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Tag: Government policy

  • The Senate’s bipartisan approach to government funding is putting pressure on a divided House

    The Senate’s bipartisan approach to government funding is putting pressure on a divided House

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    WASHINGTON — On one side of the Capitol, two senators have steered the debate over government funding mostly clear of partisan fights, creating a path for bills to pass with bipartisan momentum.

    Steps away, on the House side of the building, things couldn’t be more different.

    House Republicans, trying to win support from the far-right wing of the party, have loaded up their government funding packages with spending cuts and conservative policy priorities. Democrats have responded with ire, branding their GOP counterparts as extreme and bigoted, and are withdrawing support for the legislation.

    The contrary approaches are not unusual for such fights in Congress. But the differences are especially stark this time, creating a gulf between the chambers that could prove difficult to bridge. The dynamic threatens to plunge the United States into yet another damaging government shutdown, potentially as soon as the end of September when last year’s funding expires.

    Leaders in both chambers are trying to project strength as they enter negotiations that will determine the fate of billions of dollars in government programs, military aid for Ukraine and emergency disaster recovery funds.

    The Senate strategy is being led by the first female duo to hold the top leadership spots on the Senate Appropriations Committee, Sens. Patty Murray, D-Wash., and Susan Collins, R-Maine.

    The two have worked for months to pull off a feat not seen in Congress in five years, crafting 12 separate funding bills through the so-called regular order process, which involves crafting legislation in open committee hearings. The goal is to avoid an outcome that rank-and-file lawmakers in both parties loathe: being forced to fund the government at year’s end with a sprawling omnibus package, nearly sight unseen, after it emerges from closed-door negotiations.

    “I heard from many members at the end of last year, Republicans and Democrats, that they don’t want this dysfunction,” Murray told The Associated Press. “They want the appropriations bill not to be some big conglomerate at the end of the year that nobody knows what’s in it.”

    As Murray took the helm of the committee earlier this year, she and Collins began to build on their decades-old working relationship. Murray also met with the top Democrats and Republicans on each subcommittee and urged them to shield funding legislation from “poison pill” policy riders that would drive away the members of one party or the other.

    Their effort was at first met with skepticism, Murray said. But as the Senate grinds toward votes on their funding bills, they have won plaudits from leadership in both parties.

    Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., called the appropriations work “a shining example of how things should work in Washington.” Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky has been supportive as well, saying Murray and Collins “have taken us in the right direction.”

    Collins said she has urged her Republican colleagues, who are in the minority, to “understand that if they really believe in regular order, we need to proceed with these bills and start the amendment process and conclude the bills and send them on their way to the House.”

    So far, Senate appropriations bills have made it out of the committee on large bipartisan votes, and the Senate this past week took a step toward a final vote on the first package of three spending bills with a 91-7 vote.

    Thanks to the filibuster that forces a 60-vote threshold for passage of most legislation, the Senate has no choice but to work on a bipartisan basis when it comes to most major legislation. But the chamber is hardly immune to political brinkmanship. A few GOP senators allied with conservatives in the House are working to slow the Senate’s work on appropriations bills. The delay could give the House more time to advance its own, hard-line approach.

    Still, the Senate’s coordination on the bills only intensifies the pressure on House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who abandoned a plan to pass a defense funding bill — one of the 12 appropriations bills, and usually one of the least controversial — after members of the House Freedom Caucus refused to support it advancing to a vote on the House floor.

    “You’re stronger when you have one House and you can advocate for the policies you want and you’ve passed that,” McCarthy, R-Calif., said Wednesday, shortly after he was forced to call off the vote.

    The top lawmakers on the House Appropriations Committee, Reps. Kay Granger of Texas, R-Texas, and Rosa DeLauro, D-Conn., have had a good working relationship, but their bills are shaped by larger forces in the House. That means all eyes are on McCarthy as he tries to win support from the conservative wing of his own conference.

    To win the speaker’s gavel, McCarthy committed to returning the appropriations process to regular order. He reiterated that approach this week saying, “The American public wins in this — that they actually see the bills.”

    But with a thin majority and a shaky hold on his leadership position, McCarthy has allowed House Republicans to craft packages that cut below the agreement he struck in May with President Joe Biden to suspend the nation’s borrowing limit. They have also loaded the House’s appropriations bills with conservative policy wins, ensuring Democratic opposition.

    McCarthy has also ratcheted up the political divide in the House by directing an impeachment inquiry into Biden — a move that the right-wing of his conference has been demanding for months.

    “House Republicans have made clear that they are determined to shut down the government and try to jam their extreme right-wing ideology down the throats of the American people,” said House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York.

    Republican appropriators have used their funding bills to engage in charged partisan fights, teeing up cuts to programs that benefit LGBTQ people, funding for the Department of Defense’s policy of facilitating travel for service members to receive abortions and defunding offices and positions that Republicans see as liberal.

    Committee hearings often grew tense over the summer as Democrats accused Republicans of betraying future generations by cutting money for environmental protections and climate programs. Republicans criticized current spending levels as a betrayal of their children and grandchildren because it imperils the future of Social Security and Medicare.

    Rep. Tom Cole of Oklahoma, a senior Republican, dismissed the House ruckus as “the chaos of democracy.”

    “We’re actually having a real legislative debate over here, a pretty robust discussion and some pretty hardball politics,” he said.

    But a government shutdown is approaching rapidly, leaving House Republicans little time to form an appropriations plan or pass a short-term measure that would give them more time to negotiate a funding deal.

    McCarthy told a closed-door House GOP meeting on Thursday that he would keep the House in session longer than scheduled if necessary, according to lawmakers in attendance.

    Exiting the meeting, Rep. Don Bacon, R-Neb., said McCarthy’s message was stark: “We will be losers if we get a shutdown.”

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  • Biden aims to beef up safeguards for government workers as GOP hopefuls vow to slash workforce

    Biden aims to beef up safeguards for government workers as GOP hopefuls vow to slash workforce

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    WASHINGTON — WASHINGTON (AP) — The Biden administration on Friday took steps meant to strengthen protections for government employees as leading Republican presidential candidates, including former President Donald Trump, campaign on shrinking and remaking the federal workforce.

    The effort outlined by the Office of Personnel Management includes clarifications that federal employees can’t lose certain civil service protections unless they give them up voluntarily, and a provision meant to ensure that certain rules covering political appointees won’t be “misapplied” to career, nonpolitical workers, according to the agency.

    It would also, in effect, make it tougher to shift federal workers to a classification status that would make it easier for the employees to be stripped of their civil service protections, OPM said.

    The announcement comes as Trump allies and other conservative outside groups begin mapping out a government-wide effort that would dismantle what Republicans call a “deep state” bureaucracy that would be in place to thwart Trump or a Trump-like figure should the party retake the White House in 2024. That push could lead to the firing of as many as 50,000 federal workers.

    In a statement, the current OPM director, Kiran Ahuja, said the proposal is meant to help ensure that the 2.2 million federal workers in nonpolitical positions “can carry out their duties without fear of political reprisal.”

    “Career federal employees deliver critical services for Americans in every community,” Ahuja said. “Prior attempts to needlessly politicize their work risked harming the American people.”

    The OPM’s proposal follows President Joe Biden’s move soon after his inauguration to revoke a Trump-era executive order that would make it easier to fire tens of thousands of federal workers by reclassifying them as essentially at-will employees. That order from Trump, called “Schedule F,” would form the foundation for much of the conservative remaking of the federal workforce, and Trump, as well as other contenders for the GOP presidential nomination, have said they would reinstate it.

    Russ Vought, who served as director of the Office of Management and Budget under Trump, said Friday that OPM’s announcement only underscores that Schedule F is legally sound, “is going to succeed spectacularly and the only chance to stop it is to install procedural roadblocks.”

    “Fortunately, from experience, I know that once a president issues an executive order setting it as a policy, it will have the intended impact of moving toward a professional, experienced, and mission-focused workforce,” said Vought, now the president of Center for Renewing America, a conservative think tank led by former Trump administration officials. “In the meantime, we will vigorously be opposing OPM’s new rule at every turn.”

    Other Republican presidential contenders have embraced Trump’s stance of dismantling the current federal workforce, capitalizing on the growing suspicion from their base that in the government lies a so-called “deep state” that worked against Trump’s priorities while he was in office.

    For instance, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy vowed during remarks at the America First Policy Institute in Washington earlier this week that he would aim to cut the federal workforce by half during his first year as president and by 75% throughout his first term.

    Everett Kelley, national president of the American Federation of Government Employees labor union, said he applauds the administration for the rulemaking. The union represents 750,000 federal and D.C. government workers.

    “I have to commend the administration for such a bold move,” he said. “Political appointees can be used to do a lot of things that are unethical if you ask me. This puts a stop to that.”

    AP writer Fatima Hussein contributed to this report.

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  • UAW strike: Ford, GM, Stellantis record profits haven’t been shared fairly with workers, Biden says

    UAW strike: Ford, GM, Stellantis record profits haven’t been shared fairly with workers, Biden says

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    President Joe Biden on Friday offered his support to the United Auto Workers, as he addressed their strike aimed at the Big Three auto makers.

    Auto companies have seen record profits because of the “extraordinary skill and sacrifices” of UAW workers, Biden said in a brief speech at the White House.

    “Those record profits have not been shared fairly, in my view, with those workers,” the president added.

    “The companies have made some significant offers, but I believe they should go further to ensure record corporate profits mean record contracts for the UAW,” he also said.

    Biden gave his remarks after about 12,700 workers went on strike early Friday as their union and the Big Three automakers failed to reach an agreement before a contract expired.

    It’s a targeted strike at a Ford Motor 
    F,
    -0.08%

    plant in Michigan, a General Motors 
    GM,
    +0.86%

    plant in Missouri and a Stellantis NV 
    STLA,
    +2.18%

    plant in Ohio.

    The UAW so far has not endorsed Biden’s re-election bid, even as the AFL-CIO and other big unions have lined up behind the Democratic incumbent.

    The presidential race in 2024 could be a rematch of 2020’s contest between Biden and former President Donald Trump, who has won over some union households that historically have backed Democrats like Biden rather than Republicans.

    See: Here are the Republicans running for president

    Biden got more support than Trump from union households in the battleground states of Michigan and Wisconsin in 2020, but Trump got more support from such households in Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to Edison Research exit polls.

    Trump has seized on concerns that the car industry’s shift toward electric vehicles
    CARZ,
    which the Biden administration has promoted, could hurt American workers. “The all Electric Car is a disaster for both the United Auto Workers and the American Consumer,” the former president said Friday in a post on his Truth Social platform.

    On Friday, Biden said he hopes the UAW and car companies “can return to the negotiation table to forge a win-win agreement,” and he said he’s sending two administration officials to Detroit — Julie Su, the acting secretary of labor, and Gene Sperling, a senior adviser.

    GM posted a 2022 net profit of $11.04 billion, up from $10.38 billion in 2021, while Ford recorded a 2022 net profit of $7.62 billion, up from $6.43 billion in the prior year. For Stellantis, the parent company for brands such as Chrysler, Dodge and Jeep, last year’s net profit was $17.83 billion, up from $15.12 billion.

    UAW President Shawn Fain said in a statement after Biden’s speech that union members “agree with Joe Biden when he says ‘record profits mean record contracts.’” 

    Fain also said: “Working people are not afraid. You know who’s afraid? The corporate media is afraid. The White House is afraid. The companies are afraid.”

    Now read: Tesla may be the winner of the Big Three labor woes

    And see: Will the UAW strike push up car prices?

    Plus: UAW strike to have limited impact on Big Three, Fitch says

    Claudia Assis contributed.

     

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  • Household income rose in just 5 states last year. Is your state one of them?

    Household income rose in just 5 states last year. Is your state one of them?

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    American workers are feeling the pinch.

    The median annual household income in the U.S. was $74,755 in 2022, a 0.8% decline from the previous year after adjusting for inflation, according to the latest data from the Census Bureau.

    The decline in income is “disappointing,” said Sharon Parrott, president of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities,…

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  • Serbia and Kosovo leaders hold long-awaited face-to-face talks as the EU seeks to dial down tensions

    Serbia and Kosovo leaders hold long-awaited face-to-face talks as the EU seeks to dial down tensions

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    BRUSSELS — The leaders of Serbia and Kosovo held a long-awaited face-to-face meeting on Thursday in talks aimed aimed at improving their strained relations as calls mount for a change in the Western diplomatic approach toward them amid concern that their tensions could spiral out of control.

    Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić and Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti are in Brussels for talks under the so-called Belgrade-Pristina dialogue process, supervised by European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell.

    The last round of the dialogue in June ended without producing any obvious results. Vučić and Kurti refused to meet in person, and Borrell, who held talks separately with both men, conceded that they have “different interpretations of the causes and also the facts, consequences and solutions.”

    In a post on X, formerly known as Twitter, Borrell wrote that it was time to begin applying the agreement on the path toward normalization “in earnest. Today, we will see if they are ready to take responsibility.” He also posted a picture of the two men in the same room with him.

    Serbia and its former province of Kosovo have been at odds for decades. Their 1998-99 war left more than 10,000 people dead, mostly Kosovo Albanians. Kosovo unilaterally declared independence in 2008 but Belgrade has refused to recognize the move.

    In May, in a dispute over the validity of local elections in the Serbian part of northern Kosovo, Serbs clashed with security forces, including NATO-led KFOR peacekeepers working there, injuring 93 troops.

    Last week, KFOR commander Maj. Gen. Angelo Michele Ristuccia warned that his forces “are living a time frame of constant crisis management.” He said that tensions between Belgrade and Pristina are so high that even “the most insignificant event can create a situation.”

    In August, senior lawmakers from the United States — the other diplomatic power in the process — warned that negotiators aren’t putting enough pressure on Vučić. They said that the West’s current approach shows a “lack of evenhandedness.”

    Vučić, a former ultranationalist who now claims to want to take Serbia into the EU, has maintained close ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin and has refused to impose sanctions on Russia over its war on Ukraine.

    There are widespread fears in the West that Moscow could use Belgrade to reignite ethnic conflicts in the Balkans, which experienced a series of bloody conflicts in the 1990s during the breakup of Yugoslavia, to draw world attention away from the war.

    But at the same time, Kurti — a long-time Kosovo independence activist who spent time in prisons in both Serbia and Kosovo — has frustrated the Europeans and proven difficult for negotiators to work with since he became prime minister in 2021.

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  • CDC recommends updated COVID shots for people 6 months of age and older

    CDC recommends updated COVID shots for people 6 months of age and older

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    The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Tuesday recommended updated COVID-19 vaccines for people 6 months of age and older.

    Director Mandy Cohen late Tuesday backed the findings of CDC advisers, who voted 13-to-1 for approval earlier in the day. The updated vaccines from Moderna Inc.
    MRNA,
    -0.53%

    and Pfizer Inc.
    PFE,
    +0.62%

    -BioNTech
    BNTX,
    -1.97%

    should become available later this week.

    “We have more tools than ever to prevent the worst outcomes from COVID-19,” Cohen said in a statement. “CDC is now recommending updated COVID-19 vaccination for everyone 6 months and older to better protect you and your loved ones.”

    The move comes just one day after the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved the updated shots from Moderna and Pfizer. The FDA approved single-dose vaccines for people 12 and older and authorized emergency use of new shots for children as young as 6 months.

    The CDC recommendations Tuesday include some key changes from the recommendations that previously applied to the bivalent COVID vaccines. People age 65 and older were recommended to get a second bivalent dose, for example, but the CDC is not currently recommending two doses of the new shot for older adults. The CDC said it will monitor epidemiology and vaccine effectiveness to determine if additional doses are needed.

    The recommendations come as the vaccines are transitioning from federal procurement and distribution to the commercial market. The new shots are expected to have list prices of $110 to $130 per dose. But the Affordable Care Act requires insurers to cover most vaccines recommended by the CDC advisory committee at no cost to plan enrollees, and people with Medicare and Medicaid also have no-cost access to the vaccines. 

    The CDC meeting Tuesday addressed some concerns about the accessibility and cost of the vaccines for people without health-insurance coverage. The CDC’s new Bridge Access program will provide free shots to uninsured people within days at retail pharmacies as well as local health centers, the CDC said. The agency had previously said that the free shots might not arrive in retail pharmacies until mid-October. The federal government’s vaccines.gov website will be updated later this week to list Bridge Access program sites, the CDC said.

    Roughly 25 million to 30 million U.S. adults do not have health insurance. About 85% of people without coverage live within 5 miles of a Bridge Access program site, according to CDC data.

    Under the Bridge Access program, CVS Health Corp.
    CVS,
    +2.57%

    will administer doses in stores and Minute Clinics, the CDC said, and Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc.
    WBA,
    +1.35%

    will offer doses in stores and at off-site events that target areas of low access and uptake. Healthcare-services company eTrueNorth is also working with the program to reach lower-access areas without other coverage under the program, the CDC said.

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  • Hillary Clinton is stepping over the White House threshold in yet another role

    Hillary Clinton is stepping over the White House threshold in yet another role

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    WASHINGTON — During her husband’s 1992 presidential campaign, Hillary Clinton observed that “our lives are a mixture of different roles” and said most people are trying to find the right balance.

    “For me, that balance is family, work and service,” she said.

    Clinton juggled those roles — and more — during eight years as first lady in the White House. She’s returning Tuesday for her first public appearance in the building since the Obama years to indulge her love for the arts.

    In her White House years, she was a wife, a mother and the nation’s hostess, but also a wronged spouse, the head of a national health care task force and on the cover of Vogue. In later years, she stepped over the White House threshold as a visiting senator and Cabinet member, but never in the long-sought role of Madam President.

    Early on as first lady, she held a rare news conference where she was grilled about the Clintons’ past real estate dealings, declaring that she had been “rezoned” out of her sphere of privacy.

    The former first lady and current first lady Jill Biden will appear together to announce the recipients of the Praemium Imperiale, an annual global arts prize for lifetime achievement by the Japan Art Association. Both women will deliver remarks.

    Her return visit is likely to be a sentimental one.

    “I have to imagine she’s really looking forward to being back and being back with the Bidens, who she’s been close to for a long time,” said Lisa Caputo, who was Clinton’s White House press secretary.

    Clinton’s ties to the White House bracket her time as first lady.

    Early visits came when she accompanied Bill Clinton to the executive mansion, when he was Arkansas governor from the late 1970s to the early 1990s, for annual receptions for the nation’s governors.

    She was a regular at the White House in her post-first lady roles as a U.S. senator and as secretary of state, a position that came with a permanent seat next to the president at Cabinet meetings.

    Twice she sought the ultimate White House perch, campaigning in 2008 and again in 2016 to become the first woman elected president. She fell short each time, and kept her distance from the White House during the Trump years.

    Ellen Fitzpatrick, emeritus professor of history at the University of New Hampshire, said going back to the White House evokes memories for any former first lady.

    She recalled Jacqueline Kennedy’s trip back with her children years after President John F. Kennedy was assassinated. The former first lady later told President Richard Nixon in a thank you note that a day she had dreaded turned out to be one of the most precious she spent with her kids.

    “I think for Hillary herself, I’m sure it will be quite a moment going back in,” said Fitzpatrick, author of “The Highest Glass Ceiling,” a book about women who run for president.

    Clinton made some good and not-so-good White House memories.

    “My eight years in the White House tested my faith and political beliefs, my marriage and our nation’s Constitution,” she wrote in “Living History,” her memoir. “I became a lightning rod for political and ideological battles waged over America’s future and a magnet for feelings, good or bad, about women’s choices and roles.”

    In his first year in office, President Clinton stood with his wife in the East Room and made her head of a national health care task force to bring health insurance to every American. No first lady had ever been responsible for shaping such major public policy. The work, largely done in secret, inevitably attracted criticism. The plan ultimately died without a vote in Congress.

    In 1994, Clinton donned a pink sweater and fielded questions for more than an hour in the East Room about her financial dealings as part of the Whitewater affair, an Arkansas real estate project the couple had lost money in and that federal authorities were investigating.

    At one point during the news conference, she said, “I’ve always believed in a zone of privacy, and I told a friend the other day that I feel after resisting for a long time that I’ve been rezoned.”

    Another notable White House image of the Clintons came in 1998 after the president’s sexual relationship with intern Monica Lewinsky was exposed. As the family kept plans for a two-week vacation on the Massachusetts island of Martha’s Vineyard, the Clintons walked across the South Lawn to the waiting helicopter with a teenaged Chelsea as a buffer between her parents.

    Hillary Clinton also was among those in the Roosevelt Room at the White House when the president declared to the nation that “I did not have sexual relations with that woman, Miss Lewinsky.” She went on national television and blamed their political problems on a “vast, right-wing conspiracy.”

    Her public approval ratings ticked upward as her marital woes played out in public. She also became the first first lady to grace the cover of Vogue magazine, clad in a long-sleeved black velvet gown and seated on a red couch in the White House Red Room.

    After her husband was acquitted during a Senate impeachment trial in January 1999, she ran for and won a U.S. Senate seat from New York in 2000, their final year in the White House. For a short period, she went about her duties as a freshman lawmaker while closing out her chapter as first lady.

    After Clinton lost the Democratic presidential nomination to then-fellow Sen. Barack Obama in 2008, he persuaded her to become his secretary of state. She again was a regular presence at the White House, with a seat next to Obama at the Cabinet table. She’s prominent in the famous photo of officials crowded into the Situation Room when Osama bin Laden was killed in 2011.

    Tuesday will be a full-circle moment of sorts for Hillary Clinton. She and President Clinton first celebrated the Praemium Imperiale prizes at the White House in 1994. She is the U.S international adviser for the awards.

    Melanne Verveer, who was Hillary Clinton’s chief of staff at the White House, said Clinton’s love for the arts is a lesser-known piece of her biography as a globe-trotting policy wonk and diplomat.

    The White House was “a place of enormous artistic welcoming” under Hillary Clinton, Verveer said, adding that she was keenly interested in the National Endowment for the Arts and the National Endowment for the Humanities, federal agencies whose funding conservatives wanted to cut. She also showcased American sculpture in the first lady’s garden at the White House.

    “It was just a huge engagement on the arts, so I’m not surprised in some ways that the Praemium Imperiale is going to take place at the White House with her being there,” Verveer said.

    Whether she visits or not, Clinton will have an enduring presence at the White House: her portrait as first lady hangs in a hallway on the ground floor.

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  • Hillary Clinton is stepping over the White House threshold in yet another role

    Hillary Clinton is stepping over the White House threshold in yet another role

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    WASHINGTON — During her husband’s 1992 presidential campaign, Hillary Clinton observed that “our lives are a mixture of different roles” and said most people are trying to find the right balance.

    “For me, that balance is family, work and service,” she said.

    Clinton juggled those roles — and more — during eight years as first lady in the White House. She’s returning Tuesday for her first public appearance in the building since the Obama years to indulge her love for the arts.

    In her White House years, she was a wife, a mother and the nation’s hostess, but also a wronged spouse, the head of a national health care task force and on the cover of Vogue. In later years, she stepped over the White House threshold as a visiting senator and Cabinet member, but never in the long-sought role of Madam President.

    Early on as first lady, she held a rare news conference where she was grilled about the Clintons’ past real estate dealings, declaring that she had been “rezoned” out of her sphere of privacy.

    The former first lady and current first lady Jill Biden will appear together to announce the recipients of the Praemium Imperiale, an annual global arts prize for lifetime achievement by the Japan Art Association. Both women will deliver remarks.

    Her return visit is likely to be a sentimental one.

    “I have to imagine she’s really looking forward to being back and being back with the Bidens, who she’s been close to for a long time,” said Lisa Caputo, who was Clinton’s White House press secretary.

    Clinton’s ties to the White House bracket her time as first lady.

    Early visits came when she accompanied Bill Clinton to the executive mansion, when he was Arkansas governor from the late 1970s to the early 1990s, for annual receptions for the nation’s governors.

    She was a regular at the White House in her post-first lady roles as a U.S. senator and as secretary of state, a position that came with a permanent seat next to the president at Cabinet meetings.

    Twice she sought the ultimate White House perch, campaigning in 2008 and again in 2016 to become the first woman elected president. She fell short each time, and kept her distance from the White House during the Trump years.

    Ellen Fitzpatrick, emeritus professor of history at the University of New Hampshire, said going back to the White House evokes memories for any former first lady.

    She recalled Jacqueline Kennedy’s trip back with her children years after President John F. Kennedy was assassinated. The former first lady later told President Richard Nixon in a thank you note that a day she had dreaded turned out to be one of the most precious she spent with her kids.

    “I think for Hillary herself, I’m sure it will be quite a moment going back in,” said Fitzpatrick, author of “The Highest Glass Ceiling,” a book about women who run for president.

    Clinton made some good and not-so-good White House memories.

    “My eight years in the White House tested my faith and political beliefs, my marriage and our nation’s Constitution,” she wrote in “Living History,” her memoir. “I became a lightning rod for political and ideological battles waged over America’s future and a magnet for feelings, good or bad, about women’s choices and roles.”

    In his first year in office, President Clinton stood with his wife in the East Room and made her head of a national health care task force to bring health insurance to every American. No first lady had ever been responsible for shaping such major public policy. The work, largely done in secret, inevitably attracted criticism. The plan ultimately died without a vote in Congress.

    In 1994, Clinton donned a pink sweater and fielded questions for more than an hour in the East Room about her financial dealings as part of the Whitewater affair, an Arkansas real estate project the couple had lost money in and that federal authorities were investigating.

    At one point during the news conference, she said, “I’ve always believed in a zone of privacy, and I told a friend the other day that I feel after resisting for a long time that I’ve been rezoned.”

    Another notable White House image of the Clintons came in 1998 after the president’s sexual relationship with intern Monica Lewinsky was exposed. As the family kept plans for a two-week vacation on the Massachusetts island of Martha’s Vineyard, the Clintons walked across the South Lawn to the waiting helicopter with a teenaged Chelsea as a buffer between her parents.

    Hillary Clinton also was among those in the Roosevelt Room at the White House when the president declared to the nation that “I did not have sexual relations with that woman, Miss Lewinsky.” She went on national television and blamed their political problems on a “vast, right-wing conspiracy.”

    Her public approval ratings ticked upward as her marital woes played out in public. She also became the first first lady to grace the cover of Vogue magazine, clad in a long-sleeved black velvet gown and seated on a red couch in the White House Red Room.

    After her husband was acquitted during a Senate impeachment trial in January 1999, she ran for and won a U.S. Senate seat from New York in 2000, their final year in the White House. For a short period, she went about her duties as a freshman lawmaker while closing out her chapter as first lady.

    After Clinton lost the Democratic presidential nomination to then-fellow Sen. Barack Obama in 2008, he persuaded her to become his secretary of state. She again was a regular presence at the White House, with a seat next to Obama at the Cabinet table. She’s prominent in the famous photo of officials crowded into the Situation Room when Osama bin Laden was killed in 2011.

    Tuesday will be a full-circle moment of sorts for Hillary Clinton. She and President Clinton first celebrated the Praemium Imperiale prizes at the White House in 1994. She is the U.S international adviser for the awards.

    Melanne Verveer, who was Hillary Clinton’s chief of staff at the White House, said Clinton’s love for the arts is a lesser-known piece of her biography as a globe-trotting policy wonk and diplomat.

    The White House was “a place of enormous artistic welcoming” under Hillary Clinton, Verveer said, adding that she was keenly interested in the National Endowment for the Arts and the National Endowment for the Humanities, federal agencies whose funding conservatives wanted to cut. She also showcased American sculpture in the first lady’s garden at the White House.

    “It was just a huge engagement on the arts, so I’m not surprised in some ways that the Praemium Imperiale is going to take place at the White House with her being there,” Verveer said.

    Whether she visits or not, Clinton will have an enduring presence at the White House: her portrait as first lady hangs in a hallway on the ground floor.

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  • Tech’s wild week: How Apple, Google, AI, Arm’s mega IPO could set the agenda for years

    Tech’s wild week: How Apple, Google, AI, Arm’s mega IPO could set the agenda for years

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    The second week of September, as in the NFL, marks a kickoff of sorts for the tech year.

    Headlined by Apple Inc.’s
    AAPL,
    +0.72%

    seminal iPhone event on the second Tuesday of the month at Apple Park, and anchored by Salesforce Inc.’s
    CRM,
    +0.33%

    wildly popular Dreamforce conference up the road in San Francisco, these several days set a tempo as well as establish a road map for the industry over the next 12 months. They also open the floodgates on tech conference season, with shows stacked up over the next several weeks for Facebook parent Meta Platforms Inc.
    META,
    +3.33%
    ,
    Microsoft Corp.
    MSFT,
    +1.21%
    ,
    and Oracle Corp.
    ORCL,
    +0.32%
    .

    Oh, and there’s that initial public offering from Arm Holdings Plc, the chip designer owned by SoftBank Group Corp.
    9984,
    +3.86%

    that is expected to value Arm at $50 billion to $54.5 billion on a fully diluted basis. Another IPO candidate, delivery startup Instacart, also plans a public offering that would value it at $7.5 billion. Both deals could jump-start what has been a somnolent tech IPO market the past few years.

    For that reason alone, this jam-packed tech week might hold even more import, and consequences, than previous years. A confluence of legal tussles, macroeconomic conditions, a trade war with China, and regulatory bluster have raised the stakes.

    “It’s a tale of two cities with this week’s events highlighting both the issues and opportunities in tech,” Silicon Valley analyst Maribel Lopez said in an interview, assessing the week. “Arm’s IPO showcases the strength of tech and AI at a time when the AI forum and Google-DoJ shine a light on the concern that a few companies are wielding tremendous power for the future of the world.”

    Consider: Hours before Apple is expected to unveil a new crop of iPhones more noteworthy for pricing than features, Alphabet Inc.’s
    GOOGL,
    +0.51%

    GOOG,
    +0.47%

    Google faces off with the Justice Department in a federal court in Washington, D.C.

    Justice Department officials argue that Google illegally leveraged agreements with phone makers such as Apple and Samsung Electronics Co.
    005930,
    +0.71%

     and with internet browsers like Mozilla to be the default search engine for their customers, thus preventing smaller rivals from gaining access to that business.

    “This is a backwards-looking case at a time of unprecedented innovation, including breakthroughs in AI, new apps and new services, all of which are creating more competition and more options for people than ever before,” Google General Counsel Kent Walker said in a statement.

    The following day, Wednesday, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., convenes an all-star panel of CEOs from Meta, Microsoft, Google, OpenAI and Palantir Technologies Inc.
    PLTR,
    +4.82%
    .

    As lawmakers ruminate on how to harness AI responsibly, bipartisan legislation is in the works. Sens. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., and Josh Hawley, R-Mo., are among those crafting a bill.

    Even Apple and Salesforce aren’t immune from recent events: Apple has endured a relatively rough patch of disappointing (for them) revenue and iPhone sales while balancing risk/reward with its huge investment in China, and Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff has threatened to relocate Dreamforce to Las Vegas after more than two decades in his hometown of San Francisco if drug use and homelessness disrupt this year’s event.

    The most pressing concern, when all is said and done, is AI — which hovers like the Death Star over the tech landscape.

    “The biggest concern is the forum is behind closed doors, which could lead to regulatory capture, where dominant players in the industry help influence the regulations being imposed,” Kimberlee Josephson, associate professor of business administration at Lebanon Valley College (Pa.), said in an interview. “It’s almost as if it puts them in the hot while giving them a seat at the table at the same time.”

    “At the very least, it sends the signal that something is being done,” she said. “Antitrust cases are so subjective. What constitutes barriers to entry? DoJ adds a level of seriousness.”

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  • Apple Stock Is Rising. Tech Names From Tesla to Nvidia Can Breathe a Sigh of Relief.

    Apple Stock Is Rising. Tech Names From Tesla to Nvidia Can Breathe a Sigh of Relief.

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    The fortunes of


    Apple


    the world’s largest public company, have a tendency to lead around much of the rest of the stock market. After the tech giant’s woes contributed to widespread declines last week, investors can now breath…

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  • House committee chairman says Sen. Tuberville is ‘paralyzing’ the Pentagon by blocking promotions

    House committee chairman says Sen. Tuberville is ‘paralyzing’ the Pentagon by blocking promotions

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    The chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee is slamming a fellow Republican in the Senate for waging an unprecedented attempt to change Pentagon abortion policy by holding up hundreds of military nominations and promotions

    ByThe Associated Press

    September 10, 2023, 2:06 PM

    FILE – Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul, R-Texas, speaks during a discussion about the terrorist attack at Hamid Karzai International Airport’s Abbey Gate during a House Foreign Affairs Committee roundtable, on Capitol Hill, Tuesday, Aug. 29, 2023, in Washington. McCaul said on CNN’s “State of the Union” on Sunday, Sept. 10, that Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville “is paralyzing the Department of Defense,” as Tuberville wages an unprecedented attempt to change Pentagon abortion policy by holding up hundreds of military nominations and promotions. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon, File)

    The Associated Press

    WASHINGTON — The chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee is slamming a fellow Republican in the Senate for waging an unprecedented attempt to change Pentagon abortion policy by holding up hundreds of military nominations and promotions.

    Rep. Michael McCaul, R-Texas, told CNN’s “State of the Union” on Sunday that Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville is “paralyzing the Department of Defense.”

    “The idea that one man in the Senate can hold this up for months, I understand maybe promotions, but nominations,” McCaul said. He added, “I think that is a national security problem and a national security issue. And I really wish he would reconsider this.”

    Tuberville’s move has forced less experienced leaders into top jobs and raised concerns at the Pentagon about military readiness. Defense officials say Tuberville is jeopardizing American national security. Senators in both parties, including Republican leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, also have criticized Tuberville.

    Tuberville has refused to budge, saying will not drop the holds unless majority Democrats allow a vote on the policy. Democrats argue that a vote o every nominee could tie up the Senate floor for months, and they do not want to give in to Tuberville’s demands and encourage similar blockades of nominees in the future.

    McCaul said on CNN that the House would be tackling the issue of abortion in the military as part of a sweeping defense spending bill making its way through Congress. In the meantime, he said, “To hold up the top brass from being promoted and lower brass, I think is paralyzing our Department of Defense.”

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  • Canopy Growth stock soars on heavy volume again, amid cannabis investor optimism over possible favorable legislation

    Canopy Growth stock soars on heavy volume again, amid cannabis investor optimism over possible favorable legislation

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    Shares of Canopy Growth Corp.
    CGC,
    +22.61%

    shot up 21.7% toward a near four-month high in very active afternoon trading, putting them on track for the fifth double-digit percentage gain in seven sessions. The stock has rocketed 130% over the past seven session. Trading volume was 107.7 million shares as of Friday afternoon, to mark the fourth 100+-million-share volume day in the past six sessions, while the average volume over the past 30 days was about 36.3 million shares. The stock’s surge comes as Senate Banking Committee chair Sherrod Brown said Wednesday that there is “an agreement imminent” on the SAFE Banking Act, according to a Politico report, which could make it easier for the financial industry to work with cannabis companies. Among other cannabis stocks, shares of Tilray Brands Inc.
    TLRY,
    +2.03%

    gained 2.4%, of Cronos Group Inc. climbed 6.0% and of Aurora Cannabis Inc.
    ACB,
    +14.75%

    jumped 12.5%. The AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF
    MSOS,
    +3.88%

    rose 7.5% on volume of 13.9 million shares, compared with the full-day average of about 5.6 million shares, while the S&P 500
    SPX,
    +0.14%

    slipped 0.1%. The cannabis ETF has soared 77% over the past seven sessions.

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  • White House Situation Room gets renovated — here’s what a $50 million makeover looks like

    White House Situation Room gets renovated — here’s what a $50 million makeover looks like

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    A storied part of the White House complex — the Situation Room — has emerged from a $50 million makeover, with President Joe Biden taking part in a ribbon-cutting ceremony earlier this week to mark the occasion.

    The White House Situation Room is actually a highly secure complex of rooms on the West Wing’s ground floor, including a reception area, a main conference room known as the “JFK room,” a smaller conference room, breakout rooms and a 24-7 operations center called the “watch floor.”

    The operations room is shown in the photo above, while the main conference room is shown in the photo below.

    The main conference room for the White House Situation Room is shown here.


    White House handout

    Biden shared a video on Friday that shows the ribbon-cutting ceremony and his tour of the revamped facility, writing in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter, that it’s “incredible.”

    The renovation involved digging five feet underground to make more room and install cutting-edge technology allowing White House officials to bring together intelligence from different agencies with the push of a few buttons. The goal is to never need a complete renovation again, as now panels can be removed and updated and new technology swapped in.

    The Situation Room’s yearlong renovation came up in July when cocaine was found in a heavily traveled part of West Wing. Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, criticized what he described as “questionable reporting” on the room’s connection to the incident.

    “The Situation Room is not in use and has not been in use for months because it is currently under construction.  We are using an alternate Situation Room in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building,” Sullivan told reporters in July. “There was no issue with the Situation Room relative to this. “

    The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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  • Here’s why Wall Street may be overreacting about Apple’s China’s challenges

    Here’s why Wall Street may be overreacting about Apple’s China’s challenges

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    Apple Inc. shares sold off for the second session in a row Thursday amid swirling concerns about the company’s China business, but some analysts say those fears may be overblown.

    The Wall Street Journal reported earlier this week that China was banning government officials from using iPhones for work purposes, while Bloomberg News reported that the ban could ultimately extend to government-backed agencies and state companies. The question for investors is whether the issue will be limited to state-affiliated employees in…

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  • Fed’s Williams says monetary policy is in a ‘good place,’ recession talk ‘has vanished’

    Fed’s Williams says monetary policy is in a ‘good place,’ recession talk ‘has vanished’

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    New York Fed President John Williams on Thursday sounded content with the current level of interest rates, but said he will be watching data closely to make sure the level of rates is high enough to keep inflation moving down.

    “We’ve done a lot,” Williams said during a discussion at a conference sponsored by Bloomberg News.

    “Right now, we’ve…

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  • In Southeast Asia, Harris says ‘we have to see the future’

    In Southeast Asia, Harris says ‘we have to see the future’

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    JAKARTA, Indonesia — It took more than a day of flying, including two refueling stops, for Vice President Kamala Harris to reach this year’s summit of Southeast Asian countries. And once she arrived, she had less than eight minutes of public speaking time during two meetings.

    But in Jakarta’s cavernous convention center, adorned with billowing flowers and tropical plants for the occasion, Harris saw an opportunity to shape the future of United States foreign policy.

    In an interview with The Associated Press, the vice president said that Washington must “pay attention to 10, 20, 30 years down the line, and what we are developing now that will be to the benefit of our country then.”

    For her, that means working in Southeast Asia. Two-thirds of its population is under 35 years old. It’s the fourth-largest market for U.S. exports. One-third of global shipping travels through the South China Sea.

    “Think about it,” Harris said.

    This was her third trip to Southeast Asia since taking office — Harris heads back to Washington on Thursday — and she’s visited more countries here than any other region. It’s a sprawling constellation of nations, many of them eager for the personal touch of an American leader, and Harris has spent the past few years making the rounds.

    Although addressing migration from Central America was the original task in Harris’ foreign policy portfolio, her more recent travels have put her at the center of White House efforts to bolster ties in Asia as a counterbalance to China. It’s an international parallel to her more prominent role in domestic politics, where she’s been taking the lead on core Democratic issues such as abortion rights in the upcoming election.

    At home and abroad, progress can be slow or hard to measure. Harris’ approval ratings remain underwater, and her announcements in Southeast Asia tend to be counted in the millions of dollars rather than the billions. But she described her work in the region as something that will pay dividends over time as she gets to know its leaders.

    “The strongest relationships will be based on consistency, on communication, on trust, and the ability to work together and to grow the sense of connection,” she said.

    Jake Sullivan, President Joe Biden’s national security adviser, said “many of our best successes in the region were made possible thanks to her diplomacy,” crediting Harris with helping to “move the ball forward on some of our top priorities.”

    “In our administration, she has been a strong advocate for stepping up our engagement in Southeast Asia — and she’s put in the air miles to prove that — in recognition that our work there is critical to our own security and economic growth,” Sullivan said.

    Some analysts believe China maintains an edge in the region, and the Australia-based Lowy Institute issued a report earlier this year concluding that Beijing was still gaining ground in recent years.

    However, Harris delivered a series of messages at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations that were intended to demonstrate American commitment despite Biden’s absence from the summit.

    “The American people have a profound stake in the future of the Indo-Pacific,” she said during one meeting. “We share a historic bond and common values with many of the people and nations here.”

    Harris also paid tribute to ASEAN as an organization, despite growing doubts about its effectiveness for regional diplomacy.

    “The fact that so many leaders are convening in this one place at the same time to address some of the biggest challenges facing our world is a sign of strength of both the commitment that each nation has to the coalition and the potential for collaboration,” she told the AP.

    Others are less hopeful.

    Dinna Prapto Raharja, a Jakarta-based analyst and professor on international relations, said ASEAN is being divided by competition between the U.S. and China, with some countries seeking to bolster their economies through closer relations with one or the other.

    “I don’t see solidarity at this moment, given the rivalry,” she said. “Everybody works their own way.”

    Harris’ travel to Southeast Asia began in her first year in office, when she visited Singapore and Vietnam, but the trip almost didn’t happen.

    Phil Gordon, a national security adviser to Harris, said there was talk of canceling because the administration was in the midst of a chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan.

    “She personally insisted that we can do more than one thing at a time,” Gordon said. “She didn’t want to pull the plug on our commitment to Southeast Asia.”

    During the trip, she repeatedly criticized China for trying to control access to the South China Sea, at one point describing the behavior as “bullying.”

    “She didn’t knock it out of the park. It’s clear she was new to the issues. But she’s put in the work,” said Gregory B. Poling, who directs the Southeast Asia program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

    He described Harris as “an effective avatar for the administration,” an important position when the president can only be in so many places at once.

    David Rothkopf, a foreign policy writer who worked on trade issues under former President Bill Clinton and has met with Harris, said there’s “always a period of adjustment” for an incoming administration.

    “She was new to the team,” he said. “And now she’s seen as part of the team.”

    It’s a role that she’s played frequently. In addition to skipping this year’s ASEAN summit, Biden didn’t attend the 2022 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation conference in Thailand because it conflicted with his granddaughter’s wedding.

    Harris went in his place, and she also stopped in the Philippines, a U.S. treaty ally where she’s fostered a close relationship with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.

    During the visit, Harris became the highest-ranking U.S. official to go to Palawan, an island adjacent to the South China Sea. She toured a Philippine coast guard boat and spoke with members of a local fishing community.

    Republicans tried to turn it into an unflattering viral moment, clipping a video to portray her as awkwardly as possible as she greeted people with buckets of fish on their head.

    But to her office, it’s an example of how Harris is willing to show up places where others don’t. She frequently participates in events outside the hermetic bubble of international summits or government events.

    In Vietnam, she met with activists working on gay rights and climate change. In Thailand, she sat down with environmental advocates and clean energy entrepreneurs.

    “We have to see the future and think about where it’s going,” Harris told the AP, “and then measure ourselves against that in terms of what we do today.”

    ___

    Associated Press writer Edna Tarigan contributed to this report.

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  • Dominion Sells Natural Gas Utilities to Enbridge for $9.4 Billion

    Dominion Sells Natural Gas Utilities to Enbridge for $9.4 Billion

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    Dominion Sells Natural Gas Utilities to Enbridge for $9.4 Billion

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  • FTC antitrust suit against Amazon coming in September: report

    FTC antitrust suit against Amazon coming in September: report

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    The Federal Trade Commission is set to file an antitrust lawsuit against Amazon.com Inc.
    AMZN,
    -0.62%

    in September after the two sides could not reach a settlement over antitrust claims, according to a Wall Street Journal report, citing people familiar with the matter. Members of Amazon’s legal team held a video call with FTC officials on Aug. 15 during a so-called last-rites meeting, but were unable to agree on concessions, the report said. Amazon declined comment on the report.

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  • Chinese property developer stocks jump on easing mortgage policy

    Chinese property developer stocks jump on easing mortgage policy

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    Shares of Chinese property developers rose sharply Monday, as more major Chinese cities said over the weekend that they would ease mortgage policies in a bid to shore up the real-estate sector.

    The Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index rose 8.2%. Hong Kong-listed Longfor Group Holdings
    960,
    +8.11%

    climbed 10% and Seazen Group
    1030,
    +18.30%

    jumped 17%. Shanghai-Listed Gemdale
    600383,
    +1.63%

    added 4.1% and China Vanke
    000002,
    -0.07%

    gained 1.4%.

    Major Chinese cities across the country, including Beijing and Shanghai, lowered mortgage requirements for some home buyers late last week, lowering the bar for home purchases.

    “This nationwide policy measure marks a significant step in stimulating the property sector, as top policymakers become increasingly worried about the collapse of the property sector, the downward spiral, and a rising number of credit risk events among major developers and financial institutions since mid-August,” Nomura analysts said in a note.

    Separately, news reports over the weekend saying that property giant Country Garden Holdings
    2007,
    +14.61%

    received creditor approval to extend a bond also lifted the mood and supported the company’s shares. Country Garden shares were last up 9.0% at 0.97 Hong Kong dollars (12 U.S. cents).

    Year to date, Country Garden’s stock has slumped 64% after the company posted its worst loss since going public 16 years ago and missed $22.5 million in interest payments on its dollar bonds in August.

    Despite Chinese authorities’ supportive policies and Country Garden’s bond extension, some analysts warned that the extension could just be a near-term reprieve.

    “With the lack of an eventual resolution [for Country Garden],” headwinds linger for the Chinese property sector, IG Asia analysts said in a note.

    “Persistent earnings weakness will no doubt drive the sector’s leverage higher,” said S&P Global Ratings credit ratings analyst Oscar Chung.

    S&P believes industry leaders and real-estate companies with a diverse business mix such as rental and service incomes can better withstand declining development margins.

    Write to Bingyan Wang at bingyan.wang@wsj.com

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  • Congress returns to face shutdown fears — here’s what it means for markets

    Congress returns to face shutdown fears — here’s what it means for markets

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    U.S. lawmakers are due to get back to work Tuesday on Capitol Hill, and there are growing expectations that one fruit of their labors will be a partial government shutdown.

    “My guess is that we will have a lot of screaming and shouting, and we’ll end up shutting down the government, and a lot of people will be inconvenienced or hurt as a result of doing that, but we’ll do it,” said Republican Sen. Mitt Romney of Utah in an interview with a TV station in his home state.

    “And by the way, we’ll shut down government, and then we’ll open it. It’s not like that means that we win. No, no. We just shut it down to show that we’re fighting and making noise.”

    Investors should view the shutdown as largely noise, according to a number of analysts in Washington, D.C., who track lawmakers’ moves for Wall Street.

    “The stakes here are significantly lower than they were back in June, when we were facing default,” said Ed Mills, Washington policy analyst for Raymond James, referring to lawmakers’ efforts to reach a deal on raising the U.S. debt ceiling in order to avoid a market-shaking default.

    “For the most part, this is a 1 or 2 on a scale of 1 to 10 in terms of concern,” Mills told MarketWatch, adding that a U.S. default, on the other hand, would have registered as a 10 on that scale.

    There have been six government shutdowns since 1978 that lasted five days or more, and the S&P 500 stock index
    SPX
    gained in the four most recent shutdowns. Brian Gardner, chief Washington policy strategist at Stifel, emphasized that history in a note to clients.

    “Headlines regarding a potential budget impasse will grow and there could be a whiff of panic in the air, but investors should take all of this in stride. Markets tend to ignore the impact of a government shutdown,” Gardner wrote, as he offered the chart shown below.

    There have been six shutdowns since 1978 that lasted five days or more. Here’s how stocks handled them.


    Stifel

    From MarketWatch’s archives (September 2021): Here’s how the stock market has performed in past government shutdowns

    And from January 2019: The latest government shutdown is ending, after becoming the longest on record — by a wide margin

    How government shutdowns can hurt

    Stifel’s Gardner said that while past shutdowns suggest that investors should not panic, there still is some damage.

    “There will be extensive media coverage of closed entrances at national parks and other government facilities.  Government salaries will not be paid on time which is, certainly, a hardship for some families,” he wrote. At the same time, he emphasized that “much of the country will operate as usual,” including the military
    ITA
    and air traffic controllers — and missed paychecks will come through once the shutdown ends.

    From MarketWatch’s archives (January 2019): How furloughed federal workers can rebuild their finances after the shutdown

    “From a market perspective, the biggest concern relating to a government shutdown is that it could delay official government data reports at a pivotal time for the Federal Reserve,” said BTIG’s Issac Boltansky and Isabel Bandoroff in a note.

    Related: Jackson Hole recap: Fed rate hikes likely on hold for ‘several meetings’

    The BTIG analysts said they expect a shutdown will occur but it should be a “nonevent for markets” overall, because it “would have no impact on debt payments and any missed activity would be settled on the other side of reopening.”

    There could be a greater-than-anticipated impact on stocks
    DJIA

    COMP
    if the shutdown lasts for a longer time than expected, and if the deal to end the shutdown features unexpectedly large cuts to spending along with significant repeals of Democrats’ Inflation Reduction Act, according to Mills, the Raymond James analyst.

    “The most likely scenario is that it’s days, not weeks,” he said, regarding the length of any shutdown. He also noted it could hit consumer confidence and disrupt the initial-public-offering process for some companies.

    What’s likely to happen on Capitol Hill

    Only one chamber of Congress is returning to Washington on Tuesday, the day following Labor Day, after an August recess — the Senate. The House of Representatives is slated to resume its work on Capitol Hill a week later, on Sept. 12.

    Ahead of their returns, the Biden White House’s budget office has pushed for passage of a short-term funding measure to avoid a partial federal government shutdown on Oct. 1, when the government’s 2024 fiscal year starts.

    Such a measure is known as a continuing resolution, or CR, and they’re often used as the House and Senate work to agree on a dozen appropriations bills that would fund government operations for a full fiscal year.

    The debt-ceiling deal negotiated between House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and President Joe Biden set spending levels over the next two years, keeping nonmilitary spending for 2024 the same as 2023 levels. But House Republicans have adopted spending targets for the coming fiscal year at levels below the McCarthy-Biden agreement.

    McCarthy has raised the idea of a short-term funding bill with his fellow Republicans.

    “The thing that Kevin McCarthy is trying to tell his caucus is that we probably need to have a short-term CR, so that the House can finish its work on appropriations bills and establish the best negotiating position,” Mills said.

    The House Freedom Caucus, a hardline GOP group known for causing headaches for the chamber’s leaders, has voiced concerns. It said in an Aug. 21 statement that its members want to rein in outlays and will oppose any spending measure that doesn’t include a House-passed bill focused on security at the U.S. southern border. In addition, the group said any spending measure must address the “unprecedented weaponization” of the Justice Department and the FBI, as well as end “woke policies in the Pentagon.”

    The most likely path forward is the GOP-run House passes a short-term funding measure that incorporates House Freedom Caucus goals, and then there’s a showdown with the Democratic-controlled Senate over those policy riders, with a short-lived shutdown potentially taking place, Mills said.

    The Raymond James analyst said the most likely deal is a budget that’s in line with what was negotiated as part of the debt-limit deal. He also expects supplemental measures that provide relief for areas hit by Hurricane Idalia and the Maui wildfires, as well as some funding for Ukraine as it continues its fight against Russia’s invasion.

    “For investors, they have seen McCarthy go up to the brink, go through a tough situation and be able to pull a rabbit out of it,” Mills said, referring to his January battle to become House speaker and the spring’s debt-limit talks. And they’ve “gone through government shutdowns in the past, mostly with very minimal market reaction,” he added.

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