ReportWire

Tag: Global trade

  • Nigeria bans export of shea nuts used in beauty creams for six months

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    Nigeria has announced a six-month ban on the export of raw shea nuts from which many beauty creams are made.

    The move is aimed at making the trade more lucrative as Nigeria is losing out by not producing much shea butter locally.

    The country produces nearly 40% of the world’s annual crop, but it only accounts for 1% of the $6.5bn (£4.8bn) global market – a situation Vice-President Kashim Shettima described as “unacceptable”.

    Harvested fruit from shea nut trees have to be crushed, roasted and boiled to extract their oil to produce the shea butter used in cosmetics.

    The butter is also used in the food industry in the production of some sweets like chocolate and ice creams – and in pharmaceuticals too.

    Shea trees grow in the wild from West to East Africa – a vast strip known as the “shea belt”. Small-scale farmers, often women, also plant and harvest them in these areas.

    Shettima said the temporary ban would enable Nigeria to move from being an exporter of the raw nuts to a global supplier of refined shea products.

    ”It is about industrialisation, rural transformation, gender empowerment and expanding Nigeria’s global trade footprint,” the vice-president said during the announcement at State House in the capital, Abuja.

    The short-term aim, he said, was to see Nigeria’s earnings from the fruit of the shea nut trees grow from $65m to $300m annually.

    Nigeria Agriculture Minister Abubakar Kyari has said the West African nation produces a crop of 350,000 tonnes a year – with nearly 25% of that disappearing over the borders in unregulated informal trade.

    According to agriculture expert Dr Ahmed Ismail, much of the harvest comes from villages in central Nigeria.

    ”A lot of poor people who grow the crop and rely on it for sustenance are struggling to get by because of a lack of regulation, which means they get so little despite its high value internationally,” the academic from the Federal University of Minna told the BBC.

    Farmers unaware of the true value of shea nuts were often exploited by businessmen who travel to these remote areas to buy it cheaply, he explained.

    ”I went to a village and I saw shea nuts in heaps and when I asked, they said someone from the city comes to buy and take them away.”

    Dr Ismail said the temporary ban was a bold step that should have been taken long ago – and should go hand-in-hand with better regulation.

    “This will not only provide more jobs locally as refining will be done here, but will also enhance income for the government,” he said.

    More BBC stories on Nigeria:

    [Getty Images/BBC]

    Go to BBCAfrica.com for more news from the African continent.

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  • Asian Development Bank raises growth forecast for region, but warns of risks from trade sanctions

    Asian Development Bank raises growth forecast for region, but warns of risks from trade sanctions

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    Developing economies in Asia are forecast to grow at a 5.0% annual pace this year, helped by a strong U.S. economy and surging demand for computer chips that power artificial intelligence, the Asian Development Bank said in a report Wednesday.

    The forecast was revised upward slightly from the ADB’s April estimate of 4.9% growth.

    However, the regional lender warned of the potential threat of more protectionist measures, such as higher tariffs on exports from China, depending on the outcome of the U.S. presidential election.

    The report highlighted several positive trends, including a rebound in exports from Asia of computer chips and other advanced electronics this year due to rapid adoption of artificial intelligence. It also noted that energy and food prices are moderating, though inflation remains painfully high in countries such as Pakistan, Laos and Myanmar.

    The upturn in global demand for semiconductors and related electronics materials and components has helped drive stronger growth in Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore and South Korea, and to a lesser extent, the Philippines and Thailand, and that trend is expected to continue.

    The report cited data from World Semiconductor Trade Statistics projecting that spending on memory chips, vital for AI applications, will expand 77% this year.

    Other types of exports, especially autos from China and South Korea, also are growing quickly, it said.

    The U.S. presidential election is a major source of uncertainty.

    “The election could result in higher blanket tariffs by the U.S. on all global imports, and a broad-based and steep increase in tariffs on all U.S. imports from the PRC (China),” the report said. “This would significantly escalate U.S.-PRC trade tensions, with potential negative spillovers to developing Asia through real and financial channels.”

    Former President Donald Trump has pledged to stop U.S. businesses from shipping jobs overseas and to take other countries’ jobs and factories away by relying heavily on sweeping tariffs. Vice President Kamala Harris has criticized Trump’s plan to impose large tariffs on most imported goods, which she says would severely raise the cost of goods.

    Asia’s developing economies are also vulnerable to other U.S. moves that might affect their currencies or the cost of borrowing on foreign loans, the report said.

    China’s ailing property market remains a key risk and the report kept its forecasts for growth for the world’s second-largest economy at 4.8% in 2024 and 4.5% next year. The ADB’s chief economist, Albert Park, welcomed a flurry of fresh measures announced Tuesday by Beijing to cut borrowing costs and encourage more home purchases.

    “It’s good to see. Certainly there’s room for monetary policy expansion,” he told reporters in a briefing before the report’s release. “Whether that will work remains to be seen.”

    Among other positive developments, the report noted that energy inflation has returned to levels seen before the COVID-19 pandemic began in 2020. That alleviates pressures on some economies that depend heavily on imports of oil and other fuels, such as Sri Lanka, China and Japan.

    Food inflation is still slightly higher, but falling. Rice prices fell by 12% to $589 per metric ton in late August after hitting a 16-year peak of $669 per metric ton in late January, the report said.

    They are expected to fall further, as rice harvests are projected to hit record levels in the 2024-2025 growing year, and prices for wheat and maize also have declined. Crops are likely to benefit from the La Nina climate phenomenon, which could bring beneficial higher rainfall to some regions though it also could cause destructive flooding in others.

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  • Why betting on the Trump trade is a real mistake

    Why betting on the Trump trade is a real mistake

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    If you’re among investors hoping for a robust return of the Trump trade, it might be wise to hold off for a while and stay disciplined.

    “People are way too bullish on Trump at this point,” TastyLive founder and CEO Tom Sosnoff told Yahoo Finance Executive Editor Brian Sozzi on his Opening Bid podcast (see the video above or listen here).

    Those jumping on the Trump trade bandwagon are “making a huge mistake,” Sosnoff added. “This thing is going to go back and forth” and could be a money-losing trade, Sosnoff warned.

    The Trump trade is a market phenomenon where investors bet on possible benefits (see lower taxes, fewer regulations) of a Trump presidency.

    Technology and finance were two sectors that flourished during Trump’s first term, as did industrials and energy as he passed tax cuts and focused on domestic energy production.

    During Trump’s term, between 2016 and 2020, the S&P 500 rose by over 50%. The tech sector rose well over 150%, and consumer discretionary rose over 103%. Individual winners were many, chief among them chip player AMD (AMD), which rose 1,000%. Apple’s (AAPL) stock advanced more than 365%.

    A second Trump presidency could bring a favorable environment for industries such as clean coal, nuclear energy, fossil fuels, consumer finance, and the defense sector, according to Isaac Boltansky of BTIG. Think a broadening of the old Trump trade.

    On the flip side, a Democratic victory looks to favor green energy, global trade, and the defense sector, among others.

    “All else being equal, the US economy has continued to grow no matter who controls the White House,” wrote Boltansky in a note to clients.

    MIDDLETOWN, OHIO - JULY 23: A campaign sign hangs in the window of the Butler County Republican Party headquarters on July 23, 2024 in Middletown, Ohio. Middletown, which has a population of around 51,000 residents, is where Republican vice presidential candidate Ohio Senator JD Vance was raised and attended high school.  (Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images)

    MIDDLETOWN, OHIO – JULY 23: A campaign sign hangs in the window of the Butler County Republican Party headquarters on July 23, 2024 in Middletown, Ohio. (Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images) (Scott Olson via Getty Images)

    Political headlines have flown fast and furious over the past two weeks, with an assassination attempt, returning COVID-19 reports, President Joe Biden’s decision to not seek reelection, and Kamala Harris’ rise.

    In the wake of the assassination attempt, private prison and gun stocks went up, while Trump Media and Technology (DJT) enjoyed a bounce as well.

    The Trump trade in full effect.

    If buzz and headlines make investors dizzy, it’s understandable. Still, “it’s not so much about the news,” said Sosnoff, a former CBOE floor trader and founder of trading platform Thinkorswim. “It’s about how the markets are reacting to whatever’s happening.”

    Instead of trading “the political house of cards,” he said, “I would just trade as you would normally trade.”

    Three times each week, Yahoo Finance Executive Editor Brian Sozzi fields insight-filled, market-focused conversations and chats with the biggest names in business on Opening Bid. Find more episodes on our video hub. Watch on your preferred streaming service. Or listen and subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you find your favorite podcasts.

    In the below Opening Bid episode, long-time NYSE floor trader Peter Tuchman shares his top advice to his fellow trading community. One reminder: trading isn’t a game.

    Click here for in-depth analysis of the latest stock market news and events moving stock prices

    Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance

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  • Why U.S. ports are getting a $21 billion upgrade

    Why U.S. ports are getting a $21 billion upgrade

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    U.S. ports are receiving multimillion dollar grants to upgrade cargo handling infrastructure.

    The grants are part of the Biden administration’s $21 billion commitment to modernize port infrastructure in the U.S.

    Midsize port cities such as Baltimore are among the 2023 grant recipients. In November, the Port of Baltimore received a $47 million grant to kick-start an offshore wind manufacturing hub, among other improvements. For example, the funds will pay for a new berth, or dock, for rolling cargo. Baltimore is the top U.S. destination for rolling cargo imports, a category including farm machinery from John Deere and light-duty vehicles from BMW, according to the Maryland Port Administration.

    More than $653 million in Port Infrastructure Development Program grants were awarded to U.S. ports in 2023 by the U.S. Department of Transportation, Maritime Administration. Other projects receiving federal funds include the Port of Tacoma Husky Terminal Expansion in Washington state ($54.2 million), and the North Harbor Transportation System Improvement Project in Long Beach, California ($52.6 million).

    Port improvements are also coming from the Environmental Protection Agency, which offers funds to combat truck idling. The U.S. Department of Defense is deepening some waterways on the East Coast to welcome larger ships.

    Baltimore isn’t the only city with a growing port according to maritime economists. Experts say gateways along the U.S. southeast coast are moving more cargo as major points of entry clog up with truck traffic.

    “All of the ports on the East Coast are upgrading their infrastructure and capacity,” said Walter Kemmsies, managing partner at the Kemmsies Group, a maritime economics consulting firm currently working with the Port Authority of Georgia in Savannah. “What that does is it makes it more attractive to the ocean carriers. They like to be able to go in and out of a port very quickly, and they like to go to several ports.”

    Ports America formed a public-private partnership with the state of Maryland to manage equipment and operations in sections of the Port of Baltimore. The group told CNBC that $550 million in upgrades have gone into Seagirt Marine Terminal alone for densification of the container yard since the partnership began in 2010.

    These upgrades build on past plans to revive America’s declining industrial cities. In Baltimore, public officials are addressing bottlenecks along the supply chain beyond the Port. They believe that the Howard Street Tunnel expansion project will increase double-stack rail capacity out of Baltimore, which could help the companies working at the port move goods to and from points in the Midwest.

    Watch the video above to see more of the upgrades coming to the Port of Baltimore.

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  • U.S. warned China to expect updated export curbs in October, official says

    U.S. warned China to expect updated export curbs in October, official says

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    U.S. President Joe Biden makes a statement to the news media ahead of a cabinet meeting at the White House in Washington, U.S.

    Leah Millis | Reuters

    The Biden administration warned Beijing of its plans to update rules that curb shipments of AI chips and chipmaking tools to China as soon as early October, a U.S. official said, a policy decision aimed at stabilizing relations between the superpowers.

    The Commerce Department, which oversees export controls, is working on an update of export restrictions first released last year. The update seeks to limit access to more chipmaking tools in line with new Dutch and Japanese rules, other sources said, and to close some loopholes in export restrictions on artificial intelligence (AI) chips.

    “The PRC has been expecting an update around the one year anniversary, based on conversations with administration officials,” the U.S. official said, using the abbreviation for People’s Republic of China. The original rules were published Oct. 7, 2022.

    U.S. officials provided the information to Chinese counterparts in recent weeks, the official said, which Reuters is reporting for the first time. The official declined to disclose details on the particular conversations.

    Providing China with a heads up about the rules is part of a broader bid by the Biden administration to stabilize relations with Beijing. The outreach comes after a decision by the U.S. to shoot down a Chinese spy balloon sharply escalated tensions in February.

    The Biden administration has also sent a series of high-level officials to China, including Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo in August. Additionally, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan held talks with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in September.

    CNBC Politics

    Read more of CNBC’s politics coverage:

    The restrictions released last October sought to prevent U.S. technology from being used to strengthen the Chinese military by cutting off its access to advanced AI chips and curbing its ability to import the most sophisticated chipmaking tools from the United States.

    The Department of Commerce declined comment, while a spokesperson for the Chinese embassy in Washington had “nothing to offer,” when asked for comment on the warning.

    “China firmly opposes the U.S.’s overstretching of the national security concept and abuse of export control measures to wantonly hobble Chinese enterprises,” said spokesperson Liu Pengyu.

    Former White House official Peter Harrell stressed that he did not know if the administration had warned China about the new rules, but said, if they did, it would represent “a bit of an inflection point” for the administration as it tries to avoid sending misunderstood signals.

    Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen also gave Chinese officials a warning in July about restrictions on U.S. investment in China released in August.

    The Biden administration is hoping to clinch Chinese President Xi Jinping’s attendance at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in San Francisco in November, too, an effort which also has weighed on the timing of the upcoming export rules’ release.

    Officials have sought to avoid publishing them in the immediate lead-up to the summit, which they saw as potentially jeopardizing Xi’s attendance, sources said. Any rules not ready for publication by early October would likely be held until after the summit to avoid antagonizing China, they noted.

    “The Administration narrowed in on or near the one-year anniversary for a number of reasons – including to establish a clear cadence,” the official said.

    But, the official added, the technical work needed to finalize the restrictions was not yet complete. “As of this moment, final plans are not in place,” the official said on Friday.

    Biden and Xi have not met in person since a G20 summit on Indonesia’s resort island of Bali in November last year after Xi shunned the G20 meeting in India last month.

    Why manufacturing is coming back to the U.S.

    The United States, the Netherlands and Japan, which together control the world’s top chipmaking equipment, agreed to coordinate efforts earlier this year.

    The upcoming U.S. rules could hit ASML, the world’s leading chip equipment maker and Netherlands’ largest company, because its systems contain U.S. parts and components, as Reuters exclusively reported in June.

    A spokeswoman for ASML declined comment.

    It is not unusual for the U.S. to modify proposals before clearing regulations, so the restrictions, like the timing, could change.

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  • PlayStation, treasure hunts and natural wonders: What life is like onboard a giant oil tanker

    PlayStation, treasure hunts and natural wonders: What life is like onboard a giant oil tanker

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    An oil tanker being serviced by a bunkering vessel.

    Courtesy: Hafnia

    If you think that life at sea is like the movie franchise “Pirates of the Caribbean,” think again.

    The movies, which feature ambushes, looting and a drunken captain, are far from real life, according to shipping veteran Ralph Juhl.

    “That is, of course, a lot of bollocks,” Juhl told CNBC by phone.

    For starters, the consumption of alcohol is banned on many ships.

    But there is one similarity with the movie, Juhl said: the code of conduct between seafarers. In the franchise, the Pirate’s Code was chronicled in a book kept by character Captain Teague, and loosely followed by some.

    For those who sail for a living, there is a similar type of agreement, Juhl said.

    The crew on board an oil tanker operated by Hafnia.

    Courtesy: Hafnia

    “Seafarers, no matter where they come from — India, Ukraine, Denmark, the Philippines — there is this conduct of how you behave on a ship … You can actually endanger both yourself and all of your colleagues if you are not playing that social game, being on board the ship. So, you take responsibility, you follow authority,” Juhl said.

    Juhl, an executive vice-president at oil tanker firm Hafnia, has worked in the industry for several decades, starting as an ordinary seaman — the lowest rank of sailor — in 1983.

    “When you as a seafarer [go] on board … you are a contribution to the society and you have to fit in … there is this code of the high seas,” he added.

    A captain’s life

    “Pirates of the Caribbean” is a seafaring stereotype familiar to Hafnia’s DSA Dixon, who has been a captain for five years. Dixon — who sails vessels known as product tankers, which transport both refined and unrefined petroleum products around the world — had to convince his parents-in-law that his role was nothing like the movie, he told CNBC by phone.

    “A lot of people have a very different representation of a seafarer, looking at Pirates of the Caribbean,” he said.

    Captain DSA Dixon (in black) says he invents games to keep his crew’s morale up during months at sea.

    DSA Dixon | Hafnia

    Dixon might be captaining a ship such as the huge Hafnia Rhine, which is about 230 meters long by 33 meters wide, with a capacity of more than 76,000 deadweight tons — a measure that includes the oil cargo, plus fuel, food, water and crew members, but not the weight of the ship itself.

    Where the ship goes depends on where the demand for oil is and Dixon has sailed to every continent bar Antarctica, he said.

    Dixon aims to keep to a schedule of three months at sea followed by three months at home in Mumbai, India, he said, and he started his most recent voyage on the Mississippi River in the U.S., sailing to Brazil and going on to Saudi Arabia via Gibraltar and the Suez Canal, before returning to Brazil.

    The greatest part of my job is I’ve seen things that an average human being might not.

    Compared to someone working an office job, Dixon said he spends more time with his wife and six-year-old son, as when he is at home he’s “completely” there. “I love this part of my life, because when I go back home, I’m Santa Claus,” he said. “It doesn’t get stagnated at any point – when it’s about to get stagnated, I’m back at sea.”

    High days and holidays

    Aside from navigation, Dixon said the most important part of his job is to keep the crew in good spirits, as they spend months at sea together.

    “We have at times, 20, 25 people on board, they’re all different nationalities, different cultures, different languages … our ship is as good as the people on it,” Dixon said.

    There’s no fixed daily routine, Dixon added. “There’s no one way to describe life on board. It’s challenging of course, but the challenge keeps you motivated all the time,” he said.

    Along with navigation and managing the crew, Dixon might be talking to officials who come aboard when the ship is docked or coming up with ways to celebrate religious festivals.

    The engine control room of an oil tanker. Hafnia Chief Engineer Dmytro Lifarenko spent around six months on board during the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020.

    Courtesy: Hafnia

    “Irrespective of nationality, or religion, people celebrate each other’s events or festivals,” Dixon said. “I even invent something like a treasure hunt on board. The ship is massive, I divide [crew] into teams … and let them find their own way,” Dixon added.

    These games might sound “kiddish,” but they serve an important purpose, Dixon said. “These are grown-up men, some might be 50 years-old, and they’re doing this, but it’s the way to bond … we need to socialize and a happy ship is always an excellent vessel,” Dixon said.

    Dixon makes sure the crew take Sundays off, spending it as they choose: perhaps playing PlayStation, chatting or sleeping. “I make sure there’s an excellent lunch,” Dixon added.

    Traveling across oceans means getting to experience some of the world’s natural spectacles, with Dixon seeing the light phenomenon aurora borealis — also known as the northern lights — while sailing near Norway.

    An aurora borealis light display in the southern part of Norway, one of the natural spectacles seen by oil tanker captain DSA Dixon during his seafaring life.

    Heiko Junge | Afp | Getty Images

    “The only regret I have is what I see I’m not able to share it, I want my family to see [things] at that very point, at that very moment, a photograph won’t capture it,” Dixon said. How did he feel seeing the lights? “You feel complete, I will say. You feel abundant,” he said.

    “The greatest part of my job is I’ve seen things that an average human being might not,” he added.

    Rough waters

    Alongside enjoying scenes of wonder, life as a seafarer can be tough.

    Hafnia Chief Engineer Dmytro Lifarenko is from Ukraine and was at home when Russia invaded the country in February 2022, fleeing with his wife and children across Europe to Valencia in Spain.

    “I don’t know how I would handle … knowing that the bombs were there and I’m on board,” he told CNBC by phone, speculating about how he would have felt if he had been at sea when war broke out.

    While his most recent voyage was five months long — sailing from Singapore to France and then Australia — he has recently taken extended leave to settle his family in their new home.

    Chief Engineer Dmytro Lifarenko is from Ukraine and was at home when Russia invaded the country in February 2022. He has since moved with his family to Spain.

    Dmytro Lifarenko | Hafnia

    “I miss my family a lot during the voyage,” Lifarenko said — he and his wife have three children: a daughter of six months, six-year-old son and a 12-year-old daughter.

    “Being two parents for three kids, this is fine. Being [effectively] a single mom for our kids, that’s very difficult … to be honest, this is the worst part of the job.”

    This is something Juhl is sympathetic to: “That’s a big ‘uncomfort’ for many seafarers, that they are now so involved in their family [while at sea], even though they can’t do anything about it,” he said.

    The boiler suit dressed man with a big spanner — it’s not the sailor that we’ll need in the future.

    Ralph Juhl

    Executive vice president, Hafnia

    During the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, Lifarenko spent about six months onboard, which is longer than his usual voyage. He said guided meditations sent to him by Hafnia were useful to deal with an uncertain situation.

    “You keep thinking about the things that you actually cannot change, and that’s quite close to depression, but this [was] like a helpful hand,” he said.

    But, despite some downsides, Lifarenko said he loves his job because of its variety. “You cannot say what is your routine, because the routine part is quite small. Most of the time, you are solving some situation, which requires you to use your brain, and you’re thinking, how to fix this … or how can we maintain this in a better way,” he said.

    He has also enjoyed seeing the natural world while onboard, including spotting whales and sailing close to the volcanic Canary Islands.

    Future sailors

    Juhl spent more than a decade as a seafarer, starting at age 16 and sailing to places such as Honduras and South Korea, and becoming a navigator on chemical carrier ships before captaining ferries. He came onshore in 1997 and is now responsible for Hafnia’s technical operations. He described those onboard as “working their butts off.”

    “They never go ashore anymore, there are terminals far away from cities and so on. So, this romantic life and impression of seafarers, it is pretty much gone. It’s hard work,” he said.

    Oil tanker crew prepare mooring ropes to secure a bunker barge to their vessel for refueling.

    Courtesy: Hafnia

    This means attracting the next generation of crew is potentially tougher. “It’s a lonely life from time to time. And today you cannot offer young people loneliness,” he said.

    Juhl wants to encourage more women to become seafarers and Hafnia is working on a pilot program to operate two ships where half the crew are female, to understand how the culture onboard might change, both positively and negatively, and how to solve that.

    However, issues remain: Authorities in countries where women are discriminated against might not deal with female captains, for example, so Hafnia has had to temporarily assign a male captain for port stays in such places, Juhl said.

    There has been internet access on board tankers for just a couple of years, Juhl added, and he wants to get creative about what might be possible as technology involves. 

    He’s especially keen for sailors to be able to communicate with their families at home, he said.

    “Hopefully we can soon make holograms where the captain can go to his cabin with his supper, and then he can open his hologram and he can sit and eat with his wife … we have to think that way,” Juhl said. And new technology will mean seafarers need different skills. “The boiler suit dressed man with a big spanner — it’s not the sailor that we’ll need in the future,” he said.

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  • Ukraine’s corn and wheat exports are set to plummet. Here’s what that means for the world’s food supply

    Ukraine’s corn and wheat exports are set to plummet. Here’s what that means for the world’s food supply

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    An aerial view of the Turkish-flagged ship “Polarnet” carrying grain from Ukraine is seen at the Derince Port, Kocaeli, Turkiye on August 08, 2022. 

    Omer Faruk Cebeci | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images

    Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine is causing a global shift in the trading of grains — which feed billions of people every day — and Ukraine’s harvest this year could plummet by as much as 50% compared to before the war.

    Both Ukraine and Russia were among the world’s top producers of commodities such as wheat and barley before the war broke out in February 2022. But the conflict saw the price of U.S. wheat and corn futures hit decade highs (with one benchmark wheat contract hitting an all-time high) and sparked volatility in global wheat prices throughout the year. Prices stabilized in 2023, dropping around 13% in the year to date.

    “Trade flows change and fluctuate, they always have,” said Andrew Whitelaw, co-founder and director of Episode 3, an agricultural analysis firm. “Bearing in mind that 20-odd years ago, Russia wasn’t an important exporter of grains … It’s grown in the last 20 years [and] Ukraine and Russia have now become the top exporters.”

    And while last year’s yield and export of grains such as wheat from Ukraine were still significant despite the war and closure of ports in the Black Sea, the quantities harvested and shipped this year are likely to reduce.

    The Black Sea Grain Initiative, a deal brokered by the U.N. in Turkey to guide ships safely out of Ukrainian ports, was only extended by 60 days in March — a reduction on the previous 120-day period.

    Whitelaw described last year’s wheat crop as “pretty good” in Ukraine and “absolutely fantastic” in Russia, but said Ukraine’s harvest is likely to be down around 20% in 2023 because farmers have sown fewer crops.

    “This year, there’s things like — in Ukraine — lack of access to finance, lack of access to fertilizers, fuel, labor, but also the price of grain in Ukraine is really low. So, the incentive for the farmers to plant it is lower,” he told CNBC via phone.

    “We’re seeing lower acreages or area devoted to these crops in Ukraine, which means that probably the larger impact of it may be felt this year, from a supply and demand fundamentals [perspective] than last year.”

    The Ukraine losses will need to be made up elsewhere over time, including from Russia itself but with a stronger focus on US, Canada, Brazil, and Argentina.

    Aakash Doshi

    Citi Research

    Indeed, figures from the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization suggest that 20-30% of the acreage of winter wheat crops sown in Ukraine last year will not be harvested this summer because of a lack of fuel availability.

    Aakash Doshi, who is head of commodities, North America at Citi Research, said that Ukrainian grain harvests and exports this year could be down as much as 50% on pre-war levels.

    Ukraine had a bumper corn crop of 42 million metric tons (mmt) in 2021, per Citi Research figures, and the bank estimates this will reduce to between 21 and 22 mmt in 2023/24.

    For wheat, the 2021 harvest was 33mt, according to Citi Research, and its forecast for this year “might be 16-17mmt,” Doshi told CNBC by email.

    As well as crop yields, exports will also reduce, he said. “Grain trade flows from Ukraine should see volumes decline, but not as much as outright production declines, since domestic consumption is weak. 2023/24 Ukraine grains exports (corn + wheat) might be 27-30mmt, down 15-18mmt from 2021/22,” he added.

    A Polish farmer during an April 12, 2022 protest against Ukrainian grain imports, which have lowered prices for crops in Poland.

    Attila Husejnow | Sopa Images | Lightrocket | Getty Images

    There is a current surplus of Ukrainian grain in Central European countries, creating a rift with countries including Poland, Hungary, Bulgaria and Slovakia.

    Falling prices caused protests among Polish farmers as well as the resignation of Poland’s Agriculture Minister Henryk Kowalczyk this month. On April 7, his successor Robert Telus said exports of grain from Ukraine to Poland would be limited and halted “for now,” according to a Reuters report.

    Longer term, Doshi sees opportunities for grain exports from North and South America to the Middle East, North Africa and Asia, and if crops are good, from Australia to East Asia.

    “In other words, the Ukraine losses will need to be made up elsewhere over time, including from Russia itself but with a stronger focus on U.S., Canada, Brazil, and Argentina exportable surplus,” Doshi said.

    Agricultural analyst Whitelaw also said the market is likely to shift, including from Russia. “The trade flows will have to change and there’s not that many places that you can get large volumes of grain to replace the volumes that Russia has been [providing]. And so, it really is down to … South American countries, the U.S., parts of Europe and Australia,” he said.

    Global food trade

    The war in Ukraine has contributed to rising food prices, with inflation above 5% in more than 80% of low-income countries, according to World Bank figures.

    But while restrictions on exports from Ukraine have had an impact on food prices, rising energy and fertilizer costs are likely to have an even greater effect, according to research by a team at Edinburgh University led by Peter Alexander, published in February. The study suggests that there could be up to 1 million additional deaths in the Middle East, sub-Saharan Africa and North Africa if high fertilizer prices prevail this year.

    Longer term, the picture is complex. Climate change causing extreme weather is already damaging the food system, according to Alexander, a senior lecturer at Edinburgh University’s Global Academy of Agriculture and Food Systems. But how this could develop is unclear, he told CNBC: “The impact of future extreme weather … drought, heat, flooding, is really not well understood.”

    A key risk is if grain production halts in a number of places at once, Alexander added, known as “multiple breadbasket failure.”

    “There’s definitely the possibility that we could see that type of event in the future, which could have really negative consequences for lots of people,” he added.

    In late February, British supermarkets limited customer purchases of certain fresh fruits and vegetables due to shortages.

    Matthew Horwood | Getty Images News | Getty Images

    Factors affecting the price and availability of commodities and food overall are many and varied — bad weather in Morocco and Spain was blamed for a shortage of fruit and vegetables in the U.K. in February, but additional paperwork due to Brexit was also cited, plus high energy prices.

    Ways to prevent food shortages around the world are also not straightforward, with many “competing narratives,” according to Alexander. For example, localizing food chains may not help.

    “The reason why we have a globalized food system, and the reason why food has become cheaper and cheaper over the last decades, is because … competitive advantage [means] we produce food where it’s the easiest to produce it, where it has the lowest inputs … If we start bringing everything back more locally, it actually is less efficient as a food system,” he said.

    “For example, in the U.K., we are self-sufficient in wheat, but we are still subject to the global market for wheat prices,” he added.

    Also, higher food prices aren’t necessarily a bad thing, according to Alexander. “Rather than try to maintain artificially low food prices, or food prices that don’t reflect all the costs … maybe we can make the healthier, more sustainable foods, we can subsidize them for everybody,” he suggested.

    Reducing meat consumption in developed countries might also be an option. “We need a more equitable and more efficient food system, which does very likely involve dietary change from a Western perspective,” Alexander added.

    Another debate is over how much grain should be used for biofuels versus food supplies. In biofuel, grain is used to produce ethanol, which is blended with gasoline to cut down emissions.

    Reducing the grain used to produce ethanol by 50% in the U.S. and Europe “would compensate for all the lost exports of Ukrainian wheat, corn, barley and rye,” according to the research company World Resources Institute in a post published on April 1 2022, about five weeks after Russia invaded Ukraine.

    “We still have large amounts of grain around the world that is not used for food … in our industrial processes, ethanol, biodiesel, those types of products. I expect we’ll see more of that debate in the coming couple of years,” Whitelaw said.

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  • Biden, Macron ready to talk Ukraine, trade in state visit

    Biden, Macron ready to talk Ukraine, trade in state visit

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    WASHINGTON (AP) — French President Emmanuel Macron arrived in Washington on Tuesday for the first state visit of Joe Biden’s presidency — a revival of diplomatic pageantry that had been put on hold because of the COVID-19 pandemic.

    The Biden-Macron relationship had a choppy start. Macron briefly recalled France’s ambassador to the United States last year after the White House announced a deal to sell nuclear submarines to Australia, undermining a contract for France to sell diesel-powered submarines.

    But the relationship has turned around with Macron emerging as one of Biden’s most forward-facing European allies in the Western response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This week’s visit — it will include Oval Office talks, a glitzy dinner, a news conference and more — comes at a critical moment for both leaders.

    The leaders have a long agenda for their Thursday meeting at the White House, including Iran’s nuclear program, China’s increasing assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific and growing concerns about security and stability in Africa’s Sahel region, according to U.S. and French officials. But front and center during their Oval Office meeting will be Russia’s war in Ukraine, as both Biden and Macron work to maintain economic and military support for Kyiv as it tries to repel Russian forces.

    The visit also comes as both Washington and Paris are keeping an eye on China after protests broke out last weekend in several mainland cities and Hong Kong over Beijing’s “zero COVID” strategy. At a red carpet arrival ceremony after landing in Washington on Tuesday evening, Macron ignored a shouted question from a reporter about whether he and Biden planned to discuss the China protests — the biggest show of public dissent in China in decades.

    In Washington, Republicans are set to take control of the House, where GOP leader Kevin McCarthy on Tuesday following a meeting with Biden and fellow congressional leaders again vowed that Republicans will not write a “blank check” for Ukraine. Across the Atlantic, Macron’s efforts to keep Europe united will be tested by the mounting costs of supporting Ukraine in the nine-month war and as Europe battles rising energy prices that threaten to derail the post-pandemic economic recovery.

    White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby on Monday described Macron as the “dynamic leader” of America’s oldest ally while explaining Biden’s decision to honor the French president with the first state visit of his presidency.

    The U.S. tradition of honoring foreign heads of state dates back to Ulysses S. Grant, who hosted King David Kalakaua of the Kingdom of Hawaii for a more than 20-course White House dinner, but the tradition has been on hold since 2019 because of COVID-19 concerns.

    “If you look at what’s going on in Ukraine, look at what’s going on in the Indo Pacific and the tensions with China, France is really at the center of all those things,” Kirby said. “And so the president felt that this was exactly the right and the most appropriate country to start with for state visits.”

    Macron was also Republican Donald Trump’s pick as the first foreign leader to be honored with a state visit during his term. The 2018 state visit included a jaunt by the two leaders to Mount Vernon, the Virginia estate of George Washington, America’s founding president.

    French government spokesperson Olivier Veran said Tuesday that Macron’s second state visit is “a strong symbol of the partnership between France and the United States.” It shows “very strong ties” between the countries and comes at a moment where the world is faced with important international issues, including the war in Ukraine, food security, climate and energy, he said.

    Veran added that there is a need for “re-synchronizing” the agendas of the European Union and the United States to face crises, especially on energy and rising prices.

    Macron has a packed day of meetings and appearances in and around Washington on Wednesday — including a visit to NASA headquarters with Vice President Kamala Harris and talks with Biden administration officials on nuclear energy.

    On Thursday, Macron will have his private meeting with Biden followed by a joint news conference and visits to the State Department and Capitol Hill before Macron and his wife, Brigitte Macron, are feted at the state dinner. Grammy winner Jon Batiste is to provide the entertainment. The White House prepared for days for Macron’s arrival, setting up a large tent for the festivities on the South Lawn and decorating light poles bordering the White House complex with French flags.

    Macron will head to New Orleans on Friday, where he is to announce plans to expand programming to support French language education in U.S. schools, according to French officials.

    For all of that, there are still areas of tension in the U.S.-French relationship.

    Biden has steered clear of embracing Macron’s calls on Ukraine to resume peace talks with Russia, something Biden has repeatedly said is a decision solely in the hands of Ukraine’s leadership.

    Perhaps more pressing are differences that French and other European Union leaders have raised about Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act, sweeping legislation passed in August that includes historic spending on climate and energy initiatives. Macron and other leaders have been rankled by a provision in the bill that provides tax credits to consumers who buy electric vehicles manufactured in North America.

    The French president, in making his case against the subsidies, will underscore that it’s crucial for “Europe, like the U.S., to come out stronger … not weaker” as the world emerges from the tumult of the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to a senior French government official who briefed reporters on the condition of anonymity to preview private talks.

    Macron earlier this month said the subsidies could upend the “level playing field” on trade with the EU and called aspects of the Biden legislation “unfriendly.”

    The White House, meanwhile, plans to counter that the legislation goes a long way in helping the U.S. meet global efforts to curb climate change. The president and aides will also impress on the French that the legislation will also create new opportunities for French companies and others in Europe, according to a senior Biden administration official who briefed reporters on the condition of anonymity to preview the talks.

    Macron’s visit comes about 14 months after the relationship hit its nadir after the U.S. announced its deal to sell nuclear submarines to Australia.

    After the announcement of the deal, which had been negotiated in secret, France briefly recalled its ambassador to Washington. A few weeks later Macron met Biden in Rome ahead of the Group of 20 summit, where the U.S. president sought to patch things up by acknowledging his administration had been “clumsy” in how it handled the issue.

    Macron’s visit with Harris to NASA headquarters on Wednesday will offer the two countries a chance to spotlight their cooperation on space.

    France in June signed the Artemis Accords, a blueprint for space cooperation supporting NASA’s plans to return humans to the moon by 2024 and to launch a historic human mission to Mars.

    The same month, the U.S. joined a French initiative to develop new tools for adapting to climate change, the Space for Climate Observatory.

    ___

    Corbet reported from Paris. Associated Press writers Colleen Long and Darlene Superville in Washington contributed reporting.

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  • Russia-Ukraine grain deal extended in win for food prices

    Russia-Ukraine grain deal extended in win for food prices

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    ANKARA, Turkey (AP) — A wartime agreement that unblocked grain shipments from Ukraine and helped temper rising global food prices will be extended by four months, the United Nations and other parties to the deal said Thursday, preventing a price shock to some of the world’s most vulnerable countries where many are struggling with hunger.

    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called the 120-day extension a “key decision in the global fight against the food crisis.” Struck during Russia’s war in Ukraine, the initiative established a safe shipping corridor in the Black Sea and inspection procedures to address concerns that cargo vessels might carry weapons or launch attacks.

    The deal that Ukraine and Russia signed in separate agreements with the U.N. and Turkey on July 22 was due to expire Saturday. Russia confirmed the extension but said it expected progress on removing obstacles to the export of Russian food and fertilizers.

    Ukraine and Russia are key global suppliers of wheat, barley, sunflower oil and other food to countries in Africa, the Middle East and parts of Asia where millions of impoverished people lack enough to eat. Russia was also the world’s top exporter of fertilizer before the war. A loss of those supplies following Russia’s Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine had pushed up global food prices and fueled concerns of a hunger crisis in poorer countries.

    While the extension prevents a price shock in developing nations that spend far more on food and energy than richer countries, threats persist from droughts in places like Somalia and the weakening of currencies around the world, which makes buying imported grain more expensive.

    “I was deeply moved to know that in Istanbul, Turkey, Ukraine, Russia and the U.N. had come to an agreement for the rollover of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, allowing for the free exports of Ukrainian grains,” U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said.

    The Turkish Defense Ministry said the decision to extend the deal came after two days of talks in Istanbul between delegations from Turkey, Russia, Ukraine and the U.N. that were held in a “positive and constructive” atmosphere.

    Russia had voiced dissatisfaction with the deal facilitating exports of Russian grain and fertilizer, hinting that it might not approve an extension and even briefly suspending its part of the deal late last month. It cited risks to its ships following what it alleged was a Ukrainian drone attack on Russia’s Black Sea Fleet.

    Although Western sanctions against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine did not target food exports, many shipping and insurance companies were reluctant to deal with Moscow, either refusing to do so or greatly increasing the price.

    Guterres said the U.N. was “fully committed” to removing hurdles to shipping food and fertilizer from Russia.

    The United Nations has been working to overcome issues related to insurance, access to ports, financial transactions and shipping for Russian vessels, according to a U.N. official who was not authorize to speak publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity. The official said the insurance issue has mainly been resolved in recent days.

    Russia has offered to donate 260,000 metric tons of fertilizer stored in European ports to farmers in the developing world who have been priced out of the fertilizer market because of shortages, and the official said the first ship is slated to leave the Netherlands on Monday for Mozambique, where the fertilizer will go by land to Malawi. Further shipments are expected from Belgium and Estonia, the official said.

    The Russian Foreign Ministry said Moscow had allowed the extension to take effect “without any changes in terms and scope.” It said Russia noted the “intensification” of U.N. efforts to hasten Russian exports.

    “All these issues must be resolved within 120 days for which the ‘package deal’ is extended,” the ministry said.

    During talks on the extension, the sides discussed possible additional measures to “deliver more grain to those in real need,” the ministry added, apparently to address Russian complaints that most of the grain has ended up in richer nations.

    Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan suggested Thursday that wheat from Russia could be turned into flour in Turkey and shipped to African nations in need.

    U.N. humanitarian chief Martin Griffiths said last month that 23% of the exports from Ukraine under the grain deal have gone to lower- or lower-middle-income countries and 49% of all wheat shipments have gone to such nations.

    Markets were pleasantly surprised by the extension, said Ian Mitchell, co-director of the Europe program at the Center for Global Development who specializes in agriculture and food security. Following the announcement, wheat futures prices dropped 2.6% in Chicago.

    “Ukraine and Russia are such important grain exporters that the rest of the market can’t fully substitute for the complete absence of Ukrainian grain,” he said. “So that deal is going to matter to food prices significantly, even if the volumes are not what they were before the invasion.”

    He said, however, that uncertainty is “unhelpful in this deal.” Toward the end of the four-month extension, markets will “price in the risk that it wasn’t extended, and prices will rise a little bit again.”

    Arnaud Petit, executive director of the International Grains Council, said the Black Sea region produces some of the world’s cheapest wheat and securing those supplies prevents a price shock to developing nations.

    There have been good harvests in the region, contributing to an expected 10 million more tons of wheat worldwide compared with last year, he said. The extension means that Ukrainian farmers can plan to plant.

    Petit called the extension a building block in “an unstable region where things can change on a daily basis.”

    However, when it comes to food prices, trade movement isn’t as important as currencies around the world weakening against a strong U.S. dollar, which commodities like wheat and other grain are priced in, Petit said.

    The council calculated that for Ghana, which mainly imports its wheat from Canada, the price of wheat in dollars from Canada has been largely stable for two years. But changing into local currency translated to a 70% price hike.

    Global food prices declined about 15% from their March peak after the grain initiative was adopted in July.

    “With the delivery of more than 11 million tons of grains and foodstuffs to those in need via approximately 500 ships over the past four months, the significance and benefits of this agreement for the food supply and security of the world have become evident,” Turkey’s Erdogan said.

    ___

    Bonnell reported from London. Associated Press writers Jamey Keaten in Geneva and Edith M. Lederer at the United Nations contributed.

    ___

    Follow AP’s coverage of the food crisis at https://apnews.com/hub/food-crisis and war in Ukraine at https://apnews.com/hub/russia-ukraine

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  • Computer chip ban signals new era as Biden and Xi meet

    Computer chip ban signals new era as Biden and Xi meet

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    WASHINGTON (AP) — The Biden administration’s move to block exports of advanced computer chips to China is signaling a new phase in relations between the globe’s two largest economies — one in which trade matters less than an increasingly heated competition to be the world’s leading technological and military power.

    The aggressive move, announced last month, will help set the tone for President Joe Biden’s upcoming meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Monday on the sidelines of the Group of 20 summit in Asia. It’s evidence of Biden’s determination to “manage” the U.S. competition with China, whose officials were quick to condemn the export ban.

    After more than two decades in which the focus was on expansion of trade and global growth, both countries are openly prioritizing their national interests as the world economy struggles with high inflation and the risk of recessions. The U.S. and China have each identified the development and production of computer chips as vital for economic growth and their own security interests.

    “We’re going to do whatever it takes to protect Americans from the threat of China,” Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said in an interview. “China is crystal clear. They will use this technology for surveillance. They will use this technology for cyber attacks. They will use this technology to, in any number of ways, harm us and our allies, or our ability to protect ourselves.”

    Xi responded to the export ban in his statement at last month’s congress of the Chinese Communist Party, where he secured a third term as the country’s leader. He pledged that China would move more aggressively to become self-reliant in producing semiconductors and other technologies.

    “In order to enhance China’s innovation capacity, we will move faster to launch a number of major national projects that are of strategic, big-picture and long-term importance,” Xi said.

    The Chinese government has named the development of advanced computer chips that could handle everything from artificial intelligence to hypersonic missiles as one of its top priorities. To bridge the gap until it can get there, China has been relying on imports of advanced chips and manufacturing equipment from the U.S., which imposed a series of export controls last month that block sending to China the world’s most advanced chips, factory equipment and industry experts tied to America.

    The U.S. and its allies famously deployed export controls against Russia after the February invasion of Ukraine, making it harder for Russian forces to be resupplied with weapons, ammunition, tanks and aircraft. As a result of those constraints, Russia has relied on drones from Iran and the U.S. has accused North Korea of supplying them with artillery.

    The U.S. had until recently operated from the premise that strong trade relationships would bring countries closer together in ways that made the world safer and wealthier, a post-Cold War order. Global supply chains were supposed to lower costs, boost profits and enable democratic values to seep into the terrain of oligarchies, dictatorships and autocracies.

    But after a global pandemic, the war in Ukraine and China’s own ambitions, the Biden administration and many European and Asian allies have chosen to prioritize national security and industrial strategies. Both the U.S. and European Union have provided tens of billions of dollars in incentives to spur more domestic production of computer chips.

    In a speech last month at IBM, Biden said China specifically lobbied against a law that provides $52 billion to produce and develop advanced semiconductors in the U.S., an incentive package that has been followed by a string of announcements by Intel, Micron, Wolfspeed and others about the construction of computer chip plants in the U.S..

    He said that some of the GOP lawmakers who opposed the measure had bought into the arguments made by China.

    “The Communist Party of China was lobbying in the United States Congress against passing this legislation,” Biden said. “And unfortunately, some of our friends on the other team bought it.”

    Donald Trump had fiery rhetoric on China during his presidency, imposing tariffs that the Biden administration has yet to lift. But by any qualitative measure, the export bans on computer chips are much tougher than anything imposed by Trump, said Gregory Allen, a senior fellow in the strategic technologies program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

    Allen said the Trump-era tariffs were large in terms of dollars, but they had almost no affect on the balance of trade. Nor were the import taxes strategic. The export controls imposed by the Biden administration would be a setback for Chinese technology that is already decades behind the U.S.

    “We have essentially committed ourselves to saying: China you will not achieve your number one goal,” Allen said.

    The era of China, Russia and other competitors having relatively unfettered access to U.S. and European markets appears to be ending, said Christopher Miller, a Tufts University professor and author of the book, “Chip Wars.”

    “The risks posed by these countries has grown, so Western leaders have reconsidered the wisdom of giving adversaries open access to their markets,” Miller said.

    Instead of trying to work together as a single global economy, new alliances are being formed such as the Quad (Australia, India, Japan and the U.S.) and existing partnerships such as NATO are being expanded. Economic integration among these partners has become essential, as the U.S. export controls on advanced chips need support from other producers in Japan and the Netherlands.

    “All the great powers are restructuring international economic relations in ways they hope will improve their geopolitical position,” Miller said. “Semiconductors are just one of many arenas in which trade, tech, and capital flows are being re-politicized due to great power rivalry.”

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  • South Korean chipmaker SK Hynix worries about China future

    South Korean chipmaker SK Hynix worries about China future

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    SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — South Korean computer chipmaker SK Hynix said Wednesday it might be forced to sell its manufacturing operations in China if a U.S. crackdown on exports of semiconductor technology and manufacturing equipment to China intensifies.

    SK Hynix’s chief marketing officer, Kevin Noh, raised those concerns during a conference call on Wednesday after the company reported its operating profit dropped 60% in the last quarter from 2021, a decline it blamed on a deteriorating business environment.

    Global inflation amplified by Russia’s war on Ukraine and rising interest rates imposed by central banks to counter surging prices have slowed consumer spending on the kinds of high-tech products requiring computer chips. SK Hynix and other semiconductor makers are also navigating new U.S. restrictions on exports of advanced semiconductors and chipmaking equipment to China. Such limits were in part imposed to prevent use of American advanced technology in China’s military development.

    SK Hynix said this month that the U.S. Department of Commerce granted the company a one-year exemption from such requirements, allowing it to provide equipment and other supplies to its Chinese factories making memory chips.

    Other major chip and chip-manufacturing equipment makers like Samsung and Taiwan’s TSMC are thought to have also gotten exemptions.

    SK Hynix may find it difficult to equip its manufacturing line in the eastern Chinese city of Wuxi with the most advanced chipmaking machines, including extreme ultraviolent lithography (EUV) systems, Noh said. He said SK Hynix doesn’t expect major disruptions at the plant at least until the late 2020s, but things could quickly turn for the worse if Washington refuses to extend temporary exemptions at some point and begins to fully enforce its export controls.

    “If it becomes a situation where we would have to obtain (U.S.) license on a tool-by-tool basis, that will disrupt the supply of equipment … and we could face difficulties in operating (Chinese) fabrication facilities at a much earlier point than the late 2020s,” Noh said.

    “If we face problems that make it difficult for us to operate our Chinese fabrication facilities including the Wuxi plant, we are considering various scenarios, including selling those fabrication facilities or their equipment or bringing them to South Korea,” Noh said.

    He said those contingency plans would apply to a “very extreme situation,” and the company hopes to avoid such problems and operate as normal.

    Citing an “unprecedented deterioration” in market conditions, SK Hynix said it would cut its investment next year by more than 50% as it anticipates supply will continue to exceed demand for the time being. The country’s operating profit for the three months through September was at 1.65 trillion won ($1.16 billion), compared to 4.17 trillion won ($2.92 billion) during the same period last year. Revenue fell 7% to 10.98 trillion won ($7.7 billion).

    Some experts say that the U.S.-China technology standoff could force SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics, another major South Korean chipmaker, to significantly modify their Chinese operations over the next few years.

    According to market analysis firm TrendForce, SK Hynix’s Wuxi plant accounts for about 13% of the world’s total DRAM production capacity. About 40% of Samsung’s NAND flash chips are reportedly produced from its factory in the Chinese city of Xi’an, accounting for around 10% of global production.

    “The existing (principles) we accepted as common sense, such as finding a certain region where we could produce most efficiently at the cheapest cost and shipping those products globally, are becoming increasingly uncertain as (our) decision making is being influenced by various layers of factors beyond just business,” Noh said.

    Samsung, the world’s largest provider of memory chips, is widely believed to have received a similar exemption from the U.S. restrictions, although the company has not publicly confirmed it. Noh during the call said SK Hynix’s “competitors” have also been granted the U.S. waivers, in a possible reference to Samsung and Taiwan’s TSMC.

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  • Sparkling fish, murky methods: the global aquarium trade

    Sparkling fish, murky methods: the global aquarium trade

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    LES, Indonesia — After diving into the warm sea off the coast of northern Bali, Indonesia, Made Partiana hovers above a bed of coral, holding his breath and scanning for flashes of color and movement. Hours later, exhausted, he returns to a rocky beach, towing plastic bags filled with his darting, exquisite quarry: tropical fish of all shades and shapes.

    Millions of saltwater fish like these are caught in Indonesia and other countries every year to fill ever more elaborate aquariums in living rooms, waiting rooms and restaurants around the world with vivid, otherworldly life.

    “It’s just so much fun to just watch the antics between different varieties of fish,” said Jack Siravo, a Rhode Island fish enthusiast who began building aquariums after an accident paralyzed him and now has four saltwater tanks. He calls the fish “an endless source of fascination.”

    But the long journey from places like Bali to places like Rhode Island is perilous for the fish and for the reefs they come from. Some are captured using squirts of cyanide to stun them. Many die along the way.

    And even when they are captured carefully, by people like Partiana, experts say the global demand for these fish is contributing to the degradation of delicate coral ecosystems, especially in major export countries such as Indonesia and the Philippines.

    There have been efforts to reduce some of the most destructive practices, such as cyanide fishing. But the trade is extraordinarily difficult to regulate and track as it stretches from small-scale fishermen in tropical seaside villages through local middlemen, export warehouses, international trade hubs and finally to pet stores in the U.S., China, Europe and elsewhere.

    “There’s no enforcement, no management, no data collection,” said Gayatri Reksodihardjo-Lilley, founder of LINI, a Bali-based nonprofit for the conservation and management of coastal marine resources.

    That leaves enthusiasts like Siravo in the dark.

    “Consumers often don’t know where their fish are coming from, and they don’t know how they are collected,” said Andrew Rhyne, a marine biology professor at Roger Williams University in Rhode Island.

    STUNNED BY CYANIDE

    Most ornamental saltwater fish species are caught in the wild because breeding them in captivity can be expensive, difficult and often impossible. The conditions they need to reproduce are extremely particular and poorly understood, even by scientists and expert breeders who have been trying for years.

    Small-scale collection and export of saltwater aquarium fish began in Sri Lanka in the 1930s and the trade has grown steadily since. Nearly 3 million homes in the U.S. keep saltwater fish as pets, according to a 2021-2022 American Pet Products Association survey. (Freshwater aquariums are far more common because freshwater fish are generally cheaper and easier to breed and care for.) About 7.6 million saltwater fish are imported into the U.S. every year.

    For decades, a common fishing technique has involved cyanide, with dire consequences for fish and marine ecosystems.

    Fishermen crush the blue or white pellets into a bottle filled with water. The diluted cyanide forms a poisonous mixture fishermen squirt onto coral reefs, where fish usually hide in crevices. The fish become temporarily stunned, allowing fishermen to easily pick or scoop them from the coral.

    Many die in transit, weakened by the cyanide – which means even more fish need to be captured to meet demand. The chemicals damage the living coral and make it more difficult for new coral to grow.

    LAX ENFORCEMENT

    Cyanide fishing has been banned in countries such as Indonesia and the Philippines but enforcement of the law remains difficult, and experts say the practice continues.

    Part of the problem is geography, Reksodihardjo-Lilley explains. In the vast archipelago of Indonesia, there are about 34,000 miles (54,720 kilometers) of coastline across some 17,500 islands. That makes monitoring the first step of the tropical fish supply chain a task so gargantuan it is all but ignored.

    “We have been working at the national level, trying to push national government to give attention to ornamental fish in Indonesia, but it’s fallen on deaf ears,” she said.

    Indonesian officials counter that laws do exist that require exporters to meet quality, sustainability, traceability and animal welfare conditions. “We will arrest anyone who implements destructive fishing. There are punishments for it,” said Machmud, an official at Indonesia’s marine affairs and fisheries ministry, who uses only one name.

    “NO REAL RECORD-KEEPING”

    Another obstacle to monitoring and regulating of the trade is the quick pace that the fish can move from one location to another, making it difficult to trace their origins.

    At a fish export warehouse in Denpasar, thousands of fish a day can be delivered to the big industrial-style facility located off a main road in Bali’s largest city. Trucks and motorbikes arrive with white Styrofoam coolers crammed with plastic bags of fish from around the archipelago. The fish are swiftly unpacked, sorted into tanks or new plastic bags and given fresh sea water. Carcasses of ones that died in transit are tossed into a basket or onto the pavement, then later thrown in the trash.

    Some fish will remain in small rectangular tanks in the warehouse for weeks, while others are shipped out quickly in plastic bags in cardboard boxes, fulfilling orders from the U.S., Europe and elsewhere. According to data provided to The Associated Press by Indonesian government officials, the U.S. was the largest importer of saltwater aquarium fish from the country.

    Once the fish make the plane ride halfway around the world from Indonesia to the U.S., they’re checked by the Fish and Wildlife Service, which cross-references the shipment with customs declaration forms.

    But that’s designed to ensure no protected fish, such as the endangered Banggai Cardinal, are being imported. The process cannot determine if the fish were caught legally.

    A U.S. law known as the Lacey Act bans trafficking in fish, wildlife, or plants that were illegally taken, possessed, transported, or sold – according to the laws in the country of origin or sale. That means that any fish caught using cyanide in a country where it’s prohibited would be illegal to import or sell in the U.S.

    But that helps little when it’s impossible to tell how the fish was caught. For example, no test exists to provide accurate results on whether a fish has been caught with cyanide, said Rhyne, the Roger Williams marine biology expert.

    “The reality is that the Lacey Act isn’t used often because generally there’s no real record-keeping or way to enforce it,” said Rhyne.

    LOCAL RESPONSE

    In the absence of rigorous national enforcement, conservation groups and local fishermen have long been working to reduce cyanide fishing in places like Les, a well-known saltwater aquarium fishing town tucked between the mountains and ocean in northern Bali.

    Partiana started catching fish – using cyanide — shortly after elementary school, when his parents could no longer afford to pay for his education. Every catch would help provide a few dollars of income for his family.

    But over the years Partiana began to notice the reef was changing. “I saw the reef dying, turning black,” he said. “You could see there were less fish.”

    He became part of a group of local fishermen who were taught by a local conservation organization how to use nets, care for the reef and patrol the area to guard against cyanide use. He later became a lead trainer for the organization, and has trained more than 200 fellow aquarium fishermen across Indonesia in use of less harmful techniques.

    Reksodihardjo-Lilley says it this type of local education and training that should be expanded to reduce harmful fishing. “People can see that they’re directly benefitting from the reefs being in good health.”

    For Partiana, now the father of two children, it’s not just for his benefit. “I hope that (healthier) coral reefs will make it possible for the next generation of children and grandchildren under me,” He wants them to be able to “see what coral looks like and that there can be ornamental fish in the sea.”

    A world away in Rhode Island, Siravo, the fish enthusiast, shares Partiana’s hopes for a less distructive saltwater aquarium industry.

    “I don’t want fish that are not collected sustainably,” he says. “Because I won’t be able to get fish tomorrow if I buy (unsustainably caught fish) today.”

    ———

    Associated Press video journalist Kathy Young reported from New York. Marshall Ritzel contributed to this report from Rhode Island. Edna Tarigan contributed from Jakarta.

    ———

    Follow Victoria Milko on Twitter: @thevmilko

    ———

    The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Department of Science Education. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

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  • NOT REAL NEWS: A look at what didn’t happen this week

    NOT REAL NEWS: A look at what didn’t happen this week

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    A roundup of some of the most popular but completely untrue stories and visuals of the week. None of these are legit, even though they were shared widely on social media. The Associated Press checked them out. Here are the facts:

    ___

    Ad misleads on treaty regulating global arms trade

    CLAIM: President Joe Biden just announced that he is adding the U.S. as a signatory to the United Nations “Small Arms Treaty,” which would “establish an international gun control registry” in which other countries can “track the ‘end user’ of every rifle, shotgun, and handgun sold in the world.”

    THE FACTS: There is no “U.N. Small Arms Treaty.” A separate U.N. agreement, the Arms Trade Treaty, regulates the international trade of a range of weapons, but does not track domestic gun sales. The false claim about an “international gun control registry” was shared in a Facebook advertisement by a gun rights group stoking fears about threats to the Second Amendment. The group, the “American Firearms Association,” claims in its Facebook ad that Biden “has just announced that he is adding America as a signatory to the U.N. Small Arms Treaty, setting the stage for a full ratification vote in the U.S. Senate.” “The U.N. Small Arms Treaty would establish an international gun control registry, allowing Communist China, European socialists, and 3rd World dictators to track the ‘end user’ of every rifle, shotgun, and handgun sold in the world,” continues the post, which links to a petition asking for users’ contact information. The post calls on supporters of the Second Amendment to oppose the treaty. But there is no treaty called the “U.N. Small Arms Treaty,” and the treaty that is being referenced does not record private gun sales in any country, experts say. The actual treaty, the U.N. Arms Trade Treaty, deals not only with small arms such as rifles and pistols, but battle tanks, armored combat vehicles, large-caliber artillery systems, combat aircraft, attack helicopters, warships and more, the AP has reported. The U.N. in 2013 adopted the treaty to keep weapons from falling into the hands of terrorists and human rights violators. The treaty prohibits countries that ratify it from exporting conventional weapons if they violate arms embargoes, or if they promote acts of genocide, crimes against humanity or war crimes. It does encourage its parties to maintain national records regarding exports of conventional arms and says such records should include the “end user.” But that’s a recommendation about recording exports that a country makes to another country, not gun sales to individuals within a country, said Jennifer Erickson, an associate professor of political science and international studies at Boston College. Experts note that the treaty was written to explicitly make clear it has no bearing on domestic gun rights or sales. The treaty’s preamble, for example, states that the agreement is “Reaffirming the sovereign right of any State to regulate and control conventional arms exclusively within its territory, pursuant to its own legal or constitutional system.” The U.N. has “no gun control registry in terms of private ownership, whatsoever,” Erickson said. Erickson said the U.S. government already uses “end-use” monitoring by recording where it sends weapons. “There is only in the Arms Trade Treaty a focus on cross-border transfers, so not domestic sales or ownership,” said Rachel Stohl, vice president of research programs at the Stimson Center, a nonpartisan think tank focused on international security. “It’s really looking at sales between governments. And it applies to the entire range of conventional weapons, not just small arms and light weapons.” The U.S. signed the treaty in 2013, though the Senate never ratified it — which means the country is a signatory of the agreement, but not an official party and bound by it. In 2019, Trump announced that he was revoking the country’s status as a signatory, though that move was symbolic. The U.N. still lists the U.S. as a signatory to the treaty, though in a footnote online it acknowledges that, in a July 2019 communication, the U.S. said it did not intend to become a party to the treaty and that it has no legal obligations in relation to it. Contrary to the ad’s claim, Biden has not yet taken any action to reverse the U.S.’s public position on the treaty, Stohl said. An inquiry to one of the directors of the American Firearms Association was not immediately returned.

    — Associated Press writer Angelo Fichera in Philadelphia contributed this report.

    Baseless claims about safety of mRNA vaccines circulate online

    CLAIM: Humans and other mammals injected with an mRNA vaccine die within five years.

    THE FACTS: There is no scientific evidence to suggest humans or other mammals given an mRNA vaccine die within five years, experts told the AP. Social media users are reviving concerns that mRNA-based vaccines, including those that are used to combat COVID-19, are extremely deadly. “No mammal injected with mRNA has ever survived longer than 5 years. The die-off has begun,” one user on Twitter wrote in a post that’s been liked or shared more than 17,000 times. But there’s no scientific proof that the mRNA vaccination shortens life expectancy or has led to mass die offs in humans or other mammals since research began on them decades ago, experts told the AP “Nothing of the scale suggested has happened,” Dr. Daniel Kuritzkes, chief of infectious diseases at Brigham and Women’s Hospital in Boston, told the AP. “The vast majority of the millions who have been injected are doing just fine.” Vaccines utilizing messenger RNA, or mRNA, teach cells how to make a protein that will trigger an immune response that protects a person from becoming seriously ill from a disease, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The molecule was first discovered in the early 1960s and research into its uses in medical treatment progressed into the 1970s and 1980s, according to Johns Hopkins University’s School of Public Health. A flu vaccine based on mRNA was tested on mice in the 1990s, but the first vaccines for rabies and influenza weren’t tested on humans until recently. Kuritzkes said no deaths from those vaccines were reported in those trials. Meanwhile, hundreds of millions of people worldwide have been inoculated against COVID-19 in the last couple of years and reports of death after vaccination remain rare. Healthcare providers are required to report any death after a COVID-19 shot to the federal government’s Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS), even if it’s unclear whether the vaccine was the cause. More than 600 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines have been administered in the U.S. from December 2020 through last week, according to the CDC. During that time, there have been more than 16,500 preliminary reports of death, or 0.0027% of those that have received a COVID-19 vaccine. Of those, the CDC has identified just nine deaths causally associated with rare blood clots caused by the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, which is not mRNA based like those produced by Pfizer and Moderna. Kuritzkes also notes that mRNA only lasts in the body for a short period of time before rapidly degrading, making it unlikely that it would cause long term effects. “The fact that we’re just now getting to the five-year mark for some of the earliest studies is not evidence that people die from the vaccines,” he said. “Just evidence that five years have yet to elapse for many trials. Sort of like saying nobody who voted in the 2020 presidential election has lived more than five years.”

    — Associated Press writer Philip Marcelo in New York contributed this report.

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    Video of traffic at the Finnish-Russian border misrepresented

    CLAIM: Video shows lines of cars waiting at the Russian-Finnish border after Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered a partial mobilization of reservists on Wednesday amid the war in Ukraine.

    THE FACTS: The video was filmed at the Vaalimaa border crossing point between Russia and Finland on Aug. 29, weeks before Putin announced the partial mobilization of Russian reservists to Ukraine. Following Putin’s announcement, social media users misrepresented a video showing traffic at the border crossing point in Finland, about a three hour drive from St. Petersburg, Russia. The original video, which was posted to YouTube and TikTok on Sept. 19, shows a long line of cars at the border crossing point. Social media users then took the clip out of context, falsely claiming that it captured Russians fleeing to Finland. “#Breaking: just in – The traffic jam at the border with#Russia/#Finland has pilled up to 35KM and is rising by the hour, it is the only border who is still open for Russian civilians with shengen visas, after#Putin announced he will send 300.000 new troops to#Ukraine,” a tweet with more than 2.7 million views falsely claimed. Igor Parri, the TikTok user who posted the original video confirmed to The Associated Press in an email that he filmed it on Aug. 29. He sent the AP the original video to verify that he filmed it and noted that the video “was just depicting the quite typical line” at the border. The Finish border authority on Wednesday publicly responded to the claims circulating widely on social media, noting that traffic conditions at the border remained normal. “Situation at Finnish Russian border is normal, both at green border and in border traffic,” Matti Pitkäniitty, a senior official with the Finnish border authority wrote in a statement posted to Twitter. “Just talked to our officers in charge. There is normal queuing in border traffic…” Pitkäniitty then tweeted on Thursday that traffic from Russia was at a “higher level than usual,” but was comparable to weekend traffic. In a statement to reporters on Thursday, Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin said that the country was considering ways to reduce Russian transit to Finland, after Putin’s announcement. Putin’s announcement on Wednesday sparked anti-war demonstrations across the country that resulted in almost 1,200 arrests, the AP reported. Some Russians rushed to buy plane tickets to flee the country.

    ___

    Florida ranks 48th in teacher pay, not 9th

    CLAIM: When the Republican Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis took office, Florida ranked 26th in the nation for teacher pay. Today the state ranks 9th in teacher pay.

    THE FACTS: Florida most recently ranked 48th in the nation in average public school teacher pay and was ranked 47th when DeSantis took office, according to the National Education Association, which compiles the data annually. The Florida Republican Party misled social media users this month when it posted on its verified Twitter and Facebook accounts that the state was among the best in the nation for teacher pay. “When Governor DeSantis took office Florida ranked 26th in the nation for teacher pay, today we are 9th,” the party wrote. “Every year he fights to ensure Florida teachers get the support and funding they need.” However, national salary data contradicts those numbers. The National Center for Education Statistics and several other online sources for such data get their salary information from the NEA, the nation’s largest teacher’s union, which compiles most of its data from state education departments. NEA data shows that in the 2018-2019 school year, when DeSantis entered office, Florida ranked 47th in the nation for average public school teacher pay, giving teachers an average annual salary of $48,314. It ranked 48th in the 2020-2021 school year, giving teachers an average of $51,009. The state is estimated to continue to rank 48th for the 2021-2022 school year, according to Staci Maiers, an NEA spokesperson. The governor’s press office in a news release in March touted the 9th-in-the-nation ranking, but referred to starting salary, rather than average teacher salary. “In 2020, the average starting salary for a teacher in Florida was $40,000 (26th in the nation), and with today’s funding, it will now be at least $47,000 (9th in the nation),” the release said. Those numbers also aren’t an exact match for the NEA’s data, which show that in the 2019-2020 school year, Florida ranked 29th in the nation for average public school teacher starting salary, according to Maiers. Estimates for the 2020-2021 school year show Florida ranking 16th in the nation on this benchmark. And based on the data from that school year, which is the most recent data available, a $47,000 starting salary would place Florida at 11th in the nation, not 9th. Cassandra Palelis, press secretary for the Florida Department of Education, explained that the press release from March featured previous data from the NEA, which was later updated. She said Florida’s estimated starting salary for the 2022-2023 school year is more than $48,000 per year, which would rank 9th in the nation according to NEA data. The Florida Republican Party didn’t respond to emailed requests for comment.

    — Associated Press writer Ali Swenson in New York contributed this report.

    ___

    Find AP Fact Checks here: https://apnews.com/APFactCheck

    ___

    Follow @APFactCheck on Twitter: https://twitter.com/APFactCheck

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  • Russia smuggling Ukrainian grain to help pay for Putin’s war

    Russia smuggling Ukrainian grain to help pay for Putin’s war

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    By MICHAEL BIESECKER, SARAH EL DEEB and BEATRICE DUPUY

    October 3, 2022 GMT

    BEIRUT (AP) — When the bulk cargo ship Laodicea docked in Lebanon last summer, Ukrainian diplomats said the vessel was carrying grain stolen by Russia and urged Lebanese officials to impound the ship.

    Moscow called the allegation “false and baseless,” and Lebanon’s prosecutor general sided with the Kremlin and declared that the 10,000 tons of barley and wheat flour wasn’t stolen and allowed the ship to unload.

    But an investigation by The Associated Press and the PBS series “Frontline” has found the Laodicea, owned by Syria, is part of a sophisticated Russian-run smuggling operation that has used falsified manifests and seaborne subterfuge to steal Ukrainian grain worth at least $530 million — cash that has helped feed President Vladimir Putin’s war machine.

    AP used satellite imagery and marine radio transponder data to track three dozen ships making more than 50 voyages carrying grain from Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine to ports in Turkey, Syria, Lebanon and other countries. Reporters reviewed shipping manifests, searched social media posts, and interviewed farmers, shippers and corporate officials to uncover the details of the massive smuggling operation.

    ___

    This story is part of an AP/FRONTLINE investigation that includes the War Crimes Watch Ukraine interactive experience and and upcoming documentary, “Putin’s Attack on Ukraine: Documenting War Crimes,” which premieres 10/9c Oct. 25 on PBS.

    ___

    The ongoing theft, which legal experts say is a potential war crime, is being carried out by wealthy businessmen and state-owned companies in Russia and Syria, some of them already facing financial sanctions from the United States and European Union.

    Meanwhile, the Russian military has attacked farms, grain silos and shipping facilities still under Ukrainian control with artillery and air strikes, destroying food, driving up prices and reducing the flow of grain from a country long known as the breadbasket of Europe.

    The Russians “have an absolute obligation to ensure that civilians are cared for and to not deprive them their ability of a livelihood and an ability to feed themselves,” said David Crane, a veteran prosecutor who has been involved in numerous international war crime investigations. “It’s just pure pillaging and looting, and that is also an actionable offense under international military law.”

    The grain and flour carried by the 138-meter-long (453 feet) Laodicea likely started its journey in the southern Ukrainian city of Melitopol, which Russia seized in the early days of the war.

    Video posted to social media on July 9 shows a train pulling up to the Melitopol Elevator, a massive grain storage facility, with green hopper cars marked with the name of the Russian company Agro-Fregat LLC in big yellow letters, along with a logo in the shape of a spike of wheat.

    Russian occupation official Andrey Siguta held a news conference at the depot the following week where he said the grain would “provide food security” for Russia-controlled regions in Ukraine, and that his administration would “evaluate the harvest and determine how much will be for sale.”

    As he spoke, a masked soldier armed with an assault rifle stood guard as trucks unloaded wheat at the facility to be milled. Workers loaded flour into large white bags like those delivered by the Laodicea to Lebanon three weeks later.

    Siguta, along with four other top Russian occupation officials, was sanctioned by the U.S. government on Sept. 15 for overseeing the theft and export of Ukranian grain.

    Putin signed treaties Friday to annex four occupied regions of Ukraine into the Russian Federation, in defiance of international law. The United States and European Union immediately rejected “the illegal annexation.”

    Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov told AP the occupiers are moving vast quantities of grain from the region by train and truck to ports in Russia and Crimea, a strategic Ukrainian peninsula that Russia has occupied since 2014. Despite Russian claims to have annexed Crimea, the United Nations ruled that land grab was also illegal.

    Videos posted on social media in recent months show a steady stream of grain transport trucks moving south through occupied areas of Ukraine with the letter “Z” painted on their sides, a wartime symbol for Russia and its military forces. Agro-Fregat train cars have been recorded rolling through the Crimean port town of Feodosia, where satellite imagery shows trucks and trains lined up as grain was being loaded onto ships.

    The Kremlin has denied stealing any grain, but Russia’s state-run news agency Tass reported on June 16 that Ukrainian grain was being trucked to Crimea, resulting in long lines at border checkpoints. Tass later reported that grain from Melitopol had arrived in Crimea and that additional shipments were expected, bound for customers in the Middle East and Africa.

    A July 11 satellite image shows the Laodicea tied up at a pier in Feodosia. The ship’s radio transponder was turned off and its cargo holds were open, being filled with a white substance from waiting trucks. Two weeks later, when it arrived at the Lebanese port city Tripoli, it claimed to be carrying grain from a small Russian port on the other side of the Black Sea.

    Full Coverage: AP Investigations

    A copy of the ship’s manifests obtained by AP claimed its port of origin was Kavkaz, Russia. Its cargo was listed as nearly 10,000 metric tons of “Russian Barley and Russian Flour in Bags.” The shipper was listed as Agro-Fregat and the buyer was Loyal Agro Co Ltd., a wholesale grocer headquartered in Turkey.

    Agro-Fregat didn’t respond to emailed questions and soon after AP’s inquiry, the company’s website appears to have been taken down. A phone number that had been listed on the website was out of service last week.

    A spokesman for Loyal Agro said the company took delivery of 5,000 tons of flour and the rest of the ship’s cargo went to Tartus, Syria.

    “We reached an agreement with Russia, the flour came from Russia,” said Muhammed Cuma, a spokesman for the company. “If the flour was stolen, then the Lebanese authorities would not have allowed it (to be imported).”

    But the Laodicea couldn’t have picked up its cargo in Kavkaz, the Russian port listed on the manifest. The ship’s hull, which reaches 8 meters (26 feet) below the surface, would run aground in the relatively shallow port, which according to Russia’s transport regulator can only accommodate ships with a maximum depth of 5.3 meters (17.5 feet).

    The port in Feodosia is more than twice as deep — easily able to accommodate the big ship.

    The Laodicea is one of three bulk cargo vessels operated by Syriamar Shipping Ltd., a Syrian government-run company under U.S. sanctions since 2015 for its ties to the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

    AP tracked 10 voyages made by the Laodicea and her sister ships — Souria and Finikia — from the Ukrainian coast to ports in Turkey, Syria and Lebanon.

    Syriamar didn’t respond to emails to its headquarters in Latakia, Syria. A call to the phone number on the company’s website went unanswered.

    ___

    Another company involved in smuggling grain is United Shipbuilding Corp., a Russian state-owned defense contractor that builds warships and submarines for Russia’s navy. In April, the company and its senior executives were sanctioned by the United States for providing weapons to the Russian war effort.

    The company, through its subsidiary Crane Marine Contractor, bought three cargo ships just weeks before Putin invaded Ukraine, in a departure from its core business providing heavy lift platforms to the oil and gas industry.

    The three ships have made at least 17 trips between Crimea and ports in Turkey and Syria.

    A spokeswoman for United Shipbuilding Corp. in Moscow didn’t respond to questions sent via email. When AP called Crane Marine Contractor a receptionist answered by saying the company’s name. A man she transferred the call to, however, insisted AP had the wrong number.

    “You have reached the wrong place, we do not have such information,” said the man, who refused to give his name. “I have no clue what you are talking about and no clue who I can connect you with, do you understand?”

    During a typical voyage in mid-June, a 170-meter-long ship (560 feet) called the Mikhail Nenashev was captured on satellite being loaded at the Russian-controlled Avlita Grain Terminal in Sevastopol, Crimea, while its radio transponder was turned off. The ship’s crew turned the signal back on two days later while underway in the Black Sea.

    It turned south toward the Mediterranean and arrived on June 25 in Dörtyol, Turkey where exclusive video obtained by AP shows it two days later at a pier owned by MMK Metalurji, a steel producer. Cranes at the dock can be seen scooping up large bucket loads of grain and dropping it into waiting trucks that drive away.

    MMK Metalurji is the Turkish subsidiary of Magnitogorsk Iron & Steel Works, a major Russian steel conglomerate controlled by Viktor Rashnikov, a Russian billionaire who is close to Putin. Rashnikov and his company have been sanctioned by the United States, European Union and United Kingdom for providing revenue and equipment in support of Russia’s war effort.

    In an email to AP, the company said the grain came from Russia: “The place where the said cargo is loaded is PORT KAVKAZ … according to the customs declaration and the written declaration made by the shipping agency to us.”

    As with Laodicea, Nenashev’s draught is too deep to dock at the Kavkaz port.

    Ami Daniel, CEO of the marine data analytics company Windward, said ships running dark is a red flag that illegal activity is occurring. He said it is also common for smugglers to falsify shipping manifests and customs declarations to hide the true origin of their cargo.

    “Illegally falsifying documentation is a tactic used by bad actors to disguise the origin of the goods they are transporting, be it for the purpose of evading sanctions, trafficking illicit goods, or other crimes,” said Daniel, a former Israeli naval officer.

    Rashnikov, who has a personal fortune estimated at more than $10 billion, appears to have anticipated the sanctions.

    Days before Russia launched its February invasion, his 140-meter-long superyacht (460 feet), the Ocean Victory, cruised from Dubai to the Maldives, a remote archipelago in the Indian Ocean where the government hasn’t enforced Western sanctions. Ocean Victory’s crew turned off its radio transponder on March 1, and the $300 million party barge has been running dark ever since.

    Since the invasion, global grain prices have skyrocketed, boosting profits for Russian smugglers, while triggering what U.N. World Food Program director David Beasley on Sept. 15 called a “tsunami of hunger” affecting at least 345 million people.

    While there is little evidence Ukrainians themselves are under threat of famine, Russia’s war of aggression has starved its economy of export revenue. In 2021, before Russia’s most recent invasion, Ukraine exported $5 billion worth of wheat, corn and vegetable oils — primarily in the Middle East, Africa and Asia.

    The high prices haven’t helped Ukrainian farmers in the occupied regions, who have been forced to sell their harvests to Russian-controlled companies for half of what they would have been paid before the war, according to Fedorov, the Melitopol mayor. If a farmer refuses, he said, the Russians just take the grain anyway, paying nothing.

    “It is a very low price, and our farmers don’t understand what they can do,” said Fedorov, who evacuated to Ukrainian-controlled territory after the invasion but keeps in touch with people back home.

    Ukrainian agricultural holding company HarvEast reported that Russians had taken about 200,000 metric tons of grain, which CEO Dmitry Skornyakov said cost his company about $50 million. He said his employees in the occupied Ukrainian city of Mariupol reported the grain was trucked across the border into Russia.

    “To steal it, they just drive to Rostov and Taganrog, small Russian ports, then mix it with the Russian grain and say that that is Russian grain,” Skornyakov said.

    The same appears to be happening at sea.

    Satellite imagery and transponder data shows large cargo ships anchored off the Russian coast rendezvousing with smaller ships shuttling grain from both Crimean and Russian ports, obscuring the true origin of the cargo. Those larger ships then carried the blended grain to Egypt, Libya, Iraq and Saudi Arabia.

    Daniel, the former naval officer whose company tracks ships globally, said ship-to-ship transfers of cargo at sea are rare, and are usually tied to smuggling. “When you’re a sanctioned country, you have a much more limited market,” he said. “So if you don’t blend your cargoes or if you don’t hide your origin, you probably have a much smaller market and therefore much lower price.”

    High demand for grain makes it easy for Russians to find buyers, said Oleg Nivievskyi, assistant professor and vice president for economics education at the Kyiv School of Economics.

    “There will be no problem to sell the stolen grain from Ukraine whatsoever,” he said.

    Yayla Agro, which makes packaged dried goods and ready-to-eat meals regularly stocked on the shelves of Turkish supermarkets, said it bought 8,800 metric tons of corn delivered by the Russian ship Fedor to the Turkish port of Bandirma on June 17. The cargo would be worth about $2.7 million.

    In a statement to AP, Yayla Agro denied it had ever purchased grain from the Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine, and said the bill of lading, certificate of origin and other official documents show the ship had been loaded in the port of Kavkaz.

    “We would like to stress that our company is involved in international trade, abides by ethical rules and considers abiding by international law as an absolute priority,” the company said. “In the same vein, (Yayla Agro) meticulously examines whether its commercial partners are the subject of any international sanction.”

    Satellite imagery from June 12 shows the Fedor was actually loaded in Sevastopol, Crimea.

    AnRussTrans, the Russian company that owns the ship through a subsidiary, didn’t respond to emailed questions. Sergey Dubrov, who answered the phone at the company’s headquarters in Moscow, denied receiving AP’s email and said he would only respond to written questions.

    “I can say one thing,” he added. “The ships exclusively work on legal transportation and do not violate international law.”

    Yayla also confirmed purchasing 7,000 metric tons of corn from another Russian ship, SV. Nikolay, on June 24. Satellite imagery shows the ship had docked at the grain terminal in Sevastopol six days earlier, but the company said its documentation showing the grain had come from Kavkaz.

    As with the other smuggling ships, both the Fedor and SV. Nikolay are too big to dock at Kavkaz.

    ___

    Turkey’s role in the theft of Ukrainian grain is particularly sensitive because the NATO country has tried to play the role of mediator between the two warring countries.

    Turkey helped broker an agreement between Russia and Ukraine in July to allow both countries to export grain and fertilizer through safe corridors in the Black Sea. The deal did not address the grain Russia has taken from occupied areas. In the last two months Ukrainian officials said more than 150 ships carrying grain have departed from ports they still control, including shipments to Somalia and Yemen, war-torn nations currently facing famine.

    Yet there are also indications the Turkish government itself may be a recipient of disputed grain from Ukraine. AP and “Frontline” tracked trips from Crimea to Turkey by the smuggling ships Mikhail Nenashev, Laodicea and Souria to docks with seaside silos operated by the Turkish Grain Board, a government-run entity that imports and exports grain and other agricultural products.

    The board’s press office and executives did not respond to emails with detailed questions about the suspect shipments.

    Though Turkish authorities have pledged to stop illegal smuggling, Turkey’s foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said in a June news conference his country had not found any evidence of theft.

    “We’ve received such claims,” he said. “And such information is coming from the Ukrainian side from time to time. We take every claim seriously and investigate it seriously. … In our investigation on ships’ ports and goods’ origins, following claims about Turkey, we saw the origin records to be Russia.”

    Whatever the records say, the smuggling operation continues.

    Crane Marine Contractor’s ship Matros Koshka — named for a Russian sailor lauded as a national hero for his bravery during the Crimean War of 1854 — cruised north last week into the Black Sea with a listed destination of Kavkaz before turning off its transponder and running dark.

    Satellite imagery taken Thursday showed the 161-meter-long ship (528 feet) had docked once again at the grain terminal in the occupied Ukrainian port of Sevastopol, little more than a mile from a Soviet-era statue honoring its namesake.

    ___

    AP investigative reporters Sarah El Deeb reported from Beirut and Michael Biesecker reported from Washington, and news verification reporter Beatrice Dupuy was in New York. AP reporters Arijeta Lajka in New York, Zoya Shu in Berlin and Ahmad El-Katib in Beirut contributed to this report.

    ___

    Follow Biesecker at twitter.com/mbieseck, El Deeb at twitter.com/seldeeb, and Dupuy at twitter.com/Beatrice_Dupuy

    ___

    Contact AP’s global investigative team at Investigative@ap.org.

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  • The British pound has taken a tumble. What’s the impact?

    The British pound has taken a tumble. What’s the impact?

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    LONDON (AP) — The pound is taking a pounding.

    The British currency has taken a plunge, sliding against the U.S. dollar to touch an all-time low. It’s a sign of the alarm in financial markets over new Prime Minister Liz Truss’ emergency budget measures unveiled last week aimed at jump-starting the ailing economy.

    Investors are spooked by a sweeping package of tax cuts likely to cost tens of billions of pounds in extra government borrowing and amounts to a risky gamble to stave off a looming recession.

    But that’s not all. The currency chaos is playing out against the wider backdrop of the dollar’s rally to a two-decade high.

    Here’s a look at what it all means:

    EVERYDAY IMPACT

    Many Britons are struggling amid soaring inflation driven by rising prices for food and energy, in a cost-of-living crisis that’s been dubbed the worst in a generation.

    The pound’s slump threatens to make it even worse. One of the most visible ways is by feeding into the energy crisis because oil and natural gas is priced in dollars. The impact is being felt at the pump.

    British drivers are paying 5 pounds ($5.45) more on average to fill up their cars since the beginning of the year as the pound has fallen, according to an analysis by motoring association AA. U.K. gas prices would be at least 9 pence per liter cheaper if the pound was still at its mid-February level of $1.35, compared with the now-outdated $1.14 level that the group used last week for its calculation.

    “There’s every chance that a falling pound will make life more expensive,” said Sarah Coles, senior personal finance analyst at financial services firm Hargreaves Lansdown. Anything bought from overseas — components, raw materials, supermarket staples and household basics — will be pricier.

    “These rising costs will feed into higher prices, and push inflation even higher,” Coles said. “For anyone whose budget was already stretched to breaking point, this will mean even more pain at the tills.”

    Finance minister Kwasi Kwarteng hopes that big tax cuts will spur economic growth and generate wealth, but the sliding pound raises the possibility that will be offset if the central bank steps in with bigger-than-expected interest rate increases.

    Some analysts are speculating rates could rise as high as 6% by next spring, a sharp contrast to the near zero level they were at just a few years ago. Rising rates mean many homeowners face bigger monthly mortgage bills, leaving them less to spend on other goods and services.

    HOW LOW CAN IT GO?

    Fifteen years ago, 1 British pound was able to buy $2. Now, the pound is getting closer to parity with the greenback, a once-unthinkable event and a psychologically important milestone. The pound has tumbled more than 5% since the government outlined its economic plans Friday, dropping as low as $1.0373 early Monday, before bouncing back to above $1.06.

    The markets are raising the prospect that the two currencies might soon reach equal footing. A lot of the decline has been driven by the strength of the dollar, which has climbed against a wide range of other currencies as the U.S. Federal Reserve aggressively raises rates, drawing interest from investors fleeing riskier assets.

    The euro, for example, has been on a similar trajectory to the pound, having fallen below parity with the dollar recently and then hitting a fresh 20-year low Monday.

    The pound has dropped more than most, though, because of local factors. Investors are alarmed at Kwarteng’s “lack of focus on fiscal prudence,” which outweighs any optimism about his pro-growth, anti-red tape agenda, said Victoria Scholar, head of investment at interactive investor.

    “On top of being bullish towards the dollar, the international investor community is now also very bearish towards the pound amid fears about the UK’s economic outlook and investment case,” Scholar said.

    TUG OF WAR

    The plummeting pound highlights what analysts are calling a “tug of war” between Britain’s Treasury and the central bank, which has independence from the government to operate free of political influence.

    The Truss government is gambling that slashing taxes and borrowing more to pay for it will kick-start economic growth as a recession looms.

    That puts government officials at odds with the Bank of England, where policymakers are trying to rein in inflation that threatens financial stability by raising interest rates, with seven hikes so far this year and more in the pipeline.

    The central bank said Monday that it wouldn’t hesitate to raise interest rates by as much as needed at its next meeting in November, which did little to soothe markets. An interim meeting to decide on an emergency rate hike could be needed, “though that would risk escalating tensions with the new government,” said Jeremy Lawson, chief economist at asset manager abrdn.

    “There are no good options from here, just less bad ones, with the U.K.’s already struggling household and businesses left to pick up the pieces,” Lawson said.

    IS THERE ANY UPSIDE?

    British exports will be cheaper for buyers paying in dollars. But the economic impact is likely to be limited, given that the United Kingdom runs a trade deficit with the rest of the world by importing more than it exports.

    It’ll be a lot cheaper for foreign visitors, especially Americans. Pub beers, theater tickets for shows in London’s West End, and hotel bills will be more affordable for tourists.

    And for investors and wealthy people, the slumping pound makes it cheaper to buy real estate in Britain, especially in exclusive London neighborhoods that have long been favored by the global superrich.

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  • Inflation, unrest challenge Bangladesh’s ‘miracle economy’

    Inflation, unrest challenge Bangladesh’s ‘miracle economy’

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    DHAKA, Bangladesh (AP) — Standing in line to try to buy food, Rekha Begum is distraught. Like many others in Bangladesh, she is struggling to find affordable daily essentials like rice, lentils and onions.

    “I went to two other places, but they told me they don’t have supplies. Then I came here and stood at the end of the queue,” said Begum, 60, as she waited for nearly two hours to buy what she needed from a truck selling food at subsidized prices in the capital, Dhaka.

    Bangladesh’s economic miracle is under severe strain as fuel price hikes amplify public frustrations over rising costs for food and other necessities. Fierce opposition criticism and small street protests have erupted in recent weeks, adding to pressures on the government of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, which has sought help from the International Monetary Fund to safeguard the country’s finances.

    Experts say Bangladesh’s predicament is nowhere nearly as severe as Sri Lanka’s, where months’ long unrest led its long-time president to flee the country and people are enduring outright shortages of food, fuel and medicines, spending days in queues for essentials. But it faces similar troubles: excessive spending on ambitious development projects, public anger over corruption and cronyism and a weakening trade balance.

    Such trends are undermining Bangladesh’s impressive progress, fueled largely by its success as a garment manufacturing hub, toward becoming a more affluent, middle-income country.

    The government raised fuel prices by more than 50% last month to counter soaring costs due to high oil prices, triggering protests over the rising cost of living. That led authorities to order the subsidized sales of rice and other staples by government-appointed dealers.

    The latest phase of the program, which began Sept. 1, should help about 50 million people, said Commerce Minister Tipu Munshi.

    “The government has taken a number of measures to reduce pressures on low-income earners. That is impacting the market and keeping prices of daily commodities competitive,” he said.

    The policies are a stopgap for bigger global and domestic challenges.

    The war in Ukraine has pushed higher prices of many commodities at a time when they already were surging as demand recovered with a waning of the coronavirus pandemic. In the meantime, countries like Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Laos — among many — have seen their currencies weaken against the dollar, adding to the costs for dollar-denominated imports of oil and other goods.

    To ease the strain on public finances and foreign reserves, the authorities put a moratorium on big, new projects, cut office hours to save energy and imposed limits on imports of luxury goods and non-essential items, such as sedans and SUVs.

    “The Bangladesh economy is facing strong headwinds and turbulence,” said Ahmad Ahsan, an economist and director of the Dhaka-based Policy Research Institute, a thinktank. “Suddenly we are back to the era of rolling power cuts, with the taka and the forex reserves under pressure,” he said.

    Millions of low-income Bangladeshis, like Begum, whose family of five can barely afford to eat fish or meat even once a month, still struggle to put food on the table.

    Bangladesh has made huge strides in the past two decades in growing its economy and fighting poverty. Investments in garment manufacturing have provided jobs for tens of millions of workers, mostly women. Exports of apparel and related products account for more than 80% of its exports.

    But with fuel costs so high, authorities shut diesel-run power plants that produced at least 6% of total production, cutting daily power generation by 1,500 megawatts and disrupting manufacturing.

    Imports in the last fiscal year, ending in June, 2022, rose to $84 billion, while exports have fluctuated, leaving a record current account deficit of $17 billion.

    More challenges are ahead.

    Deadlines are fast approaching for repaying foreign loans related to at least 20 mega infrastructure projects, including the $3.6 billion River Padma bridge built by China and a nuclear power plant mostly funded by Russia. Experts say Bangladesh needs to prepare for when repayment schedules ramp up between 2024 and 2026.

    In July, in a move economists view as a precautionary measure, Bangladesh sought a $4.5 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund, becoming the third country in South Asia to recently seek its help after Sri Lanka and Pakistan.

    Finance Minister A.H.M. Mustafa Kamal said that the government asked the IMF to begin formal negotiations on loans “for balance of payments and budgetary assistance.” The IMF said it was working with Bangladesh to draw up a plan.

    Bangladesh’s foreign reserves have been falling, potentially undermining its ability to meet its loan obligations. By Wednesday they had dropped to $36.9 billion from $45.5 billion a year earlier, according to the central bank.

    Usable foreign reserves would be about $30 billion, said Zahid Hussain, a former chief economist of the World Bank’s Dhaka office.

    “I would not say this is a crisis situation. This is still enough to meet three months of imports, three and half months of imports. But it also means that … you do not have a lot of room for maneuvering on the reserve front,” he said.

    Still, despite what some economists say is excessive spending on some costly projects, Bangladesh is better equipped to weather hard times than some other countries in the region.

    Its farm sector — tea, rice and jute are major exports — is an effective “shock absorber,” and its economy, four to five times larger than Sri Lanka’s, is less vulnerable to outside calamities like a downturn in tourism.

    The economy is forecast to grow at a 6.6% pace this fiscal year, according to the Asia Development Bank’s latest forecast, and the country’s total debt is still relatively small.

    “I think in the current context, the most important difference between Sri Lanka and Bangladesh is the debt burden, particularly the external debt,” said Hussain.

    Bangladesh’s external debt is under 20% of its gross domestic product, while Sri Lanka’s was around 126% in the first quarter of 2022.

    “So, we have some space. I mean debt as a source of stress on the macroeconomy is not much of a much problem yet,” he said.

    Waiting in a line to buy subsidized food, 48-year-old Mohammed Jamal said he was not feeling such leeway for his own family.

    “It has become unbearable trying to maintain our standard of living,” Jamal said. “Prices are just out of reach for the common people,” he said. “It’s tough living this way.”

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  • ICAIE Issues New Report on the Dark Side of Illicit Economies and Trade-Based Money Laundering: Free Trade Zones, Ports, and Financial Safe Havens

    ICAIE Issues New Report on the Dark Side of Illicit Economies and Trade-Based Money Laundering: Free Trade Zones, Ports, and Financial Safe Havens

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    The staggering multi-trillion dollar global illicit economy is thriving from dirty money derived from an array of cross-border smuggling and trafficking crimes. Free trade zones, poorly regulated ports, ineffective enforcement of beneficial ownership laws and secretive financial hubs are threat multipliers that expand dark commerce, as criminals exploit cracks and seams in the global financial and trading systems to advance illicit trade and hide their profits. No one alone can fight illicit economies; public-private partnerships are critical.

    Press Release


    Jun 13, 2022

    Today, the International Coalition Against Illicit Economies (ICAIE), a national security non-governmental organization based in Washington, DC, released a new 2022 report entitled, “The Dark Side of Illicit Economies and TBML: Free Trade Zones, Ports, and Financial Safe Havens”. The ICAIE report and recommendations outline the importance of public-private partnerships to counter illicit trade and TBML. ICAIE highlights the importance of leveraging strategic intelligence, network analytics, and pattern-of-life forensics to disrupt the logistics, financial wherewithal, and corruptive influence of criminals and their complicit enablers across borders, trade hubs, illicit economies, free trade zones (FTZs), and vulnerable ports. While the report has a focus on the Americas, it also illuminates the convergence of transnational criminal activities and illicit financial threats across other regions and global supply chains.

    In recent decades the confluence of transnational criminal structures and illicit economies has grown to create a clear and present danger to global security by siphoning trillions of dollars from legal economies. These funds fuel growing corruption, instability and violence while destabilizing markets in the Americas and around the world. Criminal actors and threat networks connected through global super fixers exploit advances in technology, transportation and other critical infrastructure for illicit enrichment. In these dangerous times, converging illicit vectors erode our collective governance, prosperity, and security.

    “Illicit trade, the trafficking and smuggling of counterfeit goods, narcotics, humans, natural resources, WMD, illicit cigarettes, and other contraband impact the security of all societies. Kleptocrats, criminal organizations, terrorist groups, and their enablers exploit networked hubs of illicit trade centered on free trade zones, ports, and other logistical channels of transportation, communications, and trade,” said David M. Luna, ICAIE Executive Director. “This allows illicit networks – such as the Chinese triads, Mexican cartels, Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC), and Hezbollah – to profit from an array of criminal activities and corrupt institutions, drain resources for economic development, and compromise the integrity of supply chains. No country is immune from these pernicious security threats in the globalized world.”

    ICAIE brings together diverse champions across sectors and communities, including former members of the public sector, companies and prominent organizations from the private sector and civil society to mobilize energies to combat cross-border illicit threats that endanger U.S. national security. In the coming months, ICAIE is committed to raising awareness of the harms and impacts of illicit economies, TBML, and crime convergence in risky FTZs and criminalized ports.  ICAIE’s engagement will include briefings in the U.S. Congress, the White House and federal government, and across the international community including at the 2022 Concordia Americas Summit in Miami in July. ICAIE will also continue to support the United to Safeguard America from Illegal Trade (USA-IT) alliance to fight illegal trade across the country.

    Find Full ICAIE Report and visit us at: 

    https://www.icaie.com

    https://www.icaie.com/resources

    David M. Luna

    Executive Director

    E: DavidLuna@ICAIE.com

    Source: ICAIE

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  • ‘Suez Canal and Challenges in World Trade’ Conference Kicks Off at Expo 2020 Dubai Amid International Turnout

    ‘Suez Canal and Challenges in World Trade’ Conference Kicks Off at Expo 2020 Dubai Amid International Turnout

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    Admiral Osama Rabie, Chairman of the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), attended on Sunday morning the international conference the SCA organized under the title ‘The Suez Canal and Challenges in World Trade’ as part of Expo 2020 Dubai. 

    The conference discussed how to support global trade amid different challenges, including the coronavirus pandemic, as well as the policies and procedures adopted to ensure the sustainability of the services the SCA offers and the continuation of the flow of global trade through the Suez Canal, which is the lifeline of supply the world over.

    Nevine Gamea, the Egyptian Minister of Trade and Industry, participated in the seminar via videoconference. Other participants included Yehia Zaki, Chairman of the Suez Canal Economic Zone, and a host of officials working in the maritime transport sector locally, regionally and globally, as well as representatives of the most prominent international commercial and maritime associations, institutions, companies, and shipping lines.

    Taking part in the international conference were: Rumaih bin Muhammad Al-Rumaih, President of the Public Transport Authority in Saudi Arabia; Henriette Hallberg Thygesen, CEO of Fleet and Strategic Brands at Mærsk; Guy Platten, Secretary-General of the International Chamber of Shipping; Keiji Tomoda, Vice President of the Japanese Shipowners’ Association; and Yasser Zaghloul, Group CEO of the United Arab Emirates’ National Marine Dredging Company.

    Launching the conference, Admiral Rabie welcomed the attendees, the partners in business and success, who attended the event to exchange ideas and visions that serve the interests of the global navigation community and the maritime transport industry and that are meant to shape the future of the industry in the medium and long terms. He saluted the organizers of Expo 2020 Dubai for hosting this important event, expressing his pride in the success of this edition, which has captured the world’s attention.

    In his speech, Admiral Rabie stressed the importance of the concerted efforts of all the parties in the maritime transport industry to maximize available resources to face various changes and unprecedented challenges to the global trade movement. The most prominent of these challenges is the coronavirus pandemic and its variants and climate change and its grave repercussions, which may reshape the map of global trade movement and related logistical operations for decades to come.

    Admiral Rabie stressed that the SCA is fully aware of the challenges the world has been facing over the past two decades and which still cast a large shadow on the global trade movement and the global supply chain. These challenges resulted in the biggest lockdown humanity has ever known, he added.

    The SCA chairman spoke about a number of successful experiences through which the authority was able to overcome enormous challenges and turn them into opportunities for success and growth, such as overcoming the challenges posed by the coronavirus crisis and its repercussions on global trade movement thanks to the direct support of the political leadership and the adoption of a number of thoroughly studied measures and flexible pricing and marketing policies. The SCA did all of this while supporting the global trade movement, customers, and shipping companies and lines operating in the field of maritime transport, preserving the safety of workers in the Suez Canal and ensuring that infection does not spread among them, while increasing the revenues of the canal, which is one of the most important hard currency earners for the Egyptian economy, the admiral stated.

    These marketing policies have succeeded in attracting 4,920 new ships in 2021 that had not previously passed through the Suez Canal, and achieved an increase in revenues of $1.1 billion, he pointed out.

    Admiral Rabie explained that the SCA has made great strides towards enhancing the use of digital technology as part of its ambitious strategy for 2023. The authority has succeeded in completing the design and construction of two advanced data centers in conjunction with the implementation of the comprehensive digital transformation of the electronic monitoring system and the 16 navigational guidance stations along the course of the canal. The authority has also made a unified network system that allowed the launch of five electronic services entirely directed to international shipping lines.

    Citing the success of the SCA’s digital transformation system in achieving its goals, Admiral Rabie said the authority implemented a remote reception and guidance operation, which was the first of its kind, for one of the largest cruise passenger ships in the world without the presence of an SCA guide on board, as is the procedure, due to the presence of 65 confirmed coronavirus cases on board the ship.

    The SCA chairman stressed that the authority’s development strategy also focused on the environmental dimension, which is in line with achieving the objectives of the Egypt Vision 2030 strategy and the Egyptian state’s wish to take effective steps towards achieving carbon neutrality and cementing efforts to curb the repercussions of climate change. This is the framework under which Egypt was chosen to host the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP27) in November.

    The authority has adopted all the necessary measures and procedures to ensure the announcement of the Suez Canal as a “green canal” and to work on reducing carbon emissions for transiting ships by providing various incentives for shipping lines that observe environmental standards, he said.

    Admiral Rabie referred to the mega vessel Ever Given, sailing under the flag of Panama, that blocked the Suez Canal, as being a practical example of how the SCA overcomes crises and is able to turn challenges into opportunities. The SCA’s various specialized team members were able to float the ship safely in only six days, despite the expectations of experts in the maritime transport and global rescue sector that the flotation process would take weeks or months, rendering the incident the focus of the world’s attention.

    In her speech, Gamea, the Minister of Trade and Industry, stressed the government’s keenness to maximize the economic benefit of the Suez Canal on the regional and international levels to boost Egypt’s position as a global commercial and logistics hub. She added that the global trade movement is currently facing many challenges, the most important of which is the coronavirus pandemic, which has led to a decrease in global trade growth rates as a result of lockdowns, travel restrictions, and border closures, in addition to the rising prices of energy, and subsequently the increase in the cost of freight and transportation.

    The minister stated that the Egyptian government adopted many exceptional measures that aided in the resumption of work in the industrial sector during the pandemic, which contributed to the availability of goods and services in the local market. She explained that many exceptional measures were taken to facilitate the release of goods for the continuation of trade movement and supply chains. Minister Gamea added that her ministry worked in coordination with the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Transport to raise the efficiency of customs release systems by linking the concerned authorities electronically and beginning the implementation of the system in October 2021, which contributed to reducing the time for releasing raw materials needed for industries.

    Minister Gamea explained that the Ministry of Trade and Industry has implemented a comprehensive strategy to gain access to more markets and enhance the competitiveness of Egyptian products to reach the target of $100 billion in exports annually, pointing out that the Egyptian Council for Export has been reconstituted under the leadership of H. E. President of Egypt Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi. Plans and policies to maximize exports were designed while activating the role of the Export Development Fund, developing a network of trade partnerships with foreign markets, and benefiting from regional integration and preferential trade agreements. 

    These measures contributed to a leap in Egyptian exports, which exceeded $31 billion in 2021, in addition to the increase in the contribution of industrial production to GDP to reach 17 percent during fiscal year 2019/2020, up from about 16 percent in fiscal year 2018/2019, the minister added. 

    Minister Gamea pointed out that the Egyptian government welcomes the promotion of joint commercial and industrial cooperation with all countries to maximize their investments in Egypt and benefit from the advantages offered by the Egyptian market. The most important of these is access to global markets through preferential trade agreements reached between Egypt and many countries and regional and international groupings, which provide nearly 2.6 billion people around the world with access to Egyptian products.

    Zaki, the Chairman of the Suez Canal Economic Zone, announced in his speech the launch of ship fueling and marine services in the economic zone in the coming months. The zone is adding the final touches to activate these services and to study the offers it has received, he said, pointing out that marine and fueling services are some of the goals stated in the Economic Zone Strategy 2020-2025. He added that projects for the green hydrogen industry in the zone will be announced in conjunction with Egypt’s hosting of COP27 in November.

    Zaki stated that the Suez Canal Economic Zone is a promising investment destination with a total area of 461 square kilometers, comprising four industrial zones and six seaports. It is located on the main international sea route and is an attractive platform for many industries with its comprehensive ports, logistics, and industrial areas, which enjoy world-class infrastructure and utility networks, including electric power, water desalination, water supply and wastewater treatment plants, in addition to telecommunications and natural gas.

    Zaki stressed that the Suez Canal Economic Zone has succeeded in achieving its objectives, which focused on creating opportunities to attract diversified investments, pointing out that the economic zone targeted about 15 industrial and logistical sectors, three of which have already been contracted, namely the petrochemical industries that are located in Ain Sokhna, and industries for railroad supplies, green hydrogen and marine services, in addition to participating in the Egyptian state’s plan to localize the automobile industries.

    Suez Canal sees strong growth despite challenges

    The Suez Canal has retained its importance as the most vital navigational waterway in the world for more than 150 years, thanks to its unique strategic location that places it at the heart of the global trade movement and makes it the lifeline of global supply chains, especially those related to global maritime trade. Ninety percent of the world’s seaborne trade passes through the Suez Canal.

    Despite the repercussions of the coronavirus pandemic, the subsequent fragility of global economic conditions, and the recent global supply chain disruptions, the SCA succeeded in overcoming these challenges after it was able to guide more than 20,000 ships with a total tonnage of more than 1 billion tons annually to cross the most important shipping lane in the world.

    For more information, please contact: angie.mahran@strategic.ae

    Source: Suez Canal and Challenges in World Trade Conference

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