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  • These stock watchers nailed the market’s melt-up, but now they’re bracing for a fall. Here’s what to watch.

    These stock watchers nailed the market’s melt-up, but now they’re bracing for a fall. Here’s what to watch.

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    Similar to the buzzy intrigue behind the mashup viewing of the tonally different Barbie and the Oppenheimer movies, the market is rallying to its own oddball double feature: higher interest rates and economic uncertainty.

    What could go wrong? That is what some stock-market specialists are wondering.

    On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    -0.13%
    notched a 10th consecutive positive close, marking the longest win streak for the blue-chip benchmark since Aug. 7, 2017, according to the team at Dow Jones Market Data.

    To say that it has been a remarkable run-up is, perhaps, an understatement for some assets. Carvana
    CVNA,
    -2.38%    ,
    a left-for-dead used-car retailer, whose stock had surged by 1,100% at its peak so far this year, before retreating somewhat, is a perfect example of the fervor surrounding risky assets.

    It feels as if buyers are crazed, even as the Federal Reserve is set next week to raise interest rates a quarter of a percentage point, marking the 11th time (since March of 2022) that the central bank has increased benchmark interest rates after pausing in June to assess the inflation backdrop.

    Read: U.S. inflation slows again, CPI shows

    The Wall Street Journal this week described the investing environment as hitting a “fever pitch” with “risk-on” assets the most popular they have been since late 2021—right before stocks entered the longest bear market in decades.”

    The surprising velocity at which the bearish miasma from earlier this year has dissipated is also noteworthy, considering the concerns around stubbornly high inflation and incessant fear of a Fed-induced recession.

    At Friday’s close of trade, the Dow was off a mere 4.3% from its January record high reached in 2022, the S&P 500 is about 5.4% shy of its Jan. 2, 2022 closing high. Soberingly, the tech-weighted Nasdaq Composite Index
    COMP,
    -0.22%
    remains off nearly 13%.

    Now, however, may be time to take profits, some pros seem to caution.

    Stifel’s chief equity strategist Barry Bannister told MarketWatch via email that the lagged effects of the Fed’s barrage of tightening, combined with stingy lending — among other factors — would likely be triggers for a market pullback, if not an economic retrenchment.

     “In total, those leading indicators will keep economic growth soft,” Bannister said, also referencing flagging manufacturing.

    In large part, that is why he’s calling for sideways action or a possible retreat of about 3% for the S&P 500
    SPX,
    +0.03%
    to 4,400.

    Bannister’s recent call is worth heeding because he nailed the first part of a two-pronged prediction for 2023, when he referred to it as a year of two halves.

    Back in January, he wrote:

    2023 may be a year of 2 halves, with the S&P 500 peaking mid-2023. The S&P 500 in late 2023 may give back some or all of 2023 gains.

    The Stifel analyst sees a heightened recession risk for 2024.

    Meanwhile, Michael Gayed, who also runs the Lead-Lag Report and is a portfolio manager at Tidal Financial Group, warned of the perils of investors’ rabid buying, in a recent report. Similar to Bannister, he also predicted a strong first half of 2023 followed by a retreat in latter part of the year.

    Jacques Cesar, a former managing partner at Oliver Wyman who now works on market valuation for the firm, shared a similar sentiment to those two…but with some nuances, in an interview with MarketWatch.

    “Right now, we are in a melt-up,” he said. “And Rule No. 1 about a melt-up, don’t short a melt-up,” he said, referring to making bearish bets that the market will fall soon.

    “Is the market too high? Yes,” Cesar said. “But is there a signal to short? Absolutely not,” he said.

    The market valuation pro, says investors find themselves in a Russian nesting doll of market conditions: “We are in a sub-cyclical bull in a cyclical bear in a suprasecular bull.”

    His assumption is that the current melt-up in markets will reverse but cautions that predicting the precise timing is impossible.

    Useful signs to look for will be decelerating market pricing and then reversing coupled with trading volume picking up as stocks slide.

    Cesar also predicts a pullback in 2024, if not a recession, and said that downturn will be followed by a return to a suprasecular, long-term bull run in 2025.

    Although, there won’t be an apparent trigger for the market and economic slump, Cesar says eroding consumer savings. built up during the pandemic, will be depleted by the end of 2023.

    As for inflation, Cesar says it has been dropping like a stone and pointed to the New York Fed’s Underlying Inflation Gauge as an early (but perhaps unheeded) signal that pricing pressures have been steadily receding.

    So much so that disinflation, a slowdown in the rate of inflation, may be a corporate concern in coming quarters.

    He said companies, which enjoyed healthy pricing power during the inflationary period, will be hurt in the short-term by disinflation in the short term.

    “As you go into disinflation, the margins get squeezed,” he said.

    Bannister says oversold parts of the market like banks
    KRE,
    -1.26%

    KBE,
    -1.20%    ,
    industrials
    XLI,
    -0.47%
    and basic materials
    XLB,
    +0.01%    ,
    might be better opportunities for investors in the third quarter than growth-oriented tech plays like Tesla
    TSLA,
    -1.10%    ,
    for example.

    In the end, bulls (and bears), similar to moviegoers are wading back into a market that had been written off at the start of the year. The major cinematic question? Will they will be partying with Barbie or getting blown up with Oppenheimer?

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  • S&P 500, Nasdaq post worst day in month after strong data fuels worry about Fed rate hikes

    S&P 500, Nasdaq post worst day in month after strong data fuels worry about Fed rate hikes

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    The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes recorded their worst day in almost a month on Monday, after a hotter-than-expected U.S. services-sector reading fueled concerns that the Federal Reserve may need to be even more aggressive in its inflation battle.

    How stocks traded
    • The Dow Jones Industrial Average
      DJIA,
      -0.26%
      finished down 482.78 points, or 1.4%, at 33,947.10.

    • The S&P 500
      SPX,
      -1.79%
      ended 72.86 points lower, or 1.8%, at 3,998.84.

    • The Nasdaq Composite
      COMP,
      -11.01%
      closed down 221.56 points, or 1.9%, at 11,239.94.

    • Those were the largest declines for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite since Nov. 9, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

    Stocks finished mixed on Friday, although they clinched gains last week, following a robust November jobs report, which stoked fears that inflation might not be so easily defeated.

    What drove markets

    Strong wage growth numbers released Friday were followed up on Monday by a robust reading for the U.S. services sector — both of which helped to stoke fears that the Fed’s interest-rate hikes, along with the central bank’s modest balance-sheet unwind, haven’t had much of an impact on the tight labor market.

    The ISM barometer of U.S. business conditions in the service sector came in stronger than expected, rising to 56.5% in November, a healthy showing that signals the U.S. economy is still expanding at a steady pace.

    “If nothing else, the ISM services report is being interpreted as very strong, and thus the economy is overheating and that means more Fed tightening,” said Will Compernolle, a senior economist at FHN Financial in New York. “Consumer resilience has proven to be more intense than I would have expected. In the two most interest-rate sensitive sectors — housing and autos — tightening has channeled into markets in meaningful ways.”

    But there has been so much pent-up demand, that higher interest rates haven’t been cooling overall spending as much as the Fed would like because companies are still having to fill a backlog of orders, he said via phone.

    In other economic data, the final November S&P Global U.S. services PMI edged up to 46.2 from 46.1, but remained in contractionary territory.

    November jobs data released on Friday showed average hourly wages grew over the past year by more than 5% as of November, beating economists’ expectations and stoking concerns that robust wage growth would continue to fuel inflation, market strategists said.

    Worries about a more-aggressive Fed also helped to drive Treasury yields higher, adding to the pressure on stocks. The yield on the 10-year note rose 9.6 basis points to 3.6% on Monday. Treasury yields move inversely to prices, and yields had fallen sharply over the past month, driven by shifting expectations about the pace of Fed rate hikes.

    Monday’s ISM services figure “surprised to the upside, suggesting that the economy is still running above its long-run sustainable path and that the Fed is going to have to slow the economy more than expected in 2023,” Bill Adams, the Dallas-based chief economist for Comerica Inc. CMA, said via phone.

    In other markets news, signs that China’s government is easing its COVID restrictions helped Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index
    HSI,
    +4.51%
    finish with a 4.5% gain.

    See also: Chinese ADRs and casino operators rally on signs of easing COVID

    Meanwhile, oil futures ended lower on Monday, a day after Sunday’s decision by OPEC and its allies to keep production quotas unchanged.

    Falling equity prices helped drive the CBOE Volatility Index
    VIX,
    +8.87%    ,
    also known as the VIX, back above 20 on Monday. The volatility gauge had fallen sharply in recent weeks as stocks rallied, potentially signaling complacency that could ultimately hurt stocks, said Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at BTIG, in a note to clients.

    Companies in focus

    ––Jamie Chisholm contributed reporting to this article.

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  • Dow down by more than 500 points as Fed officials point to more rate hikes, China protests rattle markets

    Dow down by more than 500 points as Fed officials point to more rate hikes, China protests rattle markets

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    U.S. stocks tumbled on Monday as protests in China raised the risks to global growth and Federal Reserve policy makers said more interest-rate increases are needed to control inflation.

    How stocks are trading
    • The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 523 points, or 1.5%, at 33,824, near its session low.

    • The S&P 500
      SPX,
      -1.65%
      retreated 68 points, or 1.7%, to 3,958.

    • The Nasdaq Composite shed 195 points, or 1.7%, dropping to 11,031.

    U.S. stocks had notched weekly gains last week for the second time in three weeks. The Dow rose 1.8%, the S&P 500 advanced 1.5% and the Nasdaq gained 0.7%.

    What’s driving markets

    Wall Street started the week in a downbeat mood as traders absorbed the impact of unrest in China and assessed interest-rate commentary by a pair of Fed officials on Monday.

    St. Louis Fed President James Bullard told MarketWatch that he favors more aggressive interest-rate hikes to contain inflation, and that the central bank will likely need to keep interest rates above 5% into 2024. Meanwhile, his colleague John Williams, president of the New York Fed, said that U.S. unemployment could climb to as high as 5% next year, versus October’s rate of 3.7%, in response to the central bank’s series of rate hikes.

    Overseas, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index
    HSI,
    -1.57%
    closed down by 1.6% and most equity indexes across Asia also fell, with the exception of India’s, on concerns about unrest in China. Those concerns also spilled over into commodity markets, where West Texas Intermediate crude for January delivery
    CLF23,
    +0.93%
     briefly fell to less than $74 per barrel before recovering and settling at $77.24 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Meanwhile, copper prices HG00 were off 0.9% at $3.594 per pound.

    “What people are worried about is the potential for protests in China to spread and whether the population is reaching its breaking point,” said Derek Tang, an economist at Monetary Policy Analytics in Washington. “At the same time, Fed speak is ramping up and the message is there’s more hikes to come. So investors aren’t finding relief.”

    Signs that economic activity in China will continue to be disrupted by the protests or by additional anti-COVID measures will likely continue to weigh on commodity prices, analysts said. Meanwhile, concerns about global growth helped to support government bond markets earlier on Monday, when the yield on the 10-year note
    TMUBMUSD10Y,
    3.693%
    briefly traded at its lowest level since October.

    The unprecedented waves of protest in China “have caused ripples of unease across financial markets, as worries mount about repercussions for the world’s second-largest economy,” said Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown. “As demonstrations spread across the country from Beijing to Xinjiang and Shanghai, reflecting rising anger about the zero-Covid policy, a sustained recovery in demand across the vast country appears even further away.”

    But the news wasn’t all bad: Reports of strong online Black Friday sales helped boost shares of Amazon.com Inc.
    AMZN,
    +0.29%    ,
    which were up 0.6%.

    Investors can expect more information about the health of the U.S. economy in what’s shaping up to be a busy week for U.S. economic data: Later this week, investors will receive the ADP employment report followed by the November jobs report. Revised data on third-quarter gross domestic product is due on Wednesday, along with the Fed’s Beige Book report. Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell is set to speak publicly on Wednesday, and a closely watched gauge of inflation is due on Thursday.

    Read: ‘We see major stock markets plunging 25% from levels somewhat above today’s,’ Deutsche Bank says

    Single-stock movers

    — Jamie Chisholm contributed to this article.

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  • Is the market bottom in? 5 reasons U.S. stocks could continue to suffer heading into next year.

    Is the market bottom in? 5 reasons U.S. stocks could continue to suffer heading into next year.

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    With the S&P 500 holding above 4,000 and the CBOE Volatility Gauge, known as the “Vix” or Wall Street’s “fear gauge,”
    VIX,
    +0.74%
    having fallen to one of its lowest levels of the year, many investors across Wall Street are beginning to wonder if the lows are finally in for stocks — especially now that the Federal Reserve has signaled a slower pace of interest rate hikes going forward.

    But the fact remains: inflation is holding near four-decade highs and most economists expect the U.S. economy to slide into a recession next year.

    The last six weeks have been kind to U.S. stocks. The S&P 500
    SPX,
    -0.03%
    continued to climb after a stellar October for stocks, and as a result has been trading above its 200-day moving average for a couple of weeks now.

    What’s more, after having led the market higher since mid-October, the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    +0.23%
    is on the cusp of exiting bear-market territory, having risen more than 19% from its late-September low.

    Some analysts are worried that these recent successes could mean that U.S. stocks have become overbought. Independent analyst Helen Meisler made her case for this in a recent piece she wrote for CMC Markets.

    “My estimation is that the market is slightly overbought on an intermediate-term basis, but could become fully overbought in early December,” Meisler said. And she’s hardly alone in anticipating that stocks might soon experience another pullback.

    Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson, who has become one of Wall Street’s most closely followed analysts after anticipating this year’s bruising selloff, said earlier this week that he expects the S&P 500 will bottom around 3,000 during the first quarter of next year, resulting in a “terrific” buying opportunity.

    With so much uncertainty plaguing the outlook for stocks, corporate profits, the economy and inflation, among other factors, here are a few things investors might want to parse before deciding whether an investable low in stocks has truly arrived, or not.

    Dimming expectations around corporate profits could hurt stocks

    Earlier this month, equity strategists at Goldman Sachs Group
    GS,
    +0.68%
    and Bank of America Merrill Lynch
    BAC,
    +0.24%
    warned that they expect corporate earnings growth to stagnate next year. While analysts and corporations have cut their profit guidance, many on Wall Street expect more cuts to come heading into next year, as Wilson and others have said.

    This could put more downward pressure on stocks as corporate earnings growth has slowed, but still limped along, so far this year, thanks in large part to surging profits for U.S. oil and gas companies.

    History suggests that stocks won’t bottom until the Fed cuts rates

    One notable chart produced by analysts at Bank of America has made the rounds several times this year. It shows how over the past 70 years, U.S. stocks have tended not to bottom until after the Fed has cut interest-rates.

    Typically, stocks don’t begin the long slog higher until after the Fed has squeezed in at least a few cuts, although during March 2020, the nadir of the COVID-19-inspired selloff coincided almost exactly with the Fed’s decision to slash rates back to zero and unleash massive monetary stimulus.


    BANK OF AMERICA

    Then again, history is no guarantee of future performance, as market strategists are fond of saying.

    Fed’s benchmark policy rate could rise further than investors expect

    Fed funds futures, which traders use to speculate on the path forward for the Fed funds rate, presently see interest-rates peaking in the middle of next year, with the first cut most likely arriving in the fourth quarter, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool.

    However, with inflation still well above the Fed’s 2% target, it’s possible — perhaps even likely — that the central bank will need to keep interest rates higher for longer, inflicting more pain on stocks, said Mohannad Aama, a portfolio manager at Beam Capital.

    “Everyone is expecting a cut in the second half of 2023,” Aama told MarketWatch. “However, ‘higher for longer’ will prove to be for the entire duration of 2023, which most folks haven’t modeled,” he said.

    Higher interest rates for longer would be particularly bad news for growth stocks and the Nasdaq Composite
    COMP,
    -0.52%    ,
    which outperformed during the era of rock-bottom interest rates, market strategists say.

    But if inflation doesn’t swiftly recede, the Fed might have little choice but to persevere, as several senior Fed officials — including Chairman Jerome Powell — have said in their public comments. While markets celebrated modestly softer-than-expected readings on October inflation, Aama believes wage growth hasn’t peaked yet, which could keep pressure on prices, among other factors.

    Earlier this month, a team of analysts at Bank of America shared a model with clients which showed that inflation might not substantially dissipate until 2024. According to the most recent Fed “dot plot” of interest rate forecasts, senior Fed policy makers expect rates will peak next year.

    But the Fed’s own forecasts rarely pan out. This has been especially true in recent years. For example, the Fed backed off the last time it tried to materially raise interest rates after President Donald Trump lashed out at the central bank and ructions rattled the repo market. Ultimately, the advent of the COVID-19 pandemic inspired the central bank to slash rates back to the zero bound.

    Bond market is still telegraphing a recession ahead

    Hopes that the U.S. economy might avoid a punishing recession have certainly helped to bolster stocks, market analysts said, but in the bond market, an increasingly inverted Treasury yield curve is sending the exact opposite message.

    The yield on the 2-year Treasury note
    TMUBMUSD02Y,
    4.479%
    on Friday was trading more than 75 basis points higher than the 10-year note
    TMUBMUSD10Y,
    3.687%
    at around its most inverted level in more than 40 years.

    At this point, both the 2s/10s yield curve and 3m/10s yield curve have become substantially inverted. Inverted yield curves are seen as reliable recession indicators, with historical data showing that a 3m/10s inversion is even more effective at predicting looming downturns than the 2s/10s inversion.

    With markets sending mixed messages, market strategists said investors should pay more attention to the bond market.

    “It’s not a perfect indicator, but when stock and bond markets differ I tend to believe the bond market,” said Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers.

    Ukraine remains a wild card

    To be sure, it’s possible that a swift resolution to the war in Ukraine could send global stocks higher, as the conflict has disrupted the flow of critical commodities including crude oil, natural gas and wheat, helping to stoke inflation around the world.

    But some have also imagined how continued success on the part of the Ukrainians could provoke an escalation by Russia, which could be very, very bad for markets, not to mention humanity. As Clocktower Group’s Marko Papic said: “I actually think the biggest risk to the market is that Ukraine continues to illustrate to the world just how capable it is. Further successes by Ukraine could then prompt a reaction by Russia that is non-conventional. This would be the biggest risk [for U.S. stocks],” Papic said in emailed comments to MarketWatch.

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  • Fed eyes slower rate hikes as recession threat grows

    Fed eyes slower rate hikes as recession threat grows

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    Senior officials at the Federal Reserve expect smaller increases in interest rates will “soon be appropriate” as the threat of recession grows.

    Although the Fed still expects rates to rise higher than previously forecast, senior officials are unsure just how much further they will go. Slower rate hikes, they say, would give them more time to evaluate the “lagging” effects on the economy amid the rising threat of a recession.

    “Short of some wild inflation report before the next meeting, 50 basis points sounds very reasonable in December. But the Fed is clearly not finished yet.”

    The Fed’s economic staff for the first time said a recession was possible in the next year, according to a detailed summary of the bank’s last strategy session in early November.

    The bank’s previous minutes have not mentioned the possibility of a recession.

    The main U.S. stock gauges
    SPX,
    +0.59%

    DJIA,
    +0.50%
    extended gains after the release of the Fed minutes.

    The Fed has quickly raised a key U.S. interest rate to a top range of 4% from near zero last spring in an effort to tame high inflation. Rising rates tend to reduce inflation by slowing the economy and depressing demand for goods and labor.

    Yet some economists and senior officials at the Fed also worry the central bank could spark a recession or a period of prolonged economic weakness if rates go too high.

    Some members said there was an increasing risk that the Fed’s actions “would exceed what was required” to bring inflation down to acceptable levels.

    In recent speeches, a few have suggested a “pause” in rate hikes might be warranted by early next year to see how they affect the economy. A rapid easing of inflationary pressures could strengthen their case.

    The rate of inflation exploded earlier this year to a 40-year high of 9.1% from almost zero during the early stages of the pandemic. It has since slowed to 7.7%.

    Earlier this month, the bank lifted the so-called fed funds rate by three-quarters of a point to a range of 3.75% to 4% — the third big rate increase in a row. Most U..S. loans such as mortgages and car loans are tied to the fed fund rate.

    In December, the Fed is likely to raise rates again, but markets are betting on a smaller 1/2-point increase. The minutes also suggest a smaller rate hike is likely.

    “Short of some wild inflation report before the next meeting, 50 bps sounds very reasonable in December,” senior economist Jennifer Lee of BMO Capital Markets said. “But the Fed is clearly not finished yet.”

    Senior Fed officials have repeatedly said they plan is to further raise rates in 2023 and then keep them high for an unspecified period of time to make sure inflation declines.

    Officials are less unified on just how high rates will go. Some want to stop at around 5% while others suggest they might need to go higher.

    Wall Street expects the Fed to raise its benchmark rate to 5% by next year.

    The Fed’s aggressive posture stems from the biggest surge in prices since the early 1980s.

    The Fed is aiming to bring down inflation to pre-pandemic levels of 2% or so, but they acknowledge it could take a while.

    Several Fed members also expressed worries that non-traditional financial institutions could amplify the problems for the U.S. economy if higher rates exposed them to greater instability.

    The troubles at the crypto-currency firm FTX were emerging just as the Fed meeting took place.

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  • Housing starts fall again as high mortgage rates scare off U.S. home buyers

    Housing starts fall again as high mortgage rates scare off U.S. home buyers

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    The numbers: Construction on new houses fell 4.2% in October as high mortgage rates put off buyers and forced builders to scale back, a situation that’s likely to continue through 2023.

    U.S. housing starts slowed to an annual pace of 1.43 million last month from 1.49 million in September. That figure reflects how many homes would be built in 2022 if construction took place at same rate over the entire year as it did in October.

    Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected housing starts to register a rate of 1.41 million after adjusting for the typical seasonal swings in demand.

    New construction hit a record 1.8 million in April before tapering off.

    The number of permits, meanwhile, slipped 2.4% to a rate of 1.53 million, down sharply from a record 1.9 million last December.

    Permits foreshadow how many houses are likely to be built in the months ahead, assuming a stable real estate market. But a major increase in mortgage rates this year has depressed demand and forced builders to scale back plans.

    Key details: Single-family home construction fell 6.1% to an annual rate of 855,000 in October. Projects with five units or more registered a 556,000 rate, little changed from the prior month.

    Housing starts are down 9% from a year ago, when mortgage rates briefly dipped below 3%.

    Permits have fallen 10% from a year earlier.

    Big picture: The highest mortgage rates in several decades have stifled new construction and are likely to do so through the next year or longer. The rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage recently topped 7%, more than double the rate a year ago.

    While the U.S. has an acute need for more housing, fewer people can now afford to buy a home. Home prices are starting to come off record highs, but not by much.

    Looking ahead: “Higher mortgage rates continue to exact a heavy toll on new construction,” said Richard Moody, chief economist of Regions Financial.

    Market reaction: The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    -0.18%
    and S&P 500
    SPX,
    -1.01%
    fell in Thursday trades.

    Also read: The median income needed to buy a typical home is over $88,000 — $40,000 more than before the pandemic

    Related: Home prices will fall in 2023, but affordability will be at its worst since 1985, research firm says

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  • Dow rises more than 400 points as stocks extend rally after best week since June

    Dow rises more than 400 points as stocks extend rally after best week since June

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    U.S. stocks advanced on Monday, adding to their gains after the best week for at least two of the three major indexes — the S&P 500 and the Dow — since June. The S&P 500
    SPX,
    +1.19%
    finished 44.59 points, or 1.2%, higher at 3,797.34. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    +0.54%
    rose 417.06 points, or 1.3%, to climb to 31,499.62. The Nasdaq Composite
    COMP,
    +0.86%
    advanced 92.90 points, or 0.9%, to close at 10,952.61. The rally comes as investors cling to hopes that the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of its interest rate hikes after November, market strategists said.

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