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Tag: Government policy

  • Paid express lanes grow more popular in once-reluctant South

    Paid express lanes grow more popular in once-reluctant South

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    Trucker Tim Chelette has been making the same twice-daily drive for 16 years hauling empty whiskey barrels from Louisville, Kentucky, to the Jack Daniels distillery in Tennessee, yet his workday keeps getting longer due to time lost in Nashville traffic.

    Although trucks wouldn’t be eligible for the pay-to-use express lanes Republican Gov. Bill Lee is advocating for some of Tennessee’s most-congested highways, Chelette supports them because he thinks enough drivers in the fast-growing state capital would take advantage to benefit everyone.

    “They’re going to have to do something,” said Chelette, of Murfreesboro, Tennessee, who gets paid by distance, not time — even when his 245-mile (394-kilometer) return trip to the Lynchburg distillery spikes by an hour or more during afternoon rush. “When I get stuck in traffic, I lose money.”

    Unlike traditional toll plazas where every vehicle that passes through pays a standard fee, price-managed lanes allow some drivers to pay up to circumvent congestion — and the fee usually increases as the traffic does.

    According to the International Bridge, Tunnel and Turnpike Association (IBTTA), which lobbies on behalf of the projects, 54 of the 89 tolling facilities that opened in the U.S. in the past decade were for price-managed lanes. They can be found across the South in Texas, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Virginia, as well as such other places as California, Colorado, Washington and Minnesota.

    Opponents call them “Lexus lanes,” implying that only drivers of expensive cars can afford to use them, but Lee prefers another name: “choice lanes.”

    “I think (the name) is brilliant. I wish I had invented it,” said Robert Poole, director of transportation policy at the libertarian Reason Foundation and a vocal advocate for price-managed lanes.

    The marketing pitch is important, particularly in the conservative South where voters have long resisted anything resembling a tax hike. But with fuel tax revenues and federal infrastructure payments failing to keep up with the need to repair aging roads or add capacity to reduce congestion, the projects are winning favor — even, and perhaps especially, in Republican-led states where “toll” has been considered a four-letter word in more ways than one.

    “All you’re doing is allowing those wealthy enough to use those lanes a quicker ride to work,” said Terri Hall, founder and director of Texans for Toll-free Highways. “It’s like a scapegoat for state legislatures to say, ‘We solved the problem.’ No, you kicked the can down the road.”

    Supporters counter that the lanes are a way to pay for roads without raising taxes, though they acknowledge they’re sometimes a tricky sell — particularly the public-private partnerships that have funded many of the projects.

    “If you have somebody who is anti-tax and pro-free market, they might say it’s a great idea,” said Pat Jones, IBTTA’s executive director and CEO. “Then, if you tell them the company is from Spain or Australia, they’ll say, ‘I don’t want there to be foreigners owning highways.’ You often see opposition to toll facilities before people use them, but once they’re open and people realize they’re getting value … the resistance tends to go down.”

    California’s experience with tolling — both traditional plazas and price-managed lanes — has provided fodder for advocates on both sides of the heated debate.

    A grand jury in Orange County examined a state agency that was created to build three traditional toll roads. Its report, issued in 2021, found that on one hand, California produced “excellent roads with minimal tax dollars.” But on the other, the jurors found ballooning debt and the need to change the initial plans amid financial downturns meant that drivers are on pace to shell out $28 billion by 2053 for roads that cost a tenth of that to build.

    The nation’s first price-managed lane opened in 1995 in Orange County, using a public-private partnership to fund it. Poole, who advised on the project and still calls it a model for others, said officials agreed not to add free lanes on the corridor for 35 years. Surging growth ultimately made that impossible, so the county terminated the contract and paid the company for its lost revenue. New bonds were issued, and the tolls had to stay in place to pay for them.

    “These agencies often become self-fulfilling entities,” said Jay Beeber, director of public policy for the National Motorists Association, which advocates for drivers’ rights. “They have huge organizations with lots of staff members, lots of salaries, huge pensions from the government, and they want to stay in business forever. Nobody wants to legislate themselves out of a job.”

    Tennessee’s governor is seeking legislative support to authorize a public-private partnership for the project — one of 14 states that don’t have tolls on any roads.

    Republican state Sen. Frank Niceley said he expects Lee will get enough votes to pass the plan, but he strongly opposes it — even pointing out that fascist Italian dictator Benito Mussolini liked public-private partnerships, too.

    “We’re not really giving these things to the private sector,” Niceley said. “We’re kind of co-signing the note. And most people who co-sign the note end up paying the note.”

    The governor’s administration brushes off such criticism. Will Reid, chief engineer and deputy commissioner at the Tennessee Department of Transportation, said the state is uniquely positioned to establish a partnership that avoids the financial pitfalls seen in California and elsewhere.

    “We’re one of six no-debt states,” Reid said. “We own every piece of pavement. We own every bridge. We have a strong belief in paying as we go, and paying for the things we decide to build.”

    Mark Burris, professor of civil and environmental engineering at Texas A&M University, researched public sentiment for price-managed lanes in four metro areas: Los Angeles, Dallas, Miami and the Virginia suburbs of Washington, D.C. His review found widespread support from drivers in those areas, with more than three-quarters of those surveyed saying they wanted to see more price-managed lanes open.

    Some of the paid express lanes in Texas have allowed speed limits as much as 10 mph higher than general-purpose lanes, and Hall, with Texans for Toll-free Highways, said the fee can rise to $3 a mile when traffic is busiest. She argues that’s a regressive double-tax that doesn’t alleviate congestion nearly as much as building additional free lanes would — something she contends the state can afford.

    Texas also proves how fleeting the support for these projects can be — even with the same party in control. Former Gov. Rick Perry advocated for price-managed lanes, but his successor, fellow Republican Greg Abbott, has backed a moratorium on new tolls.

    “Fifteen years ago it was all the rage,” Mark Muriello, IBTTA’s director of public policy and government affairs, said of the appetite for the projects in Texas. “The politics tend to change. Nothing stays still.”

    It typically takes 15 years in the U.S. for a road project to open after winning approval, though Tennessee officials are determined to cut that in half. Considering a recent study showing a $34 billion need, Reid — the state transportation official — acknowledges the clock is ticking.

    “As far as whether it works 10, 20, 30 years from now, the proof will be in the pudding,” Reid said. “But one thing is certain — in order to keep pace with the demands on our infrastructure in Tennessee, we’re going to have to find a different way to generate revenue.”

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  • Paid express lanes grow more popular in once-reluctant South

    Paid express lanes grow more popular in once-reluctant South

    [ad_1]

    Trucker Tim Chelette has been making the same twice-daily drive for 16 years hauling empty whiskey barrels from Louisville, Kentucky, to the Jack Daniels distillery in Tennessee, yet his workday keeps getting longer due to time lost in Nashville traffic.

    Although trucks wouldn’t be eligible for the pay-to-use express lanes Republican Gov. Bill Lee is advocating for some of Tennessee’s most-congested highways, Chelette supports them because he thinks enough drivers in the fast-growing state capital would take advantage to benefit everyone.

    “They’re going to have to do something,” said Chelette, of Murfreesboro, Tennessee, who gets paid by distance, not time — even when his 245-mile (394-kilometer) return trip to the Lynchburg distillery spikes by an hour or more during afternoon rush. “When I get stuck in traffic, I lose money.”

    Unlike traditional toll plazas where every vehicle that passes through pays a standard fee, price-managed lanes allow some drivers to pay up to circumvent congestion — and the fee usually increases as the traffic does.

    According to the International Bridge, Tunnel and Turnpike Association (IBTTA), which lobbies on behalf of the projects, 54 of the 89 tolling facilities that opened in the U.S. in the past decade were for price-managed lanes. They can be found across the South in Texas, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Virginia, as well as such other places as California, Colorado, Washington and Minnesota.

    Opponents call them “Lexus lanes,” implying that only drivers of expensive cars can afford to use them, but Lee prefers another name: “choice lanes.”

    “I think (the name) is brilliant. I wish I had invented it,” said Robert Poole, director of transportation policy at the libertarian Reason Foundation and a vocal advocate for price-managed lanes.

    The marketing pitch is important, particularly in the conservative South where voters have long resisted anything resembling a tax hike. But with fuel tax revenues and federal infrastructure payments failing to keep up with the need to repair aging roads or add capacity to reduce congestion, the projects are winning favor — even, and perhaps especially, in Republican-led states where “toll” has been considered a four-letter word in more ways than one.

    “All you’re doing is allowing those wealthy enough to use those lanes a quicker ride to work,” said Terri Hall, founder and director of Texans for Toll-free Highways. “It’s like a scapegoat for state legislatures to say, ‘We solved the problem.’ No, you kicked the can down the road.”

    Supporters counter that the lanes are a way to pay for roads without raising taxes, though they acknowledge they’re sometimes a tricky sell — particularly the public-private partnerships that have funded many of the projects.

    “If you have somebody who is anti-tax and pro-free market, they might say it’s a great idea,” said Pat Jones, IBTTA’s executive director and CEO. “Then, if you tell them the company is from Spain or Australia, they’ll say, ‘I don’t want there to be foreigners owning highways.’ You often see opposition to toll facilities before people use them, but once they’re open and people realize they’re getting value … the resistance tends to go down.”

    California’s experience with tolling — both traditional plazas and price-managed lanes — has provided fodder for advocates on both sides of the heated debate.

    A grand jury in Orange County examined a state agency that was created to build three traditional toll roads. Its report, issued in 2021, found that on one hand, California produced “excellent roads with minimal tax dollars.” But on the other, the jurors found ballooning debt and the need to change the initial plans amid financial downturns meant that drivers are on pace to shell out $28 billion by 2053 for roads that cost a tenth of that to build.

    The nation’s first price-managed lane opened in 1995 in Orange County, using a public-private partnership to fund it. Poole, who advised on the project and still calls it a model for others, said officials agreed not to add free lanes on the corridor for 35 years. Surging growth ultimately made that impossible, so the county terminated the contract and paid the company for its lost revenue. New bonds were issued, and the tolls had to stay in place to pay for them.

    “These agencies often become self-fulfilling entities,” said Jay Beeber, director of public policy for the National Motorists Association, which advocates for drivers’ rights. “They have huge organizations with lots of staff members, lots of salaries, huge pensions from the government, and they want to stay in business forever. Nobody wants to legislate themselves out of a job.”

    Tennessee’s governor is seeking legislative support to authorize a public-private partnership for the project — one of 14 states that don’t have tolls on any roads.

    Republican state Sen. Frank Niceley said he expects Lee will get enough votes to pass the plan, but he strongly opposes it — even pointing out that fascist Italian dictator Benito Mussolini liked public-private partnerships, too.

    “We’re not really giving these things to the private sector,” Niceley said. “We’re kind of co-signing the note. And most people who co-sign the note end up paying the note.”

    The governor’s administration brushes off such criticism. Will Reid, chief engineer and deputy commissioner at the Tennessee Department of Transportation, said the state is uniquely positioned to establish a partnership that avoids the financial pitfalls seen in California and elsewhere.

    “We’re one of six no-debt states,” Reid said. “We own every piece of pavement. We own every bridge. We have a strong belief in paying as we go, and paying for the things we decide to build.”

    Mark Burris, professor of civil and environmental engineering at Texas A&M University, researched public sentiment for price-managed lanes in four metro areas: Los Angeles, Dallas, Miami and the Virginia suburbs of Washington, D.C. His review found widespread support from drivers in those areas, with more than three-quarters of those surveyed saying they wanted to see more price-managed lanes open.

    Some of the paid express lanes in Texas have allowed speed limits as much as 10 mph higher than general-purpose lanes, and Hall, with Texans for Toll-free Highways, said the fee can rise to $3 a mile when traffic is busiest. She argues that’s a regressive double-tax that doesn’t alleviate congestion nearly as much as building additional free lanes would — something she contends the state can afford.

    Texas also proves how fleeting the support for these projects can be — even with the same party in control. Former Gov. Rick Perry advocated for price-managed lanes, but his successor, fellow Republican Greg Abbott, has backed a moratorium on new tolls.

    “Fifteen years ago it was all the rage,” Mark Muriello, IBTTA’s director of public policy and government affairs, said of the appetite for the projects in Texas. “The politics tend to change. Nothing stays still.”

    It typically takes 15 years in the U.S. for a road project to open after winning approval, though Tennessee officials are determined to cut that in half. Considering a recent study showing a $34 billion need, Reid — the state transportation official — acknowledges the clock is ticking.

    “As far as whether it works 10, 20, 30 years from now, the proof will be in the pudding,” Reid said. “But one thing is certain — in order to keep pace with the demands on our infrastructure in Tennessee, we’re going to have to find a different way to generate revenue.”

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  • Silicon Valley Confronts the End of Growth. It’s a New Era for Tech Stocks.

    Silicon Valley Confronts the End of Growth. It’s a New Era for Tech Stocks.

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    Silicon Valley could use a reboot. The biggest players aren’t growing, and more than a few are seeing sharp revenue declines. Regulators seem opposed to every proposed merger, while legislators push for new rules to crack down on the internet giants. The Justice Department just can’t stop filing antitrust suits against Google. The initial public offering market is closed. Venture-capital investments are plunging, along with valuations of prepublic companies. Maybe they should try turning the whole thing on and off.

    The only strategy that seems to be working is to lay people off. Tech CEOs suddenly are channeling Marie Kondo, tidying up and keeping only the people and projects that “spark joy,” or at least support decent operating margins. Layoffs.fyi reports that tech companies have laid off more than 122,000 people already this year.

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  • I’m 66, we have more than $2 million, I just want to golf – can I retire?

    I’m 66, we have more than $2 million, I just want to golf – can I retire?

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    I’m 66 years and 4 months old.

    My Social Security payments start next month at $3,300 a month. I’m currently working part-time, three days per week, as a professional engineer for $95/hour for my long-time regular full-time employer of 28 years. (I want to leave this position ASAP or sooner.) 

    I currently have about $1.6 million in retirement accounts. My wife (60 years old) has about $600,000 in various regular and retirement accounts. We have a 16-year-old daughter at home attending high school and college in a dual enrollment program. If she stays with the program she’ll have her bachelors at 19. While in high school she takes college classes and we pay no tuition while she’s in high school. 

    Our monthly expenses are about $9,000-10,000 per month including health insurance for my wife and daughter. We own our modest single-family home with no mortgage. Taxes and insurance are currently about $6,000 per year. We currently have no debt, aside from an American Express and Visa that we pay off every month.

    I’m on Medicare. I get walloped for a double premium for part “B” because I’m considered a high-wage earner. The two of us are in reasonable/normal health for a couple of old farts.

    I want to throw in the towel on May 5 and play more golf. Can we do it?

    See: We’re in our 60s and have lost $250,000 in our 401(k) plans — can we still retire?  

    Dear reader, 

    Congratulations on saving so much for your retirement. That’s a wonderful accomplishment alone!

    Because I don’t have all of your financials in front of me, nor am I a financial planner building a comprehensive plan for your retirement, I can’t say for certain if you can retire. However, it does obviously sound like you’re doing well and that you’ve been planning. Instead of telling you to go for it or not, I’m going to offer a few things to consider before you pick up your mid irons. 

    More than $2 million (you and your wife’s savings combined) is a lot of money — I’m not suggesting otherwise — but when it comes to retirement, it doesn’t mean you’re automatically good to go once you hit the million-dollar mark. There are so many factors, some of which you mentioned like healthcare and debt, as well as saving and spending. 

    I harp on spending analysis a lot but to me, it’s so crucial when deciding if and how to retire. Why? Because this is something that, for the most part, you can control. That’s a pretty powerful feeling. 

    So my first suggestion: Review those AMEX and Visa statements, as well as money that comes out of any checking accounts, and make sure that you’re spending the way you want and need to spend. When you retire, you won’t have that part-time income anymore, and while you may be itching to get on the green, you’ll also be stressing out if you don’t have enough green in a decade or two. You’ve told me what your Social Security benefits will be and what your average monthly spending is, but I would suggest really poring over your spending and assessing how comfortable you’ll be if you continue to spend that way when you retire. 

    Check out MarketWatch’s column “Retirement Hacks” for actionable pieces of advice for your own retirement savings journey 

    There’s a second part to that analysis, which is how much money you intend to withdraw from your retirement accounts. I’m not sure if your wife is still working, but regardless, the more money you take out of those accounts every month, the less there is available to grow over time. Taxes also play a part here, depending on if you’re withdrawing from a traditional or Roth-style account. Those taxes could take a larger chunk out of your spending money, as well as potentially give you a heftier tax bill come tax time. 

    Think about this when your daughter goes off to college, too. She may not be there long if she continues with her hybrid high school and college courses (which is wonderful, by the way), but do you plan to pay for her tuition, and if so, where is that money coming from? Advisers tell me all the time: you can take a loan for college, but you can’t take one for retirement. It might be beneficial to have a separate savings account earmarked for education, if you don’t already have one of those or some sort of college savings account like a 529 plan, so that you’re not draining your retirement account for a tuition bill. 

    One last bit about that — plan for the unexpected. What will you do if a major expense arises? Will that money also come from a retirement account, or do you have an emergency account set aside to cover it? Saving a lot of money for retirement is amazing, but it’s not the only task individuals need to manage… coming up with a Plan B, and maybe even a Plan C and Plan D, is necessary too. 

    Also see: Are you planning for retirement all wrong? 

    Next, before retiring, check the way your money is invested. What’s your asset allocation like, and does it need to change? Don’t make alterations just to make them — and definitely don’t make them just because you read the markets weren’t doing so hot that day — but keep in mind this money does need to grow for decades to support you and your wife, so you will need to strike that balance. Reaching out to a qualified financial professional, such as a certified financial planner, can help you make sense of what the best investment mix is, but at the least, log in to your account or call up the firm where your accounts are located and check that asset allocation. 

    Also, you mentioned you’re already on Medicare. I would suggest taking the time now — well before open enrollment — to review your current and expected future health expenses, and then assess how helpful your current coverage is for you. I know you mentioned you and your wife are in reasonable health, but if there are any operations or services you think you may need next year, it’s better to start reviewing what plans provide you the best coverage for your situation so that you’re not paying more out of pocket than necessary. This is an exercise you don’t need to do immediately, but it will certainly help you feel more prepared come the end of the year when it’s time to keep your current plan or switch for something else. 

    As an aside, you’ll eventually pay less in Medicare Part B premiums when your modified adjusted gross income declines. Those premiums are based on your tax returns from two years prior. 

    You sound like you are on the right track, which is wonderful. I would just caution you to tie up a few loose ends before resigning so that you can tee up without worrying. 

    Readers: Do you have suggestions for this reader? Add them in the comments below.

    Have a question about your own retirement savings? Email us at HelpMeRetire@marketwatch.com

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  • New leaders, economy to dominate China’s legislative session

    New leaders, economy to dominate China’s legislative session

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    BEIJING — The installation of new leaders and the need to shore up a flagging economy will dominate the annual session of China’s rubber-stamp parliament that kicks off Sunday.

    The nearly 3,000 delegates attending the meeting of the largely powerless National People’s Congress will hear reports on the work of government that lay out the ruling Communist Party’s priorities.

    Don’t expect open debates or criticism. All documents, decisions and appointments are expected to receive unanimous support.

    Below are some of the issues surrounding the roughly 10-day event.

    WHAT’S SPECIAL ABOUT THIS YEAR?

    This year’s gathering comes at the start of China’s latest five-year political cycle, as an addendum to the ruling Communist Party’s 20th annual congress in October.

    That event saw the appointment of a new Politburo Standing Committee, the apex of political power in China, led by Secretary General Xi Jinping, China’s president who has eliminated term limits to allow him to rule for life.

    The congress will see Xi renamed head of state along with the replacement of Li Keqiang as premier and the appointment of other top members of the State Council, China’s Cabinet.

    China’s economy was battered by pandemic-related lockdowns, quarantines and other harsh measures imposed under the “zero-COVID” strategy, adding to the woes of a hugely indebted real estate sector and the precarious state of local government finances.

    Despite optimistic talk from Beijing, many analysts say the economy is in serious trouble.

    At the same time, China’s assertive, often adventurous foreign policy has put it at odds with the U.S. and its allies over issues from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to threats against Taiwan and even the banning of the Chinese short video app TikTok by foreign governments on national security grounds.

    WHAT ARE SOME OTHER THEMES?

    The gathering is expected to pick up on a move to increase centralization — always a key priority for communist states — by shifting responsibilities from government bodies to those directly under the party’s Central Committee.

    That could be most pronounced in the security field, where the responsibilities of the Ministry of Public Security in charge of the police, and the Ministry of State Security that handles foreign and domestic intelligence, could by taken over by party commissions.

    Similar moves have been proposed for the semi-autonomous region of Hong Kong, where the party has steadily ratcheted up control since months of anti-government protests in 2019 and a subsequent crackdown on civil liberties and political opposition.

    Measures to boost a flagging birthrate are also expected to be discussed. That followed the announcement in January that the population fell by 850,000 last year as a result of a cratering birthrate and aging population, the first decline in 61 years.

    Local governments are offering cash and apartments to couples who decide to start families, especially if they’re having more than one child, while authorities are reportedly even considering the once-verboten idea of legally recognizing children born to unwed mothers.

    The issue of Taiwan, which split from the mainland in 1949 and has never been governed by the Communist Party, is also seen as growing more pressing, especially given heightened tensions with Taiwan’s top ally, the United States.

    Since the NPC’s passage in 2005 of an “anti-secession law,” leaders have debated enacting tougher measures to back up Beijing’s threat to use force to annex the island it considers its own territory.

    “Now, of course, some people may think (the NPC) is more conservative. That’s true,” said Cheng Li, an expert on Chinese politics and leadership issues at the Brookings Institution think tank in Washington, D.C.

    Xi has shifted policy so that “the top priority is state security. It’s national security at a time that war becomes more likely,” Cheng said.

    WHAT IS THE NPC AND WHAT DOES IT DO?

    Made up of regional delegations and one from the People’s Liberation Army, the National People’s Congress is technically the highest law-making body in China, although the vast majority of its legislative work is performed by its 175-member Standing Committee that meets year-round.

    Its annual gathering at the hulking Great Hall of the People in the heart of Beijing is the main public forum for communicating the government’s priorities and goals, both economic and political.

    A key document is the premier’s work report that will set the GDP growth target and the defense budget.

    There is also a limited opportunity for feedback, as top officials meet with the various delegation heads, but there is none of the open discussion or tabling of bills typical of other legislatures. That is also the case with the congress’ advisory body, the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, which meets concurrently.

    “The purpose of the annual session is a signaling exercise of what the leadership’s goals are and what they want everyone to think about going forward,” said Scott Kennedy, an expert on the Chinese economy at the Center for Strategic & International Studies.

    WHAT’S IT SAY ABOUT CHINA’S POLITICAL SYSTEM?

    NPC delegates almost all belong to the ruling Communist Party, which has brooked no opposition and very little criticism since seizing power amid civil war in 1949.

    Delegates are generally far better traveled, better educated and more politically astute than in the past. Yet, that hasn’t produced any apparent desire to turn the NPC into a more representative body that could act as a check on government and the ruling party. With few exceptions, the NPC has been a loyal adjunct to the party leadership, offering a patina of democracy to an increasingly authoritarian one-party police state.

    And in case there is any question, the party routinely issues decrees and takes real steps to quash any push for reform smacking of Western-style liberalism. Dissidents have been imprisoned, exiled or intimidated into silence, while human rights lawyers and legal activists have been under massive pressure since a sweeping 2015 roundup.

    Just days before the NPC’s opening, the party’s General Office issued a directive telling law professors and their students to “oppose and resist Western erroneous views such as ‘constitutional government,’ ‘separation of three powers,’ and ’independence of the judiciary.’”

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  • The Carters: What you know may be wrong (or not quite right)

    The Carters: What you know may be wrong (or not quite right)

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    PLAINS, Ga. — Exaggeration, misinformation and myth have always infected politics – even before social media took it to the extreme.

    Misconceptions take especially strong hold where U.S. presidents are concerned: sometimes their advantage, sometimes not. Some claims relate to policy, others to their biographies and personal traits.

    That George Washington story about the cherry tree? Apocryphal. And his teeth weren’t actually made of wood. (At least some of his “false teeth” were taken from the mouths of enslaved persons.) There’s no evidence that William Howard Taft ever got stuck in a bathtub. (He was the heaviest president on record, though, at more than 300 pounds.)

    James Monroe wasn’t the principal force behind the Monroe Doctrine. (That would be his secretary of state and future president John Quincy Adams.) And Richard Nixon wasn’t actually impeached. (He resigned before the full House could vote on the matter.)

    As former President Jimmy Carter receives home hospice care at the age of 98, misconceptions about his life are coming into focus as well. Most are rooted in some truth but need more context:

    MISCONCEPTION: Ronald Reagan freed the American hostages in Iran.

    MORE ACCURATE: Carter and his administration negotiated their release, but Tehran wouldn’t free them until after Reagan’s inauguration on Jan. 20, 1981.

    THE DETAILS: Iranian revolutionaries stormed the U.S. Embassy in Tehran on Nov. 4, 1979. They would hold 52 U.S. citizens for 444 days. From the outset, Carter resolved not to start a shooting war in response. He authorized a rescue mission in the spring of 1980, but mechanical problems forced the helicopter operation to abort and one crashed, killing eight servicemen.

    Carter, a Democrat, continued diplomatic efforts but suffered politically amid intense news coverage of the crisis. He lost in a Nov. 4 landslide to the Republican Reagan. A final round of negotiations began in Algeria after. The U.S. delegation was led by Deputy Secretary of State Warren Christopher. Iradays n and the U.S. finalized terms for the hostages’ release on Carter’s final full day in office, Jan. 19, 1981, and Carter remained in the Oval Office the next morning, Inauguration Day, seeing through details. They were released shortly after Reagan was sworn in. Reagan then sent Carter to West Germany to greet the freed Americans.

    MISCONCEPTION: Jimmy and Rosalynn Carter founded Habitat for Humanity.

    MORE ACCURATE: The Carters have been Habitat’s most famous endorsers and volunteers. But the organization was established by wealthy businessman Millard Fuller and his wife, Linda, as an outgrowth a Georgia commune where the spent time in the 1960s.

    THE DETAILS: Habitat grew out of the housing ministry of Koinonia Farm, a multiracial commune in Carter’s home county that was ostracized in the days of Jim Crow segregation. In 1965, Fuller came to the farm for what he’d later describe as spiritual renewal.

    Carter biographer Jonathan Alter details that Martin Luther King Jr. befriended Koinonia’s white founder, Clarence Jordan, during the civil rights movement. But the non-profit organization was accused in Georgia courts of being a communist front, and King’s inner circle considered it radical. Jordan was beaten on the streets of Americus, a short distance from Plains. Against this backdrop, Alter writes, Jimmy Carter kept his distance. Jordan’s nephew, Hamilton Jordan, would become Carter’s White House chief of staff. Alter records the younger Jordan, who died in 2008, saying his uncle viewed Carter as “just a politician.”

    Koinonia’s local housing programs were formalized as the “Fund for Humanity” in the late 1960s. Carter was running for governor then. The Fullers established Habitat for Humanity in 1976, the year Carter won the presidency. The Carters’ first volunteer Habitat build was in New York City in 1984. That became the annual Jimmy & Rosalynn Carter Work Project, which would eventually build, renovate or repair 4,400 homes in 14 countries. The Carters worked alongside more than 104,000 volunteers, by The Carter Center’s count.

    MISCONEPTION: Jimmy Carter was an unabashed liberal.

    MORE ACCURATE: Carter was a moderate politician, campaigned deliberately and, once in office, pursued policies that don’t fit easily under one label.

    THE DETAILS: Carter sought the presidency in 1976 as an outsider in a party largely controlled in Washington by New Deal liberals and Kennedy loyalists. Carter was a “Southern Democrat” who never gelled with Massachusetts Sen. Ted Kennedy, who challenged him in a damaging 1980 primary. Carter had described himself in Georgia as both “conservative” and “progressive,” depending on the issue, the audience and the campaign. Sometimes he even used those words together.

    He was a good-government policy wonk who spent considerable political capital reorganizing government in Atlanta and then Washington. He pushed windfall taxes on big oil (unsuccessfully) but frustrated fellow Democrats on spending priorities and added little to the national debt compared to all his successors (less than $300 billion in four years). The deregulatory era often associated with Reagan actually began with Carter loosening regulations on airlines, trains and trucking.

    Carter advocated for a national health program but his top health care bill failed because it didn’t go far enough for party liberals, including Kennedy. Carter grew more openly progressive as a former president, voting for Bernie Sanders in the 2016 presidential primaries. But he also warned his party ahead of 2020 not to move too far left if they hoped to defeat then-President Donald Trump.

    MISCONCEPTION: Jimmy Carter is married to “RAHZ-lyn,” and he was there when she was born.

    MORE ACCURATE: It’s “ROSE-lyn,” and he met her as a newborn – but not immediately.

    THE DETAILS: Eleanor Rosalynn (again, “ROSE-lyn”) Smith was born in Plains on Aug. 18, 1927. The nurse who delivered her was Lillian Carter, the future president’s mother. But Jimmy Carter, who was born Oct. 1, 1924, was back on the family farm in nearby Archery, outside Plains. “Miss Lillian” brought her her son back to the Smiths’ house a few days later to see baby Rosalynn, who is now 95.

    As for the pronunciation, remember the flower. The former president’s affectionate name for her might help, too. He often calls her “Rosie.”

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  • N. Korea wants more control over farming amid food shortage

    N. Korea wants more control over farming amid food shortage

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    North Korean leader Kim Jong Un vowed to strengthen state control over agriculture and take a spate of other steps to increase grain production, state media reported Thursday. But experts say it won’t effectively address a worsening food shortage.

    Kim’s measures unveiled during a recent four-day meeting were largely a repeat of his past policies. Prospects for quickly resolving its food insecurity are dim, as North Korea restricts the operation of markets and devotes much of its scarce resources to its nuclear program.

    While experts believe the food situation is the worst it has been under Kim’s 11-year rule, they still say they see no signs of imminent famine or mass deaths.

    During the ruling Workers’ Party meeting that ended Wednesday, Kim said his government sees agricultural development as a matter of “strategic” importance and that farming goals should be settled without fail, according to the official Korean Central News Agency.

    “In order to attain the gigantic long-term objective of rural development, it is necessary to decisively strengthen the party guidance over the agricultural sector and improve the rural party work,” Kim was quoted as saying.

    Kim also ordered officials to overcome unspecified “lopsidedness in the guidance on farming” and concentrate on increasing farm yields. He said provincial, city and county authorities must boost their guidance on agriculture.

    KCNA didn’t elaborate how Kim wants to reinforce his government’s guidance on farming. But experts say Kim’s instructions were a reaffirmation of his push to restore elements of a socialist-style planned economy — under which a central authority controls the market rather than participants — on grain supply. They say that’s one of the factors behind North Korea’s worsened food situation.

    “In our views, they’re going backward and returning to the past,” said Kwon Tae-jin, a senior economist at the private GS&J Institute in South Korea. “To resolve the food problem, they should let markets play a greater role. But they’re rather returning to a planned economy.”

    North Korea’s state rationing system remains largely broken since a crippling famine killed an estimated hundreds of thousands of people in the mid-1990s. The country had since tolerated some levels of open market activities, a move that experts say has helped the North achieve a slow, modest economic growth but could eventually pose a threat to its authoritarian leadership by the Kim family.

    North Korea’s chronic economic difficulties and food insecurity have deepened with toughened United Nations sanctions, the COVID-19 pandemic that decimated its external trade, and the North’s own mismanagement.

    Further aggravating its food shortage was authorities’ unsuccessful attempts to supply grain via state-run facilities while restricting private dealings at markets. Other factors attributed to the food shortage include dwindling personal incomes and sharply decreased unofficial grain purchases from China due to the pandemic curbs, Kwon said.

    “Market participants are still very cautiously acting, so the volume of grain at markets hasn’t increased much,” Kwon said. “If authorities view markets negatively, they can’t be properly recovered.”

    Lim Eul-chul, a professor at Kyungnam University’s Institute for Far Eastern Studies in Seoul, said the latest North Korean meeting was meant to review the progress in existing long-term strategies to improve national food production, remind officials of related goals and discuss ways to implement them.

    But he said there was still no description of meaningfully new strategies or direction.

    North Korea’s 2022 grain production was estimated at 4.5 million tons, a 3.8% drop from a year earlier, according to South Korean assessments. In the previous decade, its annual production was an estimated 4.4 million to 4.8 million tons. South Korea’s spy agency has said North Korea needs 5.5 million tons of grain to feed its 25 million people each year.

    Previous plenary meetings mostly concentrated on the country’s nuclear program or rivalries with the United States and South Korea. Holding an agriculture-focused plenary meeting of the party’s Central Committee could be an acknowledgement the food situation is serious. But some experts say the country also likely aims to burnish Kim’s image as a leader caring for his people and boost domestic support of his push to expand his nuclear arsenal.

    During the meeting, Kim called for faster construction of new irrigation systems that would help the country cope with extreme weather conditions brought by climate change. He also called for manufacturers to build and supply more efficient farming machines and for workers to accelerate their efforts to convert more tideland into farmland.

    Kim said that all state sectors and units must provide “mental and moral, material and technical support and assistance to the rural communities.” He reiterated his calls for greater internal unity behind his leadership to attain agricultural goals.

    “It is difficult to be optimistic about the food supply as long as Pyongyang insists on implementing North Korean-style socialism and isolating the country from international trade and assistance while developing nuclear missiles,” Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, said.

    While North Korea is about 1 million tons of grain short of sufficient annual levels, Lim said that such degrees of shortages have not resulted in mass famines in the past. Kwon said food is still available at markets, though at expensive prices.

    “It’s like very poor people are starving but the government won’t let them die of hunger. Things could continue like that,” Kwon said.

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  • US increases military support for Somalia against al-Shabab

    US increases military support for Somalia against al-Shabab

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    The United States is increasing its military assistance to Somalia as the country sees success in battling what the U_S_ calls “the largest and most deadly al-Qaida network in the world.”

    ByOMAR FARUK and CARA ANNA Associated Press

    MOGADISHU, Somalia — The United States is increasing its military assistance to Somalia as the country sees success in battling what the U.S. calls “the largest and most deadly al-Qaida network in the world.”

    Sixty-one tons of weapons and ammunition arrived Tuesday in Mogadishu, the U.S. said in a statement of support for a historic Somalia-led military offensive against al-Shabab extremists that has recaptured dozens of communities since August.

    In a separate joint statement with other leading security partners Qatar, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates and Britain, the U.S. said they will support Somalia’s efforts to manage weapons and ammunition that could allow the United Nations Security Council to lift its arms embargo on the country.

    “A very productive meeting,” Somalia’s national security adviser, Hussein Sheikh-Ali, tweeted after the Washington gathering.

    The government of Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud declared “total war” last year on the thousands of al-Shabab extremists who for more than a decade have controlled parts of the country and carried out devastating attacks while exploiting clan divisions and extorting millions of dollars a year in their quest to impose an Islamic state.

    The current offensive was sparked in part by local communities and militias driven to the brink by al-Shabab’s harsh taxation policies amid the country’s worst drought on record. Somalia’s government quickly lent support. Now neighbors Ethiopia, Kenya and Djibouti have agreed to a joint “search and destroy” military campaign.

    Somalia is recovering from decades of conflict, and the federal government is eager to shed the country’s history as a failed state and attract investment. Under the current president, the government is cracking down on al-Shabab’s financial network and encouraging religious authorities to reject the extremist group’s propaganda — even enlisting a former deputy al-Shabab leader as Somalia’s current minister for religious affairs.

    The U.S. has an estimated 450 military personnel in Somalia after President Joe Biden reversed his predecessor Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw U.S. forces. The U.S. supports Somali forces and a multinational African Union force with drone strikes, intelligence and training.

    The increased support for the Somalia-led offensive comes as the AU force is set to withdraw from the country and hand over security responsibilities to Somalia by the end of 2024.

    ___

    Anna reported from Nairobi, Kenya.

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  • Alibaba’s Recovery Has Momentum. This Is One Potential Risk.

    Alibaba’s Recovery Has Momentum. This Is One Potential Risk.

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    Analysts are increasingly upbeat about


    Alibaba


    stock in the wake of the group’s quarterly earnings, which supported the narrative that the Chinese tech company’s recovery is on track. But a familiar challenge may be returning.

    Shares in Alibaba Group Holding (ticker: BABA) lost almost half their market value in 2021 as Beijing cracked down on the Chinese technology sector. Things were equally difficult in 2022. Regulatory pressure continued, while economic growth slowed on the mainland, battering Alibaba’s bottom line, as a result of broad lockdowns intended to stamp out Covid-19.

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  • Kremlin official urges deeper ties with China to resist West

    Kremlin official urges deeper ties with China to resist West

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    MOSCOW — Russia’s security head on Tuesday held talks with the Chinese Communist Party’s foreign policy chief, calling for closer cooperation with Beijing to resist Western pressure.

    Nikolai Patrushev, the secretary of Russia’s National Security Council, said during a meeting with Wang Yi, the party’s most senior foreign policy official who is visiting Moscow, that the West sought to deter Russia and China as part of its attempts to preserve global domination.

    “The bloody events in Ukraine staged by the West is just one example of it,” said Patrushev, a longtime associate of Russian President Vladimir Putin. “All that is being done against Russia and China and to the detriment of developing nations.”

    Russia has sought to cast what it calls its “special military operation” as an effort to protect Russian speakers and to derail Western efforts to turn Ukraine into an anti-Russian bulwark. Kyiv and its Western allies reject that argument as a bogus cover for an unprovoked act of aggression.

    Wang said Tuesday that the relations between Moscow and Beijing are “solid as a rock” and will “stand the test of the volatile international situation.”

    The Chinese official noted that Russia and China have “excellent opportunity to continue close strategic cooperation and contacts to protect our shared strategic interests.”

    “Together with the Russian side, we are ready to strongly uphold our national interests and dignity and to expand mutually beneficial cooperation in all areas,” he said in remarks carried by Russian news agencies.

    China, which has declared a “no limits” friendship with Russia, has pointedly refused to criticize Moscow’s actions, blaming the U.S. and NATO for provoking the Kremlin, and has blasted the punishing sanctions imposed on Russia. Russia, in turn, has strongly backed China amid tensions with the U.S. over Taiwan.

    During Tuesday’s meeting with Wang, Patrushev emphasized that “amid a campaign by the West to deter both Russia and China, it is particularly important to further deepen the Russian-Chinese coordination and cooperation in the international arena.”

    Patrushev said that the development of “strategic partnership” with China remains a top priority for Russia, and reaffirmed Moscow’s “invariable support for Beijing on the Taiwan, Xinjang, Tibet and Hong Kong issues, which the West has exploited to discredit China.”

    The two nations have held a series of military drills that showcased increasingly close defense ties amid tensions with the United States.

    Patrushev on Tuesday invited Wang to discuss international and regional issues, adding that “this will help greater consolidation of our approaches and our unity in addressing shared challenges.”

    Wang’s visit to Moscow follows President Joe Biden’s unannounced visit to Ukraine on Monday, where he met with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and reaffirmed a strong U.S. support for Kyiv on the eve of the Russian military operation’s one-year anniversary.

    Before heading to Russia, Wang held talks Saturday with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on the sidelines of an international security conference in Munich. Blinken noted that he reiterated a warning to China against providing assistance to Russia in Ukraine, including helping Moscow with evading sanctions the West has imposed on Moscow.

    Wang is also set to hold talks Wednesday with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. The Kremlin said that a meeting with Putin is also possible.

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  • China Sets New Rules for Overseas IPOs. What It Means for DiDi, Alibaba, and Others.

    China Sets New Rules for Overseas IPOs. What It Means for DiDi, Alibaba, and Others.

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    China has announced new rules on overseas IPOs, potentially sparking the resumption of Chinese companies listing in New York.

    Under the new rules, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) will vet any overseas listing applications, effective from March 31. The regulator has the power to block such IPOs, and the rules make clear listings must not endanger national security.

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  • At 55 years old, I will have worked for 30 years — what are the pros and cons of retiring at that age? 

    At 55 years old, I will have worked for 30 years — what are the pros and cons of retiring at that age? 

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    Dear MarketWatch, 

    I currently own one home, no mortgage with rental income. I own another home that will be paid off the year I turn 55. Both valued at $750,000.  I have a 401(k) and other stocks and investments totaling another $750,000. My debt will be all paid by the year I turn 55.  

    I have been on my job for 27 years. It will be 30 years when I’m 55. What are the disadvantages and advantages of not working after 55 years of age?

    See: ‘I will work until I die’ — I’m 74, have little money saved and battle medical issues. ‘I want to retire so I can have a few years to enjoy life.’

    Dear reader, 

    It is completely understandable that you would want to retire after working for 30 years, especially when you have rental income, but I would caution you to take this decision very seriously and find a few backup plans. 

    One big pro of waiting until 55 is the fact that you get to withdraw from your current 401(k) at that age. It’s called the Rule of 55, and not everyone knows about it. Usually, savers have to wait until they’re 59 ½ years old in order to take distributions from their retirement accounts, such as 401(k) plans and IRAs. An early distribution incurs a 10% penalty, plus taxes. 

    The Rule of 55 gives workers a break if they want to tap into their 401(k) and have separated from their current job for any reason. 

    But you probably don’t want to tap into that 401(k) — or at least, you shouldn’t want to do that.  

    Also see: We have $1.6 million but most is locked in our 401(k) plans — how can we retire early without paying so much in taxes?

    If you stop working at 55, you’re halting a major source of income. Rental property is great, and having no mortgage over your head is a huge plus, but will it be enough to cover your everyday expenses and the unexpected for decades to come? Retirement isn’t what it used to be — people are living longer, which means every dollar you have for retirement needs to last until you die. If you retire at 55, you could potentially be in retirement for 30 years — or more. Do you think your nest egg and any other sources of income, like Social Security and rental income, could cover you for that long? 

    Some people would say $750,000 in a retirement account is more than enough, but others would argue it is not. Of course, it also depends on what your annual expenses are, what future spending could look like if you were to fall ill or need to change something from your current lifestyle. And do you have any other money set aside for various circumstances, like repairs on either of your homes? 

    You could look to see what other sources of income may look like (for example, what can you expect from Social Security?) but you should still find a few backup plans for income so that you’re not sweating it out later in life. Not to be a Debbie Downer, but rental income may not be enough to make ends meet or keep you from distributing too much from your retirement accounts. Also, do you have money set aside to offset your costs if your property is vacant for a little while?

    Check out MarketWatch’s column “Retirement Hacks” for actionable pieces of advice for your own retirement savings journey 

    Also, don’t forget about healthcare. If you’re not married to a spouse who has health insurance through an employer, what would you do? Medicare eligibility starts at age 65, which means you would need your own health insurance for an entire decade, and that can be quite expensive. 

    Instead of retiring fully, is there another job you may be happier working? Or some type of part-time gig you could take on? A huge bonus would be if this job comes with health benefits, as well as another retirement account you could keep putting money into until you’re ready to fully retire. 

    I know this may not have been the answer you wanted to hear, but it’s absolutely worth considering every possible good and bad thing that could come out of retiring early. But as with everything else in life, you need to strike a balance — finding work you can do that brings in an income, while also enjoying your life now. It’s not easy, but it’s worth it to plan this out a bit more before you celebrate the big 55. 

    Readers: Do you have suggestions for this reader? Add them in the comments below.

    Have a question about your own retirement savings? Email us at HelpMeRetire@marketwatch.com

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  • Look for stocks to lose 30% from here, says strategist David Rosenberg. And don’t even think about turning bullish until 2024.

    Look for stocks to lose 30% from here, says strategist David Rosenberg. And don’t even think about turning bullish until 2024.

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    David Rosenberg, the former chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch, has been saying for almost a year that the Fed means business and investors should take the U.S. central bank’s effort to fight inflation both seriously and literally.

    Rosenberg, now president of Toronto-based Rosenberg Research & Associates Inc., expects investors will face more pain in financial markets in the months to come.

    “The recession’s just starting,” Rosenberg said in an interview with MarketWatch. “The market bottoms typically in the sixth or seventh inning of the recession, deep into the Fed easing cycle.” Investors can expect to endure more uncertainty leading up to the time — and it will come — when the Fed first pauses its current run of interest rate hikes and then begins to cut.

    Fortunately for investors, the Fed’s pause and perhaps even cuts will come in 2023, Rosenberg predicts. Unfortunately, he added, the S&P 500
    SPX,
    -0.61%
    could drop 30% from its current level before that happens. Said Rosenberg: “You’re left with the S&P 500 bottoming out somewhere close to 2,900.”

    At that point, Rosenberg added, stocks will look attractive again. But that’s a story for 2024.

    In this recent interview, which has been edited for length and clarity, Rosenberg offered a playbook for investors to follow this year and to prepare for a more bullish 2024. Meanwhile, he said, as they wait for the much-anticipated Fed pivot, investors should make their own pivot to defensive sectors of the financial markets — including bonds, gold and dividend-paying stocks.

    MarketWatch: So many people out there are expecting a recession. But stocks have performed well to start the year. Are investors and Wall Street out of touch?

    Rosenberg: Investor sentiment is out of line; the household sector is still enormously overweight equities. There is a disconnect between how investors feel about the outlook and how they’re actually positioned. They feel bearish but they’re still positioned bullishly, and that is a classic case of cognitive dissonance. We also have a situation where there is a lot of talk about recession and about how this is the most widely expected recession of all time, and yet the analyst community is still expecting corporate earnings growth to be positive in 2023.

    In a plain-vanilla recession, earnings go down 20%. We’ve never had a recession where earnings were up at all. The consensus is that we are going to see corporate earnings expand in 2023. So there’s another glaring anomaly. We are being told this is a widely expected recession, and yet it’s not reflected in earnings estimates – at least not yet.

    There’s nothing right now in my collection of metrics telling me that we’re anywhere close to a bottom. 2022 was the year where the Fed tightened policy aggressively and that showed up in the marketplace in a compression in the price-earnings multiple from roughly 22 to around 17. The story in 2022 was about what the rate hikes did to the market multiple; 2023 will be about what those rate hikes do to corporate earnings.

    “ You’re left with the S&P 500 bottoming out somewhere close to 2,900. ”

    When you’re attempting to be reasonable and come up with a sensible multiple for this market, given where the risk-free interest rate is now, and we can generously assume a roughly 15 price-earnings multiple. Then you slap that on a recession earning environment, and you’re left with the S&P 500 bottoming out somewhere close to 2900.

    The closer we get to that, the more I will be recommending allocations to the stock market. If I was saying 3200 before, there is a reasonable outcome that can lead you to something below 3000. At 3200 to tell you the truth I would plan on getting a little more positive.

    This is just pure mathematics. All the stock market is at any point is earnings multiplied by the multiple you want to apply to that earnings stream. That multiple is sensitive to interest rates. All we’ve seen is Act I — multiple compression. We haven’t yet seen the market multiple dip below the long-run mean, which is closer to 16. You’ve never had a bear market bottom with the multiple above the long-run average. That just doesn’t happen.

    David Rosenberg: ‘You want to be in defensive areas with strong balance sheets, earnings visibility, solid dividend yields and dividend payout ratios.’


    Rosenberg Research

    MarketWatch: The market wants a “Powell put” to rescue stocks, but may have to settle for a “Powell pause.” When the Fed finally pauses its rate hikes, is that a signal to turn bullish?

    Rosenberg: The stock market bottoms 70% of the way into a recession and 70% of the way into the easing cycle. What’s more important is that the Fed will pause, and then will pivot. That is going to be a 2023 story.

    The Fed will shift its views as circumstances change. The S&P 500 low will be south of 3000 and then it’s a matter of time. The Fed will pause, the markets will have a knee-jerk positive reaction you can trade. Then the Fed will start to cut interest rates, and that usually takes place six months after the pause. Then there will be a lot of giddiness in the market for a short time. When the market bottoms, it’s the mirror image of when it peaks. The market peaks when it starts to see the recession coming. The next bull market will start once investors begin to see the recovery.

    But the recession’s just starting. The market bottoms typically in the sixth or seventh inning of the recession, deep into the Fed easing cycle when the central bank has cut interest rates enough to push the yield curve back to a positive slope. That is many months away. We have to wait for the pause, the pivot, and for rate cuts to steepen the yield curve. That will be a late 2023, early 2024 story.

    MarketWatch: How concerned are you about corporate and household debt? Are there echoes of the 2008-09 Great Recession?

    Rosenberg: There’s not going to be a replay of 2008-09. It doesn’t mean there won’t be a major financial spasm. That always happens after a Fed tightening cycle. The excesses are exposed, and expunged. I look at it more as it could be a replay of what happened with nonbank financials in the 1980s, early 1990s, that engulfed the savings and loan industry. I am concerned about the banks in the sense that they have a tremendous amount of commercial real estate exposure on their balance sheets. I do think the banks will be compelled to bolster their loan-loss reserves, and that will come out of their earnings performance. That’s not the same as incurring capitalization problems, so I don’t see any major banks defaulting or being at risk of default.

    But I’m concerned about other pockets of the financial sector. The banks are actually less important to the overall credit market than they’ve been in the past. This is not a repeat of 2008-09 but we do have to focus on where the extreme leverage is centered.

    Read: The stock market is wishing and hoping the Fed will pivot — but the pain won’t end until investors panic

    It’s not necessarily in the banks this time; it is in other sources such as private equity, private debt, and they have yet to fully mark-to-market their assets. That’s an area of concern. The parts of the market that cater directly to the consumer, like credit cards, we’re already starting to see signs of stress in terms of the rise in 30-day late-payment rates. Early stage arrears are surfacing in credit cards, auto loans and even some elements of the mortgage market. The big risk to me is not so much the banks, but the nonbank financials that cater to credit cards, auto loans, and private equity and private debt.

    MarketWatch: Why should individuals care about trouble in private equity and private debt? That’s for the wealthy and the big institutions.

    Rosenberg: Unless private investment firms gate their assets, you’re going to end up getting a flood of redemptions and asset sales, and that affects all markets. Markets are intertwined. Redemptions and forced asset sales will affect market valuations in general. We’re seeing deflation in the equity market and now in a much more important market for individuals, which is residential real estate. One of the reasons why so many people have delayed their return to the labor market is they looked at their wealth, principally equities and real estate, and thought they could retire early based on this massive wealth creation that took place through 2020 and 2021.

    Now people are having to recalculate their ability to retire early and fund a comfortable retirement lifestyle. They will be forced back into the labor market. And the problem with a recession of course is that there are going to be fewer job openings, which means the unemployment rate is going to rise. The Fed is already telling us we’re going to 4.6%, which itself is a recession call; we’re going to blow through that number. All this plays out in the labor market not necessarily through job loss, but it’s going to force people to go back and look for a job. The unemployment rate goes up — that has a lag impact on nominal wages and that is going to be another factor that will curtail consumer spending, which is 70% of the economy.

    “ My strongest conviction is the 30-year Treasury bond. ”

    At some point, we’re going to have to have some sort of positive shock that will arrest the decline. The cycle is the cycle and what dominates the cycle are interest rates. At some point we get the recessionary pressures, inflation melts, the Fed will have successfully reset asset values to more normal levels, and we will be in a different monetary policy cycle by the second half of 2024 that will breathe life into the economy and we’ll be off to a recovery phase, which the market will start to discount later in 2023. Nothing here is permanent. It’s about interest rates, liquidity and the yield curve that has played out before.

    MarketWatch: Where do you advise investors to put their money now, and why?

    Rosenberg: My strongest conviction is the 30-year Treasury bond
    TMUBMUSD30Y,
    3.674%    .
    The Fed will cut rates and you’ll get the biggest decline in yields at the short end. But in terms of bond prices and the total return potential, it’s at the long end of the curve. Bond yields always go down in a recession. Inflation is going to fall more quickly than is generally anticipated. Recession and disinflation are powerful forces for the long end of the Treasury curve.

    As the Fed pauses and then pivots — and this Volcker-like tightening is not permanent — other central banks around the world are going to play catch up, and that is going to undercut the U.S. dollar
    DXY,
    +0.70%    .
    There are few better hedges against a U.S. dollar reversal than gold. On top of that, cryptocurrency has been exposed as being far too volatile to be part of any asset mix. It’s fun to trade, but crypto is not an investment. The crypto craze — fund flows directed to bitcoin
    BTCUSD,
    +0.35%
    and the like — drained the gold price by more than $200 an ounce.

    “ Buy companies that provide the goods and services that people need – not what they want. ”

    I’m bullish on gold
    GC00,
    +0.22%
    – physical gold — bullish on bonds, and within the stock market, under the proviso that we have a recession, you want to ensure you are invested in sectors with the lowest possible correlation to GDP growth.

    Invest in 2023 the same way you’re going to be living life — in a period of frugality. Buy companies that provide the goods and services that people need – not what they want. Consumer staples, not consumer cyclicals. Utilities. Health care. I look at Apple as a cyclical consumer products company, but Microsoft is a defensive growth technology company.

    You want to be buying essentials, staples, things you need. When I look at Microsoft
    MSFT,
    -0.61%    ,
    Alphabet
    GOOGL,
    -1.79%    ,
    Amazon
    AMZN,
    -1.17%    ,
    they are what I would consider to be defensive growth stocks and at some point this year, they will deserve to be garnering a very strong look for the next cycle.

    You also want to invest in areas with a secular growth tailwind. For example, military budgets are rising in every part of the world and that plays right into defense/aerospace stocks. Food security, whether it’s food producers, anything related to agriculture, is an area you ought to be invested in.

    You want to be in defensive areas with strong balance sheets, earnings visibility, solid dividend yields and dividend payout ratios. If you follow that you’ll do just fine. I just think you’ll do far better if you have a healthy allocation to long-term bonds and gold. Gold finished 2022 unchanged, in a year when flat was the new up.

    In terms of the relative weighting, that’s a personal choice but I would say to focus on defensive sectors with zero or low correlation to GDP, a laddered bond portfolio if you want to play it safe, or just the long bond, and physical gold. Also, the Dogs of the Dow fits the screening for strong balance sheets, strong dividend payout ratios and a nice starting yield. The Dogs outperformed in 2022, and 2023 will be much the same. That’s the strategy for 2023.

    More: ‘It’s payback time.’ U.S. stocks have been a no-brainer moneymaker for years — but those days are over.

    Plus: ‘The Nasdaq is our favorite short.’ This market strategist sees recession and a credit crunch slamming stocks in 2023.

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  • Indigenous senator quits party over Australian referendum

    Indigenous senator quits party over Australian referendum

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    CANBERRA, Australia: — An Indigenous senator in Australia quit the minor Greens party on Monday in a disagreement over a referendum to be held this year that would create an Indigenous Voice to Parliament.

    Sen. Lidia Thorpe’s resignation illustrates deep divisions among Indigenous Australians on the referendum and increases the difficulty for the government in getting legislation through the Senate.

    The Greens have suggested they will support a referendum likely to be held this year that would enshrine in the constitution a body representing Indigenous people to advise Parliament on policies that effect their lives. It would be known as the Indigenous Voice.

    Thorpe had argued that Australia should first sign a treaty with its original inhabitans that acknowledged that they had never ceded their sovereignty to the British colonists.

    She said after quitting the Greens that the party’s support for the Voice was “at odds with the community of activists who are saying treaty before Voice.”

    “This country has a strong grassroots black sovereign movement full of staunch and committed warriors and I want to represent that movement fully in this Parliament,” Thorpe told reporters. “It has become clear to me that I can’t do that from within the Greens.”

    Another high-profile Indigenous Sen. Jacinta Nampijinpa Price has also spoken out against the Voice, arguing it would divide the nation along racial lines. Her conservative party, the Nationals, took an official position in November to oppose the referendum, prompting a senior lawmaker and Voice advocate Andrew Gee to quit the party.

    Bipartisan support has long been regarded as a prerequisite for a referendum’s success. But despite the divisions, an opinion poll published by The Australian newspaper on Monday found 56% of respondents in favor of the Voice. Opponents accounted from 37% and 7% were undecided.

    The survey of 1,512 voters nationwide was conducted from Feb. 1 to 4. It had a 3 percentage point margin of error.

    Indigenous people accounted for 3.2% of Australia’s population in the 2021 census. Indigenous Australians are the most disadvantaged ethnic group in Australia. They die younger than other Australians, are less likely to be employed, achieve lower education levels and are overrepresented in prison populations.

    Greens leader Adam Bandt and his deputy Mehreen Faruqi said they were sorry Thorpe had decided to leave their progressive party.

    Bandt said he had told Thorpe that the party’s constitution allowed her to take a different position on the Voice from her colleagues.

    Pakistan-born Faruqi said she and Thorpe had worked together as “strong allies against white supremacy and racism in all its forms.”

    “I know that we will continue to work together, this work of decolonization, as well as working for climate justice,” Faruqi said.

    Thorpe said she would continue to work with the Greens on their climate policy. The Greens want Australia to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 75% below 2005 levels by the end of the decade.

    The center-left Labor Party government enshrined in law a 43% target after it was elect in May last year.

    Labor has relied on the Greens’ 12 senators to pass legislation through the upper chamber that the conservative opposition party opposes.

    With the Greens’ support, Labor had only needed to enlist the vote of a single unaligned senator. With Thorpe’s departure, Labor now will need the support of two unaligned senators.

    Bandt said the government would continue to rely on the Greens to get its legislative agenda through the Senate.

    “The situation remains now still more or less the same in the Senate. The Greens are central in the balance of power in the Senate,” Bandt said.

    Thorpe has proved a radical and divisive element in the Senate. She was criticized for referring to the then-British monarch during a Senate swearing in ceremony in August last year as “the colonizing, her majesty Queen Elizabeth II.”

    She resigned as the Greens deputy leader in the Senate in October over what Bandt called a “significant lack of judgment” in failing to declare an intimate relationship she had with a former president of a biker gang.

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  • Omicron subvariant that’s dominant in U.S. extends lead over other variants in latest week, CDC data shows

    Omicron subvariant that’s dominant in U.S. extends lead over other variants in latest week, CDC data shows

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    The omicron subvariant that became dominant in the U.S. several weeks ago continued to extend its lead over other variants in the latest week, according to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data that was updated on Friday.

    XBB.1.5, the omicron sublineage that first emerged in small numbers in October, accounted for 66.4% of cases in the week through Feb. 4, the data shows. That’s up from 61.3% the previous week. The prior dominant variants, BQ.1.1 and BQ.1, together accounted for 27.2% of new cases, down from 31.1% the previous week.

    In the CDC’s Region 2, which includes New York, New Jersey, the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, XBB.1.5 accounted for 92.4% of new cases, up from 91.1% the previous week.

    The World Health Organization is monitoring XBB and its sublineages and has said that so far, it shows a growth advantage over other circulating variants — in other words, it’s more infectious — but there is still no data to suggest it’s any more lethal, or likely to cause severe illness or death.

    The WHO said this week the pandemic is not yet over, although the world may be reaching an inflection point as higher immunity rates lower death rates. But it also urged countries to stay the course, while President Joe Biden has pledged to end twin COVID emergencies on May 11, a move that has dismayed healthcare experts.

    Travel between Hong Kong and China will no longer require COVID-19 PCR tests nor be held to a daily limit, authorities announced Friday, as both places seek to drive economic growth, the Associated Press reported.

    Hong Kong’s tourism industry has suffered since 2019 after months of political strife that at times turned into violent clashes between protesters and police, as well as harsh entry restrictions implemented during the pandemic.

    The announcement came a day after Lee unveiled a tourism campaign aimed at attracting travelers to Hong Kong that includes 500,000 free air tickets for tourists to visit the semi-autonomous Chinese city.

    Read also: What happens when the COVID-19 emergency declaration ends? Brace for big changes to your health coverage and medical costs

    In the U.S., the seven-day average of new U.S. COVID cases stood at 41,412 on Thursday, according to a New York Times tracker. That’s down 19% from two weeks ago. The daily average for hospitalizations was down 21% at 31,394. The average for deaths was 462, down 7% from two weeks ago.

    Cases are now rising in 17 states, the tracker shows, led by Minnesota, where they are up 63% from two weeks ago. On a per capita basis, cases are highest in Kentucky at 22 per 100,000 residents.

    Coronavirus update: MarketWatch’s daily roundup has been curating and reporting all the latest developments every weekday since the coronavirus pandemic began

    Other COVID-19 news you should know about:

    • China’s COVID lockdowns, and the ending of them in December that sparked a wave of cases, are featuring prominently in U.S. fourth-quarter earnings, with Starbucks
    SBUX,
    -2.68%
    the latest company to highlight their impact on its performance. The coffee-shop chain’s stock was down 3.8% Friday, after it said same-store sales in China, a key market, fell 29% because of the case surge. That was enough to drag down international same-store sales, which had an overall drop of 13%. Still, Chief Financial Officer Rachel Ruggeri said on the call that, “excluding China, we had tremendous growth across markets.” She also said the company’s fiscal 2023 outlook remains unchanged.

    • Some Georgia senators want to permanently block schools and most state and local government agencies from requiring people to get vaccinated against COVID, the AP reported. In 2022, lawmakers put a one-year ban into law, part of a nationwide conservative backlash against mandates meant to prevent the spread of the respiratory illness. But that ban expires on June 30 in Georgia if lawmakers don’t act. The Senate Health and Human Services Committee voted 7-2 this week to advance Senate Bill 1, which makes the ban permanent, to the full Senate.

    • After a two-year hiatus due to the coronavirus pandemic that brutally brought one of Europe’s oldest Mardi Gras celebrations in Binche, Belgium to a halt, celebrations are back with a vengeance this winter, the AP reported. The earliest records of the Binche Mardi Gras, which draws thousands of revelers, date to the 14th century. Many Belgian towns hold ebullient carnival processions before Lent. But what makes Binche unique are the “Gilles”—local men deemed fit to wear the Mardi Gras costumes. Under rules established by the local folklore defense association, only men from Binche families or having resided there for at least five years are eligible to wear the Gille costume. Other characters—the Peasant, the Sailor, the Harlequin, the Pierrot or the Gille’s Wife—also play a role in the carnival.

    Here’s what the numbers say:

    The global tally of confirmed COVID-19 cases topped 671.3 million on Monday, while the death toll rose above 6.83 million, according to data aggregated by Johns Hopkins University.

    The U.S. leads the world with 102.5 million cases and 1,110,856 fatalities.

    The CDC’s tracker shows that 229.6 million people living in the U.S., equal to 69.2% of the total population, are fully vaccinated, meaning they have had their primary shots.

    So far, just 51.4 million Americans, equal to 15.5% of the overall population, have had the updated COVID booster that targets both the original virus and the omicron variants.

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  • WHO counted nearly 20 million new COVID cases in latest month as it shifts from weekly reporting schedule

    WHO counted nearly 20 million new COVID cases in latest month as it shifts from weekly reporting schedule

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    The World Health Organization said nearly 20 million new COVID cases were recorded in the 28 days through Jan. 29, down 78% from the previous 28 days.

    The WHO counted more than 114,000 deaths in the period, up 65% from the previous one.

    The agency is switching to a 28-day interval to smooth out weekly fluctuations in cases and deaths, but it continues to caution that a reduction in testing and delays in reporting in many countries are distorting the numbers.

    “Current trends in reported COVID-19 cases are underestimates of the true number of global infections and reinfections as shown by prevalence surveys,” the WHO said in its weekly epidemiological update. 

    The WHO is now prioritizing four omicron descendent lineages, including XBB.1.5, which is dominant in the U.S., according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

    The other three are BF.7, BQ.1 and BA.2.75, along with their sublineages. These are currently the ones showing a growth-rate advantage in some countries compared with other circulating variants.

    U.S. cases are still declining. The seven-day average of new cases stood at 41,771 on Wednesday, according to a New York Times tracker. That’s down 23% from two weeks ago.

    The daily average for hospitalizations was down 22% at 31,593. The average for deaths was 453, down 6% from two weeks ago, but still an undesirably high number heading into the third year of the pandemic and ahead of President Joe Biden’s plan to end the twin COVID emergencies on May 11.

    Coronavirus update: MarketWatch’s daily roundup has been curating and reporting all the latest developments every weekday since the coronavirus pandemic began

    Other COVID-19 news you should know about:

    • Quest Diagnostics Inc.
    DGX,
    -1.55%
    is the latest healthcare company to report a steep drop in revenue from COVID-related products, in this instance a 74.6% slide in tests in its fourth quarter. Revenue from COVID tests fell to $184 million in the quarter from $722 million a year ago, when the omicron wave was about to crest. But the company still posted better-than-expected earnings, raised its quarterly dividend and added $1 billion to its share-buyback authorization, which has $311 million already available. 

    • Hong Kong will give away air tickets and vouchers to woo tourists back to the international financial hub as it races to catch up with other popular travel destinations in a fierce regional competition, the Associated Press reported. During the pandemic, the city largely aligned itself with mainland China’s zero-COVID strategy and has relaxed its entry rules months later than rival destinations such as Singapore, Japan and Taiwan. Even after it reopened its border with mainland China in January, tourism recovery was sluggish. On Thursday, Chief Executive John Lee launched a tourism campaign, “Hello Hong Kong,” saying the city will offer 500,000 free air tickets to welcome tourists from around the world in what he called “probably the world’s biggest welcome ever.”

    • Washington state Gov. Jay Inslee has tested positive for COVID-19 for the second time, the AP reported separately. Inslee’s office said in a statement Wednesday that he had tested positive and was experiencing very mild symptoms, including a cough. He is consulting with his doctor about whether to receive Paxlovid antiviral treatments, according to the statement. He plans to continue working. Trudi Inslee, his spouse, has tested negative.

    Here’s what the numbers say:

    The global tally of confirmed COVID-19 cases topped 671.1 million on Monday, while the death toll rose above 6.83 million, according to data aggregated by Johns Hopkins University.

    The U.S. leads the world with 102.5 million cases and 1,109,687 fatalities.

    The CDC’s tracker shows that 229.6 million people living in the U.S., equal to 69.2% of the total population, are fully vaccinated, meaning they have had their primary shots.

    So far, just 51.4 million Americans, equal to 15.5% of the overall population, have had the updated COVID booster that targets both the original virus and the omicron variants.

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  • Amazon gets 3 more warehouse-safety citations as OSHA warns company to ‘take these injuries seriously’

    Amazon gets 3 more warehouse-safety citations as OSHA warns company to ‘take these injuries seriously’

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    The federal government on Wednesday hit Amazon.com Inc. with worker-safety related citations and penalties at three more warehouses, two weeks after issuing citations at the company’s warehouses in three different states.

    The latest citations are the result of the Occupational Safety and Health Administration’s investigation of Amazon
    AMZN,
    +1.96%
    warehouses stemming from referrals from the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York. At all six locations, OSHA investigators cited the company for exposing warehouse workers to a high risk of low back injuries and other musculoskeletal disorders and asked for a multitude of changes and corrections.

    “Amazon’s operating methods are creating hazardous work conditions and processes, leading to serious worker injuries,” said OSHA Assistant Secretary Doug Parker in a statement Wednesday. “They need to take these injuries seriously and implement a company-wide strategy to protect their employees from these well-known and preventable hazards.”

    See: Amazon cited for warehouse working conditions ‘designed for speed but not safety’

    The newest citations come from investigations into Amazon warehouses in Aurora, Colo.; Nampa, Idaho; and Castleton, N.Y. At all three sites, OSHA inspectors concluded that workers are suffering from musculoskeletal injuries “as a result of lifting heavy items while attempting to meet pace of work and production quotas,” according to each of the hazard letters that were sent to those warehouses’ operations managers. Those concerns were similar to those raised by OSHA at the three other Amazon warehouses in Florida, Illinois and a different warehouse in New York a couple of weeks ago.

    In Aurora and Nampa, inspectors also found evidence that injuries may not have been reported because Amazon’s on-site first-aid clinic “was not staffed appropriately.” In Castleton, staffers at the company’s on-site clinic, known as AmCare, “question whether workers are actually injured, pressure injured workers to work through their injuries, and steer injured workers to Amazon-preferred doctors,” Rita Young, OSHA area director, wrote in the hazard letter.

    The penalties associated with the citations at the three sites total $46,875. OSHA also asked Amazon to detail the changes it makes in response, and said the company’s response will determine whether more evaluation is needed. In addition, the agency’s inspectors may do follow-up visits within the next six months.

    Just like with the first three citations, Amazon intends to appeal.

    “We take the safety and health of our employees very seriously, and we don’t believe the government’s allegations reflect the reality of safety at our sites,” Amazon spokeswoman Kelly Nantel said in an emailed statement.

    A company spokeswoman also referred to several safety-related efforts by the company, including its partnership with the National Safety Council; equipment that’s supposed to help reduce the need for twisting, bending and reaching; and “process improvements” designed by Amazon’s robotics team.

    In anticipation of Wednesday’s OSHA citations, a group of worker advocates held a virtual news conference Tuesday. Among the panelists was Debbie Berkowitz, a former chief of staff at OSHA and now a fellow at the Kalmanovitz Initiative for Labor and the Working Poor at Georgetown University.

    “I want to make it clear to everybody that these OSHA citations are incredibly historic and significant,” Berkowitz said. “Don’t get thrown by the low amount of penalties,” she added, saying the Occupational Safety and Health Act is a “weak law.”

    She went on to say that “OSHA really grounded their investigations using doctors, experts, and what to do to mitigate the hazards… They show that Amazon needs to take action.”

    Also present on the news conference was Amazon warehouse worker Jennifer Crane, from St. Peters, Mo.

    “I’m glad to see OSHA investigate the safety crisis at Amazon,” she said. “The company blames us for getting injured. They push us to work at unrealistic speeds.”

    Also: As Amazon shareholders call for audit of warehouse working conditions, report finds more than double the rate of injuries than at other warehouses

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  • These 20 stocks led the January rally

    These 20 stocks led the January rally

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    The initial version of this story had incorrect price changes for 2023. It is now updated with information as of the market close on Jan. 31.

    Investors staged a January rally, with solid gains for the S&P 500 and an even better showing for technology stocks that led the dismal downward action in 2022.

    This…

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  • Biden to end U.S. COVID emergencies on May 11, but more than 500 people are still dying every day

    Biden to end U.S. COVID emergencies on May 11, but more than 500 people are still dying every day

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    President Joe Biden will end the twin national emergencies for addressing COVID-19 on May 11, as most of the world gets closer to normalcy nearly three years after the emergencies were first declared, the Associated Press reported. 

    The move would formally overturn the federal response to the virus and change it to one where COVID is treated as an endemic threat to public health, much like the flu, which returns seasonally but can be managed without major disruption to the healthcare system.

    The…

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  • Pandemic is still a global health emergency but it may be reaching a point where higher immunity levels mean fewer deaths

    Pandemic is still a global health emergency but it may be reaching a point where higher immunity levels mean fewer deaths

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    The coronavirus pandemic is still a global health emergency, according to the World Health Organization, but an advisory panel has determined that it may be nearing an inflection point where higher levels of immunity will lead to fewer deaths.

    That was the message Monday from WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus at the agency’s annual executive board meeting. He said that the world is in a far better state today than it was a year ago, when the omicron wave was at its peak.

    But Tedros cautioned that weekly reported deaths have been climbing since the beginning of December, at a cost of more than 170,000 lives.

    “And that’s just the reported deaths; we know the actual number is much higher,” Tedros said at the meeting. “We can’t control the virus, but we can do more to address the vulnerabilities in populations and health systems.”

    Vaccination remains the key tool, he said, and countries must vaccinate 100% of their most at-risk groups and increase access to testing and early antiviral use.  When there is a surge in cases, countries need context-specific measures, including maintaining and expanding laboratory networks.

    “And it means fighting misinformation,” he said. “We remain hopeful that in the coming year, the world will transition to a new phase in which we reduce hospitalizations and deaths to the lowest possible level, and health systems are able to manage COVID-19 in an integrated and sustainable way. “

    His comments comes as U.S. cases, hospitalizations and deaths continue to fall, with the seven-day average of new cases standing at 46,021 on Sunday, according to a New York Times tracker. That’s down 25% from two weeks ago.

    The daily average for hospitalizations was down 22% to 33,451. The average for deaths was 521, down 8% from two weeks ago. 

    Cases are currently rising in just nine states, as well as in the U.S. Virgin Islands. Tennessee is leading with total case counts, which are up 104% in two weeks, and also on a per capita basis, with 51 cases per 100,000 residents.

    Coronavirus update: MarketWatch’s daily roundup has been curating and reporting all the latest developments every weekday since the coronavirus pandemic began

    Other COVID-19 news you should know about:

    • Chinese health officials are saying that the wave of cases that emerged after the government dropped strict COVID restrictions in December is “coming to an end,” BBC News reported. China’s Center for Disease Control and Prevention said there had been “no obvious rebound” in cases during Lunar New Year holiday gatherings last week. “In this time, no new variant has been discovered, and the country’s current wave is coming to an end,” said China’s CDC. China has understated its COVID numbers throughout the pandemic, but experts say the decline reported now corresponds with the expected timing of an end to this major wave.

    What’s seen as the world’s largest annual human migration is under way again in China for the Lunar New Year, after the country lifted pandemic restrictions. The Wall Street Journal’s Yoko Kubota reports on how it’s expected to boost the economy — and the risk of new COVID-19 outbreaks. Photo: Cfoto/Zuma Press

    • China announced it would resume issuing visas for Japanese travelers beginning Sunday, ending its nearly three-week suspension that was an apparent protest of Tokyo’s tougher entry requirements for tourists from China, the Associated Press reported. The statement was posted on the Chinese Embassy’s website. Japan reopened its borders for individual tourists in October, allowing travelers to show proof of vaccination instead of testing at airports unless they show symptoms, but on Dec. 30, Japan began requiring all travelers from China to show a predeparture negative test and take an additional test upon arrival.

    • A former Russian Orthodox monk who denied that the coronavirus existed and defied the Kremlin was handed a seven-year prison sentence Friday, the AP reported separately. Nikolai Romanov, 67, who was known as Father Sergiy until his excommunication by the Russian Orthodox Church, urged his followers to disobey the Russian government’s lockdown measures and spread conspiracy theories about a global plot to control the masses. A court in Moscow convicted him of inciting hatred. His lawyer immediately announced plans to appeal.

    Here’s what the numbers say:

    The global tally of confirmed COVID-19 cases topped 670.4 million on Monday, while the death toll rose above 6.82 million, according to data aggregated by Johns Hopkins University.

    The U.S. leads the world with 102.3 million cases and 1,107,646 fatalities.

    The CDC’s tracker shows that 229.6 million people living in the U.S., equal to 69.2% of the total population, are fully vaccinated, meaning they have had their primary shots.

    So far, just 51.4 million Americans, equal to 15.5% of the overall population, have had the updated COVID booster that targets both the original virus and the omicron variants.

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