Although a short U.S. government shutdown would be unlikely to have much impact on air travel, a prolonged impasse could lead to disruptions for passengers and financial losses for businesses, according to travel experts and industry groups.
The Federal Aviation Administration and Transportation Security Administration define most of their employees as essential, requiring them to work even if the government closes and workers at other federal agencies are furloughed. That means airport screeners, air traffic controllers, federal air marshals, safety inspectors and other workers with the two agencies would be expected to continue showing up on the job — without pay — even if lawmakers fail this week to strike a deal on federal funding.
But things could get messy if a shutdown dragged on and government employees suddenly deprived of a paycheck come under financial pressure, Caleb Harmon-Marshall, a former TSA officer, told CBS News.
“TSA officers are expected to continue to report to work. But in the past, if a shutdown exceeds two weeks, officers start to get frantic, and they stop going to work,” he said, adding that agency personnel may call in sick and even seek other job opportunities if a shutdown persists.
Any ensuing labor shortages can lead to snarled lines at airport security. For example, roughly 10% of TSA workers called in sick during the 34-day government shutdown that started in December 2018 and extended into 2019, driving up screening times at major airports across the country.
“So if officers decide not to come to work, there is less personnel manning checkpoints, and wait times can potentially get longer,” Harmon-Marshall said.
Barring a deal in Congress, a shutdown would begin at 12:01 a.m. on Wednesday, Oct. 1. If lawmakers passed a spending bill, TSA and FAA workers would be entitled to back pay for any time worked during a shutdown.
$1 billion hit
The U.S. Travel Association, a trade group, warned that a government shutdown could cost the economy $1 billion a week, while also inconveniencing passengers and hurting travel industry businesses.
“A shutdown exacerbates staffing shortages among Transportation Security Administration officers and air traffic controllers, threatening longer airport security lines, flight delays and cancellations,” the group said in a Sept. 25 letter. “It halts hiring and training of new air traffic controllers when we are already short more than 2,800 controllers nationwide, and restarting the process adds further delays even after funding is restored.”
The U.S. is already experiencing a shortage of air traffic controllers, and has launched an effort to hire more than 2,000 additional controllers by the end of the fiscal year.
Neither the White House nor the Transportation Department responded to requests for comment about the impact of a potential government shutdown on travel in the U.S.
By contrast, train travel is unlikely to be disrupted if the government closes this week, according to the Rail Passengers Association, which represents the nation’s rail travelers. Although Amtrak receives some federal funding and could eventually be impacted if a shutdown dragged on, the rail service is financially healthy enough to pay workers in the near term and keep trains in operation, the group said in a statement last week.
Passport services are also deemed essential and would be expected to operate during a government shutdown.
Megan Cerullo is a New York-based reporter for CBS MoneyWatch covering small business, workplace, health care, consumer spending and personal finance topics. She regularly appears on CBS News 24/7 to discuss her reporting.
WASHINGTON — Washington is barreling toward a government shutdown Tuesday night, with few signs of an off-ramp as Democrats and Republicans dig in for a fight over government spending.
Democratic leadership on Capitol Hill is insisting on an extension of Affordable Care Act tax credits as part of a package to fund the government. At least seven Democratic votes are needed in the Senate to pass a seven-week stopgap bill that cleared the House last week.
But Republican lawmakers and the White House have dismissed the proposal, with senior officials in the Trump administration threatening to use unique legal authorities granted during a government shutdown to conduct yet more mass firings of federal workers.
Bipartisan congressional leadership met with President Trump at the White House on Monday afternoon in a last-minute effort to avert the crisis. But neither side exited the meeting with expectations of a breakthrough. On the contrary, Republican leaders in the House told the GOP caucus to plan to return to work next week and said they would hold a news conference on Wednesday anticipating the government’s closure.
“We are not going to support a partisan Republican spending bill that continues to gut the healthcare of everyday Americans, period, full stop,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) said Monday.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer talk to reporters outside the White House.
(Alex Brandon / Associated Press)
Vice President JD Vance said he thought the country was “headed to a shutdown,” labeling Democratic calls for healthcare tax credits an “absurd” demand that amounts to an “excuse for shutting down the people’s government.”
“You don’t use your policy disagreements as leverage to not pay our troops,” Vance said. “That’s exactly what they’re proposing out there.”
When the government shuts down, the law requires all nonessential government services to cease, requiring most federal workers to go on furlough or work without pay. Essential services — such as national security functions and air traffic control — are not affected.
Ahead of the meeting, Trump told reporters he hoped Democrats would agree to “keeping our country open,” before proceeding to criticize their proposals.
“They’re going to have to do some things, because their ideas are not very good ones,” Trump said. “They’re very bad for our country. So we’ll see how that works out.”
But Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said he thought his message was beginning to resonate with the president after their meeting Monday afternoon.
“We have very large differences, on healthcare, and on their ability to undo whatever budget we agree to, through rescissions and through impoundment,” Schumer said. “I think for the first time, the president heard our objections and heard why we needed a bipartisan bill. Their bill has not one iota of Democratic input. That is never how we’ve done this before.”
“We’ve made to the president some proposals,” Schumer added. “Ultimately, he’s a decision-maker.”
Schumer faced widespread ridicule from within his party in March after reversing course during the last showdown, choosing then to support the Trump administration’s continuing resolution to fund the government at the height of an aggressive purge of the federal workforce.
At that point, Schumer feared a shutdown could accelerate the firings. But Schumer is now defiant, despite the renewed threat of layoffs, after the White House Office of Management and Budget circulated a memo last week directing federal agencies to relieve workers on discretionary projects that lose funding after Oct. 1.
“This is an attempt at intimidation,” Schumer said in response to the memo. “Donald Trump has been firing federal workers since day one — not to govern, but to scare. This is nothing new and has nothing to do with funding the government.”
Vice President JD Vance talks to reporters as House Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune listen.
(Alex Brandon / Associated Press)
Still, Schumer began gauging his caucus Monday afternoon on the prospects of a continuing resolution that would in effect delay a shutdown by a week, briefly extending government funding in order to continue negotiations.
Betting markets had chances of a shutdown soaring above 70% by the end of the day on Monday.
Speaking to Fox News on Monday, Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, said the president’s position was “the reasonable and commonsense thing to do,” calling on Democrats to continue funding to the military and its veterans.
“All we are asking for is a commonsense, clean funding resolution — a continuing resolution — to keep the government open,” Leavitt said. “This is a bill that keeps the government funded at the exact same levels as today, just adjusted for inflation.”
“So there is zero good reason for the Democrats to vote against this,” she added. “The president is giving Democrat leadership one last chance to be reasonable.”
But Jeffries dismissed Leavitt as “divorced from reality” in a podcast interview.
“In what world will any rational American conclude, after we’ve been lectured throughout the year about this so-called mandate that the Republican Party has in this country, and their complete control of government in Washington, that because Democrats are unwilling to gut the healthcare of the American people as part of the Republican healthcare crisis, that it’s us shutting the government down?” Jeffries said.
“Nobody’s buying that,” he continued, “outside of the parts of the MAGA base who basically, seemingly, will buy anything that Donald Trump has to peddle.”
Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) said he would call a vote on funding the government Tuesday afternoon.
“This is purely and simply hostage-taking,” Thune said Monday. Whether it passes or fails, he said, is “up to the Democrats.”
As the federal government inches closer to a shutdown, the D.C. region faces a uniquely precarious moment, and it’s a moment that economic experts said is unlike any previous shutdown.
As the federal government inches closer to another shutdown, the D.C. region is in a precarious position — a point that economic experts said is unlike any previous shutdown.
“I don’t think we’ve seen anything like this before. So no, this is in many respects unprecedented. We’re charting new territories,” said Terry Clower, director of the Center for Regional Analysis at George Mason University.
Clower pointed to a troubling convergence of factors: 18,000 federal jobs lost this year, a decline of 8,500 jobs in professional and business services and a sluggish tourism sector. These stressors, he said, make the region especially vulnerable.
“All of these things make this to where the impact of the shutdown will be felt more severely,” he said.
While federal employees typically receive back pay after shutdowns, contractors and service workers often do not. Many are still recovering from earlier rounds of government cutbacks.
“If they’re in survival mode now, it’s going to make surviving even harder because they may not have those cash reserves,” Clower said.
What makes this shutdown different, Clower added, is the uncertainty stemming from messaging by the Office of Budget Management, which he said is suggesting the shutdown could be used as a pretext for mass firings.
“It makes it just a lot more uncertain about how long it would last, and what the net impacts would be on the federal workforce.”
If layoffs do occur, they could further strain the job market. For those workers let go, finding another job won’t be easy and retraining programs often only kick in after formal unemployment, leaving many in limbo.
“It’s not just like you can stop being an administrator in the federal government and just go find a job that’s equivalent in the private sector,” Clower said.
The shutdown could also impact community organizations and nonprofits. Clower warned it may push more residents into financial stress and food insecurity, with already limited resources available to help.
“This is going to put some more people into financial stress … and how do we respond to the need? Because, again, we don’t know exactly how it’s going to play out,” he said.
As Congress remains gridlocked, Clower said the region is bracing for impact while still hoping for a swift resolution.
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FIRST ON FOX: The partisan messaging war over a looming government shutdown is heating up with a new memo sent to House Republicans by Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La.
In a memo titled, “Debunking the Democrats’ Shutdown Delusion,” sent to House GOP offices on Monday, obtained by Fox News Digital, Johnson is urging fellow House Republicans to keep the heat on Democrats in the government funding fight by arguing against their most often-used points in the ongoing battle.
“Republicans have acted responsibly by advancing a clean, nonpartisan 24-page continuing resolution that keeps funding at current levels through November 21 with no partisan policy riders. It averts a government shutdown and ensures essential services and benefits continue uninterrupted for the American people,” the memo said.
“Meanwhile, Democrats are doubling down on false narratives as the threat of a Democrat-led government shutdown looms. Democrats — who once claimed that shutdowns would be ‘dangerous,’ ‘disastrous,’ and ‘self-inflicted harm’ to seniors, veterans, servicemembers, families, and the economy — are now actively trying to force one over policies completely unrelated to government funding.”
Democrats led by House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries are in a messaging war with Speaker Mike Johnson and House Republicans as a possible government shutdown looms.(Getty Images)
The memo first quoted Democrats’ attack that Republicans are working to end healthcare for millions of Americans, urging GOP lawmakers to fight back with “the current funding bill is a simple short-term funding extension with no policy changes and healthcare programs are fully funded at the current levels.”
“Democrats want to hold September government funding hostage over an unrelated December policy fight of their own making. Policy debates can happen separately, and Democrats don’t need to shut down the government to do it,” the memo said.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., and other Democrats are pushing for any government funding bill to include an extension of COVID-19 pandemic-era Obamacare subsidies that are set to expire at the end of 2025.
Democrats also released their own alternative funding bill that would have repealed Medicaid reforms in President Donald Trump’s big, beautiful bill – all points which Republicans have panned as nonstarters.
President Donald Trump speaks to reporters as he leaves the White House in Washington on Sept. 7, 2025. (Jose Luis Magana/AP Photo)
Republican leaders have signaled openness to discussing Obamacare extensions but have argued against including them in a seven-week short-term funding bill.
The memo also urges GOP lawmakers to criticize Democrats’ proposal, saying it gives “free healthcare for illegal aliens,” “$500 million in taxpayer funding to prop up liberal news outlets,” “a $50 billion cut in investments for improving rural health care,” and “billions in funding for DEI and climate projects in foreign countries.”
On Democratic accusations that Republicans are using federal workers as “pawns” in a government shutdown battle, the memo said, “If Democrats choose to force a shutdown, the Trump administration must be ready to responsibly manage the situation, including making tough personnel decisions to prioritize operations.”
“But this disruption is entirely avoidable should Democrats support the responsible solution is on the table. If Democrats reject it, they alone will bear the blame for using federal workers as pawns in their political games,” it said.
The memo also encouraged Republicans to point out that their short-term funding bill passed the House earlier this month with nearly entirely GOP votes, and that Democrats in the Senate were responsible for scuttling it earlier this month.
It comes after Johnson urged House Republicans on a conference call earlier to stay united on federal funding, arguing Democrats had “no credible argument” in the fight.
Senate Republicans are expected to put the bill on the floor again sometime this week. If it fails to pass by midnight on Oct. 1, however, a partial government shutdown is all but certain.
Elizabeth Elkind is a politics reporter for Fox News Digital leading coverage of the House of Representatives. Previous digital bylines seen at Daily Mail and CBS News.
Follow on Twitter at @liz_elkind and send tips to elizabeth.elkind@fox.com
(Reuters) -Wall Street indexes closed up on Monday with the Nasdaq leading gains as investors bought heavyweight technology stocks and shrugged off the uncertainty of a potential U.S. government shutdown and hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials.
Technology provided the benchmark S&P’s biggest boost as investors bet on growth from artificial intelligence and expectations that the Fed will keep cutting interest rates as it grapples with persistent inflation concerns and labor market uncertainties.
A major focus for Wall Street this week is a standoff between Republicans and Democrats over funding that has raised the prospect of a government shutdown beginning Wednesday, the first day of the U.S. government’s new fiscal year.
Even as the Labor Department prepared for a potential delay of its September jobs report in the event of a shutdown, this did not seem to be the key market driver, said Lindsey Bell, chief strategist at 248 Ventures in Charlotte, North Carolina.
“Investors are clinging to the positives,” Bell said, pointing to rate easing hopes and signs of economic resilience from recent releases including housing market and consumer spending data.
“The market is not going to shoot to the moon, because this is a risk. But investors can look through the potential for a shutdown, because if it does occur it will likely be resolved quickly and the market can resume focusing on the things that do matter, like earnings, monetary policy and AI investments.”
While shutdowns have not tended to impact corporate results historically, the imminent threat may have limited gains and kept trading volume light on Monday, according to Burns McKinney, portfolio manager and NFJ Investment Group in Dallas, Texas.
“The only reason it would truly move markets is if it affects the bottom line. Historically speaking, government shutdowns are brief and they don’t have an impact on profitability so investors tend to be forward-looking,” said McKinney.
“It’s just like smoke on a racetrack. They just keep the wheels straight, manage through the stress and move forward through the smoke.”
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 68.78 points, or 0.15%, to 46,316.07, the S&P 500 gained 17.51 points, or 0.26%, to 6,661.21 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 107.09 points, or 0.48%, to 22,591.15.
Investors were also monitoring Fed policymakers’ commentary for any signs of concern over the potential loss of economic visibility should a shutdown materialize.
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, among the most hawkish Fed officials and not a voter on policy this year, said on Monday the central bank needed to maintain restrictive monetary policy to cool inflation.
St. Louis Federal Reserve President Alberto Musalem, a voter on rates this year, said he was open to further interest rate cuts but that the Fed must be cautious and keep rates high enough to continue to lean against inflation, which remains roughly a percentage point above the central bank’s 2% target.
Traders, however, are pricing in a roughly 89% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the next Fed meeting, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
Among the S&P 500’s 11 major industry sectors, nine advanced. With oil prices falling more than 3%, the energy sector was the biggest laggard, ending down 1.9%. Consumer discretionary was the biggest percentage gainer, adding 0.6%.
But for index point boosts, technology was the clear leader with big pushes from AI chip leader Nvidia, up 2%, and Microsoft, which added 0.6%.
Electronic Arts shares rallied 4.5% after the game publisher agreed to be taken private in a $55 billion deal, fueling hopes for broader deal prospects, said Bell of 248 Ventures, who saw the transaction as “confirmation that the M&A market is open.”
Lam Research shares advanced 2% after Deutsche Bank upgraded the rating on the chip-making equipment firm to “buy” from “hold.”
AppLovin set a fresh record high before closing up 6.3% at $712.36, also providing one of the biggest lifts for the S&P 500. Morgan Stanley raised the target price on the stock to $750 from $480.
After U.S. President Donald Trump shared a video on Sunday promoting the health benefits of hemp-derived cannabidiol, U.S.-listed shares of cannabis-related companies rose. Canopy Growth rallied 17% to $1.57 while Cronos Group rose almost 13% to $2.97 and Tilray Brands jumped 60.9% to $1.85.
Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 1.38-to-1 ratio on the NYSE where there were 337 new highs and 80 new lows. The S&P 500 posted 38 new 52-week highs and six new lows while the Nasdaq Composite recorded 116 new highs and 74 new lows.
On the Nasdaq, 2,525 stocks rose and 2,118 fell as advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 1.19-to-1 ratio.
On U.S. exchanges about 17.91 billion shares changed hands compared with the 18.25 billion average from the last 20 sessions.
(Reporting by Sinéad Carew in New York, Niket Nishant and Sukriti Gupta in Bengaluru; Editing by Sriraj Kalluvila, Shilpi Majumdar and Richard Chang)
Even if a U.S. government shutdown begins on Oct. 1, the 74 million Americans who collect Social Security will continue receiving their monthly checks, although some services could be disrupted due to a potential halt in federal activities, according to experts.
Social Security benefits are covered by mandatory spending, which means that the funding for the program has already been approved by Congress without an expiration date. As a result, Social Security recipients including retirees, disabled Americans and the dependents of deceased workers wouldn’t see an interruption in their monthly payments if the government shuts down.
However, other Social Security services could be impacted by a shutdown, according to the National Committee to Preserve Social Security & Medicare. The Social Security Administration’s working budget requires approval from Congress, with lawmakers currently at loggerheads over funding the federal government past Sept. 30.
If an agreement isn’t reached before then, some Social Security services could be temporarily halted until the issue is resolved, according to both the Social Security Administration and experts on the retirement program.
“The system hasn’t missed a payment in its entire 90-year history and won’t start now,” Max Richtman, CEO of the National Committee to Preserve Social Security & Medicare said in an email. “But customer service at the Social Security Administration (SSA) may be disrupted, including benefit verifications, earnings record corrections and updates, overpayments processing, and replacing Medicare cards.”
In preparation for past shutdowns, each federal agency has created a contingency plan for their operations, with some employees expected to work without pay because they’re considered to be providing essential services.
In an email to CBS News, the SSA said beneficiaries would continue to receive payments even if the government closes.
“In the event of a lapse in appropriation, SSA will follow the contingency plan for continued activities, and Social Security beneficiaries would continue receiving their Social Security, Social Security Disability Insurance, and SSI payments,” an agency spokesperson said.
When is the next Social Security payment?
Social Security payments would continue to go out as usual during a shutdown, with recipients of Supplemental Security Income — a program for low-income and disabled people — scheduled to receive their next checks on Oct. 1.
Social Security recipients will receive their checks on their usual schedule, which is based on their birth date. Those born between the 1st to 10th of their birth month will receive payment on Oct. 8, while those born between the 11th to 20th days will receive their payment on Oct. 15. People born between the 21st and the last day of their birth month will get their check on Oct. 22.
“If you’re a Social Security recipient, you’re going to get your check, and that’s obviously a good thing,” Wayne Winegarden, a senior fellow in business and economics at the Pacific Research Institute, a think tank focused on free trade, told CBS News.
Which Social Security services could be impacted?
That would depend on how many SSA employees are deemed to be essential, according to the National Committee to Preserve Social Security & Medicare.
In a Sept. 24 contingency plan published by the SSA, the agency said about 45,000 employees — almost 90% of its workforce — would stay on the job in case of a shutdown. Another roughly 6,200 workers would be furloughed, according to the planning document.
“We will continue activities critical to our direct-service operations and those needed to ensure accurate and timely payment of benefits,” the plan states. “We will cease activities not directly related to the accurate and timely payment of benefits or not critical to our direct-service operations.”
According to the new plan, the following are services that would be halted during a shutdown:
Benefit verifications
Earnings record corrections and updates unrelated to the adjudication of benefits
Payee accountings
Prisoner activities — suspension
Requests from third parties for queries
Freedom of Information Act requests
IT enhancement activities, public relations and training
Aimee Picchi is the associate managing editor for CBS MoneyWatch, where she covers business and personal finance. She previously worked at Bloomberg News and has written for national news outlets including USA Today and Consumer Reports.
Russell Vought is probably looking forward to Wednesday. Photo-Illustration: Intelligencer; Photo: Getty Images
Democrats and Republicans must agree on a temporary spending bill by the end of Tuesday to avoid a government shutdown. And as of Monday morning, a shutdown — of undetermined duration — looks more likely than not. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries appear determined to play hardball, as restive Democratic voters demand their leaders take a more aggressive posture against an administration they loathe — and which has steamrolled Congress on spending. Democrats are demanding an extension of Obamacare subsidies in exchange for the Senate votes necessary to meet the 60-vote threshold and keep the government open. (The two Democratic leaders are meeting with their Republican counterparts and President Donald Trump on Monday, slightly raising the odds of a last-minute deal.)
The party demanding concessions usually takes the blame for a shutdown and its attendant downsides. But this time around, there’s another factor for Democrats to keep in mind: the Trump administration’s mission to cripple the administrative state. Russell Vought, the powerful head of the Office of Management and Budget, has threatened to institute mass layoffs in the event of a shutdown, to which Democrats have reacted defiantly. But how realistic is the threat? For clarity on that question and the Trump administration’s efforts to lay waste to government in general, I spoke with Don Kettl, a professor emeritus and former dean at the School of Public Policy at the University of Maryland, who is an expert on the federal bureaucracy.
There was almost a government shutdown back in March. One of the reasons Democrats gave for not going down that path was that the Trump administration could have used such a shutdown to wreak even more chaos on the federal government. This time, Democrats are, as of now, barreling forward and basically saying “Screw you. This is a bluff.” To what extent do you think they’re playing with fire? I think this is not a bluff. It’s entirely possible that the Republicans wouldn’t mind at all taking the short-term hit of whatever blowback there may be from a government shutdown in exchange for gaining more power over both the budget and the personnel system. They’ve been campaigning across the board for the power to be able to fire anybody they want to fire, from Federal Reserve Board members to people working in local social-security offices. There is a large group of people on the right, many of whom work inside the administration, who believe that the president has that power — that all federal employees ultimately are at will, and they think they can trace it back to the time of the founding. So they want to try to establish that policy and use this as a precedent, and then combine that with thepower of impoundment. So I think they would not be very disappointed if it turns out they can blame the Democrats for having triggered the shutdown, then use that shutdown to be able to expand the president’s power into areas where they’ve wanted to move.
What is it about a shutdown that enables them to do so much more than they are already doing in terms of layoffs? I can’t get inside their heads, and this certainly is not what I would recommend to anybody, but it could work something like this: There’s no money appropriated, there’s no continuing resolution, and there’s a shutdown. So then there’s a question of what actually gets shut down. And OMB, as it turns out, is who decides which employees and which functions are essential and which ones are not. Russell Vought has already said that he’s going to tell everybody that the most essential functions are ones that were in the Big Beautiful Bill Act, and the ones that weren’t are not. So they could say, “We’re really sorry, but you’re gone, because you’re doing a nonessential function and there’s no money to pay you.”
And I imagine it will be a challenge to get that overturned, since the Supreme Court has been very much on Trump’s side with this sort of thing. That’s true, but even before you get there, it would be hard for the most liberal justices to argue that OMB needs to be punished because it’s committing to spending money that Congress hasn’t yet appropriated. It would really put the Supreme Court in the middle of a separation-of-powers question of Article One versus Article Two, where it doesn’t really have a role. What’s the court going to do? Say you have to spend money that Congress hasn’t appropriated?
There is a looming Supreme Court case about those very issues: separation of powers and impoundment. The Trump administration is trying to claw back foreign-aid money for AIDS patients that Congress already appropriated. On Friday, the Supreme Court gave permission for the Trump administration to withhold that money for now, but the case itself won’t be resolved for a long time. Is that the only thing holding the Trump administration back from pretty much controlling the power of the federal purse? They don’t have a single thrust against impoundment that they’re using — it’s that they are working on multiple fronts. So the question, at this point, is whether or not they are cleverly trying to trigger a shutdown so they can even more fully expand their power, beyond what I think perhaps maybe even they imagined at the beginning. And that, I think, is a very real possibility.
To step back a bit on the Trump administration’s plans: When we first spoke last December, we were talking about Schedule F, the job classification the Trump administration used to try to fire federal workers at the end of his first term. It seemed like that would be the mechanism they’d use against the federal workforce in the second term. But they went a different way, right? I tell people I’m the biggest sucker that ever lived because I spent four years telling everybody you better watch out for Schedule F. It was going to be a way to try to remake the workforce in the image and likeness of Trumpism. And they just completely suckered me in, because that turned out to be a nothingburger by comparison to everything else.
How so? Schedule F was dropped almost at the very end of the first Trump administration. The idea was to allow the administration to take anybody who was in a policymaking or policy-influencing position in government and put them into a new schedule of the federal workforce, which would remove their civil-service protections and make it possible to dismiss them at will. And that involved how many people? Well, we never got a chance to find out.
The administration comes in this time and says that essentially there was so much flak around Schedule F that we’re now going to call it “Schedule Policy/Career.” Somehow they didn’t check the acronym and ended up with “Schedule PC.” This is an administration that’s really good at messaging, and that’s a message that they didn’t get quite right. But with Schedule PC, it’s essentially the same thing: It allows them to ultimately dismiss anybody in a policy position. But with Schedule PC, you’ve got to work with people who were already there and move them into a Schedule PC from which they can potentially be dismissed.
Now they’ve rolled out Schedule G, where you can appoint somebody from scratch whose only qualification is the willingness of the president to appoint them — that is, loyalty — and then have the person be dismissed at any point, at any time for any reason. So it creates a potentially unlimited number of political appointees who were intended to last through the administration and then be dismissible at the end. For the defenders of Schedule F at the end of the last administration who said “you have to understand, this is not an effort to try to reassert the spoils system — well, schedule PC might not have been, but Schedule G sure is. And what it is a way to essentially appoint as many people as you want into these positions without regard to any qualification except loyalty and to dismiss them at will.
What we don’t know is how many people were put in Schedule PC and how many people were appointed in Schedule G. We don’t know how many people have been dismissed, how many people were RIFed, how many people took the buyout. We just don’t know anything really about any of that stuff at this point. The administration has let a few numbers out, but we have no idea what the overall piece looks like. So we’ve got this advantage of operating behind a smokescreen.
They’ve been very clever in their approach to all of this. Yeah. They have developed and used techniques and tools that I don’t think I had seen even discussed or breathed of up to this point.
And yet there’s still a large percentage of federal workers still in place. It’s not like the Trump administration has come close to replacing every single person in the workforce and made them pledge loyalty to Trump, right? No, they certainly haven’t fired everybody and they haven’t tried to, but they have terrified everybody for sure. And that, I think, is something that is at least as important to them, as a way to try to bring employees to heel. At this point, nobody really knows for sure how stable their job might be. So they’ve succeeded through a whole collection of strategies and tactics to do more, both to clean house where they wanted to clean house up to a point, and then to put everybody on notice. Because at this point, it’s hard to know what it might be that would stop them.
In our last conversation, you said that when it came to dismantling the federal bureaucracy, it was going to be a fight between the Elon Musk way of doing things and the Russell Vought way of doing things. DOGE is still operating in some form, but Musk flamed out of government. So now we’re certainly firmly in the Vought era, and it’s probably not going away anytime soon, right? You never say anything is forever with Trump, but he is one of the truly indispensable people in the administration because he has a big, large ring of keys that open up any door where the administration would want to go. And it’s impossible to overstate how invaluable that is. You just can’t get anything done. If you want to do a shutdown, if you want to figure out what legal authorities you can use to be able to do that, if you want to know which line or which appropriations covers what, it takes a long time to accumulate that kind of knowledge. He’s got it. And there’s nobody else in the foreground who does.
Would they do DOGE again if they had a chance? I think the answer is mixed. On the one hand, I think just about everybody would say that DOGE done as it was was a mistake in so many ways. But on the other hand, it had two advantages. One is that it threw so much into the air that it provided an opportunity through the chaos, and we know one of Trump’s favorite political strategies is generating chaos so that he can just then find the way through that he finds the most useful. The other is that Vought comes on looking like a staid, button-down firebrand by comparison. So it allows him a lot more room to do what he’s doing in ways he might have had a hard time with if it weren’t for DOGE.
Let’s say the Trump administration ends up losing the impoundment case at the Supreme Court — which it seems to have a good chance of winning — or the big Lisa Cook Federal Reserve case, or some of the other cases working their way through the courts. How much could any of that slow them down? You can drive down the highway at 90 miles an hour and maybe one or two parts of the car fall off, but you can keep the rest of the car going. And you can lose a fair number of these cases and still create enough forward momentum to be able to keep things going. They’re really in a powerful, powerful position because the administration is taking big, bold steps and the courts, by their very nature, take small, relatively incremental steps. So the administration’s always going to outrun the courts.
Yeah, that’s been a dynamic from day one of this administration. By the time courts even consider what the administration has done, it’s too late to stop a lot of it. Exactly. Or even if they stop one piece of it, the other 90 percent of what was wrapped around it is continuing.
This interview has been edited for length and clarity.
Donald Trump has reversed course and is purportedly planning to host a bipartisan gathering of the top four US congressional leaders at the White House on Monday afternoon in a last-ditch effort to avoid a looming government shutdown, the House speaker and the US president’s fellow Republican Mike Johnson said on Sunday.
The president accused the pair of making “unserious and ridiculous demands” in return for Democratic votes to support a Republican funding agreement to keep the government open beyond Tuesday night – but left the door open for a meeting “if they get serious about the future of our nation”.
Johnson, appearing on CNN, said he spoke with Trump at length on Saturday, and that the two Democrats had agreed to join him and John Thune, the Republican Senate majority leader, for an Oval Office discussion Monday.
He did not say if Trump would be negotiating directly with the Democrats – but portrayed Trump as keen to “try to convince them to follow common sense and do what’s right by the American people”.
Schumer, talking to NBC’s Meet the Press, said he was “hopeful we can get something real done” – but was uncertain of the mood they would find Trump in when they sat down for the 2pm ET discourse.
“If the president at this meeting is going to rant, and just yell at Democrats, and talk about all his alleged grievances, and say this, that, and the other thing, we won’t get anything done,” Schumer said.
“We don’t want a shutdown. We hope that they sit down and have a serious negotiation with us.”
According to CBS News on Sunday, meanwhile, Trump is not hopeful the meeting will lead to an agreement.
The network’s chief national correspondent, Robert Costa, told Face the Nation he spoke with Trump by phone Sunday morning and that a government shutdown “looks likely at this point based on my conversation … He says both sides are at a stalemate.”
Costa said: “Inside the White House, sources are saying president Trump actually welcomes a shutdown in the sense that he believes he can wield executive power to get rid of what he calls waste, fraud and abuse.”
If no deal is reached, chunks of the federal government are set to shut down as early as Wednesday morning, with the White House telling agencies to prepare to furlough or fire scores of workers.
Republican and Democratic leaders have been pointing fingers of blame at each other for days as Tuesday’s deadline for a funding agreement approaches.
The narrow House Republican majority passed a short-term spending bill known as a continuing resolution earlier in September that would keep the government funded for seven weeks – but it faces opposition in the Senate, where it needs the support of at least eight Democrats to pass.
Democrats have made the extension of expiring healthcare protections a condition of their support, warning that planned Republican spending cuts would affect millions of people.
“If we don’t extend the Affordable Care Act tax credits, more than 20 million Americans are going to experience dramatically increased premiums, copays, deductibles, in an environment where the cost of living in America is already too high,” Jeffries told CNN on Sunday.
“We’ve made clear that we’re ready, willing and able to sit down with anyone, at any time and at any place, in order to make sure that we can actually fund the government, avoid a painful Republican caused shutdown, and address the healthcare crisis that Republicans have caused that’s [affecting] everyday Americans.”
But Trump and Republicans have repeatedly accused their political opponents of exploiting the issue to force a shutdown while there was still plenty of time to fix healthcare before the subsidies expire on 31 December.
“The Obamacare subsidies is a policy debate that has to be determined by the end of the year, not right now, while we’re simply trying to keep the government open so we can have all these debates,” Johnson said.
“There is nothing partisan about this continuing resolution, nothing. We didn’t add a single partisan priority or policy rider at all. We’re operating completely in good faith to get more time.”
Thune, on Meet the Press, also attempted to blame Democrats for the potential shutdown and said “the ball is in their court” as to the next development.
“There is a bill sitting at the desk in the Senate right now, we could pick it up today and pass it, that has been passed by the House that will be signed into law by the president to keep the government open,” he said.
“What the Democrats have done is take the federal government as a hostage, and by extension the American people, to try [to] get a whole laundry list of things that they want.”
But US senator Chris Van Hollen, a Maryland Democrat who has previously urged his party leadership to be stronger in standing up to the Trump administration, said the problem was Republicans handing “a complete blank check” to the president to spend money on his own political interests, and not those of the nation.
“Until now the president has said he’d rather shut down the government than prevent those healthcare costs from spiking,” he told CNN.
“Democrats are united right now on this question. I’m glad we’re finally talking. We’ll see what happens.”
President Trump will meet with congressional leaders on Monday, just ahead of an Oct. 1 deadline for lawmakers to reach an agreement on a spending bill that would avert a government shutdown, multiple sources familiar with the plans told CBS News Saturday.
Mr. Trump will meet with Senate Majority Leader John Thune, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, House Speaker Mike Johnson and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, the sources said.
Earlier this week, Mr. Trump said that he had canceled a meeting with Schumer and Jeffries, calling their “demands” for the spending bill “unserious and ridiculous.”
In a joint statement Saturday, Schumer and Jeffries said that Mr. Trump had “once again agreed to a meeting in the Oval Office,” and adding that they were “resolute in our determination to avoid a government shutdown.”
With the deadline fast approaching, Schumer called Thune on Friday and urged him to get Mr. Trump to meet, an aide to Schumer told CBS News.
Punchbowl was first to report the meeting.
Lawmakers are facing a deadline of midnight Tuesday, when the 2026 fiscal year begins, to reach a deal on full-year spending bill, or a continuing resolution, which is a temporary stop-gap measure.
Last week, a Republican-backed short-term funding bill passed the House, but failed in the Senate.
Democrats have pushed for the bill to include a permanent extension of tax credits for Americans who are enrolled in health insurance through the Affordable Care Act, as well as a roll back of Medicaid cuts that were in the recently passed “big, beautiful bill.”
If a shutdown were to take effect, it would impact what are considered non-essential government programs, and it would also likely halt the pay of hundreds of thousands of federal workers.
In a move that appeared to raise the stakes for a deal, the White House’s Office of Management and Budget sent a memo to federal agencies Wednesday telling them to prepare layoff plans in the event of a shutdown.
The memo, obtained by CBS News, told agencies to consider reduction-in-force notices — a federal term for layoffs — for employees in programs that receive discretionary funding that stops on Oct. 1, or that don’t have any alternative sources of funding.
“Programs that did not benefit from an infusion of mandatory appropriations will bear the brunt of a shutdown, and we must continue our planning efforts in the event Democrats decide to shut down the government,” the memo read.
Democratic leaders blasted the memo, with Schumer calling it “an attempt at intimidation.”
EXCLUSIVE: As the Sept. 30 government funding deadline looms, the Trump administration is warning that millions of Americans could lose flood insurance coverage if Democrats refuse to back a House-passed spending bill that also extends the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP).
The White House supports the continuing resolution (CR) approved by House Republicans, which would avert a shutdown and reauthorize the NFIP.
Administration officials said they worked to ensure NFIP was part of the current funding package, reflecting what they call the urgency of protecting millions of policyholders during hurricane season.
Democrats have said they will not support the measure, citing broader spending disputes. Trump administration officials argue the standoff puts homeowners, the housing market and disaster recovery funds at risk just as peak storm season arrives.
Sen. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., speaks during a news conference on Capitol Hill as Congress faces a funding deadline and flood insurance risks.(Daniel Heuer/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
“In an exclusive statement to Fox News Digital, a White House official said: ‘The NFIP is a vital program utilized by millions of Americans, and it’s not a hard call to extend it – which is exactly why the administration supports the House-passed CR that would do so. Unfortunately, Democrats are happy to shut down the government and hurt the many thousands of Americans who rely on this program in the process.’”
According to administration figures reviewed by Fox News Digital, a lapse in NFIP authorization could disrupt about 1,300 property sales every day. That’s roughly 40,000 closings in a single month, all in areas where flood insurance is required to secure a mortgage.
More than 400,000 policies are set to expire in October. Officials say about 152,000 of those have been prepaid, but more than 250,000 households could still lose coverage if the program stalls.
White House officials warn of flood insurance lapses if Democrats block a spending bill.(Getty Images)
Administration officials also pointed to October 2024 as a warning sign. That month saw more than 427,000 new or renewed policies. Roughly 41,000 homeowners bought new policies while about 33,000 dropped coverage, leaving a net gain of nearly 9,000. Officials warn that similar growth this year could collapse if NFIP lapses.
Administration officials told Fox News Digital that FEMA currently has $2.6 billion available to pay valid claims, including $1.5 billion in the National Flood Insurance Fund and $1.1 billion in reserves. But they warned the agency would be unable to borrow additional money from the Treasury if a major disaster exceeded those reserves, a scenario they described as “dangerous and avoidable.”
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) echoed those concerns.
“Past disruptions of the NFIP have caused immediate and widespread negative impacts on property sales, home values and consumer confidence,” NAHB said in an exclusive statement to Fox News Digital.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries speaks during a news conference on Capitol Hill in Washington.(Nathan Posner/Anadolu/Getty Images)
“Home sales would cease in areas where flood insurance is mandatory in order to obtain a mortgage. What the housing market needs now is stability and certainty. NAHB calls upon the House to act quickly to continue to fund the operations of the federal government including the extension of the NFIP.”
The NFIP has a long history of stopgap extensions. Since 2017, Congress has reauthorized the program more than 30 times, often through short-term measures. Lawmakers have typically made coverage retroactive to prevent permanent gaps, but even brief lapses have stalled real estate closings and left homeowners in limbo. The program currently serves about 4.5 million policyholders nationwide.
Unless lawmakers strike a deal, FEMA will be barred from selling or renewing flood insurance policies starting Oct. 1, a lapse that could leave millions of homeowners in limbo as Washington hurtles toward a shutdown. Administration officials argue the risk is especially acute this year as hurricane season continues.
FEMA, Schumer and Jeffries did not immediately respond to Fox News Digital’s request for comment.
Jasmine Baehr is a Breaking News Writer for Fox News Digital, where she covers politics, the military, faith and culture.
The federal government seems poised to shut down next week unless congressional leaders can reach a deal. One of the major sticking points is the fight over renewing enhanced tax credits to offset healthcare coverage costs under the Affordable Care Act. Cynthia Cox, a vice president at KFF, joins to discuss the potential ripple effects.
A last-minute compromise to avoid a government shutdown doesn’t look probable as the deadline approaches. Federal News Network Federal Drive host Terry Gerton has tips on what federal workers could be doing.
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How should federal employees prepare for a potential government shutdown?
A last-minute compromise to avoid a government shutdown doesn’t look probable as the deadline approaches. Federal News Network “Federal Drive” host Terry Gerton has tips on what federal workers could be doing.
As of Friday afternoon, Congress has four days to agree on a stopgap bill that would avoid leaving thousands of federal employees without pay or without a job entirely.
The first thing Gerton recommended federal employees do is address if you have rent or loans that will have payments due during the potential shutdown.
“Talk to creditors, landlords, those kinds of things, to let them know that this may be coming up, and see if they can negotiate or are covered by some extenuating period of time when they may be able to make reduced payments or may be able to delay those payments,” Gerton said.
In the event of a shutdown, this time around would be different for one group in particular — those who opted into the deferred resignation and retirement program, whose last day on the federal payroll is Sept. 30.
“They may not have had their paperwork processed,” she said. “They may not have their retirement package submitted, and it’s not clear whether on Oct. 1, if we’re in a shutdown, agency/HR folks are going to be around and able to process those retirements.”
The good thing is federal workers receive back pay following a shutdown.
In 2019, Congress passed a law ensuring federal employees, regardless of their status during the shutdown and who are actively on the federal rolls, would be entitled to back pay for the duration of the shutdown.
While they will eventually get paid, the furloughed workers as well as those who remain on the job may have to go without one or more of their regular paychecks, depending upon how long the shutdown lasts, which will create financial stress for many families.
“That helps a little bit in that, at the end of the shutdown, you’re going to get a check that covers their back pay,” Gerton said.
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A government shutdown could begin within days, halting pay for hundreds of thousands of federal workers and delaying services, as lawmakers remain deadlocked over funding past Sept. 30.
The financial impact of a shutdown typically depends on the length of the disruption, with each week costing the U.S. economy about $7 billion, according to a new analysis from EY-Parthenon Chief Economist Gregory Daco. A suspension could also weigh on investor and consumer confidence at a time when the U.S. economy is already facing headwinds, he told CBS News.
Government shutdowns aren’t new: The U.S. has experienced 14 of them since 1980, with the longest occurring over 34 days from December 2018 into January 2019, according to the Bipartisan Policy Center. They’re triggered when Congress fails to pass a full-year spending bill or a continuing resolution to fund the government for the pending fiscal year, which begins on Wednesday. Oct. 1.
“We’ve been to this picnic before, unfortunately,” Wayne Winegarden, a senior fellow in business and economics at Pacific Research Institute, told CBS News. Pacific Research is a think tank that focuses on free trade.
“In general, things like Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, those will continue to go out, and we’ll continue to pay interest on the debt,” Winegarden said.
But, he added, “The general rule is that the longer it goes on, the bigger the disruption.”
What happens if there is a government shutdown?
Without congressional approval for new spending, federal agencies are typically prohibited from doling out money. Activities at many agencies will be suspended until lawmakers agree on a new funding bill, with hundreds of thousands of federal workers likely to be furloughed during that time.
Yet because the government must continue to provide services that protect life and property, agencies will determine which essential workers must continue working, although they won’t receive pay until lawmakers resolve the funding gap.
And while some federal employees would eventually receive back pay, others could experience financial strain while their paychecks are suspended, Daco noted.
During the shutdown of 2018-2019, about 800,000 government workers missed several weeks of pay, creating financial hardships for many. Some turned to online fundraising campaigns for assistance, while others relied on food banks to help them get through the period.
What is the economic impact of a government shutdown?
While the biggest direct hit would be on government workers, followed by federal contractors who would also be shut off from funding, delayed federal procurement on goods and services could also ripple through the broader economy, Daco told CBS News.
A shutdown could also undermine confidence in the economy at a time when some sectors, such as the labor market, are facing headwinds, he added. Markets could be rattled by the disruption, as well as consumer sentiment, some economists noted.
“We need more certainty in the rules of the game of the economy,” Winegarden said. “Uncertainty, at this moment, is the last thing we need.”
A halt in government functions could also complicate monetary policy decisions, potentially resulting in delays for key economic data next month, such as the Oct. 3 jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. With the labor market stalling out over the summer, Federal Reserve officials are expected to closely scrutinize the latest jobs data when they make their next rate decision at the central bank’s Oct. 29 meeting.
“A government shutdown at this economic juncture represent a graver risk than when the economy is running at full steam,” Daco said.
Would Social Security benefits be impacted?
Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid are covered by mandatory spending, which means that funding for these programs has been approved by Congress to continue without an expiration date.
Social Security benefits would be paid on time, while health care payments for seniors in Medicare and low- and middle-income Americans enrolled in Medicaid would continue.
However, Social Security’s administrative budget needs to receive approval from Congress, which means that some of its services could be impacted in a shutdown, some experts note.
“In the event of a government shutdown … customer service at the Social Security Administration may be disrupted, including benefit verifications, earnings record corrections and updates, overpayments processing and replacing Medicare cards,” Max Richtman, CEO of the National Committee to Preserve Social Security & Medicare, said in a Friday email.
Would other federal functions like the TSA be impacted?
Air traffic controllers and Transportation Security Administration agents would be required to work without pay because they provide essential services.
Unlike other government agencies. the U.S. Postal Service operates as a sefl-funded, independent agency. That means mail, packages and other shipments would still be delivered and post offices would remain open in the event of a shutdown.
But there could be other impacts for consumers and businesses. For one, some mortgage processing could face delays because the flood insurance program would be closed to new policies until Congress agrees to a new spending deal, according to TD Cowen analyst Jaret Seiberg.
“That means no mortgages which require federal flood insurance will be originated,” he noted.
In previous shutdowns, other services were also suspended, such as the Food and Drug Administration’s inspections, as well as the entry to the National Parks, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
Aimee Picchi is the associate managing editor for CBS MoneyWatch, where she covers business and personal finance. She previously worked at Bloomberg News and has written for national news outlets including USA Today and Consumer Reports.
The first government shutdown in six and a half years is quickly approaching, and the White House is encouraging federal agencies to reflect during the pause.
In the past, when a government shutdown has occurred, nonessential federal workers have been temporarily furloughed, and essential workers have stayed on the job without pay while Congress resolves funding disputes and then votes to pay the workers back retroactively.
Here’s what we could see from a government shutdown in 2025.
What is the deadline to avoid a government shutdown?
The memo from the Office of Management and Budget (OPM) said agencies should “use this opportunity to consider” reductions in the workforce for programs that are discretionary, have another source of funding or that are “not consistent with the President’s priorities.”
Earlier in September, members of Congress failed to advance any short-term funding extensions before a holiday break. Now, there are fewer than five days before the end of the month, and subsequently the end of the funding budget.
The main issues are about healthcare. Democrats say they will not agree to fund the government unless Republicans deal with rising healthcare costs. This includes reversing the recent cuts to Medicaid and extending the subsidies for Obamacare premiums.
Democrats proposed a temporary funding bill that would have restored money for the Corporation for Public Broadcasting. It also aimed to stop the White House from withholding funds that Congress had approved. However, this bill did not pass in the Senate.
How many federal employees are there in Tennessee?
According to the OPM’s latest data, as of Sept. 2024, there were 32,574 federal employees across all agencies in Tennessee, about 1.5% of all federal employees in the United States.
The largest agency in the state is the Department of Veterans Affairs, which has 13,632 employees. The next largest agency in the state is the Department of the Army with 2,902 employees. In the state of Tennessee, there are six bases and installations in all three major regions.
It is difficult to ascertain the precise count of federal employees because the Trump administration undertook efforts to cut federal jobs and impose a funding freeze through the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). As a result, many employees faced firings, layoffs, and accepted early resignations.
Many of the people fired were still on provisionary status, and some of Trump’s attempts at workforce reduction have been blocked or reversed by lower courts.
What agencies are essential during a government shutdown?
Essential services include the U.S. Postal Service, Medicare and Social Security services, and air traffic control. It should be noted that, despite these industries being essential, their employees will not be paid while the government continues its shutdown.
The federal Medicare and Medicaid health insurance programs are considered mandatory spending, meaning benefits won’t be impacted if the government shuts down. The Social Security Administration is projected to pay out $1.6 trillion to 72 million beneficiaries this year, and these payments will not be disrupted by the shutdown.
Air travel continues during a shutdown because the Federal Aviation Administration’s air traffic control and the Transportation Security Administration are essential services. During the previous shutdown in late 2018, some TSA checkpoints were closed and travelers faced longer lines when agents didn’t report to work, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
How many US government shutdowns have there been?
The federal government has closed down 21 times since 1977, with each shutdown averaging about eight days. The most recent one lasted for 35 days, from December 2018 to January 2019, during Donald Trump‘s first term as president.
(CNN) — A possible federal government shutdown is only days away as congressional lawmakers remain at odds over funding the government beyond September 30.
Although Republicans control Capitol Hill and the White House, they need at least seven Democrats in the Senate to join them to pass a spending package under the chamber’s rules. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, however, is demanding any funding bill contain an extension of the enhanced Affordable Care Act premium subsidies, along with several other items, to get his party’s support. GOP leaders want an extension of funding for seven weeks, with additional money for security for the legislative, executive and judicial branches.
President Donald Trump does not appear interested in working out a compromise. He canceled a meeting this week with Democratic leaders and said Thursday that their demands were “totally unreasonable.”
If the impasse is not resolved, the coming government shutdown could be unlike any other in recent memory. While no two shutdowns are exactly the same, Trump and the White House Office of Management and Budget have already signaled that they are willing to use a totally different playbook — urging agencies to downsize workers in programs whose funding has lapsed and which don’t align with Trump’s priorities.
Trump is no stranger to government shutdowns. The most recent one occurred during his first term, starting in late December 2018 and lasting 35 days, the longest on record.
Here’s what we know about the looming government shutdown:
What is a government shutdown?
Congress must provide funding for many federal departments and functions every fiscal year, which begins on October 1. If lawmakers fail to pass a spending package for the full year or extend funding for a shorter period, known as a continuing resolution, then many agencies and activities must shutter until Congress appropriates more money.
Lawmakers have yet to pass through both chambers any of the 12 appropriations bills that make up the federal discretionary spending budget. So the coming shutdown would be considered a full shutdown.
During prior impasses, Congress approved annual funding for certain agencies, which allowed them to continue operating while other federal departments went dark. That situation is known as a partial shutdown.
Since 1980, there have been 14 government shutdowns, according to the Bipartisan Policy Center.
What is the shutdown deadline?
The shutdown will begin on October 1, first thing Wednesday morning, if Congress doesn’t act before that.
What programs and payments will stop?
Every government shutdown differs somewhat, but typically functions that are critical to the protection of lives and property are deemed essential and remain open. Agencies file what are known as contingency plans that detail what operations will continue and how many employees will remain on the job, many of them without pay.
However, in an unusual move, OMB this time is not posting agencies’ shutdown contingency plans on its website. Instead, the plans are hosted only on each agency’s site — making it harder to assess how the Trump administration will handle the shutdown and which activities it will deem essential. (OMB noted in a memo earlier this week that it had not yet received updated contingency plans from every agency.)
Previous shutdowns have stalled food inspections; canceled immigration hearings; and delayed some federal lending to homebuyers and small businesses, among other impacts.
In the most recent shutdown, students had trouble getting needed tax documents from the Internal Revenue Service to get financial aid for the spring semester, and the US Department of Agriculture warned that it could only guarantee to provide food stamp benefits through February.
Notably, important benefit programs, such as Social Security and Medicare, will continue. Also, key services — including law enforcement and border patrol — are typically deemed essential and aren’t affected.
Some government functions can continue – at least for a certain period of time – if they are funded through fees or other types of appropriations. For instance, when a shutdown loomed in the fall of 2023, the Internal Revenue Service said it could use some of the funding it received from the Inflation Reduction Act to keep preparing for the upcoming filing season – updating tax forms and technology systems and hiring and training staff.
If the government shuts down next month, it’s possible that immigration, border patrol and defense activities funded through the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which Trump signed into law in July, would continue. The relevant agencies’ contingency plans should specify what functions would remain operational.
Agencies and administrations have some amount of choice in which services they deem essential, said Molly Reynolds, interim director of the governance studies program at the Brookings Institution.
In Trump’s first term, Reynolds noted that the administration took some measures to make the shutdown less painful, such as allowing the IRS to process tax refunds — a departure from prior shutdowns.
But that may not be the case this year.
“The OMB memo threatening wide-scale federal layoffs if there is a shutdown suggests that this time around, they might be looking to make the shutdown more painful,” she said.
Will national parks stay open?
The impact of shutdowns on the 400-plus national park sites has differed greatly in recent shutdowns.
In 2013, an estimated 8 million recreation visits and $414 million were lost during the 16-day shutdown, according to the National Parks Conservation Association, citing National Park Service data. During the most recent shutdown in 2019, many parks remained open though no visitor services were provided. The Park Service lost $400,000 a day from missed entrance fee revenue, according to the association’s estimates. What’s more, park visitors would have typically spent $20 million on an average January day in nearby communities.
States have also stepped in to keep some national parks open using their own funds. When a shutdown loomed in the fall of 2023, Utah said it would keep the Mighty 5 parks – Arches, Bryce Canyon, Canyonlands, Capitol Reef and Zion – open, while Arizona planned to keep the Grand Canyon operational. Colorado also said it would also keep its four national parks and other federal lands open.
A National Park Service Ranger conducts a walking tour in Shark Valley, part of the Everglades National Park, on April 17 in Florida. Credit: Joe Raedle / Getty Images via CNN Newsource
What’s the impact on airline travel?
Air traffic controllers and Transportation Security Administration officers are typically deemed essential and must remain on the job, though they are not paid. But some workers have called out sick during past shutdowns, snarling flights.
The decision by 10 air traffic controllers to stay home in January 2019 helped end that shutdown. Their absence temporarily shut down travel at New York’s LaGuardia airport and caused delays at other major hubs, including in New Jersey, Philadelphia and Atlanta, driving Trump to agree to a temporary government funding measure.
How about the impact on federal workers?
Federal workers bear the brunt of government shutdowns. Some are furloughed, while others are considered essential and have to continue working. But many don’t get paid until the impasse ends.
In March, the last time a federal government shutdown loomed before being averted, more than 1.4 million employees were deemed essential, according to Rachel Snyderman, managing director of economic policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center. About 750,000 of them would have continued to be paid since their salaries were funded through other sources.
Another nearly 900,000 workers would have been furloughed without pay. (Snyderman noted that the estimates did not include the layoffs and departures that occurred in the early weeks of the Trump administration.)
In 2023, the Biden administration warned that the nation’s 1.3 million active-duty military troops would not get paid, before a shutdown was averted at the last minute.
This week, judiciary officials warned that federal courts could be affected by a shutdown within days, much sooner than in previous occurrences, because of tight budgets. While judges and Supreme Court justices would continue to be paid, many other judicial employees would not.
Federal workers are guaranteed to receive their back pay after the impasse is resolved. However, the same is not true for federal contractors who may be furloughed or temporarily laid off by their employers during a shutdown.
What does a shutdown do to the economy?
Shutdowns can have real consequences for the economy since federal spending is delayed, and many federal workers pull back on their purchases while they aren’t receiving paychecks.
The five-week shutdown in 2018-2019 resulted in a $3 billion loss in economic growth that would not be recovered, according to a Congressional Budget Office estimate. It noted that some private sector businesses would never make up their lost income.
Also, because the IRS reduced its compliance activities during the shutdown, CBO estimated that tax revenues would be roughly $2 billion lower — much of which would not be recouped.
The impact stretches beyond the federal government.
The US Travel Association wrote a letter to congressional leaders in late September urging them to avoid a shutdown, which it said would result in flight delays, longer airport security lines and canceled trips.
“A shutdown is a wholly preventable blow to America’s travel economy — costing $1 billion every week — and affecting millions of travelers and businesses while placing unnecessary strain on an already overextended federal travel workforce,” wrote Geoff Freeman, the association’s CEO. “The consequences of inaction and immediate and severe.”
Rep. James Walkinshaw, whose Virginia district is home to residents who are part of the federal workforce, talked with WTOP anchor Nick Iannelli Thursday and shared what he said everyone in Congress should be doing.
Newly elected Virginia Rep. James Walkinshaw says that President Donald Trump’s administration’s threat of mass firing was an “amateurish attempt to negotiate” amid a looming government shutdown.
Walkinshaw, a Democrat whose Virginia district is home to many residents who are part of the federal workforce, talked with WTOP anchor Nick Iannelli on Thursday and shared what he said everyone in Congress should be doing.
Listen to the interview below.
Walkinshaw says everyone in Congress should be doing this to reach funding agreement
The transcript below has been lightly edited for clarity.
Nick Iannelli:
I feel like Democratic lawmakers in Virginia are in a uniquely difficult spot because of the nature of the federal workforce and the saturation of the federal workforce, especially in your district.
So where are you at with this right now? What is your mindset?
James Walkinshaw:
Well first, with respect to the threat of mass firing and the memo that came out, I think it’s complete bluster and BS.
The Trump administration has no more legal authority to fire federal workers or implement mass firing of federal workers in a shutdown than they do today, when the government’s open. In a shutdown, federal workers have their civil service protections under the law. In a shutdown, if the administration wants to implement a reduction in force, they have to follow precisely the same rigorous process that they have to follow today.
So if the Trump administration attempts, if there’s a shutdown, to do an inrun around that process, they’ll end up in court, and I’m confident that they’ll lose in court.
Nick Iannelli:
So one question here has been, is this a negotiation tactic or is this a real threat?
And judging by what you just said, it sounds like you are firmly in the category of this is not real. This is the Trump administration trying to negotiate.
James Walkinshaw:
Yeah, and I think it’s an amateurish attempt to try to negotiate. The way to negotiate is to sit down and have a meeting. But President Trump has refused to even meet with Democratic leaders to negotiate a bipartisan agreement to cancel the cuts to health care and keep the government open, but this memo as a negotiating tactic is embarrassing.
Nick Iannelli :
Do you think it’s a gamble to view it as just a negotiating tactic and not a legitimate effort to carry out these mass layoffs?
James Walkinshaw:
No, I don’t think it’s a gamble because the law is very clear. The Trump administration has no additional legal authority to carry out mass firings in a shutdown than they do when the government’s open.
They’ve been conducting firings and trying to conduct firings for nine months now, sometimes legally, many times illegally. They’ve been blocked by the courts in cases where it’s been deemed to be illegal, and if they tried to do that during a shutdown, I think they’d be blocked by the courts as well.
Nick Iannelli :
It is very possible that no matter what the legal situation is, the Trump administration would attempt mass layoffs, because the Trump administration has tested these boundaries throughout this year. So, vulnerable federal employees out there who may or may not receive a RIF notice if the Trump administration works to carry out this threat, what is your message to those federal employees out there? Is your message, ‘Just hang tight. The legal system will go your way eventually?’
James Walkinshaw:
My message is one: I’m doing what everybody in Congress should be doing, and urging a real bipartisan negotiation to resolve the differences that exist and get a bipartisan funding agreement in place to avoid the shutdown.
Second, my message with respect to the threat of mass firings or layoffs and federal workers know this: The Trump administration has been doing this for nine months. They assert that they have the legal authority to shut down federal agencies, to shut down federal offices, to fire federal workers, and they’ve been doing it en masse to the tune of hundreds of thousands of federal workers over the last nine months. A shutdown won’t change that.
I expect that the Trump administration’s efforts to fire federal employees will continue whether the federal government is open or shut down.
Nick Iannelli :
In Congress, what’s the feeling right now when you think about the chances of a government shutdown happening? In your eyes, from your perspective, what are the chances of a government shutdown at this point?
James Walkinshaw :
There was some optimism earlier this week when President Trump agreed to sit down finally and meet with Democratic leaders. I think had that meeting occurred, there would have been a possibility of an agreement or some movement toward an agreement. But when the president went on social media to cancel that bipartisan meeting. I think the odds of a shutdown went way, way up.
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WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The head of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission said on Thursday he had yet to review a call from the White House for mass layoffs at federal agencies during a possible government shutdown but believed the agency was working to meet President Donald Trump‘s priorities.
The remarks came a day after the White House’s Office of Management and Budget released a memo instructing agencies to plan for the permanent elimination of large parts of the federal work force – in particular, those working in unfunded programs deemed not to fit presidential priorities – if Congress allows funding to lapse next week.
“Well, I haven’t actually seen what came out but you know, I think we’ll take a look at it, obviously,” SEC Chairman Paul Atkins told reporters, adding that the multiple functions currently performed by the agency were “in keeping with the president’s priorities.”
“Our first job is to make sure that we can fulfill all of the demands that everyone’s placing on us, frankly.”
Since Trump took office, the SEC has seen sharp but entirely voluntary reductions in staffing, arguing that these should help meet White House calls to shrink the federal work force that elsewhere have seen employees dismissed en masse.
Under Atkins, the SEC has also launched a broad-based mission to support the development of the cryptocurrency sector, which Trump has embraced, reined in enforcement of market players and delayed the effective dates for several regulations adopted by the prior administration.
(Reporting by Douglas Gillison in Washington; Editing by Lincoln Feast.)
A fight between Republicans and Democrats could lead to an Oct. 1 federal government shutdown.
Democrats are trying to leverage the must-pass bill to extend Affordable Care Act subsidies; the Trump administration is tying a shutdown to potential mass federal worker layoffs.
The current battle focuses on expiring subsidies for the Affordable Care Act that Democrats say will hurt the ability of millions of enrollees to afford insurance. Democrats have also said they want to reverse Medicaid cuts that Trump signed into law this summer.
Republicans are seeking a bill to temporarily extend federal spending at current levels without any add-ons.
If the government shuts down, President Donald Trump and his administration — which has already defied norms on executive power — likely will seek to exert more power.
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Trump’s Office of Management and Budget under Russell Vought has moved with more executive authority over spending, which is typically left to Congress. The administration took steps to cancel foreign aid and asserted power to withhold billions of domestic spending.
“I would expect this shutdown to look different than any other shutdown,” said Joshua Sewell, Taxpayers for Common Sense director of research and policy. He said he expects that the Trump team’s actions would be guided by what they believe achieves the most for them politically.
Trump could use a shutdown to dismantle government functions, wrote Max Stier, chief executive of the Partnership for Public Service, a nonprofit focused on improving the federal government.
If lawmakers can’t reach a deal, Stier wrote, Trump and Vought “will have enormous latitude to determine which services, programs, and employees can be sidelined, decisions that could go far beyond what has occurred during past shutdowns.”
Beyond the Antideficiency Act, which says the government cannot spend money or incur debts without Congress’ authority, the shutdown process has historically been guided by traditions, not laws.
In recent pastshutdowns, hundreds of thousands of employees were furloughed, but the shutdowns did not result in mass permanent layoffs or significant reorganizations. Under federal law, federal workers also receive back pay for their time on furlough.
Trump and his congressional allies would be in charge of the government amid a shutdown. What can Trump do on his own?
OMB told agencies to “consider” layoff notices
A sign posted Oct. 1, 2013, on a barricade in front of the Lincoln Memorial in Washington, D.C., tells visitors it’s closed because of a government shutdown. (AP)
The Trump administration has already reduced the workforce by about 200,000, a number that could grow to 300,000 by the end of the year, Stier wrote. The administration gutted some agencies and programs including the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and Voice of America.
OMB provided an email, first published by Politico, that it sent to agency heads that said agencies should consider sending “reduction in force” notices to employees whose programs are “not consistent with the President’s priorities” or lack mandatory funding or another source of funding, such as the tax and spending legislation H.R. 1, which became law in July.
Rachel Greszler, a workforce expert at the conservative Heritage Foundation, said the administration hasn’t mandated layoffs, but directed agencies to “consider” issuing such notices “as a way to let federal employees know which of their jobs could be on the line if Congress reduces their agency’s funding.”
This signals to Democrats that health care funding demands could backfire, she said, potentially causing further reductions in the size of the federal government.
Several questions remain, including how many employees could face layoffs and when. The memo says once fiscal year 2026 appropriations are enacted, agencies should revise their plans to reduce staff.
“I believe this memo indicates OMB will pursue a dual path of shutdown-related furloughs and a separate process of mass layoffs,” Sewell said. Whether the layoffs happen before or after funding is restored “is an open question,” Sewell said. “This certainly indicates the administration wants to cut these agencies and programs at any opportunity either now or in the future.”
Experts offered mixed opinions about whether layoffs would hold up in court. Any such process must follow the rules, such as a 60-day written notice.
“A shutdown provides no new legal authority to engage in widespread firings,” said Sam Berger, who works for the liberal Center on Budget and Policy Priorities and who worked at OMB during the Biden and Obama administrations.
Sen. Chuck Schumer, the Democratic Senate minority leader from New York, said the memo is an “attempt at intimidation” and predicted such firings would be reversed.
Social Security checks and other mandatory spending will continue
Mandatory spending — ongoing spending that does not require periodic extensions from Congress — generally continues during a shutdown. This means Americans would still receive Social Security checks and be able to use Medicare and Medicaid.
In previous shutdowns, border protection, medical care in hospitals, air traffic control, law enforcement and power grid maintenance were deemed essential and remained active during the shutdown.
Even continued services can be disrupted. During the 2018-19 shutdown, holiday travelers faced delays as many unpaid TSA staff and air traffic controllers didn’t come to work.
Administrations have a lot of leeway to define “essential” workers. During the 2013 shutdown, the Obama administration closed national parks. In 2018, the Trump administration kept many national parks open with limited services using previously paid park entrance fees to cover personnel costs; the Government Accountability Office concluded that this violated federal law.
The second-term Trump administration is expected to continue priorities such as immigration enforcement and might try to focus cuts on areas that have already been slashed. Trump campaigned on a promise to abolish the Education Department, and his administration has shrunk the Environmental Protection Agency.
One of the reasons congressional Democrats are unwilling to accept a “clean” stopgap spending bill that would avert a government shutdown until November 21 is the pattern of lawless power grabs by the Trump administration, and particularly by OMB director and Project 2025 co-architect Russell Vought. Indeed, the Democratic counterproposal to the GOP’s “clean” continuing resolution includes a demand that spending clawbacks by Vought be reversed and forsworn. But as the two parties drift toward a government shutdown in five days, with no negotiations in sight, Vought has now thumbed his nose at the Democrats, all precedents, and congressional authority over the federal government by announcing that agencies disfavored by the administration will have massive “reductions in force” if funding runs out on September 30. These RIFs would have the effect of turning the temporary furloughs of “nonessential” federal employees that typically accompany a shutdown into permanent layoffs, with the precise targets and levels of firings dependent on OMB’s judgment about what’s necessary to promote the “president’s priorities.”
This legally shaky directive builds on earlier OMB instructions to federal agencies to prepare RIF plans to terminate as many as 30 percent of their employees, and in some cases, on DOGE assessments of unnecessary programs and personnel. For the most part, the RIFs haven’t materialized, and in some cases, agencies have even hired back employees chased off by the kiddie software warriors of DOGE, which has itself largely given way to Trump-appointed agency heads and OMB. These zombie slash-and-burn efforts are now roaring back to life.
The RIFs would only apply to programs that are funded through annual appropriations, so they would exclude “mandatory” entitlement programs like Social Security and Medicare. OMB has also indicated politically sensitive programs like veterans benefits and Trump pet issues like ICE and border control will be exempt. There are a lot of questions left unclear by Vought’s big move, reflecting his characteristic strategy of using fear and uncertainty to keep the federal workforce under his thumb. And there is nothing much murkier than the law governing RIFs, particularly during a government shutdown.
Whatever its actual effects, it’s clear the administration’s mass-layoff threats are intended to ratchet up the pressure on Democrats to change their position and vote to keep the government open. What Vought is signaling is that he will take exactly those destructive steps Chuck Schumer feared he might take had a shutdown occurred in March, a major factor in the Democratic Senate leader’s controversial decision to abandon the filibuster against the last stopgap spending bill. The key issue isn’t just which side gets blamed for a shutdown, but how bad a shutdown would be for programs and constituencies important to Democrats.
Having said all that, the immediate Democratic reaction to Vought’s announcement has been fist-shaking defiance, as the Hill reported:
“Donald Trump has been firing federal workers since day one — not to govern, but to scare. This is nothing new and has nothing to do with funding the government. These unnecessary firings will either be overturned in court or the administration will end up hiring the workers back, just like they did as recently as today,” Schumer said in a statement late Wednesday.
House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries was blunter:
“Listen, Russ, you are a malignant political hack,” Jeffries said. “We will not be intimidated by your threat to engage in mass firings.
“Get lost.”
Jeffries, of course, has nothing beyond an advisory role in the Senate Democrats’ decision to filibuster the CR or surrender again. The latter decision would undoubtedly enrage Democratic activists and divide the party at a moment when it needs unity more than ever. The idea of giving a victory to Vought and a gloating Donald Trump is for the moment more painful than the shutdown with long-term consequences that may be just over the horizon. A variable yet to be measured is whether congressional Republicans chafe at the mass layoffs and encourage a deal that cancels them. So far this year, their willingness to buck the White House and its agents has been as small as the hope that a government shutdown can be avoided altogether.
White House tells agencies to draft mass firing plans ahead of potential government shutdown
WASHINGTON (AP) — The White House is telling agencies to prepare for large-scale firings of federal workers if the government shuts down next week.
In a memo released Wednesday night, the Office of Management and Budget said agencies should consider a reduction in force for federal programs whose funding would lapse next week, are not otherwise funded, and are “not consistent with the President’s priorities.” That would be a much more aggressive step than in previous shutdowns, when federal workers not deemed essential were furloughed but returned to their jobs once Congress approved government spending.
A reduction in force would not only lay off employees but also eliminate their positions, which would trigger yet another massive upheaval in a federal workforce that has already faced major rounds of cuts this year due to efforts from the Department of Government Efficiency and elsewhere in the Trump administration.
Once any potential government shutdown ends, agencies are asked to revise their reduction-in-force plans “as needed to retain the minimal number of employees necessary to carry out statutory functions,” according to the memo, which was first reported by Politico.
This move from OMB significantly increases the consequences of a potential government shutdown next week and escalates pressure on Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries. The two leaders have kept nearly all of their Democratic lawmakers united against a clean funding bill pushed by President Donald Trump and congressional Republicans that would keep the federal government operating for seven more weeks, demanding immediate improvements to health care in exchange for their votes.
In statements issued shortly after the memo was released, the two Democrats showed no signs of budging.
“We will not be intimidated by your threat to engage in mass firings,” Jeffries wrote in a post on X. “Get lost.”
Jeffries called Russ Vought, the head of OMB, a “malignant political hack.”
Schumer said in a statement that the OMB memo is an “attempt at intimidation” and predicted the “unnecessary firings will either be overturned in court or the administration will end up hiring the workers back.”
OMB noted that it held its first planning call with other federal agencies earlier this week to plan for a shutdown. The budget office plays point in managing federal government shutdowns, particularly planning for them ahead of time. Past budget offices have also posted shutdown contingency plans — which would outline which agency workers would stay on the job during a government shutdown and which would be furloughed — on their website, but this one has not.
The memo noted that congressional Democrats are refusing to support a clean government funding bill “due to their partisan demands,” which include an extension of enhanced health insurance subsidies set to expire at the end of the year, plus a reversal of Medicaid cuts that were included in Republicans’ big tax and spending cuts law.
“As such, it has never been more important for the Administration to be prepared for a shutdown if the Democrats choose to pursue one,” the memo reads, which also notes that the GOP’s signature law, a major tax and border spending package, gives “ample resources to ensure that many core Trump Administration priorities will continue uninterrupted.”
OMB noted that it had asked all agencies to submit their plans in case of a government shutdown by Aug. 1.
“OMB has received many, but not all, of your submissions,” it added. “Please send us your updated lapse plans ASAP.”
