Late January’s winter storm in the D.C. region may have pushed back the start of the spring housing market, but realtors said signs are already pointing to a busy season ahead.
Late January’s winter storm may have pushed back the start of the spring housing market, but realtors said signs are already pointing to a busy season ahead.
And even with some snow and ice still melting, buyers are out there, which experts said is a sign that a lot more activity is on the way.
Even during what would normally be a slow stretch because of cold, agents said interest is picking up.
“The last two weekends have had a lot of examples of multiple offer properties,” said Corey Burr with TTR Sotheby’s International Realty.
Burr said the storm delayed the spring market by about three weeks, but buyer interest never fully cooled off. He also said he believes the anxiety that slowed last year’s market is fading.
“I’m expecting a very big spring market in Washington,” he said.
Burr said each property type is acting like its own submarket this year. Some homes are seeing heavy competition while others sit longer. As condominiums in D.C. remain challenging because of aging buildings, special assessments and high fees, family sized homes in convenient neighborhoods are drawing the most attention,
“I would say, around a million dollars, say 750 to a million, seem to be affordable for many people in the area, and those are the ones that really are flying off the market very quickly,” he said.
Weather has also played a major role. The snow and ice delayed many listings, and Burr said sellers have been waiting for better conditions.
“We’ve postponed a number of listings, and we’re aiming towards March 1 for many of them, and I think that’s when the spring market is really going to take flight,” he said.
Burr said the strongest period of the entire season is coming soon. He calls it “the really big eight-week period,” which he said goes from mid-March to mid-May.
Last year’s softer market is also part of the story. Burr pointed to several factors that dampened activity a year ago.
“Last year, the market just had a very difficult time, when we considered DOGE and the tariffs and the extended government shutdown, people just lost their confidence to buy real estate for the most part,” he said.
But recent activity shows that confidence is returning.
“Yes, I think the anxiety from last year is wearing off,” he said.
Get breaking news and daily headlines delivered to your email inbox by signing up here.
Moneywise and Yahoo Finance LLC may earn commission or revenue through links in the content below.
Economist Peter Schiff made his name by predicting the 2008 housing crash. Now he’s sounding the alarm on another potential crisis in America’s housing market — one that could see a wave of homeowners mailing back their keys.
“Why are housing prices so high? Because for a long time, the Fed kept interest rates at zero, and so a lot of people were able to get really low mortgages, 3% mortgages, 4% mortgages,” Schiff explained in a 2025 YouTube video (1).
“And because homes are bought — not based on what the home cost — but based on the monthly payment, the lower the monthly payment, the more somebody could pay for a house. Now you have a problem where housing prices went way up, but then mortgage rates went way up, and home prices never came back down to levels consistent with more expensive mortgages.”
Indeed, mortgage rates have surged. The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage has climbed from below 3% just a few years ago to more than 6.1% today (2). Normally, higher borrowing costs can cool down the market, but prices remain stubbornly high: the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Index, which tracks the price of single-family homes in the U.S., jumped more than 43% over the past five years (3).
Schiff believes prices will “eventually” fall to match today’s higher rates — a painful adjustment that, he warns, could trigger “a housing emergency.”
“It’s going to create a bunch of defaults and a lot of people are going to walk away and mail in their keys because they can’t sell their houses for more than they owe,” he said.
The scenario sounds familiar. During the 2008 bust, many underwater homeowners — those who owed more than their homes were worth — simply mailed their keys to the lender and walked away.
Today’s market is different. Lending standards are tighter than during the subprime era, making widespread negative equity less common. Supply constraints are also a factor: Zillow estimates the U.S. is short roughly 4.7 million homes, a gap that has helped keep prices elevated (4).
Schiff argues that many owners are staying put only because they locked in ultra-low mortgage rates, which are now limiting the number of homes for sale.
“But at some point, there are people that have to sell their houses for whatever reason and if they have to slash the prices to do it, they may not have enough money to repay the mortgages. And so this could have a cascading effect,” he warned.
According to December 2025 sales data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), pending home sales were down 3% on the previous year and had plunged 9.3% since November (6). While seasonality could be a factor here, the NAR suggests that the decline in pending home sales could be the result of consumers facing a lack of inventory and feeling like they don’t have a lot of good options on the table.
While Schiff is wary of the U.S. homeownership market, he acknowledges one persistent trend: “Rents go up every year,” he noted on his show.
America’s housing affordability crisis is, in part, a reflection of broader cost-of-living pressures — and it underscores how real estate can serve as a hedge. As inflation drives up the cost of materials, labor and land, home values tend to rise as well. Rental income often follows suit, giving landlords a stream of cash flow that adjusts with inflation.
In fact, investing legend Warren Buffett has often pointed to real estate as a prime example of a productive, income-generating asset. In 2022, Buffett remarked that if you offered him “1% of all the apartment houses in the country” for $25 billion, he would “write you a check (8).”
Of course, you don’t need billions of dollars — or to even buy a house outright — to benefit from real estate investing. Crowdfunding platforms like Arrived offer an easier way to get exposure to this income-generating asset class.
Backed by world-class investors like Jeff Bezos, Arrived allows you to invest in shares of rental homes with as little as $100, all without the hassle of mowing lawns, fixing leaky faucets or handling difficult tenants.
The process is simple: browse a curated selection of homes that have been vetted for their appreciation and income potential. Once you find a property you like, select the number of shares you’d like to purchase and then sit back as you start receiving any positive rental income distributions from your investment.
In a recent J.P. Morgan report, Al Brooks, the vice chair of Commercial Banking at J.P. Morgan said, “I think multifamily housing is absolutely where you want to be as an investor.” He added, “The multifamily rental market may still feel the impact of a recession, but to a lesser degree than other asset classes (9).
If diversifying into multifamily rentals appeals to you, you could consider investing with Lightstone DIRECT, a new investing platform from the Lightstone Group, one of the largest private real estate companies in the country with over 25,000 multifamily units in its portfolio.
Since they eliminate intermediaries — brokers and crowdfunding middlemen — accredited investors with a minimum investment of $100,000 can gain direct access to institutional-quality multifamily opportunities. This streamlined model can help reduce fees while enhancing transparency and control.
And with Lightstone DIRECT, you invest in single-asset multifamily deals alongside Lightstone — a true partner — as Lightstone puts at least 20% of its own capital into every offering. All of Lightstone’s investment opportunities undergo a rigorous, multi-stage review before being approved by Lightstone’s Principals, including Founder David Lichtenstein.
How it works is simple: Just sign up with your email, and you can schedule a call with a capital formation expert to assess your investment opportunities. From here, all you have to do is verify your details to begin investing.
Founded in 1986, Lightstone has a proven track record of delivering strong risk-adjusted returns across market cycles with a 27.6% historical net IRR and 2.54x historical net equity multiple on realized investments since 2004. All told, Lightstone has $12 billion in assets under management — including in industrial and commercial real estate.
As such, even if multifamily rentals don’t appeal to you, Lightstone could still serve you well as an investment vehicle for other real estate verticals.
Peter Schiff (1, 7); Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2); S&P Global (3); Zillow (4); Gold Price (5); National Association of Realtors (6); J.P. Morgan (7, 9); CNBC (8)
This article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind.
Landlords across Canada are increasingly dangling such incentives, along with other common perks like free parking, waived pet fees, and moving allowances, to compete for new tenants. After a post-pandemic surge in rental costs, real estate watchers say the scales have tipped back in favour of renters amid falling prices, higher vacancy rates, and uncertainty in the housing market overall.
“It’s a race to the bottom,” said Marco Pedri, a Toronto-based broker with Shoreline Realty who specializes in leasing transactions. “We talk about the inventory of all these new buildings. These landlords are competing with one another, driving the prices down.”
Rental supply surges as demand shifts to leasing
That trend seems poised to continue for much of this year, especially after 2025 marked the second consecutive year of record rental housing starts in Canada. Experts say more apartment completions are also expected this year as projects wrap up, giving renters additional choice. “The math works better for rentals than for large home ownership projects right now,” said Mathieu Laberge, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.’s chief economist.
But with so many new listings and prices falling, the question is whether demand from renters will follow in 2026. Some real estate agents believe that’s already begun.
Tom Storey of Royal LePage Signature Realty said 2025 was one of his team’s biggest years for leasing transactions. He said demand for rentals gained steam as fewer clients were willing to step off the sidelines in the sales market.
“What was clear to me is that the need for real estate hasn’t changed, but in 2025, how people chose to access it was a lot more on the leasing side than the purchase side,” said Storey, adding that declining sales prices and lower interest rates have also prompted buyers to hold off as they wait for the market to “bottom out.”
“That seems to me one of the many reasons why people chose to rent for the short-term, because rental prices had dropped as well. Starting rents in 2025 were lower than they were in 2024 and 2023.”
Use our mortgage payment calculator
Our calculator will help you understand what a mortgage will cost you in real terms while factoring for interest rates, amortization period, fixed or variable terms, and more.
Rents keep falling, but affordability pressures remain
December 2025 marked the 15th consecutive month that average asking rents fell nationally year-over-year, according to analysis from Rentals.ca and Urbanation based on listings data from the former’s network. They say average asking rents in Canada fell 3.1% overall in 2025 and are down 5.4% from two years ago. In December, asking rents fell around 8% in Vancouver, 5% in Toronto and Calgary, 2% in Montreal, and 0.5% in Ottawa on an annual basis.
Article Continues Below Advertisement
But affordability concerns linger. At $2,060, the overall average asking rent in Canada last month was down 2.3% from a year ago. But that’s still nearly 3% higher than the national average asking rent of three years earlier, according to the report. Asking rents are also still around 14% higher than pre-pandemic levels of December 2019.
Rentals.ca spokesman Giacomo Ladas said property managers are now coping with a double whammy—lots of new supply available, plus a relatively shallow pool of renters. While some tenants are still feeling priced out of the market, movement has also slowed after the federal government introduced an immigration cap, which has stunted population growth. Demand also typically cools in the winter months, he said, resulting in both lower asking prices and incentive offers aplenty.
“What’s important to note as well is that we are still expecting a lot more supply coming into the market,” said Ladas, noting about 180,000 units are currently under construction across Canada. “Based on the end of last year, we were seeing negative population growth, so we don’t expect demand really to pick up any time soon, but more supply is on its way. Because of that, we see vacancy rates increase.”
Economic uncertainty cools renter and buyer movement
Meanwhile, the rental market wasn’t immune to last year’s widespread economic uncertainty linked to trade concerns, which clouded Canada’s real estate outlook. Some local real estate boards say the trade dispute led to fewer resale transactions than initially forecasted. Many potential first-time buyers took a wait-and-see approach that still lingers, holding onto their rentals instead of moving forward with plans to own.
Similarly, renters were less inclined to pay premium prices, said Ladas, even though developers pushed ahead with purpose-built rental projects, having borrowed money to build them before tariffs went into effect.
“People were staying in their rental apartments longer and we weren’t seeing turnover rates increase,” he said. The average two-bedroom turnover unit rent declined in Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto, and Halifax last year, according to CMHC data. The national housing agency said the vacancy rate for purpose-built rental apartments sat at 3.1% in the fall, up from 2.2% at the same point in 2024 and above the national 10-year average.
2026 shaping up as renter-friendly year
Laberge said the agency believes 2026 will be another renter-friendly year in most Canadian markets. With additional supply expected from other ongoing projects, he said it will give incomes time to catch up to rent growth of previous years. “When the turnover rents start going down, there’s more fluidity in the market,” he said.
For now, the dynamic has allowed clients more freedom to pick and choose where they live, said Pedri. A more affordable environment means they can prioritize factors such as location or amenities when moving, instead of having to settle. Pedri said many are also opting to lock into rent-controlled units while prices are lower.
More homebuyers in Fort Worth are discovering they can bring something to the negotiation table that has eluded them for years: leverage.
For the first time since before the COVID-19 pandemic, Fort Worth real estate agents are seeing rising inventory and slower price growth — in other words, a more buyer-friendly market.
“Every real estate market has its ups and downs and levels,” said Shawn Buck, president of the Greater Fort Worth Association of Realtors. “Right now in Fort Worth, we’re really just balancing out, which is a great thing, specifically for buyers and getting them into a market where they can have more leverage when buying a home.”
A balanced housing market equates to exactly six months of available inventory, meaning it would take six months to sell every house currently on the market if no new homes were listed. Right now, Fort Worth is seeing about three to six months of inventory, which creates the most balanced market the city has seen since before the pandemic, Buck said.
High mortgage rates and other economic pressures over the last few years pushed many buyers out of the market. With mortgage rates falling and price growth slowing, pending home sales grew nearly 4% in November, the largest jump in contract signings since early 2023.
November housing prices in Fort Worth were 6% lower than one year ago, and active listings were up by over 3%, according to Realtor association data. Closed sales declined by over 11%, reflecting softer demand for homes. In Tarrant County as a whole, home prices in November averaged $336,450, down by 5.2%.
Buck said the Fort Worth area’s shift to a more buyer-friendly market comes after years of “chaos” created from the pandemic and a subsequent mass population increase in the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area.
“With the mass migration to Texas, DFW was a large recipient of that,” Buck said. “We had a much higher demand than our housing mortgage, so that can very much cause a seller’s market in that time. Now, we’re really just balancing out, which is a great thing for buyers.”
Buck also said buyers are able to negotiate more now than they have since before the pandemic in 2020.
In November, 708 homes were sold in Fort Worth — just over 11% less than November 2024. The median price in November was also less than November 2024, and the monthly housing inventory rose.
The Greater Fort Worth Association of Realtors also said that the average home spent 64 days on the market in November, which was nine days longer than this time last year.
Those numbers were similar in Tarrant County as a whole. Over 1,400 homes were sold across the county in November, also about 11% lower than November 2024. The median house price dropped almost 6% compared to the same time last year, and houses spend five more days on the market in November than they did in November 2024.
Buck said he doesn’t have any crystal ball, but he fully expects the Fort Worth market to remain in a more balanced state for the time being, he said.
“Listening to economists, looking at all the market reporters, all those things, I think that we’re going to stay in the more balanced market for the foreseeable future,” Buck said. “Now, if rates were to come down drastically that could change, but with the growth and development and the job market and people moving to DFW, I think we will continue seeing this balanced level market.”
A more stable market is a good thing for both buyers and sellers, and now is the perfect time to buy a home whether you’re a first-time buyer or a tenth time buyer, Buck said.
“No realtor really likes having that chaos of an unbalanced market for that long like we saw during and after COVID,” Buck said. “We like the seasonality, we like the trends. And as we move back toward a more stable and balanced market, there is consistency, which is a great thing for both buyers and sellers.”
Samuel O’Neal is a local news reporter at the Fort Worth Star-Telegram covering higher education and local news in Fort Worth. He joined the team in December 2025 after previously working as a staff writer at the Philadelphia Inquirer. He graduated from Temple University, where he served as the Editor-in-Chief of the school’s student paper, The Temple News.
Some might say the new Aurora Regional Navigation Campus that opened recently in a former 255-room hotel is undergirded by one of humanity’s seven deadly sins — envy.
The intent is to turn that feeling into a motivational force. For his part, Mayor Mike Coffman prefers to refer to the three-tiered residential system at the homeless navigation center as an “incentive-based program” — one that awards increasingly comfortable living quarters to those showing progress on their journey to self-sufficiency.
“The notion here is (that) different standards of living act as an incentive,” Coffman said in early November during a ribbon-cutting ceremony for the campus, which occupies a former Crowne Plaza Hotel at East 40th Avenue and Chambers Road. “The idea is to move up the tiers into much better living situations.”
Clients in the new facility, which opened its doors on Nov. 17, start at the bottom with a cot and a locker. They can eventually migrate to a hotel room, with a locking door and a private bathroom.
But that upgrade comes with a price.
“To get a room here, you have to be working full time,” Coffman said.
It’s an approach that the mayor says threads the needle between housing-first and work-first, the two prevailing strategies for addressing homelessness today. The housing-first approach emphasizes getting someone into a stable home before requiring employment, sobriety or treatment. A work-first setup conditions housing on a person finding work and seeking help with underlying mental health and addiction problems.
“We’re providing a continuum of services that starts with an emergency shelter,” said Jim Goebelbecker, the executive director of Advance Pathways.
Advance Pathways, the nonprofit group that ran the Aurora Resource Day Center before its recent closure, was chosen through a competitive bidding process to operate the new navigation campus in Aurora — with $2 million in annual help from the city. Goebelbecker said the tiered approach at the new facility “taps into a person’s motivation for change.”
The Aurora Regional Navigation Campus’ debut nearly completes a mission that has been in the works for more than three years. It is the fourth — and penultimate — metro Denver homeless navigation center to go online since the Colorado General Assembly passed House Bill 1378 in 2022.
The bill allocated American Rescue Plan Act dollars to stand up one central homeless navigation center. The plan has since shifted to five smaller centers, with locations in Aurora, Lakewood, Boulder, Denver and Englewood. The Colorado Department of Local Affairs in late 2023 approved $52 million for the centers. The final center, the Jefferson County Regional Navigation Campus in Lakewood, is undergoing renovations and will open next year.
Aurora’s center, with 640 beds across its three tiered spaces, is by far the largest of the five facilities.
Cathy Alderman, a spokeswoman for the Colorado Coalition for the Homeless, said the opening of Aurora’s navigation campus is “a really big deal.” Aside from serving its own clientele, she expects the center to send referrals to the coalition’s newly opened Sage Ridge Supportive Residential Community near Watkins, where people without stable housing go to address their substance-use disorders.
“A person can go to one place and get multiple needs met,” Alderman said, referring to the array of job, medical and addiction treatment services that give homeless navigation centers their name. “We are excited that the new campus is now up and running.”
The new Aurora Regional Navigation Campus, operated by Advance Pathways, photographed in Aurora on Thursday, Nov. 6, 2025. (Photo by Andy Cross/The Denver Post)
‘How do I move up?’
Walking into the Aurora Regional Navigation Campus feels like walking into, well, a hotel.
The swimming pool was removed during renovation, as was a water fountain in the lobby. Everything else stayed, including beds, bedding, furniture — even a stash of bottled cocktail delights. But not the alcohol to go with it.
“They left everything, down to the forks and knives and a wall of maraschino cherries,” said Jessica Prosser, Aurora’s director of housing and community services, as she walked through the hotel’s industrial kitchen.
The kitchen, which was part of the $26.5 million sale of the Crowne Plaza Hotel to Aurora last year, was a godsend to an operation tasked with serving three meals a day to hundreds of people. The city spent another $13.5 million to renovate the building.
“To build a new commercial kitchen is a half-million dollars, easy,” Prosser said.
The layout of the navigation center was deliberate, she said. The hotel’s convention center space is now occupied by Tier I and Tier II housing. The first tier is made up of nearly 300 cots, divided by sex. There are lockers for personal belongings and shared bathrooms. Anyone is welcome.
On the other side of a nondescript wall is Tier II, which is composed of a grid of 114 compartmentalized, open-air cubicles with proper beds and lockable storage. The center assigns residents in this tier case managers to help them treat personal challenges and get on the path toward landing a job.
The Tier II “Courage” space, which offers overnight accommodation for people who are working on recovery, employment and housing pathways at the new Aurora Regional Navigation Campus in Aurora, on Thursday, Nov. 6, 2025. (Photo by Andy Cross/The Denver Post)
Tier III residents live in the 255 hotel rooms. They must have a full-time job and are required to pay a third of their income to the program. Residents in this tier will typically remain at Advance Pathways for up to two years before they have the skills and stability to find housing on the outside, Goebelbecker said.
People living in the congregate tiers can house their dogs in a pet room, which can accommodate 40 canines. (No cats, gerbils or fish). The center also doesn’t accept children. Around 60 staff members, plus 10 contracted security personnel, will work at the facility 24/7.
Shining a bright light on the path forward and upward inside the facility — the windows of some of the coveted private rooms are fully visible from the lobby — is an “intentional design feature,” Prosser said.
“How do I move up?” she mused, stepping into the shoes of a resident eyeing the facility’s layout. “How do I get in there?”
The Tier III “Commitment” space, which provides private rooms that will serve people who are in the workforce and are building towards financial independence, seen at the new Aurora Regional Navigation Campus in Aurora on Thursday, Nov. 6, 2025. (Photo by Andy Cross/The Denver Post)
It’s a system that demands something of the people using it, Coffman said, while at the same time providing the guidance and help that clients will need.
“This is not just maintaining people where they are — this is about moving people forward,” the mayor said.
The approach is familiar to Shantell Anderson, Advance Pathways’ program director. She told her life story during the ribbon-cutting ceremony, bringing tears to the eyes of some in the audience.
A native of Denver’s Park Hill neighborhood, Anderson fell in with the wrong crowd. She became pregnant at 15 and got hooked on cocaine. She spiraled into a life on the streets that resulted in her children being sent to an aunt for caretaking.
But through treatment and by intersecting with the right people, she recovered. She earned a nursing degree and worked at RecoveryWorks, a nonprofit organization that operated a day shelter in Lakewood, before taking the job at Advance Pathways.
The Tier I “Compassion” emergency shelter, which provides immediate short-term shelter for those in need at the new Aurora Regional Navigation Campus in Aurora on Thursday, Nov. 6, 2025. (Photo by Andy Cross/The Denver Post)
“This is a system that honors people’s dignity,” Anderson said, her voice heavy with emotion.
In an interview, she said assuming the burden to improve her situation was critical to her transformation.
“I actually did that — no one gave me anything,” said Anderson, 48. “If it was handed to me, I didn’t appreciate it.”
How much responsibility to place on the people being helped by such programs is still a matter of intense debate by policymakers and advocates for homeless people. The housing-first approach favored by Denver and many big cities across the country is anchored in the idea that work or treatment requirements will result in many people falling through the cracks and staying outside, particularly those who face mental-health challenges.
The Bridge House in Englewood, one of the five metro area navigation centers, follows a “Ready to Work” model that is similar to that of the upper tiers of the Aurora Regional Navigation Campus.
Opened in May, the Bridge House has 69 beds. CEO Melissa Arguello-Green said the organization asks its clients (called trainees) to put skin in the game by landing a job with Bridge House’s help and then contributing a third of their paycheck as rent.
“We help them find employment through our agency so they can leave our agency,” she said. “We’re looking for self-sufficiency that will get people off system support.”
Arguello-Green said she would like to see more coordination between the metro’s five navigation centers, though she acknowledged it’s still in the early going.
“We’re missing that come-to-the-table collaboration,” she said.
Advance Pathways volunteer outreach coordinator Evan Brown organizes the clothing bank before the Aurora Regional Navigation Campus’ grand opening ceremony in Aurora on Thursday, Nov. 6, 2025. (Photo by Andy Cross/The Denver Post)
Homeless numbers still rising
Shannon Gray, a spokeswoman for the Colorado Department of Local Affairs, said her department had started convening quarterly in-person meetings across the locations.
“While each navigation campus is unique and reflects community-specific strategies, they are all a part of a regional effort to bring external partners together onsite to provide needed services and referrals,” Gray said. Together, they are “building towards a larger regional system to connect homeless households to a larger network of opportunities.”
The centers are permitted to “tailor their approach to their unique needs and vision,” she said. While Englewood and Aurora use a tiered system, Gray said, the other three centers don’t.
“It is important to understand that DOLA serves as a funder for these regional navigation campuses — we do not oversee their operation or maintenance,” she said.
Denver’s navigation center, which opened in December 2023 in a former DoubleTree Hotel on Quebec Street, offers 289 rooms to those in need, said Julia Marvin, a spokeswoman for the city’s Department of Housing Stability.
She called the facility an “integral component of Denver’s All in Mile High homelessness initiative,” Mayor Mike Johnston’s ambitious effort to appreciably reduce homelessness in the city. The center is just one of several former hotels and other shelter sites in the system.
Earlier this year, his administration cited annual count numbers showing a 45% decrease in the number of people sleeping on the streets since 2023 — dropping from 1,423 to 785 people, despite overall homelessness continuing to increase in that time.
In fact, homelessness numbers are still going in the wrong direction across the seven-county metro, per the latest Point-in-Time survey from the Metro Denver Homeless Initiative, which captures a one-night snapshot. The January count revealed that 10,774 people were homeless on the night of the survey, up from 9,977 in the count the year before.
Anderson, the Advance Pathways program director, said the new Aurora facility was opening at just the right time. Despite a recent calming in runaway home values in metro Denver, the $650,000 median price of a detached home in October still demarcated a housing market that was out of reach for many.
“I am excited,” Anderson said of the Aurora navigation campus’ debut. “I’m waiting for people to walk through the door and start the next chapter of their journey.”
High prices have defined local housing markets across the United States, and Vice President JD Vance blamed the situation on immigrants and housing supply.
“A lot of young people are saying, housing is way too expensive. Why is that? Because we flooded the country with 30 million illegal immigrants who were taking houses that ought by right go to American citizens,” Vance told Fox News’ Sean Hannity on Nov. 13. “And at the same time we weren’t building enough new houses to begin with even for the population that we had.”
The number of immigrants in the U.S. illegally is less than half that — estimates range from 12 millionto14 million people as of 2023, the latest data available. And although expertsagree that increased immigration leads to higher housing demand, evidence doesn’t support the idea that immigrants are a primary reason for surging housing costs.
Vance is more accurate to cite a lack of housing supply; experts say that’s the majordriver behind the lack of affordability, with elevated interest rates exacerbating the situation. The number of new homes built has plunged since the 2008 recession, resulting in a shortage of about 4.7 million homes.
The construction slowdown never returned to prerecession levels, said Chloe East, a University of Colorado Boulder associate economics professor. “During the pandemic we had supply chain shortages (and) high interest rates causing people to not sell their homes, which caused the market to stall, while demand for housing increased because of remote work, she said.
As evidence for Vance’s statement, a White House spokesperson pointed PolitiFact tomultiplestudies. Some of the research is outdated and some of the study authors told The New York Times their research evaluated immigration’s effects on housing in a given community, cautioning against using the findings to explain national trends.
Evidence doesn’t show immigration as a leading cause of the U.S. housing crisis
U.S. home prices and rents started to climb in 2020 and 2021 as the COVID-19 pandemic drove demand for more space as people worked from home. This predated immigration increases in 2022 and 2023, and inflation surged around the same time, driving up interest rates and borrowing costs for prospective homebuyers.
Pew Research Center found there were about 800,000 more immigrants in the U.S. illegally in 2022 compared with 2019. The Center for Immigration Studies, a group that promotes lower migration levels, estimated there were 2.5 million more in 2023 than in 2020.
Newly arrived immigrants typically have low housing demand, said Dean Baker, cofounder and senior economist at the liberal Center for Economic and Policy Research. They often share housing with other immigrants or friends and relatives, he said, making their average housing consumption far smaller than is typical.
One 2007 study the White House cited found that an immigration inflow equal to 1% of a city’s population is associated with a 1% increase in average rents and housing values.
Study author Albert Saiz, a Massachusetts Institute of Technology professor of urban economics and real estate, told The New York Times in 2024 the effects were localized and would not have the same effect on prices nationally.
Jacob Vigdor, a University of Washington public policy professor and author of a 2017 study the White House cited, told PolitiFact his research found that immigrants in the U.S. illegally added “a little less than half of 1% to the cost of a home.” By comparison, he said mortgage rate increases have raised the principal and interest of mortgage payments by 46%.
“When more people live in a community, there’s more demand for housing,” Vigdor said. “The important consideration is the magnitude of the effect, and the contribution of unauthorized immigration to housing affordability problems is about 1/100 the magnitude of the impact of higher interest rates.”
Vance’s statement also ignores another role immigration plays in the housing market: Foreign-born workers make up about 30% of the U.S. construction workforce.
Recentstudies have found that the federal immigration crackdown could cause a shortage of construction workers, which could slow down new housing construction, leading to higher prices.
“Immigrants provide a disproportionate share of the workforce in the construction sector,” with many specializing in trades such as stucco masonry and drywall installation that can lead to construction bottlenecks when there’s a shortage, said Exequial Hernandez, a Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania associate professor who studies immigration.
Our ruling
Vance said housing is expensive “because we flooded the country with 30 million illegal immigrants” and because of a housing shortage.
The number of immigrants in the U.S. illegally is less than half the number Vance cited; estimates put the number between 12 million and 14 million people as of 2023, the latest data available.
Evidence doesn’t support the idea that immigrants in the country illegally are a primary driver of high housing costs.
Instead, experts point to a shortage of millions of homes caused by years of underbuilding. An interest rate surge and increased demand for homes during the pandemic exacerbated the problem.
Vance’s statement contains an element of truth; a housing shortage is one of the primary drivers of U.S. high housing costs. But he misrepresents the number of immigrants in the country illegally and ignores critical facts about immigration’s effect on housing. We rate it Mostly False.
Families need a household income of more than $200,000 in order to buy a detached single-family home in the D.C. region, according to Bright MLS.
Families need a household income of more than $200,000 in order to buy a detached single-family home in the D.C. region, according to new data from listing service Bright MLS.
Lisa Sturtevant, the group’s chief economist, said the median price of a single-family home in the D.C. region is about $800,000. That means family income of about $230,000 is necessary to make that type of house affordable.
In parts of Northern Virginia, homes are even more expensive. Single-family houses in places such as Arlington, and parts of Alexandria and McLean, could cost over $1 million, which requires a family income of over $300,000.
The market, Sturtevant said, is becoming increasingly challenging for first-time buyers. This week, the National Association of Realtors said the median age of first-time homebuyers reached 40.
Buyers who made purchases during the pandemic capitalized on low mortgage rates and are benefiting from equity growing in their house, Sturtevant said.
But, for others, “inventory is increasing, but price points are still so high, and it’s really hard for many of those buyers to get in,” Sturtevant said. “So they’re waiting, they’re renting longer and they’re waiting longer, and that’s why we’re seeing the average age of a first-time homebuyer on the rise.”
The median price of homes sold in the D.C. region last month was $630,000, according to the Bright MLS report, up from $600,000 in October 2024. That figure includes condos, townhomes and single-family homes.
A household income of about $200,000 is required to afford a D.C.-area home that costs more than $600,000, Sturtevant said, considering factors such as a mortgage and home insurance.
Meanwhile, Sturtevant called the Northern Virginia housing market resilient, given the layoffs at federal agencies and the government shutdown.
In Fairfax County last month, the median sales price for all homes was $745,000. In Loudoun County, it was $741,000.
In Montgomery County, Maryland, it was $625,000, and in Prince George’s County, it was over $452,000. In D.C., it was $675,000.
In Northern Virginia, Sturtevant said the high-end housing market has been robust.
“Homes priced at $1.5 to $2.5 million and higher, we’re seeing a much stronger market in that segment than we are in the entry-level market and the more moderately-priced market,” Sturtevant said. “That says to me that folks at the higher income levels are actually just feeling a little bit more financially secure right now.”
If buyers have flexibility in the type of home they want to buy, Sturtevant said there are more condos on the market in Northern Virginia and D.C. than in 2019.
Sellers are also expecting a negotiation.
“If you’re seeing a home that’s outside your price range, there are more and more sellers dropping their asking prices and negotiating,” Sturtevant said.
There are weaker housing market conditions in Montgomery and Prince George’s County, Sturtevant said, and in D.C., there’s been “a real strong pullback in showing activity, in the number of people putting offers on homes.”
Get breaking news and daily headlines delivered to your email inbox by signing up here.
The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board said the 5,592 homes sold last month was up 8.5% from September of last year, and up 2% on a seasonally adjusted basis from August. The rise in sales came as the average selling price was down 4.7% from last year to $1,059,377, and the composite benchmark price was down 5.5% in September. Compared with August, the average selling price ticked up 0.2%.
“The Bank of Canada’s September interest rate cut was welcome news for homebuyers,” said TRREB president Elechia Barry-Sproule in a press release. “With lower borrowing costs, more households are now able to afford monthly mortgage payments on a home that meets their needs.”
The central bank cut its benchmark rate by a quarter-percentage point to 2.5% on Sept. 17, breaking a streak of three consecutive holds since March.
You’re 2 minutes away from getting the best mortgage rates.
Answer a few quick questions to get a personalized quote, whether you’re buying, renewing or refinancing.
GTA home sales show early rebound
Consumers are starting to recognize “a new normal” when it comes to the economic and political situation, said Cailey Heaps, president of the Heaps Estrin Real Estate Team in Toronto. Although the GTA has not returned to the peak levels of activity seen during the pandemic years, there are “rays of sunshine within the market,” said Heaps.
“We’re likely near the bottom or climbing out of the bottom, so it feels like opportunistically a good time to enter (the market),” she said in a phone interview. “I think there’s sort of this buyer mindset of, ‘It’s OK to buy again.’”
New listings of 19,260 were up 3.9% from last year, and down 3.3%, seasonally adjusted, from August. Active listings were up 18.9% from last year with 29,394 homes on the market.
In the City of Toronto, there were 2,063 sales last month, a 13.2% increase from September 2024. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales were up 5.9% to 3,529. Overall, all property types saw more sales in September compared with a year ago throughout the region. The largest increase was in the semi-detached segment, which was up 11%, followed by detached houses with a 9.6% increase and condos with a 7.2% increase. The number of townhouses that changed hands was 4.4% higher than in September 2024.
Lower rates may spur buyer activity
The board said more interest rate cuts from the Bank of Canada could help further push up sales.
Article Continues Below Advertisement
“While home sales have improved over the past year, they still remain below normal levels relative to the number of households in the GTA,” said the board’s chief information officer Jason Mercer. “Two more 25-basis-point interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada would see monthly mortgage payments move more in line with homebuyers’ average incomes, further spurring home sales and related economic activity.”
Heaps said “it will be some time” before the market truly soars back to peak levels, but continued interest rate cuts are one factor that will lure potential buyers off the sidelines. “We need to see tightening of inventory and that will just inherently happen as buyers re-enter the market,” she said. “From a broader perspective, people just need to get comfortable that the Canadian economy is heading in the right direction.”
Get free MoneySense financial tips, news & advice in your inbox.
The Canadian Press is Canada’s trusted news source and leader in providing real-time stories. We give Canadians an authentic, unbiased source, driven by truth, accuracy and timeliness.
While women have been increasing their share of the home-buying market and single women actually own more homes than single men today, their chances of getting their mortgage application denied are actually far higher, a recent study shows.
Single female mortgage applicants were nearly 30 percent more likely to be denied than single men, according to a new LendingTree report.
Why It Matters
Purchasing a home has become increasingly unaffordable in recent years as home prices remain at record highs and mortgage rates are still well beyond their pandemic lows.
While many millennials and Gen Zers would like to buy a home, their finances are not on the level necessary to get approved for a mortgage, and lenders favoring male potential homeowners could exacerbate the issue.
What To Know
Single female mortgage applicants are 29.8 percent more likely to be denied a mortgage than single men, according to LendingTree.
“It’s not because some mustache-twirling loan officer is sitting there going, ‘A woman? Absolutely not!’ It’s actually more insidious than that. The system itself is doing the dirty work,” Michael Ryan, finance expert and founder of MichaelRyanMoney.com, told Newsweek.
“Women are still making about 85 cents for every dollar a guy makes, right? And when you apply for a mortgage, lenders look at something called your debt-to-income ratio (DTI). It’s basically how much you owe versus how much you earn. Sounds fair enough on paper. But when you’re earning less from the jump? That ratio looks way worse, even if you’re just as reliable with money. Maybe even more reliable.”
The only place where single female mortgage applicants outnumbered single men was in Washington, D.C., where women were 32 percent versus 29.2 percent of men, application-wise.
The largest disparity for rejected applications was in Louisiana, where women were denied 29 percent of the time compared to 18.1 percent of single men. Mississippi and Alabama followed.
However, the report also found that single men who take on mortgages tend to pay more monthly than single women in every state. The largest pay gaps were in Hawaii, California and Washington, where men paid $578 or more higher than women.
In 2024, single women garnered $173.3 billion in mortgage debt, whereas men took on a much higher $328.7 billion.
“A lot of this comes down to debt-to-income ratios and credit history length. Men, on average, still earn more than women and often have longer credit files,” Kevin Thompson, CEO of 9i Capital Group and host of the 9innings podcast, told Newsweek. “That matters when lenders are sizing up risk. The size of the loan can play a role too. Smaller loans sometimes get flagged as less creditworthy, even if that doesn’t tell the full story.”
What People Are Saying
Ryan also told Newsweek: “We keep treating it like it’s a lending problem, like we need to fix the banks. But honestly? The real issue happened way upstream, back at the payroll office. The mortgage application is just holding up a mirror to decades of women getting paid less. Like blaming your bathroom scale for the fact that you ate an entire pizza last night, you know?”
Thompson also told Newsweek: “Gender and ethnicity have always shaped access to credit and homeownership. The fact that women, particularly single women, still face higher denial rates highlights the biases that are baked into the system. The good news is these numbers are being brought out into the open instead of being normalized. That creates space to ask the harder questions, get to the root causes, and break down barriers that have held back women and people of color for generations.”
Alex Beene, financial literacy instructor for the University of Tennessee at Martin, told Newsweek: “Unfortunately, this report introduces data we’ve mostly already known: the challenge is greater for sole women applying for a mortgage than sole men. The prevailing factor is the income gap. Women tend to choose careers that generate less income than their male counterparts, and lenders obviously view this as a greater risk. Hopefully, as women advance in new, higher paying career fields, this discrepancy will lessen with time.”
What Happens Next
Ryan said the ripple effects of the data are creating two entirely different housing markets in America.
“You’ve got couples with two incomes who can swing a nice place, and then you’ve got single buyers, especially single women, trying to compete with one hand tied behind their back,” Ryan said.
“Even when women do manage to buy a house, they’re taking out loans that are about $57,000 smaller on average. Which sounds responsible, maybe even smart! Until you realize that smaller loan means less house, less equity building up over time. And get this, they actually end up paying more in interest over their lifetime. Something like $7,000 more. Plus they’re accumulating 30 percent less wealth overall.”
Thompson said the lending skew will ultimately create worsened housing markets.
“If qualified buyers continue to face systemic denials, it slows demand, creates uneven access to wealth-building through homeownership, and reinforces inequality,” Thompson said. “Fixing these gaps isn’t just about fairness. It’s about creating a healthier, more inclusive housing market.”
The association said there were 40,257 home sales across the country last month, up 1.9% from 39,522 in August 2024. Home sales also rose 1.1% on a month-over-month basis, marking the fifth straight monthly increase. Transactions have risen a cumulative 12.5% since March.
Toronto slows, but other major markets drive gains
Unlike in recent months when gains were led overwhelmingly by the Greater Toronto Area, sales in that region were down slightly month-over-month in August. But the association said this was more than offset by higher sales in Montreal, Greater Vancouver and Ottawa.
CREA senior economist Shaun Cathcart said the upward trend in activity could accelerate this fall as the season usually brings a surge of new supply. “Part of what drives sales at different points in the year is the availability of a lot of fresh property listings for buyers to buy. For the fall market, that always happens right at the beginning of September, and this year was no exception,” he said in a press release. “If last year is any kind of guide, then there is the potential that sales could really pick up in the next month or so depending on how many buyers are drawn off the sidelines, particularly if we see a September rate cut by the Bank of Canada.”
The central bank is set to announce its latest interest rate decision on Wednesday. Financial markets expect the Bank of Canada to cut its policy rate by a quarter point to 2.5%, ending a streak of three consecutive holds.
You’re 2 minutes away from getting the best mortgage rates.
Answer a few quick questions to get a personalized quote, whether you’re buying, renewing or refinancing.
Atlantic sales slightly ahead of last year despite challenges
There’s been “muted momentum” as of late in Atlantic Canada, said Halifax-based broker Matt Honsberger, who noted the region experienced a downturn earlier in the year due to uncertainty related to tariffs. Honsberger, president and owner of Royal LePage Atlantic, referred to the Maritime housing market as a “kiddie-coaster” when compared with the larger swings of Toronto’s roller-coaster market. He said Atlantic Canada has seen “much less significant” ups and downs from the U.S.-Canada trade war.
“We were of course affected by tariffs. People just become uncertain and when you’re uncertain you don’t make a big purchase, so we definitely expected a busier spring than we got,” said Honsberger. “But at this point in the year given everything that’s gone on, to be slightly ahead of where we were this time last year in terms of the number of trades, I think we’ll all take it. Hopefully we’ll continue to build momentum into next year as people get more and more comfortable with the geopolitical environment.”
Canada’s average home price up 1.8% year-over-year
CREA said new listings were up 2.6% month-over-month nationally in August. There were 195,453 properties listed for sale across Canada at the end of August, up 8.8% from a year earlier. The actual national average sale price of a home sold in August was $664,078, up 1.8% from a year ago. CREA’s own home price index, which aims to represent the sale of typical homes, ticked 0.1% lower between July and August 2025.
TD economist Rishi Sondhi said improving demand should contribute to the continued growth of average home prices. He said supply and demand conditions are still “relatively tight” across several provinces. “In contrast, market balances favour buyers in B.C. and Ontario,” Sondhi said in a note. “However, average home prices in these markets have been lifted by the outperformance of more expensive housing in recent months, and we assume this trend will continue in coming months.”
Article Continues Below Advertisement
Honsberger said despite renewed demand, it’s important that sellers price their properties appropriately as the market isn’t yet seeing all-out bidding wars.
“What we’re hearing from clients is that sellers still want to potentially overprice their property a little bit and buyers are just saying, ‘I’m not interested. I’ll just wait it out,’” he said. “It’s still a healthy market … If you put it on at the right price now, you should expect some level of activity, and you should probably expect to sell it in a reasonable amount of time.”
Get free MoneySense financial tips, news & advice in your inbox.
The Canadian Press is Canada’s trusted news source and leader in providing real-time stories. We give Canadians an authentic, unbiased source, driven by truth, accuracy and timeliness.
John Fabbricatore enforced federal immigration laws in his position as an ICE field office director until two years ago, and now he hopes to help secure America’s borders as a congressman.
The Republican candidate in Colorado’s 6th Congressional District is drawing on his career with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement as he runs against U.S. Rep. Jason Crow in the Nov. 5 election. Crow, a Democrat, just finished his third term in Congress as the representative of the district, which includes Aurora, Littleton, Englewood, Greenwood Village and Centennial.
The odds weigh heavily in Crow’s favor. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report doesn’t consider the fight for the 6th District to be competitive. It’s ranked as solidly Democratic, in part because Crow, 45, won all three of his elections by double-digit percentages and redistricting in 2020 resulted in boundaries more favorable to Democrats.
That’s a change from 2018 when the district was seen as a battleground and Crow won his first race by unseating then-U.S. Rep. Mike Coffman, now Aurora’s mayor.
But this time, Fabbricatore, 52, says voters are looking for a candidate who will prioritize the economy and lower taxes — and he contends that he’s the person for the job.
“They want someone that wants to fight,” Fabbricatore said.
He and Crow share certain traits. They’re both veterans: Fabbricatore served in the U.S. Air Force, and Crow was an Army Ranger. They’re hunters, each having longstanding experience with firearms. Neither hails from Colorado originally, with Fabbricatore raised in New York City and Crow in Madison, Wisconsin.
And the candidates, both fathers of two children, reside in Aurora.
Beyond that, their stances on major issues diverge — including on immigration, which Fabbricatore refers to as his “subject matter expertise.”
He argues jobs are going to immigrants compensated with lower wages, taking positions that could be filled by Americans for higher pay. Fabbricatore says he supports “legal, vetted” immigration and more stringent enforcement of existing laws.
“If we actually just enforce those laws, we will be doing much better than we are doing today with immigration,” he said.
In recent weeks, Fabbricatore has raised the alarm alongside former President Donald Trump and other conservatives about the presence of Venezuelan gangs in Aurora — while Crow has called out exaggerations and criticized Trump for distorting the problems in certain apartment complexes.
Crow notes that he represents “one of the most diverse districts in the nation,” with nearly 20% of his constituents born outside of the U.S. He wants to use federal grants and other programs to help immigrants and defend them against racist rhetoric.
He said he backed a bipartisan immigration deal that ran aground earlier this year after failing to earn enough Republican support. It would have boosted the number of border patrol agents, immigration judges and officers that oversee asylum cases, as well as established more legal pathways for migrants and others without documentation.
Fabbricatore said in a Denver Post candidate questionnaire that he would not have supported the bipartisan bill, instead preferring another bill with a greater focus on border security.
Gun violence is what motivated Crow to run for office. He backs a ban on assault weapons and supports universal background checks. He’s also working to pass a bill that would apply the same restrictions to out-of-state residents when they purchase long guns and shotguns as they face when buying handguns — requiring that the gun be shipped to a federally licensed seller in their home state, with a background check performed there.
Gun violence is “just an unacceptable, avoidable, ongoing national tragedy,” Crow said. “We don’t have to live with mass shootings.”
Fabbricatore says he believes in gun rights and is instead pushing for investments in mental health.
The candidates differ on abortion. Crow favors abortion rights, saying he aligns with the majority of Coloradans who back legal access to abortion — and he would support a federal law establishing that as a right. Fabbricatore says Congress should leave abortion’s legal status to the states. He opposes abortion, but he says he recognizes a need for exceptions, including in cases of rape.
“Having been someone who worked in sex trafficking and saw what many women went through, I could never tell a woman that she couldn’t have a medical procedure to end what happened to her,” he said.
Fabbricatore points to the economy as his No. 1 issue, saying it’s impacted by energy policy and immigration. He sees Colorado’s potential to participate in the energy sector through solar, wind, fracking and coal.
He says he wants to leave the younger generations with a prosperous economy, reliable job market and reasonable housing prices.
Crow says the nation’s inflation and interest rates are dropping, but he contends that prices are still “way too high for many Coloradans.”
He points to corporate price gouging as a contributing factor. Crow argues that the labor shortage, which drives up prices, could be addressed through immigration reform.
“There’s more work to do, but we’re on a good path — and certainly need to keep on the path that we are to make sure things are affordable,” Crow said.
In the company’s fall economic outlook released Thursday, it forecasts the central bank’s interest rate will fall to 3.75% by the end of this year and a neutral rate of 2.75% by mid next year.
Meanwhile, it expects the economy to grow moderately as softer labour market conditions persist, especially as many home owners have yet to face higher rates when they refinance their loans.
“We do think that we’re going to be in for a decent year next year,” said Dawn Desjardins, chief economist at Deloitte Canada.
It appears Canada will successfully skirt a recession despite the impact of higher borrowing costs on the economy, said Desjardins.
“It’s hard to argue that the economy is just skating through this period of higher interest rates. But having said that, the overall numbers themselves continue to show the economy is expanding,” she said.
“Yes, the labour market has softened, but I don’t think we’re in any kind of crisis in the labour market at this time.”
Higher interest rates impacting economic growth, labour market
The Bank of Canada has cut its benchmark rate three times so far this year as inflation has eased, and signalled more cuts are coming.
Inflation in Canada hit the central bank’s 2% target in August, falling from 2.5 in July to reach its lowest level since February 2021.
Irvine, an Orange County city miles from the beach, has become the hottest residential market in the nation.
Over the past year, the price of a median priced home in the central OC city jumped 20.8 percent to $1.56 million, the highest run-up in the U.S., the Los Angeles Times reported, citing a review by Home Economics based on Zillow figures.
Irvine has also outperformed other California cities in population growth and homebuilding.
While Los Angeles, San Francisco and other large cities have lost thousands of residents, Irvine has added more than 13,000 people in the past three years, the most in the state.
During that period, the city grew to 315,000 residents, leaping ahead of Santa Ana to become the state’s 13th largest city.
Of the nearly 100,000 net new homes built in OC since 2010, 35,000 sprang up in Irvine.
The popularity of Irvine is an affirmation of one of the nation’s largest master-planned communities, according to the Times.
Six decades ago, the Newport Beach-based Irvine Company led by Donald Bren began turning 100,000 acres of ranchland, beanfields and citrus groves into a series of self-contained suburban villages.
Over time, Irvine built a reputation for excellent public schools, low crime and parks.
The economic engine of UC Irvine and the city’s premium office towers helped create a haven for upwardly mobile families, especially those arriving in recent decades from East Asia.
“It’s such a clean, safe city that still has room to add more housing and jobs,” John Burns, CEO of Irvine-based John Burns Real Estate Consulting, told the Times. “Nothing else in Southern California is like that.”
That area includes Great Park, a former Marine air base of 4,700 acres. A lengthy debate over its future was settled in 2002 in favor of residential development. A quarter of the site is set aside for parks, and the city is planning for as many as 15,800 homes.
Construction in Great Park allows Irvine to continue to outpace surrounding communities in homebuilding. In the past five years, the 9,400 homes permitted in Irvine is double the next largest amount of any OC city, according to the U.S. Census.
Analysts say Irvine’s supply of new homes is still being outpaced by demand, especially since the city serves as one of OC’s employment hubs.
Adjacent cities have seen significant price appreciation. Besides Irvine, four other spots in Orange County — Laguna Niguel, Tustin, Lake Forest and Mission Viejo — are in the top 12 U.S. cities with the highest jump in home values over the past year, according to Zillow.
— Dana Bartholomew
Read more
OC billionaire sells pair of Irvine office buildings for $60M
Donald Bren of Irvine Company leads parade of OC’s wealthiest
Inari Medical expands with 27K sf office sublease in Irvine
After the Federal Reserve closed July by maintaining the benchmark Fed funds rate at 5.25% to 5.5%, where it’s been for over a year, investors have been clamoring for a do-over.
The S&P 500 plunged 6% over the first three trading days of August as a raft of downbeat economic data convinced investors that the economy was weakening faster than expected and the Fed had erred in not lowering rates.
Stocks plunged on Monday as a surprise interest rate hike in Japan led to the unwind of a global “carry trade” in which investors had borrowed low-interest yen to invest in risky assets in the U.S. like the “Magnificent Seven” stocks.
As a result of the sharp three-day sell-off, economists now expect the Fed to cut rates by 50 basis points in its September meeting and at least another 50 basis points before the year’s over.
The economy is likely to remain uncertain, but one thing is clear. Lower interest rates will help to revive a struggling housing market, breathing new life into stocks that depend on real estate transactions.
That industry has been hit hard by the slowdown in the housing market, but a turnaround could be near. One stock that could soar in the recovery is Compass (NYSE: COMP), the nation’s No. 1 real estate brokerage by sales volume.
Image source: Getty Images.
Can Compass get back on track?
Compass went public in the spring of 2021 when the real estate market was booming, and mortgage rates were around 3%. However, that boom did not last long, and by the time 2022 rolled around, revenue was sliding, and the stock was flailing.
With the housing market remaining on ice, Compass has focused on realigning its cost structure, investing in technology, and growing its base of agents, which has helped drive revenue higher even in a challenging market.
Revenue increased 14% to $1.7 billion in the second quarter, and Compass’s number of principal agents rose 24% to nearly 17,000 as it’s luring new agents with an attractive technology platform and a steady marketing push. After two years of declines in total transactions, the business has returned to growth, a sign that the industry is starting to turn around.
Compass is also targeting positive free cash flow this year and is making progress in profitability as adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) jumped from $30.1 million to $77.4 million in the seasonally strong second quarter.
The real estate brokerage industry is in flux after a lawsuit against the National Association of Realtors forced brokerages to amend their business model with more disclosures and information that makes it clear that traditional 3% commissions are negotiable. As a part of the settlement agreement, Compass agreed to pay $57.5 million.
Compass has also assuaged concerns that the agreement would dramatically change the industry, noting in May that in the initial weeks after the settlement, 99% of new listings included offers to pay the buyers agent, and 96% included commission offers of 2% or more. Compass believes the settlement will have little impact on professional full-time agents.
What lower interest rates would mean for Compass
The housing market will probably never return to the heady early days of the pandemic when Americans in cities were plucking up second homes and suburban plots with yards, and mortgage rates fell to less than 3%.
However, there is substantial pent-up demand from homebuyers looking for falling rates to effectively lower prices by bringing down monthly payments and from potential home sellers who may not want to give up their low mortgage rates when current rates are so high.
In June, existing home sales fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.89 million, down from a peak of 6.6 million in 2021, a decline of 41%. Reversing that loss would mean a surge in existing home sales of 70%.
Compass doesn’t need that to happen, but even getting back to pre-pandemic levels would mean a 50% increase from current existing home sales, and that should make a significant difference on the bottom line. CEO Robert Reffkin told investors this spring, “We believe when rates come down it will create a massive surge in transactions,” and he predicted lower rates would mean hundreds of millions in adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow, assuming normalized annual home sales of 5.4 million-5.6 million homes.
The business is already moving in the right direction, with revenue up double digits, and growth is likely to accelerate substantially as mortgage rates come down and the housing market picks up again.
Compass stock has already more than doubled from its low last November, trending with hopes of a recovery in the housing market and stabilization in its own business. Down 79%, Compass doesn’t have to recoup those losses to be a winner. The stock could double by only retracing a quarter of those losses.
If the Fed cooperates and the housing market shows signs of life, a double for the real estate brokerage stock from here certainly seems within reach.
Should you invest $1,000 in Compass right now?
Before you buy stock in Compass, consider this:
The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Compass wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.
Consider when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005… if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $641,864!*
Stock Advisor provides investors with an easy-to-follow blueprint for success, including guidance on building a portfolio, regular updates from analysts, and two new stock picks each month. TheStock Advisorservice has more than quadrupled the return of S&P 500 since 2002*.
Jeremy Bowman has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Trump Victory Could Ignite Massive Refinance Boom And Record Home Sales, Experts Say
Many Americans, who are generally not satisfied with today’s economy, are focusing on the 2024 presidential election. The U.S. real estate industry and many other sectors are speculating on the implications of a potential second term for Donald Trump.
Many economists have considered what a second presidential term under Trump would mean. They’ve provided insight on everything from interest rates and tax cuts to housing prices and inflation.
Don’t Miss:
Marty Harlee, president and CEO of First Trust Financial, said he expects Trump to recommend to the Federal Reserve that it lower interest rates to keep the economy moving quickly.
“If former President Donald Trump should win the upcoming election, we would see another massive refinance boom along with a record number of home sales,” Harlee told GOBankingRates. “Lowering rates would move every other industry upward as well.”
Dennis Shirshikov, a professor of finance, economics, and accounting at the City University of New York, said that the Trump administration’s economic policies would likely focus on deregulation and tax cuts. These could stimulate economic growth and increase disposable income for many Americans. They could also benefit the housing market by increasing demand for homes.
“For instance, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, which Trump signed into law during his first term, led to an increase in after-tax income for many individuals and businesses, providing more capital for home purchases and investments in real estate,” Shirshikov said.
With the rising cost of living and affordability among the major concerns many Americans have, housing and construction are being discussed more in the political arena, said Kateryna Odarchenko, a political strategist who also has a real estate license in Maryland.
“Donald Trump’s 2024 campaign includes several initiatives related to the housing market and construction sector, building on the policies from his previous term,” Odarchenko said.
During his first term, Trump worked on increasing homeownership rates, extending eviction moratoriums during the pandemic, and proposing the privatization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
“These efforts have implications for future homebuyers and the housing market at large,” Odarchenko said. “His administration also introduced tax reforms such as opportunity zones to stimulate investment in underdeveloped areas and capped property, income and sales tax deductions, affecting homeowners differently across the country.”
If Trump is reelected, the real estate market could suffer. If rates come down, housing prices will increase, and the available supply will decline, Harlee said.
“In general, interest rates and the housing market always do well with Republicans in office,” Harlee said. “I think it’s safe to say the same would be true if Trump wins reelection.”
Shirshikov said that deregulation and tax cuts can stimulate economic activity. Still, they can also lead to inflation, which could cause the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to control it. That may make mortgages more expensive and reduce housing affordability.
“Trump’s tenure was marked by significant market volatility, partly due to his unconventional approach to policy and communication,” he said. “This unpredictability can create uncertainty in the housing market, causing potential buyers and investors to hesitate.”
Read Next:
“ACTIVE INVESTORS’ SECRET WEAPON” Supercharge Your Stock Market Game with the #1 “news & everything else” trading tool: Benzinga Pro – Click here to start Your 14-Day Trial Now!
Bryan Tucker began looking for a starter home in the Washington, D.C., suburbs earlier this year. He soon decided it wasn’t worth it.
In Arlington, Va., where he was looking, he found that most options he was interested in were priced over $1 million and way out of his budget. So he decided to renew his apartment lease another year.
“I have looked,” said Tucker, a 27-year-old project manager in the tech industry. “The only options that are really affordable for me for the next year are condos.”
Would-be buyers like Tucker are staying in the rental market longer as the housing market remains out of reach for many. Apartment owners have noted on recent earnings calls that the share of renters moving out to buy homes is at record lows.
Multifamily and single-family rental REITs across the country have reported strong appetite for new and renewal leases as home ownership remains unaffordable for many. (John Tlumacki/The Boston Globe via Getty Images) (Boston Globe via Getty Images)
“The monthly cost of owning a home today is 61% more than leasing an apartment,” Richard Campo, CEO Camden Property Trust (CPT), a Houston-based owner of 58,000 apartment homes, said on the company’s first quarter earnings call in early May. “This is not going to change anytime soon.”
Mortgage rates are currently hovering around 7%, continuing to make borrowing expensive for potential buyers. Higher rates have also convinced many current homeowners to delay moving since they financed their homes at lower rates. That’s kept a lid on supply and helped drive home prices sky high.
Home prices hit fresh records in March, according to the latest data available from Case-Shiller. Economists at Bank of America expect home prices to grow 4% this year.
Camden said that just 9.4% of move-outs in the first quarter were due to its residents buying a home — the lowest in history.
Similarly, AvalonBay Communities (AVB), a REIT that owns nearly 80,000 apartment units, reported in its first quarter report that the share of people moving out to buy a home hit a record low, namely because of high costs of homeownership.
“Demand for [rentals] also continues to benefit from the differential in the cost of owning a home versus renting,” Ben Schall, CEO and president at AvalonBay, said in late April to investors and analysts.
“This is true across most of the country but particularly pronounced in our markets, given the level of home prices, resulting in it being more than $2,000 per month more expensive to own versus rent a home,” he added.
A recent report from Redfin suggests renters are more likely to stay put for the long run than they were a decade ago. According to the company’s analysis of renter tenure data from the Census Bureau, almost 17% of renters stayed in their home for a decade or more in 2022, up from 14% 10 years ago. The trend was similar for those who lived in their homes for five to nine years — the percentage of renters doing so rose to 16% from 14%.
“The rate environment is not looking good. That’s something that might keep the trend sticky, because mortgage rates are high and it’s not looking like they’re changing anytime soon,” Sheharyar Bokhari, Redfin senior economist, told Yahoo Finance in an interview.
At its June policy meeting, the Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate — which affects the direction of mortgage rates — steady and projected just one rate cut this year, down from a previous forecast of three.
To be sure, renting an apartment has become less affordable too. The median asking rent has increased 23% over the past five years, according to Redfin data.
That has buyers like Tucker weighing their options. He found that he could reasonably afford a $1,600 to $2,000 mortgage payment, assuming he put 20% down — not too far off from what he spends in monthly payments for rent.
“I’m fine with [renting] for now, but for the long term, eventually I would like to get a house,” Tucker said. “If that involves moving elsewhere, then I’m prepared to do that.”
Dani Romero is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter @daniromerotv.
But if you have some flexibility around where to live, there are cities and neighbourhoods in Canada where homes can be had for less than seven figures—lots of them, in fact. All but five of the 45 cities and regions analyzed by our partner Zoocasa in this year’s Where to Buy Real Estate in Canada report had benchmark prices below $1 million (as of the end of 2023).
See the list of Canadian cities and regions below, in order of most to least affordable (followed by neighbourhood data for Toronto and Vancouver). You can sort the data in each table by tapping on the column headers, or filter results using the last row. You can download the data to your device in Excel, CSV and PDF formats.
Canadian cities and regions with a benchmark price under $1 million
Prohibitively high prices around Greater Toronto and B.C.’s Lower Mainland can obscure the fact that the national average home price was a tad under $735,000 in 2023, according to the benchmark Zoocasa used in its analysis.
And even in the regions with benchmark prices above the $1-million threshold, the survey demonstrates there are more affordable neighbourhoods to be found. It should be noted our statistics do not differentiate between housing types, so don’t expect to find detached homes for these prices in these cities. But it’s still possible to get a toehold in the market with a condo or townhouse for less than $1 million, sometimes a lot less.
You’re 2 minutes away from getting the best mortgage rates in CanadaAnswer a few quick questions to get a personalized rate quote*You will be leaving MoneySense. Just close the tab to return.
Where to get a home for less than $1 million in Toronto
Our survey turned up no less than 106 neighbourhoods in the city of Toronto with benchmark prices below $1 million—the most affordable being Tandridge, with a benchmark price of just $484,269.
Toronto neighbourhoods
With prices like those, you might assume there’s something wrong with these neighbourhoods. Consider that a lot of them are coming up in the world. Tandridge, along with Rivalda Heights, Keelegate, Humbergate, Cook Village, Duncanwoods, Morningside, Woodbine Downs, South Steeles, Glenfield, Chapel Glen, Dorset Park, Glen Long and Mount Olive have all seen price appreciation of 50% or more over the past five years. Yorkwoods and University Village have both gone up more than 80%, and Beaumond Heights, an astonishing 113%!
Beyond those in the city of Toronto, we count an additional 65 neighbourhoods across the Greater Toronto Area where the benchmark price was below $1 million at the end of 2023.
Greater Toronto Area neighbourhoods
How much would a typical home in Toronto’s Tandridge neighbourhood cost you in monthly mortgage payments? Using a mortgage payment calculator, we find that with the minimum down payment of $24,213 and a mortgage of 25 years, you’d be looking at a monthly payment of $2,685—based on the lowest available five-year fixed mortgage rate on June 13. Add in taxes, insurance and fees, and you’d need a total of $40,706 in cash to close the deal. With 20% down ($96,854), the monthly payment would be $2,240 on a 25-year amortization.
Where to get a home for less than $1 million in Vancouver
In the city of Vancouver, which represents less than one-quarter of the Metro Vancouver population, we counted just six enclaves with benchmark prices under $1 million.
Joshua Tree’s housing market during its pandemic surge looked like an investment oasis, but instead it may have been a mirage.
The market in the California desert has dried up after exploding four years ago, the Wall Street Journal reported. Those who bought homes in recent years — which are typically modest, despite some architectural marvels — are facing a difficult dilemma if they choose to sell.
Joshua Tree home values jumped significantly during peak Covid. In July 2020, the typical value in the area was $217,007, according to the Zillow Home Value Index. Two years later, that number had more than doubled to $467,348. But as of February this year, the typical home value fell to $385,941.
Approximately 40 percent of the market’s 199 listed homes have seen price reductions, Bryan Wynwood, a local agent told WSJ. Buyers are also grappling with increased interest and mortgage rates from the height of the pandemic, which is having an impact on markets across the nation.
Wynwood did, however, admit that the price boom was unsustainable.
During the height of the pandemic, homes were often sold in under two weeks. But in February, those that did sell were on the market for a median of 106 days, according to Redfin.
One factor impacting Joshua Tree’s housing market is its popularity as a tourist destination. In 2021, more than 3 million people visited the area, according to the National Park Service. The trickle effect has increased demand — and supply — of short-term rentals, which have nearly doubled in four years, upping competition and dragging down long-term rents.
Investors who bet on long-term rentals are not making as much money as expected, so buyers are thinking twice about the potential payoff they can deliver in the future. According to one source WSJ spoke with, sales may instead be driven by investors looking at short-term rental assets.
The agency released its biannual housing supply report on Wednesday, which showed combined housing starts in the Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal, Calgary, Edmonton and Ottawa regions dipped 0.5% compared with 2022, totalling 137,915 units.
That was in line with the annual average of around 140,000 new units over the past three years. CMHC deputy chief economist Aled ab Iorwerth said the 2023 numbers came in “better than we thought.”
“We ended up being positively surprised by 2023. We were really quite concerned that higher interest rates were going to really have an impact,” said ab Iorwerth.
“They did have an impact, but it seems to have been on smaller structures, single-detached (homes) and so forth.”
Apartment starts grew 7% to reach a record 98,774 individual units last year. However, those gains were offset by declines in the number of new single-detached homes, which fell 20% year-over-year, due to weaker demand for higher-priced homes in an elevated mortgage rate environment.
More housing needed to address affordability gaps
The agency continued to warn about the need to ramp up housing construction to address affordability gaps and significant population growth in Canada.
It said housing starts are projected to decrease in 2024, despite the CMHC’s forecast that Canada will require an additional 3.5 million units by 2030, on top of what is currently projected to be built, to restore affordability to levels seen around 2004.
Its report cited rising costs, larger project sizes and labour shortages last year that led to longer construction timelines, prompting various levels of government in Canada to announce new programs aimed at stimulating new rental housing supply.
