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BRUSSELS — The EU’s high command is calling on European governments to keep talking to China amid deepening tensions between Washington and Beijing.
The European Union’s diplomatic arm wants member countries to “be prepared” for a potentially critical escalation in the crisis over Taiwan, warning that a military conflict would upend the vital supply of microchips to Europe.
But while there’s a need to reduce risks to Europe, it may not seal itself off from China, according to an internal document drafted by the European External Action Service and seen by POLITICO.
The document, which will be discussed by the bloc’s foreign ministers at a gathering in Stockholm on Friday, comes at a crucial time for the EU as it navigates an increasingly complex relationship with China. The U.S. is doubling down on its hawkish stance toward Beijing, while European leaders have not yet agreed on a unified approach.
The paper triggered immediate backlash from some of Europe’s more hawkish governments. “With all possible alarm lights flashing, we seem to prefer hitting a snooze button again,” one senior EU diplomat said on condition of anonymity in order to discuss sensitive issues.
In the document, prepared by the EU executive’s diplomatic officials, the bloc’s 27 member countries are urged to seize “a window of opportunity” to reduce the risk of China’s growing influence over economic and security matters.
A chance remains for Europe to speak directly to President Xi Jinping’s government, the paper says. “China and Europe cannot become more foreign to each other. Otherwise there is a risk that misunderstandings will grow and spread to other areas,” according to the draft.
“Systemic rivalry may feature in almost all areas of engagement. But this must not deter the EU from maintaining open channels of communication and seeking constructive cooperation with China […] Such cooperation can serve to break through a growing self-induced isolation of the Chinese leadership but most importantly should advance the EU’s core interests,” the paper continued.
Friday’s debate at an informal meeting of foreign ministers in Sweden will fire the starting gun on a discussion over the EU’s relationship with China that is expected to dominate policymaking in the coming months, with a more comprehensive debate expected at an EU leaders’ summit in Brussels this June.
De-risking Beijing
The paper calls on member countries to speed up plans for “de-risking” and reducing overdependence on China.
“De-risking can ensure predictability and transparency in our economic and trade relations, while promoting a secure, rules-based approach,” the paper says.
The call for de-risking comes as Beijing appears increasingly impatient with the narrative that it poses a threat to the West. Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang, speaking in Berlin this week, criticized European politicians for attempting to “get rid of China” in the name of de-risking.
The paper also tackles the politically sensitive issue of Taiwan, with ministers due to discuss this issue as well on Friday. French President Emmanuel Macron told POLITICO in an interview last month that Europe should avoid getting dragged into a confrontation between China and the U.S. over the self-governing island, which Beijing claims as its own.
On Taiwan, the paper says: “The EU is […] adamant that any unilateral change of the status quo and use of force could have massive economic, political and security consequences, at global level, especially considering Taiwan’s primary role as supplier of the most advanced semiconductors.”
The document continues: “The EU needs to be prepared for scenarios in which tensions increase significantly. The risk of escalation in the Taiwan Strait clearly shows the necessity to work with partners to deter the erosion of the status quo in the interest of all.”
Some 90 percent of advanced semiconductors imported into the EU come from Taiwan, according to the bloc’s own estimates.
Taiwan’s semiconductor giant TSMC has been under pressure to relocate some of its manufacturing capabilities, but so far it has only moved in the direction of Taiwan’s two presumed security providers — the U.S. and Japan.
On Ukraine, the EU is not impressed with China’s latest diplomatic show, marked by President Xi Jinping’s belated first call with his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
“China’s ’12-point position paper on the Ukraine Crisis’ […] confirms its firmly pro-Russian stance,” the document said. “Direct dialogue between China and Ukraine would be the best opportunity for China to contribute to a fair political settlement,” it continued.
EU member countries should keep warning Beijing to refrain from supporting Russia, including by circumventing sanctions, the same paper added.
The paper also casts gloom on the outlook for China’s domestic development, saying the Asian superpower “is likely to face unprecedented economic and political challenges internally” due to the deceleration of economic growth and demographic change.
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Stuart Lau , Jacopo Barigazzi and Suzanne Lynch
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