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  • Pac-12 MBB power rankings: Only Gonzaga and Utah State are safe for the NCAAs as San Diego State stumbles

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    Welcome to the latest installment of the Hotline’s Pac-12 men’s basketball power rankings, our weekly assessment of the reconstituted conference using results, analytics and a dash of common sense. The power rankings will be published each Monday through the end of the regular season. Here is last week’s edition, which examined how three  Big Ten teams are undermining Gonzaga’s resume.


    A brutal week for San Diego State was, consequently, the worst week of the season for the future Pac-12.

    The Aztecs dropped two games they should have won and slid onto the wrong side of the NCAA Tournament bubble, leaving the conference that doesn’t exist (yet) staring at just two bids for March Madness.

    Gonzaga is a lock. The only unknown for the Zags is whether they can claim a No. 2 seed.

    And Utah State, despite a loss at Nevada, appears safe for the time being.

    San Diego State was the only other member of the rebuilt nine-team Pac-12 with a reasonable chance to qualify for the at-large field.

    But after a face plant at home against Grand Canyon and a road loss to Colorado State — both count as Quadrant II defeats — the Aztecs could miss the NCAAs for the first time since 2019.

    Their NET ranking (44) is in the danger zone, largely because they have just one Quadrant I victory.

    Perhaps more concerning is their position (54) in wins-above-bubble ranking, which measures how each team has performed against its schedule compared to how an average bubble team would fare. (The WAB was added to the selection process last season.)

    All of which leaves the Pac-12 reliant upon upsets in the conference tournaments in order to send a third future member into the upcoming NCAAs:

    — It needs Washington State or Oregon State to win the West Coast Conference and claim the league’s automatic bid. That seems unlikely: They are 0-6 against the WCC’s powers, Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s, and only one of the six games was close.

    — Or it needs San Diego State, Fresno State, Colorado State or Boise State to win the Mountain West. Unreasonable? Hardly. The conference is wide open. But that means one of the schools not headed to the Pac-12 could be the last one standing.

    — Or it needs Texas State to win the Sun Belt title, an outcome that appears far more plausible today than it did a few weeks ago. The Bobcats have won seven of their past eight and defeated several of the frontrunners during their late-season run.

    That would be quite the twist: A school invited to join the Pac-12 entirely because of its football value providing a boost on the basketball side.

    To the power rankings …

    (Results and NET rankings through Sunday)

    1. Gonzaga (27-2)

    Results: won at San Francisco 80-59, beat Pacific 71-62
    NET ranking: No. 5
    Comment: The Zags could not have asked for better results elsewhere in their pursuit of the highest possible seed in the NCAA Tournament. Losses by UConn, Iowa State, Nebraska, Houston, Kansas (and others) all allowed Gonzaga to improve its position relative to the top group. (Previous: 2)

    2. Utah State (23-4)

    Results: beat Boise State 75-56, lost at Nevada 80-77
    NET ranking: No. 24
    Comment: Another loss in conference play could nudge the Aggies uncomfortably close to the bubble. In our view, their impressive NET ranking is a false indicator. Drill down on the metrics that matter, and their resume has some flaws. (Previous: 1)

    3. Boise State (16-11)

    Results: lost at Utah State 75-56, beat San Jose State 84-69
    NET ranking: No. 62
    Comment: The Broncos don’t have enough quality wins to counteract all their bad losses. The net impact on their NET ranking is decidedly negative. (Previous: 4)

    4. San Diego State (18-8)

    Results: lost to Grand Canyon 73-63 and at Colorado State 83-74
    NET ranking: No. 44
    Comment: The Aztecs are stout as ever defensively under coach Brian Dutcher but rank 108th nationally in offensive efficiency, according to the Pomeroy ratings, which measure points-per-possession adjusted for opponents. (Previous: 3)

    5. Colorado State (17-10)

    Results: won at UNLV 91-86, beat San Diego State 83-74
    NET ranking: No. 88
    Comment: The Rams have won five in a row and will finish February with Fresno State (home) and San Jose State (road), so they very well could carry a seven-game winning streak into March. And as we noted, the Mountain West tournament is wide open. (Previous: 8)

    6. Oregon State (15-14)

    Results: beat Pepperdine 83-73
    NET ranking: No. 183
    Comment: The Beavers will enter the West Coast Conference tournament as one of the most difficult teams to project. Unless they face Gonzaga or Saint Mary’s, any outcome is possible. They have looked surprisingly stout at times and predictably poor at others. (Previous: 5)

    7. Washington State (12-17)

    Results: beat Pacific 87-70, lost to Saint Mary’s 83-67
    NET ranking: No. 130
    Comment: Hard to believe but a top-four seed in the WCC tournament is a distinct possibility for the Cougars, who close the regular season at Pepperdine and LMU. (Previous: 6)

    8. Texas State (18-12)

    Results: won at South Alabama 90-82, lost at Louisiana 67-54
    NET ranking: No. 240
    Comment: We’ll know far more about the Bobcats at the end of the week. They host first-place Appalachian State on Thursday in the regular-season finale. (Previous: 9)

    9. Fresno State (12-15)

    Results: lost at Wyoming 92-82 and to New Mexico 80-78
    NET ranking: No. 133
    Comment: The Bulldogs are last here because of their season-long resume. But if the new Pac-12 existed today, we might pick them to win a game in the conference tournament. (Previous: 7)


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    Jon Wilner

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  • Week 11 picks: Breaking down the Holy War, Cal’s long trip, Washington’s huge challenge and a key game for Oregon State

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    The trends suggest Utah is the play Saturday night as a home underdog in the first Holy War in three years.

    Even though the Utes have dropped four in a row and changed playcallers and quarterbacks.

    Even though Brigham Young is undefeated and churning toward a date in the Big 12 title game.

    Even though the Cougars have eight wins and the Utes have four.

    And when the trends speak, the Hotline typically listens. Here’s what they say:

    — Utah has dominated the series, winning 14 of the past 20 matchups and seven of the past nine at Rice-Eccles Stadium.

    — The underdog covered the spread in 15 of those 20 games.

    — When one team has at least three more wins than the other at the time of kickoff, the team with the better record is 3-0 straight up but 1-2 against the spread.

    Those same fundamentals exist this week with the Utes as a four-point home underdog.

    But in a season that makes no sense, with the Cougars and Utes in a role reversal for the ages, our instinct is to avoid the sensible and dismiss the trends.

    To ignore the lure of the home underdog in a series that favors the home underdog.

    Our instinct is to take BYU, give the points and watch the current trajectories continue.

    The Utes find ways to lose.

    The Cougars find ways to win.

    We don’t know how it will unfold but fully expect the unexpected. And in a series dominated by the underdog, the unexpected result would be a decisive victory by the favorite.

    To the picks …

    Last week: 4-3
    Season: 50-35-1
    Five-star special: 5-5

    All picks against the spread
    Lines taken from vegasinsider.com

    (All times Pacific)

    Cal (-7) at Wake Forest
    Kickoff: Friday at 5 p.m. on the ACC Network
    Comment: The Bears as a touchdown favorite on the road? That presents an opportunity we cannot ignore — an opportunity to take the home underdog. Pick: Wake Forest

    San Jose State (+4) at Oregon State
    Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on The CW
    Comment: The Beavers have struggled defensively against the run (186 yards per game), but SJSU has no running game to speak of. First-year coach Ken Niumatalolo, who previously coached Navy’s triple option, is all about the aerial game. That should benefit the Beavers. Pick: Oregon State

    South Carolina (-3.5) at Vanderbilt
    Kickoff: 1:15 p.m. on the SEC Network
    Comment: Few teams across the land have been better against the spread than the Commodores, who have covered in all five SEC games. The Gamecocks will be riding high after their upset of Texas A&M and underestimating their opponent. Pick: Vanderbilt

    UCF (+3) at Arizona State
    Kickoff: 4 p.m. on ESPN2
    Comment: This feels like a pump-the-brakes game for the Sun Devils, who clinched a bowl berth last week and will be feeling good about their trajectory — a bit too good, in our view. Another unexpected result in the wild Big 12. Pick: UCF

    Washington (+13.5) at Penn State
    Kickoff: 5 p.m. on Peacock
    Comment: There’s no better time to visit Happy Valley than the week after Penn State suffers a gut-punch loss to Ohio State. We aren’t sure the Huskies can make enough plays offensively to win, but they should be in position to cover if the Nittany Lions start with an OSU hangover. Pick: Washington

    Brigham Young (-4) at Utah
    Kickoff: 7:15 p.m. on ESPN
    Comment: Both teams had two weeks to prepare, so there’s no competitive advantage either way. One of several crucial differences between the Cougars and Utes is success in situational football: The former scores touchdowns on two of every three trips inside the Red Zone; the latter scores on fewer than half their Red Zone opportunities. Field goals won’t cut it. Pick: Brigham Young

    Utah State (+20.5) at Washington State
    Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. on The CW
    Comment: The Aggies have one victory over an FBS opponent (Wyoming) while the Cougars have one loss to an FBS opponent (Boise State). This should not be close. And it won’t be, at least in the fourth quarter. Pick: Washington State

    Straight-up winners: Wake Forest, Oregon State, Vanderbilt, UCF, Penn State, Brigham Young and Washington State

    Five-star special: Brigham Young. The Cougars are 7-1 against the spread this season; the Utes are 2-6. Let’s not over-complicate the situation.


    *** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to wilnerhotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716

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    Jon Wilner

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  • Pac-12 finances: Athletic departments relied heavily on help from campus last year, but is that support misplaced or money well spent?

    Pac-12 finances: Athletic departments relied heavily on help from campus last year, but is that support misplaced or money well spent?

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    Athletic departments at the 10 public universities in the Pac-12 experienced an $81 million shortfall last year, with only five schools reporting an operating surplus.

    And that’s the good news on money matters across the conference. The situation gets much worse when university support is removed from the budgets.

    That support takes two primary forms in major college athletics: 1) direct transfers from central campus to athletic departments; and 2) money from student fees that’s allocated to athletics.

    In each case, the support is booked as revenue in accordance with the NCAA’s financial reporting rules.

    The 10 public schools in the Pac-12 closed out the 2022-23 fiscal year — the first without COVID policies for spectators — with $1.22 billion in revenue and $1.3 billion in expenses, according to financial documents obtained by the Hotline (Statements of revenues and expenses were due to the NCAA earlier this year.)

    Washington topped the list with $151.6 million in reported revenue, just $1 million more than Oregon, while Washington State was at the bottom with $79 million.

    But the revenue figure includes $138.2 million in campus support through direct transfers and student fees.

    Remove that support and the budget shortfall for the 10 public schools soars to $219.5 million.

    When Stanford’s data is added — the Cardinal was $33.3 million in the red without campus support — the total shortfall for 11 athletic departments climbs to $252.8 million.

    (The conference’s other private school, USC, did not make its athletic department budget for the 2023 fiscal year available.)

    What’s more, the $252.8 million shortfall without campus support does not include an internal loan of $31.6 million to Arizona athletics from the university that was booked as indirect, not direct, revenue.

    So the real deficit for the 11 athletic departments last year was close to $300 million.

    “Schools need to soberly address the role sports is intended to play on campus,” David Carter, an adjunct professor of sports business at USC and founder of the Sports Business Group, wrote in an email.

    Carter added that universities must “measure both the return on investment and the return on objective associated with funding athletic departments.”

    With any assessment of athletic department finances, context is critical:

    — Football and men’s basketball are typically the only sports programs in major college athletics that generate a profit. In the interest of offering broad-based opportunities, each Pac-12 school supports more than a dozen Olympics sports teams that lose money.

    — Support for athletics through direct transfers and student fees is common across major college athletics. The Pac-12’s public universities received an average of $13.8 million from central campus in the 2023 fiscal year, an amount roughly comparable to the support provided by many schools in the Power Five conferences.

    — Only a handful of athletic departments across the country generate an operating surplus without relying on any support from central campus. In the Pac-12, there is just one: Oregon, which produced a $3.8 million profit in 2023.

    Oregon’s situation stands in stark contrast to Arizona State, Cal, Colorado, Stanford and UCLA, which had deficits in excess of $30 million when campus transfers and student fees were removed from their revenue totals.

    In fact, only Washington experienced a shortfall of less than $10 million without direct support. The Huskies were just $8.7 million in the red during the 2022-23 fiscal year.

    So, how much campus support is too much?

    “That’s a complicated question,” said Andrew Zimbalist, a Smith College economics professor and author of the 2017 book Unwinding Madness: What Went Wrong with College Sports and How to Fix It.

    “Schools subsidize a lot of activities at universities. The question is whether the size is proportionate to the importance.”

    Athletic departments generally, and football teams specifically, are often the most visible arm of the 133 universities that participate in the Football Bowl Subdivision.

    There are myriad instances of success leading to increases in brand awareness, philanthropy and applications for admission, especially from out-of-state students required to pay higher tuition fees.

    Perhaps the best recent example was Colorado’s early season surge under new coach Deion Sanders last fall, which did wonders for the school’s visibility. The Buffaloes experienced a 20 percent increase in applications for enrollment in the 2024-25 school year, according to the Boulder Daily Camera.

    Was the increase entirely attributable to Sanders? Definitive conclusions are elusive, but an assistant vice chancellor told the Daily Camera that “the exposure that CU Boulder has received since Coach Prime was hired has been tremendous.”

    Because of the visibility it generates, college athletics is often described as the “front porch” for universities. Competitive success on the field and the court creates a more attractive porch.

    After all, political science lectures aren’t plastered across network television each week.

    “You could make the case that the transfers (from campus) are more of a marketing expense because athletic departments are major ambassadors for the universities,” Carter said.

    “Administrations don’t look at $25 million like it’s money specifically for branding, but they inherently believe that it’s important to have strong athletics.”

    The level of campus support across the Pac-12 ranges dramatically and skews the bottom lines in the financial data schools must report to the NCAA each winter.

    For example, Washington State reported the lowest total revenue, just $79 million, but the Cougars only received $6.8 million in direct campus support in 2023.

    Meanwhile, Colorado reported $127 million in revenue, but the figure included $29.4 million in direct transfers and student fees.

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    Jon Wilner

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