it back to practice on Thursday and Friday this week, but there was some question as to whether this would be the week he returned to action. Well, return to action he did! In a big, big way! 13 carries, 102 yards, and two touchdowns, one on the ground and one through the air. Most importantly, he was able to give the offense a true threat on the ground, and that enough to open things up for Stroud to have a decent day through the air. The running game just looks different with Mixon in there.
4. Tommy Townsend’s consistency It’s hard to find anything to get super agitated with in a 41-21 win at a place your team has never won before. One thing that still makes me a little bit nervous is Townsend’s inconsistency. Throughout training camp, it looked like the Texans may have actually upgraded over former punter Cam Johnston. It’s only six games, but Townsend’s been inconsistent this season, and against better teams, field position may matter. As an example, he boomed a 65-yard punt in the second quarter to pin the Patriots deep in their territory. Then, early in the fourth quarter, he shanked a 35-yard punt that put the Patriots at their own 22 yard line. I’m confident Townsend can regain some consistency, but the trust level currently with Townsend is not high.
3. Dalton Schultz If there is one Texans player catching heat from fans right now, it’s Schultz, who’s been underwhelming in the first year of this three-year, $36 million contract extension. On Sunday, he had four catches for 29 yards, and was largely utilized as a check down safety valve. He had a crucial drop on a key third down at the beginning of the fourth quarter. (Coincidentally, Townsend shanked his punt on the next play.) Unfortunately, Schultz doesn’t offset a lack of production with great blocking. Schultz also started slow in 2023, before taking off in the second half of the season, but there wasn’t supposed to be a “burn in” period in this, his second season as a Texan.
2. Weekly Deshaun Watson check Let’s check in on our old friend Deshaun Watson, who once again, engineered zero touchdowns for the Browns in a 23-16 loss to the Eagles, dropping the Browns to 1-5 this season:
Yep, he hates life. he is miserable. Wealthy as all get out, but miserable.
1. Robert Kraft’s quest for relevance Word on the street has always been that Patriots owner Robert Kraft has harbored extreme jealousy, though the years, over the fact that his team’s six Super Bowl rings were never enough to wrest the spotlight from the Super Bowl-less-in-the-2000’s Cowboys and the aura of Jones. Well, if the Patriots were having trouble with relevance when they were winning, it’s quite certain that this 2024 version of the Patriots is about to fall of the NFL’s relevance globe. Hell, as someone who grew up in New England, I can tell you that one thing New Englanders REALLY don’t care about is BAD Patriots football. When the Red Sox or Celtics are bad, people up there care, to the point where they are mad. When the Pats are bad? Crickets. Kraft is going to spend his twilight years watching his team go 4-13 every season, which is A-okay by me!
Throughout C.J. Stroud’s young career as the leader and quarterback of the Houston Texans, one thing that has become a constant is the Texans’ protecting their home field with Stroud under center. Even with a marquee team like the Buffalo Bills in town on Sunday, one thing that I felt confident would occur was Stroud playing well. In fact, I summarized the “Stroud at home” experience in the below tweet during my pregame prep:
Including the postseason, CJ Stroud is 9-2 as a starting QB at NRG Stadium. The two losses — IND ’23 Wk 2 and JAC ’23 Wk 12 — have since been avenged, the Colts TWICE actually. CJ even avenged the CLV loss from Wk 16 in the playoffs! He was concussed in Week 16!
If you expand that tweet, you’ll see that indeed Stroud, going into Sunday, was 9-2 at home, but you would also see that the best quarterback we had beaten was maybe Baker Mayfield? Joe Flacco? In other words, none of the big names had come to NRG and locked horns with Stroud. Until yesterday.
In came MVP candidate and perennial double digit win season generator Josh Allen, and while Stroud had some noteworthy moments, good and bad, ultimately it was Stroud’s team that came out on top, 23-20, thanks to a 59 yard field goal from Ka’imi Fairbairn at the final gun. It was a signature win for head coach DeMeco Ryans and, at a minimum, another grotty moment for Stroud, who was amazing in the first half and, at times, infuriating in the second half.
On a day where the fans were repping H-town in the new Texans color rush gear, complete with H-town blue (NOT Columbia blue!) trim, there were winners and losers, as the Texans ran their record to 4-1 on the season. Here they are:
Diggs had six catches for 82 yards in the reunion game against his old team.
Photo by Jack Gorman
4. Stefon Diggs
Back in April, when Diggs was traded to the Texans for a second round pick, it was widely believed that Diggs’ going against his former team would be one of the biggest individual game storylines of the season. Honestly, both sides did a pretty good job this past week of suppressing this storyline. However, after this game, I can’t imagine that even the most staunch, anti-Diggs Bills fan can’t be missing Diggs at least a little bit, after he caught six balls, two more than all of the Bills’ receivers combined.
Ka’imi Hairbairn’s 59 yard field goal won the game for the Texans.
Photo by Jack Gorman
3. Ka’imi Fairbairn
Five games in, you could make a case that Fairbairn is the Texans’ team MVP. His three 50-plus yard field goals in EACH of the first two games of the season were the difference in wins over the Colts and Bears, and on Sunday, he added the 59-yard game winner to his gaudy 2024 resume. As long as we are talking special teams, credit punter Tommy Townsend for pinning the Bills deep in their own territory on their final drive, and credit Robert Woods for crucial yards on a punt return to set up the final field goal.
Azeez Al-Shaair rose from his sick bed to tally eight tackles and two pass break ups.
Photo by Jack Gorman
2. Azeez Al-Shaair
There was a good chance thet Al-Shaair wasn’t even going to play in Sunday’s game, after he was added to the injured list on Saturday afternoon with an illness. Make no mistake, no Al-Shaair would have spelled disaster in this game, in part because of a severe lack of linebacker depth on the Texans and in part because Al-Shaair was amazing on Sunday. The defensive captain tallied eight tackles, inducing two for loss, and had two pass breakups that easily could have been interceptions. The Al-Shaair signing has been a home run for the Texans.
Stroud was phenomenal in the first half, throwing for 187 yards on 12 completions.
Photo by Jack Gorman
1. C.J. Stroud, 1st half edition
The Texans went into the locker room with a 17-3 halftime lead, and the two biggest reasons were (1) the complete eradication of penalties, zero total (until the third quarter, when they committed six penalties, but let’s stay positive), and (2) the dominant performance of Stroud, who was in total control the first half, completing 12 of 15 passes for 187 yards and a long touchdown to Nico Collins. Stroud was phenomenal in the first half. The story would have a twist, though…..
Stroud’s fumble in the fourth quarter set up a field goal for the Bills.
Photo by Jack Gorman
4. C.J. Stroud, 4th quarter edition
Rare is the Texans’ loss since the start of 2023 where you could point to Stroud as a key culprit. When the Texans lose, drastic mistakes by Stroud are rarely ingredients in the formula. However, Stroud’s fourth quarter on Sunday was one of the worst of his career. On consecutive possessions, Stroud threw an interception in Bills territory, fumbled a ball deep in Texans territory that led to three points for Buffalo, and committed an intentional grounding penalty that drove the Texans out of field goal range with around a minute left in regulation. Stroud was very thankful in his postgame availability toward the defense and special teams for bailing him out from those mistakes. I have zero concern about this being a trend for Stroud, but the story of this game is incomplete without mentioning Stroud’s rough fourth quarter.
The Texans shut down Allen, holding him to 131 yards passing.
Photo by Jack Gorman
3. Josh Allen
Allen came into this game as one of the top three MVP candidates in the league, and while this abysmal passing performance doesn’t singlehandedly torpedo his season individually or anything, it does highlight just how precarious the Bills’ offseason plan was, in moving on from Diggs and trying to piece together a passing attack with rookies and castoffs at that position. Allen was running for his life all day, and for the second straight week, he took a ton of physical punishment.
Collins notched a 67 yard touchdown before leaving with a hamstring injury.
Photo by Jack Gorman
2. Nico Collins’ soft tissue
The good news is Nico Collins had another game changing play, a 67-yard touchdown that put the Texans up 14-3. The bad news is Collins injured his hamstring on the play, and there’s no news as to the severity of the injury or how much time he will miss. The offense looked MUCH different, in a bad way, without Collins in the game. The thing to keep an eye on this week — do the Texans put Collins on injured reserve, because if they do, he will miss at least four games.
1. Deshaun Watson (because I am petty!) Hey, I’m in too good of a mood to come up with more losers from the Texans win, so go ahead and enjoy nine minutes of Deshaun Watson after a 34-13 loss to the Washington Commanders. I enjoy seeing Deshaun miserable, and so should you! Listen to Sean Pendergast on SportsRadio 610 from 6 a.m. to 10 a.m. weekdays. Also, follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/SeanTPendergast, on Instagram at instagram.com/sean.pendergast, and like him on Facebook at facebook.com/SeanTPendergast.
Through the first four weeks of the 2024 NFL season, uncovering the Houston Texans and their 3-1 record, it feels like we’ve been conducting a beauty contest as much as we’ve been conducting a football season. In the Texans three wins, they’ve won by a combined total of 12 points and have been largely sloppy and underwhelming. Their one loss was a 34-7 blowout at the hands of the Vikings.
In other words, despite being 3-1, there hasn’t been a game played, as of yet, in which the Texans have felt nor looked like a legitimate Super Bowl contender. There is still confidence in the marketplace — the Texans are sixth on the Super Bowl odds board in Vegas — but they need to start playing like we assumed they were capable of.
That said, the Buffalo Bills come to town this weekend. Like the Texans, they are viewed as an upper echelon Super Bowl contender. This is my promise to the Texans — the beauty contest will be put on hold for this week. Find any way you can to beat the Bills, and there will be joy on the postgame radio show (which i host) and on my Monday radio show on SportsRadio 610.
Here are a few things to watch for on the road to sheer joy on Sunday:
4. Protecting Stroud It felt like most of what worked in the passing game for the Texans this past Sunday against Jacksonville came off script, with C.J. Stroud getting flushed from the pocket. That’s no way to be living. In an ideal world, Stroud would have ample time to find receivers while slinging it from the pocket. The Bills pose a notable threat pressuring the quarterback. Greg Rousseau and A.J. Epenesa are capable defensive ends, and former Houston Cougar Ed Oliver is a load on the interior, where the Texans have been particularly weak protecting Stroud. The offensive line needs to stand up on Sunday.
3. Josh Allen on the run While Stroud does his best damage from the pocket, his Buffalo counterpart, Josh Allen, inflicts his wounds on the run. When Allen escapes the pocket or gets on the move by design, good things typically happen for the Bills. Allen has some other worldly improv skills and a cannon of a right arm to go with it. The Texans will need to be disciplined up front and close down escape routes for Allen on passing downs.
2. Stefon Diggs The soap opera storyline in this game is certainly one of the best involving the Texans, and maybe one of the best around the league, period. Diggs wanted out of Buffalo after last season, despite being a perennial Pro Bowler on a perennial playoff team. Diggs has been a model teammate and leader since arriving in Houston, and both sides, the Bills and Diggs, have gone out of their way to remain cordial throughout the weeks leading up to this game. I’m anxious to see how drastically this vibe changes after several of the “firsts” in this game — first Diggs catch, first big hit on Diggs, first Allen turnover, etc.
1. Penalty parade must end The last three weeks of Houston Texans football have been among the most absurd in my 18 seasons of covering the team, largely because of the whopping 35 penalties committed, along with the fact that the Texans actually won two of those games. After each of those three games, we were assured that the penalties have been addressed, and the team will do better. Three games is my breaking point. I can’t, in good conscience, pick the Texans to beat a team as good as the Bills without proof that this penalty-riddled unit is NOT who they are long term. Here’s hoping for a clean game from the Texans, because double digit penalties will undoubtedly result in a loss. I just don’t trust them right now….
SPREAD: Bills -1 PREDICTION: Bills 34, Texans 27 SEASON RECORD: 3-1 SU, 0-4 ATS
The last time that Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence played a good, winning game of American football was in Week 12 of last season. That day, he engineered a 24-21 win over the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium, a win that drove the Jaguars record to a rock solid 8-3 at that time. As we all know by now, the Texans would eventually catch and surpass the Jags last season, winning the AFC South with a 10-7 record.
As for Lawrence, other than signing a $275 million contract in the offseason, his football life has been a nightmare since then, going 0-8 as a starter, coughing up a divisional lead in the standings in an historic choke, and regressing as a passer. The Houston Texans knew on Sunday that they could NOT allow NRG Stadium to be a safe haven for Lawrence, and allow him to get well as a QB.
Ultimately, the final result on the scoreboard indicated Texans success toward that endeavor, as the Texans defeated the Jaguars 24-20, thanks to a last minute TD drive by C.J. Stroud. The win, though, like the other three Texans games this season, had some disturbing layers to it, especially considering the Buffalo Bills are coming to town next weekend.
Let’s look at Sunday’s winners and losers:
WINNERS
4. Eric Murray Hey, it’s not very often that Murray cracks this article, on either side, winners or losers. People sometimes forget Murray is even on the team, but he is now amazingly in Year 5 as a Texan. He’s been here for every head coach since Bill O’Brien in 2020, which probably says something about his professionalism. On Sunday, he showed up huge twice, the first time with a big sack on third down of Jacksonville’s first drive of the second half, and then a pass breakup on third down of the Jags’ final possession to get the ball back for the Texans’ final, game winning drive.
3. Dare Ogunbowale
The Texans came into Sunday super-depleted at running back, with Dameon Pierce out again with a hamstring, and Joe Mixon not quite ready to return from an ankle injury. Cam Akers got the lion’s share of the carries, but when the team needed a reliable vet on the field at the end of the game, it was Ogunbowale they chose. Earlier in the game, Ogunbowale had a huge 3rd and 18 conversion, but it was his touchdown on 3rd and goal, with 18 seconds remaining that gave the Texans their winning margin.
Not even all those Texans penalties could defeat him.
Photo by Sean Thomas
2. C.J. Stroud
Sunday’s game was one of those games where you ask yourself afterward “Where the hell would this team be without C.J. Stroud?” So many times, he bailed the team out of awful, self-inflicted poor down and distance situations. Up until the game winning drive, Stroud and the offense had gone dry in the second half, and yet when he got the ball at his own 31 yard line with three minutes remaining, most Texans fans were probably confident that he would engineer a game winning drive. Stroud is ridiculously elite.
1. Nico Collins
Speaking of elite, Nico Collins is, in my mind, an early favorite for Offensive Player of the Year, which is essentially the non-QB MVP award. No Houston Texans wide receiver in team history has put up more receiving yards in the first four weeks of a season. Keep in mind, Andre Johnson played a decade for the Texans. DeAndre Hopkins played seven seasons here. Neither had more than Collins’ 489 yards through four games. On Sunday, Collins was the whole offense, at times, with 12 catches for 151 yards. Collins’ $24 million per year extension this offseason looks absurdly cheap right now.
LOSERS
4. Texans’ pass rush Through three games, the edge rusher tandem of Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter had been, for the most part, exactly what Nick Caserio and DeMeco Ryans ordered, as the pair were first and second in the league in pressures, coming into Sunday. However. against the Jaguars, the pass rush had a tough time getting home, and only hit Lawrence three times all game long. The only sack came on a corner blitz from Murray. They will need to be more disruptive to beat Josh Allen next weekend.
3. Laremy Tunsil I’m not sure what DeMeco Ryans and OC Bobby Slowik are supposed to do at this point. For all the good things that come with a specimen like Tunsil, mostly in pass protection, the penalty epidemic is ridiculous right now. Whereas last weekend, Tusnil picked up five pre-snap procedural penalties, on Sunday, he picked up two crippling holding penalties on fourth quarter drives that ended in punts two plays later. Tunsil’s lack of discipline is a major hindrance to this offense coming anywhere close to its potential right now.
2. Bobby Slowik Leading up to this game on Sunday, Slowik was as under siege as he’s been anytime in his tenure with the Texans. People are tired of the offensive inconsistency, the stubborn play calling of play-burning runs, and the complete lack of a run game the team can lean on in the second half of games. On Sunday, the running backs ran for 78 yards in 22 carries. Granted, the Texans’ top two backs were both out of this game injured, but the insistence on pounding a subpar running game, on a day where Stroud was clearly dialed in, had fans infuriated.
1. Steven Sims You want to know how to get cut from an NFL team? Have a job where you’re only asked to do ONE thing, like say, return kicks, and then muff a punt doing that one thing you’re asked to do, allowing the opposition to score a two-yard touchdown a couple plays later. Finally, when given a second chance to do your job, pick up a 15 yard penalty for jawing at the opponents. If you do those things, you two can be Steven Sims on Sunday. Brutal, and honestly, Sims is worth making an example out of. Send him packing. That was ridiculous.
While the Houston Texans are the newest team in the National Football League, underway in their 23rd NFL season, they’re building up a sample size of enough seasons, and enough trees with each opponent to set your watch to a few things. Crazy enough, the one trend with the Texans that has been a stone cold lock since inception is (a) losing to the Minnesota Vikings, and (b) not really showing up at all early in doing so.
For the sixth time in the history of the Texans’ franchise, they lost to the Minnesota Vikings, against no wins. Also, for the sixth time, they trailed the Vikings at halftime by double digits, this year, a 14-0 score, ultimately leading to a 34-7 thrashing at the hands of Sam Darnold (yes, you heard me, SAM DARNOLD) and the Vikings.
It was a heaping serving of humble pie dished out to the Texans, who had risen to among the top five teams in the league, according to most of the NFL power rankings. They had a lot of the same mistakes they’d made against the Colts and particularly the Bears the first two weeks, but this time it was in a venue and against a team that could take advantage.
Let’s get into winners and losers, and get this over with:
WINNERS
4. Jon Greenard Spoiler alert — there will be very little Texans representation in the “WINNERS” section of this article. After all, they lost by 27 in a game where they scored one touchdown. So I’ll start with representation from one of the many FORMER Texans playing in this game — edge rusher Jonathan Greenard, who had a career high 12.5 sacks for the Texans last season. Greenard had three sacks on Sunday, as well as three tackles for loss. For some reason, the Texans tried blocking him with a tight end several times. Not smart. Good to see Greenard, one of the good guys, thriving.
3. Tim Settle This will be the only Houston Texan listed as a winner. Defensive tackle Tim Settle, one of several veteran journeymen on the interior of the defensive line signed this past offseason, had a couple sacks of Sam Darnold on Sunday afternoon. After being injured for nearly all of training camp, I was unsure if Settle would make the team, so it was nice to see him finding a way to make an impact while it was still a game on Sunday.
2. Sam Darnold Nobody has been more critical of Darnold throughout his NFL journey than I have been. I thought, coming out of USC in 2018, that he was overrated, and for the better part of the last six years, it’s looked like I was right. However, Darnold is off to a fantastic start this season, with a win over his former team (the Niners) in Week 2, and Sunday’s rout of the Texans. Vikings HC Kevin O’Connell doesn’t put the weight of the world on Darnold, but his arm talent allows him to make all the throws required to maximize this system.
1. Brian Flores Finally, the last winner is Flores, the Vikings defensive coordinator, who was a finalist for the Texans’ head coaching job in 2022, the job that eventually went to Lovie Smith. That whole sequence of events got the Texans added to Flores’ discrimination lawsuit, along with the league office and several other individual teams. One thing we know about Flores — he is a very good defensive coordinator, and Texan OC Bobby Slowik had no answers for the chaos that Flores what throwing his way.
LOSERS
4. DeMeco Ryans Look, I am thrilled that Ryans is the Texans’ head coach. I think he’s awesome, and I think he will be the one that gets us to the promised land. However, there is no dancing around it — his team was not ready to play on Sunday. Furthermore, as the defensive play caller, Ryans spent the whole first half plying some curious tactics in trying to shut down the Vikings only superstar threat, wide receiver Justin Jefferson. Even the good ones have bad days.
3. Dalton Schultz Schultz got a $36 million contract this past offseason, and through three games, he has seven catches for 48 yards. Additionally, he struggled badly as a blocker on Sunday. I get that there are a lot of mouths to feed, but Schultz going practically invisible for three games has been disturbing.
2. C.J. Stroud I put Stroud here, not because of his performance (which wasn’t great, but certainly not “loser” worthy), but because he is getting his ass kicked by opposing pass rushes early on this season. Per D.J. Bien Hime of ESPN, Stroud was pressured 17 times on Sunday afternoon, 44.7 percent of the time, and was sacked four times. He is on pace to be sacked 56 times. With numbers like that, it’s tough to envision him playing 17 games this season, if that holds up.
1. Laremy Tunsil I think this is the most heated I’ve seen the Texans fan base at an individual non-quarterback player in my decade of covering the team for SpotsRadio 610. After today’s “performance,” in which Tunsil expanded his NFL lead in the “penalties committed” category (he has 10, next closest has 5), Texan fans want some accountability doled out by the coaching staff. The stretch in the first half of yesterday’s game was particularly galling. Here were Tunsil’s four first half penalties:
False Start — 1st-10, MIN 45, 8:28 left in Q1 This was the Texans’ second possession of the game, after the Vikings went up 7-0, and Tunsil’s penalty came after two quick first downs by the offense. The Texans’ drive would end with Ka’imi Fairbairn’s first missed field goal of the season.
Illegal Formation — 3rd-7, HOU 33, 0:37 left in Q1 This penalty nullified a 16 yard catch by WR Xavier Hutchinson that would have given the Texans a 1st and 10 at midfield. Instead, 3rd and 7 became 3rd and 12, and the Texans punted two plays later.
False Start — 3rd-14, MIN 35, 9:10 left in Q2 This was the third of three straight false starts by the Texans offensive line. A series that was 3rd and 4, well inside field goal range, eventually, because of Tunsil, became a punt. Tunsil actually committed another penalty non 3rd and 19, but the Vikings declined the penalty.
Illegal Formation — 3rd-10, HOU 40, 2:26 left in Q2 Finally, this penalty nullified a 17 yard catch by Tank Dell that would have given the Texans a 1st and 10 in Minnesota territory. Instead, this drive ended with, you guessed it, a punt.
Basically, what I’m saying is we are all Andre Ware:
Andre Ware was so upset on the radio broadcast after Laremy Tunsil’s first false start of the game 😂 pic.twitter.com/rajIqXWDDj
Drive around any neighborhood in Houston, and you can see for yourself that there is still plenty of leftover cleanup from Hurricane Beryl. Fences are still down, tarps still adorn rooftops, and I’m sure many Houstonians are getting (or awaiting) copious amounts of correspondence from their insurance providers.
One of the single biggest instances of property damage, though, remains in disrepair, but it looks like the end is in sight for the two gigantic, stadium-width sized holes in the roof of NRG Stadium. In a statement on Friday, the folks at NRG Park indicated that a timetable has been established under which both holes in the roof will be repaired in time for the Texans’ Week 4 home game against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
“Guest safety remains our top priority,” NRG Park said in Thursday’s release. “We appreciate the patience and support of our guests as we work diligently to restore the stadium roof to its full operational capacity.”
For those unfamiliar with the exact location of the damage, and the path of the resulting sunlight on a daily basis, check out the time lapsed video below, which shows the path of sunlight from late morning into the latter portion of the afternoon, which is relevant for noon kickoff times. As you can see, particularly in the south end zone, there have been some sun soaked fans in the Texans’ two home preseason games:
Check out this time lapse of how the sun will hit the field and stands at NRG Stadium during tomorrow’s Texans vs Giants game. A couple of strips of panels were lost during Hurricane Beryl last month. If you’re attending the game, this will give you a good idea of what to expect!… pic.twitter.com/JKrCHwcsYr
The Texans’ next home game is the Week 2 Sunday Night Football game against the Chicago Bears, and after that, they play at home in Weeks 4 and 5 against the Jaguars and the Buffalo Bills, respectively. Here are some of the relevant details on the repair plan:
The panel over the field of play (around the south end 25 yard line) is getting fixed first The hole that is above the field of play never really came into play drastically during the two preseason games, other than maybe some slight agitation in location the ball on punt returns. Honestly, the biggest effect from that patch of roof damage was the glare on the television broadcast, which made it a difficult watch when the action was taking place in that area. The worst case scenario would have been rain coming through that hole and creating a patch of wet turf on an otherwise dry field. It sounds like the we are assured a clean field of play for the home opener.
It looks like the fans in the south end zone will be saved from extreme sun (again) Meanwhile, the other hole in the roof, the long open space above the south stands in the lower bowl, will be fixed in time for the next NOON kickoff in Week 4, which is a great thing, since from what I was told by fans whose seats are in that part of the stadium, the sunlight hitting them was brutally hot. The Week 2 game against the Bears is a night game, so those fans should be clear of getting fried in sunlight once again, a nice happy accident from the scheduling czars.
This situation was a whole lot worse back in 2008 If this feels like there are a whole lot of moving parts to ensure (s) the integrity of the planning field, and (b) the physical comfort of a chunk of the fan base on game day, just know that this is nothing compared to the last time Mother Nature decided to punch holes on the roof via hurricane. In 2008, Hurricane Ike did more than twice the damage just before Week 2, and the Texans were forced to play the entire season with the roof open for home games, including four games in the month of October. If you’ve ever been in NRG Stadium with the roof open on a sunny day, then you know THAT is truly brutal.
Let’s go to our experts to answer these questions, with the help of analytics and our eyes on the beat.
After running 10,000 simulations of the 2024 season, Austin Mock’s NFL betting model has calculated an expected win total for every team, from the San Francisco 49ers (11.4 wins) to the Washington Commanders (5.9). (You can see the AFC teams here and the NFC here.) Now, our beat writers are here to answer: Is the model too high, too low or just right regarding the team you cover?
San Francisco 49ers
Win total: 11.4
This feels just right. The 49ers won 13 games in 2022 and 12 games in 2023. Factor in the exhaustion from repeated postseason runs (the 49ers have played 60 games over the past three seasons), and another decline in win total this season would make sense. But the Niners, assuming there’s a resolution to the contractual situations involving Trent Williams and Brandon Aiyuk, might’ve actually upgraded their roster this offseason. Seven members of their 2024 draft class made the 53-man roster, including a starter at what had been the offense’s weakest position, right guard. And quarterback Brock Purdy is expected to improve with experience. The 49ers’ defense, coming off a down year, has seen a talent overhaul, which could help them stay in the 11- to 12-win range. — David Lombardi
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Kansas City Chiefs
Win total: 11.3
Projecting the Chiefs to have the best record in the AFC is logical. But they could have more than 11 victories, especially if they sweep their two-game home series to start the season against the Ravens and the Bengals. The Chiefs are clearly favored to win their ninth consecutive AFC West crown. Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes have dominated the division, and the Chiefs have arguably the league’s best kicker in Harrison Butker, who usually gives them a critical advantage in tight games. The biggest concern is if their defense slides back in the rankings with L’Jarius Sneed, Willie Gay and Mike Edwards no longer on the roster. — Nate Taylor
Detroit Lions
Win total: 10.5
The case for the Lions exceeding 10.5 wins is that they won 12 games a year ago with a young roster and obvious holes. This offseason, they bolstered their secondary, added D.J. Reader and Marcus Davenport along the defensive line and expect their young players to take a step forward. At the same time, though, the Lions face a first-place schedule, and the division is tougher on paper. There’s a world in which the team is more complete overall but wins fewer games. But I have the Lions at 12 wins again, so it’s a touch low, in my opinion. — Colton Pouncy
Baltimore Ravens
Win total: 10.2
If you could guarantee Lamar Jackson will play 15 games or more, I’d say 10.2 wins is a bit low, simply because of how good Baltimore has been in the regular season with a healthy Jackson. However, you can’t do that, so 10.2 looks just right to me. The Ravens have a solid and deep team, but they play a really tough schedule and they have legitimate questions in two key areas: offensive line and edge rush. Those factors need to be considered. — Jeff Zrebiec
Cincinnati Bengals
Win total: 10.2
The Bengals had a fully healthy Joe Burrow for just five-and-a-half games last year. Their defense looked nothing like its previous self without Jessie Bates and Vonn Bell. They played one of the toughest schedules in the league. Very little went right. They still won nine games. A projection of 10.2 is solid, but I’d be more comfortable going over than under. They have questions, no doubt, but they added veteran safeties, the schedule appears dramatically easier, the offensive line is as solid as Burrow has played behind. As long as Burrow is healthy (all signs are good) with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins outside, 10 wins feels like the floor. — Paul Dehner Jr.
Mock writes, “Ultimately, this division comes down to how well Eagles QB Jalen Hurts plays.” I agree. And that’s why I still feel comfortable about my 12-5 prediction from the spring. Hurts was noticeably more polished in training camp. He was decisive, effective and dangerous on deep throws. The Eagles’ wealth of offensive talent could produce, at the very least, a top-five offense if Hurts can command this system properly. Owner Jeffrey Lurie has demonstrated patience with his head coaches so long as there’s confidence in a competitive path forward. But it’s worth wondering whether a 10-win season would be considered a regression under Nick Sirianni. — Brooks Kubena
Win total: 10.0
Despite Dallas’ three consecutive 12-win seasons, the model’s 10-win projection is right on line with what most would expect from the Cowboys. After winning the NFC East, the Cowboys have a tough first-place schedule, which includes games against the Ravens, 49ers, Lions, Eagles (twice), Texans and Bengals. If they remain mostly healthy in all of the key spots, anywhere between nine wins and 12 wins seems like a fair projection. — Saad Yousuf
Win total: 9.8
Mock has the Packers’ win total as the fifth-highest in the NFC. I think the Packers will win 10 or 11 games, so it’s just about right and, if anything, a tick low. Jordan Love and company won’t need the first half of the season to work out the kinks of unfamiliarity, and new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley seems to have his unit firing on all cylinders. The biggest question marks are offensive line depth, the kicker position and youth in the secondary. Shore up at least two of those three and the Packers will be a legitimate title contender. — Matt Schneidman
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Win total: 9.7
This seems just about right. A team led by Josh Allen in his prime should always be taken seriously. I’m sure, even with several questions about the Bills in 2024, Allen is why they have the AFC’s fourth-highest win total. But the questions are legitimate. The defense could take a real step back due to cap-cleaning offseason turnover and a long-term injury to linebacker Matt Milano. Plus, it’s a new offense without wideout Stefon Diggs or center Mitch Morse. The Bills could struggle with a tough early schedule, but don’t rule out a second-half surge once all the new pieces jell just in time for the playoffs. — Joe Buscaglia
Even with Aaron Rodgers’ healthy return to the Jets, Josh Allen’s team still has a slight edge on its division rival. (Sarah Stier / Getty Images)
Win total: 9.6
It’s hard to argue with this projection — and fascinating how tightly the AFC East teams are grouped. The Jets clearly have the most talented roster of the three from top to bottom, and if Aaron Rodgers can stay healthy, there’s no reason they should fall short of 10 wins. They had a top-five defense in each of the last two seasons, and the unit is still mostly intact (and could be even better if/when Haason Reddick finally reports). The offense should be vastly improved. Rodgers is obviously a major upgrade over Zach Wilson and last year’s rotation of backups, Breece Hall is fully healthy, Garrett Wilson is ready to break out and GM Joe Douglas did a good job rebuilding the offensive line this offseason. — Zack Rosenblatt
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Win total: 9.5
This matches the over/under from BetMGM, so the experts are aligned here. However, the Dolphins are coming off of an 11-win season, and with a light schedule to start the campaign, I lean toward the over here. I expect coach Mike McDaniel to field another offensive juggernaut while unleashing some new wrinkles that most defenses won’t be able to handle. I’m concerned about Miami’s defensive line without Christian Wilkins but also love the system new DC Anthony Weaver is implementing. I think Miami gets off to another hot start but will have to fight to get to 10 wins against what looks like a very tough closing slate (at Packers, vs. Jets, at Texans, vs. 49ers, at Browns, at Jets). — Jim Ayello
Win total: 9.4
If the Falcons don’t win at least 10 games, they’ll be disappointed, and they should be. They said they were ready to compete “at the highest level” when they fired Arthur Smith. They guaranteed Kirk Cousins $100 million. They traded for Matthew Judon and signed Justin Simmons. Eighty-one-year-old owner Arthur Blank is pushing all his chips in and making an expensive bet that this team is better than 9.4 wins. — Josh Kendall
Houston Texans
Win total: 9.0
The Texans were a surprise success story last season, going 10-7 and winning the AFC South. Mock projects them for nine wins this season, but I think they could again surpass that. C.J. Stroud has a season of experience under his belt. Bobby Slowik did well as a first-time play caller but will likely find ways to get even more out of Stroud this season, given the additional weapons (including Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon) acquired this offseason. Adding pass rusher Danielle Hunter in free agency should help both Will Anderson Jr. and the Texans’ defense as a whole. DeMeco Ryans’ squad has a good shot at another 10-win season and a return to the playoffs. — Mike Jones
Win total: 8.9
Nine wins feels about right for the Chargers. I had them at 10 in my prediction in May. Consider the extra game the Jim Harbaugh bump. The players are bought in. Harbaugh has led dramatic turnarounds in all of his head-coaching stops — San Diego University, Stanford, the San Francisco 49ers and Michigan. I believe he will have the same impact in Los Angeles. And, of course, the Chargers still have one of the best quarterbacks in football in Justin Herbert, who looked great in practice last week after returning from his plantar fascia injury. — Daniel Popper
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Win total: 8.8
This feels a little low for a team that exceeded expectations in 2023 and added more resources to both sides of the ball. Injuries will be a major factor early, with the Rams returning multiple key players from absence: Jonah Jackson (shoulder), Puka Nacua (knee) and Darious Williams (hamstring). They should get starting right tackle Rob Havenstein (ankle) back either in Week 1 or by Week 3. Starting left tackle Alaric Jackson (ankle, suspension) will be back in Week 3. No, there’s no Aaron Donald — but a depleted Rams team won 10 games last season. They will go as quarterback Matthew Stafford goes. — Jourdan Rodrigue
Cleveland Browns
Win total: 8.7
The Browns have a much higher ceiling than 8.7 wins, and internally, they’d say the roster is better than last year’s version that went 11-5 despite having to play five different quarterbacks. But just one quarterback matters in the present and future, and Deshaun Watson just had an unimpressive training camp while coming off of shoulder surgery. He hasn’t played a live snap in almost 10 months and has played 12 games in the last three years. The Browns have a lot of talent, but can they count on Watson? I’d say eight or nine wins feels right. — Zac Jackson
The Saints entered last year as a no-brainer favorite to win the NFC South with one of the league’s easiest schedules. They only won nine games and missed the playoffs. Their schedule doesn’t seem much tougher this season, but the NFC South improved around them and New Orleans didn’t grow enough along the roster this offseason. These are legitimate reasons as to why the Saints aren’t the favorites in a still seemingly weak division. So an 8.2-win projection feels fair. These projections also indicate the Saints would miss the playoffs for the fourth consecutive season, which would likely mean a new coach and new quarterback for the 2025 campaign. — Larry Holder
Win total: 8.2
Seattle went 9-8 thanks to narrow Week 18 victories in each of Pete Carroll’s final two seasons. Mike Macdonald inherited much of the same roster, so even if his new coaching staff is better, this projection feels accurate. The NFC West is a tough division, and Seattle has legitimate questions at inside linebacker and offensive line. Plus there might naturally be some growing pains along the way with an entirely new coaching staff led by a first-year head coach and first-year offensive coordinator. — Michael-Shawn Dugar
The Bears trail the Lions (10.5) and Packers (9.8), but a nine- or 10-win season doesn’t feel like a reach, either. The Bears beat the division-winning Lions last year — and coach Matt Eberflus’ defense should be better this season. Quarterback Caleb Williams will have his rookie moments, but he’s surrounded by talent with receivers DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze, tight ends Cole Kmet and Gerald Everett and running back D’Andre Swift. They’ll all help with Williams’ growing pains. — Adam Jahns
Win total: 8.1
I think this is a 10-win team. And if the Jaguars play closer to the version that went 15-5 from late 2022 to early 2023, they might have 12-win potential. Of course, a lot will have to go right for that to materialize. My biggest concern is the Jags start at the Dolphins, return home for the Browns, then visit the Bills and Texans. If they aren’t on point and fall to 0-4, there’s no telling what that could do to their confidence. But barring a catastrophe of that magnitude, they’ve got enough winnable games over the final three months of the season to exceed the projected 8.1 wins. — Jeff Howe
Pittsburgh Steelers
Win total: 7.6
Mike Tomlin has been the model of consistency, never finishing with a losing record in 17 seasons as coach. The biggest threat to that streak is one of the NFL’s most challenging schedules. The Steelers play in arguably the league’s most competitive division. The backstretch is brutal, with three games — at Baltimore, at Philadelphia and vs. Kansas City — in 10 days in December. Still, it would be hard to bet against Tomlin’s history, making the 7.6 win projection a little low. The remade offensive line and new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith should help. If Tomlin can get to .500 or better with Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodges at QB, he should be able to do it with Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. — Mike DeFabo
Win total: 7.5
The Colts won nine games last year primarily with backup QB Gardner Minshew at the helm. Their schedule is tougher this season, but the belief internally is that a healthy Anthony Richardson can elevate the entire team. I agree that Richardon’s dual-threat abilities make him capable of leading Indianapolis to more wins than Mock’s projected 7.5, though the inexperienced secondary could be a big weakness. Assuming the back end doesn’t completely fall apart, I’ll pencil the Colts in for 10 wins and their first playoff berth since 2020. — James Boyd
The Colts have their sights set high with Anthony Richardson back and healthy. (Justin Casterline / Getty Images)
Win total: 7.5
Internal expectations and fan expectations are much greater than this. According to Mock’s model, the Bucs are 11th in the NFC and third in the NFC South behind the Saints and Falcons. The Bucs won nine last year, and the general perception is they improved in the offseason with the additions of Jordan Whitehead, Graham Barton and Jalen McMillan. Whether they improve or slide might depend largely on quarterback Baker Mayfield, who had a breakout year in 2023 and is adjusting to new offensive coordinator Liam Coen, who has replaced Dave Canales. — Dan Pompei
Win total: 7.3
The quarterback selection of Gardner Minshew over Aidan O’Connell didn’t move the needle much, so it’s no surprise that Mock has the Raiders at 7.3 wins, just clearing the Vegas over-under line of 6.5 wins. The defense should be very good, Davante Adams is still one of the best offensive players in the league, and first-round pick Brock Bowers should have a big impact at tight end. Problems could arise if there are any injuries, as the Raiders are not deep and new general manager Tom Telesco is taking the long view with salary-cap space. And if the Raiders get off to a slow start, Adams might call for a trade, so … 7.3 sounds good, but there is some shaky ground. — Vic Tafur
Win total: 7.1
Local optimism is high. And it should be. Kyler Murray is healthy. The talent around him is better. The Cardinals are trending in the right direction. But coming off a four-win first season under coach Jonathan Gannon, 7.1 wins in Year 2 sounds right. GM Monti Ossenfort inherited a significant rebuilding job, and the worst thing he could’ve done was try to do too much too soon. This is the next step. Maximize Murray. Improve defensively. Develop depth. Learn how to win. Reversals can happen quickly, but for the Cardinals, there are no shortcuts. — Doug Haller
Win total: 6.8
There are days when Mock’s projection feels low — and other days when it feels high. Is it underrating Brian Flores’ defense? Is it accurately assessing quarterback Sam Darnold? Maybe yes, maybe no. If you think it’s too high, it’s probably because of the schedule. The Vikings open with the Giants, then face a gauntlet: 49ers, Texans, Packers, Jets, Lions and Rams. Those six teams have incredible talent and high-end coaching. If you see 6.8 wins as too low, you are probably looking at Darnold’s situation alongside Justin Jefferson and head coach Kevin O’Connell and thinking an explosive offense is in store. Both viewpoints make sense. Anyone who thinks they know how it’ll play out is overconfident. — Alec Lewis
Win total: 6.8
This is on the low side of the Titans’ range, but six or seven wins is certainly possible, especially with the tough NFC North on the schedule. This is a very difficult team to project considering the changes and unknowns. A first-time head coach (Brian Callahan) with first-time coordinators (Nick Holz, Dennard Wilson) will rely heavily on draft picks plugged into key roles immediately (left tackle JC Latham, defensive tackle T’Vondre Sweat), and hope key veteran acquisitions (L’Jarius Sneed, Calvin Ridley, Chidobe Awuzie, Tony Pollard, Quandre Diggs) have best-case seasons. Oh, and the Titans hope they have a franchise quarterback in Will Levis. They just don’t know yet. — Joe Rexrode
Win total: 6.7
It’s wild to say about a team with a projection of only 6.7 wins, but this seems too high. The Patriots went 4-13 a year ago, parted with the greatest coach of all time and brought back a remarkably similar roster to last season. Drake Maye won’t be starting at quarterback, the wide receiver and offensive line groups both rank among the league’s worst, and the defense got worse in recent weeks after losing its top two pass rushers (Christian Barmore was diagnosed with blood clots and is out indefinitely, while Matthew Judon was traded to the Falcons). — Chad Graff
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New York Giants
Win total: 6.7
This is right on target. The Giants won six games last year and, yes, there was a Murphy’s Law element involved with so many injuries to top players. But it’s not as simple as expecting improvement if the team manages to stay healthier. First, quarterback Daniel Jones has a lengthy injury history, so health isn’t a given. Additionally, the Giants are without some top players from last season’s roster (Saquon Barkley, Xavier McKinney, Leonard Williams). They traded for Brian Burns and drafted Malik Nabers in the first round with the expectation they’ll be game-changers on both sides of the ball. But there are enough question marks with the roster to temper expectations. — Dan Duggan
Win total: 6.4
The model was not kind to the Panthers, who sit ahead of only Denver (6.0) and Washington (5.9). But it feels about right, considering I picked the Panthers to go 6-11 when schedules were released in May. It’s reasonable to think Bryce Young will take a step forward in a new offensive system and with improved blockers and playmakers. But with sizable holes at cornerback and edge rusher, the defense could take a step back. — Joseph Person
Denver Broncos
Win total: 6.0
This is too low. In 16 seasons as an NFL head coach, Sean Payton has never won fewer than seven games. The Broncos went 8-9 last season, then jettisoned a handful of veterans like Russell Wilson, Justin Simmons and Jerry Jeudy. But Wilson’s replacement at quarterback, Bo Nix, looks more ready to run Payton’s offense than I initially expected. A personnel overhaul in the front seven will make the Broncos better against the run. Many players are in Year 2 in their schemes, and it’s been easy to see the impact of that continuity in training camp. It’s fair to sell the Broncos as a playoff team, but seven wins feels like the floor to me. — Nick Kosmider
Washington Commanders
Win total: 5.9
The broad oddsmakers set the win total at 6.5, a number that many Jayden Daniels believers find shockingly low. Mock’s model went even lower with a league-worst 5.9 wins. What the projections cannot easily consider is the Commanders’ renewed competitive spirit under coach Dan Quinn. Daniels’ upside and more weekly consistency should push Washington above Mock’s number, but it might take injury and bounce-of-the-ball luck (and better-than-expected CB and OT play) to reach seven wins or sniff .500. — Ben Standig
(Illustration: Meech Robinson / The Athletic; photos: Ryan Kang, Perry Knotts, Jaiden Tripi / Getty Images)
