BERLIN — Tens of thousands of people gathered in Germany’s capital Saturday to show solidarity with antigovernment protesters in Iran, where a movement sparked by the death of a woman in the custody of morality police has evolved into a challenge to the Islamic Republic.
Berlin police estimated that 37,000 people had joined the German demonstration by late afternoon. Participants held up Iranian flags and signs criticizing Iran’s leaders, many with the tagline “Women, Life, Freedom” in both English and German.
The demonstration, organized by the Woman(asterisk) Life Freedom Collective, began at the Victory Column in Berlin’s Tiergarten park and continued as a march through central Berlin.
Some demonstrators said they had come from elsewhere in Germany and other European countries to show their support.
“It is so important for us to be here, to be the voice of the people of Iran, who are killed on the streets,” said Shakib Lolo, who is from Iran but lives in the Netherlands. “And this is not a protest anymore, this is a revolution, in Iran. And the people of the world have to see it.”
Other issues were the focus of demonstrations in Berlin as well, including one calling for social solidarity in the wake of a potential energy crisis and another advocating a speed limit on German highways.
In Tehran, more antigovernment protests took place Saturday at several universities. The nationwide movement in Iran first focused on the country’s mandatory hijab following the Sept. 16 death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini while in the custody of the morality police.
Security forces have dispersed gatherings with live ammunition and tear gas, leaving over 200 people dead, according to rights groups.
The government in Tehran also has been in the spotlight in European capitals due to allegations that Iran has supplied explosive drones that Russian troops are using in Ukraine.
WASHINGTON — Chanting crowds marched in the streets of Berlin, Washington DC and Los Angeles on Saturday in a show of international support for demonstrators facing a violent government crackdown in Iran, sparked by the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini in the custody of that country’s morality police.
On the U.S. National Mall, thousands of women and men of all ages — donning green, white and red, the colors of the Iran flag — chanted. “Be scared. Be scared. We are one in this,” some shouted, ahead of the group’s march to the White House. “Say her name! Mahsa!”
The demonstrations, put together by grassroots organizers from around the United States, drew Iranians from across the Washington D.C. area, with some travelling down from Toronto to join the crowd.
In Los Angeles, home to the biggest population of Iranians outside of Iran, a throng of protesters formed a slow-moving procession along blocks of a closed downtown street. They chanted for the fall of Iran’s government and waved hundreds of Iranian flags that turned the horizon into a undulating wave of red, white and green.
“We want freedom,” they thundered in unison.
Shooka Scharm, an attorney who was born in the U.S. after her parents fled the Iranian revolution, was wearing a T-shirt with the slogan “Women, Life, Freedom” in English and Farsi. In Iran “women are like a second-class citizen and they are sick of it,” Scharm said.
She said women can be arrested for wearing the wrong makeup color, historically important women are omitted from book and they have few rights in matters such as divorce and child custody. Iranian women “are standing up to unbelievable odds for basic human rights.”
The Biden administration has said it condemns the brutality and repression against the citizens of Iran and that it will look for ways to impose more sanctions against the Iranian government if the violence continues.
In Tehran, more antigovernment protests took place Saturday at several universities. The nationwide movement in Iran first focused on the country’s mandatory hijab covering for women following Amiri’s death on Sept. 16. The Iranian protests have since transformed into the greatest challenge to the Islamic Republic since the 2009 Green Movement over disputed elections.
Iran’s security forces have dispersed gatherings in that country with live ammunition and tear gas, killing over 200 people, including teenage girls, according to rights groups.
In Berlin, nearly 40,000 people gathered turned out to show solidarity for the women and activists leading the movement for the past few weeks in Iran. The protests in Germany’s capital, organized by the Woman(asterisk) Life Freedom Collective, began at the Victory Column in Berlin’s Tiergarten park and continued as a march through central Berlin.
Some demonstrators there said they had come from elsewhere in Germany and other European countries to show their support.
“It is so important for us to be here, to be the voice of the people of Iran, who are killed on the streets,” said Shakib Lolo, who is from Iran but lives in the Netherlands. “And this is not a protest anymore, this is a revolution, in Iran. And the people of the world have to see it.”
Several weeks of Saturday solidarity rallies in the U.S. capital have drawn growing crowds.
———
Blood reported from Los Angeles.
Follow AP’s coverage of Iran at: https://apnews.com/hub/iran
Europe, the world’s largest economic bloc, enjoyed stable trade surpluses for a decade but the war in Ukraine and the ensuing energy crisis have tipped the Continent into a spiraling external deficit unseen since the launch of the euro.
The terms-of-trade shock maxed out in August, the latest month for which trade figures are available. And, even though energy prices have since eased, European leaders are still scrambling to shore up supplies of affordable oil and gas to replace lost Russian deliveries. A harsh winter looms.
A breakdown of the trade figures shows that the EU’s manufacturing trade surplus has nearly halved this year.
Can Europe bounce back? Or will its industrial base become hollowed out as industry moves offshore? And will the eurozone, and the EU more broadly, end up being saddled with the chronic external deficits that have long plagued the United States and, more recently, destabilized Britain? POLITICO breaks it down for you:
What’s going on?
The eurozone’s negative trade balance with the rest of the world in August stood at €50.9 billion, the highest deficit ever recorded, compared to a €2.8 billion surplus a year ago, according to the latest Eurostat numbers.
The trade deficit for the EU as a whole spiraled to €64.7 billion.
The eurozone’s current account balance — the balance of all trade in goods and services as well as international transfers of capital, such as remittances — hit a €26.32 billion deficit in August, largely driven by the trade deficit in goods, the European Central Bank reported.
Is that a bad thing?
A trade deficit occurs when a country or trading bloc’s imports exceed its exports. A trade surplus is the opposite. Trade deficits are not per se good or bad, although many countries seek a trade surplus, including by setting up tariffs and quotas to artificially boost their trade balance, a practice known as mercantilism.
Is it temporary?
The trade deficit is largely driven by high energy prices, which in August hit a record €350 per megawatt hour. Prices have come down from their peak, trading at around €150/MWh, but they are still a multiple of where they were a year ago.
“Markets have gone from pricing this energy crisis as being temporary, they are now pricing it to be a much longer-term story, albeit not as elevated as it was in August,” said Kristoffer Kjær Lomholt, chief FX analyst at Danske Bank.
“We think that it is a kind of a more long-term thing that is going to weigh on the currencies of economies that are energy importers, where the eurozone, of course, stands out to a very large extent,” he added.
Others believe that the shift, being largely energy related, could resolve itself over time, said Sam Lowe, who covers trade policy at Flint Global.
An EU official also pointed to EU-Russia trade. “The peak in energy prices has made the value of our imports from Russia increase substantially (while the volume of those imports from Russia decreased), and our exports have spiralled down because of sanctions (export controls),” the official said.
Will the EU be less competitive if energy prices remain high?
A negative trade balance and consequently a weaker currency makes imports more expensive. “Net importers will have to pay more for goods and services,” said Lomholt.
On the other hand, a weaker euro could fuel exports, said Matthias Krämer, head of external economic policy at German industry federation BDI. “If the euro currency was a little bit weaker, it could also make Europe’s position on global markets better by making exports cheaper,” he said.
But there’s another way of looking at this. Lowe argued the sustained large eurozone trade surplus was itself problematic, in that it was a function of intra-EU demand being lower than it should be. “Being overly dependent on external demand also leaves the EU quite vulnerable to both external shocks, and political coercion.”
What does that mean for the euro?
“We expect the euro to decline further in coming months as part of this adjustment,” said Robin Brooks, chief economist at the Institute of International Finance.
A negative trade balance or current account deficit puts downward pressure on the value of free-floating currencies, which move with demand of goods: less demand for a country’s exports means less demand for its currency, which in turn lowers its value relative to others. Conversely, strong foreign demand for goods strengthens a country’s currency.
“Foreign investors need to be compensated via a real depreciation of the exchange rate, and generally higher real interest rates,” said Lomholt at Danske Bank.
The Danish lender has recently downgraded its forecast for the € to $ exchange rate to $0.93 in 12 months from virtual parity now, driven in part by the energy price shock. “We have for some time been arguing that €/$ looked overvalued and not undervalued … And just given the additional push to the energy crisis that we got during summer, we saw a case that the euro/dollar [exchange rate] should actually hit even lower,” he said.
Is business freaking out?
A bit.
“The data are not so surprising considering the high energy prices, but they are worrying”, said Luisa Santos, responsible for international relations at BusinessEurope. She called on the EU to try to bring energy prices down and to boost exports by opening new market opportunities via more trade agreements.
Germany, the bloc’s export powerhouse, increased its exports by 14 percent in the first eight months of the year but imports have surged by more than 27 percent, according to national trade figures.
“We’re not performing in a segment which is highly influenced by a cost driven competition,” said Krämer at the German industry federation. “But if this situation will last longer of course some parts of our industry will be more and more under pressure.”
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Wind turbines are seen near the coal-fired power station Neurath of German energy giant RWE in … [+] Garzweiler, western Germany, on March 15, 2021. – On March 16, 2021, the group will present its detailed figures for 2020, for the last time with RWE CEO Rolf Martin Schmitz. Despite the coronavirus pandemic, 2020 was a successful year for RWE. (Photo by Ina FASSBENDER / AFP) (Photo by INA FASSBENDER/AFP via Getty Images)
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Germany was once a leader among nations in the development of wind energy, but after 2015 it curtailed wind investment as it relied increasingly on natural gas imported from Russia.
“Had the country followed the same trajectory of growth in annual installations as the rest of Europe, installed wind-power capacity would have been 32 gigawatts greater at the end of 2021,” according to a new report, “Winds Not Harnessed,” by the Helsinki-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.
“This additional wind power would have generated more electricity than Germany’s six remaining nuclear power plants in 2021,” the report says, and it would have replaced more gas than Germany imported through the Nord Stream Pipeline 1 before that supply was cut off.
Had it continued its early pace of wind development, Germany could have saved 23 billion euros it spent on natural gas this year and avoided 5% of its energy related greenhouse-gas emissions, according to the report. That volume of emissions is equivalent to all of Switzerland’s emissions last year.
“Instead,” the report says, “Germany is entering the first wartime winter in Europe in over 70 years less energy secure than it had reason to be.”
“Installation of German wind power capacity accelerated till 2015 before a period of stagnation … [+] turned into a clear fall in annual installations after 2017,” says the CREA report. Data source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2022.
CREA
Germany’s dependence on Russian gas is often linked to its decision to shut down its nuclear plants in the wake of the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster. But the CREA report argues that wind power could have effectively substituted for that gas.
“Gas and wind power have different uses in the energy system, so they are far from perfect substitutes,” the report acknowledges. “However, in the power sector, where about one third of all gas is used in Europe, increased wind power generation will replace gas and coal in a ratio that depends on fuel prices and a host of other factors — this is a simple consequence of the merit order in which the generation sources with the highest marginal cost are used last. In the extreme situation of a physical gas shortage, gas prices rise so high that the fuel being replaced becomes almost always gas.”
Until the Ukraine war spiked the cost of natural gas, gas enjoyed more favorable economics than coal. Over the last 20 years Germany used more gas as it retired coal and nuclear plants.
Had Germany instead invested in more wind power “it could have significantly reduced Germany’s reliance on fossil fuel imports, thereby lessening the ability of Putin to blackmail the Bundesrepublik by cutting gas supplies,” the report says.
“Germany would have been less affected by Russia’s weaponization of trade in energy products, and fluctuations of fossil fuel prices on the global market.”
The thick light blue line at the bottom shows Germany’s actual investment in wind power, which began … [+] to stagnate in 2015. The light blue line just above it shows the wind power Germany would enjoy now had it continued its own trajectory. The dark blue line at the top shows the wind power Germany would enjoy now had it followed the trajectory of wind development in the rest of Europe. Data sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2022 and CREA.
Europe is waking up to a troubling reality: It may soon lose its NATO benefactor in Ukraine.
With conservatives poised to make gains in the upcoming U.S. elections, NATO’s most generous donor to Ukraine’s war effort may suddenly seem much more parsimonious in 2023.
The possibility has put the spotlight on the gap between American and European aid.
Already, it’s been a tough sell to get all of Europe’s NATO members to dedicate 2 percent of their economic output to defense spending. Now, they are under increasing pressure from the U.S. to go even further than that. And that comes amid an already tough conversation across Europe about how to refill its own dwindling military stockpiles while simultaneously funding Ukraine’s rebuild.
Still, the mantra among U.S. Republicans — whom polls show are favored to take control of one of two chambers of Congress after the November elections — has been that Europe needs to step up.
“Our allies,” said Tim Burchett, a Tennessee Republican who sits on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, “need to start addressing the problem in their own backyard before they ask us for any more involvement.”
While European governments have opened their wallets and military stockpiles to Ukraine at record levels, Washington’s military assistance to Kyiv still dwarfs Europe’s efforts. It’s a disparity Republicans are keen to highlight as they argue Russia’s war in Ukraine is a much greater threat to Europe than it is to the U.S.
The result could be a changing tenor out of Washington if Congress falls into conservative control.
“It’s horrible what the Russians are doing,” Burchett added, but said he sees China and drug cartels as “more threatening to the United States of America than what’s going on in Ukraine.”
2 percent becomes the baseline
Since Moscow launched its assault on Ukraine, European capitals have pledged over €200 billion in new defense spending.
NATO allies pledged in 2014 to aim to move towards spending 2 percent of GDP on defense within a decade, and an increasing number of governments are taking this promise seriously. But the Biden administration wants them to go even further.
The 2 percent benchmark is just “what we would expect” from allies, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said earlier this month. “We would encourage countries to go above that 2 percent because we’re gonna have to invest more in expanding industrial bases and making sure that we’re doing the right things to replace” some of what was provided to Ukraine.
“As we step up our own sizable contributions to NATO capabilities and readiness,” the document says, “we will count on our Allies to continue assuming greater responsibility by increasing their spending, capabilities, and contributions.”
It’s an aspiration that will be hard for many European policymakers, who themselves face economic woes at home. The U.K., for instance, has committed to hitting a 3 percent defense spending target but recently acknowledged the “shape” of its increase could change as recent policy changes roil the economy.
The Biden administration has taken a path of friendly encouragement toward Europe, rather than haranguing its partners.
But Republicans are not as keen to take such a convivial tone. And if they take control of Congress, Republicans will have more of a say over the U.S. pursestrings — and the tone emerging from Washington.
“I think people are gonna be sitting in a recession and they’re not going to write a blank check to Ukraine,” House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy told Punchbowl news earlier this week.
“There’s the things [the Biden administration] is not doing domestically,” he added. “Not doing the border and people begin to weigh that. Ukraine is important, but at the same time it can’t be the only thing they do and it can’t be a blank check.”
US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said earlier this month that the benchmark of 2 percent of GDP spent on defense is what is expected from allies | Omar Havana/Getty Images
Republicans are likely eyeing the polls, which show a slim but growing chunk of Americans saying the U.S. is providing too much support to Ukraine. The figure has risen from 7 percent in March to 20 percent in September, according to a Pew Research Center poll. And it now stands at 32 percent among Republican-leaning voters.
So while President Joe Biden continues to ask Congress to approve more Ukraine aid packages, observers say there could be more skepticism in the coming months.
“It’s becoming harder because the sense is that we’re doing it all and the Europeans aren’t,” said Max Bergmann, director of the Europe Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
And while noting that “in some ways, that’s unfair” due to the economic cost of the war to Europe, he said that on the military side aid for Ukraine and spending on defense industrial capacity is now “the new 2 percent.”
In European capitals, policymakers are watching Washington closely.
“For Europeans, the idea that U.S. politics matters — that what happens in the midterm election will have implications for what will be expected of us from [our] U.S. ally — is something that is taken more and more seriously,” said Martin Quencez, a research fellow at the German Marshall Fund’s Paris office.
The Brussels view
But back in Brussels, some officials insist there’s little reason for worry.
“There is broad, bipartisan support for Ukraine,” said David McAllister, chair of the European Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee.
Indeed, while the more Donald Trump-friendly wing of the Republican Party is opposed to continuing aid to Ukraine, more traditional Republicans have actually supported Biden’s aid for Kyiv.
“If there was a Republican majority in congressional committees, I expect an impact on debates about which weapons to supply to Ukraine, for example,” McAllister said in an email. “Ultimately, though, the president maintains considerable control over foreign policy.”
McAllister, a member of Germany’s conservative Christian Democratic Union, said Europe is already increasing its defensive investments and aid to Kyiv, pointing to an EU initiative to train Ukrainian soldiers and a recent bump up for an EU fund that reimburses countries for military supplies sent to Ukraine.
Polish MEP Witold Waszczykowski, the Foreign Affairs Committee’s vice chair, also said in an email that he doesn’t expect a Republican-dominated Congress to shift Ukraine policy — while urging Washington to put more pressure on Europe.
“Poland and other Eastern flank countries cannot persuade Europeans enough to support Ukraine,” said Waszczykowski, a member of the conservative ruling Law and Justice party.
The “smell of appeasement and expectations to come back to business as usual with Russia,” the Polish politician said, “dominates in European capitals and European institutions.”
German Interior Minister Nancy Faeser has fired Arne Schönbohm, head of the country’s cybersecurity agency (BSI), following a controversy over his alleged contacts with Russia.
Schönbohm is to exit the Interior Ministry with immediate effect, a ministry spokesperson told local media in Berlin today. In addition, disciplinary proceedings have been initiated against Schönbohm. Previously, Spiegel had reported on Schönbohm’s involuntary departure.
Schönbohn founded an industry association in 2012 — the Cyber Security Council — and chaired it until he became head of the BSI in 2016. According to a ZDF report from October 7, the association was prone to Russian espionage and influence; rumors of Schönbohm’s ouster followed the broadcaster’s investigation.
However, throughout the past week, experts across Germany jumped to Schönbohm’s defense, pointing to his good record as BSI chief: “You have to acknowledge, he really pushed the BSI forward,” said IT security expert Manuel Atug.
Other experts even criticized Faeser for not standing by her cyber agency.
“The Ministry of the Interior must finally stand up for [the BSI] in order to limit the damage to its image. So far, nothing has come to light in this context where the [BSI] has acted in a problematic or wrong way,” said Sven Herpig, international cybersecurity policy director at Stiftung Neue Verantwortung, on October 13.
Faeser has now decided to give the BSI a fresh start with a new face — but Schönbohm’s successor is not yet known.
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Pilots at Eurowings, the German airline Lufthansa’s budget subsidiary, have started their second strike this month in a dispute over working conditions
BERLIN — Pilots at Eurowings, German airline Lufthansa’s budget subsidiary, have started their second strike this month in a dispute over working conditions.
The Vereinigung Cockpit union called pilots out on a three-day strike starting Monday morning.
Despite the walkout, Eurowings said it expected more than 230 of Monday’s planned 400 services to go ahead as usual. Flights operated by Austrian subsidiary Eurowings Europe and by Eurowings Discover, which flies from Frankfurt and Munich, weren’t affected.
At Duesseldorf airport, however, 102 of the day’s scheduled 171 Eurowings flights were canceled, German news agency dpa reported.
Pilots are asking for the maximum number of flying hours to be reduced. They previously staged a one-day strike on Oct. 6. Eurowings described the latest strike as disproportionate and irresponsible.
Strikes at parent company Lufthansa were called off last month after the airline and union reached a pay deal to address the effects of inflation.
Vladimir Putin in power has brutalized millions as he careens into tyranny.
Yet Vladimir Putin out of power will bring its own brand of chaos: a Shakespearean knife-fight for power; unleashed regional leaders; a nuclear arsenal up for grabs.
For now, few want to publicly talk about that post-Putin world, wary of the perception of meddling in domestic politics. But privately, western countries and analysts are plotting the scenarios that could unfold when Putin inevitably departs — and how Ukraine’s allies should react.
“I will be careful speculating too much about the domestic political situation in Russia,” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said last week when asked how the alliance was preparing for the possibility of the Russian leader leaving office.
“Regardless of what different analyses may indicate, I think what we need to do at NATO is to be prepared for all eventualities and when it comes to Ukraine, be prepared to continue to support them,” he said.
One consensus: It won’t be a clean transition, posing myriad dilemmas that could strain Western allies. How much can — and should — they influence the succession process? What should they do if a Russian republic breaks away? What relationship should they pursue with Putin’s successor?
“We should put aside any illusions that what happens next immediately is democracy,” said Laurie Bristow, a former British ambassador to Russia.
“What I think happens next,” he added, “is probably a time of troubles.”
An explosive succession fight
For now, Putin is in a safe position. He still controls the state apparatus, and the military is executing his murderous orders in Ukraine.
But the Russian leader’s flailing invasion of Ukraine has diminished his position at home and deepened uncertainties over who would take over, and how.
“To manage a stable succession when the time comes — which will in Putin’s mind be a time of his choosing — then you need a high degree of elite consensus,” said Bristow, who served as the United Kingdom’s envoy in Moscow from 2016 until 2020.
“What they’ve done now is break that consensus,” he said, noting there is now more vying for power within the Kremlin.
That fighting could turn bloody once the Kremlin’s top job finally opens up.
“This could get very Shakespearean, think King Lear, or [the] Roman Empire, like I, Claudius, or Games of Thrones, very quickly,” said William Alberque, a former director of NATO’s arms control center.
Alexander Vershbow, a former senior U.S. and NATO official, said the most likely scenario was still a “smooth transition” within Putin’s current inner circle — but he conceded that toppling tyrants can beget turmoil. “There could be internal instability,” he said, “and things become very unpredictable in authoritarian systems, in personalistic dictatorships.”
Bristow, the former British ambassador, warned Western powers to stay out of such succession fights: “I think we have to recognize the limits of our ability to influence these outcomes.”
Although, the ex-envoy conceded, “we certainly have an interest in the outcome.”
Nukes = power
Russia is sitting on the world’s largest stockpile of nuclear weapons, featuring thousands of warheads that can each inflict massive destruction, death and trauma on a population.
The arsenal has long been a source of Russian strength on the world stage and a dominant part of its global image — for years, the possibility of a Kremlin nuclear strike dominated the public imagination in the U.S. and elsewhere.
In a period of leadership uncertainty, that arsenal could become a coveted symbol of power. That would put focus on the Russian military’s nuclear protector, the 12th Main Directorate, or GUMO.
“There’s a real possibility,” said Alberque, “that there would be deadly competition — competition to include people trying to rally different parts of the military — particularly the 12th GUMO that controls Russia’s nuclear arsenal.”
Rogue regions
Put simply, Russia is the largest country in the world, stretching across 11 time zones and climbing from the Caucasus to the Arctic.
While Putin may seem to hold a despotic grip on that entire expanse, there are a number of Russian republics with more tenuous connections to Moscow — and some with ambitious political figures. A power vacuum in a faraway capital could present an opening for local leaders to seize more control.
While most analysts believe the Russian Federation would largely hold together through a battle for Kremlin control, they acknowledge the Russian government has long feared fragmentation.
In the event of such factional fighting, all eyes will be on Ramzan Kadyrov, the brutal head of the Chechen Republic.
“Does he throw his weight behind a competing faction? Or does he say, ‘I’m good with a decade of massive Russian subsidies — now let’s break off, and I can probably rule Chechnya and Dagestan; I can have my own empire here’?” said Alberque, now a director at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine could also come back to haunt the Kremlin.
Vershbow, a former American ambassador to Russia, said there is a “low probability” of disintegration but noted that “ironically” Putin’s annexation of areas in eastern Ukraine “could be cited as a precedent by separatist leaders inside the Russian Federation, to say ‘borders are now up for grabs’.”
A return of the reset debate
Once a new leadership team is in place, that’s when the most bedeviling policy debates will begin for Western governments.
With Putin off the political stage, some officials — in particular in western Europe — may argue there is an opportunity to forge a fresh relationship with Moscow.
The U.S. infamously offered Russia a symbolic “reset” button at the start of Barack Obama’s presidency, only to see relations deteriorate further. And Germany for years preached the gospel of economic engagement with Russia, only to declare a historic “Zeitenwende,” or turning point, after Moscow’s invasion.
With new leadership in the Kremlin, Germany may say “oh, Zeitenwende, never mind. Let’s push the U.S. to do another reset with the new Russian leader,” Alberque said.
Inevitably, NATO’s eastern wing would deplore such overtures. They’d argue “Russia never changes,” Alberque said, and lean on allies to not recede from the more assertive NATO stance adopted since the war began.
Polish Minister for National Defense Mariusz Błaszczak made exactly that point to POLITICO.
“Russia in a version with Tsar as a leader was the same like Russia in a version with a secretary-general of Communist party as a leader, and now it’s the same as Vladimir Putin as a leader,” he said.
“What is important from our perspective,” he added, “is to isolate Russia.”
For now, there is no expected Putin successor. But officials say they are expecting a regime with a similar ideology — or one even more extreme.
Jānis Garisons, a Latvian state secretary, pointed out that Putin has already jailed critics — and possible future leaders — like Alexei Navalny, and only more hardliners on the outside are ready to step in.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is seen at the Bocharov Ruchei state residence | Pool photo by Vladimir Smirnov/AFP via Getty Images
“The only people who criticize him” and not in prison “are from the right wing,” Garisons said.
“We should not fall victim to a junta or some group of people coming forward saying that they want a reset,” said Ben Hodges, former commander of U.S. Army Europe, “if it’s still the same.”
One major difference this time around is that Europe is now less economically dependent on Moscow, reducing a key incentive to re-engage.
“We have gone a long way to stop buying from Russia,” said a senior EU diplomat, who spoke on condition of anonymity. “That would leave only the issues of nukes — but that will largely be with the Americans.”
Another signal Western leaders can look for is whether a Putin successor cooperates with international organizations seeking to prosecute Russian war crimes in Ukraine — a possibility, of course, that seems remote.
“Only a Russia determined to cooperate, would not represent a threat to Europe,” said Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavský.
Yet for all the assumptions that a cooperative Russia is far off, several current and former officials cautioned that western governments must combine deterrence with a longer-term effort to engage Russian civil society.
The Western alliance, said Bristow, must consider “how we reach out to Russian society beyond the Kremlin, to the next generation of Russian politicians, thinkers, intellectuals, teachers, businesspeople, to kind of spell out an alternative vision to the one they’ve got.”
“My sense,” he added, “is that quite a lot of people in Russia would like to do that.”
LONDON — Jeremy Hunt, the man brought in to save Liz Truss’ floundering premiership and calm spooked markets, is “not taking anything off the table” when it comes to rethinking the government’s economic policies.
In a round of broadcast interviews Sunday, Hunt — appointed as the U.K.’s top finance minister Friday after Truss sacked Kwasi Kwarteng — left the door open to fresh about-turns on the debt-funded, tax-cutting promises that helped Truss become Conservative leader just weeks ago.
“We are going to have to take some very difficult decisions, both on spending and on tax,” Hunt told the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg. “Spending is not going to increase by as much as people hoped, and indeed we’re going to have to ask all government departments to find more efficiencies than they had planned, and taxes are not going to go down as quickly as people thought, and some taxes are going go up,” he added.
Hunt — a former Cabinet minister and two-time leadership contender drawn from the center-left of the Conservative Party — is now in an extraordinarily powerful position, having been drafted in to salvage Truss’ premiership amid collapsing poll ratings and economic turmoil.
Conservative MPs have been openly criticizing her leadership, amid fevered speculation in Westminster that the party will try to oust her — a move that would likely require a change to the party’s internal rules and could put the U.K. on its third prime minister this year.
As well as sacking her chancellor, Truss was on Friday forced to abandon a totemic pledge from her leadership campaign, and she will now increase corporation tax as had originally been planned by the man she defeated in the Tory contest, Rishi Sunak. It followed a humiliating climbdown over plans to cut taxes for Britain’s top earners, unveiled in a so-called mini-budget in September that was not subject to the usual scrutiny by Britain’s independent fiscal watchdog and prompted an emergency intervention from the Bank of England and a sharp rise in mortgage rates.
Hunt went armed to his BBC interview with a message to voters and nervous MPs. “One thing I want to reassure families who are worried at home is that our priority, the lens through which we’re going to do this is as a compassionate Conservative government, and top of our mind when we’re making these decisions will be struggling families, struggling businesses, the most vulnerable people and we will be doing everything we can to protect them,” he said.
Pressed on the scope of his revised tax-and-spend plans ahead of a fiscal announcement slated for October 31, Hunt told the BBC: “I’m not taking anything off the table.”
But he warned Conservative MPs against trying to oust Truss, saying a further leadership contest was “the last thing that people really want.”
Elsewhere on Sunday, Tory MPs expressed their anger at the Truss administration. Senior backbencher and education committee chairman Robert Halfon said he was not calling for Truss to go “at this time,” but demanded a “dramatic reset” of her premiership.
The government, he told Sky News, had looked like “libertarian jihadists” who had treated the country like “laboratory mice.” Crispin Blunt, a former minister, became the first to publicly call on Truss to step aside, telling telling Channel 4 News: “U think the game’s up, and it’s now a question as to how the succession is managed.”
Amid efforts by some government ministers to paint the U.K.’s economic woes as entirely global, former Bank of England Deputy Governor Charlie Bean told Sky’s Sophy Ridge show: “Frankly, I think it’s disingenuous to say it’s all a global phenomenon; it’s not.”
On interest rate rises now facing the U.K., Bean argued that around two-thirds is down to global factors, with the rest a U.K.-specific phenomenon that’s developed since the mini-budget. “Basically we’ve moved from looking not too dissimilar from the U.S. or Germany as a proposition to lend to, to looking more like Italy and Greece,” he said.
WARSAW, Poland — The Polish operator of an oil pipeline running to Germany said Saturday that it has fixed the damage that caused a leak earlier this week and that the flow of crude oil from Russia has been fully restored.
The state-run operator, PERN, said that both lines of the Druzhba pipeline were operating normally, transporting oil.
It said that the cause of the leak that occurred Tuesday in a field in central Poland is still being investigated.
The Druzhba pipeline, which in Russian means “Friendship,” was built in the 1960s and is one of the world’s largest pipeline systems, bringing crude oil from Siberia to central Europe. It branches to reach Belarus, Ukraine, Poland, Hungary, Austria and Germany.
The leak follows attacks last month on the Baltic Sea Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines, in which explosives are said to have been used. Europe has been taking steps to reduce its reliance on Russian energy after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Dan Brouillette (left) was President Trump’s energy secretary from 2019-2021. Ernest Moniz served … [+] under President Obama from 2013-2017. The two men shared a stage Oct. 12, 2022 at Columbia University’s Global Energy Summit.
Columbia University | SIPA
Two former U.S. energy secretaries agreed on almost everything at a joint appearance Wednesday, including the opportunity to tell Germany ‘I told you so.’
Trump’s second energy secretary, Dan Brouillette, brought up Germany right off the bat at Columbia University’s Global Energy Summit in New York.
“We felt very strongly that Germany had become too dependent on one source of gas supplier—i.e., Russia. Gazprom,” said Brouillette, who held several lobbying jobs and congressional staff jobs before helming the Energy Dept. from 2019-21.
“We tried to make the point. They disagreed with us, and that was their right to do so. But today I’m watching Germany take some very dramatic steps to broaden out their energy supply, if you will, to diversify their portfolio overall.”
Ernest Moniz, the Nobel-Prize winning physicist who served as President Obama’s second energy secretary from 2013-2017, made sure Brouillette understood that Germany had heard that warning before.
“Along the lines of what Dan said, in fact, the rather stern lectures to our German colleagues about the bad hygiene of their energy security situation predated your administration,” Moniz said.
“I can recall the heavy perspiration of the German ambassador in my office, for example. So this has been a consistent theme across administrations that the German situation just wasn’t healthy, and unfortunately it’s come back to bite them and all of us frankly.”
Germany famously shut down its nuclear reactors after the 2011 Fukushima Disaster and invested heavily in renewables, which helped make solar-photovoltaic the cheapest energy technology for the world. But Germany counted on Russian natural gas as a bridge fuel for the transition. Since Russia invaded Ukraine, Germany and the rest of Europe have seen that supply squeezed, threatened, and sabotaged. Energy prices have soared globally, but particularly in Europe.
According to Moniz, Germany did an excellent job envisioning a clean-energy economy in 2050, but a poor job managing the 30-year transition to arrive there, which—he agreed with Brouillette—will require traditional fuels, such as fossil fuels and nuclear.
Trump’s lobbyist and Obama’s physicist agreed on most things: on the need for a diverse portfolio of energy sources, on the recognition that energy security and environmental security go hand in hand, on the collective responsibility among nations to manage energy security, and on almost everything else:
Brouillette: “We don’t disagree as much as you might think. Ernie was instrumental in creating the export of LNG (liquified natural gas) and creating those policies that allowed us to produce more here in the United States. It created a global market for U.S. natural gas.”
Moniz: “It’s true that we did most of the approval of licenses for export.”
But then Brouillette crossed a bridge too far:
Brouillette: “As we think about transition I don’t think we should think about it as one fuel source completely replacing the other.
“If you think about human nature, if you think about humanity from whatever time period that you want, the transition has never been from one type of fuel to another…. The transition, if you will, has always been from less energy to more energy. That’s been the transition of humankind, that’s where we need to continue to go, and yes within the portfolio sometimes things will change. We’ll use less coal than we did, say, 50 years ago, as part of the portfolio, but it will always be additive. We will always be adding more energy, because that’s what society needs. It’s what economies grow on. It’s what populations are going to demand.”
Moniz: “I’m sorry. I’m going to have to now finally disagree with my colleague. The additive comment has got to be parsed by level of development of economies. So the industrialized world, yeah, we may have some increase in energy use, but not material, the way that you were describing, all the new fuels being additive.
“And in fact, that’s another reason why in the industrialized world we are facing a more difficult challenge in the sense that there’s going to have to be a lot of displacement of incumbent fuels and technologies going forward.”
The EU’s energy crisis response is getting bigger, slowly. But so, too, is the threat posed by Russia’s freeze on Europe’s gas supply.
A new package of measures to bring down the price of gas and protect consumers this winter and beyond — including plans to fully leverage the EU’s collective buying power — will be formally proposed by the European Commission next week.
But there remains uncertainty about key aspects of the package — including whether the preferred intervention of many countries, an EU-wide cap on gas prices, will be part of it, and if so, in what form. It could also take until November to get next week’s proposals fully signed off and operational, officials said.
Even as energy ministers deliberated over the measures in Prague on Wednesday, Russia issued new, veiled warnings about the depths of Europe’s vulnerability.
Speaking at an energy conference in Moscow, the head of Gazprom Alexey Miller warned European homes could still freeze this winter even though EU countries have nearly filled their gas storage capacity.
At the same event, Vladimir Putin discussed the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines — an act that many Western governments suspect was the work of Russia. Then he added pointedly that the incident had shown how “any critical infrastructure in transport, energy or communication infrastructure is under threat — regardless of what part of the world it is located, by whom it is controlled, laid on the seabed or on land.”
Noting that one of the pipelines is still potentially operational after the attack, Putin insisted Russia was ready to send gas through it to ease Europe’s pain this winter — bringing his overarching strategy of gas blackmail against Europe right up to date.
“The ball, as they say, is on the side of the European Union. If they want it, let them just open the tap,” Putin said. “We are ready to supply additional volumes in the autumn-winter period.”
Putin may still be hoping that when the reality of winter without Russian gas begins to bite, European governments will be more open to such overtures — and more willing to rein in support for Ukraine in exchange for an energy lifeline.
For the EU’s part, Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson was clear that while the bloc faced “difficult times,” countries would withstand the challenges ahead if they “act together, decisively and in solidarity.”
Speaking at the close of an informal summit of EU energy ministers on Wednesday, she added that the next crisis package will also contain a proposal for a new benchmark price for gas and further measures to reduce demand across the bloc.
But while a row over capping the price of gas has dominated the debate in recent weeks, momentum has shifted to the idea of joint purchasing on the international market. It is hoped that through this measure the bloc can avoid the situation seen this year when member states outbid one another for supplies when filling gas storage facilities — driving up the price for all.
European Commissioner for Energy Kadri Simson | John Thys/AFP via Getty Images
In an informal policy paper issued on Wednesday, Germany and the Netherlands set how such a measure could work, by beefing up the existing EU Energy Platform, which was established months ago but then barely used. Efforts to buy gas jointly should be coupled with better EU-wide coordination of gas storage next year, the German and Dutch paper said.
The proposals point to the extent to which the EU is no longer simply planning how to survive this winter without rolling blackouts. It’s now firmly planning for a crisis next winter too.
Executive Director of the International Energy Agency Fatih Birol, who also attended Wednesday’s summit in Prague, warned ministers that “the next winter may well be even more difficult.”
That message was echoed in a sobering briefing from the EU Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators, which outlined how challenging 2023 and potentially 2024 could be for the bloc’s energy supply. Amid an expected surge in demand in Asia for liquefied natural gas (LNG), the EU will face greater competition for limited LNG supplies from sources such as the U.S. and Qatar.
In short, every molecule of gas that remains in European storage after this winter might be vital — and Vladimir Putin knows it.
Victor Jack and America Hernandez provided additional reporting.
Climate scientists described the shocking images of gas spewing to the surface of the Baltic Sea as a “reckless release” of greenhouse gas emissions that, if deliberate, “amounts to an environmental crime.”
Anadolu Agency | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images
Two subsea pipelines connecting Russia to Germany are at the center of international intrigue after a series of blasts caused what might be the single largest release of methane in history — and many suspect it was the result of an attack.
An initial crime scene investigation last week into what caused the gas leaks on the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines reinforced suspicions of “gross sabotage.”
As investigations continue, many in Europe suspect the incident was the result of an attack, particularly as it occurred during a bitter energy standoff between the European Union and Russia.
On Sept. 26, a flurry of detonations on two underwater pipelines connecting Russia to Germany sent gas spewing to the surface of the Baltic Sea. The explosions triggered four gas leaks at four locations — two in Denmark’s exclusive economic zone and two in Sweden’s exclusive economic zone.
The magnitude of those explosions was measured at 2.3 and 2.1 on the Richter scale, respectively, Swedish and Danish authorities said, and likely corresponded to an explosive load of “several hundred kilos.”
Neither of the Nord Stream pipelines was transporting gas at the time of the blasts, although they both contained pressurized methane — a potent greenhouse gas.
Remarkably, the signature of the gas bubbling at the surface of the Baltic Sea could be seen from space.
A satellite image of the Nord Stream leak in the Baltic Sea, captured on Sept. 26, 2022.
Planet
Climate scientists described the shocking images of the methane erupting from the burst as a “reckless release” of greenhouse gas emissions that, if deliberate, “amounts to an environmental crime.”
At the time, Denmark’s armed forces said video footage showed the largest gas leak created a surface disturbance of roughly 1 kilometer (0.62 miles) in diameter, while the smallest leak caused a circle of approximately 200 meters.
The Nord Stream gas pipelines have become a focal point of tensions between Russia and Europe in recent months, with Moscow accused of weaponizing gas supplies in a bid to gain sanctions relief amid its onslaught in Ukraine.
Sweden’s national security service said Thursday that detonations caused “extensive damage” to the pipelines and “strengthened suspicions of gross sabotage.”
Sweden’s Security Service said certain seizures had been made, without offering further details, and that these would now be reviewed and analyzed.
“The continued preliminary investigation must show whether someone can be served with suspicion and later prosecuted,” Sweden’s Security Service said.
Sweden’s prosecutor’s office said in a separate statement that the area was no longer cordoned off.
The European Union has warned that any deliberate attack on European energy infrastructure would be met with the “strongest possible response,” calling what it suspects is an intentional attack “utterly unacceptable.”
U.S. President Joe Biden described the blasts on the Nord Stream pipelines as a “deliberate act of sabotage” late last month, saying Washington was working with its allies to work out exactly what happened.
Fatih Birol, the executive director of the International Energy Agency, said at a conference in Paris last month that it was “very obvious” who was responsible for the gas leaks, Reuters reported. He did not say who that was, however.
Russia has denied it was responsible for the gas leaks. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said at a briefing on Thursday that such claims were “absurd,” according to Tass news agency.
Zakharova emphasized the “enormous investment” that the Kremlin took in the infrastructure project and lashed out at the West for blocking Moscow from taking part in the investigations.
The unexplained Nord Stream gas leaks pose serious questions about the incident’s environmental impact.
Climate scientists acknowledged in the aftermath of the event that it was hard to accurately quantify the exact size of the emissions and said the leaks are a “wee bubble in the ocean” compared with the massive amounts of methane emitted around the world every day.
“It was a deliberate act and in my opinion it can very likely be linked to the push for constant provocation by the Kremlin,” Spanish Energy Minister Teresa Ribera told reporters last month, according to Reuters.
Europa Press News | Europa Press | Getty Images
The two Nord Stream pipelines were estimated to have contained enough gas to release 300,000 tons of methane — more than twice the amount released by the 2015 Aliso Canyon leak in California, the largest known release of methane in U.S. history.
While that means it could be one of the largest single releases of methane, the incident pales in comparison with the roughly 70 million tons of methane emitted by the oil and gas industry each year.
The European Space Agency estimated that the emissions leak from the Nord Stream gas pipelines was roughly equivalent to one and a half days of global methane emissions.
Nonetheless, environmental campaigners argued the incident serves as yet another reminder of the risks associated with fossil fuel infrastructure.
— CNBC’s Emma Newburger contributed to this report.
Union Minister for Finance & Corporate Affairs Nirmala Sitharaman will visit USA on October 11, 2022. During her visit, Sitharaman will attend the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governor (FMCBG) Meetings.
The Finance Minister will take part in bilateral meetings with countries like Japan, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Australia, Bhutan, New Zealand, Egypt, Germany, Mauritius, UAE, Iran and Netherlands. She will hold one-on-one meetings with leaders & heads of OECD, European Commission and UNDP. The Finance Minister is also scheduled to meet the US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and David Malpass, President, World Bank separately to discuss issues of mutual interest.
Sitharaman will deliberate on the multiplier effects created in India through the interlinkages of ‘Technology, Finance and Governance’ at the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), John Hopkins University during the visit.
“During the latter part of the visit, the Union Finance Minister will attend roundtable meetings with USIBC and USISPF on themes to ‘Strengthen Investment and Innovation in India-US Corridor’ and “Investing in India’s Digital Revolution”. These meetings are aimed at showcasing India’s attractiveness as an investment destination and will have the participation of leading business leaders and investors,” the Finance Ministry stated.
BERLIN — A train communications system in Germany was targeted by sabotage Saturday, forcing both passenger and cargo trains to halt for nearly three hours across the northwest of the country, authorities said.
Operator Deutsche Bahn said early Saturday that no long-distance or regional trains were running in the states of Hamburg, Schleswig-Holstein, Lower Saxony and Bremen. That also affected trains between Berlin and Cologne, neither of which was directly affected by the system failure, and between Berlin and Amsterdam, while trains from Denmark weren’t crossing the border into Germany.
The sabotage hit a primary mode of regional and intercity transport in Germany as well as disrupting supply lines for industries using cargo trains.
After the nearly three-hour suspension, Deutsche Bahn said the problem — a “failure of the digital train radio system” — had been resolved but that some disruptions could still be expected. It later said the outage was caused by sabotage.
Transport Minister Volker Wissing said cables that are “essential for handling railway traffic safely” were deliberately severed at two separate locations. He said Germany’s federal police were investigating the incident.
Federal police said the crime scenes were in a Berlin suburb and in the western state of North Rhine-Westphalia, German news agency dpa reported. There was no immediate word on who might have been responsible.
“We can’t say anything today either about the background to this act or the perpetrators,” Wissing said. “The investigation will have to yield that.”
BERLIN — A train communications system in Germany was targeted by sabotage Saturday, forcing both passenger and cargo trains to halt for nearly three hours across the northwest of the country, authorities said.
Operator Deutsche Bahn said early Saturday that no long-distance or regional trains were running in the states of Hamburg, Schleswig-Holstein, Lower Saxony and Bremen. That also affected trains between Berlin and Cologne, neither of which was directly affected by the system failure, and between Berlin and Amsterdam, while trains from Denmark weren’t crossing the border into Germany.
The sabotage hit a primary mode of regional and intercity transport in Germany as well as disrupting supply lines for industries using cargo trains.
After the nearly three-hour suspension, Deutsche Bahn said the problem — a “failure of the digital train radio system” — had been resolved but that some disruptions could still be expected. It later said the outage was caused by sabotage.
Transport Minister Volker Wissing said cables that are “essential for handling railway traffic safely” were deliberately severed at two separate locations. He said Germany’s federal police were investigating the incident.
Federal police said the crime scenes were in a Berlin suburb and in the western state of North Rhine-Westphalia, German news agency dpa reported. There was no immediate word on who might have been responsible.
“We can’t say anything today either about the background to this act or the perpetrators,” Wissing said. “The investigation will have to yield that.”
Munich Re, one of the world’s biggest insurance companies, says it will stop backing new oil and gas fields beginning next April
BERLIN — Munich Re, one of the world’s biggest insurance companies, said Thursday that it will stop backing new oil and gas fields beginning next April.
The company said it will also no longer invest in or insure new oil pipelines and power plants that weren’t already under construction by Dec. 31, 2022.
Munich Re said the moves were part of its effort to reduce the harmful impact its business has on the environment. The burning of oil and gas is one of the main sources of greenhouses gases fueling climate change.
Munich Re provides so-called reinsurance contracts that help other insurers spread risks. It also invests the insurance premiums it receives from customers and third-party assets, making it a major institutional investor.
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Follow all AP stories on climate change issues at https://apnews.com/hub/climate-and-environment.
LEIPZIG, Germany (AP) — Swedish scientist Svante Paabo won the Nobel Prize in medicine Monday for discoveries in human evolution that unlocked secrets of Neanderthal DNA that helped us understand what makes humans unique and provided key insights into our immune system, including our vulnerability to severe COVID-19.
Techniques that Paabo spearheaded allowed researchers to compare the genome of modern humans and that of other hominins — the Denisovans as well as Neanderthals.
“Just as you do an archeological excavation to find out about the past, we sort of make excavations in the human genome,” he said at a news conference held by Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology in Leipzig.
While Neanderthal bones were first discovered in the mid-19th century, only by understanding their DNA — often referred to as the code of life — have scientists been able to fully understand the links between species.
This included the time when modern humans and Neanderthals diverged as a species, around 800,000 years ago.
“Paabo and his team also surprisingly found that gene flow had occurred from Neanderthals to Homo sapiens, demonstrating that they had children together during periods of co-existence,” said Anna Wedell, chair of the Nobel Committee.
This transfer of genes between hominin species affects how the immune system of modern humans reacts to infections, such as the coronavirus. People outside Africa have 1-2% of Neanderthal genes. Neanderthals were never in Africa, so there’s no known direct contribution to people in sub-Saharan Africa.
Paabo and his team managed to extract DNA from a tiny finger bone found in a cave in Siberia, leading to the recognition of a new species of ancient humans they called Denisovans.
Wedell called it “a sensational discovery” that showed Neanderthals and Denisovans were sister groups that split from each other around 600,000 years ago. Denisovan genes have been found in up to 6% of modern humans in Asia and Southeast Asia, indicating interbreeding occurred there too.
“By mixing with them after migrating out of Africa, Homo sapiens picked up sequences that improved their chances to survive in their new environments,” Wedell said. For example, Tibetans share a gene with Denisovans that helps them adapt to high altitude.
Paabo said he was surprised to learn of his win, and at first thought it was an elaborate prank by colleagues or a call about his summer home in Sweden.
“So I was just gulping down the last cup of tea to go and pick up my daughter at her nanny where she has had an overnight stay, and then I got this call from Sweden,” he said in an interview on the Nobel Prizes homepage. “I thought, ‘Oh the lawn mower’s broken down or something’” at the summer home.
He also mused about what would have happened if Neanderthals had survived another 40,000 years.
“Would we see even worse racism against Neanderthals, because they were really in some sense different from us? Or would we actually see our place in the living world quite in a different way when we would have other forms of humans there that are very like us but still different,” he said.
Paabo, 67, performed his prizewinning studies at the University of Munich and at the Max Planck Institute. During the celebrations after the news conference in Leipzig, colleagues threw him into a pool of water. Paabo took it with humor, splashing his feet and laughing.
Paabo’s father, Sune Bergstrom, won the Nobel prize in medicine in 1982, the eighth time the son or daughter of a laureate also won a Nobel Prize. In his book “Neanderthal Man: In Search of Lost Genomes,” Paabo described himself as Bergstrom’s “secret extramarital son” — something he also mentioned briefly on Monday.
He father took a “big interest” in his work, he said, but it was his mother who most encouraged him.
“The biggest influence in my life was for sure my mother, with whom I grew up,” he said in the Nobel interview. “And in some sense it makes me a bit sad that she can’t experience this day. She sort of was very much into science, and very much stimulated and encouraged me through the years.”
Scientists in the field lauded the Nobel Committee’s choice.
David Reich, a geneticist at Harvard Medical School, said he was thrilled, fearing the field of ancient DNA might “fall between the cracks.”
By recognizing that DNA can be preserved for tens of thousands of years — and developing ways to extract it — Paabo and his team created a completely new way to answer questions about our past, said Reich, who is paid by the Howard Hughes Medical Institute, which also supports The Associated Press’ Health and Science Department.
Dr. Eric Green, director of the National Human Genome Research Institute at the U.S. National Institutes of Health, called it “a great day for genomics,” a relatively young field first named in 1987.
The Human Genome project, which ran from 1990-2003, “got us the first sequence of the human genome, and we’ve improved that sequence ever since,” Green said.
When you sequence DNA from an ancient fossil, you only have “vanishingly small amounts,” Green said. Among Paabo’s innovations was figuring out methods for extracting and preserving these tiny amounts. He was then able to lay pieces of the Neanderthal genome sequence against the sequencing of the Human Genome Project.
Paabo’s team published the first draft of a Neanderthal genome in 2009, and sequenced more than 60% of the full genome from a small sample of bone, after contending with decay and contamination from bacteria.
“We should always be proud of the fact that we sequenced our genome. But the idea that we can go back in time and sequence the genome that doesn’t live anymore and something that’s a direct relative of humans is truly remarkable,” Green said.
Paabo said they discovered during the pandemic that “the greatest risk factor to become severely ill and even die when you’re infected with the virus has come over to modern people from Neanderthals. So we and others are now intensely studying the Neanderthal version versus the protective modern version to try to understand what the functional difference would be.”
Nobel Prize announcements continue Tuesday with the physics prize, chemistry on Wednesday and literature on Thursday. The Nobel Peace Prize will be announced Friday and the economics award on Oct. 10.
The prizes carry a cash award of 10 million Swedish kronor (nearly $900,000) and will be handed out on Dec. 10. The money comes from a bequest left by the prize’s creator, Swedish inventor Alfred Nobel, who died in 1895.
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Ungar reported from Louisville, Kentucky. Frank Jordans contributed from Berlin; David Keyton from Stockholm, Sweden, and Maddie Burakoff from New York.
The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Department of Science Education. The AP is solely responsible for all content.
International travel may still have its challenges.
But finding a solid hotel for a business trip isn’t one of them.
CNBC Travel and the market data firm Statista today release aranking of the “Best Hotels for Business Travelers” in Europe.
This is the first ranking of its kind between CNBC and Statista, who are also releasing hotel rankings in the Middle East today. Asia-Pacific rankings were published in September.
In total, we analyzed more than 10,000 four- and five-star hotels in 117 locations to produce lists corporate travelers can trust. We did this using a three-step process:
Asking business travelers and hotel industry professionals to answer a CNBC reader survey which ran from May 3 to June 7, 2022.
Reviewing more than 1 million hotel data points, which included objective information (location, business facilities, food, leisure activities and room characteristics) and subjective reviews (gathered from Google, TripAdvisor, Expedia and similar websites).
Weighting the data to prioritize the hotel characteristics deemed most important in the reader survey.
For full details about our research methodology, click here.
Canal House Suites at Sofitel Legend The Grand Amsterdam
Hotel Okura Amsterdam
Sofitel Legend The Grand Amsterdam
Conservatorium Hotel
Waldorf Astoria Amsterdam
Source: Waldorf Astoria Amsterdam
The Waldorf Astoria Amsterdam tied for the highest scores for customer reviews among Europe’s largest financial centers, a distinction it shared with Rome’s Villa Spalletti Trivelli. Travelers rave about the canal-side location, but they say it’s the smaller points — the turndown service, fresh tulips in the room, the luxurious bedding — that make it one of Amsterdam’s finest hotels.
In a city with ample competition from major hotel brands, the owner-run Louisa’s Place — named after Queen Louise of Prussia — topped our list. Built around 1900, the boutique hotel in West Berlin has 47 spacious rooms, each with high ceilings and separate bedrooms.
Steigenberger Wiltcher’s location on the prestigious Avenue Louise — and its style, aptly described as “luxurious simplicity” — make it a favorite with business travelers in Belgium. Travelers can take an online tour of the hotel before visiting, virtually walking the hallways to peer into its restaurants and ballrooms.
Charlottehaven has hotel apartments in two areas — the larger units in the “Garden” and the newer apartments in the “Tower” which have 180-degree views of the city. The hotel combines kitchens, laundry areas and other comforts of a house with the amenities of a hotel. Nearby metro and train stations make it easy to commute around the city too.
Scoring 3.78 (out of a possible 4 points), the five-star Merrion hotel in the center of Dublin tied for the second highest overall score in Europe. Its 142 rooms and suites are inside four restored Georgian townhouses dating to the 1760s. There’s also a two-star Michelin restaurant — Ireland’s first — plus two bars, a spa and six meeting spaces.
The Sofitel Frankfurt Opera is on Opera Square, or the Opernplatz, near the city’s famed opera house. In addition to its central location, the hotel wins over business travelers for the small touches that make for seamless stays: complimentary car valets and minibar beverages, 24-hour room service and stylish rooms outfitted with Illy espresso machines and Bose sound systems.
Marble bathrooms, down pillows and balconettes with unobstructed views of Lake Geneva — these are some of the reasons the Four Seasons Hotel des Bergues Geneva consistently ranks among the city’s most luxurious places to stay. Business travelers can take meetings to the next level with private tours of the nearby Patek Philippe Museum or helicopter tours over Mont Blanc — with all details organized by the hotel.
The Langham London is a U.K. institution. It’s got a West End location, restaurants helmed by the two-Michelin starred chef Michel Roux Jr., and a bar, Artesian, that was named the world’s best four times in a row. Travelers who book executive rooms or higher get access to The Langham Club, which comes with perks like private check-ins, pressing services, all-day dining options and private meeting spaces.
It’s rare for a small property to outrank major hospitality companies, but Gran Hotel Ingles has done exactly that. “Pure luxury” is how the 48-room hotel is described by travelers, from its sleek interior to its cocktail weekend events accompanied by live music. Opened in 1886, the hotel is said to be Madrid’s oldest.
The website for Hotel Viu Milan leads off — not with its rooms or restaurants — but with one word: bleisure. That’s because this hotel is serious about blending business stays with relaxation: morning yoga on the terrace, aperitives after work and dinner at the on-site restaurant Morelli, helmed by the Italian Michelin-starred chef Giancarlo Morelli.
The Thief Hotel on Tjuvholmen, or “Thief Islet,” takes its name from its seedy past as a hotbed of criminals. Now it’s an upmarket neighborhood known for art and architecture. Art features prominently in the hotel too, as do designer furniture and upmarket Nordic cuisine.
The historic Hotel de la Ville, next to the Spanish Steps, is a Rocco Forte Hotel — a company bearing the name of one of Italy’s most famous hotelier families. Business travelers love its rooftop bar and central courtyard, but it’s the concierge — known to help with insider tips and hard-to-book restaurant reservations — that gives the hotel the edge in Italy’s capital city.
Guests of Le Bristol Paris can count President Emmanuel Macron as a neighbor — Elysee Palace, the official residence of France’s president — is just steps away. From white-gloved service to its three-Michelin-starred restaurant Epicure, the hotel is the height of Parisian elegance and culinary excellence.
Tying for No. 2 in overall points with Dublin’s The Merrion, the stylish Grand Hotel Stockholm secured the top score for its amenities and facilities, not only in Sweden, but in all of Europe. Its waterfront location is bolstered by four restaurants, a champagne bar, spa and gym, the latter with personal trainers. Room service is available round the clock for those with late-night work to complete.
This grand hotel built in 1845 is the former home of Austrian royalty. The all-suite boutique hotel has a restaurant with two Michelin stars and a wine cellar that is said to house some 60,000 bottles of wine.
The Dolder Grand may have opened in 1899, but this hotel outside of Zurich’s city center has an almost futuristic feel. The interior features works by Salvador Dali and Jean Tinguely, and it has a two-Michelin starred restaurant and a 4,000-square-foot spa. From royalty to rock legends, former guests include King Charles and The Rolling Stones.
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Shanghai, Mumbai, Melbourne and beyond: CNBC names the best Asia-Pacific hotels for business travel
European far-right politicians just stormed to victory in Italy, after achieving historic results in France and Sweden.
“Everywhere in Europe, people aspire to take their destiny back into their own hands!” said Marine Le Pen, the leader of France’s far-right National Rally Party.
But if you think there is a new wave of right-wing radicalism sweeping Europe, you’d be wrong. Something else is going on.
Analysis by POLITICO’s Poll of Polls suggests far-right parties in the region on average did not increase their support by even one percentage point between the start of Russia’s invasion in Ukraine in February and today.
POLITICO looked at the median and average increase of all parties organized in right-wing European Parliament groups of Identity and Democracy, the European Conservatives and Reformists or unaffiliated parties with political far-right positions.
Overall, the results indicate that if an increase in support occurred for far-right parties, it happened several years ago.
The Sweden Democrats’ first surge happened after the 2014 election, when the party grew from around 10 percent to 20 percent, the same one-fifth share of the vote they received in this year’s election. The far-right Alternative for Germany AfD in Germany grew fast in 2015 and 2016 reaching 14 percent in POLITICO’s polling tracker. In Italy, the Northern League overtook Forza Italia for the first time in early 2015, and peaked in 2019 at 37 percent before starting a downward trend ending on 9 percent in last month’s election. In the Italian election, voters mostly switched between rival right-wing camps.
The far-right has moved from the fringes of politics into the mainstream, not only influencing the political center but also entering the arena of power.
“There is a normalization of far-right parties as an integral part of the political landscape,” said Cathrine Thorleifsson, who researches extremism at the University of Oslo. “They have been accepted by the electorate and also by other, conventional parties.”
Cooperation between the center-right and the extreme-right has become less taboo.
“The rise of far-right parties is only part of the story. The facilitating and mainstreaming of far-right parties as well as the adoption of far-right frames and positions by other parties is at least as important,” tweeted Cas Mudde, a leading scholar on the issue.
This may risk destabilizing Europe even more than winning a couple of percentage points in the polls.
Italy’s far-right firebrand Giorgia Meloni is a clear-cut example. While her party draws its origin from groups founded by former fascists, she’ll now lead the EU’s third-largest economy.
Leader of Italian far-right party “Fratelli d’Italia” (Brothers of Italy), Giorgia Meloni | Pitro Cruciatti/AFP via Getty Images
In Sweden, the center-right party has started coalition talks for a minority government which would have to draw on opposition support, most likely from the far-right Swedish Democrats. Far-right parties have also entered governments in Austria, Finland, Estonia and Italy. Other countries are likely to follow.
George Simion, the leader of Romania’s far-right party, Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), celebrated Meloni’s win in Italy, saying his party is likely to follow in their footsteps.
Spain heads to the ballot box next year and socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez may have a tough time winning re-election. The conservative People’s Party is between five and seven points ahead of the Spanish socialists in all the published polls, but it is unlikely to garner enough votes to secure a governing majority outright.
That means it may have to come to an agreement with far-right party Vox, whose leader, Santiago Abascal, is an ally of Meloni’s. While the People’s Party previously refused to govern with Vox, last spring its newly elected leader, Alberto Núnez-Feijóo, greenlit a coalition agreement with the ultranationalist group in Spain’s central Castilla y León region.
Tom Van Grieken, the right-wing Belgian politician, also pointed to Spain as the next likely example, especially because of the possible cooperation with the PP. “All over Europe, we see conservative parties who are considering breaking the cordon sanitaire,” he said, referring to the refusal of other parties to work with the far-right. “They are tired of compromising with their ideological counterparts, the parties at the left end of the spectrum.”
Chairman of Vlaams Belang party Tom Van Grieken | Stephanie Le Coqc/EFE via EPA
This didn’t happen overnight. The far-right worked hard to shrug off their extremist, neo-Nazi image.
“In some of the reporting on the Swedish Democrats, you’d think they’ll deport people on trains as soon as they’re in power. Come on, these parties have changed,” said one EU official with right-wing affiliations.
The far-right invested in “image adjustment and trying to tread carefully with some issues, while unashamedly catering to others,” said Nina Wiesehomeier, a political scientist at the IE University of Madrid. “This is particularly obvious in Italy right now, with Meloni sticking to the slogan of ‘God, homeland, family,’ as a continuation, while having tried to purge the party from more radical elements.”
In Belgium’s northern region of Flanders, the right-wing Vlaams Belang (Flemish Interest) explicitly dismisses the label “extreme-right.” Just like his counterparts in Italy, Sweden and France, Van Grieken, the party’s president, denounced the more extremist positions of his group’s founding fathers and moderated his political message to make voting for the far-right socially acceptable.
Overt racism is taboo. Instead, the rhetoric changes to criticizing an open-door migration policy. By carefully catering to centrist voters, the far-right aims for a bigger slice of the cake, while still riding on the anti-establishment discontent.
“There is a clear fault line between the winners of globalization and the nationalists,” Van Grieken told POLITICO. “This comes on top on the concerns about mass migration, whether it’s in Malmö, Rome or other European cities.”
Perfect storm
Now, the time is right to capitalize on that transformation.
As Europe is battling record inflation and Europeans fear exorbitant heating bills, governments warn about the political implications of a “winter of discontent.”
“It’s a massive drainage of European prosperity,” Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo told POLITICO recently. “In the current situation, it’s hard to believe in progress, it’s very hard to make progress. So there’s a very pessimistic feeling.”
The current war in Ukraine is the latest in a succession of crises — in global finance, migration and the pandemic. Experts argue that this is key to understanding the rising support for the far-right.
“Such existential crises have a destabilizing effect and lead to fear,” said Carl Devos, a professor in political science at Ghent University. “Fear is the breeding ground for the far-right. People tend to translate that fear and outrage into radical voting behaviour.”
Migration and identity politics are less prominent in the media because of the Ukraine war and rising energy prices, but they’re still key issues in right-wing debate.
In Austria, the coalition parties fought over whether or not asylum seekers should receive climate bonuses. In the Netherlands, the death of a baby at the asylum center Ter Apel led to a renewed debate over the overcrowded migration centers.
The combination of those issues is likely to feed into more right-wing wins across the continent. “The far-right offers nationalist, protectionist solutions to the globalized crises, said Thorleifsson. “We see how the migration issue was momentarily off the agenda during the pandemic, but now it’s back.”
Aitor Hernández-Morales, Camille Gijs and Ana Fota contributed reporting.
