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  • The story of the First World War Christmas truce: How much football was actually played?

    The story of the First World War Christmas truce: How much football was actually played?

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    It’s one of the best-known stories about the First World War: the Christmas truce of 1914, when soldiers from both sides spontaneously laid down their guns and, for a few hours at least, acted as if they weren’t trying to wipe each other out in a cruelly pointless war.

    Part of the story was the football match that broke out in No Man’s land. The image of the two sides uniting, in a manner of speaking, over the common language of sport became incredibly evocative, a slice of normality amidst the horror.

    It’s gone down in English mythology, encouraged by appearances in various elements of culture, from art to history books to things such as the TV comedy Blackadder. “Remember it? I was never offside, I could not believe that decision…” the titular character says when asked if he recalled the match.

    It’s certainly a fantastic image: a ball emerging from somewhere, a pitch being marked out between bits of barbed wire, an elderly colonel — probably with a preposterous moustache — being appointed referee, Mausers for goalposts.

    The trouble is, while the story of the Christmas football match isn’t quite a myth, it didn’t actually happen like that.


    What is true is that there was a truce. On the morning of Christmas Day, 1914 — the war only six months old at that point but already bloody and horrific — there was a brief and unofficial halt to hostilities, and soldiers from both sides met in No Man’s Land. That in itself is a pretty extraordinary thing; that the two sides even contemplated emerging from their trenches when usually just a mere peek over the top was an invitation to be shot at.


    British and German officers meeting on December 25, 1914 (Daily Mirror/Mirrorpix/Mirrorpix via Getty Images)

    There are assorted stories about how it happened, but the most commonly accepted version of events is along the lines of that described by Private Leslie Walkinton, as quoted in Anthony Richards’ book The True Story of the Christmas Truce.

    ‘On Christmas Eve we’d been singing carols… the Germans had been doing the same. And we’d been shouting to each other, sometimes rude remarks, more often just joking remarks. Eventually, a German said, ‘Tomorrow you no shoot, we no shoot.’ The morning came and we didn’t shoot and they didn’t shoot and so then we began to pop our heads over the side and jump down quickly in case they shot, but they didn’t shoot.

    ‘And then we saw a German standing up waving his arms… it gradually grew and eventually several people were walking about and nobody was shooting. After a time some bold people walked out in front of their barbed wire entanglement and finally an Englishman and a German met halfway across No Man’s Land and they shook hands and laughed and joked and waved to their companions to join them.’

    The soldiers met and talked, and exchanged rations — cigarettes, bits of cake, any small luxuries that they had managed to keep in their trenches. There was even a report of a German soldier getting a haircut from an English counterpart. There was a language barrier in some instances but many of the Germans spoke pretty good English. A spirit of genuine bonhomie seemed to form, albeit laced with some suspicion that it was all just a cunning ruse to get the enemy out into open land. Some of the British soldiers used the opportunity to sneak a peek at the German trenches, which were much better appointed than their own.


    British soldiers in a Flanders trench in October 1914 (Hulton Archive/Getty Images)

    At this point it’s worth pointing out that the ‘Christmas Truce’ wasn’t one big organised thing, but actually a series of ‘mini truces’, dotted along the front lines. “You had one area where the soldiers were out fraternising, then a few hundred yards away they were still shooting at each other,” says Richards, head of documents and sound at the Imperial War Museum in London. Most of these were on the French-Belgian border, around towns like Ypres and Messines.

    And this is where the football comes in. Alas, the idea that one big, organised game took place is simply inaccurate, and many historians get quite prickly at its erroneous prominence in the story of the Great War.

    “It’s almost become part of the shorthand of describing the First World War,” says Richards. “People think of football, of poppies, of war poets and so on. Although all those things are important, they’re not really what it was like.”

    What does seem to be the case though, is that several smaller, much less formalised ‘kickabouts’ took place in various parts of No Man’s Land, which may explain the widely varying accounts of football and its role in the truce.

    “From somewhere, somehow, this football appeared,” said Ernie Williams, a 19-year-old English soldier who was in the trenches near Messines, now called Mesen, in Belgium. “It came from their side… they made goals and one fellow went in goal and then it was just a general kickabout.

    “I should think there would be at least about a couple of hundred (taking part). I had a go at it. I was pretty good then, at 19. It was a proper football but we didn’t form a team, it wasn’t a team game in any sense of the word, it was like how I learned my football in Hill Gate streets… you know, it was a kickabout, everybody was having a go. There was no score, no tally at all. It was simply a melee.”

    Other accounts suggested the ball came from the English side. “Suddenly, a Tommy came with a football, kicking already and making fun, and then began a football match,” wrote Lieutenant Johannes Niemann of the 133rd Saxon Infantry Regiment. “We marked the goals with our caps. Teams were quickly established for a match on the frozen mud, and the Fritzes beat the Tommies 3-2.”

    And still others said there wasn’t really a ‘ball’ at all. “We tied a sandbag up, an empty sandbag, we tied it up with itself in string and kicked it about on top,” said George Ashurst, while a letter to the Guardian, published on 31 December 1914, said some soldiers kicked a “bully beef tin” about instead of an actual football. Other accounts suggested that a game was proposed by one side or the other, but was turned down.

    Another interesting development came some 110 years later and suggests that football was prevalent at other times of the war. The painting ‘Gassed’, by John Singer Sargent and commissioned towards the end of the conflict, ostensibly depicts a group of soldiers suffering from the aftereffects of mustard gas.

    It recently underwent some conservation work which revealed a few men playing football in the background. It’s not known if this reflected an actual scene that Sargent witnessed, or was simply a depiction of war-time events and possibly inspired by the stories of the Truce, but it’s fascinating nonetheless. The painting is available to view in a new gallery at the Imperial War Museum.


    (Image: Imperial War Museum)

    Several statues and memorials have been established to remember football’s role in the truce. There’s one at the National Memorial Arboretum in Staffordshire. One has been on a bit of a tour: it was initially placed outside St Luke’s Church in Liverpool, then was outside Goodison Park for a spell and eventually made its way to Mesen, near where one of the games was said to have taken place. A commemorative match was staged in 2014, between teams from the British and German armies.

    It is, of course, extremely difficult to verify any of the stories for sure. Many accounts were given years later and could be compromised by time and the psychological horror of the conflict. There are no photographs; one famous image of soldiers playing football has been incorrectly attributed to the 1914 truce but, in reality, it depicts servicemen playing somewhere in Greece, a year later.

    But there are enough different reports to suggest there is some veracity to the tale. At the very least, we can be confident that there were some games, informal though they may have been, that took place that Christmas Day.

    “The way to understand the football is that these guys were living in trenches,” says Richards, “and the truce gave them the opportunity to get out and run around, which was a huge novelty. If you were a young working-class soldier, that would have been the natural thing to do. You just kick a football, run around and have a laugh.”

    It’s worth emphasising that these soldiers — mostly young, working-class men, sent to die in a war of uncertain purpose — were essentially living in hell. Their trenches were mostly just mud, riddled with disease, and if they raised their head out of the mud they had a pretty good chance of being shot. A brief moment of respite, through talking in the open air to fraternise with their theoretical enemies, or kicking a football around for a bit, was just a small hint at normalcy, at humanity.

    One of the most extensive chroniclers of the war was Henry Williamson, an author who would later become most famous for writing Tarka the Otter. He was on the front line during the Christmas Truce, and when the war was over wrote A Chronicle of Ancient Sunlight, a 15-volume account of the conflict which discusses, among many other things, 1914 and what it all meant.

    Williamson was born in 1895 but remarkably his son, Harry, is still around.

    “Talking and writing about the ‘Great War’ became his way of dealing with it,” says Harry now, from his home in Australia. “He saw friends of his go crazy — soldiers who couldn’t bring themselves to talk about it and became less and less able to live with themselves. He was lucky to have an outlet for creative expression. I think the more he told his stories, the more at peace he felt.”

    Harry recalls his father mentioning football taking place. “The story had been that they saw the Germans kicking a football about, and eventually coming out onto the land between the sets of trenches. They offered the English to come and play football, and the English were initially worried whether they should be machine-gunning them or going to play football with them. What a choice to make.”

    Harry, who went on to be a successful musician, tells an extraordinary story about playing a concert near his father’s home. “The next morning he said with all the lights and the noise, he felt he was back in the war, reliving the bombardment that preceded each attack. I realised then his psyche had never fully recovered. Our entertainment was his nightmare.”


    Andrew Edwards’ statue now resides in Mesen, West Flanders (Arterra/Universal Images Group via Getty Images)

    We have to point out that, after the war in the 1930s, Henry Williamson became involved in the British fascist movement, and was good friends with Oswald Mosley. He was interred for a time during the Second World War as a potential enemy sympathiser. He was at the Nuremberg rally in 1923, but Harry is at pains to point out that he had no affiliation with the Nazis and was there as a photojournalist for The Daily Express.

    All of which should not negate his accounts of being in the trenches. One of the key elements of Henry’s reminiscences was the idea that sharing a universal sport effectively humanised, to a great extent, the Germans for the English soldiers.

    “We must remember the newspapers of the time reported the government propaganda, that the Germans ate babies for breakfast, that they were monsters, and inhuman,” says Harry. “Propaganda is insidious. Its effect lasts if it’s ‘well done’. It can stay with you a long time, even if your conscious mind says it’s ridiculous.”

    The German perspective on the Christmas Truce is an interesting one. The First World War generally is not as prominent in the collective consciousness as the Second World War. Within that, the Truce is well known, but while the football forms a significant part of the war mythology in England, it is barely discussed and not well known in Germany.

    This is probably one of the reasons why Ralf Marczinczik’s comic on the subject made such an impact. In 2013, the German Academy of Football invited submissions for competition: draw a one-page comic about ‘the idea’ of football. Marczinczik happened to be reading about the First World War at the time, and idly wondered if any of the soldiers had played while in the trenches.

    “I didn’t know a soccer game took place,” he says. “The Christmas truce is a well-known story — it’s been in some films, and in a graphic novel from the late 1990s, but there is no mention of soccer whatsoever. Even when I started researching, the soccer element was just a footnote.

    “But I thought, ‘What if someone had just kicked a ball around in the snow?’ Then with a bit of research, I found out that, yes, there was a small game. Just some guys, tired and cold, kicking the ball around. So I thought this was just too perfect an opportunity to pass by.”

    His comic, ‘Niemandsland’, struck a chord and won the competition along with its €5,000 first prize, which changed Marczinczik’s career. Even though the story isn’t widely known in Germany, he managed to encapsulate why the tale of football between the trenches stuck — and became so evocative over the years.

    “The idea behind it is to bring soccer back to the human interaction. It’s not a contest, but there’s a human connection in playing together, not being in teams but taking part in one activity.

    “The point I wanted to make is that there is something that connects us deeper than nations, some basic humanity that took place.”

    The Christmas Truce was never repeated. Partly because the increasing use of heavy artillery rather than rifles made it more difficult. Partly because it was never an ‘official’ thing anyway, a relatively spontaneous act by pockets of increasingly desperate men. But mainly because those in command on both sides promised pretty severe penalties for anyone who laid down their arms again.

    The extent to which football was played on Christmas Day 1914 may have been exaggerated. There was almost certainly no formalised game. But for a few minutes, a group of scared, tired and horrified young men did something that made them feel human again.

    (Header design: Eamonn Dalton/images via Getty Images)

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    The New York Times

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  • Priscilla Presley Defends Elvis For Dating Her When She Was 14 And He Was 24

    Priscilla Presley Defends Elvis For Dating Her When She Was 14 And He Was 24

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    Opinion

    Sources: YouTube Screenshots, Piers Morgan Uncensored, Pop Culture Club

    Priscilla Presley is speaking out to defend the late legendary singer Elvis Presley for initiating their relationship when he was 24 and she was only 14.

    Priscilla Defends Elvis

    Fox News reported that Priscilla was only 14 years-old when she met Elvis at a party in Germany, where the 24 year-old was stationed while serving in the U.S. military. Backlash has grown in recent years over both their 10 year age gap and Priscilla being a minor when they met, but she was quick to defend Elvis in a new interview.

    “My relationship with Elvis, you know, people go, ‘Oh my god, how could this happen?’ It was not a sexual relationship, being 14 years old,” Priscilla, now 78, told Fox 32 Chicago. “What I think really attracted him to me was the fact that, and I’ve gone over this many times, ‘Why me? Why me?’ was because I was like the listener. He poured his heart out to me in Germany. He was very, very lonely.”

    Priscilla went on to explain that Elvis had recently lost his mother when they met, something that she described as being  “a big issue for him.”

    “He just trusted me with a lot of things that he shared,” she explained.

    Priscilla further opened up about her and Elvis’ age gap earlier this year.

    “It was very difficult for my parents to understand that Elvis would be so interested in me and I really do think because I was more of a listener,” Priscilla said back in September, according to Entertainment Weekly. “Elvis would pour his heart out to me, his fears, his hopes, the loss of his mother which he never ever got over, and I was the person who really really sat there to listen and to comfort him.”

    “I was a little bit older in life than in numbers and that was the attraction,” she continued. “And you know, people think, Oh, it was sex… Not at all. I never had sex with him. He was very kind, very soft, very loving. But he also respected the fact that I was only 14 years old. We were more in mind and thought. And that was our relationship.”

    Related: Priscilla Presley Confesses Real Reason She Never Married Again After Elvis – ‘No One Could Ever Match Him

    Priscilla Remembers Christmases With Elvis

    Some of Priscilla’s fondest memories of Elvis are spending Christmases with him at his Graceland estate in Memphis, Tennessee.

    “Yes, that was his special time,” she said of these holidays. “He loved all the decorations. I would do the tree, I would put all the lightbulbs on the tree and the lights, and he would take the tinfoil and stand in the back where the dining room table is and curl it all up, squish it together and throw it. And I go, ‘No, that’s not how you put tinsel on and so I would take it and put a little bit and he would just take it and throw the tinsel on.”

    Priscilla and Elvis were married from 1967 until they divorced in 1973, and he tragically died four years later from a heart attack at the age of 42. Despite their split, Priscilla still views Elvis as the love of her life, and she has never remarried in the decades since his passing.

    “To be honest with you, I never wanted to marry after him. I never had any desire,” Priscilla told People Magazine last month. “No one could ever match him.”

    Related: Priscilla Presley Reveals She’ll Be Buried Next To Ex-Husband Elvis After Her Death

    Priscilla To Be Buried Near Elvis

    Page Six reported that this came days after a judge signed off on official documents stating that after her death, Priscilla will be buried near Elvis and their daughter Lisa Marie in Graceland’s Meditation Garden in Memphis, Tennessee.

    “That’s what I want and wanted,” Priscilla told the British media personality Piers Morgan afterwards of these burial plans.

    “So you will be buried there?” Piers asked, to which Priscilla replied with an emphatic, “Yes.”

    Do you think Elvis deserves backlash for beginning a relationship with Priscilla when she was only 14, or should people let this one go? Let us know in the comments section.

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    James Conrad

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  • Alexey Navalny Fast Facts | CNN

    Alexey Navalny Fast Facts | CNN

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    CNN
     — 

    Here is a look at Russian opposition leader, Kremlin critic and activist Alexey Navalny.

    Birth date: June 4, 1976

    Birth place: Butyn, Soviet Union

    Birth name: Alexey Anatolyevich Navalny (sometimes spelled Alexei, Aleksei)

    Father: Anatoly Navalny, former military officer and basket-weaving factory owner

    Mother: Lyudmila Navalnaya, basket-weaving factory owner

    Marriage: Yulia (Abrosimova) Navalnaya (2000-present)

    Children: Daria and Zakhar

    Education: Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia, commercial law, 1998; attended State Finance Academy, 1999-2001

    Has been a prominent organizer of street protests and has exposed corruption in Russian government and business via social media, including his LiveJournal blog and RosPil website.

    Says that he stands by previous anti-immigration comments considered xenophobic, including deporting Georgians from Russia. Has apologized for the use of derogatory terms.

    Is barred from running for political office because of a 2013 conviction. Russian law forbids convicted criminals running for political office.

    How Alexey Navalny became the face of opposition in Putin’s Russia (2021)

    2000 – Joins Yabloko, the Russian United Democratic Party.

    2006 – Participates in the Russian March, a nationalist event.

    2007 – Is expelled from Yabloko because of his nationalistic leanings.

    2007 – Launches the National Russian Liberation Movement, (known as NAROD, the Russian word for “people”).

    2009 – Policy adviser to the governor of the Kirov region.

    November 2010 – Blows the whistle on a $4 billion embezzlement scheme at the state-run oil pipeline operator, Transneft, by posting leaked documents on his blog.

    December 2010 – Kirov-area open an investigation against him involving a state-owned lumber deal when he was an adviser to the governor.

    December 5, 2011 – Takes part in protests following Vladimir Putin’s December 4 election win. Is arrested but is released after 15 days.

    2011 – Founds the Anti-Corruption Foundation (FBK). The organization investigates corruption in the Russian government and posts supporting documentation.

    December 24, 2011 – Speaks before tens of thousands of pro-reform demonstrators prior to the March 2012 presidential election.

    March 6, 2012 – Is arrested along with other protesters after Putin wins a third term as president on March 4, with just under 65% of the vote. Critics question the results amid complaints of voter fraud.

    March 20, 2013 – Is indicted, along with entrepreneur Petr Ofitserov, for misappropriating $500,000 in a state-owned lumber deal when he was an adviser to the Kirov region’s governor.

    July 18, 2013 – A court in the city of Kirov finds Navalny and Ofitserov guilty of embezzlement. They are sentenced to five and four years in prison respectively. Detained overnight, they are released July 19 pending an appeal. The verdict is followed by public protests.

    2013 – Runs unsuccessfully for mayor of Moscow. Comes in second with 27% of the vote.

    October 16, 2013 – The five-year prison sentence received July 2013 is reduced to a suspended sentence on appeal.

    October 2013 – In a statement from the Russian federal Investigative Committee, Navalny and his brother Oleg Navalny are accused of defrauding the French cosmetics company Yves Rocher’s Russian subsidiary.

    February 28, 2014-January 2015 – Under house arrest.

    December 30, 2014 – Is found guilty of fraud in the November 2013 case. Receives a suspended sentence of three and a half years. His brother receives a sentence of three and a half years in prison.

    February 23, 2016 – The European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) rules that Navalny and Ofitserov were deprived of the right to a fair trial in their 2013 conviction. They are awarded 8,000 Euros for damages, plus additional awards for costs and expenses.

    April 27, 2017 – Navalny is splashed in the face with an antiseptic green dye. The attack causes vision damage in one eye.

    January 22, 2018 – A Moscow court orders the closure of FBK, which funds Navalny’s activities.

    July 29, 2019 – Suffers an “acute allergic reaction” while serving a 30-day sentence in police custody. His July 24 arrest follows a call for demonstrations after the disqualification of opposition candidates for Russian municipal elections. Doctors do not find any signs of poisoning after doing an analysis, Russian News Agency TASS reports.

    Poisoning and time in Germany

    August 20, 2020 – Feels sick during a return flight to Moscow from the Siberian city of TomskIn and falls into a coma from suspected poisoning, according to spokeswoman Kira Yarmysh. “We assume that Alexey was poisoned with something mixed into [his] tea,” Yarmysh tweets. German NGO The Cinema for Peace Foundation says it is sending a medical plane to Russia in an attempt to evacuate him.

    August 21, 2020 – Russian doctors give Navalny’s team permission to move him. He is scheduled for a medical evacuation to travel to a German clinic, according to spokeswoman, Kira Yarmysh.

    August 22, 2020 – Arrives at the Charité Hospital in Berlin in Germany where an “extensive medical diagnosis” is made.

    September 2, 2020 – In a statement, the German government reports that Navalny was poisoned with a chemical nerve agent from the Novichok group. Novichok was used in a March 2018 attack on former Russian spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter, Yulia Skripal, in the English cathedral city of Salisbury.

    September 7, 2020 – According to a statement released by Charité Hospital, Navalny is out of a medically induced coma.

    September 23, 2020 – Is discharged from the hospital, according to a statement released by the Charité Hospital.

    December 14, 2020 – Reporting from CNN and investigative group Bellingcat reveals that Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) formed an elite team specializing in nerve agents and trailed Navalny for years. Phone and travel records suggest the unit followed Navalny to at least 17 cities since 2017.

    December 17, 2020 – At his annual press conference, Putin claims that if Russian special services had wanted to kill Navalny, “they would’ve probably finished it…but in this case, his wife asked me, and I immediately gave the order to let him out of the country to be treated in Germany… This is a trick to attack the leaders [in Russia].” The CNN-Bellingcat investigation is a form of “information warfare” facilitated by foreign special services, he says.

    December 21, 2020 – CNN reports that Konstantin Kudryavtsev, an agent who belonged to an elite toxins team in Russia’s FSB, revealed during a debriefing details about how Navalny was poisoned, but didn’t realize he was speaking to Navalny himself.

    December 28, 2020 – The Russia Federal Penitentiary Service (FSIN) accuses Navalny of violating the terms of his probation by failing to show up for scheduled inspections while in Germany and requests that a court replace his suspended sentence with an actual prison term.

    December 29, 2020 – Russia’s main investigative body launches a criminal case against Navalny on charges of fraud related to his alleged mishandling of $5 million in donations to FBK and other organizations.

    Return to Russia and trial

    January 2021 – Russian prison authorities officially request to replace Navalny’s 2014 suspended sentence with a real jail term. The Russian Federal Penitentiary Service says that by staying in Germany, Navalny is violating the terms of his suspended sentence in the so-called Yves Rocher case, which Navalny believes is politically motivated.

    January 13, 2021 – Announces on social media that he will return to Russia from Germany on January 17.

    January 17, 2021 – Navalny is detained moments after arriving in Moscow following months of treatment in Germany after being poisoned in August 2020. The next day, he is ordered to remain in custody for 30 days during a surprise hearing.

    February 2, 2021 – A Moscow court sentences Navalny to prison for more than two and a half years for violating probation terms from 2014 while he was in Germany. The sentence takes into account the 11 months Navalny spent under house arrest. His lawyer says he will appeal the verdict. The sentence prompts protests across the country.

    February 20, 2021 – Navalny’s appeal is partially rejected. The judge shortens his sentence by a month and a half, noting the time he spent under house arrest, from December 2014 to February 2015. In a separate hearing at Babushkinsky District Court, he is convicted of defaming World War II veteran Ignat Artemenko, 94, in social media comments made June 2020. Navalny criticized a video broadcast by state TV channel RT, in which prominent figures expressed support for controversial changes to the Russian constitution. The penalty for defamation, a fine, was changed to include potential jail time in December 2020.

    February 24, 2021 – According to Reuters, Navalny is stripped of his “prisoner of conscience” status by Amnesty International. The decision was made due to numerous complaints about Navalny’s past xenophobic comments received by the organization.

    March 3, 2021Navalny’s lawyer Vadim Kobzev tells CNN that Navalny is being held in detention center-3 in Kolchugino in the Vladimir region east of Moscow. Navalny will be held temporarily before being moved to a penal colony.

    March 31, 2021 Navalny, who is imprisoned in penal colony No. 2 in Pokrov, says he is going on a hunger strike to protest against prison officials’ refusal to grant him access to proper medical care.

    April 23, 2021 – Navalny announces that he is ending his hunger strike after receiving medical attention.

    April 26, 2021 – Moscow’s chief prosecutor freezes Navalny’s political movement by suspending activities at his offices across the country.

    April 29, 2021 – Navalny’s network of regional offices for his political movement will be “officially disbanded,” chief of staff Leonid Volkov announces. Volkov says the regional offices will “continue to work as independent social and political movements, but we will not finance them anymore, we will not set tasks for them, but we know that they by themselves will do a great job.”

    October 20, 2021 – Navalny is awarded the Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought.

    March 22, 2022 – Navalny is sentenced to nine years in a maximum-security jail, according to Tass, after being convicted on fraud charges by the Lefortovo court in Moscow over allegations that he stole from his Anti-Corruption Foundation.

    June 14, 2022 – Navalny is relocated to a maximum-security prison in Melekhovo in the Vladimir Region, according to Russia’s state media outlet TASS citing Sergey Yazhan, chairman of the regional public oversight commission.

    April 26, 2023 – In comments posted on Twitter, Navalny says he has been accused of committing “terrorist attacks” and the new case will be heard by a military court.

    August 4, 2023 – Is sentenced to 19 years in prison on extremism charges, Russian media report. Navalny is already serving sentences totaling 11-and-a-half years in a maximum security facility on fraud and other charges that he says were trumped up.

    December 11, 2023 – Lawyers for Navalny say they have lost contact with the jailed Russian opposition leader and his whereabouts are unknown.

    A general view shows the penal colony N2, where Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny has been transferred to serve a two-and-a-half year prison term for violating parole, in the town of Pokrov on March 1, 2021.

    The rough conditions inside prison camp where Navalny is being held

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  • Cameron and Baerbock call for ‘sustainable cease-fire’ in Gaza

    Cameron and Baerbock call for ‘sustainable cease-fire’ in Gaza

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    British Foreign Secretary David Cameron and German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock on Sunday called for a “sustainable cease-fire” in the Middle East, lamenting that “too many civilians have been killed” in the Israel-Hamas war.

    In a joint article in the Sunday Times, Baerbock and Cameron made clear that: “We do not believe that calling right now for a general and immediate cease-fire, hoping it somehow becomes permanent, is the way forward.”

    “We must do all we can to pave the way to a sustainable cease-fire, leading to a sustainable peace,” they said.

    The article represents an apparent shift in the stances of both countries on the conflict in Gaza. The British government has called for a “humanitarian pause” in the fighting, but has stopped short of urging a cease-fire. Germany has staunchly defended Israel’s right to defend itself since the attacks by Hamas on October 7.

    Last Tuesday, both Germany and the U.K. abstained from voting on the U.N. General Assembly’s call for an “immediate humanitarian cease-fire” in the Gaza Strip — which passed by 153 to 10 with 23 abstentions.

    “Our goal cannot simply be an end to fighting today. It must be peace lasting for days, years, generations,” the two ministers said in their article, stressing that they support “a cease-fire, but only if it is sustainable.”

    The international calls for an immediate cease-fire are “an understandable reaction to such intense suffering, and we share the view that this conflict cannot drag on and on,” Baerbock and Cameron wrote. That is why the two governments “supported the recent humanitarian pauses” and are “pushing the diplomatic effort to agree further pauses to get more aid in and more hostages out,” they said.

    “Only extremists like Hamas want us stuck in an endless cycle of violence, sacrificing more innocent lives for their fanatical ideology,” the two ministers wrote.

    However, “the Israeli government should do more to discriminate sufficiently between terrorists and civilians, ensuring its campaign targets Hamas leaders and operatives,” Cameron and Baerbock said.

    “We do not believe that calling right now for a general and immediate cease-fire, hoping it somehow becomes permanent, is the way forward” because “it ignores why Israel is forced to defend itself: Hamas barbarically attacked Israel and still fires rockets to kill Israeli citizens every day,” they said. Baerbock and Cameron prefer “a sustainable cease-fire, leading to a sustainable peace. The sooner it comes, the better — the need is urgent,” they said.

    French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna, meanwhile, on Sunday urged an “immediate and durable” truce in the Gaza Strip. Speaking in Tel Aviv during a meeting with her Israeli counterpart, Eli Cohen, Colonna said that “the truce should lead to a lasting cease-fire with the aim of releasing all hostages and delivering aid to Gaza.”

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    Tommaso Lecca

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  • Migration is derailing leaders from Biden to Macron. Who’s next?

    Migration is derailing leaders from Biden to Macron. Who’s next?

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    Voiced by artificial intelligence.

    BRUSSELS — Western leaders are grappling with how to handle two era-defining wars in the Middle East and in Ukraine. But there’s another issue, one far closer to home, that’s derailing governments in Europe and America: migration. 

    In recent days, U.S. President Joe Biden, his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron, and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak all hit trouble amid intense domestic pressure to tackle immigration; all three emerged weakened as a result. The stakes are high as American, British and European voters head to the polls in 2024. 

    “There is a temptation to hunt for quick fixes,” said Rashmin Sagoo, director of the international law program at the Chatham House think tank in London. “But irregular migration is a hugely challenging issue. And solving it requires long-term policy thinking beyond national boundaries.”

    With election campaigning already under way, long-term plans may be hard to find. Far-right, anti-migrant populists promising sharp answers are gaining support in many Western democracies, leaving mainstream parties to count the costs. Less than a month ago in the Netherlands, pragmatic Dutch centrists lost to an anti-migrant radical. 

    Who will be next? 

    Rishi Sunak, United Kingdom 

    In Britain, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is under pressure from members of his own ruling Conservative party who fear voters will punish them over the government’s failure to get a grip on migration. 

    U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak speaks during a press conference in Dover on June 5, 2023 in Dover, England | Pool photo by Yui Mok/WPA via Getty Images

    Seven years ago, voters backed Brexit because euroskeptic campaigners promised to “Take Back Control” of the U.K.’s borders. Instead, the picture is now more chaotic than ever. The U.K. chalked up record net migration figures last month, and the government has failed so far to stop small boats packed with asylum seekers crossing the English Channel.

    Sunak is now in the firing line. He made a pledge to “Stop the Boats” central to his premiership. In the process, he ignited a war in his already divided party about just how far Britain should go. 

    Under Sunak’s deal with Rwanda, the central African nation agreed to resettle asylum seekers who arrived on British shores in small boats. The PM says the policy will deter migrants from making sea crossings to the U.K. in the first place. But the plan was struck down by the Supreme Court in London, and Sunak’s Tories now can’t agree on what to do next. 

    Having survived what threatened to be a catastrophic rebellion in parliament on Tuesday, the British premier still faces a brutal battle in the legislature over his proposed Rwanda law early next year.

    Time is running out for Sunak to find a fix. An election is expected next fall.

    Emmanuel Macron, France

    The French president suffered an unexpected body blow when the lower house of parliament rejected his flagship immigration bill this week. 

    French President Emmanuel Macron at the Elysee Palace in Paris, on June 21, 2023 | Ludovic Marin/AFP via Getty Images

    After losing parliamentary elections last year, getting legislation through the National Assembly has been a fraught process for Macron. He has been forced to rely on votes from the right-wing Les Républicains party on more than one occasion. 

    Macron’s draft law on immigration was meant to please both the conservatives and the center-left with a carefully designed mix of repressive and liberal measures. But in a dramatic upset, the National Assembly, which is split between centrists, the left and the far right, voted against the legislation on day one of debates.

    Now Macron is searching for a compromise. The government has tasked a joint committee of senators and MPs with seeking a deal. But it’s likely their text will be harsher than the initial draft, given that the Senate is dominated by the centre right — and this will be a problem for Macron’s left-leaning lawmakers. 

    If a compromise is not found, Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally will be able to capitalize on Macron’s failure ahead of the European Parliament elections next June. 

    But even if the French president does manage to muddle through, the episode is likely to mark the end of his “neither left nor right” political offer. It also raises serious doubts about his ability to legislate on controversial topics.

    Joe Biden, United States   

    The immigration crisis is one of the most vexing and longest-running domestic challenges for President Joe Biden. He came into office vowing to reverse the policies of his predecessor, Donald Trump, and build a “fair and humane” system, only to see Congress sit on his plan for comprehensive immigration reform. 

    U.S. President Joe Biden pauses as he gives a speech in Des Moines, Iowa on July 15, 2019 | Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

    The White House has seen a deluge of migrants at the nation’s southern border, strained by a decades-old system unable to handle modern migration patterns. 

    Ahead of next year’s presidential election, Republicans have seized on the issue. GOP state leaders have filed lawsuits against the administration and sent busloads of migrants to Democrat-led cities, while in Washington, Republicans in Congress have tied foreign aid to sweeping changes to border policy, putting the White House in a tight spot as Biden officials now consider a slate of policies they once forcefully rejected. 

    The political pressure has spilled into the other aisle. States and cities, particularly ones led by Democrats, are pressuring Washington leaders to do more in terms of providing additional federal aid and revamping southern border policies to limit the flow of asylum seekers into the United States.

    New York City has had more than 150,000 new arrivals over the past year and a half — forcing cuts to new police recruits, cutting library hours and limiting sanitation duties. Similar problems are playing out in cities like Chicago, which had migrants sleeping in buses or police stations.

    The pressure from Democrats is straining their relationship with the White House. New York City Mayor Eric Adams runs the largest city in the nation, but hasn’t spoken with Biden in nearly a year. “We just need help, and we’re not getting that help,” Adams told reporters Tuesday. 

    Olaf Scholz, Germany

    Migration has been at the top of the political agenda in Germany for months, with asylum applications rising to their highest levels since the 2015 refugee crisis triggered by Syria’s civil war.

    The latest influx has posed a daunting challenge to national and local governments alike, which have struggled to find housing and other services for the migrants, not to mention the necessary funds. 

    The inability to limit the number of refugees has put German Chancellor Olaf Scholz under immense pressure | Michele Tantussi/Getty Images

    The inability — in a country that ranks among the most coveted destinations for asylum seekers — to limit the number of refugees has put German Chancellor Olaf Scholz under immense pressure. In the hope of stemming the flow, Germany recently reinstated border checks with Poland, the Czech Republic and Switzerland, hoping to turn back the refugees before they hit German soil.

    Even with border controls, refugee numbers remain high, which has been a boon to the far right. Germany’s anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany party has reached record support in national polls. 

    Since overtaking Scholz’s Social Democrats in June, the AfD has widened its lead further, recording 22 percent in recent polls, second only to the center-right Christian Democrats. 

    The AfD is expected to sweep three state elections next September in eastern Germany, where support for the party and its reactionary anti-foreigner policies is particularly strong.

    The center-right, meanwhile, is hardening its position on migration and turning its back on the open-border policies championed by former Chancellor Angela Merkel. Among the new priorities is a plan to follow the U.K.’s Rwanda model for processing refugees in third countries.

    Karl Nehammer, Austria 

    Like Scholz, the Austrian leader’s approval ratings have taken a nosedive thanks to concerns over migration. Austria has taken steps to tighten controls at its southern and eastern borders. 

    Though the tactic has led to a drop in arrivals by asylum seekers, it also means Austria has effectively suspended the EU’s borderless travel regime, which has been a boon to the regional economy for decades. 

    Austria has effectively suspended the EU’s borderless travel regime, which has been a boon to the regional economy for decades | Thomas Kronsteiner/Getty Images

    The far-right Freedom Party has had a commanding lead for more than a year, topping the ruling center-right in polls by 10 points. That puts the party in a position to win national elections scheduled for next fall, which would mark an unprecedented rightward tilt in a country whose politics have been dominated by the center since World War II. 

    Giorgia Meloni, Italy 

    Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni made her name in opposition, campaigning on a radical far-right agenda. Since winning power in last year’s election, she has shifted to more moderate positions on Ukraine and Europe.

    Meloni now needs to appease her base on migration, a topic that has dominated Italian debate for years. Instead, however, she has been forced to grant visas to hundreds of thousands of legal migrants to cover labor shortages. Complicating matters, boat landings in Italy are up by about 50 per cent year-on-year despite some headline-grabbling policies and deals to stop arrivals. 

    While Meloni has ordered the construction of detention centers where migrants will be held pending repatriation, in reality local conditions in African countries and a lack of repatriation agreements present serious impediments.    

    Italy’s Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni at a press conference on March 9, 2023 | Tiziana Fabi/AFP via Getty Images

    Although she won the support of Commission President Ursula von der Leyen for her cause, a potential EU naval mission to block departures from Africa would risk breaching international law. 

    Meloni has tried other options, including a deal with Tunisia to help stop migrant smuggling, but the plan fell apart before it began. A deal with Albania to offshore some migrant detention centers also ran into trouble. 

    Now Meloni is in a bind. The migration issue has brought her into conflict with France and Germany as she attempts to create a reputation as a moderate conservative. 

    If she fails to get to grips with the issue, she is likely to lose political ground. Her coalition partner Matteo Salvini is known as a hardliner on migration, and while they’re officially allies for now, they will be rivals again later. 

    Geert Wilders, the Netherlands

    The government of long-serving Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte was toppled over migration talks in July, after which he announced his exit from politics. In subsequent elections, in which different parties vied to fill Rutte’s void, far-right firebrand Geert Wilders secured a shock win. On election night he promised to curb the “asylum tsunami.” 

    Wilders is now seeking to prop up a center-right coalition with three other parties that have urged getting migration under control. One of them is Rutte’s old group, now led by Dilan Yeşilgöz. 

    Geert Wilders attends a meeting in the Dutch parliament with party leaders to discuss the formation of a coalition government, on November 24, 2023 | Carl Court/Getty Images

    A former refugee, Yeşilgöz turned migration into one of the main topics of her campaign. She was criticized after the elections for paving the way for Wilders to win — not only by focusing on migration, but also by opening the door to potentially governing with Wilders. 

    Now, though, coalition talks are stuck, and it could take months to form a new cabinet. If Wilders, who clearly has a mandate from voters, can stitch a coalition together, the political trajectory of the Netherlands — generally known as a pragmatic nation — will shift significantly to the right. A crackdown on migration is as certain as anything can be. 

    Leo Varadkar, Ireland

    Even in Ireland, an economically open country long used to exporting its own people worldwide, an immigration-friendly and pro-business government has been forced by rising anti-foreigner sentiment to introduce new migration deterrence measures that would have been unthinkable even a year ago.

    Ireland’s hardening policies reflect both a chronic housing crisis and the growing reluctance of some property owners to keep providing state-funded emergency shelter in the wake of November riots in Dublin triggered by a North African immigrant’s stabbing of young schoolchildren.

    A nation already housing more than 100,000 newcomers, mostly from Ukraine, Ireland has stopped guaranteeing housing to new asylum seekers if they are single men, chiefly from Nigeria, Algeria, Afghanistan, Georgia and Somalia, according to the most recent Department of Integration statistics

    Ireland has stopped guaranteeing housing to new asylum seekers if they are single men, chiefly from Nigeria, Algeria, Afghanistan, Georgia and Somalia | Jorge Guerrero/AFP via Getty Images

    Even newly arrived families face an increasing risk of being kept in military-style tents despite winter temperatures.

    Ukrainians, who since Russia’s 2022 invasion of their country have received much stronger welfare support than other refugees, will see that welcome mat partially retracted in draft legislation approved this week by the three-party coalition government of Prime Minister Leo Varadkar. 

    Once enacted by parliament next month, the law will limit new Ukrainian arrivals to three months of state-paid housing, while welfare payments – currently among the most generous in Europe for people fleeing Russia’s war – will be slashed for all those in state-paid housing.

    Justin Trudeau, Canada  

    A pessimistic public mood dragged down by cost-of-living woes has made immigration a multidimensional challenge for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

    A housing crunch felt across the country has cooled support for immigration, with people looking for scapegoats for affordability pains. The situation has fueled antipathy for Trudeau and his re-election campaign.

    Trudeau has treated immigration as a multipurpose solution for Canada’s aging population and slowing economy. And while today’s record-high population growth reflects well on Canada’s reputation as a desirable place to relocate, political challenges linked to migration have arisen in unpredictable ways for Trudeau’s Liberals.

    Political challenges linked to migration have arisen in unpredictable ways for Trudeau’s Liberals | Andrej Ivanov/AFP

    Since Trudeau came to power eight years ago, at least 1.3 million people have immigrated to Canada, mostly from India, the Philippines, China and Syria. Handling diaspora politics — and foreign interference — has become more consequential, as seen by Trudeau’s clash with India and Canada’s recent break with Israel.

    Canada will double its 40 million population in 25 years if the current growth rate holds, enlarging the political challenges of leading what Trudeau calls the world’s “first postnational state”.

    Pedro Sánchez, Spain

    Spain’s autonomous cities of Ceuta and Melilla, in Northern Africa, are favored by migrants seeking to enter Europe from the south: Once they make it across the land border, the Continent can easily be accessed by ferry. 

    Transit via the land border that separates the European territory from Morocco is normally kept in check with security measures like high, razor-topped fences, with border control officers from both countries working together to keep undocumented migrants out. 

    Spain’s autonomous cities of Ceuta and Melilla, in Northern Africa, are favored by migrants seeking to enter Europe | Pierre-Philippe Marcou/AFP

    But in recent years authorities in Morocco have expressed displeasure with their Spanish counterparts by standing down their officers and allowing hundreds of migrants to pass, overwhelming border stations and forcing Spanish officers to repel the migrants, with scores dying in the process

    The headaches caused by these incidents are believed to be a major factor in Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s decision to change the Spanish government’s position on the disputed Western Sahara territory and express support for Rabat’s plan to formalize its nearly 50-year occupation of the area. 

    The pivot angered Sánchez’s leftist allies and worsened Spain’s relationship with Algeria, a long-standing champion of Western Saharan independence. But the measures have stopped the flow of migrants — for now.

    Kyriakos Mitsotakis, Greece

    Greece has been at the forefront of Europe’s migration crisis since 2015, when hundreds of thousands of people entered Europe via the Aegean islands. Migration and border security have been key issues in the country’s political debate.

    Human rights organizations, as well as the European Parliament and the European Commission, have accused the Greek conservative government of Kyriakos Mitsotakis of illegal “pushbacks” of migrants who have made it to Greek territory — and of deporting migrants without due process. Greece’s government denies those accusations, arguing that independent investigations haven’t found any proof.

    Mitsotakis insists that Greece follows a “tough but fair” policy, but the numerous in-depth investigations belie the moderate profile the conservative leader wants to maintain.

    Human rights organizations, as well as the European Parliament and the European Commission, have accused the Greek government of illegal “pushbacks” of migrants | John Thys/AFP via Getty Images

    In June, a migrant boat sank in what some called “the worst tragedy ever” in the Mediterranean Sea. Hundreds lost their lives, refocusing Europe’s attention on the issue. Official investigations have yet to discover whether failures by Greek authorities contributed to the shipwreck, according to Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch.

    In the meantime, Greece is in desperate need of thousands of workers to buttress the country’s understaffed agriculture, tourism and construction sectors. Despite pledges by the migration and agriculture ministers of imminent legislation bringing migrants to tackle the labor shortage, the government was forced to retreat amid pressure from within its own ranks.

    Nikos Christodoulides, Cyprus

    Cyprus is braced for an increase in migrant arrivals on its shores amid renewed conflict in the Middle East. Earlier in December, Greece sent humanitarian aid to the island to deal with an anticipated increase in flows.

    Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides has called for extra EU funding for migration management, and is contending with a surge in violence against migrants in Cyprus. Analysts blame xenophobia, which has become mainstream in Cypriot politics and media, as well as state mismanagement of migration flows. Last year the country recorded the EU’s highest proportion of first-time asylum seekers relative to its population.

    Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides has called for extra EU funding for migration management | Ludovic Marin/AFP via Getty Images

    Legal and staffing challenges have delayed efforts to create a deputy ministry for migration, deemed an important step in helping Cyprus to deal with the surge in arrivals. 

    The island’s geography — it’s close to both Lebanon and Turkey — makes it a prime target for migrants wanting to enter EU territory from the Middle East. Its complex history as a divided country also makes it harder to regulate migrant inflows.

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  • John Kerry warns against carbon capture’s ‘great facade’ as a climate cure-all

    John Kerry warns against carbon capture’s ‘great facade’ as a climate cure-all

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    DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — Some countries at the COP28 climate talks are lying about the potential for capturing the greenhouse gases fossil fuels emit, U.S. climate envoy John Kerry said.

    Kerry was speaking at an event on Friday evening on the sidelines of the U.N. COP28 climate talks in Dubai, where the nations of the world are wrangling over the draft of a pledge to end fossil fuel use.

    The deal has been forcefully opposed by fossil fuel-producing countries, including Saudi Arabia. Negotiators from Riyadh argue carbon pollution can be largely captured and buried using scrubbing technology that Kerry said remains largely unproven at the needed scale.

    “There are people here who want to just continue business as usual. And the great facade is: ‘Oh no, we’ll be able to capture everything,’” said Kerry, his voice hoarse from a chest cold. “No scientist tells me we can capture it all. Can’t do it. Can we capture some? Yes, and by the way, I’m for it.”

    Kerry said it was up to the gas industry “to show us they can capture all those emissions, to tell us whether it’s really going to be part of the future. But don’t lie to people and tell them it’s green. And don’t pretend to people that that’s the main alternative.”

    Kerry said the next few days of talks, which are scheduled to end Tuesday, would be “absolutely critical. Without any question whatsoever.”

    A draft text released on Friday by the United Arab Emirates government, which is hosting the conference, included several options for a deal between almost 200 countries to “phase out” fossil fuels — a phrase being pushed by small island states, the U.S. and the European Union. But it also included an option for no deal at all, which is the result many countries, including Saudi Arabia, China and Russia prefer.

    “I am concerned that not everyone is engaging in a constructive manner,” German climate envoy Jennifer Morgan said in a statement shared with reporters.

    Saudi negotiators have pushed for the deal to focus on the emissions that cause climate change, rather than the fuels that cause the emissions, UAE chief negotiator Hana Al Hashimi told reporters Saturday. That necessitates the use of carbon capture — but countries are divided over how much the technology can be used, versus the need to simply stamp out the use of the fuels.

    The EU is arguing for the deal at COP28 to include a stipulation that carbon capture and storage (CCS) only be used for the hardest sectors to cut out the use of fossil fuels, such as the manufacture of cement.

    “Make no mistake, we cannot CCS ourselves out of the problem,” said EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra at a press conference Friday, adding that carbon capture and storage was “a minor part of the solution space.”

    Advocates for a fossil fuel phase-out deal believe it will scare investors away from fossil fuel projects. “One thing I know to absolute certainty,” Kerry said, “we are not going to go back to the old energy paradigm, you can absolutely bank on that. We are not going back.”

    Zia Weise contributed reporting from Dubai.

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  • Germany warns of ‘warmonger Putin’ pushing propaganda at Paris Olympics

    Germany warns of ‘warmonger Putin’ pushing propaganda at Paris Olympics

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    Germany’s sports minister, Nancy Faeser, has called on the International Olympic Committee to examine “very carefully” the backgrounds of Russian and Belarusian athletes competing in next year’s Olympic Games in Paris.

    Faeser’s comments came a day after the IOC, headed by Germany’s Thomas Bach, announced that Russians and Belarusians would be able to compete in Paris as neutrals outside of team events, provided they did not actively support the war against Ukraine.

    But Faeser, who is also Germany’s interior minister, said that it was important the IOC examine their backgrounds and exclude any athletes found to support President Vladimir Putin’s war, or have any connection to the Russian government or military.

    “The warmonger Putin must under no circumstances use the Olympic Games in Paris for his propaganda,” said Faeser, in a statement sent to POLITICO.

    In March, the IOC recommended that international sports could reinstate Russian and Belarusian athletes as individuals, under a neutral banner, as long as they had not supported the war and that they were not under contract with either the army or national security agencies.

    According to the IOC, 11 athletes — eight Russians and three Belarusians — have so far qualified for Paris 2024.

    Faeser said Russian teams being excluded and flags and symbols banned was “the absolute minimum we could expect from the International Olympic Committee.”

    “It would be completely unacceptable for Ukrainian athletes to have to compete against Russians who support the Russian war of aggression against their country,” she added. “Ukraine — and Ukrainian sport — must continue to enjoy the full support and solidarity of world sport.”

    Hans von der Burchard contributed reporting.

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  • Saudi-led fight against COP28 deal shows ‘panic,’ German climate envoy says

    Saudi-led fight against COP28 deal shows ‘panic,’ German climate envoy says

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    DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — The full-scale resistance that oil-exporting countries are mounting against a COP28 deal to end fossil fuel use is a sign of “panic,” said Germany’s climate envoy. 

    Last week, as ministers descended on the U.N. climate talks in Dubai, the OPEC cartel of oil-rich nations urged its 13 members, including Saudi Arabia, and OPEC+ countries to reject any agreement that aimed to slash fossil fuel production. The appeal sparked contentious debate over the weekend as officials tried to finalize a deal before COP28’s scheduled end on Tuesday. 

    But to Jennifer Morgan, Germany’s special envoy for international climate action, the letter was also a rare admission from the oil industry that these climate talks pose an existential threat to its business model.

    “They obviously felt they needed to engage,” Morgan said in response to a question from POLITICO while speaking to a group of reporters. “Whether it was a bit of panic, whether it was a bit of realization of how far the discussions are. That’s my take on that.”

    Fossil fuels have landed at this year’s climate talks in a big way after decades where they were largely absent from the negotiations, despite being the driving force behind global warming. 

    But as the impacts of climate change have accelerated and alternative options such as wind and solar have become more affordable, a growing number of countries are drawing attention to the need to wean their economies off oil, gas and coal. 

    That push is proving to be among the most contentious issues at COP28, which is taking place in a region that is home to some of the world’s top oil and gas producers. 

    As the talks speed toward a close, officials are working to craft language that can get support from the nearly 200 countries participating in the process. It will be up to the UAE presidency of COP28 to attempt to find consensus. Draft text over the weekend offered several options for a pledge to “phase out” fossil fuels, all with various caveats.

    But several people close to the talks said that Saudi Arabia and the Arab group of negotiators have resisted such language, including storming out of one meeting room, according to one observer of the process granted anonymity to discuss the closed-door talks. 

    “We have raised our consistent concerns with attempts to attack energy sources instead of emissions,” Saudi Arabia’s Albara Tawfiq said during Sunday’s public session.

    His comments mirror remarks delivered on Saturday in Dubai by OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al Ghais. 

    “Our goal must be to reduce emissions, which is the core objective of the Paris Agreement, while ensuring energy security and universal access to affordable energy,” the OPEC secretariat posted on X, quoting Al Ghais and referencing the 2015 international climate accord to limit global warming. 

    Even before COP28 began, countries were aware that getting Saudi Arabia on board with supporting a fossil fuel phaseout would be supremely challenging. Oil remains the backbone of the Saudi economy, despite efforts to diversify.

    “We hope following this discussion, the presidency would be able to deal with that now that he has clearly heard from all the parties,” said Seve Paeniu, minister of finance and economic development for the Pacific island nation of Tuvalu. “It’s really now in the hands of the presidency.”

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  • EU warns of ‘huge risk’ of terrorist attacks before Christmas

    EU warns of ‘huge risk’ of terrorist attacks before Christmas

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    There is a “huge risk” of terror attacks in the EU ahead of Christmas, European Home Affairs Commissioner Ylva Johansson warned on Tuesday, linking the threat to the ongoing war in the Middle East.

    “With the war between Israel and Hamas, and the polarization it causes in our society, with the upcoming holiday season, there is a huge risk of terrorist attacks in the European Union,” she told reporters before the start of the Justice and Home Affairs Council.

    Johansson’s comments follow an attack near the Eiffel Tower in Paris last weekend during which a German man was killed, and others injured, by a man who had pledged allegiance to the Islamic State group, according to a French prosecutor. “We saw it recently in Paris, unfortunately we have seen it earlier as well,” Johansson said.

    In October, a French teacher was stabbed to death in a knife attack at a school in Arras which the French authorities treated as a terrorist incident. In late November Germany’s domestic spy agency also said the war between Israel and Hamas has fueled an increased risk of attacks by radicalized Islamists inside Germany.

    Several European countries have seen an increase in the number of antisemitic crimes since Palestinian militant group Hamas launched an attack against Israel on October 7, killing 1,200 people and taking hundreds of hostages. That sparked a massive retaliation by Israel against Hamas in Gaza which has killed more than 15,000 Palestinians so far, according to both the Palestinian Authority and Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry.

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  • Heavy snowfall shuts down air, rail links in southern Germany

    Heavy snowfall shuts down air, rail links in southern Germany

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    Flights grounded at Munich airport, Bayern Munich’s home match against Union Berlin also called off.

    Heavy snowfall overnight has paralysed air and rail connections in the southern German state of Bavaria, leaving thousands of travellers stranded.

    All flights were grounded at Munich Airport, a key regional and international hub, until 6am (05:00) GMT on Sunday, the airport said. Air traffic had initially been suspended until noon (11:00 GMT) on Saturday.

    “Passengers are strongly advised not to travel to the airport today [Saturday] and to check the status of their flight with their airline before travelling to the airport tomorrow,” airport authorities said.

    German airline Lufthansa noted the knock-on effect of the closure of Munich airport, saying that many other airports in Germany, including the one in Frankfurt “are affected with limited flight operations”.

    The severe weather, which is expected to continue, also disrupted rail services in Bavaria, with the main railway station in the capital, Munich, brought to a virtual standstill.

    Regional and long-distance services to and from the main transport hub were temporarily suspended, including connections with the Austrian cities of Salzburg and Innsbruck. Passengers on some trains in Munich and Ulm had to spend the night on trains.

    The railway assumed that the restrictions would continue throughout Saturday. “We recommend postponing journeys to and from Munich,” said a spokesperson quoted by the dpa news agency.

    Bayern Munich’s match cancelled

    Bayern Munich’s home match against Union Berlin was called off because of heavy snowfall on Saturday.

    “Even if it had been possible to get the pitch at the Allianz Arena in a condition that would have allowed the match to go ahead by the afternoon, safety risks and the traffic situation made cancellation unavoidable,” the club said in a statement.

    “Snow falling from the roof at the Allianz Arena poses an incalculable risk for spectators. In addition, it is almost impossible to get to the stadium,” it added.

    Underground services, buses and trams also initially stopped running in the Bavarian capital. There were numerous accidents on the roads in southern Bavaria, most of which police said resulted in property damage, dpa said.

    The German Weather Service expected heavy snowfall to continue in the south, southeast and parts of the north of the state.

    Many smaller roads outside of built-up areas were heavily snow covered or blocked by fallen trees as the removal of traffic obstructions continued.

    Police in Lower Bavaria, the region northwest of Munich, said they responded to 350 incidents related to snow and ice between Friday night and early Saturday, some of which led to minor to moderate injuries.

    Parts of the neighbouring state of Baden-Wurttemberg also received up to 40cm (15.7 inches) of snowfall overnight, causing trees to topple and block roads.

    According to police, a 54-year-old driver died when his vehicle spun and collided with a van on Friday evening in the town of Emmingen-Liptingen. The driver of the van was uninjured.

    In Austria and Switzerland, the new snowfall led officials to raise the alarm about the danger of avalanches. The provinces of Tyrol and Vorarlberg in western Austria raised their avalanche warnings to the second-highest level after the region received up to 50cm (20 inches) of snow overnight.

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  • Netanyahu: Don’t accuse me of boosting Hamas with Qatari money

    Netanyahu: Don’t accuse me of boosting Hamas with Qatari money

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    Press play to listen to this article

    Voiced by artificial intelligence.

    Paul Ronzheimer is the deputy editor-in-chief of BILD and a senior journalist reporting for Axel Springer, the parent company of POLITICO.

    Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vehemently denied accusations he allowed Qatar to fund and strengthen the militant group Hamas in order to divide Palestinians into rival political camps, slamming the claims as “ridiculous.”

    Netanyahu’s opponents in Israel argue his government spent years actively boosting Hamas in Gaza by allowing Qatar to channel hundreds of millions of dollars to the coastal enclave in a risky game of “divide-and-rule,” that was meant to play the Islamist militants from Hamas off against the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank.

    “It’s a big lie that I wanted to build [up] Hamas. Ridiculous,” Netanyahu said in an interview with Axel Springer, POLITICO’s parent company. “You don’t go to war three times with Hamas or do major military operations if you want to build up Hamas.”

    Former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is a leading example of a politician who takes that version of events with a pinch of salt. “In the last 15 years, Israel did everything to downgrade the Palestinian Authority and to boost Hamas,” he previously told POLITICO. “Gaza was on the brink of collapse because they had no resources, they had no money, and the PA refused to give Hamas any money. Bibi saved them. Bibi made a deal with Qatar and they started to move millions and millions of dollars to Gaza.”

    Most incriminatingly, Netanyahu himself said in 2019 at a Likud party conference: “Anyone who wants to prevent the establishment of a Palestinian state needs to support strengthening Hamas.”

    Netanyahu on Tuesday, however, dismissed those charges, claiming he only allowed Qatari money to flow into Gaza to avoid a humanitarian catastrophe, not to strengthen the arm of the administration there.

    “We wanted to avoid a civilian humanitarian collapse — disease, rampant hunger and other things that would have created an impossible humanitarian situation,” he said. “That’s why successive Israeli governments allowed this money to go in, not in order to strengthen Hamas. We didn’t want to strengthen Hamas at all. We wanted to weaken it and degrade its capabilities as far as we could.”

    Israel and Hamas are on the fifth day of a fragile truce — which has so far allowed for the release of 69 of the 240 hostages taken by the militant group during its October 7 attack.

    But all eyes are now turned to the “day after” and what the end of the truce will mean for Israel and Gaza.

    Netanyahu said Israel would keep its side of the truce as long as Hamas keeps its, but he noted that Hamas would still have to be destroyed after the cease-fire ends.

    “Make no mistake: we shall continue our military efforts to eradicate Hamas, because Hamas says very clearly that it will repeat the savagery over and over and over,” he said.

    And after Israel has defeated Hamas, he said, the goal will be twofold: to de-militarize and de-radicalize Gaza.

    “Our goal is to make sure that Gaza does not revert to the kind of horrible threat it was to Israel before the war,” Netanyahu said.

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    Paul Ronzheimer and Claudia Chiappa

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  • Eye-catching climate donations put spotlight on China at COP climate talks

    Eye-catching climate donations put spotlight on China at COP climate talks

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    DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — The U.N. climate summit kicked off Thursday with a parade of wealthy nations offering big-money pledges to help poorer countries cope with the ravages of a warming world — a surprise that turns up the pressure on countries like China to open their checkbooks.

    Leading the charge was the summit’s oil-rich host, the United Arab Emirates, whose $100 million (€92 million) vow seemed designed to defuse months of criticism about whether it can serve as an honest broker in talks about ending the world’s fossil fuel dependence. Its offer matched one from Germany.

    The maneuver certainly turned heads — and kicked off a cascade of contributions, making for a remarkable opening day at the 28th annual COP conference. The European Union said it would give at least €225 million for the fund (including Germany’s pledge). The United Kingdom tossed in £40 million, or approximately €46 million.

    Trailing far behind: the United States, at $17.5 million, or roughly €16 million.

    Suddenly, it was the UAE getting the praise. EU climate envoy Wopke Hoekstra thanked the country for “leading the way for new donors.” 

    He added: “Thanks to the EU’s efforts, the fund is open to contributions from all parties that have the capacity to pay.”

    His comment was a clear nod to the fact that the pledge transcended a decades-old divide in climate talks between “developed” and “developing” nations, particularly on financial matters. Many activists and climate-vulnerable countries have long argued that rich, industrialized countries responsible for the bulk of planet-warming emissions should take the lead on funding climate action. Even the Paris Agreement echoes this point.

    Now, however, the spotlight will turn to countries like China, the world’s second-largest economy, and Saudi Arabia and Qatar, two small yet affluent countries. All three are still considered “developing countries” under the U.N. climate framework despite amassing considerable wealth in recent generations.

    “We are building bridges between traditional donor countries and new, non-traditional donors,” said German Development Minister Svenja Schulze, who announced Berlin’s $100 million contribution via video link in the plenary, in a statement.

    Without mentioning any country in particular, she added: “After all, many countries that were still developing countries 30 years ago can now afford shouldering their share of responsibility for global climate-related loss and damage.”

    An age-old battle

    Most developing countries want to maintain their existing categorization, which harkens back to an early rubric used to define which countries are rich and poor. 

    But developed countries like the U.S. and those in Europe are campaigning for high-polluting emerging economies to contribute funding, a push aimed at broadening the donor base as financial needs grow.

    In the absence of direct bilateral aid, the U.S. is working to draw in more money from the private sector | Feng Li/Getty Images

    The countries’ commitments will go into what’s known as a “loss and damage” fund in U.N. jargon. The money is intended to help compensate for the destruction wrought by extreme weather and other consequences of global warming.

    Delegates from nearly 200 countries signed off on the initiative only hours into the summit, a positive sign given the issue was mired in fractious talks in the weeks before COP. 

    The U.S. pledge, small as it was, was still notable given that Washington has historically been reluctant to offer specific dollar amounts for the new fund. In recent weeks Biden administration officials have indicated their support for the fund but said they wanted to see it finalized before considering donations.

    That said, even the $17.5 million may never come to fruition, as the White House could need sign-off from a Republican-controlled House that has been hostile to such efforts and is already stymied on other international aid decisions. 

    Still, U.S. climate envoy John Kerry was bullish on Thursday. 

    “We also expect the fund to be up and running quickly,” he said. “We expect that will help address priority gaps in the current landscape of support, and we expect it will draw from a wide variety of sources.”

    In the absence of direct bilateral aid, the U.S. is working to draw in more money from the private sector and has supported the idea of funding from more innovative sources, which could include things like levies on air travel. 

    Behind the U.S. was Japan, which said it would give $10 million. 

    “While the overall signal from today’s pledges is positive, it is disappointing that the United States and Japan chipped in so little,” said Ani Dasgupta, president of the World Resources Institute. “Given the size of their economies, there is simply no excuse for their contributions to be far eclipsed by others.”

    Dasgupta called the UAE pledge “particularly notable,” since it broadens the group of nations providing climate finance.

    Making history

    The deluge of announcements came after delegates approved the framework for the new climate disaster fund, a landmark decision that prompted a standing ovation at the summit.

    “We have delivered history today,” COP28 President Sultan al-Jaber — who also heads the UAE’s state-owned oil company — told delegates, adding that this marks “the first time a decision has been adopted on Day One at any COP.” 

    Sultan al-Jaber heads the UAE’s state-owned oil company | Mark Felix/AFP via Getty Images

    Delegations and civil society organizations broadly welcomed Thursday’s announcements and U.N. climate chief Simon Stiell said the development gave the conference “a running start.” 

    But some warned of a yawning gap between the initial pledges and countries’ financing needs.

    “The initial funding pledges are clearly inadequate and will be a drop in the ocean compared to the scale of the need they are to address,” said Mohamed Adow, director of the nonprofit Power Shift Africa. 

    “In particular, the amount announced by the U.S. is embarrassing for President Biden and John Kerry,” he added. “It just shows how this must be just the start.”

    As for China, “I don’t think they will pledge,” said Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute. “But this highlights the urgency for China to consider its evolving responsibilities when it comes to finance.” 

    Still, the $200 million from Germany and the UAE will cover the cost of getting the fund set up under the World Bank, allowing additional pledges to flow into the fund itself. 

    “This day is doubly auspicious due to the immediate commencement of the capitalization process,” said Pa’olelei Luteru, a Samoan diplomat who chairs an alliance of island nations long pushing for the fund. 

    “This is an encouraging beginning,” he added, “but there is much work ahead of us.”

    Zia Weise reported from Dubai. Sara Schonhardt reported from Washington, D.C.

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  • Putin’s buddy Orbán pushes EU to the brink over Ukraine

    Putin’s buddy Orbán pushes EU to the brink over Ukraine

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    Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán regularly pushes the EU to the cliff edge, but diplomats are panicking that his hostility to Ukraine is now about to finally kick the bloc over the precipice.

    A brewing political crisis is set to boil over at a summit in mid-December when EU leaders are due to make a historic decision on bringing Ukraine into the 27-nation club and seal a key budget deal to throw a €50 billion lifeline to Kyiv’s flailing war economy. The meeting is supposed to signal to the U.S. that, despite the political distraction over the war in the Middle East, the EU is fully committed to Ukraine. 

    Those hopes look likely to be knocked off course by Orbán, a strongman who cultivates close ties with Russian dictator Vladimir Putin and who is widely seen as having undermined democracy and rule of law at home. He is demanding the whole political and financial process should be put on ice until leaders agree to a wholesale review of EU support for Kyiv.

    That gives EU leaders a massive headache. Although Hungary only represents 2 percent of the EU population, Orbán can hold the bloc hostage as it is supposed to act unanimously on big strategic decisions — and they hardly come bigger than initiating accession talks with Ukraine.

    It’s far from the first time Orbán is throwing a spanner in the works of the EU’s sausage making machine. Indeed, he has been the most vocal opponent of sanctions against Russia ever since Putin’s annexation of Crimea in 2014. But this time is different, EU diplomats and officials said. 

    “We are heading toward a major crisis,” one EU official said, who was granted anonymity to discuss confidential deliberations. One senior EU diplomat warned this could become “one of the most difficult European Councils.”  

    Orbán is playing the long game, said Péter Krekó, director of the Budapest-based Political Capital Institute. “Orbán has been waiting for Europe to realize that it’s not possible to win the war in Ukraine and that Kyiv has to make concessions. (…) Now, he feels his time is coming because Ukraine fatigue is going up in public opinion in many EU countries.”

    In theory, there is a nuclear option on the table — one that would cut Hungary out of EU political decisions — but countries feel that emergency cord is toxic because of the precedent it would deliver on EU disunity and fragmentation. For now, the European leaders seem to be taking to their usual approach of fawning courtship of the EU’s bad boy to try to coax out a compromise.

    European Council President Charles Michel, whose job it is to forge deals between the 27 leaders, is leading the softly-softly pursuit of a compromise. He travelled to Budapest earlier this week for an intense two hour discussion with Orbán. While the meeting did not reach an immediate break-through, it was useful to understand Orbán’s concerns, another EU official said.

    It’s all about the money

    Some EU diplomats interpret Orbán’s threats as a strategy to raise pressure on the European Commission, which is holding back €13 billion in EU funds for Hungary over concerns that the country is falling foul of the EU’s standards on rule of law. 

    Others however said it’s a mistake not to look beyond the immediate transactional tactics. Orbán has long been questioning the EU’s Ukraine strategy, but was largely ignored or portrayed as a puppet for Russian President Vladimir Putin. 

    “We were watching it, amazed, but maybe we didn’t take enough time to actually listen,” a second senior EU diplomat acknowledged.

    Some EU diplomats interpret Orbán’s threats as a strategy to raise pressure on the European Commission | Peter Kohalmi/AFP via Getty Images

    Increasingly, the leader of the Fidesz party has been isolated in Brussels. Previous peacemakers such as former German Chancellor Angela Merkel or other Orbán-whisperers from the so-called Visegrád Four — Slovakia, Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic — are no longer there. The expected comeback of Donald Tusk for Poland, a pro-EU and anti-Russian leader, will only heighten Orbán’s status as the lonely, defiant hold-out.

    “There is no one left to talk sense into Orbán,” a third EU official said. “He is now undermining the EU from within.”

    Guns on the table

    As frustration grows, the EU is weighing how to deal with the Hungarian threats.

    In theory, Brussels could come out with the big guns and use the EU’s so-called Article 7 procedure against Hungary, used when a country is considered at risk of breaching the bloc’s core values. The procedure is sometimes called the EU’s “nuclear option” as it provides for the most serious political sanction the bloc can impose on a member country — the suspension of the right to vote on EU decisions.

    Because of those far-reaching consequences, there is reticence to roll out this option against Hungary. When EU leaders brought in “diplomatic sanctions” against Austria in 2000, the day after the party of Austrian far-right leader Jörg Haider entered the coalition, it backfired. Many Austrians were angry at EU interference and anti-EU sentiment soared. Sanctions were lifted later that year. 

    There is now a widespread feeling in Brussels that Article 7 could create a similar backlash in Budapest, fueling populism and in the longer term potentially even trigger a snowball effect leading to an unintended Hungarian exit of the bloc.

    Given those fears, diplomats are doubling down on ways to work around a Hungarian veto.

    One option is to split the €50 billion from 2024 to 2027 for Ukraine into smaller amounts on an annual basis, three officials said. But critics warn this option would fall short in the goal of offering greater predictability and certainty to Ukraine’s struggling public finances. It would also send a bad political signal: if the EU can’t make a long term commitment to Ukraine, then how can it ask the U.S. to do the same? 

    The same dilemma goes for the EU’s planned military aid. EU countries could use bilateral deals rather than EU structures such as the European Peace Facility to send military aid to Ukraine — effectively freezing out Budapest. Yet this would mean that the EU as such plays no role in providing weapons, an admission of impotence that is hard to swallow and hurts EU unity toward Kyiv.

    It’s “obvious” that concern is growing about EU political support for Ukraine, Lithuania’s Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis told POLITICO. “At first it’s Hungary, now, more countries are doubtful whether there’s a path.” 

    Asked about Hungary’s objections, Ruslan Stefanchuk, the chairman of Ukraine’s parliament, told POLITICO: “Ukraine is going to the European Union and Ukraine has followed all the recommendations (…) I want to make sure that all member states respect the progress that Ukraine has demonstrated.” 

    The long game 

    That leaves one other default option, and it’s an EU classic: kicking the can down the road and pushing key decisions on Ukraine policy to early next year. Apart from Hungary, Berlin is also struggling with the consequences of Germany’s top court wiping out €60 billion from a climate fund — thus creating a huge hole in its budget. 

    Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán, center, during a summit in Brussels | Nicolas Maeterlinck/Belga via AFP/Getty Images

    Such a delay would also lead to stories about fractured EU unity, said another EU diplomat. But “in the real world it wouldn’t be a problem because the Ukraine budget is fine until March 2024.”

    But for others, buying time is tricky. Europe is heading to the polls in June next year, which makes sensitive decision-making harder. “Getting closer to the elections will not make things easier,” the second EU official said, while stressing that fast decisions are key for Ukraine. “For Zelenskyy, this is existential to keep up morale on the battlefield.”

    Both, like another official quoted in this story, were granted anonymity to speak freely.

    Increasingly, Brussels is also worried about Orbán’s long game. 

    There is a constant stream of attacks coming from Budapest against Brussels, on issues ranging from democratic deficit to culture wars over the EU’s migration policy. The latest example is an aggressive euroskeptic advertising campaign featuring posters targeting European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen herself. The posters show von der Leyen next to Alexander Soros, the son of George Soros, chair of the Open Society Foundations, with the line: “Let’s not dance to the tune they whistle!”

    “Nobody feels comfortable given what’s going on in Hungary,” Budget Commissioner Johannes Hahn told reporters on Thursday. “It’s very difficult to digest given the campaign that he’s leading against the EU and against the president. When he’s asking his people many things, he’s not asking if the Union is so much worse than USSR why is he not leaving?”

    But Orbán seems more eager to hijack the EU from within rather than jump ship, as the U.K. did. Increasingly, he also feels the wind is blowing his way after the recent election results in Slovakia and the Netherlands, said Krekó, where the winners are on the same page as him when it comes to Ukraine, migration or gender issues.

    Hungary’s prime minister was quick to congratulate the winner of the Dutch election, the vehemently anti-EU Geert Wilders, saying that “the winds of change are here.” 

    “Orbán plays the long game,” the third EU official said. “With Wilders, one or two more far-right leaders in Europe and a potential return of Trump he could soon be less isolated than we all think.”

    Gregorio Sorgi, Nicolas Camut, Stuart Lau and Jakob Hanke Vela contributed reporting.

    CORRECTION: This story has been amended to correct a quote on Ukraine’s budget.

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  • France, Germany deplore Paris knife attack that left German man dead

    France, Germany deplore Paris knife attack that left German man dead

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    The French president and Germany’s foreign affairs minister condemned Saturday’s knife attack in Paris that injured two and left a German national dead. Anti-terrorism prosecutors have opened an investigation into the assault.

    Police arrested a 26-year-old Frenchman, who had been on the security services watchlist, soon after the attack Saturday night near the Eiffel Tower. Officials said the victim was with his wife when he was attacked and fatally stabbed on Quai de Grenelle.

    “I send all my condolences to the family and loved ones of the German national who died this evening during the terrorist attack in Paris,” French President Emmanuel Macron said on X. “The national anti-terrorism prosecutor’s office … will be responsible for shedding light on this matter so that justice can be done in the name of the French people,” he said.

    Emergency services treated the two injured, a French national and a foreign tourist, whose wounds are not life-threatening.

    Following his arrest, the assailant told police he was distressed over how “many Muslims are dying in Afghanistan and in Palestine,” France’s interior minister, Gérald Darmanin, told reporters late Saturday. The suspect had served four years in jail for planning another attack in 2016.

    “Shocking news from Paris,” German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock posted online. “My thoughts are with the friends and family of the young German who was killed in the suspected Islamist attack. Almost his entire life lay ahead of him,” she said. “Hate and terror have no place in Europe,” Baerbock said.

    The two people injured in the incident were a Frenchman aged around 60 and a British tourist, the BBC reported. Neither was found to be in a life-threatening condition, it said.

    Saturday’s incident comes less than two months after a similar incident in the northern French city of Arras. A teacher was slain and two people wounded in a knife attack at a school in Arras in mid-October.

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    Bjarke Smith-Meyer

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  • Nuclear’s uncertain role in the shift away from fossil fuels is seen as critical and very contentious

    Nuclear’s uncertain role in the shift away from fossil fuels is seen as critical and very contentious

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    Cooling towers at a nuclear power plant in Slovakia. Nuclear power is likely to be discussed in great detail at the COP28 climate change summit in Dubai, United Arab Emirates.

    Janos Kummer | Getty Images News | Getty Images

    The role that nuclear power should play in creating a more sustainable future has long provoked strong feelings — among advocates and critics alike.

    It’s set to be a hot topic at the COP28 summit in Dubai, which begins this week. There are reports that there will be a concerted effort to get behind a big increase in nuclear capacity from now to 2050.

    Of particular interest to observers will be a ministerial event called “Atoms4NetZero” on Dec. 5. Co-hosted by the International Atomic Energy Agency and the COP28 presidency, the event will “announce the IAEA Statement on Nuclear Power,” according to the COP28 website.

    That, it adds, reflects the “critical role of nuclear in the net zero transition.”

    Atoms4NetZero was namechecked by the World Nuclear Association in September when it announced the launch of an initiative called "Net Zero Nuclear," which aims to triple the planet's nuclear capacity by the middle of the century.

    In a statement issued alongside that announcement, Rafael Mariano Grossi, the IAEA's director general, stressed the importance of the coming climate summit.

    "Building on the efforts made during COP 26 and COP 27, nuclear energy will feature even more prominently at COP28," he said.

    "As more nations understand the role nuclear can play in achieving energy security and decarbonisation targets, global support for nuclear energy is growing," he added.

    The IAEA, for its part, will also have its own "Atoms4Climate" pavilion at COP28, where it says it will "showcase how nuclear technology and science are addressing the twin challenge of climate change mitigation and adaptation."

    A major debate

    In a sign of how polarizing the debate around the subject can be, this month, the leader of Germany's center-right Christian Democratic Union lamented his country's move away from nuclear power after the closure of its last three plants in April 2023.

    "The German government took a decision which was in our view absolutely wrong, a strategic mistake to get out of nuclear," Friedrich Merz told CNBC's Annette Weisbach.

    Merz — whose party is not in the coalition government led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz — said rather than focusing only on wind and solar, "all energy sources" need to be utilized.

    "The energy supply — for this country, for our industry — is decisive for our competitiveness," he went on to state.

    High-profile figures in the German government do not share Merz's viewpoint.

    "The phase-out of nuclear power makes our country safer; ultimately, the risks of nuclear power are uncontrollable," Steffi Lemke, Germany's federal minister for the environment and nuclear safety, said in April.

    "We now face decades full of challenges before we can safely and responsibly dispose of our nuclear legacy," she later added.

    "But switching off the final three nuclear power plants will usher in a new era in energy production."

    This kind of analysis — that nuclear is not the answer — is shared by environmental organizations like Greenpeace.

    "Nuclear power is touted as a solution to our energy problems, but in reality it's complex and hugely expensive to build," its website says. "It also creates huge amounts of hazardous waste."

    "Renewable energy is cheaper and can be installed quickly," it added. "Together with battery storage, it can generate the power we need and slash our emissions."

    While Germany — Europe's largest economy — has moved away from nuclear, other countries are looking to expand their capacity.

    They include the U.K., which says it wants to deliver as many as 24 gigawatts by 2050, and Sweden, which is looking to construct new reactors.

    France, a major player in nuclear power, is also planning to increase its number of reactors.

    Stock picks and investing trends from CNBC Pro:

    Energy markets are still affected by the shocks from Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and discussions about nuclear power are not going away anytime soon.

    "Amid today's global energy crisis, reducing reliance on imported fossil fuels has become the top energy security priority," noted the International Energy Agency, viewed by many as a leading authority on the energy transition.

    "No less important is the climate crisis: reaching net zero emissions of greenhouse gases by mid-century requires a rapid and complete decarbonisation of electricity generation and heat production," it added.

    "Nuclear energy, with around 413 gigawatts (GW) of capacity operating in 32 countries, contributes to both goals by avoiding 1.5 gigatonnes (Gt) of global emissions and 180 billion cubic metres (bcm) of global gas demand a year."

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  • Russia is holding next year’s global climate summit ‘hostage’ 

    Russia is holding next year’s global climate summit ‘hostage’ 

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    Think the location of this year’s global climate summit is contentious? Wait till you hear about the next one. 

    When COP28 kicks off next week in the United Arab Emirates, the oil kingdom presiding over the talks will face pressure to show its fossil fuel interests won’t capture negotiations.

    But at least the conference has a host. Next year’s summit, COP29, is currently homeless. 

    That’s because regional tensions have created a deadlock. The conference is meant to take place in Eastern Europe, but Russia is preventing any European Union country from hosting, while warring neighbors Azerbaijan and Armenia are blocking each other, and no one has been able to agree on a way forward.

    The result: COP29 is in limbo, and global efforts to secure a liveable future risk being left leaderless. If no one picks up the baton, the current host may remain in place until COP30 starts in 2025 — likely leaving the UAE in charge of talks on major decisions like a new finance goal and getting governments to commit to post-2030 climate targets. 

    Officially, Russia’s line of reasoning “is that they don’t believe that Bulgaria or any other EU country will be impartial in running COP29,” said Julian Popov, the environment minister for Bulgaria, which has offered to host next year’s climate summit.

    But behind closed doors, “their argument is that they are being blocked by EU countries about various things in relation to the war against Ukraine,” he told POLITICO in an interview. 

    “They are,” he said, “basically retaliating.” 

    The dispute now risks disrupting both COP28 and COP29, as diplomats scramble to resolve the issue before departing Dubai in mid-December. 

    “Russia has chosen to hold these negotiations almost hostage,” said Tom Evans, policy advisor on climate diplomacy and geopolitics at think tank E3G. 

    Race against time

    The hosting dispute is inflaming geopolitical tensions heading into COP28, which takes place amid growing global discord related to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Israel-Hamas war, and an evolving debt crisis looming over developing nations. 

    The COP climate summits typically rotate among the United Nations’ five regional groups, and next year is Eastern Europe’s turn. The 23-country Eastern Europe group has to decide on the host country by consensus. 

    COP28 President-Designate Dr. Sultan Al Jaber | Bryan Bedder/Getty Images for Bloomberg Philanthropies

    In the past, that wasn’t hard: The COP conference would just rubber-stamp the host chosen by the regional group. Now, however, the decision will have to be taken at the height of tricky talks on a host of issues ranging from the future of fossil fuels to financial help for poorer countries. 

    “It’s unfortunate,” said Popov, that the hosting dispute may “distract” from the actual negotiations in Dubai. 

    Then there’s the issue of preparation. COP locations are usually chosen well in advance — the UAE was announced as host in 2021, and COP30 will take place in Brazil — to allow host cities to ready themselves for the arrival of tens of thousands of delegates. 

    The host country usually, but not always, also takes on the COP presidency, which plays a crucial role in leading negotiations before, during and after the summit.  

    “We still don’t know who will run the process next year,” Popov said. “This is damaging the whole COP process and will inevitably have a negative impact on the quality of negotiations.” 

    Among the key issues to be settled at COP29 is a new financial target for funding climate action in developing countries from 2025 onward. Ahead of COP30, countries are meant to submit a new round of climate pledges, including targets to reduce emissions by 2035.

    “You really need months of diplomacy in advance to set these COPs up for success,” Evans said. 

    Geopolitical stalemate

    Besides Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Belarus and Armenia also said last year they would throw their hats in the ring for 2024. 

    Prague eventually withdrew, proposing instead to host the annual pre-COP summit ahead of the main event in Bulgaria. But this past spring, Russia sent an email to other Eastern European representatives saying it would prevent EU countries from hosting, accusing them of blocking Russia-backed countries. 

    The email, obtained by Reuters, read: “It is reasonable to believe that EU countries, driven by politics from Brussels, do not have the capacity to serve as honest and effective brokers of global climate negotiations under the UNFCCC,” the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change. 

    In the summer, Azerbaijan joined the race to host COP29 — a few months before launching a large-scale offensive to retake the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region, forcing tens of thousands to flee to Armenia. 

    Azerbaijan and Armenia are now opposing each other’s bids, said Gayane Gabrielyan, Armenia’s deputy environment minister. 

    “Russia is blocking any EU country, and Armenia and Azerbaijan can’t find a solution,” she told POLITICO. “We have more than 100,000 refugees … In this situation, we will not be able to discuss anything with them.” 

    The foreign and environment ministries of Russia and Azerbaijan did not respond to requests for comment. 

    The Eastern Europeans could also swap with another regional group or a specific country outside the region to host — like Spain stepped in for Chile in 2019 — but that would also require consensus, as well as the formal withdrawal of all host candidates. 

    “The only option now is going to Bonn,” Gabrielyan said. “The motherland of the UNFCCC.” 

    Bonn-bound? 

    Bonn is where the U.N. climate body is headquartered. The conference guidelines indicate that the summit would default to the former West German capital if no agreement is found among the Eastern European group. 

    But hosting a climate conference “isn’t trivial,” Evans said. “There’s a cost involved, and there’s a huge logistical headache.” 

    Several European diplomats, granted anonymity to discuss sensitive matters, told POLITICO that Germany was less than keen, something German officials would neither confirm nor deny. 

    Asked if Germany was prepared to host, a foreign office spokesperson said that discussions within the Eastern European group were ongoing, “with the aim of COP28 taking a decision.” 

    While Bonn may end up serving as the venue, the presidency would likely remain in the hands of the UAE if the Eastern Europeans can’t find consensus, a spokesperson for the U.N. climate body said. 

    Yet the UAE, which has faced a barrage of criticism since naming national oil company CEO Sultan al-Jaber as conference president, appears reluctant to continue in its role.

    COP28 Director-General Majid al-Suwaidi said last month that his country would not host again. Asked to clarify whether that also meant not extending the presidency, a COP28 spokesperson declined to comment.

    The predicament has prompted Bulgaria to suggest a novel solution to, as Popov put it, “save COP29” —  splitting the mega-event across several nations in Eastern Europe. 

    “Here’s what we suggested: A distributed COP — have the pre-COP, the presidency and the COP held by three different countries, and have some events organized in different Eastern European countries,” he said. 

    But that, too, would need the backing of all regional group members. Gabrielyan said Armenia was “ready to discuss” this option, but that Azerbaijan had signaled opposition. 

    The uncertainty over who will host COP29 may come with one positive side-effect, however: Diplomats might be wary of postponing difficult decisions to next year. 

    “It’s not uncommon for COPs, when they reach some of the trickiest issues, to kick the can down the road,” said Evans. “I don’t feel like this is an option this time.” 

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  • Germany chokes on its own austerity medicine

    Germany chokes on its own austerity medicine

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    BERLIN — Germans gave the world schadenfreude for a reason. And southern Europe couldn’t be more pleased.

    For countries that spent years on the receiving end of Europe’s German-inspired fiscal Inquisition, there’s no sweeter sight than to see Germany splayed on the high altar of Teutonic parsimony. 

    The irony is that Germany put itself there on purpose and has no clue how it will find redemption.

    A jaw-dropping constitutional court ruling earlier this month effectively rendered the core of the German government’s legislative agenda null and void left the country in a collective shock. In order to circumvent Germany’s self-imposed deficit strictures, which give governments little room to spend more than they collect in taxes, Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition relied on a network of “special funds” outside the main budget. Scholz was convinced the government could tap the money without violating the so-called debt brake.

    The court, in no uncertain terms, disagreed. The ruling raises questions about the government’s ability to access a total of €869 billion parked outside the federal budget in 29 “special funds.” The court’s move forced the government to both freeze new spending and put approval of next year’s budget on hold.

    Nearly two weeks after the decision, both the magnitude of the ruling and the reality that there’s no easy way out have become increasingly clear. Though Scholz has promised to come up with a new plan “very quickly,” few see a resolution without imposing austerity.

    The expectation in the Bundestag is that Scholz will find enough cuts to deal with the immediate €20 billion hole the decision created in next year’s budget, but not much more.

    In the meantime, his government is on edge. While Economy Minister Robert Habeck, a Green, has been telling any microphone he can find that Germany’s economic future is hanging in the balance, Finance Minister Christian Lindner has triggered panic and confusion by announcing a series of ill-defined spending freezes.

    On Thursday, the government was forced to deny a report that a special fund created to bolster Germany’s armed forces after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine would be affected by the cuts. 

    At a press conference with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni late Wednesday, Scholz endured the humiliation of a reporter asking his guest whether she considered Germany to be a reliable partner given its budget crisis. A magnanimous Meloni, whose country knows a thing or two about creative accounting, gave Scholz a shot in the arm, responding that in her experience he was “very reliable.” 

    Greek accounting

    Between the lines, the justices of Germany’s constitutional court suggested the use of the shadow funds by Scholz’s coalition amounted to a bookkeeping sleight of hand — the same sort of accounting alchemy Berlin upbraided Greece for more than a decade ago. Perhaps unwittingly, the court ruling echoed then-Chancellor Angela Merkel’s unsolicited advice to Athens during Greece’s debt crisis: “Now is the time to do the homework!”

    For eurozone countries with a recent history of debt trouble — a group that alongside Greece includes the likes of Spain, Portugal and Italy — Germany’s financial pickle must feel like déjà vu all over again. From 2010 onwards, they found themselves in the unenviable position of trying to explain to Wolfgang Schäuble, Merkel’s taskmaster finance minister, how they planned to return to the path of fiscal rectitude. At Schäuble’s urging, Greece nearly ditched the euro altogether.

    The expectation in the Bundestag is that Scholz will find enough cuts to deal with the immediate €20 billion hole the decision created in next year’s budget, but not much more | Odd Andersen/AFP via Getty Images

    In recent months, Germany has once again assumed the role of the fiscal scold in Brussels, where officials have been negotiating a new framework for the eurozone’s rulebook on government spending, known as the Stability and Growth Pact. The pact, which dates to 1997, has been suspended since the pandemic hit, but it is set to take effect again next year. Many countries want to loosen the rules given the huge budget pressures that have followed multiple crises in recent years. Berlin is open to reform but skeptical of granting its fellow euro countries too much leeway on spending.

    The latest budget mess certainly won’t help the Germans make their case.

    Simple hubris

    The allure of the strategy the court has now deemed illegal was that the government thought it could spend money it salted away in the special funds without violating Germany’s constitutional debt brake, which restricts the federal deficit to 0.35 percent of GDP, except in times of emergency.

    Put simply, Scholz’s coalition wanted to have its cake and eat it too, creating a veneer of fiscal discipline while spending freely to finance an ambitious agenda.

    Despite ample warning from legal experts that the government’s plan to repurpose a huge chunk of emergency pandemic-related funds might not withstand a court challenge, Scholz and his partners went ahead anyway. What’s more, they staked their entire political agenda on the assumption that the strategy would go off without a hitch.

    Last week’s court decision is the national equivalent of a rich kid being cut off from his trust fund: Daddy’s money is still there, but junior can’t touch it and has to exchange his Porsche for an Opel.

    What many in Berlin cite as the main reason for what they are calling der Schlamassel  (fiasco), however, is simple hubris.

    Scholz’s mild-mannered public persona belies a know-it-all approach to governing. A lawyer by training who has served for decades in the top ranks of German government, Scholz, at least in his own mind, is generally the smartest person in the room.  

    During coalition negotiations in 2021, Scholz sold the budget trick idea to his future partners — the conservative liberal Free Democrats (FDP) and the Greens — as a way to square the circle between the welfare agenda of his own Social Democrats (SPD), the Greens’ expensive climate agenda, and the FDP’s demands for fiscal rigor (or at least the appearance thereof).

    Indeed, it’s doubtful the coalition would have ever been formed in the first place without the plan. The Greens and FDP happily went along; after all Scholz, Germany’s finance minister from 2018-2021, knew what he was doing. Or so they thought. 

    Finance minister or ‘fuck-up’?

    Scholz’s role notwithstanding, his successor as finance minister, FDP leader Christian Lindner, shares a lot of the responsibility for the snafu, for the simple reason that it was his ministry that oversaw the strategy. 

    During the coalition talks in 2021, Lindner was torn between a desire to govern and the fiscal strictures long championed by his party. Scholz offered him what appeared to be an elegant way to do both. 

    Scholz’s role notwithstanding, his successor as finance minister, FDP leader Christian Lindner, shares a lot of the responsibility for the snafu | Sean Gallup/Getty Images

    When Lindner, who had never served in an executive government role before, was poised to secure the finance ministry, some critics questioned his qualifications to lead the financial affairs of Europe’s largest economy. 

    POLITICO once asked the question more directly: “Finance minister or ‘fuck-up’?” 

    Many Germans have no doubt made their determinations in recent weeks. 

    Green machine 

    In contrast to the FDP, the Greens, had no qualms about endorsing Scholz’s bookkeeping tricks. 

    When it comes to realizing the Greens’ environmental goals, the ends have long justified the means. 

    In the early 2000s, for example, party leaders sold Germans on the idea of switching off the country’s nuclear plants and transitioning to renewables. They won the argument by promising that the subsidies consumers would be forced to finance to pay for the rollout of solar and wind power wouldn’t cost more every month than a “scoop of ice cream.”

    In the end, the collective annual bill for German households was €25 billion, enough to have cornered the global ice cream market many times over. 

    The Greens’ ice cream strategy — secure difficult-to-reverse legislative commitments and worry about the financial details later — also informed their approach to what they call the “social, ecological transformation,” a plan to make Germany’s economy carbon neutral. 

    That’s why the shock of the court decision has hit the Greens hardest. After more than 15 years in opposition, the Greens saw the alliance with Scholz and Lindner as the culmination of their effort to convince Germans to embrace their ecological vision for the future. Just as the hoped-for revolution was within reach, it has slipped from their grasp.

    Habeck, the face of the Green transformation, has looked like a man at his wits’ end in recent days, making dire predictions about the coming economic Armageddon.

    “This marks a turning point for both the German economy and the job market,” Habeck told German public television this week, predicting that it would become much more difficult for the country to maintain the level of prosperity it has enjoyed for decades. 

    Road to perdition 

    For all his candor, Habeck failed to address the elephant in the room: It’s a fake debt crisis.

    There is no objective reason for Germany to be in this dilemma. A best-of-class credit rating means Berlin can borrow money on better terms than almost any country on the planet. With a budget deficit of 2.6 percent of GDP last year and a total debt load amounting to 66 percent of GDP, Germany is also well above average compared to its eurozone peers in terms of fiscal discipline — even counting the debt raised for the special funds. 

    The only reason Germany can’t spend the money in the special funds is not because it can’t afford to, but rather because it remains beholden to an almost religious fiscal orthodoxy that views deficit debt as the road to perdition. 

    That conviction prompted Germany to anchor the so-called debt brake in its constitution in 2009, thereby allowing the government to run only a minor deficit, barring a natural disaster or other emergency, such as a war. 

    For eurozone countries with a recent history of debt trouble — a group that alongside Greece includes the likes of Spain, Portugal and Italy — Germany’s financial pickle must feel like déjà vu all over again | Aris Messinis/AFP via Getty Images

    The constitutional amendment passed by a comfortable margin with broad support from both the Christian Democrats (CDU) and the SPD, which shared power in a grand coalition led by Merkel. At the time, Germany was still recovering from the shock triggered by the 2008 collapse of investment bank Lehman Brothers and had to commit billions to shore up its banking sector.

    The country’s federal government and states had begun planning a reform of fiscal rules even before the crisis. The emergency gave them additional impetus to pursue a debt brake enshrined in the constitution as a way to restore public trust. 

    In that respect, it worked as planned. As countries such as Greece and Spain struggled with their public finances in the years that followed, Germany’s debt brake looked prescient. 

    Even as southern Europe struggled, the German economy went into high gear powered by strong demand for its wares from Asia and North America, allowing the government to not just balance its budget but to run a string of surpluses, peaking in 2018 with a €58 billion windfall.

    Goodbye to all that

    The good times ended with the pandemic. Germany, along with the rest of the world, was forced to dig deep. It had the fiscal capacity to do so, however, as the pandemic justified lifting the debt brake in both 2020 and 2021.

    The fallout from Russia’s attack on Ukraine forced the government to do so again in 2022. 

    By drawing from special funds, Scholz and Lindner believed they could avoid a repeat in 2023. But the court’s ruling dashed that plan. 

    Long before the current crisis, it had become clear to most in government — both conservative and left-leaning — that the debt brake was a hampering investment in public infrastructure (Merkel’s coalition emphasized paying down debt instead of investing the surpluses) and, by extension, Germany’s economic competitiveness. Hence the liberal use of the now-closed special fund loophole. 

    Trouble is, even as many politicians have woken up to the perils of the debt brake, the public remains strongly in favor of it. Nearly two-thirds of Germans continue to support the measure, according to a poll published this week by Der Spiegel. 

    Repealing or even reforming the brake would require Germany’s political class not just to convince them otherwise, but also to muster a super majority in parliament, which at the moment is unlikely.  

    Late Thursday, the finance minister signaled that the debt brake would have to fall for 2023 as well. That means the government will have to retroactively declare an emergency — likely in connection with the war in Ukraine — and then hope that the constitutional court buys it. 

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    Matthew Karnitschnig

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  • UAE plotted to use COP28 to push for oil and gas deals, leaked notes show

    UAE plotted to use COP28 to push for oil and gas deals, leaked notes show

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    The world’s top climate summit has become embroiled in a hypocrisy scandal, days before the start of key talks.

    The United Arab Emirates (UAE) schemed to use its position as host country of the imminent COP28 United Nations climate talks to discuss oil and gas deals with more than a dozen countries, leaked documents published by the BBC show.

    Briefing notes prepared by the UAE’s COP28 team for meetings with foreign governments during the summit, which starts Thursday in Dubai, include talking points from the Emirati state oil and renewable energy companies, according to documents published Monday by the Centre for Climate Reporting.

    Germany, for example, is to be told that the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) — whose CEO, Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber, is COP28’s president — “stand[s] ready to expand LNG supplies to Germany.”

    The briefing notes for China say that ADNOC is “willing to jointly evaluate international LNG opportunities (Mozambique, Canada, and Australia).”

    They also propose telling oil-rich giants Saudi Arabia and Venezuela that “there is no conflict between sustainable development of any country’s natural resources and its commitment to climate change.”

    With COP28 just days away, the leaked documents have cast a shadow over the start of the crucial forum.

    Zakia Khattabi, Belgium’s climate minister, told POLITICO: “If confirmed, these news reports add to the existing concerns regarding the COP28 presidency. The credibility of the U.N. climate negotiations is essential and is at stake here.”

    The documents also sparked an outcry from climate NGOs.

    In a statement, Greenpeace’s Policy Coordinator Kaisa Kosonen said, “if the allegations are true, this is totally unacceptable and a real scandal.”

    “The climate summit leader should be focused on advancing climate solutions impartially, not backroom deals that are fuelling the crisis,” Kosonen said.

    “The significant representation of EU and European countries in this list is alarming and a direct contradiction to the EU’s position to achieve a phase out of fossil fuels at this year’s COP,” Chiara Martinelli, director of Climate Action Network Europe, said in a written statement to POLITICO.

    “Any deal with the UAE’s oil and gas companies is a slap in the face of the U.N. process on climate change,” Martinelli added.

    The documents also include estimates of ADNOC’s commercial interests in the targeted countries, as well as an outline of energy infrastructure projects led by Masdar, the UAE’s state renewable energy company.

    ADNOC’s business ties with China, for example, are valued at $15 billion over the past year, while those with the United Kingdom are worth $4 billion and the Netherlands’ stand at $2 billion.

    Every year, the country hosting COP appoints a president to lead negotiations between countries. The president meets foreign dignitaries and is expected to “rais[e] ambition to tackle climate change internationally,” according to the U.N.

    Home to some of the largest oil reserves in the world, the UAE has attracted criticism for appointing al-Jaber as COP president in spite of his role as chief of the country’s national oil company. Al-Jaber is also chairman of the board of directors of the national renewable energy company.

    In a statement, a COP28 spokesperson said: “The documents referred to in the BBC article are inaccurate and were not used by COP28 in meetings. It is extremely disappointing to see the BBC use unverified documents in their reporting.”

    This article has been updated to clarify Ahmed al-Jaber’s role at the national renewable energy company and to add comments fro, COP28 and Greenpeace.

    Barbara Moens contributed reporting.

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    Nicolas Camut

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  • German Police Raid Supporters of Hamas

    German Police Raid Supporters of Hamas

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    BERLIN — Hundreds of police officers searched the properties of Hamas members and followers in Germany on Thursday morning following a formal ban on any activity by or in support of the militant group.

    The German government implemented the ban on Nov. 2 and dissolved Samidoun, a group that was behind a celebration in Berlin of Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack on Israel.

    Germany’s domestic intelligence service estimates that Hamas has around 450 members in the country. Their activities range from expressions of sympathy and propaganda activities to financing and fundraising activities to strengthen the organization abroad.

    Read More: Israel and Hamas Reach Deal to Pause Fighting, Free at Least 50 Hostages

    “We are continuing our consistent action against radical Islamists,” German Interior Minister Nancy Faeser said. “By banning Hamas and Samidoun in Germany, we have sent a clear signal that we will not tolerate any glorification or support of Hamas’ barbaric terror against Israel.”

    The raids, which mostly took place in Berlin, were meant to enforce the bans and to further investigate the groups, the German interior ministry said in a statement.

    A total of 15 properties were searched in Berlin and the states of Lower Saxony, North Rhine-Westphalia and Schleswig-Holstein.

    Read More: What the World Gets Wrong About Hamas

    In Berlin alone, more than 300 police officers carried out searches at 11 locations in order to seize evidence and assets. Seven searches were related to Hamas and four to Samidoun. The searches mainly took place at the homes of supporters and the premises of a Palestinian association, German news agency dpa reported.

    Germany has been clamping down on groups supporting antisemitism in the wake of the latest Israel-Hamas war.

    On Tuesday, police raided the homes of 17 people in the southern German state of Bavaria who were accused of spreading antisemitic hate speech and threats targeting Jews online. On Nov. 16, German police raided 54 locations across the country in an investigation of a Hamburg-based organization suspected of promoting the Iranian leadership’s ideology and possibly supporting activities of Hezbollah in Germany.

    Read More: In Europe, Free Speech Is Under Threat for Pro-Palestine Protesters

    “We are keeping a close eye on the Islamist scene,” Faeser said. “Islamists and antisemites cannot and must not feel safe anywhere here.” She said the members and supporters of Hamas in Germany are also committed to influencing the political and social discourse in the country.

    Hamas has vowed to annihilate Israel and has been responsible for many suicide bombings and other deadly attacks on civilians and Israeli soldiers. After the group’s incursion into Israel in October, Israel vowed to wipe out Hamas.

    The U.S. State Department designated Hamas a terrorist group in 1997. The European Union and other Western countries also consider it a terrorist organization.

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    Kirsten Grieshaber / AP

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  • Germany slides deeper into budget crisis. Here’s what you need to know

    Germany slides deeper into budget crisis. Here’s what you need to know

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    German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (C), Finance Minister Christian Lindner (R) and Economy Minister Robert Habeck give statements to the media following the weekly government cabinet meeting on November 15, 2023 in Berlin, Germany.

    Sean Gallup | Getty Images News | Getty Images

    Germany’s budget is in trouble.

    Last week, the constitutional court ruled that it was unlawful to re-allocate unused debt originally designated for emergency Covid-19 pandemic funding to current spending plans.

    This week, the finance ministry froze spending across all ministries.

    But that could be just the tip of the iceberg as financial woes could lead to political ones, and even potentially endanger the future of Berlin’s coalition government.

    Germany didn’t get to this point overnight, however — in ways, the roots of the current crisis even predate the pandemic. And that is because of Germany’s so-called debt brake.

    A long time in the making

    Enacted in 2009, the debt brake limits how much debt the government can take on, and dictates the maximum size of the federal government’s structural budget deficit. The rules say it can be no bigger than 0.35 percent of Germany’s annual GDP.

    Since the global financial crisis, the debt brake has been the cornerstone of German fiscal policy.

    But then, the Covid-19 pandemic happened. The government took on emergency debt to try to stem the impact the pandemic had on its budget through a temporary debt brake suspension.

    As it turned out, the extra funding wasn’t actually needed. And so, the current coalition government decided to re-allocate it to finance policies aimed at climate change and a greener, more sustainable economy.

    Constitutional or not?

    Germany’s opposition was not happy about the re-allocation and eventually took the matter to Germany’s constitutional court. Last week, the verdict came in and, in a blow to the government, the court confirmed that the emergency funding was not allowed to be used for policy plans unrelated to the pandemic.

    The government appeared somewhat unprepared for this verdict and was left fumbling for answers when questioned by colleagues and the press.

    Some observers (and several Green party members), have suggested that the climate crisis is as much of an emergency as the pandemic. But the court’s ruling stands, and Germany’s budget now has a 60-billion-euro ($65 billion) hole.

    The government has since scrambled to figure out its financial plans, and earlier this week German media reported that the finance ministry had more or less shut down the possibility of any additional spending that hasn’t already been scheduled for 2023.

    A divided coalition

    A major factor in the government’s dilemma is the range of political positions the three coalition partners hold.

    There’s the Greens, who were the key instigators behind the climate policy plans that are now at risk and are therefore heavily attached to its success. Then the SPD, the social democrats, who would be content with making the debt brake more lenient or increase taxes. And the FDP, the Free Democratic Party, who control the finance ministry and don’t want higher taxes or higher debt.

    Germany, EU heavily impacted by trade tensions: Baker McKenzie

    But a full break up of the government is unlikely, according to a research note published by Eurasia Group directors Jan Techau, Mujtaba Rahman and Jens Larsen.

    “Government stability is not in question, and the coalition is still likely to complete its full term,” they said.

    “All three parties would face devastating losses in the (unlikely) case of snap elections, diminishing their appetite for breaking out of the current arrangement. No obvious new majority is possible in the current parliament,” they said.

    Any solutions?

    Solutions are still few and far between, especially ones that can be applied in the immediate term, and the government is still working on plans to readjust spending and funding that coalition partners can agree on.

    And in the long term?

    “An obvious way out would be to change the constitution,” Berenberg Bank’s Chief Economist Holger Schmieding said in a note. This would require a new consensus with at least some of the opposition politicians needed to reach the required two-thirds majority, he explained, which would mean political deals and sacrifices on divisive topics such as asylum rules.

    “For now, such a deal seems unlikely. But after the next election in September 2025, a (new) government that would once again need to include parts of the centre-right and centre-left may perhaps strike such a deal,” Schmieding said.

    Reforming the debt brake after the next General Election is also one of the paths ahead that Citi economists Christian Schulz, Giada Giani and Benjamin Nabarro foresee. They also note that long-term changes to the way the German government is funded could be ahead.

    “We expect the ruling to drive the government to build actual cash reserves in normal times as well as during emergencies, which would allow it to address long-term consequences of crises without breaching the debt break,” they wrote in a research note.

    And finally, the bar for what constitutes an “emergency” (and therefore allows for a suspension of the debt brake) could be lowered — and eventually perhaps even include the climate crisis.

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