ReportWire

Tag: Government finance

  • Small businesses are paying 100%+ of profits to Uncle Sam after tax-law change

    Small businesses are paying 100%+ of profits to Uncle Sam after tax-law change

    [ad_1]

    Small businesses in sectors like software and manufacturing are panicking over the expiration of a critical tax deduction that they say could lead to mass layoffs and business closures, unless Congress acts quickly to amend the law.

    “This is a life-and-death scenario for small software companies,” Michelle Hansen, co-founder of the geocoding company Geocodio, told MarketWatch.

    The tax change that Hansen and other software executives are taking issue with was signed into law by President Trump in 2017, as part of a larger tax overhaul that slashed the top corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%.

    But in order to satisfy Senate budget rules and pass the law with only Republican votes, the bill could not increase the budget deficit over a 10-year window.

    So lawmakers included a provision that, beginning in 2022, drastically reduced how much research-and-development spending a business could deduct from their annual revenue to determine taxable income.

    The change penalizes certain industries like software and information technology — where engineer salaries are often classified as R&D expenses — as well as manufacturing and pharmaceuticals
    IHE.

    IntervalZero CEO Jeff Hibbard, whose Massachusetts-based company designs and sells software for installation on precision machines like semiconductor manufacturers, told MarketWatch that he has had to tap into company savings for the past several years in order to avoid laying off engineers.

    He said that his firm brings in about $9 million in revenue annually with expenses of $8 million — but 60% of those expenses come in the form of engineer salaries, which can only be deducted from taxable income over a five-year period because the IRS treats it as R&D.

    He said that after taxes consumed all his profits in 2022, he had to pay an additional $800,000 to Uncle Sam, and an additional $600,000 for the 2023 tax year.

    “We’ve had to do a hiring freeze and postpone projects” in a cutthroat industry where technology progresses rapidly, Hibbard said. “We’ve been in existence for 15 years. For the first 14, we always hired additional people. Now we have a hiring and salary freeze.”

    The House of Representatives voted last week 357-70 to restore full expensing for R&D as part of a $79 billion tax package that boosted the child tax credit and extended other business tax breaks.

    The bill now heads to the Senate, which already has its hands full debating immigration and national-security issues, and analysts say election-year politics could thwart its passage in 2024.

    Henrietta Treyz, director of economic-policy research at Veda Partners, gave just a 10% chance of the bill passing the Senate in a recent note to clients.

    “This year’s effort to pass a tax package has been more robust than the effort we saw in 2022 and 2023,” she wrote. Treyz added, however, that “the competing need to pass border reform and Ukraine/Israel aid, and general dysfunction in Washington keep us pessimistic that we’ll see a bipartisan economic-stimulus package come out of Congress this year.”

     On top of Republicans not wanting to give President Joe Biden a victory that would provide tax relief for businesses and families, Senate Republicans could decide to drag their feet on the bill in the hope that they’ll retake the chamber next year and can play a bigger role in the process, according to Owen Tedford, policy analyst at Beacon Policy Advisors.

    “The critical member to watch is Senator Mike Crapo [of Idaho], the top Republican on the Senate Finance Committee,” Tedford wrote. “Crapo has not outright opposed the bill but has raised policy concerns and has expressed a desire to have a chance to amend it.” 

    Political considerations may be dictating the bill’s fate in Washington — but some business owners fear they don’t have the wherewithal to wait until next year for the problem to be fixed.

    Benjamin Bengfort, co-founder and CEO of Iowa-based software firm Rotational Labs, told MarketWatch that he had to lay off workers last year after his 2022 tax bill rose by 438%.

    He noted that even demand for his products has taken a hit because of the change in the law, because his services can count as an R&D expense for his customers, too.

    “So it is [between] a rock and a hard place for us, no matter how you look at it,” Bengfort said. “This is an existential threat for software engineering companies.”

    Andrew Keshner contributed.

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • Mark Zuckerberg could pay millions to the IRS on Meta dividends. He still might be getting ‘a major break’.

    Mark Zuckerberg could pay millions to the IRS on Meta dividends. He still might be getting ‘a major break’.

    [ad_1]

    Mark Zuckerberg delighted Meta shareholders and Wall Street this week with news of the social media giant’s first-ever dividend.

    The IRS may also be happy, now that it’s staring at millions in taxes on the Meta stock dividends bound for Zuckerberg’s portfolio.

    Zuckerberg, the CEO of Meta Platforms Inc.
    META,
    +20.32%
    ,
    is poised to make $700 million in dividends yearly. He owns nearly 350 million shares, according to FactSet, and the company will start paying a quarterly dividend of 50 cents a share.

    That would yield nearly $167 million in federal taxes yearly, after a qualified-dividend tax of 20% and another 3.8% tax on the investment returns of rich households, two accounting experts said.

    California income taxes of 13.3% on the dividends could cost Zuckerberg another $93.1 million, said Andrew Belnap, an accounting professor at the University of Texas at Austin’s McCombs School of Business.

    All in, that’s a combined $259.7 million in federal and state taxes annually on the Meta dividends, Belnap estimated.

    For context, U.S. taxpayers reported over $285 billion in qualified-dividend income to the IRS though mid-November 2023, according to agency statistics. Nearly 30 million tax returns reported qualified dividends through that time.

    Meta said it plans a quarterly cash dividend going forward, with the first such payment in March.

    Meta shares soared 20.5% on Friday, ending with a record-high close of $474.99. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    S&P 500
    SPX
    and Nasdaq Composite
    COMP
    all closed higher Friday.

    ‘Zuck is getting a major break’

    Meta announced the dividend payment in its earnings results Thursday, on the same week that Americans began filing their income taxes.

    A look at Zuckerberg’s dividends and their tax implications offer a peek at the debate about the varying ways wages and wealth are taxed.

    “Zuck is getting a major break,” said Andrew Schmidt, an accounting professor at North Carolina State University’s Poole School of Management who also crunched the numbers for MarketWatch.

    Approximately $167 million “seems like a high tax bill,” he said. But if Zuckerberg received the $700 million as a straight salary, Schmidt estimated he’d be looking at a roughly $259 million tax bill on the wages after they were taxed at the top marginal rate of 37%.

    Federal income tax brackets run from 10% to 37%.

    Meanwhile, the IRS taxes qualified dividends and capital gains at 0%, 15% and 20%, depending on income and household status. The net investment income tax adds another 3.8% for individuals making at least $200,000 or married couples worth $250,000.

    For federal and state taxes on the Meta dividends, Zuckerberg would face a combined rate of 37.1%, Belnap noted. “His tax rate on this is actually fairly high,” he said.

    The gap in tax rates on income derived from wages and investments “has been a big criticism with U.S. tax policy,” Schmidt said, especially as lawmakers look for ways to come up with more tax revenue.

    Regular retail investors enjoy the same preferential rates on capital gains and dividends as the top 1% of taxpayers, Schmidt added. The issue is that those dividends and stock profits are a smaller part of their income while salaries, taxed at higher rates, are a bigger proportion.

    Belnap noted that California’s state tax rules don’t provide special treatment to dividends.

    Read also: Where Trump, Biden and Haley stand on capital gains, the child tax credit and other key tax questions

    Zuckerberg received a $1 base salary in 2022, a figure that hasn’t changed in several years. He is now worth $142 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, making him the fifth-richest person in the world.

    Meta did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

    Taxes on the Meta dividends will not be something Zuckerberg, or any Meta shareholders big or small, need to deal with until next year’s tax season, Belnap and Schmidt observed.

    But as taxpayers amass their 1099-DIV forms on dividend income, IRS figures show that it’s mostly upper-echelon taxpayers reaping the rewards on the preferential rates for qualified dividends.

    Households worth at least $1 million accounted for 40% of the approximate $285.3 billion in qualified dividends reported through mid-November, according to agency figures.

    For less affluent investors, “it’s usually a nice supplement, but I’d say very few people are living off dividends,” Belnap said.

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • China’s debt outlook cut to negative by Moody’s

    China’s debt outlook cut to negative by Moody’s

    [ad_1]

    Moody’s Investors Service on Tuesday cut the outlook on China’s debt to negative from stable citing expectations that the national government will have to step in to rescue regional and local governments.

    Moody’s kept China’s long-term rating at A1.

    “The change to a negative outlook reflects rising evidence that financial support will be provided by the government and wider public sector to financially-stressed regional and local governments and state-owned enterprises, posing broad downside risks to China’s fiscal, economic and institutional strength,” said the note from the rating agency, which last month cut the outlook on the U.S.

    China’s property troubles mean that regional and local governments face a loss of land sale revenue, which accounted for 37% of their revenue in 2022 outside of central government transfers. Moody’s says regions that relied most heavily on land sales won’t be able to offset that revenue loss from other sources.

    Moody’s estimates one-third of state-owned enterprises debt — some 40% of GDP — has an interest coverage below 1, which indicates weak debt sustainability. “While not all [state-owned enterprises] are likely to need direct government support, even a moderate proportion doing so over the medium term would represent a significant crystallization of contingent liabilities for the sovereign, increasing the costs of financial support and diminishing fiscal strength,” said Moody’s.

    In a rough day for Chinese stocks, the Hang Seng
    HK:HSI
    fell 1.9%, and the Shanghai Composite
    CN:SHCOMP
    dropped 1.7%.

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • China’s Colossal Hidden-Debt Problem Is Coming to a Head

    China’s Colossal Hidden-Debt Problem Is Coming to a Head

    [ad_1]

    China’s Colossal Hidden-Debt Problem Is Coming to a Head

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • The Surprise Bill Coming to Those Who Underpay Their Taxes

    The Surprise Bill Coming to Those Who Underpay Their Taxes

    [ad_1]

    Failing to keep up with tax payments now could lead to an expensive surprise come next spring. 

    As of Oct. 1, the Internal Revenue Service is charging 8% interest on estimated tax underpayments, up from 3% two years ago. The increase is one of the many effects of rising interest rates

    Copyright ©2023 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • Congress returns to face big to-do list: Israel and Ukraine aid, possible border or tax deals, and more

    Congress returns to face big to-do list: Israel and Ukraine aid, possible border or tax deals, and more

    [ad_1]

    Both the House and Senate are due to get back to work this week after their Thanksgiving break, and lawmakers have a lot on their plates.

    A divided Washington put off the threat of a partial government shutdown until mid-January by enacting a short-term spending bill in mid-November, but the measure didn’t address President Joe Biden’s $106 billion funding request that includes wartime aid for Israel and Ukraine.

    So…

    Master your money.

    Subscribe to MarketWatch.

    Get this article and all of MarketWatch.

    Access from any device. Anywhere. Anytime.


    Subscribe Now

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • Would you lend your mom your fortune? Estate planning with a twist.

    Would you lend your mom your fortune? Estate planning with a twist.

    [ad_1]

    When it comes to estate planning and family giving, the funds tend to run downstream to the younger generations. But one strategy — called upstream giving — could assist older generations during their lifetime and lessen taxes for the family overall.

    This complicated strategy isn’t for the faint of heart. There’s a lot to consider, and a lot of steps need to happen in perfect order for it to work as intended.

    “While…

    Master your money.

    Subscribe to MarketWatch.

    Get this article and all of MarketWatch.

    Access from any device. Anywhere. Anytime.


    Subscribe Now

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • How a second set of Trump tax cuts could jack up the national debt

    How a second set of Trump tax cuts could jack up the national debt

    [ad_1]

    If Donald Trump were to be elected president in 2024, what would it mean for U.S. tax policy and the national debt?

    There are growing expectations that he could deliver another round of big tax cuts, with the reductions coming right as those enacted in 2017’s Tax Cut and Jobs Act are due to expire in 2025.

    “If Republicans hold their House…

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • How ransomware attack on ICBC rattled the Treasury market and shook up a 30-year bond auction

    How ransomware attack on ICBC rattled the Treasury market and shook up a 30-year bond auction

    [ad_1]

    It was a trading day unlike any other for traders in the $25 trillion Treasury market, with a 30-year bond auction seen as having been partially undermined by a cyberattack on the U.S. unit of a Chinese bank.

    In recapping Treasury’s poorly received $24 billion bond auction on Thursday, traders said the weaker-than-expected results likely had at least something to do with this week’s ransomware hit on the American arm of Industrial & Commercial Bank of China, known as ICBC. That attack reportedly caused disruptions across the market and had some impact on liquidity, with the Financial Times citing unnamed sources as saying hedge funds and asset managers were forced to reroute trades.

    Traders were grappling on Friday to answer the question of what created the sudden lack of interest at the auction, which went so badly that it also shook up U.S. stock investors. Thursday’s sale was the worst since November 2021, based on the extent to which primary dealers were forced to step in and pick up the slack in demand, one trader said. And it reinforced a recent pattern of weak auctions for the 30-year bond that may not bode well for future sales of that long-dated maturity.

    It’s possible that bonds simply “look much less attractive” following a recent “explosive rally” since late October, according to Charlie McElligott, a cross-asset macro strategist at Nomura Securities in New York. However, “this might be the case of ‘more than meets the eye’ to this ‘ugly auction evidencing low demand for duration’ story,” he wrote in a note.

    “One dynamic that makes yesterday’s ugly auction results murky was the ICBC cyberattack described across various financial media, which gunked-up anybody who clears UST trades through them, and made it so that many dealers were then likely unable to trade with those clients until resolved, on account of unsettled trades which weren’t able to be matched,” McElligott said.

    Adding to Thursday’s uncertainty was another random event. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell appeared on stage in an International Monetary Fund panel, was interrupted by a climate protester, and then uttered a seven-letter expletive that could be heard on the event’s livestream.

    Powell’s policy-related remarks, which indicated the central bank might take further action to control inflation, “didn’t help things and kind of spooked people again,” said John Farawell, head of municipal trading at New York bond underwriter Roosevelt & Cross.

    Read: Fed’s Powell Made Cryptic Comments. How He’s Guiding the Market.

    On Friday, the Treasury market found stabilization as buyers returned to segments of government debt in a sign that calm was being restored. A rush of buying was seen on the 30-year bond
    BX:TMUBMUSD30Y,
    sending its yield down to 4.733% and to a third straight weekly decline.

    Meanwhile, Bloomberg News reported that the repercussions of the ICBC cyberattack included an inability to deliver U.S. debt that was being pledged as collateral. ICBC’s U.S. unit was forced to rely on a messenger carrying a USB stick across Manhattan to complete disrupted trades, according to the news service, which also described Thursday’s $24 billion 30-year bond auction as one of the worst in a decade.

    The ICBC attack “might have had a dramatic impact on the auction. I don’t know how much, but I also can’t imagine it didn’t,” said Tom di Galoma, co-head of global rates trading for BTIG in New York. “When people see that there are trade-settlement issues, there’s a willingness to back off and that’s exactly what happened yesterday. Institutional accounts were saying, ‘We don’t know who is settling this trade.’ If the cyberattack hadn’t happened, I think the auction would have gone a lot better.”

    Ben Emons, a senior portfolio manager and head of fixed income for NewEdge Wealth in New York, said that once the Treasury market got upended by the ICBC cyberattack, the bad auction, and the interruption during Powell’s appearance, liquidity on U.S. government debt “was, for a moment, a dark matter.”

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • A wall of debt rolling over: Here’s what’s scaring Bridgewater’s co-CIO

    A wall of debt rolling over: Here’s what’s scaring Bridgewater’s co-CIO

    [ad_1]

    A weak session is setting up for Tuesday, with oil under pressure after unexpectedly downbeat China export data. So the preference is for bonds this morning, as stock futures tilt south.

    Onto our call of the day, which deals with another worry — a wall of government debt that will be with us for decades. It comes from Bridgewater’s highly regraded co-chief investment officer Bob Prince, who was speaking at the Global Financial Leaders’ Investment Summit on Tuesday, hosted by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority.

    Prince touches on asset liability mismatches, such as what was seen during the banking crisis earlier this year. He explains that one big factor behind a crisis is when a certain economic regime exists for an extended period of time and “people extrapolate that into the future on the basis of leverage and asset liability mismatches. Then you get a shift in that regime.”

    The events of March, which saw the collapse of SVB, Signature Bank and Silvergate, were a perfect example of that, Prince says. Then he turns to what he calls the “broader effects of a transition from 15 years of abundant free money,” that was first used to battle deleveraging pressures in the financial system in 2008 and then the pandemic.

    One long-term effect of that gets particular attention by Prince, who points out how U.S. government Treasury debt to GDP was about 70% in 2008, around where it had been for decades.

    “The after effects of offsetting deleveraging and pandemic, you’ve had a massive wealth shift from the public sector to the private sector and that’s left the government with debt to GDP up from 70% up to 120%. And the particular vulnerability of that is in the debt rollovers and the gross issuance that you’re going to see in the coming decades . You’re stuck with that debt until you pay it off and that means you have to roll it over like anybody else does,” said Prince.

    “Gross debt issuance will be running at 25% for as far as the eye can see, that means every year you’re issuing 25% of GDP in debt. In 1960, the average amount of debt issuance was 12% of GDP,” he said.

    Prince says most people really don’t pay attention to debt rollovers because they just assume those will get done, but notes that when countries have experienced balance of payments crisis in the past, mostly emerging markets, that is because they have been unable to roll over that debt.

    In the U.S. case, it’s crucial to look at who is holding the debt, particularly the 27% held by foreign investors and 18% by central banks. “Foreign investors would normally be a reliable source of investment but it does heighten sensitivity to geopolitical risk, and so geopolitical risk converges with debt rollovers and gross issuance of the Treasury is an issue that you need to pay attention to in the coming years.

    While not an “acute problem,” he says, it’s a lingering one, and when it comes to central banks it’s also unclear whether their holdings also present a “rollover risk.”

    Prince also touches on the fact that that all that “abundant free money” has fueled a private-equity boom, but with interest rates now at 8% instead of 2% or 3%, “the pace and transaction cycle is bound to slow,” and they are starting to see that.

    “When we talk to institutional investors around the world, many of them are experiencing liquidity issues right now and the liquidity issues result from the fact so much money was allocated to private assets and the transaction cycle is slowing,” he said.

    MarketWatch 50: Forget U.S. stocks for now. Invest here instead, says Bridgewater’s co–investment chief

    A team of analysts at Citigroup led by Nathan Sheets have also weighed in on government debt, telling clients in a new note that “it’s unwise for policy makers to experiment or test” where the threshold for too much debt lies. Here’s their chart showing the bleak trajectory:

    Dirk Willer, head of global asset allocation at Citigroup, said a debt crisis scenario in the U.S. would likely mean a selloff of risk assets globally. He notes that bonds in rival countries may not be the best bet as they don’t always benefit. And both gold and bitcoin underperformed during the U.K. gilt crisis, so those may be out.

    Also in attendance at the conference in Hong Kong, Deutsche Bank’s CEO is worried geopolitics could create another market event and Citadel’s Ken Griffin said investors should put money in China.

    Read: ‘Stock-market correction is over’ after broad surge amid ‘epic’ market rallies

    The markets

    Stock futures
    ES00,
    -0.02%

    NQ00,
    +0.31%

    are pointing to a weak to flat session ahead, while the 10-year Treasury yield
    BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
    eases back. U.S. crude
    CL.1,
    -2.20%

    is under $80 a barrel after worse-than-forecast China exports signaled more economic bumps in the global growth engine. The dollar
    DXY
    is up.

    The buzz

    Planet Fitness stock
    PLNT,
    -0.27%

    is surging on upbeat results and an improved growth outlook. Uber
    UBER,
    +0.82%

    is up as earnings beat forecasts, but revenue fell short. D.R. Horton
    DHI,
    -0.96%

    stock is also getting a boost from results. EBay
    EBAY,
    -0.44%
    ,
    Occidental Petroleum
    OXY,
    -2.00%
    ,
    Akamai Tech
    AKAM,
    -0.06%

    and Gilead Sciences
    GILD,
    -0.55%

    after the close.

    Reporting late Thursday, Tripadvisor
    TRIP,
    +2.29%

    delivered blowout results and the stock is surging, while Sanmina
    SANM,
    -1.03%

    is down 14% after the manufacturing services provider’s disappointing results.

    UBS
    UBS,
    -0.49%

    UBSG,
    +2.79%

    swung to a $785 million quarterly loss on lingering effects of its Credit Suisse takeover, but it pulled in $33 billion in new deposits and shares are up.

    After a decade of turmoil, office-sharing group WeWork
    WE,
    -24.73%

    filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on Monday. 

    The U.S. trade deficit climbed 5% in September to $61.5 billion as imports rebounded. Still to come is consumer credit at 3 p.m. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr speaks at 9:15 a.m., followed by Fed Gov. Christopher Waller at 10 a.m.

    The International Monetary Fund boosted its China outlook for 2023 and 2024.

    Best of the web

    Big banks are cooking up new ways to offload risk.

    Retirees continue to flock to places where climate risk is high.

    How to know when it’s time to retire

    The chart

    According to this recent JPMorgan survey, two-thirds of investors are ready to start pumping more money into equities, while just 19% plan to increase bond exposure. Also, note that 67% also said they did not expect performance of the Magnificent 7 stocks — Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Tesla and Meta — to “crack before the end of the year.”

    Top tickers

    These were the top-searched tickers on MarketWatch as of 6 a.m.:

    TSLA,
    -0.31%
    Tesla

    AMC,
    +2.15%
    AMC Entertainment

    NVDA,
    +1.66%
    Nvidia

    AAPL,
    +1.46%
    Apple

    NIO,
    -3.16%
    NIO

    GME,
    -2.45%
    GameStop

    AMZN,
    +0.82%
    Amazon.com

    PLTR,
    -1.85%
    Palantir Technologies

    MULN,
    +3.88%
    Mullen Automotive

    MSFT,
    +1.06%
    Microsoft

    NVDA,
    +1.66%
    Nvidia

    Random reads

    Fifteen people ended up with eye pain and sight issues after a Bored Ape NFT event.

    A death metal band asked for singers on social media. A choir responded.

    undefined

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • U.S. construction spending rises for the ninth month in a row in September

    U.S. construction spending rises for the ninth month in a row in September

    [ad_1]

    Construction spending rose in September, as companies and the government continued to ramp up projects across the U.S.

    Spending on construction projects rose 0.4% in September to nearly $2 trillion, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. 

    The…

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • Why strategists see 10-year Treasury yield breaching 5% despite Friday’s pullback

    Why strategists see 10-year Treasury yield breaching 5% despite Friday’s pullback

    [ad_1]

    The 10-year Treasury yield continued to pull back from 5% on Friday after moving tantalizingly close to surpassing that level in the previous session.

    The yield touched 5% at 5:02 p.m. Eastern time on Thursday, only to drift back down, according to Tradeweb data. It ended Friday’s New York session down by 6.3 basis points at 4.924%.

    Rising Middle East tensions gave way to renewed safe-haven demand in government debt on Friday that not only sent the 10-year yield
    BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
    lower, but dragged down rates on everything from 3-month Treasury bills
    BX:TMUBMUSD03M
    to the 30-year bond
    BX:TMUBMUSD30Y.

    Investors were trying to catch the proverbial falling knife by taking advantage of a cheaper 10-year Treasury note, the product of recent selloffs. Analysts warn that it’s difficult to have much short-term conviction in catching that knife, however, given the likelihood that the selloff could return.

    One big reason is the onslaught of new supply from the U.S. Treasury as the result of the government’s growing borrowing needs, which is raising the risk that investors will keep demanding more compensation to hold long-dated debt to maturity.

    On Oct. 30 and Nov. 1, which is the same day as the Federal Reserve’s next policy decision, Treasury is expected to provide updated guidance on its borrowing needs and auction sizes. Treasury’s refunding announcement could even upstage the Federal Open Market Committee — creating “fertile ground for a continuation of the selloff in Treasuries,” said BMO Capital Markets rates strategists Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery.

    Over the next several weeks, “it becomes much easier to envision a surge in Treasury yields in anticipation of the upcoming coupon supply,” they wrote in a note on Friday. While the 10-year yield has stopped shy of 5%, “we continue to expect this milestone will be reached shortly.”

    Stock-market investors have been focused on the prospects of a 5% 10-year yield because such a level would dent the appeal of equities and make government debt a more attractive investment by comparison.

    Read: Why stock-market investors are fixated on 5% as 10-year Treasury yield nears key threshold

    As of Friday, the 10-year yield, used as the benchmark on everything from mortgages to student and auto loans, has jumped 163.9 basis points from its 52-week low of almost 3.29% reached on April 5. The 10-year yield hasn’t ended the New York session above 5% since July 19, 2007.

    Meanwhile, all three major stock indexes
    DJIA

    SPX

    COMP
    ended the day lower as the prospects of a widening conflict in the Middle East triggered a flight-to-safety trade into Treasurys.

    Taking a step back, a 5% 10-year yield would imply that a Goldilocks-scenario of a U.S. economy — one that’s neither too hot or too cold, and able to sustain moderate growth — “is here to stay for a decade,” or that the Fed’s main interest-rate target needs to be materially higher on average over the next decade, according to BMO’s Lyngen and Jeffery. One of the biggest questions facing policy makers is whether the economy might be moving into a new stage in which even higher interest rates down the road could be required to cool demand and activity.

    Though BMO Capital Markets is biased toward lower yields into the weekend given the absence of major economic data on Friday, technical indicators “continue to favor higher rates in the near-term,” and “our conviction that 5% will ultimately be traded through has grown.”

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • House speaker election: Jim Jordan racks up endorsements before vote at noon Tuesday

    House speaker election: Jim Jordan racks up endorsements before vote at noon Tuesday

    [ad_1]

    Rep. Jim Jordan made progress Monday in his push to become the next speaker of the House of Representatives, winning endorsements from some fellow Republicans who just last week had refused to back him.

    The narrowly divided chamber of Congress is expected to vote around noon Eastern Tuesday to select a speaker, with the move coming after former Speaker Kevin McCarthy was ousted two weeks ago and after No. 2 House Republican Steve Scalise ended his bid for the post last week.

    GOP Rep. Ann Wagner of Missouri, who previously said a Jordan speakership was a non-starter for her, switched her stance on Monday. She said in a post on X that her colleague from Ohio “has allayed my concerns about keeping the government open with conservative funding, the need for strong border security, our need for consistent international support in times of war and unrest … as well as the need for stronger protections against the scourge of human trafficking and child exploitation.”

    Similarly, GOP Rep. Mike Rogers of Alabama, who chairs the House Armed Services Committee, announced in a post on X that he was backing Jordan after saying last week that there was nothing that Jordan could do to win his support. Rogers pointed to an accord on an annual Pentagon bill, the National Defense Authorization Act, saying he and Jordan had “agreed on the need for Congress to pass a strong NDAA, appropriations to fund our government’s vital functions, and other important legislation like the Farm Bill.”

    Republican Rep. Vern Buchanan of Florida offered his support for Jordan as well on Monday, though he noted that he’s “deeply frustrated by the way this process has played out.” Another endorsement came from GOP Rep. Ken Calvert of California, who chairs the House Appropriations Committee’s defense subpanel.

    Jordan — who has been endorsed by former President Donald Trumpsent a letter to his colleagues in which he called for coming together after a chaotic two weeks, saying: “It is time we unite to get back to work on behalf of the American people.” The congressman, a co-founder of the hardline House Freedom Caucus and chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, also told CNN that he was confident about Tuesday’s vote, saying: “I feel good about it.”

    Analysts have been warning that the process of finding a replacement for McCarthy is preventing the House from addressing crucial matters, such as avoiding a government shutdown next month and supporting Israel in its war against Hamas.

    House Republicans made Jordan their nominee for speaker on Friday, but he drew just 124 votes while 81 lawmakers backed another candidate for speaker, GOP Rep. Austin Scott of Georgia. In another round of voting on Friday, Jordan still had 55 colleagues voting against him, but he now appears to be flipping some of them to his side.

    One betting market, Smarkets, was giving Jordan a 33% chance of becoming speaker. 

    Spending cuts and shutdown coming?

    Having Jordan as speaker could mean a 1% cut in defense
    ITA
    and non-defense spending, noted Philip Wallach, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank. That’s because this year’s debt-limit deal includes a provision that calls for such reductions if there aren’t bipartisan agreements on a dozen funding bills before Jan. 1 and instead a reliance on short-term measures known as continuing resolutions, or CRs.

    “It is now clear,” Wallach said during an AEI event on Monday, that Jordan’s “plan is to have us live off continuing resolutions and implement this 1% cut.”

    “That’s a concrete thing where he could say, ‘Well, we’re moving in the right direction. We’ve taken a hard stand,’” the AEI expert added.

    The CEO of one financial advisory firm also sees standoffs in the future.

    “We expect the next U.S. speaker will be less inclined to make deals than McCarthy; in many ways it makes more sense for them, politically, not to be a deal-maker in the current environment,” said deVere Group’s Nigel Green in a statement.

    “We believe that a U.S. government shutdown is now more likely with a new speaker of the House, and this has the potential to create a domino effect in global financial markets
    SPX.

    BTIG analysts Isaac Boltansky and Isabel Bandoroff said the speaker drama suggests that next year’s election will also be full of twists and turns.

    “We have followed every twist and turn of the speakership race, and there is only one takeaway we can share with absolute certainty: This confirms that the 2024 election cycle will be exhausting, volatile, and just downright weird from beginning to end,” they wrote in a note.

    U.S. stocks
    DJIA

    COMP
    closed higher Monday, as investors looked ahead to earnings season and unwound the flight-to-safety trades seen last week on fears the Israel-Hamas war could escalate into a wider conflict.

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • Why Treasurys could give the U.S. stock market a green light for a year-end rally

    Why Treasurys could give the U.S. stock market a green light for a year-end rally

    [ad_1]

    The volatility in the world’s biggest bond market in recent weeks has been too much for U.S. stocks to handle as investors come to terms with the likelihood that interest rates will remain high deep into 2024 until underlying inflationary pressures ease. 

    The U.S. Treasury market, the bedrock of the global financial system, has been hammered by repeated selling since late September, sending the yields on the 10-year and 30-year Treasurys to levels last seen when the economy was moving toward the financial crisis in 200, before yields fell again in the past week.

    Back in September a bond market selloff was fueled by a hawkish outlook from the Federal Reserve, along with mounting concern about the U.S. fiscal deficit and federal debt amid the potential for a government shutdown if a budget for the 2024 fiscal year is not settled by mid-November.

    Earlier this week though, increased uncertainty about the conflict in the Middle East propelled demand for safer assets and caused longer-term bond prices to jump and their yields to fall.

    Then, on Thursday, a Treasury bond auction which saw a pullback in demand despite notably higher yields, sent longer-term rates higher again while investors were already digesting inflation data that showed consumer prices remained elevated in September. The U.S. stocks fell and booked their worst day in five sessions on Thursday. 

    Investors are now wondering what it will take for interest rates and bond yields to fall in the months ahead and whether a retreat in yields could eventually push stocks higher to rally into the year-end. 

    Tim Hayes, chief global investment strategist at Ned Davis Research, said “excessive pessimism” in the bond market is setting up for a relief rally both in stock and bond prices as “there’s not as much inflationary pressures as the market has been pricing in,” he told MarketWatch in a phone interview on Thursday.

    Hayes said his team found the bond sentiment data has started to reflect a “decisive reversal” away from too much pessimism in the Treasury market which could send bond yields lower and boost equities given the inverse correlations between the S&P 500
    SPX
    and the 10-year Treasury note yield
    BX:TMUBMUSD10Y.
     

    See: Here is what needs to happen for the S&P 500 to hold on to this year’s gains

    Meanwhile, some analysts said disinflation may not be enough for the Federal Reserve to drop its “higher-for-longer” interest rate narrative which was primarily responsible for the big spike in yields since September. 

    The economy needs a slowdown in the consumer sector for some relaxation in the Fed’s “higher-for-longer” narrative and to maybe push policymakers to adopt a more flexible outlook for its long-term guidance, said Thierry Wizman, global FX and interest rates strategist at Macquarie. 

    “Of course, the Fed right now is certainly not saying anything that’s remotely suggestive of ‘high-for-long’ being taken away or being removed or negated, so I don’t expect yields to fall a lot unless we start to get reasons to believe the Fed is going to remove that narrative based on the economic data,” Wizman told MarketWatch via phone. 

    However, Wizman said he is confident that the U.S. consumption data will weaken over the next few months when major consumer-product and -service companies start to provide guidance for the fourth quarter, and when U.S. consumers, which have been trapped in a web of conflicting signals on the health of the economy, open their wallet for the holiday shopping season. 

    “This will produce some weakness on the consumer side of the market and there’s no doubt the slowdown will be more pronounced than most people expect in the economy, [but] that will be the positive scenario for bonds,” said Marco Pirondini, head of U.S. equities at Amundi U.S., in an interview with MarketWatch. 

    However, that also means investors should not be “too anxious to buy dips in the stock market” because it would be very unusual if the stock market doesn’t see “multiple compression” with Treasury yields at 16-year highs, Wizman said. “Stocks would still look too rich even if the Fed drops the ‘higher-for-longer’ narrative in the first quarter of 2024.”

    See: Fed skips rate hike for now, but doesn’t rule out another increase this year

    The “higher-for-longer” mantra is an idea Fed officials have tried to get the market to absorb in recent months, with Fed Chair Powell hardening his rhetoric at the September FOMC meeting, pointing potentially to more rate hikes or, more importantly, interest rates that stay higher for longer.

    Fed officials saw interest rates coming down to 5.1% in 2024, higher than June’s outlook for rates to finish next year at 4.6%, according to the latest Summary of Economic Projections at the September policy meeting.

    See: Stock-market moves show bond traders are still in charge as yields renew rise

    However, Wizman characterized the “higher-than-longer” narrative as a “publicity stunt,” as he thought Fed officials simply wanted to signal to the market that they were frustrated that financial conditions hadn’t measurably tightened enough in 2023, so they utilized the narrative to get rising Treasury yields to do some of the “heavy lifting.” 

    “… Fed officials are not really serious about ‘higher-for-longer’ – they just did it to drive long-term yields higher for now,” he added. 

    If a slowdown in the consumer sector of the economy and ongoing disinflation are powerful enough to sap Fed’s rate expectations, Treasury yields could continue to decline without having to have a calamity or big recession in the U.S. economy to drive investors back to the safe-haven assets like Treasurys, strategists said.  

    See: U.S. stock-market seasonality suggests a potential rally in the fourth quarter. Why this time might be different.

    Meanwhile, stock-market seasonality may also help lift sentiment. Historically, the fourth quarter has been the best quarter for the U.S. stock market, with the large-cap S&P 500 index up nearly 80% of the time dating back to 1950 and gaining more than 4% on average. 

    The S&P 500 has risen 0.9% so far in the fourth quarter, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA
    is up 0.5% and the Nasdaq Composite
    COMP
    has advanced 1.4% in October, according to FactSet data.

    “So you have this situation where sentiment got stretched and now sentiment is reversing with more confidence that bond yields have reached their peak, so equities can rally moving into the end of the year, and that should start to become increasingly evident,” said Hayes.

    The yield on the 10-year Treasury note dropped 8.2 basis points to 4.628% on Friday, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury 
    BX:TMUBMUSD30Y
    declined by 9.2 basis points to 4.777%. The 30-year yield fell 16.4 basis points this week, its largest weekly drop since the period that ended March 10, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • Treasuries Are Signaling Weak Demand. What’s Ailing The Market.

    Treasuries Are Signaling Weak Demand. What’s Ailing The Market.

    [ad_1]

    30-Year Treasuries Had an Ugly Auction. What’s Behind the Weak Demand.

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • Why 5% bond yields could wreak havoc on the market

    Why 5% bond yields could wreak havoc on the market

    [ad_1]

    The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond briefly rose above 5% again on Friday, opening the door to the likelihood of a more sustainable rise above that mark and the risk that the benchmark 10-year yield follows — moves which could wreak havoc across financial markets.

    One big reason is that investors are likely to demand greater compensation for taking risk as yields hover around some of the highest levels of the past 16 years, asset managers said. Corporate credit spreads could keep widening in a sign of worsening economic conditions and higher overall risk. And with returns on government debt becoming a more favorable option for investments, the stock market may be vulnerable to repeated drubbings.

    Read: Treasury yields are climbing: ‘There’s never really been such an attractive opportunity for fixed-income investments’

    Stock investors nonetheless shook off Friday’s stunning official jobs report for September, which saw the U.S. add almost twice as many jobs as forecasters had expected. All three major stock indexes
    DJIA

    SPX

    COMP
    finished higher even though yields climbed on everything from the 1-month T-bill
    BX:TMUBMUSD01M
    to the 30-year bond
    BX:TMUBMUSD30Y.
    The yield on the long bond finished at 4.941% — the highest level since Sept. 20, 2007 — after rising past 5% during the New York morning. The rate on the 10-year note
    BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
    ended at 4.783%, the second-highest level of this year.

    Yields are returning to more normal-looking levels that prevailed before the 2007-2009 recession as the result of aggressive selloffs in government debt. More important than the absolute level of yields is the speed with which they have been heading to 5%. In the words of analyst Ajay Rajadhyaksha of Barclays earlier this week, there’s “no magic level” that will turn the current selloffs into a rally, and stocks have substantial room to reprice lower before bonds stabilize.

    “I think the market isn’t breaking yet, but a 5% 10-year yield is coming,” said Robert Daly, who manages $4.5 billion in assets as director of fixed income at Glenmede Investment Management in Philadelphia. “We’re already here on 30s and not that far away on 10s. Investors are trying to figure what level breaks the market, and I don’t think you can put your finger on the pulse as to what that level is.”

    Still, “a higher level of interest rates and yields is going to start having ramifications for broader markets at large,” leaving many investors hesitant to buy just about anything due to the volatility, Daly said via phone on Friday, after the release of September’s hot payrolls data.

    Friday’s data, which showed the U.S. creating 336,000 new jobs last month or almost double what economists had expected, is opening the door to a possible interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve on Nov. 1. The strong labor market means the Fed’s higher-for-longer mantra in rates is still in play and “the market is in a tenuous position to navigate all these things because of all the uncertainty,” Daly said.

    “Yields sustainably above 5% for a longer period of time will act as a weight on the market in terms of how you value risk compensation,” he said. “Investors are going to ask for more compensation to take risk and when you see liquidity evaporate more and more, that’s what’s going to turn the market over.”

    Friday’s price action was the second time this week that data related to the robust U.S. labor market has triggered a bonds selloff. On Tuesday, a snapback in U.S. job openings for August sent the 10- and 30-year yields to their highest closing levels since August-September of 2007.

    The next day, high-grade corporate-credit spreads widened for a seventh consecutive session. Daniel Krieter, a fixed-income strategist at BMO Capital Markets, wrote that “if rates continue to move higher or simply remain at these elevated levels for a significant period of time, it is going to have a pronounced effect on the creditworthiness of corporate borrowers, particularly in the high yield space.”

    In a note on Friday, Krieter’s colleagues, rates strategists Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery, wrote that “it’s not difficult to envision 10s maintain a range between 4.75% and 5.00%.”

    “The longer 10s hold this range, the more convinced the market will become that elevated yields are here to stay,” Lyngen and Jeffery said. “Admittedly, we’ve been surprised by the muted response in U.S. equities from the spike in yields and expect that’s due in part to the expectation for a swift reversal. In the event a correction fails to materialize, stocks will be overdue for a more meaningful reckoning.”

    The risk of “something breaking” will remain top of mind and “there is no shortage of risks facing equities and credit as rates continue to climb,” they added. “It’s not only the outright level of yields, but the length of time that borrowing costs stay elevated will also hold implications for risk asset valuations.”

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • How 10-year Treasurys could produce 20% returns, according to UBS

    How 10-year Treasurys could produce 20% returns, according to UBS

    [ad_1]

    Carnage in the bond market in September could tee up an opportunity for investors to earn big returns on U.S. government debt in a year.

    Owners of 10-year Treasury
    BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
    notes at recent yields of around 4.5% could reap up to 20% in total returns in a year if the U.S. economy stumbles into a recession, according to UBS Global Wealth Management.

    The key would be for U.S. debt to rally significantly as investors scramble for safety in the roughly $25 trillion treasury market.

    “U.S. yields remain well above long-term equilibrium levels, providing scope for them to fall as the macroeconomic outlook becomes more supportive for bonds,” a team led by Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management, wrote in a Friday client note.

    Their base-case call is for the 10-year Treasury yield to fall to 3.5% in 12 months, with it easing back to 4% in an upside scenario for growth, and for the economy’s benchmark rate to tumble as low as 2.75% in a downside scenario of a U.S. recession.

    “That would translate into total returns over the period of 14% in our base case, 10% in our upside economic scenario, and 20% in our downside scenario.”

    See: The market ‘may be overpaying you’ on a 10-year Treasury, says Lloyd Blankfein

    A rally in Treasury debt could help boost funds that track the Treasury market and the broader U.S. bond sector. The popular iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
    TLT
    was down 10.9% on the year through Friday, while the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF
    AGG
    was 3% lower, according to FactSet.

    A tug of war has been developing in the Treasury market, with fear gripping investors this week as bond yields spike in the wake of signals last week from the Federal Reserve that interest rates may need to stay higher for longer than many on Wall Street anticipated.

    “Bond vigilantes” unhappy about the U.S. deficit have been demanding higher yields, while households and hedge funds have been piling into Treasury securities since the Fed began raising rates in 2022.

    Much hinges on how painful things get if rates stay high, which would ratchet up borrowing costs for households, companies and the U.S. government as the Fed works to get falling inflation down to its 2% target.

    Hedge-fund billionaire Bill Ackman this week said he thinks Treasury yields are going higher in a hurry, as part of his bet that the 30-year Treasury yield
    BX:TMUBMUSD30Y
    has more room to climb.

    The 10-year Treasury edged lower to 4.572% on Friday, after adding almost 50 basis points in September, which helped the stock market reclaim some lost ground in a dismal month, while the 30-year Treasury yield pulled back to 4.709%, according to FactSet.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA
    posted a 3.5% decline in September, its biggest monthly loss since February, the S&P 500 index
    SPX
    fell 4.8% and the Nasdaq Composite Index
    COMP
    shed 5.8% for the month.

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • Treasury Yields Are Headed Even Higher. Stocks Won’t Like It.

    Treasury Yields Are Headed Even Higher. Stocks Won’t Like It.

    [ad_1]

    Treasury Yields Are Headed Even Higher. Stocks Won’t Like It.

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • Risk of government shutdown soars as House Republicans leave town in disarray amid hard-right revolt

    Risk of government shutdown soars as House Republicans leave town in disarray amid hard-right revolt

    [ad_1]

    WASHINGTON — With House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s latest funding plan in ruins and lawmakers leaving town for the weekend, there’s no endgame in sight as hard-right Republicans push closer to a federal government shutdown.

    The White House will tell federal agencies on Friday to prepare for a shutdown, according to an official with the Office of Management and Budget who insisted on anonymity to discuss the upcoming instructions.

    That’s a standard seven days out from a federal disruption.

    ‘This is a whole new concept of individuals who just want to burn the whole place down.’


    — Kevin McCarthy on his intraparty Republican critics

    McCarthy, the Republican speaker whose narrow majority and intraparty detractors meant it took 15 votes in January before he secured the gavel, has repeatedly tried to appease his hard-right flank by agreeing to the steep spending cuts they are demanding to keep government open. But, cheered on by Donald Trump, the former Republican president who is the current frontrunner for the party’s 2024 presidential nomination, the right wingers are flexing their outsize influence.

    In a crushing defeat for McCarthy on Thursday, a handful of Republican hardliners blocked a typically popular defense bill from advancing — the second time this week it was set back, an unheard-of loss for a House speaker.

    Even a stopgap bill to keep government funding past the Sept. 30 deadline, called a continuing resolution, or CR, is a nonstarter for some on the right flank who have essentially seized control of the House.

    Read on: How a partial government shutdown would affect you

    “This is a whole new concept of individuals who just want to burn the whole place down,” McCarthy said after Thursday’s vote, acknowledging he was frustrated. “It doesn’t work.”

    The open revolt was further evidence that McCarthy’s strategy of repeatedly giving in to the conservatives — in evidence as early as January when McCarthy is believed to have made undisclosed concessions to secure holdout GOP votes for his long-desired speakership — is seemingly only emboldening them, allowing them to run roughshod over their own House majority. Their far-right bills have almost no chances in the Senate.

    See: Gaetz threatens to oust McCarthy from House speaker post

    Trump urged the hardliners to hold the line against the higher funding levels McCarthy had agreed to with President Joe Biden earlier this year and to end the federal criminal indictments against him.

    “This is also the last chance to defund these political prosecutions against me and other Patriots,” Trump wrote on social media.

    “They failed on the debt limit, but they must not fail now. Use the power of the purse and defend the Country!” the former president wrote.

    The White House and Democrats, along with some Republicans, warn that a shutdown would be devastating for people who rely on their government for everyday services and would undermine America’s standing in the world.

    Rep. Jamie Raskin, a Maryland Democrat, observed Friday on the MSNBC program “Morning Joe” that investigations into, and prosecutions of, Trump are funded by continuing, indefinite appropriations and thus would be unaffected by a federal government shutdown.

    Also see: Government shutdown: Analysts warn of ‘perhaps a long one lasting into the winter’

    Raskin went on to voice a hope that Republicans ultimately would honor the government-funding agreement McCarthy struck in May with the Biden White House — but conceded Democrats are aware operating in a bipartisan fashion could cost McCarthy the speakership.

    “We need the extreme MAGA Republicans to get their act together,” said House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York, referring to Trump’s “Make America Great Again” slogan.

    “End the civil war,” Jeffries urged the Republicans. “Get your act together.”

    But one of Trump’s top allies, Rep. Matt Gaetz, a Florida Republican, who is leading the hard-right flank in the current skirmish, said the House Republicans now have almost no choices left but to spend the time it takes to pass each of the 12 spending bills needed to fund the government — typically a laborious process — even if it means going into a shutdown.

    Or they can join with Democrats to pass a CR, putting McCarthy at risk.

    What Gaetz said he, and several others, would not do is vote for a continuing resolution that fails to slash spending. “I’m giving a eulogy for the CR right now,” Gaetz told reporters after a late afternoon meeting Thursday at the Capitol.

    “I represent Florida’s First Congressional District, where, during the shutdown, tens of thousands of people will go without a paycheck, and so I know the impact of a shutdown,” Gaetz said. “So it may get worse before it gets better, and I have little to offer but blood, sweat, toil and tears, but that may be what it takes.”

    A government closure is increasingly likely as time runs out for Congress to act.

    McCarthy’s bid to move ahead with a traditionally popular defense funding bill as a first step toward keeping the government running was shattered, on a vote of 216-212. Five Republicans refused to vote with the increasingly endangered speaker. A sixth Republican voted no on procedural grounds so the bill could be reconsidered.

    Moving forward with the defense bill was supposed to be a way for McCarthy to build goodwill among the GOP House majority as he tries to pass a temporary measure just to keep government running for another month. It, too, had catered to other hard-right priorities, such as slashing spending by 8% from many services and earmarking further funds for security at the U.S.-Mexico border.

    Many on the right flank opposed the deal McCarthy struck with Biden this year over the spending levels and are trying to dismantle it now. They want to see progress on the individual appropriations bills that would fund the various federal departments at the lower levels these lawmakers are demanding.

    From the archives (May 2023): How Joe Biden and Kevin McCarthy got to yes on their debt-ceiling compromise

    The morning test vote on Thursday shattered a McCarthy strategy that had emerged just the night before. Republicans had appeared on track, in a tight roll call, to advancing the measure. Then the Democrats who had not yet voted began rushing into the chamber.

    New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and fellow Democrats yelled out to hold open the vote. She was a “no.” A few others came in behind her and tipped the tally toward defeat.

    The Democrats oppose the military bill on many fronts, including Republican provisions that would gut diversity programs at the Pentagon.

    As passage appeared doomed, attention turned to the five Republican holdouts to switch their votes.

    GOP leaders spent more than an hour on the floor trying to recruit one of them, Rep. Dan Bishop of North Carolina, to vote “yes.”

    “Every time there’s the slightest relief of the pressure, the movement goes away from completing the work,” Bishop said.

    When asked what it would take to gain his vote, Bishop said, “I think a schedule of appropriations bills over Kevin McCarthy signature would be meaningful to you, to me.”

    Others were dug in, including some who had supported advancing the defense bill just two days ago when it first failed.

    Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, a Georgia Republican and a clamorous opponent of more aid for Ukraine in its defense against the unprovoked Russian invasion, said she voted against the defense bill this time because her party’s leadership refused to separate out war money.

    Her stand came as Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, was at the Capitol during a high-profile visit to Washington.

    McCarthy had pledged to keep House lawmakers in session this weekend for as long as it took to finish their work. But they were sent home and told they could be called back on ample notice.

    Many Republicans were starting to speak up more forcefully against their hard-right colleagues.

    Mike Lawler, who represents a swing district in New York carried handily by Joe Biden in 2020, said he would not “be party to a shutdown.”

    “There needs to be a realization that you’re not going to get everything you want,” he said. “Just throwing a temper tantrum and stomping your feet — frankly, not only is it wrong — it’s just pathetic.”

    Lawler had said in an interview with CNN earlier in the week that barreling toward a shutdown was not Republican conservatism but “stupidity.”

    MarketWatch contributed.

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • Treasury yields near highest levels in more than a decade after hawkish Fed projections

    Treasury yields near highest levels in more than a decade after hawkish Fed projections

    [ad_1]

    Treasury yields tested their highest levels in more than a dozen years on Thursday as investors continued to absorb the Federal Reserve’s message of higher-for-longer interest rates.

    What’s happening

    What’s driving markets

    Treasury yields continued to climb on Thursday as investors continued to absorb the Federal Reserve’s projections, delivered Wednesday, that suggested another interest-rate increase this year and that borrowing costs were likely to be cut in 2024 by less than previously thought.

    Markets…

    [ad_2]

    Source link