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Tag: global warming
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Inside the fight to save reef sharks from extinction
Inside the fight to save reef sharks from extinction – CBS News
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Climate change may drive millions of species to extinction
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Climate change may drive millions of species to extinction – CBS News
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Flooding across Russia’s west from melting mountain snow and ice forces mass evacuations
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Moscow — Warm spring temperatures have unleashed torrents on parts of western Russia, where thawing ice and melting mountain snow are swelling some of Europe’s biggest rivers and inundating towns and cities along their paths. The southwest Russian city of Orenburg, near the Kazakh border, was bracing for its worst flooding in decades, while to the north, the entire region of Tyumen in western Siberia was put under a state of emergency as the flood risk mounted.
Officials have evacuated thousands of residents from homes along fast-rising rivers in the Urals and western Siberia.
Moscow declared a federal emergency Sunday amid the flooding in the Orenburg region, where the Ural river left much of the city of Orsk covered in water, forcing thousands to leave their homes.
ANATOLIY ZHDANOV/Kommersant Photo/AFP/Getty
The river was reaching dangerous levels Monday in the regional capital of Orenburg, a city of 550,000 people.
The Kremlin spoke of a “critical” situation Monday, warning that the floods had “possibly not reached their peak.”
Emergency services said Monday that more than 10,000 residential buildings had been flooded, mostly in the Urals, the Volga area and western Siberia. They warned of a “rise in air temperature, active snow melting and the overflow of rivers.”
Governor Alexander Moor was quoted by state media as saying all of the Tyumen region would be under a state of emergency until the flooding risk passed.
In the south, much of the city of Orsk was under water after torrential rain caused a nearby dam to burst. Orenburg region authorities said that while the Ural river “went down by nine centimeters (3.5 inches)” in Orsk, water levels in the city of Orenburg were still rising fast.
Russian Ministry of Emergency/Anadolu/Getty
The mayor of Orenburg, Sergei Salmin, called on residents in flood-risk zones to leave immediately.
“The water can come at night. Do not risk your lives,” he said on social media, warning that water levels would surpass danger marks. “Do not wait for that. Leave right now.”
Salmin told Russian television that Orenburg had not “seen so much water” since the last high mark was registered in 1942. “Since then there have been no floods. This is unprecedented.”
President Vladimir Putin ordered a government commission to be established on the floods. His spokesman said Putin did not plan on visiting the flood zone but that he was being briefed on “nature anomalies” in real time.
Putin, who has been a vocal skeptic of man-made climate change for much of his rule, has in recent years ordered his government to do more to prepare Russia for extreme weather events. The country has seen severe floods and fires in recent springs and summers.
Salmin said authorities had evacuated 736 people in Orenburg as they expected the water to rise further.
Over the weekend he warned of forced evacuations if people did not cooperate, saying: “There is no time for convincing.”
Russia’s weather monitor Rosgidromet said it did not expect the flood in Orenburg to peak until Wednesday and warned that many districts of the city would be affected.
The Ural river flows through Orenburg and into Kazakhstan, where President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev said the floods were one of the worst natural disasters to affect the area in decades.
Kazakh Ministry of Emergency/Handout/Anadolu/Getty
Aerial images of the city of Orsk showed just the top floors and colourful roofs of houses visible over brown water. In the city center, water reached the first floor of buildings.
After evacuating more than 6,000 people across the Orenburg region, authorities also began relocating some residents of the Siberian city of Kurgan near northern Kazakhstan, home to around 300,000 people, where the Tobol river was expected to rise.
Emergency services in Kurgan said 571 people were moved away from areas expected to be flooded.
Authorities said around 100 rescuers had arrived as reinforcements in the western Siberian region from the Urals to prepare for the floods.
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Sperm whale’s slow death trapped in maze-like Japanese bay raises alarm over impact of global warming
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Tokyo — The slow demise of a stray whale that spent its last days circling Osaka Bay not only saddened TV viewers across Japan, it also alarmed cetacean experts who called the whale the latest casualty of a warming planet.
“Whales used to lose their way every three years or so,” Yasunobu Nabeshima, a visiting researcher at the Osaka Museum of Natural History, told CBS News. “Until now it was a rare phenomenon. But these incidents have increased.”
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This month’s tragedy marked the second case in as many years.
Nabeshima said global warming has reduced the temperature differential between the Pacific Ocean and Osaka Bay, rendering the powerful Kuroshio Current “a warm-water conveyor belt” that propels whales from their usual deep ocean haunts into the shallow waters along the coast.
The most recent episode began in mid-January, when the sperm whale — one of the world’s heaviest animals — was first sighted off the coast of Nishinomiya City in Hyogo Prefecture. TV cameras and local authorities intently tracked the doomed whale as it swam futilely eastward toward Osaka.
Deprived of its primary food, giant squid, the whale’s spout grew noticeably listless.
Unlike Japan’s easy-to-navigate harbors like Kobe, Osaka Bay, which serves Japan’s third-largest city, is a maze of artificial islands and landfilled peninsulas, packed with theme parks and shopping malls as well as warehouses and industrial plants. It’s effectively a death trap for marine mammals, with numerous nooks and crannies and bounded by wharves and breakwaters that can make it impossible for the creatures to find their way back out to the blue water.
Taro Hama/Getty
Another sperm whale died near the mouth of the Yodo River in Osaka in January 2023. Nabeshima, of the Osaka museum, told CBS News that a pod of short-beaked common dolphins ended up stuck in Osaka Bay last fall and they could be seen from Yumeshima, an artificial island and site for Expo 2025, which opens in April. Sea turtles have also become stranded in the area.
The severely emaciated body of the latest sperm whale casualty, a male that weighed over 30 metric tons and measured 50 feet in length, was recovered and temporarily buried after officials decided it would be cheaper than hauling the carcass out to sea. After two years, the skeleton will be recovered and donated to a local museum.
Stray whales can be a jumbo-sized headache for local governments. The cost to taxpayers of the offshore burial for last year’s stranded sperm whale was more than half a million dollars — 10 times the cost of a land burial, according to the Mainichi daily newspaper.
TV viewers watched in real time as the whale, lying on its side, its enormous jaws open in a “V,” was tethered to the wharf and then carefully placed in an enormous sling. In a delicate procedure lasting over an hour, an oceanside crane gingerly lifted the carcass and placed it onto a flatbed truck, which carried it to its temporary resting place.
A researcher told the local network MBS TV that the creature would first undergo a forensic analysis to determine its cause of death, age, history of injuries and illness and a DNA test to determine its origin. The whale that became trapped last year was 46 years old. Sperm whales have been recorded to live as long as 62.
Experts also planned to search the creature’s intestines for chunks of ambergris, an extremely rare and strange waxy substance produced in sperm whales from undigested pieces of squid and other cephalopods. Known as “floating gold” and found in only 1 to 5% of sperm whales, ambergris is used in French perfumes. In 2021 one chunk sold for $1.5 million.
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Scientists have been calling for new measures to keep the mighty animals out of harm’s way, including sensor-activated “acoustic deterrent devices” placed at the Kii Strait, the entryway to the Inland Sea from the Pacific Ocean, to prevent the whales venturing near the coastline.
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2/9: CBS News Weekender
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‘Category 5’ was considered the worst hurricane. There’s something scarier, study says.
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As fearsome as Category 5 hurricanes can be for people living in harm’s way, a new study reports global warming is supercharging some of the most intense cyclones with winds high enough to merit a hypothetical Category 6.
The world’s most intense hurricanes are growing even more intense, fueled by rising temperatures in the ocean and atmosphere, according to the study published Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. And, the authors say, a Category 5 on the traditional wind scale underestimates their dangers.
“As a cautious scientist, you never want to cry wolf,” said Michael Wehner, co-author and climate scientist at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. But after searching for the signature of climate change in the world’s most intense cyclones, Wehner said he and co-author Jim Kossin found “the wolf is here.”
“Significantly increasing” temperatures, fueled by greenhouse gas emissions, up the energy available to the most intense tropical cyclones, reported Wehner and Kossin, a retired federal scientist and science advisor at the nonprofit First Street Foundation.
More cyclones are making the most of it, gaining higher wind speeds and more intensity, the authors said, and their evidence shows that will occur even more often as the world grows warmer.
They used a hypothetical Category 6, with a minimum threshold of 192 mph, to study hurricanes that have occurred in the modern satellite era, since around 1980. They found five hurricanes and typhoons that would have met the criteria and all five occurred within the last decade.
To be clear, they aren’t proposing adding that category to the National Hurricane Center’s wind scale, which experts say would require a lengthy process and many partners. But they are hoping to “inform broader discussions about how to better communicate risk in a warming world,” Kossin told USA TODAY.
Their findings emphasize that the dangers associated with a Category 5 cyclone are increasing as storms intensify above the Cat 5’s 157-mph threshold and that results in an underestimation of risk, he said.
An enhanced satellite image released National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Oct.23, 2015, shows Hurricane Patricia as it approaches the coastline of Mexico from the Eastern Pacific. They found the chances of that potential intensity occurring in such storms have more than doubled since 1979. They say the areas where the growing risks of these storms are of greatest concern are the Gulf of Mexico, the Philippines, parts of Southeast Asia and Australia.
Their peer-reviewed, scientific research provides the evidence pointing to climate change that some scientists have been waiting for.
For more than 35 years, the scientific community has expected to see thermodynamic wind speeds increase in hurricanes, said Kerry Emanuel, the climate scientist who edited the paper for the journal. “And now we are seeing this increase in both climate analyses and models..”
What is the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale?
The hurricane center has used the well-known scale – with wind speed ranges for each of five categories – since the 1970s. The minimum threshold for Category 5 winds is 157 mph.
Designed by engineer Herbert Saffir and adapted by former center director Robert Simpson, the scale stops at Category 5 since winds that high would “cause rupturing damages that are serious no matter how well it’s engineered,” Simpson said during a 1999 interview.
The Saffir-Simpson scale categorizes hurricanes. The open-ended Category 5 describes anything from “a nominal Category 5 to infinity,” Kossin said. “That’s becoming more and more inadequate with time because climate change is creating more and more of these unprecedented intensities.”
A Category 6?
Scientists, including Kossin, have occasionally brought up adding another category to the scale for more than 20 years.
Climate scientist Michael Mann, director of the Penn Center for Science, Sustainability & the Media at the University of Pennsylvania, has argued for years that the Earth is “experiencing a new class of monster storms – ‘Category 6’ – hurricanes,” thanks to the effects of human-caused warming.
Mann wrote a commentary to the Wehner and Kossin study, published in the same journal Monday, saying their work lays out an objective case for expanding the scale to include the “climate change-fueled stronger and more destructive storms.”
“We are witnessing hurricanes that – by any logical extension of the existing Saffir-Simpson scale – deserve to be placed in a whole separate, more destructive category from the traditionally defined (category 5) ‘strongest’ storms,” Mann wrote.
The research adds to a growing discussion about how the center, emergency managers and others could better convey the full range of hazards from a major hurricane.
Climate change Is it fueling hurricanes in the Atlantic? Here’s what science says.
Hurricane scale doesn’t measure other, greater risks
The Saffir-Simpson scale only describes the wind risk and does not account for coastal storm surge and rainfall-driven flooding, the two biggest killers in hurricanes.
Adding a sixth category to the wind scale wouldn’t help address those concerns, Kossin said.
The hurricane center has tried to steer the focus toward the individual hazards, including storm surge, wind, rainfall, tornadoes and rip currents, Jamie Rhome, the center’s deputy executive director, said last week. “So, we don’t want to over-emphasize the wind hazard by placing too much emphasis on the category.”
Despite the center’s efforts, the storm’s wind category always gets the most attention from the public when a storm approaches.
“That focus on category over the years has detracted from effective communication of the other hazards,” said James Franklin, a retired branch chief for hurricane specialists at the hurricane center. “The emphasis at the NHC, rightly, has been to focus on the hazards,” he said.
Ultimately, the decision would likely rest with the center, but Kossin said the conversation would “have to happen over time with a lot of input” from the Federal Emergency Management Agency, social scientists and others.
It’s likely the World Meteorological Organization would be asked to weigh in because of the international scope involved in hurricane and typhoon forecasting, Franklin said. That’s the same group that sets the list of hurricane names for each season.
To Franklin, the question is what would a sixth category accomplish?
“If there are things that emergency managers would do differently, or the public might do differently because a storm has 195 mph winds versus 160 mph winds, then maybe the categories should be changed,” he said. “Personally, I’m getting out of the way if it’s 165 mph winds or 195 mph winds.”
This infrared satellite image shows Hurricane Patricia over the Pacific Ocean on Oct. 23, 2015. Which storms fit the study’s hypothetical Category 6 description?
One hurricane in the eastern Pacific, Patricia, and four typhoons in the western Pacific:
◾ Haiyan, November 2013: Struck the southern Philippines with 196-mph winds and a storm surge of almost 25 feet, killing 6,300 people and leaving 4 million homeless.
◾ Patricia, October 2015: Reached winds of 216 mph at sea, then dropped before it made landfall in Jalisco, Mexico as a Category 4 storm.
◾ Meranti, September 2016: Moved between the Philippines and Taiwan before making landfall in eastern China. Its winds reached 196 mph.
◾ Goni, November 2020: Made landfall in the Philippines with winds estimated at 196 mph.
◾ Surigae, April 2021: Reached wind speeds of 196 mph over the ocean, tracking east of the Philippines. Its max winds were the highest ever recorded for a storm from January to April anywhere in the world.
Dinah Voyles Pulver covers climate and environmental issues for USA TODAY. Reach her at dpulver@gannett.com or @dinahvp.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Category 6 hurricane? That’s what a new study suggests. Here’s why.
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Farmer Protests in Europe Foreshadow Dark Future for American Farmers
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Tractor on farm track by Peter Holmes, via Wikimedia Commons The progressive stranglehold of “climate change” policy in Europe has taken its toll on their farmers, and they have reached a critical breaking point. A breaking point that could be coming to America’s heartland in the very near future.
Europe has had a simmering level of discontent among its farming community over the last few years, with tensions in some countries starting to boil over as farmers intensify protests throughout the continent. Major highways have been blocked by tractors, bales of hay lit on fire, and access to airports and sea ports restricted by the protesters.
The increase in irritation from European farmers comes as the European Union Summit is set to commence. Farmers from Belgium to Italy and France to Spain are hopeful their voices will be considered as European leaders meet to plot new “climate change” regulations.
Enough is enough
European farmers are making waves across the continent as they flex their agricultural muscles to catch the attention of their elected leaders. French farmers recently blocked highways in and out of Paris with tractors and set hay bales on fire to block access to Toulouse-Blagnac Airport.
Belgian farmers blocked roads to the Zeebrugge container port. Farmers marched in the streets of Milan and Rome in Italy.
Last year, German and Polish farmers protested, and Spanish farmers have pledged to add their voices to the mix starting in February. Sporting protest signs with slogans such as: “Minister for awhile, Farmer for Life” these farmers are at their limit with the European Union bureaucrats.
Why all the anger from seemingly mild-mannered European farmers? They argue that the EU’s oppressive regulations primarily aimed at climate change initiatives have made it almost impossible to thrive as a farmer in Europe and stay in business at all.
One such regulation is the requirement to devote 4% of their farmland to “non-productive” areas so “nature can recover” to receive subsidies from the EU. The requirement to leave land fallow to receive subsidies has put many farmers out of business, with rumors of some feeling so desperate they’ve resorted to suicide.
Where would such a nonsensical restriction come from?
RELATED: China Buying American Farms Is So Dangerous Even Senator John Fetterman Gets It
Another dangerous meeting
Last year, the 28th Conference of the Parties, otherwise known as the COP28, met in Dubai. It is an annual event where world leaders meet to discuss policy changes that could be made to avert climate disasters. The meetings are often minimally covered by mainstream media.
Unfortunately, these extravagant get-togethers of the world elite tend to be where some of the worst ideas are born and then subsequently dropped into government policies affecting the unsuspecting masses. Last year’s event, in particular, showcased what they dubbed as “1.5 Celcius-aligned menus” focused on plant-based foods to show the importance of “climate-friendly food and farming.”
The COP28 Food Systems Lead Mariam Almheiri said of the menus:
“To achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement, to keep 1.5C within reach, we must address the connection between global food systems, agriculture, and the climate.”
Don’t be fooled by the eloquence of the line; when Mr. Almheiri mentions global food systems, he’s talking about farms and ranches. The United States naturally was in attendance last year and was one of over 150 countries that agreed to implement policies to align with the climate goals of the COP28, including:
“…simultaneously reduce the harmful environmental impacts of agriculture and to maximize the sector’s climate benefits.”
Europe attempts to “reduce the harmful” impacts of farming by tying subsidies to required fallow farmland. The question is, how is the United States pushing forward?
It’s already here
Late last year, 12 state agriculture commissioners wrote a letter to six U.S. banks raising concerns about financial decisions the banks were making tied to climate change initiatives that negatively impact American farmers and ranchers. The six banks in question are a part of the United Nations-backed Net-Zero Banking Alliance or NZBA.
The NZBA is “committed to financing ambitious climate action” with the intent that banks make financial decisions based on climate initiatives.
The six U.S. banks are:
- Bank of America
- Citigroup
- Goldman Sachs
- JPMorgan Chase
- Morgan Stanley
- Wells Fargo
RELATED: Mega Investment Firm BlackRock Plans Layoffs as Controversial ‘ESG’ Finally Faces Objection
In the letter, the commissioners write:
“Achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions in agriculture requires a complete overhaul of on-farm infrastructure – one of the goals of the NZBA.”
They go on to illustrate the damage the NZBA will inflict on American agriculture:
“Proposed net-zero roadmaps describe dramatic, impractical, and costly changes to American farming and ranching operations such as switching to electric machinery and equipment; installing on-site solar panels and wind turbines; moving to organic fertilizer; altering rice-field irrigation systems; and slashing U.S. ruminant meat consumption in half, costing millions in livestock jobs.”
That last bit should sound familiar. It sounds a lot like pushing plant-based foods like COP28 or, dare I say it…eating bugs instead of beef…
Boring but important
If it’s not the banks that will bring American farmers to the streets in protest, it might be Congress. This year, Congress has to pass an updated Farm bill.
The Farm Bill encompasses all manner of non-sexy policy items related to SNAP benefits and farm subsidies. These farm subsidies, similar to those in Europe, are increasingly tied to climate initiatives.
Just as in Europe, the stranglehold on America’s heartland isn’t happening overnight, but in small, tiny moves throughout many years thanks to the persistent push of climate activists and international pressure from progressive European leaders. While the mainstream media brushes aside claims that European aristocrats and climate activists want to make us eat bug burgers and that techno-elites like Bill Gates gobbling up the largest amount of privately owned farmland in the country isn’t something to be concerned about, banks and congressmen are slowly encroaching on American ranchers and farmers to perpetuate their dangerous climate ideology.
RELATED: Conservatives Are Going Crazy Over This Viral Protest Song By A Virginia Farmer
Last October, the Department of Agriculture’s Household Food Security report revealed that one in eight households in America had experienced food insecurity in the previous calendar year. With that, I’ll leave you with this final question – what is the end goal of starving out Europeans and Americans by slowly killing off farming and ranching?
Is it really about climate change, or is it about something else entirely?
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Kathleen J. Anderson
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Compact, swift typhoons are more impacted by global warming.
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Newswise — A group from Nagoya University in Japan has found that larger, slower-moving typhoons are more likely to be resilient against global warming. However, compact, faster-moving storms are more likely to be sensitive. These findings suggest an improved method to project the strength of typhoons under global warming conditions. Their report was published in Geophysical Research Letters.
Tropical cyclones are among the most dangerous weather systems in the world, causing disruption, damage, and death in East Asia. As global temperatures increase, so does the threat of typhoons. But projecting the strength and structure of such storms also becomes more difficult. Understanding changes in ocean response is essential to mitigate the worst effects of typhoons.
One way to understand tropical cyclones is to examine the relationship between the atmosphere and the ocean. The ocean-atmosphere coupling relationship influences weather patterns, ocean circulation, and climate variability.
This is especially important for typhoons as the intensity of tropical cyclones is linked to increases in sea surface temperature (SST). As the size of a cyclone increases, SST decreases, limiting its intensity. However, under global warming, the SST is higher. As a result, this could make a typhoon last longer.
“The rise in sea temperatures is concerning because a typical compact, fast-moving storm, for example Typhoon Faxai in 2019, caused severe damage to eastern Japan,” warned lead researcher Sachie Kanada. “Our findings show the intensity of such typhoons can strengthen under global warming conditions.”
To understand how global warming can affect typhoons, Kanada and fellow researcher Hidenori Aiki examined the buffering effect of atmosphere-ocean coupling on typhoons. They used the latest simulator of weather systems, an atmosphere-ocean model called CReSS-NHOES, to evaluate the effect of atmosphere ocean coupling on changes in the intensity of strong typhoons. CReSS-NHOES combines the cloud simulation model CReSS, developed at Nagoya University, with the oceanographic model NHOES, developed by the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology.
The researchers used CReSS-NHOES to examine four powerful, but different-sized, typhoons in recent years: Trami (2018), Faxai (2019), Hagibis (2019), and Haishen (2020). These typhoons were all devastating; Trami and Faxai caused billions of dollars of damage and Hagibis led to the deaths of 118 people.
Kanada and Aiki evaluated three scenarios: preindustrial era climate, a 2°C increase in SST, and a 4°C increase in SST. “We found that the degree to which typhoons strengthened per 1°C rise in SST varies significantly from typhoon to typhoon,” said Kanada. She was surprised by the change in hPa, a unit of pressure used in meteorology to measure atmospheric pressure and which represents the strength and intensity of a storm. “A typhoon, such as Trami, strengthens by only 3.1 hPa, while Faxai strengthens by as much as 16.2 hPa with a 1°C rise in SST.”
The results of this study suggest that the atmosphere-ocean coupling effect buffers changes in storm intensity associated with global warming. But typhoons of different sizes may be affected differently. Storms with large eyes and small movement speeds cause SST to drop near their center, hindering their development. However, storms with small eyes and high movement speeds move away from the SST occurence. Such typhoons maintain constant heat at their center, increasing in intensity.
Using these findings, the researchers created a new model to project the effect of tropical cyclones. They used a simple parameter called nondimensional storm speed (S0). Their model showed that S0 could distinguish between potentially destructive storms that are likely to strengthen under global warming and those that are resilient to the effects of global warming.
“Currently, climate change projection research on typhoon intensity is conducted using models with coarse horizontal resolution or atmosphere-only models, which have difficulty reproducing the intensity and structure of strong typhoons,” Kanada explains. “This research using a high-resolution coupled regional atmosphere-ocean model can reproduce the intensity and structure of strong typhoons and the response of the ocean with high accuracy, so is expected to contribute not only to the quantitative projection of typhoon intensity under a warming climate, but also to the improvement of the accuracy of current typhoon intensity forecasts.”
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The cause of recent cold waves over East Asia and North America was in the mid-latitude ocean fronts
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Newswise — If the world is warming, why are our winters getting colder? Indeed, East Asia and North America have experienced frequent extreme weather events since the 2000s that defy average climate change projections. Many experts have blamed Arctic warming and a weakening jet stream due to declining Arctic sea ice, but climate model experiments have not adequately demonstrated their validity. The massive power outage in Texas in February 2021 was caused by an unusual cold snap, and climate models are needed to accurately predict the risk of extreme weather events in order to prevent massive socioeconomic damage. In particular, climate technology leaders have recently set the ability to predict the climate of the next decade or so as an important goal.
The Korea Institute of Science and Technology (KIST) announced that senior researcher Mi-Kyung Sung of the Sustainable Environment Research Center and professor Soon-Il An of the Center for Irreversible Climate Change at Yonsei University (President Seung-hwan Seo) have jointly discovered the role of mid-latitude oceans as a source of anomalous waves that are particularly frequent in East Asia and North America, paving the way for a mid- to long-term response to winter climate change.
Ocean currents have a major impact on the weather and climate of neighboring countries as they transport not only suspended and dissolved matter but also heat energy. In particular, regions where temperatures change rapidly in a narrow latitudinal band, such as the Gulf Stream in the Atlantic Ocean and the downstream region of the Kuroshio Current in the Pacific Ocean, are called “ocean fronts,” and the KIST-Yonsei joint research team attributes the atmospheric wave response to the excessive accumulation of heat in these ocean fronts as the cause of the increase in extreme cold waves. From the early 2000s until recently, anomalous cold trend in East Asia coincided with the accumulation of heat near the Gulf Stream in the North Atlantic, and that in North America coincided with the intensification of heat accumulation near the Kuroshio Current. The oceanic frontal region acts as a thermostat to control the frequency of winter cold waves and anomalous high temperatures.
The process of heat accumulation in oceanic frontal regions lasts from years to decades. During this time, a warming hiatus can occur in the continental regions that bucks the global warming trend. Conversely, during decades of ocean frontal cooling, continental regions appear to experience a sharp acceleration of warming. This suggests that the recent decadal cooling trend is essentially reinforced by temporary natural variability in the global climate system, and that we can expect unseasonably warm winter weather to become more prevalent as the heat buildup in the ocean front is relieved. These results are also evident in climate model experiments that vary the amount of heat accumulation near ocean fronts, showing that observations and climate model experiments are consistent in their conclusions, in contrast to conventional sea ice theory. This highlights the importance of accurately simulating ocean front variability in climate models to improve our ability to predict medium- and long-term climate change over the next decade.
As global warming intensifies in the future and changes the structure of the ocean, these regional climate variations could change dramatically. Climate model experiments with increased greenhouse gases have shown that North America is likely to experience shorter and fewer warming hiatus, while East Asia is likely to experience more frequent intersections between warming hiatus and acceleration. These different continental responses are driven by the different oceanic responses of the Kuroshio Current and the Gulf Stream to global warming.
“Applying the effects of ocean fronts revealed in this research to global warming climate models can improve climate change forecasts for the near future,” said Dr. Mi-Kyung Sung of KIST. “It will provide important references for long-term forecasts of winter energy demand and the construction of climate change response infrastructure to prevent climate disasters such as the 2021 Texas power outage.”
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KIST was established in 1966 as the first government-funded research institute in Korea. KIST now strives to solve national and social challenges and secure growth engines through leading and innovative research. For more information, please visit KIST’s website at https://eng.kist.re.kr/
The research, which was funded by the Ministry of Science and ICT (Minister Jong-ho Lee) through the Mid-Career Researcher Support Project (2021R1A2C1003934), the Leading Research Center Support Project (2018R1A5A1024958), and the Ultra-High Performance Computing Utilization Advancement Project (2022M3K3A1094114), was published on November 27 in the international journal Nature Communications
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Environmental Progress: Kids Lead – Jim Hightower, Humor Times
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One breakthrough for environmental progress was made recently by young climate activists in deep-red, rural Montana.
“OK, boomer.” That’s a snarky phrase currently some use to mock 60- and-70-year-olds they consider to be cluelessly out of touch.
Recently, however, teenagers and 20-somethings have turned that snide sentiment into a positive challenge directed at doomsayers of all ages who claim nothing can be done to stop runaway global warming: “OK, doomer,” these young climate activists respond. It’s their shorthand way of saying to do-nothing fatalists: Give up if you want, but please step aside while we organize and mobilize for climate sanity and environmental progress.
Our globe’s fast-warming, catastrophe-creating climate is more than just another issue: It has become a generational cause for young people. Indeed, 62% of young voters support totally phasing out fossil fuels, and they’re channeling their anger about official inaction toward both political parties. Such feisty grassroots groups as Gen-Z for Change, Zero Hour, Black Girl Environmentalist and Our Children’s Trust are on the front lines — in the face of power, and on the move.
As in all progressive struggles — from civil rights to labor to environmental justice — progress comes from sticking with principle, building incrementally on local victories and persevering against moneyed reactionaries.
Already, one breakthrough by these young climate activists was made this year in deep-red, rural Montana. In a case filed by Our Children’s Trust, 16 children, ages 2-18, charged that a state law took away their right to challenge energy projects that increase global warming. Noting that Montana’s constitution establishes a right to “a clean and healthful environment,” state Judge Kathy Seeley ruled for the children… and for a clean, healthy climate future.
Progress is not made by spectators and cynics, but by activists. And those who say that activism can’t produce change should not interrupt those who’re doing it.
The Rattiest Right-Wing Congress Critter
Vangunu, one of the Solomon Islands, is home to a giant species of rodent called the vika. Astonishingly, this rare and very large rat has jaws so powerful it can bite through a coconut shell!
That made me think of Rep. Jim Jordan, the GOP’s rattiest far-right-wing Congress critter. There is no documented proof that this extremist partisan was raised on Vangunu, but he sure keeps gnawing on Joe and Hunter Biden, desperately trying to crack open a scandal that simply doesn’t exit. Vikas are powerful, but they’ve not been accused of being smart.
Jordan, the former coach of a boy’s wrestling team, now has his team of House Republicans in a choke hold, draining national media attention to his goofy obsession with impeaching Joe. Impeach him for what? Well, says Jordan, we’re looking for a reason.
He has it bass-ackwards — real impeachment proceedings start with specific charges of an official’s “high crimes and misdemeanors.” But Coach Jordan is perverting that constitutional requirement by first accusing Biden of high crimes, then holding hearings in hopes of finding one. But poor Jim — it turns out to be easier for him to bite through a coconut than to fabricate a Biden crime.
But Jordan keeps gnawing, wasting Congress’ time, staff and credibility (plus millions of taxpayer dollars) scuttling down trails that go nowhere. Meanwhile, as he and the GOP House prioritize their clownish political agenda, they can’t perform the basics of government, which is simply to keep essential public services funded and functioning.
Unable to govern, Republican leaders abruptly stopped working in the House in early December, saying they’ll get serious next year. But, uh-oh, the vika congressman has just announced he’ll hold more impeachment hearings next year so he can keep gnawing at the Biden coconut.
National radio commentator, writer, public speaker, and author of the book, “Swim Against The Current: Even A Dead Fish Can Go With The Flow,” Jim Hightower has spent three decades battling the Powers That Be on behalf of the Powers That Ought To Be – consumers, working families, environmentalists, small businesses, and just-plain-folks.Twice elected Texas Agriculture Commissioner, Hightower is a modern-day Johnny Appleseed, spreading the message of progressive populism all across the American grassroots.
He broadcasts daily radio commentaries that are carried in more than 150 commercial and public stations and on the web.
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Jim Hightower
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Triggering positive points crucial for climate crisis resolution.
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Newswise — Positive tipping points must be triggered if we are to avoid the severe consequences of damaging Earth system tipping points, researchers say.
With global warming on course to breach 1.5oC, at least five Earth system tipping points are likely to be triggered – and more could follow.
Once triggered, Earth system tipping points would have profound local and global impacts, including sea-level rise from major ice sheet melting, mass species extinction from dieback of the Amazon rainforest and disruption to weather patterns from a collapse of large-scale ocean circulation currents.
The new commentary – published in One Earth by researchers from the Global Systems Institute at the University of Exeter – says positive tipping points must be triggered to help reach the levels of decarbonisation required.
“One reason for hope is that many of the tipping thresholds that are likely to be crossed first are so-called slow tipping systems, which can be briefly exceeded without a commitment to tipping,” said lead author Dr Paul Ritchie.
“However, rapid decarbonisation that minimises the distance of any overshoot and – even more importantly – limits the time spent beyond a threshold is critical for avoiding triggering climate tipping points.”
Dr Jesse Abrams said: “One mechanism for achieving the rapid decarbonisation levels required is ironically through positive tipping points, moments when beneficial changes rapidly gain momentum.”
The research team point to the sales seen in electric vehicles, particularly across Scandinavia, as evidence for the capability of human systems exhibiting positive tipping points.
Professor Tim Lenton added: “Under the correct enabling conditions, such as affordability, attractiveness and accessibility, Norway have managed to transition the market share of electric vehicles from under 10% to near 90% within a decade.”
The article is entitled: “Tipping points: Both problem and solution.”
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Greenhouse emissions could skyrocket if methane escapes frozen prison
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Greenhouse gas emissions could skyrocket if the permafrost on an Arctic island melts, scientists have found.
Millions of cubic meters of methane are trapped under the permafrost on Svalbard island in Norway. Permafrost is a permanently frozen layer underneath the surface of the Earth. And in this case, it serves as a frozen prison for this catastrophic amount of methane.
But the permafrost is rapidly melting due to the warming climate. This means that vast amounts of methane could escape into the atmosphere, according to a new study published in Frontiers in Earth Science.
“At present the leakage from below permafrost is very low, but factors such as glacial retreat and permafrost thawing may ‘lift the lid’ on this in the future,” Thomas Birchall of the University Center in Svalbard, and lead author of the study said in a press release on the findings.
Methane is a potent greenhouse gas emitted into the atmosphere from both human activities and natural processes. It is the second most significant contributor to climate change after carbon dioxide.
Svalbard is very similar to the rest of the Arctic in terms of its geological and glacial history, according to the study. This means vast amounts of methane may be present elsewhere in the region.
To study the permafrost, researchers used historical data to map the frost and the accumulation of methane beneath it. However, it remains a complicated topic of study due to its being extremely inaccessible to humans.
But it is possible to measure using wellbore—holes drilled in the ground to retrieve resources such as oil and gas.
Svalbard has widespread permafrost; however, it is patchier in certain areas. Ocean currents towards the island’s west mean it is warmer there, making the permafrost elsewhere thinner with more patches. Therefore, an escape of methane would be more likely here, as the permafrost is more likely to melt, releasing the potent gas.
But even in areas where the permafrost is thick—such as in the island’s lowlands—there is potential for the gas to escape.
Longyearbyen, Svalbard and (inset) a 3D illustration of methane. A study found that greenhouse gas emissions could skyrocket it methane escapes from the permafrost on the Arctic island.
Suzi Media Production / vchal/Getty
Scientists looked out for ice forming inside the wellbore, as well as changes in background gas measurements. They discovered abnormal amounts of pressure beneath the permafrost, which suggested it acted as a seal for the gas below.
“All the wells that encountered gas accumulations did so by coincidence—by contrast, hydrocarbon exploration wells that specifically target accumulations in more typical settings had a success rate far below 50%,” said Birchall. “These things seem to be common. One anecdotal example is from a wellbore that was drilled recently near the airport in Longyearbyen.
“The drillers heard a bubbling sound coming from the well, so we decided to have a look, armed with rudimentary alarms designed for detecting explosive levels of methane—which were immediately triggered when we held them over the wellbore.”
Previous research has shown that the upper layer of permafrost around the world is thawing at a quicker rate with the warming climate. The question as to whether or how the deeper layer of permafrost is affected remains a mystery and very difficult to study.
Do you have a tip on a science story that Newsweek should be covering? Do you have a question about permafrost? Let us know via science@newsweek.com.
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
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From decarbonization to electric cars, California hopes to showcase climate leadership at COP28
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World leaders are gearing up for COP28, an annual U.N. climate conference that will begin this week in Dubai, and California is expected to play a sizable role in the proceedings.
Representatives from Gov. Gavin Newsom’s administration will attend and speak on the Golden State’s progress toward clean energy goals, zero-emission vehicles and nature-based solutions, officials said. California will also engage in continued diplomacy at the subnational level after Newsom’s recent trip to China, where he engaged in climate talks with local leaders.
“Part of our presence in California is really to make the case that subnational governments — that is, states, provinces, cities — need to have a central role in this international collaboration to combat climate change,” Wade Crowfoot, California’s natural resources secretary, told reporters Tuesday.
But some experts have soured slightly on the conference this year, noting that Dubai is one of the world’s leading oil producers and plays an outsize role in global fossil fuel emissions, the main driver of global warming. The conference is being chaired by Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, chief executive of Abu Dhabi National Oil Co., one of the largest oil companies in the world.
In a year expected to be the hottest ever recorded due to climate change, holding the conference in the Dubai sends mixed signals, said Cara Horowitz, executive director of the Emmett Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at UCLA, who will be attending the proceedings.
“This conference will be an especially challenging one for making real progress,” Horowitz said, not only because of Al Jaber’s role but also because this year’s agenda offers few opportunities for new breakthrough agreements such as the Paris climate agreement, which was established eight years ago at COP21.
The electric car sharing program at Rancho San Pedro was created in September 2020 and has attracted 39 users. The program is backed by the Zero Emissions Mobility and Community Pilot Project Fund, which is launching four zero-emission mobility pilots around Los Angeles County this year.
(Myung J. Chun/Los Angeles Times)
The Paris agreement seeks to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels and no higher than 2 degrees — a benchmark that was passed for the first time this month.
“I doubt that this COP is going to radically change our approach to solving the problem, but hopefully it will add to incremental progress that allows us to see a way forward,” Horowitz said. “That’s deeply unsatisfying to me and to many others, but it’s a little hard to figure out how else one would go about tackling a problem of this size other than by bringing together the world’s leading experts, and the world’s most passionate advocates and policymakers, to create a space for change.”
Indeed, California officials were emphatic that the state can get work done in Dubai. As one of the world’s largest economies, California is already a global leader in climate policy and has made great strides toward decarbonization, with the current goal of reaching carbon neutrality by 2045.
The state has also committed to transitioning to electric vehicles with a ban on new gas car sales slated to take effect in 2035. Currently, 27% of new vehicle sales in the state are zero-emission vehicles, up from 5% when Newsom took office.
But more collaboration will be needed to reach greater goals, said Lauren Sanchez, Newsom’s senior climate advisor.
“We could be net-zero tomorrow … but we would still need action from the world’s largest emitters, large countries and other nation states, in order to actually bend the curve of carbon emissions and keep Californians safe,” Sanchez said. “A big part of the diplomacy that we’ll be engaging in, as a subnational, is to share everything California has been working on and to continue learning from others.”
Among the work California will be touting is its substantial investments in renewable energy. About 60% of the state’s power now comes from clean energy sources, said David Hochschild, chair of the California Energy Commission. That includes a 2,000% increase in solar power over the last decade and a 3,500% increase in energy storage over the last four years, making California the largest and fastest-growing energy storage market in the world, he said.
At COP28, the state plans to join the Global Offshore Wind Alliance, an international consortium that seeks to achieve 2,000 gigawatts of offshore wind power by 2050, with 25 gigawatts coming from California, Hochschild said.
But energy is just one of California’s offerings at COP28, formally called the 28th Conference of the Parties to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change. The state is planning presentations on its healthy soils program and on nature-based climate solutions, including habitat restoration work and the “30 by 30” plan to conserve 30% of the state’s lands and coastal waters by 2030. For the first time, California will also send its tribal affairs secretary, Christina Snider-Ashtari, to the conference.
“This is actually the first point in history where globally, national and subnational governments have recognized the importance of Indigenous voices in this space, understanding too that Indigenous peoples are disproportionately impacted by the impacts of climate change,” Snider-Ashtari said.
Horowitz, of UCLA, said other states and nations are listening and following California’s lead. She said she has been pleased by the state’s presence and authority at COP gatherings in the past.
“California’s influence in global climate policymaking is real,” Horowitz said. “California continued to grow its economy as it shrank its greenhouse gas emissions, and in doing so, it serves as a model for the world that this is possible.”
But the state also has lessons to learn at COP28 and will be launching an international climate partnership focused on reducing methane emissions. Methane is a short-lived greenhouse gas that lasts about a dozen years in the atmosphere but traps 80 times more heat than carbon dioxide.
Electric school buses sit idle because battery chargers are not yet functional at Lassen High School on Sept. 26, 2023, in Susanville, Calif.
(Irfan Khan/Los Angeles Times)
“We will be significantly expanding our collaborations in this space and really sharing information and strategies and understanding how data can help us tackle the problem of methane,” said Liane Randolph, chair of the California Air Resources Board.
The state will also launch an international climate partnership among subnational jurisdictions with similar Mediterranean climates and will participate in a local climate action summit.
“We’ll be lifting up what we’re doing in California on wildfires, drought, floods, extreme heat, sea level rise, but also developing and announcing collaborations with other governments across the world that are working on these issues as well,” Crowfoot said.
He added that he is looking forward to the results of a “global stocktake” that will occur in Dubai — an inventory of climate progress that he and other officials hoped will prompt countries to update their climate targets to be more ambitious.
But even as California looks to serve as an international climate model, the state is also grappling with its role as an oil producer and consumer. Sanchez said the state will attend COP28 “with a lot of humility” as it works to transform how it produces and consumes energy.
The United States too is not without reproach, as it continues to produce and consume more oil than any other nation. Just weeks ago, the Biden administration released the country’s Fifth National Climate Assessment, a sobering report that showed the nation and the world are far from meeting climate goals.
President Biden’s landmark climate bill, the Inflation Reduction Act, received considerable acclaim for its environmental plans and targets. But while international figures such as Pope Francis and King Charles III are slated to attend the conference in Dubai, Biden has opted to skip this year’s proceedings and send U.S. climate envoy John Kerry and other officials in his place.
Despite the controversies surrounding this year’s COP, Horowitz said she is optimistic that the state and the nation can draw value from the event.
“Often it’s states and cities and counties who are making nitty-gritty decisions about how to run their transit, and what to do with their waste, and what electricity supplies to purchase,” she said. “And it’s those kinds of decisions that really make a huge difference when aggregated globally, and that’s why cooperative efforts among local jurisdictions really matter.”
In many cases, she added, it is the side conversation among states and provinces — as opposed to the high-level negotiations among countries — “where the real work of achieving climate emission reductions happens.”
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Hayley Smith
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Cool Pavement in Phoenix Adding Some Relief to 110 Degree Days | Entrepreneur
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Phoenix is writhing.
For the past 31 days, temperatures in the desert city have reached or exceeded 110 degrees, sizzling the previous record of 18 days set in June 1974.
The historic heatwave blasted the Southwest in late June, stretching from Texas into California’s desert. But it’s been the city of Phoenix that’s felt it the worse.
The heat is taxing hospitals, the city’s infrastructure, and residents’ patience.
“It’s wearing on people,” Kevin Conboy, a physician assistant with Circle the City told the New York Times. “Everyone’s temperatures are hovering at 100. Everyone is complaining of feeling so fatigued and tired.”
But some parts of the city aren’t getting so hot, thanks partly to a new cool pavement technology designed to reflect the sun’s rays back into the atmosphere rather than absorb the heat as dark asphalt does.
The city has painted over 100 miles of road with this coating material, according to the city’s website. City officials said cool pavements “had an average surface temperature 10.5 to 12 degrees lower than traditional asphalt at noon and during the afternoon hours.”
The website also says that the nighttime air temperatures over cool pavement are half a degree lower than on non-coated surfaces.
Related: No More AC? Scientist Invents the ‘World’s Whitest Paint’ To Cool Down Your House
Infrared tests reveal a difference
The Washington Post recently used infrared technology to examine if the city’s claims about cooling pavement were accurate. On one street, the average surface temperature on asphalt was about 154 degrees Fahrenheit. The road treated with special coating had a cooler average temperature reading of 130 degrees.
“With the deployment of cool surfaces and smart technology, we can at least offset some of the urban heat effect, if not fully offset it, moving forward,” said David Hondula, director of the Office of Heat Response and Mitigation.
Phoenix is the first U.S. city with an office dedicated to managing extreme heat.
The water-based cooling pavement treatment is two to three times more expensive than the standard seal. The city eventually wants to treat 4,000 miles of residential roads.
Cooling technology at a dog park
The city pavement isn’t the only public space Phoenix is treating for heat. Researchers at Arizona State University, adhesives company 3M, and the city of Phoenix are experimenting with a new ramada in a dog park coated with Passive Daytime Radiative Cooling, or PDRC.
The material has higher solar reflectance and thermal emittance than typical roofs, reflecting the heat into the atmosphere.
“What we found from initial studies were some pretty substantial positive results in terms of these coated shelters’ ability to provide a better environment for pedestrians,” Dave Sailor, director of the School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning and the main investigator on the project, told ASU News.
“It reduced what’s known as the mean radiant temperature, but also convected much less heat into the urban airshed, so it’s a winning solution from several perspectives.”
The program has also experimented with PRDC at bus stops in the Phoenix area.
“There’s not a single blanket solution that’s going to work everywhere, but by testing these design strategies, we can put together a portfolio of solutions that work well for providing cooling for the Phoenix metro area,” Sailor said.
He says more research is still needed to understand the full benefit and consequences to cool pavement.
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Jonathan Small
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Opinion: Climate Catastrophes Await Us, And All Conservatives Can Do Is Embarrass Themselves
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First, why are Republicans opposed to capitalism that pursues new and innovative ways to make money?
Second, when it comes to the climate crisis, why not do something about it? What is the worst that could happen?
Many industrial companies in the United States are taking innovative steps to protect their operations and profits in the face of climate change. But Republicans are trying to punish them for it because, to them, those business efforts are about something they don’t like called environmental, social, and corporate governance, or ESG.
There are several ways to define ESG, but ultimately, it’s a fiscal or business path that screens investments based on corporate policies and encourages companies to act responsibly in areas each of those letters — ESG — represents.
Critics say companies making ESG investments are doing so to advance liberal policies, such as moving the United States away from fossil fuels, addressing gun violence, or protecting abortion rights. But you know how this works: Republican lawmakers and their “Make America Great Again” cohorts hear “climate change,” or “the Second Amendment,” or “give women free choices,” and that turns into “woke liberals are coming to steal your money, take your guns, kill your babies, and make you watch reruns of ‘Barney.’ On PBS.”
But businesses big and small, private investors of every caliber, and state government pension funds are always thinking of the long game and investment diversity, not only to stay in business but to satisfy their investors, if they’re public entities, or pension holders, if they’re state workers or teachers.
So along comes Nucor — a steel manufacturer in South Carolina, the largest steel producer in the United States, and the biggest recycler of scrap in North America.
Steel is everywhere in our lives, from transportation and infrastructure to construction and agriculture.
It also drives global warming, accounting for up to 9% of all the carbon dioxide emissions humans generated in 2020.
The solution: low-carbon steel. All steel contains carbon. Without it, you’d just have conventional iron. Carbon is what creates steel, making it stronger than iron. But carbon creates pollution, which contributes to global warming.
Nucor has invested in innovations that allow it to make low-carbon steel, which is just as strong; cheaper to make (which means bigger profits for the manufacturer); and a lower carbon footprint, which means it’s good for the environment. It’s also a paradigm shift in steel manufacturing, and Nucor is on the cutting edge.
What could possibly be wrong with that?
It’s liberal! Quick! Hide the children!
According to the state treasurer’s office in South Carolina, the goals of ESG “align perfectly with [a] progressive social agenda to undermine the American way of life and take away our economic freedoms.”
It’s amazing how Republicans can continue to create new facepalm moments.
What sounds like a more reasoned but equally bogus Republican argument is that investors who reward companies like Nucor are more interested in pushing “woke” policies (there’s that word again) instead of making money.
And yet Nucor posted record profits of $7.61 billion last year.
Besides, what business is it of helicoptering parent Republicans what a firm invests in or how it’s benefiting their investors, a company, a corporate board, or anyone else in the private sector? Don’t those investment firms, businesses, and companies have a right to choose their own business strategies?
Translation, why do Republicans like South Carolina’s treasurer hate economic freedom?
Palmetto State Republicans aren’t punishing Nucor directly. That would be unwise. Nucor’s steel was voted last year as the “coolest” thing made in South Carolina.
Instead, Republicans target financial firms that invest in companies like Nucor based on ESG factors, which, of course, does punish Nucor by impeding its efforts to grow its business. Yay, capitalism!
As of June 2023, Republican lawmakers in 37 states have so far introduced a total of 165 bills and nine resolutions that aim to eliminate or target state-level investment strategies and contracts involving ESG.
The dark-money hellions behind most of these proposals are names you know: The Heartland Institute, The Heritage Foundation, the Texas Public Policy Foundation, and everybody’s favorite, the American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC). They all have ties to the oil and gas industry. They and the energy conglomerates have a history of denying the existence of climate change dating back decades.
You might remember various shills nattily dressed who went on cable networks telling you that global warming was a hoax, a narrative that went into overdrive after Al Gore’s “An Inconvenient Truth” made the splash that it did.
The fact is, through disinformation, propaganda, and lobbying campaigns, the fossil fuel industry, along with those GOP dark-money powerhouses, has a history of denying the existence of climate change and its solutions dating back decades. Themes have included: it’s not real; it’s a hoax; it’s chicken little, it’s not caused by human activity; it’s a natural, eons-long heating and cooling cycle. And as authors Geoffrey Supran and Naomi Oreskes noted in 2021, it’s a campaign that continues to this day:
“Six big oil CEOs were summoned to US Congress to answer for the industry’s history of discrediting climate science — yet they lied under oath about it. In other words, the fossil fuel industry is now misleading the public about its history of misleading the public.”
But also in that hearing, while the oil barons acknowledged that the burning of their products was driving climate change, none pledged to end their financial support for efforts to block action on climate change, and they said fossil fuels were here to stay.
Didn’t we already go through this with the tobacco companies?
I’m not a climatologist, geologist, geochronologist, or any other kind of -ologist, but the scientific community — the national science academies of all major industrialized nations — consistently and overwhelmingly recognizes that our planet is warming and the primary cause is the exponential increase of greenhouse gases produced by human activity. If you can’t see this, what with more intense weather events, droughts, wildfires, floods, extreme heat, and increasingly violent storm systems, to play off a phrase of comedian Jeff Foxworthy, you might be a Republican.
Save for very few outliers, there’s no controversy in the scientific community, and the denialists are dwindling. Or paying a price.
Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) thinks climate change is a hoax but he’s willing to take federal aid to help his state get through — take a guess ― a 1,200-year drought plaguing the West and hammering Kansas wheat farmers especially hard.
Bootstraps, skippy. Pull them. That’s what I’d like to say, but it wouldn’t be fair to those farmers. It’s not their fault their senator is a hypocritical embarrassment.
For those still cemented in their views, no amount of scientific data will matter. I get it. You’re not interested in the science. You don’t trust it. You don’t believe it. Someone’s lying or maybe not telling you what you want to hear. Or you manage to find data you think affirms your beliefs, you shout it out and say, “See? Hoax!”
So, let’s try this. Take your belief — I don’t care what it is — and ask yourself this question: What’s the worst possible consequence if you’re wrong? There are two opinions and two possible courses of action for each opinion:
1. Climate change is a hoax; do nothing.
2. Climate change is a hoax; take action.
3. Climate change is real; take action.
4. Climate change is real; do nothing.
In each course of action, what’s the worst thing that could happen?1. If climate change is false, doing nothing would be correct. Our usual problems would exist but climate change wouldn’t be one of them.
2. If climate change is false and we take action, the worst-case scenario would be its imposition on global citizens: increased taxation, burdensome regulation, bloated government, and a potential global economic crisis. But the air would be cleaner, the water less foul, and the pursuit of alternative energy sources, from solar to nuclear, would create new economic opportunities.
3. If climate change is real and we take action, we’d have made the right decision. The cost associated with that decision would remain, but it would be money well spent. The climate may still change some, making it a different world, but livable because we took steps to avert an ecological calamity.
4. If climate change is real and we do nothing, the consequences are cataclysmic: economic upheaval, environmental ruin, public health disasters, political and social pandemonium on a global scale. Millions of displaced people would be at odds with others, fighting over scarce resources; breadbaskets in Canada, here and Russia would become dust bowls; coastal population centers, the nerve centers of most nations, would be devastated; famine and disease would be rampant.
The world would be unrecognizable. No one would escape its impact. No one is right now.
When the number of extreme heat days in Phoenix expands to a third of its year, when coastal cities are flooded, when waters off the coast of Florida are hitting temperatures better suited to your backyard hot tub, when mass migration causes chaos, when water supplies dry up, when crops fail due to rising temperatures, when glaciers and ice shelves melt completely, when the oceans get too acidified and decrease fish supply, when extreme weather events become even more prominent … will all these events taking place finally be convenient for oil conglomerates, climate denialists, and Republican lawmakers to get serious about carbon emission reduction? How many deaths and disasters will it take?
No one says preventive measures would be inexpensive, easy or trivial, whether those efforts are driven environmentally, socially or capitalistically.
But how do you measure the cost of catastrophic destruction that may not happen in the near term compared with the precautionary cost needed to protect us from it? By weighing whether the potential risk of taking action outweighs the risk of doing nothing.
Think about it in terms of buying car insurance. You may never need it, but what price do you pay if you do need it and don’t have it? My guess is, those decrying the cost of “climate insurance” would be the very same people declaring the motorist a fool for not buying auto insurance.
The difference, of course: Far fewer people are affected by a motorist’s imprudent choice. Is that the sort of game we want to play with the lives of 8 billion inhabitants?
No amount of money would be adequate enough to compensate for the inevitable cataclysmic losses from climate change. The only thing more dangerous are the denialists and partisan pig heads.
Ultimately, it’s the old “ounce of prevention” lesson our mothers used to preach. When it comes to the future of our planet, following Mom’s advice seems like a pretty good idea. What’s the worst that could possibly happen? Except maybe MAGA snowflakes getting their feelings hurt.
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July 4th Was the Hottest Day Ever Recorded on Earth | Entrepreneur
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Fireworks weren’t the only thing sizzling on July 4.
According to the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction, the global temperature soared to 62.92 degrees Fahrenheit (17.18 degrees Celsius), making the day the hottest since at least 1979, when the data was first collected.
But some scientists believe the Earth hasn’t experienced heat like this since mammoths roamed the planet.
“It hasn’t been this warm since at least 125,000 years ago, which was the previous interglacial,” Paulo Ceppi, a climate scientist at London’s Grantham Institute, told The Washington Post.
Just how hot was it? According to the Post’s extreme heat tracker, 57 million people in the US were exposed to dangerous heat yesterday. Texas has been under a deadly heat dome since last week, causing a public health crisis in that state.
Meanwhile, China has also been blanketed by a heat wave, the Antarctic is reporting record-high temperatures even though it’s winter, and temperatures in North Africa soared to 122F, according to Reuters.
Related: Bad Weather Won’t Ruin Your Vacation Anymore — One Company Will Pay You to Enjoy It Rain or Shine
The worst is yet to come
Climate scientists say the scorching weather is due to climate change, El Niño, and the start of summer.
While Tuesday’s record-breaking average temperature surpassed the previous mark of 62.62 Fahrenheit, which was set the day before, many believe even warmer temperatures are on the horizon.
“When’s the hottest day likely to be? It’s going to be when global warming, El Niño, and the annual cycle all line up together. Which is the next couple months,” said Myles Allen, a professor of geosystem science at Oxford University, told the Post. “It’s a triple whammy.”
The heat’s impact on the economy
The extreme heat doesn’t just impact our health — it also affects the economy.
“Extended bouts of great heat can result in more hospital visits, a sharp loss of productivity in construction and agriculture, reduced agricultural yields, and even direct damage to infrastructure,” according to Phys.org, a science, research, and technology news site.
A 2018 study found that hot summer months have a significant effect on the U.S. economy. “The data shows that annual growth falls 0.15 to 0.25 percentage points for every 1 degree Fahrenheit that a state’s average summer temperature was above normal,” researchers said.
Moreover, the International Labour Organization (ILO) predicts that, by 2030, heat waves could reduce the number of hours worked by more than 2%, which is about 80 million full-time jobs and a cost of $2.4 trillion.
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Jonathan Small
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World Registers Hottest Day Ever Recorded On July 3
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Monday, July 3, was the hottest day ever recorded globally, according to data from the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction.
The average global temperature reached 17.01 degrees Celsius (62.62 Fahrenheit), surpassing the August 2016 record of 16.92C (62.46F) as heatwaves sizzled around the world.
The southern U.S. has been suffering under an intense heat dome in recent weeks. In China, an enduring heatwave continued, with temperatures above 35C (95F). North Africa has seen temperatures near 50C (122F).
And even Antarctica, currently in its winter, registered anomalously high temperatures. Ukraine’s Vernadsky Research Base in the white continent’s Argentine Islands recently broke its July temperature record with 8.7C (47.6F).
“This is not a milestone we should be celebrating,” said climate scientist Friederike Otto of the Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment at Britain’s Imperial College London.
“It’s a death sentence for people and ecosystems.”
Scientists said climate change, combined with an emerging El Nino pattern, were to blame.
“Unfortunately, it promises to only be the first in a series of new records set this year as increasing emissions of [carbon dioxide] and greenhouse gases coupled with a growing El Nino event push temperatures to new highs,” said Zeke Hausfather, a research scientist at Berkeley Earth, in a statement.
(Reporting by Gloria Dickie; Editing by Mark Potter)
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When Nelly Warned of Climate Change
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As far as early 00s bangers go, Nelly’s “Hot in Herre” is difficult to top. Not only did it get people to take their clothes off at house parties worldwide, but it also smashed new records at a time when streaming was still germinal and the Grammys hadn’t even yet offered up yet an award for such a category as Best Male Rap Solo Performance. Nelly managed to secure almost a million (760,000, to be exact) streams on AOL Music’s “First Listen,” which was launched the same year “Hot in Herre” came out: 2002. As far as concern for global warming went that year, in an annual global climate report, it was assessed that: “Global temperatures in 2002 were 0.56°C (1.01°F) above the long-term (1880-2001) average, which places 2002 as the second warmest year on record.” Oh how saddened one is to use the phrase, “Little did they know…” here, but yes, little did humanity know (despite ceaseless and ominous warnings), it was all going to get so much worse. That is to say, so much fucking hotter. And yes, Nelly seemed to want to make a hit out of that no-brainer prophecy in a song like “Hot in Herre.”
Taking elements of Chuck Brown’s 1979 single, “Bustin’ Loose,” (hence, “I feel like bustin’ loose/And I feel like touchin’ you”), Nelly created a club (and yes, climate change) anthem out of it by also appearing in a music video helmed by Director X, already a beloved protégé of Hype Williams at that time. The scene of Nelly pulling up to the club in his car would end up seeming to inspire Britney Spears the following year in her own video for “Me Against the Music,” in which she, too, opens her video with a pulling up to the club scene. And, on a side full-circle note, “Me Against the Music” would be the one hundredth track for AOL Music, First Listen to offer up as an exclusive streaming preview. Because, back when such internet technology was still new, music releases could still be positioned as an “event.” As much as going to the club to dance in a sweat-drenched fever could be. And that’s precisely what happens for the majority of “Hot in Herre,” as female dancers (after all, it’s a rap video) with visible beads of sweat dripping down their faces and bodies do their best to ignore the unbearable temperature in the name of having a good time and also trying to get laid. Because there’s a reason wanting to bone goes back to a phrase like “being in heat.”
As Nelly moistens his lips, jumps the divider of his VIP area and approaches the woman who’s attracted his attention, played by Pasha Bleasdell (who tragically died of a brain tumor in 2022), bodies continue to converge on one another as Nelly gets his moment to shine on the dance floor with Bleasdell in front of him. While that goes on, many of the (mostly female) dancers in the club proceed to take Nelly’s advice about taking off their clothes—or at least pieces of them. The “sexily glistening” (as opposed to grossly sweaty) bodies that are paraded by Director X are of a uniquely 00s aesthetic that has only recently been revived with similar effect in Euphoria. Soon enough, Nelly is starting to take some of his own more frivolous articles of clothing off as other clubgoers fan each other with their hands and generally start to appear as though they’re attending a taping of MTV’s Spring Break as opposed to a Nelly video filmed in his adopted hometown of St. Louis. And, talking of St. Louis, the lesser-known version of the video (reserved for showing to the European set) took place in front of and inside of the famed St. Louis Arch (or at least a CGI’d version of it). Starting with Cedric the Entertainer as the bouncer (in the original, he’s the DJ) for the club that the Arch has become, various revelers enter the elevator leading up through the Arch as one man blows his hand back and forth to indicate the hotness inside the elevator, though it actually looks like he’s just trying to wave away the scent of someone else’s fart.
Soon, Nelly pulls up to the arch and gets in the elevator with just one other woman as we’re asked to ignore the architectural impossibility of a nightclub being able to “fit” inside the so-called top of the Arch. And while, yes, one can technically ride to the “top,” the elevators to do so are nothing like the posh one presented in Nelly’s rendering of it. But, clearly, 2002 was a much easier time for enlisting viewers’ suspension of disbelief.
As a randomly-placed thermometer shows the temperature going up while more people enter the imaginary “Arch Club” (complete with a staircase in the background), Nelly pretty much recreates the same scenes from the U.S. version of the video, except with a far more “European” slant…in that when people start to peel one another’s clothes off, director Bille Woodruff is sure to capture the sweat whipping off people’s bodies as this happens. We’re talking it looks practically like the Flashdance bucket scene. Woodruff, unfortunately, would also direct a number of R. Kelly videos over the years, whose crimes against women would make Nelly’s various rape allegations (one of which broke just before the #MeToo movement of 2017 did) look positively tame…not to trivialize what happened to the women who were assaulted by Nelly. But, back in 2002, both men were still safe and protected in their fame bubble, chock-full of enablers and sycophants as it was. The pressure, for Nelly, didn’t get truly “hot in herre” until #MeToo finally did. The roof was on fire, in other words, much as it is in the club in the U.S. version of the video, at which point the ceiling sprinklers finally burst. The way a storm has to erupt whenever it gets too sweltering. As for the second version of the video, the thermometer ends up breaking, spewing red mercury as it does.
At the end of the decade that Nelly reigned over (though really just the first half of it), the 00s were reported as being the hottest on record. “Hot in Herre” (“herre” being this cesspool of a globe) indeed. But that was soon to be topped by the report on the burning temperatures of the 2010s. Undeniably, the 2020s will keep upping the previously-held records, with Nelly’s formerly “sexy” single becoming, increasingly, an eerie and macabre prophecy. Complete with him also telling people to “let it just fall out” and “let it hang all out.” Elsewhere among his rapey lyricism, he includes, “I got a friend with a pole in the basement/(What?)/I’m just kiddin’ like Jason/Unless you gon’ do it…”
Cringeworthy moments of the song aside (including “What good is all the fame if you ain’t fuckin’ the models?”), Nelly does bring up a valid question when he keeps urging people to take their clothes off in the heat. And that is: will clothes really still be required when the heat gets more insufferable? Like, Hades-level insufferable. Or can we all go back to Garden of Eden’ing it despite being a very long way from paradise? Which the weather of 2002 looks more and more like from this perspective.
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Genna Rivieccio
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“Snow on the Beach,” Climate Change Child’s Play, Doesn’t Provide the Best Simile For Evoking the “Unusual” Phenomenon of Falling in Requited Love
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Even when “Snow on the Beach” was “first” released on the first iteration of Taylor Swift’s Midnights, “all the way back” in October of 2022, it was already a stretch to liken something “weird” (i.e., falling in requited love with someone) to snow falling on the beach. Because if the past several years should have taught people—even those in a protective bubble like Taylor Swift and Lana Del Rey—anything, it’s that formerly “absurd” weather phenomena are now to be the norm (along with arbitrarily unleashed novel viruses). Nay, they are the norm. And, although some wouldn’t expect it, it is, in fact, rising temperatures that can eventually result in extremely cold weather scenarios. More specifically, “Ice Age” weather scenarios.
Take, for example, the “cold blob” of water that has come to roost in the area south of Greenland. Its origins are a result of melting glaciers—melting ever more rapidly as we keep ordering our useless shit from the internet. And yet, despite the scalding temperatures that are visiting Earth at present, the effect those temperatures have on “water blobs” like the one south of Greenland influence the flow of the Gulf Stream, which is responsible for “ferrying” warm water to the north. If that flow is compromised enough, the litany of consequences could include, but are not limited to, a steep drop in temperatures throughout Europe, rising sea levels on the East Coast and more ferocious, unpredictable hurricanes. And that’s just on the Atlantic side of things. The Pacific has its own barrage of ticking time bombs.
The bottom line, of course, is that seeing snow on the beach would hardly be “surprising” or “unusual” in an Ice Age kind of setting. Or just a post-climate apocalypse one. A “setting” that Swift herself is arguably more responsible for than Del Rey, with the former being an avid private jet user and the latter being just a garden-variety lover of casual joy riding in her car (#justride). Nonetheless, they relish singing, in “angelic” voices on the newest edition of the song (featuring “More Lana”) from Midnights (The Til Dawn Edition), “Are we falling like snow at the beach/Weird but fuckin’ beautiful?” To be clear, it’s neither that weird nor is it especially “beautiful,” so much as utterly unsettling and chilling (no pun intended).
Yet the eeriness of such a sight is taken as an opportunity for Swift and Del Rey to try their hand at some overly wistful and romantic Jane Austen shit. Austen, however, gets a pass for being so maudlin about falling in love because she lived in an era where climate change was nary a thought in one’s mind (despite the fact that she witnessed the height of the British Industrial Revolution). She could afford to be “chimerical.” Technically, so can Swift and Del Rey, who comprise the echelons of wealth that will be able to, in some form or other, shield themselves from the climate change fallout (perhaps with an actual fallout shelter).
With Del Rey being given the opportunity on the new version of “Snow on the Beach” to sing a full verse, she croons, “This scene feels like what I once saw on a screen/I searched ‘aurora borealis green.’” This, too, brings up the fact that even the Northern Lights aren’t immune to the taint of climate change either. Like the stars in the sky dimming as a result of light pollution, aurora borealis will suffer from its own dimming—but, in this case, due to alterations in cloud formations that will inevitably obscure the brilliance of the lights. So yes, Del Rey will actually need to search on a screen for the kind of erstwhile “aurora borealis green” she’s looking for.
Barring climate change as a reason for snow on the beach, there’s also the consideration of how many beaches already do offer up snowy tableaus regularly. For example, Kings Beach in Tahoe, Chatham Lighthouse Beach in Cape Cod, Unstad Beach on Norway’s Lofoten Islands (where you can see aurora borealis), Sopot Beach in Sopot, Poland and Loch Morlich Beach in the Scottish Highlands. Then you have the beach that made snow on the beach truly famous: the one in Montauk where a large portion of Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind takes place. And perhaps Swift got her inspiration from this very movie, what with Joel and Clementine starting to fall back in love on the now snow-dappled beach they initially met on.
And yet, snow is just as liable to become part of “the new normal” (that hideous phrase people like to use to “normalize” the long-forewarned effects of capitalism) in places perennially associated with “nothing but sunshine.” Case in point, one beach that wasn’t accustomed to getting snow until recent years is Torre Lapillo in Puglia. The unlikely snowfall that occurred there in 2017 dredged up a five-hundred-year-old prophecy from Matteo Tafuri that stated two days of snowfall in Salento would be part of heralding the apocalypse. The snow came again in 2019. So surely, we’re that much closer. If not to the kind of apocalypse that signals a bang so much as a whimper, then at least the kind that standardizes snow on the beach to a point where Tay and LDR’s simile becomes increasingly less meaningful.
As for Wallace S. Broecker, the preeminent scientist who made the term “global warming” take off in the 70s (before Dick Cheney decided that sounded too “icky” and made “climate change” the phrase instead), he’s likely not hearing the song from beyond the grave with much glee. After all, he had urged the world, before his death in 2019, to take far more drastic measures to avoid the “many more surprises in the greenhouse” to come. Trying to make snow on the beach seem like something “abnormal” while we’re already living in a climate change scenario certainly isn’t going to help with that.
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Genna Rivieccio
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Study: Climate Change Making Airplane Turbulence Worse
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A new study shows that climate change is causing more instability in jet streams and making wind speeds faster, with turbulence predicted to triple in frequency between 2050 and 2080. What do you think?
“I can’t wait to take this out on a flight attendant!”
Jeremy Coit, Herb Farmer
“Can’t they just fly above the climate?”
Eleanor Rebadon, Detritus Collector
“Finally, an incentive to tackle climate change.”
Aaron Bauserman, Synopsizer
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