ReportWire

Tag: gop debate

  • FactChecking the Haley-DeSantis GOP Debate

    FactChecking the Haley-DeSantis GOP Debate

    [ad_1]

    By Eugene Kiely, D’Angelo Gore, Lori Robertson, Robert Farley, Jessica McDonald and Saranac Hale Spencer

    Summary

    There were several disputes between Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina governor and U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in the fifth Republican primary debate, the first of the 2024 election cycle to include only two candidates. We refereed some of those arguments and set the facts straight on other claims:

    • DeSantis said that in South Carolina, Haley “tried to raise the gas tax” and “proposed a tax on groceries.” Haley said she’d accept an increase in the gas tax only if the state’s income tax was reduced by a greater margin. She also once said she’d support resurrecting the grocery tax if the overall sales tax was reduced and corporate income taxes eliminated.
    • DeSantis misleadingly claimed that President Joe Biden “let in 8 million people” across the southern border, saying, “They all have to go back.” Many of them have already gone back.
    • Haley touted a Wall Street Journal poll that showed her beating Biden by 17 points in a general election between the two candidates, but she left the false impression that “every one” of such polls had her up by that much.
    • The candidates tangled over Syrian refugees who came to South Carolina when Haley was governor. DeSantis claimed that Haley “did bring Syrian refugees” to South Carolina, but Haley opposed the resettlement of Syrian refugees in her state.
    • Each candidate failed to adequately explain the other’s position on Social Security and the retirement age. DeSantis also incorrectly said life expectancy was “collapsing.” Life expectancy at birth actually rose between 2021 and 2022, after drops driven by the COVID-19 pandemic.
    • On transgender issues, DeSantis accused Haley of killing a 2016 bathroom bill when she was governor and changing her position on what medical care should be legally available to minors, but he overstated both claims.
    • DeSantis said Haley “opposed the border wall in 2016” and “ridiculed” Trump for proposing it. But in calling for a more comprehensive approach, Haley said then that “just” building a wall was not going to solve illegal immigration.
    • DeSantis disagreed that he had issued a statement similar to Haley’s in response to the killing of George Floyd. We’ll let readers decide.

    The Jan. 10 debate in Des Moines, Iowa, was hosted by CNN. During the first hour, former President Donald Trump was participating in a town hall, also in Des Moines, that aired on Fox News.

    Analysis

    Tax Disputes

    Haley objected when DeSantis said that she “tried to raise the gas tax” in South Carolina.

    “What we said is, if you want to raise the gas tax, you have to reduce the income tax by five times that amount,” Haley shot back. She’s right.

    Haley opposed a stand-alone tax increase on gasoline, but did propose an infrastructure plan that would have raised the gas tax only if state legislators also voted to cut income taxes for residents.

    In a 2015 article, South Carolina’s Post and Courier reported that Haley’s plan “aims to raise the tax on gasoline by 10 cents a gallon over three years while reducing the state income tax from 7 percent to 5 percent over 10 years.” The article noted that the proposal had the support of Grover Norquist, the president of Americans for Tax Reform, an organization that opposes higher taxes.

    Ultimately, no such plan was approved while Haley was governor.

    Haley also pushed back when DeSantis claimed that she “proposed a tax on groceries” for South Carolinians.

    “We don’t have a grocery tax in South Carolina,” she said.

    The state’s sales and use tax rate on unprepared food items was eliminated in 2007, as Haley indicated. But DeSantis appears to be referring to reporting that Haley later considered implementing a 2.5% grocery tax in exchange for cutting sales taxes overall, as well as eliminating income taxes on corporations.

    The Free Times reported that Haley, then a gubernatorial candidate, indicated “she would probably favor a reinstated tax on groceries as part of broader tax reform that would simultaneously lower the overall sales tax rate and wipe out the corporate income tax in South Carolina.”

    DeSantis Misleads on Illegal Immigration

    In speaking about illegal immigration, DeSantis claimed that Biden “let in 8 million people just in four years. They all have to go back.” That’s misleading. Many of them have already gone back.

    Since Biden took office in January 2021, the U.S. Border Patrol had more than 6 million encounters with people trying to cross the southwest border illegally, through November, according to the U.S. Customs and Border Protection website. In addition, the Republican-controlled House Homeland Security Committee released a report in October that estimated that under Biden there have been 1.7 million “gotaways” — which are people who cross the border illegally without being apprehended.

    Combined, the two figures are close to the 8 million number cited by DeSantis.

    But, as we have written before, the number of border encounters includes those immediately expelled under Title 42, a public health law the Trump administration began invoking at the southwest border in March 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic. The policy did not end until May 11, 2023. The CBP data show that from January 2021 through May 2023, there had been about 2.5 million people who were immediately expelled under Title 42.

    Also, as we have written, the CBP data represent the number of encounters, not people, and there are individuals who have been apprehended multiple times trying to cross the border illegally. The most recent recidivism rate available was 27% in fiscal year 2021, which is through Sept. 30, 2021.

    In an article earlier this month, the Washington Post wrote that the actual number of migrants apprehended at the southern border and released into the United States to await immigration court proceedings under Biden is about 2.3 million. That figure is based on a Department of Homeland Security report.

    “The DHS data released Friday show more than 4 million border-crossers have been expelled to Mexico, returned to home countries or otherwise removed from the United States over the past three years,” the Post reported.

    Haley-Biden Polls

    In her closing remarks, Haley left the false impression that in “every one” of the hypothetical head-to-head general election polls, she defeats Biden “by 17 points.” That margin is from a Wall Street Journal poll, but other polls don’t put her ahead of Biden by that much. And some show Biden slightly ahead of Haley.

    In an average of recent polls, she does better against Biden than either DeSantis or Trump, but the margins for all are small.

    “We can’t go through another nail-biter of an election,” Haley said. “And if you look at the polls right now, going against Joe Biden. In every one of those head-to-head polls, Ron doesn’t beat Joe Biden. Trump is head-to-head. On a good day he might be up by 2 points. I defeat Biden by 17 points.”

    The Wall Street Journal poll, conducted Nov. 29 to Dec. 4 among 1,500 registered voters, showed Haley beating Biden by 17 points, when voters were asked which of those two politicians they would vote for if the 2024 general election were held that day. That spread includes those who said they would “definitely” and “probably” vote for either Haley or Biden. In the hypothetical matchup between DeSantis and Biden, the candidates were tied. Trump was ahead of Biden by 4 points.

    RealClear Polling’s average of recent head-to-head polls shows Haley leading Biden by 3.3 percentage points, while the average for DeSantis has him trailing Biden by 0.3 percentage points. Trump is up by an average of 1.2 points. Most polls have a margin of error of 2% to 3%.

    Besides that sizable 17-point spread in the Wall Street Journal poll, Haley bests Biden by 6 points in a Fox News survey and by 10 in a poll by The Messenger/Harris X. Biden is up by 5, however, in an Economist/YouGov survey. RealClear Polling’s list shows DeSantis beating Biden by 2 points at most in recent polls, and one December survey had Trump up by 6.

    Syrian Refugees

    In an exchange on Syrian refugees, Haley said that as the governor of South Carolina “we fought [President Barack] Obama on Syrian refugees.” DeSantis shot back, “She did bring Syrian refugees, and she got criticized for that” — to which Haley responded, “That is not true.”

    Never Back Down, a super PAC that supports DeSantis, previously told us in an email in October that Haley supported Obama’s resettlement of refugees in South Carolina in the spring of 2015 “until she was pressured by members of her own party into reversing her position in November following the Paris terrorist attacks.” But the April 22, 2015, story that the super PAC sent to us said Haley was “asking that those being brought to Spartanburg not come from Syria, given her constituents’ fears over who may be connected to terrorist groups,” and quoted her as saying “hopefully can bring in somebody other than Syrians.”

    After the Paris terrorist attack in November 2015, Haley sent a letter to then-Secretary of State John Kerry asking the Obama administration not to send any Syrian refugees to the United States. We can’t say whether GOP pressure prompted the correspondence. In her letter, she cited the Paris attack that killed 130 people and wounded 494 others, and news reports that one of the attackers falsely declared himself to be a Syrian refugee.

    “I have concerns with the vetting process of refugees from conflict-zones, specially Syria,” Haley wrote. She went on to say, “Therefore, until I can be assured that all potential refugees from Syria have no ties to terrorist organizations, I am requesting that the State Department not resettle any Syrian refugees in South Carolina.”

    More than half of the governors opposed having Syrian refugees resettled in their states. But as American University law professor Stephen I. Vladeck told CNN at the time: “Legally, states have no authority to do anything because the question of who should be allowed in this country is one that the Constitution commits to the federal government.”

    In fiscal year 2016, which started Oct. 1, 2015, and ended Sept. 30, 2016, South Carolina received 38 Syrian refugees, according to State Department data. In fiscal year 2017, which was from Oct. 1, 2016, through Sept. 30, 2017, South Carolina received another 11 refugees from Syria. Haley left the governor’s office in January 2017.

    Scuffle Over Social Security

    In a back-and-forth on Social Security, both Haley and DeSantis left out important details when characterizing the other’s position on the issue.

    “She said recently that the age of Social Security is way too low,” DeSantis said of Haley.

    “He voted to raise the retirement age to 70 three different times,” Haley responded.

    Both statements are technically true, but require context. As Haley explained later in the debate, she does support raising the age of eligibility for Social Security benefits to address concerns about the program’s solvency — but only for people who are currently in their 20s. 

    The former South Carolina governor announced her stance back in March, although she did not specify what the increased age would be. “What you would do is, for those in their 20s coming into the system, we would change the retirement age so that it matches life expectancy,” she told Fox News at the time. 

    Haley confirmed in the debate that in her view, people in their 20s “should plan on their retirement age being increased” to better match life expectancy, but again declined to specify an age.

    Haley is correct that in the past, DeSantis has supported raising the retirement age for collecting Social Security benefits. As we have written, as a member of Congress, DeSantis voted for three nonbinding budget proposals in 2013, 2014 and 2015 that called for increasing the full retirement age to 70 and indexing it for life expectancy. Full retirement age, or when someone is eligible for full Social Security benefits, is currently 66 or 67. The proposal would not have changed the minimum retirement age, which is 62.

    But DeSantis no longer backs that position. In March, a few months before announcing his presidential run, he said in an interview on Fox News, “We’re not going to mess with Social Security as Republicans.”

    Haley did allude to this shift, arguing earlier in the debate that DeSantis had changed his mind on Social Security and retirement age. “So now suddenly, he’s going to tell you because he’s running for president, he’s not going to do it,” she said. “You can’t trust him.”

    In a Fox News interview in July, DeSantis appeared to entertain some changes to Social Security for people in their 30s or 40s. But during the debate — as he did in previous face-offs — DeSantis said he would not raise the retirement age “in the face of declining life expectancy.”

    “The problem now in the last five years is life expectancy is going down,” he said, repeating a misleading claim from an earlier debate. “So I don’t see how you can raise the retirement age when our life expectancy is collapsing in this country. That’s a huge problem in and of itself.”

    Life expectancy in the U.S. is not “collapsing.” Between 2019 and 2021, life expectancy did drop 2.4 years, largely as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. But that trend is already starting to reverse: According to the latest provisional data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, released in November, life expectancy at birth for 2022 was 77.5 years — an increase of 1.1 years from the year prior.

    Moreover, as we’ve noted before, what’s relevant for Social Security is life expectancy at retirement age — not birth — and the relative size of the working population compared with the retired population.

    “Increases in life expectancy are a factor in the long-range financing of Social Security; but other factors, such as the sheer size of the ‘baby boom’ generation, and the relative proportion of workers to beneficiaries, are larger determinants of Social Security’s future financial condition,” an archived agency webpage reads.

    In 2022, an average 65-year-old is expected to live another 18.9 years — generally longer than in previous decades.

    Transgender Issues

    DeSantis again scuffled with Haley over her record on transgender issues. He brought up 2016 legislation related to bathrooms and cherry-picked a statement by Haley on gender-affirming medical care for minors.

    We’ll address the history of the bathroom bill first.

    “When she was governor of South Carolina, they had a bill to protect girls from men going into the bathroom. She killed it and she’s bragged about it for years that that happened,” DeSantis said.

    “When it comes to the bathroom bill, I will say, first of all, that was 10 years ago,” Haley said. “We had a handful of kids that may have had that issue. And what I made very clear at that time in the state is: girls go into girls bathrooms, boys go into boys bathrooms, and if there are any other exceptions, they use a private bathroom.”

    As PolitiFact explained after the Dec. 6 Republican primary debate, it’s true that a bill had been proposed in 2016 in South Carolina to restrict public bathroom usage based on biological sex assigned at birth. But Haley’s role as governor in its failure isn’t clear.

    North Carolina had passed a similar bill that year (although it repealed the main provisions the following year after backlash), and several other states considered similar legislation.

    Haley told reporters at the time that she didn’t think the bill was necessary.

    The bill died in committee, so it was never presented to Haley to veto or sign into law.

    Later, in 2022, she claimed on Fox News that she had “strong-armed and said, ‘we are not going to have that in South Carolina,’” because it’s better to have a school work with parents to offer transgender children private bathrooms.

    So, it’s true that she didn’t support the bathroom bill, but it’s unclear how much she influenced its failure.

    As for Haley’s position on medical intervention for minors, DeSantis misled, as he did during the December debate. “She said she’s against the surgeries for minors,” DeSantis said. “That wasn’t what she said this summer. She was asked about it … and she said the law should stay out of it.”

    “I have never said that we should have any gender operations or surgery,” Haley responded.

    When Haley was asked on the June 5 episode of “CBS Mornings” what the law should allow for treatment of transgender youth, she answered: “I think the law should stay out of it and I think parents should handle it. This is a job for the parents to handle and then, when that child becomes 18, if they want to make more of a permanent change, they can do that.”

    In a May 3 interview, Haley specifically said, “You shouldn’t allow a child to have a gender-changing procedure until the age of 18 when they are an adult.”

    Haley on Border Wall

    DeSantis accused Haley of flip-flopping on the need to build more border wall, claiming that in 2016 she ridiculed then-presidential candidate Donald Trump for proposing it. Haley said she never opposed the wall and she was making the point that it was only part of the solution to illegal immigration.

    “Nikki Haley also opposed the border wall in 2016,” DeSantis claimed. “She, she ridiculed it when Donald Trump was for it. And I’m telling you, you need a wall. You can’t trust politicians to do this. If the wall’s there, it’s a physical fact of life.”

    As she did repeatedly in the debate, Haley responded by directing readers to desantislies.com.

    “I said you can’t just build a wall, you have to do more than build a wall,” Haley said. “It was having the wall and everything else. You can’t trust what Ron’s saying.”

    The website Haley directed viewers to includes a video of the comment in question, which Haley made at a National Press Club luncheon on Sept. 2, 2015, in discussing a comprehensive solution to illegal immigration.

    “If you notice, they’re all saying, ‘We want to secure the borders.’ That’s a big deal,” Haley said. “What does that mean to you in terms of your commitment to work with Congress to actually secure the border? Don’t say you’re just going to build a wall, because a wall’s not going to do it. You’ve got to have commitment of ground troops, equipment, money, all of that, to bring it together. Then you’re being serious about tackling illegal immigration.”

    During her presidential campaign, Haley has advocated building more border wall. During a trip to the border in April 2023, Haley pointed to fencing built by the Trump administration and said, “We need to finish what we started.”

    Response to George Floyd Killing

    As he has on the campaign trail, DeSantis criticized Haley for a statement she made after the killing of George Floyd on May 25, 2020.

    “Nikki Haley and I have a disagreement on the BLM stuff too, because she tweeted during this period of time that the death of George Floyd should be, quote, personal and painful for each and every American,” DeSantis said. “But people in Iowa had nothing to do with that, or Florida or South Carolina. She was virtue signaling to the left. She was accepting the narrative and she was trying to impress people who were never going to like us.”

    Haley said she found DeSantis’ comment “interesting” because he put out “a tweet that was very similar.” To which DeSantis replied, “That’s not true.”

    We’ll let readers decide how similar their statements were in the days after Floyd, a Black man, was killed after a white police officer, Derek Chauvin, kneeled on Floyd’s neck during an arrest in Minneapolis for about nine minutes. Chauvin was subsequently convicted of murdering Floyd.

    DeSantis was referring to a message Haley posted on X, then known as Twitter, on May 30, 2020.

    “It’s important to understand that the death of George Floyd was personal and painful for many,” Haley wrote in her post. “In order to heal, it needs to be personal and painful for everyone.”

    Haley also wrote, “Bad cops need to be held accountable and punished swiftly. They need to be made examples of and procedures should change but don’t underestimate the many good officers out there trying to keep all of us safe. Let’s fix the problems but not with more bad. Don’t add to the tragedy.”

    Shortly after their debate exchange, Haley’s team posted on X that DeSantis was “trying to rewrite history on George Floyd.” The post included a video of DeSantis saying, “So when I saw the video of that cop murdering George Floyd, I was just absolutely appalled by what I saw.” DeSantis said he was immediately assured by Florida law enforcement officials that it went against state training to put a knee on a suspect’s neck like that. DeSantis called for “swift accountability not just for the officer who had the knee but the other ones that didn’t do anything. I think everyone agrees that that’s just totally intolerable what happened.”

    That mirrors a statement DeSantis put out on June 1, 2020, saying: “Florida has zero tolerance for violence, rioting & looting. George Floyd’s murder was appalling & the MN perpetrators need to be brought to justice, but this cannot be used as a pretext for violence in our communities.”

    Original Report at Factcheck.org

    Sources

    Kropf, Schuyler. “Haley again pledges no gas tax increase.” Post and Courier. 3 Feb 2014.

    Roldan, Cynthia. “Grover Norquist urges legislators to support Nikki Haley’s tax trade-off.” Post and Coutier. 28 Jan 2015.

    Hutchins, Corey. “Tea Party Members Split on Tea, er, Grocery Tax.” Free Times. 9 Nov 2011.

    Wall Street Journal. Nov. 29 – Dec. 4 national survey. Dec 2023.

    2024 General Election: Haley vs Biden. RealClear Polling. accessed 11 Jan 2024.

    2024 General Election: DeSantis vs. Biden. RealClear Polling. accessed 11 Jan 2024.

    2024 General Election: Trump vs Biden. RealClear Polling. accessed 11 Jan 2024.

    Miller, Andrew Mark. “DeSantis blasts Haley’s leadership by bringing up George Floyd tweet: ‘Left-wing mindset.’” Fox News. 14 Nov 2023.

    Associated Press. “Two police bodycam videos in killing of George Floyd released.” 10 Aug 2020.

    Xiong, Chao and Sawyer, Liz. “Bodycam video shows officer pulled gun on George Floyd early on.” Minneapolis Star-Tribune. 16 Jul 2020.

    YouTube.com. “Governor Nikki Haley speaks at the National Press Club.” 2 Sep 2015.

    Abels, Grace. “DeSantis and Haley’s back and forth over bathroom bills in fourth GOP primary debate.” PolitiFact. 7 Dec 2024.

    South Carolina Senate. “S 1203 General Bill.” (As introduced 6 Apr 2016.)

    National Conference of State Legislatures. “‘Bathroom Bill’ Legislative Tracking.” Updated 24 Oct 2019.

    Shain, Andrew. “SC Gov. Haley: Transgender bathroom bill unnecessary.” Charlotte Observer. 7 Apr 2016.

    CBS Mornings. “GOP presidential candidate Nikki Haley on abortion, China, transgender issues.” 5 Jun 2023.

    Sullivan, Kate and Jeff Zeleny. “Nikki Haley calls for changing retirement age for Americans who are now in their 20s.” CNN. 12 Mar 2023.

    Farley, Robert. “Dueling Ads: Trump and DeSantis on Social Security and Medicare.” FactCheck.org. 20 Apr 2023.

    Montanaro, Domenico. “Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, top rival to Trump, jumps into the race for president.” NPR. 24 May 2023.

    Contorno, Steve. “DeSantis says GOP will not ‘mess with Social Security,’ as Democrats and Trump slam his past support for privatization.” 2 Mar 2023.

    Cariaga, Vance. “Social Security: Ron DeSantis Says No Cuts for Seniors — What About Younger Americans?” Yahoo Finance. 27 Jul 2023.

    Farley, Robert et al. “FactChecking the Third GOP Primary Debate.” FactCheck.org. 9 Nov 2023.

    Arias, Elizabeth et al. “Provisional Life Expectancy Estimates for 2022.” Vital Statistics Rapid Release. CDC. Nov 2023.

    “Life expectancy for men at the age of 65 years in the U.S. from 1960 to 2021.” Statista. Accessed 11 Jan 2024.

    “Life expectancy for women at the age of 65 years in the U.S. from 2001 to 2021.” Statista. Accessed 11 Jan 2024.

    Gross, Daniel J. “Haley backs efforts of faith groups to bring refugees to Spartanburg.” The State. 22 Apr 2015.

    Self, Jamie et al. “SC lawmakers ask Gov. Haley to reject refugees, ‘potential terrorists.’” The State. 16 Nov 2016.

    Letter to Secretary of State John Kerry from Gov. Nikki Haley. 16 Nov 2015.

    “2015 Paris Terror Attacks Fast Facts.” CNN. 2 Nov 2023.

    Fantz, Ashley et al. “More than half the nation’s governors say Syrian refugees not welcome.” CNN. 19 Nov 2015.

    “Refugee Arrivals By State And Nationality.” Refugee Processing Center, State Department. Accessed 10 Jan. 2024.

    Email to FactCheck.org from Matt Wolking, spokesman, Never Back Down. 17 Oct. 2023.

    U.S. Customs and Border Protection. “Southwest Land Border Encounters.” Accessed 10 Jan 2024.

    House Homeland Security Committee, Republican staff. “Factsheet: Final Fy23 Numbers Show Worst Year At America’s Borders—Ever.” 26 Oct 2023.

    Farley, Robert. “Cotton Distorts Border Apprehension Impact.” FactCheck.org. 3 Feb. 2022.

    U.S. Customs and Border Protection. “Nationwide Enforcement Encounters: Title 8 Enforcement Actions and Title 42 Expulsions.” Accessed 10 Jan. 2024.

    Long, Colleen. “Title 42 has ended. Here’s what it did, and how US immigration policy is changing.” Associated Press. 12 May 2023.

    Sacchetti, Maria et al. “U.S. released more than 2.3 million migrants at border since 2021, data show.” Washington Post. 6 Jan. 2024.

    Do you appreciate our work? Please consider one of the following ways to sustain us.

    MBFC Ad-Free 

    or

    MBFC Donation

     

    [ad_2]

    Media Bias Fact Check

    Source link

  • Another Trumpless Debate Is Another Exercise in Futility

    Another Trumpless Debate Is Another Exercise in Futility

    [ad_1]

    The GOP shit show will go on Wednesday night—but once again without its biggest star. And while the second Republican debate is, in theory, an opportunity for seven of Donald Trump’s competitors to audition for his lead role, it’s not clear whether enough people are tuning in for any of this to matter. “Sans Trump…these debates just aren’t big-time TV, because the GOP primary race has become a snoozer,” as an ad buyer told Semafor’s Max Tani, who reported Wednesday that Fox News cut its rate for a 30-second spot by more than half from the first debate to the second, which will be hosted by Fox Business Network and Univision.

    The rate cut is, of course, understandable: That first go-around in Milwaukee last month—which Trump also skipped in favor of a fawning interview with Tucker Carlson—did little to alter the landscape of the 2024 race, as my colleague Charlotte Klein noted. None of the candidates made a dent in the former president’s formidable lead; few even tried to mount a serious attack on him; and the night ended without much clarity on who in this bunch will become the top pick for the GOP’s anti-Trump wing. We shouldn’t expect Wednesday night’s showdown at the Reagan Library in California to be any different.

    “I just don’t see a path for anybody that’s not Donald Trump right now,” as Senator Kevin Cramer—who is supporting North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum’s longshot bid for the party nod— conceded to the Washington Post this week.

    But Trump’s opponents are still holding out hope: Ron DeSantis, his next closest competitor who has been plummeting in the polls, is looking to reestablish himself as a serious contender; Mike Pence, his former vice president, is trying to get out of his old boss’s shadow; Chris Christie will attempt to keep his fantasy of restoring the pre-Trump GOP alive; Nikki Haley will look to build off her comparatively strong first debate performance; and Vivek Ramaswamy will once again try to steamroll the rest of the field. (Burgum and Tim Scott, meanwhile, will surely be content to make any impression at all.)

    But they have a lot of ground to make up against Trump—and they’re running out of time to do so. “This debate, it’ll be interesting to see whether or not folks realize that the sand is going through the hourglass pretty quickly right now,” Republican strategist Kevin Madden, who worked on Mitt Romney’s 2008 and 2012 campaigns, told the Associated Press.

    Perhaps they’ll feel that sense of urgency and actually find the courage to go after the former president—something most of them were reluctant to do last time around, in fear of running afoul of his base. But without Trump there himself, will anyone be watching to notice?

    [ad_2]

    Eric Lutz

    Source link

  • Donald Trump’s Rivals Are Once Again Hitting the Fox Debate Stage. Will Anything Change?

    Donald Trump’s Rivals Are Once Again Hitting the Fox Debate Stage. Will Anything Change?

    [ad_1]

    The 2024 Republican candidates who are not named Donald Trump had an opportunity last month to reshape the dynamics of the race. Yet the stage in Milwaukee during the first Republican primary debate, hosted by Fox News, was more than ever a gathering of the junior varsity, who, in their attempts to throw punches and differentiate themselves in Trump’s absence, only appeared to affirm his power. “They had a chance to make a first impression, and likely didn’t make too much of a dent,” Fox News host Dana Perino tells me. “And that’s reflected in the polling.” Trump continues to dominate by a wide margin, hitting a record high of 58.8% in national support this week, with his lead over candidates like Ron DeSantis only growing. “Where do they go from here, in terms of having a breakout moment?” Perino asks of the non-Trump hopefuls. “Remains to be seen.”

    Perino, the former White House press secretary who joined Fox News in 2009, is co-moderating the next Republican debate, which will take place at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library on September 27 and air on both Fox Business and Univision. She’ll share hosting duties with Fox News host Stuart Varney and Univision’s Ilia Calderón. “Ilia Calderón will be a part of our team, and we will be getting together in person this weekend as we prepare,” says Perino. “And I think that will be a value-add to our offering in that space.” 

    Dana Perino

    John Lamparski/Getty Images

    Other than teaming up with Univision, though, Fox’s second debate is shaping up to be more of the same, with a similar cast of characters likely qualifying and Trump once again reportedly snubbing the event in favor of his own counterprogramming. The political dynamics surrounding the debate haven’t changed either. Trump continues to hog the news cycle—the latest case being his Meet the Press sit-down that he used to reiterate his election lies—and his popularity has only grown despite being indicted in two different states and twice by the federal government. If his competitors—DeSantis, Chris Christie, Tim Scott, Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy, Doug Burgum, Asa Hutchinson, and Mike Pence—didn’t break through last time, and little else has changed in the contest, what is the point of the debate?

    “It’s a democratic process, and we should fulfill that,” says Perino. “No doubt, President Trump has a commanding and seemingly enduring lead. And yet you still have many Republicans who say they want a different choice, or they’re open to a second choice.”

    In lieu of the primary debate, Trump is planning a trip to Detroit, where he will address some 13,000 union autoworkers who began striking last week, according to The New York Times. “The UAW strike is a very interesting, vulnerable issue for Joe Biden, and there’s even talk of him going to see the strikers,” says Perino. “You have a primary campaign that’s going on, and then a former president and current president who are just trying to move beyond that, into a general election.”

    [ad_2]

    Charlotte Klein

    Source link

  • Vivek Ramaswamy Got to Introduce Himself, But the GOP Debate Showed Donald Trump’s Power

    Vivek Ramaswamy Got to Introduce Himself, But the GOP Debate Showed Donald Trump’s Power

    [ad_1]

    So, did that change anything?

    Ron DeSantis was weird and hostile. An extremely hyper Vivek Ramaswamy, after cribbing a quip from Barack Obama in his introduction, sold himself as a truth-telling outsider. Chris Christie threw jabs at Donald Trump, who Mike Pence—bland as ever—tried his best to differentiate himself from without running afoul of the MAGA faithful. And the low-pollers, including North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, fresh off a basketball injury, tried their best to have a moment that could catapult them out of the basement. There were surprises: Nikki Haley laid the blame on Republicans, not Democrats, over spending; Burgum, the first of the field to pull out his pocket Constitution, offered an almost measured answer on abortion, while his stage-mates like DeSantis ranted about so-called “post-birth” abortion (isn’t this just…murder?); and even the Fox News audience seemed to boo Ramaswamy for calling climate change a “hoax.” There were strong barbs, including Christie comparing Ramaswamy to ChatGPT. But the question after the first debate is the same as it was heading into it: Will any of this actually matter?

    Trump—who snubbed the proceedings in favor of a sit-down with Tucker Carlson, telling the former Fox News host that it “doesn’t make sense” to indulge his lower polling competitors—entered the night with polling higher than the eight debaters combined. And while Milwaukee might have some impact on the order of candidates two through nine (as ABC News pointed out, Ramaswamy led in Google searches during the debate), it’s unclear any of these hopefuls did much to take the leader down a peg.

    Trump’s absence, in some ways, allowed for a more issue-focused evening—we got talk of tax cuts and spending, Ukraine and China and the border, without the former president steamrolling anybody, as is his preferred debate tactic. But it also gave his acolytes, like DeSantis and Ramaswamy, most notably, room to do the steamrolling instead. “We’re not school children,” DeSantis said after hosts Brett Baier and Martha MacCallum asked for a show of hands of who, among the eight candidates, believe in climate change.

    Some of them sure did act like it sometimes, though. Ramaswamy cast himself as the leader of a “cold cultural civil war” and seemed the distillation of the dangerous extremism of the Trump-era GOP. DeSantis suggested he would order a military invasion in Mexico “on day one” of his presidency. And Tim Scott, a non-factor all night, kept trying to stand between the playground bullies by saying, Can’t we all just get along?

    On one matter, most did: “If former President Trump is legally convicted, would you continue to endorse him as your party’s candidate?”

    All but Asa Hutchinson, the former Arkansas governor, and Christie, the most viable of the anti-Trump candidates, said yes. That includes Pence, who Trump supporters wanted to hang on January 6 for declining to help him overturn his loss to Joe Biden, and DeSantis, who seemed to look around to see what his fellow rivals would do before raising his hand.

    [ad_2]

    Eric Lutz

    Source link

  • Why Vivek Ramaswamy Could Crush It at the First Republican Debate

    Why Vivek Ramaswamy Could Crush It at the First Republican Debate

    [ad_1]

    The winner of next week’s first Republican primary debate is likely to be the candidate who exceeds expectations. So the bar is very high for someone like Ron DeSantis, who started the campaign with a lot of name ID, buckets of money, and a ton of buzz.

    The bar is very low, however, for someone like Vivek Ramaswamy, the entrepreneur who has no previous political experience to his name, and virtually zero name recognition.

    But there’s no selling him short. He’s a Harvard- and Yale-educated son of Indian immigrants and he made millions in the biotech and pharmaceutical industries. He’s also so unabashedly pro-Trump it can often seem like he’s campaigning not for the top slot but for a position in a Trump cabinet. Starting with his fawning, almost breathless praise for the guy. Starting with his posture that seems to out-Trump Donald Trump himself. Starting with a commitment, if he’s elected, to pardon the former president. Full stop.

    Ramaswamy’s policy ideas are wacky—and out of sync with his own personal narrative. Despite being only 38 years old (just three years over the Constitution’s minimum age limit to hold the highest office in the land), he wants to raise the voting age to 25 unless the 18-year-old can pass a citizenship test or has served for six months in the military or as a first responder. Despite his own family’s immigrant history, he wants to eliminate the constitutional right of birthright citizenship.

    Oh, and there’s more, much more. He wants to use the US military against Mexican cartels. He thinks the NRA should help arm every Taiwanese family with AK-47s. He says that he will stop measuring carbon dioxide emissions as president. He believes America should cut the federal bureaucracy by 75%, including the elimination of the FBI.

    And yet, despite a head-shaking agenda, mind-boggling ideas (including questioning the government’s explanation of the 9/11 attacks), and a whiplash-inducing reaction from observers who see him as a wholly unvarnished newcomer to the game, Ramaswamy is having a moment, right this very instant. He is now polling third in many polls, and second in one recent survey. (So it’s no surprise that a pro-DeSantis super PAC has reportedly advised the Florida governor “to take a sledgehammer” to him in the debate.)

    Ramaswamy has adopted a Pete Buttegieg/Beto O’Rourke media strategy, which means he does interviews anytime, anywhere, with almost anybody. But just being media savvy doesn’t fully explain what’s powering his campaign.

    I believe there’s one word to explain the Ramaswamy mini tsunami: confidence. Obviously, anyone who gets into the presidential arena isn’t shy. But most candidates, including and especially Trump, seem to believe only half of what they say, happy to repeat poll-tested mantras in pursuit of support. But watch Ramaswamy. He’s the truest of true believers, the kind who can convince voters by the mere power of his convictions, whether they are, indeed, genuine or not.

    During the George W. Bush campaigns (for which I served as chief media strategist), I worked closely with his talented press secretary, Karen Hughes. She was a good example of the power of confidence. On numerous occasions I saw her wear down reporters—sometimes yours truly, and sometimes even Bush himself—not so much because of the content of her concepts but by the tenacity of her convictions and ferocity of her persuasive passion. She would bear down on you with her blue malamute eyes, possessed of such intensity that you would ultimately just yield to her, thinking, Jeez, if she believes this strongly about it, it must be true.

    Ramaswamy, however, is a policy confidence man—the type of snake-oil-spouting, bullshit artist that gave rise to the term con man. He can dazzle an audience with his unshakable certainty. He may be often wrong, but he’s never in doubt. This is a man who had no reservations about rapping to an Eminem song at the Iowa State Fair.

    Which brings us to the upcoming inaugural debate (which Trump may or may not attend). Don’t underestimate confidence, especially its power during a political showdown. I’ve coached presidential candidates for debates, and in my view, the number one factor in winning over the pundits and viewers, and by extension, the electorate, is instilling in them an unnatural dose of confidence.

    Ramaswamy is a seasoned yapper. He can talk his way into and out of almost any argument. He can run circles around almost any opponent. He can lunge and parry like a fencer. He can twist himself in so many rhetorical knots, all while appearing to be so reasonable that he can pivot your own hard-and-fast opinion on a dime.

    So don’t be surprised if Ramaswamy steals some hearts, minds, and headlines at the debate. I can imagine viewers shaking their heads and thinking, I’m not even sure what he said, but I sure liked the way he said it.

    [ad_2]

    Mark McKinnon

    Source link

  • Fox News’ Debate Could Put Trump’s GOP Opponents in a “Minefield,” Moderator Martha MacCallum Says

    Fox News’ Debate Could Put Trump’s GOP Opponents in a “Minefield,” Moderator Martha MacCallum Says

    [ad_1]

    On August 23, candidates for the Republican presidential nomination will gather for the first time together on the debate stage in Milwaukee. One thing they have in common: They’re all being crushed in the polls by Donald Trump, the front-runner who may not even show up. Regardless, the former president will loom large over the Fox News–hosted event—particularly when it comes to the multiple criminal indictments he is facing. “It will absolutely be incumbent upon them to address [Trump’s criminal charges],” Fox News’ Martha MacCallum, who is co-moderating the debate along with Bret Baier, says of the other Republican candidates. “Voters need to hear how they see it, and the option that they’re trying to provide. It’s very tricky territory for these candidates. They know that well,” MacCallum says. “It’s kind of a minefield.”

    Eight candidates have thus far met the Republican National Committee’s qualifications for a spot on the debate stage—Trump, Ron DeSantis, Tim Scott, Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy, Chris Christie, Doug Burgum, and Mike Pence—but none besides Trump have really gained traction. It’s particularly challenging to do at a time when the former president is dominating not only the polls, but, with his myriad charges, the news. “He’s sort of sucking all the oxygen out of the room,” says MacCallum, who sees the debate as an “important starting point” for those in the rest of the field to distinguish themselves. “This is a very high-stakes moment for them, and not everybody will really survive the process deeper than perhaps Iowa,” says MacCallum.

    Debates have often been an opportunity for candidates to demonstrate their differences on policy, but at this point in the GOP primary, cultural issues such as LGBTQ+ rights and school curricula have commanded the conversation. MacCallum says she thinks such cultural issues “will certainly come up on the debate stage,” but “when you look at what people care about, it’s not high on the list,” compared to foreign policy and the economy. Candidates’ answers on abortion are another detail that she thinks voters will be paying close attention to.

    Undeniably though, how candidates handle questions about Trump—who many have been unwilling or reluctant to criticize—will be top of mind for many viewers. “The goal at this moment is for them to get through Trump,” says MacCallum. “They have to define themselves in a way that makes them stand out with voters and also contrast themselves to the alternative, which is the former president. So it’s very tricky—he has a lot of support out there, we see that in the numbers.” What’s less clear is “what the impact will be of these court dates that he has that are just stacked up like planes waiting to take off at JFK.”

    Speaking of planes, it’s easy to picture a scenario where the public is watching Trump’s on the tarmac on the afternoon of the debate, waiting to see whether he’ll show up or not. While his calculus could be evolving due to his worsened legal exposure, he’s been vocal about considering skipping the event, questioning the point of debating when he’s so far ahead of everyone else in the polls and publicly attacking Fox News for not giving him enough coverage and promoting DeSantis. Executives from Fox are said to be scrambling to convince him to participate, including Fox News president Jay Wallace and CEO Suzanne Scott, who reportedly appealed to him during a recent private dinner at his golf club in Bedminster, New Jersey. Network personalities, meanwhile, have been making their own appeals on air.

    “Certainly we would like for him to be there,” says MacCallum, “and I think that the American people deserve an opportunity to watch the former president against the people who are his contenders. Yes, at this moment, most of them are far behind him in the polls. But that’s just a moment in time, and that can change if he is not there.”

    (Complicating all of this: The RNC has reportedly told Trumpworld that he needs to make a final decision at least 48 hours in advance for security and logistics reasons. Further, Trump last week said he won’t sign the RNC’s loyalty pledge to support the eventual GOP presidential nominee, which is required of all candidates.)

    I asked MacCallum whether she thinks candidates’ views on the 2020 election will be a focal point in 2024 races; just last week, DeSantis made news by merely stating the obvious fact that Joe Biden is the president and Trump lost the election. “I think there’s a lot of desire to look forward. That being said, these trials and issues push that question into this forum, and it has to be dealt with and addressed,” said MacCallum. “I think relitigating the outcome is not really where most people are focused at this point.” I noted that Trump has spent the past three years relitigating the outcome, an effort at the heart of his latest indictment. “Absolutely,” said MacCallum. “They all know that they’re gonna have to be clear on where they stand on it.”

    [ad_2]

    Charlotte Klein

    Source link

  • Trump Will Likely Sign Pledge to Support GOP Nominee: Chris Christie

    Trump Will Likely Sign Pledge to Support GOP Nominee: Chris Christie

    [ad_1]

    GOP presidential candidate Chris Christie said Sunday that he expects former President Donald Trump to sign the Republican National Committee’s pledge to support the eventual Republican nominee—even as Trump continues to refuse to do so.

    “I would not be the least bit surprised if sometime around Sunday or Monday of next week, that he signs the pledge and he shows up on the stage on Wednesday,” the former New Jersey governor said to Jonathan Karl on ABC’s “This Week.”

    Trump has balked at signing the pledge ever since the RNC made it one of the requirements to take part in the first primary debate, which will be held in Milwaukee on August 23.

    “I wouldn’t sign the pledge,” Trump said in a Newsmax interview on Wednesday. “Why would I sign a pledge if there are people on there that I wouldn’t have?” The frontrunner Republican candidate went on to criticize Christie, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, and former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson by name.

    At the same time, Trump said he’d “like to” participate. “I’ve actually gotten very good marks on debating talents,” he said. “But you want to be, you know, they want a smart president. They want somebody that’s going to be smart. So we have to do the smart thing.”

    The former president famously refused to agree to endorse the eventual GOP nominee in 2015. He later signed a loyalty pledge, and then revoked it once he took a commanding lead.

    On Sunday, Christie argued that Trump’s primary motivation in dangling his participation over the debate is to keep attention laser-focused on him and his campaign. “This is about Donald Trump keeping the attention on Donald Trump, and he’s doing pretty well,” Christie said, adding that Trump’s comments about the debate amount to “nonsensical theater.”

    Asked whether he thought the RNC would forbid Trump from taking part in the stage if he refused to agree to their terms, Christie acknowledged, “They are serious about wanting this pledge signed.”

    Faced with withering criticism from candidates like Christie and Hutchinson, RNC chairwoman Ronna McDaniel has defended the pledge. “It’s the Republican Party nomination, and the pledge is staying and anybody who wants to seek the nomination of our party should pledge to support the voters,” she said last month.

    For his part, Christie told Karl on Sunday that he had not yet been presented with the pledge. He speculated that was because the RNC was still verifying that he’d collected enough individual donors to meet the debate’s threshold requirement.

    RNC rules require that candidates show over 40,000 unique donors with at least 200 donors in 20 unique states, in addition to polling over 1% in three qualifying national polls (or two national and one early nominating state poll) to make the stage. According to Politico, Trump, Christie, DeSantis, former Vice President Mike Pence, former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, South Carolina Senator Tim Scott, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, and North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum have all passed those thresholds.

    At the end of Christie’s interview, Karl asked him whether he thought the pledge should include “a little caveat” allowing candidates to revoke their support if the nominee is a convicted felon. “Who knows? Maybe it will, Jon,” Christie replied. “We’ll see how it develops over the next week or so.”

    [ad_2]

    Jack McCordick

    Source link

  • First GOP Presidential Debate Is Next Month, But No One Seems to Know Who’s Attending

    First GOP Presidential Debate Is Next Month, But No One Seems to Know Who’s Attending

    [ad_1]

    The first GOP debate of the 2024 presidential race is next month, and it’s still unclear which candidates will make the stage. Recent polling and fundraising numbers provide a mixed bag of news for several of Donald Trump’s critics who are angling to confront the former president in Milwaukee. Former Vice President Mike Pence, despite polling in a solid 4th place in the first Republican National Committee-approved poll, posted anemic fundraising numbers on Friday that question whether he’ll be able to qualify.

    A Morning Consult poll released Tuesday—the first to officially meet the fairly stringent standards set by the RNC— showed eight candidates meeting the RNC’s 1% threshold, including former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie (3%) and former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson (1%). Both Christie and Hutchinson have both been vocal critics of Trump, so their presence in Milwaukee would likely have a significant effect on the tenor of the debate.

    Only Trump and Ron DeSantis reached double digits, with the former president reaching 57% and the Florida Governor notching 17%. Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy (8%), Pence (7%), former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley (3%), and South Carolina Senator Tim Scott (3%), rounded out the qualifying pack.

    The candidates who failed to meet the 1% threshold in the Morning Consult poll were North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, Miami Mayor Francis Suarez, and former Texas GOP Rep representative Will Hurd.

    By August 21—two days before the debate is set to take place—candidates must boast over 40,000 unique donors with at least 200 donors in 20 unique states, in addition to polling over 1% in three qualifying national polls (or two national and one early nominating state poll).

    For some of the candidates, meeting the fundraising standard has been more of a challenge. Last week, Hutchinson said he only had about 5,000 individual donors. On Friday, he told “CNN This Morning” that he believes he will eventually reach the threshold. “It’s just a question of how quickly we can get there, but we want to be on that debate stage,” he said.

    Pence has also failed to meet the donor requirement. “You bet we’ll be on that debate stage. We’re working every day to get to that threshold,” he told CNN’s Kaitlan Collins on Tuesday. “I’m sure we’re going to be there.” On Friday, multiple outlets reported that Pence had raised a measly $1.2 million for his campaign. He has spent little on online advertising—by one measure, one-fortieth of what Ramaswamy has spent—but his campaign said Friday that it was planning on investing in a direct mail campaign to try and juice its donor numbers.

    Other flagging candidates have gone with a more unorthodox approach. Burgum has pioneered a questionably legal scheme of offering $20 gift cards for $1 donations, while a Suarez Super PAC is giving small donors a chance to win a year of college tuition. Both are still below the 40,000 mark.

    Christie, who previously struggled to solicit small donations, announced last week that he’d met the threshold. “I am glad to be able to tell people tonight, Anderson, that last night we went past 40,000 unique donors in just 35 days,” Christie told CNN’s Anderson Cooper on Wednesday.

    Still, the major question haunting the debate is whether the former president, who now faces two federal indictments, will even show up. Last week, Trump campaign advisor Jason Miller said Trump is “unlikely” to participate. “It really wouldn’t make much sense for him to go and debate right now with a bunch of folks who are down at three, four and five percent,” Miller said.

    [ad_2]

    Jack McCordick

    Source link

  • Will Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis Ever Meet on the Debate Stage?

    Will Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis Ever Meet on the Debate Stage?

    [ad_1]

    As Ron DeSantis kicked off his presidential campaign last week, Donald Trump was asked during a golf tournament about meeting the Florida governor on the debate stage. “They say he’s not a very good debater, but maybe he is,” Trump said of his acolyte turned adversary. “We’ll find out. Maybe we’ll find out. Because unless he gets close, why would anybody debate?”

    The question posed by Trump only adds to the uncertainty around the Republican primary debates, which are supposed to begin this summer. The Republican National Committee announced in April that the first debate would take place in August in Milwaukee, hosted by Fox News, along with Rumble, the conservative streaming platform, and the Young America’s Foundation as partners. But the RNC has yet to publicly announce a specific date or venue, nor the criteria for candidates to qualify for them. (Fox News declined to provide any details beyond pointing to the RNC’s prior comments.) Even less information is known about the second debate, other than that it will take place at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Southern California. 

    “It strikes me that they’re way behind schedule on everything,” said one media executive involved in discussions with the RNC. “I sort of expected by now that we would at least know the date of the first debate, and at least something of a schedule for the rest of the fall.”

    Though the RNC has yet to put out the criteria for candidates hoping to debate, chair Ronna McDaniel has been in frequent communication with candidates and campaigns about the process, according to a source familiar with discussions. Still, by this time in 2015, the last presidential cycle with a wide open Republican primary, the date and venue for the first debate had already been reported, and the GOP, after streamlining the debate schedule, was wrestling with how to fit the robust 2016 field onstage. 

    Behind the scenes, networks have been pitching the RNC to host debates, with Axios reporting Friday that CNN chief Chris Licht told the RNC “that CNN would air the debate not just on its linear feed, but also potentially on the linear networks of other Warner Bros. Discovery channels.” In addition, the outlet noted that “Licht also has offered to partner with a conservative-leaning outlet on the debates,” which could “include giving a journalist from the partner outlet a co-moderator spot.” Meanwhile, NBC News is making its pitch with Lester Holt as moderator alongside colleagues from CNBC and Telemundo. According to Axios, DeSantis’s team has pushed back against the RNC about CNN or NBC hosting debates. 

    Low-polling candidates—like Asa Hutchinson, Nikki Haley, Tim Scott, and Vivek Ramaswamy—would presumably jump at the chance to enter a nationally televised debate—and DeSantis, running well behind Trump in the polls, could surely benefit. Asked whether DeSantis plans to participate in the primary debates, a spokesperson for the campaign referred Vanity Fair to a quote he recently gave Ben Shapiro, in which he said, “Debates are an important part of the process” and that he “look[s] forward to participating in them.” (Still, DeSantis also recently told Glenn Beck that “corporate media…shouldn’t be involved in our process because they’re hostile to us as Republicans.”) 

    By the time of the first debate, there could be several more declared candidates, like Mike Pence, Chris Christie, and Chris Sununu. The show will likely go on even if Trump skips it. “If we get announced as a sponsor of a debate, we’ll have that debate whether or not candidates decide to show up,” said the media executive involved in discussions.

    Trump is likely to opt out of “at least one of the first two debates of the 2024 Republican presidential nominating contest,” The New York Times reported last month. The former president, per the Times, “has made it clear that he does not want to breathe life into his Republican challengers by sharing the stage with them.” Trump, who opted out of a primary campaign debate in 2016, suggested as much during a talk radio appearance in April, claiming, “People don’t debate when they have these massive leads” in polling. He has privately complained, per multiple outlets, that the first debate is too early, and publicly grumbled about the setting of the second, the Reagan Library, where Washington Post publisher Fred Ryan is the longtime chairman of the board. 

    [ad_2]

    Charlotte Klein

    Source link